Search

Begin New Search Political Geography South America

871. Financial Regulation and Supervision in Emerging Markets. The Experience of Latin America since the Tequila Crisis

Author:
Barbara Stallings and Rogerio Studart
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper deals with changes in the regulation and supervision of the Latin American financial sector in the aftermath of the 'Tequila Crisis' of 1994–95. While it finds that both have improved, regulation and supervision cannot resolve all problems; good macroeconomic policy and performance are essential complements. This is especially true because of the procyclical nature of financial activity. The paper presents both regional data for Latin America, contrasting it with other emerging markets, and four country case studies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico). The latter show how individual country characteristics and experiences affect the operation of the financial systems. We close with some policy recommendations.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

872. Non-Financial Corporate Risk Management and Exchange Rate Volatility in Latin America

Author:
Graciela Moguillansky
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This article studies the currency risk management of multinational companies with investments in Latin American countries. The analysis is centred on episodes of currency or financial shocks, searching into the behaviour of the financial management of a firm expecting a significant devaluation. This allowed us to explore the interaction and transmission mechanisms between the microeconomic behaviour and the macroeconomic impact on the foreign exchange market. The analysis was carried out interviewing financial managers of multinational companies from different sectors with headquarters in the United Kingdom and Spain, by reviewing literature on business and currency risk management, and by analysing some surveys on financial risk management in developed countries.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, South America, Latin America, and Spain

873. How Optimal are the Extremes? Latin American Exchange Rate Policies During the Asian Crisis

Author:
Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Guillermo Larraín
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared to Argentina and Mexico. This is linked apparently to a loss in the band's credibility, associated to policy mismanagement and an over-appreciation in the biennium before the crisis. Optimal exchange rate regimes vary across time and the conjuncture. Exit strategies are part of the election of the optimal system, including a flexible policy package rather than a single rigid policy tool.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

874. Colombia: Prospects for Peace with the ELN

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Alvaro Uribe was inaugurated President of Colombia on 7 August 2002 with a strong electoral mandate to fulfil his pledge to enhance the state's authority and guarantee security. In his inaugural address, Uribe promised to search for a negotiated solution to the long-standing armed confrontation with both insurgent groups, the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as well as with the paramilitary United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC). However, in stark contrast to his predecessor, Andrés Pastrana, he conditioned new negotiations on a ceasefire and complete suspension of hostilities.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

875. The 10 March 2002 Parliamentary Elections in Colombia

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 10 March 2002, little more than two weeks after the end of the peace process with the insurgent Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC), Colombians elected a new House of Representatives and Senate. Despite heightened apprehension among the electorate and the government about violent interference by the guerrilla and paramilitary organisations, the polls took place in an atmosphere of relative calm and good order. In part this was due to the large-scale deployment of military and police forces across the country to guarantee voter security.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

876. The Stakes in the Presidential Election in Colombia

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This presidential election (first round on 26 May 2002; second round, if needed, on 16 June) will be crucial for the future of Colombia's democracy and its struggle against insurgents and paramilitaries, drugs and widespread poverty. Social and economic distress is now widespread. Public frustration with the ill-fated peace process of the Pastrana Administration over the past three years, its definitive rupture on 20 February 2002, and increased attacks by the main rebel group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia- Ejército del Pueblo (FARC) on civilians and infrastructure since mid-January have made “war/peace” and “violence” the key vote- determining issues. The failure to negotiate a solution to the longstanding civil war over the past three years has polarised the electorate.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

877. Colombia's Elusive Quest for Peace

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In February 2002, negotiations to end the most dangerous confrontation of Colombia's decades of civil war collapsed. Nearly four years earlier, the newly-inaugurated President Andrés Pastrana had opened talks with the country's major remaining rebel groups, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC) and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), with great enthusiasm and hope. But the fighting never ended while the talks sputtered on, and the country now appears headed for a new round of violence in its cities and against its infrastructure. The international community is concerned about the implications not only for Colombia's people and its democratic institutions, but also wider regional stability.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

878. Global Economic Prospects

Author:
Michael Mussa
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

879. Is Brazil Next?

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This policy brief examines whether the pessimism that recently gripped the financial markets about Brazil's economic prospects is justified, and whether the big IMF program in support of Brazil announced on August 8, 2002, is likely to succeed in turning the tide. It concludes that present policies would be adequate to secure a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio given return of the exchange rate to a less undervalued level and a level of interest rates that is normal by past Brazilian standards though still high by world standards, though not under the recent conditions of a severely undervalued real and astronomical interest rates. It also concludes that the strongly improving trend recently evident in Brazilian trade promises a progressive reduction in external vulnerability, though this again could be jeopardized by the maintenance of sky-high interest rates. It then argues that, despite the mixed records of the two principal opposition candidates for the presidency, neither would be likely to choose a policy of deliberately reneging on Brazil's debts. That being so, the recent market turbulence has to be interpreted as a panic in which even those convinced that Brazil's fundamentals are sound did not dare to speculate in favor of restoration of normality. Such situations are exactly those where the IMF can play a useful role in breaking a panic, and hence the new loan much improves the chances of Brazil avoiding the implosion that would be likely to follow a debt restructuring.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

880. Toward A Sustainable FTAA: Does Latin America Meet The Necessary Financial Preconditions?

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper focuses on identifying preconditions that will ensure the sustainability of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). It argues that the macro, micro, and political conditions advanced in the literature to measure a country's ability to compete internationally, while necessary, are not sufficient to ensure the success and permanence of a free trade agreement. Instead, two additional financial conditions are needed. The first is that each partner in the free trade area needs to have sustainable public debts as determined by the achievement of credible and sustainable structural fiscal balances. The second is that exchange rate regimes across trading partners should be compatible in the sense that adverse shocks in one country do not generate a policy dilemma in other partners between abandoning their exchange rate system or the free trade area.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean