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2881. Western countries' sanctions offensive against Russia

Author:
Elżbieta Kaca and Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The renewed sanctions imposed by the US, the UK and the EU will reduce Russia's ability to finance its military operations by hitting the oil and gas sectors, which still generate around 25% of its budget revenue. The sanctions underscore the US's determination to force Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine. As a consequence, Russia's economic problems will worsen, and its economic and political influence abroad, including in certain EU countries, will diminish. However, the effectiveness of the restrictions will depend on how they are implemented by the US, how they are further tightened — especially against the Russian shadow fleet — and whether secondary sanctions are applied.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and United States of America

2882. China Trying to Strengthen Dialogue with India

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
China sees India as its main rival in Asia. However, the Chinese authorities are maintaining a dialogue with the Indian government, recently even signalling a conciliatory attitude. In this way, they want to prevent an escalation in bilateral relations and try to influence India’s relations with the U.S. and the European Union in a way that is beneficial to China. Although China’s attempts to strengthen dialogue with India are tactical in nature, even a short-term improvement in bilateral relations poses a challenge for the EU. Attempts to reduce Europe’s dependence on China, in which India is to play an important role, are now in question.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

2883. Has the War in the Gaza Strip Ended? Chances for Peace

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Israel and Hamas have begun talks about ending the war, based on a plan presented by U.S. President Donald Trump. While the first phase—a ceasefire and the exchange of hostages and prisoners—is being implemented, further stages depend on concessions on strategic issues, primarily the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. The parties are under greater pressure than before from external partners, as seen at the summit of leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh, which increases the chances of at least partial implementation of the peace plan.
Topic:
Disarmament, Donald Trump, Hamas, Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2884. In Run-up to Parliamentary Elections, Moldova is Hovering between European Integration and the Unknown

Author:
Jakub Pieńkowski
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 September will have a decisive impact on Moldova’s continued efforts to integrate with the European Union. Russia has intensified its influence operations to manipulate the results and remove the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) from power. Poll results indicate that PAS may lose its majority, which would likely force it into an unstable minority government or a coalition with Eurosceptic or only nominally pro-Western parties.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moldova

2885. NATO and the EU Respond to Russian Maritime Sabotage

Author:
Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Since October 2023, Russia has damaged 11 undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea. In response, NATO launched the Baltic Sentry mission, allies began inspecting tankers belonging to the “shadow fleet”, and the EU imposed sanctions on some of them. As a result, further incidents have been prevented since the beginning of 2025, but Russia is escalating the situation by using drones for provocations. NATO and EU countries should take more decisive action against the “shadow fleet” and strengthen cooperation with private operators of critical infrastructure.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Maritime, Sabotage, Russia-Ukraine War, and Critical Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2886. Kenyan Mission to Haiti Demonstrates Revival of African-Caribbean Cooperation

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
On 2 October, the mandate of the Kenya-led stabilisation mission in Haiti will expire. Its undertaking was the clearest example of growing African-Caribbean cooperation. The two regions also intend to intensify economic cooperation, as well as work more closely together to obtain reparations for the colonial period, as indicated by participants at the second African Union (AU)-Caribbean Community (CARICOM) summit in Addis Ababa.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Economic Cooperation, African Union, Stabilization, and Caribbean Community (CARICOM)
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Caribbean, and Haiti

2887. EU Cooperation with the International Criminal Court

Author:
Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
For years, the EU has consistently supported the International Criminal Court (ICC), considering it one of the key elements in promoting human rights, humanitarian law and justice around the world. The uneven commitment of states to cooperation with the Court, successive decisions to denounce its Statute, and the sanctions imposed on the ICC by Donald Trump's administration are all hampering its functioning, but have not been met with a firm response from the EU.
Topic:
Human Rights, European Union, International Criminal Court (ICC), and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

2888. China Launches the International Organisation for Mediation

Author:
Stefania Kolarz and Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
China is introducing the International Organisation for Mediation (IOMed), which became operational on 29 August, as a complement to the international dispute resolution system. In practice, it is another initiative to gather countries of the Global South around China and intended to be a counterweight to international institutions they consider to be dominated by Western countries.
Topic:
Global South, International Institutions, Dispute Resolution, and International Organization for Mediation (IOMed)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2889. EU Clean Industry Deal: Strengthening Competitiveness in Green

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
In the face of increasing trade pressure from the United States and growing competition from China, the European Union announced actions to rebuild the competitiveness of European industry, as included in the Clean Industry Deal (CID). Increasing the EU’s economic independence while maintaining ambitious climate goals will be a challenge for the industry, especially if electrification based on renewable sources is assumed. Therefore, solutions supporting the attractiveness to businesses of EU production will be decisive, including through efficient deregulation and reduction of energy prices and especially in view of the growing dynamics of changes in the structure of global markets. The EU’s flexible and adaptive approach to the energy transformation will be important here, in particular for countries still dependent on fossil sources, such as Poland.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Industry, and Clean Industry Deal (CID)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

2890. Reforming the EU Energy Market to Increase Competitiveness and Resilience

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Intensifying tensions in global trade and China’s growing competitive advantage mean that the European Union faces an urgent need to provide more decisive support for the development of its own economy. The implementation of the electricity market reform (EMD), approved in May 2024, is of particular importance. It was initiated in response to the need to reduce energy prices, which directly impact, among other things, the investment attractiveness of the EU and its competitiveness. Maintaining energy market stability and subsidy guarantees may, however, make it difficult to achieve the EU’s ambitious climate goals, which the European Commission is even tightening.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, European Union, Electricity, Resilience, Economic Competition, and Energy Markets
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia