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3402. Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: With Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov
- Author:
- Oleksii Reznikov, Mariana Budjeryn, Carol Saivetz, and Elizabeth Wood
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: A conversation with Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov: Thursday, October 17th, 2024. Speaker: Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s former defense minister, led Ukraine’s defense establishment in the lead up to Russia’s full-scale invasion and during the first year and a half of the war. Mr. Reznikov will discuss the successes and challenges of Ukraine’s defense effort, the role of technology and uncrewed systems, and the evolution of the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Discussant: Mariana Budjeryn, PhD, is a senior research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She is the author of "Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine." Co-Chairs: Carol Saivetz is a senior advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is the Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of "Roots of Russia's War in Ukraine," as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and more.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
3403. Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching
- Author:
- Katrina Burgess, John Githongo, Prerna Singh, Daniel Ziblatt, and Evan Lieberman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching: Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024. Experts weigh-in on how citizens and leaders from other world regions are viewing the November 5th US election. What do they believe is at stake for their countries and regions? Is America still seen as a model for democracy? How do they view the candidates? SPEAKERS: Katrina Burgess on Latin America. Katrina Burgess is professor of political economy and director of the Henry J Leir Institute of Migration and Human Security at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Her research areas include Latin America, political economy of development, comparative politics, and migration and diasporas. She is the writer and producer of Waylaid in Tijuana, a documentary film that explores US immigration policies. "Courting Migrants: How States Make Diasporas and Diasporas Make State," is one of her award-winning books. John Githongo on Africa. John Githongo hails from Kenya, where he was a journalist and became a leading light in the international Transparency movement. He has held a variety of government, non-government and academic appointments, and was recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the world’s 100 top global thinkers. Among his many posts, he serves as a senior advisor to the Office of the President of South Sudan on governance. He currently resides at the MIT Center for International Studies as its prestigious Robert E Wilhelm fellow. Prerna Singh on Asia. Prerna Singh is the Mahatma Gandhi Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Brown University. Her research interests include the comparative political economy of development; identity politics; and the politics of South Asia and East Asia. Her book, "How Solidarity Works for Welfare: Subnationalism and Social Development in India," analyzes the causes of variations in social welfare institutions and development by focusing on the dramatic divergences in social policies and outcomes across Indian provinces. Daniel Ziblatt on Europe. Daniel Ziblatt is the director of Harvard University's Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies where he is also Eaton Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on Europe and the comparative study of democracy. His recent book, "Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point," co-authored with Steve Levitsky, provides an analysis of American democracy in comparative perspective. Moderator: Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He conducts research on the political-economy of development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. He studies the democratic politics of governing ethnically and racially diverse societies, including the challenges of public health, climate adaptation, and ensuring respect for human dignity. Lieberman is the author, most recently, of "Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid."
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, and Kamala Harris
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
3404. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future
- Author:
- Peter Krause
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The 2024 U.S. election and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: How the outcome here impacts the situation there
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Kamala Harris
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
3405. Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy
- Author:
- Dennis Ross and Melani Cammett
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy: Tuesday, September 24th, 2024. Introduction: Evan Lieberman, Director, Center for International Studies and Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa Moderator: Philip Khoury, MIT Vice Provost and Ford International Professor of History Closing remarks: Karl Reid, Vice President for Equity and Inclusion, Institute Community & Equity Office Speakers: Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He also teaches at Georgetown University’s Center for Jewish Civilization. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping US involvement in the Middle East peace process as the US point man on the peace process in both the George H W Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. He also served as special assistant to President Obama and as National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and as special advisor on Iran to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Melani Cammett is the Clarence Dillon Professor of International Affairs and director of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She also holds a secondary faculty appointment in the Harvard Chan School of Public Health. Cammett's award-winning books include "Compassionate Communalism: Welfare and Sectarianism in Lebanon" and "A Political Economy of the Middle East." Her current research projects explore "toleration" and reconciliation after ethnoreligious violence, development and identity politics. She has published numerous articles in academic and policy journals, consults for development policy organizations, and serves as a commissioner on the Lancet Commission on Syria.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and United States of America
3406. South African Elections 2024: The Results and Implications for the Region and Beyond
- Author:
- Pranish Desai, Daniel de Kadt, Rorisang Lekalake, Lwanda Maqwelane, and Evan Lieberman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- SPEAKERS Pranish Desai is a senior data analyst at Good Governance Africa, a research and advocacy organization headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. His work at GGA focuses on the issues of subnational governance in Southern Africa, political accountability, coalition politics in South Africa and encouraging data-driven policymaking within the region. Pranish is an incoming doctoral student at MIT. Daniel de Kadt works as an assistant professor at the London School of Economics, where he is an affiliate of the Data Science Institute and a senior visiting fellow in government. Prior to this he worked at the University of California, Merced, after completing his PhD at MIT. He has written extensively on the electoral politics of South Africa. Rorisang Lekalake is a senior analyst/methodologist for Afrobarometer, charged with contributing to the organization’s analytical outputs, strengthening existing methodologies, and contributing to building the capacity of network staff and partners in quantitative research methods and analysis. She is a 2023 PhD recipient from MIT. Lwanda Maqwelane, a PhD candidate at Rhodes University, is an early career research activist with a focus on policy development, just energy transitions and climate change education. She currently serves as a researcher at the Center for Researching Education and Labour at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. MODERATOR Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He also directs the Global Diversity Lab (GDL) and MIT’s global experiential learning program, MISTI. His most recent book is Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid (Princeton University Press, 2022).
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
3407. Strengthening Reintegration Support to Boys Formerly Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups Who Are Victims/Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence
- Author:
- Barbara Buckinx and Charu Lata Hogg
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- This policy report summarizes insights from a workshop held in Bogotá, Colombia, on December 4, 2023, titled, “Strengthening Reintegration Support to Boys Formerly Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups Who Are Victims/Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence.” The workshop was organized by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD), All Survivors Project (ASP), and the UN Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict (OSRSG CAAC).
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Children, Sexual Violence, Armed Conflict, and Reintegration
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and Global Focus
3408. Countering Authoritarian Propaganda: Perceived Expertise and Persuasiveness
- Author:
- Isabelle DeSisto, Laura Howells, Grigore Pop-Eleches, and Jacob Tucker
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- When do anti-regime messages persuade people living in authoritarian regimes to update their political attitudes? The literature on authoritarian politics has devoted considerable attention to understanding how pro-regime propaganda affects citizens’ attitudes, but far less to the converse: when and how anti-regime messaging is effective at bursting the regime’s information bubble. We argue that source credibility helps explain why some kinds of anti-regime messages influence opinions while others do not. To illustrate this argument, we draw on observational and experimental survey data collected in Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We pair time-series data with three survey experiments, which together indicate that messages criticizing the regime and its policies are more persuasive when they come from people with subject-matter expertise.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Propaganda, Russia-Ukraine War, and Persuasion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eurasia
3409. Prioritizing Palestinian Self-Determination is Long Overdue
- Author:
- Omar Auf
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The discussion about a one-state or two-state solution must be preceded by efforts to facilitate exercise of the right to self-determination by the Palestinian people. Only then can a realistic solution be genuinely pursued.
- Topic:
- International Law, Self-Determination, Palestinians, and Two-State Solution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
3410. Less Than a State
- Author:
- Sean Lee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Without a new framework that ensures true sovereignty and security for a future Palestinian state, the two-state solution will remain a farce
- Topic:
- Security, Sovereignty, State, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Two-State Solution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
3411. Politics of Apathy and All-Out War in the Post-Gaza New World
- Author:
- Abdalhadi Alijla
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The genocidal campaign against the Gaza Strip threatens widening of the conflict into a regional war, creating new realities that may endure for decades
- Topic:
- Genocide, Armed Conflict, International Order, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
3412. Why Hamas Cannot Be Destroyed
- Author:
- Grace Wermenbol
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Israel’s strategy to eradicate Hamas by killing off its leadership has proven ineffective for decades; the current war demonstrates the myopic nature of this approach
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Leadership, Assassination, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
3413. Iranians Don’t Want a War With Israel
- Author:
- Kourosh Ziabari
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Most believe that Tehran’s engagement in the battle for Palestinian emancipation is intrusive and uncalled for
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
3414. The Olympics: Arenas of Contention
- Author:
- Jung Woo Lee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Political tensions simmered under the facade of international communion at the Paris 2024 Games as countries competed both on and off the stage
- Topic:
- Politics, Sports, Olympics, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- France and Global Focus
3415. China Tests the Water in Palestinian Diplomacy
- Author:
- Ramzy Baroud
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- While the ramifications of the recent unity agreement signed in Beijing by multiple Palestinian factions remain to be seen, it is evident that China has stepped up as a leader in the region
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Asia, and Palestine
3416. Don’t Forget About the Red Sea
- Author:
- Burak Şakir Şeker
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- A widening of Israel’s War on Gaza could threaten the vital Red Sea waterway and lead to a global economic crisis
- Topic:
- Trade, Shipping, Economic Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, and Red Sea
3417. Looking Backward into The Future: Why the United Nations Has Failed to Prevent Genocide
- Author:
- Gregory H. Stanton
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- At its root, genocide is committed through a lack of empathy, and it has failed to be prevented by a lack of political will. It is time to reverse those failings by rethinking our systems and challenging our assumptions.
- Topic:
- Genocide, United Nations, Atrocity Prevention, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
3418. Is Israel’s Star Fading in Latin America?
- Author:
- Jodor Jalit
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The Latin American response to Israel’s war on Gaza could help strengthen the rich but neglected cultural ties with Arab states
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Latin America
3419. Hamas “From the Heart of Battle”: Analyzing Abu Obaida’s Discourse
- Author:
- Sophia Agathocleous and Erwin van Veen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The frames and focus of the speeches of Hamas spokesperson Abu Obaida reveal the group’s strategic goals and the psychological warfare used to achieve them.
- Topic:
- Ideology, Hamas, Psychological Warfare, 2023 Gaza War, and Abu Obaida
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
3420. A Reading on the Future of Hamas
- Author:
- Omar Shaban
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The aftermath of October 7, and assassination of senior commanders, has forced an existential rethink within Hamas
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza
3421. Income Innovation in the Not-for-Profit and For-Purpose Sectors in Australia
- Author:
- Gemma Hardie and Min Wah Voon
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- This report shares the findings of research by the International Women’s Development Agency (IWDA), conducted in 2019 and 2023, on income innovations in the not-for-profit and for-purpose sectors in Australia. A Rapid Scan of Income Innovations in the Not-For-Profit and For-Purpose Sectors in Australia draws from interviews with 26 individuals and organisations about diversifying funding beyond traditional grants, fundraising and philanthropy. The intended outcomes of the research were to: Identify income innovations in the not-for-profit and for-purpose (NFP+FP) sectors that currently generate untied income (excluding traditional funding) Help inform IWDA’s broader strategic planning and decision making.
- Topic:
- Development, Innovation, Philanthropy, and Non-profits
- Political Geography:
- Australia
3422. Feminist Technology Diplomacy: An FFP Approach to Artificial Intelligence
- Author:
- Elise Stephenson and Isobel Barry
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) has rapidly gained global momentum, with technological developments spurred on by generative AI and increased automation across military, medical, humanitarian, and educational domains, hastening the need to prioritise good international governance. To realise the gains whilst mitigating the risks of AI, robust governance frameworks are required to which feminist foreign policy (FFP) approaches are relevant. AI regulation that focuses on mitigating harms toward minoritised groups, particularly women, should be a critical priority for governments and international organisations. Failing to address these issues risks disenfranchising half the global population, ultimately leading to missed opportunities for gains in productivity and efficiency driven by AI advancements.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Women, Feminism, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3423. A Feminist Foreign Policy Approach to Counter-terrorism
- Author:
- Shannon Zimmerman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- This brief explores what a feminist foreign policy approach to counter-terrorism might look like. A key role of foreign policy is to ensure a state’s national security. However, the field of national security in most countries is deeply gendered. State approaches to addressing terrorism and violent extremism are no exception to this, despite clear evidence that gender-sensitive approaches to counter-terrorism and preventing/countering violence extremism are more effective. This brief highlights the value added by including feminist approaches to counter-terrorism and explores what such an approach might entail. Last, it describes how Australia might apply a feminist approach to its current counter-terrorism activities to ensure initiatives are more comprehensive, effective and sustainable.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Global Focus
3424. Palestine 2023: Palestinian Perception of Governance
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- On the eve of October the 7th, the Palestinian perception of PA governance was grim: trust in the PA leadership, PA public institutions, civil society organizations, and Hamas was low and declining; perception of corruption in PA institutions was overwhelming; and the public assessed the performance of the government in providing security, keeping the prices down, and narrowing the gap between rich and poor as bad or very bad; but satisfaction with service delivery was mixed These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. This report is restricted to findings related to Palestinian perception of governance. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Governance, Institutions, Survey, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
3425. Palestine 2023: Palestinian Perception of Migration
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- On the eve of October 7, about a third of Gazans and about a fifth of West Bankers said they were considering emigrating from Palestine. The main drivers seem economic, political, educational, security and concerns about corruption. The most preferred destination for immigration is Turkey, followed by Germany, Canada, the United States and Qatar. The vast majority of Palestinians reported receiving no remittances from relatives in the diaspora. The vast majority supports the right of foreign domestic workers in Palestine to always have their passports, to a day off a week, and to a bank account in which they receive their salaries. These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. This report is restricted to findings related to Palestinian perception of migration. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Education, Migration, Economy, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank
3426. Jordan: Public Opinion Report 2024
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Arab Barometer’s Wave VIII survey captures public opinion in Jordan at a critical time. As the COVID-era restrictions and changes receded, many of the challenges Jordan had been facing over the previous decade returned to the fore. From the early 2010s until Arab Barometer’s 2022 survey, there had been consistent declines in views of government and economic challenges continued to mount. However, in the weeks before the planned survey, the events of October 7, 2023 shook the region, but particularly Jordan as a country bordering Israel. Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza deeply affected Jordanian public opinion, particularly given the large number of Jordanians of Palestinian descent. Results from the survey strongly suggest that the impact from the war in Gaza not only shaped views of international actors, but also influenced perceptions of domestic issues in Jordan. In effect, it is difficult to overstate the importance of this issue for Jordanian public opinion or to accurately understand it separately from the situation in Gaza.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Survey, Freedom, Gender, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
3427. Gender Attitudes and Trends in MENA: The Effects of Working Women (2023-2024)
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Gender equality continues to be elusive in many parts of life in countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Although there is widespread support for women enjoying equal rights, there has been some retrenchment on these issues in recent years. Even greater declines are found when looking at support for women having equal roles in public and private life, which were already less favored than equal rights. A significant part of these views may be tied to women’s employment. Breaking with the previous trend of improving views on gender equality, we now find an increase in support for patriarchal norms in both the private and public spheres compared to Arab Barometer’s last survey in 2021-2022.
- Topic:
- Women, Employment, Survey, Gender Equality, and Gender Roles
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
3428. Migration in the Middle East and North Africa (2023-2024)
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Migration has been a major issue affected the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has for decades. Many citizens across the region have sought to leave their homelands in search of life in foreign countries. Arab Barometer has been monitoring attitudes toward migration in the region since 2006. The newest Wave VIII surveys between 2023 and 2024 reveal that sizable percentages of people across the region want to leave their countries in pursuit of better living conditions elsewhere. Levels of desire to emigrate, however, vary based on domestic conditions and whether it is actually possible to emigrate. For example, while nearly half of Tunisians want to leave their country, fewer than a fifth of Kuwaitis share this wish. These levels have remained largely stable in recent years for the countries surveyed. Potential migrants tend to be young and with a college education. Youth generally are more likely to express their desire to leave their countries and embark on a life elsewhere. The same is true for those with better education; in part, the college-educated may be more likely to expect to be able to find better jobs and opportunities than those with no more than a secondary education. At the same time, gender plays a lesser role in most countries surveyed.
- Topic:
- Education, Migration, Economy, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
3429. Lebanon: Public Opinion Report 2024
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Lebanon continues to struggle with the long shadow of the 2019 financial collapse, made even worse by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the August 2020 Beirut port explosion. In 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with Lebanese authorities which would provide the equivalent of three billion USD in aid conditional on significant political reforms (source). Two years later political maneuvering and infighting has successfully prevented the implementation of any of the required political reforms and none of the multi-billion-dollar aid has been released. The citizens of Lebanon are suffering. Most citizens say they struggle to cover their monthly expenses, there has been a sharp increase in food insecurity, and all citizens, regardless of income, suffer near daily electricity outages. Lebanese citizens lay the blame for the pervasive socio-economic ills at the feet of their government. No one has confidence in the government’s ability to solve the country’s problems. The long-term crisis has resulted in increasing apathy towards the political system, especially among the less economically stable. Citizens are increasingly likely to say the type of government the country has does not matter for people like them.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, Survey, and Political System
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
3430. Iraq Public Opinion Report 2024
- Author:
- Arab Barometer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- If uncertainty was the key theme reverberating through Arab Barometer’s 2022 seventh wave findings in Iraq, emergent stability—however slight—is the main one echoing its eighth wave, at least with respect to domestic politics. To be sure, the country still faces many challenges, and protests over corruption, elections, women’s rights, climate change-induced power outages, among other issues have continued to episodically arise. But public sentiment appears to be responding to the efforts of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s government, which has begun to tackle some of the country’s most pressing issues. For Iraqi citizens, corruption remains the biggest challenge facing the country, though there is a considerable increase in the share of citizens who suggest that the government is tackling the issue. Economic grievances, chief among which are a lack of jobs, also continue to preoccupy citizens. More than half of all Iraqis are confronting food insecurity, and sizable numbers are adapting negative coping strategies to access food. Even more pressing than the affordability of food is the affordability and availability of housing. Still, a small but rising share of citizens positively assess the government’s efforts to create jobs and curb inflation. So, despite ongoing challenges, optimism about the future of the economy is on the rise, signifying the reversal of an otherwise downward trend that had been effect since 2013.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
3431. Assessing the Efficacy of the India-Pakistan Agreement on Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations/Facilities
- Author:
- Nasir Mehmood
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the 1988 India-Pakistan Non-Attack Agreement prohibiting attacks on nuclear installations and facilities, examining its origins, implementation, and implications through declassified documents, primary sources, news reports, and interviews. While some view this agreement as a model for protecting nuclear facilities during conflicts and others question its effectiveness, this research reveals that the agreement successfully maintains a crucial balance between reassurance and deterrence. The study demonstrates that both nations have consistently complied with the agreement during peace and conflict, as it aligns with their strategic interests without compromising deterrence stability. The agreement has yielded significant benefits, including reduced fears of nuclear attacks, improved bilateral relations, international diplomatic gains, and cost-effective security measures for nuclear installations. The paper proposes two supplementary measures to enhance the agreement's effectiveness: establishing a Bilateral Consultative Commission for addressing implementation issues and creating a bilateral instrument specifically prohibiting cyber-attacks on nuclear facilities. This analysis contributes to the broader understanding of arms control theory by validating the complementary yet opposing relationship between arms control arrangements and nuclear deterrence operations, while offering valuable lessons for securing nuclear sites globally.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Deterrence, and Nuclear Safety
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India
3432. Proposals for Reducing the Size and Cost of Running Government
- Author:
- Kojo P. Asante and David Asante Darko
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Ghana Center for Democratic Development
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the prospect of saving the country much-needed revenue by reducing the number of ministries and ministers in government and exactly how this may be achieved. It is an uncomfortable fact that the current sovereign debt crisis in Ghana, the worst in the country since the year 2000, has visited severe economic hardship on the cizens. For 18 months beginning June, 2021, year-on-year rates of inflaon in the country have risen consistently, going from 40.4% in October, 2022, to 50.3% in November, 2022, and finally to 54.1% for December, 2022, according to the Ghana Stascal Service. This has highlighted the urgency of prudent management and fiscal discipline by the country's economic managers. In a situaon where the country's access to capital markets are closed, expenditure cuts are inevitable and the government must lead by example.
- Topic:
- Government, Reform, Public Spending, and Debt Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
3433. Burkina Faso’s Prolonged Transition: Failed Promises and Governance Shortcomings
- Author:
- Emmanuel Yeboah
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Ghana Center for Democratic Development
- Abstract:
- July 2024 was expected to mark the end of Burkina Faso's transion back to civilian rule, with a presidenal elecon intended to restore constuonal order aer two years of polical uncertainty. However, as many had ancipated, worsening security situaon, coupled with other challenges would become a pretext for the junta to consolidate its hold on power. On September 29, 2023, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the junta leader, declared that the scheduled elecons in July 2024 were “not a priority,” and that the constuon would be modified, casng doubt on the prospects for a mely democrac transion. On May 25, 2024, the military government stunned many democracy watchers by announcing an extension of their rule unl 2029, following what they termed a "naonal conference." This decision, however, was met with widespread skepcism, as the dialogue was largely boycoed by civil society, polical pares, and other key stakeholders. The announcement dealt a severe blow to hopes for a democrac transion, reinforcing fears that the junta intended to hold onto power indefinitely. Adding to the sense of stagnaon, the junta celebrates its two-year anniversary on September 29, 2024. This study builds upon a previous report to provide a comprehensive update and evaluaon of Burkina Faso's ongoing transion process. It offers a detailed analysis of the challenges faced by the transion, providing crical insights into the effecveness of military governments in addressing governance issues and their impact on the country's stability and development. The study further contributes to the broader discourse on the path to restoring democrac order in Burkina Faso.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Geopolitics, Democratic Transitions, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burkina Faso
3434. Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change
- Author:
- Edoardo Campanella and Robert Z. Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Driven by the push to decarbonize the world and achieve net zero emissions by 2050, a new anti-elite revolt is in the making in developed economies: If mainstream parties ignore the losers of the green transition as they did with globalization, climate populism not only will slow the adoption of climate policies but could also shake Western democracies. Climate policies are a perfect target for populist rhetoric: They rely on expert knowledge, entail globalist thinking and action, and the counterfactual nature of their benefits—avoiding disasters that would otherwise happen—gives ample fodder for conspiracy theories. And their costs are unevenly shared, hitting those at the bottom of the income distribution significantly harder than those at the top. Climate populism is particularly a problem on the far right, where doubts about science and opposition to international cooperation are strongest. Policies need to deal with this rising political opposition. Given the depth of their grievances, and as it is often the case with populism, it is unlikely that voters antagonistic to climate policies will be persuaded by rational arguments. What will change their behavior are economic incentives. If green technologies are cheaper than fossil fuel ones, they will be adopted to save money rather than the planet. Thus the costs of the green transition need to be reduced through more open trade in the short run and more innovation in the long run. In addition, those who support climate policies need to be mobilized through more engaging political strategies, more emotional narratives, and more bottom-up policy approaches.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Populism, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3435. Migration or stagnation: Aging and economic growth in Korea today, the world tomorrow
- Author:
- Michael A. Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- South Korea faces an unprecedented economic crisis driven by rapid population aging, as it approaches a future of negative economic growth. This paper examines the full range of possible policy responses with the potential to restore dynamism to the Korean economy. Contrary to many prior analyses, I find that enhanced labor migration to Korea is necessary, sufficient, and feasible. Migration is necessary because in the best forecasts we have, no other class of policy has the quantitative potential to meaningfully offset aging. Migration is sufficient because enhanced temporary labor migration by itself would offset most of Korea’s demographic drag on growth over the next 50 years. And migration is feasible because the levels of migration and timescale of the transition would resemble that already carried out by Malaysia and Australia. Many advanced economies will follow in Korea’s demographic footsteps in decades to come, and have much to learn from the decisions that the Korean government makes now.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, and Aging
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
3436. Korea’s Trade Policy Agenda in an Uncertain US Trade Environment
- Author:
- Alan Wm. Wolff and Han-Koo Yeo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses how South Korea, a mid-sized ally of the United States, can best navigate clearly identifiable risks, crafting a positive and pragmatic international trade policy. Korea is heavily dependent on the United States for its defense. It is clear that US trade policy has recently shifted toward being more self-centered, a policy unlikely to be reversed any time soon. The United States is on the threshold of a presidential election that makes it unpredictable in its trade policy, which may become directly harmful to Korean economic prospects if there is a change in leadership. US trade policies under President Joseph Biden have been primarily aimed at onshoring rather than friendshoring, but they have not been actively hostile or threatening. If there is a second Donald Trump term, Korea might not be excluded from substantially increased tariffs—whether for protection, revenue, or leverage—despite the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). At the same time that Korea is watchful of developments in the United States, it needs to pay attention to its neighbor, China, the world’s largest trading economy, a country that has practiced trade coercion against it. South Korea is the world’s 13th-largest economy. It is a strong proponent and practitioner of free trade. It is one of a group of midsize free market democracies aligned with the United States that, ranked by GDP, includes Japan, Germany, and France (and therefore with others, the European Union), the United Kingdom, Canada, Italy, and Australia. The future of the global trading system that the market-oriented countries wish to enjoy is increasingly dependent on this group of midsize economies and the European Union. Korea has thrived in large part through its open trade policy that has made it the country with the world’s greatest number of free trade agreements (including with both the United States and China, as well as with the European Union). It shares strong economic security interests with the United States: It has its own K-CHIPS Act, which provides substantial subsidies to its semiconductor industry. It invests very substantially in critical minerals and batteries, as does the United States. Korea also collaborates with the United States in the production of vaccines to meet future pandemics.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Investment, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Steel, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
3437. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The paper explores policies promoted by former president and now candidate Donald Trump that would potentially affect the global economy. We focus on immigration policy, trade, and erosion of the Federal Reserve Board’s political independence. Each policy has differing macroeconomic and sectoral impacts on the United States and other countries. We find, however, that all the policies examined cause a decline in US production and employment, especially in trade-exposed sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture, as well as higher US inflation. The trade policies do little to improve the US trade balance; however, the erosion of Fed independence does so by causing capital outflows, a significant depreciation of the dollar, and higher unemployment toward the end of 2028, which worsen American living standards. Scenarios combining individual policies show that the changes cause a large inflationary impulse and a significant loss of employment (particularly in manufacturing and agriculture) in the US economy. The negative impact of a contraction in global trade is significant for countries that trade with the United States the most. The adverse effect is offset for some economies by the positive effects of an inflow of foreign capital that would otherwise have gone into the US economy. An online dashboard contains a full set of macroeconomic and sectoral results for all countries.
- Topic:
- Migration, Central Bank, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Deportation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3438. The Trinity of COVID Era Inflation in G7 Economies
- Author:
- Joseph E. Gagnon and Asher Rose
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- COVID era inflation was driven by a unique combination of three shocks: First, a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and disruptions to supply caused prices of consumer durable goods to skyrocket. Second, the Ukraine war caused the largest global commodity price surge in 40 years, which mainly affected prices of nondurable goods such as food and gasoline. Third, strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic recession caused labor markets to tighten, pushing up prices of services. This paper estimates models of the components of consumer prices in each G7 economy in order to document the transmission of these shocks. The first two shocks had run their course by 2023, enabling overall inflation to decline sharply from its 2022 peak. But labor markets remained at least moderately tight in most G7 economies in 2024, and services inflation remained noticeably higher than its pre-pandemic level.
- Topic:
- Economy, Inflation, G7, COVID-19, and Goods and Services
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3439. East Africa’s Potential Role in US Graphite Supply Chains
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The impact of the green tech trade war between the United States and China, which began with US semiconductor export controls, is now being felt in other areas. In December 2023, China introduced export controls on graphite, a key element used in the production of noncarbon technologies like batteries and solar panels. The effects were immediate: Chinese graphite exports to the rest of the world declined by 93 percent (by volume) in a single month. Exports to the United States and Japan—which is collaborating with the United States on semiconductor controls—dropped to zero.1 But although China is the largest player, it is not the only graphite producer in town. This Policy Brief assesses the prospects for three Sub-Saharan African countries—Madagascar, Mozambique, and Tanzania—for providing stable supplies of natural graphite to the US market, considering both domestic factors in the three countries and US policies established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These countries have adequate graphite resources and operators headquartered in Western allies. The problem is that there are significant governance-related challenges in Madagascar and Mozambique and some domestic challenges to incorporating East African graphite into US electric vehicle (EV) supply chains. US critical mineral sourcing policies will need to be modified to facilitate greater involvement of African producers in US graphite supply chains.
- Topic:
- Supply Chains, Electric Vehicles, Critical Minerals, and Graphite
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, East Africa, and United States of America
3440. Egypt’s 2023–24 Economic Crisis: Will This Time Be Different?
- Author:
- Ruchir Agarwal and Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Egypt narrowly averted a full-blown economic crisis in early 2024 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others gave Egypt a financial lifeline to curb its losses of foreign exchange reserves. This Policy Brief traces the origins and developments of the current crisis, and the country's history of repeated balance of payments crises. The 2023-24 crisis is one of eight such events in Egypt since 1952, driven by governance and policy deficiencies. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated Egypt's problems. Egypt's strategic importance in the Middle East, underscored by the Gaza conflict, has ensured continued international financial support, allowing Egypt to bet on its "too strategic to fail" position and avoid reforms. Entrenched military dominance and cronyism have obstructed necessary economic reforms. The authors conclude that Egypt needs to address these challenges and undertake major reforms to break free from its recurring cycle of crises and stop relying on international bailouts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Exchange, Currency, COVID-19, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Egypt
3441. Misconceptions about US Trade Deficits Muddy the Economic Policy Debate
- Author:
- Maurice Obstfeld
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The distrust of openness to the global economy shared by Republican and Democratic leadership derives in part from a faulty premise that persistent US trade deficits have been imposed on the United States by foreign countries and have contributed significantly to US deindustrialization. In fact, the deficits have important domestic sources, and the main drivers of US manufacturing employment decline lie elsewhere. Two theories that blame foreign countries for deficits hold that deficits arose from unfair competition by trade partners or from a “global savings glut.” The author says the first theory is wrong, the second is incomplete, and economic isolationism is not a solution. Trade and current account deficits result generally from an economy’s collective decisions to save and invest. Freer trade does not necessarily raise investment more than saving, and an investment-driven deficit is likely positive for the economy. The years 1998–2001 during and after the Asian financial crisis led to the dollar appreciating and a rise in the US deficit, consistent with the global saving glut theory. But subsequently in the 2000s, foreign capital was not pushed into the United States from abroad; rather it was pulled and the dollar depreciated. The causes were easy financial conditions, a housing bubble, and strong US consumption—trends that ended in a financial crisis. Understanding this history is essential if the United States is to avoid destructive protectionism and other harmful economic policies.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Trade Deficit, and Deindustrialization
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3442. Economic implications of revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status
- Author:
- Megan Hogan, Warwick McKibben, and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The United States’ granting of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, formerly known as most favored nation status, to China in 2000 resulted in a large expansion of bilateral trade. Concerns over Chinese trade practices and the impact of Chinese exports on US import-competing sectors have contributed to US political discontent and calls for the revocation of PNTR, including by former president Donald Trump in his reelection campaign and in the 2024 Republican Party Platform. The authors find that revoking China’s PNTR status would cause higher inflation and a short-term decline in US gross domestic product relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers. The loss of output and employment would be felt unevenly across the economy, with agriculture, durable manufacturing, and mining taking the biggest hits. Stock market prices would fall, with agricultural, durable manufacturing, and mining firms absorbing the biggest declines. All of these impacts would be magnified if China retaliates. Ironically, the revocation would damage the US industrial sector and contribute to a wider US trade deficit.
- Topic:
- Economics, Bilateral Relations, Manufacturing, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3443. Did Supply Chains Deliver Pandemic-Era Inflation?
- Author:
- Phil Levy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief argues that supply chain breakdowns were not a principal cause of pandemic-era inflation. Levy focuses on US trade in containerized goods and shows that, within months of the pandemic’s onset, the quantities of goods delivered in fact increased significantly. The sharp increases in inflation and shipping prices and the accompanying delays and empty shelves in the presence of significantly increased quantities suggest, instead, a large positive demand shock. Goods consumption levels rose sharply and remained elevated into 2023 and beyond, even as shipping delays and price hikes dissipated. The author concludes that, while it may be worthwhile to make supply chains more efficient and aim for increased elasticity of supply, the goal of avoiding inflation and shortages is likely better met through improved demand management.
- Topic:
- Inflation, Trade, COVID-19, Shipping, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3444. Was Something Structurally Wrong at the FOMC?
- Author:
- Alan S. Blinder
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve was late to start raising interest rates as inflation rose in 2021–22. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made a substantial, though perhaps understandable, error in failing to raise interest rates until March 2022. Much of that policy error can be attributed to faulty forecasts of inflation, which the Federal Reserve shared with many other forecasters. It was not an outlier. But the error was not quite as consequential as the Fed’s sharpest critics allege. Even if the FOMC had started to hike rates earlier, the econometric evidence suggests that the effects on peak inflation would likely have been small. Supply constraints, not excess demand, ruled the roost. They came, driving inflation higher; and then they went, pulling inflation down. Blinder says that the FOMC’s August 2020 framework shoulders more of the blame for the inflationary surge than it should—probably because the new wording revised both of the Fed’s goals, low inflation and high employment, in dovish directions. For that reason alone, the framework will almost certainly be changed in 2025, given the high inflation since. But how? Blinder suggests that the August 2020 change in the employment goal, from symmetry to “shortfalls,” is sensible and probably not too important anyway. But the change in the inflation goal, from a 2 percent point target to flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT), was probably consequential. It may have made the FOMC slow on the draw as inflation gathered steam, and it may have kept monetary policy too tight for too long in 2024. In both directions, Blinder argues, a 1.5 to 2.5 percent target range would be a better choice. To answer the question in the title of this Policy Brief, that may be the structural flaw the Fed should fix.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, and Supply
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3445. Is the United States undergoing a manufacturing renaissance that will boost the middle class?
- Author:
- Robert Z. Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- President Joseph R. Biden Jr. made the goal of his economic policies to “build back better.” He emphasized helping workers without college degrees in order “to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out.” The emphasis on a manufacturing renaissance is reflected in the special incentives for US manufacturing in President Biden’s programs: the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Lawrence finds little evidence of a renaissance in US manufacturing as of July 2024: US manufacturing employment was barely above its pre-COVID levels. Manufacturing output has grown more slowly than GDP since the pandemic, and productivity in manufacturing has not increased since 2017. Moreover, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that over the next decade, manufacturing employment will decline and manufacturing output will grow more slowly than GDP. However, Lawrence says, additional manufacturing employment growth could be in the pipeline because of investment projects that have been announced but not yet completed. Lawrence estimates the additional manufacturing employment potential of announcements compiled by the White House as of mid-2024, finding that these projects could boost demand for 1.7 million manufacturing workers—a growth of 13.3 percent above 2022 manufacturing employment levels. It should be noted, however, that these are not estimates of net overall manufacturing employment growth. Some of the increased demand will be offset by losses of fossil fuel–related jobs displaced by the investments as well as declines in manufacturing employment for other reasons. Moreover, the impact of all the projects is just over 1 percent of overall US employment and in most states far too small to significantly change the opportunities for most non-college-educated workers and disadvantaged communities.
- Topic:
- Economic Policy, Inflation, Manufacturing, and Middle Class
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3446. Mistaken Identities Make for Bad Trade Policy
- Author:
- Maurice Obstfeld
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Election season debates over trade policy have brought renewed attention to the United States' longstanding deficit in foreign trade. Critics from both the right and left sides of the political spectrum, including Donald Trump and his allies, hold the trade deficit responsible for a range of alleged ills, among them, slower US economic growth, fewer jobs, the decline in manufacturing, and a transfer of American wealth to foreign owners. Trump supporters' ideas to reduce US trade deficits, such as far-reaching taxes on international transactions or forced dollar devaluation, rest on particular theories of why the deficits have arisen and persisted. These theories often have little basis other than macroeconomic accounting identities—relationships that are always true, by definition, and that therefore are consistent with a range of economic outcomes. Two key macroeconomic identities, the national income and product identity and the balance-of-payments identity, have been widely abused as justifications for radical policies to balance US trade. The identities describe relationships that necessarily hold among macro variables, but without the further input of behavioral reasoning, they cannot yield valid predictions or constructive policy conclusions. Identity-based reasoning is especially dangerous because it disguises the collateral damage that superficial fixes may inflict. It is much better to identify and directly correct the distortions that cause excessive trade deficits to emerge and persist.
- Topic:
- Elections, Macroeconomics, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and Trade Deficit
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3447. The Rise of US Economic Sanctions on China: Analysis of a New PIIE Dataset
- Author:
- Martin Chorzempa, Mary Lovely, and Christine Wan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Concerns over China’s national security and human rights activities have led the United States to rely increasingly on financial sanctions and export controls to curb Beijing’s behavior. But the tools are so complex it is difficult to assess their effectiveness. A new PIIE dataset sheds light on this economic statecraft. The first Trump administration added three times as many Chinese entities to export control and other sanctions lists than the previous four administrations; the Biden administration added even more to these lists. Most sanctions and controls target high-tech sectors, especially electronics, military and defense entities, aviation, space, and aerospace; targets are chosen under a veil of secrecy, raising questions over accountability and transparency. The benefits of isolating Chinese firms come with potential costs, hobbling innovation for US and allied business, encouraging circumvention of sanctions, and accelerating Chinese innovation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, National Security, Sanctions, and Exports
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3448. Is the World Trade Organization Still Relevant?
- Author:
- Alan Wm. Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- There has been a profound shift in American foreign economic policy. The United States has abandoned promotion of a rules-based open international trading system and no longer supports the World Trade Organization (WTO). The United States and its allies created the current world trading system as an essential part of the liberal world order, a series of rules-based international organizations and agreements to help rebuild the global economy and foster peaceful cooperation after World War II. Today, rising populism, heightened geopolitical tensions, and persistent inequality are threatening this order. Wolff emphasizes that the WTO is still relevant to the liberal international order, and it is in the core interest of the United States and other countries to continue to support that order. But he cautions that the WTO needs major reforms if it is to survive as an effective force governing world trade. WTO members must engage in serious negotiations to find acceptable solutions to shared problems. The resulting agreements can be political commitments or adoption of binding rules. Regressing to a lack of accountability for one’s trade policy measures, however, would be unacceptably damaging.
- Topic:
- Economic Policy, Trade, WTO, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3449. Inclusion of Loss and Damage as a Subgoal in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)
- Author:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Abstract:
- The policy brief demonstrates how incorporating Loss and Damage (L&D) into the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) being discussed currently at COP 29 will address not only the equity gap for developing countries, but also provide a well-rounded and well-defined climate finance landscape. By anchoring L&D as a distinct component within the NCQG, developing countries can secure finances to respond to unavoidable climate impacts and non-economic loss and damage, ensuring a more comprehensive and just response to the climate crisis.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, Equity, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Conference of the Parties (COP)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3450. Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: What Climate Change Means for a Country and its People
- Author:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Abstract:
- This report is a scientific synthesis by the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) in collaboration with Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET). It is intended to inform policymakers, media, the private sector, civil society, academics and anyone looking for country-level information on the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh. It has been reviewed internally before publication.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Natural Disasters, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
3451. The Future of Elections in Ukraine
- Author:
- Razumkov Centre
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The project «The Future of Elections in Ukraine: The Factor of War» was carried out by the Razumkov Centre with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ukraine in May- September 2024, during the third year of Ukraine’s full-scale war against the russian aggressor. The project included an analytical report, a nationwide sociological and expert survey, an offline roundtable involving experts in the fields of law and political science, and original articles by renowned experts in electoral law. This publication contains an abridged version of the analytical report and the main findings of the expert and sociological surveys in descriptive form. All project materials (in Ukrainian) are available in a special issue of the National Security and Defence journal (№1-2, 2024). '
- Topic:
- National Security, Law, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Science, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
3452. The Impact of Clubfoot Intervention on Dimensions of Human Flourishing: Evidence from the Organization Hope Walks in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Bruce Wydick, Gianna Camacho, and Patrizio Piraino
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- We study the impact of clubfoot disability and its treatment on multiple dimensions of human flourishing among children. Working with Hope Walks, a faith-based development organization that funds clubfoot interventions in numerous countries, we use a quasi difference-indifferences approach on data collected from 564 children in Ethiopia. To generate counterfactuals to clubfoot status and treatment, we use outcomes from nearest-age siblings of children born with clubfoot nested within a family-level fixed effect. We find that clubfoot status (early treatment) results in a disability (restoration) of -1.44σ (0.91σ) in physical mobility, -1.17σ (0.79σ) in mental health, -1.07σ (0.64σ) in social inclusion, -0.48σ (0.98σ) in an education index, -0.76σ (0.42σ) in religious faith, and -1.19σ (0.79σ) in an aggregate index of human flourishing (all p < 0.05). We attribute the large, broad, and significant impacts from clubfoot treatment to (i) a highly effective medical intervention that is (ii) carried out in an impoverished setting with scarce existing support for children born with disabilities, which (3) generates spillover effects into multiple facets of human flourishing.
- Topic:
- Health, Disability, Human Development, and Dignity
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
3453. An Integrative Framework to Assess Trade-Offs and Implications of Choosing Measurements
- Author:
- Laura García Montoya
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Deciding how to measure critical social science concepts like inequality and democracy is one of the most consequential decisions researchers and policymakers make. Yet we lack concrete guidelines to recognize and weigh the tradeoffs that make going from concept to measurement such a challenging task. This paper builds on existing work on measurement validity and develops a framework that allows scholars to identify the trade-offs between three desirable properties of measurement: completeness, interpretability, and normative alignment. The first challenge results from the inherent trade-off between completeness and interpretability. The second challenge results from the lack of empirical tools to assess the normative implications of choosing one indicator over another one. To exemplify how to navigate these challenges, the paper engages with debates on how to measure democracy and inequality. The paper aims to guide scholars in the consequential task of choosing one indicator that matches their research goals as well as their normative orientations.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3454. Positioned for Peacebuilding? The Complex Role of the Catholic Church in the Venezuelan Conflict
- Author:
- David Smilde and Hugo Pérez Hernáiz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Catholic Church would seem to be perfectly positioned to facilitate peace in the Venezuelan conflict. It is the country’s most respected institution, and Pope Francis has been personally interested in peacemaking in the region. Furthermore, there is precedent in the region. In Colombia, since the 1980s, the Catholic Church has played a key role in mobilizing the population for peace, supporting the peace process directly, and through involvement in issues of transitional justice. In this article, we briefly describe the peacebuilding activities of the Colombian Catholic Church, more extensively describe the activities of the Venezuelan Catholic Church, and then compare the two to understand the particular challenges the Venezuelan Church faces. We suggest that while the Venezuelan Church faces a similar political opportunity structure as the Colombian Church, it does so with less mobilizing strength and with a lesser ability to provide a clear ideological alternative to the conflict.
- Topic:
- Religion, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Catholic Church, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
3455. The Simple Job of Giving Torment,The Grupo Élite: A Death Squad of the Guatemalan Army
- Author:
- Manolo E. Vela Castañeda
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes the Grupo Élite, a death squad within the Guatemalan Presidential General Staff, whose members received orders from the intelligence sector, particularly the Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of Guatemala’s Defense Ministry. This was a specialized unit charged with special intelligence operations against dissidents. Such operations included surveillance, infiltration into opposition groups, arrests, interrogations by means of torture, sexual violence, extrajudicial executions, and forced disappearances. This article examines seven patterns that serve to characterize this particular unit and its members, including: 1) the command structure of the squad; 2) sociodemographic profiles of its members; 3) methods of recruitment; 4) the job description of members as part of an internal secret code; 5) the use of nicknames as pseudonyms; (6) careers and medals; and 7) careers after leaving the squad. Within the theater of war operations in Guatemala’s civil war, few actors rival the cruelty, perversity and sadism that characterized the actions of the country’s death squads.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Conflict, Violence, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Guatemala
3456. Enhancing Trilateral Security Cooperation: Korea, the United States, and Indonesia
- Author:
- Sook-yeon Lee
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Sook-yeon Lee argues that Indonesia serves as an ideal partner for the United States and South Korea to advance their objectives in the Indo-Pacific region and that the three countries should expand areas for trilateral cooperation. While the bilateral South Korea-Indonesia and US-Indonesia partnerships have deepened over the past several decades, trilateral security cooperation remains unexplored due to the differing scopes of cooperation between the two bilateral relationships. Lee outlines several areas in which the three countries should expand trilateral cooperation and contribute to strengthening regional security. Due to Indonesia’s desire for neutrality and South Korea’s concerns regarding its ties with China, Lee recommends a cautious approach to initiating trilateral cooperation in maritime security and counterterrorism before gradually expanding to additional areas. Such an approach both addresses Indonesia’s immediate cooperative needs and aligns with areas that South Korea and the United States have already identified within their respective partnerships with Indonesia. However, the primary challenge facing trilateral security cooperation is maintaining mutual trust and ensuring the leaders of all three countries are committed to upholding trust as the foundation of trilateralism. Domestic politics and foreign policy considerations of the three countries further complicate efforts to enhance trilateral security cooperation. Thus, Lee recommends that the three countries strengthen strategic dialogues to understand and respect the differences in each country’s respective core interests to ensure the establishment of a durable trilateral partnership between South Korea, Indonesia, and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea, Southeast Asia, and United States of America
3457. Camp David and US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Security and Defense Cooperation: Consolidating the Northeast Asia Anchor in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Yasuyo Sakata
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Yasuyo Sakata provides a historical overview of US-Japan-ROK defense cooperation in Northeast Asia, from the Korean War to the Camp David Summit, explaining how the trilateral partnership was redefined as an Indo-Pacific partnership and incorporated the “Northeast Asia Anchor.” Sakata argues that Japan and the United States have taken the lead in reconstructing the Indo-Pacific security architecture through their Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategies, and that the US-Japan-ROK trilateral relationship has been incorporated into this framework alongside other alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS. Sakata explores how Korea’s shift back towards the Indo-Pacific under President Yoon’s leadership has allowed for expansion of the scope of US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation, as affirmed during the Camp David Summit. However, Sakata contends that a comprehensive defense approach is needed in the Indo-Pacific involving allies and partners to build upon this foundation and strengthen defense and security cooperation amidst the challenges posed by North Korea, the Taiwan Strait, maritime security, cybersecurity, and space. Action is essential, as time is running out to solidify gains from the Camp David Summit and build a stable relationship. Therefore, Sakata argues that Japan and South Korea should strengthen relations deliberately yet cautiously before domestic politics potentially spoil recent progress.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
3458. Trilateralism in the Wake of the 2022 Jolt Toward Bipolarity in the Indo-Pacific and World
- Author:
- Gilbert Rozman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- Gil Rozman argues that trilateralism reached unprecedented levels in the first two decades of the 21st century. Russia, Japan, and South Korea each sought different triangular frameworks to position themselves at the pivot of great power relations in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. However, Rozman contends that by 2024 trilateralism had shifted to reinforce bipolarity amidst great power competition. After describing three types of triangular frameworks, Rozman examines the transformation of trilateralism in the Indo-Pacific region from 2022 to 2024 (particularly in Northeast Asia), analyzes the challenges military security, economic security, and national identity gaps pose to trilateralism, and evaluates the potential impact of leadership on triangular relationships. The shift from what Rozman calls triangular pivots to alliance triangles in international relations is primarily driven by security concerns yet also by economic vulnerability and national identity gaps. For Korea, the US-Japan-ROK alliance triangle, which was solidified at the Camp David Summit, is at the center of triangular solidarity. Given the polarized international and regional environment, Rozman argues it is unlikely that leadership could reverse the current trend of alliance triangle consolidation in the near future.
- Topic:
- Security, Alliance, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Trilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific
3459. US-South Korea Cyber Cooperation: Towards the Higher-Hanging Fruits
- Author:
- Jenny Jun and So Jeong Kim
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- In the past decade, the US and South Korea faced a relatively narrow set of challenges in cyberspace, notably North Korea’s cyber crime facilitating sanctions evasion. In the next decade, however, the two countries will face a more diversified set of challenges with growing North Korean ties with Russia, its involvement in the war in Ukraine, and intensifying US-China competition. The US and South Korea must develop a joint playbook for responding to scenarios of disruptive cyber operations targeting South Korean public and private sectors and prepare for an even more difficult environment for curbing North Korea’s cyber crime as Russia provides a way out. Over the past two years, the US and South Korea have significantly deepened and broadened cooperation on cyber issues and have expanded cooperation further to trilateral and multilateral settings. The two countries established several regular high-level and working-level dialogues, have issued joint sanctions and threat advisories, and deepened mil-to-mil cooperation. However, 2024 has been a watershed in terms of shifting geopolitical dynamics on and around the Korean peninsula. Cyber threats will become more diversified, and the bilateral relationship will be tested at the seams without a clear joint strategic concept and operational plan.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
3460. Clean Energy Pragmatism as a Spark for US-South Korea Relations
- Author:
- Elan Sykes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The United States and South Korea are close allies, committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and home to advanced industrial economies. Pragmatic cooperation on clean energy technologies would aid their shared goals in climate mitigation, energy security, and supply chain resilience. US-South Korea cooperation should include pooling shared technological expertise, aligning market and carbon accounting rules, investing in constrained supply chains, and adopting well-targeted policies to encourage research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects for early-stage technologies like clean hydrogen and advanced nuclear power plants. Clean energy pragmatism requires acknowledgment of the constraints facing each country to ensure policies are properly scoped, politically durable, and revised iteratively in light of observed outcomes. Neither country can succeed in this multidecadal transition alone. With their shared industrial capacity, world-class innovators engaged in joint research and development, and properly aligned market standards, however, both countries can solidify their position to achieve 21st-century energy security and economic growth. Yet, policy design and implementation are never complete unless a problem is entirely solved, and climate change is not a problem that can be solved over a single presidential term. Political shifts hold the potential to either undo progress or help spur new action.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Science and Technology, Renewable Energy, Supply Chains, and Research and Development
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
3461. Canvasing Variations in US-South Korea Cooperation on AI and Quantum Technology
- Author:
- Sanghyun Han
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- This paper elucidates how Washington and Seoul cooperate on AI and quantum technologies, both recognized as critical emerging technologies essential to their national interests. Technology cooperation is denoted as government-to-government efforts aimed at cultivating and developing technology, focusing on national strategies and interests. In AI, the United States holds a dominant leadership position, while South Korea demonstrates strengths in certain areas, though not across the board. Cooperation in AI primarily focuses on standardization efforts, with significant involvement of the South Korean government in partnerships with the US private sector, as well as private-sector-led bilateral research initiatives. In contrast, South Korea’s capabilities in quantum technologies are far more limited. Nevertheless, cooperation in this domain is largely centered on research collaboration, with both governments actively participating alongside international research consortia led by the United States. The differing focuses—standardization in AI and research collaboration in quantum technologies—reflect the respective strengths and needs of the two countries in these critical fields. The progression of the US-ROK alliance in this direction is both natural and beneficial, as the development of advanced and sophisticated technology is incrsaneasingly beyond the capacity of any single state alone.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Artificial Intelligence, Private Sector, Standardization, and Quantum Computing
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
3462. Cooperation on Semiconductor Supply Chains and Technology
- Author:
- Soyoung Kwon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The security alliance between the United States and South Korea, once focused primarily on military defense, is evolving to include economic security and technological cooperation. The evolving partnership between the two countries, particularly in the areas of semiconductor supply chains and advanced technologies, features the deepening and broadening of the alliance in the form of a Global Comprehensive Strategic Alliance. This change is driven by intensifying competition between the United States and China, which has led to the securitization of key technologies like semiconductors. This paper examines the opportunities and challenges in deepening and broadening US-South Korea cooperation on semiconductor supply chains. While such developments support the shared objectives of advancing technological innovation, bolstering supply chain resilience, and addressing potential threats from China, challenges remain in diverging threat perceptions and concerns about collective deterrence. The study concludes that aligning strategic objectives in economic security and technological cooperation is essential to ensure the sustainability of the alliance and its ability to navigate the complex global techno-geopolitical landscape.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
3463. From Security Alliance to Comprehensive Technology Centered Partnership
- Author:
- Scott Snyder
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol administrations have embraced the expansion of economic cooperation within the US-ROK alliance, leading to the emergence of South Korea as a valued technology partner of the United States and an era of institutionalization for the bilateral relationship. This issue of Korea Policy examines the commitments of the two governments to cooperate on the development of critical and emerging technologies and is intended to capture major changes in the depth of cooperation reflected in the intensification and expansion of policy dialogues between the two countries in both technology development and the defense industrial base. Major themes highlighted across the papers include challenges to maintaining a technology-centered coalition among like-minded partners, the impact of political transition on the sustainability of technology-driven cooperation, the role of the private sector, and the implications of expanding the concept of an alliance beyond its core security-centered logic. As the alliance management baton passes from the Biden to the Donald Trump administration, an important question will be whether the Biden administration’s efforts to “lock in” institutionalized cooperation are sustainable through the political transition and whether such efforts will only be successful with “buy-in” from President Trump and his new administration.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
3464. Climate shocks and economic resilience: Evidence from Zambia's formal sector
- Author:
- Kwabena Adu-Ababio, Evaristo Mwale, and Rodrigo Oliveira
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Low-income countries face the combined challenges of climate shocks and limited domestic revenue mobilization, yet these issues are rarely studied together. This paper provides new evidence on the impact of climate shocks on firm performance and tax revenue in a low-income country context, using firm-level data from Zambia. We find that extreme weather events, such as excessive rainfall and high temperatures, significantly reduce firms’ sales, input purchases, and tax collection, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, accommodation, and construction. Firms respond by reducing employment and wages, reflecting a decline in productivity. Our findings highlight the need to consider the combined effects of climate shocks on both formal sector productivity and government revenue in developing countries, where taxation on services and goods (e.g. VAT) represents a larger share of government budgets.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Revenue, Firms, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
3465. Gendered effects of climate and conflict shocks on food security in Sudan and the mitigating role of social protection
- Author:
- Aysegül Kayaoglu, Ghassan Baliki, and Tilman Brück
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Climate change and violent conflict are defining challenges of our time. However, it is not yet understood how they interact in shaping human welfare and food security, how their interaction shapes gendered outcomes, or how social protection systems can mitigate their impact. To address these knowledge gaps, we first examine how household food insecurity relates to conflict and climate shocks and whether these associations are gender-sensitive. Second, we test what mechanisms can reduce the negative impacts of these shocks. Our empirical analysis relies on novel survey data of 7,908 rural households collected across 14 states in Sudan in 2022. Sudan currently faces floods, droughts, and violent conflict affecting agricultural production and food supply. We find that climate shocks do not significantly affect food consumption scores (FCS), while exposure to violent conflict leads to a substantial decrease in FCS. Both productive and nonproductive assets increase FCS for all households, especially female-headed households. Longer distances to agricultural input and output markets correlate with lower FCS, particularly for maleheaded households. Women’s social group membership positively impacts on FCS for femaleheaded households. However, women do not receive additional benefits from other social networks during climate and conflict exposure, while male-headed households benefit from all types of social networks. Income diversification is identified as a key strategy for improving FCS, particularly for female-headed households during conflict. Informal cash transfers significantly improve FCS, especially for female-headed households. In contrast, formal cash transfers negatively correlate with FCS, although they positively impact on male-headed households during violent conflict. Overall, we recommend targeted social protection programmes that address gender disparities and enhance resilience among vulnerable populations.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Food Security, Conflict, Gender, and Social Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
3466. Economic impacts of electricity supply shortages in South Africa
- Author:
- Hiroaki Suenaga
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This study examines the sectoral impacts of electricity supply shortages in South Africa, using the cost share information available from the 2015 social accounting matrix. A simulation conducted under each of two technological assumptions, Cobb-Douglas and Leontief, reveals that a productivity decline in the electricity, gas, steam, and hot water supply (EGSH) sector increases the price of the EGSH sector substantially, while it affects the other sectors marginally due to the small cost shares of the EGSH factor in these sectors. The total cost of supplying the baseline final demand increases by ZAR19 billion or 0.46% of the baseline gross value added (GVA) when EGSH productivity declines by 10%. This cost impact expands to ZAR150 billion or 3.57% of GVA when EGSH productivity is halved. Large shares of these cost increments are incurred by the EGSH and manufacturing sectors, owning to the direct physical impact of productivity decline for the former and a large share of its sectoral GVA in the aggregate economy for the latter. The simulation also indicates that the equilibrium wage should increase by a greater extent for workers with a lower education than for those with a higher education if the baseline final demands are to be met at the higher EGSH output price after the sector’s productivity decline
- Topic:
- Economy, Manufacturing, Electricity, Supply, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
3467. The gendered effects of climate shocks on labour and welfare in Zambia
- Author:
- Alessandra Hidalgo-Arestegui, Patricia Justino, Gabriel Monteiro, Rodrigo Oliveira, and Bruce Sianyeuka
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper exploits several waves of two major nationwide representative surveys to document the impacts of climate shocks on individuals and households in Zambia. We merge these datasets with historical precipitation and temperature data at the district level. First, we show the gendered effects of the shocks, which have a higher negative impact on women. Women have a lower probability of being in the labourforce and fewer hours of work when experiencing shocks. Second, we show that households affected by climate shocks have 16% lower consumption, which is mainly explained by female-headed households. We show that social protection policies mitigate income reduction but not consumption, which may suggest that climate shocks affect households directly by reducing their income, but also indirectly by raising food prices.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Labor Issues, Consumption, Gender, and Climate Shocks
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
3468. Raindrop in the drought? Vulnerability to climate shocks and the role of social protection in Zambia
- Author:
- Katrin Gasior, Pia Rattenhuber, Adnan Shahir, and Anna Zasova
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Zambia’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes its economy and population highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and irregular rainfall. This paper assesses the role of social protection, specifically the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) program, in mitigating drought-induced poverty and consumption declines. Using the MicroZAMOD microsimulation model and districtlevel rainfall data, we find that rainfall shocks significantly increase poverty and reduce household consumption, disproportionately affecting the poorest households. While the current SCT program provides some relief, reforms to eligibility criteria, particularly removing the household composition requirement, could improve targeting, expand coverage, and strengthen resilience against climate-related economic shocks.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Tax Systems, Vulnerability, and Social Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
3469. Tax financing options for new social protection instruments: The equity implications of taxing more to expand the South African social security system
- Author:
- Maya Goldman and Ntuthuko Hlela
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we use a static fiscal incidence analysis model to evaluate the poverty and inequality impacts of using fiscal policy to finance expanded social spending in South Africa. We assess three methods to enhance the social protection system’s equity objectives: increasing the size and/or coverage of the existing Social Relief of Distress grant and introducing a universal or working-age basic income grant. The implications of financing these reforms are examined using four tax instruments: increasing the value-added tax rate, increasing personal income tax rates, reducing the personal income tax primary annual rebate, and introducing a surcharge on incomes. While we discuss behavioural effects, they are not included in the model. Our analysis indicates that an expansion of the social security system financed through increased taxation could substantially reduce poverty and inequality to varying degrees depending on the taxes and transfers used.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Inequality, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Social Spending, and Cash Transfers
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
3470. The sustainability of South African fiscal policy
- Author:
- Philippe Burger
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The public-debt-to-GDP ratio in South Africa increased from 26 per cent in the 2008/09 fiscal year to 73.9 per cent in 2023/24, raising fears that fiscal policy is not sustainable. This raises the question: did the government take steps to arrest the increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio and regain fiscal sustainability, and if so, why did they fail? Establishing fiscal sustainability can be done directly or indirectly. Doing it directly entails the government increasing the primary balance in reaction to higher debt levels. Hence, this paper presents a fiscal reaction function. The analysis shows that during the period in which the public-debt-to-GDP ratio rose, the primary balance did indeed react to an increased debt burden, but its level remained too low to arrest the increase in the public-debt-to-GDP ratio. The analysis also assesses whether fiscal fatigue set in, wherein the responsiveness of the primary balance to the debt burden is positive but eventually weakens. Some evidence for the presence of fiscal fatigue is present. One indirect approach to establishing fiscal sustainability is through the impact of expenditure and revenue on economic growth. Leaving revenue for further study later, this paper presents an adapted growth equation to investigate the impact on growth of general government investment and consumption expenditure, and of public (and private) corporation investment. While the effect of private sector investment is positive, neither general government nor public corporation investment has a statistically significant impact on growth. Furthermore, government consumption has a negative impact on growth.
- Topic:
- Investment, Fiscal Policy, Deficit, Sustainability, and Public Debt
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
3471. Spatial consumption inequality in Mozambique
- Author:
- Carlos Gradín
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this paper, I show that the trend in spatial inequality in Mozambique almost entirely explains the outstanding surge in inequality in the country over the past decade, as well as its decline immediately after the pandemic, in contrast to its secondary role in the earliest years. For this analysis, I use an innovative regression-based decomposition framework based on the Recentred Influence Function to estimate each area’s contribution to inequality and a Blinder– Oaxaca approach to disentangle the nature of their contribution to spatial and non-spatial inequality trends. This rise in inequality was mainly due to a generalized drop in consumption experienced by households in the afflicted rural areas in the north and centre of the country, affected by natural disasters and growing conflict. This was aggravated by disproportionally larger economic growth in two urban areas: the Maputo area, which encompassed the capital, during the expansive phase, and the urban area of coal-rich Tete province during the recession that followed. In more recent years, the crisis disproportionally affected the capital and other urban areas, producing a strong mitigating effect on inequality that might be only temporary. The findings of this research have the potential to significantly inform policy decisions to address inequality in Mozambique, thereby contributing to the country’s economic development substantially.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Urban, Rural, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, and Sub-Saharan Africa
3472. Spillover effects of the recent US monetary policy shocks on the South African economy: The role of monetary and fiscal policy coordination
- Author:
- Guangling Liu and Marrium Mustapher
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with an integrated fiscal block to analyse these effects. Regime M (active monetary policy) is more effective at containing the spillover effects but leads to higher public debt, requiring larger future fiscal surpluses. The commitment to price stability under Regime M increases real interest rates, raising domestic debt service costs and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does not use future surpluses to manage public debt. These spillover effects are more amplified under both Regime M and Regime F in the case of a complete exchange rate pass-through and a higher degree of trade openness, with Regime F exhibiting a stronger amplification effect.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America
3473. Dancing on the grid: electricity crises, manufacturing energy vulnerability, and jobs in South Africa
- Author:
- Gideon Ndubuisi, Elvis Korku Avenyo, and Rex Asiama
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- South Africa’s current electricity crises have worsened, placing the country on an uncertain and turbulent economic trajectory. To identify the manufacturing sub-sectors that are most vulnerable to this crises, we use the input–output matrices for the period between 1993 and 2021 to develop a sub-sector energy vulnerability index. Second, we employ the self-constructed energy vulnerability index in a flexible empirical framework to examine the effect of the electricity crises on manufacturing sector jobs in the country. We find that energy vulnerability has a high degree of heterogeneity across manufacturing sub-sectors, highlighting cross-sector differences in the level of exposure and susceptibility to the energy-related crises. Results from the empirical analysis, on the other hand, suggest that electricity crises are associated with significant job destruction, with this adverse effect severe for manufacturing sectors with higher energy vulnerability intensity. The severity of this adverse effect holds irrespective of the nature of jobs, whether formal or informal.
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Manufacturing, Electricity, Vulnerability, and Jobs
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
3474. The experimented society: interventions, social science, and the failure of post-conflict reconstruction in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper critically examines the shortcomings of post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, arguing that an overemphasis on measurable results and causal inference led to overly narrow, community-driven development interventions that failed to appreciate the complex political realities of the country. While these interventions espoused community control, they were in fact the result of a top-down approach reminiscent of earlier state-building efforts, neglected the importance of customary authority structures, and treated Afghanistan as a blank slate for experimentation. Such community-based programmes also lead to a myopic focus on quantifiable metrics at the expense of political considerations, reflecting a broader methodological bias in development studies exemplified by the popularity of randomized controlled trials. Drawing on extensive field observations, the paper contends that such programmes worked against the grain of Afghan society and paradoxically undermined the legitimacy and effectiveness of local governance institutions. The paper concludes by advocating a more holistic, adaptive, and politically informed approach to grassroots development in conflictaffected regions—one that empowers authentic local ownership, aligns with endogenous social and political structures, and grapples with the messy realities of fostering legitimate governance in fragile contexts. The hard-earned lessons from Afghanistan’s recent past should prompt a fundamental rethinking of what constitutes effective development assistance in post-conflict environments.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, Reconstruction, and Post-Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
3475. Statebuilding in fragile countries: What can we learn from past stateness?
- Author:
- Andrea Vaccaro and Rachel M. Gisselquist
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Supporting state capacity is a priority for the international community, yet the record of internationally supported statebuilding to date has been mixed at best. A key question for continuing research concerns the factors influencing more versus less successful interventions. We show that the quality of past ‘stateness’ is crucial in understanding contemporary state fragility and statebuilding. Extending beyond previous work, we introduce the concept of past stateness, consider theoretically its relationship to contemporary fragility, and explore this relationship empirically, drawing on cross-national data and newly developed indicators. In line with our expectations, descriptive and inferential analysis shows that lack of experience of two core features of stateness—monopoly of violence and existence of a professional bureaucracy—in the past century predicts chronic fragility today. This association is mainly driven by monopoly of violence rather than existence of a professional bureaucracy. Our analysis sheds new light on the underlying heterogeneity among states today labelled as ‘fragile’. From a policy perspective, a key implication is that, in designing interventions, the most relevant experiences are likely to be from other countries with similar stateness legacies, rather than from ‘fragile states’ more generally. Our analysis does not imply that statebuilding is impossible in contexts with weak stateness legacies, but it does underscore the challenges of this and the importance of setting expectations appropriately.
- Topic:
- Bureaucracy, State Fragility, Statebuilding, and Monopoly of Violence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3476. Economic geography determinants of spatial wage disparities in South Africa: Evidence from a firm‐level panel
- Author:
- Sanduku Mulumba, Lawrence Edwards, and David Fadiran
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we use the new economic geography (NEG) framework to estimate the extent to which spatial wage disparities in the South African manufacturing sector are an outcome of economic forces such as market access. To test the relationship, we use the anonymized tax data on employers and employees made available by the South African Revenue Service and National Treasury in collaboration with UNU-WIDER. We first document the key stylized facts that characterize the spatial distribution of wages across regions in South Africa using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques. We then test for the existence of a wage structure across South African local and metropolitan municipalities, controlling for individual and firm characteristics using a two-stage estimation method. Consistent with the NEG predictions, we find that wages are higher in municipalities that are closer to large markets, as measured by the Harris market potential index. However, much of the wage effect is driven by the income and employment density of the municipality’s own market, and not that of surrounding areas. These results point to a combination of large spatial rigidities leading to highly localized effects of market potential, together with wage and productivity effects arising from urban agglomeration economies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Manufacturing, Wages, and Market Access
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
3477. Inequality and institutional outcomes in Viet Nam: A combined principal components and clustering analysis
- Author:
- Thu K. Hoang, Klarizze Anne M. Puzon, Hoai Thi Thu Dang, and Rachel M. Gisselquist
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Better understanding of inequality, including its relationship to governance and other key outcomes, is relevant both to academic researchers and to policy-makers. Nevertheless, efforts to establish causal relationships empirically remain hampered by the quality and availability of data, especially for Global South countries at the sub-national level. This paper draws on newly available data on income inequality in Viet Nam at the provincial level to show how unsupervised learning techniques might be used as tools in consideration of the relationship between inequality and governance. While previous empirical work in this area has largely used standard techniques such as regression analysis aimed at establishing causal relationships, this is often hampered by the quality and availability of data. Adopting a different approach, this paper applies K-means clustering and principal components analysis (PCA) to show how unsupervised learning techniques can provide relevant insight into structures and patterns in data. Using PCA, it identifies two groupings of provinces based on similarities in institutional quality measures. K-means analysis points to similar relative inequality levels but substantially different absolute inequality and income levels, suggesting two broad ‘types’ of provinces. The results are suggestive of the positive impact of initial inequality on institutions and that better quality of institutions might reduce inequality for some groups. In general, increased incomes might imply improved inequality and institutional quality outcomes in some cases. A final section considers key limits to such analysis, alongside extensions and further applications.
- Topic:
- Governance, Inequality, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and Viet Nam
3478. Unloved but indispensable: Political parties in Europe
- Author:
- Paul McCarthy, Thibault Muzergues, and Patrick Quirk
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The rise of political parties in their modern form in Europe has historically been associated with the coming of age of mass politics, and the subsequent need for representation of sectional interests (in other words, the interests of specific social classes). Following the end of World War II in Western Europe, and the end of the Cold War in Central and Eastern Europe, political parties became a central component of European democracies. Scholars often describe the 1960s and 1970s as the golden age of (Western) European democratic parties. However, the honeymoon did not last beyond this period. A long decline has made political parties much less relevant to modern politics, as they were often replaced by personalized politics and the politicization of one-issue social movements throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Political parties today are generally unpopular and distrusted by the wider public. Yet what is remarkable is that despite their decline and a crisis that many had described as terminal, European parties have remained at the center of the game in most countries’ political systems. Perhaps even more importantly, they have proved indispensable for the functioning of democracy in Europe: in the Netherlands, despite an extremely atomized party system and a global rejection of parties, no agreement on a coalition government can be passed without negotiations among them. In Italy, the Five Star Movement soon understood that it needed to convert into a much more classical political party to implement its political program: it built more traditional structures and adopted a clear positioning on the very left-right divide that it had claimed to supersede a few years before. The experience of the past decade has shown that despite their unpopularity, political parties remain indispensable for the functioning of democracies in Europe—when they are present, plural, and organized, democracy is doing well. When they are not, or when the party system is unbalanced, democracies suffer and even backslide. To prove this assertion, this paper will look at four telling examples in recent European history, taking from the experiences of Romania, Spain, France, and Hungary.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Elections, Political Parties, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3479. Russia’s digital tech isolationism: Domestic innovation, digital fragmentation, and the Kremlin’s push to replace Western digital technology
- Author:
- Justin Sherman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Digital technology has long been a key component of the Russian government’s power, and for years following the collapse of the Soviet Union there was significant technology entanglement between Russia, the West, and other areas of the world. That changed in the late 2000s and early 2010s with heightened paranoia within the Kremlin about regime security and foreign subversion—and Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has taken this to new levels. Due to combinations of intense securitization, Western sanctions, foreign businesses exiting Russia, tech “brain drain,” and other factors, digital technological isolationism is now both a reality and a desired goal for Moscow. This report examines the history of the modern Russian state’s approach to digital technology, the internet, and connection and interdependence with the West and foreign countries. It then analyzes the Kremlin’s late 2000s and early 2010s shift to a heavily securitized approach to the internet and its concerted push to develop domestic digital technology—both the successes and many failures. It then examines the 2022 Russian war on Ukraine, how the conflict and resulting events (such as sanctions and brain drain) have shifted Russia’s approach to domestic technology and digital isolation, and where different digital technology segments, such as hardware and software, stand.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, Innovation, Isolationism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine
3480. Effective US government strategies to address China’s information influence
- Author:
- Kenton Thibaut
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China’s global influence operations have received increasing attention in the national security community. Numerous congressional hearings, media reports, and academic and industry findings have underscored China’s increased use and resourcing of foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) tactics in its covert operations both in the United States and abroad. In response, US government offices the Foreign Malign Influence Center (FMIC), the Global Engagement Center (GEC), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), among others, have made strides in raising awareness of the issue and charting pathways to increase the resilience of the US information ecosystem to foreign influence. To date, however, the efforts to counter the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have been fragmented. That fragmentation is indicative of a lack of cohesion around the concept of influence operations itself. Across the government and nongovernment sectors alike, there is considerable variation regarding the definition and scope of information manipulation. For example, the Department of State’s (DOS’s) GEC has an expansive definition, which includes “leveraging propaganda and censorship, promoting digital authoritarianism, exploiting international organizations and bilateral partnerships, pairing cooptation and pressure, and exercising control of Chinese-language media.” Others define it more narrowly as disinformation and propaganda spread by a foreign threat actor in a coordinated, inauthentic manner, and largely occurring on social media platforms. This variation is a reflection of the holistic and multifaceted nature of Chinese influence. Coercive tactics and influence operations have long been a central part of China’s strategic tool kit and core to how it engages with the outside world. Because China conceives of the information domain as a space that must be controlled and dominated to ensure regime survival, information operations are part of a much bigger umbrella of influence that spans the economic, political, and social domains. It may be more useful to think of information manipulation as existing within the broader conceptual framework of China’s weaponization of the information domain in service of its goal to gain global influence. As previous work by the Digital Forensic Lab (DFRLab) has shown, China’s approach to the information domain is coordinated and proactive, taking into account the mutually constitutive relationships between the economic, industrial, and geopolitical strategies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The aim of its efforts is to gain influence—or “discourse power”—with the ultimate goal of decentering US power and leadership on the global stage. One of the main mechanisms through which the CCP seeks to achieve this objective is by focusing on the dominance of information ecosystems. This ecosystem encompasses not only narratives and content that appear in traditional and social media but also the digital infrastructure on which communication systems rely, the policies that govern those systems at the international level, and the diplomatic strategy deployed by Beijing’s operatives abroad to gain buy-in for the CCP’s vision of the global order. The DFRLab’s previous two reports, which explored China’s strategy and the impacts of its operations abroad, found that the United States will not be successful in addressing the challenges of Chinese influence if it sees that influence as separate from the interconnected economic, political, and technical domains in which its strategy is embedded. To this end, the DFRLab hosted a series of one-on-one expert interviews, conducted research and workshops, and held a virtual roundtable discussion with scholars and practitioners with expertise on or experience in addressing authoritarian influence and information operations, US government processes and policies around these issues, and Chinese foreign policy. This issue brief is part of a larger body of work that examines the Chinese government’s interests and capabilities and the impacts of party’s efforts to shape the global information ecosystem. The focus of this report is on how the US government can best respond to those challenges, including the architecture, tools, and strategies that exist for addressing PRC influence and information manipulation, as well as any potential gaps in the government tool kit. This report finds that, to mount the most effective response to Chinese influence and the threat it poses to democratic interests at home and on the international stage, the United States should develop a global information strategy, one that reflects the interconnected nature of regulatory, industrial, and diplomatic policies with regard to the information domain. A core assumption undergirding this concept is that US policymaking space tends to over-index on the threat of information manipulation in particular while under-indexing on the core national interest of fostering a secure, interoperable information environment on a larger scale. The limits of understanding Chinese influence as systemic and part of a broader strategy has sometimes led US response to be pigeonholed as an issue of strategic communications, rather than touching on the information and technology ecosystems, among others, where China focuses its information and influence efforts. Responding to Chinese influence with government messaging is not sufficient to address the complex nature of the challenge and places the United States in a position of reactivity. In short, understanding that the CCP (1) integrates its tech industrial strategy, governance policy, and engagement strategy and (2) connects its approach at home to how it engages abroad, the United States needs to do the same, commensurate with its values. It should not respond tit-for-tat but rather have a collective strategy for a global competition for information that connects its tech strategy to its governance approach to its engagement around the world. That is not to say that a US strategy on information resilience should mirror China’s, or that such a strategy should be developed in response to the PRC’s actions in the information domain. Nor is it to say that the United States should adopt a similar whole-of-government approach to the information domain. There are silos by design in the US system and important legal and normative foundations for the clear delineation of mission between them. What this issue brief argues for is a strategic breaking down of silos to facilitate proactive action versus a dangerous breaking down of legally required silos. This report emphasizes that the United States should articulate how major initiatives like the CHIPS and Science Act, regulatory approaches like the recent executive orders on AI and data security, and the DOS’s recent cyberspace and digital policy strategy are part of a cohesive whole and should be understood and operationalized as such. The strategy should outline what the United States stands for as much as what it is against. This requires that the United States frame its assessment of threat within a broader strategy of what its values are and how those values should be articulated in its regulatory, strategic, and diplomatic initiatives to promote open information environments and shore up information resilience. This includes working with allies and partners to ensure that a free, open, and interoperable internet is a global priority as well as a domestic one; developing common standards for understanding and thresholding foreign influence; and promoting connectivity at home and abroad. One finding of this report is that the United States is already leaning into its strengths and values, including championing policies that support openness and continuing support for civil society. This, along with the awareness of influence operations as the weaponization of the information domain, is a powerful response to authoritarian attacks on the integrity of both the domestic US and global information spaces. The United States has a core national security interest in the existence of a rules-based, orderly, and open information environment. Such an environment facilitates the essential day-to-day tasks related to public diplomacy, the basic expression of rights, and investment in industries of strategic and economic value. Absent a coherent strategy on these core issues related to the integrity of the United States’ information environment that is grounded in an understanding of the interconnected nature of their constitutive parts, the challenges of foreign influence and interference will only continue to grow. This issue brief contains three sections. For sections one and two, experts in different aspects of the PRC’s information strategy addressed two to three main questions; during the course of research, further points were raised that are included in the findings. Each section represents a synthesis of the views expressed in response to these questions. The third section comprises recommendations for the US government based on the findings from the first two sections.
- Topic:
- Media, Disinformation, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3481. Adapting US strategy to account for China’s transformation into a peer nuclear power
- Author:
- David Shullman, John K. Culver, Kitsch Liao, and Samantha Wong
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China’s rapidly improving nuclear capabilities and expanding nuclear arsenal underpin its recent rise as a nuclear peer power. For the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region, the uncertainty of China’s intentions behind this nuclear expansion poses a major challenge. It necessitates a revisit of the fundamental assumptions underpinning US and allied planning and preparation for a potential conflict with China. The 2022 White House National Security Strategy1 and National Defense Strategy2 identified China as the only competitor with both the intent and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological wherewithal to reshape the international order. The 2022 United States Nuclear Posture Review noted how China has embarked on an ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces and established a nascent nuclear triad.3 The report further assessed that Beijing will likely possess at least 1,000 deliverable warheads by the end of the decade.4 China also sustains extensive and ambitious space operations. According to the Department of Defense’s 2022 China Military Power Report5, as of 2021, China’s 260 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites were the largest collection of such constellations globally other than the United States’. The transformation of China’s military capabilities no longer represents the linear, stepwise modernization of an outmoded military that characterized the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for the past two decades. Since the PLA launched its major internal command and service restructuring in 2015, previous doctrinal and teaching publications acquired and exploited by Western analysts are out of date and likely declining in relevance. By extension, much of the Western analysis of PLA plans, operations, and concepts of deterrence and escalation control are also likely to be out of date. China’s rapid expansion of strategic warfighting capabilities (i.e., nuclear forces, space/counterspace systems, and cyber/information operations) represents tremendous discontinuity in the pace, scope, and scale of the PLA’s transformation, necessitating a major US reassessment of Chinese strategy, doctrine, and warfighting operations. The commonly accepted notion that deliberate Chinese nuclear force modernization is characterized as “running faster to stay in the same place” to sustain a minimal retaliatory posture is assessed to have evolved. China now has a higher likelihood of using its newfound nuclear power to more actively deter or compel6 its opponents and safeguard its core interests. This includes perceived external threats that could negatively impact domestic political interests. As a step in this reassessment, this project reevaluated China’s strategy, doctrine, and warfighting concepts in light of its ongoing rapid transformation into a peer nuclear power, examined implications of this assessment for future US contingencies in the Indo-Pacific region, and produced several actionable findings and recommendations for US government decision-makers that can be addressed in the next five- to ten-year horizon.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3482. A bipartisan Iran strategy for the next US administration—and the next two decades
- Author:
- Atlantic Council
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The United States needs a bipartisan strategy toward Iran that can be maintained across several administrations, one that works patiently and resolutely to counter Iran’s efforts to dominate the Middle East, drive the United States out, destroy Israel, and threaten Arab allies. Pressure to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and to halt its malign regional influence is crucial—but won’t work absent a strategic goal of new negotiations to address both challenges simultaneously. The United States must also counter Iran’s hostage taking, assassinations, and cyber and election meddling by triggering automatic penalties and responses in lockstep with allies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
3483. The economic and social costs of the war in Gaza
- Author:
- Perrihan Al-Riffai
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A year after the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which later expanded into Lebanon, the two countries in conflict, the Middle East region, and the global economy have been significantly affected. In Gaza, the war has caused nearly $18.5 billion in infrastructure damage, according to preliminary assessments by the World Bank, the United Nations, and the European Union. The onset of the war also led to supply and demand shocks, causing a 21 percent year-on-year decline in Israeli economic activity in the fourth quarter. Lebanon, already deep in an economic crisis before the war, has seen one of its few stable income sources—tourism—collapse. Additionally, as international shipping routes are redirected away from the Suez Canal to avoid risks in the Red Sea, one of Egypt’s primary sources of revenue in foreign currency. In addition to the war, a convergence of factors—high inflation, mounting debt, population displacement, and natural disasters—has created a complex crisis across the region. This combination threatens to deepen poverty and inequality while intensifying climate-related impacts. This report reviews and analyzes the economic impact of the Gaza war on the countries at the epicenter, including Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, as well as the wider region, including the Maghreb countries and the GCC, and the global economy. It tracks the impact on overall economic growth, key sectors, and other implications such as financial volatility, disinvestment, fiscal burdens, and pressure on the oil market. While the report provides comprehensive coverage of these elements, it is worth noting that the war is expanding to involve additional players, and its impact will likely continue to grow.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
3484. The shift from party to personality politics is harming Latin American democracies
- Author:
- Christine Zaino and Sofia Herrera
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Across Latin America and the Caribbean, personality-driven political movements and political outsiders are increasingly prevalent, often at the expense of party-based politics. A theme of recent elections in the region has been a widespread embrace of political figures and movements vowing to upend the status quo. From Ecuador to Argentina to Guatemala, political outsiders have unseated the establishment. Meanwhile, recently formed, ideologically vague political movements in Mexico and El Salvador overtook the traditional parties that they broke away from to win landslide elections. With few exceptions, the region has failed to develop competitive, institutionalized, and programmatic parties. This breakdown in party systems and proliferation of personality-driven movements has not delivered better results. Improving institutionalized competition among programmatic, ideologically distinct, and identifiable parties would bolster Latin American democracy, delivering citizens freedom and prosperity. Within the past decade, several countries with once seemingly institutionalized party systems, such as El Salvador and Mexico, collapsed as parties lost their grip on power to personality-driven figures and movements. Others, like Ecuador and Guatemala, have systems that appear to provide a wide variety of options to citizens through a great proliferation of parties. These systems are unpredictable to citizens, and parties are unable to develop the structure, ideology, and institutionality necessary to deliver solutions to citizen’s needs. This piece examines how political parties across four Latin American countries in two types of systems have failed to serve as effective vehicles for delivering democracy, and what must change for parties in the region to succeed. We examine the breakdown of the formerly institutionalized party systems in Mexico and El Salvador, and the persistently weak parties in Guatemala and Ecuador. Each country’s experience illustrates how a lack of programmatic parties has contributed to poor governance, which fails to adequately deliver essential services to citizens, potentially undermining democracy and the freedom it should deliver. For each case, we reference data from the Atlantic Council Freedom and Prosperity Indexes and other sources to illustrate the critical role of parties in advancing democracy.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Elections, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
3485. Even in authoritarian countries, democracy advocates are worth investing in
- Author:
- Fernanda Buril, Nate Grubman, and Patrick Quirk
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Freedom and democracy are in decline globally, according to the Atlantic Council’s Freedom Index. Political freedom in particular has slumped sharply since 2019, bringing the world to a twenty-four-year low. The biggest backsliders—the places with the sharpest declines in political freedom—span every major geographic region and many are particularly relevant to US national security. There are several fundamental reasons for the United States to support strategies that aim to halt such backsliding and foster democratization, including ones that go beyond the moral obligation to support humanitarian values. For instance, research shows that democracies are less prone to enable and export transnational crime or terrorism, and democracies are better at adapting to adverse economic events and avoiding large-scale disasters, and are more reliable trading partners, offering better business opportunities by upholding the rule of law and protecting investments from the arbitrary predation of political elites. Most notably, the vast majority of people around the world continue to prefer to be governed democratically. Democracy support also strengthens the US position more broadly in the strategic contest against the autocratic rivals of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Robust democratic institutions—transparent judiciaries, capable legislatures, responsive political parties, an active civil society, and a free press—make it harder for the rulers in the autocratic bloc to co-opt elites in other countries and advance their malign agendas. But with the world experiencing a global democratic recession, questions arise as to whether supporting democracy is a losing battle. Despite the bleak recent data on global democratic progress, democracy assistance is still crucial, not only in countries undergoing political openings and democratic consolidation but also—and perhaps even more so—in countries that are backsliding. Case studies in the Middle East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa suggest that using foreign assistance (in addition to and in concert with diplomacy and investment) to support democracy champions wherever they are is an effective strategy, even if the payoff is not immediately apparent at the level of a country’s political system.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Investment, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Latin America, Lebanon, and Sahel
3486. An energy and sustainability road map for the Middle East
- Author:
- Ariel Ezrahi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Global warming is impacting the Middle East at more than twice the global average. In a region already beset by territorial and religious conflicts, this is alarming: Beyond the immediate human suffering from war, the region’s people face severe consequences of global warming. While it is uncertain if humanity can entirely avert this crisis, it is clear that mitigation and adaptation measures are essential to address its worst effects. Climate change respects no borders; for instance, nature does not distinguish between Areas A, B, and C in the West Bank, nor does it differentiate between the rising sea levels along the shores of Tel Aviv and Beirut. Cross-border cooperation will be critical to implementing effective mitigation and adaptation measures. As temperatures rise and extreme weather events, such as intense but infrequent rainfall, become more common, countries in the region must work together to optimize and expand sustainable energy and water resources. This report was partially written prior to the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, which triggered the ongoing Gaza war. Beyond the physical reconstruction required in Israel and the Gaza Strip, the traumas on both sides of the border could take decades to heal. Now, with the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the region has a rare opportunity for rebuilding and peace. On the Israeli side, it is clear that new Israeli leadership will be critical for rebuilding and unifying the country, as well as for mending relations with the Palestinians and the wider region. Saudi Arabia has indicated it would need to see a clear path for an independent Palestinian state for normalization of its relationship with Israel to proceed. Other regional powers, such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, have cooled relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. For there to be a realistic possibility of building on the Abraham Accords—or even taking small steps to increase cooperation in the region—a “New Middle Eastern Order” will need to be established. A comprehensive new US plan could shape this new order. The United States, seen by some in the region as disengaging, now has an opportunity to counter that perception by helping to establish a “New Middle Eastern Order” based on a tangible plan for strong intra-regional energy and climate-related cooperation, alongside efforts to facilitate a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, the energy and climate component could form a cornerstone of the US strategy for the region. The alternative is a region increasingly mired in conflict due to dwindling resources in the face of a worsening climate crisis and a deepening of existing conflicts fueled by a destructive Iranian agenda. Furthermore, this alternative risks exacerbating global conflict-driven emissions and environmental disasters, as seen recently with the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Although tangible cooperation on energy- and climate-related issues has so far been limited, this can—and indeed must—change. The purpose of this piece is to highlight some specific areas where cooperation can be undertaken and advanced under the task force platform outlined below.1
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Markets, Governance, Sustainability, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gulf Nations
3487. What African producers of critical minerals can learn from Indonesia’s experience
- Author:
- Bradford Simmons
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With its success in nickel production, Indonesia has become a model for those seeking to harness “resource nationalism” for domestic benefit. Substantial foreign investment, particularly from China, has been a key variable for Indonesia to become a globally relevant industrial center for nickel processing. While there are insightful lessons that policymakers from mineral-resource-rich African countries can learn from Indonesia, there must be caution in implementing some of Indonesia’s policies, especially export bans as they have had mixed results and depend heavily on external factors. Africa holds a third of the world’s mineral reserves, including critical minerals essential to the green energy transition. Yet, the continent remains underexplored, underdeveloped, and underfunded, receiving just 8–10% of global exploration and investment. Global demand for minerals like copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium is expected to generate $16 trillion over the next 25 years, with sub-Saharan Africa potentially capturing $2 trillion. However, to realize this potential, Africa must shift from raw extraction to value-added processing. Developing local processing industries would boost economic diversification, job creation, tax revenues, and technological advancements while reducing dependency on raw-material exports. To achieve this, African governments must prioritize coherent, forward-looking policies that emphasize value creation. Commissioning technoeconomic studies to identify key supply chain opportunities will help guide investments. Establishing Special Economic Zones for critical minerals can attract international investors and foster industrial hubs. Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area to create robust commodity markets would position Africa as a competitive player. Additionally, streamlining regulatory processes, supporting carbon-free power projects, and advancing infrastructure investments through global initiatives such as the US PGI and EU Global Gateway can facilitate critical mineral processing and transport networks. Export bans, though well-intentioned, often backfire. Historically, they have reduced exports, weakened global trade positions, and worsened infrastructure challenges in energy, transportation, and logistics. Without effective governance and political stability, such policies risk stalling economic growth rather than stimulating it. By focusing on industrial infrastructure, value-added processing, and policies that promote long-term diversification, African countries can move beyond the limitations of raw extraction. With transparent governance and strategic investments, the continent can transform its mineral wealth into a driver of sustainable economic development.
- Topic:
- Environment, Energy Transition, Critical Minerals, and International Markets
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific
3488. A Blue Economy in the Eastern Mediterranean: Climate, Society and Regional Prosperity
- Author:
- Hadas Gann-Perkal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the differences between a blue economy and a maritime economy in the regional context of the Eastern Mediterranean. A blue economy is defined as one that improves human well-being by preserving environmental resources for future generations. Its environmental, climatic and social aspects are intertwined and interdependent. By contrast, a maritime economy is solely driven by profit motives. Two key understandings guide the discussion presented in this paper. The first is that the close connection, and even dependence of human welfare on healthy seas necessitates management of the marine environment so that it both supports economic prosperity and preserves the natural system needed for sustainable living. The second is that adopting the blue economy paradigm as an approach that inherently requires regional cooperation will enable wise implementation and full realization of blue economy advantages, perhaps even before each country fully and independently adopts the approach. The paper examines various blue economy sectors that lend themselves to implementation of a sustainable and regional blue economy paradigm, with a focus on ecotourism and nature conservation. It also proposes guiding principles and policy recommendations to promote the transition from a maritime economy to a regional blue economy. Adopting this blue economy approach bodes a promise of regional prosperity and resilience, as well as water, food and energy security in times of climate crisis and other environmental threats. It also offers hope as a framework for conflict resolution and regional peacebuilding.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peacebuilding, Blue Economy, Energy Security, and Climate Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean
3489. Palestine Is One Vote Short in the Security Council from Being Recognised as a State
- Author:
- Yossi Mekelberg
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The total stalemate in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict requires new thinking and weaning off of old paradigms. Currently as the result of the Hamas attack on October 7, the ensuring war in Gaza, and the deterioration of security in the occupied West Bank, the relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians are at their worst since 1948 and seem the least conducive to a new a peace process. However, events have demonstrated to the international community that allowing this conflict to fester has had disastrous consequences not only for Israelis and Palestinians, but it has also had far-reaching implications across the region and the rest of the international community. This paper argues that an important step to break the deadlock is recognition of Palestinian statehood by individual countries and by international organizations, in particular the UN Security Council. Such recognition should incentivize both sides to negotiate peace based on a two-state solution, as it would overcome the asymmetry in the negotiations between a recognized state and movement representing its people. It will empower the pragmatic elements in both societies who are invested in peace, and will also send a clear message of sincerity from the international community that a two-state solution is the one it is behind and it will support.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, United Nations, State, UN Security Council, 2023 Gaza War, and Peace Process
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
3490. Exaggerations, Obstacles and Opportunities: The Saudi Arabian Position in the Gaza War
- Author:
- Aziz Alghashian
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The paper aims to shed light on the obstacles and opportunities of Saudi involvement in a future Palestinian-Israeli peace process. It first explains the enigmatic nature of Saudi communication towards Israel and explains why Saudi pragmatism has been misunderstood. The paper also explains the rationale behind Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize relations with Israel, and that Saudi-Israeli normalization is treated as a gateway to a larger game-changing strategic treaty with the United States, rather than a keenness to cooperate with Israel itself. In addition, the paper argues that while the Saudi ruling elite are willing to play financial and security roles in “reconstructing” Gaza, it is unforeseeable that this will ensue without a credible peace process that can justify these efforts, especially against the backdrop of Saudi Arabia’s restructuring of its own economy. The paper then explains the ways in which Saudi Arabia, Gulf Arab states, and European states can help cooperate in areas such as building a Palestinian economic horizon that can strengthen the Palestinian-Israeli political framework; developing Palestinian-Israeli green cooperation; and developing an Arab-Israeli network of academics, experts, and journalists that can be an intersection of top-down and bottom-up projects that aim to reach a two-state solution.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Normalization, 2023 Gaza War, and Peace Process
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia
3491. On the Importance of Placebo and Nocebo Effects in International Trade
- Author:
- Lucian Cernat
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Trade agreements are powerful drivers of global economic integration, leading to increased trade flows between countries. Usually, trade agreements are extensive documents with hundreds of provisions and different levels of enforceability. Are all these provisions useful, even those that are “best endeavours” and do not introduce legally binding obligations on trading partners? This policy brief proposes a new methodological approach to evaluate these effects. The basic idea is inspired by the “placebo effect” in medicine: under the right conditions, one can get positive results, even when the actual intervention is simply a “sugar pill”. Similarly, trade policies may have positive effects even when they lack strong, enforceable commitments. A placebo trade policy effect can emerge from “soft provisions” that bring positive trade effects, compared to the “do nothing” scenario. The main hypothesis behind this new methodology is that even if trade interventions lack the force to solve problems outright, a positive placebo effect can arise if stakeholders believe that such a policy will generate favourable market access. Conversely, a negative nocebo effect might emerge when stakeholders are convinced that certain trade policy initiatives (notably FTAs) have a detrimental impact, despite undeniable evidence to the contrary. The paper concludes with a few concrete examples illustrating both the placebo and nocebo effects and identifies factors that may lead to more positive outcomes from current and future trade policies.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and WTO
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3492. A Strategy for a Competitive Europe: Boosting R&D, Unleashing Investment, and Reducing Regulatory Burdens
- Author:
- Andrea Dugo and Fredrik Erixon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The EU stands at a crucial economic juncture. Economic growth in Europe’s mature economies has stagnated, with productivity and other indicators of economic vitality showing poor results. Public debt is alarmingly high in several countries, and the region faces new fiscal demands due to an ageing population, conflicts and war, and the energy transition. To reverse its economic decline, Europe must adopt a new strategy for improved competitiveness. The starting point of this strategy should be an honest assessment of Europe’s declining productivity compared to leading economies like the US. Historically, some European countries matched or even surpassed US productivity levels, but this gap has widened over the past three decades. While the US economy has also faced challenges, its technology, R&D, and innovation sectors have significantly boosted productivity growth. This paper identifies three key areas for policy improvement to rejuvenate Europe’s economic dynamism: Radical expansion of R&D Expenditure: Governments must significantly increase funding for universities and create better conditions for private R&D investments. The EU currently fails to meet its own target of R&D expenditures at 3 per cent of GDP. Achieving parity with US R&D expenditure levels would require an additional €200 billion annually. Mobilisation of European Savings for Investment: Despite a higher savings rate than the US, Europe’s underdeveloped capital markets hinder economic growth and investment in new enterprises. The EU needs policies to channel savings into a vibrant corporate market. Expanding the European bond market, which is currently half the size of the US one, is essential for European firms to secure funding and keep the pace of American innovation. Regulatory Reform: The EU’s restrictive regulatory environment increases business costs and stifles innovation. A shift in regulatory attitudes, for instance in the banking sector, could unlock €4.5 trillion annually, providing much-needed capital for European firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to finance innovation during the green and digital transition. By addressing these areas, Europe can create a more favourable environment for business growth, innovation, and long-term economic stability.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, Digital Economy, Investment, and Research and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3493. The External Side of Europe’s Great Economic Transformation: International Trade in Services
- Author:
- Lucian Cernat and Carmen Díaz Mora
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Europe’s digital transition is starting to bear fruits. Europe’s economic landscape is becoming increasingly digital, with sectors like information and communication technology (ICT) capturing a growing share of EU GDP. This Policy Brief examines the impact of these economic shifts on Europe’s trade profile and the policies that the EU can pursue to support this transformation.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, European Union, Regional Economy, and Digital Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3494. Future-proofing the EU’s Investment Attractiveness: A Bold Reform Agenda for Competition Enforcement, Taxation and Digital Policy
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Reducing the deterrent effects from EU and Member State laws in three key cross-sector policy areas – competition policy, business taxes and VAT, and digital policies – could significantly enhance the business environment within the Single Market and boost the EU’s attractiveness to both domestic and foreign investors. The EU’s future competitiveness is at risk due to a significant disparity in investments, particularly in technological innovation, compared to the US. Despite having a larger population and labour force, the EU lags behind in large business activities, with US firms consistently outspending their European counterparts in key tech-intensive sectors such as software, computer services, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology. Moreover, China and other emerging nations are rapidly catching up, dramatically diminishing the EU’s relative economic and political influence on the global stage. The urgency for the EU to bridge these gaps is more critical than ever (Section 2). The EU’s profound investment gap highlights a systemic advantage for the US in fostering innovation and economic growth. The EU’s regulatory complexity, largely driven by legal fragmentation in horizontal policies, further exacerbate the situation, deterring cross-border activities reducing the region’s attractiveness to global investors (Section 3).
- Topic:
- Markets, Reform, European Union, Digital Economy, Investment, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3495. What Mode of Supply Will Matter the Most for the Future of Services Trade?
- Author:
- Lucian Cernat
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief looks at the latest trends in services trade and tries to show their importance, in its various manifestations, for virtually all countries in the world. The paper starts with a short history of trade in services across centuries. Fast forward to today’s realities, the paper uses the most comprehensive datasets documenting the latest trends in global trade in services by modes of supply, trying to fill a gap in trade policy analysis and providing new insights on the importance of different modes of supply for various countries. The paper concludes with some recommendations aimed at creating a bridge between the various policy priorities shaping the future of globalisation in coming years.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Services, Trade, and Supply
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3496. Negotiating Uncertainty in UK-EU Relations: Past, Present, and Future
- Author:
- David Henig
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Ten key points to negotiating the UK-EU relationship: Europe has been weakened by difficult UK-EU relations at a time of international challenge. Eight years after the Brexit referendum a new UK government and European Commission provides a good opportunity to reset approaches and put obstructions aside. Too big for either side to ignore, this will always be an important, time-consuming, and slightly chaotic relationship – which thus needs a much firmer footing based on the following shared understanding: Probably the broadest, deepest bilateral relationship in the world, adding the world’s second largest trade flow to integrated neighbourhood challenges, meaning inevitable complexity and ongoing negotiation of many different topics. This has been insufficiently recognised, and should ideally be considered jointly, e.g. in terms of a shared vision, road map, scoping, implementation, otherwise even agreeing sequencing will always be problematic; Wide scope, with inevitable challenges and tensions, requiring regular senior-level contact, this should start with annual summits that develop mutual understanding, supported by regular meetings between UK Ministers and Commissioners, senior official meetings, and the sharing of information at expert level. There should not be a single undertaking negotiation; Divorce taking time to overcome, emotions on both sides are settling but still livelier than normal between nominal allies, with many involved who would simply like the unattainable return to the pre-2016 state, and others just as strongly opposed in various ways; EU needs to be less rigid given the UK will not neatly fit into existing models, there being too many mutual interests, from which will flow multiple arrangements and deals. Showing greater willing to a now more constructive counterpart means creativity in how to structure the relationship to deliver mutual interests as well as specific asks of both sides; Negotiations must informally include many actors, such as businesses, civil society, lower-level governments, academics, listening to whom should be the basis for the UK and EU shaping mutually acceptable deals. All of these stakeholders will equally have to learn to live with the uncertainty and difficulties of an ongoing relationship with multiple strands; UK previously a naïve negotiator failing to understand this collaborative yet still competitive, and increasingly public, nature of modern trade negotiations, or its new third country status. Positive signs of learning shown with the Windsor Framework should be developed – to include ‘Team UK’ negotiating, openly testing ideas with specialists, and understanding the EU, importance of trust in implementation, and limits of taking back control; Northern Ireland will always require special handling as a part of the UK whose peace process requires strong relations with the rest of the country and the EU. Ambiguity and flexibility will continue to be needed; There is no perfect model for future UK-EU relations, all potential options having drawbacks rendering them somewhat unstable, and no swift negotiating path to most of them. While the UK is not a member of the EU there will always be barriers to trade and movement of people which both sides with their priorities will aim to discuss, negotiate, and seek to ease; Public communications and understanding around the relationship must be improved, whether that is in terms of negotiating progress, realistic options for both sides, care with overly-simplistic messaging, or particular terminology with often multiple meanings; Despite uncertainty there will be a steady move towards deeper, more robust arrangements, since both UK and EU have strong interests in making these happen, but this will not be a quick or steady process, instead it will come from considerable engagement, flexibility, and patience, to create something that is tolerable if always slightly sub-optimal.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
3497. Enhancing Technology Diffusion in the EU amid Tough Structural Challenges
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer, Elena Sisto, and Oscar du Roy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- To remain globally competitive, the EU must empower firms to adopt the best technology solutions available on global markets. Building on a strong tradition of innovation, the EU relies on corporations across industries to drive the diffusion of technology through the commercialisation of technological innovations. Technology diffusion is crucial for embedding new technologies into society and is essential for sustaining industrial competitiveness. EU and Member State governments must prioritise enhancing the EU’s “diffusion capacity” – the ability to effectively spread and adopt innovations across Member States.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Digital Economy, and Services
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3498. Is the European Union Deforestation Regulation WTO-Proof?
- Author:
- Bruno Capuzzi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is set to take effect on 30th December 2024. While it aligns with EU’s climate goals under the European Green Deal, it has sparked concerns with EU partners regarding its compatibility with World Trade Organization (WTO) principles. Internally, some member-States and productive sectors fear that the lack of clarity in its rules could disrupt European supply chains. Products like coffee, chocolate, and leather are some examples where costs and price are expected to rise due to compliance requirements, documentation, and shipment segregation. Critics argue that the EUDR’s unilateral imposition of EU standards on third countries could be viewed as extraterritorial and more restrictive than necessary towards its objectives. This paper analyses lessons from WTO reports on US Shrimp/Turtle and US Tuna/Dolphin, which are relevant to discussions on non-product-related processes and production methods (PPMs). Key findings suggest that the EUDR could be justified under GATT exceptions clause (Article XX). However, for this to be successful, the Policy Brief proposes more flexibility in considering local realities of exporting countries. This would include shifting the EUDR approach to cooperating towards an outcome-based equivalence systems instead of rigid procedural requirements.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, European Union, Trade, WTO, Deforestation, and Mercosur
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Latin America
3499. Empires of Exceptionalism: Lessons from the EU AI Act and Attempts at AI Legislation in California
- Author:
- Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Claudia Lozano
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The EU AI Act, which passed after three years of negotiations and much ambivalence, sets a comprehensive regulatory framework that reflects the European Union’s unique needs that are not translatable to other jurisdictions. The proposed bill in California (SB 1047) illustrates this case in point. The bill could potentially mislead the public into thinking that AI is already under effective regulatory control. Lawmakers must recognize that the EU differs from other systems. The EU AI Act is not only shaped by the desire to slow down global AI development, allowing Europe to catch up with rivals like the US and China: The EU lacks an enforceable constitution, and the Act prohibits its governments to impose social scoring and discriminatory measures. SB 1047 only addressed humanity-ending disasters and had unclear practical value. Meanwhile, the EU AI Act was passed into law to prevent internal competition and Europe’s history of authoritarianism. Existing laws in California and the EU already regulate most AI use cases. In addition, the EU AI Act reviews existing regulations to ensure they are still fit for purpose, something California failed to do in SB 1047. A critical takeaway is to examine existing obligations or executive powers (including enforcement agencies and public funding) to achieve the desired policy objectives. The diverging outcomes of the two laws show the importance of avoiding mismatches between policy objectives and legislative scope. AI regulation cannot substitute for other policy objectives, like privacy and antitrust. Also, lawmakers must weigh the cost of failed regulation against the risks of non-regulation. California did not see any immediate costs of inaction, whereas delayed action by the EU might have led to the fragmentation of its internal market. Also, given its collective decision-making, the EU can escape accountability for policy failures due to premature laws in a way the leaders in other political systems cannot.
- Topic:
- European Union, Digital Economy, Legislation, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, California, North America, and United States of America
3500. Shared Liability: The European Parliament’s Misstep in Fighting Financial Fraud
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer, Andrea Dugo, and Dyuti Pandya
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- The rise in financial fraud has prompted regulatory proposals under the Payment Services Regulation in the form of a shared liability model provisioned under Article 59. The potential proposal by the European Parliament could now extend liability beyond Payment Service Providers to Electronic Communications Service Providers and online platforms. While the intent to address fraud is commendable, this model misallocates responsibilities by requiring non-financial entities to oversee fraudulent activities, despite their lack of visibility and technical control over financial transactions. Extending liability to non-financial entities risks undermining consumer vigilance and diluting payment services providers’ efforts to maintain fraud awareness. A shared liability regime covering non-financial entities would also disproportionately burden smaller “digital” firms, leading to legal uncertainties, costly legal disputes, and market exits. This would not only drive market concentration and reduce competition in digital services but also undermine EU and Member State efforts to support Europe’s lagging digital start-ups and scale-ups. The resulting harm to innovation and entrepreneurship would be a significant setback to the EU’s broader digital ambitions.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, Services, European Parliament, Fraud, and Liability
- Political Geography:
- Europe