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1951. Business & Peace Report 2024

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This report examines the relationship between a country's economic performance and its level of peacefulness. The key finding is that peace serves as a reliable predictor of a country's future macro-economic trajectory, creating a business environment that provides superior returns to global averages. This represents a valuable insight for informing strategic investment decisions and offering a multitude of applications for businesses and fund managers, including in the design of financial investment products. For corporations it can help to guide investment decisions into markets with lower risk and stronger growth potential.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Macroeconomics, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1952. Halo, Positive Peace and Systems Thinking 2024: Advancing a Systems-Based Approach to Understanding and Building Peace

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is dedicated to advancing the understanding of the operations of societal systems. To this end, this report brings together research conducted by IEP over the last decade and includes two conceptual approaches that are distinct but highly compatible: Positive Peace and Halo. These two concepts guide the organisation’s research, mission, and theory of social change. In addition, the report covers other related work including attempts to measure national intent, predict future substantial declines in peace, and to measure societal shocks and resilience in relation to the ecology.
Topic:
Economics, Peace, Resilience, and Systems Thinking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1953. Positive Peace Report 2024

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
Peace is more than the absence of violence. Positive Peace describes the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It is conceptually related to many aspects of social development and can be used in multiple contexts. In addition to being a transformative concept, it is also a social good. When combined with systems thinking Positive Peace is a transformational concept as it envisages new ways of understanding how societies operate and how to develop thriving communities. Toward this end, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) developed the Positive Peace Index (PPI), a statistically derived measure of the factors that create flourishing societies, which is based on eight Pillars of Positive Peace. The concept of Positive Peace as well as general PPI results, including rankings and changes over time, are the focus of this report.
Topic:
Economics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Positive Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1954. Mexico Peace Index 2024

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 11th edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis, and estimates of the economic impact of violence. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five major indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 1.4 percent in 2023. This was the fourth straight year of improvement, following four consecutive years of deteriorations. However, more states deteriorated than improved, with 15 states improving and 17 deteriorating.
Topic:
Economics, Violence, Peace, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

1955. Global Peace Index 2024

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. This year it introduces a new measure of global military capability that incorporates military sophistication, technology, and battle readiness into a single measure. The report finds that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of the Second World War. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements. The number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1956. Contemporary Trends in Militarisation

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This report provides two new approaches to understand the capabilities of the world’s militaries by country. The first analyses and tracks changes in a range of militarisation indicators. The main finding of this approach is that while military expenditure is rising in absolute terms, as a percentage of GDP it has fallen and is around half of the peaks seen at the height of the Cold War. Concurrently, as military sophistication increases, troop numbers are declining, highlighting a growing reliance on technology. The second approach is the development of a new and original methodology that calculates the military capacity of countries by weighting the generations of their military assets. These capability scores substantially change the ranking of countries when compared to traditional approaches that count just the number of military assets, or compare military expenditure. The US has the highest capability score, well ahead of China, which ranks second. Russia follows China closely in third. Countries such as Iran and North Korea, despite having large fleets of fixed wing planes, drop considerably in the rankings, because their assets represent older technology. These trends occur as the world is at a crossroad with the number of conflicts, 59, at an all-time high since WWII. These conflicts are becoming more internationalised, with 92 countries involved in a conflict beyond their borders, rising competition between the major powers, and more middle level powers also becoming more assertive. Unresolved conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII, opening more opportunity for major conflicts to erupt.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Conflict, Militarization, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1957. Multilateralism Index 2024

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
There are growing calls to transform the multilateral system, which is widely seen as being in crisis. Yet solving the crisis of multilateralism requires understanding what that crisis entails. What parts of the multilateral system are in crisis, and what parts are still functioning? Where is commitment to multilateralism flagging, and where does it remain strong? Where is multilateral action failing to translate into concrete results, and where is it delivering? Who is being left out of multilateral engagement, and who is being included? And what are the trends over time? To help answer these questions, the International Peace Institute (IPI) and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) developed the Multilateralism Index. This 2024 edition of the Index assesses changes in international cooperation between 2013 and 2023 across five domains: Peace and Security, Human Rights, Climate Action, Public Health, and Trade. Each domain is evaluated across three dimensions: Participation, Performance, and Inclusivity
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Human Rights, Multilateralism, Peace, Trade, Public Health, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1958. Regressive income shocks during COVID‑9: Evidence from India

Author:
Amit Basole, Anand Shrivastava, Jay Kulkarni, and Akshit Arora
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Studies based on the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) in India have shown that the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on household incomes was progressive in nature - richer households suffered more. But several media reports as well as purposive surveys carried out during the pandemic suggest that the poor suffered more than the rich. We use nationally representative panel data for urban India from the official Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) to show that households that were relatively richer prior to the start of the pandemic suffered relatively less during the lockdown compared to households that were poorer. That is, the shock was regressive in nature. We also confirm that, as per CPHS, richer households did indeed experience higher drops in income than poorer ones. But we show that this progressivity is much less than what prevailed prior to the pandemic. Thus the pandemic either disrupted ongoing progressive income changes or was outright regressive in its impacts.
Topic:
Employment, COVID-19, Lockdown Policies, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

1959. China Maritime Report No. 42: Invasion Plans: Operation Causeway and Taiwan's Defense in World War II

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
During World War II, the United States and the Empire of Japan each developed plans and marshaled forces for a climactic battle over Taiwan. Both sides regarded the island as an area of strategic consequence. Code-named Operation CAUSEWAY, the American invasion of Taiwan would have been the largest amphibious campaign in the Pacific Theater and the largest sea-air-land engagement in world history. Strategists in Japan believed the attack was coming and designed a blueprint for the defense of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands called SHO-GO(捷 2 号作戦, or “Operation Victory No. 2”), which envisioned a bloody campaign of annihilation. Japanese camouflage, concealment, and deception efforts in Taiwan were effective at hiding many capabilities from American intelligence. In recent years, Taiwanese military officers have drawn lessons from Taiwan’s wartime history to improve their defense plans. They highlight the need to stockpile, update beach defenses, mobilize whole-of-society support, expand underground bunker complexes, and prepare for a long fight and layered defense campaign. One important lesson of this history for the U.S. Navy and Joint Force is that deterrence worked before. It can work again. Under certain circumstances, the United States and Taiwan may be capable of preventing a PRC invasion of the island. But a tremendous amount of hard work will be needed to realize that goal. By revisiting the history of Taiwan-focused war plans, we may better assess current challenges and develop insights that could inform future strategic, operational, and tactical decisions.
Topic:
History, Military Affairs, Maritime, World War II, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Invasion, and Operation Causeway
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

1960. China Maritime Report No. 41: One Force, Two Force, Red Force, Blue Force: PLA Navy Blue Force Development for Realistic Combat Training

Author:
J. Michael Dahm
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
Since the mid-2010s, there has been a concerted effort to professionalize a PLAN “blue force” as an opposition force, or OPFOR, in maritime exercises and training. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) routinely refers to its blue forces as metaphorical “whetstones” used to sharpen the PLA for a future fight against enemies of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Efforts to develop a PLAN blue force appear to have accelerated over the past several years in response to Chairman Xi Jinping’s decade-long demand for more realistic combat training. This report examines recent developments in the PLAN’s blue force. It comprises four sections. Part one provides background on PLAN efforts to professionalize its maritime blue force. Part two describes the PLAN’s blue force training units. Part three examines companies producing equipment and virtual environments for China’s blue force units, while part four discusses current blue force capabilities. The report concludes with a summary of findings and implications for the United States, its allies, and partners.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Maritime, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Training
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

1961. China Maritime Report No. 40: Onboard Political Control - The Ship Political Commissar in Chinese Merchant Shipping

Author:
Conor M. Kennedy
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
Since the creation of the People’s Republic of China’s merchant fleet, the Chinese Communist Party has implemented a system of political control aboard oceangoing vessels through ship Party branches and ship political commissars. This report focuses on the ship political commissar, a Party representative assigned to oceangoing merchant ships, particularly within state-owned shipping enterprises, to carry out political and administrative work in the management of ship crews. Having peaked in authority and power during the Cultural Revolution, the ship political commissar position has evolved over the decades following economic reforms in the 1980s. Despite years of problematic implementation, the ship political commissar system is currently undergoing a revitalization in staterun shipping companies. The position has supporting roles to play in carrying out national tasking such as evacuations of overseas Chinese citizens. Most ship political commissars are former PLA officers. Chinese roll-on/roll-off ferry operators constitute a special case where the ship political commissar may have greater authority in the ship hierarchy and potentially a role in supporting PLA use of those vessels. This report focuses on the ship political commissar system over the last 20 years, providing a needed update on this understudied topic in the English-language literature.
Topic:
History, Political Parties, Shipping, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1962. China Maritime Report No. 39: A Hundred Men Wielding One Gun - Life, Duty, and Cultural Practices Aboard PLAN Submarines

Author:
Conor M. Kennedy
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
Submarine performance is not just measured in technical terms, but also in how crews operate over time. As the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) increasingly deploys its submarine force beyond the near seas on long-distance combat readiness and training missions, studying the force’s human components benefits a broader understanding its overall effectiveness. This report explores work and living conditions, crew endurance, service culture, political requirements, and approaches to resolving human issues in the submarine force. An inherently dangerous and challenging profession, the submarine force has gradually developed numerous solutions to address various challenges to prevent non-combat attrition among crews. Life and duty in the “Dragon Palace,” both an internal joke and the overarching embodiment of PLAN submarine culture, reveals a professional community focused on secrecy, safety, and expertise that is working to enhance its human performance.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1963. China Maritime Report No. 38: PLAN Anti-Submarine Warfare Aircraft - Sensors, Weapons, and Operational Concepts

Author:
Eli Tirk and Daniel Salisbury
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
The PLA Navy recognizes the importance of a robust anti-submarine warfare (ASW) system to counter adversaries seeking undersea asymmetric advantages, and its aviation component is a key part of that system. This report discusses the PLAN's efforts to improve its airborne ASW platforms and equipment and describes how PLAN-affiliated sources discuss the employment of those assets. The PLAN's significant buildup and growing employment of fixed-wing maritime patrol aircraft in recent years are key indicators of the importance it attaches to the airborne ASW mission set, as is its push to acquire improved sensors on both fixed and rotary wing ASW platforms. PLAN-affiliated authors show that its academic and operational components are coordinating to explore best practices and maximize the effectiveness of these assets across a wide array of ASW scenarios.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Warfare, and Aircraft
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1964. China Maritime Report No. 37: Re-Engaging With the World: China's Military Diplomacy in 2023

Author:
Jie Gao and Kenneth W. Allen
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
China’s military diplomacy plays a crucial role in advancing the nation's foreign policy objectives and safeguarding its strategic interests. This report highlights a diverse array of activities within military diplomacy, including senior-level meetings, joint military exercises, naval port calls, UN peacekeeping operations, and academic exchanges. Our findings reveal a significant—but incomplete—recovery in China's military diplomacy activities in 2023, following a period of reduced contacts with foreign militaries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Southeast Asia and Russia remain primary partners for China, with emerging strategic importance also seen in Africa, Oceania, and the Middle East. Overall, China's military diplomacy underscores its efforts to diversify partnerships and assert its global influence, emphasizing regional stability and international cooperation in pursuit of its diplomatic goals.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, COVID-19, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

1965. China Maritime Report No. 36: China's T-AGOS: The Dongjian Class Ocean Surveillance Ship

Author:
Devin Thorne
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
Since 2017, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has commissioned a new class of ocean surveillance vessel into its order of battle: the Type 927. Similar in design and function to the U.S. Navy’s Victorious and Impeccable class T-AGOS ships, the Type 927 was introduced to help remedy the PLAN’s longstanding weakness in anti-submarine warfare. The PLAN has likely built six Type 927 ships to date, most based for easy access to the South China Sea. In peacetime, these ships use their towed array sonar to collect acoustic data on foreign submarines and track their movements within and beyond the first island chain. In wartime, Type 927 vessels could contribute to PLAN anti-submarine warfare operations in support of a range of different maritime campaigns. However, their lack of self-defense capabilities would make them extremely vulnerable to attack.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Navy, Maritime, Surveillance, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1966. China Maritime Report No. 35: Beyond Chinese Ferry Tales: The Rise of Deck Cargo Ships in China's Military Activities, 2023

Author:
J. Michael Dahm
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
This report provides a comprehensive assessment of Chinese civilian shipping support to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), examining civil maritime-military activities in 2023. As of 2023 and probably through at least 2030, the PLA’s reserve fleet of civilian ships is probably unable to provide the amphibious landing capabilities or the over-the-shore logistics in austere or challenging environments necessary to support a major cross-strait invasion of Taiwan. However, 2023 activity has demonstrated significant progress toward that end. In addition to the extensive use of civilian ferries, this report identifies the first use of large deck cargo ships to support PLA exercises. While not as capable as large, ocean-going ferries, China’s civil fleet boasts dozens of large deck cargo ships and may provide the PLA with the lift capacity necessary to eventually support a large crossstrait operation. This report also discusses other civil maritime-military activities including “surge lift events,” coordination and synchronization of multi-theater events, floating causeway developments, and the dedicated use of civilian ships for intra-theater military logistics.
Topic:
Maritime, Shipping, Logistics, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

1967. China Maritime Report No. 34: PLAN Submarine Training in the "New Era"

Author:
Christopher Sharman and Terry Hess
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
Since 2018, there have been significant changes to People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine force training, and these changes have been driven by important revisions to strategic guidance and subsequent directives that focused PLA efforts to enhance its capabilities to operate in the maritime domain. While this guidance is applicable to all services, improving PLAN submarine force capabilities appears to have been of particular interest to senior Chinese leadership. This guidance expanded the PLA’s maritime domain requirements, which demanded that China’s submarine force improve its capabilities to operate independently or along with other PLAN assets at greater distances from coast and in the far seas. This has resulted in submarine training that is more realistic, rigorous, and standardized across the fleet. Though stressful on submarine equipment and crews, these changes to training may ultimately yield a more combat-capable submarine fleet operating throughout the western Pacific.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Navy, Maritime, Submarines, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Training
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1968. The Influence of the UN at the Country Level: The Case of Sri Lanka from 2007 to 2011

Author:
Neil Buhne
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
Assessments of the effectiveness of the UN often assume that there is one “United Nations,” when in fact there are many different “United Nations”: one of these is the UN at the country level, whose work is often undervalued or overlooked. As the experience in Sri Lanka from 2007 to 2011 demonstrates, the UN despite internal and external limitations, can have unique influence on a country’s crisis response and development path, because of its role in most countries as the “locally based international organization” transparently embedded in a country and society. Through that, it may be able to influence a country across the range of needs related to peacebuilding, human rights, crisis response/humanitarian assistance, and development/recovery. If there is stronger recognition and support for that role, the UN can be a better “influencer,” helping countries to prevent crises and/or respond to them in ways which improve their citizens’ lives. The experience in Sri Lanka demonstrates both the limits on what a UN Country Team can do “locally,” and what more a UN country team can do to influence the possibilities a country has.
Topic:
United Nations, International Development, Crisis Management, Peacebuilding, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

1969. Climate Adaptation Finance: The Gap Between Needs and Resources Continues to Grow

Author:
Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
Our recent research on the state and trends of climate adaptation finance needs, gaps, and trends globally and in Africa provides new insights that call for greater urgency in adaptation action and financing. The global adaptation funding gap continues to widen because the understanding of needs shows much higher levels of investment required, and the rate of increase of adaptation financing is insufficient. In this policy brief, we review global climate finance trends, the growing funding gap in climate adaptation finance globally and in Africa, financial instruments used for climate adaptation, and challenges and recommendations to improve the tracking of climate adaptation finance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Climate Finance, International Development, Funding, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

1970. Taiwan’s International Legal Standing: Navigating the Fragile Status Quo

Author:
Mahir Al Banna
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This study aimed to discuss the legal limbo of Taiwan, whose political situation lies in a grey area of international law. Its legal status is ambiguous: while meeting the characteristics of a State, it is not recognized by other States so long as China claims it as a Chinese territory. The methodology developed in this study adopted the descriptive analytical approach to the different principles of international law, in addition to quantitative methods, which involved gathering data on cases, courts, and resolutions of international organizations, followed by thorough analysis. This research provided an in-depth investigation to critically assess Taiwan’s fragile status quo, threatened by a potential Chinese military intervention. The study found that the idea that Taiwan is deprived of legal status points out the shortcomings of international law. This study concluded that to overcome this tricky situation, Taiwan should take bold moves, such as making constitutional reforms to facilitate its independence.
Topic:
International Law, Status Quo, Recognition, and Use of Force
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

1971. The Strategic Adjustments of China, India, and the US in the Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Context

Author:
Binh Nguyen, Hiep Tran, Co Nguyen, and Vuong Nguyen
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the XXI century, the Indo-Pacific region has become the “focus” of strategic competition between the world’s great powers. This area included many “choke points” on sea routes that are strategically important for the development of international trade, playing an important role in transporting oil, gas, and goods around the world from the Middle East to Australia and East Asia. The article analyzed the geostrategic position of the Indo-Pacific region and the strategic adjustments in foreign affairs of some major powers in this region, specifically the US, China, and India. To achieve this goal, the authors used research methods in international relations to analyze the main issues of the study. In addition to reviewing previous scholarly research and reviews, the authors used a comparative approach to assess the interactions between theory and data. The authors believed that these data are important for accurately assessing the strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region, and this area was an important trigger for the US, China, and India to make adjustments to its foreign policy. If the US proposed a strategy called “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP), India’s strategy was called the Indo-Pacific Initiative. China’s Indo-Pacific strategy was clearly expressed through the “String of Pearls” strategy and the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). As a result, in the geopolitical context of the Indo-Pacific region, the competition between major powers (the US, China, India...) is also becoming fiercer and more complex. It has a significant impact on other countries in the region.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Trade, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, India, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1972. Between Tradition and Transformation: The Impact of Illiberal Populism on Georgia’s Democratic Aspirations

Author:
Giorgi Iakobishvili
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The article examines the role of Georgian far-right illiberal populist groups in Georgian politics and their influence on Georgia’s foreign policy and the ongoing democratization process, emphasizing Euroscepticism, liberal institutional development, and the pro-Russian narrative. Using qualitative research methodology, we analyzed the programs, manifestos, and public speeches of well-known groups active in Georgian politics, such as People's Power, Georgian March, Georgian Idea, Unity, Essence, Hope (ERI), and Alliance of Patriots of Georgia. Analysis of the mentioned material, as well as various scientific studies, shows that the discourse of these groups is dominated by xenophobic, nationalist, populist, and racist rhetoric, which represents a significant challenge to Georgia’s European integration path and in the direction of democratization of its governance system. In the long term, we concluded that the existence and development of these illiberal populist actors threaten Georgia’s aspirations for European integration and democratic development. This study contributes to a broader discourse about populism and illiberal views in the Georgian reality, focusing on the influence of these ideologies on the formation of the country’s foreign policy and orientation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Populism, Domestic Politics, Illiberalism, and Euroskepticism
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

1973. Assessing Success Through Party Label Durability: A Comparative Study of the Democratic Party of Albania and the Homeland Union of Lithuania

Author:
Ilir Kalemaj and Sokol Lleshi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This study provided a theoretical framework explaining center-right opposition parties’ evolution in former Eastern Europe. It answered why post-communist center-right parties lacked consistent success and either became marginalized, altered their ideologies, or ceased to exist in the long run. By taking the Democratic Party of Albania as one of the exceptions to the rule and comparing it to the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats, we showed the discrepancy with much of the other center-right parties. We followed a most different systems design, where the dominant center-right party of Albania and the dominant one in Lithuania were compared. Although much different in history, political culture, and institutions, they had similar successful trajectories as dominant center-right parties. We argued that the success of these parties depends upon the durability of party labels as a critical determinant of a party’s success historically, which takes priority over party strategy, mobilization power, social base, and the behavior of the center-right party toward political institutions. Overall, we emphasized party labels as cues of party identification and success.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Lithuania, and Albania

1974. Reconsidering the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict and Security Concerns in Africa

Author:
Ndifon Neji, Immaculata Obaji-Akpet, Michael Otu, Joseph Ebegbulem, Samuel Edet, Ayuk Awunghe, and Nwosu Stanley
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a conflict that has transformed international relations through drastic impacts on policymaking, energy politics, and alliances. Such impacts have produced severe multi-dimensional consequences for African countries that have yet to be sufficiently interrogated in the literature. In response to this gap, this paper examined the security implications of the conflict for African countries to offer a comprehensive analysis that considers the intersection of the conflict with contemporary economic, human, social, and political issues confronting Africa. In discourse using a qualitative approach and rooted in a theoretical perspective drawn from the Copenhagen School, the paper underlined the security implications as evident in the areas of food security and governance, buttressing that the proxy conflicts and power struggles associated with this war have exacerbated existing challenges related to food availability and interfered with the consolidation of democracy in Africa. The paper concluded that the war’s multi-dimensional impact potentially compounds political instability vectors. It generates dynamics capable of eroding social cohesion and fomenting social unrest in Africa, meriting its designation as an issue of great concern to African policymakers.
Topic:
Security, Human Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Social Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Ukraine

1975. Legality of the Use of Cluster Bombs in International Law: A Short Overview

Author:
Vesna Poposka and Abdulmecit Nuredin
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine brought the collective security system towards a dead-end street. After raising the question of nuclear threat, another long-time forgotten question arises again, waking up the ghosts that slept for more than a half-century- the use of cluster bombs. Although an international convention prohibits this type of weapon, neither Ukraine, Russia, nor the United States are part of it, which leads back to the agony of fragmentation of international law versus the erga omnes concept of universally applicable norms and customary rules. Since the war is official and intensive, the law of armed conflict applies no matter which of the states involved denies it or names it differently. The use of cluster munitions from both sides is highly contested in international law—the paper aimed to provide an overview of the applicable legal framework through analytical and comparative methods. Although there is a general notion that cluster munition is banned under international law, the paper’s results show this is not the ultimate case. Contextualisation relies on the four basic principles of humanitarian law.
Topic:
Security, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Russia-Ukraine War, and Cluster Bombs
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus

1976. The Changing Conceptual Landscape of the Russian War in Ukraine (2014-Present) and Syria (2011-Present)

Author:
Piotr Pietrzak
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The main goal of this paper is to present and compare the main developments in the Russian wars in Ukraine and Syria by considering the main patterns, parallels, and changing trajectories that could shed more light onto both of these war zones, which are highly interlinked due to Russia’s leading role in both. It analytically, comparatively, and contemplatively approaches those developments by highlighting multiple similarities and the main differences in global responses to these conflicts. Both conflicts should be seen as highly unpredictable, dynamic, and unnecessarily extended asymmetric proxy wars in which global powers test their new military doctrines and their competitors' responses to their unconventional actions and other unsolicited and indirect interferences in the local dynamism of both wars. Unlike in Syria, the Ukrainian war zone is wholly transformative and ready for the adoption of partial hybridization and the utilization of the new software-defined warfare in combination with conventional weapons.
Topic:
International Relations, Conflict, Syrian War, Russia-Ukraine War, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

1977. The Taiwan election result: A strategic opportunity for a calmer Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mikael Mattlin and Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Taiwan held combined presidential and legislative elections last weekend. The international media generally expected that a win by Lai Ching-te (DPP), who in the past has favoured independence, would lead to tensions and even conflict in the Taiwan Strait. However, there are several reasons why the opposite could be the case.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Elections, and Lai Ching-te
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

1978. The future of EU-Turkey relations: Transactional bargaining continues

Author:
Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Fundamental questions about Turkey’s EU path have been brushed aside for the last ten years. With enlargement back on the agenda, the EU-Turkey relationship seems to be moving towards even more transactionalism, lacking any prospect of meaningful integration.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

1979. Two years of war in Ukraine: Will the West need another shock to act decisively?

Author:
Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The West is failing to provide Ukraine with sufficient resources to resist Russia’s invasion, and lacks a vision for the future of West-Russia relations. This may push Ukraine to the brink of defeat as early as 2024. Western capitals should realize the risks and stop procrastinating.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

1980. Georgia’s government is playing with fire: Internal polarisation invites external interference

Author:
Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Georgia’s government distrusts the West and democratic institutions – despite formally supporting Euro-Atlantic integration. It seeks to merge transactional foreign policy with ultra-conservative values and illiberalism. Current policies are polarising the nation, alienating the West, and making Georgia vulnerable to Russia’s interference.
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Polarization, Post-Soviet Space, Euroskepticism, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

1981. Majority-building in the next European Parliament: The case for a more formal coalition

Author:
Andreas T. Müller
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The openness of the European People’s Party (EPP) to some far-right parties in the European Parliament has led to mistrust and conflict within the political centre. A written coalition agreement could remedy this – and even improve democracy at the EU level.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, European Parliament, and Coalition
Political Geography:
Europe

1982. Defense Cooperation Agreements in northern Europe: Strengthening the United States’ global position, transatlantic relations, and regional deterrence and defense

Author:
Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The US has concluded or updated bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreements (DCAs) with all Nordic states. These DCAs enhance regional deterrence, enable operational and tactical cooperation from day one in the event of war, and provide broader regional and global benefits.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Deterrence, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Nordic Nations, and United States of America

1983. The UN Summit of the Future: Neither breakthrough nor breakdown

Author:
Katja Creutz
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The complex and interconnected governance challenges facing the world have led the UN to convene a Summit of the Future. Despite the tense international political climate, the aim is for UN member states to come together to lay out a roadmap for transforming global governance.
Topic:
United Nations, Governance, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1984. Moldova’s European course: To be continued or to be reversed?

Author:
Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Against all expectations, the pro-European forces in Moldova failed to triumph in Sunday’s election. In particular, the results of the referendum on joining the EU revealed an antagonistic division of the nation into two halves. The parliamentary election next spring could put Moldova’s European integration on hold altogether.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

1985. Georgia at a Crossroads: An Increasingly Illiberal Domestic Policy is Becoming an Obstacle to EU Accession

Author:
Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Georgia faces a defining moment. The recent adoption of a Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence, modelled on Russian legislation, clashes with Georgia’s goal of EU accession. The law allows for extensive control and elimination of civil society and critical voices, which contradicts the democratic principles required for EU membership. The ruling Georgian Dream party nonetheless claims that EU accession, a goal shared by most Georgians, remains achievable by 2030. As the parliamentary elections on 26 October approach, the party seeks to maintain its grip on power by projecting an image of commitment to democracy and EU integration. But opposition parties, civil society organisations and the media have rallied against the law, which many believe reflects a deeper issue: the efforts of a small elite around billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili to consolidate power and push Georgia towards authoritarianism under the guise of democratic governance. An increasing alignment with Russia has accompanied this trend, potentially enabling Russia to exert some level of control over Georgia through a local proxy instead of direct military intervention. This policy brief argues that the EU should implement the steps that High Representative Josep Borrell announced after the Foreign Affairs Council on 24 June 2024. In light of further developments, consideration should be given to additional measures, including targeted EU sanctions on anti-democratic actors similar to those imposed by the US. Continued EU support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression will also be vital for the sovereignty of both Ukraine and Georgia, as well as for regional stability.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Regional Integration, Domestic Policy, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Georgia

1986. Demography in the next institutional cycle: Preparing the landing space

Author:
Maria Gargano and Emilia Pauwels
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Demographic challenges, under different narratives, mediatic and political framing, have been more and more present in the European political debate. The Report on the Future of the Single Market, the so called ‘Letta Report’, mentions demographic shifts a dozen times. Many parties in the run up to the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament in June 2024, have inserted this topic in their programmes. The Greens and the European Socialists approached demography through prioritizing the participation and wellbeing of older generations, with the latter also calling for a cohesion policy which reverses brain drain from remote regions. The European People’s Party takes a more structural approach, promising to continue the support for the current Vice President for Democracy and Demography with the suggestion of introducing a coordinating agency, while ECR Group adopts a fertility-centred view, advocating for measures to support birth rates and family values. In addition, the strategic agenda for the next five years provides to address in a comprehensive way demographic challenges and to ensure the support to a thriving longevity society. However, the borders of a landing space in which the different policy areas intertwine with the consequences of demographic change, remain very uncertain.
Topic:
Demographics, European Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1987. Back to the Future: Applying Cold War Wisdom to Modern Belgian Defence

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Dust off the Cold War files that are lying under mounds of dust in the archives of our European Defence chancelleries. Bring back willing retired officers to share their knowledge of how things were done over 45 years of a solid and ultimately successful defence posture. There is bound to be a wealth of instructive and useful structures, tools, experiences and models, tested to their limit and refined to near perfection over the period of the Cold War between 1945 to the early 1990s. They can be adapted to suit the need for a rapid build-up of both defence capabilities as well as resilience. Belgium’s obligations in NATO: Cold War lessons in brigades’ formations As the new Belgian government undergoes the trials and tribulation of horse-trading to form a new cabinet, following the recent general election, it behoves all politicians to make the defence of the realm a priority, using the wealth of information contained in the experiences of the Cold War. Do the negotiating politicians need more of a prompt than the NATO summit currently held in Washington (2024), celebrating the 75th anniversary of the most successful defence alliance in history, that coincided with the start of the negotiation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Cold War, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

1988. Three Key Concepts for a More Successful Migration Policy in Belgium

Author:
Pierre Verbeeren
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In this policy brief, the author proposes 3 concepts to underpin the new Belgian migration policy, taking into account the new structure of the State. Belgium needs a robust mechanism for dialogue between federal and federated entities. The Regions and Communities have the essential competences for integration. Until our societies find the key to integration, migration policies will remain painful. Finally, our policies must respond to flows of migrants, not to stocks of migrants. These policies must support trajectories rather than groups. A government agreement based on dialogue, integration and flows is more likely to meet the challenges of migration than an agreement that reinforces the federal state’s sovereign power over a stock of migrants.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Migration, European Union, Domestic Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

1989. Thoughts on Improving EU Governance

Author:
Jim Cloos and Giles Merritt
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The EU is changing before our eyes, and we need to rethink parts of its governance. The institutional change-over in 2024 provides a good opportunity to do that. Streamlining EU governance is key to improving its efficiency and gaining credibility and popular support. We asked close to one hundred EU policy specialists with various backgrounds to answer a questionnaire on ‘Strategy and priority-setting,’ ‘Structures,’ ‘Working methods and red tape, and ‘Communication.’ Our focus is on adjustments short of treaty change. Most of our interlocutors agreed with this stance, but there were also dissenting voices. As one expert remarked: “The small reforms we are talking about here are simple, blurring the minds and creating an illusion that change in procedures can resolve fundamental governance and legitimacy deficits….” It is necessary to clarify our thinking. We do not rule out treaty change and more important institutional reforms over time. But there is no appetite presently for a major debate about treaty change with a Convention and a long negotiation process. Waiting for such a process to bring about much needed governance adjustments would be a mistake. Instead, improving governance now may well lead to more ambitious reforms once the conditions are right or the outside circumstances dictate a much more radical overhaul of the EU.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Institutions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1990. Re-Empowering Belgian Foreign Policy

Author:
Alexander Mattelaer
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Belgium’s existing foreign policy framework was never designed to cope with the return of war and the decay of the rules-based international order. As a result, the country’s international position is rapidly deteriorating. The incoming Belgian government will face the daunting task of articulating a new foreign policy that is tailored to the demands of a new era. This Egmont Policy Brief makes the case for putting security back at the centre of Belgium’s international outlook, complementing the strong focus on the EU with strong bilateral diplomacy, and reversing the budgetary erosion of the Belgian foreign policy apparatus. By strengthening its diplomatic corps and its network abroad, the new government can help ensure the collective security and prosperity of all Belgian citizens, that is to say: the national interest.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

1991. The End of Uganda’s Refugee Model, or Just a ‘Transition’?

Author:
Kristof Titeca and Roos Derrix
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Uganda is lauded world-wide as a model for refugee-hosting: It hosts nearly 1.7 million refugees, the highest in Africa, taking in refugees from its neighbouring countries. It also offers them free access to a plot of land, as well as public services. This refugee model is however under severe pressure, due to reduced donor funding. This is largely for political and ideological reasons: donor are increasingly unwilling to finance a protracted crisis such as a Ugandan one; a process which was further accelerated by the outbreak of major humanitarian crises such as Ukraine and Gaza. In this context, funding for the Ugandan refugee crisis is shifting from humanitarian to development funding, but for now without any major donor willing to foot this bill. This situation shows a major friction in the geopolitical status(es) of the country: on the one hand, it is a key-ally for the West as a ‘regional host country’, in which refugees can be hosted in their home regions, and are prevented from migrating to the West. On the other hand, Uganda is experiencing rapid democratic backsliding, manifested by measures such as the brutal anti-gay law or skyrocketing corruption, making continued engagement difficult – including for the much-lauded refugee model.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

1992. Modi III and the EU, after the Elections

Author:
Jan Luykx
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The May elections in India and the June elections for the European Parliament have resulted in leadership-continuity in Delhi and in EU-Brussels. Does this mean that Europe can expect ‘more of the same’ from the new Indian government and vice versa? Will the EU and India take the opportunity of this new start to re-engage in a more significant way than they have done during the last couple of years? Will they be able to identify common interests, and more importantly, act upon them?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Narendra Modi, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, and India

1993. The EU Joint Communication on the ClimateSecurity Nexus One Year On

Author:
Eleonora Milazzo
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
To mark one year since the adoption of the Joint Communication on ‘A New Outlook on the Climate and Security Nexus’ in June 2023, last summer the Belgian Presidency of the EU and the Egmont Institute, together with the EEAS, organised a workshop to take stock of the progress in its implementation. The conclusions reached during the workshop indicate that the Joint Communication has consolidated ‘climate and security’ as a key policy area. The broad approach of the Communication to climate change and environmental degradation, and peace, security and defence, ensures new thematic and operational connections – both at the global level and in specific local contexts. At the same time, in the next policy cycle, it is important to continue to support the operationalisation of this nexus across the whole spectrum of relevant policy areas including human security, conflict prevention, peace, and development and humanitarian action. To achieve this, it is fundamental to strengthen evidence use through existing tools, ensure necessary human and financial resources, devise localised solutions, and engage with a broad range of partners.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

1994. No End in Sight? The West, China, and the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The West supports Ukraine as a non-belligerent. China purports to be neutral, but the West increasingly sees it as a non-belligerent on the side of Russia. In a way, the West’s and China’s approaches are not dissimilar: doing enough for “their” side to stop it from losing the war, but otherwise sitting it out in the hope that the other side will somehow give up. That can hardly be called a strategy. Both the West and China will have to review their strategies if they want to preserve their interests. Will this inevitably increase tensions between them?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Asia-Pacific

1995. Russia’s Potential Alliance with Hizbollah: A Strategic Challenge for the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
One year on, the debate has been dominated by Israel, Hizbollah and the potential for regional war in the Middle East. An additional credible scenario has been worryingly absent: that in which Hizbollah and Russia cooperate, not necessarily to the exclusion of Iran as a third leg in a tripartite alliance. This scenario combines geography, history and geopolitics to bring Hizbollah and Russia closer together as a force to recon with. This is a possible development in the Southern Neighbourhood and the Levant that the EU needs to take seriously. Missing Russia’s potential move on Hizbollah could be an historic omission. The decapitation of Hizbollah’s chain of command that preceded the ground incursion, and Iran’s feeble reaction to the devastating assault on its Lebanese proxy, have created a new geopolitical vacuum and reality in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may spot an opportunity in the misfortunes of Hizbollah and move on a weakened prey. Will Russia’s direct influence return to Beirut for the first time since the 1770s when it occupied the city for a few months following the naval defeat of the Ottoman fleet at the battle of Cheshme? It is a distinct possibility, especially given Iran’s lukewarm military response, and one that the EU, and member states, must be prepared to deal with, if not pre-empt and prevent.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Eastern Mediterranean

1996. Engaging in Fragile Settings: Acknowledging the Cost of Inaction

Author:
Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen, Céleste Ricci, and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On September 30th, 2024, the Egmont Institute, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and the Centre for Humanitarian Action (CHA) convened a panel of experts from the humanitarian assistance, development, and peace sectors to assess the new working environment of the incoming European Commission and discuss its implication for the EU response to fragility. The discussion occurred days after the release of mission letters to Commissioners-designate, and provided an opportunity to assess how the EU, with its new structures and priorities, could sustain engagement in fragile contexts. This paper aims to restitute some of the findings and recommendations that emerged during the exchanges, focusing on pathways and instruments for more effective structural responses to fragility during this decisive period.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, State Engagement, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Europe

1997. What’s Brewing in Benin? Security Collaboration in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:
Nina Wilén
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Gulf of Guinea has drawn attention from Western states in recent years due both to increasing spillover of violent extremism from the Sahel and because of Sahelian military juntas’ shift of security partners from Western countries to Russian actors. Indeed, as three Sahelian states experienced five coups during the past years and gradually ousted their former security partners, starting with France, followed by the UN (in Mali) and the EU and the US (in Niger), the Gulf of Guinea countries’ relative stability and geopolitical positions have attracted new attention from external actors. Benin, neighboring both Burkina Faso and Niger, saw attacks by jihadist groups crossing the borders in the North of the country already in 2019. Although expanding relatively slowly, between 2021 and 2024, the number of attacks grew, forcing the government to invest more resources in counter terrorism efforts and reflect on more immediate ways to counter the expansion. Out of the Gulf of Guinea countries, Benin has so far been the hardest hit, and recorded a doubling in the number of recorded fatalities (to 173 deaths) over the past year. A figure which remains small in comparison to neighboring Sahel states, but which still indicates an increase. In spite of these attacks and the adoption in 2019 of a new electoral code limiting political opposition parties, Benin has remained relatively democratic and stable. Such stability has attracted old and new security partners to increase collaboration, both to counter terrorism and because of the expulsion from the Sahel countries. The US, France and Belgium have all intensified security collaboration with Benin over the past few years, while the EU has launched a new, regional CSDP initiative in the Gulf of Guinea. African states have also showed interest for Benin, with Rwanda offering to send troops bilaterally for counter terrorism purposes, similar to its operations in Mozambique. This policy brief aims to explore Benin’s security situation and international partnerships in the security domain, while identifying current and future challenges to such collaborations. The conclusion argues that Western and multilateral actors should maintain discrete collaboration but be cautious not to overburden Benin with their presence as absorption of new capabilities and capacities take time, and as a too heavy presence of Western security actors can become a burden rather than an advantage for the government. External actors should also continue to support recent efforts by the authorities to open up the political landscape to maintain its long-standing democratic tradition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Sahel, Benin, and Central Africa

1998. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

1999. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

2000. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU

Author:
Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific