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501. R2P Monitor, Issue 55, 15 January 2021

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 55 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Myanmar (Burma), Nigeria and South Sudan.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, China, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South America, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

502. From Beirut to Brazil

Author:
Diogo Bercito
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
At Lebanon’s centennial, it’s time for scholars to take a closer look at the country’s historic ties to Brazil, argues MAAS alum Diogo Bercito.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, History, Diaspora, and Culture
Political Geography:
Middle East, Brazil, South America, and Lebanon

503. Case Study 1. Peru: How Gender-Restrictive Groups May Lose the Legal Battle, but Win the Communications and Cultural War

Author:
Juliana Martínez, Ángela Duarte, and María Juliana Rojas
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Elevate Children Funders Group
Abstract:
Peru is the birthplace of one of Latin America’s strongest transnational gender-restrictive movements. Understanding its sociocultural and political context sheds light on the operation of gender-restrictive groups and the rise of neoconservative politics in the region. Lima is geopolitically and strategically important because it hosts the headquarters for various gender-restrictive organizations in the region, including Ceprofarena, the Office for Latin America of the Population Research Institute, Latin American Alliance for the Family, Opus Dei, and Sodalicio de la Vida Cristiana (interview with George Hale, 2020). Therefore, many strategies that instrumentalize children32 to manufacture moral panic and oppose “gender ideology” in countries such as Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, and Chile are oftentimes planned or tested in Peru, or implemented in the country after their success elsewhere. Concretely, the Don’t Mess With My Kids (DMWMK) movement33 in Peru is representative of how genderrestrictive groups instrumentalize children to threaten children’s rights, along with gender-justice, in a country with disturbing evidence of gender-based violence and intense sexism. The Peruvian case also illuminates the ways in which gender-restrictive groups identify key battlefields related to women’s and children’s issues—such as Comprehensive Sexuality Education—that they use as a toehold to advance gender-restrictive initiatives in many policy areas and at several political levels.
Topic:
Human Rights, Children, LGBT+, Gender Minorities, and Gender
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

504. National Oil Companies and the Energy Transition: Ecopetrol's Acquisition of an Electric Transmission Company

Author:
Mauricio Cardenas and Luisa Palacios
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The energy transition strategies of international oil companies have come under increased scrutiny from investors and the media as countries across the globe grapple with targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[1] It is unclear if national oil companies (NOCs) are going to feel the same pressure given their government-majority ownership and, if so, how they will adjust their business models. This commentary explores recent moves by Colombian national oil company Ecopetrol to adapt to the energy transition, especially its bid to acquire a majority stake in Interconexión Eléctrica SA (ISA), an electricity transmission company, for 14.2 trillion Colombian pesos (equal to about $3.6 billion).[2] The proposed acquisition was met with mixed reactions, with some critics suggesting it was an opportunistic move on the part of the Colombian government (which has a majority interest in both companies) to book some revenues and reduce the ballooning fiscal deficit. But rather than analyzing its fiscal merits, this piece analyzes the potential transaction from the viewpoint of Ecopetrol and whether there are lessons from the deal for other NOCs navigating the energy transition. This commentary begins with a brief background on both companies and the potential benefits for Ecopetrol in pursuing a path that is different relative to what some other oil companies are doing in order to adjust their business models. Ecopetrol faces specific as well as regional challenges that make transition strategies used by the European oil companies less attractive. The piece then discusses how, if part of the goal of the acquisition is to accelerate Ecopetrol’s energy transition and to add shareholder value, a number of complementary actions should be taken to help with the governance aspect of this acquisition while at the same time strengthening Ecopetrol’s pledge to become net zero by 2050. For example, in arranging financing, Ecopetrol could explore issuing an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) bond where the proceeds are earmarked for the purchase of ISA, which is already a net-zero company. In addition, the coupon rate could be linked to specific emissions reductions on Ecopetrol’s oil and gas activities. Tying these targets to the coupon rate could be seen as a credible mechanism to ensure that the company will comply with its ambitious climate goals. In addition, we propose that Ecopetrol maintain ISA’s current governance structure unmodified and preserve its operational independence. This would allow ISA to benefit from its investment grade status (which Ecopetrol does not enjoy) and continue to deploy its capital expenditures (CapEx) plan geared toward investing in Latin America’s electricity sector without interference. To conclude, this transaction by itself does not guarantee a successful energy transition for Ecopetrol’s core business. If Ecopetrol’s goal is to diversify its portfolio of activities and reduce its carbon footprint, then it should ensure the sum of the two companies results in synergies that reduce emissions beyond what each one of them can achieve individually. This is not a guaranteed outcome but one that will depend on how ISA performs under Ecopetrol’s ownership, the extent to which this transaction brings new opportunities in the renewable energy space, and how the revenues derived from this acquisition help to finance the decarbonization of Ecopetrol.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

505. Climate Politics and the Crisis of the Liberal International Order

Author:
Felipe Leal Albuquerque
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The election of Donald Trump brought disarray to the climate change regime. The changes in what was up to then a promoter of the liberal international order (LIO) exacerbated existing tensions while creating new ones. This paper investigates how that challenge impacted the behaviours of Brazil, China and the European Union (EU) by comparatively analysing their dissimilar positions with respect to three indicators before and after Trump’s coming into power. These indicators are individual pledges and climate-related policies; approaches to climate finance; and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The analysis first shows how the US started eroding the broader LIO and the climate change regime to then delve into the behaviours of the three respective key players concerning climate talks. I sustain that the EU, despite its inner divisions, is already counteracting Washington, whereas China is combining a pro-status quo position based on a rhetorical condemnation of the United States. Brazil, in turn, had a transition towards a climate-sceptic government, shifting from being a cooperative actor to abdicating hosting the COP25.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Liberal Order, Multilateralism, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

506. Entrenching the Problem? International Organizations and Their Engagement in Latin America to Address Violence: The Case of the European Union in the Northern Triangle

Author:
Kai Lehmann
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Latin America is the most violent region in the world. Yet, decades of political and financial investment by the international community have not had the desired results. Using the work of the European Union in the Northern Triangle of Central America as a case study, this article asks what explains this failure. Utilizing the conceptual framework of Complexity and Human System Dynamics, it argues that current policies actually entrench the pattern of conditions which lead to, and sustain, violence. It shows how, by reconceptualizing this problem using the concepts of Complexity, policies could be made more effective and sustainable.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Europe, South America, Latin America, and North America

507. Rethinking Polanyi’s Fictitious Commodities Based on the Brazilian Nuclear Segment

Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to show evidence of the undetermined expansion of Polanyi’s fictitious commodities within the Brazilian nuclear context. The issue of the marketification of social agendas has drawn a lot of attention to the data, collected through in-depth interviews. The analytical process was guided by the decolonial theory approach and by critical discourse analysis. Among the analysis’ main findings, it is possible to point out the elaboration of a framework which reveals the mechanisms employed by the Brazilian nuclear segment as a way of exercising parallel power and silencing social agendas. The main contributions are the temporal and geopolitical updating of Polanyi’s thesis; and the definition of the mechanisms used by the company Eletronuclear and by institutions as a way of co-optation, naturalisation and marketification of social and political agendas.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Neoliberalism, Decolonization, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

508. From Municipalist Activism to Institutional Changes: An Analysis of the Subnational Dimension in Mercosur (1995-2019)

Author:
Cairo Gabriel Borges Junqueira
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Mercosur has gone through distinct phases, leading to the articulation between a myriad of sectors, groups, and actors, among which subnational governments stand out. Local governments started this movement in 1995, with the foundation of the Mercosur Cities Network. In 2000, the Specialized Meeting of Municipalities and Intendencies (REMI) was created, replaced in the following years by the Mercosur Advisory Forum of Municipalities, States, Provinces, and Departments (FCCR), known for being the channel for subnational representation in the bloc. Drawing on bibliographic and document analysis, in addition to interviews and questionnaires, this article aims to analyze the internationalization and inclusion of subnational actors in Mercosur, mainly focusing on the changes observed over the years within these three institutions. The first section introduces the literature on paradiplomacy and deals specifically with Mercosur, seeking to verify how the regional agenda has been expanded, despite decision-making processes not being decentralized. The second and third sections analyse the origins of subnational integration through Mercocities alongside the development of REMI and FCCR. Considering the historical and institutional specificities of Mercosur, the research concludes by questioning the assumption of International Relations literature that regional blocs are potential arenas for effective internationalization of subnational governments.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Governance, Subnationalism, and Activism
Political Geography:
South America

509. Chinese Investments in Brazil: Economic Diplomacy in Bilateral Relations

Author:
Virginia Soledad Busilli and Maria Belen Jaime
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China has consolidated its status as a great power and strengthened its presence in different regions of the planet. In accordance with its economic development strategy, Beijing’s growing bond with Latin America is part of China’s need to guarantee access to raw materials and energy resources. In this framework and through economic diplomacy, China has strengthened its trade relations, as well as loans and investments in most of the region’s countries.Brazil is an example of this relationship pattern, as one of China’s most important partners and top investment destination in Latin America. It became Beijing’s top commercial partner in 2012. This paper will analyse the composition and evolution of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Brazil between the years of 2004 and 2020. In order to do so, we will study the main projects carried out by the country, as well as the characteristics of the Chinese companies (state or non-state) that participated in the process, in order to understand their most important features. Likewise, we will analyse the articulation of the Chinese FDI with its trade flows. We will start from the premise that Chinese investments in Brazil are directly linked to Beijing’s strategic interests, while at the same time guided by market logics that try to maximise profits. In this vein, within the framework of the ‘going out strategy’,state companies play a fundamental role.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

510. New Clothes, Old Threads: The Dangerous Right-Wing Offensive in Latin America

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In Latin America, the adoption of the neo-reactionary and alternative right projects of the Global North appears to be a launching pad from which to modify the cognitive maps of the people and to shift political and discursive positions and public agendas to the right. This dossier analyses the right-wing developments in Latin America, identifying how they operate and with what discourses, what social base they mobilise, and their continuities of and ruptures with the history of the right wing in the continent.
Topic:
Politics, Far Right, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

511. CoronaShock and Education in Brazil: One and a Half Years Later

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
This dossier seeks to assess the effects of CoronaShock on education in Brazil, in particular how a mercantile logic advanced through the pandemic and how large corporations in the sector took advantage of the crisis. It documents the actions of private corporations, changes in the educational model, the impact on workers in the sector, and the challenges facing a programme of struggle.
Topic:
Education, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

512. The Challenges Facing Brazil’s Left

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Brazil is living through a reactionary situation led by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who relies on the social support and approval of the country’s ruling classes and Armed Forces. Meanwhile, the Brazilian left aims to regroup and recreate its social base as it tries to regain the political stewardship of the country. Through interviews with leaders of popular movements and parties in Brazil, dossier no. 40 analyses the challenges facing Brazil’s left in this difficult reality.
Topic:
Governance, Military Affairs, Far Right, and Leftist Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

513. Dawn: Marxism and National Liberation

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Dossier no. 37 is an invitation to a dialogue, a conversation about the entangled tradition of Marxism and national liberation – a tradition that emerges out of the October Revolution and that deepens its roots in the anti-colonial conflicts of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This is an introduction to a wide-ranging conversation that includes many different revolutionary movements, mostly rooted in the continents of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Topic:
Socialism/Marxism, Colonialism, Revolution, Liberalization, and Anti-Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

514. The Two Sources of the Illiberal Turn in Brazil

Author:
Afonso de Albuquerque
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In the early 2010s, the consolidation of Brazilian democracy seemed a well- established fact. Although far from perfect, the prospects for Brazil’s future looked bright. The economy was booming, and Brazil appeared to be on the verge of assuming a more prominent role in international politics. A few years later, Brazil’s fortune has reversed dramatically. In 2018, far-right politician Jair Bolsonaro won the Brazilian presidential election. Nostalgic for the military dictatorship that governed the country from 1964 to 1985, Bolsonaro has cham- pioned an anti-human rights agenda. Throughout his tenure, he has minimized the COVID-19 health crisis,1 denied the existence of climate change, and used his platform to spread disinformation.2 He often attacks the National Congress, Supreme Court, and press. Bolsonaro has even threatened these entities, argu- ing he has the Armed Forces and the people on his side. How did this happen?
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Jair Bolsonaro, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

515. Kind or contented? An investigation of the gift exchange hypothesis in a natural field experiment in Colombia

Author:
Francesco Bogliacino, Gianluca Grimalda, and David Pipke
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The gift exchange hypothesis postulates that workers reciprocate above market-clearing wages with above-minimum effort. This hypothesis has received mixed support in dyadic employer-worker relationships. We present a field-experimental test to assess this hypothesis in the context of a triadic relationship in which only one out of two workers receives a pay increase. We conjecture that inequality aversion motivations may thwart positive reciprocity motivations and analyze the interaction between such motivations theoretically. Across three treatments, the pay increase is justified to workers based on either relative merit or relative need or was arbitrary as no justification was offered. Two conditions in which either none or both workers receive a bonus serve as the reference. In contrast to the gift exchange hypothesis, we find that pay increases lead to a decrease in productivity. Such a decrease is most sizable in the condition where both workers receive the bonus. A post-diction of this result is that workers interpret the monetary bonus as a signal of the employer’s contentment with their effort, which makes them feel entitled to reduce their effort. In other treatments, receiving the pay increase while the coworker does not has a positive effect on productivity, especially when the pay increase is based on merit. This result is consistent with statusseeking preferences rather than aversion against advantageous inequality. Conversely, not receiving the pay increase while the coworker does, leads to lower productivity, especially when the pay increase is assigned based on relative needs.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Policies, and Wealth
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

516. Building back better after the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:
Miguel Jaramillo and Bruno Escobar
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
In this policy-oriented paper, we provide a pre- and post-pandemic socioeconomic analysis of Peru, along with a financially sustainable five-year Building Back Better recovery plan, which emphasizes the urgency of addressing some of the country’s structural weaknesses. We underscore the importance of public investment for this effort, but widen the focus to include current public expenditure, in order to take steps towards building a more universal social protection system. We show that this also contributes to reducing the gender imbalances in the labor market that the pandemic exposed and exacerbated. We provide a financial programming exercise that demonstrates that the plan is financially responsible under a reasonable fiscal rule. Four core ideas stand out from our analysis. Firstly, while public investment can be key to reigniting economic growth, it does not go very far in tackling structural weaknesses. Secondly, public spending in health can actually achieve this from two fronts: by beginning to build a universal access social protection system and by addressing gender imbalances in the labor market. Thirdly, focusing public discussion on social protection enables a broader approach to policy reform by including formal employment and productivity enhancing reforms, which are essential for the sustainability of a broad social protection system. Finally, we also show that the sector mix in public investment has an impact on employment results, both in terms of the volume of jobs generated and their gender composition.
Topic:
Health, Inequality, COVID-19, Socioeconomics, Public Spending, and Gender
Political Geography:
South America and Peru