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4751. The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions

Author:
Lutz Kilian and Robert J. Vigfusson
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional recessionary effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s. Compared to the linear model, the cumulative effect of oil price shocks over the course of the next two years is much larger in the net oil price increase model. For example, oil price shocks explain a 3 percent cumulative reduction in U.S. real GDP in the late 1970s and early 1980s and a 5 percent cumulative reduction during the financial crisis. An obvious concern is that some of these estimates are an artifact of net oil price increases being correlated with other variables that explain recessions. We show that the explanatory power of oil price shocks largely persists even after augmenting the nonlinear model with a measure of credit supply conditions, of the monetary policy stance and of consumer confidence. There is evidence, however, that the conditional fit of the net oil price increase model is worse on average than the fit of the corresponding linear model, suggesting much smaller cumulative effects of oil price shocks for these episodes of at most 1 percent.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Global Recession, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, and GDP
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4752. Bank Interventions and Options-based Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Global and Euro-area Crisis

Author:
Juan M. Londono and Mary Tian
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using a novel dataset on central bank interventions to financial institutions, we examine the impact of capital injection announcements on systemic risk for the banking sector in the U.S. and the euro area between 2008 and 2013. We propose a new measure of options-based systemic risk called downside correlation risk premium (DCRP), which quantifies the compensation investors demand for being exposed to the risk of large correlated drops in bank stock prices. DCRP is calculated using options that provide a hedge against large drops in the price of a bank index and its individual components. We find that, irrespective of their characteristics, intervention announcements significantly reduce DCRP in the U.S. while for the euro area, interventions were largely unsuccessful at reducing DCRP.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Institutions, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

4753. The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy

Author:
Lorenzo Caliendo, Fernando Parro, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, and Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to the rest of the economy. The quantitative model we develop features pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and structures and land as an immobile factor. We allow for sectoral linkages in the form of an intermediate input structure that matches the U.S. input-output matrix. Using data on trade flows by industry between states, as well as other regional and industry data, we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elasticities of measured TFP, GDP, and employment to regional and sectoral productivity changes. We find that such elasticities can vary significantly depending on the sectors and regions affected and are importantly determined by the spatial structure of the US economy. We highlight the role of these elasticities by tracing out the effects of productivity gains in California in the Computers and Electronics industry between 2002 and 2007 on all other U.S. sectors and regions.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, GDP, Regionalism, and Productivity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4754. The Replacement of Safe Assets: Evidence from the U.S. Bond Portfolio

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut, Alexandra Tabova, and Vivian Wong
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The expansion in financial sector "safe" assets, largely in the form of structured products from the U.S. and the Caribbean, in the lead-up to the global financial crisis has by now been fairly well documented. Using a unique dataset derived from security-level data on U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities, we show that since the crisis, it is mostly the foreign financial sector that appears to have met U.S. demand for safe and liquid investment assets by expanding its supply of debt securities. We also find a strong negative correlation between the foreign share of the U.S. financial bond portfolio and measures of U.S. safe assets availability: providing evidence on the importance of foreign-issued financial sector debt as a substitute when U.S. issued "safe" assets are scarce. Furthermore, although U.S. investors continue to tap foreign financial markets for "safe" assets, we show that the type of foreign financial debt that fills this portfolio niche post-crisis is quite different than pre-crisis. Post-crisis, we find that U.S. investors have replaced offshore-issued structured securities with high-grade U.S. dollar-denominated financial debt issued from a small group of OECD countries (most notably Australia and Canada). Lastly, these developments have led to a decline in home bias in the U.S. financial bond portfolio that we are able to document for the first time.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Financial Crisis, Investment, Fiscal Policy, and Bonds
Political Geography:
Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

4755. Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata

Author:
Ryan Monarch, Jooyoun Park, and Jagadeesh Sivadasan
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output (38.5 per cent) and capital (28.8 per cent) relative to their industry peers. We find no significant change in average wages or in total factor productivity measures for offshoring firms. These results are consistent across two separate difference-in-differences (DID) approaches, an instrumental variables approach, and a number of robustness checks. Thus, we find offshoring to be a strong substitute for domestic activity in this large sample of offshoring events.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Manufacturing, Trade, Outsourcing, and Capital
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4756. The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile

Author:
Tom Z. Collina
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The United States currently plans to spend some $355 billion to maintain and rebuild its Cold War-era nuclear arsenal over the next decade, even as the overall U.S. defense budget is declining and U.S. military planners and the president have determined that the United States can deter nuclear threats against the United States and its allies with far fewer nuclear weapons. This report argues that the increasingly high cost of nuclear weapons, combined with shrinking budgets and stockpiles, should compel the executive branch, Congress, and the American public to rethink current plans to rebuild U.S. nuclear forces in the years ahead. The Unaffordable Arsenal outlines common sense ways to save roughly $70 billion over the next decade across all three legs of the triad by scaling-back, delaying, and/or deferring expensive new delivery systems and by taking a more disciplined, straightforward approach to nuclear warhead life-extensions and refurbishments.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4757. The Superiority of Economists

Author:
Marion Fourcade, Etienne Ollion, and Yann Algan
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
In this essay, we investigate the dominant position of economics within the network of the social sciences in the United States. We begin by documenting the relative insularity of economics, using bibliometric data. Next we analyze the tight management of the field from the top down, which gives economics its characteristic hierarchical structure. Economists also distinguish themselves from other social scientists through their much better material situation (many teach in business schools, have external consulting activities), their more individualist worldviews, and in the confidence they have in their discipline’s ability to fix the world’s problems. Taken together, these traits constitute what we call the superiority of economists, where economists’ objective supremacy is intimately linked with their subjective sense of authority and entitlement. While this superiority has certainly fueled economists’ practical involvement and their considerable influence over the economy, it has also exposed them more to conflicts of interests, political critique, even derision.
Topic:
Economics, Academia, Social Science, and Hierarchy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4758. Pioneers of a European Diplomatic System: EU Delegations in Moscow and Washington

Author:
Heidi Maurer and Kristi Raik
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Since December 2009, the European Union has been represented abroad by more than 130 delegations, which are an integral part of the new European External Action Service (EEAS). This paper explores the performance and potential of the delegations in contributing to a common EU foreign policy. The delegations have to strike the right balance between performing the functions of traditional diplomatic missions, while also representing the EU as a political entity that is more than an international organization, but less than a state. The delegations act as a bridge between nascent EU diplomacy and the national diplomacies of the member states. They are also microcosms that gather together under one roof different elements of the EU’s external relations, ranging from the Common Foreign and Security Policy to trade and aid, energy and migration. The delegations have been rather successful in their three main tasks: representing the Union towards third countries, coordinating and providing services to the member states, and contributing to EU policy-making. This paper focuses on two key locations, Moscow and Washington, where the delegations are becoming visible diplomatic actors providing added value to member states as well as EU institutions. The authors argue that, following on from an early albeit cautious success, the delegations should take a stronger role in providing input into EU policy-making, promoting European interests abroad, and advancing consensus among member states’ representatives in the field. The EEAS headquarters should build a stronger link to the delegations, through more active political steering and by endeavouring to make more systematic use of the work on the ground.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

4759. Rethinking U.S.-China Security Cooperation

Author:
Nancy Gallagher
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
This paper argues that traditional arms control approaches no longer work well for even traditional security problems on the U.S.-Chinese security agenda for three reasons: Firstly, even when both states reason for arms control from the superpowers’ experience during the Cold War, they do so in different ways; secondly, a growing number of experts and policy elite in both countries do not think the benefits of formal arms control outweigh the costs and risks; and thirdly, those who think formal arms control has an important role to play lack a clear and compelling logic for why arms control is durable and achievable among highly interdependent states with unequal power, mixed interests, and dissimilar values. Past attempts find a new basis for U.S.-China security cooperation—e.g., by using voluntary measures or by relying on the economic interdependence of the two states—have proved insufficient. The second half of this paper suggests the basic elements of a cooperative security logic that could be a more appropriate and effective basis for cooperation. Instead of narrowly defining the objective of arms control as increasing deterrence stability at lower cost and risk, this logic aims more broadly to prevent threats from developing, provide reassurance, and promote consensual political order among states. Rather than trying primarily to set equal technical limitations on military capabilities, dialogue and negotiations should seek to ensure that whatever capabilities states have, including asymmetrical and dual-use ones, are used for mutually acceptable purposes and according to equitable behavioral rules. Issues related to transparency, verification, and compliance management would also be handled in ways that promote cooperation rather than competition. The paper concludes by examining how U.S.-Chinese cooperation in space, on nuclear weapons issues (including the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty), and on missile defense all stand to benefit from reliance on this new logic.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Bilateral Relations, Deterrence, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4760. Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
This survey is one in a series of surveys related to Iran that CISSM has conducted since 2013.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Nuclear Power, Negotiation, and Survey
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

4761. The U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State: many questions, few answers

Author:
Yossi Alpher
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The U.S. commitment to "ultimately destroy" the Islamic State implies an extended military commitment in a highly complex Middle East environment. By looking at the strategic issues that emerge from this dynamic, we can hope better to understand impending developments. These issues centre on the motive behind the U.S. decision to enter the conflict; the U.S. relationship with its European and regional partners and, by contrast, with other major actors in the region like Iran, Syria, Turkey and Egypt; the options for the Islamic State’s response; and issues of U.S. strategy and grand strategy regarding the Islamic world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, Islamic State, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

4762. The Japan-US Military Alliance and the Asia-Pacific Challenges: Prospects for Deep Changes

Author:
Antonio Marquina
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
In the last fifteen years a fundamental shift in the strategic balance in Asia – Pacific has taking place. The article aims at discussing the difficulties the Japan-US military Alliance has adaptating to this new regional strategic environment. It also explains the new strategy that President Obama´s Administration is trying to implement, initially called “Pivot to Asia” and later “Rebalance”. The article tries to show the challenges that this new strategy implies for both Japan and the United States, enumerating different scenarios some of them not very likely and highlighting on the contrary the possibility of a more assertive and military independent Japan.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

4763. Ugly Truths: Saddam Hussein and Other Insiders on Iraq’s Covert Bioweapons

Author:
Amy Smithson
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Although the inspections of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), which operated from April 1991 to October 1998, unmasked Iraq’s biological weapons program and revealed a considerable amount of detail about its planning, organization, and execution, various factors about the program remain unclear. These gaps in information persisted through the activities and reporting of both the United Nations Monitoring, Verification, and Inspections Commission, which existed from December 1999 until the outbreak of the second Gulf War in March 2003, and the Iraq Survey Group, which reported on the remnants of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction capabilities after the 2003 Gulf War.1 To deepen understanding about Iraq’s biological weapons program, a team of analysts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) identified a number of research questions that, if answered, would provide a more comprehensive account of Iraq’s biological and chemical weapons programs. The twenty research questions ran the gamut of relevant topics. Specifically with regard to the bioweapons program, the research questions sought to clarify the reasons behind Iraq’s choice of biowarfare agents and delivery systems, the timeline and technical specifics for certain activities, possible interaction with governments and biowarfare experts outside of Iraq, the management of the program, and the details of how Iraq disposed of its biological munitions and bulk biowarfare agent. In an effort to answer some or all of these questions, CNS’s staff turned to the records of the Conflict Records Research Center (CRRC) database. In mid-July 2011, the time in which CNS’s staff reviewed the CRRC records for information pertinent to Iraq’s biological weapons program, it should be noted that a relatively small fraction of the documents in the possession of the CRRC had been translated into English and made available in the CRRC database. Accordingly, the review of the database did not turn up a tremendous number of documents providing insights about Iraq’s biological weapons program. Nonetheless, the review uncovered several documents that shed light largely on the political management of Iraq’s bioweapons program and how Iraq’s leaders tried to cope with UNSCOM’s inspections. This report, which begins with a brief review of the search methodology, otherwise presents the research findings in rough but not exact chronological order. To help the reader quickly grasp the relevance of the research findings in a history that is complicated and sometimes full of technical detail, the research findings are interlaced with background derived largely from Germ Gambits: The Bioweapons Dilemma, Iraq and Beyond (Stanford University Press, 2011). Germ Gambits, which tells the tale of UNSCOM’s bioweapons inspections in Iraq, is based primarily on interviews with UNSCOM inspectors, buttressed by UNSCOM documents and secondary materials. Therefore, any citation to Germ Gambits is based on numerous authoritative sources. Because this report provides the unadulterated Iraqi view on certain topics, in a certain sense it is like seeing the other side of the coin that Germ Gambits presents. CNS Senior fellow Amy E. Smithson, PhD, wrote Germ Gambits and was the principal researcher reviewing the biological weapons-related documents in the CRRC database.
Topic:
United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Nonproliferation, Conflict, and Biological Weapons
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4764. The Senkaku Islands and the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Future Implications for the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Tetsuo Kotani
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
By challenging Japan’s control of the Senkaku Islands, China is testing the resolve of Tokyo and the strategic position of Washington. In other words, China is testing the credibility of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Casual observers tend to overlook or underestimate the confront-ation that ensued between Tokyo and Beijing after the Japanese government formally purchased three Senkaku islets in September 2012.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

4765. Clarifying U.S. – Japan Mine Warfare Roles, Missions, and Capabilities in the Persian Gulf: An Examination of International Legal Issues

Author:
Sean Henseler
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The “Armitage/Nye Report” suggests that one area for potential increased alliance defense cooperation is minesweeping in the Persian Gulf. There is no question that Japan has the capability to deploy minesweepers to the Gulf and that doing so might have a deterrent effect were Iran to announce once again that it was planning to close the SOH. The real question for policymakers revolves around Japanese willingness to do so.
Topic:
International Law, War, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, Persian Gulf, and United States of America

4766. A ‘New Era’ for Japan’s Global Engagement and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Yukio Tada
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
There have been already “many ‘firsts’” in the Abe 2.0 administration. With continued political leadership and bold economic initiatives on both sides, there is now a historic opportunity to help get the U.S.-Japan alliance back on the right track.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, Economy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and United States of America

4767. Upgrading the Japan-U.S. Defense Guidelines: Toward a New Phase of Operational Coordination

Author:
Sugio Takahashi
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Japan-U.S. alliance has unique organizational characteristics compared to other major U.S. military alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the U.S.-ROK (Republic of Korea) alliance. While these two alliances have a single integrated command and control (C2) structure for wartime coalition operation, the Japan-U.S. alliance lacks a permanent institution for combined operation. In the event of a military contingency, Japanese Self-Defense Force (SDF) and U.S. military forces must operate separately. In the absence of a C2 structure, the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation (hereafter “Defense Guidelines”) in effect embody procedures for operational coordination for the Japan-U.S. alliance.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

4768. Journal of Public and International Affairs 2013

Author:
Greg Rosalsky, Sarah Schleck, Nathaniel D. F. Allen, Ezra Levin, Alex Penwill, Farzan Sabet, Daniel Tam-Claiborne, Albert Trithart, Mark Walker, Ben Grubb, and Gloria Twesigye
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
The nine articles in this volume were chosen from over 150 submissions through a blind-selection process in Princeton. After individually reading a large number of submissions, attending editors first voted for their favorite papers via secret ballot, and we then facilitated an open debate to winnow down these choices to the cream of the crop. In the intervening months before publication, editors in Princeton from relevant policy areas worked with the authors to fact-check their work and fine-tune their arguments. While their geographic foci and policy subjects are multifarious, all the authors in this edition share a passion for changing the world through better policy. Whether it is women’s health issues in Tanzania, banking regulation in the European Union, diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, or immigration policy in the United States, the authors implore global policymakers to change course in order to remedy contemporary problems in public affairs. This dedication to making the world a better place through public policy, in addition to demonstrating first-rate scholarship, make us proud to showcase these articles.
Topic:
Health, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Foreign Aid, Governance, Nuclear Power, Democracy, Economy, Arms Trade, and Microcredit
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Iran, Tanzania, Honduras, Mali, Niger, and United States of America

4769. Le Congrès des Etats-Unis : une assemblée incontrôlable ? (Is Congress out of Control ?)

Author:
François Vergniolle De Chantal
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
The US Congres is the most powerful legislative in the world. Its independence and its powers make it impossible for the presidency to be truly imperial. The Senate is especially influential since it allows its members to use a series of minority procedures, such as the filibuster, that exert a constant a priori pressure on the Executive. This institutional configuration is made extremely costly by the current partisan polarization. It is also, however, a functional equivalent to the theoretical parliamentary right of life and death on Executive powers.
Topic:
Governance, Law, Political Science, and State
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4770. Challengers from the Sidelines: Understanding America’s Violent Far-Right

Author:
Arie Perliger
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the last few years, and especially since 2007, there has been a dramatic rise in the number of attacks and violent plots originating from individuals and groups who self-identify with the far-right of American politics. These incidents cause many to wonder whether these are isolated attacks, an increasing trend, part of increasing societal violence, or attributable to some other condition. To date, however, there has been limited systematic documentation and analysis of incidents of American domestic violence. This study provides a conceptual foundation for understanding different far-right groups and then presents the empirical analysis of violent incidents to identify those perpetrating attacks and their associated trends. Through a comprehensive look at the data, this study addresses three core questions: (1) What are the main current characteristics of the violence produced by the far right? (2) What type of far-right groups are more prone than others to engage in violence? How are characteristics of particular far-right groups correlated with their tendency to engage in violence? (3) What are the social and political factors associated with the level of far-right violence? Are there political or social conditions that foster or discourage violence? It is important to note that this study concentrates on those individuals and groups who have actually perpetuated violence and is not a comprehensive analysis of the political causes with which some far-right extremists identify. While the ability to hold and appropriately articulate diverse political views is an American strength, extremists committing acts of violence in the name of those causes undermine the freedoms that they purport to espouse.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Ideology, Far Right, and Recruitment
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4771. Shale gas: Negotiating new energy, export finance and environmental equations

Author:
Karan Pradhan
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
ndia is the second largest (after Mexico) client of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, with an $8.5 billion line of credit. The energy and petrochemicals sectors are the major beneficiaries. The discovery of shale gas and the development of related technology in the U.S., however, are likely to change the nature of the exports of energy products and technology to India. The financing to procure them will also be different, because the U.S is willing to compete with China on financial terms. Moreover, the shift from oil and compressed natural gas to shale can have a cascading negative impact on India’s environment, if opportunities in tapping alternative energy sources are neglected. Indian policy must balance the benefits of securing new technology and better financing for shale gas exploration within the country and from imports, with a firm commitment to renewable energy initiatives within the country.
Topic:
Environment, Gas, Finance, Exports, and Energy
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and United States of America

4772. Attack of the Drones: Ethical, Legal and Strategic Implications of UAV Use

Author:
Lena Simone Andrews
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The United States has dramatically increased the development, acquisition, and use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). As these systems have grown, a chorus of skeptics has raised questions about the tactical, ethical, and strategic implications of this technology.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Drones, and Innovation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4773. Debating US Interests in Syria's Civil War

Author:
Brian Haggerty
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
In the aftermath of a chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus on August 21, President Obama's threat to launch a limited cruise missile strike to "deter and degrade" Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's chemical weapons capability has once again thrust U.S. Syria policy to the forefront of national debate.
Topic:
Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

4774. Crisis and Calm: Demand for U.S. Currency at Home and Abroad From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to 2011

Author:
Ruth Judson
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
U.S. currency has long been a desirable store of value and medium of exchange in times and places where local currency or bank deposits are inferior in one or more respects. Indeed, as noted in earlier work, a substantial share of U.S. currency circulates outside the United States. Although precise measurements of stocks and flows of U.S. currency outside the United States are not available, a variety of data sources and methods have been developed to provide estimates. This paper reviews the raw data available for measuring international banknote flows and presents updates on indirect methods of estimating the stock of currency held abroad: the seasonal method and the biometric method. These methods require some adjustments, but they continue to indicate that a large share of U.S. currency is held abroad, especially in the $100 denomination. In addition to these existing indirect methods, I develop a framework and basic variants of a new method to estimate the share of U.S. currency held abroad. Although the methods and estimates are disparate, they provide support for several hypotheses regarding cross-border dollar stocks and flows. First, once a country or region begins using dollars, subsequent crises result in additional inflows: the dominant sources of international demand over the past decade and a half are the countries and regions that were known to be heavy dollar users in the early to mid-1990s. Second, economic stabilization and modernization appear to result in reversal of these inflows. Specifically, demand for U.S. currency was extremely strong through the 1990s, a period of turmoil for the former Soviet Union and for Argentina, two of the largest overseas users of U.S. currency. Demand eased in the early 2000s as conditions gradually stabilized and as financial institutions developed. However, this trend reversed sharply with the onset of the financial crisis in late 2008 and has continued since then.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Currency, Banking, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4775. On Returns Differentials

Author:
Stephanie E. Curcuru, Charles Thomas, and Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Estimates of U.S. returns differentials have ranged from exorbitant to quite small, in part because of their volatility coupled with the relatively short time series available. We shed light on underlying drivers of returns differentials by presenting a number of decompositions: a by-asset-class decomposition into yields and capital gains, the Gourinchas and Rey (2007a) composition and return effects, and further decompositions of capital gains that focus on exchange rate effects. While each decomposition informs thinking about returns differentials, one constant is evident throughout: to date the existing differential favoring the U.S. has owed primarily to one factor, a differential in direct investment yields. We discuss how our analysis informs the income puzzle (of positive net income flows to the U.S. even as its net international investment position is negative and substantial) and the position puzzle (of a sizeable gap between the reported U.S. net international position and cumulated current account deficits), provide an initial assessment of the literature on the dynamics of returns differentials, and present a framework to guide a forward-looking view of how returns differentials might evolve in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, Investment, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4776. Do Central Banks' Forecasts Take Into Account Public Opinion and Views?

Author:
Ricardo Nunes
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve through the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly releases macroeconomic forecasts to the general public and the US congress with the purpose of explaining the likely evolution of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Immediately before doing so, the FOMC receives a forecast produced by the Federal Reserve staff which remains private for five years. The literature has pointed out that, despite the informational advantage of the FOMC, its forecast differs from and is not always more accurate than the staff forecast. This finding has raised concerns regarding the loss of relevant information and the usefulness of the FOMC forecasts. This paper brings evidence that the FOMC forecast also incorporates other publicly available forecasts and views, and that the weight attributed to public forecasts is larger than what is optimal given a mean squared error objective. These findings are consistent with i) the institutional role of the FOMC in being representative of a variety of public views, ii) the academic literature recommendation to use equal weights and not to overfit specific forecasts based on past performance. The statistical model can also account for several empirical regularities of the forecasts.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Governance, and Banking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4777. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?

Author:
Shaghil Ahmed and Andrei Zlate
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We examine the determinants of net private capital inflows to emerging market economies. These inflows are computed from quarterly balance-of-payments data from 2002:Q1 to 2012:Q2. Our main findings are: First, growth and interest rate differentials between EMEs and advanced economies and global risk appetite are statistically and economically important determinants of net private capital inflows. Second, there have been significant changes in the behavior of net inflows from the period before the recent global financial crisis to the post-crisis period, especially for portfolio inflows, partly explained by the greater sensitivity of such .flows to interest rate differentials and risk aversion. Third, capital control measures introduced in recent years do appear to have discouraged both total and portfolio inflows. Fourth, in the pre-crisis period, there is some evidence that greater foreign exchange intervention to curb currency appreciation pressures brought more capital inflows down the line, but we cannot identify such an effect in the post-crisis period. Finally, we do not find statistically significant positive effects of unconventional U.S. monetary expansion on total net EME inflows, although there does seem to be a change in composition toward portfolio flows. Even for portfolio flows, U.S. unconventional policy is only one among several important factors.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Interest Rates, and Capital
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4778. International Evidence on Government Support and Risk Taking in the Banking Sector

Author:
Luis Brandao-Marques, Ricardo Correa, and Horacio Sapriza
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Government support to banks through the provision of explicit or implicit guarantees affects the willingness of banks to take on risk by reducing market discipline or by increasing charter value. We use an international sample of rated banks and find that government support is associated with more risk taking by banks, especially prior and during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. We also find that restricting banks range of activities ameliorates the link between government support and bank risk taking. We conclude that strengthening market discipline by reducing bank complexity is needed to address this moral hazard problem.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4779. "Fool Me Once . . . " Did U.S. Investors Play it Safer in the European Debt Crisis?

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut, Fang Cai, and Nyssa Kim
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines U.S. investors' portfolio investment patterns since the global financial crisis, particularly since the European debt crisis that began in late 2009. The global financial crisis during 2007-2009 was accompanied by an increase in U.S. investors' home bias. U.S. investors experienced significant valuation losses and pulled back notably from their foreign investment, especially from foreign debt. In contrast, while they have also incurred sizable losses on cross-border investment during the European debt crisis, U.S. investors so far have not shown any increase in home bias, and they have not even pulled back from their long-term investments in Europe. Holdings data show that U.S. investors have continued to invest in European securities, particularly in government debt, but have made little new investment in the financial sector. This continued interest in European securities could owe to the fact that most of U.S. holdings of European debt have been concentrated in dollar-denominated debt issued by core euro area countries and the United Kingdom, which are deemed relatively safe. Changes in the composition of holdings over the past couple years suggest that U.S. investors have behaved in a way that reflects their diversity and differing objectives: while investors reached for higher yields in government debt, there also appears to be some shift toward safer investment in the financial sector.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Investment, Securities, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

4780. Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S.

Author:
Illenin O. Kondo
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using data on trade-induced displacements, this paper documents that locations facing more foreign competition in the U.S. have: higher job destruction rates, lower job creation rates, and thereby lower employment rates. In contrast to standard trade theory, a model with variable markups and heterogeneous segmented labor markets is consistent with these facts. Foreign competition has a correlated effect on job destruction and job creation precisely because the most vulnerable locations also have lower productivity. Following an unexpected trade liberalization with limited mobility, employment sharply falls in the worse hit locations while welfare and employment increase in the aggregate.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Reform, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4781. Do Small Businesses Still Prefer Community Banks?

Author:
Allen N. Berger, William Goulding, and Tara Rice
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We formulate and test hypotheses about the role of bank type small versus large, single-market versus multimarket, and local versus nonlocal banks in banking relationships. The conventional paradigm suggests that "community banks" small, single market, local institutions are better able to form strong relationships with informationally opaque small businesses, while "megabanks" large, multimarket, nonlocal institutions tend to serve more transparent firms. Using the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finance (SSBF), we conduct two sets of tests. First, we test for the type of bank serving as the "main" relationship bank for small businesses with different firm and owner characteristics. Second, we test for the strength of these main relationships by examining the probability of multiple relationships and relationship length as functions of main bank type and financial fragility, as well as firm and owner characteristics. The results are often not consistent with the conventional paradigm, perhaps because of changes in lending technologies and deregulation of the banking industry.
Topic:
Business, Banks, Local, and Community
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4782. Managing Expectations in the U.S.-Japan Alliance: U.S. and Japanese Perspectives

Author:
Randall Schriver and Sugio Takahashi
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
As a participant in the Armitage-Nye process, I am associated with a set of policy recommendations that have been remarkably consistent over the course of twelve years and three reports (Armitage-Nye reports were produced in 2000, 2007, and 2012 respectively). Some common themes run across all three reports: We are unapologetic about promoting high aspirations for the U.S.-Japan alliance. We attempt to outline an ambitious bilateral agenda in great specificity. We believe that those aspirations and the ambitious agenda can only be met through the intentional and dedicated efforts of senior political leaders on both sides.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4783. Obama’s Second Term in the Asia-Pacific Region: Reflecting on the Past, Looking to the Future

Author:
Sabrina Tsai
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Asia-Pacific region proved to be one of the top priorities of U.S. foreign policy during President Obama’s first term. The East China Sea and South China Sea territorial disputes; Kim Jong-un’s succession to the North Korean leadership and subsequent provocations; and China’s rapid military modernization over the last two decades were and continue to be among some of the top security issues for the Obama Administration. This paper outlines Obama’s Asia policy in the first term and assesses the trajectory of the U.S. “rebalance” strategy in the second term, taking into account the numerous personnel changes in Obama’s senior-level foreign policy team.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
China, North Korea, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

4784. Toward a New Phase of US-China Museum Collaborations

Author:
Melissa Chiu, Orville Schell, and András Szántó
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The 2012 U.S.-China Museum Directors Forum, organized by Asia Society and the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, brought together 17 Chinese and 15 American museum leaders for a two-day dialogue to assess common needs and develop new processes for museum exchanges. The museum leaders identified various benefits of museum exchanges. Such programs provide information and experiences to museum audiences; foster tolerance and understanding between nations; and enhance cultural competence in a globalized world. The directors also identified obstacles impeding museum collaborations, including disparities in resources and practices; cumbersome bureaucratic, legal, and regulatory systems; a lack of familiarity between museum professionals; and the absence of institutional and funding mechanisms to facilitate exchanges. Going forward, the museum leaders pinpointed three key areas of need and opportunity for the evolution of U.S.-China museum collaborations: improving people-to-people contacts; fostering institutional relations; and greater coordination within the museum sector in both countries. Taken together, the recommendations offer a blueprint for improving institutional interactions. The directors suggested specific programs that their institutions, coupled with other museums, government agencies, and private funders, can pursue going forward. The consensus view among them was that the expansion of museum collaborations will require new funding and organizational mechanisms to spur and conduct exchange activities. Some of the goals outlined by the Chinese and American museum directors will be pursued by the Asian Arts and Museum Network, established in 2012 by Asia Society Museum.
Topic:
International Relations, Arts, Culture, and Museums
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4785. Liberalism in Obama's age

Author:
John Ikenberry
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
I'm trying to lay out my thinking on Obama's foreign policy and the larger debate often seen inside the United States about the role of the United States over the next years.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Liberalism, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4786. The Naval Nuclear Reactor Threat to the NPT

Author:
Greg Thielmann and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has long been a critical bulwark against the spread of nuclear weapons. Although preventing the production and accumulation of fissile material is an important part of this effort, the NPT does not explicitly regulate the production, use, and disposition of highly enriched uranium (HEU) for naval nuclear reactors. This exclusion poses a growing risk to achieving the nonproliferation goals of the treaty. While seeking to advance prospects for a fissile material cutoff treaty, the United States is continuing to design naval reactors for the world’s largest nuclear submarine fleet that are powered with weapons-grade uranium. While proclaiming its renunciation of any nuclear weapons ambitions, Brazil plans to build six nuclear submarines powered by uranium fuel that may be close to weapons grade. Neither the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nor important NPT member states have fully confronted the proliferation implications of excluding naval reactor fuel from safeguards. The IAEA and NPT members should take steps to minimize the use of HEU for any reason—a goal they declared just this month at a nuclear security conference in Vienna.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
Brazil, Global Focus, and United States of America

4787. Iran's Missile Program and Its Implications for U.S. Missile Defense

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Although plans for expanding U.S. strategic missile defenses focus on the Iranian ICBM threat, that threat is not emerging as was previously predicted. Iran conducted no long-range ballistic missile tests in 2012 and has not flown even the larger space launch vehicle that it displayed two years ago, which could have helped advance ICBM technology. Moreover, Tehran has still not decided to build nuclear weapons and continues to focus on short- and medium-range rather than longer-range ballistic missiles. It is, therefore, time to adapt U.S. missile defense plans accordingly by suspending the fourth phase of the European Phased Adaptive Approach. Doing so would remove an obstacle to negotiating further reductions in the strategic forces of Russia - the only country that poses an unambiguous existential threat to the United States.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Missile Defense, and ICBM
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

4788. Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2010-2013 Report Card

Author:
Kelsey Davenport and Marcus Taylor
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The study, Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2010-2013 Report Card gives grades to China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, India, Israel, Pakistan—each of which possess nuclear weapons—and North Korea—which maintains a nuclear weapons capability—as well as Iran and Syria, which are under investigation for possible nuclear weapons-related activity.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Iran, India, Israel, North Korea, France, Syria, and United States of America

4789. Transnational Civil Society and the Consumer-friendly Turn in Financial Regulation

Author:
Lisa Kastner
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The literature on financial regulation has typically emphasized the role of the powerful financial industry in shaping regulatory outcomes. However, capture theories cannot explain the prominence of financial consumer protection in post-crisis reform agendas. By contrast, this paper argues that, despite their collective action disadvantage, a polymorphous network of civil society organizations was able to gain momentum after the financial crisis and to influence the financial reform process. In this policy window, where decision-makers were looking out for an alternative source of expertise, a transnationally connected civil society network successfully raised the issue of consumer protection on reform agendas in tandem with public entrepreneurs and on the back of a popular backlash against big finance. This argument will be explored through a comparative study of the impact of transnational pressures on policy-makers in Europe and the US in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. In the conclusion, the paper discusses the substance of the financial reforms that have been undertaken.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Regulation, and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

4790. North Korea, Ballistic Missile Defence and Canada-US Defence Cooperation

Author:
Frank Harvey
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
In December 2012, North Korea launched the Unha-3 rocket – a three-stage, intercontinental ballistic missile with an estimated range of 10,000 kilometres. When combined with North Korea’s latest underground nuclear test in January, these moves represent a concerted effort by the regime to develop and deploy an offensive nuclear capability. When acquired, a nuclear tipped intercontinental ballistic missile will provide Pyongyang with a credible deterrent that will seriously diminish our coercive leverage in subsequent military security crises involving North and South Korea. The imperative on the part of the international community to move forward with research, development and deployment of ballistic missile defences (BMD) is becoming more pressing each year. In November 2010, 28 NATO members signed NATO’s new Strategic Concept. The most relevant part of the alliance’s new strategy is the commitment by all NATO members to: “Develop the capability to defend our populations and territories against ballistic missile attack as a core element of our collective defence.” As a NATO member, Canada now officially endorses the logic, strategic utility and security benefits of ballistic missile defence, but, apparently, only in terms of protecting European and American territory and populations. The most perplexing aspect of Canada’s policy is the ongoing refusal to engage in bilateral discussions with our most important NATO ally to negotiate BMD architecture to protect Canadian territory and populations. Canadian officials have the luxury to sit back and let allies protect our territory, but this is a foreign policy strategy that has reached the point of taking free-riding to a new and somewhat disturbing level.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Missile Defense, and Ballistic Missile
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

4791. Is NATO Still Necessary for Canada?

Author:
J. L. Granatstein
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been the most successful military alliance of the modern era. Set up in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union, NATO won the Cold War some four decades later without firing a shot. Perhaps it might have been better if NATO had wound itself up at the end of the Cold War. The alliance instead sought a new role and found it out of area. It conducted operations in Former Yugoslavia, war against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, and later still an air campaign that brought down Gaddafi in Libya. None of these operations were notable successes. In 2011, then U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated that NATO faced “the real possibility [of] a dim, if not dismal future....The military capabilities simply aren’t there." The transatlantic alliance, Gates said, must confront fundamental strategic questions about its future. All this makes a hard look at NATO essential. The European nations can readily handle the defence of their territory, and it is time to ask if NATO is the best way for us to contribute to Western defence, to ask which nations can and will act to protect democratic values? The "Anglosphere" states all fought in Afghanistan. So too did France and Denmark. And in Asia, there are other friendly states. There is no talk of a military alliance yet but there is the possibility of coalitions of the willing. Instead of pledging fealty to NATO's hollow shell, it is time for Canadians to produce a strategy for the next twenty years. Any such review will give primacy to Canada’s alliance with the United States. But one question must be asked and answered: does NATO any longer serve our political and military needs?
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

4792. Exigencies of Future Deployments: What Canada must Exact from its Military Partners

Author:
Hugh Segal and Jessica McLean
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
An increase in global threats, failing states, and crisis prone regions around the world, coupled with shrinking defence budgets in the US, as well as budget cuts in Canada’s most loyal joint deployment partners – France, the UK, and The Netherlands – indicates there will be no less of a demand for Canadian deployable capacity over the next few years. In this context, understanding the ‘political’ requirements for various kinds of deployments is important and a key planning area for defence policy makers as well as military and strategic practitioners. To better understand the future of Canadian military deployments it is first necessary to examine the historical context of our post-war NATO and UN deployments as well as Prime Minister Harper’s 2006 commitment that required all significant military deployments to have parliamentary approval. Each deployment since WW II has been unique. The command structures, intelligence-sharing, mission design and assigned areas of responsibility for Canada, whether under the UN or NATO, have varied by the deployment itself and the nature of the mission. This requires our political and command requirements to adapt to the mission at hand. But whether or not Canada will participate in future deployments relies on not just being able to answer the question of “why”, but also “why us”. Reticence on the part of NATO allies will continue to be a problem in the future and so Canada must be capable to ensure it only takes part in “coalition of the willing” deployments to ensure realistic burden sharing. The pivot towards the Pacific will also require fresh and deeper intelligence cooperation with Australia, other Commonwealth partners in the region and enhanced interoperable capacity with our American allies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Troop Deployment, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

4793. Cybersecurity in Russian-U.S. Relations

Author:
Pavel Sharikov
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
Threats to cyberspace and to information security are emerging as central elements of Russian-U.S. security relations. As much as U.S. officials have expressed concerns about Russian-sponsored cyber-activities, Russia is equally concerned about U.S. military intentions in the cyber domain. Differing definitions of what activities pose a threat complicates relations on this issue. While the United States is concerned primarily with threats to technology and economic well-being, Russia is also concerned about activities that threaten interference in Russian sovereign affairs. Russian concerns have been heightened by repeated U.S. rebuffs on draft U.N. resolutions to address some threats. U.S. and NATO pronouncements about the need for collective defense against cyberattacks have raised similar concerns. Ongoing Russian-U.S. cooperation at the highest level demonstrates that the states recognize the common interests at stake, but officials will have to work on a mutually beneficial basis to make any level of cooperation work.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, and Information Security
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

4794. Media Coverage of Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Jonas Siegel
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
The manner in which news media frame their coverage of Iran’s nuclear program is critically important to public understanding and to policy decisions that will determine whether the dispute can be resolved without war. News coverage of the lead-up to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and of the justifications of that invasion was found to have had a profound, distorting effect on public understanding and the decision to go to war. Is news media coverage having a similar effect on U.S. and international discussions about Iran’s nuclear program? If so, how exactly is the framing of the dispute and the broader approach of news media to covering this issue affecting the choices available to policy makers? And how is coverage likely to affect the dispute’s outcome?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Power, Media, and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

4795. Asia's Uncertain Future: Korea, China's Aggressiveness, and New Leadership - Full Issue

Author:
Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
For over twenty years, the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) invited leading Korea and Asia scholars and experts from around the world to its annual academic symposium. Starting in 2012, KEI embarked on a new initiative to revamp this series by partnering with the Association of Asian Studies (AAS) to incorporate the symposium into the AAS annual conference. To this end, KEI organized four conference panels, advertised KEI’s outreach work to over 3,000 conference participants at AAS, and raised the profile of the Institute on a global stage. As before, KEI edited, compiled and published the research papers presented by the distinguished speakers at the symposium as part of its Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies series. Part of this new endeavor is the involvement of Dr. Gilbert Rozman, the Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University. As the Editor-in-Chief for this Joint U.S.- Korea Academic Studies volume, his knowledge and work with the authors is visible throughout this publication. Dr. Rozman also helped KEI organize four timely and topical panels at the AAS conference. His involvement is part of KEI’s constant effort to bring our subscribers high quality and informative resources on issues impacting the U.S.-Republic of Korea relationship. The events and actions in Northeast Asia continue to have important implications for the future of the region. Many of these interactions have both bilateral and multilateral effects, which our authors examine in four themes. The rise of the Asia-Pacific region is characterized by both an increase in cooperation and competition among countries, and our experts look at this dynamic through key bilateral relationships. Moreover, economics has been a vital driver of cooperation in Asia, and this volume examines this continuing trend with the development of the China-Japan-Korea trilateral relationship and the possibility of a free trade agreement among the three countries. We have a section that further analyzes the national identity aspects of the U.S.-China relationship and how national identity issues are often at the core of how other countries view themselves in the region compared to that huge bilateral relationship. Lastly, one section looks at the ever-looming question of reunification on the Korean Peninsula. As you can see, all of these are important areas for understanding and succeeding in an Asia-Pacific century.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and United States of America

4796. EU Privacy Regulation: Implications for U.S. and EI Law Enforcement

Author:
Carlton Forbes and Jacob Victor
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
In January 2012, the European Commission released drafts of two new pieces of legislation that would provide more stringent and more uniform regulation to the processing of electronic data relating to EU citizens. The proposed General Data Protection Regulation would govern the processing of data for general purposes, while the proposed Criminal Justice Directive would govern data processed in the specific context of criminal investigations. The Data Protection Regulation has proven controversial because of the significant number of requirements it imposes on private data processors, including requirements that the processor notify a consumer when her data is shared with a third party, and requirements that processors respect a number of new individual rights, such as the right of a consumer to request that her data be deleted (a.k.a. “the right to be forgotten”). Furthermore, the Regulation would mandate that many non-EU corporations would need to comply with its requirements when processing the data of EU citizens, or face harsh penalties. This memo summarizes the existing EU data protection regime, analyzes the changes proposed by the new Data Protection Regulation and Criminal Justice Directive, and explores the implications of this new legislation for U.S. criminal and national security investigations. We arrive at three main conclusions
Topic:
Law Enforcement, Law, European Union, Regulation, and Legal Theory
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

4797. UNCLOS Dispute Settlement in Context: The United States’ Record in International Arbitration Proceedings

Author:
Julia Brower, Christina Koningisor, Ryan Liss, and Michael Shih
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
The United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) establishes a compulsory dispute settlement regime for resolving disagreements between member states. Critics of the Convention have argued that the mandatory dispute resolution provisions force member states to cede too much control over the dispute resolution process to an international body. They have also argued that the dispute resolution process is biased against the United States, and that the United States tends to fare poorly in international arbitration proceedings. This report addresses the first criticism by examining possible exceptions to mandatory dispute resolution provisions. At least one Annex VII tribunal has interpreted Article 281(1) of UNCLOS to permit states to contract around the mandatory dispute resolution provision through regional agreements. However, a subsequent tribunal applied a much more constrained interpretation of the Article 281 exception. Ultimately, the impact of this exception will depend upon which interpretation is applied. The report also examines the scope of the Article 298(1)(c) exception, which exempts from binding resolution “disputes in respect of which the Security Council . . . is exercising the functions assigned to it by the [U.N.] Charter.” This exception is not confined to specific subject matters, but it is limited by the procedural difficulties of adding or removing an item from the Security Council’s agenda, as well as by the political costs that such an effort entails. Finally, the report notes that UNCLOS’s compulsory dispute settlement regime is not accompanied by similarly robust enforcement provisions. The report addresses the second criticism by examining the United States’ record in arbitration proceedings under eighteen multilateral treaties containing mandatory dispute resolution provisions, as well as a series of bilateral aviation agreements that provide for mandatory dispute resolution. Fifteen of those agreements have yielded very few readily identifiable arbitration proceedings involving the United States.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Legal Theory, and Arbitration
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4798. Internationally Protected Persons: The Status of Consular Employees

Author:
Ryan Liss
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
This memorandum considers whether consular employees and their family members constitute “internationally protected persons” (IPPs) under 18 U.S.C. § 112. In addition, the memorandum briefly considers whether an assault against the child of a consular employee abroad meets the jurisdictional nexus requirements of 18 U.S.C. § 112, such that the assault could be prosecuted in U.S. courts. It concludes that existing U.S. and foreign law and state practice do not provide a definitive definition of IPPs that either clearly includes or excludes consular employees. Moreover, the status of a consular employee’s child is similarly unclear, as the status of consular employees’ family members depends on that of the employee. However, while a definitive answer is not provided, the travaux preparatoires of the relevant treaties and one U.S. decision at least suggest that consular employees are excluded from the definition of IPPs. Part I explains that the applicable U.S. statutory provisions do not provide an exhaustive definition of who constitutes an IPP. The statute relies instead on the definition of IPPs at international law. In addition, there are no U.S. cases directly on point, so the existing case law does not foreclose the possibility that a consular employee might qualify as an IPP. However, the court’s logic in one case, United States v. Marcano-Garcia,2 which relied on the assault victim’s status as honorary consul under the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations in determining his IPP status, suggests that a consular employee would not fall within the definition. The exclusion of consular employees from the definition of IPPs is also arguably supported by the international treaties that 18 U.S.C. § 112 was drafted to implement, as well as those treaties’ travaux préparatoires. Part II looks to foreign and international law. There are indications in statements made via United Nations reporting processes that some states regard themselves as obligated to protect consular employees. But these statements are vague and are not supported by a similar trend in foreign domestic legislation or foreign case law. Part III shows that even if a consular employee and his or her child qualify as IPPs, the jurisdictional nexus under 18 U.S.C. § 112 must be met. For American courts to exercise jurisdiction in this case, the provision requires that the accused either be a U.S. national or be present on U.S. territory. Having concluded that the law does not support a definitive conclusion regarding whether a consular employee qualifies as an IPP, Part IV concludes by discussing policy considerations both in favor of and against extending such protection to consular employees.
Topic:
Law, Legal Theory, Protected People, and Diplomatic Immunity
Political Geography:
United States of America and North America

4799. US-Russian Partnership for Advancing a Nuclear Security Agenda

Author:
Anton Khlopkov
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States and the Russian Federation have engaged in bilateral and multilateral nuclear security efforts to secure nuclear materials and facilities in the region. This cooperation contributed to nuclear security globally and developed various tools, mechanisms, and approaches that need to be fully utilized by the international community. As new nuclear security challenges emerge, the implementation of sustainable nuclear security measures is constrained by limited expertise and resources, particularly in some key regions. For this reason, the application of US-Russian expertise and experience in cooperative threat reduction is essential to successful implementation of the global nuclear security agenda. Researchers investigate nuclear security challenges in other countries and regions—specifically in Southeast Asia and the former Soviet states of Central Asia—and examine possible ways by which the lessons learned from US-Russian nuclear security cooperation over the past two decades can be a
Topic:
Security, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Nuclear Safety
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Post-Soviet Europe

4800. A New Narrative for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Dana White
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Former Congressional staff, Dana White, presents a new narrative for the U.S. – Japan alliance. The report addresses the Futenma issue and reallocation of U.S. forces in Japan as well as new areas for non-traditional security cooperation. In the Asian century, the fates of Japan and the United States are inextricably linked. Tokyo and Washington collaboration must adopt a whole of government approach to fare well in this century.
Topic:
Government, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and United States of America