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5351. Do Small Businesses Still Prefer Community Banks?

Author:
Allen N. Berger, William Goulding, and Tara Rice
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We formulate and test hypotheses about the role of bank type small versus large, single-market versus multimarket, and local versus nonlocal banks in banking relationships. The conventional paradigm suggests that "community banks" small, single market, local institutions are better able to form strong relationships with informationally opaque small businesses, while "megabanks" large, multimarket, nonlocal institutions tend to serve more transparent firms. Using the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finance (SSBF), we conduct two sets of tests. First, we test for the type of bank serving as the "main" relationship bank for small businesses with different firm and owner characteristics. Second, we test for the strength of these main relationships by examining the probability of multiple relationships and relationship length as functions of main bank type and financial fragility, as well as firm and owner characteristics. The results are often not consistent with the conventional paradigm, perhaps because of changes in lending technologies and deregulation of the banking industry.
Topic:
Business, Banks, Local, and Community
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5352. The Naval Nuclear Reactor Threat to the NPT

Author:
Greg Thielmann and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has long been a critical bulwark against the spread of nuclear weapons. Although preventing the production and accumulation of fissile material is an important part of this effort, the NPT does not explicitly regulate the production, use, and disposition of highly enriched uranium (HEU) for naval nuclear reactors. This exclusion poses a growing risk to achieving the nonproliferation goals of the treaty. While seeking to advance prospects for a fissile material cutoff treaty, the United States is continuing to design naval reactors for the world’s largest nuclear submarine fleet that are powered with weapons-grade uranium. While proclaiming its renunciation of any nuclear weapons ambitions, Brazil plans to build six nuclear submarines powered by uranium fuel that may be close to weapons grade. Neither the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nor important NPT member states have fully confronted the proliferation implications of excluding naval reactor fuel from safeguards. The IAEA and NPT members should take steps to minimize the use of HEU for any reason—a goal they declared just this month at a nuclear security conference in Vienna.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
Brazil, Global Focus, and United States of America

5353. Iran's Missile Program and Its Implications for U.S. Missile Defense

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Although plans for expanding U.S. strategic missile defenses focus on the Iranian ICBM threat, that threat is not emerging as was previously predicted. Iran conducted no long-range ballistic missile tests in 2012 and has not flown even the larger space launch vehicle that it displayed two years ago, which could have helped advance ICBM technology. Moreover, Tehran has still not decided to build nuclear weapons and continues to focus on short- and medium-range rather than longer-range ballistic missiles. It is, therefore, time to adapt U.S. missile defense plans accordingly by suspending the fourth phase of the European Phased Adaptive Approach. Doing so would remove an obstacle to negotiating further reductions in the strategic forces of Russia - the only country that poses an unambiguous existential threat to the United States.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Missile Defense, and ICBM
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5354. Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2010-2013 Report Card

Author:
Kelsey Davenport and Marcus Taylor
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The study, Assessing Progress on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament: 2010-2013 Report Card gives grades to China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, India, Israel, Pakistan—each of which possess nuclear weapons—and North Korea—which maintains a nuclear weapons capability—as well as Iran and Syria, which are under investigation for possible nuclear weapons-related activity.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Iran, India, Israel, North Korea, France, Syria, and United States of America

5355. Asia at a Tipping Point: Korea, The Rise of China, and the Impact of Leadership Transitions

Author:
Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
For over twenty years, the Korea Economic Institute (KEI) invited leading Korea and Asia scholars and experts from around the world for its annual academic symposium. Each year, KEI partnered with a leading university in the United States and organized a three-day conference covering Korea’s economy, politics, foreign affairs, and regional affairs. The event was held at a university campus and was open to the local academic community to participate in this world-class Korea conference. Starting in 2012, KEI embarked on a new initiative to reenergize this series and partner with the Association of Asian Studies (AAS) to incorporate the symposium within the AAS annual conference. To this end, KEI organized four conference panels, advertised KEI’s outreach work to over 3,000 conference participants at AAS, and raised the profile of the institute on a global stage. As before, KEI edited, compiled and published the research papers presented by the distinguished speakers at the symposium as part of our Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies series. A new addition to our endeavor is the involvement of Dr. Gilbert Rozman, the Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University, who worked tirelessly as the Editor-in-Chief for this Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies volume and consulted with us on forming the most reputable conference panels for this new initiative. His involvement not only raised the profile of this academic symposium series, but also heightened the quality and rigor of the volume for our subscribers’ benefit. This year’s volume is particularly rich with the dramatic leadership transitions within the Asia-Pacific region, the growing uncertainty of North Korea’s future, and the growing influence of China and South Korea globally. This year’s presenters covered a breadth of issues ranging from the political and security dynamics around the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia to increasingly contentious national identity and migration issues to the future of Asia-Pacific economic integration. Scholars from the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and China all contributed to this compilation. I trust you will not be disappointed by the scholarship and insights of these chapters.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and United States of America

5356. Asia-Pacific: Let's Get Back in the Ring

Author:
Hugh Stephens
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
At the November APEC summit, having cleared the way with President Obama, Stephen Harper publicly announced Canada’s formal interest in joining the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) trade talks. The US and others, while “welcoming” Canada’s interest, reiterated the high bar that new entrants (Mexico and Japan as well as Canada) will have to meet. The promise of the TPP is that it could form the basis for a much wider Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP), including China. Canada could have much more easily joined the TPP had it expressed interest back in 2008 when the door was open to expansion. At that time, Asia-Pacific was not on the radar in Ottawa, even for China which has now become a key country of interest for Mr. Harper. Canada has an Asia Pacific legacy that it has squandered through neglect. From the 1960s through early establishment of diplomatic relations with China in 1970, and beyond into the 1980s, Canada was considered, and acted like, a leader in the region. That interest seemed to peak, and then wane, after the 1997 Vancouver APEC summit. At the same time, the face of Canada was changing rapidly with a strong and steady influx of Asian immigrants. These cultural and ethnic ties have underpinned a new interest in doing business with Asia, but Canada has been slow off the mark. While we have negotiated free trade agreements with 9 countries in the past six years, not a single one has been in Asia. Meanwhile, Asia is rapidly integrating and establishing new architecture, from which Canada, alone among major Asia Pacific countries, is absent. The US is reaffirming its ties with Asia through security and trade ties. Australia is doing the same. Canada is endowed with the physical and human resources that should allow us to take full advantage of our place in the region. We can reestablish our credentials through a sustained leadership and a long-term strategy. There are signs that this may be happening. The time to do it is now.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Trade Policy, APEC, and TPP
Political Geography:
Canada, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

5357. The Dollar’s Influence in East Asia: Benevolent or Overbearing? A Comparative Answer in the U.S. Economic Aid and the Dollar Standard

Author:
Gloria Koo
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
There is no doubt that the United States has been a dominant economic power in the world. U.S. troops are deployed in the various corners of the world, and their military presence is often a strong force in propping up the status quo or a peaceful co-existence, possibly and hopefully more peaceful than otherwise. The U.S. has held an important role in the international system as a military power. But also in an economic sense, the U.S. has been a dominant leader. As a major consumer market and an investor, U.S. influence on the global economy is significant to say the least. This is especially true in East Asia. Through military alliance and economic aid, the U.S. crafted close relationships with East Asian countries and influenced their domestic policymaking. For example, as a provider of military and economic stability, the U.S. wielded much influence on domestic macroeconomic policies of Korea and Taiwan during the early industrialization years of 1950s-60s. The economic aid came with conditions, and Korea and Taiwan complied. Although explicit economic aid stopped in the late 1960s, other forms of assistance, for example loans, grants and technology transfers continued, and more importantly security alliances remained strong. The U.S. still holds much influence over Korea and Taiwan, as a military ally and a major trade partner. In the present day, Korea and Taiwan closely peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar and hold large currency reserves in dollars. As a result, macroeconomic stability of Korea and Taiwan depends largely on the stability of the dollar. In this way, the dollar’s influence on Korea and Taiwan is quite significant. Similar to but also different from the way that Korea and Taiwan depended on U.S. economic aid, they again depend on the dollar to anchor economic stability.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Investment, Currency, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

5358. Arab Uprisings: New Opportunities for Political Science

Author:
Eva Bellin, Lindsay Benstead, Nathan J. Brown, Nathan J. Brynen, and Melani Cammett
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The uprisings that swept the Arab world following the fall of Tunisia’s President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011 represented a stunning moment in the region’s political history. For political scientists specializing in the region, the events of the last year and a half represented an exhilarating moment of potential change but also an important opportunity to develop new research questions, engage in new comparisons, and exploit new data and information. The Arab uprisings challenged long-held theories dominant in the field, particularly about the resilience of authoritarian regimes, while opening up entirely new areas of legitimate social scientific inquiry. The Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) was created in 2010 in part to build the capacity of Middle East experts to engage and inform policy-makers, the public sphere, and other political scientists about the region. On May 29 to 30, 2012, POMEPS convened a group of leading political scientists who specialize in the Middle East for its third annual conference at George Washington University to discuss the opportunities and challenges that the Arab uprisings pose to the subfield. Participants were asked: “What new and innovative research questions do you think have become particularly urgent, feasible, or relevant? How would those research questions fit into wider debates in the field of political science?” This special POMEPS Briefing collects nearly two dozen of the memos written for the conference. The authors are all academic political scientists and Middle East specialists who speak Arabic and have lived in and studied Arab countries for extended periods. They include scholars at all career levels, from senior faculty at top universities to advanced graduate students still writing their dissertations. The memos reflect on a wide range of debates and paradigms within political science, and taken together lay out an impressive set of marching orders for the subfield. Graduate students looking for dissertation topics and junior faculty looking for articles that might make a big splash take note.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Democracy, Arab Spring, Political Science, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Middle East, Egypt, and United States of America

5359. Full Issue

Author:
Mojúbàolú Olufúnké Okome
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Ìrìnkèrindò: A Journal of African Migration
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
CONTENTS Editorial — Faith Wambura Ngunjiri……………………………………………………………1 Articles The Promise and Perils of Diaspora Partnerships: The Case of the U.S.-Based Liberian Diaspora — Osman Antwi-Boateng…………………………………………………………………………6 The Political Economy of Forced Economic Migration in Nigeria: Prospects and Challenges in the New Millennium — Shambhavi V. Murthy Gopalkrishna and Samuel O. Oloruntoba……..41 Racial Differences in the Tempo of Assimilation for White and Black African-Born in the United States — Stephanie J. Nawyn……………………………………………………………………69 Poetry Ghosts of our Past, Echo our Future — Jackie Copeland-Carson…………………...………….91
Topic:
Migration, Political Economy, Race, Diaspora, Refugees, Assimilation, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Nigeria, and United States of America

5360. Chinese Direct Investment in California

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
A new report entitled Chinese Direct Investment in California published by the Asia Society finds that California has attracted more Chinese investment deals than any other U.S. state but remains fifth in the nation in total investment value. Negligible before 2008, Chinese investment in the state is growing at triple-digit levels and could reach $60 billion by 2020, but only if the state and private sector do a better job working together to attract Chinese capital. The report is co-authored by Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann of the Rhodium Group and builds on a 2011 Asia Society study, entitled An American Open Door?: Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment, which looked more broadly at Chinese investment into the U.S. The new report is the most comprehensive study to date of Chinese investment in the Golden State and in the U.S. overall. It finds that the potential gains for California and China are enormous but that success is far from guaranteed. U.S.-China relations remain tense and protectionism is a serious threat. At the state level, California has had a mixed record of promoting its economic strengths. The report urges policy and business leaders in the state to do better to out-compete other states, and nations, that seek to increase their own shares of the Chinese outbound investment surge. Four decades ago, Japanese direct investment in the U.S. was at a similar stage. Now, it totals some $300 billion, employs 700,000 Americans, and undergirds a strong, stable U.S.-Japan relationship. Investment and trade between the U.S. and China show even greater promise today. Compared to the rest of the U.S., the report finds that Chinese investment in California is disproportionately from private rather than state-owned enterprises, greenfield rather than M&As, and strongest in high-tech and high-value services — areas that the Chinese government and private sector have targeted for accelerated growth. Of the $1.3 billion in Chinese investment in the state since 2000, Southern California leads the state in investment with 69 deals totaling $618 million. The San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley/South Bay regions are the second and third most attractive regions for Chinese investors.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, Business, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
China, Asia, California, North America, and United States of America

5361. La relation Pakistan – Etats-Unis : un patron et son client au bord de la rupture ? (The Pakistan-US relations : A relationship on the brink ?)

Author:
Christophe Jaffrelot
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
During the Cold War the US-Pakistan relationship was one in which the US considered Pakistan as a necessary part of its effort to contain communism in Asia while Pakistan considered its relationship with the US as strengthening its position vis a vis India. The high point in this relationship was during the Soviet-Afghan war. The US tried to renew this relationship after 9/11, although when Obama replaced GW Bush he stated his intention to move US-Pakistani relations off the security agenda which the Pentagone and the Pakistani army considered a priority. However, Obama rain into resistance from the Pakistani army and from the national security establishment in Washington- as can be seen from the security-oriented distribution of US aid. But not even in the area of security have the two nations been able truly to collaborate. To begin with, the strengthening of US-India relations angered Pakistan. Then Islamabad protected the Taliban in its fight with NATO. Finally, Obama violated Pakistani sovereignty (the Drone strikes in the tribal belt and the Ben Laden raid). These conflicting interest, however, do not necessary means the end of the relationship.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Peacekeeping, and State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

5362. Selling the Future in DC. Marketing Stability for International Security

Author:
Ariel Colonomos
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
What kind of future worlds do experts of international security envision? This paper studies the role of experts in DC's think tanks, a relatively small world socially and culturally highly homogeneous. It underlines the characteristics of this epistemic community that influence the way its analysts make claims about the future for security. The DC's marketplace of the future lacks diversity. The paradigms analysts use when they study international politics are very similar. Moreover, the range of issues they focus on is also relatively narrow. The paper highlights three main features of the relation between those who make claims about the future of security and those to whom these claims are addressed (mainly policymakers). First, it shows that, for epistemic but also for political reasons, the future imagined in think tanks is relatively stable and linear. This future also contributes to the continuity of political decisions. Second, the paper shows that think tanks are also "victims of groupthink", especially when they make claims about the future. Third, it underlines a paradox: scenarios and predictions create surprises. Claims about the future have a strong tunneling effect. They reinforce preexisting beliefs, create focal points, and operate as blinders when, inevitably, the future breaks away from its linear path.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, International Security, and State
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, Washington, and D.C.

5363. EU Privacy Regulation: Implications for U.S. and EI Law Enforcement

Author:
Carlton Forbes and Jacob Victor
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
In January 2012, the European Commission released drafts of two new pieces of legislation that would provide more stringent and more uniform regulation to the processing of electronic data relating to EU citizens. The proposed General Data Protection Regulation would govern the processing of data for general purposes, while the proposed Criminal Justice Directive would govern data processed in the specific context of criminal investigations. The Data Protection Regulation has proven controversial because of the significant number of requirements it imposes on private data processors, including requirements that the processor notify a consumer when her data is shared with a third party, and requirements that processors respect a number of new individual rights, such as the right of a consumer to request that her data be deleted (a.k.a. “the right to be forgotten”). Furthermore, the Regulation would mandate that many non-EU corporations would need to comply with its requirements when processing the data of EU citizens, or face harsh penalties. This memo summarizes the existing EU data protection regime, analyzes the changes proposed by the new Data Protection Regulation and Criminal Justice Directive, and explores the implications of this new legislation for U.S. criminal and national security investigations. We arrive at three main conclusions
Topic:
Law Enforcement, Law, European Union, Regulation, and Legal Theory
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

5364. UNCLOS Dispute Settlement in Context: The United States’ Record in International Arbitration Proceedings

Author:
Julia Brower, Christina Koningisor, Ryan Liss, and Michael Shih
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
The United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) establishes a compulsory dispute settlement regime for resolving disagreements between member states. Critics of the Convention have argued that the mandatory dispute resolution provisions force member states to cede too much control over the dispute resolution process to an international body. They have also argued that the dispute resolution process is biased against the United States, and that the United States tends to fare poorly in international arbitration proceedings. This report addresses the first criticism by examining possible exceptions to mandatory dispute resolution provisions. At least one Annex VII tribunal has interpreted Article 281(1) of UNCLOS to permit states to contract around the mandatory dispute resolution provision through regional agreements. However, a subsequent tribunal applied a much more constrained interpretation of the Article 281 exception. Ultimately, the impact of this exception will depend upon which interpretation is applied. The report also examines the scope of the Article 298(1)(c) exception, which exempts from binding resolution “disputes in respect of which the Security Council . . . is exercising the functions assigned to it by the [U.N.] Charter.” This exception is not confined to specific subject matters, but it is limited by the procedural difficulties of adding or removing an item from the Security Council’s agenda, as well as by the political costs that such an effort entails. Finally, the report notes that UNCLOS’s compulsory dispute settlement regime is not accompanied by similarly robust enforcement provisions. The report addresses the second criticism by examining the United States’ record in arbitration proceedings under eighteen multilateral treaties containing mandatory dispute resolution provisions, as well as a series of bilateral aviation agreements that provide for mandatory dispute resolution. Fifteen of those agreements have yielded very few readily identifiable arbitration proceedings involving the United States.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Legal Theory, and Arbitration
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5365. Internationally Protected Persons: The Status of Consular Employees

Author:
Ryan Liss
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
This memorandum considers whether consular employees and their family members constitute “internationally protected persons” (IPPs) under 18 U.S.C. § 112. In addition, the memorandum briefly considers whether an assault against the child of a consular employee abroad meets the jurisdictional nexus requirements of 18 U.S.C. § 112, such that the assault could be prosecuted in U.S. courts. It concludes that existing U.S. and foreign law and state practice do not provide a definitive definition of IPPs that either clearly includes or excludes consular employees. Moreover, the status of a consular employee’s child is similarly unclear, as the status of consular employees’ family members depends on that of the employee. However, while a definitive answer is not provided, the travaux preparatoires of the relevant treaties and one U.S. decision at least suggest that consular employees are excluded from the definition of IPPs. Part I explains that the applicable U.S. statutory provisions do not provide an exhaustive definition of who constitutes an IPP. The statute relies instead on the definition of IPPs at international law. In addition, there are no U.S. cases directly on point, so the existing case law does not foreclose the possibility that a consular employee might qualify as an IPP. However, the court’s logic in one case, United States v. Marcano-Garcia,2 which relied on the assault victim’s status as honorary consul under the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations in determining his IPP status, suggests that a consular employee would not fall within the definition. The exclusion of consular employees from the definition of IPPs is also arguably supported by the international treaties that 18 U.S.C. § 112 was drafted to implement, as well as those treaties’ travaux préparatoires. Part II looks to foreign and international law. There are indications in statements made via United Nations reporting processes that some states regard themselves as obligated to protect consular employees. But these statements are vague and are not supported by a similar trend in foreign domestic legislation or foreign case law. Part III shows that even if a consular employee and his or her child qualify as IPPs, the jurisdictional nexus under 18 U.S.C. § 112 must be met. For American courts to exercise jurisdiction in this case, the provision requires that the accused either be a U.S. national or be present on U.S. territory. Having concluded that the law does not support a definitive conclusion regarding whether a consular employee qualifies as an IPP, Part IV concludes by discussing policy considerations both in favor of and against extending such protection to consular employees.
Topic:
Law, Legal Theory, Protected People, and Diplomatic Immunity
Political Geography:
United States of America and North America

5366. US-Russian Partnership for Advancing a Nuclear Security Agenda

Author:
Anton Khlopkov
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States and the Russian Federation have engaged in bilateral and multilateral nuclear security efforts to secure nuclear materials and facilities in the region. This cooperation contributed to nuclear security globally and developed various tools, mechanisms, and approaches that need to be fully utilized by the international community. As new nuclear security challenges emerge, the implementation of sustainable nuclear security measures is constrained by limited expertise and resources, particularly in some key regions. For this reason, the application of US-Russian expertise and experience in cooperative threat reduction is essential to successful implementation of the global nuclear security agenda. Researchers investigate nuclear security challenges in other countries and regions—specifically in Southeast Asia and the former Soviet states of Central Asia—and examine possible ways by which the lessons learned from US-Russian nuclear security cooperation over the past two decades can be a
Topic:
Security, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Nuclear Safety
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Post-Soviet Europe

5367. Get "Smart": Paving the Way To A More Efficient Alliance

Author:
Young Atlanticists
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen's concept of Smart Defense, defined as "ensuring greater security, for less money, by working together with more flexibility," will be a hot topic at the NATO Summit in Chicago. The Secretary General has stressed that to successfully maintain its strength amid shrinking defense budgets and economic austerity, NATO "must prioritize... must specialize... and must seek multinational solutions." The European Union, much of its membership overlapping with NATO, has endeavored to accomplish a similar task through pooling and sharing, but concerns over sovereignty have severely limited progress. This policy memo provides several recommendations on how NATO can overcome this roadblock to secure state participation in the Smart Defense initiative. As military cooperation remains a sensitive issue, the success of Smart Defense will depend on how well NATO packages and markets these projects. NATO leadership must prove Smart Defense’s utility and dynamism while demonstrating the financial and strategic benefits to be gained by swift and comprehensive implementation. In order to create attractive projects, NATO will have to focus on four policy areas: 1) rework its structure to facilitate a more cooperative environment, 2) provide mechanisms to ensure efficiency, 3) stimulate and secure connections between like-minded states, and 4) find creative ways to include non-NATO actors in Smart Defense projects. It is through these initiatives that Smart Defense’s prospects for success can be raised; a success which is vital if NATO is to become the more efficient and interoperable alliance that its members need.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

5368. Pakistan Remains A Question Mark in Lead Up to NATO Summit

Author:
Boris Macguire
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
After a decade of war in Afghanistan, world leaders will arrive at May’s NATO Summit in Chicago having finally articulated a plan to transfer control of security to Afghan forces. There has also been increasing pressure on President Obama and the alliance’s leaders to use the summit to announce a timetable for the second stage of the endgame process – the actual extraction of NATO forces. But Pakistan, which has perhaps the greatest stake in NATO’s exit and the endurance of a negotiated settlement with Taliban, has yet to publicly articulate a clear and unified position on the process. Instead, Pakistan has initiated a “strategic pause” in relations, appointing a parliamentary committee on national security to review the country’s official engagement with the United States and NATO. Until the results of the review and the status of U.S.-Pakistan relations are clarified, President Obama and NATO leaders will be severely restricted in their ability to formulate a realistic withdrawal timeline.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Europe, North Atlantic, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5369. Drones in Our World, Part III: Non-Kinetic Solutions

Author:
Whitney Grespin
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Drone strikes on militants capture the negative headlines, but increasingly UAVs are winning fans amongst war fighters and civilians by other means. From providing eyes in the sky to taking on high-risk life support missions, the use of unmanned platforms is growing with no slowdown in sight. There are five fronts where UAVs are supporting the troops in ways that exploit their capabilities beyond offensive missions: surveillance/reconnaissance, intelligence, logistics, chronological reach back, and perhaps most surprisingly, community engagement. While context specific intelligence analysis is inseparable from its acquisition via surveillance and reconnaissance missions, it is separable for the purpose of this discussion about UAVs and how they are challenging traditional practices. UAVs can be both tactical and strategic assets – they are not only informing today’s missions, and they do not solely provide data that informs theater level decision making. These systems are achieving both tactical and strategic objectives, and they are sometimes doing so with the same machine in the same mission.
Topic:
Intelligence, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5370. Women in Special Forces: The Debate on Combat Exclusion

Author:
Lani Hay
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Combat Exclusion Policy is a U.S. congressional policy based on a 1988 Department of Defense restriction on women’s military service that created the “Risk Rule” for assignment of women in the military, preventing women from being assigned to units that had the risk of exposure to direct combat, hostile fire, or capture. The policy has been revised over the past 24 years but still precludes women from being assigned to direct ground combat units such as serving at the battalion level, as infantry, and in the Special Forces. Women’s roles supporting military missions have significantly evolved during the past ten years of warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan. The realities of modern day warfare and currently fighting in an asymmetric environment have women fighting on the front lines in specialty positions such as medics, mechanics, and military police. Additionally, to avoid the Combat Exclusion Policy as written, women are being “attached to” and not “assigned to” battalions as intelligence officers and communications officers and yet are not getting any credit for being in combat arms. Not allowing women the opportunity to receive acknowledgement for their combat experience and contributions to front-line battalions ultimately denies them from choice assignments and hinders their career advancement opportunities. The recent partial lift of the Combat Exclusion Policy, currently under consideration, will now allow women to be “assigned to” jobs at the battalion level. However, it continues to prevent women from serving as infantry or in the Special Forces. This partial lift is the first time the Department of Defense has recognized the contributions that our female service members have been and will continue to contribute to our front line combat units, and indicates that future changes to this 24-year old Department of Defense restriction are being considered. This shows signs of progress, but until the Combat Exclusion Policy is completely lifted the military will not be able to establish a level playing field for qualified women to enter all military positions and specialties, which will greatly impact the realities and necessities of modern day warfare.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Military Affairs, Feminism, Military Service, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5371. Missile Defense System Negotiations: Washington-Warsaw-Moscow Triangle

Author:
Richard Rousseau
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
When in March 1983 Ronald Reagan announced the initial plans to build a missile defense system purported to be able to “intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reached our [U.S.] own soil or that of our allies,” he in reality proclaimed the end of the deterrence and so called “balance of terror” doctrines which had formed the basis of the relations between the United States and the Soviet Union during what is known as the Cold War. The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), more commonly known at the time as "Star Wars," reformulated the power equation that had underpinned the “détente" period (1971-80). This project was abandoned with the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in1991, which marked the end of the Cold War. However, more than ten years later, President George W. Bush reactivated it, signing bilateral agreements with the Czech Republic and Poland for the deployment of a radar system and advanced land based missile interceptors. With the election of President Barack Obama, the missile defense system was transformed from a bilateral project to a multilateral one, directly involving European allies and the very structure of the NATO alliance. The Kremlin strongly opposed the Euro-American missile deployment project, first in the 1980s and again into the 21th Century. Today as in the past, Russia’s complaints and rhetoric remain basically unchanged. It claims that the shield would compromise the effectiveness of the Russian long-range nuclear arsenal, thus drastically alter the balance of power with the West. A turning point seemed to have taken place at the NATO summit in Lisbon in November 2010. Following a lively debate among diplomats, the European allies unanimously signed an agreement for the deployment of a missile defense system, which would provide “full coverage” of the Alliance area by 2020. More importantly, the final declaration of the summit heralded the birth of “cooperation with Russia in a spirit of reciprocity, maximum transparency and mutual confidence.” However, such good intentions and noble sentiments are regarded as mere words by some, as there is no serious likelihood that both sides will cooperate on a joint defense project of this nature.
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, North America, and United States of America

5372. The Foreign Policy Case For Senate Reform

Author:
Paul Nadeau
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In a famous story about the creation of the Senate, Thomas Jefferson and George Washington were debating a possible upper legislative chamber over tea, and Jefferson wanted to know why it was necessary to create an undemocratic body like the Senate. In response, Washington asked Jefferson why he had poured some of his tea into a saucer. “To cool it,” Jefferson answered, to which Washington replied “Even so, we pour legislation into the senatorial saucer to cool it.” The story (even if it might be apocryphal) illustrates that the slowness and deliberation of the Senate were intentional and designed to offset the popular passions that might govern the House of Representatives. The Senate’s rules were designed to emulate a gentleman’s club (such as the filibuster, which originated from the idea that gentlemen would have the good sense to limit the length of their speeches and that it would be rude to cut them off) but have become archaic as the body changed from a club to a typical legislative chamber. The rules of the Senate as they are currently designed have resulted in giving the opposition a trump card that is usually disproportionate to their legislative power. While its original structure incentivized moderation and compromise, the electoral system that populates its membership has incentivized partisanship. As a result the Senate has changed its form but not its function. The Senate can be deferential and deliberate or it can be factional and partisan, but it can’t be both.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5373. What a Tangled Web: India Caught Between U.S. and Iranian Interests

Author:
Felix Imonti
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
India is caught between the consequences of provoking a United States driven by its fixation upon the Iranian nuclear program and by an Iran that is a major supplier of oil, providing India with access to its vital interests in Afghanistan. The best that the Ind
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5374. Congress Considers New Sanctions on Iran - But Why

Author:
Paul Nadeau
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
It is not surprising that Congress can take a more aggressive stance on foreign policy issues than the Executive: Congress rarely bears the loss in foreign policy mistakes (consider where foreign policy issues rank on voters’ lists of priorities) and that consequently gives Congress an opportunity to demonstrate leadership, since high profile issues in most other issue areas carry considerably more risk. The result is that Congress will often take a position that is contrary to that of the Executive, most frequently by adopting a more extreme position, and then either assailing the Executive for a lack of leadership when the Executive does not follow or by taking credit when the Executive adopts Congress’s position. The most recent example is the issue of Iran’s nuclear program—which is likely the only current issue where there is genuine bipartisan support, famously evidenced in the Senate’s December 2011 100-0 passage of legislation sanctioning Iran’s financial sector. So far, international sanctions, and particularly the European Union’s sanctions of Iran’s oil sector, seem to have succeeded in damaging Iran’s economy and possibly even encouraging them to negotiate, though a breakthrough has been elusive. The problem is that while the sanctions may have succeeded in crippling Iran’s (already weak) economy so far, the goal of the sanctions program is supposed to have been to convince Iran to terminate its nuclear program. On that score, it’s unclear that additional sanctions may help the American cause and it might even undermine it.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

5375. Drones in Our World, Part IV: Adapting a Warfighter

Author:
Whitney Grespin
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Aerial surveillance and remote sensing are nothing new in the world of combat reconnaissance, but they are new tools in the arsenal of the humanitarian relief and development communities. And they are rapidly evolving. Complex, disaster, and rapidly evolving environments all require the capability to promptly collect, analyze, and disseminate critical information that UAVs can gather and exploit in ways and quantities that other resources cannot rival.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Drones, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5376. Generation "U".: The Plight oof 75 Million Unemployed Youth

Author:
Arun S. Nair
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Consider this—globally, 75 million youth between 15 and 24 years of age are unemployed, according to a May 2012 report of the International Labor Organization (ILO). If all these youth were residents of a single nation, that would make it the 18th most populous in the world. The 75 million youth (an increase of around 4 million since 2007) comprise about 40 percent of the estimated 207 million unemployed people across the world. Many of those who have managed to secure some employment are not any better off. As many as 228 million youth who have 'jobs' live on less than $2 a day, a reflection of their poverty and under-employment. The ILO forecasts a bleak future too. The international body on labor projects that the global youth unemployment rate—seen at 12.7 percent this year (or higher at 13.6 percent if one includes those who have given up or put off their job search due to the poor prospects)—will remain at such high levels in the near future, that is at least till 2016. Such is the seriousness of the problem that some experts have already started describing today's youth as Generation 'U' (for Unemployed) or Generation 'NEET' (an acronym for Not in Education, Employment or Training), a far cry from the more popularly used term—'Generation Z' or 'iGeneration' (symbolizing their skills in being technologically advanced and connected).
Topic:
Debt, Youth, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5377. The New U.S. Defense Strategic Guidance and Its Implications for South Korean Security

Author:
Young Ho Kim
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
On January 5, 2012, U.S. President Barack Obama paid a rare visit to the Pentagon and unveiled his guidelines for the Department of Defense to set the goals and priorities of its defense strategy for the next ten years. The resulting eight-page-long guidelines, entitled Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense (hereafter DSG), contain the administration’s assessment of changing global security conditions and propose the roles and shape of the U.S. armed forces for the coming decade. Prepared through “unprecedentedly” close consultations between the President himself and senior leaders in the U.S. defense department and military including both service chiefs and combatant commanders, the DSG defines the present as a historic “inflection point” and envisions the future U.S. military as “smaller and leaner, but agile, flexible, ready and technologically advanced.” Moreover, in accordance with the DSG the U.S. defense budget will be cut by $487 billion and the sizes of the Army and Marine Corps will shrink by 80,000 and 14,000 respectively over the next ten years. While a more detailed picture will be revealed next month with the administration’s FY2013 budget request to Congress, the DSG reflects the Obama administration’s arduous effort to rebalance and redirect its defense priorities and spending under severe fiscal austerity. Because of the unusual timing of its publication and the magnitude of the reduction in defense spending, the DSG has generated controversy and concern domestically in the United States as well as internationally. In the United States, particularly people in the conservative wing of the Republican Party have been prompted to criticize the guidelines for putting the nation’s security in danger, whereas some people on the liberal side have advocated seeking deeper and bolder cuts in defense spending. Internationally, China was understandably the first to respond negatively to the DSG. For example, rebutting the DSG’s portrayal of Beijing’s military policy as lacking transparency as “groundless and untrustworthy,” Liu Weimin, a spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, stressed that Beijing was committed to peaceful development and “defensive” policy. What then are the implications of the DSG for South Korean security? Will there be any changes in U.S. defense policy or posture in the region under the DSG that may affect security conditions in South Korea significantly and, if so, require new measures or scrutiny by the South Korean government or the military? In fact, there have been largely four issues raised by the news media in South Korea. I will examine these four issues, and then discuss more challenging concerns that will require closer attention by South Korean foreign and security policy-makers.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

5378. China, the United States, and the Changing Global Architecture

Author:
Seungjoo Lee
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
With the prospect of leadership change in China and the United States in 2012, the possibility for instability and uncertainty in the East Asia region is high. Despite such concerns, it is expected that the current structure of global governance will mitigate the difficulties associated with this period of transition. Considering the importance of global governance, it becomes necessary then to follow the changes in the global and regional architecture and think about how South Korea should meet this challenge. The trio of closely-related summit meetings that took place in November 2011 was such an occasion in which China and the United States grappled to shape the regional and global architecture. These meetings included the G20 Cannes summit on November 3, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit on November 12, and the East Asia Summit (EAS) on November 19. It is important to focus on the fact that during these meetings Beijing and Washington had the chance to examine the intention and capability of each other. In that sense, these meetings were akin to that of a boxing match fought over three rounds using not force but the complex elements of international politics in the twenty-first century that interact to design the regional and global architecture. These elements include power politics in international relations, cooperation and conflict in institutions and networks, and the knowledge power which allows for a consensus among countries by sharing the vision of a new order.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, Hegemony, and Leadership
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5379. A Gilded Alliance: Global Korea’s G-20/Yeonpyeong Moment Revisited

Author:
Haejong Lee
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Alliance is an instrument for national interest, which is dependent upon the international environment and defined by domestic, democratic political processes. This commonsense notion of alliance was not fully embraced by the incoming South Korean administration of Lee Myung Bak in 2008. For the Lee administration, South Korea’s alliance with the United States was much more than an instrument of foreign policy. The alliance embodied South Korea’s political identity and was severely damaged by the preceding Roh Moo Hyun administration’s anti-American, pro–North Korean policies. The restoration of the Republic of Korea (ROK)–US alliance was both the goal and key to its national security strategy of Global Korea to enhance South Korean’s influence, contribution, and stature on a global scale. Thereafter, in a circle of the alliance’s cheerleaders in both Seoul and Washington, the alliance has almost taken its own life: the alliance should be protected from disruptive political forces and modernized/adjusted/expanded into new dimensions for the preservation of the alliance itself. In the post–Cold War years, the United States has tried to modernize its military alliances in order to preserve its influence at reduced costs. The Barack Obama administration had to mend US alliances strained during the George W. Bush administration’s war on terror. In 2009, Presidents Lee and Obama agreed on “a comprehensive strategic alliance of bilateral, regional, and global scope, based on common values and mutual trust.” The so-called Great Recession, triggered by the fall of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, has both brought to power and bedeviled the Obama administration; 9/15 has become a new historical marker, replacing 9/11. The very “common values” of the ROK-US strategic alliance—democracy and market economy—have been put to the test; the worries and cries over the decline of the US have arisen once again. In May 2010, the Obama administration published its national security strategy of national renewal and global leadership. Nation-building at home was the primary goal of and imperative to national security. Along with moral leadership to “live” American values, global architecture to embed both allies and challengers in US-centered institutional networks became a new feature of American global leadership. “The United States can, must, and will lead in this new century,” asserted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in September 2010 at the Council of Foreign Relations, the oldest bastion of American global leadership. She went on to declare that “the complexity and connection of today’s world have yielded a new American moment, a moment when our global leadership is essential, even if we must often lead in new ways.” Confirming that “the 21st century will be another great American century,” President Obama argued at this year’s Air Force Academy graduation ceremony that “we have laid the foundation for a new era of American leadership.” Global Korea, with a comprehensive strategic alliance and a free trade agreement with the United States and hosting of a G-20 meeting and nuclear security summit, has been an integral part and a success story of American global architecture. The Lee administration was awarded with the first two-plus-two (foreign and defense ministers) meeting in 2010, which had been previously held only with Japan, and a state visit to Washington in 2011. “The relation between our two countries has never been stronger,” commended Secretary of State Clinton in this year’s second two-plus-two meeting. Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-Jin confirmed the 2015 operation control plan and expressed commitment to make “the alliance the best alliance in the world.” American Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta lauded an ongoing trilateral collaboration, including Korea and Japan, to deter North Korea as “another way to strengthen and modernize our alliance.” It is widely disputed that the Obama administration has seized a new American moment and laid the foundation for a new American century. The Obama administration has been beset with rampant unemployment and snowballing deficits. “The Moment of Truth,” a bipartisan commission’s report on the financial crisis, issued a warning in 2010 that it is imperative to raise revenues and to cut both defense and nondefense spending—in short, a complete overhaul of the existing American national security state and social welfare system. However, the political polarization of the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street and resultant partisan gridlock have foiled nation-building at home and led to the first downgrading of the US credit rating and a self-made financial cliff of sequester—mandatory across-the-board budget cuts in the next ten years beginning January 2013. Against its lean and mean years, the Obama administration’s rhetoric of a new American moment or century rings hollow. In contrast, the positive—it couldn’t be better—evaluation on the state of the ROK-US alliance is widely held. Nevertheless, the alliance’s success does not resonate with a (far from positive) strategic reality facing South Korea; nor does the alliance translate into a smooth-working component of American global architecture. The Lee administration has doubled down on its alliance with the US. With the Obama administration’s “strategic patience” or no policy toward North Korea, the Lee administration has succeeded in punishing/isolating North Korea but failed to prevent the latter’s development of nuclear capacity, not to mention the latter’s denuclearization. Or, to put it differently, when it comes to nuclear issues or power transition, North Korea has been on its own, with no South Korean leverage over the latter. Most critically and tragically, Global Korea’s prime moment of hosting a G-20 meeting in November 2010 (in the midst of the final renegotiation of a Korea-US free trade agreement) was followed by North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, which in turn led to a joint Korean-US military exercise including the USS George Washington aircraft carrier and which was opposed by China. In the G-20/Yeonpyeong moment, the Lee administration succeeded in synchronizing its strategic and comprehensive alliance with the US and global contribution but rather miserably failed to maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula and manage its relationship with China. On the other hand, the ROK-US comprehensive and strategic alliance does not dispense with politics among allies; nor does it develop into a trilateral cooperation of the United States, South Korea, and Japan. The Lee administration has been at odds with the United States on the issues of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing and missile development, albeit much out of public scrutiny. In addition, the Lee administration has recently confronted Japan with the territorial issue of Dokdo and Japanese colonialism, along with a public relations campaign, including President Lee’s visit to Dokdo in August 2012. This was an abrupt turnabout from its attempt to share information with Japan on North Korea through a military accord—a trilateral collaboration that Panetta mentioned as a way to modernize the ROK-US alliance. Faced with a public uproar against the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), the Lee administration canceled the latter’s signing ceremony at the last minute and turned to confront Japan, which reciprocated with its territorial claim and disavowal of historical responsibilities for colonialism, and even a threat to halt financial cooperation. In sum, despite of (or because of, if you will) the much touted success of the ROK-US alliance, South Korea is now in a diplomatic wilderness, isolated from all of its neighbors—North Korea, China, and Japan. Why? It is, I argue, because President Lee’s Global Korea was a vision for a bygone, pre–Great Recession, and pre-G-2 world. As long as the United States confronted an assertive China with allies and new partners, South Korea’s strategic alliance with the United States could serve both the former’s security interests and the latter’s regional architect. The sinking of the Cheonan happened in the context of such confrontations of the United States and China over the South China Seas, which led to the rescheduling of transfer of operational control (from the United States to South Korea) from 2012 to 2015 that had been requested by the Lee administration. However, as the United States began to embrace China and both deemed it necessary to contain security tensions on the Korean Peninsula, an assertive South Korea against North Korea and China became a liability to the United States, and South Korea’s strategic, global, comprehensive alliance with the United States became superfluous, if not necessarily inimical, to South Korea’s local and regional interests. Such was the case after the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. Following is a reconstruction of an anticlimax of Global Korea in the historical contexts of the Obama administration’s struggles to forge a new American global leadership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, G20, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

5380. Aging Eagle and Dark Clouds on the Security Horizon

Author:
Dong-Joon Jo
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The financial crisis in 2008 exposed a latent weakness that the United States would not have resources enough to cope with its population aging and maintain its global leadership. The crisis led the federal government to increase its welfare spending, bail out faltering industries, and rely on measures of economic stimulation. These measures resulted in the swelling of the public debt, which increased by $5,077 billion from fiscal year 2006 to fiscal year 2010, and intensified the U.S. federal government’s budgetary difficulties in meeting the welfare and medical needs of senior citizens and carrying out the war on terror abroad (See Figure 1). The belief in the sustainability of the public debt severely weakened, as the interest expense on the public debt rose to 8.6 percent of the total federal spending in 2010; the belief in the comparability between U.S. domestic welfare and its global leadership eroded. The financial crisis evoked a fairly routine set of behavior in partisan politics in 2011. When the public debt was about to reach the ceiling in 2011, Republicans and majority members of the Tea Party threatened not to agree on raising the debt ceiling. They pressured the Barack Obama administration to reduce the federal budget and governmental regulations. Meanwhile, the Obama administration and Democrats wanted to raise the maximum amount of governmental borrowing and keep boosting the economy. In the gunfire between the two parties loomed the possibility of sovereign default. Amid the partisan conflict the credit rating of the U.S. government bonds was downgraded for the first time in history; major market indexes plunged in the third quarter of 2011. The Budget Control Act was the result of bipartisan negotiations, accommodating conflicting goals and instruments from both sides. It provided breathing room for the Obama administration and Democrats by allowing the debt ceiling to increase by $900 billion two times in 2011 and additionally by $1.2 trillion in 2012. Meanwhile, it reduced the budgetary leeway of the administration and gave more power to the House, where Republicans and Tea Party members held the majority. More specifically, it established binding limits on annual appropriations bills to reduce the funding for discretionary programs, relative to the funding in the Congressional Budget Office’s 2010 baseline; it set up a Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, the “Supercommittee,” to come up with a bill to reduce deficits by at least $1.5 trillion through 2021. The legislation appeared to keep the partisan gunfire under control.
Topic:
Security, Financial Crisis, Budget, and Welfare
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5381. The 2012 U.S. Presidential Election and Its Implication in East Asia

Author:
Young Kwon Sohn
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
After the extended and fierce campaign, Obama finally clinched the victory in the 2012 presidential election. By gaining more than 300 electoral-college votes, which are disproportionately huge given his popular vote margin of around two percent over Romney(50% vs. 48%), he can legitimately claim national mandate for the next four year, although conservatives will be reluctant to embrace that mandate. After making a history four years ago by becoming the first black president to occupy the White House, he made another history this year by recapturing the presidency amid the still evolving Great Recession with the high unemployment rate around 7.1%. Given this historic nature of Obama’s second term, this paper aims to show how Obama was able to maintain an exceptionally competitive campaign despite the extremely bad national economic conditions. From the widely accepted consensus that the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is largely determined by the economic conditions of the election year, Obama’s successful presidential campaign needs explanation in one way or another. Following that, the paper also attempts to predict what the post-election U.S. East Asia policy look like. Will the post-election U.S. policy be different from the mainline policy of the last four years? If not, what would be rationale of the policy consistency? This paper will address these questions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5382. North Korea’s Estimated Stocks of Plutonium and Weapon-Grade Uranium

Author:
David Albright and Christina Walrond
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:
For years, great controversy has surrounded North Korea’s uranium enrichment program (UEP). How large is it? Has it made weapon-grade uranium (WGU)? How much could it make in the future? But there are also broader questions. What is the role of the UEP in the larger North Korean nuclear program? Is the UEP program strictly oriented to make 3.5 percent low enriched uranium for a civilian light water reactor (LWR) under construction at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, as North Korea says? Is it to make WGU? Or could North Korea intend to further enrich uranium for use in the light water reactor to make plutonium for nuclear weapons? Although LWRs are not typically used to make weapon-grade plutonium, they can do so efficiently if the reactor core is specially designed. Finally, how should the United States respond to the UEP and the associated uncertainties in this program? This ISIS report attempts to answer these questions utilizing plausible scenarios about past and possible future operation of the centrifuge program that could result in the production of WGU and future operation of the LWR that could make weapon-grade plutonium. In doing so, the report seeks to organize the incomplete data and derive answers to the above questions that have policy relevance. The report’s results are necessarily preliminary because significant uncertainties exist about the number of North Korean gas centrifuge plants, their operation, and the amount and enrichment level of the enriched uranium produced in them. In addition, although North Korea has said that its Yongbyon LWR is for civilian purposes, this statement is unverified and doubts about its potential use are justified. This report is designed to be updated if and when additional information is obtained.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

5383. Hard Power in a Soft Package: The ‘True’ Conservatism of Obama Leadership in Foreign Policy

Author:
Matthew Crosston
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Analyzing President Obama’s foreign policy and its global impact is no easy task. The early presidency of Obama has been marked by vicious attacks from the right, deep disappointment from the left, and something like indifference from the international community. This is understandable when the main argument is entertained: the ex- pectations of Obama’s global positions have not met reality mainly because they are more closely aligned with a cautious and considered ‘true’ conservatism, something no side (left, right, international) anticipated. The consequences of this becomes more than just about election results but has significant potential influence on the funda- mental debates between soft and hard power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Elections, Leadership, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5384. The USA: Challenges of the Superpower

Author:
Ketevan Rostiashvili
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union function and mission of the United States in the contemporary world system is one of the most debatable problems of academic litera- ture. This article is an attempt to analyze most recent socioeconomic and political tendencies of the USA for better understanding the scale of ongoing transformation of the society. As the level of integration of contemporary world is very high, transfor- mation of the USA provokes tectonic changes and transformation of the world system, its structure and nature. This study argues that, although the US primacy in the world is significantly challenged and shaken by external and internal factors, the USA still preserves its traditional function of economic, financial, military and political superpow- er, but in a quite different environment. The article predominantly uses materials drawn from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA, The World Fact book 2012); U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the USA - 2012, the US Federal Budgets 2010- 2012, and other valuable literature and sources.
Topic:
Politics, Hegemony, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5385. Security Policy in the European Union and the United States through the issue of their Defence Expenditures

Author:
Theodore Metaxas and Emmanouil Marios L. Economou
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article aims to clarify how the level of defence expenditures affected security poli- cy in the post-World War II Europe and the United States till the present day. We first analyze theoretically the issue of a nation’s power through its defence outlays. We then proceed to the examination of how security policy was formulated during Cold War and afterwards for both Europe and the United States through their defence ex- penditures. By comparing European to United States defence budgets ceilings we found that the European military capabilities are undermined by the low level of the defence budget which is provided by the European Union member states as a whole, as well as by the lack of homogeneity in military means. By contrast, we noticed that the historically large US defence expenditures were one of the major reasons for the US global hegemony during Cold war and afterwards. We also examine the implica- tions that defence expenditures have on military industry, macroeconomic perfor- mance and geopolitics and the correlation that arises among them.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

5386. Iran at the Center of Chaos Scenarios

Author:
Atilla Sandikli and Bilgehan Emeklier
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The Middle East region has undergone a rapid transformation period in recent years. Iran’s nuclear program may bring the US-Iranian relations to the verge of close combat. Any Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities may trigger a series of conflicts. Due to the sanctions imposed upon Iran because of its nuclear program, the country is getting more and more isolated and feels under threat. What could be the possible reactions of an Iran that sees itself as threatened? The US withdrew from Iraq and as a result of the popular movements, the Middle East administrations are changing hands one by one. The region has started to teem with uncertainties and risks. On one hand, there is a wish for freedom, democracy, human rights, rule of law, free market, and fair income distribution. On the other hand, an abundance of conflicts and blood is being seen. What will these developments bring about? Could Iran, as an important player in the area, transform this uncertainty into an opportunity for itself? This report named “Iran at the Center of Chaos Scenarios” focuses on paradigms which direct Iran’s geopolitical features and foreign policy, paying particular attention to elements of continuity, drastic differences and ruptures in Iran. There are certain scenarios on how Iran, which feels under threat, will evaluate and make use of sensitivities and opportunities appearing with the US withdrawal from Iraq and the Arab Spring. The report also pays special emphasis to the fact that Iran stands at the center of all these scenarios, potentially leading to chaos in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Social Movement, Geopolitics, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

5387. Nobody's Century: The American Proposal in Post-Imperial Times

Author:
Chas W. Freeman Jr.
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
We are entering a novel period in our history–one in which the United States will be both fiscally constrained and also unable to call the shots in many places around the globe. Let me try to set the stage for your discussions by raising some difficult questions for you to ponder.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, Hegemony, and World System
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

5388. The Transatlantic Relationship in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Charles King Mallory
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
When one has the opportunity to visit the heart of Anatolia, it is often an eye-opener. While we may read about developments in Turkey, it is quite different to absorb with all of your senses the numerous signs of a flourishing, vibrant, growing, modernizing Democracy. As such, Turkey is more important to U.S. foreign and security policy than ever before. Turkey can act as a strategic bridge along multiple azimuths. Turkey can also become a greater stakeholder and can act as a stabilizer, persuader, facilitator, mediator, as well as an example, as the global community struggles to cope with the challenges and opportunities presented by the new, emerging post-Cold-War strategic landscape. In this article I will touch on three topics: First, I will offer a brief assessment of where Turkey’s bilateral relations with the European Union and the United States stand from a U.S. point of view; next, I will describe three major strategic challenges that I believe Turkey, the European Union and the United States face in the Greater Middle East; and finally, I will attempt to analyze where the opportunities for and challenges to cooperation between Turkey, the European Union and the United States lie, given where bilateral relations stand and the challenges facing them.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

5389. Area and International Studies in Turkey: The Case of the United States

Author:
Ilter Turan
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Area studies in the international relations discipline have evolved in response to specific needs of countries and particular conditions of the world affairs at a given time. This article addresses a set of conditions and needs that influenced the development of area studies in international relations with a focus on the emergence and growth of studies on the United States in Turkey. Accordingly, it is argued that Turkey has historically conceptualized external relations as state-to-state relations and not prioritized initially a research program on area studies. However, the shift from import substitution to export-led growth and the end of the Cold War created an environment in which Turkey’s needs to research about other societies have intensified. This has led to the establishment of research programs and centers at universities as well as the opening of think tanks, some funded by the public, others privately. In light of the assessment of the growth of these research and teaching institutions focusing on the United States, it is concluded that American studies are less developed than what might be expected given Turkey’s close relationship with the United States. Some explanations are also offered for such an observation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Research, Think Tanks, and Area Studies
Political Geography:
Turkey and United States of America

5390. A New Narrative for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Dana White
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Former Congressional staff, Dana White, presents a new narrative for the U.S. – Japan alliance. The report addresses the Futenma issue and reallocation of U.S. forces in Japan as well as new areas for non-traditional security cooperation. In the Asian century, the fates of Japan and the United States are inextricably linked. Tokyo and Washington collaboration must adopt a whole of government approach to fare well in this century.
Topic:
Government, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and United States of America

5391. Counter A2/AD in Japan – U.S. Defense Cooperation: Toward ‘Allied Air-Sea Battle’

Author:
Sugio Takahashi
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The balance of power in the Asia – Pacific is rapidly shifting. The U.S. and Japan share concerns over China’s increasing military spending and lack of military transparency. This report analyzes the implications of Japan’s National Defense Policy Guidelines 2010 for Japan’s role in the Pacific and for the future of U.S. – Japan defense cooperation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Spending, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

5392. Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Case Study in Successful U.S.-Japan Alliance Management

Author:
Vance Serchuk
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Speaking at Suntory Hall in Tokyo during his inaugural visit to the Asia-Pacific region as President of the United States, Barack Obama in November 2009 affirmed his Administration’s commitment to “an enduring and revitalized alliance between the United States and Japan.” Noting the impending 60th anniversary of the alliance, President Obama pledged to “deepen” the ties between Washington and Tokyo as a cornerstone of a broader strategy of reengagement with the region. At the same time, Obama cast the U.S.-Japan alliance in global terms, noting Japan’s “important contributions to stability around the world—from reconstruction to Iraq, to combating piracy off the Horn of Africa, to assistance for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

5393. The Arctic and Natural Gas in Northeast Asia’s Energy Future

Author:
Isabella Mroczkowski and L. C. Russell Hsiao
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The International Energy Outlook 2011 published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that world energy consumption will grow by 53 percent from 2008 to 2035. Asia’s rapidly growing economies will be the primary drivers of increasing global energy demand. By 2035, China’s and India’s combined energy use are projected to account for 31 percent of total world energy consumption. If current projections hold, by some estimates natural gas may make up to 60 percent of the region’s energy mix by 2035. New shipping routes and energy supplies in the Arctic have the potential to multiply the utility of gas in the region’s future energy mix.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Gas
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, Northeast Asia, Arctic, and United States of America

5394. Countering Chinese Cyber Operations: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Interests

Author:
Mark Stokes and L. C. Russell Hsiao
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Chinese cyber espionage poses an advanced persistent threat to U.S. national and economic security. Groups operating from PRC territory are believed to be waging a coordinated cyber espionage campaign targeting U.S. government, industrial, and think tank computer networks. A dozen of these groups have been identified and linked with the PLA, and others connected with universities and information security enterprises. The largest and most active of these groups may operate from Beijing and Shanghai.
Topic:
Government, Cybersecurity, Economy, and Espionage
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

5395. Chinese Direct Investment in California

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
A new report entitled Chinese Direct Investment in California published by the Asia Society finds that California has attracted more Chinese investment deals than any other U.S. state but remains fifth in the nation in total investment value. Negligible before 2008, Chinese investment in the state is growing at triple-digit levels and could reach $60 billion by 2020, but only if the state and private sector do a better job working together to attract Chinese capital. The report is co-authored by Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann of the Rhodium Group and builds on a 2011 Asia Society study, entitled An American Open Door?: Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment, which looked more broadly at Chinese investment into the U.S. The new report is the most comprehensive study to date of Chinese investment in the Golden State and in the U.S. overall. It finds that the potential gains for California and China are enormous but that success is far from guaranteed. U.S.-China relations remain tense and protectionism is a serious threat. At the state level, California has had a mixed record of promoting its economic strengths. The report urges policy and business leaders in the state to do better to out-compete other states, and nations, that seek to increase their own shares of the Chinese outbound investment surge. Four decades ago, Japanese direct investment in the U.S. was at a similar stage. Now, it totals some $300 billion, employs 700,000 Americans, and undergirds a strong, stable U.S.-Japan relationship. Investment and trade between the U.S. and China show even greater promise today. Compared to the rest of the U.S., the report finds that Chinese investment in California is disproportionately from private rather than state-owned enterprises, greenfield rather than M&As, and strongest in high-tech and high-value services — areas that the Chinese government and private sector have targeted for accelerated growth. Of the $1.3 billion in Chinese investment in the state since 2000, Southern California leads the state in investment with 69 deals totaling $618 million. The San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley/South Bay regions are the second and third most attractive regions for Chinese investors.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Business, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, California, North America, and United States of America

5396. Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury Yields

Author:
Daniel O. Beltran, Maxwell Kretchmer, Jaime Marquez, and Charles Thomas
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased from $400 billion in January 1994 to about $3 trillion in June 2010. Most of this growth is accounted for by a handful of emerging market economies that have been running large current account surpluses. These countries are channeling their savings through the official sector, which is then acquiring foreign exchange reserves. Any shift in policy to reduce their current account surpluses or dampen the rate of reserves accumulation would likely slow the pace of foreign official purchases of U.S. Treasuries. Would such a slowing of foreign official purchases of Treasury notes and bonds affect long-term Treasury yields? Most likely yes, and the effects appear to be large. By our estimates, if foreign official inflows into U.S. Treasuries were to decrease in a given month by $100 billion, 5-year Treasury rates would rise by about 40-60 basis points in the short run. But once we allow foreign private investors to react to the yield change induced by the shock to foreign official inflows, the long-run effect is about 20 basis points.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5397. The Effect of TARP on Bank Risk-Taking

Author:
Lamont Black and Lieu Hazelwood
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
One of the largest responses of the U.S. government to the recent financial crisis was the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). TARP was originally intended to stabilize the financial sector through the increased capitalization of banks. However, recipients of TARP funds were then encouraged to make additional loans despite increased borrower risk. In this paper, we consider the effect of the TARP capital injections on bank risk taking by analyzing the risk ratings of banks’ commercial loan originations during the crisis. The results indicate that, relative to non-TARP banks, the risk of loan originations increased at large TARP banks but decreased at small TARP banks. Interest spreads and loan levels also moved in different directions for large and small banks. For large banks, the increase in risk-taking without an increase in lending is suggestive of moral hazard due to government ownership. These results may also be due to the conflicting goals of the TARP program for bank capitalization and bank lending.
Topic:
Governance, Interest Rates, Risk, Welfare, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5398. U.S. International Equity Investment and Past Prospective Returns

Author:
John Armmer, Sara B. Holland, David C Smith, and Francis E. Warnock
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
U.S. investors are the largest group of international equity investors in the world, but to date conclusive evidence on which types of foreign firms are able to attract U.S. investment is not available. Using a comprehensive dataset of all U.S. investment in foreign equities, we find that the single most important determinant of the amount of U.S. investment a foreign firm receives is whether the firm cross-lists on a U.S. exchange. Correcting for selection biases, cross-listing leads to a doubling (or more) in U.S. investment, an impact greater than all other factors combined. We also show that our firm-level analysis has implications for country-level studies, suggesting that research investigating equity investment patterns at the country-level should include cross-listing as an endogenous control variable. We describe easy-to-implement methods for including the importance of cross-listing at the country level.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Exchange Rate Policy, Investment, and Equity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5399. When Good Investments Go Bad: The Contraction in Community Bank Lending After the 2008 GSE Takeover

Author:
Tara Rice and Jonathan Rose
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
n September 2008, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into conservatorship and dividend payments on common and preferred shares were suspended. As a result, share prices fell to nearly zero and many banks across the country lost the value of their investments in the preferred shares. We estimate more than 600 depository institutions in the United States were exposed to at least $8 billion in investment losses from these securities. In addition, fifteen failures and two distressed mergers either directly or indirectly resulted from the takeover. Since these GSE investments were considered to be safe investments by banks, regulators, and rating agencies, we consider these losses to be exogenous shocks to bank capital, and use this event to examine the relationship between community bank condition and lending during this crisis. We find that in the quarter following the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the measured Tier 1 capital ratio at exposed banks fell about three percent on average, and loan growth at exposed banks with median capitalization was about 2 percentage points lower compared to other banks in the following quarter. Consequently, considering the set of community banks that incurred about $2 billion in GSE-related losses, and assuming that each bank reduced loan growth by 2 percentage points, the estimated aggregate lending drop among these banks would be roughly $4 billion.
Topic:
Investment, Lending, Banking, and Banking Crisis
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5400. Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries

Author:
Lutz Kilian and Robert J. Vigfusson
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil price in recent years and that (2) oil price decreases do not matter at all. We examine, first, whether the evidence of in-sample predictability in support of this view extends to out-of-sample forecasts. Second, we discuss how to extend this forecasting approach to higher horizons. Third, we compare the resulting class of nonlinear models to alternative economically plausible nonlinear specifications and examine which aspect of the model is most useful for forecasting. We show that the asymmetry embodied in commonly used nonlinear transformations of the price of oil is not helpful for out-of-sample forecasting; more robust and more accurate real GDP forecasts are obtained from symmetric nonlinear models based on the three-year net oil price change. Finally, we quantify the extent to which the 2008 recession could have been forecast using the latter class of time-varying threshold models.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, GDP, and Price
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America