Search

Begin New Search Publication Year within 1 Year Publication Year within 25 Years

2871. Let the poor breathe! Poverty and anti-government protests in Nigeria

Author:
Daniel Tuki and Hussaini Kwari
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Despite the rising incidence of poverty in Nigeria and the increasing frequency of anti-government protests driven by citizens’ inability to meet their basic food needs, there remains a notable gap in research exploring the link between poverty and protest participation in Nigeria. Drawing on the human needs theory and survey data from Afrobarometer, this study investigates how poverty – both at the individual and communal levels – relates to Nigerians’ willingness to participate in anti government protests. Individual-level poverty is assessed using an index capturing the frequency with which respondents and their household members lacked access to necessities such as food, water, cooking fuel, medicine, and income over the past year. Communal wealth is measured by the mean annual nighttime light intensity within a 30 km radius of respondents’ dwellings. Regression analysis reveals that higher scores on the Lived Poverty Index increase the likelihood of Nigerians having protested in the previous year. Higher poverty scores also increase people’s willingness to participate in future protests and reduce their likelihood of choosing not to protest. Likewise, greater nighttime light intensity decreases individuals’ likelihood of having been involved in past protests, reduces their willingness to participate in future protests, and increases their likelihood of opting not to protest. These results are robust across different operationalisations of protest and to the use of individual survey data covering 36 African countries.
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Reform, Economy, Protests, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2872. Determinants of institutional trust in sub-Saharan Africa: Does media exposure matter?

Author:
Nabilatou A. O. Bouraima, Mamadou Alpha Diallo, and Sylvain Hekponhoue
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
As the main channel for information about institutions and their performance, the media have the potential to influence citizens’ perceptions of them. In recent decades, the media environment has undergone significant change, making different types of information readily available. At the same time, trust in public institutions has declined, weakening democracy and raising concerns about the role of the media in the loss of institutional trust. We argue that in sub-Saharan Africa, where institutions are widely portrayed as underperforming, citizens’ exposure to the media can negatively affect their trust in those institutions. We explore the relationship between media exposure and institutional trust in developing countries using five rounds of Afrobarometer surveys in 35 sub Saharan African countries and secondary data from the World Development Indicators and the Quality of Governance database. Linear hierarchical regression and multilevel regression analyses at individual and country levels show a strong negative relationship between media exposure and institutional trust, though the effect varies across media types. Our findings point to strategies for strengthening institutional trust and legitimacy by improving the quality of governance and economic performance and stepping up the fight against corruption.
Topic:
Development, Media, Institutions, Trust, and Perception
Political Geography:
Africa

2873. Exposure to violent conflict and attitudes toward wife beating in Africa

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
There is a notable lack of research examining the relationship between exposure to violent conflict and attitudes toward wife beating in Africa. This study addresses that gap by analysing data from rounds 7 and 9 of the Afrobarometer surveys, covering 39 African countries (N=99,267). Exposure to violent conflict is measured by computing the number of conflict incidents within a 30 km radius of respondents’ dwellings. Attitudes toward wife beating are assessed based on survey responses to a question on whether it is ever justifiable for a man to beat his wife. Regression analysis reveals that higher exposure to violent conflict reduces the likelihood of supporting wife beating. This negative correlation persists when the data are disaggregated based on gender and models are estimated using the male and female subsamples. A possible explanation for this finding is that individuals who are exposed to violence are well aware of its devastating effects and hence are more likely to oppose wife beating. Furthermore, areas with high incidences of conflict may have ongoing community programmes focused on reducing violence, promoting peace, and encouraging reconciliation. In such regions, individuals may be more exposed to these initiatives, which could lead to stronger opposition to violent behaviour.
Topic:
Gender Based Violence, Conflict, Intimate Partner Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa

2874. The impact of terrorism on democratic support in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo and Anja Neundorf
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does chronic terrorism affect support for democracy in fragile states? While most research examines isolated attacks in stable democracies, little is known about persistent violence in insecure, weakly institutionalised contexts. This paper addresses that gap by analysing Africa, where terrorism is widespread and democratic transitions remain incomplete. Using Afrobarometer survey data matched with terrorism events, we employ an entropy balancing strategy within an unexpected event-during-survey (UESD) design to estimate causal effects. We find that terrorism consistently undermines democratic support – especially in countries with stronger liberal institutions and lower development. Younger and older citizens are particularly susceptible to attitudinal shifts. These findings highlight how terrorism’s political impact hinges not just on exposure, but also on broader structural vulnerabilities shaped by institutions, development, and demography. The study advances theories of authoritarian reflex and threat perception, offering new insights into sustaining democracy amid chronic insecurity.
Topic:
Security, Development, Terrorism, Democracy, Institutions, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Africa

2875. Conflict exposure and health-care perceptions: Micro-level evidence from Africa

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Although considerable research has examined the impact of violent conflict on health outcomes in Africa – such as undernutrition, child mortality, and maternal mortality – a significant gap remains in understanding how it affects individuals’ perceptions of health-care services and the quality of their interactions with health-care staff during hospital visits. This study seeks to address that gap by analysing data from Round 9 of the Afrobarometer survey, conducted across 39 African countries between 2021 and 2023 (n=53,444). Regression analysis indicates that greater exposure to violent conflict is associated with a lower probability of individuals visiting a health-care facility in the past year, likely due to fear of victimisation, which suppresses health-seeking behaviour. Among the subset of respondents who did visit a health-care facility, further analysis shows that conflict exposure is linked to more negative evaluations of the care received. Specifically, it increases the likelihood of individuals reporting poor service quality, experiencing disrespect from health-care staff, and having to pay bribes to access needed care.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Bribery, Healthcare System, Malnutrition, Child Mortality, and Maternal Mortality
Political Geography:
Africa

2876. Who benefits from bank proximity? Insights on financial inclusion from Afrobarometer surveys in Ethiopia

Author:
Abreham Adera and Roberto Melis
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The Global Findex survey asks unbanked adults why they do not have a bank account, and many cite the physical distance to bank branches as a key barrier. Does bringing a bank closer encourage them to open an account? To address this question, we analyse data from rounds 8 and 9 of the Afrobarometer survey for Ethiopia. To estimate the causal effect of bank proximity on financial inclusion, we employ propensity score matching (PSM), which compares individuals with similar characteristics but differing access to nearby banks. Overall, we find that bank proximity significantly enhances financial inclusion, with individuals living near a bank being more likely to own an account. Additionally, we find that the effect of bank proximity on financial inclusion is heterogeneous by location and gender. Rural residents (regardless of gender) benefit more than urban residents. Gender differences are evident in urban areas, with women more likely than men to own a bank account. However, in rural areas, women and men benefit equally from bank proximity
Topic:
Governance, Finance, Institutions, Banking, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and East Africa

2877. Demanding more: Does education increase public backing for good governance in Africa?

Author:
Nnaemeka Ohamadike and Stuart Morrison
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This paper investigates how education shapes public attitudes toward transparent and accountable governance in Africa. Much of the research on governance and education has focused on Western contexts, leaving the African perspective underexplored. Afrobarometer surveys show that many Africans consistently support transparent and accountable governance, with growing education and awareness of anti-corruption efforts across the continent. Yet little is known about how education influences support for good governance. We investigate this using data from Afrobarometer Round 9 surveys conducted in 39 African countries between late 2021 and mid-2023. Our results show the significant role of education in shaping attitudes: Both greater access to education and country-level measures of higher educational attainment are associated with increased support for good governance. Finally, we highlight the opportunities that arise from this relationship
Topic:
Education, Governance, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

2878. Under-utilised Plants as Future Food – Transforming Food Systems to Enhance Food Security

Author:
Paul Teng
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Under-utilised plants have great potential to be the “future food” that transforms food systems to make them more resilient to climate change and supply chain disruptions. What would it take to mainstream them?
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Supply Chains, and Food Systems
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and Global Focus

2879. Transnational Crime in Cambodia and Indonesia: Strengthening Regional and National Responses

Author:
Jeselyn and Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Transnational crime networks in Cambodia and Indonesia have been responsible for heinous cybercrime, including illegal online gambling and scams. These networks target vulnerable populations and undermine human security. Addressing these challenges requires stronger law enforcement cooperation, regulatory reforms, and coordinated regional and national strategies to dismantle the criminal networks.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Regulation, Gambling, International Crime, Human Security, and Transnational Policing
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

2880. Biosecurity in the Age of AI: Risks and Opportunities

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano and Jeselyn
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Biosecurity has become more complex with the emergence of artificial intelligence-powered biotechnologies. The biotechnology-AI nexus can potentially strengthen biosecurity but amplify biological risks if misused. There is an urgent need for integrated governance frameworks to manage the dual-use nature of AI-powered biotechnology tools and regional cooperation through ASEAN to future-proof biosecurity governance in Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Biosecurity, Governance, Risk, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia