Search

Begin New Search Political Geography United States of America

5451. On the Palestinian issue, how much credit should Europe get amongst Arab opinion for its economic and political support?

Author:
Ralitsa Trifonova
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The formulation in the Council of Ministers’ of the European Union statement, issued on 8 December 2009, that within “an agreed time-frame” an independent Palestinian state should emerge on the Middle East’s political map raised hopes for a breakthrough in the remaining unsolved more than 60 years Palestinian issue. Together with the statement of the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in Moscow in the late 2009, this formulation is viewed by members of the Palestinian National Authority itself as a sign, in being specific in contrast with previous statements excluding a set timeframe for the establishment of a viable independent Palestinian state. After the unveiled Israeli violations of the international law during the last war over Gaza, a lot of voices not only in Palestine, but from all over world are revealing the impatience, reaching its nadir as Israeli behaviour does not represent threat only to the Palestinian people, but to the whole international system, especially when it shelled the headquarters of one the United Nations agencies on 15 January 2009. Some analysts believe that after the continued over 60 year’s failure of the USA to reach any significant progress to the benefit of the Palestinian people, it is high time Europe entered the Middle East arena as the third party, which would lead the two parties of the IsraeliPalestinian issue to a balanced solution, which does not reply on forced compromise. As the distrust of the Palestinian people with the USA is growing, Europe would only play a positive role if it were a trust-worthy ally itself. In order to give this alternative a positive perspective, we need to go back to the beginning of the European involvement in the Palestinian issue, to follow its own history of internal development, to explore the character of its economic aid and the existence of political support to the Palestinian people in their most turbulent and crucial moments in last four decades.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

5452. Mega-Events and Sectoral Employment: The Case of the 1996 Olympic Games

Author:
Arne Feddersen
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper contributes to the analysis of large sporting events using highly disaggregated data. We use the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta, which are also outstanding as one of the very few large sporting events where ex post academic analysis found significant positive effects. This paper extends earlier studies in several ways. First, monthly rather than quarterly data will be employed. Second, the impact of the 1996 Olympics will be analyzed for 16 different sectors or subsectors. Third, in addition to standard DD models, we use a non-parametric approach to flexibly isolate employment effects. Regarding the Olympic effect, hardly any evidence for a persistent shift in the aftermath of or the preparation for the Olympic Games is supported. We find a significant positive employment effect in the monthly employment statistics exclusively during the staging of the Olympic Games (July 1996). These short-term effects are concentrated in the sectors of “retail trade”, “accommodation and food services”, and “arts, entertainment, and recreation”, while other sectors showed no such effects.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Sports, Olympics, and Sectoral Data
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5453. Will the U.S. Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The U.S. economy’s rapidly growing trade and current account deficits (2003-2007) and systematic weakening of the dollar against the Euro and other currencies raised several concerns about its future as the global reserve currency. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009, while reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s role as the most liquid and in demand currency (especially during periods of increased risk aversion) triggered a political debate on how the future global reserve currency system should be shaped.
Topic:
Finance, Economy, Currency, Dollar, and Euro
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

5454. Limits of Quantitative Easing

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The recent decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) to increase its assets by purchasing $600 billion worth of Treasury bonds is unlikely to boost economic growth or employment prospects in the U.S. Instead, it will cause damage to the world economy and may even lead to another financial crisis (especially in emerging and developing markets), where the U.S. dollar remains a leading reserve and transaction currency."
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Macroeconomics, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

5455. New START Verification: Fitting the Means to the Ends

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) promises to lock in significant reductions in U.S. and Russian strategic arsenals by establishing lower ceilings on deployed weapons. The treaty’s verification provisions are means to that end--providing confidence that the sides are complying with those lower limits. Although the goal is to establish the high confidence levels maintained during the 15 years of the original START (1994-2009), the successor agreement will achieve that goal with more focused and up-to-date methods, including innovative verification provisions for deployed warhead ceilings. START’s multilayered limits and the elaborate verification measures flowing out of them were born of the Cold War. New START verification can be streamlined in accordance with the new, simplified limits and in response to post-Cold War realities. In assessing the new treaty, it is critical that verification provisions be judged by how well they fulfill their core function.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

5456. Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2009-2010 Report Card

Author:
Peter Crail
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The study, Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2009-2010 Report Card gives grades to China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, India, Israel, Pakistan—each of which possess nuclear weapons—and North Korea—which maintains a nuclear weapons capability—as well as Iran and Syria, which are under investigation for possible nuclear weapons-related activity.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Iran, India, Israel, North Korea, France, Syria, and United States of America

5457. The Case for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

Author:
Tom Z. Collina and Daryl G. Kimball
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) reduces the bloated Russian and American nuclear arsenals, while ensuring the ability of the U.S. to inspect and monitor Russian strategic nuclear forces. This report lays out the arguments in favor of New START ratification, and addresses the arguments of New START critics.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

5458. U.S.-China Maritime Confidence Building Paradigms, Precedents, and Prospects

Author:
David Griffiths
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
As two great powers that will influence much of the immediate future of our small and vulnerable planet, China and the United States are in a marriage of sorts—united for the purpose of living together, in the words of the Oxford English Dictionary. Like it or not, the two societies depend on each other. Environmental degradation, social unrest, economic problems, or pandemic outbreak in one must inevitably affect the other. Both must be active contributors to a peaceful, prosperous, sustainable, global community. Both governments emphasize their commitment to a positive and constructive mutual engagement. At sea, however, that engagement is not always trouble free. Confrontation happens—and when it does, events do not always unfold in the way that policy makers might have intended or preferred. Like a married couple, both sides prefer to downplay to the outside world the extent and nature of quarrels. But despite this public posture, those in command of naval and maritime air forces understand only too well the potential risks of damage, injury, and even death at the tactical level. More worrying is the inherent risk of unintended consequences and the potential for an uncontrolled strategic-political spiral of unwanted escalation. It is bad policy and in no one's interest to perpetuate a relationship in which an innocent mistake at sea can trigger an unwanted political crisis. At sea, however, that engagement is not always trouble free. Confrontation happens? and when it does, events do not always unfold in the way that policy makers might have intended or preferred. Like a married couple, both sides prefer to downplay to the outside world the extent and nature of quarrels. But despite this public posture, those in command of naval and maritime air forces understand only too well the potential risks of damage, injury, and even death at the tactical level.
Topic:
International Relations, Armed Forces, Maritime, Engagement, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5459. Five Dragons Stirring Up the Sea: Challenge and Opportunity in China’s Improving Maritime Enforcement Capabilities

Author:
Lyle J. Goldstein
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
In an age of delicate maneuvering among the great powers, coast guards have taken new and leading roles on the world stage. When Washington wanted to demonstrate conviction and bring supplies to beleaguered Georgia without escalating already simmering tensions around the Black Sea, the USCGC Dallas, a large U.S. Coast Guard cutter, was quickly dispatched. The trend has long been visible in Asia. Tokyo's most extensive use of deadly force in the postwar era was an action by the Japanese coast guard against a North Korean surveillance vessel. More recently, a Japan Coast Guard cutter sank a Taiwanese fishing vessel in a collision near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands in the East China Sea, prompting a relatively serious diplomatic incident. These most powerful coast guards are spawning imitators. India, for example, announced a bold new purchase of long-range patrol aircraft for its coast guard in the fall of 2008. South Korea's improving coast guard, meanwhile, has invited foreign reporters to a tour in the vicinity of islands that are administered by South Korea but claimed by Japan, accompanying the visit with belligerent rhetoric.
Topic:
Navy, Maritime, Surveillance, and Coast Guard
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5460. A Smart Alliance in the Age of Complexity

Author:
Seongho Sheen
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The alliance between the Republic of Korea and the United States today faces a complex security environment, in which the threats it confronts are more diverse, more complicated, and require a more delicately balanced approach than ever before. In particular, expectations—even demands—are growing for South Korea to contribute to world peace and stability as a global partner for the United States in pursuing their mutual security interests (Campbell et al. 2009). Do the ROK and the United States share enough strategic interests to sustain such an alliance in the twenty-first century? And should South Korea assume an increasing role in maintaining regional and global peace? During the Cold War, the two countries' alliance was a military one, focused on the clear and direct threat from North Korea. Now, in the twenty-first century, the two security partners must transform their hard alliance into a "smart" alliance to meet more diverse security challenges together. A different set of hard and soft approaches are required, and a smart alliance will call for a more flexible combination of roles played by each partner, depending on the circumstances.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

5461. Assessment and Future Challenges of the U.S.-ROK Summit: From a Policy of Sanctions to a Policy of `Coevolution`

Author:
EAI Security Net
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S.-ROK alliance has gone through the greatest and most rapid changes in its fifty-six-year history. Yet the United States and South Korea have both failed to establish any strategic "Joint Vision" for the alliance in this new era. The Roh Moo-hyun administration dealt with many issues of alliance transformation. These included the relocation of U.S. military bases, the transfer of Wartime Operational Control (WOC) from the United States to South Korea, and efforts to facilitate the strategic flexibility of U.S. forces in Korea. None of these changes, however, were fully based on any shared strategic vision between the two countries; rather, the alterations were limited bottom-up approaches. The Lee Myung-bak administration has managed to restore the previously damaged U.S.-ROK relations with the Bush administration in 2008. It also dealt with many issues affecting the future of the alliance. But an overall reenvisioning of the alliance only came about under the current Lee-Obama partnership. The culmination of the June 2009 U.S.-ROK Summit was the joint statement released by the two presidents entitled "Joint Vision for the Alliance of the U.S. and the ROK." This statement has been long overdue. It set out clearly the security problem confronting the two countries, and established their shared strategic interests. In a simple and concise way, the "Joint Vision" laid out the future direction of the alliance in a wide range of areas, including not only military issues but also international values, the economy, the environment, and human rights. Fundamentally, the document recognized that the geographic range of the alliance has expanded globally, beyond both the Korean Peninsula and the Asia-Pacific region. The future of the alliance is significant not just for the United States but also for South Korea. Korea’s diplomatic outlook can no longer be limited to the Peninsula, because its national power has matured enough to warrant a new diplomatic strategy in its approach to its region and the world. As part of this vision, the Lee administration has issued a new strategic motto, "Global Korea." But the government still has a long way to go. It needs a more complete set of specific policies supported by a strong domestic consensus. The new vision for the U.S.-ROK alliance will help facilitate South Korea’s diplomatic leap forward. At this critical time, the United States needs assistance from its allies, including South Korea. Currently, global leadership faces numerous transnational problems such as the unprecedented global economic crisis, an insurgency in Afghanistan that is at its highest levels since the U.S. invasion in 2001, and a weakened U.S. global leadership in need of revitalization. If these major challenges are to be met, the "Joint Vision" needs to be converted into specific policies. The recent summit allowed a comprehensive discussion of both the new vision’s principles and the issues related to those principles, including the North Korean nuclear crisis, provisions for the global role of the alliance, and nonmilitary issues like the KORUS FTA (Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement). Naturally, given today’s circumstances, the North Korean nuclear program dominated the meetings. President Obama and President Lee have found considerable common ground in setting the strategic goals and policy direction that will be required to resolve the nuclear issue.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

5462. Toward a Smart Alliance: The ROK-U.S. Relationship after President Obama’s Asia Trip

Author:
EAI Security Net
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Asia is the region where a quarter of the total of American products is consumed, major bilateral allies exist, various networks of mul-tilateral institutions operate, and new powers are rising. President Obama, during his first Asia trip, tried to emphasize that America is an Asia-Pacific power that will continue its commitment through a renewed East Asia strategy of “power of balance.” Now at the crossroads of China’s foreign policy of “har-mony,” Japan’s new concept of “fraternity,” and South Korea’s catchphrase of “pragmatic for-eign policy,” the United States needs to refresh its role which has been defined as a “regional stabilizer.” People in Asia are eager to see Pres-ident Obama’s new approach to his East Asia strategy, because he inherited from his prede-cessor a triple crisis in the areas of security, soft power, and economy. President Obama’s recent Asia trip has certainly attracted the minds of many people in Asia with his concepts of strong “partnership,” and a positive-sum Asian future, as expressed in his address at the Suntory Hall, Japan. As the communication power of a network becomes more important in 21st century international politics, President Obama’s Asia trip means a lot with his efforts for public diplomacy. Putting aside images and metaphors, the strategic orientation of the United States’ East Asia strategy still needs to be more specified. People in Asia are concerned about four areas: 1) how the United States will cooperate with a rising China in producing a consensus in many sensitive and difficult areas such as mili-tary competition, economic interdependence, climate change, and ideational orientation; 2) how the United States will redefine the role of bilateral alliances which should go beyond the task of military cooperation, stretching to re-gional security and non-traditional security issues; 3) how the United States will facilitate the creation and the development of multila-teral cooperative institutions by actively par-ticipating in them; 4) and how the US will deal with security threats such as the North Korean nuclear crisis, cross-Strait relations, East Asian nationalism, and, most of all, regional power transition. So far, the United States seems to be more focused upon recovery from the economic crisis and getting help from various Asian partners in this effort. That leaves open the question of how to redefine the United States’ role in the rapidly changing environment of Asian international relations. Despite a relatively short stay in Seoul for about 20 hours, President Obama confirmed his commitment to South Korea with renewed words and statements: he underscored the importance of the KORUS FTA not just from an economic perspective, but also from a stra-tegic standpoint; he promised to provide con-tinued extended nuclear deterrence; he basi-cally agreed with South Korea’s approach to resolving the North Korean nuclear problem through a more comprehensive deal; and he highlighted new areas of cooperation at the global level such as climate change, Afghanis-tan, economic recovery, and the development of the G-20. South Koreans expect that the KORUS FTA will be the stepping stone for strengthening bilateral economic and strategic relations, recovery of both countries’ econo-mies, and improving interdependent regional economic relations. Regarding the North Ko-rean nuclear crisis, it seems that there is still a lot more to be done in making North Korea give up completely its nuclear program. This will require more intense and creative dialo-gue between Seoul and Washington. As North Korea has not made any strategic decision regarding its nuclear program and any future national strategic orientation, its return to the Six-Party Talks will only just be the beginning in yet another difficult series of negotiations. South Korea, as a strong American ally and a potential global middle power, will continue to work closely with the United States. The two countries need to search for new tasks and functions for bilateral cooperation in a world of rapidly changing international relations, where “smart” alliance and “21st century international statecraft” are required.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

5463. The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Real Time Foreign Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

Author:
Fang Cai and Hyunsoo Joo
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper utilizes a unique high-frequency database to measure how exchange rates in nine emerging markets react to macroeconomic news in the U.S. and domestic economies from 2000 to 2006. We find that major U.S. macroeconomic news have a strong impact on the returns and volatilities of emerging market exchange rates, but many domestic news do not. Emerging market currencies have become more sensitive to U.S. news in recent years. We also find that market sentiment could sway the impact of news on these currencies systematically, as good (bad) news seems to matter more when optimism (pessimism) prevails. Market uncertainty also interacts with macroeconomic news in a statistically significant way, but its role varies across currencies and news.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5464. Turkey's Strategy in the Changing World

Author:
Atilla Sandikli
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
At the last quarter of 20th century, Cold War ended and technological advances in general with significant progresses in communication in particular have generated the phenomenon of globalization. The developments in financial markets and in real economy not only spread through geographical boundaries of nation states but also influence economic, technologic, and socio-cultural spheres decisively. National and international spaces as well as local and global domains are increasingly intertwined. Further beyond the interdependencies among states there are emerging new fields of cooperation and of common interests between societies. Democratic values and awareness on human rights are becoming universally shared norms as their applications expand conspicuously. Pluralist democratic regimes that respect human rights and that achieve a just income distribution provide better welfare systems for their publics. These regimes, in the long term, contribute stability and peace at domestic, regional and international levels. Accordingly, geopolitical weight of the states maintaining such regimes increases.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, European Union, Democracy, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

5465. Wage and Employment Effects of the Olympic Games in Atlanta 1996 Reconsidered

Author:
Arne Feddersen and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
We estimate the economic effects of the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games. Our difference in difference model checks for serial correlation and allows for a simultaneous test of level and trend effects, but otherwise follows HOTCHKISS, MOORE, & ZOBAY (2003) in this journal. We were not able to reconfirm their finding that the Games had significant positive employment effects. We do, however, reaffirm their result of no significant wage effects.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Sports, Olympics, and Wages
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5466. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: President Obama’s First 100 Days

Author:
Randall Schriver and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Befitting for a prominent ally, Secretary of State Hilary Clinton waited only a day to establish communication with her counterpart in Japan. While the gesture is surely appreciated in Tokyo, and the symbolism was not lost in Washington, the messages revealed little about the Administration’s intentions (if any) to take concrete steps to enhance the alliance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5467. The Taiwan Quadrennial Defense Review: Implications for U.S. – Taiwan Relations

Author:
Julia Famularo
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Although the recent cross-Strait political climate has improved, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has steadfastly refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan while shifting the cross-Strait military balance in its favor. Faced with such challenges, the Taiwan Quadrennial Defense Review is meant to increase military transparency while convincing Taiwanese legislators, the Chinese PLA, and U.S. policy makers and analysts alike that the Ministry of National Defense is firmly dedicated to creating new strategies and engaging in reforms that will prepare the military for future challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

5468. The Great Game in Space: China’s Evolving ASAT Weapons Programs and Their Implications for Future U.S. Strategy

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
If there is a great power war in this century, it will not begin with the sound of explosions on the ground and in the sky, but rather with the bursting of kinetic energy and the flashing of laser light in the silence of outer space. China is engaged in an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons drive that has profound implications for future U.S. military strategy in the Pacific.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Weapons, Space, and Satellite
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

5469. China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability: the anti-ship ballistic missile challenge to U.S. maritime operations in the Western Pacific and beyond

Author:
Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) challenge could alter the strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. An effective ASBM and supporting maritime surveillance network would diminish the effectiveness of carrier-based assets, such as the F/A-18 E/F.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Weapons, and Maritime
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

5470. To Curtail the Iranian Nuclear Threat, Change Tehran's Threat Perceptions

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology, and possibly nuclear weapons, stems from its complicated threat environment and the historical grievances it harbors concerning the United States. Tehran now faces large numbers of U.S. troops in its neighbors to the west and east with few regional allies. The most productive path for averting nuclear weapons development in Iran is for Washington to seek to alter Iran’s threat perceptions.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

5471. Strategic Missile Defense: A Reality Check

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Strategic Missile Defense offers no real disincentive for rogue regimes such as North Korea or Iran to develop or use ballistic missiles, nor does it offer any protection against the more acute threat of terrorist groups smuggling weapons of mass destruction into the United States. Instead, the aggressive pursuit of strategic missile defense makes it more difficult to constrain the potential offensive nuclear threat from Russia and China.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and United States of America

5472. Preventive Military Action: The Worst Way to Deal With Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Although the possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons is a major concern for Israel and the United States, leaving the "military option" on the table is counterproductive. Preventive military action by either country against Iran's nuclear facilities would only delay, rather than halt, Tehran's nuclear program, and it would cause Iran to retaliate against the United States as well as Israel. The aftermath of such an attack would be disastrous for the U.S. position in the region-particularly for relations with Israel and with Iraq-and its position in the wider world.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

5473. Is There Time to Prevent an Iranian Nuclear Weapon?

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The Obama administration has identified September as a time for reassessing its approach to negotiation with Tehran over Iran's nuclear program. It is imperative that this reassessment is based on a realistic appraisal of Iran's weaponization capabilities and limitations and not fall prey to politically motivated hyperbole. Iran's nuclear program is undeniably bringing that country closer to an ability to construct nuclear weapons-bad news for the region, the United States, and the world. Yet, a nuclear-armed Iran is years, not months, away, which is ample time for negotiating an outcome that prevents Iran from becoming a nuclear-weapon state while strengthening the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5474. Dealing With Long-Range Missile Threats: It's All About Russia

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The nearly 2,000 nuclear warheads on Russian ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles constitute the sole near-term existential threat to the United States. The U.S. response to this threat has been to maintain the nuclear war-fighting posture adopted during the Cold War. Yet, this posture does not lead toward an improvement in U.S. security; it merely reinforces Russia’s incentive to persist in its own anachronistic security calculus. The New START and a transformational post-Cold War Nuclear Posture Review would clear the path for major U.S. and Russian arms reductions, laying the foundation for a rejuvenated effort to halt nuclear nonproliferation and for engaging other nuclear-weapon states in arms control.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

5475. Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin's Mace' Capability

Author:
Andrew S. Erickson, William S. Murray, and Lyle J. Goldstein
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
After a lengthy hiatus-lasting nearly six centuries—China is reemerging as a maritime power, this time with an emphasis on undersea warfare. Between 1996 and 2006, the Chinese navy took delivery of more than thirty submarines. These vessels include two new classes of nuclear submarines-the advanced Song-class diesel submarines and the Yuan class of diesel boats which, according to some reports, was a surprise for U.S. intelligence. Above and beyond this ambitious naval construction pro- gram, the People's Republic of China (PRC) received during 2005-06 an additional eight formidable Kilo-class submarines (and associated weaponry), which were purchased in 2002, to add to the four it already operated. A new nuclear submarine base on Hainan Island may well herald a new era of more extended Chinese submarine operations.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, and Mine Warfare
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

5476. New York City's Preparedness for Terrorism (and Catastrophic Natural Disasters)

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Sooner or later, somewhere or other, another natural disaster will strike America, be it a hurricane, a tornado, an earthquake, or a flood. Sooner or later, somewhere or other, terrorists will attempt to strike America again. Indeed, many experts believe that the threat of another attack is rising. 1 Al Qaeda is resurgent, having reconstituted itself along the Afghan-Pakistan border. 2 And, recent history shows that terrorists are especially prone to strike during the transition from one administration to another or early in the term of a new government. Adding to our vulnerability, the nation is now bogged down in two wars and groaning under mounting debt, while our economy is sinking from the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Topic:
Security, Natural Disasters, Financial Crisis, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States of America

5477. Sunni and Shi'a Terrorism: Differences that Matter

Author:
Thomas F. Lynch III
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
There are significant and little appreciated differences in the trajectory of Sunni extremist terrorism and that of Shi’a extremism. The differences exist across six key areas that impact American policy considerations, especially in light of steadily escalating tensions with Iran. First and foremost, Sunni radicals and Shi’a extremists differ in the overall approach and main objectives for their use of terror. The former tend to operate in a continuous, mid‐to‐high intensity manner, seeing war against infidels and apostates as a perennial condition featuring overlapping waves. Outside of an ongoing and seemingly open‐ended campaign against Israel, terrorist attacks by Shi’a groups have by and large featured discrete terror campaigns tethered to state and organizational objectives. Second, Sunni terrorists and Shi’a extremists manifest different patterns for recruiting terrorist operatives and developing terrorist missions. Shi’a terrorists, unlike their Sunni counterparts, enjoy direct state support and for that reason are far more likely to originate from Iranian embassies, consulates and state‐run businesses. Third, despite holding a minority viewpoint within the wider Sunni Islamic community, Sunni extremists, especially Salafi‐Jihadis, rely more extensively on the support of their coreligionist expatriate communities in facilitating terrorist activities. Fourth, while employing similar tactics and methods, Shi’a terrorist groups have shown a much greater propensity to kidnap innocents to barter, while Sunni extremists more frequently abduct to kill. Fifth, Shi’a terror groups exhibit a much higher incidence of targeted assassinations for specific political gain, rather than the high‐casualty killings featured in Sunni terrorism, and particularly of the Salafi‐Jihadist variant. Finally, each sect’s extremists manage publicity and propaganda differently. The Sunni approach to information management tends to feature doctrine and resources geared to take immediate credit and widely amplify a terrorist event. Shi’a terrorists, while not averse to normal media publicity and amplification, by and large take a much lower‐key approach.
Topic:
Terrorism and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

5478. The Iranian Intentions behind Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:
Michael Bell and Mahjoob Zweiri
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
China welcomed Iran’s desire to strengthen cooperation in all spheres with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) following its official application in April 2007 to become a full member. With the SCO currently growing into strategic alliance between several of the worlds leading energy producers and two of its most hungry consumers; the United States saw an opportunity to establish itself in the region and therefore lobbied for observer status in 2005, however the request was denied. Since then, we have seen the SCO assume an ideological mantle of growing anti-Americanism. Committed to establishing a new international political and economic order, the association of East Asian states known as the SCO was founded as an intergovernmental organization in Shanghai on15th June, 2001. Its six founding countries; China, Russia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan holding roles as country observers, have asppired to mitigate the influence of US power in the region, therefore Iran’s application for full membbership has crucial, and possibly underlying aspects to its reasoning. Therefore we would like to present some information about the SCO to specifically present the benefits Iran would gain by full membership.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Economy, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

5479. Unprecedented Projected Nuclear Growth in the Middle East: Now Is the Time to Create Effective Barriers to Proliferation

Author:
David Albright and Andrea Scheel
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
Large civil plutonium stocks are set to accumulate for the first time in the wider Middle East over the next two decades. Countries in this conflict-prone region are planning the construction of at least 12 to 13 new nuclear power reactors (Table 1). Using a simple calculation to determine the expected plutonium discharge annually from these reactors, ISIS estimates that regional civil plutonium production could total more than 13,000 kilograms, or 13 tonnes by 2020, and nearly 45 tonnes by 2030 (Table 2). Given that just 8 kg of plutonium is enough to fabricate a nuclear weapon, this figure is significant. These quantities indicate that by 2020 the region may possess enough plutonium for almost 1,700 nuclear weapons. To be usable in a nuclear weapon, this plutonium must first be separated from the irradiated fuel in reprocessing plants. Middle Eastern countries may seek to purchase civil reprocessing plants from suppliers or build them using their domestic capabilities and equipment purchased from abroad. To reduce the risk of proliferation in the Middle East and help lay the basis for a regionwide nuclear weapon free zone (NWFZ), the United States must ensure that plutonium is not separated from irradiated reactor fuel, insist on adequate international inspections of these countries, including the adoption of the Additional Protocol, and develop mechanisms to remove spent fuel from the region. Absent such conditions, the incoming administration should discourage the development of nuclear power.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

5480. A Solution for the US–Iran Nuclear Standoff

Author:
William Luers, Thomas R. Pickering, and Jim Walsh
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The recent National Intelligence Estimate’s conclusion that Tehran stopped its efforts to develop nuclear weap- ons in 2003, together with the significant drop in Iranian activity in Iraq, has created favorable conditions for the US to hold direct talks with Iran on its nuclear program. The Bush administration should act on this opportunity, if for no other reason than that its current position is growing weaker, and without such an initiative, Iran will continue its efforts to produce nuclear fuel that might, in the future, be used to build nuclear weapons. Currently, Iran has approximately three thousand centrifuges, which it has used to produce small test batches of uranium that has been enriched to a low level (which cannot be used for nuclear weapons). Until now, Iranian engineers have not successfully operated a centrifuge cas- cade (a collection of centrifuges working together) at full capacity—which, as a practical matter, would be needed to enrich nuclear fuel to the level necessary either to establish an effective nuclear energy program or to manufacture nuclear weapons. But the Iranian government has declared its ambition to build more than 50,000 centrifuges, and recent reports also suggest that Tehran is testing a modified “P-2” centrifuge, a more advanced version of its existing centrifuge technology, which can produce a larger volume of enriched uranium. We propose that Iran’s efforts to produce enriched uranium and other related nuclear activities be conducted on a multilateral basis, that is to say jointly managed and operated on Iranian soil by a consortium including Iran and other governments. This proposal provides a realistic, work- able solution to the US–Iranian nuclear standoff. Turning Iran’s sensitive nuclear activities into a multinational program will reduce the risk of proliferation and create the basis for a broader discussion not only of our disagreements but of our common interests as well.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5481. Wilson and the Founders: The Roots of Liberal Foreign Policy

Author:
Ted Widmer
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
We can’t do much better than reclaiming the Declaration of Independence as a fundamental foreign policy document in American history. We have a tendency to read it in a simplistic way, and to think of it only as a sort of airy declaration of what were then human rights, and a declaration of separation from England. But, in fact, the founders had a fairly well-articulated sense of what they were doing with foreign policy, and a fairly revolutionary sense of their foreign policy. So I’m quite interested in how Woodrow Wilson rediscovers the founders and makes them relevant for his time. This thinking about Wilson began for me about ten years ago when I came to be a speechwriter in the second term of Bill Clinton’s presidency. I was quite interested in which presidents were considered historically interesting to Clinton and quickly figured out it was John F. Kennedy, obviously, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. a little less obviously, and Teddy Roosevelt, who was a huge influence on Bill Clinton, and always has been. It was a time in the 1990s when a lot of very favorable books were coming out about Teddy Roosevelt, and it was an attractive time to be thinking about him. At the same time, I felt Wilson was completely ignored. I don’t remember Clinton ever talking about Wilson. In the collected speeches of Bill Clinton—it’s something like eighteen very fat volumes, the man enjoys speaking—if we looked up Wilson, I’m sure we could find a few references, but very few.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5482. Wilson, Bush, and the Evolution of Liberal Foreign Policy

Author:
Tony Smith
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The first subject to discuss in considering the future of the liberal inter- nationalist agenda is the importance of the democratization project to the definition of Wilsonianism. The second is the meaning of multilat- eralism. In the first case, Thomas Knock and Anne-Marie Slaughter argue in a forthcoming volume that democratization was never an important part of Wilsonianism; that, instead, multilateralism is the key to liberal interna- tionalism. On the basis of this argument, they come to the conclusion that the Bush Doctrine is not in the Wilsonian tradition. In my contribution to this volume,1 I object to this denigration of the place of democracy in liberal internationalism as being fundamentally illogical. Accordingly, I find the Bush Doctrine easily identifiable as Wilsonian. I argue for the centrality of democracy to the Wilsonian project because it seems clear that the microfoundations for a regime in society are critical to the ability of those states that participate in multilateral organizations to do so effectively. That is, in order to function effectively, ultimately to provide for a peaceful world order, a multilateral organization needs to be dominated by democratic states, known for their rule-abiding behavior, their transparency, predictability, and accountability. Wilson wanted the League of Nations to be a League under the control of democracies and concerned with expanding this form of government,2 but then in late February 1919 at Versailles, he abandoned that idea. From a liberal internationalist perspective, the result of the League’s character was that it was undermined not only by the failure of the United States to join, but also by the role played in it by autocratic states. It is worth adding that in his drafts of the Pan American Union some three years earlier, Wilson had also looked forward to a community of American states based on the consent of the governed. In a word, a world of peace was necessarily a world dominated by what today is often called “market democracies,” a type of social, economic, and political order that Wilson argued was fundamentally different from and better than any alternative order. In such an order the place of democratic governments was central.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5483. Wilson’s Radical Vision for Global Governance

Author:
Erez Manela
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
In recent years, Woodrow Wilson has returned to feature promi- nently in the public discourse on the role of the United States in the world. For students of U.S. foreign relations, this is hardly a sur- prising development. Wilson was responsible for articulating a vision of the U.S. role in the world—usually described as “liberal interna- tionalism”—that has remained, despite well-known flaws and scores of critics over the years, dominant in shaping American rhetoric and self-image, if not always policies, vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Competing foreign policy postures, such as isolationism or “national interest” realism, have surely been influential in particular eras and contexts. But they have failed to match the ideological and popular appeal of liberal internationalism, which has echoed so compellingly the most basic ideas many Americans hold about who they are, what their country is about, and what it should stand for in the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Liberalism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5484. Iran-U.S.: The Case for Transformation

Author:
Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini and John Tirman
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Thirty years of enmity, disruption, and brinksmanship have yielded very little worthwhile in the relationship between Iran and the United States. The policies in both capitals toward the other are essentially bankrupt and dysfunctional. Each clings to their quiver of grievances against the other, letting the past dictate the future to the detriment of both countries. It may be time to turn this animus on its head—seeking a broad accommodation— and an opportunity for transformational diplomacy. While ample sources of suspicion and distrust have fed this simmering hostility, these sources do not warrant the war footing, attempts at isolation, political violence, and rhetoric of a looming Armageddon that mark the U.S.-Iran tangle. Both countries suf- fer high costs stemming from the confrontation. These two major states, one far more powerful than the other, are bound to compete and test each other, but in a region rife with instability, they also need each other. Iranians are weary of the cacophony of hatred. In America, the Iraq war is still a nightmare and the public is in no mood for more. A comprehensive concordat instead would serve the U.S. and Iran and help steady a very rickety part of the world. What the change is and how it is engineered are crucial, however. There is an appli- cable lesson from diplomatic history: bold and sweeping transformation may be prefera- ble—more successful and, paradoxically, easier to engineer—to small, incremental steps. Whether there is the political acumen in the leadership of either country to initiate such transformative diplomacy is arguable. But the logic of a new concordat is powerful, especially if seen through an unemotional lens of national interests and the security of the United States and Iran.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5485. Does the “Surge” Explain Iraq’s Improved Security?

Author:
Jon R. Lindsay
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Sen. John McCain has long advocated “sustained and substantial” troop increases,1 attacking Sen. Barack Obama’s position on drawing down forces. Obama for his part recently stated that the surge has “succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated” and “beyond our wildest dreams.”2 Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, commander of Multi- National Corps Iraq during the surge, told a Heritage Foundation audience in March 2008, “I think it’s safe to say that the surge of Coalition forces—and how we employed those forces—have broken the cycle of sectarian violence in Iraq.”3 While the surge was quite controversial in its inception,4 it now seems that “success has a thou- sand fathers.” Indeed, since the deployment starting in January 2007 of an additional 30,000 troops (five addi- tional Army brigades primarily in and around Baghdad and 4,000 Marines in Anbar Province, rising to a high-water mark of 171,000 U.S. troops in Iraq by October 2007), the drop in vio- lence has been remarkable. From December 2006 to August 2008, monthly insurgent-initiated attacks have dropped from over 5,600 to 800, U.S. troop fatalities from 112 to 23, and Iraqi civilian fatalities from 3,500 to 500. Even though we’re hardly out of the woods, the troop surge is clearly correlated with a major decrease in violence.5 Correlation, of course, is not causation. Lt. Gen. Odierno is right to highlight the employment of surge forces in addition to the increase in their numbers. The renewed focus on providing security to the Iraqi population—by pushing troops out of sprawling Forward Operating Bases and proactively controlling movement within major cities—has truly been a change for the bet- ter. Nevertheless, there are factors above and beyond additional troops and better counter-insur- gency tactics that may account for the drop in violence. These include the Sunni Awakening movements that emerged in Anbar province prior to the surge, the tragic efficacy of sectarian killing in 2006, the Shia Mahdi Army cease-fire announced and renewed by Moqtada al-Sadr, and operations by other U.S. organizations not associated with the surge.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5486. The U.S. and Iran in Afghanistan: Policy Gone Awry

Author:
Barnett R. Rubin and Sara Batmanglich
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Afghanistan is one of several contexts in which the long-term common interests of the U.S. and Iran have been over- shadowed by the animus originating in the 1953 CIA-led coup in Iran and the Iranian revolution of 1979, to the detriment of the interests of the U.S., Iran, and Afghanistan. This confronta- tion has served the interests of the Pakistan military, Taliban, and al-Qaida. Re-establishing the basis for U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Afghanistan would provide significant additional leverage over Pakistan, on whose territory the leadership of both the Taliban and al-Qaida are now found. During the first half of the Cold War (until the 1978 coup in Afghanistan and the 1979 revolution in Iran), Afghanistan was a non-aligned country with a Soviet-trained army wedged between the USSR and U.S. allies. In the 1970s, under the Nixon Doctrine, the U.S. supported efforts by the Shah of Iran to use his post-1973 oil wealth to sup- port efforts by Afghan President Muhammad Daoud to lessen Kabul’s dependence on the USSR. This ended with the successive overthrow of both Daoud and the Shah in 1978 and 1979. A U.S. close partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan emerged as the primary means of maintaining U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf and its eastern flank. Support for Sunni Islamists in Afghanistan and an Islamist-oriented military regime in Pakistan formed parts of this strategy to repulse the USSR from its occupation of Afghanistan, begun in late 1979, and to isolate Iran.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5487. The Global Financial Crisis and Obstacles to U.S. Leadership

Author:
David Singer
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The regulatory environment in the U.S., however, is likely to change. The Treasury’s blueprint calls for the disman- tling of OTS, the enhancement of the Fed’s supervisory authority, and the creation of a national insurance regulator to replace the 50 separate regulators. Regulatory consolida- tion in the U.S. might be the most important catalyst for the creation of new international regulatory standards in banking. Consider the immense challenges of creating a global standard—which most likely cannot occur without U.S. support—when the agencies within the U.S. are at odds with one another! Ironically, U.S. investment banks themselves may have cleared one obstacle to international coopera- tion: the remaining free-standing securities firms (Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) have opted to transform themselves into bank holding companies. This move reduces the SEC’s influence and gives the Fed a more uniform role in supervising financial institutions. Nevertheless, there is still consider- able fragmentation in the regulation of a range of activities that clearly have an important bearing on the stability of the banking system. If today’s financial crisis triggers the institutional consolidation of domestic financial regulation, then fruitful international negotiations will be more likely in the future. But until such consolidation occurs, the welter of U.S. regulatory agencies will face considerable obstacles in addressing the complicated inter- actions between banking, disintermediation, and capital markets that are at the root of today’s financial crisis. And the fragmentation of accountability among regulators and policymakers will continue to hamper U.S. leadership in preventing such a terrible crisis from happening again.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Financial Institutions, and Banking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5488. Recovering the Liberal Foreign Policy Tradition

Author:
Nick Bromell and John Tirman
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Over the course of the seemingly endless 2008 electoral campaign, Barack Obama chose not to formulate a coherent and distinctive foreign policy. Aside from calling for a redeployment of military resources from Iraq to Afghanistan and expressing a greater willingness to open talks with countries like Iran, he never explained to voters exactly how he would manage foreign affairs differently from John McCain or, for that matter, from George W. Bush.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Leadership, Liberalism, and Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5489. State-Building and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
Jeremy Allouche
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Since the early 1990s, state-building has become an important objective of American foreign policy. This can be explained by the fact that failed states have been perceived since the end of the Cold War as a major security concern. Under the Clinton administration, failed states were qualified as major threats to global security.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and State Building
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5490. Assessing External Effects of City Airports: Land Values in Berlin

Author:
Gabriel Ahlfeldt and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper employs a hedonic price model to explain standard land values in Berlin. Impact on land values is assessed for the two city airports situated in Berlin, Germany, Tempelhof and Tegel. Empirical results confirm expectations about the impact of various attributes on land values. Areas exposed to noise pollution of downtown airport Tempelhof sell at a discount of approximately 5-9% within a distance of 5000 m along the air corridor. No significantly negative impact was found for land values around Tegel Airport, which is located in a central, but less densely populated, area. Market access indicators created for all three Berlin airports in operation, including Berlin Schoenefeld International Airport, reveal clear location advantages in terms of accessibility of Tempelhof and Tegel compared to Schoenefeld Airport, where the new Berlin Brandenburg International Airport is about to be developed.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Land, and Airports
Political Geography:
Germany, Berlin, and United States of America

5491. Evolving Capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army: Consequences of Coercive Aerospace Power for U.S. Conventional Deterrence

Author:
Randall Schriver and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
How the PRC could apply force as an instrument of national power may be more significant than specific technical capabilities it develops and fields. An increasingly sophisticated arsenal of advanced weapon systems serves as an enabler for the PRC to expand its range of options for exercising coercive uses of force to resolve differences with democracies in the region.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Deterrence, Military, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Aerospace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

5492. From the ‘‘Red Juggernaut’’ to Iraqi WMD: Threat Inflation and How It Succeeds in the United States

Author:
Jeffrey M. Cavanaugh
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
JEFFREY M. CAVANAUGH analyzes the process of ‘‘threat inflation’’ in the United States by examining three positive cases and one negative case of threat inflation since 1945. He concludes that successful threat inflation and hawkish policies stem from the interaction of several factors.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5493. Crafting a US Response to the Emerging East Asia Free Trade Area

Author:
Christopher Martin
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Few would dispute Asia’s growing economic importance in the 21st century. While China and India have held the spotlight recently, their rise may not constitute the region’s most important economic shift. Japan is still by far the richest economy; while South Korea’s formidable industries are the envy of many. Furthermore, the ten-country coalition that makes up the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) boasts such economic dynamos as Singapore and Malaysia. Together, China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN (commonly referred to as ASEAN+3) account for 20 percent of global output, nearly 20 percent of global trade, and hold well over 50 percent of the world’s international monetary reserves. Moreover, the region is ripe for growth. It accounted for 31.4 percent of the world’s population in 2005 (more than Europe and the Americas combined) and the IMF’s 2008–2011 outlook figure clocked growth at 7.9 percent for Asia, dwarfing the 2.5 percent for major developed countries. How would the world’s economic landscape shift if these thirteen countries were to join together in some form of economic union? More importantly, how should the United States respond to such an event? It is a question the US needs to answer today.
Topic:
Economy, Free Trade, Industry, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and United States of America

5494. A Concert in Energy Security: Building Trans-Atlantic Cooperation to Confront a Growing Threat

Author:
Richard G. Lugar
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
It is a pleasure to be here today at the American Council on Germany. As a member of the Council’s Congressional Advisory Committee, I applaud the effort that brought this group of leaders together to discuss the challenges that we face and the need for a unified response. In today’s geo-strategic environment, few threats are more perilous than the potential cutoff of energy supplies. The use of energy as a weapon is not a theoretical threat of the future; it is a current reality. Those who possess energy are using it as leverage against their neighbors. In the years ahead, the most likely source of armed conflict in the European theater and the surrounding regions will be energy scarcity and manipulation. We all hope that the economics of supply and pricing in the energy market will be rational and transparent. We hope that nations with abundant oil and natural gas will reliably supply these resources in normal market transactions to those who need them. We hope that pipelines, sea lanes, and other means of transmission will be safe. We hope that energy cartels will not be formed to limit available supplies and manipulate markets. We hope that energy-rich nations will not exclude or confiscate productive foreign energy investments in the name of nationalism. And we hope that vast energy wealth will not be a source of corruption within nations whose people desperately ask their governments to develop and deliver the benefits of this wealth broadly to society. Unfortunately, our experiences provide little reason to be confident that market rationality will be the governing force behind energy policy and transactions. The majority of oil and natural gas supplies and reserves in the world are not controlled by efficient, privately owned companies. Geology and politics have created oil and natural gas superpowers. According to PFC Energy, foreign governments control up to 79 percent of the world’s oil reserves through their national oil companies. These governments set prices through their investment and production decisions, and they have wide latitude to shut off the taps for reasons of politics and power.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Transatlantic Relations, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

5495. A Period of Turbulent Change: Spanish-US Relations Since 2002

Author:
Manuel Iglesias-Cavicchioli
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
The purpose of this essay is to show the dramatic shifts that the Spanish-US relationship has undergone from 2002 to date, by trying to explain their causes, implications, and consequences. The following text offers a critical vision of Spanish foreign policy in the last four years and suggests some possibilities to redefine the current relationship with the US Government in a more constructive way.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, North America, and United States of America

5496. Democratization in the 21st Century: What Can the United States Do?

Author:
Arthur A. Goldsmith
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
The Winter/Spring 2005 issue of this journal was devoted to “Democratization in the 21st Century” in which the general consensus was that the United States should assist the unfolding worldwide trend toward democracy. The president of the National Endowment for Democracy, Carl Gershman argued, “that it is appropriate and desirable for the United States to provide moral, political, technical, and financial support to people who are striving to achieve democracy.”1 Furthermore, Alan W. Dowd of the Sagamore Institute for Policy Research wrote of “America’s unique role” in the world and its “natural inclination to promote free government.”2 Although the United States seems encouraged to promote democracy worldwide, left largely unsaid by many are the specific means available to the United States for promoting democracy. Transitions from authoritarian rule are driven by internal forces, and the United States should not take for granted that an external actor may not be capable of significantly influencing internal forces within another state. How large an influence the United States can have is an empirical question. The democratization forum in the Whitehead Journal mostly cited small-N case studies, but these studies have contrary implications depending on the cases one selects.3 LargeN quantitative studies paint a generally more pessimistic picture of externally generated democracy. Had the large-N literature been consulted, the democratization forum might have paid greater attention to the practical difficulty of changing repressive states from the outside-in. This essay synthesizes the latest cross-national academic research to highlight how problematic it is for one country to promote open government in another country. It needs to be understood, however, that although the evidence challenges naïve, favorable assumptions, this article is not implying the international community should reject all efforts to promote democracy as futile or counterproductive. Certain external activities may prove effective where conditions are ripe, but the data suggest we keep our expectations modest and be prepared to learn from setbacks.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5497. Playing the Field: Alleviating US Energy Dependency on the Persian Gulf with Alternative Partners

Author:
Michael Coffey
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Energy security is poised to become as contentious an issue in the 21st century as ideology was in the 20th. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for post-Soviet Russia to reclaim its great power status as an energy hegemon that doles out subsidized energy to friendly states and allies, implying that unfriendly states will find themselves short of such supplies in times of crisis. Chinese state-owned oil companies are on a procurement spree worldwide, as Beijing acquires oil and gas from rogue states otherwise ostracized by the world community, buying up stakes in future developments to ensure a long-term flow of energy. President George Bush committed the United States to energy independence (and even self-sufficiency) in his 2006 State of the Union address to Congress when he expressed a desire to make US reliance on Middle Eastern oil “a thing of the past.”1 Despite the president’s optimism, the goal of eliminating America’s dependency on Persian Gulf oil remains far-fetched. Energy independence for the United States will require as-yet undeveloped technologies and resources and, until these goals are realized, the United States must counterbalance current energy consumption trends by boosting supplies from non–Middle East producers. What follows is an assessment of countries outside of the Middle East that will have a direct impact on Washington’s energy security as the United States works to alleviate its Persian Gulf dependency. Some potential secondary producers of oil and gas that are expected to alleviate US dependency are illustrated in case studies on Azerbaijan, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Trinidad & Tobago. Many of these energy partners share key aspects of insecurity common to developing states; they are often engaged in two of Charles Tilly’s four characteristic state activities.2 Extraction, primarily conducted through energy rents, allows these regimes to acquire the resources necessary to battle internal rivals. Eliminating internal threats, or state making, is a common preoccupation of developing states. The current international system usually obviates (or precludes) war making against external rivals. Thus, US security assistance to these countries can play a crucial role in supporting the state making process. Support for states that have a limited capacity to deal with internal threats, precisely because they are rentier states in a formative phase, will help the United States and its energy partners achieve their ultimate security goals.3 Development aid and military training in the Caucasus will likely prove beneficial to US interests; security/intelligence cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago will help safeguard energy in the Caribbean against terrorist threats; US policymakers will face tougher challenges in Venezuela and Nigeria, where President Hugo Chavez seems willing to cut off US oil and the resource-rich Niger River Delta region threatens secession.
Topic:
Security, Development, Oil, Energy, Dependency, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

5498. Brand USA: Democratic Propaganda in the Third Social Space

Author:
Belinda H. Y. Chiu
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Traditional approaches to foreign relations are being replaced by marketing strategies to brand nations by enhancing their image and reputation. No longer is this responsibility limited to government tourism boards. Rather, because “every nation is already a brand,”1 the responsibility to create positive perceptions of the nationstate has fallen on the shoulders of departments of foreign affairs and diplomacy. As an increasingly important tool to promote foreign interests and to attract allies—or in marketing terms, loyal customers—branding allows nation-states to craft and influence how others perceive its political, economic, and social systems & values. Branding is everywhere. But what is it? Brand equity of a product or service is the set of value-added assets that is communicated and strengthened by building name recognition, customer loyalty, and perceived quality. Although it had its beginnings in the consumer product industry, it is no longer restricted to the CocaColas and Proctor & Gambles of the world. Branding has become a tool of public diplomacy. Citizens and leaders of foreign nations have existing ideas about other countries, be they positive or negative. In a technologically-advanced and globalized world, the branded nation has added pressure to be strongly aware of its own brand.2 A nation’s brand can be strengthened by favorable policies, such as debt relief and foreign aid, or conversely, compromised by economic embargoes and declarations of war. Like consumer goods, smart brand management is essential to maintaining a positive impression and build loyal followers. However, as with consumer goods, smart brand management can only sell the product. While branding can change perceptions about the product, it cannot change the product itself. This paper will first briefly discuss the “third social space” in a democracy, the public space for media and marketing. According to Habermas, this third social space sits between the first (the state), and the second (the market, or private sector). Second, it will explore the characteristics of nation branding and its importance to foreign relations, examining the case of Brand USA, with a particular focus on the Shared Values Initiative targeted toward the Arab and Muslim worlds. Finally, it will discuss whether branding has democratic appeal or propagandistic flavor. While there exists skepticism that this process has too much of a Machiavellian feel to it, branding nations is a useful public diplomacy and relations tool, as long as it does not misrepresent facts.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, Propaganda, and Marketing
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

5499. A Case Study in Declining American Hegemony: Flawed Policy Concerning the ICC

Author:
Eric K. Leonard
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
The primary question that this article engages is whether the Bush administration’s opposition to the Rome Statute is in the national interest of the United States. More broadly speaking, does the Bush administration’s opposition to the ICC serve as an example of how a hegemon, founded upon a particular ideology, may undermine its own hegemonic status? The international community established the ICC to prosecute individuals accused of committing the most heinous international crimes—genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.6 Given the fact that traditional American allies and every member state of the European Union, with the exception of the Czech Republic, support this Court, is active opposition to the ICC’s existence a prudent position, or will such a position simply ostracize the United States from the rest of the international community and undermine its ability to maintain America’s hegemonic position? In order to address these questions, this article begins with an examination of the concept of hegemony, along with its contested definition. It then proceeds to an analysis of American hegemony, including the basis for its continued preeminence. This article then returns to the ICC and examines this institution within the framework of the hegemonic discourse. Finally, it provides policy recommendations concerning the United States’ position towards the ICC and draws upon this case as a starting point for policy recommendations concerning other liberal international institutions.
Topic:
International Law, Hegemony, International Criminal Court (ICC), Rome Statute, and International Institutions
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5500. Fixing Failing States: The New Security Agenda

Author:
Pauline H. Baker
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Weak and failing states rank among the world’s greatest threats to international peace and security today. While major threats to world peace used to come mainly from ideological, military, or economic competition among competing states, in modern times lethal threats are growing within states from communal tensions among rival factions, extremists groups with radical political agendas, and faltering regimes clinging to power and asserting militaristic ambitions. These are the driving forces of a growing world disorder.1 Recent events highlight this paradigm shift in the strategic environment. North Korea is a failing state with an inward-looking regime and a negative view of the world. Its own insecurities, including its fear of a US invasion, are motivating it to pursue nuclear capabilities that have increased its isolation further and exacerbated tensions.2 Lebanon is a weak state that successfully cast off fifteen years of Syrian military occupation, but was unable to assert its sovereignty and fill the vacuum left behind. Hezbollah used that opportunity to assert itself as a “state within a state,” with dual power bases in the government and in the south, where its autonomous security forces launched a devastating war with Israel in July 2006. Then there is Sudan, a country with the highest risk of internal violence that has stonewalled effective international action to stop the continuing humanitarian crisis in Darfur, described by the US State Department as genocide. 3 Internal weaknesses within these states have increased the threat of nuclear proliferation, precipitated an interstate war, and worsened an ongoing humanitarian crisis, respectively. Though the origins of state weakness go back decades, the curtain was raised on the era of failing states—if one can call it that—by the tragedy of September 11, 2001. One year after the biggest terrorist attack on the US in history, the 2002 US National Security Strategy stated that America is threatened more by failing states than it is by conquering states, overturning decades of US national security thinking. Overnight, we went from looking at security through a “big power” lens to seeing it from a “small power” lens. Much of the rest of the world has come to see security challenges from that perspective as well.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Fragile/Failed State, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America