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12. Impunity and the Permanent Coup in Peru
- Author:
- George Ygarza
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A massacre in a peripheral area of Peru highlights how the state has built a system that perpetuates impunity.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Impunity, Coup, and Massacre
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
13. When Weak States Win: A Supermodular Game-Theoretic Account of the 2006 Bolivia–Brazil Gas Crisis
- Author:
- Rodrigo Lyra and Manoel Galdino
- Publication Date:
- 07-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- What if third-party involvement and economic interdependence, often assumed to foster compromise, are precisely what entrench escalation in international negotiations? This paper introduces a supermodular game-theoretic framework to explain how indirect third-party alignment and domestic political constraints can produce strategic complementarities that lock actors into rigid bargaining positions. Drawing on an analytic narrative of the 2006 Bolivia–Brazil gas negotiations, we demonstrate how Venezuela’s political and financial backing emboldened Bolivia to harden its stance, while Brazil’s capacity to respond assertively was neutralized by domestic audience costs, intensified by electoral pressures. The result was not mediation or de-escalation, but a contested equilibrium shaped by positive feedback dynamics. Our findings show that third-party support can strategically reshape payoff structures in ways that incentivize escalation, even under conditions of deep interdependence. This framework advances the study of international negotiations by modelling how escalation can emerge endogenously from the strategic structure of trilateral interactions.
- Topic:
- Gas, Negotiation, Crisis Management, Game Theory, and Supermodular Game Theory
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Bolivia
14. From alignment to action: Building a durable US-Argentina critical minerals partnership
- Author:
- Reed Blakemore, Alexis Harmon, and Ignacio Albe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For decades, Argentina has been viewed as a mining opportunity that never quite materialized. Now, Argentina’s mining sector is evolving from a speculative frontier to an active, contested space—one where the United States has a clear opportunity. Both countries are confronting different sides of the same challenge. Argentina must translate its mineral wealth into sustained investment and economic growth, while the United States must secure reliable external sources of the materials its economy increasingly depends on. Where these needs intersect, a strategic opportunity is emerging. This report examines Argentina at an inflection point. After decades of policy volatility and stalled development, recent reforms under President Javier Milei, including the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), are beginning to shift investor sentiment. At the same time, Argentina has signaled clear interest in deepening ties with the United States, including through a new bilateral framework that prioritizes critical minerals cooperation. Yet this opportunity is not guaranteed. Infrastructure gaps, energy constraints, and complex provincial dynamics continue to shape project development. Meanwhile, ownership structures and supply chain relationships for lithium and copper are being set now in ways that will influence market alignment for decades. Against this backdrop, Argentina is a critical test case for US economic engagement in regional mineral supply chains. This report outlines how coordinated deployment of US policy and financing tools can help unlock investment while supporting Argentina’s development priorities, including infrastructure expansion and greater local value creation. Ultimately, the case for deeper US–Argentina cooperation is grounded in mutual benefit. For Argentina, it offers a pathway to convert mineral wealth into durable growth. For the United States, it provides access to essential inputs, expanded commercial opportunities, and a chance to demonstrate that its long-term partnerships can deliver.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economic Growth, Mining, Energy, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, North America, and United States of America
15. Colombia Debates “Total Peace” and “Total War”
- Author:
- Joshua Collins and Daniela Diaz Rangel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The June 21 presidential runoff will feature starkly different approaches to the growing power of armed and criminal groups.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Elections, Organized Crime, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
16. The Economic Returns of Firms' Political Connections
- Author:
- Lucas Braga de Melo and Valdemar Pinho Neto
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the economic returns to political connections in Brazilian local elections, focusing not only on traditional campaign donations but also on two novel channels: firms that provide goods or services to candidates during campaigns and firms’ owners affiliated with parties within a coalition running for mayor. Employing regression discontinuity and event study methods around close mayoral races, we find that politically connected firms substantially increase both their likelihood of securing procurement contracts and the value of those contracts, though without corresponding gains in employment or wages. This paper contributes to the literature on political connections by documenting the emergence of indirect political connections and public procurement allocation in a context of weak institutional constraints.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Elections, Business, Procurement, and Local Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
17. Mapping mobility and opportunity: How place, gender, and ethnicity shape economic outcomes in Ecuador
- Author:
- Paolo Brunori, Diego del Pozo, H. Xavier Jara, and Lorena Moreno
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Integrating administrative data from the civil registry, social security, and national censuses, we provide novel evidence on intergenerational income mobility and equality of opportunity among 514,890 formal workers in Ecuador. Our results show substantial intergenerational mobility (rank–rank slope 0.22, elasticity 0.17). Formal employment substantially equalizes mobility: gender differences are minimal, and ethnic disparities are compressed, although ethnic minorities face barriers at the bottom. Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) endogenously identifies 63 spatially homogeneous areas based on intergenerational income elasticity (IGE) and highlights a large degree of variation, with elasticities ranging from 0.09 to 0.23. We complement our analysis with a Roemerian equality of opportunity framework using transformation trees, which shows that equality of opportunity is relatively limited: the worst-off earn 74% of average income, and circumstances predict 33% of total inequality. Our findings suggest that stable formal employment serves as an important equalizing mechanism for intergenerational mobility among formal sector workers, though the persistent ethnic disparities and spatial heterogeneity we observe point to remaining challenges in achieving equality of opportunity across all groups and regions in Ecuador.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Machine Learning, Social Mobility, and Equal Opportunity
- Political Geography:
- South America and Ecuador
18. The Effects of the One Laptop per Child Program in Peru
- Author:
- Santiago Cueto, Diether W. Beuermann, Julian Cristia, Ofer Malamud, and Francisco Pardo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Developing countries have invested heavily in improving educational outcomes by expanding access to technology in schools. For example, between 2006 and 2012, 20 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean distributed nearly 10 million laptops to public school students. One highly publicized initiative was the One Laptop per Child (OLPC) program, which provided personal laptops to students in 40 countries. These types of programs have garnered renewed interest since the COVID-19 pandemic, which started the trend of remote schooling. But experiments have generally not found any short-term effects of these programs on educational outcomes. A large-scale experimental evaluation of the OLPC program in Peru found no effects on academic performance or primary school enrollment 15 months into the program.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Science and Technology, and Remote Learning
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
19. Industrial Activity, State Capacity, and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil
- Author:
- Daniel Da Mata, Mario Dotta, and Edson R. Severnini
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Most developing countries struggle with limited state capacity, which hinders their ability to enforce laws and provide public goods. This limitation affects many aspects of governance, including environmental regulation, and can lead to increased deforestation and land degradation. However, policies that outsource state functions to market players—when public and private incentives are aligned—may partially address these challenges by harnessing the private sector’s reach and efficiency.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Deforestation, Livestock, and State Capacity
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
20. Closing the Gaps in Environmental Crime: A Risk-Based Approach to Tackling Money Laundering in the Timber Supply Chain
- Author:
- Igarapé Institute
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Igarapé Institute
- Abstract:
- Deforestation in the Amazon is at a decisive moment. In Brazil alone, 91% of the deforestation recorded between 2023 and 2024 occurred without authorization. The continuation of this process brings the forest closer to a point of no return, with irreversible impacts on climate regulation, the hydrological cycle, biodiversity, and the socioeconomic stability of the region. Despite the magnitude of the crisis, environmental crime still does not occupy a central position in the agenda to combat organized crime, even though it is a large-scale illicit activity enabled by the commission of related crimes such as corruption, document fraud, false statements, and money laundering. The timber sector clearly illustrates this dynamic. Illegal extraction does not occur outside the productive system, but rather through it. Forest management plans are manipulated, authorizations are granted under conflicts of interest, documents are falsified, and illegally extracted timber is inserted into the formal market as if it were a legitimate product. The concealment of the illicit origin of environmental assets constitutes, in practice, a process of laundering. However, the absence of specific typologies and indicators creates a regulatory gap that allows illicit revenues to be integrated into the formal market and the financial system with a low level of detection. In response to this gap, the Igarapé Institute developed this study to strengthen the anti-money laundering system through the creation of techniques aimed at identifying risks of fraud, corruption, and money laundering in the timber sector. The proposed methodologies include indicators organized into three categories: (i) identification of conflicts of interest between public officials and companies in the timber sector; (ii) detection of risks associated with fraud and corruption in the approval of forest management plans; and (iii) analysis of risks linked to the extraction and processing of illegal timber. To test the applicability of these techniques, the Igarapé Institute conducted a pilot study in the state of Pará, which resulted in the identification of 125 public officials, 204 technical professionals responsible for signing forest management plans, 877 individuals, and 116 entities holding exploitation rights over the area, as well as 341 timber processing units with indications of high risk. The exercise demonstrates that it is possible to adapt the anti-money laundering system to the specificities of environmental crime and expand its capacity for prevention and detection.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Governance, Supply Chains, Deforestation, Money Laundering, Enforcement, Logging, Environmental Crime, and Forest Management
- Political Geography:
- South America and Amazon