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2141. Reassessing the Kosovo-Serbia Normalization Dialogue: It is Time for a Reset?

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This paper questions the effectiveness of the ongoing EU-led dialogue in normalizing relations between Kosovo and Serbia, despite various agreements made since 2011 when the process started. This paper argues that the current process is leading towards a scenario where “no solution is a solution” could become the default stance of the international community, particularly within EU capitals. This is a result of Serbia playing the long game and Kosovo the waiting game. Such an outcome would potentially carry devastating consequences as it cements the status quo, risks regional stability, maintains Kosovo’s isolation, and deepens interethnic tensions within Kosovo.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Ethnicity, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

2142. Strengthening Protection Mechanisms of Gender Based Violence in Kosovo

Author:
Adelina Hasani and Vesa Kroçi
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Femicide and insufficiently addressed gender-based violence represent major security concerns in Kosovo, yet they have not been adequately prioritized as immediate issues by the full spectrum of state mechanisms. Activists in Kosovo have consistently demanded that gender-based violence be declared and treated a national emergency, a plea that state institutions have not taken into consideration. Within just five days in April 2024, two women in Kosovo were victims of femicide, murdered by their partners. Gender-based violence and femicide pose significant security threats to women. From January to March 2024, 698 cases of gender-based violence were reported to the police, compared to 2,638 cases reported throughout 2023. Despite the high number of reported cases, many cases remain unreported due to the complex socio-economic challenges’ women face across different regions of Kosovo. There are several reasons highlighting the inadequacies in addressing the prevention of gender-based violence. Recent research conducted by the Kosovo Centre for Security Studies elaborates on several problems concerning gender-based violence in Kosovo. There are some of them: Women’s trust in security and justice institutions is critical for reporting gender-based violence. However, the leniency of the judicial system towards perpetrators and the prolonged duration of domestic violence cases discourage women from seeking justice. There is a lack of sensitivity and expertise among law enforcement authorities, especially in rural areas, to handle genderbased violence cases effectively. The absence of property ownership among women is a significant barrier to their economic independence and security. Despite legal provisions for equal property rights, women often relinquish their inheritance, leaving them with limited resources and options when facing violence. This lack of financial autonomy leaves women in a troubling situation where they may feel compelled to return to their abusers. Many women withdraw their complaints of gender-based violence due to third-party interventions, often under family pressure. There is a tendency among family members and officials to blame women for reporting abuse, further discouraging them from seeking help. Women reporting domestic violence often endure double discrimination from institutions, society, and their families. There is limited information about rights and available support services for victims of gender based violence in Kosovo. The lack of awareness intensifies feelings of vulnerability and exacerbates the sense of helplessness when seeking solutions. There is also insufficient investment in support services for victims and consequences for perpetrators. Insufficient and unstable funding for shelters poses a significant challenge to supporting survivors of domestic violence. Without adequate resources, shelters struggle to maintain essential services and meet the increasing demand for their services. There is also a lack of sustainable institutional support for victims, leading some to return to their abusers. Addressing gender-based violence and femicide requires a holistic approach from all institutions involved in handling cases arising from diverse circumstances. In this analysis, we aim to examine the shortcomings in implementing protection orders for victims and the physical protection of shelters and the Centre for Social Work (CSW) from perpetrators.
Topic:
Security, Women, Gender Based Violence, Protection, and Femicide
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

2143. A discussion of Kosovo- NATO relations and prospects for greater cooperation

Author:
Leureta Lumi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Membership of Kosovo in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is regarded as a national interest across Kosovo’s political spectrum and receives substantial public support. According to the 2022 Security Barometer by the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS), an overwhelming 92 percent of all citizens in Kosovo are in favor of joining NATO. This support is even more pronounced among the Kosovo Albanians, where the approval rate soars to 99.5 percent. This is the only objective in Kosovo that enjoys this level of public backing. Kosovo’s Security Strategy 2022-2027 states ‘The irreplaceable aim of the Republic of Kosovo is NATO membership and integration as the mechanism that provides long-term strategic security’. NATO’s leading role in ending the 1999 war and averting a potential genocide in Kosovo is widely seen as a major reason behind the strong public support for the alliance. However, this sentiment has been reinforced by recent developments, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, intensifying Kosovo’s appreciation for NATO membership. The urgency for Kosovo to join NATO is further heightened by the unresolved bilateral disputes with Serbia and the increasingly adversarial positions of Serbian President Vucic towards, as shown by a recent statement from him, which implies that on Kosovo, Serbia should learn from Azerbaijan, adding that: “They waited 27 years for special geopolitical circumstances”. The Banjska terrorist attack in September 2023, which is believed to have been orchestrated with the support of Serbian security institutions and in cooperation with Russia, reinforces the perception that Serbia sees a military solution to the “Kosovo problem”. Although Kosovo benefits from NATO’s protection via the KFOR mission, NATO’s stance on Kosovo remains status-neutral, with no significant advancement in NATO-Kosovo political relations since 2016. This paper delves into these challenges and seeks to explore the obstacles Kosovo faces on its path to NATO membership. Accordingly, this paper includes an analysis of the current NATO-Kosovo relations, options for Kosovo to enhance these relations and overcome key challenges, including exploration of the Partnership for Peace and the Membership Action Plan (MAP), a review of NATO accession processes in Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia, and concluding remarks with recommendations.
Topic:
NATO, Public Opinion, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

2144. How external actors seek to influence the Western Balkans?

Author:
Harun Nuhanović
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The Western Balkans, a region with a complex history and significant geopolitical value, finds itself at the crossroads of influence from major external powers—Russia, China, and Turkey. Each of these countries extends its reach through various domains such as economics, culture, religion, politics, and security, exploiting both state and non-state mechanisms to cement their influence. This report delves into the strategies employed by these state actors, highlighting their individual and collective impacts on the strategic landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The findings reveal how these external influences pose both opportunities and significant risks, shaping the regional dynamics and the future integration of these states into larger international frameworks such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, and Western Balkans

2145. Addressing Zambia’s Water Security Challenges

Author:
Leleti Maluleke
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
This policy briefing outlines the scale of Zambia’s current water crisis and examines its impact on agriculture, the environment, and the economy. Based on this analysis, it recommends a multifaceted approach to improve water management and distribution. Key recommendations include enhancing governance frameworks, investing in infrastructure, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and addressing gender inequalities in water access.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Environment, Water, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

2146. Climate Change Act and the role of local government

Author:
Busisipho Siyobi
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
South Africa’s response to addressing climate change has come full circle with the passing of the Climate Change Act1 in July 2024. This breakthrough comes at a time when South Africa is warming by approximately 0.2°C per decade2 , contributing to climate impacts ranging from extreme heat and drought to sea level rise and flooding. The results of these extreme weather events have been devasting to livelihoods and, subsequently, socio-economic development, which have been worsening over the years. The Climate Change Act is a significant step, as it shows progression and commitment to advance South Africa’s climate resilience, and to see it through achieving a just energy transition. However, the success of the overall climate change response is only as strong as its implementation. This policy briefing will assess the Act and provide a roadmap on how it can be effectively operationalised to achieve its mandate.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Resilience, and Local Government
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2147. Improving water governance in South Africa to ensure a water-secure country

Author:
Leleti Maluleke
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
This policy briefing outlines the pressing water challenges facing South Africa and proposes recommendations to address them. Among these are increasing water insecurity, including severe droughts, inadequate water conservation measures, outdated infrastructure, and unequal access to water resources. We outline some of the existing policies and frameworks to address these challenges and provide recommendations for strengthening water governance in general. The briefing emphasises the need for immediate action to safeguard water security and ensure equitable access to clean water.
Topic:
Security, Water, Infrastructure, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2148. Inclusive biodiversity conservation and the unsustainability of ‘sustainable use’

Author:
Ross Harvey
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
The South African Government’s Reviewed National Biodiversity Economy Strategy (2024) continues to promote trophy hunting as a conservation tool. This policy briefing challenges this approach, arguing that trophy hunting, particularly of endangered species, should be removed from the national biodiversity strategy due to overstated economic benefits and high ecological costs. Instead, the briefing suggests exploring sustainable, non-consumptive alternatives to trophy hunting. Successful pilot programmes should be expanded, integrating local communities into ecotourism and conservation-enhancing agriculture. This strategy aims to join fragmented landscapes into larger, ecologically sustainable areas, providing sustainable livelihoods while conserving biodiversity. Moreover, the current focus on consumptive use, such as game ranching and trophy hunting, needs re-evaluation. This philosophy creates unrealistic revenue expectations and promotes fundamentally unsustainable practices. The briefing emphasises the need to prioritise ecological sustainability over consumptive use, aligning with the constitutional duty to protect the environment for future generations. These recommendations are based on the analysis that the economic value of trophy hunting is often inflated and that the opportunity costs are significant. Non-consumptive alternatives can better support both conservation and community livelihoods, ensuring a genuinely inclusive conservation strategy.
Topic:
Conservation, Sustainability, Hunting, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2149. Decarbonisation and Compliance: Assessing the impact of the Climate Change Act on South Africa’s extractives industry

Author:
Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
The Climate Change Act establishes a regulatory framework for decarbonisation in South Africa’s extractives sector, aligning with Paris Agreement commitments. Key provisions include sectorspecific emissions reduction targets, carbon budgets, and mandatory monitoring and reporting. While enforcement issues and resource limitations exist, companies must prioritise emissions tracking and internal carbon pricing. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) imperatives already incentivise companies in this direction. Investors increasingly direct capital towards companies that demonstrate effective emissions management. Successful adaptation strategies and alignment with national goals are essential for companies to enhance sustainability and attract investment. Collaboration among stakeholders is critical for effectively implementing the Climate Change Act.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Compliance, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2150. Collective Protection for Communities and Rights Defenders at Risk: Lessons from Grassroots Advocacy in Colombia

Author:
Mauricio Parra Bayona, Elizabeth Moreno Barco, and Jonathan Fox
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Rights defenders around the world face unrelenting violent reprisals for their work protecting marginalized communities and their territories. Some governments respond by committing to protect these citizens at risk—mainly with individualized, police-style safeguards. Colombia’s government has Latin America’s largest protection agency by far and has gone beyond its many individual measures to also promise collective protection to communities at risk. In Colombia, the Community Council of the San Juan River region (ACADESAN), defends the rights of its 72 Afro-Colombian communities in areas affected by armed conflict. It has worked to hold the government accountable for delivering on its legal and policy commitments to protect communities at risk by providing comprehensive, collective measures. This Accountability Note describes ACADESAN’s breakthrough advocacy campaign for collective protection. It shares insights relevant for efforts to protect rights defenders and communities that go beyond conventional measures. It is based on the story told in Spanish by Mauricio Parra Bayona, ACADESAN human rights advisor, in his Accountability Working Paper, and the prefaces to that paper by former ACADESAN representative Elizabeth Moreno Barco and Jonathan Fox of ARC. Parra reflects on how collective protection must further be adjusted to better serve other at-risk communities and organizations in Colombia.
Topic:
Accountability, Land Rights, Advocacy, and Protection
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

2151. After the Agreement: Implementing Remedy for Displacement in Northern Haiti

Author:
Scott Freeman, Lani Inverarity, and Megan Pearson
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
In January 2011, more than 400 families in northeast Haiti were evicted from their agricultural land to make way for the Caracol Industrial Park (CIP), a large industrial textile facility principally financed by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the US government. This Accountability Note chronicles the Haitian families’ remarkable path to pursuing remedy for their displacement. Against all odds, they organized, sought international support for their case, and, using the independent accountability mechanism (IAM) of the IDB, ultimately negotiated an agreement with the IDB and the Haitian government to restore their livelihoods. But their struggle did not end there. Much of the fight for remedy occurred after signing the agreement—a reality often under-acknowledged by accountability advocates. Support from local and international advocates has been critical to getting even partial implementation of the agreement. From the outset, the Haitian families’ chances of success were slim: few IAMs have the capacity or mandate to facilitate any remedy. Moreover, the Caracol case represents an extremely rare instance where a displaced community has successfully used an IAM to negotiate for replacement land. Still, for many families, delays in receiving remedy lasted for years, increasing suffering and exacerbating the economic and social losses that come with losing land. Monitoring and advocacy have been necessary for the six years following the signing of the agreement. Because of that, many of the families eventually received some compensation—including (for some) land. Although reaching an agreement to address harm is often the goal of an accountability mechanism process, this Note highlights the struggle that unfolds after the agreement is signed. Ensuring that remedy is actually delivered requires continual vigilance and advocacy. The Note provides key lessons for communities and advocates hoping to secure remedy through dispute resolution at IAMs: Lesson 1: A signed agreement for remedy is not the end of the process, but the beginning of another struggle. Lesson 2: Monitoring and continued advocacy are critical to getting remedy agreements implemented. Lesson 3: Remedy agreements must account for the possibility of challenges to implementation Even though Haiti presents a challenging political and economic environment in which to implement a remedy agreement, the lessons of this case are not unique to Haiti. As development banks increasingly operate in contexts of fragility and crisis, similar hurdles to remediation are likely to occur elsewhere.
Topic:
Displacement, Accountability, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

2152. A Generalised Commodity Theory of Exploitation

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This paper argues that the conceptual framework of Marx's Capital allows for the extraction of a commodity-based theory of capitalist exploitation that is distinct from the traditional labour-value based theory. The rationale for extracting such a theory is that it allows for an explanation of the current rise in global economic inequality in a way that shows this development to be entirely consistent with the fundamental laws of capitalism as it enters its globalised and financialised stage of development.
Topic:
Globalization, Capitalism, Commodities, Exploitation, and Financialized Capitalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2153. Tracking the Fortunes of Corporate Psychedelia

Author:
Sandy Hager
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
In recent years, new biotech companies have emerged hoping to cash in on a medical psychedelics market expected to be worth billions. This article examines the business models of two of the largest such companies. According to conventional wisdom, for-profit players are best positioned to deliver new cures for mental illness at scale because of their ability to tap capital markets. The analysis presented here challenges this story on two counts. First, it argues that profitability in the pharmaceutical business depends not on rapid scaling per se, but on controlling and restricting access to maintain pricing power. Second, it claims that the unruliness of psychedelics – manifested in the presence of cheap generics, murky intellectual property claims, and high costs of administration – raises serious questions about their commercial viability. The article then assesses the sector’s embrace of Johnson and Johnson’s patented form of esketamine, Spravato, as its prototype for commercialization. Spravato may provide a pathway for profitability, but patients must contend with high prices and a drug that provides only short-term relief and requires indefinite dosing. Rather than disrupt Big Pharma, corporate psychedelia replicates its main features, raising questions about its claims to tackle the mental health crisis.
Topic:
Business, Mental Health, Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, Psychedelics, and Medicalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2154. Asset Ownership, Rates of Return, and the U.S. Working Class

Author:
Leila Davis and Charalampos Konstantinidis
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In this paper, we analyze the intersection of asset market participation and inter-class wealth inequality in the United States by showing that working-class households earn lower rates of return on their assets than non-working-class households. We, first, operationalize an empirical definition of working-class status using the Survey of Consumer Finances for 1989-2022. Using this classification, we, second, document that inter-class income and wealth inequality have risen since 1989. Third, we show that, with the exception of business assets, working-class households hold similar asset classes as non-working-class households and receive financial income. However, working-class households receive a 2.5 percentage point lower average rate of return than non-working-class households, conditional on observable demographic and economic differences across classes. This gap reflects differential returns on businesses and real estate. These results suggest that expanded asset market access in the U.S. has conferred unequal benefits by class status and widened inequalities along class lines.
Topic:
Markets, Inequality, Assets, and Working Class
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2155. U.S. Teachers, Overwork and Perceptions of Work-Time Reductions: Evidence from Massachusetts

Author:
Katherine Moos and Noé M. Wiener
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This study is based on four focus group interviews with public school teachers in Massachusetts about reducing work hours as a means of improving their working conditions. Our analysis documents a common experience of overwork, expressed in the focus groups and measured by time-use diaries. Teachers reported long work hours and a significant “mental load”—both of which affect teachers’ quality of life, physical and mental health, relationships with their families, and desire to keep teaching. While participants were union members and therefore experienced with collective bargaining, most approached the issue of overwork as an individual problem that must be solved by setting and maintaining personal boundaries. Focus group participants differed in their assessment of a hypothetical policy proposal for a work-time reduction without a loss of pay for teachers or instructional time for students. While generally supportive of the goal, participants questioned whether contractual reductions would correspond to actual reductions in hours worked. Teachers expressed both eagerness to include work-time reductions in future contracts, as well as skepticism that their districts had the fiscal space or political will to achieve this goal. Discussions revealed that teachers’ professional identities as hard-working and caring “perfectionists” inhibited their policy imaginations with regard to using collective bargaining to win them additional leisure time.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, Teachers, and Work
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2156. Implicit Coordination in Sellers’ Inflation: How Cost Shocks Facilitate Price Hikes

Author:
Isabella Weber, Evan Wasner, Markus Lang, Benjamin Braun, and Jens van't Klooster
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Supply shocks are now widely recognized as a driver of the recent inflation bout, but the role of firms’ pricing strategies in propagating input cost shocks remains contested. In this paper, we review the state of the academic debate over sellers’ inflation and assess whether, in line with this theory, economy-wide cost shocks have functioned as an implicit coordination mechanism for firms to hike prices. We use a dataset containing 138,962 corporate earnings call transcripts of 4,823 stock-market listed U.S. corporations from the period 2007-Q1 to 2022-Q2 to conduct sentiment analysis via both dictionary-based natural language processing and a large language model approach. We find that large input price shocks (as well as their co-occurrence with supply constraints) correlate with positive sentiments expressed in executives’ statements about cost increases. Qualitative analysis provides further insights into the reasoning behind executives’ optimism regarding their ability to turn an economy-wide cost shock into an opportunity to raise prices and protect or even increase profits.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Profit, and Corporations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2157. Distributional Implications and Share Ownership of Record Oil and Gas Profits

Author:
Gregor Semienuk, Isabella M. Weber, Iain Weaver, Evan Wasner, Benjamin Braun, Philip B. Holden, Pablo Salas, Jean-Francois Mercure, and Neil R. Edwards
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The 2022 oil and gas crisis resulted in record fossil-fuel profits globally that rehabilitated the oil and gas industry, obstruct the energy transition and contributed to inflation. We analyse the size and the distribution of financial beneficiaries of these unprecedented profits across countries and across wealth groups within the United States, using company income statements and comprehensive ownership data, to construct a global network of shareholdings with 397,619 nodes. We estimate that globally, net income in publicly listed oil and gas companies reached US$916 billion in 2022. The United States was the biggest beneficiary receiving US$301 billion in fossil fuel profits both from domestic extraction and through global shareholding, more than U.S. investments of US$267 billion in the low carbon economy that year. Analyzing the U.S. distribution including privately held US companies, 51% of profits went to the wealthiest 1%, predominantly through direct shareholdings and private company ownership. In contrast the bottom 50% only received 1%. The incremental fossil-fuel profits in 2022 over those in 2021 were enough to increase the disposable income of the wealthiest Americans several percent and compensate a substantial part of their purchasing power loss from inflation that year, thereby exacerbating inflation inequality. Record fossil-fuel profits also reinforce existing racial and ethnic inequalities and inequalities between groups with different educational attainments. Our results also show that only a small share of overall profits benefits institutions that serve the wider public such as pension funds. We discuss how windfall profits taxes could be used to both lower inequality and accelerate the energy transition as increasing geopolitical tensions and climate impacts portend continued volatility in oil and gas markets.
Topic:
Oil, Gas, Inflation, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2158. Sex-Selective Abortion and the Collapse of the Soviet Union

Author:
Raymond Caraher, Shih-Yen Pan, and Lawrence King
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Elevated Sex Ratios at Birth (SRBs)—an indicator of sex-selective abortion—have been documented in many countries worldwide. This paper examines the causal effect of the Soviet Union’s collapse on SRBs in Post-Soviet countries, using a differencein-differences research design. Our findings indicate that the collapse resulted in a rise in SRBs by approximately 1.5 percent, peaking in the late 1990s before subsiding in the 2000s. This result suggests that the collapse of the Soviet Union explains 64 percent of the approximately 192,000 missing girls in the Post-Soviet states in the 1990s. Furthermore, the impact of the collapse on SRBs was observed in both high and low son-preference countries, with the effect being roughly twice as large in high sonpreference countries, where it persisted into the late 2000s. The conventional theory of pre-natal sex selection typically involves the introduction of modern sex-determination technology into a cultural environment which values sons over daughters. Our findings suggest that economic and political shocks can also be key drivers behind increases in sex-selective abortion and SRBs.
Topic:
Reproductive Health, Abortion, and Gender
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

2159. Is “High Inflation” Always and Everywhere an Exchange Rate Phenomenon?

Author:
Tural Yusifzada, Hasan Cömert, and Kagan Parmaksiz
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
After decades of stable and low levels of inflation throughout the world, the recent global upsurge in inflation has once again triggered extensive debate among economists about the underlying reasons for the rising trend in inflation. This study aims to contribute to this ongoing discussion by exploring a potential channel that could be fundamental to our understanding of the high inflation levels common across a large number of countries. Drawing upon a rich historical dataset spanning from 1961 to 2023 and employing a random effects panel probit model, our research reveals that the nominal exchange rate depreciation emerges as a strong predictor of “high inflation” episodes across different economies and time periods. Notably, this predictive capability extends to countries with varying income levels, with high-income, upper-middle-income, and lower-middle-income nations exhibiting success rates of 70%, 77%, and 63%, respectively, in forecasting “high inflation” based solely on exchange rate depreciation. Furthermore, food and energy prices also emerge as other important contributors to inflation. These findings have important implications for recognizing exchange rate depreciation as a vital early warning signal for high inflation not only facilitates more timely and effective policy interventions but also emphasizes the critical role of historical exchange rate dynamics and supplyside factors in comprehending the complexities of “high inflation.”
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Early Warning, and Panel Probit Model
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2160. The Economics of Eliminating Plastic Water Bottles in the United States

Author:
Emily Diaz-Loar
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
As of the most recent 2018 data, U.S. residents purchased more than 70 billion plastic water bottles. On average, this amounts to each U.S. resident buying 214 plastic water bottles during 2018. Virtually all these bottles are manufactured as fossil fuel-based products, and 86 percent are disposed of after only one use. Such fossil fuel-based single-use plastic bottles inflict a range of severe negative impacts on the environment and human health. They leach toxic chemicals into the soil, water and food supply, which in turn contribute to causing various types of cancers as well as infertility, in humans and other species. They also release tiny ‘microplastic’ particles, which have been found in, among other parts of the human body, the carotid artery tissues that supply blood to the brain. Recent research has found that people with microplastics in their carotid artery tissues were twice as likely to have a heart attack, stroke or die from any cause over the next three years than people who had none. Beyond this, plastic bottles litter beaches and roadways, clog water drains, strangle animals and contaminate habitats. It is clear that continuing, and expanding, the consumption of single-use fossil fuel-based plastic water bottles, in the U.S. and elsewhere, is unsustainable. In this study, I examine alternative approaches to phasing out their use. More specifically I consider six possible alternatives to single-use fossil fuel-based plastic water bottles within the U.S. economy. These include: recycling fossil-fuel based bottles; utilizing plants as the raw material for producing ‘bioplastic’ bottles; and producing bottles with materials other than plastics, including paperboard cartons; glass; aluminum; and stainless steel. Of these alternatives, I show that, in terms of both environmental impacts and production costs, the most viable substitutes for single-use fossil-fuel based plastic bottles are reusable bottles made from either aluminum or stainless steel. Overall, aluminum or stainless steel-based bottles can significantly reduce the environmental impacts of water bottles, in particular the chemical toxicity that results from their use. Substituting aluminum or stainless steel-based bottles can also dramatically reduce the levels of waste and raw material extraction associated with fossil fuel-based plastic bottles. Further, I estimate that the costs of producing bottles from either aluminum or stainless steel will fall by over 30 percent in a scenario in which they substitute for 90 percent of the fossil fuel-based single-use plastic bottles now being consumed in the U.S. Overall, my results demonstrate that there are realistic prospects to achieve major environmental and economic benefits through phasing out single-use plastic bottles and creating viable alternatives to their continued use.
Topic:
Economics, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America