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61. Untrustworthy Authorities and Complicit Bankers: Unraveling Monetary Distrust in Argentina

Author:
Guadalupe Moreno
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Money, capitalist market societies’ paramount contract, relies on the belief in its enduring value. However, we still know surprisingly little about the social foundations that sustain that belief. How is our collective trust in the enduring value of money socially built, and what happens if people lose such trust? What if a society convinces itself that policymakers cannot guarantee that the value of money will persist over time? In this paper, I use Argentina as a monetary laboratory to study how almost eighty uninterrupted years of high inflation and successive currency crises led to a social trauma that crystalized in the emergence of a distrust narrative: a strong popular belief that neither the state nor the local financial system will be able to preserve the value of the national currency or the worth of savings over time. By analyzing the production and reproduction of this narrative and its long-lasting effects on the Argentine economy, I show how rooted distrust in a currency fosters a myriad of practices aimed at protecting savings, which impose severe limits on monetary governance. I emphasize that when state authorities lose control of collective expectations and negative monetary imaginaries take off, a vicious cycle unfolds in which instability, inflation, and devaluation reinforce each other.
Topic:
Civil Society, Financial Crisis, Governance, Central Bank, Money, and Trust
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

62. Uncertainty in Caracas: What Awaits Venezuela's Maduro in his Third Term?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term. The opposition condemned this event as a "coup," accusing Maduro of election fraud in connection with the presidential elections held on July 28, 2024. In response, the government organized a rally in support of Maduro in the capital. Meanwhile, the opposition staged a protest led by Maria Corina Machado, who made her first public appearance since August 2024.
Topic:
Economics, Elections, Protests, Organized Crime, Social Unrest, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

63. ‘Brazil is a Christian and Conservative Country with Family as its Foundation’: The Role of Defender of the Faith in Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Mónica Salomón and Luis Gustavo de Araújo Zimmer
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
: Foreign policy analysts have used role theory for decades. Several recent studies have resorted to it to describe and explain Brazilian foreign policy. By complementing current efforts that seek to account for the restructuring of Brazil’s international identity undertaken by the Bolsonaro government, this article focuses on a role relatively neglected by literature, i.e., the one Holsti called ‘defender of the faith.’ In the case of Bolsonaro’s foreign policy, the faith to be defended is that of ‘Judeo-Christian civilisation’ values in its most conservative interpretation. After identifying this role in statements by official representatives of Brazilian foreign policy, we examine both its primary internal sources (the political actors identified with religious-conservative agendas in the National Congress) and its external sources (the ‘conservative transnational’ of governments close to Bolsonaro’s), to then illustrate its performance through two sets of initiatives representing drastic changes in Brazilian diplomatic positions: the support to Israel in the voting of UN’s resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the shift from progressive to conservative positions in discussions on gender rights in multilateral venues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Gender, Role Theory, and Ultraconservatism
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

64. The Consolidation of Liberal Democracy in Brazil: Encountering Global, Regional, and Local Representations

Author:
Daniela Vieria Secches
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The globally expanded international society established a standard of statehood as central criteria for its membership. The end of the Cold War witnessed an ascendant, albeit contested, liberal democracy as a preferred regime in global imaginaries. Within this context, the re-democratization processes experienced in Latin America amid profound international systemic reorientations implied the renegotiation of regional and local social imaginaries, as, for example, in the Brazilian case. In this article, we seek to discuss Brazil’s selective and creative adaptation in the space of overlaps between global, regional, and local social imaginaries about the government regime since the 1990s. Through a theoretical-empirical approach based on the discussion about the construction of shared understandings between international and domestic social spaces, we opted for a pragmatic theoretical foundation with the support of the English School of International Relations, critical philosophy, and the sociology of Bourdieu to study the Brazilian case. By focusing on the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government, it is proposed to qualitatively analyse documents from the period that problematize the country’s external insertion based on the interaction with the global and the regional social imaginaries about liberal democracy, with the support of a bibliographical review grounded on specialized secondary sources
Topic:
Democracy, Social Imaginary, Domestic Politics, and International Society
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and South America

65. Causal Explanation in Brazilian International Relations

Author:
Enzo Lenine
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
How do Brazilian IR scholars tailor causal explanations in their research? Searching for causes has become paramount to the scientific endeavour in the social sciences, and in recent years the lexicon of causality has come under scrutiny, with many scholars revising the standard Humean and covering law approaches to cause. Far from being consensual, current philosophical and meta-theoretical debates in IR reveal a rather kaleidoscopical picture of causation. However, Brazilian IR scholars seem to remain unfamiliar about what it means to advance causal claims. In this paper, I have a twofold goal: to advance the causal talk by rehearsing recent meta-theoretical debates on causality; and to examine the ways Brazilian IR scholars in the subfield of Brazilian foreign policy analysis (BFPA) tailor causal explanations. To achieve the latter, I perform a cartography of the articles published in five Brazilian top-tier journals in the discipline – Brazilian Political Science Review, Dados, Contexto Internacional, Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais and Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional – from 2018 through 2022. I conclude that BFPA research is founded primarily in non-Humean understandings of causality, but Brazilian scholars might benefit from further awareness on the various meanings of causal explanation.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Relations Theory, and Causality
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

66. The Crises and Agony of International Development Cooperation: Consequences for Brazilian Foreign Policy

Author:
Pietro Carlos De Souza Rodrigues and Patricia Andrade de Oliveira Silva
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
At the beginning of this century, International Development Cooperation (IDC) began to occupy a central position in Brazil’s international status. Political and social transformations created conditions for Brazil to begin acting as a relevant protagonist in international projects, especially in developing nations, through South-South Cooperation (SSC). However, a succession of crises after 2011 and the emergence of ideas opposed to cooperation during the Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022) altered the conditions that sustained IDC as part of Brazilian foreign policy. In this article, we will identify the political and economic conditions that ensured (1) the structuring and (2) the growth of Brazilian cooperation up until 2011, and we will argue that the loss of these conditions resulted in IDC’s (3) decline, leading to (4) its agony beginning in 2019. Finally, we will evaluate several consequences of the cooperation crisis based on an evaluation of Brazilian foreign policy in the global health agenda, and its commercial relationship with African nations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, Global South, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

67. Hidden on the Stage: Racism and Brazilian Foreign Policy in the FESMAN ’66

Author:
João Montenegro Pires
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs organized the country’s contributions in the World Festival of Black Arts (FESMAN, Festival Mundial das Artes Negras) in Senegal in 1966 so as to demonstrate the exceptionality of racial relations in Brazil, expressed under the label of ‘racial democracy.’ The importance attributed to reaffirming Brazilian exceptionality was related to a strategic selectivity of the State aimed at privileging the continuous reconstitution of racism, intrinsically necessary to the reproduction of capital in general and, in particular, in the Brazilian social formation. The case illustrates how racial democracy represented a discursive reference that allowed the State to simultaneously organize the power block and disorganize the opposition from the dominated classes. The Brazilian racial fantasy taken to FESMAN covered up material inequality, made it challenging to identify Afro-Brazilians as a group, and hindered the formation of transnational ties with Pan-Africanism. The current article intends to enrich theoretical reflection on the reasons and ways racism affects the content of Brazilian foreign policy
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Pan-Africanism, Marxism, and State Theory
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

68. Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy in Laerte Coutinho’s Cartoons

Author:
Gelson Fonseca Júnior and Cristine Koehler Zanella
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This article examines former President Jair Bolsonaro’s foreign policy through Laerte Coutinho’s cartoons, published in the Folha de São Paulo newspaper, contextualised within Brazilian opening speeches at the UN General Assembly’s Annual Debate from 2019 to 2021. The work is epistemologically tied to the aesthetic turn in International Relations, broadly in line with a post-structuralist approach and uses iconographic analysis (including the tools of particular meanings and each cartoon’s situational context) and iconological interpretation methods (applying area concepts to explain foreign policy elements revealed through the sensitivity of the chosen works). Consequently, we identified that the cartoons effectively convey former President Bolsonaro’s approach to Brazilian foreign policy (BFP). It is an alternative epistemological and methodological approach to understanding international affairs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Jair Bolsonaro, Iconography, Cartoons, and Laerte Coutinho
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

69. Peeking Behind the Arches: An Examination of Diplomats’ Party Affiliations and Candidacies in Brazil

Author:
Vinicius Silva Santos
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This article explores the intricate dynamics between Brazilian diplomats and political parties within the realm of foreign policy. Our central research problem is to uncover how the interplay of the party system’s structure, the attributes and ideologies of political parties, and the aspirations of bureaucrats collectively influence the extent of diplomats’ involvement in formal party-political activities. Despite the growing attention to partisanship in Brazilian foreign policy debate, empirical research and methodological approaches to measure the concept are limited. The construct validity of the term is often confused with ideologization and politicization. Moreover, the involvement of Brazilian bureaucrats in party politics lacks comprehensive investigation. To address these gaps, this study examines the relationship between diplomats and political parties, uncovering its multifaceted dimensions and implications. Using a novel data source, we explore diplomats’ affiliations and candidacies, shedding light on interaction patterns during the Nova República period. We present a set of hypotheses investigating the association between diplomats’ party affiliations and their interactions with a) party ideologies (H1) and b) professional ambitions, delineated into i) intra-bureaucratic advantages (H2.1) and ii) political career aspirations (H2.2). By employing a mixed methods approach, incorporating thematic content analysis, descriptive statistics, and hypothesis testing, we aggregated evidence that substantiates hypotheses H1 and H2.2. However, in the case of H2.1, the findings proved inconclusive, prompting the need for further exploration into the topic.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Affiliation, Political Parties, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

70. ‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans

Author:
William Tobin
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The “maximum pressure” strategy employed from 2018 to 2022 against the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela did not serve US interests. Stringent oil sanctions imposed on Venezuela forced the retreat of Western oil firms from the country, principally benefitting adversaries. During the maximum pressure campaign, Venezuela’s oil production was rerouted to China at discounted prices, Iran supplied the diluent Venezuela required for oil production, and Russian investors became more critical amid a dearth on Western investment. A democratic transition remained elusive while repression and human rights violations continued. Venezuelans suffered, US adversaries expanded their influence, and Maduro remained. The current system of issuing specific licenses for Western oil producers to operate in Venezuela has yielded superior results. The benefits of this policy have been the following: Venezuelan oil exports have been diverted to friendly nations. Treasury has increased visibility on all oil-related transactions, decreasing the clandestine shipment of oil through shadow tanker fleets operated by the Chinese defense establishment, Iran, or PDVSA. Compensation to the regime is limited to taxes and royalties, which are required by Venezuelan law. The system has enabled the return or reemployment of qualified engineers and technicians to restore production from degraded oilfield infrastructure. The incoming US administration should prioritize inflicting more harm on the regime and its enablers than the Venezuelan people—or US interests. To do so, sanctions must be linked to clear objectives. An uncalibrated reapplication of maximum pressure would cede influence to China, Russia, and Iran, while doing little to loosen the regime’s grip on power. Instead, the existing system of specific licenses should be maintained and expanded. To punish Maduro, the administration should continue to target individuals who enable his illegitimate rule, adding to the 180 individuals already sanctioned by the Treasury. A targeted sanctions policy—not maximum pressure—is the only way to ensure that US actions to confront the Maduro regime impose their desired effect, and do not play into the hands of Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.
Topic:
Markets, Governance, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America

71. Brazil and the TPNW: Brazilian Interests and the Promotion of the Norm of Nuclear Prohibition

Author:
Luiza Elena Januário and Raquel Gontijo
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) formalises the norm of nuclear prohibition and is presented as a way to fill a gap regarding nuclear disarmament. Brazil played a leading role in the negotiation of this treaty, in line with its historical advocacy for disarmament. This article aims to analyse the foundations of the Brazilian position, guided by the following question: Can Brazil be considered a norm entrepreneur in favour of the prohibition of nuclear weapons? We hypothesise that Brazil has not truly solidified its role as a normative entrepreneur, exhibiting an ambiguous stance. We begin the article with a discussion of the contributions of norm constructivism. Next, we present some elements of the nuclear normative order. Finally, we analyse Brazil’s posture regarding TPNW and the norm of nuclear prohibition. We provide a historical reconstruction of Brazil’s position, situating it in the context of the norm cluster around nuclear weapons. Despite being vocal in advocating for disarmament, we conclude that Brazil has not fully established itself as a norm entrepreneur in promoting the norm of nuclear prohibition and presents an ambiguous stance due to its weak adherence to humanitarian motivation as the foundation of this norm.
Topic:
Disarmament, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), Nuclear Weapons, and Norms
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

72. Thomas Buergenthal and the Americas: A Comprehensive Contribution to Human Rights Protection

Author:
Kai Ambos
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:
While Thomas Buergenthal’s contribution to the field of human rights is certainly of global importance, it had a particular impact in the Americas, especially during the crucial initial phase of the Inter-American Human Rights System (IAHRS) with the Court as its core institution on which Buergenthal served as one of the first group of judges from 1979 to 1991. In a nutshell, Buergenthal’s contribution may be characterized as a comprehensive and decisive effort to the regional protection of human rights in a threefold way: prudent proactivity (A.), active promotion and optimization (B.), interaction and critical follow-up (C.). At the same time, Buergenthal pursued a strategic-progressive approach which offers valuable lessons for the protection of human rights going well beyond the Americas. Buergenthal’s contribution to human rights and to international law in general cannot be overestimated. His principled and at the same time prudent strategic approach will be greatly missed, especially in our challenging times where international law is under attack at various fronts.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Protection, and Thomas Buergenthal
Political Geography:
South America, Central America, and Americas

73. Protecting Colombia’s Most Vulnerable on the Road to “Total Peace”

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The new Colombian government has resolved to curb violence throughout rural areas where guerrillas and criminals hold sway. Its approach – dialogue and security reform – is admirable but risky. Any deal it strikes should seek to halt all the types of coercion the illicit groups employ.
Topic:
Conflict, Violence, Humanitarian Crisis, Vulnerability, and Gender
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

74. Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
What’s new? Once one of South America’s safest countries, Ecuador has in under a decade become its most violent, transforming into a hub of the drug trade to Europe. President Daniel Noboa’s iron-fist approach brought murder rates down at first, but violence has since soared again and crime continues unabated. Why does it matter? Ecuador’s authorities have declared the country to be in the grip of internal armed conflict, deploying soldiers to prisons and crime-hit communities. With no sign of violence falling, the government is set to double down on its tough approach, expanding cooperation with the U.S. military and private security contractors. What should be done? Crackdowns send a strong message to communities and criminals alike, but alone they tend not to overwhelm drug markets. Ecuador should do more to bring state services and licit economic opportunities to crime-hit neighbourhoods while quelling the corruption in ports, prisons and the state that helps generate the crime wave.
Topic:
Corruption, Violence, Organized Crime, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

75. The International Community in the Face of Intensified Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon During the Presidency of Jair Bolsonaro

Author:
Anna Sakson-Boulet
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Since the 1950s, when the deliberate settlement of the Amazon began, with a rapid influx of people, the Brazilian Amazon has faced various threats because of the demands associated with unsustainable economic development. During the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, environmental policies were marginalized, including through the legislative and regulatory dismantling of forest protection and the financial sapping of environmental institutions, which favored uncontrolled logging of equatorial forests. Therefore, deforestation increased yearly during the Bolsonaro administration, accompanied by increased greenhouse gas emissions. That is why the article aims to answer the question of what role the international community can play in protecting the Amazon rainforest, given its essential role in regulating the climate regionally and globally. The research methods include formal institutional analysis of relevant legal documents and decision analysis. The research and analysis of states’ individual and collective actions lead to the conclusion that economic pressure has been applied to influence the Bolsonaro administration.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Community, Jair Bolsonaro, and Deforestation
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

76. Media Vassalage: How Venezuela’s TeleSUR Acts as Russia’s and China’s Information- Laundering Front

Author:
Peter Benzoni
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
After a contested July presidential election in which Nicolás Maduro claimed victory with 51% of the vote—amid allegations of irregularities, limited oversight, and too few international observers—Venezuela was thrown into turmoil. The Carter Center, one of the few sanctioned observers, concluded the “election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.” To sustain its tenuous grip on power, Maduro’s administration must seek legitimacy from powerful allies such as Russia and China, even while attempting to mend ties with the Trump administration—an effort the latter had warmed to, then cooled on. Digital Forensic Research Lab fellow Iria Puyosa argues that authoritarian regimes across Latin America engage in cross-regional authoritarian collaboration in the form of “strategies to manipulate media and information spaces in order to undermine weak democracies … and help like-minded illiberal leaders seize and consolidate power”. For Venezuela, this manifests in its subordinate relationships with Russia and China, hinging on mutual legitimation—endorsing each other’s elections, governance practices, and policies—and strategic amplification, in which China and Russia promote their preferred narratives and national interests in Venezuela. Yet TeleSUR, Venezuela’s premier state media outlet, does not parrot Russian and Chinese lines under duress. Rather, its editorial line frequently aligns with those of these major powers due to overlapping ideological and political goals, including a shared desire for a multipolar world that counters Western influence and sanctions. This synergy allows Venezuela to secure vital international support and reinforce its domestic legitimacy, thus preserving the Maduro administration’s foothold in power. Venezuela, in turn, recreates this same patron-client relationship with its own regional allies—a dynamic we term “media vassalage.”
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Foreign Interference, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South America, and Venezuela

77. A hostile environment for peace mobilization: stigmatization and violence-justifying attitudes toward land rights advocates in Colombia

Author:
Diana Isabel Güiza-Gómez and Abby Córdova
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
Despite signing a peace accord in 2016, Colombia remains one of the most dangerous countries for social mobilization for peace, democracy, and equality. Between 2016 and 2023, 1,804 social leaders and 351 ex-combatants were assassinated. However, there has been no strong or sustained public outcry in response to this violence. This policy brief presents findings from a research project examining public attitudes toward lethal violence against social leaders and ex-combatants, with a focus on stigmatization against these actors and violence-justifying beliefs and attitudes. Drawing on data from an online survey conducted in late 2023—which is representative of the urban population with internet access—the study shows that violence-justifying attitudes toward both unarmed civilians—who did not engage in insurgent action—and former guerrilla combatants depends largely on their demands. Although public opinion tends to be more favorable toward social leaders than ex-combatants, citizen perceptions of both groups become more negative when these actors advocate for structural reforms, particularly land redistribution. This is because social mobilization for land redistribution is often associated with wartime grievances and thus perceived as a threat to the existing social order. These findings show that redistributive peace commitments are seen as potentially destabilizing, which in turn reinforces stigma against actors who advocate for redistribution. The study draws policy and practice recommendations to counteract such stigmatization, prevent violence, and support the implementation of the peace accord.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Transitional Justice, Violence, Stigmatization, Land Redistribution, Social Leaders, and Ex-Combatants
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

78. Alternative sentencing for female heads of household Law 2292 of 2023: A path toward gender justice in drug policy in Colombia

Author:
Mujeres Libres, International Centre for Human Rights and Drug Policy at the University of Essex, and Justice and Society-Dejusticia Center of Study on Law
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
Law 2292 of 2023 introduces an innovative sentencing alternative in Colombia for female heads of household, particularly those involved in drug-related crimes due to socioeconomic vulnerability. Instead of incarceration, eligible women can serve their sentences through unpaid community service. This approach recognizes caregiving roles and aligns with international human rights and drug policy guidelines. It addresses structural inequalities, aiming to prevent incarceration and facilitate reintegration. However, the law’s implementation faces several challenges: limited outreach, inconsistent eligibility criteria, and a lack of employment transition policies. Only a small fraction of eligible women have benefited so far. The document calls for reforms such as expunging criminal records, involving trial judges early in sentencing, and enabling active participation of women with lived experience in monitoring the law. This model aspires to shift from punitive to restorative justice, offering a blueprint for other nations grappling with the incarceration crisis among women.
Topic:
Women, Incarceration, Gender Justice, Drug Policy, and Alternative Sentencing
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

79. Friendshoring Copper: A New Pillar of the U.S.-Brazilian Economic Partnership

Author:
Gracelin Baskaran, Meredith Schwartz, and Bryan Harris
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Brazil holds some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals, including niobium, rare earths, graphite, manganese, bauxite, zinc, and lithium. However, the next frontier is copper, which now accounts for one-third of all mineral exploration investment in the country. Market enthusiasm for Brazil’s copper aligns with a global outlook in which copper demand is projected to nearly double by 2035. China has already secured a strong foothold in Brazil’s mining ecosystem through trade agreements, concessional financing, and infrastructure investments. By contrast, the United States remains in the early stages of building a minerals partnership with Brazil. Unlocking Brazil’s potential as a major copper producer—and securing U.S. access to this strategic metal—will require bilateral efforts. Brazil must strengthen geological mapping, expand infrastructure, and streamline its overly bureaucratic permitting system. On the U.S. side, deploying strategic financing, promoting vertical supply chain integration, and offering targeted tariff exemptions to advance national and economic security objectives will be critical to a successful partnership.
Topic:
Economics, Partnerships, Mining, Trade, Economic Security, Copper, and Friendshoring
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

80. Brazil Faces Mounting Pressure from the United States

Author:
Mateusz Piotrowski and Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
A political motivation was the main driver of the U.S. measures against Brazil and its authorities in July and August, as President Donald Trump tried to protect former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro from criminal charges of plotting a coup d’état. The Trump administration responded to Bolsonaro’s conviction on 11 September with new threats and additional sanctions. The Brazilian government will intensify its attempts at dialogue with the U.S. and seek support from other BRICS+ members, among other partners, and assistance for domestic industries affected by the punitive U.S. tariffs. The conflict with the United States will influence the course of the campaign ahead of next year’s general elections in Brazil.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Elections, Tariffs, Coup, Donald Trump, BRICS, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United States of America