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2921. American Public Attitudes on U.S. Foreign Policy in Northeast Asia and on the Korean Peninsula, 2025

Author:
Je Heon (James) Kim
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This year’s KEI/YouGov survey comes at a moment of profound uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy. The Donald Trump administration has unsettled established trade arrangements, raised questions about the durability of U.S. alliance commitments, and injected unpredictability into U.S. engagement with long-standing partners like South Korea. Against this backdrop, American public opinion provides a clearer sense of continuity. The survey reveals enduring support for South Korea as a partner, stable recognition of the alliance’s value, and consistent preference for more open trade, investment, and cultural exchange, even as geopolitical turbulence and partisan divides complicate policymaking. Yet there are signs that American public opinion may be undergoing a transition in how Americans view other countries suggesting possible shifts in global alignments. Finally, within this evolving perception, the type of state appears to matter: Americans tend to weigh national security, trade, and investment differently depending on whether a country is viewed as an ally, partner, competitor, or adversary.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, Northeast Asia, and United States of America

2922. Is inequality always unfair? Experimental evidence on preferences for redistribution in Mozambique and Viet Nam

Author:
Ines A. Ferreira, Rachel M. Gisselquist, and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Knowledge of the factors driving people’s views on redistribution in the Global South remains limited. While these societies occupy top positions in inequality rankings, redistribution levels tend to be lower. We combine survey and experimental data from Mozambique and Viet Nam to test whether redistributive preferences vary depending on the source of inequality, focusing on two channels, fairness views and communication. First, we confirm the finding that inequality resulting from differences in merit is more accepted than inequality due to luck or factors outside of individual control. We also observe heterogeneity in fairness views. Second, we extend the analysis to consider whether allowing for communication between a receiver, who can suggest a distribution, and a dictator, who makes the final decision, affects redistribution preferences. We find that the relevance of the source of inequality remains. However, whether the expectation of the receiver is met by the dictator varies across samples and depends on the source of inequality. Overall, our results provide important insights into the universality of fairness views and point to the need for more analysis across contexts with different institutional and economic backgrounds.
Topic:
Inequality, Global Focus, Redistribution, and Fairness
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, Mozambique, and Viet Nam

2923. America’s Nuclear Red Line: Trust in Alliances, Not Proliferation

Author:
Yujin Son
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
On many foreign policy questions, American voters are sharply divided. But on nuclear weapons, a bipartisan consensus still holds. New polling by the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) and YouGov shows broad public opposition to letting allies such as South Korea develop nuclear weapons, even as risks from North Korea, Russia, and other countries mount. In short, U.S. voters demonstrate a durable belief that extended deterrence and U.S. alliances remain the most effective tools for safeguarding international security. The survey shows only 20 percent of Americans support South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons. Other long-standing U.S. allies fare only slightly better, with just 24 percent supporting nuclear development for Australia and Japan. In every case, opposition to allied nuclear proliferation far outweighs support. The data shows that most Americans support alliances, not additional bombs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, Tariffs, Trade, and Survey
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2924. Securing data in the AI supply chain

Author:
Justin Sherman
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Underpinning AI technologies is a complex supply chain—organizations, people, activities, information, and resources that enable AI research, development, deployment, and more. The AI supply chain includes human talent, compute, and institutional and individual stakeholders. This report focuses on another element of the AI supply chain: data. While a diversity of data types, structures, sources, and use cases exist in the AI supply chain, policymakers can easily fall into the trap of focusing on one AI data component at one moment (e.g., training data circa 2017), then switching focus to another AI data component next (e.g., model weights in current times), risking a lopsided policy that fails to take account of all the AI data components that are important for AI research and development (R&D). For example, overconfidence about which data element or attribute will most drive AI R&D can lead researchers and policymakers to skip past important, open questions (e.g., what factors might matter, in what combinations, and to what end), wrongly treating them as resolved. Put simply, a “one-size-fits-all” approach to AI-related data runs the risk of creating a regulatory, technological, or governance framework that overfocuses on one element of the data in the AI supply chain while leaving other critical parts and questions unaddressed. Managing the risks to the data components of the AI supply chain—from errors to data leakage to intentional model exploitation and theft—will require a set of different, tailored approaches aimed at achieving a comprehensive reduction in risk. As conceptualized in this report, the data in the AI supply chain includes the data describing an AI model’s properties and behavior, as well as the data associated with building and using a model. It also includes AI models themselves and the different digital systems that facilitate the movement of data into and out of models. The report, therefore, spells out a framework to visualize the seven data components in the AI supply chain: training data, testing data, models (themselves), model architectures, model weights, Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), and Software Development Kits (SDKs). It then uses the framework to map data components of the AI supply chain to three different ways that policymakers, technologists, and other stakeholders can potentially think about data risk: data at rest vs. in motion vs. in processing (focus on a data component within the supply chain and its current state); threat actor risk (focus on threat actors and risks to a data component within the supply chain); and supply chain due diligence and risk management (focus on a data component supplier or source within the supply chain and related actors). In doing so, it finds that many risks to AI-related data are risks to data writ large that existing best practices could mitigate. These include National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and International Organization for Standardization (ISO) specified data access controls, continuous monitoring systems, and robust encryption; the risks at hand in these cases do not require reinventing the wheel. Simultaneously, this report also finds that some security risks to AI data components do not map well to existing security best practices that would adequately mitigate the risk or even apply at all. At least two stand out immediately: bad actors’ attempts to poison AI training data require data filtering mechanisms not well captured by existing measures, and which access controls or encryption would not appropriately mitigate; and emerging, malicious efforts to insert so-called neural backdoors into the behavior of neural networks require new security protections, too, beyond the realm of traditional IT data security. On top of implementing these two categories of mitigations, this report emphasizes that organizations can leverage “know your supplier” best practices to ensure all other entities in their AI supply chains have security best practices for both non-AI-specific and AI-specific data risks.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2925. Exploring the global digital ID landscape

Author:
Coley Felt and Will LaRivee
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In an increasingly digital world, digital identity systems represent a fundamental transformation in how personal information is authenticated and managed, shifting from traditional physical identification methods to electronic credentials that enable access to digital services across government and private-sector platforms. These systems utilize authenticated credentials that verify individual qualifications and personal information to establish trusted digital documentation, spanning use cases from health certificates to mobile identification for travel security and banking verification. The worldwide adoption of digital identity systems varies significantly across regions and implementation approaches. Estonia’s comprehensive e-ID system, mandatory for all residents, demonstrates transformative societal impact by connecting organizations through distributed databases and blockchain technology. India’s Aadhaar program serves a massive population, proving that large-scale digital identity systems can operate in developing countries while bringing previously undocumented populations into formal economic systems, albeit not without criticism. The European Union’s eIDAS framework mandates that all member states offer digital identity wallets to citizens and businesses, creating interoperability across member states. The African Union has faced infrastructure and data protection challenges, while the United States remains fragmented with individual states implementing mobile driver’s licenses without federal coordination. Digital identity systems offer a breadth of benefits including enhanced convenience, improved access for underserved populations, stronger privacy protections through data minimization principles, and significant cost savings for organizations. These systems hold tremendous potential to transform the delivery of government services and industry interactions, though there are potential risks and limitations to be considered.
Topic:
Human Rights, Science and Technology, European Union, Innovation, Digital Policy, and Digital ID
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

2926. Addressing China’s military expansion in West Africa and beyond

Author:
Tressa Guenov
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The next National Defense Strategy (NDS) is being drafted at a critical moment when the United States risks permanently ceding strategic influence to China in Africa—especially West Africa—without a reimagined approach to the continent. With lifesaving foreign assistance drastically reduced due to the current administration’s budget cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and State Department programs, along with uncertain economic effects from tariffs, the United States has voluntarily weakened its diplomatic and economic tools to influence and support Africa. This reality gives additional weight to the importance of defense diplomacy and military cooperation as critical means by which the United States can exercise strategic influence in the region. While the US administration may be looking to narrow the United States’ role on the continent, Africa is too vast, important, and complex to attempt bilateral defense diplomacy, military-to-military relations, and counterterrorism efforts on the cheap, by proxy, or from afar. Key issues for the Department of Defense (DoD) include acknowledging the looming strategic dilemma posed by China’s increased influence in Africa; developing a cohesive and responsive strategy to counter that influence; managing bilateral defense relationships; and addressing other regional priorities such as Russia’s growing influence and counterterrorism issues, which also have inextricable connections to China. The new NDS needs to lay a foundation to address these challenges. The alternative is over-regionalization of the China challenge to the Indo-Pacific, which could impose short-sighted limitations that will affect the US role in Africa for years to come.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

2927. Chinese fishing in West Africa: Responding to the environmental and social impacts

Author:
Ebimboere Seiyafa, Awa Niang Fall, Ellis Adjei Adams, Kadidia Kane, Isa Elegbebe Olalekan, Kodjo N'Souvi, and Salamatu Joana Tannor
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Chinese companies—including both state-backed firms and private actors—have rapidly expanded into West Africa’s fishing sector, often operating illegally in prohibited coastal waters. Chinese vessels employ bottom trawling and other destructive methods, which—combined with limited oversight and poor enforcement of national and transboundary laws—have caused declining fish stocks, weakened local fishery economies, and deteriorated coastal water quality. This brief examines the ecological and social risks posed by Chinese fishing in West Africa and offers policy recommendations to strengthen legal protections and enhance regional cooperation to safeguard the region’s fisheries and water systems.
Topic:
Climate Change, Corruption, Environment, Politics, Fishing, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and West Africa

2928. Two US policy options for Venezuela: Shaping reform vs. ‘maximum pressure’ toward regime collapse

Author:
Venezuela Solutions Group
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The first Trump administration drafted a framework for encouraging a democratic transition in Venezuela; with a few updates, it represents one policy path the second Trump administration could take. Nicolas Maduro’s recent promotion of a longtime rival may be a sign of how few friends he has left, raising the possibility that he may be more susceptible to the second option: a “maximum pressure” campaign. Whether Washington opts for incentives or a hard line, the goal should be to keep presenting dilemmas that make a democratic transition more appealing than the status quo.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Oil, Politics, Sanctions, Reform, Geopolitics, Energy, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

2929. How the US and Europe can deter and respond to Russia’s chemical, biological, and nuclear threats

Author:
Philippe Dickinson, Ryan Arick, and Natasha Lander Finch
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report presents the findings and recommendations of the Atlantic Council project, Sustaining Allied Responses to the Threat of Russian Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Escalation. The objective of the project was to analyze the prospects for Russian use of chemical or biological weapons specifically in Europe over the next five to ten years; identify how the United States and its European allies and partners could deter and prevent Russian use of these weapons in Europe; and, should deterrence fail, assess response options.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, Conflict, Crisis Management, Deterrence, Biological Weapons, Nuclear Weapons, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America

2930. Responsible stewardship models can transform Africa’s mineral wealth into prosperity

Author:
Mamadou Fall Kane
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As the global race for minerals critical to green energy tech heats up, African nations should manage their mineral revenues with sovereign wealth funds applying best practices from funds like Norway’s and Saudi Arabia’s. Well-structured, credible sovereign wealth funds would lower risk, attract liquid capital markets, and facilitate strategic alliances for African nations. By aligning resource wealth management with domestic industrial policy, African countries can move beyond extraction and play a greater role in global supply chains.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, Economic Inclusion, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa

2931. Homeland defense in an era of new strategic threats

Author:
Clementine G. Starling-Daniels and Amy Cowley
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Threats to the US homeland have fundamentally changed from two decades ago. In the years following 9/11, the most pressing dangers came from terrorist groups intent on carrying out attacks on US soil. Today’s threat landscape is broader, more complex, and more difficult to predict. Peer-state competitors, transnational criminal organizations, and non-state actors now possess the means to target the US homeland through a range of kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities—including long-range missiles, cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation, and malign foreign influence. Responding to these evolving threats—designed to disrupt critical infrastructure, weaken public trust, and undermine the ability of the United States to project power abroad— requires a comprehensive approach to homeland defense that extends beyond border security. But how should the United States chart this new course, and what must it entail? The forthcoming National Defense Strategy (NDS), published by the Department of Defense (DoD), offers a critical opportunity to lay the groundwork for the next step in strengthening homeland defense. Meeting this challenge requires a focus not only on large-scale air and missile defense and border security but also on the protection of critical defense systems—such as space infrastructure—from cyberattacks and coercive economic activities. The success of these efforts may well determine whether the United States can stay one step ahead of those seeking to do it harm.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2932. The UAE’s Foreign Policy Anchors and Their Influence on Israel and the Region

Author:
Moran Zaga
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This policy paper explores the fast-moving expansion of the UAE’s influence in the Middle East through physical control of territories and assets beyond its borders, analysing the implications for Israel, in particular, and for the regional balance of power as a whole. The paper begins by outlining a conceptual policy framework of so-called “anchors” and “grips” with unique characteristics. It then presents a focused empirical review of the infrastructure, assets, territories and other types of physical property the UAE has acquired to implement its policy in four key arenas: Egypt, Jordan, Israel and the Gaza Strip. The paper then analyzes the regional implications of this process and its specific effects on Israel including its relations with the Palestinians and concludes by proposing guiding principles to address this trend. Scholars and decision makers will find the paper relevant to political and strategic planning for Israel’s regional engagement, particularly concerning Jordan, Egypt, and the Gaza Strip. The importance of the process the paper describes lies in the scope and speed with which this transformative phenomenon is spreading and changing the regional dynamics. This shift disrupts the traditional division between bilateral and regional relations, necessitating a reassessment of how Israel manages its relationships – both with the UAE as an investor and with the neighbouring countries in which it chooses to invest.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Investment, Abraham Accords, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

2933. Building Networks in the Shadows of War: Mapping Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Eitan Ishai
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
In September 2023, Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies – and the U.S. Department of State launched a joint project to create a civil-society network of regional thinkers and policy experts. The goal was to foster strategic dialogue, cooperation, and deeper normalization between Israel and its neighbors. However, just two weeks later, the Hamas attack of October 7th and the ensuing war reshaped the regional landscape. This report reflects on the project’s initial challenges, the adaptations made in response to the conflict, and the surprising emergence of real connections and public Israeli-Arab dialogue despite the turmoil.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

2934. For the US and the free world, security demands a resilience-first approach

Author:
Elizabeth Sizeland
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report is the foundational document of the Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative (AANSRI) and outlines a bold vision to embed resilience as a core pillar of US and allied security. As crises compound, the initiative calls for investing across individual, institutional, and international levels of resilience to withstand, adapt, and thrive amid disruption.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Crisis Management, Resilience, Non-Traditional Threats, and Security Partnerships
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2935. Private industry should step up to protect the global maritime order

Author:
Elisabeth Braw
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Safe oceans are indispensable for the functioning of modern economies. Ocean safety is under severe strain, like the rest of the rules-based international order, not least because major nations actively undermine it. The maritime industry is directly affected by the deterioration of the maritime order—as demonstrated, for example, by the continued growth of the shadow fleet—and should step up to protect it.
Topic:
Economy, Rule of Law, Norms, Private Sector, Industry, and Maritime Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2936. 100 Leaders in Europe’s Economies: Benchmarking Investment, Innovation and Impact in Europe

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Andrea Dugo, Dyuti Pandya, and Elena Sisto
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Europe’s competitiveness is built on openness, interdependence, and global embeddedness. Its prosperity depends not on how many firms it “owns”, but on how many choose Europe as a place to invest, innovate, and employ. Both European- and non-European-headquartered multinationals generate vast value added, capital investment, and technological spillovers within Europe – forming the backbone of its industrial renewal, productivity growth, and innovation capacity. Yet the current debate on competitiveness too often turns inward, focusing on the nationality of companies rather than their contribution to Europe’s economy. This framing is outdated and counterproductive. Persisting with it risks depriving Europeans of future economic and technological opportunities, as it diverts political attention from the true drivers of competitiveness: investment, innovation, and integration. If Europe continues to measure success by the passport of a company rather than its productive footprint, it will erode its attractiveness to global investors and talent. The result would be slower technological diffusion, weaker industrial renewal, and fewer high-quality jobs. In an economy where knowledge, data, and capital move seamlessly across borders, a defensive stance will not protect European interests – it will isolate them. To remain a global hub for innovation and advanced production, Europe must replace a politics of ownership with a politics of enablement – one that empowers firms, workers, and innovators to invest and grow within Europe, irrespective of headquarters location. A competitive Europe must remain open, predictable, and globally connected, strengthening both the integrity of its Single Market and its engagement through trade, investment, and multilateral partnerships. Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are the cornerstone of Europe’s competitiveness and technological dynamism. MNEs are consistently the most productive segment of Europe’s economy, driving efficiency gains, technological diffusion, and wage growth that smaller enterprises alone cannot sustain. Although they represent only around 1 per cent of all firms across major European economies, their contribution to output, trade, and employment is disproportionate. Around 151,000 MNE groups operate within the EU and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), employing over 49 million people – roughly 29 per cent of the total business-economy workforce. The majority are European-controlled (73 per cent) and account for 83 per cent of MNE employment, while a small number of very large firms – just 5 per cent with more than 1,000 employees – provide over 80 per cent of all MNE jobs. These firms form the backbone of Europe’s production networks and are the main channels of technology transfer, innovation diffusion, and cross-border investment. This study provides new evidence to inform Europe’s political debate. It analyses 100 of the world’s largest and most research-intensive multinational enterprises with substantial operational footprints in Europe. The sample spans technology, pharmaceuticals, automotive, retail, energy, and manufacturing – comprising 42 European- and 58 non-European-headquartered firms that together generate EUR 10.4 trillion in global revenue and EUR 822 billion in annual capital investment. Their combined presence demonstrates Europe’s enduring appeal as a location to invest, produce, and innovate, as well as its reliance on both domestic and international industrial leaders to sustain competitiveness. Although data gaps remain due to non-standardised corporate disclosures, the findings provide a robust, transparent, and replicable picture of how MNEs shape Europe’s economic fabric – reinforcing its integration into global value chains and its ability to attract frontier industries and talent.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Investment, Institutions, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Europe

2937. The Services Revolution: Industrial Policy for a Modern Economy

Author:
Andrea Dugo, Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, and Erik van der Marel
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
A ”manufacturing-first” attitude has taken hold in the European economic policy discussion. New strategies and industrial policies are designed with the ambition of boosting development and output in traditional industrial sectors. These policies often build on the assumption that industrial development and jobs are “better” than new growth and employment in the services sector – that industry is a stronger source for innovation and higher productivity growth. This view is outdated. It is also misguided and will make Europe less competitive. A growing services sector is featured in all economies that that have matured and expanded prosperity. Over time, the services sector has grown and professionalized – and is increasingly a sector of innovation and growth in productivity. Technological change has provided new opportunities for services to fuel the entire economy with business dynamism and, of course, to improve the performance of industrial companies. Some of the most R&D intensive sectors in the economy are services: global R&D spending has certainly moved towards services. As a result, the services share of value added in modern economies is rapidly increasing. Equally important, the “manufacturing-first” attitude prevents Europe for pursuing reforms that are necessary for the EU services sector to develop. It has been pointed out in several high-level reports – including Mario Draghi’s report on The Future of European Competitiveness – that Europe trails the US in services sector performance. Because of high and restrictive regulations, innovative services sectors have grown a lot slower in the EU than in the US. Europe’s industrial performance is better than in the US: for instance, EU industrial sector R&D is higher than in the US, when measured as share of Gross Domestic Product. Europe’s big economic challenge is to boost the services sector. For Europe to close the gap with the US, it needs to release the competitive energy of the services sector and incentivize more R&D, innovation, and business dynamism in high value-added services sectors like ICT and scientific research. In the paper, we model a scenario in which the EU would be more like the US as far as the services sector is concerned. It would include a remarkable growth in R&D spending. For example, R&D spending on computer programming would rise from EUR 15 to 66 billion – and in services like scientific and research development it would boost R&D by eight times. If the services sector would be thriving more, the European economy would get a serious boost. Different scenarios for a better-performing services sector are modelled in this study. Using cautious assumptions for a new development of the services sector, we find that the EU could add another 280 billion EUR to its Gross Domestic Product over five years – which equals a 1.6 percent growth. There are several reasons why the European services sector trails the US. Digitalization and technological change are part of the explanation. Generally, US services companies have faced fewer regulations and restrictions when developing new technologies and services that fuse with “older” services and help industries to improve their performance. Boosting the European services sector requires more business and market dynamism – and a regulatory environment that primes service companies for faster growth.
Topic:
Globalization, Industrial Policy, Economy, Services, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

2938. The Trade Effects of AI Provisions in PTAs: Does Non-Binding Matter?

Author:
Elena Sisto and Erik van der Marel
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
This paper examines whether non-binding (“soft”) AI-related provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) move trade and how their effects compare with binding (“hard”) provisions. The motivation is straightforward: digital rules are spreading quickly, but legal enforceability is uneven. We ask whether non-binding instruments (standards work, data-innovation clauses, interoperability programmes) can deliver trade gains in AI-intensive sectors even without hard obligations. Drawing from TAPED AI-related provisions in PTAs, we construct a measure of AI-related depth, distinguishing binding from non-binding provisions. To identify where these rules should matter most, we interact agreement depth with a sectoral proxy for AI intensity based on firm adoption. We estimate a structural gravity model using PPML with exporter-year, importer-year, pair, and pair-trend fixed effects, and run extensive robustness checks including pooled sector interactions and leads/lags. Key results: Around 40% of AI-related provisions in PTAs are non-binding. Binding AI-related depth is associated with ~13% higher trade in AI-intensive sectors. Non-binding AI-related depth delivers nearly comparable gains (~12%). Binding provisions bite most on customs-duty/digital goods and data-protection items. Non-binding provisions are especially effective for cross-border data flows and new AI/data issues (interoperability, standards, data-innovation). Pooled sector tests confirm positive, significant effects when depth is interacted with AI intensity. Interpretation and implications: In fast-moving, regulation-heavy domains such as AI, credible soft-law cooperation can reduce coordination frictions and facilitate trade, often approaching the impact of binding rules. Policymakers can sequence: use structured non-binding tools to unlock near-term gains where consensus is still forming, while locking in binding disciplines where norms are mature. Policy directions: (i) deploy cooperation chapters, interoperability work programmes, and open-data initiatives to target data-flow frictions; (ii) consolidate binding disciplines on established areas (digital-goods duties, core data-protection principles) to amplify effects; and (iii) invest in standards and translational mechanisms that support firms in AI-intensive sectors. We thank Daniel Trefler for serving as a discussant at the OECD Conference on Trade in Services and for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank Hildegunn Nordås and Bernard Hoekman for comments. In addition, we would like to thank Lars Vandelaar for excellent research assistance.
Topic:
Globalization, Trade, Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2939. Global Digital Trade Takes Off: Is EU Digital Policy Keeping Pace?

Author:
Elena Sisto and Erik van der Marel
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Global digital trade is increasingly shifting toward faster-growing regions outside Europe, driving greater external demand for the EU’s digitally deliverable services. As digital supply chains continue to mature, they present additional opportunities for the EU to expand and strengthen its digital trade. However, recent evidence suggests that the EU’s regulatory environment may be limiting its potential gains. Since its introduction in 2018, the GDPR’s cross-border data transfer rules are estimated to have reduced the EU’s digital services trade, including exports, by up to 10–12 percent. To enhance its digital trade performance, the EU has several paths forward. First, Brussels should revise the GDPR’s cross-border safeguards while retaining provisions where data protection has a positive but limited impact on trade. Evidence indicates that the former constraints are hindering digital trade potential, whereas the latter are not. Second, the EU should expand its adequacy framework to include more trading partners, a step that could further increase digital services trade by up to 9 percent, with additional gains across the network of adequacy-recognised countries when the United States is included. Additionally, as the AI Act intersects with the GDPR, companies that use personal data in AI systems face dual compliance burdens. This highlights the need for a parallel adequacy framework for AI to enhance regulatory coherence and support AI- and data-related trade. Finally, the EU should broaden its Digital Partnership Agreements. Even non-binding cooperation on data, AI, competition, and standards within preferential trade agreements can increase AI-related trade by up to 9 percent, strengthening both digital innovation and competitiveness.
Topic:
Piracy, European Union, Trade, Artificial Intelligence, Industry, Data, Digital Policy, and Single Market
Political Geography:
Europe

2940. Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland

Author:
Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Global trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and later by firm-level insights and global value chain integration – Trade Policy 2.0. Both approaches shared a liberal, rules-based logic grounded in comparative advantage and multilateral cooperation. Today, that continuity has been disrupted. A new paradigm – Trade Policy 3.0 – is emerging, marked by resilience, strategic autonomy, and economic security as the guiding objectives of trade policymaking. Three major disruptive forces have driven this shift: the pandemic’s exposure of supply chain fragility and the resulting push for strategic autonomy; the revival of industrial policy amid geopolitical tensions and the weaponisation of trade; and the growing influence of technology, data, and digital governance on cross-border relations. Together, these forces have replaced the efficiency-oriented “win-win” logic of past decades with a precautionary and competitive zero-sum mindset. In Trade Policy 3.0, success is measured not by trade growth or GDP gains but by reduced dependencies and greater resilience. This policy brief outlines three plausible futures. An Immunity scenario sees the rules-based system adapt and absorb new priorities. A Sclerosis scenario leads to institutional stagnation and policy inertia. A Contagion scenario risks a breakdown of multilateral norms and widespread protectionism. Whether Trade Policy 3.0 becomes a stable new equilibrium or a transient phase will depend on how policymakers reconcile openness with security, and whether cooperation can once again anchor the global trading system.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus