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2801. Implementing Women, Peace and Security: Reflections on 25 Years

Author:
Rachel George, Carla Koppell, Jessica Smith, and Ava Kawamura
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
The adoption of policy instruments to support women in conflict has grown substantially since the creation of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda in 2000. • The expansion of WPS National Action Plans and increased inclusion of gender provisions in peace agreements and peacekeeping mandates have been a hallmark of efforts to institutionalize the Agenda in national and multilateral policy forums. • Peace provisions that acknowledge the specific impact of conflict on women and support their protection and inclusion in peace processes have grown overall, but their frequency has dipped substantially since a peak in 2013, from nearly half of peace agreements to just one in three in 2023. • National Action Plans, which have been adopted by at least 112 UN Member States and some multilateral institutions, have helped develop concrete policies and actions in a number of settings in support of WPS. But paramount is the imperative to effectively resource, implement, and update these instruments, and to make them more responsive to emerging threats and opportunities in the face of reduced funding for the WPS Agenda worldwide.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Women, Peace, and Security (WPS), and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2802. Abortion Views Across All 50 States: Key Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
In 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of its American Values Atlas, offering a detailed analysis of Americans’ views on the legality of abortion. The report also explores the relationship between religiosity and abortion laws across states.
Topic:
Religion, Law, Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, and Abortion
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2803. A Tale of Three Rights? Understanding How Republicans Are Changing under Trump

Author:
Thibault Muzergues
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump has reshaped the Republican Party – and more generally US conservatism – to an extent and in ways that were unthinkable in 2015, when he first emerged as a serious candidate for the presidential primaries. To understand that, we only have to get back to 2012, when the Republican consensus on issues like free trade and immigration was literally opposite to what it is now. Back then, the party supported free trade without reservations and recognised a need for (controlled) immigration. Meanwhile, the Bush family held significant sway, with Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and son and brother of the last two Republican presidents, considered a frontrunner for the 2016 presidential nomination. Fast forward to the present, and the Republican Party has undergone a dramatic shift under Trump’s influence. Today, being pro-free trade or pro-immigration is almost unthinkable for a Republican candidate in any primary. In the same way, the foreign-policy outlook of the party has drastically changed: dominated by hawks and neo-conservatives in the past, it is now much more influenced by isolationist and inward-looking imperialist elements (those have always existed within the party, but had been marginal in the past, in particular during the George W. Bush years in the early 2000s). Much like it previously did with the Bush family, the party now aligns more closely with Trump’s vision and family influence – exemplified by the personal loyalty tests that are now required for any would-be candidate for office to subscribe to in order to have the president’s support. This is not to say that everything has changed. The Republican Party remains socially conservative, advocating for example anti-abortion policies and low direct taxes. Seen from this angle, the litmus test of what makes (or does not make) one a conservative has not changed. However, Trump has reshaped the party’s priorities and values in significant ways, and will continue to do so. The Republican Party that emerged from the 2024 elections is distinct from the one that lost in 2020 or won the trifecta – presidency, Senate and House – in 2016. To outsiders, especially Europeans, Trumpism may appear as a monolithic structure, an image Trump has sometimes reinforced. However, the US president’s success (and popularity) lies in managing a coalition of diverse interests and ideologies. Trump’s coalition includes disparate groups like tech entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley looking forward to a bright future and former steel workers in Youngstown Ohio, looking back with nostalgia to a past that they would like to re-create. Some members of this coalition are organising and seek to apply an ideological lens to Trump’s instincts, in order to define the future of Trumpism beyond the current presidency. It is therefore extremely important to understand how the current Trumpian coalition functions – if we then want to understand where it is headed. Currently, the coalition ruling the party can be divided into three main groups: MAGA-World, the tech-libertarians, and the Country-Club Republicans.
Topic:
Donald Trump, Political Parties, Domestic Policy, and Republican Party
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2804. China’s De-dollarisation Initiatives: Strategies and Constraints

Author:
Zongyuan Zoe Liu
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A decade ago, renminbi internationalisation was a hot topic; today, it’s part of a broader, more strategic push toward de-dollarisation – accelerated by Western sanctions on Russia. While China’s efforts to globalise its currency began earlier, the risk of financial exclusion has intensified its urgency. Beijing’s approach is pragmatic and multi-pronged: it is deepening engagement with regional and non-Western partners developing renminbi-based infrastructure for cross-border payments, and leveraging its dominance in clean energy supply chains to promote renminbi pricing in key commodities. These strategies aim to enhance the renminbi’s role in trade and settlement while persistent structural factors – shallow capital markets and limited investor confidence – remain stumbling blocks for China’s currency becoming a global store of value. That may just be fine with Beijing, at least in the near to medium term. No evidence suggests China plans to dethrone the US dollar or replace the US dollar with the renminbi as the global dominant currency. China’s immediate goal is to insulate itself from financial sanctions in the dollar-based system. In a world where access to American banks and US dollar can be weaponised, China regards a functional alternative for cross-border settlement as a strategic necessity. With a trade-dependent economy and a leadership wary of volatility, China’s priority is currency stability, not supremacy.
Topic:
Political Economy, Governance, Currency, and Financial Services
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

2805. Austrian Hijab Ban Survey: What Muslim Women Think

Author:
Farid Hafez
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Austrian Hijab Ban Survey sheds light on how Muslim women and girls in Austria view the government’s proposed legislation banning the hijab in schools up to the 8th grade. Conducted shortly after the bill’s announcement on 10 September 2025, the survey collected responses from almost 1,000 Muslim women in Austria, offering a rare insight into the voices most directly affected. The findings are striking: 93% of respondents oppose the ban. The results further challenge claims that the hijab negatively impacts education or personal development, with overwhelming majorities disputing such arguments. Also, Muslim women who do not wear the hijab expressed strong opposition to the law. Politically, most respondents supported the Social Democrats (SPÖ), despite the party’s participation in the coalition pushing the ban, while many also favored smaller parties, but clearly rejected the two most vocal parties supporting the bill, the Conservatives (ÖVP) and the Liberals (NEOS), polling with only 1 percent each. Overall, the survey highlights both the broad rejection of the hijab ban among Muslim women and the gap between political rhetoric and the lived experiences of Austria’s Muslim community.
Topic:
Women, Discrimination, Legislation, Survey, Muslims, and Hijab
Political Geography:
Australia

2806. The Italian Job: Navigating between the UK, the EU and Trump

Author:
Luca Cinciripini
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Amid the transatlantic rift in the first months of the second Trump administration, Italy and the United Kingdom are seeking to position themselves as ‘transatlantic bridges’, drawing either on long-standing alliances or ideological affinities, to keep channels of dialogue open on shared challenges. However, this balancing act carries significant risks, particularly for Italy. The UK, no longer bound by European Union membership, enjoys greater autonomy in its dealings with the United States, although it risks undermining efforts to reset its relationship with the EU. Rome’s more ambiguous positioning between Washington and Brussels, by contrast, could weaken the EU’s unity at the negotiating table, eroding the coherence of its external action and contributing to internal fragmentation. Ultimately, bilateral initiatives by London and Rome may well serve to reinforce transatlantic cohesion – or to deepen its divisions and weaken the foundations of the EU.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Italy

2807. Can South Africa’s G20 Moment Consolidate Efforts on Just Mineral Supply Chains?

Author:
Margherita Bianchi
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
To assert greater agency over its vast resources and critical minerals (CRMs) – crucial for the world’s energy and digital transitions – African countries look at the first African-led G20 as a big opportunity before the US takes over the presidency next year. In the words of its president Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa looks for a “grand bargain” that promotes value addition to critical minerals for inclusive growth and development.[1] Despite current global turbulences, the country offers a solid foundation for sustaining multifaceted diplomatic relationships across (very) diverse international partners,[2] thus hopes for a fruitful G20 are high. Canada’s parallel G7 presidency can be of help, as the strengthening of critical mineral supply chains is on top of the agenda[3] and likely one of the few topics where some progress is possible.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Resources, G20, G7, Supply Chains, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2808. Europe’s Nuclear Alternatives: A Time of Reckoning Autori

Author:
Polina Sinovets and Adérito Vicente
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe faces an increasingly urgent need to reconsider its dependence on US extended nuclear deterrence, particularly in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the United States’ strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific. Europe’s potential to build credible deterrent capabilities of its own is limited to three alternatives: the strengthening of France’s force de frappe as a European pillar, the creation of an Anglo-French nuclear umbrella and the establishment of a European Multilateral Nuclear Force within NATO. The best course of action for Europe is to follow a balanced approach that enhances European autonomy while safeguarding transatlantic cohesion, with NATO establishing a structured dialogue on Europe’s nuclear future.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, France, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

2809. China-EU@50: Assessing the Ups and Downs of the Relationship

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In Europe there co-exist concurrent, and often contradictory, images of China, which explains why Sino-European economic relations continue to thrive notwithstanding the political coldness of the last years. While the EU’s leadership views Xi Jinping’s China as a ‘systemic rival’ and the main enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Beijing continues to be seen also as an opportunity by EU companies, universities and civil society groups. China’s dual image – that of a daunting challenge and a formidable opportunity – has characterised the Sino-European relationship since the mid-1970s.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

2810. The Tragic Irony of the E3’s Snapback Move on Iran

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
France, Germany and the UK have triggered the snapback mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, citing Tehran’s violations of the 2015 nuclear deal or JCPOA. Iran rejects their authority to do so, arguing that the Europeans themselves breached the JCPOA by adhering to US sanctions and all but supporting Israel’s June 2025 war. Lacking a diplomatic understanding by end September, Iran could leave the NPT, Israel resort to new strikes, and Russia and China refuse to recognise the sanctions, weakening the UNSC’s authority.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany

2811. Birdwatchers on social media: The mediatisation of intelligence organisations

Author:
Peter Schrijver, Lotte Nietzman, and Peter B.M.J. Pijpers
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
War has always affected the physical and cognitive dimensions of life; however, recent developments in Ukraine and Gaza have increased the emphasis on warfare making use of the virtual realm. Military actions now extend beyond traditional battlefields, significantly impacting virtual and cognitive dimensions through cyberspace and social media. This study examines how intelligence and security services in Ukraine, Israel, and the United Kingdom employ mediatisation—the process whereby mass media shapes public discourse—to achieve their objectives in modern warfare. Through comparative analysis of these three intelligence landscapes, the research explores how these organisations, despite being part of larger national security systems, pursue their own organisational interests. The study reveals that intelligence services use mediatisation for multiple purposes: engaging citizens, justifying operations, and projecting strength to domestic and international audiences. The results show a marked shift from secretive practices to open, public-facing communication strategies. The UK Defence Intelligence provides daily situational updates, the Israel Defence Forces Spokesperson’s Unit releases sensitive intelligence to shape narratives, and Ukrainian military intelligence publishes intercepted communications to undermine adversaries. This selective disclosure via social media represents a significant departure from conventional secrecy, reflecting the growing importance of information warfare. While this approach offers benefits in shaping narratives and countering adversaries, it poses risks to operational security. The study underscores the complex balance that intelligence agencies must strike between transparency and protecting sources and methods in the digital age, highlighting how communication serves as a tool for informing the public, justifying actions and discrediting adversaries.
Topic:
Intelligence, International Security, Transparency, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

2812. The new power model and United States national defence agility

Author:
Stephen Willis
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This scholarly article provides a comprehensive analysis of how Heimans and Timms’s (Heimans, J. and Timms, H. (2018) New power: How power works in our hyperconnected world—and how to make it work for you. New York, NY: Doubleday) principles of “new power” can be applied to enhance the agility and effectiveness of United States national defence strategies and policies. The analysis underscores the critical importance of fostering collective intelligence, adaptability, flexibility, transparency, and inclusion within the operations and decision-making processes of the US military, emphasising transparency and inclusion is crucial in promoting open source and open information exchange that involves service members and defence leaders at all levels in decision-making. This study presents compelling examples of how embracing new power dynamics can improve the agility of US national security efforts in terms of strategies and policies. Improved agility will potentially save lives and provide a competitive advantage over our adversaries. Additionally, the article highlights the significance of adaptability and flexibility in navigating the rapidly changing global landscape, underscoring the need for the US military to adapt to shifting power dynamics and embrace agility as a critical element in achieving success in the face of modern security challenges. Finally, this research delves into two critical areas: First, we explore a new power model for enhancing the agility of US national defence. Second, we discuss how the new power model can facilitate agile decisionmaking for US intelligence, specifically through the practice of open-source Intelligence. We conclude that making American national defence agile in its policies and strategies requires not only the application of new power principles and concepts, as Heimans and Timms (2018) understand them, but also the ability to apply new power in nuanced, incremental, and thoughtful ways that will allow for transformation of the defence and policy-making apparatus in a way that will be accepted and understood by policymakers and service members and leaders themselves.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Intelligence, International Security, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2813. Public intelligence as a strategic tool: The role of real-time intelligence disclosure in the Ukraine War

Author:
Alfred Marleku
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to analyse the role of public intelligence as a strategic tool in modern conflicts, focusing on its use during the Russo- Ukrainian war. It employs a qualitative research design, combining comparative case analysis and document analysis to examine the role of public intelligence as a strategic tool in the Ukraine War. The primary data sources include declassified intelligence reports, official government statements, media coverage, and academic literature on intelligence disclosure and strategic communication. The findings of this study indicate that public intelligence disclosure in the Ukraine War has been highly effective in countering Russian disinformation and strengthening diplomatic cohesion among Western allies. Unlike previous conflicts, intelligence transparency played a crucial role in shaping global narratives and mobilising international support. However, its deterrence value remains uncertain, as intelligence disclosures did not prevent Russia’s full-scale invasion. The findings of this paper highlight how intelligence dissemination has shifted from classified circles to a public tool of strategic statecraft. The Ukraine War marked a departure from traditional intelligence practices, as the United States and the United Kingdom used real-time declassification to counter Russian disinformation, unify allies, and shape global opinion. This shift underscores both opportunities and limitations, as intelligence transparency did not deter Russia’s invasion. Public intelligence disclosures proved effective in neutralising misinformation and influencing diplomatic responses. Intelligence disclosure also had diplomatic ramifications. While it helped rally allies, initial scepticism from Germany and France revealed lingering distrust due to past intelligence failures.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Intelligence, International Security, Transparency, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Disclosure
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2814. Experiences of Finnish Defence Forces personnel on equality related to remote work— Career development opportunities and remote work agreements

Author:
Tiina Kähkönen
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This study investigates equality issues related to remote work, career development, and remote work agreements within the Finnish Defence Forces. A total of 868 employees participated in the study. A quantitative approach was used, and t-tests (n = 868) were conducted to assess statistically significant differences in experiences of equality concerning personnel promotion opportunities, job rotation opportunities, and the ability to accept work regardless of location as well as suitable remote work agreements. The comparison groups were hybrid workers versus on-site workers, soldiers versus civilians, and men versus women. The study found that the personnel do not generally think that on-site workers have better promotion opportunities than hybrid workers. Remote work was seen as promoting equal job rotation opportunities among personnel. Remote workers agreed with this opinion more than on-site workers, and the difference in opinion between both groups was highly significant. The majority of respondents, particularly hybrid workers, agreed that equality would be better achieved through individual agreements on remote work. However, on-site women workers was the only group with the opinion that strictly limited remote workdays promoted equality better than individual agreements. Hybrid workers were less supportive of the current limits, and significant differences were found between them and on-site workers. This study highlights the need for more flexible, individualised remote work policies to enhance workplace equality. The findings can inform the development of management strategies and remote work practices in organisations. Future research could explore the international and organisational variation of these effects and provide deeper insights into employees’ perceptions of equality in remote work environments by integrating qualitative and quantitative methods.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Equality, Career, Remote Work, and Finnish Defence Forces
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

2815. Future threat landscapes: The impact on intelligence and security services

Author:
Mikael Weissmann
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article examines the evolving nature of antagonistic threats in the context of intelligence and security services, with a focus on small and medium-sized countries. It explores the impact of hybrid threats and non-linear warfare in an increasingly blurred security landscape between war and peace. The study aims to understand the emerging dynamics of the grey zone and the new challenges these evolving threats pose to intelligence and security services. The article adopts a qualitative methodology, drawing on global examples and including the strategic use of hybrid warfare by both state and non-state actors. In addition, the study examines technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), to assess their role in shaping modern threats. The article argues that modern antagonistic threats differ from traditional ones in both intensity and complexity. Hybrid threats operate across multiple domains, blending military and non-military tactics while exploiting societal vulnerabilities. The article highlights the growing importance of AI and ML in both offensive and defensive strategies as well as the challenges posed by rapid technological advancements beyond state control. The article concludes that intelligence and security services must adapt to these multi-dimensional threats by embracing flexible integrated strategies. Enhanced international collaboration, advanced technological integration, and a focus on resilience will be the key to countering hybrid threats. The findings underscore the need for intelligence services to operate beyond traditional boundaries to effectively manage the complexities of future security environments.
Topic:
National Security, International Security, Borders, Artificial Intelligence, Hybrid Threats, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2816. Humanitarian aspects of overcoming the social crisis caused by Russian military aggression in Ukraine

Author:
Aleksander Kuczabski
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper analyses the humanitarian aspects of social security restoration in Ukraine. The integral social security level indicator was developed for this study. The state of social welfare in Ukraine in the pre-war period was investigated according to the author’s methodology. The losses of the social sphere in Ukraine as a result of Russia’s military aggression were also assessed according to the author’s approach. Further, Ukraine’s need for emergency humanitarian aid was discussed. Finally, the mechanisms for ensuring the humanitarian component of social security during the war were analysed. The article’s hypothesis starts with the consideration that even though the war is not over yet, some lessons can be identified, and those lessons should be considered in response to social security issues in the conditions of war and in the future post-war social reconstruction of Ukraine. Analysis of open information sources enables claims that the situation in the field of social security is catastrophic in the Ukrainian society. This is due to the war-related damages caused to the residential stock and social infrastructure facilities, the environmental consequences of the damages, and the risk of starvation. This article launches a global discussion on the role and place of humanitarian aspects in the provision of social security in a state affected by armed aggression. The study promotes the idea of overcoming the humanitarian crisis jointly by the united international community. Therefore, this paper is vital for a better understanding of the actual level of social security and its prognostication in post-war Ukraine.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, War, Social Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2817. Hellenic airspace violations: An updating note

Author:
Vasileios Symeonidis
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This is a note to update an earlier published paper, which focused on forecasting Hellenic flight information region violations by Turkish aircraft. The update became necessary following certain geopolitical and economic developments in the Mediterranean, mainly the Athens Agreement. The least-squares best fit model for the 2009–2019 data set for Hellenic airspace violations was used, accompanied by additional ordinary least squares estimates and forecasts. We showed that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty described in the above-mentioned paper is now different in terms of the methods exercised; it is also cheaper. However, it is equally, if not more, effective. We interpret this shift by arguing that Turkey is a Political Realism follower, focusing on the importance of power, security, and national interest in shaping its actions, regardless of the ideological or ethical implications of such actions. This explains its preference for exerting pressure in the form of sea border violations and massive forced emigration from Turkey to the European Union via Greece. This note concludes that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty in the Aegean involving Hellenic airspace violations by Turkish aircraft has been modified. Turkey now prefers cheaper but equally effective methods, such as sea border violations and, in most cases, hybrid warfare tactics, like massive forced emigration.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Borders, Emigration, and Airspace
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

2818. Lethal empowerment and electronic crime: A focus on radio-frequency interference capabilities

Author:
Tegg Westbrook
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article focuses on the capabilities of criminals in using radiofrequency interference (RFI) devices to target systems that use the Global Positioning System (GPS). Surveying over a 22-year period during which GPS has been widely used by many industries, it seeks to understand how the electronic threat has evolved and changed. Focusing on the accessibility, usability, effectiveness, versatility, transportability, and concealability of RFI devices, and utilising a number of sources from engineering disciplines, hacker events, and media pieces, it argues that the more reliant we are on GPS, the more threat actors’ target choices and means, ends, and, indeed, motivations for targeting systems will expand, elevating the risks to GPS users. This article finds that arguably some of the most disagreeable actors have elevated from unsophisticated to semi-sophisticated in the space of 20 years, and can target systems cheaply, easily, and effectively. In the space of two decades, the combination of war, the expansion of digitalisation, the commercialisation of military systems, and the demand and supply that feeds technological innovations, have left us with an entirely different threat picture.
Topic:
Crime, Terrorism, Cybersecurity, GPS, and Radiofrequency Interference (RFI)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2819. China's Quiet Footprint: Mapping Chinese Influence on Local Politics and the Economic Landscape in Kosovo

Author:
Adelina Hasani
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
China’s strategy to exert influence in Kosovo primarily centers on economic engagement and disinformation campaigns. However, recently, China has also shown a tendency to organize meetings with local authorities and develop cooperation across various fields, including the economy, culture, and the arts. Despite not recognizing Kosovo’s independence and lacking formal diplomatic relations, China engages through indirect channels, particularly trade, with the tendency to create municipal partnerships and connections with local businesses. This approach aligns with the Tao Guang Yang Hui principle, China’s grand strategy emphasizing the pursuit of national interests while avoiding overt confrontation. In contrast to Russia’s aggressive approach, China quietly expands its influence through soft power mechanisms, minimizing political friction while steadily deepening its economic presence. This approach is rooted in the Tao Guang Yang Hui principle or China’s grand strategy that emphasizes maintaining a low profile while quietly pursuing national interests. Under this doctrine, China seeks incremental gains while avoiding actions that might draw suspicion, provoke resistance, or force political commitments that could undermine its domestic priorities. This stands in sharp contrast to Russia’s more overtly assertive and confrontational strategy. Although China and Russia are often grouped together as external or malign influences in Kosovo, their strategies and objectives differ significantly. Russia pursues a confrontational approach, seeking to maintain a network of allies and proxies across the Western Balkans to counterbalance Western and U.S. influence. Rather than engaging directly in Kosovo, Russia treats the country as a geopolitical flashpoint, advancing its interests through regional partnerships and political alignment. In contrast, China’s approach follows its Tao Guang Yang Hui grand strategy, emphasizing subtle, long-term influence. It utilizes tools such as foreign direct investment, trade, business partnerships, and municipal-level cooperation, depending on what is feasible. By bypassing national institutions and often engaging directly with local actors, China minimizes political pushback while gradually deepening its presence and influence. This paper examines the contrasting strategies of Russia and China in Kosovo, with a particular focus on China’s expanding role through economic cooperation and its growing engagement with local-level institutions. Drawing comparisons with China’s broader involvement across Western Balkan countries - where its presence is often more visible and influential, such as in Serbia - the analysis highlights how China adapts its global grand strategy to regional and local contexts. Although China does not maintain diplomatic relations with Kosovo, lacks investments, and Kosovo is not part of the Belt and Road Initiative’s 16+ framework, China remains active in trade cooperation and increasingly seeks partnerships at the local level, particularly in economic, cultural, and artistic fields. The paper explores how China builds relationships with municipalities and businesses, often operating discreetly, to expand its soft power and influence public perception, especially at the community level. China’s presence in the Western Balkans has increased steadily over the past decade, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, which serves as the primary vehicle for engaging countries in the region. Beyond economic motives, these investments are part of a broader geopolitical strategy that tends to shape global norms and institutions and secure support from smaller states such as those in the Western Balkans in international fora like the UN. This growing influence should also be seen in the context of rising global tensions, where a bifurcated world order, reminiscent of the Cold War, is taking shape. With the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, China has intensified efforts to challenge U.S. financial dominance. Western Balkans thus emerge not only as a strategic corridor into Europe but also as a critical region where China’s expanding influence may directly challenge the EU and broader Western presence. This research analyzes China’s soft influence in the Western Balkans through the lens of its grand strategy, with a particular focus on Kosovo. The analysis begins by exploring how China’s grand strategy is formulated at the global level and how it is adapted regionally, particularly in Kosovo, where China does not maintain diplomatic relations. A key objective is to shed light on China’s approach in the region, especially its efforts to build influence through business ties and local-level engagement. By unpacking China’s global strategy and examining its localized application, the study aims to inform the development of a clear, context-specific response by the government of Kosovo to mitigate China’s influence, particularly that which is pursued through non-transparent means.
Topic:
Grand Strategy, Disinformation, Foreign Influence, and Economic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, Kosovo, and Balkans

2820. Strengthening the role of Municipalies in Promotion of EU Rule of Law Values in Kosovo

Author:
Rozafa Ukimerja Çuni
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The European Union’s Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with Kosovo, establishes a contractual framework for aligning Kosovo’s legal and administrative systems with EU norms. Central to this alignment is the rule of law, encompassing legality, equality before the law, transparency, accountability, and respect for fundamental rights. While national institutions lead the integration process, municipalities play a critical role in promoting and implementing these values at the local level, where citizens experience governance directly. This research explores the extent to which municipalities in Kosovo contribute to advancing EU rule of law principles. It analyzes institutional frameworks, central oversight mechanisms towards municipalities, and municipal performance systems established, alongside municipal practices, challenges, and stakeholder perceptions. According to the 2024 first semi-annual report on the implementation of EU-related obligations at the local level1, published by the Ministry of Local Government Administration, municipalities have achieved approximately 53% fulfillment of their commitments under the European Agenda that fall within the scope of local governance. Specifically, they have implemented 52% of the planned activities related to political criteria, 36% in the area of economic criteria, and 69% of activities on European standards. Key findings indicate significant institutional progress. The legality of municipal acts, a core rule of law indicator, has improved, with the proportion of illegal acts dropping from approximately 30% in 2016 to about 1% following reforms and implementation of the Regulation on Administrative Review of Municipal Acts (GRK No.10/2019) and the new Law on Administrative Review of Municipal Acts2. The MLGA’s oversight function, combined with the Municipal Performance Grant (MPG) scheme co-financed by donors such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, and the EU, has embedded legal compliance and accountability into municipal performance assessments. Municipalities are increasingly motivated to improve transparency, accountability, and compliance due to tangible incentives tied to grant eligibility and public recognition. Performance-based competition among municipalities has fostered a positive culture of legality and institutional learning. Surveys of municipal officials indicate strong awareness, with 75% prioritizing the rule of law and 71% access to justice in daily operations. Key informant interviews validate this, highlighting the MPG’s, judicial reviews and monitoring system “extraordinary impact” on legal compliance. Additionally, while transparency mechanisms are improving, citizen participation and inclusivity, particularly in gender and youth engagement, remain imbalanced. Despite these achievements, challenges remain. Capacity gaps in municipal legal offices, political interference, and inconsistent coordination between central and local levels undermine the consistent application of the rule of law. Many municipal legal offices operate with limited capacity and depend on external support for complex legal reviews. Coordination between central and local institutions, especially on overlapping competencies such as property management, justice, and procurement, is often fragmented. The 2024 EU Kosovo Report highlights persistent challenges in the relationship between municipalities and central institutions, indicating ongoing issues with coordination and communication between these levels of government3. Furthermore, inter-ethnic relations, gender inclusion, and youth participation are not yet systematically integrated into local governance frameworks. Addressing these gaps is essential for Kosovo’s municipalities to fully embody and promote EU rule of law values. By advancing these reforms, municipalities will not only strengthen compliance with EU integration benchmarks but also deepen citizen trust, accountability, and democratic governance at the local level.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Rule of Law, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans