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2801. Understanding, Deterring, and Preparing for a Great-Power War in the Twenty-First Century

Author:
Antulio J. Echevarria II, Larry P. Goodson, and Brennan Deveraux
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The US government and the US Army are unprepared for a great-power war. This integrated research project (IRP), sponsored by Vice Chief of Staff of the Army General James J. Mingus, is a critical first step in helping senior US Army leaders increase their knowledge of, and preparations for, deterring or fighting a great-power war in the twenty-first century. No one knows how long the US government and the US Army have to prepare for a future conflict. Consequently, the US Department of Defense faces difficult decisions as it balances preparing for a future war with maintaining readiness to address current challenges. The student research in this IRP only scratches the surface of what the US Department of Defense and the US Army should do to understand, deter, and prepare more effectively for the possibility of a great-power war in the twenty-first century. While the steps outlined here are preliminary, they are not tentative. Readers will find that each chapter offers concrete, actionable recommendations based on duly considered analysis. But more work lies ahead.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Deterrence, Gray Zone, Defense Industry, Emerging Technology, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2802. Maine’s Immigrant Communities: Diverse Origins, Characteristics, and Challenges

Author:
Valerie Lacarte and Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Maine’s immigrant population, though small, is distinct in its origins and characteristics compared to immigrants in other states and the nation at large. Due to a long history of movement across a shared border, Canadians have a notable presence in the state. At the same time, immigrants in Maine come from many parts of the world, and nearly half have lived in the United States for 20 years or more. With the state working-age population projected to shrink in the coming years, immigrants are poised to play an increasingly important role in the state workforce. And in fact, foreign-born workers already contribute to many key industries in Maine—from health care and manufacturing to agriculture and aquaculture. This report presents a profile of the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of Maine’s immigrants, based primarily on MPI analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. MPI researchers also interviewed staff of nine immigrant-serving organizations in Maine to better understand the types of services some immigrants need—some related to challenges shared with U.S.-born Mainers, while others are more specific to this population.
Topic:
Demographics, Employment, Immigrants, Integration, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Maine

2803. Global Humanitarian Assistance (GHA) report 2025

Author:
Mike Pearson, Fran Girling-Morris, and Suzanna Nelson-Pollard
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
The Global Humanitarian Assistance (GHA) report is the world-leading annual assessment of the state of international humanitarian financing. Produced by Development Initiatives for 25 years and now by the ALNAP Network, the GHA report provides a critical body of evidence to inform the sector about its financial size, how its finances are distributed, and what key trends require our focus if we want to protect and improve the funding response to crisis. Global humanitarian assistance is defined as the total international financial resources available for humanitarian action and comprises public funding from government donors alongside private funding from sources such as philanthropy and individual giving. The GHA Report 2025 sets out the scale and nature of disruption affecting humanitarian funding, providing a critical tool for navigating an unprecedented moment of political and economic change. Humanitarian action faces a “crisis of legitimacy, morale and funding”. Escalating geopolitical tensions, economic stagnation and rising debt mean the humanitarian responsibilities that once received wide support are being abandoned, as many countries prioritise security and competition over multilateralism and shared norms. Meanwhile, low- and middle-income countries seek equitable partnerships, rejecting outdated paternalistic models of aid, and crises fuelled by conflict, climate emergencies and economic instability continue unabated. Against this backdrop, the humanitarian sector has entered a period of high turmoil, with calls for a humanitarian reset and related reforms to respond to this moment with a new vision and approach.
Topic:
Finance, Donors, Philanthropy, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2804. Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies into Common Operating Picture and Course of Action Development

Author:
C. Anthony Pfaff and Christopher John Hickey
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies into Common Operating Picture and Course of Action Development explores the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to revolutionize military planning processes by enhancing situational awareness and expediting course of action development within the Joint planning process. The study delves into technical, organizational, and resource considerations that are critical for AI integration. In addition, the study highlights the importance of clean, structured data in training AI systems, addresses challenges in data collection across varying formats and classifications, and emphasizes the need for AI-friendly infrastructure. By automating processes like common operational picture generation and leveraging AI for course of action analysis, military planners can achieve greater efficiency and decision-making speed. Furthermore, this publication underscores the challenges of ethical implementation, resource sustainability, and organizational adaptation, including upskilling personnel and integrating commercial vendors. Case studies, such as the Maven Smart System and STORMBREAKER, demonstrate AI’s ability to enhance data fusion, improve battlefield awareness, and streamline operational planning. This research provides a robust framework for overcoming barriers to AI adoption, enabling the US military to harness AI technologies for enhanced planning, decision making, and operational success.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

2805. More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Pacific Requires Context

Author:
Brennan Deveraux and Joshua Arostegui
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
This monograph establishes a contextual baseline that serves as the framework for future comparisons of the US Army and the People’s Liberation Army Army. It examines differences in five key components of land warfare: the two nations’ landpower definitions, uses of land forces to build relationships, underlying warfare concepts, associated modernization efforts, and varying approaches to simulating land warfare in the region. In examining these components, the authors identify warfare intangibles that highlight analytical findings in a way that promotes future research. The existing scholarship comparing the two forces is often limited in scope, focusing on funding or comparing capabilities such as the number of specific weapons systems. This monograph differs from existing scholarship by providing a broad, in-depth comparison of critical landpower components. The analysis challenges long-held assumptions about US Army superiority and sets a foundation for future research. The authors rely heavily on primary sources and ample secondary documents translated directly from Chinese vernacular sources. This study’s conclusions challenge conventional thinking surrounding the People’s Liberation Army and will assist US military and policy practitioners in assessing the relative strengths and advantages the US military can grow or exploit.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Modernization, Simulation, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Warfare
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

2806. Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence

Author:
Antulio J. Echevarria II
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph discusses how NATO might better leverage risk to strengthen the alliance’s extended deterrence. Such leverage would prove especially useful because Kyiv is unlikely to be permitted to join NATO and the United States may reduce its presence in Europe. Western analysts have not given Russian deterrence enough credit for the alliance’s deterrence failure on February 24, 2022. The alliance did not act fecklessly, nor did it self-deter. Rather, NATO’s deterrence measures were calibrated more for hybrid/gray-zone attacks of the sort it saw in 2014, not for the large-scale combat operations the alliance witnessed in 2022, which involved a nuclear-armed adversary with stronger interests in Ukraine than NATO had. To be sure, the alliance’s leaders acted responsibly in managing the risk of escalation. But in so doing, they also facilitated Russian deterrence efforts, which succeeded in keeping Washington and Brussels from intervening in the war. The alliance thus demonstrated its need for a strategy that would increase the risks and costs of war for Russia without unduly raising NATO’s. In short, the alliance needs a proxy strategy of “waging war without going to war,” whereby NATO can provide its full political, economic, and military support to Ukraine without running the risk of putting alliance troops in harm’s way.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Risk, Deterrence, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

2807. Cognitive Defense: 2024 Homeland Defense Symposium

Author:
George M. Schwartz
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The US Army War College hosted the inaugural annual Homeland Defense Symposium from February 6 to 8, 2024, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Reestablishing the Sanctuary,” featured plenary presentations on defending critical infrastructure, contested deployment, and cognitive defense by experts from military, academic, and government organizations. As highlighted in the conference theme, attendees recognized the homeland does not provide the sanctuary it once did, and our society is already under attack. Using disinformation and social media means, our adversaries are engaged in cognitive warfare in the homeland, seeking to shape the attitudes and behaviors of citizens by negatively influencing and disrupting their cognitive processes, thus weakening our society’s political will and degrading national resilience. Using contemporary examples to show how disinformation and malinformation undermine trust in government institutions, the authors of these conference papers provide insights and offer solutions for the cognitive defense of the homeland. These papers from the first Homeland Defense Symposium inform policymakers and practitioners on what to expect as we compete internationally and how to prepare for a possible large-scale conflict.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Homeland Security, Resilience, Cognitive Warfare, and Cognitive Defense
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2808. Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:
US Army War College
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Maintaining strategic advantage demands professional discourse from across the force. The Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of Defense’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 15 sections organized into four enduring themes. This survey of regional, domestic, and institutional challenges represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 100 command-sponsored questions from 43 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of Defense. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question list offer unique insights into the vital matters impacting defense organizations and provide aspiring researchers with a necessary starting point.
Topic:
NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Natural Resources, Budget, Deterrence, Artificial Intelligence, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Defense Spending, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Strategic Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and Indo-Pacific

2809. Adapting the OECD criteria for the evaluation of humanitarian action

Author:
ALNAP
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
This guide updates the ALNAP guide Evaluating humanitarian action using the OECD DAC criteria, first published in 2006 to help evaluation professionals better understand and apply evaluation criteria in humanitarian settings (ALNAP, 2006). While this edition retains the same seven evaluation criteria, we have updated, expanded and clarified the definitions to reflect changes in evaluation practice, shifts in the humanitarian system and feedback from evaluation practitioners. The updates also incorporate revisions made by the Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD DAC) in 2019 (OECD, 2019, 2021). This guide provides practical and accessible support on how to use and interpret the OECD evaluation criteria in EHA. It complements the OECD guidance on using evaluation criteria, in recognition of the multitude of ways of ‘doing’ evaluations. Primarily, it is intended for evaluators of humanitarian action and those involved in commissioning, designing and managing EHA. It is also a key resource for training courses on EHA. And it is a reference for humanitarian evaluation users, from practitioners to policy-makers.
Topic:
Development, OECD, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2810. Explain: Artificial intelligence in the humanitarian sector

Author:
Linda Raftree and Quito Tsui
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
Hyped for its potential, generative AI promises faster analysis and better feedback in humanitarian response. But evidence of real impact is still thin. This Explain briefing explores what AI can - and can’t - do for the sector, unpacking risks like bias, privacy, and over-reliance, and outlines what humanitarians need to know before adopting it.
Topic:
Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, Bias, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2811. Decentralization, Assets and Privacy in the Twenty-First Digital Century

Author:
Andreas Veneris
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
This paper examines the evolving landscape of digital privacy, decentralization and digital assets in the twenty-first century. It explores the transformative impact of those technologies — driven by the exponential growth of semiconductors — in the past decades on the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things and blockchain today. The analysis highlights how these advancements challenge traditional regulatory frameworks and reshape social, economic and governance structures both domestically and internationally. It emphasizes the rise of centralized digital oligarchies and the implications of decentralized finance and central bank digital currencies on financial stability, privacy and monetary sovereignty. The brief also provides a geopolitical perspective on privacy, security and digital assets by emphasizing the strategic role of cryptography. It concludes with policy recommendations for Canada and reflects on the need for a “Digital Bretton Woods” to ensure financial stability and social welfare in the digital age.
Topic:
Privacy, Decentralization, Assets, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Canada, North America, and Global Focus

2812. AI and Language Data Flaring in Africa: Addressing the Low-Resource Challenge

Author:
Ife Adebara
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
African languages are under-represented in artificial intelligence (AI) systems due to limited language data, excluding millions from digital participation in their native languages. Factors such as multilingual complexity, foreign-language-dominant policies, weak institutional backing and lack of digital infrastructure contribute to the low-resource classification of African languages. “Language data flaring” — paralleling gas flaring — captures the systemic neglect and poor management of African language data leading to data undercollection, poor storage and limited use in AI. Addressing the gap requires policies that integrate African languages into national digital agendas, support documentation, fund projects and foster inclusive, collaborative AI development. Community-led documentation, open-source tools and growing recognition of linguistic diversity in AI offer promising paths forward.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Language, Artificial Intelligence, and Data Collection
Political Geography:
Africa

2813. How Can Stablecoins Work in a Tariff World?

Author:
Sharat Chandra
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
As a growing number of countries face rising tariffs in 2025, stablecoins may be the answer to geoeconomic fragmentation by providing solutions that enhance trade efficiency in response to protectionist policies and regional alliances. While the United States leverages stablecoins to reinforce global US dollar dominance, rising tariffs and de-dollarization trends are boosting demand for gold and other non-dollar-denominated and commodity-backed stablecoins. This trend is especially prominent among BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations that are wary of US monetary policy. Euro-backed stablecoins are also gaining strength and, together with the digital euro, may pose a threat to US dollar hegemony.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Stablecoins, and Financial Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

2814. AI Governance and the Geopolitics of Extraction

Author:
Samantha Bradshaw and Kate Munro
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The infrastructure of artificial intelligence (AI) depends on critical minerals and rare earth elements, making their supply chains a central factor in national security, economic stability, and global technology competition and governance. Overreliance on supply chains characterized by limited geographic diversification exposes AI commercial and defence industries to trade disruptions, cyber sabotage and strategic leverage. Diversifying supply chains requires international cooperation that accounts for sustainability, labour standards and transparency to balance national security with environmental and human security concerns.
Topic:
Human Rights, National Security, Governance, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2815. Intellectual Property Is Economic and National Security

Author:
David Durand and Kyle Briggs
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Canada’s economic and national security depends on how the country manages its intellectual assets and intellectual property (IP). Looking at the concepts of economic warfare and economic security through an IP lens, this paper examines how attacks against IP can exploit fragmented policy regimes, putting economic security and sovereignty at risk. The authors make five recommendations to address these concerns: create an open-source intelligence agency, protect the outputs of Canadian research, strengthen foreign investment controls, invest in sovereign cloud compute and storage, and coordinate federal legal frameworks.
Topic:
Economics, National Security, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

2816. Platform Governance and the Political Economy of Global AI Regulation

Author:
Sabhanaz Rashid Diya
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The Centre for International Governance Innovation convened a virtual workshop last year, bringing together global experts across policy, media, academia and civil society. Through this discussion, the workshop aimed to inform current and future discourse on global AI governance, identifying best practices and regulatory gaps. This paper builds on key takeaways from the discussion on the intertwined nature of platform and AI governance with an emphasis on the need to introduce a multilevel rights framework, unpack inequalities in the global AI supply chain and address the lack of regulatory capacity in the Global Majority.
Topic:
Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Supply Chains, Digital Platforms, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2817. The Quadripolar World: Understanding Twenty-First-Century Geopolitics

Author:
S. Yash Kalash
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The current geopolitical environment is defined by constantly changing dynamics among countries: long-standing partnerships are disintegrating while other alliances are strengthening. To better understand a world in flux, this special report presents the quadripolar geopolitical framework (QGF) in which four powers — the United States, China, India and Russia — serve as autonomous strategic poles. The framework seeks to capture the fluid, multidimensional nature of twenty-first-century geopolitics, where states simultaneously compete, cooperate and hedge across domains. Drawing on game theory, the QGF maps bilateral relationships across two axes: ideological alignment versus strategic autonomy, and systemic rivalry versus economic interdependence. Through case studies, the special report illustrates how contemporary power dynamics defy linear alliances and demand new interpretive tools.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Global Focus, and United States of America

2818. Bridging Histories: Lessons for the US Department of Defense from New Zealand Defence Forces’ Integration of Indigenous Cultures

Author:
Shane McNeil
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This article examines the potential lessons the United States Department of Defense (DoD) can learn from the New Zealand Defence Forces' (NZDF) successful integration of indigenous cultures into its military traditions. Through a comparative analysis, it explores the historical military engagements of both nations with their indigenous populations, highlighting the warrior cultures of Native Americans and Māori pre-colonization. The study delves into the NZDF's acknowledgment and incorporation of Māori history and traditions, showcasing the positive outcomes on organizational cohesion, cultural competence, and operational effectiveness. Conversely, it evaluates the current stance of the US DoD towards Native American heritage, identifying gaps and missed opportunities for cultural integration. The article argues that adopting indigenous warrior ideologies and identities could significantly benefit the US DoD by enhancing cultural sensitivity, diversity, and tactical innovation. It concludes with strategic recommendations for integrating indigenous histories and traditions into the US military framework, suggesting that such an approach could foster improved relations with indigenous communities and strengthen the defense sector's cultural and operational landscape.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Indigenous, and Native Americans
Political Geography:
North America, New Zealand, and United States of America

2819. Russia First: Putin’s Evolving Westphalian Conceptualization of State Sovereignty

Author:
Michael Launer and Marilyn Young
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
By far the most frequent concept that appears in the speeches and writings of Vladimir Putin, “sovereignty” has served varying rhetorical purposes over the years that he has been in office, focusing at times on his domestic audience and at times on Russia’s place in the world order. From the standpoint of international relations, he has placed primary emphasis on Russia’s resistance to external influences in a manner that closely resembles the Westphalian model. In this study we trace the development of four different conceptions of sovereignty as manifested in Putin’s rhetoric. These are: The classic definition of sovereignty: border security, independence, and unquestioned authority in one’s domestic affairs Cultural identity, creativity, national dignity, and strength of the citizenry and the nation Rejection of all international intervention in Russian affairs of state—a Westphalian conceptualization opposed to supranationalism and “bloc” identity ● Self-sufficiency economically and technologically
Topic:
International Relations, Sovereignty, Vladimir Putin, and Identity
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

2820. China's Strategic Manoeuvring in the Palestine-Israel Conflict: A Power Transition Theory

Author:
Sahibzada Muhammad Usman
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In a transitional global landscape, this paper investigates the China’s involvement in Middle Eastern political events pertaining to Israel and Palestine conflict. It is to evaluate China’s regional power using the Power Transition Theory to determine the degree of China’s influence, its goals and drawbacks with major global powers comparatively. By employing historiography approach and comparative analysis using qualitative research methods. The research delves into mixed method approach of primary and secondary sources. The hostile global political systems, regional alliances, and internal political difficulties in the Israel-Palestine conflict have damaged its power despite China’s diplomatic efforts and economic investments. These insights pave the research contends that China's Middle Eastern engagement is a complicated interaction between its capabilities and constraints shaped by the power dynamics and worldwide linkages.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Power, and Power Dynamics
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Palestine