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3161. Women, Motherhood, and Structural Transformation. Insights from Rural Latin America

Author:
Mariana Marchionni, Julián Pedrazzi, and Maria Florencia Pinto
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Structural transformation—the shift from agriculture toward industry and services—is a defining feature of economic development, with the potential to reshape gender gaps in labor markets. Yet little is known about how this process has unfolded in rural Latin America, where women face a double disadvantage stemming from both gender and rurality. In this paper, we document the evolution of rural women’s labor market outcomes in 14 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2023, drawing on harmonized household surveys that provide comparable indicators across time and space. We complement this analysis with a pseudo-event study around the birth of the first child to estimate motherhood effects, and with time-use data from Mexico to explore household mechanisms that constrain women’s labor supply. Our results show that despite important educational progress, rural women continue to lag behind rural men and urban women in employment, hours worked, and earnings. Structural transformation has contributed to declining informality and rising participation in services and formal salaried jobs, but it has not closed rural-urban or gender gaps: unpaid family labor and other precarious forms of employment remain widespread. Motherhood further exacerbates these disadvantages. While rural mothers experience smaller short-term employment drops than urban mothers and show some recovery over time, they are increasingly pushed into unpaid work and low-skilled self-employment, reinforcing long-term income gaps. Evidence from Mexico suggests that this disadvantage is not primarily driven by childcare demands—similar across rural and urban mothers— but rather by heavier burdens of household chores, home production for own consumption, and lower access to labor-saving technologies. By providing the first systematic evidence on how structural transformation interacts with motherhood in rural Latin America, our paper makes two contributions. First, it fills a gap in the literature by offering a detailed, cross-country account of rural women’s labor market outcomes over two decades in a region where evidence has been scarce. Second, it brings together insights from the literature on structural change and child penalties, showing that structural transformation alone is insufficient to generate inclusive labor market opportunities for rural women when unpaid work and caregiving responsibilities remain unequally distributed.
Topic:
Children, Inequality, Rural, Gender, Structural Transformation, and Motherhood
Political Geography:
Latin America

3162. The Potential Distributive Impact of AI-driven Labor Changes in Latin America

Author:
Matias Ciaschi, Guillermo Falcone, Santiago Garganta, Leonardo Gasparini, Octavio Bertín, and Lucía Ramírez-Leira
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices—the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the ComplementarityAdjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AIGenerated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)—to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first-order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI-related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Latin America

3163. The Impact of Family Structure on Educational Attainment: An Analysis for Mexico Using EMOVI-2017

Author:
Martín Finkelstein
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Using the 2017 Mexican Social Mobility Survey (ESRU-EMOVI 2017), this study documents how family structure during upbringing is a key determinant of educational results. Individuals raised in two-parent households attain between 0.25 and 0.38 more years of education and show, on average, a two to three percentage point higher probability of completing higher education than their peers raised without one of their parents at home. An analysis of why individuals drop out of the education system indicates that differences in educational attainment may stem from a lack of opportunities. The evidence points to parental death as a significant contributor to this gap. Individuals who lose a parent during their formative years complete, on average, between 0.9 and 1 fewer years of education and are 3 to 5 percentage points less likely to complete higher education. The timing of parental death is critical: experiencing the loss of a parent during adolescence (between ages 13 and 18) is particularly detrimental to the likelihood of achieving key educational milestones.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Household, Social Mobility, and Family Structure
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

3164. Are Elites Meritocratic and Efficiency-Seeking? Evidence from MBA Students

Author:
Marcel Preuss, Germán Reyes, Jason Somerville, and Joy Wu
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Elites disproportionately influence policymaking, yet little is known about their fairness and efficiency preferences—key determinants of support for redistributive policies. We investigate these preferences in an incentivized lab experiment with a group of future elites—Ivy League MBA students. We find that MBA students implement substantially more unequal earnings distributions than the average American, regardless of whether inequality stems from luck or merit. Their redistributive choices are also highly responsive to efficiency costs, with an elasticity an order of magnitude larger than that found in representative U.S. samples. Analyzing fairness ideals, we find that MBA students are less likely to be strict meritocrats than the broader population. These findings provide novel insights into how elites’ redistributive preferences may shape high levels of inequality in the U.S.
Topic:
Inequality, Higher Education, Students, Elites, Efficiency, Policymaking, and Meritocracy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3165. Does the Enforcement of Labor Regulations Reduce Informality? The Case of Peru

Author:
Maria Florencia Pinto, Yulia Valdivia Rivera, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This article examines the effects of strengthened labor regulation enforcement on labor market outcomes in Peru from 2010 to 2019. In 2013, the Peruvian government established a national labor inspection agency, which was progressively rolled out nationwide. This reform led to a substantial increase in the frequency and severity of fines imposed on formal firms. Despite this heightened enforcement, our analysis using extended two-way fixed effects models finds no significant effects on overall employment levels. Moreover, there is no evidence of changes along either the intensive margin—informal employment within formal firms—or the extensive margin—the share of employment in informal firms. These findings suggest that increased enforcement of labor regulations did not lead to measurable shifts in labor informality or employment outcomes during this period.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Regulation, Informal Economy, Inspection, Enforcement, and Fines
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

3166. Effects of Immigration on Native Learning: The Case of the Venezuelan Crisis

Author:
Nicolás Irazoque Sillerico
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides the first estimate of the impact of the Venezuelan exodus on Colombian students’ learning. To identify the impact, I use the reopening of the ColombianVenezuelan border in 2016 as a natural experiment and propose a differences-in-differences design. The results indicate that, on average, native high school students exposed to immigrants on the schools experience a decrease of 1.8% of a standard deviation in their academic performance and the effect is persistent for the first four years and tends to zero after that. A possible mechanism for this negative effect is that teachers allocate class time to assist lower-achieving Venezuelans. This effect becomes insignificant when the concentration of immigrants is higher. The negative effect is larger for women, for Colombians with high achievement, with highly educated mothers, and for natives who attend schools with high average scores and a high concentration of educated mothers.
Topic:
Education, Immigration, Children, and Peer Effects
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

3167. Generative AI in Higher Education: Evidence from an Elite College

Author:
Zara Contractor and Germán Reyes
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Generative AI is transforming higher education, yet systematic evidence on student adoption remains limited. Using novel survey data from a selective U.S. college, we document over 80 percent of students using AI academically within two years of ChatGPT’s release. Adoption varies across disciplines, demographics, and achievement levels, highlighting AI’s potential to reshape educational inequalities. Students predominantly use AI for augmenting learning (e.g., explanations, feedback), but also to automate tasks (e.g., essay generation). Positive perceptions of AI’s educational benefits strongly predict adoption. Institutional policies can influence usage patterns but risk creating unintended disparate impacts across student groups due to uneven compliance.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Higher Education, Students, Elites, and ChatGPT
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3168. The Gendered Impact of Social Norms on Financial Access and Capital Misallocation

Author:
Arti Grover and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on the nature of financial constraints faced by women entrepreneurs, especially in contexts of stringent social norms. Using micro-data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for 61 countries, the analysis shows that formal firms managed by women do not face credit constraints on the extensive margin. They are equally likely to apply for credit as their male counterparts and experience lower rates of credit rejection, with a higher likelihood of opening credit lines. However, on the intensive margin, firms managed by women receive lower credit amounts, indicating signs of credit constraints. This disparity in access to credit cannot be explained by gender differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity. However, firms managed by women have lower sales per worker, suggesting challenges in accessing product and labor markets. The paper finds suggestive evidence of capital misallocation based on gender, particularly in countries with more restrictive gender and cultural norms. Firms managed by women demonstrate a 15 percent higher average return on capital compared to firms managed by men, indicating the potential benefits of increased access to credit for women-led businesses. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing gender-specific constraints to accessing finance and promoting gender-inclusive policies to enhance firm growth and reduce capital misallocation.
Topic:
Credit, Gender, Firms, Social Norms, and Capital Misallocation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3169. Wage Floors Set in Collective Bargaining: Evidence on Wages and Employment in Argentina

Author:
Lucía Ramírez Leira, Carlo Lombardo, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
In Argentina, the national minimum wage (NMW) coexists with sectoral wage floors (WF) established through collective bargaining agreements (CBA). These WFs exceed the NMW for most registered workers, rendering the minimum wage largely ineffective. Using novel data on union-negotiated wages combined with administrative records, this paper analyzes the impact of WFs set in CBAs on employment, wages, and wage inequality among formal workers. The analysis is conducted at both the industry and individual levels, utilizing a fixed-effects model by year and sector and a linear probability model based on individual worker trajectories. Results indicate that CBAs reduce overall wage inequality by decreasing inequality at the upper end of the distribution without affecting the lower end. No significant employment effects are found, except for a negative impact in sectors with a higher proportion of small firms (MSMEs). However, at the worker level, CBAs reduce the probability of remaining employed for workers near the wage floors, with more negative effects observed in MSMEs. Finally, CBAs’ positive effect on wage increases and negative effects on employment are more pronounced in unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.
Topic:
Employment, Inequality, Unions, Minimum Wage, and Collective Bargaining
Political Geography:
South Asia and Argentina

3170. Characterizing Green and Carbonintensive Employment in India

Author:
Andres Ham, Emmanuel Vazquez, and Monica Yanez-Pagans
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Transitioning toward sustainable development practices is expected to result in broad changes to economic activity, which will subsequently impact labor markets and change the demand for skills. India established the Skill Council for Green Jobs to identify green jobs and define the skills required for these occupations. This paper applies the Skill Council for Green Jobs definition of green jobs and an international definition of carbon-intensive jobs to data from the 2019-20 Periodic Labour Force Survey to estimate the size of green and carbon-intensive employment, document patterns between and within occupations, characterize workers by attributes and skills, and study wage differentials. The results highlight the importance of monitoring green and carbonintensive jobs with robust labor market monitoring systems to guide decisions on the sustainability transition and suggest key aspects to consider when investing in green skills and the potential distributive consequences of sustainability policies on the population.
Topic:
Climate Change, Employment, Sustainability, Labor Market, Skills, Green Jobs, and Carbon-Intensive Jobs
Political Geography:
South Asia and India