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551. Desecuritizing the Belarusian Balcony: Principles for U.S.–Belarus Relations

Author:
Mark Episkopos
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
This brief outlines a low-cost, low-risk roadmap for sustained U.S. engagement with Belarus that could help to stabilize NATO’s volatile eastern flank, enabling the U.S. to retrench from the European continent and focus on other theaters. In light of governance concerns voiced by Western officials on the heels of the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, and especially since Belarus provided support to Russian troops in the opening weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the E.U. and U.S. have adopted a strictly punitive approach to Belarus. Essentially, Belarus has been viewed as an appendage of Russia. However, this approach misses opportunities for the West to take advantage of inherent divisions between the interests of Belarus and Russia. As outlined in previous Quincy Institute research, President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus has long wished to develop a “multi-vector” foreign policy for his country. Such a policy would permit Belarus to maneuver between the East and West to best safeguard its own national sovereignty and interests. While Belarus has moved significantly closer to Russia in recent years, this pivot has in part been in reaction to Western hostility. Lukashenko likely remains open to some degree of cooperation with the West, and has signaled that he does not wish to increase participation in the Russia–Ukraine War. While it is almost certainly impossible to fully remove Belarus from the Russian camp, exploring ways for Belarus to triangulate between Russia and the West could offer significant benefits for U.S. interests and for regional stability. This brief recommends that the Trump administration explore the following bargain with Belarus: In exchange for a Belarusian commitment not to abet, facilitate, or engage in aggression against any NATO state, the U.S. should promise that it will not engage in any effort at an external change of government in Belarus. To firm up the U.S.–Belarus relationship, the U.S. should consider sectoral sanctions relief, including in the Belarusian civilian aviation sector, and U.S. engagement in other non-military investment opportunities, such as the Belarusian electric vehicle industry. The U.S. should also work to restore Belarus’ access to international financial institutions. The U.S. should mediate border issues between Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania toward the goal of deescalation on NATO’s eastern flank. The U.S. should encourage Belarusian efforts both to facilitate Russia–Ukraine peace talks, such as exchanges of prisoners of war and bodies of fallen soldiers, and to contribute to Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, North America, Belarus, and United States of America

552. The U.S. and Mexico: A Special Relationship

Author:
Karthik Sankaran
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
President Trump’s policies carry risks and opportunities for one of the United States’ most vital relationships — that with Mexico. U.S. actions that cause cooperation to break down could damage both prosperity and security in the United States. Alternatively, both the U.S. and Mexico could strengthen cooperation rooted in national interests, allowing deeper linkages that benefit the U.S. economy, enhance stability in Mexico, and alleviate security challenges on the border. Across all trade relationships, the administration appears to seek simultaneously to: repatriate industrial production and employment back to the U.S. (reshoring); open new markets for U.S. investment and exports; construct more geopolitically secure supply lines (nearshoring); limit security threats to the homeland. These aims are not mutually exclusive, and all could be achieved if pursued in a balanced manner. But in the case of Mexico, the U.S. does not appear to be striking this balance. The lack of predictability in trade policy, and the failure to use tools available through existing agreements such as the U.S.–Mexico–Canada–Agreement, or USMCA, are creating contradictory signals and leading the U.S. to leave opportunities on the table. If the administration sends contradictory signals on its trade policy with Mexico, the likely result will be a significant increase in business uncertainty. Beyond the potentially damaging economic effects on U.S. investment decisions, this could have geopolitical consequences, hindering efforts to ensure politically and geographically resilient supply chains. It could also damage the Mexican economy in ways that potentially strengthen organized crime. To simultaneously advance the four key U.S. objectives — restoring manufacturing jobs; building geographically resilient supply chains; gaining economic policy concessions from Mexico; and enhancing the political stability of a neighbor critical to U.S. security — the brief recommends that the Trump administration: recognize Mexican President Sheinbaum’s popularity and openness to compromise as an opportunity to deepen the economic relationship rather than sever it; use the unique legal and institutional features of USMCA to advance the interests of both countries, particularly the improvement of labor conditions and the nearshoring of manufacturing; use diplomacy and USMCA mechanisms to leverage U.S. energy expertise and deepen U.S. investment in Mexico’s renewable energy sector; encourage deeper U.S. investment and engagement in sectors of the Mexican economy other than manufacturing, such as entertainment, retail, financial services, tourism, and healthcare; recognize that economic dealmaking lends itself to security cooperation.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economy, Investment, Manufacturing, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

553. Taiwan: An Important but Non-Vital U.S. Interest

Author:
Michael D. Swaine
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Taiwan is the most likely flashpoint that could trigger a direct war between the United States and China. It is critical, therefore, to examine whether or not Taiwan constitutes a vital U.S. interest. This brief asserts that Taiwan is an important but not vital U.S. interest. It is not an interest that justifies the United States going to war with China to defend. A direct war between the United States and China would be cataclysmic and cause extraordinary damage to the global economy. It would risk heavy U.S. military losses and possible nuclear escalation. It is also unclear whether the United States would prevail. Taiwan must be a truly vital interest to justify such risks. While it is important to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan and prevent a regional war that would destabilize East Asia, proponents of a U.S. defense of Taiwan by all means necessary exaggerate Taiwan’s strategic value and China’s military threat to East Asia. Taiwan is neither central to America’s ability to ensure a stable and prosperous Asia open to U.S. economic and political engagement nor is it a critical location for the United States to oppose Chinese hegemony in Asia. China views Taiwan primarily through a political lens. Beijing has not expressed the intent to use the annexation of the island as a stepping stone toward regional hegemony. Moreover, possession of Taiwan would not give China that capacity. The United States is not formally obligated to militarily defend Taiwan, in contrast to its security commitments to treaty allies Japan and South Korea. Washington does have a vital interest in maintaining its security commitments to Tokyo and Seoul — two robust economies and major technology innovators that are each more critical geostrategically than Taiwan. Taiwan does possess considerable value in its high-tech capabilities, producing 60 percent of the world’s most sophisticated semiconductors. But replicating this production capacity in the United States and other Western countries would be far less costly than fighting a war with China over Taiwan. Although Taiwan is not a vital interest justifying war and is not a treaty ally, the United States still has a strong interest in preventing Chinese coercion of this U.S.–aligned democracy. An accompanying brief presents an alternative approach to supporting Taiwan while maintaining U.S. credibility with critical Asian allies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Deterrence, Strategic Interests, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

554. Is Liberalism as an Ideological Assumption Over?

Author:
Marlène Laruelle
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Much ink has been spilled debating the implications of the results of the U.S. November 2024 elections. In Europe, following the June 2024 elections, more than 40 far-right parties hold seats in the European Parliament, a growth from 25 the previous term. The far right also managed to increase its vote share in nine out of the 13 European states that held legislative elections in 2024.1 Compared to a decade ago, analysts understand that these events are not exceptional mo- ments, glitches in the system, or accidents of history. Nonetheless, many still prioritize short-term explanations such as, in the United States’ case, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ weak campaign performance, high levels of inflation, and unprecedented influxes of irregular migration. Others attribute far-right victories to either morally unacceptable sentiments such as racism and xenophobia or brainwashing via fake news and social media propaganda—whether through X (in the United States’ case and in Germany’s February 2025 elections)2 or TikTok (as in Romania’s first round of presidential elections).3 In both cases, these explanations provide moral reassurance: only citizens with bad intentions, victims of propaganda, or those unable to appreciate lib- eralism’s idealistic goals could vote for the far right. However, these arguments are insufficient in understanding the wave of rejection that societal order seems to be arousing amongst citizens. If one thinks that Donald Trump won only because his voters are systemic racists or susceptible to fake news, then one does not see that he may have won because his political program spoke to a multiracial coalition of blue-collar and white-collar voters and resonated with a growing number of Hispanics and young African American men.4 Our interpretation of Trump’s victory impacts the search for solutions: in the first scenario, the Democrats are not held responsible for their defeat; in the second, they must engage in a deep rethinking of their political platform. Far-right electoral gains are no accidents of history. Illiberal leaders and parties have expanded electorally worldwide in many countries beyond the United States and Europe in varying cultural contexts, such as in Turkey, India, the Philippines, and El Salvador. This suggests that the explanation for their success must be found in structural transformations of our socioeconomic and political landscape, not in one-off sets of issues or grievances. To truly understand the rise of illiberalism, citizens and activists anxious to defend liberal demo- cratic principles must analyze these broader systemic evolutions be- fore discussing what they mean for our vision of liberalism. They should grasp why these systemic challenges have so far been more successfully addressed, electorally speaking, by the right than by the left. The main argument of this paper is that liberalism’s cultural hegemony is over, and those defending liberal principles must recognize that they are now in genuine competition with other political ideologies. To this end, they must abandon the notion that liberalism represents “common sense,” while its op- ponents embody “nonsense.” Ironically, this very contrast is mirrored by illiberal voters, who see their recent electoral success as a return to politics grounded in reality and opposing liberal “wokeness.”
Topic:
Politics, Culture, Elections, Ideology, Voting, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

555. Global Public Opinion and the Growth of Right-Wing Populism

Author:
Richard Wike
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The “super year” of elections in 2024 was unprecedented in voting history, with citizens in more than 60 countries going to the polls. While it was generally a difficult year for incumbents, it was a strong one for challengers, including several from the populist right. Leveraging economic frustrations, divisive cultural issues, and anger at a political class perceived to be out of touch with ordinary citizens, right-wing populist leaders and parties made gains at the ballot box in several nations, building on the growing success they have seen in recent years.1 One of the most high-profile results in 2024 was Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris in the United States presidential election, which returned the leader of the populist “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement to the White House after four years of Demo- cratic control. Right-wing populists also gained ground in European parlia- mentary elections. Austria’s Freedom Party, for example, had its best election result ever. The Alternative for Germany Party became the first far-right political party to win a state election in the country since World War II. And even though the cordon sanitaire—a bargain among political parties to keep the far right out of governing coalitions—ultimately kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally out of power in France, the party nonetheless increased the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly. Parties on the right did well outside Europe and the United States too. For example, El Salvador’s incumbent President Nayib Bukele won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote, buoyed by strong support for his crackdown on criminal gangs. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto won the presidential election amid public concerns about his human rights record. And—though forced to form a coalition government for the first time—Indian Prime Min- ister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive victory, and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which captured 240 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, remains a dominant force in the country’s politics.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, Populism, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
India, Global Focus, and United States of America

556. Asean y la UE. Estrategias y oportunidades para Indonesia y España

Author:
Dayu Nirma Amurwanti and Alodia Pérez
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Este documento analiza el potencial de fortalecer las relaciones entre la Unión Europea (UE) y la ASEAN, destacando el rol estratégico de España e Indonesia. Ambos bloques comparten valores como el multilateralismo y enfrentan desafíos comunes como el cambio climático, la tensión entre EE. UU. y China, y la necesidad de integración comercial. España e Indonesia, potencias marítimas y economías emergentes, pueden liderar iniciativas en defensa, comercio, digitalización, educación e innovación. Se propone revitalizar la cooperación bilateral, avanzar en nuevos acuerdos de defensa y vigilancia marítima. Además, se destaca la urgencia de concluir el Acuerdo de Asociación Económica UE-Indonesia, promoviendo el comercio y la inversión verde. En educación y cultura, se plantea intensificar los intercambios universitarios e investigaciones conjuntas. Finalmente, se sugiere elevar la relación bilateral a una Asociación Estratégica y fomentar una agenda común en foros multilaterales para un orden global más justo y cooperativo.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Multilateralism, and Industry
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, Spain, United States of America, and ASEAN

557. Iran’s Cryptocurrency Economy in Crisis: Financial Implications of Cyberattacks on the Nobitex Exchange

Author:
Avi Davidi
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Iranian regime is currently grappling with an unprecedented economic and energy crisis that is directly impacting its domestic, regional, and international policies. One of the clearest manifestations of this crisis is the severe damage inflicted on the financial system during the war with Israel—particularly in the sphere of cryptocurrencies. Cyberattacks targeted both central banks and Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, from which approximately $90 million was stolen in a June 2025 cyberattack. As a result, crypto trading volume in Iran fell by about 70 percent in July 2025 compared to the previous year. In addition, Israeli and U.S. authorities have recently taken measures against Iranian financing infrastructures that rely on cryptocurrencies. In September 2025, Israel’s National Bureau for Counter-Terror Financing (NBCTF) announced the addresses of 187 USDT wallets it had identified as belonging to the IRGC.[1] Following the disclosure, the UK-based compliance firm Elliptic published an analysis showing that these wallets had received $1.5 billion in USDT. The analysis noted, however, that it could not determine whether the funds had in fact been used by the IRGC.[2] At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department issued designations against a broad Iranian oil-export network that was evading American sanctions. This network employed a wide array of front companies operating in multiple countries to facilitate illicit trade in Iranian oil. According to the announcement, two Iranian nationals played a central role in the scheme by purchasing roughly $100 million worth of cryptocurrencies between 2023 and 2025 as payment to the Iranian government for oil. The network’s cryptocurrency fundraising activity was also used by the regime to transfer money to Hezbollah-linked entities, thereby contributing not only to sanctions evasion but also directly to the financing of terrorism.[3] This paper examines the consequences of the June 2025 cyberattack on Nobitex for Iran’s ability to rely on cryptocurrencies to preserve economic and social stability, as well as to facilitate strategic trade—including in security and military components—at a time of continued international sanctions. The developments in Iran’s crypto sector highlight its growing importance for the Iranian economy—both for those seeking to evade the international sanctions regime, including regime actors such as the IRGC and oil traders, and for ordinary citizens trying to preserve the value of their savings. At the same time, they underscore the vulnerabilities and problems inherent in relying on cryptocurrencies, as well as the importance of U.S. and Israeli efforts to address this system in order to prevent its illicit use by the regime and to undermine it.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Economy, Cryptocurrencies, Economic Crisis, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

558. Qatar Positions Itself as Washington’s Preferred Mediator

Author:
Ariel Admoni
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
From Congo to Gaza, Doha positions itself as indispensable to U.S. policy, even as it sustains ties to terrorist organizations
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, Qatar, and United States of America

559. Democracy at a Crossroads: How Americans View Trump’s First 100 Days in Office

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
Executive Summary Relatively few voters regret their decision in November; however, three in ten non-voters regret not turning out to vote last fall. Nearly all Americans who voted for Kamala Harris (95%) and Donald Trump (92%) are satisfied with their decision to vote or how they voted, as well as 85% of those who voted for another candidate. Thirty-one percent of non-voting Americans say they regret their decision not to vote, compared with 56% who say they are satisfied. Just around four in ten Americans (43%) approve of the job that Trump is doing as president. Roughly four in ten Americans (43%) approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, while a majority (54%) disapprove. White Christian groups are the most likely to approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, including three in four white evangelical Protestants (76%), compared with one-third or fewer of other religious Americans. While Trump gets slightly higher marks for his handling of immigration (48% of Americans approve), just four in ten approve of his handling of the economy (41%) and Russia’s war with Ukraine (40%). White Christian groups are significantly more likely than Christians of color, non-Christians, and unaffiliated Americans to approve of the job that Trump is doing handling immigration, including most white evangelical Protestants (78%), Latter-day Saints (65%), white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants (64%), and white Catholics (63%). While just four in ten Americans have favorable views of Trump, fewer view either Vice President JD Vance or presidential advisor Elon Musk favorably. Four in ten Americans (40%) express favorable views of Trump, including 83% of Republicans, 35% of independents, and 8% of Democrats. White Americans, men, older generations, and those who do not have a four-year degree hold significantly more favorable views of Trump than non-white Americans, women, millennials, Gen Zers, and those who are college-educated. Roughly one-third of Americans have a favorable view of Vance (35%), compared with half of those who hold an unfavorable opinion (50%). Most Americans (58%) view Musk unfavorably. Musk holds less favorable views among Republicans than Trump, 71% vs. 83%. Americans are more likely to view Trump as a dangerous dictator than a strong leader restoring America’s greatness, although such views are polarized along partisan and religious lines. A majority of Americans agree that “President Trump is a dangerous dictator whose power should be limited before he destroys American democracy” (52%), compared with 44% who agree that “President Trump is a strong leader who should be given the power he needs to restore America’s greatness.” Most Democrats (87%) agree with the first statement, while most Republicans (81%) agree with the second statement. Around seven in ten Christian nationalism Adherents (73%) and Sympathizers (70%) view Trump as a strong leader who should be given the power to restore America’s greatness, compared with 46% of Christian nationalism Skeptics and just 15% of Rejecters. Among Americans who voted for Trump and regret their decision, 55% agree that Trump is a dangerous dictator; agreement that Trump is a dangerous dictator is even higher among non-voters who regret their decision not to vote (68%).
Topic:
Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

560. Abortion Views Across All 50 States: Key Insights from PRRI’s 2024 American Values Atlas

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
In 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults as part of its American Values Atlas, offering a detailed analysis of Americans’ views on the legality of abortion. The report also explores the relationship between religiosity and abortion laws across states.
Topic:
Religion, Law, Public Opinion, Domestic Politics, and Abortion
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

561. A Tale of Three Rights? Understanding How Republicans Are Changing under Trump

Author:
Thibault Muzergues
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump has reshaped the Republican Party – and more generally US conservatism – to an extent and in ways that were unthinkable in 2015, when he first emerged as a serious candidate for the presidential primaries. To understand that, we only have to get back to 2012, when the Republican consensus on issues like free trade and immigration was literally opposite to what it is now. Back then, the party supported free trade without reservations and recognised a need for (controlled) immigration. Meanwhile, the Bush family held significant sway, with Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and son and brother of the last two Republican presidents, considered a frontrunner for the 2016 presidential nomination. Fast forward to the present, and the Republican Party has undergone a dramatic shift under Trump’s influence. Today, being pro-free trade or pro-immigration is almost unthinkable for a Republican candidate in any primary. In the same way, the foreign-policy outlook of the party has drastically changed: dominated by hawks and neo-conservatives in the past, it is now much more influenced by isolationist and inward-looking imperialist elements (those have always existed within the party, but had been marginal in the past, in particular during the George W. Bush years in the early 2000s). Much like it previously did with the Bush family, the party now aligns more closely with Trump’s vision and family influence – exemplified by the personal loyalty tests that are now required for any would-be candidate for office to subscribe to in order to have the president’s support. This is not to say that everything has changed. The Republican Party remains socially conservative, advocating for example anti-abortion policies and low direct taxes. Seen from this angle, the litmus test of what makes (or does not make) one a conservative has not changed. However, Trump has reshaped the party’s priorities and values in significant ways, and will continue to do so. The Republican Party that emerged from the 2024 elections is distinct from the one that lost in 2020 or won the trifecta – presidency, Senate and House – in 2016. To outsiders, especially Europeans, Trumpism may appear as a monolithic structure, an image Trump has sometimes reinforced. However, the US president’s success (and popularity) lies in managing a coalition of diverse interests and ideologies. Trump’s coalition includes disparate groups like tech entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley looking forward to a bright future and former steel workers in Youngstown Ohio, looking back with nostalgia to a past that they would like to re-create. Some members of this coalition are organising and seek to apply an ideological lens to Trump’s instincts, in order to define the future of Trumpism beyond the current presidency. It is therefore extremely important to understand how the current Trumpian coalition functions – if we then want to understand where it is headed. Currently, the coalition ruling the party can be divided into three main groups: MAGA-World, the tech-libertarians, and the Country-Club Republicans.
Topic:
Donald Trump, Political Parties, Domestic Policy, and Republican Party
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

562. Europe’s Nuclear Alternatives: A Time of Reckoning Autori

Author:
Polina Sinovets and Adérito Vicente
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe faces an increasingly urgent need to reconsider its dependence on US extended nuclear deterrence, particularly in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the United States’ strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific. Europe’s potential to build credible deterrent capabilities of its own is limited to three alternatives: the strengthening of France’s force de frappe as a European pillar, the creation of an Anglo-French nuclear umbrella and the establishment of a European Multilateral Nuclear Force within NATO. The best course of action for Europe is to follow a balanced approach that enhances European autonomy while safeguarding transatlantic cohesion, with NATO establishing a structured dialogue on Europe’s nuclear future.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, France, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

563. The new power model and United States national defence agility

Author:
Stephen Willis
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This scholarly article provides a comprehensive analysis of how Heimans and Timms’s (Heimans, J. and Timms, H. (2018) New power: How power works in our hyperconnected world—and how to make it work for you. New York, NY: Doubleday) principles of “new power” can be applied to enhance the agility and effectiveness of United States national defence strategies and policies. The analysis underscores the critical importance of fostering collective intelligence, adaptability, flexibility, transparency, and inclusion within the operations and decision-making processes of the US military, emphasising transparency and inclusion is crucial in promoting open source and open information exchange that involves service members and defence leaders at all levels in decision-making. This study presents compelling examples of how embracing new power dynamics can improve the agility of US national security efforts in terms of strategies and policies. Improved agility will potentially save lives and provide a competitive advantage over our adversaries. Additionally, the article highlights the significance of adaptability and flexibility in navigating the rapidly changing global landscape, underscoring the need for the US military to adapt to shifting power dynamics and embrace agility as a critical element in achieving success in the face of modern security challenges. Finally, this research delves into two critical areas: First, we explore a new power model for enhancing the agility of US national defence. Second, we discuss how the new power model can facilitate agile decisionmaking for US intelligence, specifically through the practice of open-source Intelligence. We conclude that making American national defence agile in its policies and strategies requires not only the application of new power principles and concepts, as Heimans and Timms (2018) understand them, but also the ability to apply new power in nuanced, incremental, and thoughtful ways that will allow for transformation of the defence and policy-making apparatus in a way that will be accepted and understood by policymakers and service members and leaders themselves.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Intelligence, International Security, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

564. Interstate Highways and Urban Blight: Evidence from Administrative Housing Data

Author:
Thomas Walter
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper estimates the effects of the Interstate Highway System on proximate urban neighborhoods using detailed American Housing Survey data from the 35 most-populous US metropolitan areas. I begin by identifying seven adverse housing conditions and measuring their prevalence with respect to the observational housing units’ distance to the nearest Interstate. I then use weighted linear regressions to estimate the change in likelihood for the presence of each adverse condition when a housing unit is near an Interstate. I find that housing units within one kilometer of an Interstate are 50% more likely to report being near abandoned buildings, 43% more likely to report serious crime in their neighborhood, and 21% more likely to be deemed inadequate. Furthermore, residents of these Interstate-proximate units are 53% and 41% more likely to report dissatisfaction with their neighborhood and housing unit, respectively. To support these estimates by accounting for the fact that Interstates were often intentionally built through marginalized communities, I also employ an instrumental variable approach. My results provide new evidence and stylized facts on the Interstate system as a locus of urban blight.
Topic:
Transportation, Cities, Quality of Life, Housing, Neighborhoods, and Highway System
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

565. Rebuilding U.S. Zinc Capacity in an Era of Global Competition

Author:
Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Zinc ranks as the fourth-most widely used metal worldwide. In addition to its primary application in steel galvanization, refin­ing zinc also produces gallium and germanium—key inputs for advanced semiconductors and defense technologies. However, amid falling ore grades and limited exploration, the United States remains heavily dependent on zinc imports. Once a global hub for zinc processing, the United States now lacks sufficient refining capacity, importing over 70 percent of its refined zinc. There is an opportunity to rebuild domestic, vertically integrated zinc supply chains and reduce reliance on China, but this will demand deliberate action. Bolstering U.S. resilience will require scaling up domestic mining and refining, strategically deploying tariffs, encouraging private investment, promoting price stability, and deepening partnerships with allied nations.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Trade, Strategic Competition, Industry, Economic Security, Energy, Critical Minerals, and Zinc
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

566. Why deterrence needs dialogue and détente

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
Abstract:
Since at least the time of the Greeks and the Romans it has been conventional wisdom that if you want peace prepare for war. Strong defences, military capabilities and demonstrating resolve can deter an enemy that might have thoughts of attack. American presidents from George Washington to Ronald Reagan (and even Donald Trump) have promoted the security benefits of “peace through strength”. Such logic will no doubt dominate security doctrines for the foreseeable future. But paradoxically, pure deterrence can be potentially destabilizing. Lack of communication with opponents can deepen distrust, create misperceptions and increase the risk of miscalculation. Therefore, at a time of high tensions in international relations, it is vital to retain some aspects of dialogue and détente if deterrence is to be credible and effective.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Deterrence, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
United States of America

567. Climate Ambition and Electricity Affordability: Lessons from Connecticut

Author:
Noah Kaufman
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Rising electricity prices are an obstacle to climate action in many US states. Continuing to pursue ambitious decarbonization goals while ensuring affordable electricity to residents and businesses will require bold policy shifts, with solutions that differ across regions. This report explores specific challenges to decarbonization and electricity affordability in Connecticut, as well as opportunities to decarbonize more affordably. Connecticut has among the highest electricity prices in the nation and a binding commitment to achieve 100 percent zero-carbon electricity by 2040.
Topic:
Climate Change, Electricity, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Connecticut

568. Purple Rain: Temperamental Politics and Budgets in Arizona

Author:
Max Goshert, Janica Murphy, Samira Amin, Mo Abouelenin, and Amber Chisholm
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Arizona’s evolving political landscape has become a key factor in its fiscal outlook. Once a solid Republican stronghold, the state has shifted to swing status, as seen in President Joe Biden's narrow 0.3% margin win in the 2020 election and a closely divided state legislature. Strong economic growth in prior years led to FY23 General Fund revenues being revised upwards from $15.9 billion to $17.9 billion. Despite this, declining tax revenues and increased spending, particularly on a universal school voucher program, created a projected $1.71 billion deficit for FY25. The state's Republican-led legislature implemented a 2.5% flat income tax and expanded school vouchers, significantly impacting revenue. To address the deficit, the FY25 budget, finalized at $16.8 billion, included cuts to many programs, most notably a $430 million reduction in the Arizona Water Infrastructure and Financing Authority. The political status quo remained consistent after the 2024 election, where Republicans won a marginal gain in both chambers of the state legislature, Democrats kept control of the U.S. Senate seat up for reelection, and the U.S. House seats remained at 6–3 for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. This report examines the fiscal trajectory, proposed tax policy changes, and political state driving Arizona’s FY25 budget negotiations.
Topic:
Politics, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Arizona, and United States of America

569. Oregon’s 2024 Legislative Session and Budget: From Incivility to Civility

Author:
Brent S. Steel and Emily Mooney
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The 2024 Oregon legislative session, spanning a concise 35-day period, marked a return to bipartisan collaboration resulting in significant policy advancements. Major reforms enacted include the implementation of campaign finance limits, modifications to drug decriminalization policies, and the introduction of a substantial housing initiative by Governor Tina Kotek. These actions stand in contrast to the previous year's divisive Republican walkout, which had halted legislative proceedings in protest against proposed bills on gun control, education, and climate change. This walkout led to a new ballot measure that penalized unexcused absences among legislators, threatening the ability of boycotting members to run for re-election. Despite the prior tensions, the 2024 session was distinguished by cooperation, as evidenced by both parties acknowledging its historic success in achieving policy goals. The budget passed on June 25, 2023, outlined a total of $121.264 billion for the 2023-25 period, reflecting a decrease from the previous budget due to a reduction in Federal Funds, counterbalanced by an increase in the General Fund and Lottery Funds. Detailed resource allocations were influenced by the May 2023 revenue forecast, with specific adjustments made during the 2024 session to align with the biennium's objectives.
Topic:
Reform, Budget, Public Policy, Polarization, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Oregon

570. The 2023 Nevada Budget: Record Surpluses, Cautious Optimism, and Bipartisan Support for K-12 Education and State Employees

Author:
Brad Johnson and David Damore
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In June of 2023, the Nevada Legislature passed the state’s 2023-2025 budget. Buoyed by continued increases in the state’s share of the sales taxes and revenue tied to gaming, entertainment, and tourism as well as business activity, the $10.9 billion general fund budget was the largest in Nevada’s history. After four years of unified Democratic control of state government, the 2023 session was the first budget passed under divided government since 2017. While partisan and interbranch tensions were ever present as evidenced by a record 75 vetoed bills, Nevada’s Republican governor and Democratic-controlled legislature supported substantial investments in K-12 education and state employees. Enthusiasm for long-term spending obligations, however, was tempered by the fact that the general fund budget’s two largest revenue drivers—sales and gaming taxes—fluctuate with macroeconomic conditions. The continued reliance on these revenue sources perpetuates Nevada’s history of booms and busts and undermines the state’s ability to make long-term investments in its human capital and physical infrastructure. Consequently, the budget choices adopted by the governor and legislature reflected broad compromises and investments, while other areas, including costly but much needed reforms to state government, went unaddressed.
Topic:
Education, Government, Budget, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Nevada

571. The Long Shadow of the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights: Colorado's 2024-2025 Budget and Economy

Author:
Michael Berry
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In one of the most polarized legislatures in the United States, partisan and ideological divisions among Colorado lawmakers often overlap with differences in identity and experience. Although the chasm between Democrats and Republicans on salient social and economic issues is wide, bipartisan policymaking still occurs. Democratic successes in 2022 extended their streak to four consecutive election cycles of remaining even or gaining seats in both the Colorado House and Senate. Unified government with expanded majorities has allowed Democrats to advance their agenda through the state budget with relative ease, and seldom used parliamentary tactics helped bring about liberal policy change in contentious issue areas including gun control. In budgetary politics, the fiscal constraints of the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR) currently do more to impede the progressive agenda than dwindling opposition votes from minority party Republicans. Statewide ballot measures have also driven policy change, at times in conservative directions, on consequential tax and fiscal policy issues. Coloradans have demonstrated an openness to government reform in some areas, but less so when it comes to ballot measures affecting TABOR.
Topic:
Budget, Economy, Tax Systems, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Colorado, and United States of America

572. New Mexico 2024: Swinging the Compass. Recalibrating Fiscal Policy to Plan for a Slower Economy

Author:
Kim Seckler
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In late February 2024, the New Mexico State Legislature closed the books on a relatively uneventful session. After successive years of record revenues and double-digit budget expansion, the legislature modestly reigned in spending increases to less than 7%. Legislators continued their recent trend of stashing some of the state’s massive surplus in newly created endowment funds, hoping to insulate the state from future economic downturns. The legislative action reflects a growing consensus that boom and bust budgeting does not provide for a stable, long-term financial future. Legislators still managed to approve a $10 billion dollar plus budget, set aside reserves upwards of 30%, and spend almost $1.4 billion in capital projects big and small. Though the 30-day session is short, lawmakers still found time to deal with some social issues (public safety, health care, education, and the environment) and some issues personal to the legislature. Though only 72 pieces of legislation passed, the legislature managed to reset the compass on New Mexico’s financial structure while tinkering with current social concerns.
Topic:
Budget, Economy, Fiscal Policy, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and New Mexico

573. Into the Unknown: The 2024 Washington State Legislative Session & Beyond

Author:
Michael Artime, Erin Richards, and Francis Benjamin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In this paper, we discuss the political and budgetary landscape of Washington State. With consistent Democratic leadership—in the governor’s mansion and with respect to legislative priorities—the state has been able to advance a more liberal policy agenda than states without Democratic majorities. In this session, the legislature voted to invest in the development of affordable housing, behavioral health initiatives, and policies designed to curb climate change. However, ballot initiatives in November might serve as a significant impediment to these policy pursuits. Voters will decide whether to keep the cap-and-trade climate policy, the capital gains tax, and the long-term care program for the state. The cap-and-trade policy, as well as the capital gains tax, serves as a means of revenue generation and the elimination of these resources would upend the budget in important ways moving forward.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Democratic Party, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
Washington, North America, and United States of America

574. Should Newsom Stay or Should He LAO? California’s 2024-2025 Budget

Author:
Brian DiSarro and Wesley Hussey
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The FY 2024-25 budgeting cycle in California was far less chaotic than the previous year, when a record $100 billion budget surplus morphed into a widening deficit. This time, Democratic Gavin Newsom and the Democratic controlled legislature had to tackle that mounting deficit as the state’s economy stalled, specifically among the wealthiest Californians, who fund a large portion of the state’s government. Neither Newsom nor the two new Democratic legislative leaders had experienced a budget deficit in office, which made coordination additionally tricky. The state is in much better shape than previous deficits, however, with a large reserve and strong budget resilience among its leaders. One problem- the governor increasingly reports different budget numbers than the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Office (LAO), which assesses the administration’s budget for the legislature.
Topic:
Government, Budget, Democratic Party, State Legislature, and Gavin Newsom
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

575. Two Factions Walk into a Budget Session

Author:
Jason McConnell and Robert Schuhmann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The 67th Wyoming Legislature’s 20-day budget session was convened Thursday, February 8, 2024, for the beginning of its work in Cheyenne. This year, outside of its typical budget work, over 360 bills were brought forward by both legislative committees and individual legislators. These bills ranged from property tax relief to health care. In the end, on Friday March 8th, the final biennial General Fund budget was close to $3.8 billion – up approximately $100 million from the previous biennium. Deep ideological divides within the state’s dominant Republican Party drove much debate and show no signs of abating before next year’s general session.
Topic:
Government, Budget, State Legislature, and Republican Party
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Wyoming

576. How Are Minority Staffers Utilized? Evidence from the California State Assembly

Author:
Michelangelo Landgrave
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Legislative staffers are among legislators’ most valuable assets and their appointment by legislators is strategic. Past research has focused on how legislative staffer appointments help legislators meet policy or constituency service goals. In this article I advance the literature by theorizing how minority staffers are utilized. I hypothesize, and show using novel data from the California State Assembly, that state legislators disproportionally place Hispanic and Asian American Pacific Islander staffers in constituency service positions. This may be done as an effort to provide a form of surrogate descriptive representation. Concerningly, because minority staffers are more likely to be placed in constituency service positions, minority staffers are less likely to be placed in policy orientated positions where they might have the most influence over substantive policymaking. This leads to a situation where minority staffers are placed in visible constituency service appointments but continue to be underrepresented in key policy appointments.
Topic:
Government, Minorities, State Legislature, and Staffers
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

577. On a Roll, or Is It a Slide? Alaska’s Budgeting Process in 2024

Author:
Glenn Wright
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
As in 2023, Alaska’s politics seem to be benefitting from a more moderate and collegial policymaking environment and possibly even more sensible budgetary policy. In part, this seems due to Alaska’s adoption of a new election system which in 2022 generated a more moderate set of legislative coalitions than the previous several election cycles. These moderate coalitions may be short-lived, however, as an effort to repeal the new election system is underway. And even with our relatively moderate State House and State Senate coalitions, headwinds and controversies remain, especially issues around public education funding.
Topic:
Education, Budget, Elections, and State Legislature
Political Geography:
North America, Alaska, and United States of America

578. Western countries' sanctions offensive against Russia

Author:
Elżbieta Kaca and Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The renewed sanctions imposed by the US, the UK and the EU will reduce Russia's ability to finance its military operations by hitting the oil and gas sectors, which still generate around 25% of its budget revenue. The sanctions underscore the US's determination to force Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine. As a consequence, Russia's economic problems will worsen, and its economic and political influence abroad, including in certain EU countries, will diminish. However, the effectiveness of the restrictions will depend on how they are implemented by the US, how they are further tightened — especially against the Russian shadow fleet — and whether secondary sanctions are applied.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and United States of America

579. China Trying to Strengthen Dialogue with India

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
China sees India as its main rival in Asia. However, the Chinese authorities are maintaining a dialogue with the Indian government, recently even signalling a conciliatory attitude. In this way, they want to prevent an escalation in bilateral relations and try to influence India’s relations with the U.S. and the European Union in a way that is beneficial to China. Although China’s attempts to strengthen dialogue with India are tactical in nature, even a short-term improvement in bilateral relations poses a challenge for the EU. Attempts to reduce Europe’s dependence on China, in which India is to play an important role, are now in question.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

580. EU Cooperation with the International Criminal Court

Author:
Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
For years, the EU has consistently supported the International Criminal Court (ICC), considering it one of the key elements in promoting human rights, humanitarian law and justice around the world. The uneven commitment of states to cooperation with the Court, successive decisions to denounce its Statute, and the sanctions imposed on the ICC by Donald Trump's administration are all hampering its functioning, but have not been met with a firm response from the EU.
Topic:
Human Rights, European Union, International Criminal Court (ICC), and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

581. EU Clean Industry Deal: Strengthening Competitiveness in Green

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
In the face of increasing trade pressure from the United States and growing competition from China, the European Union announced actions to rebuild the competitiveness of European industry, as included in the Clean Industry Deal (CID). Increasing the EU’s economic independence while maintaining ambitious climate goals will be a challenge for the industry, especially if electrification based on renewable sources is assumed. Therefore, solutions supporting the attractiveness to businesses of EU production will be decisive, including through efficient deregulation and reduction of energy prices and especially in view of the growing dynamics of changes in the structure of global markets. The EU’s flexible and adaptive approach to the energy transformation will be important here, in particular for countries still dependent on fossil sources, such as Poland.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Industry, and Clean Industry Deal (CID)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

582. U.S. Prepares for a Nuclear Energy Renaissance

Author:
Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
President Donald Trump’s announced “nuclear energy renaissance” is a response to the failure of previous reforms, growing energy demand (driven by AI), his lack of support for renewables, and the weakening U.S. technological position in nuclear energy relative to China and Russia. The changes would focus on reforming nuclear oversight, increasing the role of the Department of Defense, accelerating technology deployment, developing the nuclear workforce, and producing domestic nuclear fuel. Enhanced funding and assertive export diplomacy may encourage new investments in partner countries.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Artificial Intelligence, Donald Trump, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

583. A Georgia Led by Georgian Dream Looks to the East

Author:
Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
Georgia’s international isolation has deepened since last year’s parliamentary elections in the country. European countries and the United States are introducing sanctions against the Georgian authorities for their ongoing repression of anti-government demonstrations and crackdown on NGOs, free media, and the opposition. With the retreat from cooperation with the U.S. and the EU, Georgia is increasingly more dependent on Russia and China.
Topic:
Elections, Protests, Repression, Parliament, and Georgian Dream Party
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Caucasus, Georgia, and United States of America

584. Europeans and Trump: dishonour, impotence or influence?

Author:
Maxime Lefebvre
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Responses to the Turnberry trade agreement between Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen on 27 July (formalised in an EU-US statement published on 27 August) did not mince words: ‘shame’, ‘submission’, ‘vassalage’, ‘humiliation’, and even the beginning of a ‘century of humiliation’ for Europe, following the example of China, which was forced to open up its imports of opium in the mid-19th century, marking the beginning of the long decline of the Middle Kingdom. This agreement must be viewed in the broader context of transatlantic relations during Donald Trump's second term, which includes the situation in Ukraine and, more broadly, the issue of European defence and security. Looking at things in this context, Europeans have so far shown unity, diplomacy and even efficiency. They have begun to learn from their weaknesses, but the road to European power remains fraught with pitfalls.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

585. Understanding, Deterring, and Preparing for a Great-Power War in the Twenty-First Century

Author:
Antulio J. Echevarria II, Larry P. Goodson, and Brennan Deveraux
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The US government and the US Army are unprepared for a great-power war. This integrated research project (IRP), sponsored by Vice Chief of Staff of the Army General James J. Mingus, is a critical first step in helping senior US Army leaders increase their knowledge of, and preparations for, deterring or fighting a great-power war in the twenty-first century. No one knows how long the US government and the US Army have to prepare for a future conflict. Consequently, the US Department of Defense faces difficult decisions as it balances preparing for a future war with maintaining readiness to address current challenges. The student research in this IRP only scratches the surface of what the US Department of Defense and the US Army should do to understand, deter, and prepare more effectively for the possibility of a great-power war in the twenty-first century. While the steps outlined here are preliminary, they are not tentative. Readers will find that each chapter offers concrete, actionable recommendations based on duly considered analysis. But more work lies ahead.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Deterrence, Gray Zone, Defense Industry, Emerging Technology, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

586. Maine’s Immigrant Communities: Diverse Origins, Characteristics, and Challenges

Author:
Valerie Lacarte and Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Maine’s immigrant population, though small, is distinct in its origins and characteristics compared to immigrants in other states and the nation at large. Due to a long history of movement across a shared border, Canadians have a notable presence in the state. At the same time, immigrants in Maine come from many parts of the world, and nearly half have lived in the United States for 20 years or more. With the state working-age population projected to shrink in the coming years, immigrants are poised to play an increasingly important role in the state workforce. And in fact, foreign-born workers already contribute to many key industries in Maine—from health care and manufacturing to agriculture and aquaculture. This report presents a profile of the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of Maine’s immigrants, based primarily on MPI analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. MPI researchers also interviewed staff of nine immigrant-serving organizations in Maine to better understand the types of services some immigrants need—some related to challenges shared with U.S.-born Mainers, while others are more specific to this population.
Topic:
Demographics, Employment, Immigrants, Integration, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Maine

587. Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies into Common Operating Picture and Course of Action Development

Author:
C. Anthony Pfaff and Christopher John Hickey
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies into Common Operating Picture and Course of Action Development explores the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to revolutionize military planning processes by enhancing situational awareness and expediting course of action development within the Joint planning process. The study delves into technical, organizational, and resource considerations that are critical for AI integration. In addition, the study highlights the importance of clean, structured data in training AI systems, addresses challenges in data collection across varying formats and classifications, and emphasizes the need for AI-friendly infrastructure. By automating processes like common operational picture generation and leveraging AI for course of action analysis, military planners can achieve greater efficiency and decision-making speed. Furthermore, this publication underscores the challenges of ethical implementation, resource sustainability, and organizational adaptation, including upskilling personnel and integrating commercial vendors. Case studies, such as the Maven Smart System and STORMBREAKER, demonstrate AI’s ability to enhance data fusion, improve battlefield awareness, and streamline operational planning. This research provides a robust framework for overcoming barriers to AI adoption, enabling the US military to harness AI technologies for enhanced planning, decision making, and operational success.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

588. More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Pacific Requires Context

Author:
Brennan Deveraux and Joshua Arostegui
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
This monograph establishes a contextual baseline that serves as the framework for future comparisons of the US Army and the People’s Liberation Army Army. It examines differences in five key components of land warfare: the two nations’ landpower definitions, uses of land forces to build relationships, underlying warfare concepts, associated modernization efforts, and varying approaches to simulating land warfare in the region. In examining these components, the authors identify warfare intangibles that highlight analytical findings in a way that promotes future research. The existing scholarship comparing the two forces is often limited in scope, focusing on funding or comparing capabilities such as the number of specific weapons systems. This monograph differs from existing scholarship by providing a broad, in-depth comparison of critical landpower components. The analysis challenges long-held assumptions about US Army superiority and sets a foundation for future research. The authors rely heavily on primary sources and ample secondary documents translated directly from Chinese vernacular sources. This study’s conclusions challenge conventional thinking surrounding the People’s Liberation Army and will assist US military and policy practitioners in assessing the relative strengths and advantages the US military can grow or exploit.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Modernization, Simulation, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Warfare
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

589. Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence

Author:
Antulio J. Echevarria II
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph discusses how NATO might better leverage risk to strengthen the alliance’s extended deterrence. Such leverage would prove especially useful because Kyiv is unlikely to be permitted to join NATO and the United States may reduce its presence in Europe. Western analysts have not given Russian deterrence enough credit for the alliance’s deterrence failure on February 24, 2022. The alliance did not act fecklessly, nor did it self-deter. Rather, NATO’s deterrence measures were calibrated more for hybrid/gray-zone attacks of the sort it saw in 2014, not for the large-scale combat operations the alliance witnessed in 2022, which involved a nuclear-armed adversary with stronger interests in Ukraine than NATO had. To be sure, the alliance’s leaders acted responsibly in managing the risk of escalation. But in so doing, they also facilitated Russian deterrence efforts, which succeeded in keeping Washington and Brussels from intervening in the war. The alliance thus demonstrated its need for a strategy that would increase the risks and costs of war for Russia without unduly raising NATO’s. In short, the alliance needs a proxy strategy of “waging war without going to war,” whereby NATO can provide its full political, economic, and military support to Ukraine without running the risk of putting alliance troops in harm’s way.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Risk, Deterrence, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America

590. Cognitive Defense: 2024 Homeland Defense Symposium

Author:
George M. Schwartz
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The US Army War College hosted the inaugural annual Homeland Defense Symposium from February 6 to 8, 2024, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Reestablishing the Sanctuary,” featured plenary presentations on defending critical infrastructure, contested deployment, and cognitive defense by experts from military, academic, and government organizations. As highlighted in the conference theme, attendees recognized the homeland does not provide the sanctuary it once did, and our society is already under attack. Using disinformation and social media means, our adversaries are engaged in cognitive warfare in the homeland, seeking to shape the attitudes and behaviors of citizens by negatively influencing and disrupting their cognitive processes, thus weakening our society’s political will and degrading national resilience. Using contemporary examples to show how disinformation and malinformation undermine trust in government institutions, the authors of these conference papers provide insights and offer solutions for the cognitive defense of the homeland. These papers from the first Homeland Defense Symposium inform policymakers and practitioners on what to expect as we compete internationally and how to prepare for a possible large-scale conflict.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Homeland Security, Resilience, Cognitive Warfare, and Cognitive Defense
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

591. How Can Stablecoins Work in a Tariff World?

Author:
Sharat Chandra
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
As a growing number of countries face rising tariffs in 2025, stablecoins may be the answer to geoeconomic fragmentation by providing solutions that enhance trade efficiency in response to protectionist policies and regional alliances. While the United States leverages stablecoins to reinforce global US dollar dominance, rising tariffs and de-dollarization trends are boosting demand for gold and other non-dollar-denominated and commodity-backed stablecoins. This trend is especially prominent among BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations that are wary of US monetary policy. Euro-backed stablecoins are also gaining strength and, together with the digital euro, may pose a threat to US dollar hegemony.
Topic:
Digital Economy, Tariffs, Trade, Stablecoins, and Financial Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

592. The Quadripolar World: Understanding Twenty-First-Century Geopolitics

Author:
S. Yash Kalash
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The current geopolitical environment is defined by constantly changing dynamics among countries: long-standing partnerships are disintegrating while other alliances are strengthening. To better understand a world in flux, this special report presents the quadripolar geopolitical framework (QGF) in which four powers — the United States, China, India and Russia — serve as autonomous strategic poles. The framework seeks to capture the fluid, multidimensional nature of twenty-first-century geopolitics, where states simultaneously compete, cooperate and hedge across domains. Drawing on game theory, the QGF maps bilateral relationships across two axes: ideological alignment versus strategic autonomy, and systemic rivalry versus economic interdependence. Through case studies, the special report illustrates how contemporary power dynamics defy linear alliances and demand new interpretive tools.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Global Focus, and United States of America

593. Bridging Histories: Lessons for the US Department of Defense from New Zealand Defence Forces’ Integration of Indigenous Cultures

Author:
Shane McNeil
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This article examines the potential lessons the United States Department of Defense (DoD) can learn from the New Zealand Defence Forces' (NZDF) successful integration of indigenous cultures into its military traditions. Through a comparative analysis, it explores the historical military engagements of both nations with their indigenous populations, highlighting the warrior cultures of Native Americans and Māori pre-colonization. The study delves into the NZDF's acknowledgment and incorporation of Māori history and traditions, showcasing the positive outcomes on organizational cohesion, cultural competence, and operational effectiveness. Conversely, it evaluates the current stance of the US DoD towards Native American heritage, identifying gaps and missed opportunities for cultural integration. The article argues that adopting indigenous warrior ideologies and identities could significantly benefit the US DoD by enhancing cultural sensitivity, diversity, and tactical innovation. It concludes with strategic recommendations for integrating indigenous histories and traditions into the US military framework, suggesting that such an approach could foster improved relations with indigenous communities and strengthen the defense sector's cultural and operational landscape.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Indigenous, and Native Americans
Political Geography:
North America, New Zealand, and United States of America

594. To Stand with Palestine with Professor Karam Dana (10/9/2025)

Author:
Karam Dana
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Professor Dana will discuss his book To Stand with Palestine: Transnational Resistance and Political Evolution in the United States that provides a new lens on activism around Palestinian issues, demonstrating how the global Palestinian diaspora has driven transnational political movements. Karam Dana explores the ways that exile has shaped Palestinian identity and allowed for new forms of global activism. He examines the social, political, economic, and technological forces that have created space for Palestinian voices to be heard by wider audiences worldwide.
Topic:
Diaspora, Identity, Palestinians, and Transnational Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

595. Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea — A Book Talk by Joel S. Wit

Author:
Joel S. Wit and Barbara Demick
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Delivered on November 7, 2025, Joel S. Wit discusses his new book, "Fallout: The Inside Story of America’s Failure to Disarm North Korea". Wit examines why U.S. efforts to halt North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have repeatedly fallen short, reconstructing nearly four decades of high-stakes negotiations and secret diplomatic exchanges. Based on more than 300 interviews with policymakers in Washington, Beijing, Seoul, and Pyongyang, the book uncovers the pressures, missteps, and missed opportunities that shaped U.S.–DPRK nuclear diplomacy. Wit challenges common narratives by presenting Kim Jong Un not as irrational, but as a calculated strategist using nuclear escalation as leverage. He also argues that policy shifts under the Obama and Trump administrations accelerated North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, transforming the North into a direct threat to every major U.S. city. Speaker: Joel S. Wit, Distinguished Fellow in Asian and Security Studies, The Stimson Center Moderator: Barbara Demick, journalist and author of "Nothing to Envy" (2009) and "Daughters of the Bamboo Grove" (2025)
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Negotiation, and Book Talk
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

596. Status Recognition and Great Power Conflicts Today: The US, China, and Russia

Author:
Thomas J. Christensen and T.V. Paul
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
October 17, 2025 — The violent conflict in Ukraine triggered by Russia, China’s drift away from a “peaceful rise” strategy, and America’s near abandonment of liberal leadership have created deep uncertainty. T. V. Paul's new book project asks: Under what conditions do great powers abandon or significantly alter relatively peaceful grand strategies for reasons of status? It examines how strategic interaction between great powers—and the pivotal role of domestic coalitions—shapes expectations of status reciprocity and recognition leading to great power conflicts. The author of multiple books, T. V. Paul is the Distinguished James McGill Professor in the Department of Political Science at McGill University. Moderator Thomas J. Christensen is James T. Shotwell Professor of International Relations at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University and the Director of its China and the World Program.
Topic:
Grand Strategy, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

597. Climate Clarity: On the Future of Climate Action in the United States

Author:
Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, Noah Gordon, and Milo McBride
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
People in the United States who care about fighting climate change are shellshocked. After four years of insufficient, but nevertheless unprecedented, policy support for climate action, there has been a sudden, abrupt reversal. Under the headline of “Energy Dominance,” President Donald Trump’s administration has scrapped environmental regulations, taken a sledgehammer to the green industrial policy of its predecessor, and removed the United States from international climate diplomacy. Programs of every description addressing or even indirectly touching climate action have been cut, and congressionally appropriated funds for decarbonization and strengthening climate resilience have been cancelled, frozen, or delayed indefinitely. The gutting of IRA tax credits and other support for clean energy this July was a major blow to climate action in the United States, and the Trump administration has followed up by obstructing wind and solar projects, even some that were nearly ready to deliver crucial power to Americans. This dramatic U-turn is the product of electoral outcomes, but it is also the result of an important shift in the battle of ideas, one that is playing out in the United States and also in other countries. Opponents of climate action have pivoted from simply denying that human activity is changing the climate and toward what is best described as a “New Denialism”—a narrative based on convincing the public that climate solutions don’t work or are too expensive, that decarbonization is too difficult and unrealistic a goal, and that everyone should make peace with the fact that fossil fuels will be around forever, so the United States might as well produce more of them. Climate change will inflict some damage, but it’s a small price to pay for progress, New Denialists argue. New Denialism is more subtle and thus perhaps more dangerous than its predecessor. It thrives on the fact that the energy transition is complex and nuanced, and that the scientific consensus, though settled on the fundamentals, is uncertain about the magnitude, cost, and timeline of climate damages. The New Denialism exploits these features to undermine the public’s confidence in the entire decarbonization project, while largely ignoring adaptation (or, in some cases, sophomorically suggesting it will be easy). If these ideas take root, they may prevent the formation of coalitions for meaningful climate action in the future, even if a climate-friendly party eventually takes the White House and Congress. Building a fresh, durable consensus for climate action will require not just confronting the New Denialism but also setting forth a new approach that takes an objective, fact-based view of the promise and limitations of the global energy transition and of what the United States needs to do to adapt to climate impacts. But even more important is building a narrative that relates climate action to two other things that Americans are urgently demanding of their political leadership: an affordable way of life and better health for themselves and their loved ones. Many climate solutions can lower the cost of living and safeguard human health, and it is possible—in fact, imperative—to make life more affordable, longer, and healthier for the people of the United States while addressing climate change at the same time. We call our approach Climate Clarity, and it’s based on four foundational ideas that stem from our research and that of our peers. These ideas may be controversial in some quarters, but we are convinced they will lead to a more constructive, reality-aligned public debate about the future of climate policy and action at a key historical juncture in the United States: Clean energy technologies today are effective and cost-competitive relative to fossil fuel alternatives. That is why the global energy transition, led by China and Europe, is now well under way, and why U.S. policy shifts are unlikely to derail it. A wave of disruptive, clean energy innovations is getting close to maturity and will further accelerate the transition. Out of self-interest, the United States should be part of the energy transition rather than sitting on the sidelines and hitching its star to fossil fuels. This will allow Americans to benefit directly from clean energy markets that are growing much faster than fossil fuel markets, enable the global transition to move faster, and keep the goal alive of reaching net zero emissions. Negative emissions technology needs to advance urgently and is an area where the United States could lead. Americans need to prepare for the impacts of climate change by taking a hard, dispassionate look at climate risk and adopting a risk-management philosophy. That means prioritizing the protection of vulnerable groups, ensuring that Americans have the information they need to make climate-informed decisions, and facilitating the mobility of people across and within different regions of the country. Technological innovation alone won’t be enough. Building lasting support for climate-friendly policies that support those technologies will require forming a new political coalition. And that, in turn, will require linking climate solutions to Americans’ most important everyday concerns, namely affordability and health.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Regulation, Domestic Politics, Innovation, Donald Trump, Sustainability, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

598. U.S. Democratic Backsliding in Comparative Perspective

Author:
McKenzie Carrier and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The global democratic recession of the past twenty years has been marked by numerous cases of elected leaders incrementally dismantling democracy through a steady centralization of power and undercutting of checks and balances—what political scientists label as executive aggrandizement. Under the second Donald Trump presidency, the United States is showing clear signs of following such a path, leading many commenters to draw arresting but often relatively glancing comparisons with other prominent recent cases of democratic erosion, like Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye. This paper examines U.S. political developments since the return of Trump to power in an in-depth, comparative light, seeking to illuminate the similarities and differences between the unfolding U.S. context and the experience of other troubled democracies. The paper establishes that the Trump administration’s overall political project conforms to the general model of executive aggrandizement, and is best understood as taking place at three interrelated levels: Establishing the president as supreme within the executive branch: Trump’s team seeks an extreme form of presidential concentration of power within the executive branch. It has weakened accountability institutions and regulations, tightened presidential control over independent agencies and the executive bureaucracy, decreased the political independence of the civil service, and purged perceived opponents from the branch. Making the executive branch dominant over other parts of government: The administration is forcefully seeking dominance over the judiciary, Congress, and states. It has defied court orders, criticized judicial rulings, and constrained individual judges. It has circumvented congressional policies and undermined its powers. And it has attacked and constrained state governments that do not align with administration policies. Weakening societal constraints on executive power: Trump has stymied civil society opposition by attacking independent media, punishing lawyers and law firms perceived to be oppositional, and constraining civic and educational organizations. His team has undermined vertical checks on the executive by weakening voting rights and the independence of election administration. Broadly, Trump is pursuing widespread retribution against perceived opponents and critics. The paper then compares the path of U.S. politics under Trump to seven other recent or ongoing cases of democratic backsliding—Brazil, Ecuador, El Salvador, Hungary, India, Poland, and Türkiye—highlighting distinctive features along three comparative dimensions: Focus: The Trump team’s agenda has several priorities that set it apart from other backsliding cases. These include its unique emphasis on intra-executive dominance, delegitimization rather than institutionalized attacks on horizontal checks, and coercive use of the robust federal funding ecosystem to pressure U.S. civil society. Rapidity: The administration has carried out its political program with striking speed. Compared to other backsliding cases, it has sought to centralize power with greater momentum and rapidity. And while other leaders often eroded democratic checks piece by piece, Trump’s team is working to weaken such checks across multiple levels all at once. Severity: The degree of democratic erosion in the United States is not yet as severe as that of most of its backsliding peers. The country has not yet seen the deep-rooted institutional changes that have characterized many of the comparative cases. And repressive measures like coercive force or criminalization have been limited by U.S. democratic norms and institutions. While some comfort can be taken from the fact that the relatively deeply rooted U.S. democratic norms and institutions compared to those in the other cases have resulted in a less institutionalized process of backsliding thus far, the distinctive speed and aggressiveness of Trump’s aggrandizement agenda is cause for serious concern. Numerous avenues and sources of resistance to democratic erosion continue to exist, but U.S. democracy is being put to the test as never before in the country’s modern history.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Turkey, India, Poland, Brazil, Hungary, North America, Ecuador, El Salvador, and United States of America

599. Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply

Author:
Allan Bentley and Jonas Goldman
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has prioritized building a secure critical minerals supply chain to create economic prosperity and geopolitical leverage. This strategy centers on streamlined permitting, legislative support via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and protective tariffs, including a planned 50 percent tariff on copper announced for summer 2025. However, a purely domestic approach will face severe constraints. First, the United States does not have the necessary critical minerals reserves in all cases. This creates fundamental limits to supply that cannot be resolved through domestic policy measures alone. While international agreements, such as the minerals deal with Ukraine, offer potential solutions, mining development requires long lead times, which makes these efforts inherently long-term projects. In addition, there is a tension between domestic mining goals and broader manufacturing competitiveness. Our analysis shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, by 2035 U.S. domestic production would be able to meet projected demand only for zinc and molybdenum. Even a substantial domestic minerals boom would leave the country requiring substantial imports of copper, graphite, lithium, silver, nickel, and manganese to support industrial expansion and grid modernization. But greater minerals extraction is only half the picture, as a corresponding scaleup of U.S. smelting capacity would also be required. Current policy measures under the OBBBA provide mixed support. While the legislation allocates $2 billion for National Defense Stockpile purchases, $5 billion for the Industrial Base Fund, and $500 million for defense credit programs, it simultaneously phases out the Inflation Reduction Act’s permanent 10 percent production tax credit in 2034. These changes fail to address the structural weaknesses in U.S. mining competitiveness. This analysis identifies two critical pathways. First, a comprehensive domestic industrial strategy must address the entire mining ecosystem—from streamlined permitting and modern equipment to efficient logistics networks and processing economies of scale. Second, a coordinated friendshoring approach must leverage partnerships with allies and developing economies to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance. The United States must support value-added processing in these jurisdictions, so that all countries can benefit from a global mining diversification push. One specific policy mechanism is likely to prove crucial. Guaranteed price contracts with miners and processors—modeled on the recent MP Materials rare earths arrangement—could provide investment certainty through shared upside mechanisms rather than blanket import restrictions. Success requires strategically coordinated domestic and international efforts. Tariffs alone will fail. Innovation support, technology standards, and infrastructure development must be integrated in a comprehensive industrial strategy. A balanced approach that strengthens domestic capabilities while securing reliable international partnerships offers the best path toward critical minerals security that enables rather than constrains American manufacturing competitiveness.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Mining, Supply Chains, Offshoring, Critical Minerals, and Onshoring
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

600. The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0

Author:
Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, and Elena Ventura
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 seemed to herald a revolutionary new era that would reshape not only the United States but also European politics and culture.1 The breathtaking speed and depth with which the second Trump presidency has changed U.S. domestic and foreign policy is reminiscent of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution and has caused frantic adaptation across the globe.2 U.S. action in geopolitical theaters that are central to Europe’s security and Washington’s triggering of a global trade war are immensely consequential for Europe. U.S. policy is revealing the ideological detail of the American radical right as it undergoes some solidification and builds an international network in which Europe plays a key role. Europe is high on the agenda of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Yet, however emboldened the European radical right may feel, and despite growing transatlantic linkages, events of the past year suggest that the continent’s own dynamics and challenges remain the main drivers that shape Europe’s political and policy choices. The European radical right has had some electoral successes but continues to struggle to turn that achievement into action, as it is divided in the European Union (EU) institutions and inconsistent on policy. The primary factor in the radical right’s success is the failure of mainstream politics to find effective responses to political challenges. In April 2024, Carnegie Europe published a report on the foreign policies of the fourteen most significant European radical-right parties and their impact on the EU.3 Now, one year into the EU’s 2024–2029 institutional term, this paper asks: With Trump in the White House, can the radical right—in the words of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—“conquer” Europe?4 In fact, the Trump effect on the radical right is more nuanced than is usually assumed. Signals of both empowerment and distance are visible. While the radical right’s electorate is more drawn to Trump in his second term than in his first, most Europeans continue to be skeptical of him, making radical-right parties cautious in their embrace of Trumpism. After all, the Trump administration’s outright anti-EU policies affect radical-right electorates, too. The radical right is as consequential as centrist parties, leaders, and institutions allow it to be. Fears that the radical right with Trump’s support will destroy the EU seem overblown in the short term. However, the right could well be capable of blocking and delaying reforms that are necessary to confront the EU’s current and future challenges. Rather than conquering Europe, the radical right seems set on preventing the EU from becoming what it needs to become.
Topic:
European Union, Donald Trump, Political Parties, Radical Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America