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2861. The Long Shadow of the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights: Colorado's 2024-2025 Budget and Economy

Author:
Michael Berry
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In one of the most polarized legislatures in the United States, partisan and ideological divisions among Colorado lawmakers often overlap with differences in identity and experience. Although the chasm between Democrats and Republicans on salient social and economic issues is wide, bipartisan policymaking still occurs. Democratic successes in 2022 extended their streak to four consecutive election cycles of remaining even or gaining seats in both the Colorado House and Senate. Unified government with expanded majorities has allowed Democrats to advance their agenda through the state budget with relative ease, and seldom used parliamentary tactics helped bring about liberal policy change in contentious issue areas including gun control. In budgetary politics, the fiscal constraints of the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR) currently do more to impede the progressive agenda than dwindling opposition votes from minority party Republicans. Statewide ballot measures have also driven policy change, at times in conservative directions, on consequential tax and fiscal policy issues. Coloradans have demonstrated an openness to government reform in some areas, but less so when it comes to ballot measures affecting TABOR.
Topic:
Budget, Economy, Tax Systems, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Colorado, and United States of America

2862. New Mexico 2024: Swinging the Compass. Recalibrating Fiscal Policy to Plan for a Slower Economy

Author:
Kim Seckler
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In late February 2024, the New Mexico State Legislature closed the books on a relatively uneventful session. After successive years of record revenues and double-digit budget expansion, the legislature modestly reigned in spending increases to less than 7%. Legislators continued their recent trend of stashing some of the state’s massive surplus in newly created endowment funds, hoping to insulate the state from future economic downturns. The legislative action reflects a growing consensus that boom and bust budgeting does not provide for a stable, long-term financial future. Legislators still managed to approve a $10 billion dollar plus budget, set aside reserves upwards of 30%, and spend almost $1.4 billion in capital projects big and small. Though the 30-day session is short, lawmakers still found time to deal with some social issues (public safety, health care, education, and the environment) and some issues personal to the legislature. Though only 72 pieces of legislation passed, the legislature managed to reset the compass on New Mexico’s financial structure while tinkering with current social concerns.
Topic:
Budget, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and New Mexico

2863. Into the Unknown: The 2024 Washington State Legislative Session & Beyond

Author:
Michael Artime, Erin Richards, and Francis Benjamin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In this paper, we discuss the political and budgetary landscape of Washington State. With consistent Democratic leadership—in the governor’s mansion and with respect to legislative priorities—the state has been able to advance a more liberal policy agenda than states without Democratic majorities. In this session, the legislature voted to invest in the development of affordable housing, behavioral health initiatives, and policies designed to curb climate change. However, ballot initiatives in November might serve as a significant impediment to these policy pursuits. Voters will decide whether to keep the cap-and-trade climate policy, the capital gains tax, and the long-term care program for the state. The cap-and-trade policy, as well as the capital gains tax, serves as a means of revenue generation and the elimination of these resources would upend the budget in important ways moving forward.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Democratic Party, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
Washington, North America, and United States of America

2864. Should Newsom Stay or Should He LAO? California’s 2024-2025 Budget

Author:
Brian DiSarro and Wesley Hussey
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The FY 2024-25 budgeting cycle in California was far less chaotic than the previous year, when a record $100 billion budget surplus morphed into a widening deficit. This time, Democratic Gavin Newsom and the Democratic controlled legislature had to tackle that mounting deficit as the state’s economy stalled, specifically among the wealthiest Californians, who fund a large portion of the state’s government. Neither Newsom nor the two new Democratic legislative leaders had experienced a budget deficit in office, which made coordination additionally tricky. The state is in much better shape than previous deficits, however, with a large reserve and strong budget resilience among its leaders. One problem- the governor increasingly reports different budget numbers than the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Office (LAO), which assesses the administration’s budget for the legislature.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Democratic Party, State Legislature, and Gavin Newsom
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

2865. Two Factions Walk into a Budget Session

Author:
Jason McConnell and Robert Schuhmann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The 67th Wyoming Legislature’s 20-day budget session was convened Thursday, February 8, 2024, for the beginning of its work in Cheyenne. This year, outside of its typical budget work, over 360 bills were brought forward by both legislative committees and individual legislators. These bills ranged from property tax relief to health care. In the end, on Friday March 8th, the final biennial General Fund budget was close to $3.8 billion – up approximately $100 million from the previous biennium. Deep ideological divides within the state’s dominant Republican Party drove much debate and show no signs of abating before next year’s general session.
Topic:
Government, Budget, State Legislature, and Republican Party
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Wyoming

2866. How Are Minority Staffers Utilized? Evidence from the California State Assembly

Author:
Michelangelo Landgrave
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Legislative staffers are among legislators’ most valuable assets and their appointment by legislators is strategic. Past research has focused on how legislative staffer appointments help legislators meet policy or constituency service goals. In this article I advance the literature by theorizing how minority staffers are utilized. I hypothesize, and show using novel data from the California State Assembly, that state legislators disproportionally place Hispanic and Asian American Pacific Islander staffers in constituency service positions. This may be done as an effort to provide a form of surrogate descriptive representation. Concerningly, because minority staffers are more likely to be placed in constituency service positions, minority staffers are less likely to be placed in policy orientated positions where they might have the most influence over substantive policymaking. This leads to a situation where minority staffers are placed in visible constituency service appointments but continue to be underrepresented in key policy appointments.
Topic:
Government, Minorities, State Legislature, and Staffers
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

2867. Adapting to a changing climate

Author:
Edson Ntodwa, Rorisang Lekalake, and Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Scientists continue to issue urgent warnings about accelerating climate change, with each year bringing new evidence of its devastating impacts globally (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023a; NASA, 2024). Recent years have witnessed unprecedented extreme weather events across the African continent that underscore the immediacy of the climate crisis, from tropical cyclone Freddy and severe drought in Southern Africa to record-breaking heatwaves and catastrophic floods in the Sahel (Barnes et al., 2024; Pinto et al., 2024). Yet the global political landscape for climate action has become more challenging. Major greenhouse-gas emitters, including the United States, have retreated from climate commitments, threatening to undermine international climate agreements and domestic climate policies (Dolphin, 2025). At the same time, African leaders demand additional financial support to finance green-energy projects but are divided over how quickly their countries should transition to green energies (Chime, 2025; FSD Africa 2025). On one hand, Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa have made meaningful progress toward adopting renewable energy sources. On the other hand, countries with large oil and natural-gas reserves (e.g. Nigeria and Senegal) are more reluctant to commit to the green-energy transition and the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions (Kimeu, 2023; Climate Investment Funds, 2025).
Topic:
Climate Change, Public Opinion, Public Policy, Carbon Emissions, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa

2868. Who owns a bank account in Africa?

Author:
Suhaylah Peeraullee, Dominique Dryding, and Kamal Yakubu
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
During his inaugural speech as chairperson of the African Union (AU) for 2022–2023, President Macky Sall of Senegal called for the creation of a pan-African credit-rating agency, arguing that low sovereign ratings discourage investment, raise borrowing costs, and undermin Africa’s competitiveness in global markets (Wanjohi, 2022). Similarly, at the 35th AU Summit in February 2022, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana criticised international credit-rating agencies for their “continuing consequential stranglehold” over African economies, which constrains governments’ access to development finance and increases the cost of capital (African Peer Review Mechanism, 2022, p. 4). These interventions reflect more than episodic political frustration. They point to a broader contest over how African economies are assessed and valued within the global financial system. Ideas about risk and creditworthiness are shaped by historical experience, structural constraints, and unequal power relations, and they in turn influence policy agendas and institutional reform (Jackson, 2021). From this perspective, African leaders’ critiques of the global credit-rating architecture can be read as an effort to assert greater agency over how African economic potential is defined and priced.
Topic:
Economics, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:
Africa

2869. On a Roll, or Is It a Slide? Alaska’s Budgeting Process in 2024

Author:
Glenn Wright
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
As in 2023, Alaska’s politics seem to be benefitting from a more moderate and collegial policymaking environment and possibly even more sensible budgetary policy. In part, this seems due to Alaska’s adoption of a new election system which in 2022 generated a more moderate set of legislative coalitions than the previous several election cycles. These moderate coalitions may be short-lived, however, as an effort to repeal the new election system is underway. And even with our relatively moderate State House and State Senate coalitions, headwinds and controversies remain, especially issues around public education funding.
Topic:
Education, Budget, Elections, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Alaska, and United States of America

2870. From aspiration to action: Barriers to youth empowerment in Africa

Author:
Rorisang Lekalake, Sophie Sunderland, and Komi Amewunou
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Africa has the world’s youngest population, with more than 400 million people between the ages of 15 and 35 – a number projected to rise above 830 million by 2050. This sustained youth bulge will keep the continent demographically young for decades, bringing significant challenges as well as opportunities, especially in areas such as jobs, education, and entrepreneurship (African Union, 2025). In this context, Africa’s development trajectory increasingly depends on its ability to participate in the global knowledge economy, where human capital (education and skills) drives productivity, innovation, and competitive advantage (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa & Oxford Economics Africa, 2023). Access to quality education is therefore a critical pathway to employment that provides purpose, dignity, and personal fulfilment – in addition to material security – for the continent’s youth.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Employment, Youth, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Africa

2871. Let the poor breathe! Poverty and anti-government protests in Nigeria

Author:
Daniel Tuki and Hussaini Kwari
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Despite the rising incidence of poverty in Nigeria and the increasing frequency of anti-government protests driven by citizens’ inability to meet their basic food needs, there remains a notable gap in research exploring the link between poverty and protest participation in Nigeria. Drawing on the human needs theory and survey data from Afrobarometer, this study investigates how poverty – both at the individual and communal levels – relates to Nigerians’ willingness to participate in anti government protests. Individual-level poverty is assessed using an index capturing the frequency with which respondents and their household members lacked access to necessities such as food, water, cooking fuel, medicine, and income over the past year. Communal wealth is measured by the mean annual nighttime light intensity within a 30 km radius of respondents’ dwellings. Regression analysis reveals that higher scores on the Lived Poverty Index increase the likelihood of Nigerians having protested in the previous year. Higher poverty scores also increase people’s willingness to participate in future protests and reduce their likelihood of choosing not to protest. Likewise, greater nighttime light intensity decreases individuals’ likelihood of having been involved in past protests, reduces their willingness to participate in future protests, and increases their likelihood of opting not to protest. These results are robust across different operationalisations of protest and to the use of individual survey data covering 36 African countries.
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Reform, Economy, Protests, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2872. Determinants of institutional trust in sub-Saharan Africa: Does media exposure matter?

Author:
Nabilatou A. O. Bouraima, Mamadou Alpha Diallo, and Sylvain Hekponhoue
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
As the main channel for information about institutions and their performance, the media have the potential to influence citizens’ perceptions of them. In recent decades, the media environment has undergone significant change, making different types of information readily available. At the same time, trust in public institutions has declined, weakening democracy and raising concerns about the role of the media in the loss of institutional trust. We argue that in sub-Saharan Africa, where institutions are widely portrayed as underperforming, citizens’ exposure to the media can negatively affect their trust in those institutions. We explore the relationship between media exposure and institutional trust in developing countries using five rounds of Afrobarometer surveys in 35 sub Saharan African countries and secondary data from the World Development Indicators and the Quality of Governance database. Linear hierarchical regression and multilevel regression analyses at individual and country levels show a strong negative relationship between media exposure and institutional trust, though the effect varies across media types. Our findings point to strategies for strengthening institutional trust and legitimacy by improving the quality of governance and economic performance and stepping up the fight against corruption.
Topic:
Development, Media, Institutions, Trust, and Perception
Political Geography:
Africa

2873. Exposure to violent conflict and attitudes toward wife beating in Africa

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
There is a notable lack of research examining the relationship between exposure to violent conflict and attitudes toward wife beating in Africa. This study addresses that gap by analysing data from rounds 7 and 9 of the Afrobarometer surveys, covering 39 African countries (N=99,267). Exposure to violent conflict is measured by computing the number of conflict incidents within a 30 km radius of respondents’ dwellings. Attitudes toward wife beating are assessed based on survey responses to a question on whether it is ever justifiable for a man to beat his wife. Regression analysis reveals that higher exposure to violent conflict reduces the likelihood of supporting wife beating. This negative correlation persists when the data are disaggregated based on gender and models are estimated using the male and female subsamples. A possible explanation for this finding is that individuals who are exposed to violence are well aware of its devastating effects and hence are more likely to oppose wife beating. Furthermore, areas with high incidences of conflict may have ongoing community programmes focused on reducing violence, promoting peace, and encouraging reconciliation. In such regions, individuals may be more exposed to these initiatives, which could lead to stronger opposition to violent behaviour.
Topic:
Gender Based Violence, Conflict, Intimate Partner Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa

2874. The impact of terrorism on democratic support in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo and Anja Neundorf
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does chronic terrorism affect support for democracy in fragile states? While most research examines isolated attacks in stable democracies, little is known about persistent violence in insecure, weakly institutionalised contexts. This paper addresses that gap by analysing Africa, where terrorism is widespread and democratic transitions remain incomplete. Using Afrobarometer survey data matched with terrorism events, we employ an entropy balancing strategy within an unexpected event-during-survey (UESD) design to estimate causal effects. We find that terrorism consistently undermines democratic support – especially in countries with stronger liberal institutions and lower development. Younger and older citizens are particularly susceptible to attitudinal shifts. These findings highlight how terrorism’s political impact hinges not just on exposure, but also on broader structural vulnerabilities shaped by institutions, development, and demography. The study advances theories of authoritarian reflex and threat perception, offering new insights into sustaining democracy amid chronic insecurity.
Topic:
Security, Development, Terrorism, Democracy, Institutions, and Public Safety
Political Geography:
Africa

2875. Conflict exposure and health-care perceptions: Micro-level evidence from Africa

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Although considerable research has examined the impact of violent conflict on health outcomes in Africa – such as undernutrition, child mortality, and maternal mortality – a significant gap remains in understanding how it affects individuals’ perceptions of health-care services and the quality of their interactions with health-care staff during hospital visits. This study seeks to address that gap by analysing data from Round 9 of the Afrobarometer survey, conducted across 39 African countries between 2021 and 2023 (n=53,444). Regression analysis indicates that greater exposure to violent conflict is associated with a lower probability of individuals visiting a health-care facility in the past year, likely due to fear of victimisation, which suppresses health-seeking behaviour. Among the subset of respondents who did visit a health-care facility, further analysis shows that conflict exposure is linked to more negative evaluations of the care received. Specifically, it increases the likelihood of individuals reporting poor service quality, experiencing disrespect from health-care staff, and having to pay bribes to access needed care.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Bribery, Healthcare System, Malnutrition, Child Mortality, and Maternal Mortality
Political Geography:
Africa

2876. Who benefits from bank proximity? Insights on financial inclusion from Afrobarometer surveys in Ethiopia

Author:
Abreham Adera and Roberto Melis
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The Global Findex survey asks unbanked adults why they do not have a bank account, and many cite the physical distance to bank branches as a key barrier. Does bringing a bank closer encourage them to open an account? To address this question, we analyse data from rounds 8 and 9 of the Afrobarometer survey for Ethiopia. To estimate the causal effect of bank proximity on financial inclusion, we employ propensity score matching (PSM), which compares individuals with similar characteristics but differing access to nearby banks. Overall, we find that bank proximity significantly enhances financial inclusion, with individuals living near a bank being more likely to own an account. Additionally, we find that the effect of bank proximity on financial inclusion is heterogeneous by location and gender. Rural residents (regardless of gender) benefit more than urban residents. Gender differences are evident in urban areas, with women more likely than men to own a bank account. However, in rural areas, women and men benefit equally from bank proximity
Topic:
Governance, Finance, Institutions, Banking, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and East Africa

2877. Demanding more: Does education increase public backing for good governance in Africa?

Author:
Nnaemeka Ohamadike and Stuart Morrison
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This paper investigates how education shapes public attitudes toward transparent and accountable governance in Africa. Much of the research on governance and education has focused on Western contexts, leaving the African perspective underexplored. Afrobarometer surveys show that many Africans consistently support transparent and accountable governance, with growing education and awareness of anti-corruption efforts across the continent. Yet little is known about how education influences support for good governance. We investigate this using data from Afrobarometer Round 9 surveys conducted in 39 African countries between late 2021 and mid-2023. Our results show the significant role of education in shaping attitudes: Both greater access to education and country-level measures of higher educational attainment are associated with increased support for good governance. Finally, we highlight the opportunities that arise from this relationship
Topic:
Education, Governance, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

2878. Under-utilised Plants as Future Food – Transforming Food Systems to Enhance Food Security

Author:
Paul Teng
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Under-utilised plants have great potential to be the “future food” that transforms food systems to make them more resilient to climate change and supply chain disruptions. What would it take to mainstream them?
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Supply Chains, and Food Systems
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and Global Focus

2879. Transnational Crime in Cambodia and Indonesia: Strengthening Regional and National Responses

Author:
Jeselyn and Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Transnational crime networks in Cambodia and Indonesia have been responsible for heinous cybercrime, including illegal online gambling and scams. These networks target vulnerable populations and undermine human security. Addressing these challenges requires stronger law enforcement cooperation, regulatory reforms, and coordinated regional and national strategies to dismantle the criminal networks.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Regulation, Gambling, International Crime, Human Security, and Transnational Policing
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

2880. Biosecurity in the Age of AI: Risks and Opportunities

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano and Jeselyn
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Biosecurity has become more complex with the emergence of artificial intelligence-powered biotechnologies. The biotechnology-AI nexus can potentially strengthen biosecurity but amplify biological risks if misused. There is an urgent need for integrated governance frameworks to manage the dual-use nature of AI-powered biotechnology tools and regional cooperation through ASEAN to future-proof biosecurity governance in Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Biosecurity, Governance, Risk, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia