Publication Year: within 1 Year and within 25 Years

1901. Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy options

Author:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Muhammad Amir Rana, and Safdar Sial
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: At a time when a major shift is happening in the militant landscape of the country and a political transition is taking place, it is imperative to reevaluate the evolving positions and strategies of not only the militant groups but also the newly formed governments. Against this backdrop, this report seeks to delve into the emerging dynamics of Pakistan's militant landscape and security besides analysing state capacities and responses, along with potential policy shifts post-transition. While much of the research and analyses in Pakistan since Taliban takeover of Kabul has predominantly focused on aspects such as the Taliban regime's governance, Pak-Afghan bilateral affairs, and regional geopolitics, there remains a glaring absence of credible and comprehensive investigations into the broader repercussions of the evolving Afghan scenario on Pakistan's security landscape. Despite periodic headlines on the Pakistani government's negotiations with the proscribed TTP, there has been a dearth of empirical research exploring the overall fallout of Afghanistan's changing dynamics on Pakistan's security. In light of this context, PIPS undertook a firsthand, empirical investigation into the expanding terrorism landscape in the country, scrutinizing the formation of new alliances and networks among terrorist groups, mapping the geographical spread of insecurity and violence, and assessing their ramifications for both domestic and regional security paradigms, among other things. The insights gleaned from this investigation were subsequently utilized to formulate context-specific policy recommendations on how to manage or prevent the negative fallout from evolving Afghanistan situation on Pakistan and the region.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Minorities, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

1902. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 12

Author:: Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hazrat Bilal
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: The Pak Institute for Peace Studies held its 12th quarterly consultation on “Afghan peace and reconciliation: Pakistan’s interests and policy options” in Islamabad on March 15, 2024. The consultation focused on two main themes: “Pakistan’s Afghan policy puzzle: challenges and opportunities for the new government” and “The counterterrorism and counter-extremism challenges for the new federal and provincial governments.” Participants included lawmakers from national and provincial assemblies, diplomats, retired miltary officials, academics, journalists, policy analysts, and experts on Afghan affairs. The distinguished speakers talked about the policy challenges confronting the new government. They were particularly skeptical about the new government’s ability to formulate the country’s Afghan policy, and were worried about surging terrorism in the country, India's increasing influence in Afghanistan, province-center worsening relations, and Pakistan’s deteriorating relations with the neighboring countries. In the first session, the discussion revolved around how the newly formed coalition government will address critical issues such as countering terrorism and improving relations with Afghanistan and other neighboring countries. The need for a solution to Balochistan problem was highlighted. Apart from that, various factors leading to worsening relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan were discussed, for instance the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) factor, deportation of Afghan refugees, border insecurity, and cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan. The participants also linked the success of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to peace in the region. Pakistan's failure to extend goodwill into Afghanistan was termed a significant problem. It was argued that Pakistan's forceful expulsion of Afghan refugees significantly eroded Pakistan's good image in Afghanistan. The participants urged the government to take political ownership of foreign and internal policies and strengthen the role of parliament in order to set things right both at home and abroad. However, they lamented the inability of the political government to assert itself, thereby allowing space to non-democratic forces to decide unilaterally on critical matters. In the second session, the consultation focused on the counterterrorism policies in the center and provinces. The prevailing antagonistic relations between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the coalition government in Islamabad were thought to prevent the formation of an effective counterterrorism policy. Speakers also highlighted how India is exploiting the situation by funneling funds to the TPP through Afghanistan, which has led to a significant surge in the terrorist activities in Pakistan. Improving trade relations with Afghanistan also came under the discussion, and it was advised to reduce hurdles in bilateral trade which will benefit not only Afghanistan but Pakistan as well. It was also highlighted that although there is peace in a political sense in Afghanistan, poverty and economic decay have increased during the Taliban government. In the last minutes of the discussion, it was underscored that the Afghan Taliban deliberately designate Pakistan as their enemy and capitalize on this rhetoric to divert the attention of Afghans away from the system they are implementing, which might lead to further destitution.
Topic:: Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Taliban, Refugees, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

1903. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation: Pakistan's Interests and Policy Options 11

Author:: Osama Ahmad, Imran Mukhtar, and Hina Saleem
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:: This report is outcome of the 11th PIPS-led structured consultation out of a series of twelve such events that have been designed to discuss and critically evaluate evolving aspects of Afghan conflict and political reconciliation and suggest policy options and strategies to the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan. To that end, PIPS has established a network of credible resource persons including former diplomats, academicians, government officials, and representatives of political and religious parties, security and law enforcement agencies, civil society, and media, as well as those living at the border including Afghan refugees. The underlying goal is to support Afghan peace and reconciliation and tackle its trickle-down effect for Pakistan including in terms of militancy and insecurity, among other things.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Refugees, Conflict, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

1904. Episode 7: The Racial Muslim

Author:: Sahar Aziz and Deborah Amos
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Religious bigotry in the U.S. racializes Muslims and Arabs – particularly those in immigrant communities. This week’s episode tackles an ongoing trend where racism quashes religious freedom. Host Sahar Aziz and longtime war correspondent and Princeton journalism Professor Deborah Amos discuss the groundbreaking phenomenon of “The Racial Muslim: When Racism Quashes Religious Freedom” through an historical and comparative approach that demonstrates how race and religion intersect.
Topic:: Islam, Race, Religion, Immigrants, and Freedom of Religion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1905. Legacies of the Vietnam War - Napalm Girl: After the Dragons Left

Author:: Phan Thi Kim Phuc, Nick Ut, Fox Butterfield, and Tony Bui
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: A discussion featuring Kim Phuc, the focal point of one of the most iconic photographs of the 20th century, captured on June 8, 1972, in Trang Bang, Vietnam. On this day, a napalm attack led to a moment frozen in time by photographer Nick Ut, showcasing the tragic human cost of war. Together with Kim Phuc, we will explore the enduring legacy and significance of this photograph, examining its impact on public perception of war, its role in shaping anti-war movements, and its continued relevance in today's global discourse on peace and reconciliation. The panel will give different perspectives on the power of imagery in historical memory and the journey of healing and advocacy that followed one of history's most turbulent periods.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Media, Conflict, Vietnam War, and Photojournalism
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

1906. Legacies of the Vietnam War - Scars of War in Indochina

Author:: George Black, Elizabeth Becker, Sera Koulabdara, and Peter Osnos
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: What are the impacts and lasting effects of the bombardments of Agent Orange, napalm, and other explosive ordnance on Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam? How has this affected the country and its people? What can we learn from what has happened and how do we move forward from here? In this panel, we get perspectives from leaders who have insider knowledge on the legacies of war.
Topic:: Vietnam War, Post-Conflict, Napalm, and Agent Orange
Political Geography:: Vietnam, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, and Laos

1907. Legacies of the Vietnam War - War Reporting: Lessons from Vietnam

Author:: Peter Arnett, Fox Butterfield, Edith Lederer, Nancy Trieu Giang Bui, Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, and James Bennet
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: How did the harsh reality of the Vietnam War change war reporting, and how did these changes affect reporting for generations to come? What lessons in Vietnam remain relevant in today's war coverage? This panel features renowned Vietnam War journalists Peter Arnett, Fox Butterfield, Edith Lederer, and Nancy Trieu Giang Bui, as they explore the evolution of war reporting from the Vietnam War to contemporary conflicts. Through their firsthand experiences, the panelists will discuss the challenges, ethical dilemmas, and transformative lessons learned in the field. This discussion hopes to shed light on the significant impact of journalism in times of war and how historical insights can guide today's war correspondents.
Topic:: Media, Ethics, Conflict, Journalism, and Vietnam War
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

1908. Korea: A New History of South and North – A Book Talk by Victor Cha and Ramon Pacheco Pardo

Author:: Victor D. Cha, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, and Jonathan Corrado
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Victor Cha and Ramon Pacheco Pardo will talk about their new book, Korea: A New History of South and North, which charts the balance of power politics that ravaged Korea in the late 19th-early 20th centuries, the division of the two Koreas and their divergent paths thereafter. The book also includes original data on unification and how the great powers view a future single Korea.
Topic:: History, Power Politics, Conflict, Unification, and Book Talk
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

1909. Mainline Islam: Islamic Associational Life in Indonesia

Author:: Kevin W. Fogg and Sidney Jone
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Indonesian Islam has a unique structure in its associational life, in the form of mass Islamic organizations. The most well-known of these, NU and Muhammadiyah, are frequently heralded by politicians and scholars as pillars of religious life and civil society in Indonesia, but there are many similar organizations that function on a provincial or regional level in a similar capacity. This project draws in a comparative study of three regional mass Islamic organizations—Jamiyatul Washliyah founded in Medan, Nahdlatul Ulama based on Lombok, and Alkhairaat headquartered in Palu—to draw broader conclusions about the nature of Islamic associational life in Indonesia, how Indonesian organizations differ from Islamic groups in other countries, and how Islamic organizations in Indonesia have changed over the last century. The project also uses a comparison with American Protestantism, the so-called “Mainline Protestant Denominations,” to articulate a category of organization that is normative in Indonesia but unknown elsewhere in the Islamic world: “mainline” Islamic organizations.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Domestic Politics, and Religious Organizations
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

1910. Is Guanxi Changing? Referral Hiring and Social Networks in China

Author:: Elena Obukhova and Yao Lu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: What is the role of guanxi in China today? To answer this question, Professor Elena Obukhova examines the relationship between social networks and referral hiring. In the first study, she compares China and the US. In the second study, she explores differences between China’s provinces. This event is part of the 2023-2024 lecture series on “Labor Market Transformations in China" and is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by Columbia's China Center for Social Policy.
Topic:: Markets, Labor Issues, Social Networks, and Hiring
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

1911. Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control

Author:: Dali Yang, Qin Gao, Junyan Jiang, and Xiaobo Lü
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic, which began as an outbreak in Wuhan in late 2019, has claimed millions of lives and caused unprecedented disruptions. Despite its generation-defining significance, there has been a surprising lack of independent research examining the decisions and measures implemented in the weeks leading up to the Wuhan lockdown, as well as the missteps and shortcomings that allowed the novel coronavirus to spread with minimal hindrance. In this book talk, Wuhan: How the COVID-19 Outbreak in China Spiraled Out of Control, Dali L. Yang scrutinizes China's emergency response to the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan, delving into the government's handling of epidemic information and the decisions that influenced the scale and scope of the outbreak. Yang's research reveals that China's health decision-makers and experts had an excellent head start when they implemented a health emergency action program to respond to the outbreak at the end of December 2019. With granular detail and compelling immediacy, Yang investigates the political and bureaucratic processes that hindered information flows and sharing, as well as the cognitive framework that limited understanding of the virus's contagiousness and hampered effective decisions and enabled the outbreak to spiral out of control.
Topic:: Government, Crisis Management, Bureaucracy, COVID-19, Decision-Making, Zero-COVID, and Emergencies
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1912. China and Latin America: A New Assessment

Author:: Parsifal D'Sola Alvarado and Xiaobo Lü
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Parsifal D'Sola, a MARSEA alum, will deliver a presentation offering a general overview of the current state and prospective trends in China-Latin America relations. The talk will explore the evolving interactions and strategic dynamics between China and Latin American countries, highlighting developments over the past two decades. Key areas of discussion include the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America and the peripheral effects of US-China tensions on the region. An important aspect of the presentation will be examining the diverse perceptions of China across Latin American countries and how these views influence bilateral relations and policy decisions. D'Sola will also share his thoughts on future trends, offering a broad perspective on the likely course of China's engagement with Latin America in the coming years. Speaker's Bio: Parsifal D’Sola is the founder and executive director of the Andres Bello Foundation – China Latin America Research Center in Bogota, Colombia. He is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Parsifal is a Chinese foreign policy analyst specializing in Sino-Latin American relations with a focus on Venezuela. Between 2019 and 2020, he acted as Chinese foreign policy advisor to the Foreign Affairs Minister of the Interim Government of Venezuela. He holds a BS in Telecommunications Engineering from Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, an MA in East Asian Studies from Columbia University, an MSc in International Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London University, and an advance language diploma from Beijing Language and Culture University.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

1913. The White Crane of Alagśa: Legends of the Sixth Dalai Lama in Mongolia

Author:: Sangseraima Ujeed and Gray Tuttle
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: The Sixth Dalai Lama Tsangyang Gyatso (1683-1706/46) was recognized in secrecy, lived in controversy, and passed out of history in mystery. The popular tradition holds that he died whilst travelling to Beijing. Yet in some parts of Mongolia, it is believed that the exiled Sixth Dalai Lama escaped his captors and lived out his life in the dessert Gobi region of Alagśa, Inner Mongolia. To this day in Alagśa, the figure of the Sixth Dalai Lama still serves as a central pillar of the Alagśan identity, religion, and cultural pride among the local Mongolian population. Based on new materials in the form of oral histories, local legends, folk songs, poems, and textual sources which I collected about the Sixth Dalai Lama and the reincarnation of the Desi Sanggye Gyatso in Alagśa during a research trip in 2019, this paper will explore the formation of religio-cultural identity and the invention of tradition in the Alagśa during the early eighteenth century. This is not a paper that tries to solve the mystery of Tsangyang Gyatso’s death, but rather, one that explores the role Tsangyang Gyatso played for the Alagśa Mongols in creating narratives of identity and their realm Alagśa as an authentic Buddhist central place. This is a story of how Tsangyang Gyatso, his identities, and his interpersonal relationships were reborn in Alagśa and the role he played in consolidating Alagśa’s place within the wider geopolitical spheres of the cosmopolitan Buddhist world that spanned the Himalayas, Inner Asia, and the Qing.
Topic:: Religion, History, Geopolitics, Identity, Tradition, Dalai Lama, and Reincarnation
Political Geography:: China, Mongolia, and Asia

1914. Japan’s Strategic Cooperation with NATO: Connectivity between Ukraine and Taiwan Crises

Author:: Tomonori Yoshizaki and Ayumi Teraoka
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: China’s global outreach and the War in Ukraine have pushed U.S. allies in Asia and Europe closer in recent years. Professor Tomonori Yoshizaki of Tokyo University of Foreign Studies (TUFS), former Vice President of the National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) of the Japanese Ministry of Defense, will help us understand the motivations behind the developing ties between Japan and NATO. He will explore the prospects of their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and beyond and conclude by offering implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

1915. Freedom Undone: The Assault on Liberal Values and Institutions in Hong Kong

Author:: Michael Davis and Junyan Jiang
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: A lot has been written about the 2019 protests in Hong Kong and the aggressive police crackdown offered in response. Much less has been written about the more severe assault on liberal values and institutions that followed. In his new book Professor Davis takes a forensic look at both the growing Beijing intervention in Hong Kong affairs from the handover forward and its culmination in the more severe crackdown that followed the 2019 protest, the 2020 passage of the National Security Law, and the 2021 Beijing imposition of a patriots-only electoral system. This talk will highlight the comprehensive impact of these developments on Hong Kong’s rule of law, its criminal justice system, and the many freedoms for which the vibrant city was long known—often previously ranking among the highest in the world. The diminution of basic freedoms has touched nearly all sectors of society, including education, the media, public broadcasting, civil society organizations, legal services, and so on. The city long known for a vibrant public debate, its vigorous media landscape, and some of the largest non-violent protests in the world has gone silent. The sheer comprehensiveness of this imposition raises questions not only for Hong Kong but for liberal democratic values globally, as autocratic regimes such as the PRC seek to advance their illiberal agenda.
Topic:: Protests, Institutions, Liberalism, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Hong Kong

1916. Outsourcing Repression: Everyday State Power in Contemporary China

Author:: Lynette Ong and Junyan Jiang
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: How do states coerce citizens into compliance while simultaneously minimizing backlash? In Outsourcing Repression, Lynette Ong examines how the Chinese state engages nonstate actors, from violent street gangsters to nonviolent grassroots brokers, to coerce and mobilize the masses to pursue its ambitious urbanization project. She draws on ethnographic research conducted annually from 2011 to 2019--the years from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping, a unique and original event dataset, and a collection of government regulations in a study of everyday land grabs and housing demolition in China. Theorizing a counterintuitive form of repression that reduces resistance and backlash, Ong invites the reader to reimagine the new ground state power credibly occupies. Everyday state power is quotidian power acquired through society by penetrating nonstate territories and mobilizing the masses within. After the book’s publication, Lynette has extended the arguments to explain the success, failure, and implications of China’s Zero-Covid Policy in the Journal of Democracy, Foreign Affairs and the Economist etc. Outsourcing Repression has won the American Sociology Association’s Distinguished Contribution to Scholarship in Political Sociology, and the Human Rights Best Book Awards from the American Political Science Association, the American Sociological Association, and the International Studies Association.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Governance, State, Coercion, Zero-COVID, and State Power
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1917. How does the attempted assassination of Trump affect the American political landscape?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On July 13, 2024, former U.S. President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt during an election rally in Pennsylvania. This incident occurred just days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Trump is anticipated to be officially nominated as the party’s candidate for the November elections. The attempt resulted in Trump being grazed by a bullet on his ear. Following the incident, he posted on his "Truth Social" platform: "A bullet grazed the upper part of my right ear." The Secret Service announced in a statement that one attendee was killed, two others were critically injured, and the assassin was also killed. It is important to note that this is not the first instance of a failed assassination attempt on Trump. Each attempt came perilously close to succeeding, but the assailants were thwarted at the last moment.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Assassination
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1918. Why has the Global Demand for Uranium Increased Recently?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: As the world transitions to electricity to combat climate change, nuclear energy is poised to become an increasingly vital component of the global energy mix. New nuclear power projects have recently reached unprecedented levels, with more than 20 countries pledging to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. China alone plans to construct at least 150 new reactors in the next 15 years, investing over USD 440 billion. India has also announced ambitious plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 6,780 megawatts to 22,480 megawatts by 2031. This surge in nuclear energy development persists despite several factors complicating the rise of uranium as a coveted metal. Chief among these are: the significant and steady decline in investment in uranium exploration and mine development over the past decade, particularly following the Fukushima incident in 2011; governments' focus on solar and wind energy; and the recent Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which have complicated the process of importing Russian uranium (especially with a complete ban on imports to the United States). Additionally, high inflation and interest rates have led to increased costs for new and existing uranium mining projects. Furthermore, conflicts in Niger have resulted in the loss of 5% of the world's uranium supply, representing more than 24% of the European Union's uranium imports.
Topic:: Climate Change, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1919. Analyzing How the Tools of the British Far-Right Have Evolved

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Since July 30, 2024, several British cities and towns have been gripped by a wave of far-right violence described as the worst since World War II. This outbreak followed the killing of three girls in a knife attack at a children's party in Southport, northwest Britain. The violence involved a series of criminal and inflammatory actions in what appear to be coordinated efforts to thwart immigration and intimidate minorities in Britain. This reflects the British far-right's ability to utilize and even evolve its traditional tools to adapt to the current context and available resources.
Topic:: Immigration, Violence, Far Right, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

1920. What are the Potential Consequences of the Current Crisis in Bangladesh?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The sudden collapse of Sheikh Hasina's government after 15 years in power has left a dangerous void in Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million people. The long-standing Prime Minister resigned following violent demonstrations and fled to neighboring India after protesters stormed her official residence. The situation on the ground has become volatile amidst the power vacuum. The military has since appointed a caretaker government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus, who was previously considered an opponent by Hasina's Awami League government and was accused of corruption. The conviction, however, was overturned by the court following the collapse of the Awami League's rule and Hasina's escape. The key question now is whether the military will play a role in the country's future or if Yunus, in collaboration with the nascent student movement, can tackle the political, economic, and regional challenges facing Bangladesh—especially since the economist has announced his intention to call for general elections after a period of "stability."
Topic:: Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Crisis Management, Civil Unrest, Military, and Sheikh Hasina
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

1921. Outlook 2030 Brief: The U.S. and International Education

Author:: Allan E. Goodman and Mirka Martel
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: For over a century, the United States has been the leading destination for international students. Unlike higher education systems elsewhere, the U.S. maintains a decentralized public and private tertiary education system where international students may apply and enroll at the state, city, and local levels. This annual brief presents key trends in academic mobility to the United States, comparing annual findings to our projections, and suggestions for campus planning to accommodate the anticipated growth in international students.
Topic:: Education, Higher Education, Students, and International Exchange
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1922. Spring 2024 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange

Author:: Mirka Martel
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: The Spring 2024 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange continues the commitment of the Institute of International Education (IIE) to map the current state of international educational exchange to and from the United States. The report presents data from 662 U.S. higher education institutions in two sections: (1) current trends in international students studying at U.S. institutions in spring 2024 and recruitment patterns for prospective students and (2) the realities of U.S. study abroad ahead of academic year 2024/25.
Topic:: Education, Students, International Exchange, and Academic Exchange
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1923. China’s Responsibility, and Ours: The Persecution and Neglect of Stateless North Korean Children

Author:: Rob York, Hannah Cole, and Kaylin Kim
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: What happens to the children of North Korean women who are born in China? What happens when they remain in China, or when they escape to other countries? It is believed that as many as 300,000 North Koreans have fled the country—most of them since the famine of the 1990s, and most of them women. To address China’s “bare branches”—its much larger population of young men than young women—North Korean women are often sold to young Chinese men as brides. The children of these brides will be born stateless, lack legal rights, and face the ever-present danger of their mothers’ deportation back to North Korea because they are considered illegal immigrants in China. These unique challenges persist, despite China being a party to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, among other international treaties. Even those children that eventually escape to third-party countries are haunted by their status, as their statelessness caused legal hindrances to their ability to settle and, specifically in South Korea, deprives them of government assistance. This study documents the treatment of “stateless” children born to North Korean and Chinese parents. It delineates the factors that contribute to their mistreatment—China’s unwillingness to anger the North Korean government, South Korea’s growing disinterest in North Korean defectors, and a lack of formal networks for North Korean defectors elsewhere. It further finds that, with China openly hostile toward “meddling” in its internal affairs, the most likely source of relief for these children will be a change in attitudes among South Koreans, the United States, and their allies and partners, resulting in conscious effort by their governments and civil societies to help them, both financially and in assisting with their assimilation.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Children, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

1924. Taiwan Strait’s Echo in Korean Peninsula Security and the US-ROK Alliance

Author:: Yerin Yoon
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In recent years, the geopolitical landscape of East Asia has undergone significant shifts, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a pivotal point of great power competition and regional instability. This paper delves into the intricate dynamics in this evolving scenario, examining the multifaceted implications of Taiwan contingencies and their ripple effects on the security of the Korean Peninsula and the longstanding US-ROK alliance. This study highlights the need for Korea to build strategic plans for a Taiwan contingency by examining the correlation between plausible scenarios and the security challenges of the Korean Peninsula. This paper explores the broader implications of a Taiwan contingency within the context of great power rivalry and international relations. Moreover, it analyzes specific scenarios related to the Korean Peninsula that could unfold around Taiwan, such as maritime blockades and potential Chinese armed attacks on Taiwanese territory. It then emphasizes the influence of these scenarios on the Korean Peninsula, revealing a complex web of economic security, diplomatic, and military challenges. The article thereafter turns its attention to the US-ROK alliance essential to regional security in East Asia. This analysis examines the strategic ramifications of the relocation of US Forces Korea (USFK) and the possible engagement of the ROK military to assess the potential responses by the US-ROK alliance to the Taiwan crisis. It also highlights how crucial it is to comprehend each of the points of view held by the US and the ROK, underscoring the complex intricacies of the alliance. Finally, the paper proposes strategic policy recommendations to enhance Korea’s role in regional security. This includes strategies for maritime security, military readiness against conventional threats, and the strengthening of trilateral relationships with the US and Japan, providing a proactive roadmap for Korea’s foreign and defense policy.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

1925. Gender in Strategic Competition: A Non-Traditional Strategy for Building Resilience in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Charity Borg
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Today’s era is defined by strategic competition with “autocrats [who] are working overtime to undermine democracy and export a model of governance marked by repression at home and coercion abroad.”[1] The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the leading autocratic force, operating with both the intent to reshape the democratic rules-based international order and the resources to advance those aims. States interested in upholding the international rules-based order must enhance their ability to withstand PRC coercion and invest in cultivating a values-based security alliance against the spread of authoritarianism. International collaboration on the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda offers a low-cost, high-return opportunity to bolster national and regional resistance to authoritarian coercion while building a coalition of like-minded allies and partners. Increasing national resilience and building alliances that center on enhancing the security of women is a data-backed approach that ensures elevated state stability, democracy, and economic prosperity while increasing the likelihood of a coalition’s willingness to defend the current international rules-based order from those who seek to dismantle it. An overwhelming body of empirical analysis demonstrates a significant correlation between the security of women and the democratic or authoritarian tendencies of a state. That same analysis also finds that women’s security is a precondition for a state’s level of democracy. Otherwise stated, countries with higher levels of gender equality are more democratic, less corrupt, and more stable. Whereas “states with higher levels of violence against women are less peaceful [internally and] internationally, less compliant with international norms, and less likely to have good relations with neighboring states,” they are also more likely to align with autocratic governance structures.[1] Authoritarian states such as the PRC understand the benefits of empowered societies, which is why their actions on domestic and international fronts actively seek to suppress women. They fear that like-minded allies and partners will successfully improve security for fifty percent of the population and, as a result, will ultimately tip the scales of power and influence to preserve the values-based international order they desire to uproot. Interest and investment in the WPS agenda are growing around the globe, but not fast enough. Thus far, 18 Indo-Pacific states and one regional organization have sought meaningful engagement and integration of the WPS agenda by various means, opening a door for cooperation across the spectrum of civil, diplomatic, and military security cooperation engagements.[2] However, several transformative policy and operational measures must be implemented to achieve the desired end states. To be transformative and enable lasting change in governmental and national behavior, the thoughtful implementation of the WPS agenda at all levels, from national and subnational to the community and household, is required. First, domestic and international policymakers need to clearly define the security of women as a national security imperative. Second, implementing WPS in the defense sector should focus on training defense personnel to apply a gender perspective to enhance mission effectiveness. Last, those advancing WPS must take an inclusive, context-specific, and localized approach to its integration. To defend the current rules-based international order, like-minded countries must accelerate change and follow through by investing in women’s security.
Topic:: Security, Investment, Strategic Competition, Resilience, Gender, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

1926. North Korea is Winning the Information War

Author:: Jonathan Corrado, Chelsie Alexandre, and Alexander Tufto
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The outside world has been presented with two contradictory images of North Korea’s younger generation. In the outside media, youth are portrayed as rebellious and radical, ignoring the Kim regime’s increasingly harsh crackdowns on foreign media and trends, and instead toting the latest South Korean fashion trends and adopting South Korean lingo. Meanwhile, state propaganda pushes the narrative that North Korean youth are extremely devoted to Kim Jong Un and the regime. Both conceptions of North Korea’s younger generation fail to acknowledge a more complex reality. Kim Jong Un understands the importance of winning over the younger generation to ensure his regime’s survival. Since coming into power, Kim has increased the severity of punishments for importing, distributing, and consuming foreign media. This strangled information environment amplifies the efficacy of a youth loyalty campaign designed to bear hug the younger generation. As a consequence, when compared with older cohorts, North Korean youth have a more favorable view of the regime, juche ideology, and Kim Jong Un himself. In short, the campaign is working. A reinvigorated foreign media distribution strategy is needed to break the impasse and win the battle over hearts and minds. Despite the dangers, North Koreans remain highly interested in foreign media. Research shows that those who consume tend to feel more fondly about South Korea and view the North Korean regime critically. Foreign media provides a powerful basis to cross check regime propaganda and can even lay the foundation for a shared understanding of concepts like human rights and civil society. A reinvigorated strategy should focus on content curation and innovative dissemination methods to maximize utility and minimize blowback for end users in North Korea.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Information Warfare
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

1927. Enhancing the Cooperation between the US and Its Allies in the Mekong Subregion

Author:: Sach Nguyen
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The Mekong subregion is experiencing heightened geopolitical competition between the US and China, representing a clash between the international rules-based order and a China-led order. While the US and its allies advocate for the rules-based order, China’s intentions for its own order in the region are debated. China’s increased presence and influence in the Mekong subregion, particularly through upstream control of the Mekong water, reflect its pursuit of this order. In response, the US and its allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have strengthened cooperation with one another to promote a rules-based system. Despite existing coordination, there is potential for further collaboration to enhance their role in mainland Southeast Asia. Stability and prosperity in the Mekong subregion are being challenged. Weakening international norms in governing transboundary waters threaten downstream countries’ security and livelihoods, exacerbated by climate change-induced droughts. China’s growing engagement in the region aims to establish its sphere of influence, primarily through economic development projects like dams and railways, raising concerns over environmental impacts and expanding Chinese influence. Additionally, non-traditional security threats such as the COVID-19 pandemic, cyber security, and human trafficking further complicate the region’s situation. The engagement of the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion is multifaceted, driven by various interests but united in countering China’s growing influence. The US, through initiatives like the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) and later the Mekong-US Partnership, seeks to maintain its relevance and preeminence in the region. Japan, South Korea, and Australia also engage with the subregion, for economic interests and to counterbalance China. Japan, for instance, aims to establish production bases and balance China’s influence through high-standard infrastructure projects. South Korea focuses on economic development and diversification of trade amid US-China tensions, while Australia prioritizes promoting a rules-based order and addressing non-traditional security threats. Despite differences in approach, the US and its allies collaborate through platforms like the Friends of the Mekong and initiatives such as the Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, challenges remain in realizing these initiatives, particularly in engaging the private sector and ensuring concrete outcomes amidst competing interests and complex negotiations. Recommendations for enhancing cooperation between the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion include strengthening international norms and rules, expanding economic infrastructure projects, focusing on non-traditional security issues, and fostering track 1.5 and track 2 diplomacy to promote mutual understanding and collaboration among all stakeholders, including governments, academia, businesses, and civil society organizations. These efforts, facilitated by the US and its allies, can contribute to a more stable and prosperous Mekong subregion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Geopolitics, International Order, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and Mekong River

1928. New Caledonia and French Polynesia: New Opportunities Amid Great Power Competition

Author:: Raihaamana Tevahitua
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: New Caledonia and French Polynesia, like to other Oceanian nations, are gaining heightened significance within the Indo-Pacific framework. Consequently, both non-sovereign territories have improved leverage to assert their priorities in relation to the central French state. Simultaneously, they are increasingly engaging with foreign partners under the guidance of France. This paper offers recommendations for how these territories can expand their influence in this era of Great Power competition.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Geopolitics, and International Competition
Political Geography:: New Caledonia, Indo-Pacific, Oceania, and French Overseas Territories

1929. A Subdued Environment and Missed Opportunities

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Chinese diplomacy toward the Korean Peninsula in late 2023 sputtered forward, driven more by a calendar of bilateral anniversaries with North Korea and multilateral gatherings involving South Korea than any sense of strategic purpose. Both relationships seemed preoccupied with off-stage developments such as the September summit between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin and the momentum of US-Japan-South Korea trilateral relations, rather than any inherent dynamism of their own. Still, regular Sino-North Korean bilateral exchanges ahead of the 75th anniversary of the bilateral relationship and Sino-South Korean bilateral economic dialogues provide opportunities to overcome resistance and sustain progress in the face of deepening major power rivalries. Senior-level dialogues between China and North Korea occurred on North Korea’s 75th founding anniversary in September, with the visit of Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong to Pyongyang, a visit that occurred against the backdrop of the second US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group meeting, North Korea’s first successful indigenous satellite launch, and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Pak Myong Ho’s visit to Beijing. Meanwhile, ministerial and working-level economic dialogues on issues such as supply-chain stability, export controls, and trade facilitation continued between China and South Korea, punctuated by a notable bilateral exchange between Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in late September on the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou. But these exchanges did not generate the traction necessary for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to have substantive bilateral meetings with President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in San Francisco in November. Bilateral and trilateral foreign ministerial meetings in Busan between South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and counterparts Wang Yi and Kamikawa Yoko—the first in four years—failed to generate sufficient momentum to set a date for the resumption of China-Japan-South Korea summitry. Instead, the resumption of China-South Korea or China-Japan-South Korea summitry will depend on developments in 2024.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Dialogue, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, South Korea, and North Korea

1930. Both Koreas Ditch Their Border Accord

Author:: Aidan Foster-Career
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The last third of 2023 was eventful in Korea, especially the two final months. Fall found South Koreans preoccupied with events elsewhere, and their implications for the peninsula. In September, Kim Jong Un’s Siberian summit with Vladimir Putin prompted worries as to how closer Pyongyang-Moscow military ties might affect the ROK. In October, Hamas’ shocking attack on Israel added a new layer of alarm, warranted or otherwise. President Yoon Suk Yeol was among those expressing fear that the DPRK might launch a similar surprise assault. He soon had less hypothetical concerns. In November, in response to Pyongyang’s successful launch (following two earlier failures) of a military reconnaissance satellite, Seoul partially suspended 2018’s inter-Korean military accord—whereupon the North predictably scrapped it entirely. Tensions grew as both sides rearmed at the ironically named Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and talked tough — none tougher than Kim Jong Un, who spoke openly of occupying the South. As the year ended, Kim declared a major change in DPRK doctrine. Dropping its longstanding lip service to reunification, the North now regards the peninsular situation as “relations between two belligerent states.” The implications of this shift remain to be seen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Borders, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

1931. Taiwan Voters Choose Independence

Author:: David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Taiwan’s election campaign has concluded. Voters went to the polls on Jan. 13. As has been the case in almost every election, cross-Strait relations with China were the central issue, a secondary issue being President Tsai Ing-wen’s management of the economy. The outcome of the election will largely dictate the course of Taiwan-China relations over at least the next four years. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate and President Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor, William Lai Ching-te, the eventual winner, proclaims that Taiwan is already independent as the Republic of China. It should continue to diversify economic linkages away from China, strengthen military deterrence, and hope that China will eventually offer talks without one-China preconditions. The opposition Kuomintang candidate, Hou Yu-ih, called for expanded cross-Strait economic ties and dialogue with China under the one-China banner to reduce tensions while Taiwan also builds its military deterrence. China has deployed economic sticks, gray-zone military intimidation, and fake news to influence the election. Washington has expanded its support for Taiwan’s self-defense, though less vigorously than Republican critics in Congress would like. Taiwan and the US have continued to expand trade ties in ways that will benefit Taiwan businesses though without tariff concessions that Taiwan eagerly wants. Now that Taiwan voters have elected William Lai, as the polls predicted, China will likely respond with increasing coercion. Had Hou Yu-ih been victorious, his challenge would have been to navigate between Beijing’s pressure for cross-Strait concessions and Washington’s suspicions of any such steps by Taiwan.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Voting, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

1932. Biden-Xi Woodside Summit and the Slow Rehabilitation of US-PRC Ties

Author:: Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The “guardrails” that President Biden and President Xi envisaged in Bali in November 2022 began to be emplaced at their November 2023 summit in Woodside, California. In-person, leader-led communication was deepened, reassurances exchanged, and practical—albeit modest—“deliverables” locked down on several fronts, including restarting mil-mil communications, cracking down on fentanyl precursors, addressing the national security harms of artificial intelligence (AI), and increased people-to-people exchanges. The establishment of numerous bilateral working groups will ensure an almost full plate of across-the-board consultations in 2024 as well as the means to troubleshoot irritants on short notice. As stabilizing as the Woodside summit was, it failed to deflect the US-PRC relationship from its larger overall trajectory of “selective decoupling” across a range of advanced technologies and frontier industries (microelectronics; quantum; AI; biomanufacturing; clean energy). Strategic trade controls and other competitive actions were doubled down upon. With a pivotal US presidential election looming in 2024, questions abound on the longer-term durability of a rehabilitating US-PRC relationship.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Trade, Xi Jinping, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1933. Beijing Moderates Criticisms Selectively

Author:: Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Beijing in this reporting period moderated often shrill rhetoric of the past two years criticizing Joseph Biden administration advances and regional governments cooperating with the US. Emphasizing China’s positive contributions to regional economic growth, Beijing stressed its flexibility, said to be different from Washington in not pressing regional states to choose between the US and China, even as it demonstrated ambitions to develop a new regional and global order favorable to itself. Nevertheless, glaring exceptions included egregious pressures to compel deference to China’s claims in the South China Sea, harsh criticism of the Philippines and Japan cooperating closely with the United States, as well as authoritative foreign policy statements giving regional governments little choice between two paths forward: cooperation with an avowedly beneficial China or America’s purported exploitative, divisive and destructive initiatives. Regarding the Philippines, an unprecedented show of support by the US for the territorial claims of its treaty ally resulted in an equally unprecedented pushback from Beijing.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

1934. Strategic Dynamism: 50th Anniversary of Relations and New Security Ties

Author:: Kei Koga
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Japan-Southeast Asia relations marked two milestones in 2023-24. The first was the 50th anniversary of Japan-ASEAN Relations, during which Japan and ASEAN emphasized an equal partnership by adopting the keyword “co-creation” to promote economic prosperity and security stability in Southeast Asia and beyond. The second is strengthening Japan-Philippines bilateral strategic ties, not only bilaterally, but also trilaterally with the United States and quadrilaterally with Australia. Japan continuously engages with other Southeast Asian states and strengthens ties with ASEAN to reinforce ASEAN Centrality and unity, yet a challenge remains: how Japan can design a regional architecture in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific by clarifying the roles and division of labor among those institutions.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, ASEAN, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Southeast Asia

1935. Taiwan and China—Steady As She Goes

Author:: David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: As 2024 dawned, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated in his New Year Address that Taiwan must unify with China. In her New Year Address, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, with the election of her successor only 14 days away, repeated her offer to meet China on the basis of equality, mutual respect, and without preconditions, echoing themes dating back to her first inaugural address in 2016. On Jan. 14, Tsai’s chosen successor, Vice President Lai Ching-te, won an unprecedented third successive term for the Democratic Progressive Party, promising to uphold the independence of the Republic of China, but the party lost its majority in the legislature. A month later, two Chinese fishermen operating illegally near Kinmen Island died when their boat capsized as they were pursued by the Taiwan Coast Guard. Five days later, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel boarded and inspected a Taiwanese tour boat near Kinmen. Tensions grew but they did not boil over. On Jan. 30, China unilaterally moved its M503 civil aviation flight route closer to the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Premier Li Qiang included the obligatory call for Taiwan reunification in his Work Report to China’s National People’s Congress (NPC). Some analysts found that and other NPC references to Taiwan more strident than in recent years, but any change in tone was subtle. In apparent retaliation for Lai’s electoral victory, China persuaded Nauru to switch diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China even as Taiwan continued to strengthen unofficial relations with larger powers. These Taiwan efforts were supported by US President Biden, who used a trilateral meeting with Japan and the Philippines to call for cross-Strait stability. Taiwan’s continuing negotiation with the US of a 21st Century Trade Initiative and TSMC’s decision to expand new facilities under construction in Arizona exemplified Taiwan’s continuing diversification of economic linkages away from China. President-elect Lai will be inaugurated on May 20; his inaugural speech and China’s response could portend the future course of cross-Strait relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Regional Security, and Cross-Strait Relations
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

1936. China’s New Foreign Policy Moderation—Mixed Regional Implications

Author:: Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Incorporating major foreign policy initiatives of leader Xi Jinping, Beijing completed its effort from the past two years with instructions in January on China’s new approach to foreign affairs to Chinese foreign policy officials and others concerned. The new approach added authority and momentum to Beijing’s emphasis since Xi’s summit with US President Joe Biden last November on greater Chinese moderation and restraint as a “responsible” great power pursuing peace and development in dealing with Southeast Asian neighbors and elsewhere. Nevertheless, Beijing remains selective in how it applies moderation, and the record of the past two years shows great swings between moderation and truculence in its approach to foreign affairs, depending on circumstances which remain subject to change. The success of China’s regional importance showed in Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies annual survey of regional elites with China viewed as both the leading economic and political-security power, overshadowing the United States, and the judgment that if forced to choose between them, more respondents would select China than the United States. Caveats to these positives for China include continuing strong regional concerns over China’s ambitions in Southeast Asia and the fact that the survey came during the height of the war in Gaza by Israel, which is supported by the US and viewed very negatively in the region. Meanwhile, the defiance of the Philippines, with strong military and political support from the United States, Japan, Australia, India, and other allies and partners, against coercive measures in the disputed South China Sea represented a major test of China’s avowed “restraint” in dealing with foreign differences.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China and Southeast Asia

1937. Weathering the Crisis

Author:: Akhil Ramesh and Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: For the US-India bilateral relationship, the first four months of 2024 was a repeat of the quarters of the last three years. Differences in attitudes toward Cold-War era partnerships surfaced and upset the calm in bilateral relations. Still, there were significant strides in the economic and trade front. The dispute over the killing in Canada of a Khalistan separatist designated a terrorist by India marred the security partnership. Still, Washington continued diplomatically to support India vis-à-vis China’s provocations such as bestowing Chinese names on Indian towns. Visits by top American military brass underscored the growing security cooperation between the two democracies. The nature of electoral democracy, though, created some diplomatic tension. While heated rhetoric and polemical campaign statements in India provided fodder for the Western press to question the supposed “values-based” partnership with India, President Joe Biden’s suggestion that Japan and India were as xenophobic and anti-immigrant as Russia and China angered many in India. These episodes were minor squalls compared to the hurricanes the bilateral relationship has endured over the last 50 or 60 years. While elections and security divergences made headlines, the relationship continued to build on pillars of trade and technology cooperation.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Trade
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

1938. Ties Stabilize While Negative Undercurrents Deepen

Author:: Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: US-China relations were marked by a paradox during the first trimester of 2024. On the one hand, a distinct stabilization was evident in ties. The two sides made concerted efforts to translate their leaders’ ‘San Francisco Vision’ into reality. Cabinet officials exchanged visits across the Pacific, working groups and dialogue mechanisms met in earnest and produced outcomes, functional cooperation was deepened, sensitive issues such as Taiwan were carefully managed, and effort was devoted to improving the relationship’s political optics. On the other hand, the negative tendencies in ties continued to deepen. Both sides introduced additional selective decoupling as well as cybersecurity measures in key information and communications technology and services sectors, with US actions bearing the signs of desinicization—rather than mere decoupling—of relevant supply chains. The chasm in strategic perception remained as wide as before. In sum, the “new normal” in US-China relations continued to take form, one piece at a time. What a difference a year makes. At this time in late-April last year, the US and China were barely communicating, still smarting from the balloon incident of February 2023. It was not until US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CPC Central Foreign Affairs Commission Director Wang Yi met in Vienna in mid-May 2023 that a semblance of normality began to be restored to the relationship. Twelve months on, there has been an almost across-the-board restoration of communication channels, a deepening of functional cooperation across issues areas, and a concerted effort to manage the political optics of the relationship for the better – this, despite deep differences in strategic perception between the two sides.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1939. The Children of War

Author:: Lila Roldán Vázquez
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:: Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shaken the world order and has seriously disrupted international peace and security. The geopolitical impact, the causes of the war and the reasons invoked to justify the armed aggression have been widely discussed. Among the many facets of the war, there is one issue that requires special attention, since it constitutes, without a doubt, one of its most serious consequences: the death of hundreds of children and the abduction of thousands of them, in flagrant violation of humanitarian law. We aim to analyze the circumstances and consequences of these actions, which may constitute a war crime, and to evaluate their impact in the medium and the long term.
Topic:: Security, International Law, Children, Civilians, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1940. The Role of Multilateral Development Banks in Financing Energy Transition in South America

Author:: Maria Elena Rodriguez, Rafaela Mello Rodrigues de Sá, Octávio Henrique Alves Costa de Oliveira, and Renan Guimarães Canellas de Oliveira
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:: With the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world institutionalized the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2ºC, based on efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change. It is in this context that the actors involved presented their commitments to establish policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions in different sectors of the economy. This process of reducing emissions can be called decarbonization and consists of replacing fossil energy sources with clean renewables, in addition to encouraging the use of electrification technology, such as electric cars. This movement promotes transformation toward a low-carbon economy in various sectors. In the energy sector, this transformation is called the clean energy transition, as it attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy matrix. For this to happen, increasing the use of renewables over using fossil fuels such as coal and oil is encouraged.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Finance, Multilateralism, Paris Agreement, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1941. Constraining Iran’s Nuclear Potential in the Absence of the JCPOA

Author:: Kelsey Davenport
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: Since 2019, Iran has significantly expanded its sensitive nuclear activities, which has irreversibly altered the pathways available to Iran if the decision were made to develop nuclear weapons. The proliferation risk posed by Iran’s nuclear advances is amplified by the monitoring gaps that Tehran created by reducing IAEA access and monitoring. Iranian officials have long denied any interest in nuclear weapons but there are new signs that Iran may rethink the prohibition on nuclear weapons if security conditions change. Iran’s technical expertise cannot be reversed, and its nuclear infrastructure is less vulnerable to attack. As a result, military strikes against Iran would set back the program, but only temporarily, and risk driving Tehran to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran has signaled its willingness to de-escalate tensions, including on its nuclear program. Leaders in Washington should seize this opportunity to incentivize Tehran to take steps that increase monitoring of its nuclear program and reduce proliferation risk. The experience of the 2015 nuclear deal demonstrated the limitations of transactional bargaining. The regional nuclear environment also has shifted since 2015 and there is an increased risk that additional states will seek to match Iran’s capabilities. The United States should be thinking now about alternative frameworks for negotiating a longer-term nuclear deal, or series of deals, that take into account Iran’s nuclear advances and mitigate regional proliferation risks.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, JCPOA, and Monitoring
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1942. Credit Rating Agencies versus the ‘Pink Tide’: Lessons from the Experiences of Brazil and Argentina

Author:: Pedro Lange Machado
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This paper examines the behaviour of credit rating agencies (CRAs) during the ebbing ‘pink tide’. It claims that the actions of S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch contributed to dismantling left-wing regimes in Latin America, to the benefit of their right-wing competitors. The methodology draws on case studies of Brazil and Argentina, where the governments of Dilma Rousseff and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner were replaced by those of Michel Temer and Mauricio Macri, respectively. The research is based on sovereign ratings, reports and press releases the agencies issued during those transitions, which are analysed in the light of critical theories of their modus operandi and confronted with the political processes unfolding in both countries. This allows us to draw conclusions that are consistent with the presented argument, thereby contributing to advance the research agenda around the CRAs and to shed light on Brazil and Argentina’s recent critical presidential transitions.
Topic:: Democracy, Economy, Credit Rating Agencies, and Pink Tide
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, and South America

1943. Dynamics and Mechanisms of Reproduction of the Ideology of Consumerism by Transnational Data Firms

Author:: Stéfano Mariotto de Moura
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Through the literature review method, this research identifies a non-exhaustive series of dynamics and mechanisms used by data companies such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, and also by the group of companies known as ‘data brokers’, for the reproduction of the ideology of consumerism. A definition for such ideology is also presented. Five dynamics and 17 mechanisms are described within these two categories. The combination of subsets of elements in the second categorization gives rise to the first. The research question addressed here is: how do transnational data companies act in the international reproduction of the ideology of consumerism? It is argued that they take advantage of a deliberate lack of interest, mainly state interest, in regulating how they operate in the International Political Economy, to capture data through general dynamics that result from the articulation of specific data capture mechanisms. Thus, these companies manage to naturalise, ideologically, the act of consuming. The general dynamics identified by the paper were five: personalisation, web concentration, architecture of choice, infrastructural imperialism, and lock-in. The phenomenon is discussed in the light of the Critical Theory of International Relations
Topic:: International Political Economy, Ideology, Consumerism, Critical Theory, and Data Firms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1944. America First: Foreign Aid in the Trump Administration

Author:: Luiza Rodrigues Mateo
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The US has led the way building the international development cooperation system and been the largest single donor for the last seven decades. Foreign aid has gone through different phases during the post-World War II period and remains an important geopolitical and geo-economic tool for 21st century USA. The Bush and Obama administrations, despite different nuances in terms of discourse and aid practices, invested in reforms to modernise aid programmes, increased funding for USAID, and created new global health, food security, and climate change programmes. Contrary to the historical trend, the Trump administration submitted budget requisitions characterised by a 30% reduction for State Department and USAID allocations. It is noteworthy that the Trump administration questioned the costs of global leadership, criticised international organizations and the sectoral allocation of funds, and made threats of cuts in aid to countries that opposed Washington’s interests. The purpose of this article is to understand how the strategy of ‘America First’ changed the strategic tripod of defence, diplomacy, and development, by analysing changes in US foreign aid in terms of available resources, recipient countries, aid modalities, and multilateral engagement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1945. The Politics of Inclusion in Peace Negotiations

Author:: Isa Mendes
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The article analyses the notion of societal inclusion in peace negotiations, a subject that has gained increasing importance in politics, policy, norm, and scholarship over the last few decades. It argues that inclusion has gone from being considered an unnecessary disturbance to a necessary one in peace processes, especially due to its growing association with the fostering of political legitimacy and peace sustainability. Reducing inclusion to its usefulness, however, obscures its fundamentally political nature and implications. The article thus tracks and unpacks the discussion on societal inclusion, drawing in particular from Chantal Mouffe’s reading of political agonism and the more recent literature about agonistic peace. Ultimately, it argues that instrumentalizing and depoliticizing political inclusion is hurtful for the democratic safeguarding of previously denied rights and counter-productive even for minimal legitimizing ends. Peacebuilding benefits from agonistic standpoints of analysis by introducing, from the negotiation stage, a political model of engagement that allows in conflict by peacefully tackling it instead of sweeping it under the rug.
Topic:: Conflict, Negotiation, Inclusion, Local Peace Committees, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1946. Understanding Muslim Countries’ Support for China’s Actions in Xinjiang: A Qualitative-Comparative Analysis

Author:: Bruno Hendler, Marcelo Corrêa, and William Wuttke Martins
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This study examines why 23 Muslim-majority countries supported China at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UN/HRC) in 2019, despite allegations of human rights abuses against the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Using a fuzzy-set qualitative-comparative analysis (fsQCA), we compared the factors that led Muslim-majority and non-Muslim countries to support China. Our analysis found that Political Regime Affinity (PRA) was a necessary but not a sufficient condition for Muslim-majority countries to support China, while China’s Foreign Aid (ODA) was a necessary but not sufficient condition for non-Muslim countries. These findings suggest that ideological factors, related to the autocratic political regime (PRA), played a significant role in Muslim-majority countries’ decision to support China in the UN/HRC in 2019. However, it is important to note that other factors may have also been involved. These findings have important implications for understanding the complexities of international relations and the factors that shape states behaviour.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, UN Human Rights Council (HRC), Uyghurs, and State Behavior
Political Geography:: China and Xinjiang

1947. Metaphoricizing Modernity

Author:: Nicholas Onuf
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: We of the modern world tell stories about being modern, becoming modern. We ask where modernity is going. Two metaphorical complexes dominate these stories: We favour metaphors of life and growth; modernity has a life of its own. Or we prefer metaphors of motion and direction; modernity is a journey that takes many paths. The two complexes coexist uneasily even as they feed on each other; together they mark the modern conceit that modernity has left tradition behind. Those whom modern society has victimized, uprooted or abandoned may resist both complexes, often seeking to retrieve the metaphors of a lost, broken, misremembered or invented past. Most beneficiaries of modernity favour the metaphorical complex of life and growth—or merely take it for granted. Scholars with a critical attitude toward modernity often favour many paths and thus the metaphorical complex of motion and direction—without realizing it. Seven metaphors reveal these tendencies: boundary, break, juncture, limit, rupture, stage, transition. They also hint at a third, distinctively modern metaphorical complex. In our stories about modernity, we deploy plural versions of spatial metaphors sequenced in time: frames, boxes, compartments, or containers, and mark the sequence with metaphorical signposts: age, stage, wave, or period.
Topic:: Transition, Modernity, Metaphors, Boundary, Break, Juncture, Limit, Rupture, and Stage
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1948. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part I—Dangerous Beginnings, Peripheral (Re)Beginnings: A Reconfiguration of Nick Onuf’s Constructivism

Author:: Victor Coutinho Lage
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Nick Onuf’s constructivism is one of the most important contributions to the field of international relations in what regards the interchange between social and political theories, and philosophy. In this text, I engage with Onuf’s body of work taken as a whole. The guiding thread of the problematization I propose is woven through the attention to how Onuf’s craft and creative undertaking sets certain beginnings in the construction of his framework, and how setting them has important implications for (the conception of) ‘politics’. I would argue that Onuf’s conception of politics is sustained on two central beginnings: the conception of humans as ‘rational agents’ and the framing of what has come to be called ‘modernity’. This way, I emphasize what seems to me the most enduring contribution his body of work can provide not only to the field of international relations, but also to contemporary social and political theories more generally. The first section outlines the relation Onuf establishes between rules and rule, while the following two sections deal, in turn, with his conceptions of ‘agency’ and the ‘modern world’. My goal in these first three sections is to reconfigure Onuf’s constructivism. The fourth and final section moves ahead, giving a step further – perhaps too far, perhaps too radical –, paving a critical engagement with his work through peripheral (re)begininngs.
Topic:: Politics, Constructivism, Rationality, Modernity, and Periphery
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1949. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part II–Provincializing Metaphors, Reading (with) Onuf from Latin America

Author:: Manuela Trindade Viana and Roberto Vilchez Yamato
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: In this Dossier, four scholars reflect on Nicholas Onuf’s leading article, ‘Metaphoricizing modernity’, (re)engaging with – and celebrating – more broadly Onuf’s groundbreaking work from different places, perspectives, and angles. Part II rethinks (with) Onuf from Latin America, questioning and provincializing (certain) metaphors and metaphoricizing. Manuela Trindade Viana analyzes the conditions of possibility and the effects of ‘Colombianization’ as a powerful metaphor that came to circulate in Latin America since the late 2000s, in reference both to a specific diagnosis of a problem of violence and the solutions implemented to confront it. Challenging (certain) aspects of Onuf’s account about what metaphors do in our worlds, she argues that the security policy domain valorizes the universal push underlying the imperative to make models travel as a condition for the legitimation of their work in crafting solutions that fit to ‘similar problematically violent’ situations in Latin America. Roberto Vilchez Yamato offers an-other (re)reading of Onuf’s work. (Re)turning to Onuf’s World of Our Making, he (re)thinks the correlation(s) between metaphors, rules, and the conditions of rule, drawing attention to the crucial place of language within Onuf’s work. Supplementarily, Yamato engages with Onuf’s more recent The Mightie Frame, ‘the second half’ of his ‘decades-long project’, suggesting a certain rethinking of the ‘microphysics’ of language, the conditions of thought, and the conditions of rule, within which metaphors and metaphorical complexes are given center stage. (Re)reading (some of) Onuf’s work, he concludes his article wondering about how Onuf would respond to the question of provincializing metaphors.
Topic:: Violence, Language, Metaphors, Provincializing, and Colombianization
Political Geography:: Latin America

1950. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part III–Reconfiguration of Modernity and/as Metaphor(s)

Author:: Michael Marks and Nicholas Onuf
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: In this Dossier, four scholars reflect on Nicholas Onuf’s leading article, ‘Metaphoricizing modernity’, (re)engaging with – and celebrating – more broadly Onuf’s groundbreaking work from different places, perspectives, and angles. Part III (re)engages with (his) reconfigurations of Modernity and/as metaphor(s), including an extensive, and much careful response from Onuf to those four scholars and their (re)readings published in this Dossier: Celebrating Nicholas Onuf. Michael Marks is the fourth scholar to engage with and reflect on Onuf’s leading article, and his work more broadly. Marks reads Onuf’s essay on metaphoricising modernity as an invitation to see modernity in terms of its metaphorical qualities; that is, as an opportunity to reflect not only on modernity, but on the nature of metaphors and how they figure in scholarly inquiry. More specifically, for him, Onuf’s characterization of modernity as embodying notions of forward motion and territorial physicality is one of the main insights of his essay that could be further explored with additional theoretical analysis. Nicholas Onuf closes this Part and the Dossier more broadly, carefully engaging with and responding to the contributions of Victor Coutinho Lage (in Part I), Manuela Trindade Viana (in Part II), Roberto Vilchez Yamato (in Part II), and Michael Marks (in Part III). Rethinking reconfiguration as a general, constitutive process, Onuf (re)engages with modernization and modernity’s universal ethos, while responding to his postcolonial critics and their (re)readings of his highly generalized model of world-making. In so doing, Onuf also (re)engages with the concept and conceptualization of metaphors, repositioning his work and stance as a form of ‘embodied anti-realism’. For him, old ontologies never die; like metaphors, they just layer up.
Topic:: Modernity, Metaphors, Concepts, and Beginnings
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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