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2302. Why Member State Engagement Needs to Be at the Heart of UN80 to Unlock Its Success
- Author:
- Thibault Camelli and Fernando Marani
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Six months after its launch, the Secretary-General’s “UN80” reform initiative is still widely seen as lacking meaningful and systematic member state engagement. This perception has created distrust among delegations, weakened political traction, and hampered momentum as the Secretary-General’s term is drawing to a close. As the world leaders gathered in New York for the “General Debate” at the end of September to launch the 80th session of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, very few actually mentioned reform. More striking even, the few who did lamented a process they essentially regarded as technocratic, administrative, and internal to the Secretariat. Without a clear role for delegations, permanent representatives, and capitals, the process risks lacking legitimacy and member states’ ownership. The main challenge is the absence of deliberate design. The fragmented UN governance—across mandates, committees, boards, and subsidiary bodies—results in an already arcane system, not unusual for UN Reform, but challenging for delegations to navigate. However, it is not inevitable. Entry points exist to anchor reform legitimacy, align processes, and mobilize capitals. Experience from previous cycles, from the 2005 World Summit follow-up to the 2017 repositioning of the UN development system, shows that reforms only gained traction when member states were explicitly engaged through regular political dialogues, articulated with a strong political leadership from the Secretariat. Strategic adjustments are both urgent and feasible. This paper proposes a member state engagement toolkit across four dimensions: substance, scope, modalities, and dynamics. Recommendations include appointing permanent representatives as focal points, creating light coordination mechanisms, convening regular cross-regional dialogues and feedback loops, and empowering decision-shapers through targeted support and structured briefings. Such measures would not only enhance ownership but also reduce political risk for the Secretary-General by spreading accountability across the membership. The window for recalibration is narrow but real. In the immediate aftermath of High-Level Week launching the 80th session of the General Assembly, there is still time to build shared ownership of the UN80 reform. Credible engagement is not just a procedural improvement but a political necessity. Without it, the initiative risks being seen as Secretariat-driven, reinforcing doubts about whether the UN can apply to itself the same principles it promotes to others. To address these risks, this paper sets out a practical toolkit of 10 recommendations for strengthening member state engagement in UN80. The recommendations are structured across four dimensions (substance, scope, modalities, and dynamics). A distinction was also made between measures that require Secretariat action and those that depend on the authority of the President of the General Assembly and member states. Taken together, they outline both immediate adjustments for the UN80 cycle and longer-term reforms to embed engagement more systematically. Table 1 below summarizes these recommendations. To operationalize these 10 recommendations beyond the four dimensions that helped identify them, we reframed them into three overarching priorities that capture the essential conditions for reform to succeed: Ensure transparent information flows: information is the foundation, as predictable updates and clear pathways allow delegations and capitals to prepare and engage. Mobilize political leadership: leadership is the driver, as permanent representatives and capitals must convert information into political traction and coherence. Sustain effective oversight: oversight is the guarantor, as decision-shapers require tools to monitor implementation and maintain accountability. Read together, these three priorities provide a coherent logic to ensure effective member states engagement, and a simple structure for assessing whether UN80 is on track.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Governance, Reform, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2303. Towards Effective Prevention: A Strategic Approach to Addressing the Underlying Causes of Violence and the UN’s Rol
- Author:
- Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Understanding the impact of prevention efforts is a key focus of this year’s Peacebuilding Architecture Review (PBAR). However, measuring this impact has historically been challenging, particularly due to the difficulty of assessing what did not happen (e.g., the outbreak of conflict or violence). This paper outlines an approach pioneered with support from NYU’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC) by developing an analytical tool for practitioners and decision-makers. The first section examines how measuring changes in risk and protective factors can help national actors assess their vulnerabilities and strengths. It then explores how member states, through the PBAR, can enhance the United Nation (UN) peacebuilding architecture to better support national and local actors in identifying and addressing these factors. In particular, integrating this risk and protective factors approach into national prevention strategies can be critical in ensuring their effectiveness.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacebuilding, and Violence Prevention
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2304. Managing Peace Operations: How to Exit the Groundhog Day Time Loop of Peace Operations Reform
- Author:
- Eugene Chen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- United Nations (UN) peace operations currently face a crisis of confidence. No large mission has been launched in over a decade, existing missions struggle to implement their mandates, and the UN is increasingly marginalized from political processes. Although geopolitical divisions are a factor, the structures, processes, and mindsets of the Secretariat are also to blame. Despite successive attempts at reform over the years, challenges identified over numerous reviews in recent decades persist. This report examines why previous reform initiatives have floundered. It then examines four persistent challenges affecting peace operations today—the erosion of the primacy of politics, the distinction between peacekeeping operations and special political missions, templated mandates, and the absence of meaningful accountability for military and police performance—to identify why these problems exist and what practical measures can be taken by member states and the Secretariat to overcome them.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2305. How the Multilateral Development Banks Complement the UN Peacebuilding Architecture in Preventing Conflict and Violence
- Author:
- Natalie Briggs, Joris de de Mooij, and Betty N. Wainaina
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- International Financial Institutions (IFIs), particularly the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), play a crucial role in supporting global peacebuilding efforts. These institutions provide the financial resources and technical expertise necessary to address the underlying causes of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) in vulnerable regions. This policy brief aims to examine how MDBs complement the peacebuilding architecture of the United Nations (UN) and what entry points exist for strengthening partnerships towards preventing violence and conflict in the context of the 2025 Peacebuilding Architecture Review. It is based on desk research and expert consultations with four of the MDBs, including the World Bank, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank and Islamic Development Bank.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacebuilding, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and International Financial Institutions (IFIs)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2306. Unusual Suspects: Overlooked Avenues for the Prevention of Recruitment Into Non-State Armed Groups
- Author:
- Joanne Richards
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- When discussing why individuals join non-state armed groups, practitioners often refer to factors such as poverty, unemployment, and ideological indoctrination. As a result, many recruitment prevention efforts focus on counter-narratives and job creation. In contrast, this policy brief highlights three factors linked to recruitment that are often overlooked: situational avoidance, defection from non-state armed groups, and sensation seeking. These factors open up creative avenues for the prevention of voluntary and/or forced recruitment, including opportunities for situational prevention, links to the prevention of gender-based violence (GBV), and programs for non-violent sensation seeking. Practitioners should examine these (and other) overlooked factors and incorporate them into national strategies and action plans. They should also explore links between recruitment prevention efforts and programs that provide support to ex-combatants.
- Topic:
- Recruitment, Non State Actors, Violence Prevention, Peacebuilding, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2307. Israel's Attacks on Iran's Nuclear Facilities: Goodbye to Economic Sanctions?
- Author:
- Amos Nadan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Prof. Amos Nadan evaluates the Iran-Israel war in light of past attempts to use economic sanctions as a tool of coercion against Iran.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Nuclear Power, Coercion, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
2308. Critical Minerals, Rare Earth Elements, and the Challenges Ahead for the United States
- Author:
- Karl Friedhoff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA)
- Abstract:
- The race to secure critical minerals (CM) and rare earth elements (REE) has become an area of increasing geopolitical competition, with China and the United States the two key players. The United States is currently behind in that competition. It is being out-invested, out-innovated, and out-educated. Not only is Washington losing, but it is falling further behind by undermining the alliances and cooperative networks that should play a crucial role in overcoming the existing structural deficit. At the same time, current US policy is weakening the domestic green energy market that relies on CMREE inputs and drives technological innovation and investment as much of the world pushes ahead with the energy transition. Solely market-driven solutions are unlikely to materialize to address this challenge in the United States. After all, it was this approach over at least the last two decades that helped to create the current imbalance. The central challenge for the United States, then, is how to build a foundation from which market forces can once again play a leading role in driving financing, research, and labor in the sector. The interlocking web of policies to build this foundation is complex. To be done right, each policy requires others surrounding for support. Completing the puzzle will require broad-spectrum cooperation between government and business. This will include a renewed focus on industrial policy and require setting explicit goals for the United States and its partners to create secure supply chains. This process is not without challenges and will inevitably produce local, and potentially national, opposition. The refineries required to diversify where CMREE are processed will create environmental hazards as well as stress local water resources, among other vulnerabilities. This set of policies will also demand heavy investment in material sciences to develop new technologies that can reduce and replace CMREE inputs where possible. Pursuing these policies will necessitate much deeper investment in education and training to create a workforce capable of meeting the demands in the CMREE mining, processing, and materials science sector. Even with extensive government support, there is no guarantee that private investment will materialize to sustain the industry. China’s virtual cornering of a vast swath of the market means much of the sector does not operate along traditional axes of supply and demand, discouraging private investment in the process. This makes it more likely that long-term government support in the form of subsidies, tax incentives, and price controls will be required. That puts such funding and support at the mercy of shifting political winds. Under previous US administrations, a wide-ranging challenge like CMREE would produce the requisite policy papers calling for deeper coordination, cooperation, and integration between the United States and a consortium of like-minded countries. Some of that cooperation may yet be possible, but with a US administration that views the world through a zero-sum lens, it becomes less likely each day. Rather than coordination, it will be absolute dollar amounts that drive cooperation. That approach may be successful in the short term in establishing the building blocks of a secure CMREE supply chain. But its longer-term prospects are uncertain. This report and its policy recommendations are based on discussions from two seminars and multiple conversations across several countries and continents with policy analysts, industry professionals, and government officials. The first seminar was conducted in cooperation with the Perth USAsia Centre in Perth, Western Australia. This seminar brought together participants from around the Indo-Pacific to share their views on how allies and partners could coordinate their efforts. The second seminar was held in Chicago at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs with industry professionals, minerals practitioners, and academic experts from across the United States. A full list of participants can be found in the appendix.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Rare earth elements (REEs), Critical Minerals, and Global Economy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
2309. National Action Plans as Tools for Effective Small Arms Control: Lessons from West Africa
- Author:
- Luc Chounet-Cambas, Alizée Henry, and Julien Joly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Guidance provided at the Fourth Review Conference of the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms and Light Weapons in June 2024 underscored the importance of aligning national action plans (NAPs) with sustainable development, security, and gender-responsive policies, in addition to the need for inter-agency collaboration and the inclusion of non-governmental stakeholders in small arms control efforts. While this shift signals a transformative paradigm in small arms control—moving beyond a compliance-driven model rooted in international norms and standards toward a more integrated approach that positions arms control as a tool to advance national objectives in human security, development, and governance—it raises a critical question: how can NAPs be effectively leveraged to ensure this alignment? National Action Plans as Tools for Effective Small Arms Control: Lessons from West Africa, commissioned by the Mines Advisory Group, is a Briefing Paper that examines the current state of practice of NAPs on small arms and light weapons in West Africa, their impact, and existing opportunities to enhance their effectiveness and potential in integrating small arms control into broader public policy frameworks that address development and security concerns.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Weapons, and National Action Plan
- Political Geography:
- Africa and West Africa
2310. On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan
- Author:
- Joshua Craze
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- South Sudan is once again on the brink of war. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is bombing civilians and detaining the opposition, while foreign embassies close and evacuate staff. The Ugandan army has installed itself in Juba, the country’s capital, to assist Kiir’s regime’s suppression of the opposition. Both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are also now participating in the conflict inside South Sudan. While Kiir has appointed a successor, Benjamin Bol Mel, he may not have the political capital to take over. The current conflict may be a prelude for a much more destructive civil war. On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—examines what led South Sudan to delay elections scheduled for December 2024 and considers the likely ensuing civil war. It focuses on the place of the Tumaini Peace Initiative in South Sudan’s political compact, the effects of the war in Sudan on politics in the country, Kiir’s contested succession, and the violence scarring the region.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
2311. Open Markets: Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban
- Author:
- Manon Blancafort, Emile LeBrun, and Andrea Edoardo Varisco
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- More than three years after the Taliban’s takeover and its seizure of the previous regime’s weapons stockpiles, the de facto authorities have taken steps to exert control over arms and ammunition in the hands of rank-and-file fighters, civilians, and private businesses. Yet despite the recent legal restrictions and their enforcement efforts, informal arms commerce and trafficking continue, and involves both older weapons as well as materiel likely sourced from the equipment that had been delivered to the former Afghan National Defence and Security Forces. Open Markets: Documenting Arms Availability in Afghanistan under the Taliban—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Afghanistan project—reviews field investigations conducted from 2022 to 2024 into the availability and prices of small arms, light weapons, accessories, and ammunition at informal markets in the Afghanistan–Pakistan border areas, alongside qualitative research into arms proliferation dynamics.
- Topic:
- Taliban, Weapons, Arms Trade, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
2312. The Republic of Kadamol: A Portrait of the Rapid Support Forces at War
- Author:
- Joshua Craze and Raga Makawi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- After almost two years of war, Sudan is in the grip of a humanitarian and political catastrophe. A conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to devastate the country. In recent months, the RSF has lost ground, and its efforts to create a government seem likely to come to naught. But what is the RSF, and what can learning about the paramilitary organization tell us about the future of Sudan? The Republic of Kadamol: A Portrait of the Rapid Support Forces at War is a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project. Based on interviews on the ground and with RSF personnel, the paper offers an insight into RSF recruitment strategies, war aims, and command and control problems. To understand Sudan's future, it is indispensable to understand the RSF, and this paper is the first to give a synthetic analysis of the RSF since the war began.
- Topic:
- Security, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
2313. Autopsiadel asalto a la frontera de Ceuta en2021: entre lazona grisyla gestión de crisis
- Author:
- Luis de la Corte Ibáñez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses a significant incident that took place on the border of Ceuta between 17 and 19 May 2021, when more than 10,000 people entered the Spanish city from Morocco without authorisation, causing the most serious border crisis experienced in the city during the democratic era. The article begins with a diplomatic contextualisation of the crisis, linked to the deterioration of relations between Spain and Morocco, and sets out its immediate background. It then describes the development of the assault on the Ceuta border in all its relevant aspects. The incident is then analysed from three perspectives. The first offers a strategic reading of the border crisis, based on the hypothesis that the crisis should be interpreted as the result of an operation promoted by the Kingdom of Morocco, within the framework of an escalation in the grey zone, with the aim of influencing Spanish foreign policy. The second perspective offers a detailed analysis of the different phases and dimensions of the border crisis management process. This analysis is based on the hypothesis that, at the time of the crisis, the Spanish state did not have specific mechanisms and protocols in place to deal with incidents that could jeopardise the integrity of either of the two Spanish cities in North Africa, Ceuta or Melilla. The third perspective applies two approaches from the social sciences: the black swan and the gray rhino. The article concludes with an assessment of the diplomatic consequences of the border crisis and a reflection on its strategic implications for Spanish security policy.
- Topic:
- Security, Crisis Management, Borders, Gray Zone, and Irregular Migration
- Political Geography:
- Spain and Morocco
2314. Ceuta y Melilla: ¿casus belli España-Marruecos?
- Author:
- Daniel Sansó-Rubert Pascual
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Spanish-Moroccan relations have traditionally been characterized by a complex relationship from a political, geographical, economic, social, and strategic perspective. This relationship is often misunderstood and not always peaceful, especially in relation to sovereignty and territory, generating crises and tensions. Specifically, Morocco, practically since its establishment in 1956, has maintained a demanding and unilateral position toward Spain regarding Ceuta and Melilla, as well as the other Spanish territories located on the North African coast. To the question of whether a military confrontation between Spain and Morocco over these territories is feasible, the answer must be that, although highly unlikely, it is by no means an impossible scenario. Therefore, in the face of an act of Moroccan aggression, the legal response is unquestionable: the legitimate defense of the territory under international law would allow Spain to repel an illegitimate armed attack, using force and invoking the solidarity clauses that protect it as a member of the European Union and NATO.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Defense Policy, Lawfare, Hybrid Warfare, Armed Conflict, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, North Africa, and Morocco
2315. La inmigración en Ceuta y Melilla: más allá del fenómeno coyuntural
- Author:
- Enrique Ávila Pérez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Irregular immigration is one of the main challenges facing Western societies, but there is no continuity in national governments to establish effective policies, possibly because of its ease of manipulation by different actors, both State and NGO. Due to its geographical location, Spain and especially the Autonomous Cities of Ceuta and Melilla, are points of mass arrival of irregular immigrants, mainly of Maghreb and sub-Saharan origin.
- Topic:
- Immigration, NGOs, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Maghreb, Sahel, Ceuta, and Melilla
2316. Ceuta: dos escenarios bélicos que desafían la política militar y de defensa española
- Author:
- Juan Carlos Fernández-Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- The threat to Spanish sovereignty over its African territory is a reality connected to regional security challenges and the military issue. Therefore, in this document, we will explore the various military scenarios we consider most relevant to highlight its nature.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Islamic State, War, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Spain, Morocco, North Africa, and Europe
2317. Ceuta y Melilla:aspectos militares alo largo de la historia
- Author:
- Luis Feliu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- This essay, dedicated to the military aspects related to the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, includes, after a necessary introduction, the historical background of the cities and also of Morocco to understand the framework of their historical claims, which are mainly the reason for the permanent military presence in the cities.
- Topic:
- History, Rif War, Politics, NATO, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Morocco and North Africa
2318. Global Terrorism Index 2025
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- Terrorism remains a persistent global threat, with 2024 marking another year of shifting patterns and evolving challenges with the geographic reach of terrorism spreading. The number of countries experiencing at least one terrorist incident increased from 58 to 66, the most countries affected since 2018. In 2024, more countries deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism, while only 34 showed improvement. Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organisation in 2024, responsible for 1,805 deaths across 22 countries. The four major terrorist organisations, IS, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and al-Shabaab continued to increase their activity, with deaths attributed to these groups increasing by 11 per cent to 4,204. In 2023, these groups were active in 29 countries which increased to 30 countries in 2024. In 2024, 36 per cent of terrorist attacks were not claimed by an organisation. IEP has developed a machine learning model to assign these incidents to likely groups. The analysis found that deaths attributed to IS would have been 58 per cent higher, while those linked to JNIM would have been 176 per cent higher. This underscores the challenges in accurately assessing the impact of different terrorist organisations. In 2024, deaths from terrorism fell to 7,555, representing a 13 per cent decline from the previous year. This reduction was entirely due to the large spike in the prior year from the Hamas October 7th attack, otherwise deaths would have been approximately the same. The number of terrorist attacks also declined, falling by three per cent to 3,492. The drop in incidents was primarily driven by an 85 per cent decrease in terrorist activity in Myanmar. Excluding Myanmar, global terrorist attacks would have increased by eight per cent. In the West, lone actor terrorism is on the rise with terrorist attacks increasing from 32 to 52 in 2024. These attacks are typically carried out by youths, often in their teens, who have no formal ties to terrorist organisations. Instead, they become radicalised through online content, constructing personal ideologies that often blend conflicting viewpoints influenced via access to fringe forums, gaming environments, encrypted messaging apps and the dark web. Because there are no affiliations, it means these types of attacks are difficult for intelligence agencies to track. Social media algorithms also accentuate biases, pushing disaffected youth towards more radicalised content. In Europe, one in five persons arrested for terrorism is legally classified as a child. In Europe, terrorist incidents doubled to 67, including attacks by IS and Hamas. The resurgence of attacks was particularly notable in seven Western countries - Sweden, Australia, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland, with Germany being the worst ranked nation at 27th on the Index. There are now seven Western countries ranked amongst the 50 most impacted countries on the GTI. Meanwhile, in the US, antisemitic and Islamophobic hate crimes escalated sharply following the start of the Gaza war, with FBI-recorded incidents targeting the Jewish community rising by 270 per cent in just two months. Similar patterns emerged in Europe and Australia, where attacks on synagogues were reported throughout the year. Terrorism in the Sahel has increased significantly, with deaths rising nearly tenfold since 2019. In 2024, the Sahel accounted for 51 per cent of all terrorism deaths, while overall conflict deaths in the region exceeded 25,000 for the first time since the inception of the Index. Of these, 3,885 were attributed to terrorism. Terrorism deaths here are now ten times higher than in 2019. The Sahel remains the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024 with the number of countries affected increasing. Five of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are in this region. Although Burkina Faso remains the most affected country, both deaths and attacks declined, falling by 21 and 57 per cent respectively, however the country is still responsible for a fifth of all terrorism deaths globally. Niger highlights how fragile progress in reducing terrorism deaths can be. In 2024, the country recorded the largest increase in terrorism deaths globally, rising by 94 per cent to a total of 930, reversing previous improvements from 2022 when it had the second largest improvement. Niger’s example may mean that the improvements in Burkina Faso are transitory. Geopolitical changes continue to shape security dynamics across the Sahel. The Alliance of Sahelian States, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has moved away from the West, instead strengthening ties with Russia and China. This shift, along with the bloc’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, has created opportunities for groups such as JNIM to expand their activities into coastal West Africa. Togo recorded its worst year for terrorism since the inception of the Index, reflecting the broader spread of terrorist activity beyond the Sahel’s traditional hotspots.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Youth, Threat Assessment, and Lone Wolf Attacks
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2319. Lone Wolf and Youth Terrorism
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- Over the last 15 years, the nature of terrorism in the West has undergone a noticeable shift. Since the mid-2010s, most terrorist attacks in the West have been carried out by individuals who are not affiliated with a particular group, do not have a clear ideology, or who pledged allegiance to a group but did not have direct ties to any existing members. While large-scale, highly coordinated plots carried out by recognised organisations have not vanished, fatal incidents increasingly originate from individuals acting on their own initiative, often referred to as “lone wolves”. These attackers may subscribe to a particular ideology or interact with extremist communities online, yet they do not necessarily receive formal in-person training or direct organisational resources. Historically, lone terrorist scenarios are not new and date back to ancient times. The period between 1878 and 1934 was the era of anarchist terrorism where most actors were lone wolves because of the rejection of organised leadership. One of the earliest prominent lone wolf attacks was the assassination of US President McKinley in 1901. What distinguishes the current wave is the way in which rapid radicalisation can occur online, particularly through social media, which allows for easy access to terrorist propaganda, and the ability to self-organise and commit violent acts with minimal face-to-face contact. Additionally, growing involvement of disaffected young people amplifies the risks of lone wolf terrorism. In some countries in the West, such as the UK, one out of every five terror suspects is under 18. Cultural alienation, easy exposure to violent propaganda and the increase in youth mental health issues, all contribute to increasing the risk of young people becoming involved in violent extremism. In addition, minors often trigger fewer warnings within security frameworks, enjoy certain privacy protections, and, if apprehended, may be subject to less severe legal penalties. Together, these factors have produced a changing threat landscape, which requires rethinking conventional understandings of extremist violence and how best to prevent it.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Youth, Ideology, Recruitment, and Lone Wolf Attacks
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2320. Official Development Assistance
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- Amidst rapidly shifting geopolitics, major donors such as the United States, the United Kingdom and European Union (EU) countries have announced significant reductions to their annual Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitments. In 2023, contributions from these countries accounted for 63 per cent of all ODA flows. A key driver of the current situation has been the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has led to unprecedented aid allocations to Ukraine. In 2023, Ukraine received $37 billion in ODA, equating to 14 per cent of all ODA disbursed in that year. In addition to ODA, military aid allocations to date have totalled $128 billion. Given the current climate, this report presents economic projections under various scenarios, indicating that ODA could decline by 20 to 40 per cent in the coming years. This would result in reductions of between $50 and $115 billion less aid relative to 2023 levels. In such scenarios, sub-Saharan Africa, MENA and Latin America could see cuts of 30-40 per cent in their ODA inflows, exacerbating risks of economic downturns, political instability, and humanitarian crises. The economies that will be most affected by ODA cuts are also in the least peaceful countries in the world. Most at risk include Afghanistan, Yemen, Central African Republic, and Somalia. Existing and emerging donors are unlikely to be able to fill the gap. Countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye contribute less than five per cent to the international aid system. With US support for Ukraine in question, EU countries may need to further increase their contributions to Ukraine and boost domestic military spending. Calls to raise EU military spending to five per cent of GDP could require an additional $560 billion annually, diverting funds from other sectors. In a climate of shrinking resources and rising demand, there is an urgent need for reforms that enhance the efficiency, transparency, and data-driven targeting of ODA. Investing in robust monitoring and evaluation systems is essential to ensure that limited aid funds yield maximum developmental and economic benefits.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Donors, Development Assistance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2321. Determinants of Unemployment Duration in India
- Author:
- Roshan Kannan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- Unemployment is one of the key macroeconomic variables used to assess the performance of an economy. However, there is a bias towards conceptualizing unemployment solely through its predominant measure of rates. Considering that rates alone do not reflect labor market conditions, especially in developing countries, it is crucial to include unemployment duration in analyzing labor market efficacy and the larger economy. This paper utilizes longitudinal data from CMIE to understand the determinants of unemployment duration through an OLS linear regression and survival analysis. It finds that the groups that experience longer spells of unemployment are young and old individuals, the highly educated, and upper caste individuals. Nonparametric survival analysis is also employed to account for censoring through the hazard and survival function. This model also finds that duration dependence is non-monotonic with individuals experiencing high initial re-employment probabilities before experiencing a decline in their hazard rates. However, analysis of re-employmentwages and occupation indicates a positive association with unemployment duration which indicates potential benefits to extended job search.
- Topic:
- Employment, Economy, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and Wages
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
2322. Global Peace Index 2025
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the 19th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. It uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators to measure the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. The 2025 GPI finds that global peacefulness continues to decline and that many of the leading factors that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of WWII. More countries are increasing their levels of militarisation against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, increasing conflict, the breakup of traditional alliances and rising economic uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Geopolitics, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2323. Global Peace Index Briefing 2025
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- The 2025 Global Peace Index reveals a fundamental reshaping of the global order not seen since the Cold War. It details a record decline in global peacefulness as rising conflict deaths, accelerating geopolitical tensions, and the erosion of social cohesion are driving ‘The Great Fragmentation’. The world is at an inflection point. While the number of conflicts is higher than at any time since World War II, they are also becoming unwinnable and increasingly expensive, yet global investment in conflict prevention have dramatically reduced. The last decade has seen major shifts in influence as middle level powers become more assertive within their respective regions. This has contributed to a record 78 countries being involved in conflicts beyond their borders. Combined with major power competition, the proliferation of asymmetric warfare technologies and mounting debt burdens in the most vulnerable states in the most fragile economies, the prospect for conflict has never been higher.
- Topic:
- Economics, Geopolitics, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2324. Mexico Peace Index 2025
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the 12th edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis, and estimates of the economic impact of violence. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five major indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 0.7 percent in 2024. This was the fifth straight year of modest improvement, following four years of steep deteriorations. Last year, 18 states improved in their peace scores and 14 states deteriorated.
- Topic:
- Economy, Borders, Violence, Peace, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
2325. Global Terrorism Index Briefing 2025
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- The twelfth annual edition of the Global Terrorism Index highlights that terrorism remains a persistent global threat. The number of countries experiencing at least one terrorist incident increased from 58 to 66, the most countries affected since 2018. In 2024, more countries deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism, while only 34 showed improvement.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Sahel and Global Focus
2326. China Maritime Report No. 44: Dirty But Preparing to Fight: VADM Li Pengcheng's Downfall Amid Increasing PLAN Readiness
- Author:
- Christopher Sharman and Andrew S. Erickson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Although corruption runs deep in the PLA Navy (PLAN) and across China’s armed forces, disciplinary-related removals appear not to have a major impact on naval capabilities or operations. The fight against corruption within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has General Secretary Xi Jinping’s attention and appears to be picking up steam for 2025. The Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) issued a report on 25 December 2024 identifying Vice Admiral Li Pengcheng (李鹏程) as one of eight NPC deputies removed for “serious violations of discipline and the law.” Li was an officer on the fast track and identified early in his career by PLA press as one to watch. He had the unprecedented distinction of having command of two separate Gulf of Aden anti-piracy escort task force deployments, extensive international maritime experience, and involvement in some of the PLAN’s most significant international navy accomplishments. Li’s career and his operations in the Mediterranean Sea had the personal attention of Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman Xi. Vice Admiral Li Pengcheng replaced Vice Admiral Ju Xinchun (鞠新春) as the Commander of the Southern Theater Command (STC) Navy roughly a year ago. Admiral Ju suffered Admiral Li’s same fate. Comparing and contrasting two consecutive PLAN STC commanders serving in the same capacity, sacked one year apart, provides a revealing dataset to analyze the impact of sacking the commander, and of corruption more broadly, on PLAN operational capabilities and how they affect the force. The PLAN may be playing high-stakes musical chairs with its leadership, but it has a deep enough talent pool to do so without prohibitive problems. When one leader is purged, another is on deck. Politicized corruption investigations and their imposition of costs are fundamentally a speedbump rather than a showstopper. Regardless of corruption’s pervasive persistence, PLAN operational capabilities continue to improve, and cutting-edge, lethal weapons systems regularly enter service. Corruption may contribute to inefficiencies, but it does not curtail PLAN advances. Related removals are neither an indicator of prohibitive incompetence nor a self-defeating constraint on operational capabilities.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Leadership, Navy, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Ju Xinchun, Southern Theater Command, and Readiness
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
2327. China Maritime Report No. 45: The PLA Navy's Hospital Ship Fleet: Concerns, Developments, and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Jonathan Robinson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- The PRC’s hospital ship ecosystem comprises at least 17 vessels. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operates 13 ships, while the state ship building sector has developed (or is developing) at least four civilian hospital ships for domestic and foreign clients. PLAN hospital ships serve two main missions: (1) Provide medical support to PLA personnel, especially those stationed around the mainland or on Chinese-occupied islands in the South China Sea. (2) Support maritime global health engagement, chiefly through missions conducted by the Peace Ark hospital ship. Almost a third (21) of the Peace Ark’s 71 port visits since 2010 have been in Melanesia and East Africa. A further fifth (12) of all visits have been to ports in the northeast Indian Ocean and West Africa. The launch of the Silk Road Ark in 2023 may increase the PRC’s maritime global health engagement capacity in the coming years. In the event of a conflict, some PLAN hospital ships would not be in compliance with international conventions on the proper identification and uses of these vessels. They lack the required markings, potentially possess armaments, or are not exclusively used as hospital ships. This could complicate the decision making of China’s opponents, especially during wartime. China’s private sector construction of hospital ships could potentially provide the PRC with the skills and knowhow to rapidly expand the PLAN’s hospital ship fleet during a conflict. U.S. Navy planners should consider how the PLAN may use its hospital ships in a conflict and how these vessels may link with other humanitarian activities seen in these settings, such as maritime humanitarian corridors, exchange of prisoners, or civilian humanitarian capabilities.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Navy, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Hospital Ship
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
2328. Climate Resilience in Small Island States: Realizing the Major Macroeconomic Benefits from Adaptation Investments
- Author:
- Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
- Abstract:
- Our recent research on the state and trends of climate adaptation finance needs in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) highlights that the total cost of adaptation for all SIDS is very small in the global context but very large for individual island nations.1 The research highlights how exceeding the 1.5°C warming level will have catastrophic consequences for SIDS. In this policy brief, we review the large and increasing climate risks faced by island nations, the urgent need to close the financing gap, and the potential of the blue economy. We then offer recommendations for increasing resilience across all sectors in SIDS.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Climate Finance, International Development, Resilience, Blue Economy, and Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2329. Come and (Re)discover China: Staunchly Patriotic, Sincerely Religious, and Eager to Further Engage with the World
- Author:
- Bart Dessein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- While elderly women and men are happily singing and dancing on the shores of Hangzhou’s famous West Lake, grandparents are taking their grandchildren out for a stroll and a boat trip on the lake. Buddhist monasteries in the vicinity of Ningbo, a coastal city south of Shanghai that has recently been elevated to a ‘new first-tier city,’ are teeming with monks who have retreated from every-day life and devote themselves to the word of the Buddha. On a daily basis, tens of thousands of ordinary citizens visit Putuoshan, an insular sanctuary just off the coast of Ningbo, devoted to Avalokitesvara, the Buddhist god(ess) of compassion. In a small place in the neighborhood of Ningbo, the local monastery has newly built the ‘Avalokitesvara’s Dharma-world,’ a temple complex in full marble, ornamented with precious stones and gold leaf, venerating the same Buddhist god(ess). Also in early morning Beijing, hundreds of people are queuing up, waiting for the gates of the Lama temple to open, so that they can enter to pay their respect to the Buddhist deities. Meanwhile, the number of European tourists – despite the extended visa free travel possibilities of up to one month for many European citizens – can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Even in cities such as Shanghai where, judging from the attendance in the breakfast room of an international hotel, the foreign guests are of Indian or Near-Eastern descent, and where shops that have closed down business and commercial spaces for rent in newly built high-rise buildings catch the eye. Also in Hangzhou (equally a new first-tier city), top-end restaurants and small street stalls alike are waiting for customers. This picture is repeated in Anyang, a provincial town in Henan Province, where waitresses and waiters brave the freezing cold to lure customers into their restaurants.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Religion, and Tourism
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia-Pacific
2330. NATO: The Damage Is Done – So Think Big
- Author:
- Sven Biscop
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- For seventy-six years, NATO tried to prove Lord Palmerston wrong. Now it turns out that he was right after all: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow”. The second Trump Administration behaves as Europe’s rival, not as its ally. It is too late for mere damage control. Placating Trump will not work either: unrestrained, he will just go further and further. Europeans must present the US with a clear idea of which NATO they want, and what they will invest to get it. That is the way to salvage the Alliance at the NATO Summit in The Hague in June. The damage is done. Because even if the US were to radically alter course and recommit fully to NATO as we knew it, everyone now knows that a next President may change it back again. The US cannot treat NATO the way it treats the agreements on climate change: it joins, it leaves, it rejoins, and leaves again. Deterrence demands constancy, or there is no deterrence. Unless it is actually tested in war, Article 5 will now never be as credible as before. This has already affected the global balance of power: adversaries who perceive that the US may not stand by Europe may be emboldened and become more aggressive. Against Europe, but also against the US, whose erratic economic and foreign policies Europe will not follow.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
2331. Moldova’s EU Path: Between Moscow’s Shadow and Brussels’ Promises
- Author:
- Reinhold Brender
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- In the ongoing confrontation between the European Union and Russia, the Republic of Moldova occupies a critical—though often overlooked—position. While not as militarily pivotal as Ukraine, Moldova’s struggle is no less consequential: it is a contest over national orientation and the future of the European order. Moldova’s plural identity makes it especially vulnerable to Russian interference, complicating its EU accession process and straining internal cohesion. The country’s trajectory mirrors the broader dilemma facing post-Soviet states still defining themselves amid renewed geopolitical rivalry between East and West. Moldova’s future will depend on the decisions of its leaders and electorate, the course of the war in Ukraine, and the EU’s readiness to honour its commitment to membership. The 28 September 2025 parliamentary elections will reveal whether Moldova’s leadership retains a popular mandate to pursue the European path. This policy brief outlines key aspects of the current situation and sets out how the EU can help safeguard the integrity of Moldova’s upcoming elections and support its pro-European trajectory amid heightened geopolitical risk.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Foreign Interference, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Moldova, and Eastern Europe
2332. Summits and Sanctions, War and Peace: Is the EU Still in the Game?
- Author:
- Sven Biscop
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- As I set out for Beijing in early July, to teach my annual summer course on grand strategy and great powers, I knew in advance what all my Chinese interlocutors would make fun of: Mark Rutte’s and Donald Trump’s embarrassing “Daddy moment” at the NATO Summit in The Hague, epitomising European subservience to the United States. While I was still in Beijing, the EU-China Summit produced the expected non-result. That didn’t seem to bother my Chinese contacts, or so they pretended. And shortly after returning to Brussels, Ursula von der Leyen and Trump announced the EU-US trade deal – a bad deal whose main merit is that it avoided an even worse one. Even the EU’s claim to be a strong and unified economic player, as opposed to its often divided diplomatic and military posture, begins to sound hollow. One has to wonder: is the EU still in the game of great power politics?
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Grand Strategy, Trade, and Great Powers
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
2333. Fit for the Future? A Review of the Belgian Defence’s 2025 Strategic Vision
- Author:
- Wannes Verstraete
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The new Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), Alexus G. Grynkewic, said in July 2025 that NATO should prepare for the threat of two simultaneous wars in Europe and the Pacific within two years (2027), instigated and potentially coordinated by Russia and the People’s Republic of China. This devastating and near-future scenario should drive Allied Defence policymaking with a single goal in mind, namely deterring such an outcome, and if deterrence fails, defending Allied interests. General Grynkewic also mentioned during his confirmation hearing at the United States Senate Armed Services Committee that he will “conduct a 90-day assessment to evaluate” the priorities for the U.S. European Command (USEUCOM). This ongoing assessment will be a key element to determine the evolution of the USEUCOM force posture in the European theatre during the coming years.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belgium
2334. Semiconductors and Statecraft: Belgium’s Role in Europe’s Technological Sovereignty
- Author:
- Victor De Decker and Marcus Loiseau
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Belgium’s global role in semiconductors hinges not on scale but on control of a strategic chokepoint: upstream innovation. With imec at its centre, Belgium functions as Europe’s semiconductor R&D engine – but this asymmetric position leaves the country structurally exposed. Without manufacturing capacity, talent diversification, or broader ecosystem scaling, Belgium risks becoming a high-value subcontractor in a geopolitical and financial game it does not fully control. To remain indispensable – and not merely useful – Belgium must convert R&D dominance into strategic leverage, push for Chips Act reforms that close the EU’s coordination gaps, build scaling innovation ecosystems, and expand its influence within a fragmented European industrial policy landscape.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, European Union, Innovation, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- Europe
2335. From Syria to the Black Sea: Containing Russia, Partnering with Turkey?
- Author:
- Bernard Siman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The outcome of the Russo-Turkish power competition in Syria will impact the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea. This, in turn, will impact the outcome of any peace negotiations with Ukraine and its relative position in the Black Sea. The future of Syria very much matters for the EU, therefore. Because blunting Russia’s attempts at achieving dominance over the Black Sea will play an important role in Europe’s security. And because the Syrian coast is only 300KM from Cyprus, the EU’s southeastern most border. Syria is the EU’s neighbour for all intents and purposes. In Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea, Turkey and the EU finally have a key strategic objective in common.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Syria, and Black Sea
2336. BRICS+: an Odd Family of (un)Likely Frenemies
- Author:
- Bart Dessein and Jasper Roctus
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- On June 13, 2025, the government of Brazil, in its capacity as pro tempore BRICS(+) Chair, announced the formal admission of Vietnam as a partner country of the group. With this, Vietnam became the tenth BRICS+ partner country, after Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan had obtained this status in 2024. This Policy Brief aims to assess the significance of the BRICS+ framework as a whole, with particular emphasis on the role and positioning of Vietnam’s partnership within the context of the increasingly dynamic and contested geopolitical landscape that the European Union (EU) is presently faced with.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and BRICS
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Vietnam, and South America
2337. Silence in the Sahel does not Equal Stability
- Author:
- Nina Wilén
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Sahel is no longer on the frontpages. In the past few years – even in the past few months – the geopolitical context has changed radically. The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine understandably turned European attention to the East in 2022. The Israel – Palestine armed conflict which restarted in 2023 and has taken unprecedented proportions has also called for attention, while the last three years of Rwanda- supported rebel invasion in the East of the DRC recently caught the news. In more recent weeks, the new US administration’s deeply disturbing dismantling of national institutions and international order has predictably stolen the headlines. Yet, in the meantime the different crises which have plagued the Sahel over more than a decade are continuing and the situation is worsening. The military regimes which came to power in the latest coup wave in the Sahel region on the promise of quelling jihadist violence have not been able to deliver on this promise. Instead, jihadist groups are expanding across the region, with deadlier attacks against civilians in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, the three states which created the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) in 2023. The Sahel is today the region in the world which is the most affected by jihadist violence. The AES countries are also experiencing a deepening authoritarian turn, as the transitions to democratic elections and return to constitutional order have been stalled with continuous extensions of transitional period and repression against opposition voices. These developments are unfolding within a heavily restricted media landscape, where local independent and foreign journalists and news agencies are either silenced through repression or driven into exile, while civil society faces continued intimidation and oppression, including forced military recruitment, arbitrary arrests and in some cases summary executions. This article analyses the latest developments in the security and political sphere in the Sahel with a focus on the AES states. It examines the expansion of jihadist violence and assesses the political situation. It argues that despite the current geopolitical context and Europe’s decreasing influence, there is still a need for the EU and its member states to stay engaged. It is crucial to closely monitor developments in the region to better grasp the political and security landscape, and potential implications both within and beyond the African continent. This article is the first of a series of two analyzing the shifting political and security landscape in the Sahel. The next article will examine the AES countries’ shifting regional and international partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Authoritarianism, Political stability, Violence, Coup, and Salafi-Jihadism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
2338. Stepping up Engagement in the Sahel: Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf States
- Author:
- Nina Wilén
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the past five years, since the latest wave of coups began in 2020, states in the Sahel have strategically realigned and shifted external partnerships. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger suspended their security collaboration with their long-term ally, France, following their respective coups between 2020 and 2023, and demanded for the immediate withdrawal of French troops while advancing a new narrative of sovereignty. In 2023 Mali’s regime ousted the decade-long, 13,000 troops-strong UN peacekeeping mission in the country, MINUSMA, while Niger expelled the EU’s two security and defense missions, one of which had been deployed since 2012. A few months later, Niger also broke off a decade-long defense partnership with the US. In a second wave of expulsion, yet different in manner and context, Chad, Senegal and Ivory Coast also suspended military collaboration with France in 2024. This recent expulsion of Western and multilateral partners has been accompanied by a turn by Sahelian states to old and new, predominantly authoritarian, actors. This shift reflects an effort by the military regimes to project independence, diversify their partners and ultimately maintain their hold on power. Traditional partners like China and Russia have intensified economic and security relationships with their Sahelian partners during the past few years, while newer partners like Turkey and the Gulf states have increased their presence and influence in the region through infrastructure projects, arms exports and natural resource deals. At the same time, the exit by the AES states from the regional organisation ECOWAS has resulted in both new partnerships and new tensions among member states, profoundly reshaping the regional landscape. This article, the second in a two-part series examining the security and political context in the Sahel, explores these evolving partnerships with non-Western actors, focusing in particular on the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. It examines the broader lines of cooperation and engagement by Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf states and identifies both similarities and important differences in their approaches. The aim is to provide a clearer overview of the Sahel’s shifting international relationships and to deepen our understanding of the dynamics, tensions and strategic choices among non-Western partners. differences and tensions between the non-Western partners. With a growing number of external actors competing for influence in the Sahel, Europe must base its recalibrated (re)engagement on a solid understanding of these dynamics.
- Topic:
- Politics, Coup, Engagement, and Security Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Turkey, Asia, Sahel, and Gulf Nations
2339. The Fog: The Opacity That Warns
- Author:
- Joris Van Bladel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Now in its fourth year, Russia’s war on Ukraine has become more than a battlefield confrontation. It is fire, ice, and fog at once: the hot war in Ukraine fought with mass, drones, and attrition; the cold confrontation with NATO, centred on escalation management; and the fog of Russia’s internal struggle, marked by fatigue, militarisation, repression, and a growing social isolation, as much of the population seeks to distance itself from the war both mentally and in daily life. Considered alone, each dimension distorts the picture. Taken together, they reveal a Russia both fragile and resilient, archaic and adaptive. This is Part III: The Fog, examining Russia’s internal front—the least legible dimension of the conflict. The system performs strength while pressure accumulates beneath the surface: raison d’état coexists with societal passivity, producing fragility that yields lurches rather than orderly decline. This Policy Brief maps that opacity through an economy of exhaustion, the “veteran variable” as battlefield costs migrate home, a society that holds still under pressure, elite cohesion sustained by fear and performance, and the indicators that often precede sudden shifts. The policy lesson is simple: do not mistake opacity for stability—prepare for discontinuity, monitor the silent front, and prioritise endurance over spectacle.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Political stability, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
2340. DRC-Rwanda: Why the 27 June Agreement is not Enough and How CENCO-ECC might Improve the Odds of Peace
- Author:
- Erik Kennes
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- On 27 June, a Peace Agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Rwanda was undersigned in Washington, witnessed by the US government. The agreement is based on the “Declaration of Principles” undersigned on 25 April by the Congolese and Rwandan Ministers of Foreign Affairs. This is the last in a series of agreements and arrangements concluded over the last 25 years which never resolved the basic problems underpinning the recurrent conflict, notably the foreign security and economic policy of Rwanda, and the structural weakness of the DRC state and security forces. In their conception or implementation, they did not address the fundamental “root causes” of the crisis in the East either. Will it be different this time? Two elements are new: it is the first direct bilateral peace agreement between DRCongo and Rwanda, to a certain extent guaranteed by the US state department. It is concluded between the real decision-makers but ignores most existing procedures and regulations set up after previous crises. Secondly, it considers economic aspects crucial for durable peace, while political issues are simply discarded.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, and Central Africa
2341. The Ice: The Confrontation That Cannot Thaw
- Author:
- Joris Van Bladel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Europe’s debate over Russia is sharply divided along ideological, epistemological, and geographical lines, crystallised by Fiona Hill’s June 2025 warning that “Russia is at war with Britain.” While sceptics downplay the threat and frame Western policy as the driver of Russian behaviour, others emphasise Russia’s capabilities and ambitions yet struggle to reconcile its simultaneous weakness and aggression. Van Bladel resolves this through the fragile-state paradigm, where capacity limits foster risk-taking coercion rather than restraint. This brief (Part II in a three-part series) systematically assesses Russia’s layered challenge: battle-hardened forces, grey-zone campaigns, conventional build-up in key regions, nuclear signalling, and adaptive but inconsistent execution. Democracies must prepare for rare but catastrophic “fat-tail” risks, emphasising endurance over spectacle—munitions stockpiles over prestige platforms, redundancy over efficiency, rehearsed decision-making over rhetorical unity—ensuring a measured response compatible with liberal deomcracy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Fragile States, Gray Zone, Coercion, and Aggression
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
2342. The Fire: The Offensive Meant to Decide the War
- Author:
- Joris Van Bladel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Now in its fourth year, Russia’s war on Ukraine has become more than a battlefield confrontation. It is fire, ice, and fog at once: the hot war in Ukraine fought with mass, drones, and attrition; the cold confrontation with NATO, centered on escalation management; and the fog of Russia’s internal struggle, marked by fatigue, militarization, repression, and a growing social isolation, as much of the population seeks to distance itself from the war both mentally and in daily life. Considered alone, each dimension distorts the picture. Taken together, they reveal a Russia both fragile and resilient, archaic and adaptive. This is Part I: The Fire, focusing on Russia’s war against Ukraine. Two further Policy Briefs will follow, each covering the other fronts of Russia’s struggle.
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
2343. The EU-India Strategic Relationship in Times of Geopolitical Turmoil
- Author:
- Jan Luykx
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- After an eventful geopolitical summer, the India-EU relationship has been pushed completely to the political background. The waves created by President Trump have unbalanced both India and the EU. While this seems to have pushed the EU-India relationship into the background, it has the potential of opening up opportunities for working together more closely in several significant areas. It is up to the EU and India to take up this challenge and to carry forward their stated intention of strengthening their strategic relationship. While developing this strategic relationship, New Delhi and Brussels will both be forced to consider the reality of their respective relationships with Washington, Beijing and Moscow, in a context of shifting geopolitical dynamics.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and India
2344. How Western states keep the lead in the World Bank: Multipolarity, Geopolitics and the World Bank’s Conflicted Attempts at Shareholding Reform
- Author:
- Jakob Vestergaard and Robert H. Wade
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the World Bank’s protracted and conflicted attempts at shareholding reform from 2008 to the present, situating them within the broader context of multipolarity and intensifying geopolitical rivalries. Despite repeated commitments since the Bretton Woods conference that voting power should reflect countries’ relative weight in the world economy, the Bank’s governance remains strikingly misaligned. China, India, and Indonesia—three of the four most populous countries—remain markedly underrepresented relative to their economic size, while many advanced economies retain disproportionate influence. Drawing on interviews with Executive Directors, Bank staff, and external observers, the paper traces the reform trajectory across successive rounds of review (2008, 2010, 2015, 2018, 2020, and the ongoing 2025 process). It highlights how technical proposals for “dynamic formulas” and equitable redistribution have consistently collided with entrenched geopolitical interests, notably U.S. resistance to a meaningful increase in China’s voting power, European reluctance to relinquish single-seat privileges, and Japan’s determination not to be overtaken by China. At the same time, institutional design—particularly the constitutionalized principle of “preemptive rights” in capital increases—has entrenched inertia by allowing any shareholder to veto dilution of its relative voting share. The result is a widening gap between rhetoric and reality: while official discourse stresses “equitable voting power,” actual reforms have delivered only fractional adjustments, often eroded in subsequent years. The paper sets out three scenarios for the 2025 shareholding review—a worstcase outcome of stalemate, a modest reform limited to symbolic gestures, and a best-case scenario involving a new institutional design based on misalignment limits, responsible shareholding, and open leadership selection. We argue that unless substantive reform is forthcoming, the Bank risks undermining its legitimacy as the world’s premier development finance institution in an increasingly multipolar world.
- Topic:
- World Bank, Reform, Geopolitics, Voting, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2345. Análisis narrativo de la política pública de reconocimiento de territorios y territorialidades campesinas en Colombia 1994 – 2024. Avances, limitaciones y recomendaciones
- Author:
- Patricia Sánchez García
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre Desarrollo (CIDER), Universidad de los Andes
- Abstract:
- El reconocimiento de territorios y territorialidades campesinas no ha avanzado de forma lineal, su desarrollo presenta tanto momentos de avance como de retroceso. Estos dan cuenta de que ha sido un tema controversial y objeto de disputa. Este documento analiza la política pública de reconocimiento de territorios y territorialidades campesinas en Colombia. El análisis se hace desde una perspectiva narrativa, para la cual es clave la identificación y el análisis de la situación controversial que cimenta la política pública, así como de las narrativas y contranarrativas movilizadas en su marco. Identifico dos narrativas movilizadas frente a los campesinos y sus formas de territorialidad: una narrativa estigmatizante, que concibe los territorios campesinos como espacios fuera del orden sobre los cuales debe imponerse la soberanía estatal. Una segunda narrativa, por el contrario, afirma la importancia del reconocimiento de la particular relación que establecen los campesinos con sus territorios y resalta los aportes que desde estos se hace a la seguridad y soberanía alimentaria, a la protección ambiental, a la superación del conflicto interno y a la materialización de la reforma agraria. Así mismo, propongo una metanarrativa centrada en la reconstrucción del proceso de desarrollo de la política de reconocimiento que abarca el período 1994- 2024. Esta ubica dos períodos de avance de la política, el primero entre 1994 y 2002 y el segundo entre 2022 y 2024, en el medio de los cuales hubo un momento de estancamiento de alrededor de dos décadas. A partir de las narrativas identificadas y de la metanarrativa construida, propongo una serie de recomendaciones para el avance de la política pública de reconocimiento que interpelan tanto al Estado co
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Food, Public Policy, Recognition, and Peasants
- Political Geography:
- South America
2346. Engendering Pluralism in Economics: Gendered Perspectives from an International Survey of Economists*
- Author:
- Mohsen Javdani
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- This study contributes to growing calls for greater pluralism in economics by examining how gender shapes economists’ normative and epistemological orientations. Drawing on original survey data from 2,425 economists across 19 countries, we document systematic gender differences in views on a broad range of issues. Female economists are significantly more likely to support progressive equity-oriented positions, challenge mainstream assumptions, and endorse pluralistic approaches to inquiry. We also find stark gender differences in political ideology: women are far more likely than men to identify as left-leaning—particularly far-left—while men disproportionately align with centrist or right-leaning ideologies. These ideological divides account for some of the gender differences in views, underscoring the mediating role of political ideology. However, the influence of ideology itself varies by gender: moving rightward on the ideological spectrum reduces support for some progressive positions more sharply among men than women. This suggests that gendered experiences inform distinct interpretive frameworks that persist even within shared ideological categories. Taken together, our findings highlight that gender diversity in economics is not merely demographic but epistemic—and that realizing its transformative potential requires institutional environments that value and legitimize dissenting and underrepresented perspectives.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Ideology, Pluralism, and Gender Diversity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2347. The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy: How Long Do ‘Hallucinations’ Last?
- Author:
- Servaas Storm
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- The U.S. is undergoing an extraordinary, AI-fueled economic boom: The stock market is soaring thanks to exceptionally high valuations of AI-related tech firms, which are fueling economic growth by the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars they are spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure. The AI investment boom is based on the belief that AI will make workers and firms significantly more productive, which will in turn boost corporate profits to unprecedented levels. But evidence is piling up that generative AI (GenAI) is failing to deliver. This paper argues that (i) we have reached “peak GenAI” in terms of current Large Language Models (LLMs); scaling (building more data centers and using more chips) will not take us further to the goal of “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI); returns are diminishing rapidly; (ii) the AI-LLM industry and the larger U.S. economy are experiencing a speculative bubble, which is about to burst (because of the first point); and (iii) the U.S. bet the farm on a future dominated by U.S.-owned AGI, because, for geopolitical reasons, it could not afford to risk to lose the AI-race with China; this geopolitical bet on AGI is now going bad.
- Topic:
- Water, Geopolitics, Economy, Profit, Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, Energy, Large Language Models (LLMs), ChatGPT, and Speculative Bubbles
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
2348. Is Fedwire Still a Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?
- Author:
- William Bergman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the Federal Reserve’s current financial losses—unprecedented in scale—and the questionable accounting practices it uses to downplay their impact. It argues that the Fed’s selfdefined accounting standards, particularly the creation of a “deferred asset” to mask negative equity, obscure the fiscal consequences for the U.S. government and taxpayers. The analysis connects today’s losses to longstanding institutional practices, notably the Fed’s flawed costrecovery accounting for its Fedwire payment system. These issues first emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the author, then a Fed staffer, challenged the internal logic used to claim that Fedwire guaranteed payments and still avoided subsidies. The paper includes as an appendix the original 2002 draft, “Fedwire: A Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?”, which helped reveal the moral hazard and accounting inconsistencies that contributed to the 2008 crisis and continue to shape central bank risk and governance today
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve, Regulation, Central Bank, and Payment Systems
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
2349. The Flawed Welfare Foundations of Pro-Free Trade Arguments
- Author:
- Mark Glick and Gabriel A. Lozada
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Free trade has long been defended as an unquestioned good in economics, yet its welfare foundations are deeply flawed. The efficiency gains highlighted by comparative advantage rest on the Potential Pareto Principle, which assumes away distributional concerns and treats aggregate surplus as synonymous with social welfare. In practice, free trade produces both winners and losers, often with significant and lasting harms to labor. Classical and modern theorists—from Ricardo to Samuelson—have acknowledged these problems, but standard textbooks and policy rhetoric bury them beneath confident claims of net benefits. Revisiting the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, critiques of consumer and social surplus, and later retractions by Hicks and Samuelson, we show that the intellectual case for free trade rests on indefensible ethical and empirical premises. A more rigorous and honest approach requires economists to restrict themselves to identifying effects on different groups, while leaving judgments about welfare and distribution to broader political debate.
- Topic:
- Economics, Free Trade, Trade, and Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2350. Historical American Political Finance Data at the National Archives: A Preface to the INET Edition
- Author:
- Thomas Ferguson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Narratives in American history, politics, and economics — even those by the most accomplished researchers — often resemble donuts: at their core lies a hole that no amount of sweet speculation can truly fill. They say almost nothing about the financing behind even the most pivotal American political campaigns and elections. Both history and the social sciences suffer greatly when facts are missing and wild guesses take their place. INET’s new data archive of historical political finance records at the National Archives marks a major step toward filling this factual void. It assembles all campaign finance reports filed by political parties and presidential candidates up to 1974, the year before the Federal Election Commission was established. A few additional files, including one from the FEC for 1976, are also included, as detailed below. This INET Working Paper outlines what users need to know to navigate the archive effectively and locate the data they require.
- Topic:
- History, Elections, Regulation, and Political Finance
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America