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5302. America’s Allies and Nuclear Arms: Assessing the Geopolitics of Nonproliferation in Asia
- Author:
- Robert Zarate
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- While U.S. policymakers and lawmakers sometimes deeply disagree on precisely how to stop hostile states from getting nuclear weapons, they generally agree on the overall goal of nuclear nonproliferation with regard to adversaries. But what about the goal of nonproliferation with regard to treaty allies? If Japan, South Korea, or other U.S. treaty allies in Asia who are threatened by China’s and North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats, were someday to insist on getting independent nuclear arsenals, should Washington welcome or oppose them?
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, Nonproliferation, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America
5303. The Alliance: Toward a Stronger U.S.-Japan Partnership
- Author:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- For the first time in the history of our nation, the Asia-Pacific is more important for the United States than any other region of the world. That is today. Tomorrow it will be even more vital. Indeed, the Asia-Pacific is the new epicenter of global affairs, and it is here that profound strategic changes are unfolding that will transform the international system. As one of the region’s most prosperous, powerful and pivotally located countries, Japan will play a key role in steering the trajectory of future developments in the region. This report is the capstone paper for the U.S.-Japan Exchange Program (2012 – 2014).
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and International System
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
5304. Standing Watch: Taiwan and Maritime Domain Awareness in the Western Pacific
- Author:
- Ian Easton
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a preliminary assessment of Taiwan’s naval intelligence capabilities and evaluates its role in a future U.S.-led architecture for joint Western Pacific maritime domain awareness. The study examines Taiwan’s capabilities for monitoring its surrounding waters and the potential role of Taiwan in assisting the United States improve its situational awareness during maritime operations. The paper concludes that it is in the American interest to integrate Taiwan’s capabilities into a joint infrastructure for shared indications and warning (I&W) and regional situational awareness.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Infrastructure, Military Affairs, and Navy
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5305. The Superiority of Economists
- Author:
- Marion Fourcade, Etienne Ollion, and Yann Algan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- In this essay, we investigate the dominant position of economics within the network of the social sciences in the United States. We begin by documenting the relative insularity of economics, using bibliometric data. Next we analyze the tight management of the field from the top down, which gives economics its characteristic hierarchical structure. Economists also distinguish themselves from other social scientists through their much better material situation (many teach in business schools, have external consulting activities), their more individualist worldviews, and in the confidence they have in their discipline’s ability to fix the world’s problems. Taken together, these traits constitute what we call the superiority of economists, where economists’ objective supremacy is intimately linked with their subjective sense of authority and entitlement. While this superiority has certainly fueled economists’ practical involvement and their considerable influence over the economy, it has also exposed them more to conflicts of interests, political critique, even derision.
- Topic:
- Economics, Academia, Social Science, and Hierarchy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5306. The Emerging Global Health Crisis
- Author:
- Mitchell E. Daniels Jr., Thomas E. Donilon, and Thomas J. Bollyky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Rates of heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in low- and middle-income countries are increasing faster, in younger people, and with worse outcomes than in wealthier countries. In 2013 alone, NCDs killed eight million people before their sixtieth birthdays in developing countries. A new CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force report and accompanying interactive look at the factors behind this epidemic and the ways the United States can best fight it. NCDs will affect U.S. interests because of their human, economic, and strategic consequences. "More patients will get sick, suffer longer, require more medical care, and die young. Given the scale of these trends, the results will reverberate," the Task Force warns. It is projected that the NCD epidemic will inflict $21.3 trillion in losses in developing countries over the next two decades—a cost nearly equal to the entire economic output of those countries in 2013. "These economic consequences will undercut potential U.S. trade partners and allies and may reduce domestic support for governments of U.S. strategic interest." The Task Force says the United States and like-minded partners can help developing countries meet the NCD challenge at relatively modest cost and "slow the rise of this epidemic, lessen its worst effects, and help provide national governments with the time and technical assistance needed to tackle this emerging crisis sustainably on their own." The U.S. government should take two immediate steps, the Task Force says: examine its global health priorities and spending and ensure their continued effectiveness; and convene governments and other potential partners from around the world to develop a plan for collective action on NCDs in low- and middle-income countries. The Task Force encourages the United States to focus on the NCDs and risk factors most prevalent among the working-age poor in developing countries. Low-cost interventions are available and should be integrated into existing U.S. global health efforts. Based on these criteria, the Task Force maintains that: In the short term U.S. leadership would have a significant effect on cardiovascular disease, tobacco control, liver cancer, and cervical cancer. "Low-cost, prevention-based solutions exist for each challenge and the United States is in the position to help local governments implement them." More on: Noncommunicable Diseases Global Public Health Threats and Pandemics In the medium term U.S. leadership would make a tremendous difference to address diabetes and treatable and curable cancers, such as leukemia and breast cancer. "The Task Force has identified several NCD challenges for which effective interventions are widely used in the United States and other high-income countries, but not yet sufficiently low cost or usable in low-infrastructure settings . . .With U.S. leadership, more population and implementation research, and collaboration with private sector and philanthropic partners, progress on adapting these interventions for cost-effective, low-infrastructure use is foreseeable in the near term." U.S. collaboration with developing countries and the private sector may help ameliorate poor diets and nutrition, physical inactivity, and obesity. It could also help integrate mental health into primary care and provide low-cost chronic care programs and technologies.
- Topic:
- Health, International Cooperation, Governance, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5307. Trends in the International Community’s War on IS
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- A combination of several factors has driven the United States to launch military operations against the Islamic State (IS) organisation. Perhaps the most important of these are the imminent danger to Erbil and Baghdad, the worsening humanitarian situation, Iran’s strategic role regarding the military position of the governments in both Baghdad and Erbil, and the pressure on the Obama administration exercised by the Washington political community. IS’ beheading of American hostages in response to the initial American intervention has reinforced the US military response option. However, there is political uncertainty and considerable suspicion regarding the overall goals of the war, impacting Muslim public opinion in Syria, Iraq and neighbouring countries, including Saudi Arabia. On the one hand, it is difficult to undertake wide-ranging aerial bombardment (as is currently occurring in Syria and Iraq) without making deadly mistakes against civilians, and even military allies. On the other hand, scepticism is fuelled by the lack of clarity regarding America’s objectives, and whether this war is only against IS and whether it includes other organizations that Washington labels as radical, such as the al-Nusra Front and the Ahrar al-Sham Movement. This ambiguity about the war’s objectives, together with the persistence of the Syrian regime and its probable entrenchment as a result of the war, makes regional participation in the war more difficult, despite US promises to train and help what the Americans call “moderate” Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters.
- Topic:
- Arab Countries, Islamic State, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5308. Menu Costs, Trade Flows, and Exchange Rate Volatility
- Author:
- Logan T. Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- U.S. imports and exports respond little to exchange rate changes in the short run. Pricing behavior has long been thought central to explaining this response: if local prices do not respond to exchange rates, neither will trade flows. Sticky prices and strategic complementarities in price setting generate sluggish responses, and they are necessary to match newly available international micro price data. Using trade flow data, I test models capable of replicating these trade price data. Even with significant pricing frictions, the models still imply a trade response to exchange rates stronger than found in the data. Moreover, using significant cross-sector heterogeneity, comparative statics implied by the model find little to no support in the data. These results suggest that while complementarity in price setting and sticky prices can explain pricing patterns, some other short-run friction is needed to match actual trade flows. Furthermore, the muted response found for sectors with high long-run substitutability implies that simply assuming low elasticities may be inappropriate. Finally, there is evidence of an asymmetric response to exchange rate changes.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, and Capital Flows
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5309. Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios
- Author:
- Stephanie E. Curcuru, Charles P. Thomas, Francis E. Warnock, and Jon Wongswan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Portfolio rebalancing is a key driver of the Uncovered Equity Parity (UEP) condition. According to UEP, when foreign equity holdings outperform domestic holdings, domestic investors are exposed to higher exchange rate exposure and hence repatriate some of the foreign equity to decrease their exchange rate risk. By doing so, foreign currency is sold, leading to foreign currency depreciation. We examine the relationship between U.S. investors' portfolio reallocations and returns and find some evidence consistent with UEP: Portfolio shifts are related to past returns in the underlying equity markets. But we argue that a motive other than reducing currency risk exposure is likely behind this rebalancing. In particular, U.S. investors may be exploiting mean reversion in underlying equity markets, rebalancing away from equity markets that recently performed well and moving into equity markets market just prior to relatively strong performance. Such behavior suggests tactical reallocations to increase returns rather than reduce risk.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Risk, International Portfolios, and Equity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5310. Liquidity Risk and U.S. Bank Lending at Home and Abroad
- Author:
- Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, and Tara Rice
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- While the balance sheet structure of U.S. banks influences how they respond to liquidity risks, the mechanisms for the effects on and consequences for lending vary widely across banks. We demonstrate fundamental differences across banks without foreign affiliates versus those with foreign affiliates. Among the nonglobal banks (those without a foreign affiliate), cross-sectional differences in response to liquidity risk depend on the banks' shares of core deposit funding. By contrast, differences across global banks (those with foreign affiliates) are associated with ex ante liquidity management strategies as reflected in internal borrowing across the global organization. This intra-firm borrowing by banks serves as a shock absorber and affects lending patterns to domestic and foreign customers. The use of official-sector emergency liquidity facilities by global and nonglobal banks in response to market liquidity risks tends to reduce the importance of ex ante differences in balance sheets as drivers of cross-sectional differences in lending.
- Topic:
- Risk, Lending, Banking, and Liquidity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5311. The Energy Boom and Manufacturing in the United States
- Author:
- William R. Melick
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturers to changes in competitiveness brought about by movements in the price of natural gas. I estimate the response of various measures of manufacturing activity using panel regression methods across roughly 80 industries that allow each industry's response to vary with its energy intensity. These estimates suggest that the fall in the price of natural gas since 2006 is associated with a 2 to 3 percent increase in activity for the entire manufacturing sector, with much larger effects of 30 percent or more for the most energy intensive industries.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Manufacturing
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5312. U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies
- Author:
- David Bowman, Juan M. Londono, and Horacio Sapriza
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We investigate the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policies on sovereign yields, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices in emerging market economies (EMEs), and we analyze how these effects depend on country-specifc characteristics. We find that, although EME asset prices, mainly those of sovereign bonds, responded strongly to unconventional monetary policy announcements, these responses were not outsized with respect to a model that takes into account each country's time-varying vulnerability to U.S. interest rates affected by monetary policy shocks.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, Markets, Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate Policy, Interest Rates, and Stock Markets
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5313. The Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking
- Author:
- Matteo Cacciatore, Fabio Ghironi, and Viktors Stebunovs
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the domestic and international effects of national bank market integration in a two-country, dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with endogenous producer entry. Integration of banking across localities reduces the degree of local monopoly power of financial intermediaries. The economy that implements this form of deregulation experiences increased producer entry, real exchange rate appreciation, and a current account deficit. The foreign economy experiences a long-run increase in GDP and consumption. Less monopoly power in financial intermediation results in less volatile business creation, reduced markup countercyclicality, and weaker substitution effects in labor supply in response to productivity shocks. Bank market integration thus contributes to moderation of firm-level and aggregate output volatility. In turn, trade and financial ties allow also the foreign economy to enjoy lower GDP volatility in most scenarios we consider. These results are consistent with features of U.S. and international fluctuations after the United States began its transition to interstate banking in the late 1970s.
- Topic:
- Markets, Monopoly, Fiscal Policy, Banking, and Interstate Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5314. Returns to Active Management: The Case of Hedge Funds
- Author:
- Maziar Kazemi and Ergys Islamaj
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Do more active hedge fund managers generate higher returns than their less active peers? We attempt to answer this question. Using Kalman Filter techniques, we estimate the risk exposure dynamics of a large sample of live and dead equity long-short hedge funds. These estimates are then used to develop a measure of activeness for each hedge fund. Our results show that there exists a nonlinear relationship between activeness and performance. Using raw returns as a measure of performance, it is found that more active funds outperform the less active ones. However, when risk adjusted returns are used to measure performance, we find the opposite results; that is, activeness is inversely related to returns. Still, we find that a few very active managers outperform the moderately active funds and generate higher returns. We conclude that the most active managers use their skills to manage the riskiness of their portfolios and are, therefore, able to provide higher risk adjusted returns. Finally, we find that compared to the least active managers, the most active managers are less homogeneous and, therefore, due diligence is far more important when selecting an active manager.
- Topic:
- Markets, Risk, Business Management, and Stock Markets
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5315. The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions
- Author:
- Lutz Kilian and Robert J. Vigfusson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional recessionary effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s. Compared to the linear model, the cumulative effect of oil price shocks over the course of the next two years is much larger in the net oil price increase model. For example, oil price shocks explain a 3 percent cumulative reduction in U.S. real GDP in the late 1970s and early 1980s and a 5 percent cumulative reduction during the financial crisis. An obvious concern is that some of these estimates are an artifact of net oil price increases being correlated with other variables that explain recessions. We show that the explanatory power of oil price shocks largely persists even after augmenting the nonlinear model with a measure of credit supply conditions, of the monetary policy stance and of consumer confidence. There is evidence, however, that the conditional fit of the net oil price increase model is worse on average than the fit of the corresponding linear model, suggesting much smaller cumulative effects of oil price shocks for these episodes of at most 1 percent.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Global Recession, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, and GDP
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5316. Bank Interventions and Options-based Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Global and Euro-area Crisis
- Author:
- Juan M. Londono and Mary Tian
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Using a novel dataset on central bank interventions to financial institutions, we examine the impact of capital injection announcements on systemic risk for the banking sector in the U.S. and the euro area between 2008 and 2013. We propose a new measure of options-based systemic risk called downside correlation risk premium (DCRP), which quantifies the compensation investors demand for being exposed to the risk of large correlated drops in bank stock prices. DCRP is calculated using options that provide a hedge against large drops in the price of a bank index and its individual components. We find that, irrespective of their characteristics, intervention announcements significantly reduce DCRP in the U.S. while for the euro area, interventions were largely unsuccessful at reducing DCRP.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Institutions, Risk, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
5317. The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy
- Author:
- Lorenzo Caliendo, Fernando Parro, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, and Pierre-Daniel Sarte
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to the rest of the economy. The quantitative model we develop features pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and structures and land as an immobile factor. We allow for sectoral linkages in the form of an intermediate input structure that matches the U.S. input-output matrix. Using data on trade flows by industry between states, as well as other regional and industry data, we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elasticities of measured TFP, GDP, and employment to regional and sectoral productivity changes. We find that such elasticities can vary significantly depending on the sectors and regions affected and are importantly determined by the spatial structure of the US economy. We highlight the role of these elasticities by tracing out the effects of productivity gains in California in the Computers and Electronics industry between 2002 and 2007 on all other U.S. sectors and regions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, GDP, Regionalism, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5318. The Replacement of Safe Assets: Evidence from the U.S. Bond Portfolio
- Author:
- Carol C. Bertaut, Alexandra Tabova, and Vivian Wong
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The expansion in financial sector "safe" assets, largely in the form of structured products from the U.S. and the Caribbean, in the lead-up to the global financial crisis has by now been fairly well documented. Using a unique dataset derived from security-level data on U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities, we show that since the crisis, it is mostly the foreign financial sector that appears to have met U.S. demand for safe and liquid investment assets by expanding its supply of debt securities. We also find a strong negative correlation between the foreign share of the U.S. financial bond portfolio and measures of U.S. safe assets availability: providing evidence on the importance of foreign-issued financial sector debt as a substitute when U.S. issued "safe" assets are scarce. Furthermore, although U.S. investors continue to tap foreign financial markets for "safe" assets, we show that the type of foreign financial debt that fills this portfolio niche post-crisis is quite different than pre-crisis. Post-crisis, we find that U.S. investors have replaced offshore-issued structured securities with high-grade U.S. dollar-denominated financial debt issued from a small group of OECD countries (most notably Australia and Canada). Lastly, these developments have led to a decline in home bias in the U.S. financial bond portfolio that we are able to document for the first time.
- Topic:
- Foreign Exchange, Financial Crisis, Investment, Fiscal Policy, and Bonds
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, North America, and United States of America
5319. Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata
- Author:
- Ryan Monarch, Jooyoun Park, and Jagadeesh Sivadasan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output (38.5 per cent) and capital (28.8 per cent) relative to their industry peers. We find no significant change in average wages or in total factor productivity measures for offshoring firms. These results are consistent across two separate difference-in-differences (DID) approaches, an instrumental variables approach, and a number of robustness checks. Thus, we find offshoring to be a strong substitute for domestic activity in this large sample of offshoring events.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Manufacturing, Trade, Outsourcing, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5320. The Unaffordable Arsenal: Reducing the Costs of the Bloated U.S. Nuclear Stockpile
- Author:
- Tom Z. Collina
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The United States currently plans to spend some $355 billion to maintain and rebuild its Cold War-era nuclear arsenal over the next decade, even as the overall U.S. defense budget is declining and U.S. military planners and the president have determined that the United States can deter nuclear threats against the United States and its allies with far fewer nuclear weapons. This report argues that the increasingly high cost of nuclear weapons, combined with shrinking budgets and stockpiles, should compel the executive branch, Congress, and the American public to rethink current plans to rebuild U.S. nuclear forces in the years ahead. The Unaffordable Arsenal outlines common sense ways to save roughly $70 billion over the next decade across all three legs of the triad by scaling-back, delaying, and/or deferring expensive new delivery systems and by taking a more disciplined, straightforward approach to nuclear warhead life-extensions and refurbishments.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Defense Spending
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5321. North Korea, Ballistic Missile Defence and Canada-US Defence Cooperation
- Author:
- Frank Harvey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- In December 2012, North Korea launched the Unha-3 rocket – a three-stage, intercontinental ballistic missile with an estimated range of 10,000 kilometres. When combined with North Korea’s latest underground nuclear test in January, these moves represent a concerted effort by the regime to develop and deploy an offensive nuclear capability. When acquired, a nuclear tipped intercontinental ballistic missile will provide Pyongyang with a credible deterrent that will seriously diminish our coercive leverage in subsequent military security crises involving North and South Korea. The imperative on the part of the international community to move forward with research, development and deployment of ballistic missile defences (BMD) is becoming more pressing each year. In November 2010, 28 NATO members signed NATO’s new Strategic Concept. The most relevant part of the alliance’s new strategy is the commitment by all NATO members to: “Develop the capability to defend our populations and territories against ballistic missile attack as a core element of our collective defence.” As a NATO member, Canada now officially endorses the logic, strategic utility and security benefits of ballistic missile defence, but, apparently, only in terms of protecting European and American territory and populations. The most perplexing aspect of Canada’s policy is the ongoing refusal to engage in bilateral discussions with our most important NATO ally to negotiate BMD architecture to protect Canadian territory and populations. Canadian officials have the luxury to sit back and let allies protect our territory, but this is a foreign policy strategy that has reached the point of taking free-riding to a new and somewhat disturbing level.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Missile Defense, and Ballistic Missile
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America
5322. Is NATO Still Necessary for Canada?
- Author:
- J. L. Granatstein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been the most successful military alliance of the modern era. Set up in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union, NATO won the Cold War some four decades later without firing a shot. Perhaps it might have been better if NATO had wound itself up at the end of the Cold War. The alliance instead sought a new role and found it out of area. It conducted operations in Former Yugoslavia, war against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, and later still an air campaign that brought down Gaddafi in Libya. None of these operations were notable successes. In 2011, then U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated that NATO faced “the real possibility [of] a dim, if not dismal future....The military capabilities simply aren’t there." The transatlantic alliance, Gates said, must confront fundamental strategic questions about its future. All this makes a hard look at NATO essential. The European nations can readily handle the defence of their territory, and it is time to ask if NATO is the best way for us to contribute to Western defence, to ask which nations can and will act to protect democratic values? The "Anglosphere" states all fought in Afghanistan. So too did France and Denmark. And in Asia, there are other friendly states. There is no talk of a military alliance yet but there is the possibility of coalitions of the willing. Instead of pledging fealty to NATO's hollow shell, it is time for Canadians to produce a strategy for the next twenty years. Any such review will give primacy to Canada’s alliance with the United States. But one question must be asked and answered: does NATO any longer serve our political and military needs?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America
5323. Exigencies of Future Deployments: What Canada must Exact from its Military Partners
- Author:
- Hugh Segal and Jessica McLean
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- An increase in global threats, failing states, and crisis prone regions around the world, coupled with shrinking defence budgets in the US, as well as budget cuts in Canada’s most loyal joint deployment partners – France, the UK, and The Netherlands – indicates there will be no less of a demand for Canadian deployable capacity over the next few years. In this context, understanding the ‘political’ requirements for various kinds of deployments is important and a key planning area for defence policy makers as well as military and strategic practitioners. To better understand the future of Canadian military deployments it is first necessary to examine the historical context of our post-war NATO and UN deployments as well as Prime Minister Harper’s 2006 commitment that required all significant military deployments to have parliamentary approval. Each deployment since WW II has been unique. The command structures, intelligence-sharing, mission design and assigned areas of responsibility for Canada, whether under the UN or NATO, have varied by the deployment itself and the nature of the mission. This requires our political and command requirements to adapt to the mission at hand. But whether or not Canada will participate in future deployments relies on not just being able to answer the question of “why”, but also “why us”. Reticence on the part of NATO allies will continue to be a problem in the future and so Canada must be capable to ensure it only takes part in “coalition of the willing” deployments to ensure realistic burden sharing. The pivot towards the Pacific will also require fresh and deeper intelligence cooperation with Australia, other Commonwealth partners in the region and enhanced interoperable capacity with our American allies.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Troop Deployment, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America
5324. Cybersecurity in Russian-U.S. Relations
- Author:
- Pavel Sharikov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Threats to cyberspace and to information security are emerging as central elements of Russian-U.S. security relations. As much as U.S. officials have expressed concerns about Russian-sponsored cyber-activities, Russia is equally concerned about U.S. military intentions in the cyber domain. Differing definitions of what activities pose a threat complicates relations on this issue. While the United States is concerned primarily with threats to technology and economic well-being, Russia is also concerned about activities that threaten interference in Russian sovereign affairs. Russian concerns have been heightened by repeated U.S. rebuffs on draft U.N. resolutions to address some threats. U.S. and NATO pronouncements about the need for collective defense against cyberattacks have raised similar concerns. Ongoing Russian-U.S. cooperation at the highest level demonstrates that the states recognize the common interests at stake, but officials will have to work on a mutually beneficial basis to make any level of cooperation work.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, and Information Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States of America
5325. Media Coverage of Iran's Nuclear Program
- Author:
- Jonas Siegel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- The manner in which news media frame their coverage of Iran’s nuclear program is critically important to public understanding and to policy decisions that will determine whether the dispute can be resolved without war. News coverage of the lead-up to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and of the justifications of that invasion was found to have had a profound, distorting effect on public understanding and the decision to go to war. Is news media coverage having a similar effect on U.S. and international discussions about Iran’s nuclear program? If so, how exactly is the framing of the dispute and the broader approach of news media to covering this issue affecting the choices available to policy makers? And how is coverage likely to affect the dispute’s outcome?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Power, Media, and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
5326. Asia's Uncertain Future: Korea, China's Aggressiveness, and New Leadership - Full Issue
- Author:
- Gilbert Rozman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- For over twenty years, the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) invited leading Korea and Asia scholars and experts from around the world to its annual academic symposium. Starting in 2012, KEI embarked on a new initiative to revamp this series by partnering with the Association of Asian Studies (AAS) to incorporate the symposium into the AAS annual conference. To this end, KEI organized four conference panels, advertised KEI’s outreach work to over 3,000 conference participants at AAS, and raised the profile of the Institute on a global stage. As before, KEI edited, compiled and published the research papers presented by the distinguished speakers at the symposium as part of its Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies series. Part of this new endeavor is the involvement of Dr. Gilbert Rozman, the Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University. As the Editor-in-Chief for this Joint U.S.- Korea Academic Studies volume, his knowledge and work with the authors is visible throughout this publication. Dr. Rozman also helped KEI organize four timely and topical panels at the AAS conference. His involvement is part of KEI’s constant effort to bring our subscribers high quality and informative resources on issues impacting the U.S.-Republic of Korea relationship. The events and actions in Northeast Asia continue to have important implications for the future of the region. Many of these interactions have both bilateral and multilateral effects, which our authors examine in four themes. The rise of the Asia-Pacific region is characterized by both an increase in cooperation and competition among countries, and our experts look at this dynamic through key bilateral relationships. Moreover, economics has been a vital driver of cooperation in Asia, and this volume examines this continuing trend with the development of the China-Japan-Korea trilateral relationship and the possibility of a free trade agreement among the three countries. We have a section that further analyzes the national identity aspects of the U.S.-China relationship and how national identity issues are often at the core of how other countries view themselves in the region compared to that huge bilateral relationship. Lastly, one section looks at the ever-looming question of reunification on the Korean Peninsula. As you can see, all of these are important areas for understanding and succeeding in an Asia-Pacific century.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and United States of America
5327. Le Congrès des Etats-Unis : une assemblée incontrôlable ? (Is Congress out of Control ?)
- Author:
- François Vergniolle De Chantal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- The US Congres is the most powerful legislative in the world. Its independence and its powers make it impossible for the presidency to be truly imperial. The Senate is especially influential since it allows its members to use a series of minority procedures, such as the filibuster, that exert a constant a priori pressure on the Executive. This institutional configuration is made extremely costly by the current partisan polarization. It is also, however, a functional equivalent to the theoretical parliamentary right of life and death on Executive powers.
- Topic:
- Governance, Law, Political Science, and State
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5328. Journal of Public and International Affairs 2013
- Author:
- Greg Rosalsky, Sarah Schleck, Nathaniel D. F. Allen, Ezra Levin, Alex Penwill, Farzan Sabet, Daniel Tam-Claiborne, Albert Trithart, Mark Walker, Ben Grubb, and Gloria Twesigye
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The nine articles in this volume were chosen from over 150 submissions through a blind-selection process in Princeton. After individually reading a large number of submissions, attending editors first voted for their favorite papers via secret ballot, and we then facilitated an open debate to winnow down these choices to the cream of the crop. In the intervening months before publication, editors in Princeton from relevant policy areas worked with the authors to fact-check their work and fine-tune their arguments. While their geographic foci and policy subjects are multifarious, all the authors in this edition share a passion for changing the world through better policy. Whether it is women’s health issues in Tanzania, banking regulation in the European Union, diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, or immigration policy in the United States, the authors implore global policymakers to change course in order to remedy contemporary problems in public affairs. This dedication to making the world a better place through public policy, in addition to demonstrating first-rate scholarship, make us proud to showcase these articles.
- Topic:
- Health, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Foreign Aid, Governance, Nuclear Power, Democracy, Economy, Arms Trade, and Microcredit
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Iran, Tanzania, Honduras, Mali, Niger, and United States of America
5329. The Japan-US Military Alliance and the Asia-Pacific Challenges: Prospects for Deep Changes
- Author:
- Antonio Marquina
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- In the last fifteen years a fundamental shift in the strategic balance in Asia – Pacific has taking place. The article aims at discussing the difficulties the Japan-US military Alliance has adaptating to this new regional strategic environment. It also explains the new strategy that President Obama´s Administration is trying to implement, initially called “Pivot to Asia” and later “Rebalance”. The article tries to show the challenges that this new strategy implies for both Japan and the United States, enumerating different scenarios some of them not very likely and highlighting on the contrary the possibility of a more assertive and military independent Japan.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
5330. Ugly Truths: Saddam Hussein and Other Insiders on Iraq’s Covert Bioweapons
- Author:
- Amy Smithson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Although the inspections of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), which operated from April 1991 to October 1998, unmasked Iraq’s biological weapons program and revealed a considerable amount of detail about its planning, organization, and execution, various factors about the program remain unclear. These gaps in information persisted through the activities and reporting of both the United Nations Monitoring, Verification, and Inspections Commission, which existed from December 1999 until the outbreak of the second Gulf War in March 2003, and the Iraq Survey Group, which reported on the remnants of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction capabilities after the 2003 Gulf War.1 To deepen understanding about Iraq’s biological weapons program, a team of analysts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) identified a number of research questions that, if answered, would provide a more comprehensive account of Iraq’s biological and chemical weapons programs. The twenty research questions ran the gamut of relevant topics. Specifically with regard to the bioweapons program, the research questions sought to clarify the reasons behind Iraq’s choice of biowarfare agents and delivery systems, the timeline and technical specifics for certain activities, possible interaction with governments and biowarfare experts outside of Iraq, the management of the program, and the details of how Iraq disposed of its biological munitions and bulk biowarfare agent. In an effort to answer some or all of these questions, CNS’s staff turned to the records of the Conflict Records Research Center (CRRC) database. In mid-July 2011, the time in which CNS’s staff reviewed the CRRC records for information pertinent to Iraq’s biological weapons program, it should be noted that a relatively small fraction of the documents in the possession of the CRRC had been translated into English and made available in the CRRC database. Accordingly, the review of the database did not turn up a tremendous number of documents providing insights about Iraq’s biological weapons program. Nonetheless, the review uncovered several documents that shed light largely on the political management of Iraq’s bioweapons program and how Iraq’s leaders tried to cope with UNSCOM’s inspections. This report, which begins with a brief review of the search methodology, otherwise presents the research findings in rough but not exact chronological order. To help the reader quickly grasp the relevance of the research findings in a history that is complicated and sometimes full of technical detail, the research findings are interlaced with background derived largely from Germ Gambits: The Bioweapons Dilemma, Iraq and Beyond (Stanford University Press, 2011). Germ Gambits, which tells the tale of UNSCOM’s bioweapons inspections in Iraq, is based primarily on interviews with UNSCOM inspectors, buttressed by UNSCOM documents and secondary materials. Therefore, any citation to Germ Gambits is based on numerous authoritative sources. Because this report provides the unadulterated Iraqi view on certain topics, in a certain sense it is like seeing the other side of the coin that Germ Gambits presents. CNS Senior fellow Amy E. Smithson, PhD, wrote Germ Gambits and was the principal researcher reviewing the biological weapons-related documents in the CRRC database.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Nonproliferation, Conflict, and Biological Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
5331. Attack of the Drones: Ethical, Legal and Strategic Implications of UAV Use
- Author:
- Lena Simone Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States has dramatically increased the development, acquisition, and use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). As these systems have grown, a chorus of skeptics has raised questions about the tactical, ethical, and strategic implications of this technology.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Drones, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5332. Debating US Interests in Syria's Civil War
- Author:
- Brian Haggerty
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of a chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus on August 21, President Obama's threat to launch a limited cruise missile strike to "deter and degrade" Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's chemical weapons capability has once again thrust U.S. Syria policy to the forefront of national debate.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
5333. Challengers from the Sidelines: Understanding America’s Violent Far-Right
- Author:
- Arie Perliger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In the last few years, and especially since 2007, there has been a dramatic rise in the number of attacks and violent plots originating from individuals and groups who self-identify with the far-right of American politics. These incidents cause many to wonder whether these are isolated attacks, an increasing trend, part of increasing societal violence, or attributable to some other condition. To date, however, there has been limited systematic documentation and analysis of incidents of American domestic violence. This study provides a conceptual foundation for understanding different far-right groups and then presents the empirical analysis of violent incidents to identify those perpetrating attacks and their associated trends. Through a comprehensive look at the data, this study addresses three core questions: (1) What are the main current characteristics of the violence produced by the far right? (2) What type of far-right groups are more prone than others to engage in violence? How are characteristics of particular far-right groups correlated with their tendency to engage in violence? (3) What are the social and political factors associated with the level of far-right violence? Are there political or social conditions that foster or discourage violence? It is important to note that this study concentrates on those individuals and groups who have actually perpetuated violence and is not a comprehensive analysis of the political causes with which some far-right extremists identify. While the ability to hold and appropriately articulate diverse political views is an American strength, extremists committing acts of violence in the name of those causes undermine the freedoms that they purport to espouse.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Ideology, Far Right, and Recruitment
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5334. Shale gas: Negotiating new energy, export finance and environmental equations
- Author:
- Karan Pradhan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
- Abstract:
- ndia is the second largest (after Mexico) client of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, with an $8.5 billion line of credit. The energy and petrochemicals sectors are the major beneficiaries. The discovery of shale gas and the development of related technology in the U.S., however, are likely to change the nature of the exports of energy products and technology to India. The financing to procure them will also be different, because the U.S is willing to compete with China on financial terms. Moreover, the shift from oil and compressed natural gas to shale can have a cascading negative impact on India’s environment, if opportunities in tapping alternative energy sources are neglected. Indian policy must balance the benefits of securing new technology and better financing for shale gas exploration within the country and from imports, with a firm commitment to renewable energy initiatives within the country.
- Topic:
- Environment, Gas, Finance, Exports, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and United States of America
5335. The Senkaku Islands and the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Future Implications for the Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Tetsuo Kotani
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- By challenging Japan’s control of the Senkaku Islands, China is testing the resolve of Tokyo and the strategic position of Washington. In other words, China is testing the credibility of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Casual observers tend to overlook or underestimate the confront-ation that ensued between Tokyo and Beijing after the Japanese government formally purchased three Senkaku islets in September 2012.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America
5336. Clarifying U.S. – Japan Mine Warfare Roles, Missions, and Capabilities in the Persian Gulf: An Examination of International Legal Issues
- Author:
- Sean Henseler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The “Armitage/Nye Report” suggests that one area for potential increased alliance defense cooperation is minesweeping in the Persian Gulf. There is no question that Japan has the capability to deploy minesweepers to the Gulf and that doing so might have a deterrent effect were Iran to announce once again that it was planning to close the SOH. The real question for policymakers revolves around Japanese willingness to do so.
- Topic:
- International Law, War, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, Persian Gulf, and United States of America
5337. A ‘New Era’ for Japan’s Global Engagement and the U.S.-Japan Alliance
- Author:
- Yukio Tada
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- There have been already “many ‘firsts’” in the Abe 2.0 administration. With continued political leadership and bold economic initiatives on both sides, there is now a historic opportunity to help get the U.S.-Japan alliance back on the right track.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, Economy, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and United States of America
5338. Upgrading the Japan-U.S. Defense Guidelines: Toward a New Phase of Operational Coordination
- Author:
- Sugio Takahashi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The Japan-U.S. alliance has unique organizational characteristics compared to other major U.S. military alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the U.S.-ROK (Republic of Korea) alliance. While these two alliances have a single integrated command and control (C2) structure for wartime coalition operation, the Japan-U.S. alliance lacks a permanent institution for combined operation. In the event of a military contingency, Japanese Self-Defense Force (SDF) and U.S. military forces must operate separately. In the absence of a C2 structure, the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation (hereafter “Defense Guidelines”) in effect embody procedures for operational coordination for the Japan-U.S. alliance.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
5339. Managing Expectations in the U.S.-Japan Alliance: U.S. and Japanese Perspectives
- Author:
- Randall Schriver and Sugio Takahashi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- As a participant in the Armitage-Nye process, I am associated with a set of policy recommendations that have been remarkably consistent over the course of twelve years and three reports (Armitage-Nye reports were produced in 2000, 2007, and 2012 respectively). Some common themes run across all three reports: We are unapologetic about promoting high aspirations for the U.S.-Japan alliance. We attempt to outline an ambitious bilateral agenda in great specificity. We believe that those aspirations and the ambitious agenda can only be met through the intentional and dedicated efforts of senior political leaders on both sides.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5340. Obama’s Second Term in the Asia-Pacific Region: Reflecting on the Past, Looking to the Future
- Author:
- Sabrina Tsai
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The Asia-Pacific region proved to be one of the top priorities of U.S. foreign policy during President Obama’s first term. The East China Sea and South China Sea territorial disputes; Kim Jong-un’s succession to the North Korean leadership and subsequent provocations; and China’s rapid military modernization over the last two decades were and continue to be among some of the top security issues for the Obama Administration. This paper outlines Obama’s Asia policy in the first term and assesses the trajectory of the U.S. “rebalance” strategy in the second term, taking into account the numerous personnel changes in Obama’s senior-level foreign policy team.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Barack Obama
- Political Geography:
- China, North Korea, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
5341. Toward a New Phase of US-China Museum Collaborations
- Author:
- Melissa Chiu, Orville Schell, and András Szántó
- Publication Date:
- 01-2013
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- The 2012 U.S.-China Museum Directors Forum, organized by Asia Society and the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, brought together 17 Chinese and 15 American museum leaders for a two-day dialogue to assess common needs and develop new processes for museum exchanges. The museum leaders identified various benefits of museum exchanges. Such programs provide information and experiences to museum audiences; foster tolerance and understanding between nations; and enhance cultural competence in a globalized world. The directors also identified obstacles impeding museum collaborations, including disparities in resources and practices; cumbersome bureaucratic, legal, and regulatory systems; a lack of familiarity between museum professionals; and the absence of institutional and funding mechanisms to facilitate exchanges. Going forward, the museum leaders pinpointed three key areas of need and opportunity for the evolution of U.S.-China museum collaborations: improving people-to-people contacts; fostering institutional relations; and greater coordination within the museum sector in both countries. Taken together, the recommendations offer a blueprint for improving institutional interactions. The directors suggested specific programs that their institutions, coupled with other museums, government agencies, and private funders, can pursue going forward. The consensus view among them was that the expansion of museum collaborations will require new funding and organizational mechanisms to spur and conduct exchange activities. Some of the goals outlined by the Chinese and American museum directors will be pursued by the Asian Arts and Museum Network, established in 2012 by Asia Society Museum.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arts, Culture, and Museums
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5342. Liberalism in Obama's age
- Author:
- John Ikenberry
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- I'm trying to lay out my thinking on Obama's foreign policy and the larger debate often seen inside the United States about the role of the United States over the next years.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Liberalism, and Barack Obama
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5343. Transnational Civil Society and the Consumer-friendly Turn in Financial Regulation
- Author:
- Lisa Kastner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- The literature on financial regulation has typically emphasized the role of the powerful financial industry in shaping regulatory outcomes. However, capture theories cannot explain the prominence of financial consumer protection in post-crisis reform agendas. By contrast, this paper argues that, despite their collective action disadvantage, a polymorphous network of civil society organizations was able to gain momentum after the financial crisis and to influence the financial reform process. In this policy window, where decision-makers were looking out for an alternative source of expertise, a transnationally connected civil society network successfully raised the issue of consumer protection on reform agendas in tandem with public entrepreneurs and on the back of a popular backlash against big finance. This argument will be explored through a comparative study of the impact of transnational pressures on policy-makers in Europe and the US in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. In the conclusion, the paper discusses the substance of the financial reforms that have been undertaken.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Economics, Regulation, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
5344. Crisis and Calm: Demand for U.S. Currency at Home and Abroad From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to 2011
- Author:
- Ruth Judson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- U.S. currency has long been a desirable store of value and medium of exchange in times and places where local currency or bank deposits are inferior in one or more respects. Indeed, as noted in earlier work, a substantial share of U.S. currency circulates outside the United States. Although precise measurements of stocks and flows of U.S. currency outside the United States are not available, a variety of data sources and methods have been developed to provide estimates. This paper reviews the raw data available for measuring international banknote flows and presents updates on indirect methods of estimating the stock of currency held abroad: the seasonal method and the biometric method. These methods require some adjustments, but they continue to indicate that a large share of U.S. currency is held abroad, especially in the $100 denomination. In addition to these existing indirect methods, I develop a framework and basic variants of a new method to estimate the share of U.S. currency held abroad. Although the methods and estimates are disparate, they provide support for several hypotheses regarding cross-border dollar stocks and flows. First, once a country or region begins using dollars, subsequent crises result in additional inflows: the dominant sources of international demand over the past decade and a half are the countries and regions that were known to be heavy dollar users in the early to mid-1990s. Second, economic stabilization and modernization appear to result in reversal of these inflows. Specifically, demand for U.S. currency was extremely strong through the 1990s, a period of turmoil for the former Soviet Union and for Argentina, two of the largest overseas users of U.S. currency. Demand eased in the early 2000s as conditions gradually stabilized and as financial institutions developed. However, this trend reversed sharply with the onset of the financial crisis in late 2008 and has continued since then.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Currency, Banking, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5345. On Returns Differentials
- Author:
- Stephanie E. Curcuru, Charles Thomas, and Francis E. Warnock
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Estimates of U.S. returns differentials have ranged from exorbitant to quite small, in part because of their volatility coupled with the relatively short time series available. We shed light on underlying drivers of returns differentials by presenting a number of decompositions: a by-asset-class decomposition into yields and capital gains, the Gourinchas and Rey (2007a) composition and return effects, and further decompositions of capital gains that focus on exchange rate effects. While each decomposition informs thinking about returns differentials, one constant is evident throughout: to date the existing differential favoring the U.S. has owed primarily to one factor, a differential in direct investment yields. We discuss how our analysis informs the income puzzle (of positive net income flows to the U.S. even as its net international investment position is negative and substantial) and the position puzzle (of a sizeable gap between the reported U.S. net international position and cumulated current account deficits), provide an initial assessment of the literature on the dynamics of returns differentials, and present a framework to guide a forward-looking view of how returns differentials might evolve in the future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, Investment, and Stock Markets
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5346. Do Central Banks' Forecasts Take Into Account Public Opinion and Views?
- Author:
- Ricardo Nunes
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The Federal Reserve through the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly releases macroeconomic forecasts to the general public and the US congress with the purpose of explaining the likely evolution of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Immediately before doing so, the FOMC receives a forecast produced by the Federal Reserve staff which remains private for five years. The literature has pointed out that, despite the informational advantage of the FOMC, its forecast differs from and is not always more accurate than the staff forecast. This finding has raised concerns regarding the loss of relevant information and the usefulness of the FOMC forecasts. This paper brings evidence that the FOMC forecast also incorporates other publicly available forecasts and views, and that the weight attributed to public forecasts is larger than what is optimal given a mean squared error objective. These findings are consistent with i) the institutional role of the FOMC in being representative of a variety of public views, ii) the academic literature recommendation to use equal weights and not to overfit specific forecasts based on past performance. The statistical model can also account for several empirical regularities of the forecasts.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Governance, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5347. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?
- Author:
- Shaghil Ahmed and Andrei Zlate
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We examine the determinants of net private capital inflows to emerging market economies. These inflows are computed from quarterly balance-of-payments data from 2002:Q1 to 2012:Q2. Our main findings are: First, growth and interest rate differentials between EMEs and advanced economies and global risk appetite are statistically and economically important determinants of net private capital inflows. Second, there have been significant changes in the behavior of net inflows from the period before the recent global financial crisis to the post-crisis period, especially for portfolio inflows, partly explained by the greater sensitivity of such .flows to interest rate differentials and risk aversion. Third, capital control measures introduced in recent years do appear to have discouraged both total and portfolio inflows. Fourth, in the pre-crisis period, there is some evidence that greater foreign exchange intervention to curb currency appreciation pressures brought more capital inflows down the line, but we cannot identify such an effect in the post-crisis period. Finally, we do not find statistically significant positive effects of unconventional U.S. monetary expansion on total net EME inflows, although there does seem to be a change in composition toward portfolio flows. Even for portfolio flows, U.S. unconventional policy is only one among several important factors.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Interest Rates, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5348. International Evidence on Government Support and Risk Taking in the Banking Sector
- Author:
- Luis Brandao-Marques, Ricardo Correa, and Horacio Sapriza
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Government support to banks through the provision of explicit or implicit guarantees affects the willingness of banks to take on risk by reducing market discipline or by increasing charter value. We use an international sample of rated banks and find that government support is associated with more risk taking by banks, especially prior and during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. We also find that restricting banks range of activities ameliorates the link between government support and bank risk taking. We conclude that strengthening market discipline by reducing bank complexity is needed to address this moral hazard problem.
- Topic:
- Governance, Regulation, Risk, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5349. "Fool Me Once . . . " Did U.S. Investors Play it Safer in the European Debt Crisis?
- Author:
- Carol C. Bertaut, Fang Cai, and Nyssa Kim
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper examines U.S. investors' portfolio investment patterns since the global financial crisis, particularly since the European debt crisis that began in late 2009. The global financial crisis during 2007-2009 was accompanied by an increase in U.S. investors' home bias. U.S. investors experienced significant valuation losses and pulled back notably from their foreign investment, especially from foreign debt. In contrast, while they have also incurred sizable losses on cross-border investment during the European debt crisis, U.S. investors so far have not shown any increase in home bias, and they have not even pulled back from their long-term investments in Europe. Holdings data show that U.S. investors have continued to invest in European securities, particularly in government debt, but have made little new investment in the financial sector. This continued interest in European securities could owe to the fact that most of U.S. holdings of European debt have been concentrated in dollar-denominated debt issued by core euro area countries and the United Kingdom, which are deemed relatively safe. Changes in the composition of holdings over the past couple years suggest that U.S. investors have behaved in a way that reflects their diversity and differing objectives: while investors reached for higher yields in government debt, there also appears to be some shift toward safer investment in the financial sector.
- Topic:
- Debt, Financial Crisis, Investment, Securities, and Stock Markets
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
5350. Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S.
- Author:
- Illenin O. Kondo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Using data on trade-induced displacements, this paper documents that locations facing more foreign competition in the U.S. have: higher job destruction rates, lower job creation rates, and thereby lower employment rates. In contrast to standard trade theory, a model with variable markups and heterogeneous segmented labor markets is consistent with these facts. Foreign competition has a correlated effect on job destruction and job creation precisely because the most vulnerable locations also have lower productivity. Following an unexpected trade liberalization with limited mobility, employment sharply falls in the worse hit locations while welfare and employment increase in the aggregate.
- Topic:
- Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Reform, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America