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5252. The PLA General Staff Department Third Department Second Bureau: An Organizational Overview of Unit 61398
- Author:
- Mark Stokes
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- In May 2014, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) announced indictments against five Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers on charges of cyber espionage directed against U.S. firms. According to the indictments, the five officers were assigned to the Third Office of the PLA General Staff Department (GSD) Technical Reconnaissance Department (alternatively known as the Third Department) Second Bureau. While assigned personnel may well engage in cyber espionage, a survey of Second Bureau infrastructure indicates a much broader communications intelligence mission.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Espionage
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5253. Working With a Rising India
- Author:
- Charles R. Kayne, Joseph S. Nye Jr., and Alyssa Ayres
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- “A rising India offers one of the most substantial opportunities to advance American national interests over the next two decades,” asserts a new Independent Task Force report sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Working With a Rising India: A Joint Venture for the New Century. Over the past ten years, India, the world's largest democracy, has lifted more than 130 million people out of poverty. The country has rebounded from a recent economic growth slump, surpassing China this year to become the world's fastest-growing major economy. “If India can maintain its current growth rate, let alone attain sustained double digits, it has the potential over the next two to three decades to follow China on the path to becoming another $10 trillion economy,” notes the Task Force. With Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's prioritization of economic growth and foreign policy revitalization, the country now has a window of opportunity to either make the necessary reforms or risk being left behind. “[India] will have to decide whether it wants to become a major part of global trade flows and deeply integrated into global supply chains. Doing so would boost India's efforts to grow its manufacturing sector and its economy; choosing not to will make that ambition harder to achieve.” Because India does not seek an alliance with the United States and closely guards its policy independence, U.S.-India relations will not resemble those Washington has with its conventional allies. For that reason, the Task Force recommends that “U.S. policymakers [should] explicitly emphasize a ‘joint-venture’ model for U.S.-India relations, focused on a slate of shared pursuits on which interests converge—and with clear mechanisms for coordinating and managing the known and expected disagreements.” The bipartisan Task Force is chaired by Charles R. Kaye, co-chief executive officer of the private equity firm Warburg Pincus and former chairman of the U.S.-India Business Council, and Joseph S. Nye Jr., distinguished service professor and former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. Directed by CFR Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia Alyssa Ayres, the Task Force is composed of sixteen prominent experts from government, academic, nonprofit, and other sectors.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5254. Implications of Operation Decisive Storm
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia, along with nine of its allies, has launched an offensive on the Houthi groups in Yemen. This offensive will have implications on not only Saudi Arabia and its immediate neighbours, but also on other international actors, including Iran and western countries such as the United States. This paper addresses the repercussions of this operation in light of growing Iranian expansion in the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
5255. Operation Decisive Storm: Reshuffling Regional Order
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Operation Decisive Storm is being interpreted as a first step towards curbing Iranian expansion in the Arab world rather than a step towards protecting Yemen and its legitimacy. Pakistan and Turkey’s support for this operation is significant in light of the US’ visible withdrawal from the region. With the operation still in its early days, it has become imperative to re-examine its goals, their feasibility, and implications of the attacks.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America
5256. Realized Bank Risk during the Great Recession
- Author:
- Yener Altunbas, Simone Manganelli, and David Marques-Ibanez
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In the years preceding the 2007-2009 financial crisis, forward-looking indicators of bank risk concentrated and suggested unusually low expectations of bank default. We assess whether the ex-ante (i.e. prior to the crisis) cross-sectional variability in bank characteristics is related to the ex-post (i.e. during the crisis) materialization of bank risk. Our tailor-made dataset crucially accounts for the different dimensions of realized bank risk including access to central bank liquidity during the crisis. We consistently find that less reliance on deposit funding, more aggressive credit growth, larger size and leverage were associated with larger levels of realized risk. The impact of these characteristics is particularly relevant for capturing the systemic dimensions of bank risk and tends to become stronger for the tail of the riskier banks. The majority of these characteristics also predicted bank risk as materialized before the financial crisis.
- Topic:
- Global Recession, Financial Crisis, Risk, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5257. Identifying Foreign Suppliers in U.S. Import Data
- Author:
- Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Relationships between firms and their foreign suppliers are the foundation of international trade, but data limitations and reliability concerns make studying such relationships challenging. We evaluate and enhance supplier information in U.S. import data and present new facts about importer-exporter relationships. Count of foreign exporters from U.S. import data tends to exceed those from source country data, especially from China. The pattern of U.S. imports from origin countries changes substantially by tracing trade back to the supplier's location instead. Related-party relationships trade more, while larger countries have more relationships.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment, Business, Trade, Data, and Imports
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5258. A Frustrating Start to 2015 for the US
- Author:
- Brad Glosserman and Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- President Obama initiated his long-awaited (and long overdue) quest for “fast track” or Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) from the US Congress, understanding that final negotiations and eventual passage (or not) of his Asian “rebalance” economic centerpiece, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement, rests upon achieving TPA. Without TPP, Obama’s already tarnished leadership image will be severely damaged, his “lame duck” status will be solidified at home and abroad, and his Asian pivot will be seen not as the multidimensional strategy it was intended to be but largely a unidimensional (security) single-focused (China) strategy. Meanwhile, China continued to tarnish US and ASEAN leadership through its accelerated island-building projects in the South China Sea, while Washington’s badly managed response to China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiative provided another (self-inflicted) wound. Washington’s questions were the right ones, but its seemingly “choose between us and China” approach resulted in most US partners and allies choosing Beijing. Finally, US-DPRK and North-South relations went through cycles of hope and despair with no real progress in sight, as speculation runs rampant as to why Kim Jong-Un decided not to go to Moscow.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
5259. US-Japan Relations: Strategic Alignment
- Author:
- Michael J. Green and Nicholas Szechenyi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Benefiting from a window of political stability, the Abe government continued to focus on the twin pillars of economic strategy and defense policy reform. Bilateral engagement on security, trade, and regional and global issues informed the agenda for the prime minister’s official visit to Washington in late April, the first by a Japanese leader in nine years. Abe also became the first Japanese leader to address a joint session of Congress and relayed the main themes from his summit with President Obama by reflecting on the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, celebrating the evolution of the US-Japan alliance, and outlining a strategic vision for the future.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5260. DPRK Nuclear and Missile Threat Looms
- Author:
- Stephen Noerper
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The early months of 2015 saw little change in US-DPRK relations while there were several positive developments in US-ROK relations. There were new US sanctions on North Korea over the Sony Pictures cyber-hacking incident and increased concern about North Korean advances in nuclear and missile technology as the US and others continued to criticize the DPRK’s human rights record. Meanwhile, South Korea and the US held their annual military exercises and concluded a new civilian nuclear agreement. Distractions from the positive trajectory in US-ROK relations included the debate over the value of deploying the THAAD system in South Korea and the unfortunate attack on US Ambassador Mark Lippert.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
5261. South China Sea Wariness
- Author:
- Sheldon Simon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In the first four months of 2015, senior State and Defense Department officials as well as flag-rank military officers visited Southeast Asia, all emphasizing ASEAN’s importance for the Obama administration’s rebalance policy. The US is building a rotational force deployment capacity in the region along with military assistance to allies and partners, especially for increasing their maritime security capabilities. Washington and Manila await a Supreme Court decision regarding the constitutionality of the April 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which will permit better access for US forces. Washington has also emphasized Vietnam’s importance to the rebalance, currently concentrating on improving coast guard relations. However, the US was dismayed that Hanoi permitted Russian tanker aircraft to fly out of Cam Ranh Bay to refuel bombers that flew near US bases in Guam. The Indonesian Navy has shown interest in more naval exercises with the US around the Natuna Islands. Problems persist in US-Thai relations as the military consolidates its rule. Although the annual Cobra Gold exercise took place in February, Washington scaled back US participation and significantly reduced the kinetic component. Planning for next year’s exercise is in limbo. Finally, Japan and India have shown support for maritime security buildups and an enhanced naval presence in the South China Sea.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5262. Back in the Same Orbit and Back on Earth
- Author:
- Satu Limaye
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Given the drift and depths to which the US-India relationship has succumbed throughout much of 2013 and the early part of 2014, visits by the two heads of government in the span of a few months constituted something of a return to the same orbit, symbolized by the fact that the two countries’ Mars orbiters (Mangalyaan and Maven) had entered the planet’s orbit within a couple of days of each other. Prime Minister Modi visited Washington in late September 2014, just four months after taking office. President Obama followed up with an important visit to India in January 2015 as the “Chief Guest” for India’s Republic Day, the first US president to be accorded this honor. But as always with US-India relations, positive symbols are suffused with caution. In the event, there were no major run-ins during the period of US-India relations covered by this article. Though, there were few major breakthroughs either. The relationship did recover very soon after the resounding election victory of Narendra Modi following India’s national elections in May 2014. The pace at which high-level US-India ties were reestablished under a Modi administration was something of a surprise given the unusual situation of his being barred from traveling to the US due to allegations about his role in the communal riots between Hindus and Muslims in the Indian state of Gujarat that he once led as chief minister. The improbable dilemma of the US government banning an official visit by a democratically elected leader, who had not been convicted of illegal acts by his own country or any international body, was finessed by simply removing the ban and issuing a message of warm welcome by President Obama himself. Prime Minister Modi thus visited Washington in late September 2014, just four months after taking office and on the back of an appearance at the annual UN General Assembly meeting in New York. President Obama followed up with an important visit to India in January 2015 as the “Chief Guest” for India’s Republic Day, the first US president to be accorded this honor. Obama also became the first US president to visit India twice while in office. Another first was the appointment in December 2014 of a US ambassador to India of Indian origin, Richard Rahul Verma. Given the drift and depths to which the bilateral relationship has succumbed throughout much of 2013 and the early part of 2014, the two heads of government visits constituted something of a return to the same orbit, symbolized by the fact that the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) respective Mars orbiters (Mangalyaan and Maven) had entered the planet’s orbit within a couple of days of each other. Indeed, PM Modi alluded to the connection at a joint media conference with President Obama in September saying “I’m happy that we are meeting here just a few days after the Indian and the U.S. missions reached Mars around the same time. So after the India-U.S. summit on Mars, we are meeting here on Earth. This happy coincidence captures the potential of our relationship.” But as always with US-India relations, positive symbols are suffused with caution. While also noting the “pleasant coincidence” of the two orbiters proximate trip to Mars, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance Frank Rose suggested to an Indian audience in March 2015 that the time might be right for a “Space Situational Awareness” information sharing agreement, implying to listeners the need to avoid accidental collisions. In the event, there were no major run-ins during the period of US-India relations covered by this article. Though, as will become clear, there were few major breakthroughs either.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5263. The Rebalance Picks up Steam
- Author:
- Brad Glosserman and Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The big news over the summer is the granting of “fast track” Trade Promotion Authority to President Obama by the US Congress. This keeps hopes alive for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the economic centerpiece of the Obama administration’s rebalance to Asia. The political and military legs of this multidimensional strategy got a boost as Secretary of State John Kerry attended the annual ASEAN Regional Forum ministerial meeting and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter headlined the show at the Shangri-La Dialogue. China continues to make its presence felt in regional affairs as well; President Xi Jinping attended meetings in Ufa, Russia with other BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders and hosted a Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) Special Working Group and Senior Officials Committee Meeting and first CICA Youth Council Conference in Beijing, while continuing to pursue his Silk Road and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiatives, even as China’s economy took a significant hit. Meanwhile, Pyongyang engaged in another round of Russian roulette but backed down when it became apparent Seoul was prepared to pull the trigger. Finally, the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II put history on the front pages. That opened the door to the next round of negotiations among TPP representatives in July in Maui, but they couldn’t close the deal. Post-mortems blamed disputes between Japan and North America over cars (Mexico was particularly incensed over “rules of origin” that would impact its access to the US market), New Zealand recalcitrance over trade in dairy items (pique inspired by Canada’s refusal to open its market, which prompted the US and Japan to low-ball their offers), a split between Australia and the US over sugar markets, and US resistance to any cuts in the duration of intellectual property rights monopoly periods for next-generation drugs. US Trade Representative Michael Froman said the talks made “significant progress” – Australian Trade Minister Andrew Robb agreed, adding that “98 percent is concluded” – but the tough issues remained, well, hard to resolve. In his analysis for The Oriental Economist, Rick Katz argued that deals negotiated with Congress to secure TPA reduced Froman’s negotiating room. There is fear now that the failure to reach agreement means that no deal will be concluded for at least another year and a half. Canada holds an election in October and the conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper needs to hold the line on agriculture imports to avoid losing votes. That means that he cannot negotiate a deal until after that ballot – assuming he wins; an opposition victory will raise the bar to any deal – which then pushes any final agreement to 2016 and the midst of a US presidential campaign, which is no time for bold legislative action. If that assessment is correct, then there is the possibility that a final deal won’t be concluded until 2017 or 2018.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, and United States of America
5264. History and Other Alliance Constraints
- Author:
- Charles McClean and Sheila A. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In the wake of a highly successful April visit by Prime Minister Abe Shinzo to Washington, the US-Japan relationship seemed poised for a celebration of success in revamping the alliance. Two focal points of alliance policymakers were the Guidelines for US-Japan Defense Cooperation and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). But over the summer, both of these initiatives came under political scrutiny. Beyond alliance priorities, the US and Japan faced additional dilemmas in how to deal with a more assertive and sensitive China. Artificial island building by China in the South China Sea brought the US and Japan into closer dialogue over regional maritime cooperation. At the end of the summer, the much-anticipated commemorations of the end of World War II in Japan and China brought heightened sensitivity to the region. Beyond bilateral alliance priorities, the US and Japan faced additional dilemmas, both related to dealing with a more assertive and sensitive China. Artificial island building in the Spratlys and a cyber attack on the US Office of Personnel Management rattled US-China relations, which brought the US and Japan into closer dialogue over regional maritime cooperation. Senior Japanese military leaders began to speak publicly about the possibility of a larger Japanese role in the South China Sea. At the end of the summer, the much-anticipated commemorations of the end of World War II in Japan and China brought heightened sensitivity to the region. The Aug. 14 Abe Statement and Xi Jinping’s speech at the national military parade on Sept. 3, the day of Japanese surrender in China, demonstrated the distance between the two neighbors. Each revealed a new revisionist gaze on their war legacy, and it was hard to ignore the undertones of contemporary bilateral tensions in both leaders’ remarks. Abe chose not to travel to China, although he did not announce his decision until just days before.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5265. Prospects for a Strategic Partnership?
- Author:
- Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- President Park Geun-hye’s participation in China’s 70th anniversary celebrations of the end of WWII in September affirmed Seoul’s ties with China, while enabling Seoul to go on the offensive to win Beijing’s acceptance of a Seoul-led reunification of the Korean Peninsula. The escalation of inter-Korean tensions in late August revealed the dilemmas underlying Seoul’s regional diplomacy that continue to undermine coordination on North Korea and other security challenges. Nevertheless, both China and South Korea are engaging in parallel efforts to revive commercial ties with the North. Meanwhile, South Korea has made clear for now that its ability to engage China lies firmly on the foundations provided by a strong US-ROK security alliance; however, we expect that Beijing will continuously test Seoul’s allegiances. Although Workers’ Party of Korea Secretary Choe Ryong Hae represented Pyongyang at the war commemoration ceremonies and military parade in Beijing, replacing Kim Jong Un with Park on the rostrum and the absence of direct leadership exchanges between China and North Korea indicates Pyongyang’s continued political isolation. Likewise, nominal head of state Kim Yong Nam “exchanged greetings” with President Xi at Moscow’s own WWII commemorations on May 9 according to the DPRK state media, but both Beijing and Pyongyang downplayed the exchange. DPRK missile tests on May 9 and June 14 demonstrated Kim Jong Un’s growing nuclear drive and his dismissal of Chinese calls for regional stability. At ASEAN meetings on August 5-6 in Kuala Lumpur, PRC and ROK Foreign Ministers Wang Yi and Yun Byung-se joined regional partners in opposing North Korean actions. Later, an artillery exchange between the two Koreas on Aug. 20 threatened to escalate tensions on the peninsula and underscored the ongoing deadlock in regional diplomacy. North Korea bristled at Chinese statements calling on the two Koreas to “exercise restraint.” In fact, China and South Korea are conducting vibrant exchanges, while China’s interactions with North Korea are nowhere to be seen. Six months after Presidents Xi and Park declared the end of substantive talks, Commerce Ministers Gao Hucheng and Yoo Sang-jick signed the China-ROK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in Seoul on June 1. Gao also met President Park and Foreign Minister Yun. China-South Korean political and military interactions indicate efforts to upgrade their partnership beyond trade. Top legislator Zhang Dejiang made a three-day visit to South Korea on June 10-12, meeting President Park, National Assembly Speaker Chung Ui-hwa, and ruling Saenuri Party leader Kim Moo-sung. On the military side, PRC Defense Minister Chang Wanquan met ROK Army Chief of Staff Kim Yo-hwan in Beijing on May 12, while ROK counterpart Han Min-koo met PLA Vice Chief of Staff Sun Jianguo at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore later that month. PLA Navy Commander Adm. Wu Shengli met ROK Navy Chief of Staff Adm. Chung Ho-seop in Beijing on June 11. Despite agreements on bilateral security cooperation, however, such exchanges did not produce any pledges on how to address immediate security threats from North Korea. South Korea’s military ties with the US emerged as a clear point of friction ahead of meetings between regional defense chiefs in May.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
5266. To August 15 – Toward September 3
- Author:
- James J Przystup
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The summer months witnessed a parade of senior Liberal Democratic Party figures traveling to Beijing. The visits were aimed at sustaining positive political trends, securing an invitation for Abe to visit China, and anticipating issues related to Abe’s August statement commemorating the end of World War II. Meanwhile, China prepared to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War with a victory parade on Sept. 3. Against this backdrop, each country sought to enhance its security posture in the East China Sea and South China Sea, further besetting bilateral relations.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5267. Alliance, Trade, Climate, and China
- Author:
- Graeme Dobell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The Obama administration and the Abbott government stood together in the new military coalition in Iraq and joined in the trade push for a Trans-Pacific Partnership. Australia’s Defence White Paper, about to be released, will be a strong and detailed statement of support for the alliance with the US. Yet, the discussion of the US-Australia relationship often turned into a debate about China. The notable political difference between Obama and Abbott in the past 12 months was over climate change. The US president highlighted the policy difference in a speech during the G20 Summit that Abbott hosted in Brisbane. The other divergence between Australia and the US was over China’s creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. After initially sharing US fears about the bank, the Abbott government eventually decided to abandon the US and Japan and became a founding member.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, International Cooperation, Alliance, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5268. Nuclear Cruise Missiles: Asset or Liability?
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The future of U.S. and Russian nuclear cruise missiles is at an inflection point. Russia's alleged testing of a ground-launched cruise missile has jeopardized not only the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, but other bilateral nuclear agreements as well, adding further strain to the U.S.-Russian relationship. The U.S. allegation and Moscow's three counter charges should be resolved with the help of the treaty's Special Verification Commission, which was explicitly designed to deal with compliance issues. But the two countries need to take a broader look at nuclear cruise missiles. New strategic cruise missiles are part of an unaffordable drive by Washington and Moscow to simultaneously modernize all three legs of their strategic arsenals. Given the increasingly marginal role that nuclear cruise missiles play in ensuring a U.S.-Russian balance and their destabilizing impact when deployed by emerging nuclear powers such as Pakistan, it is time to consider doing away with them entirely.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
5269. Pioneers of a European Diplomatic System: EU Delegations in Moscow and Washington
- Author:
- Heidi Maurer and Kristi Raik
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Since December 2009, the European Union has been represented abroad by more than 130 delegations, which are an integral part of the new European External Action Service (EEAS). This paper explores the performance and potential of the delegations in contributing to a common EU foreign policy. The delegations have to strike the right balance between performing the functions of traditional diplomatic missions, while also representing the EU as a political entity that is more than an international organization, but less than a state. The delegations act as a bridge between nascent EU diplomacy and the national diplomacies of the member states. They are also microcosms that gather together under one roof different elements of the EU’s external relations, ranging from the Common Foreign and Security Policy to trade and aid, energy and migration. The delegations have been rather successful in their three main tasks: representing the Union towards third countries, coordinating and providing services to the member states, and contributing to EU policy-making. This paper focuses on two key locations, Moscow and Washington, where the delegations are becoming visible diplomatic actors providing added value to member states as well as EU institutions. The authors argue that, following on from an early albeit cautious success, the delegations should take a stronger role in providing input into EU policy-making, promoting European interests abroad, and advancing consensus among member states’ representatives in the field. The EEAS headquarters should build a stronger link to the delegations, through more active political steering and by endeavouring to make more systematic use of the work on the ground.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and United States of America
5270. Rethinking U.S.-China Security Cooperation
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that traditional arms control approaches no longer work well for even traditional security problems on the U.S.-Chinese security agenda for three reasons: Firstly, even when both states reason for arms control from the superpowers’ experience during the Cold War, they do so in different ways; secondly, a growing number of experts and policy elite in both countries do not think the benefits of formal arms control outweigh the costs and risks; and thirdly, those who think formal arms control has an important role to play lack a clear and compelling logic for why arms control is durable and achievable among highly interdependent states with unequal power, mixed interests, and dissimilar values. Past attempts find a new basis for U.S.-China security cooperation—e.g., by using voluntary measures or by relying on the economic interdependence of the two states—have proved insufficient. The second half of this paper suggests the basic elements of a cooperative security logic that could be a more appropriate and effective basis for cooperation. Instead of narrowly defining the objective of arms control as increasing deterrence stability at lower cost and risk, this logic aims more broadly to prevent threats from developing, provide reassurance, and promote consensual political order among states. Rather than trying primarily to set equal technical limitations on military capabilities, dialogue and negotiations should seek to ensure that whatever capabilities states have, including asymmetrical and dual-use ones, are used for mutually acceptable purposes and according to equitable behavioral rules. Issues related to transparency, verification, and compliance management would also be handled in ways that promote cooperation rather than competition. The paper concludes by examining how U.S.-Chinese cooperation in space, on nuclear weapons issues (including the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty), and on missile defense all stand to benefit from reliance on this new logic.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Bilateral Relations, Deterrence, and Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5271. Iranian Attitudes on Nuclear Negotiations
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- This survey is one in a series of surveys related to Iran that CISSM has conducted since 2013.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Nuclear Power, Negotiation, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
5272. The U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State: many questions, few answers
- Author:
- Yossi Alpher
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The U.S. commitment to "ultimately destroy" the Islamic State implies an extended military commitment in a highly complex Middle East environment. By looking at the strategic issues that emerge from this dynamic, we can hope better to understand impending developments. These issues centre on the motive behind the U.S. decision to enter the conflict; the U.S. relationship with its European and regional partners and, by contrast, with other major actors in the region like Iran, Syria, Turkey and Egypt; the options for the Islamic State’s response; and issues of U.S. strategy and grand strategy regarding the Islamic world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, Islamic State, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and United States of America
5273. A New Paradigm of International Relations
- Author:
- A. Orlov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- Today, we are watching how the present stage of world history is coming to an end amid great or even fundamental changes of the geopolitical picture of the world. The twenty-five-year-long partnership between Russia and the West (never easy and never straightforward), which began back in the last years of Soviet perestroika, has ended. It will be probably replaced with a new structure of international cooperation much more pragmatic and devoid of illusions and exaggerated expectations nurtured by Russia rather than the West. It is wrong to expect that when the situation in Ukraine has been stabilized (it will be stabilized sooner or later) the world (or at least the part which stretches from Vladivostok in the east to Vancouver in the west) will go back to its pre-crisis state. There is no way back. The old bridges were burned while new bridges have not yet been built. The paradigm of world development geared at the prospects of long-term partnership (which, for a long time, had looked the only option) was destroyed.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Politics, History, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
5274. Russia and East Asia in the Context of the Ukrainian Crisis: "No" to Sanctions, "yes" to a New World Order
- Author:
- V. Petrovsky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The system of international relations and the world order are being “tested by Ukraine,” the situation in which Russia’s relations with East Asia are not an exception but a confirmation of the process and an illustration of it. The U.S. Administration resolved to isolate Russia from the rest of the world urged the EU, the rest of the continent and also the East Asian and APR countries to introduce anti-Russian sanctions. In July 2014, at the height of the scandal around the Malaysian “Boeing” shot down over Eastern Ukraine, Peter Harrell, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counter Threat Finance and Sanctions, travelled far and wide across the region to persuade top officials and leaders of the business communities to side with the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, East Asia, and United States of America
5275. A Soldier’s Morality, Religion, and Our Professional Ethic: Does the Army’s Culture Facilitate Integration, Character Development, and Trust in the Profession?
- Author:
- Dr. Don M. Snider and Col. Alexander P. Shine
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The authors argue that an urgent leadership issue has arisen which is strongly, but not favorably, influencing our professional culture--a hostility toward religion and its correct expressions within the military. Setting aside the role of Chaplains as a separate issue, the focus here is on the role religion may play in the moral character of individual soldiers--especially leaders--and how their personal morality, faith-based or not, is to be integrated with their profession's ethic so they can serve in all cases "without reservation" as their oath requires.
- Topic:
- Religion, Political Theory, Military Affairs, and Ethics
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
5276. The Evolution of Los Zetas in Mexico and Central America: Sadism as an Instrument of Cartel Warfare
- Author:
- Dr. George W. Grayson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The United States has diplomatic relations with 194 independent nations. Of these, none is more important to America than Mexico in terms of trade, investment, tourism, natural resources, migration, energy, and security. In recent years, narco-violence has afflicted Mexico with more than 50,000 drug-related murders since 2007 and some 26,000 men, women, and children missing. President Enrique Peña Nieto has tried to divert national attention from the bloodshed through reforms in energy, education, anti-hunger, health-care, and other areas. Even though the death rate has declined since the chief executive took office on December 1, 2012, other crimes continue to plague his nation. Members of the business community report continual extortion demands; the national oil company PEMEX suffers widespread theft of oil, gas, explosives, and solvents (with which to prepare methamphetamines); hundreds of Central American migrants have shown up in mass graves; and the public identifies the police with corruption and villainy. Washington policymakers, who overwhelmingly concentrate on Asia and the Mideast, would be well-advised to focus on the acute dangers that lie principally below the Rio Grande, but whose deadly avatars are spilling into our nation.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Mexico and United States of America
5277. Augmenting Our Influence: Alliance Revitalization and Partner Development
- Author:
- John R. Deni
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- As the United States and its allies prepare to withdraw most of their military forces from Afghanistan and following the end of the war in Iraq, fundamental questions have arisen over the future of American Landpower. Among them are the role of allies and partners in terms of contributing to the safeguarding of shared global interests, the implications of the Pacific rebalancing for American alliances worldwide, and the role of Landpower in identifying, developing, and maintaining critical alliances, partnerships, and other relationships. To examine these and other questions, as well as to formulate potential solutions to the challenges facing U.S. national security in the coming decade, the U.S. Army War College gathered a panel of experts on alliances and partnerships for the 24th Annual Strategy Conference in Carlisle, PA. Conducted on April 9-11, 2013, the conference explored American Landpower implications associated with an evolving national security strategy. Chaired by the Strategic Studies Institute’s Dr. John R. Deni, the panel devoted to alliances and partnerships featured expert presentations based on the papers in this edited volume by Dr. Sean Kay, Dr. Carol Atkinson, and Dr. William Tow. Their analyses provided the U.S. Army and the U.S. Department of Defense with invaluable strategic assessments and insights.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, National Security, Military Affairs, and Global Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, and United States of America
5278. Creative Success and Network Embeddedness: Explaining Critical Recognition of Film Directors in Hollywood, 1900–2010
- Author:
- Mark Lutter
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes how social network structures affect career success in a project based labor market. The literature on team success has shown that teams perform well if they integrate both weak and strong ties simultaneously. Applying the literature to careers in the creative industries, the study suggests that creative artists are more likely to receive critical recognition if they build their careers in both familiar project networks and heterogeneous sets of creative conventions. It is argued that familiarity and diversity operate as complementary elements in the development of innovative ideas. While diversity is important to maximize the flow of new ideas, it needs to be embedded within trustworthy and familiar network structures in order to fully develop its creative potential. The suggested mechanism is tested by means of full career data of 55,097 film directors, covering 478,859 directing jobs in 330,142 film productions during the years 1900–2010. It is shown that familiarity and diversity explain a considerable part of a director’s critical success. Results from interaction effects show that diversity has greater effects on critical success if it is socially embedded within familiar social structures. The article contributes to the emerging understanding of the role of group processes and network structures in explaining individual career success.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, Markets, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
5279. The Return of Religion? The Paradox of Faith-Based Welfare Provision in a Secular Age
- Author:
- Josef Hien
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- For centuries, churches were the main institutional providers of welfare in Europe before the state took over this role in the late 19th century. The influence of modernization theory meant that modern welfare state theorists increasingly regarded religion and its impact on welfare as a relic from the distant past. It was anticipated that modern, differentiated, and industrialized societies would see the decline and inevitable disappearance of religious welfare provision along with religiosity. Surprisingly, however, at the beginning of the 21st century in many modern industrialized societies, religious institutions are increasingly becoming involved in welfare provision again. The religion blind classic welfare state literature offers no explanation for this phenomenon. This present paper argues that the resurgence of faith-based welfare providers is the reversal of a phenomenon that occurred in the late 19th century when modern states started to strip religious providers of their prerogatives in welfare provision. The result was the ascendance of the modern state and the demise of religion in the late 19th century. The return of welfare to religious providers can therefore be interpreted as the beginning of the demise of the modern state.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Religion, and Social Movement
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
5280. Journal of Public and International Affairs 2014
- Author:
- Daphne McCurdy, Chikara Onda, Aaron Aitken, Lucia Adriana Baltazar Vazquez, John Paul Bumpus, John Speed Meyers, Pierina Ana Sanchez, Yolaine Frossard de Saugy, Melanie Harris, Steve Moilanen, Stephen Pritchard, Nicolas Collin dit de Montesson, and Naomi Crowther
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- From pressing foreign policy issues such as territorial disputes in the South China Sea and homicide rates in Honduras to contentious domestic policy debates such as the rights of Mexican immigrants in the United States and the construction of the Keystone pipeline, the topics in this year’s journal are wide-ranging in both functional and geographic focus. However, they all share a strong commitment to seeking solutions to the world’s most serious challenges through sound policy.
- Topic:
- Crime, Government, Oil, Poverty, Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Foreign Aid, Immigration, Governance, Law, Cybersecurity, and Grand Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Iran, Canada, Philippines, Mexico, Honduras, United States of America, and South China Sea
5281. ¿Una estrategia coherente para una región en cambio? La política exterior de la administración Obama y la Primavera Árabe
- Author:
- Juan Tovar Ruiz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- La política exterior de la Administración Obama se vio claramente marcada por los procesos de cambios producidos en el Próximo Oriente como consecuencia de la denominada Primavera Árabe. A la discusión previa existente sobre la existencia o no de una doctrina Obama se ha añadido el debate sobre cual puede ser su estrategia hacia una región que se ha convertido en el principal campo de batalla de los grupos ideológicos de la política exterior estadounidense: realistas, neoconservadores y liberales intervencionistas. La necesidad de equilibrar los intereses estratégicos y de seguridad estadounidenses con la promoción de valores como la democracia y los derechos humanos parece haber dado paso a un regreso a una estrategia realista, de intervención limitada, fundamentada en intereses estratégicos clave y en soluciones diferenciadas para diferentes contextos. La situación actual en escenarios como Siria o Irak, con todo, marcan importantes incertidumbres que deberán ser afrontadas a corto plazo.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democracy, Arab Spring, Ideology, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and United States of America
5282. The US and Turkey in Search of Regional Strategy: Towards Asymptomatic Trajectories
- Author:
- Kostas Ifantis and Ionannis Galariotis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Security relations with the US have been critical for Turkey. Cold War strategic imperatives dictated typical bandwagoning policies, although disagreements and frictions were present at times. In the 2000s, a combination of domestic developments and rapidly changing regional security patterns has resulted in a more assertive Turkish regional security policy, which for many represents a departure from traditional Kemalist principles. This article attempts to assess the current course of Turkish regional security engagement and the extent to which relations between the USA and Turkey are subject to major change. The analytical context accounts for the impact of domestic, regional and global levels. The empirical focus is on Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian sectarian conflict and on the trajectory of the bilateral relations with Israel.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, United States of America, and Mediterranean
5283. España y Estados Unidos en un nuevo contexto estratégico
- Author:
- David García
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- La estrategia de seguridad nacional de 2013 establece una clara continuidad respecto a la estrategia de 2011 respecto al tratamiento de la alianza y las relaciones con EEUU, aspecto positivo que demuestra un acuerdo en una política de Estado fundamental para España. Sin embargo, tiende a ser más un documento de consenso político y declarativo/informativo, que una estrategia de seguridad con mayor calado y profundidad. En este sentido, el análisis y la construcción de la estrategia denota discutibles concepciones y percepciones sobre la estructura del sistema internacional y la conducta de las grandes potencias, que pueden crear narrativas, estrategias y políticas peligrosas en una situación de reducción de capacidades que pueden llevar a un dilema de seguridad. En este sentido, las alianzas y políticas estratégicas de España pueden moverse entre su reforzamiento (chain gangs) o su abandono (buckpassing), incluyendo planificaciones estratégicas más realistas. Una revisión del Convenio de Cooperación para la Defensa dentro del marco de profundización de la Declaración Conjunta de 2001 sería una opción estratégica de primer orden para la política de seguridad de España.
- Topic:
- Security, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, North America, and United States of America
5284. Aboriginal Self-Determination: A Comparative Study of New Zealand, Australia, and the United States of America
- Author:
- Katie Saulnier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
- Abstract:
- Aboriginal groups present with sub-par outcomes in key indicators of well-being across the board. Increased capacity for self-governance presents one possibility for improving these outcomes, but its implementation is complicated by historically acrimonious relationships with federal governments and the larger context of attempting to rectify the complex harms done by colonialism. The solution involves finding the right balance between creating spaces for self-governance and providing the necessary federal assistance where appropriate. This paper discusses the structure of and approaches to Aboriginal self-determination and selfgovernance in New Zealand, Australia, and the United States, with a view toward assessing which approaches could prove effective in Canada. It does so through a variety of lens and by examining impact assessments in a number of key areas.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Health, Infrastructure, Self Determination, Economy, History, Colonialism, and Indigenous
- Political Geography:
- Australia, New Zealand, and United States of America
5285. The US Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad
- Author:
- Jon Wolfsthal
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) convened an event to release its latest report “The Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad: US Strategic Nuclear Modernization Over the Next Thirty Years.” The report concludes that the United States will likely spend over $1 trillion during the next three decades to maintain its current nuclear arsenal and purchase their replacement systems. The necessary level of procurement spending, as a percentage of the defense budget, will peak at levels comparable to the Reagan-era build-up of nuclear forces. To date, few senior officials from the White House or Department of Defense or in the Congress have publicly acknowledged or laid out the full scale of these costs to the American public. This lack of public debate will likely lead to sticker shock as the full cost of these programs come due, leading to budget cuts and program delays. “The strategic and financial challenges facing our country are enormous,” said Jon Wolfsthal, CNS Deputy Director and former nuclear advisor to Vice President Joseph Biden. “Policy makers lack the basic information needed to make smart choices about our nuclear arsenal, putting both our deterrent and future reductions at risk.” The report cites particular concern over the pace of planned construction of strategic systems to replace systems that are set to retire starting in 2030. The United States plans, from 2024-29, to build five strategic submarines, 72 strategic bombers, and 240 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). This represents more delivery vehicles than the combined nuclear forces of China, the United Kingdom, and France. It is unclear that the industrial and management capabilities in the United States are capable of this production rate in times of budget constraint.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, Budget, and Military Spending
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5286. US and Russia Can End Use of Weapons-Usable Uranium for Medical Uses
- Author:
- Miles A. Pomper
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- A new report co-authored by CNS Senior Research Associate Miles Pomper recommends steps for the United States and Russia to cooperate in ending Russian use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in medical isotope production, an important step in keeping this nuclear weapons material from terrorists. Great progress has been achieved in recent years in minimizing civilian use of HEU as part of the international efforts to reduce the nuclear terrorism threat. In particular, the leading global suppliers of the molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) isotope, which is widely used in medical diagnostics, are taking steps to reduce and, in the medium time frame, completely eliminate the use of HEU in the production of medical isotopes. Major new steps towards phasing out HEU use in medical isotopes production could be announced at the Nuclear Security Summit that will take place in The Hague on March 24-25, 2014. The Russian nuclear industry has set for itself an ambitious goal of becoming one of the three top global suppliers of Mo-99, used in 80 per cent of the medical procedures involving isotopes particularly as a diagnostic tool. Growing Russian production could help stabilize the global Mo-99 market, which faced severe shortages on several occasions in 2005-2013. According to some estimates, in 2010 during a six month period medical facilities around the world were unable to perform diagnostic procedures for several million people due to the shortage of Mo-99; the shortfall was estimated at 7 million doses. However, until recently, Russia had been bucking global trends by planning to use HEU fuels and targets rather than safer low enriched uranium (LEU) for much of this production. The ‘Ending HEU Use in Medical Isotope Production: Options for Russian-US Cooperation’ report co-authored by the Moscow-based Center for Energy for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) analyses what can be done by Moscow and Washington to harmonize the Russian producers’ plans to win a share of the global market, while at the same time facilitating the Russian nuclear industry’s transition to new market requirements for producing Mo-99 without HEU.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, and Medicine
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America
5287. Mind the Gap: Regimes & Strengthening Radiological Security
- Author:
- Miles A. Pomper
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- According to a new paper from CNS Senior Research Associate Miles A. Pomper, inadequate liability and insurance regimes mean that users of high-risk radiological sources have insufficient incentive to protect those sources from terrorists or substitute less risky alternatives. Such sources are used in medicine, oil and gas exploration, and industry, among other fields, and can be used in “dirty bombs” or other forms of radiological terrorism. Since the 9/11 attacks, governments, including the United States, have taken it upon themselves to institute emergency measures to improve source security, often using public funds. However, these measures are less than optimal and are expected to take many more decades. Moreover, even the United States—the lead country in spending on these efforts—routinely sacrifices radiological security to other budget priorities. Pomper therefore recommends two potential options to improve liability and insurance regimes governing radiological sources in order to incentivize users to reduce the risk of radiological terrorism.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Budget, Radiological Weapons, and Medicine
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5288. Engaging with Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
- Author:
- Michael Woolcock
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The coherence and effectiveness of engagement with the world's 'fragile and conflict-affected states'—beyond ethical imperatives and geo-strategic considerations—turns on answers to two vexing questions. First, on what defensible basis is any given country, at any given historical moment, deemed to be (or not to be) 'fragile'? Second, if a defining characteristic of state fragility is low levels of capability to implement core responsibilities, how can international agencies best support domestic public organizations to acquire capability? The first issue may appear to be a methodological one (wherein more and better data would provide a firmer empirical foundation on which to base key decisions) but any determination, especially of marginal cases, must also be grounded in a correspondingly comprehensive theory of change. Similarly, the optimal response to the second issue may appear to be importing technical and rigorously verified ('best practice') solutions, but in fact it is more likely to require a qualitatively different strategy, one able to experiment with alternative design specifications and adapt in real time to changing contextual realities (thereby iterating towards customized 'best fit' solutions). To this end, an alternative approach to the theory, measurement and practice of engaging with fragile states is outlined, in the spirit of rising concerns across the development community that prevailing strategies have demonstrably reached the limits of their effectiveness.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Conflict, State, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
5289. Yemen's National Dialogue
- Author:
- Charles Schmitz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Facing popular protests, a secessionist movement in the south, a spiraling security crisis, and a deep fracturing of political factions, Yemen’s political elite acceded to the Gulf initiative in 2011, which established a caretaker transitional government. The agreement signed in Riyadh stipulated a two-year transitional period and created a National Dialogue Conference (NDC) as a forum to solve the country’s political problems. The results of the National Dialogue will form the basis for a new constitution, and Yemenis will then elect a new government to conclude the transitional period. The National Dialogue has concluded, but it is not clear whether it can really solve Yemen’s political problems. The two-year transitional period ended without a new constitution or elections—these will be held at some undetermined later date—and facts on the ground may be outpacing the deliberations of the political elite and their international backers. The government cannot prevent attacks on its oil pipelines or electrical grid; al-Qa`ida operates with almost impunity in the capital city Sana; the Houthi movement is expanding its area of control, recently taking the symbolically important towns of Huth in Amran and Dammaj in Sa`ada; and the south remains unsettled and far from accepting of any solutions proposed by the Sana elite. In February 2014 the committee created to “resolve” the issue of southern rebellion decided on a federal system of government composed of six regions. Yet most Yemenis do not know what federalism is, and what’s more, they don’t care. Deteriorating security and the rise of poverty have overwhelmed any interest most citizens might have in the details of the elite’s visions for the future of the country. Both Saudi Arabia and the United States, the most important foreign actors in Yemen and backers of the Gulf initiative, are focused on their own regional interests, sometimes to the detriment of Yemeni interests. The Saudis want to maintain their influence on the Yemeni government, fight Iranian influence, and control threats from Yemeni soil spilling over into Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudis recently expelled from the Kingdom hundreds of thousands of Yemeni workers, exacerbating Yemen’s desperate economic situation. The United States is focused on al-Qa`ida and Iran. The American drone campaign continues to wreak havoc, recently killing members of a wedding party in spite of President Obama’s new procedures to bring the targeted assassinations under the color of law, and the United States seems unable to relinquish its misperception that the Houthis in Sa`ada constitute a new Hezbollah. With such deep divisions in Yemen’s political body and in the competing regional agendas of Yemen’s foreign backers, Yemen’s prospects for a peaceful political settlement that will allow the country to stabilize and grow seem dim.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
5290. The (in)securisation by military technologies and the significance of violence : a case-study of the NATO military intervention in Libya (2011) | L’(in)sécurisation par les technologies militaires et la mise en sens de la violence: Le cas de l’intervention militaire de l’OTAN au-dessus de la Libye (2011)
- Author:
- Julien Pomarède
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Institution:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Abstract:
- By applying an international political sociology to NATO’s military intervention over Libya, this paper proposes an analysis of securitization processes developed into particular military technologies and representations of the use of violence in the context of international military interventions. Our aim is to study securitization logics contained in the use of highly sophisticated military technologies allowing to create a particular sense of (in)security fixed on the referential of the use of violence. We try to demonstrate the different ways through which the use of violence is represented as more or less securing by an analysis of a practical and discursive construction of an opposition between NATO’s instrumental-rational use of violence and Gaddafi’s one, portrayed as irrational and indiscriminate.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Libya, North Africa, and United States of America
5291. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Fall 2014
- Author:
- David Zvijac, Jason J. Morrissette, Douglas A. Borer, and Brian J. Ellison
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- In Marine Corps Vision & Strategy 2025, the 34th Commandant of the Marine Corps, General James T. Conway, laid out his vision of the Corps: “Marines must be agile, capable of transitioning seamlessly between fighting, training, advising, and assisting—or performing all of these tasks simultaneously. . . . Future operational environments will place a premium on agile expeditionary forces, able to act with unprecedented speed and versatility in austere conditions against a wide range of adversaries.” Just as the nature of warfare has changed over time, so too has our need to assess future operations and the ever-evolving environment in which our forces must act.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Water, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, South Asia, Korea, and United States of America
5292. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Spring 2014
- Author:
- Vernie Liebl, Alessandra Pinna, Aylin Ünver Noi, and Gayane Novikova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- U.S. armed forces must react and interact in a variety of situations, proving the importance of not just experience but also of an educational foundation that supports today’s military, one confronting tighter budgets and a constricted force structure, utilizing greater technology, and facing increased ambiguity and international crises. Professional military education means more than fostering leadership in our best and brightest. Our goal at Marine Corps University is to serve as a dynamic institution capable of educating joint and combined forces to handle the complex realities of the twenty-first century. Several of these current realities, as well as past incidents that influence the present, are the focus of this issue of the Marine Corps University Journal. United States has extended the American idea of democracy so far afield that its reach can be felt across the globe. ere are those who argue that we have stretched our resources and our forces beyond their limits, while others claim that our interactions with other cultures enrich both domestic and foreign populations. As evidenced by situations such as the Bizerte Incident in Tunisia and the Arab Spring, we still have much to learn from our global interactions today and in the not-so-distant past.
- Topic:
- Democratization, History, Military Affairs, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America
5293. Cross-cultural Encounters Of Managers In International Ngos: Results of Qualitative Research Project in Ukraine
- Author:
- Svitlana Buko
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
- Institution:
- Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
- Abstract:
- The article focuses on cross-cultural communication (drivers and barriers) of Ukrainian and American managers within international Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) in Ukraine. The goal of this qualitative research is to analyze communication dynamics of foreign managers-expatriates with local Ukrainian staff members, identify how culture impacts communication and compare US and Ukrainian cultural dimensions using G. Hoftede’s cultural dimension, F. Trompenaars business culture analysis models and cultural adjustment theory. The data in the article are based on the qualitative research study that was conducted in Ukraine and US, where 22 managers (locals and expats) were interviewed and shared case studies of cross-cultural encounters of managers in international NGOs in Ukraine. Research results helped identify barriers and drivers of communication and specify peculiarities of managerial communication values within INGOs.
- Topic:
- Communications, Culture, Research, and NGOs
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
5294. 2013-14 IGCC White Paper on Defense Transparency in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Tai Ming Cheung and Jordan Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- The 2013‒2014 Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index (DTI) measures transparency in de-fense activities in one of the most strategically important but politically volatile regions of the world. In the fifth year of this Index, its central goal remains to provide a rigorous, quantitative-based measurement of this essential but contested concept. Improving trust, confidence, and credibility in Northeast Asia’s security environment is becoming ever more pressing as arms competition intensifies among major regional powers and security interests become increasingly entangled. In this climate of growing security anxiety, the demand for timely and relevant defense information has grown, not only from governments and their mil-itaries but also from many other quarters, including the general public, media, and business com-munity. But while the case has been made by policy and academic experts that increased transpar-ency could potentially meet some of these demands and strengthen mutual trust between states, defense transparency lacks agreed-upon definitions and standardized means of measurement. The Institute on Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) has sought to address this analytical gap to provide a general framework for defining and measuring defense transparency, specifically for the six states covered in the DTI: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Japan, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Republic of Korea (ROK), the Russian Federation (Russia), and the United States.The brief begins by presenting the methodology used by IGCC to initially develop the DTI, then highlights changes made to improve the process in this latest edition. This is followed by the final scores achieved by states in the 2013–2014 DTI, which are compared with previous years. The Analysis section examines what brought about scoring changes for these states from the previous editions of the index. Finally, the Country Assessments and Recommendations section summarizes trends for each of the six countries. By taking a comprehensive approach to defense transparency and continuing to refine our meth-odology, we want to ensure that the DTI will remain an informative, relevant and adaptive tool for measuring defense transparency going forward, enabling comparison both across states and over time.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Budget, Cybersecurity, Media, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Korea, and United States of America
5295. Plausible Deniability: Proxy Wars in Africa
- Author:
- Jennifer L. De Maio
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- In the decades since independence, proxy wars have frequently threatened regional security in Africa. Many interstate and intrastate wars on the continent have become increasingly complicated by the involvement of opposing nation states using third parties as surrogates for fighting each other directly. As civil wars threaten to spill across borders and destabilize entire regions, the nature and extent of states using these wars as proxies for their own agendas needs to be studied more systematically. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union relied on proxy wars as a means of engaging the enemy indirectly and advancing their foreign policy agendas, while leaving minimal visible blood on their hands. These proxy wars between the superpowers played out across Africa, from the Horn to Angola to Mozambique. In the aftermath of the Cold War, the superpower competition for regional supremacy has been replaced by new proxy wars and trans-border alliances between African states and local armed groups. As Joseph argues, the recourse to proxy wars reflects the challenges faced by the African state and its inability to institutionalize democratic structures. But the problem is much deeper. Engaging in proxy wars is a critical strategy for state-building, and develops from calculations by state leaders to advance their policy agendas. Threatened regimes wishing to maintain their hold on power may allow and enable civil tensions to spill across borders and destabilize neighboring countries. This approach can be used as a means to consolidate power domestically and spread influence internationally. A civil war thereby becomes a proxy war between states, with the advantage that governments can distance themselves from atrocities committed by their proxies by either attributing blame to rebel factions or by just claiming that they are in fact not sponsoring any group. This essay proposes that governments have an incentive to allow civil wars to spread across borders in order to engage in proxy battles with neighboring states. Governments can utilize proxy wars to strengthen their hold on the domestic state apparatus and to gain regional superiority. This strategy can include using militarily weak countries as proxies in order to assert their regional dominance and broadcast domestic power. Proxy wars can then advance domestic and foreign policy agendas while allowing states to avoid engaging in costly and bloody direct combat. The use of proxy war as a tool of statecraft is thus calculated and controlled...
- Topic:
- Security, War, Proxy War, and Statecraft
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Soviet Union, and United States of America
5296. A Temporary Marriage of Convenience: Transnational Jihadists in Proxy Warfare
- Author:
- Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Cecily G. Brewer of the U.S. Department of State defines proxy wars as “inter-state conflicts fought via intra-state means.” She notes that traditionally in such conflicts, “the intra-state symptoms of the conflict draw attention,” while the inter-state driver — the support an actor receives from outside the country — “is ignored.” A prototypical example, albeit one where outside support given to the non-state actors at the heart of the conflict has received copious attention, is the Afghan-Soviet war. Not only did the Afghan mujahedin force the powerful Soviet Union to withdraw from Afghanistan following a costly and humiliating defeat, but the conflict also gave birth to the preeminent transnational jihadist group, al-Qaeda. This article examines how proxy warfare functions in the context of jihadist groups that share al-Qaeda’s transnational outlook, arguing that they create more difficulties for the state attempting to exploit them than do traditional proxies. Pakistan’s policies, and the resulting costs inflicted upon the Pakistani state, provide a powerful case study in the dangers involved in relying on jihadist proxies. The Afghan-Soviet war was a key event in shaping Pakistan’s self-destructive use of proxies. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 quickly became notorious throughout the Muslim world. The invasion triggered stiff resistance from Afghan mujahedin, and encouraged both state and non-state actors to support the various mujahedin factions. In the Cold War context, the United States perceived the Soviet invasion as an opportunity to give the U.S.S.R. its own Vietnam War, according to President Carter’s national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski.[2] The mujahedin thus became a proxy of the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, each with their own somewhat divergent interests in supporting these factions. The largest U.S. covert aid program since Vietnam, with American support (totaling around $3 billion) matched dollar for dollar by Saudi Arabia, flowed to the anti-Soviet fighters. American and Saudi aid was routed through Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI).
- Topic:
- Security, Cold War, Conflict, Transnational Actors, Jihad, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Soviet Union, and United States of America
5297. When Proxies Fail, Force Must Prevail U.S.-Iran Relations
- Author:
- Jonathan Ruhe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- For decades, the United States and Iran have pursued fundamentally incompatible strategic objectives. Yet despite having expansive goals and minimal mutual interests, each side has recognized that direct confrontation would jeopardize its ultimate goal. Thus competition between the two countries often has taken less decisive, but also less risky, forms of behavior, namely: diplomacy, sanctions, and the use of proxy forces. Given the stakes involved, however, relying entirely on such measures to convey the seriousness of one’s intentions is insufficient. Indeed, the United States has been most successful influencing Iranian policy when it has demonstrated its own willingness to use force or supported actors using military force directly against Iran – and conversely, least successful when it has failed to do so. The two countries have long held mutually exclusive aims. The United States wants to remain predominant in the Middle East to ensure the free flow of natural resources and the security of its allies, even as it withdraws troops after more than a decade of war and faces an uncertain fiscal future. The Iranian regime pursues nuclear weapons capability to protect against its perceived danger from a U.S.-supported overthrow, provide an umbrella under which it can project unmatchable power against its neighbors, and validate its continuing right to rule, among other goals. Both objectives are highly ambitious and in direct conflict with each other. Therefore the lethargy of peace suits both rivals well, as neither side feels it can afford an overt rupture. For the United States, direct conflict would critically endanger its efforts to maintain regional stability with a receding regional footprint. For Iran, it would seriously delay its approach to a nuclear weapons capability. There is little middle ground for diplomacy to secure, given the two countries’ ultimately irreconcilable goals.
- Topic:
- Security, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
5298. Buying Trouble? The Impact of Foreign Assistance on Conflict in Direct and Indirect Rivalry Situations
- Author:
- Peter Rudloff and James M. Scott
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- States provide foreign assistance for many reasons, including their achievement of strategic goals. Previous research suggests that rivalries exert a meaningful impact on foreign aid allocations, not only in direct rivalry situations (i.e., rivals are less like to receive aid), but also in indirect rivalry situations (i.e., potential recipients located near rivals or with rivalries in common with the donor are more likely to receive aid). What happens as a consequence of such strategic aid allocations? In this paper, we examine the effect of foreign aid on conflict within direct and indirect rivalry situations. Specifically, we identify and develop two contending arguments about the likely consequences of foreign aid and conflict in indirect rivalry situations. To test these arguments, we examine foreign assistance by the United States and the conflict history of recipient states from 1962 to 2000. Our results indicate that when foreign aid recipients and donors are rivals with a third state, increased foreign aid to the recipient leads to increased conflict between the recipient and the third-party rival
- Topic:
- Conflict, Rivalry, and Foreign Assistance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
5299. The Geopolitical Origins of Turkish-American Relations: Revisiting the Cold War Years
- Author:
- Ayşe Ömür Atmaca
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Critical geopolitics provides ways of looking at the world and questioning the role of geopolitics in foreign policymaking processes, as opposed to accepting them as objective and natural. From this theoretical perspective, this article aims to apply critical geopolitics to the case of Turkish-American relations with respect to how the United States (US) viewed Turkey’s geography and how the Turkey-US alliance has been shaped by the foreign and security policies of the latter. The article argues that the alliance was a product of the US’ Cold War geopolitical discourse, wherein the US considered Turkey to be a strategic ally against Soviet expansion. Thereafter, the declaration of the Truman Doctrine on March 12, 1947, led to increased US military ties with Turkey and became the basis for Turkey’s inclusion in NATO in 1952. As a consequence, Turkey began to be defined as the anchor of NATO’s strategic southern flank and a barrier against the communist threat in the Middle East and the Mediterranean throughout the Cold War. Turkey has also been a major recipient of American military equipment and was a supplier of important military facilities for monitoring the Soviet Union. The paper also argues that while Turkey generally fits within the US’ geopolitical designs and that these two countries cooperated on numerous efforts during the Cold War, the Cyprus problem in that period revealed the limits of US geopolitical discourse.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and United States of America
5300. Geneva Deal: Beginning of a New Era between Iran-Us Relations
- Author:
- Muhammad Saleem Mazhar and Naheed S. Goraya
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- In the present era, the Iran-US relations carry greater significance in the world politics. The diplomatic relations between both countries have remained suspended since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. But now after three decades when Iran has elected its new President, a shift has been observed in Iranian policies towards West and both sides are willing to melt the ice through an interim deal in Geneva. Though this deal has its positive aspects yet the prospects and fears along with its pros and cons in the days to come cannot be brushed aside. This paper is an attempt to analyze how this agreement will have its impact on the Middle Eastern region in reshaping the balance of power. The study will also discuss how Iran will have to face the harsh screening safeguards along with the introduction of Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, Imperialism, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Hezbollah, and World War II
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, United States of America, and North America