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Begin New Search Political Geography South America Publication Year within 5 Years

21. The geopolitics of critical minerals and implications for Brazil and Canada

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Critical minerals have moved from the margins of industrial policy to the center of geopolitical competition. Cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earths now underpin three strategic imperatives: energy transition, digital infrastructure, and defense readiness. As rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, and as China leverages its dominance in processing, governments are reshaping supply chains through new alliances and targeted policy interventions. Brazil and Canada are central to this emerging mineral order. Both countries combine strong geological endowments with institutional capacity and diplomatic reach. Canada brings diversified extraction, growing midstream ambitions, and a coordinated policy approach reinforced during its 2025 G7 presidency. Brazil brings vast reserves and a more assertive industrial strategy aimed at moving up the value chain and reducing reliance on raw material exports. Yet both face the same structural challenge: transforming resource abundance into lasting economic and geopolitical influence. China’s dominance in processing reflects decades of accumulated technological capability, specialized expertise, and industrial learning—not simply subsidies. Closing this gap requires sustained investment in midstream capacity, particularly in refining, chemical conversion, and skilled labor. This article examines the forces shaping the global minerals landscape, including demand dynamics, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the evolving toolkit of geoeconomic competition. It analyzes how major powers are structuring alliances and how Brazil and Canada are positioning themselves within this shifting architecture—both individually and as potential partners. It concludes by outlining pathways for bilateral and regional cooperation, from building a Canada-Brazil midstream corridor and aligning standards to investing in human capital and strengthening regional infrastructure. The window for action is narrowing: as the institutional framework of mineral security takes shape, countries that move early and strategically will help define the rules of the system rather than adapt to them.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Lithium, Supply Chains, Rare earth elements (REEs), Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Canada, Brazil, and South America

22. Between Borders and States: Illegal Mining and Mercury Trafficking in the Amazon

Author:
Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
The Amazon is facing a growing set of pressures shaped by the convergence of accelerated environmental degradation, the expansion of illicit economies, and the fragility of state presence. In this context, illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking occupy a central position, both because of the environmental and public health impacts they produce and because of the way they connect the Amazon rainforest to transnational chains of trade, finance, and logistics. The dynamics sustaining this mechanism, however, do not originate in the forest. Mercury, an essential input for gold amalgamation, enters the region through opaque channels, while the extracted gold enters formal circuits of trade, often far from the territories where socio-environmental impacts are concentrated. Although Amazonian borders are often portrayed as obstacles to addressing these illicit activities, a closer analysis offers insights into the governmental actions and institutional limitations that shape the effectiveness and continuity of the Amazonian countries’ responses over time. It is from this perspective that this study is developed. The research examines how mercury trafficking and illegal gold mining are subject to different forms of state intervention — criminal, administrative, regulatory, and territorial — and how these interventions combine, overlap, or become misaligned when illicit dynamics cross national borders. The study is based on two case studies that illustrate, from different perspectives, the challenges of confronting illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking at the Amazonian border regions. The first focuses on the structure and operation of corporate networks involved in the mercury trade. The second examines the institutional architecture centered on the judiciary and state bodies tasked with protecting Indigenous peoples living in voluntary isolation threatened by illegal mining. Finally, the study presents conclusions aimed at strengthening institutional responses to illegal mining and the input trafficking in the Amazon, with emphasis on both coordination among national bodies and regional cooperation.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Governance, Trafficking, Mining, Indigenous, Illicit Financial Flows, Environmental Crime, and Mercury
Political Geography:
South America and Amazon

23. Gender Gaps in Academic Careers Evidence from Economics in Argentina

Author:
María Edo, Mariana Marchionni, Maria Florencia Pinto, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of gender disparities in academic economics in Argentina, and one of the few systematic studies on this topic in developing countries. Using newly collected and harmonized data from administrative records, university sources, web scraping, and ad-hoc surveys, we document women’s representation across stages of economics education and academic careers. We identify a leaky pipeline: a small gender gap at the undergraduate level widens in later stages, including research activity, faculty positions, publications, rankings, and leadership roles. Exploring potential drivers—such as academic performance, aspirations, exposure to role models, coauthorship, networking, funding, service—we find that women and men exhibit similar performance and comparable aspirations to pursue academic careers, yet their trajectories diverge. Although descriptive, our results suggest that gender disparities are unlikely to reflect differences in ability or preferences, and instead arise from a complex interaction of structural conditions and individual choices.
Topic:
Economics, Developing World, Inequality, Academia, and Gender
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

24. Labor market impacts of an internship program on people with disabilities

Author:
Inés Berniell, Lucila Berniell, Victoria Castillo, Belén Cañuelo, and Dolores de la Mata
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Programa Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabilities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered differencein-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also increases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills.
Topic:
Employment, Disability, Labor Market, and Internships
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

25. Asymmetric Adaptation to Heat and Energy Poverty

Author:
Adriana Camacho, Leonardo Gasparini, Luis Laguinge, Jorge Puig, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased electricity consumption.
Topic:
Electricity, Temperature, and Energy Poverty
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

26. Navigating Disagreement: Why Did the Brazilian President Visit the United States?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On May 6, 2026, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traveled to Washington at the invitation of U.S. President Donald Trump, seeking to strengthen bilateral relations. The visit coincided with mounting domestic pressures on the Brazilian president, following a series of successive setbacks—most notably a vote by more than two-thirds of Congress members in favor of legislation proposing to reduce sentences handed down against former President Bolsonaro, despite the presidential veto, and the Senate’s rejection of da Silva’s nominee for the Supreme Court—the first time in decades that a president’s choice for the Court had been turned down. Those reverses gave fresh momentum to Bolsonaro’s son as a leading presidential contender in the 2026 elections, even as da Silva’s capacity to advance his domestic agenda showed signs of strain. Complicating the picture further were a number of unresolved Brazilian-American tensions, set against a turbulent international and regional backdrop marked by escalating U.S.–Chinese competition in Latin America, a dynamic that rendered the visit a practical test of Brazil’s ability to balance its rapprochement with Washington against its commitments to Beijing within the BRICS framework. Against that backdrop, the analysis that follows traces the most significant points of friction in Brazilian-American relations in recent times, examines the motives behind the visit and its anticipated outcomes, and assesses the potential repercussions for the wider region.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United States of America

27. A Rightward Turn: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications of De la Espriella’s Rise in Colombia

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Colombia’s presidential runoff, held on June 21, 2026, resulted in a victory for right-wing candidate Abelardo De la Espriella, who won 49.66% of the vote against 48.70% for left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda, the candidate of the ruling “Historic Pact” coalition. The result came amid an unprecedented degree of political and security polarization and marks a shift to the right after four years of rule under Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president. Barred by the constitution from seeking re-election, Petro had thrown his support behind Cepeda as his successor. De la Espriella had also led the first round of the elections, taking 43.7% of the vote against Cepeda’s 40.9%, a result that set the stage for a direct contest between two political projects with sharply divergent visions on security and the economy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Domestic Policy, Right-Wing Politics, and Abelardo de la Espriella
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

28. Land Protection, Credit Access, and the Insurance Gap: The De Soto Trap

Author:
Werner Hernani-Limarino
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Bolivia’s Ley 1720 (April2026) allows small holders to voluntarily convert constitutionally protected pequeña propiedad—land that cannot be seized by creditors— into pledgeable mediana propriedad, explicitly targeting the credit-access channel that Hernando de Soto popularized. This paper develops a dynamic model showing that such convrersion creates a De Soto trap: the households most likely to convert are those most desperate for liquidity, not those best positioned to benefit from credit, and these households face the highest default probability. Without complementary insurance, land flows irreversibly from vulnerable smallholders to those with capital to purchase foreclosed properties. The model yields three results: (i) adverse selection into conversion emerges endogenously from the threshold conditions; (ii) aggregate smallholder land decays exponentially toward zero--a ratchet that cannot reverse without policy intervention; (iii) mandatory insurance as a conversion requirement filters out non-viable applicants, bounds land loss, and raises net welfare by a factor of four. Calibrated to Bolivian agricultural census data, the model predicts that under current policy, 120,000 households will lose their land within 25 years. The law addresses the channel (credit) for which the empirical evidence is weakest while removing a protection (implicit insurance through inalienability) whose value the risk literature suggests is large. Bolivia's reform inverts the optimal policy sequence.
Topic:
Insurance, Land Reform, Credit Constraints, Land Tenure, and Adverse Selection
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

29. Smog, not lights. Tracking Bolivia’s 2024–2026 recession from space

Author:
Werner Hernani-Limarino and Ahmed Eid
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Nighttime lights are the standard satellite proxy for economic activity, but they fail to detect recessions. On a 2020–2024 panel of nine Bolivian departments, VIIRS lights match the sign of PIB growth 78 percent of the time during expansions but only 39 percent during contractions —worse than coin-flip. The reason is structural: lit infrastructure is a stock that does not contract when activity falls, while fossil-fuel combustion is a flow that does. Tropospheric NO2, a neardirect measure of combustion retrieved daily by ESA’s Sentinel-5P satellite, maintains 72 percent sign concordance during contractions. We exploit this asymmetry to build a monthly recession indicator from TROPOMI NO2 over eleven Bolivian metropolitan areas, July 2018 through April 2026. The indicator peaked in June 2023; INE quarterly PIB first registered negative year-on-year growth five quarters later, in 2024Q4. Through November 2025 the satellite and INE agree to within one log point. A pre-break SARIMA trained through November 2025 projects a 2026 PIB contraction of approximately 2 percent, consistent with the IMF (−3.3 percent), World Bank (−3.2), and IIF (−4) forecasts, though the confidence interval is wide. The centered-12-month March 2026 endpoint becomes fully observable from actual data in October 2026, and we commit to a revisit at that date. The indicator is reproducible from free Copernicus data with a two-month publication lag..
Topic:
Infrastructure, Recession, Early Warning, Lighting, and Nitrogen Dioxide
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

30. Trumping Venezuela: Six Thoughts on the Political Significance of the US Military Intervention

Author:
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff and Patrick Keller
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The US attack on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, marks a new phase in the foreign and security policy of the Trump administration. In which ideas about a new world order is this policy rooted? What does it mean for Germany and Europe? We offer a six-point assessment.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Donald Trump, Hugo Chavez, and Security Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, South America, Germany, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America