Political Geography: South America / Publication Year: within 5 Years

451. Engaging Brazil in the era of climate action: Can Europe and the United States devise a new globalisation?

Author:: Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Increased deforestation in the Amazon is the outcome of Brazil’s long political crisis. What started in 2013 with a bus fare hike has traversed through contestable impeachment and populist uprising into a constitutional stalemate. European institutional investors have been in the vanguard of checking Brasília’s lax approach to deforestation and other environmental challenges. While investors continue to carry a big stick, European and US political leadership should consider what carrots they can offer Brasília. Brussels and Washington have changed course rapidly from an approach that emphasised closer ties with Brasília to one of dissatisfaction and distancing. This is both a cause and an effect of Brazil’s international standing diminishing both in terms of economy and country brand. In recent years, Brazil has simultaneously tried to raze more rainforest and build North Atlantic trading relations; the two cannot be done at the same time. A politics of rapprochement with Brazil requires much closer coordination between Europe and the United States than the parties are accustomed to; a commitment to a climate-sensitive globalisation is necessary from Brasília.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Globalization, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Brazil, South America, and North America

452. Thermal Coal in Colombia: Perspectives and Risks for the Economies of La Guajira and Cesar Departments

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: The exploitation of thermal coal in Colombia faces great challenges despite the abundance and quality of the country’s reserves. The main challenges are due to the external context: the downward trend in prices due to the structural drop in consumption due to the rapid substitution of coal for less polluting fuels or renewable sources in the European market, coupled with the great distance to Asian markets, have raised doubts about the economic viability of coal exports from Colombia. Colombia could be one of the first countries to suffer from the contraction in global demand for thermal coal, because its main markets are Turkey (23 percent) and the Atlantic ports in Europe (19 percent), two markets where demand will likely diminish in the short term. The contraction in demand would have various effects on the country’s economy, as it is the second-most important export (after oil), an important source of royalties and one of the main axes of the economies of La Guajira and Cesar departments. This study analyzes the implications of the decline in coal demand for the national economy and for the main producing regions, such as La Guajira and Cesar, which are highly dependent on coal exploitation.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Coal
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

453. The Exile Effect: Venezuela’s Overseas Opposition and Social Media

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: A study of social media content shows that Venezuelan opposition figures often take harder anti-government lines if they flee abroad. Exiles’ voices are important, but those trying to end Venezuela’s crisis should listen to others as well, recalling that compromise offers the only peaceful exit.
Topic:: Mass Media, Leadership, Social Media, Conflict, Peace, and Opposition
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

454. Deeply Rooted: Coca Eradication and Violence in Colombia

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Coca gives Colombian small farmers a stable livelihood but also endangers their lives, as criminals battle over the drug trade and authorities try to shut it down. Bogotá and Washington should abandon their heavy-handed elimination efforts and help growers find alternatives to the hardy plant.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Violence, Rural, Illegal Trade, Organized Crime, and Farming
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

455. The Pandemic Strikes: Responding to Colombia’s Mass Protests

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In Colombia’s history of protest, the 2021 mobilisations against inequality and police brutality stand out for their breadth and intensity. Unrest has quieted for now but could soon return. The government should urgently reform the security sector while working to narrow the country’s socio-economic chasms.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, Protests, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

456. A Broken Canopy: Deforestation and Conflict in Colombia

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Colombia’s vast forest is fast receding, partly because guerrillas and criminals are clearing land for farming, ranching and other pursuits. These unregulated activities are causing both dire environmental harm and deadly conflict. Bogotá should take urgent steps to halt the damage.
Topic:: Environment, Conflict, Farming, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

457. A Fight by Other Means: Keeping the Peace with Colombia’s FARC

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Colombia’s 2016 peace deal was a landmark achievement, convincing the FARC guerrillas to disarm and enter civilian life. Yet much remains to be done to show insurgents that they can redress their grievances through ordinary politics. The country’s leaders should recommit to finishing the job.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

458. 2021 Resource Governance Index

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Decisions about how the oil, gas and mining sectors are governed determine the wellbeing of the billion people living in poverty in resource-rich countries. Where policies and practices ensure informed, inclusive and accountable decision making, natural resources can enable fair, prosperous and sustainable societies, rather than undermine them. The climate crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and dramatic changes in global energy markets have increased the stakes of good governance. Complex decisions about how to enable the political and economic adaptations necessary for a managed phaseout of fossil fuels and responsible increase in production of transition minerals sit at the heart of this dual crisis. Governance of the oil, gas and mining sectors will play a central role in the transition away from fossil fuels and the return to progress against poverty. The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) produces the Resource Governance Index (RGI) as a diagnostic tool to measure the governance of oil, gas, and mining sectors in select countries and to highlight opportunities for policy and practice reforms at the global, regional and country levels. The 2021 RGI assesses the governance of extractive sectors in 18 countries, including both established mineral and hydrocarbon producers, as well as new and prospective entrants to natural resource production.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, Mining, Sustainability, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Central Asia, Middle East, Mongolia, Colombia, South America, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Tanzania, Mexico, Senegal, Nigeria, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia, Peru, Ghana, Guinea, Guyana, and Democratic Republic of Congo

459. End the Failed Regime Change Campaign in Venezuela

Author:: Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: After Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s death in 2013, then-Vice President Nicolás Maduro succeeded the late socialist leader, consolidating power amid rampant economic mismanagement and increasing violence and deprivation. Venezuela’s authoritarian slide accelerated under Maduro’s rule. Electoral fraud, crackdowns on opposition figures, and human rights abuses hardened U.S. resolve to apply pressure to change Caracas’ policies. President Trump reportedly discussed using U.S. military force to oust Maduro in 2019 but pursued non-military regime change instead, increasing economic and diplomatic pressure in the false hope the Venezuelan leader would vacate his office. President Biden has continued this policy. The U.S. objective remains: (1) to delegitimize and push out Maduro as the country’s leader and (2) put pressure on Venezuela’s economy to force Caracas into reinstituting democracy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regime Change, Authoritarianism, Economy, Nicholas Maduro, and Mismanagement
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

460. A More Expansive Atlantic History of the Americas: An Interview with Jorge Cañizares-Esguerra

Author:: Jorge Cañizares-Esguerra and Fernando Gómez Herrero
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: Jorge Cañizares-Esguerra’s work intermingles the colonial histories of the Americas—the United States and Latin America. Cañizares-Esguerra’s expansive historical project is Americanist, yet not in the usual sense of the term. What “America” historically is must engage with a rich contradiction of meaning-making narratives generated by a plurality of social agents. Cañizares-Esguerra resists national containment of such historical narratives and provocatively engages with the early modern and early colonial period (1500s) and with the Enlightenment and nineteenth-century liberalism alike. Themes of belief and faith, of knowledge and science, among a variety of historical agents and subjectivities, feature prominently within his work. This interview explores Cañizares-Esguerra’s Atlanticism and his cautions regarding certain global history tendencies. Cañizares Esguerra details his current project, Radical Spanish Empire. His aim is to historicize, to radicalize, to Americanize (expansively understood), and to show that colonial Massachusetts is unintelligible without Puebla or Tlaxcala in colonial Mexico, that colonial Virginia makes no sense without its Andean and Peruvian counterparts, and that Calvinists should be understood alongside Franciscans. Cañizares-Esguerra wants to pluralize the historical narrative outside the conventional liberal moulds of modernity in the Americas. In this, he catches me by surprise when he negates that plural modernities constitute the telos of his enterprise and when he gives the cold shoulder to cultural studies and postcolonial/decolonial studies. The main intellectual thrust of our discussion regarded the intellectual inevitability of native and foreign entanglements, historical and contemporary, and the political desirability that cuts across the “Anglo” and “Latin” divide, at least initially. He offers an expansive Atlantic History, along provocative Iberianizing lines, mixing the “Anglo” and “Latin” categories. It serves as an invitation to go beyond American histories’ extant boundaries, of which there will be many more than two.
Topic:: Imperialism, History, Culture, Colonialism, and Spanish Empire
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and North America

461. The pandemic will not stop us: The impact of COVID-19 on women’s peace activism in Colombia, the Philippines, South Sudan and Ukraine

Author:: Anne Marie Goetz
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:: In Fall 2020, a rapid review of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women peace activists in Colombia, South Sudan, the Philippines and Ukraine was conducted as part of an ongoing partnership between the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP) and the New York University Center for Global Affairs (NYU CGA).1 The review found that the crisis has delayed implementation of peace agreements, in particular their gender provisions, shifted women’s peace advocacy to online spaces, impacted the membership composition of women’s peace groups, and diverted women’s organizational energies into humanitarian action to support community resilience.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Philippines, Colombia, South America, and South Sudan

462. Alive in the Demand for Change: Transitional Justice and Prevention in Peru

Author:: Julie Guillerot
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: From 1980 to 2000, Peru experienced both a violent internal violent conflict and political authoritarianism. In the two decades since, the country has implemented a wide range of transitional justice processes, including elements of truth, criminal justice, reparations, and institutional reforms directed at guaranteeing nonrecurrence. This study reflects on the preventive impact of those processes. It pays specific attention to the factors that facilitated the conflict and help explains its differentiated impact on victims and affected communities. The Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission (CVR) revealed significant and longstanding socioeconomic, geographic, and educational divisions within Peruvian society that both caused the political violence and were reinforced by it. It painted a picture of victims as socially and economically excluded and placed the political violence within the context of almost two hundred years of domination, marginalization, and oppression of members of the Andean and native populations. In order to mend these human rights violations and social fractures, the CVR recommended truth, justice, reparations, and guarantees of nonrecurrence. The study contends that there is a before and after the CVR. Policies that contribute to preventing the recurrence of widespread political violence and abuses have been developed that would not have been possible without the existence of the CVR. There are also signs that the CVR’s narrative has penetrated a broader stratum of the population and political class, and that transitional justice has had a positive impact on society’s internal and external control of institutions. The broader democratic transition in Peru, however, never truly attempted to create a pluralist society based on a new social pact that included all Peruvians in the benefits and obligations of citizenship. In the absence of broader cultural or attitudinal institutional transformations, advances linked to transitional justice ultimately depend on the benevolent will of government officials and on persistent advocacy from victims’ groups and human rights organizations. The process of change remains unfinished.
Topic:: Reform, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

463. Accountability in Policing COVID-19: Lessons from the Field

Author:: Anna Myriam Roccatello and Mohamed Suma
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: As countries around the world roll out their COVID-19 vaccination programs and gradually reopen their economies and borders, the coronavirus continues to ravage vulnerable communities. Moreover, these same communities have borne the brunt of the economic disruption caused by the pandemic, which decimated livelihoods, increased poverty, and exacerbated inequalities in many countries. Early in the pandemic, countries rushed to shut their borders and impose emergency measures, such as curfews, travel restrictions, and community lockdowns. States deployed security forces to enforce these measures, some of which resulted in widespread human rights violations, including torture, killings, and intimidation of persons perceived as failing to comply with their orders. Colombia, Kenya, Lebanon, and Uganda—all countries where ICTJ works—are among those whose security agencies weaponized their powers under these emergency measures and often used brutal means to keep people off the streets. While constitutional police forces committed the bulk of these abuses, a growing number of paramilitaries, citizen vigilantes, and other nonstate forces have also committed human rights violations while enforcing the emergency measures. However, the COVID-19 pandemic underscores states' obligation to protect the inherent right to life and the subsequent right to health. Moreover, national and international human rights laws allow states to temporarily suspend certain rights and invoke special powers that would be considered an infringement of civil liberties in normal situations. Thus, the suspension of those rights is justified by the need to protect the collective good. This paper analyzes the emerging trends of draconian regular policing and vigilante policing during the pandemic in Colombia, Kenya, Lebanon, and Uganda. The paper also describes how armed nonstate groups have come to exercise control in communities where there is no government presence to enforce emergency lockdown and other measures, with little regard for the principles of proportionality and non-discrimination. In all contexts, since the outbreak of the COVID-19, regular police and paramilitary forces have increased their powers, which they have abused extensively. As a result, some policing practices have become deadlier than the virus itself and have exposed the profound frailties of democratic governance.
Topic:: Reform, Criminal Justice, Crisis Management, Institutions, Police, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Colombia, South America, and Lebanon

464. Measuring Results and Monitoring Progress of Transitional Justice Processes

Author:: Mateo Porciuncula
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: Transitional justice processes are complex, politically contested, and not necessarily linear. Because of this, they present unique theoretical and practical challenges for measuring results, which include challenges for gathering data, registering unintended outcomes, reporting progress, providing feedback to interventions, and extracting useful information to establish impact or counterfactuals. Based on a desk research and a series of discussions with practitioners, policymakers, and academics, this report considers the following: The different roles monitoring and evaluation systems can play and the questions they can answer at different stages of a transitional justice process. This report recommends conducting assessments early on to inform design and to build feedback loops into ongoing processes. Key features of transitional justice processes, including their complexity, their political nature, and the difficult contexts where they are usually implemented. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods and designing monitoring and evaluation approaches that allow for capturing rich contextual data and unexpected results. Power dynamics, exclusion, and language, particularly in fragile contexts and when dealing with vulnerable populations. Monitoring and evaluation approaches that are conflict sensitive, victim centered, and participatory. The Sustainable Development Agenda as a framework for measuring results of transitional justice. While a politically legitimate and useful conceptual framework, there is room for improvement as current indicators are not best suited to contexts where a large proportion of the population has experienced human right abuses. Overall, stakeholders in transitional justice should take a “user-centered” approach to measuring progress and results, one that puts the people that a process is meant to serve at the center. In doing so, they can focus on collecting what matters, establishing feedback loops, and learning from and continually improving their interventions.
Topic:: Reform, Transitional Justice, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Gender, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America, and North America

465. Transitional Justice and Prevention: Summary Findings from Five Country Case Studies

Author:: Roger Duthie
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: This report summarizes the findings of an ICTJ research project exploring the role that transitional justice can play in preventing both massive and serious violations of human rights as well as violence and violent conflict more broadly. Its conclusions are drawn from case studies of five countries—Colombia, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, and Sierra Leone—representing a range of complex contexts in which societies are grappling with violent conflicts, repressive governments, or acute inequality. It argues that transitional justice should be an integral element of conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and sustainable development. The report contends that transitional justice can contribute to prevention by: (1) addressing the exclusion and other harms that victims experience due to human rights violations they suffered; (2) addressing the exclusion and related injustices that communities and social groups face as a result of targeted violations and structural marginalization; (3) strengthening the rule of law and making it more inclusive; and (4) catalyzing the reform of institutions and laws that have perpetuated violence and discrimination as a means to exclude marginalized groups. The report also identifies a number of limitations to the preventive impact of transitional justice, including: (1) tensions that can exist between justice and prevention initiatives, especially in the short term; (2) justice processes that may be seen to be insufficiently participatory or even exclusionary themselves; (3) a lack of implementation of measures and reforms that are designed or recommended; and (4) contextual factors such political dynamics, security concerns, and the absence of broader structural change. The report concludes that applying a prevention lens to transitional justice does not fundamentally change how the field is understood, but it does have broad policy implications. First, fostering inclusion should be a primary objective of both the outcomes and the design of transitional justice mechanisms. Second, assessing the preventive role of transitional justice requires a long-term approach to inclusion and reform as these involve changes to social relationships, institutions, and structures. Third, prevention requires a society to confront both the root causes and consequences of injustice, and transitional justice processes can contribute greatly in this regard. However, they alone are not enough.
Topic:: Reform, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, North Africa, North America, Sierra Leone, Morocco, Peru, and Oceania

466. Setting an Agenda for Sustainable Peace: Transitional Justice and Prevention in Colombia

Author:: María Cielo Linares
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: This study examines the preventive impact of transitional justice mechanisms created in Colombia before the 2016 peace agreement, namely the 2005 Peace and Justice Law and the 2011 Victims and Land Restitution Law. It finds that transitional justice has contributed to prevention in a number of ways, including by: (1) improving institutional responses for victims of human rights violations and creating spaces for participation; (2) adding issues to the public agenda, such as those related to economic and political networks supporting armed groups and the need to address the plundering of land; (3) developing a culture of awareness and respect for human rights; and (4) strengthening leadership within victims’ communities and facilitating the reintegration of victims into public life. The report also concludes, however, that these transitional justice processes have not done all that they could to promote the structural social changes necessary to resolve the underlying violent dynamics, especially in matters of inequity and discrimination, leaving the door open for future violence. Little progress has been made in addressing economic, social, cultural, and environmental rights violations, and insufficient attention has been paid to gender and ethnic discrimination. Where progress has been made in areas such as land restitution and participation, it has been limited by a lack of coordination between the national and local levels, a dearth of political will, and an ensuing failure of implementation. The study demonstrates that pursuing transitional justice in contexts of ongoing violence requires coordination between the justice and security sectors that depends on a holistic view of security and sustainable development. Additionally, it suggests that transitional justice processes have to work in tandem with the institutions set up to more directly address the structural problems of inequity and inequality. Finally, it contends that promoting the rights to truth, justice, reparation, and nonrecurrence requires a strategy to comprehensively address the associated demands and expectations.
Topic:: Reform, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Peace, Reparations, Gender, Atrocity Prevention, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

467. A Fight by Other Means: Keeping the Peace with Colombia’s FARC

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Colombia’s 2016 peace deal was a landmark achievement, convincing the FARC guerrillas to disarm and enter civilian life. Yet much remains to be done to show insurgents that they can redress their grievances through ordinary politics. The country’s leaders should recommit to finishing the job.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

468. A Broken Canopy: Deforestation and Conflict in Colombia

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Colombia’s vast forest is fast receding, partly because guerrillas and criminals are clearing land for farming, ranching and other pursuits. These unregulated activities are causing both dire environmental harm and deadly conflict. Bogotá should take urgent steps to halt the damage.
Topic:: Environment, Regulation, Farming, Ranching, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

469. The Pandemic Strikes: Responding to Colombia’s Mass Protests

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In Colombia’s history of protest, the 2021 mobilisations against inequality and police brutality stand out for their breadth and intensity. Unrest has quieted for now but could soon return. The government should urgently reform the security sector while working to narrow the country’s socio-economic chasms.
Topic:: Inequality, State Violence, Protests, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

470. What Railway Deals Taught Chinese and Brazilians in the Amazon

Author:: Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Maiara Folly, and Maurício Santoro
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Over the past decade, Chinese investments in Brazil have expanded and diversified considerably, especially ones involving infrastructure. Chinese investors have also diversified geographically. Increasingly, major Brazilian infrastructure projects are being planned or implemented with Chinese backing in environmentally sensitive regions such as the Amazon rain forest and the Cerrado, a large savanna region in Central-West Brazil. Chinese actors have become directly involved in such projects against a backdrop of sharpening debates about sustainability and other consequences of large-scale infrastructure projects. This is especially true in protected areas such as land populated by Indigenous groups and conservation units. A notable example is the Ferrogrão project, a major railway line designed to cross sections of the Amazon and Cerrado to deliver goods to Brazilian ports. This paper examines the diverse ways that Brazilian and Chinese actors have learned from each other as they negotiate the terms of these deals. It also explores how these learning processes have been conditioned by intense domestic political debates over these projects in Brazil. Official documents and secondary sources reveal that, rather than a set Chinese way of doing business or a stock Brazilian response, such projects entail dynamic institutional learning. Such learning is shaped not only by the particulars of the Ferrogrão project but also by Chinese actors’ broader engagement with Brazilian infrastructure projects over the past ten years.
Topic:: Environment, Infrastructure, Investment, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

471. Chinese Mining and Indigenous Resistance in Ecuador

Author:: Cintia Quiliconi and Pablo Rodriguez Vasco
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Chinese mining companies were drawn to Ecuador by a strong interest in diversifying their sources of copper in Latin America. But Chinese mining operations in Ecuador, which could have contributed to Ecuadorian development, soon gained a negative reputation after these activities prompted a great deal of local pushback, especially from affected Indigenous communities. As a result, the major Chinese mining consortium that now controls Ecuador’s two main copper mines has taken adaptive steps to stabilize its mining investment and increase the security of its supply networks, steps that often have not produced the intended results. Working through two subsidiaries, the Chinese mining consortium has responded to this localized criticism with a blend of tactics that includes co-opting select local figures, colluding with national officials to sidestep environmental and sociocultural safeguards, and coercing inhabitants into relocating under the threat of force from accommodating Ecuadorian authorities. By turning Ecuadorian national elites against locals and using divide-and-conquer tactics among Indigenous communities, the Chinese-led mining projects have entrenched existing political cleavages, have undermined community cohesion, and ultimately have harmed Ecuador’s democratic fabric, especially the standing of civil society and Indigenous rights organizations. While Ecuador has welcomed Chinese capital and other sources of international investment, this infusion of financing has increased the risk of political abuses at the national and local levels. This paper explains the adaptive strategies employed by the Chinese consortium and its subsidiaries in charge of the Mirador and San Carlos Panantza mining sites, contrasting the differing results these tactics have produced in each case. Both projects are located in Ecuador’s so-called Copper Belt provinces of Morona Santiago and Zamora Chinchipe, which are part of a mountain range known as the Cordillera del Cóndor. They are embedded in an ecologically and culturally sensitive zone that includes territory of the Indigenous Shuar community in the Ecuadorian Amazon. In the case of Mirador, the Chinese mining consortium’s adaptive response helped its subsidiary overcome local resistance but only by crushing it. In the case of San Carlos Panantza, local resistance so far has not been overcome, so the Chinese consortium has remained unable to proceed with its project. Neither case, even the Mirador site where mining has moved forward, is a sign of success for future relationships between Chinese mining conglomerates and Ecuadorian communities. To understand why the Chinese consortium’s adaptive tactics were somewhat more successful in Mirador, it is important to focus on the differing composition of the inhabitants of the land where the two mines are located. Mirador sits on territory shared by Shuar and non-Shuar settler communities who have different bonds with the land. The non-Shuar settlers emphasize the productive and commercial value of the land over the spiritual and symbolic value that is key for many in the Shuar community. The Canadian-held and later Chinese-controlled companies active in Ecuador’s mining industry understood this difference between Mirador’s inhabitants and adapted accordingly: they managed to displace resistant residents despite widespread opposition through questionable and sometimes arguably illegal purchases of land. In San Carlos Panantza, a second subsidiary of the Chinese consortium chose to respond to local criticism with the same alleged practices of violence, occupation, and displacement used in Mirador. However, although the two projects are geographically near each other, the situation played out differently at the second would-be mine: ongoing opposition has prevented mining operations from beginning at all yet. Again, paying attention to the inhabitants of the land is instructive. San Carlos Panantza is in the heart of Shuar territory in Arutam, a region with few non-Indigenous settlers. The mining incursion by the Chinese-run subsidiary and the Ecuadorian security forces tasked with supporting it were seen as a threat to the area’s Shuar people, who have been strongly protesting and opposing the mining venture since late 2016. This state of affairs is likely to have far-reaching effects for Ecuador too. The apparent collusion between Ecuador’s national government and the Chinese consortium (and its subsidiaries) has crushed those who oppose mining, has upended the country’s policies on resource extraction, and has yielded documented violations of local communities’ human rights. These events have transpired because both the Chinese firms and the Ecuadorian state have tended to see local communities as an obstacle to the development of the country’s extractive industries. As a result, local social and environmental safeguards have been weakened, tenuous consultation processes have eroded, environmental licenses have been granted under dubious circumstances, and local communities have been forcibly displaced. This paper explores the implications of the adaptive tactics chosen by the Chinese mining subsidiaries that run the Mirador and San Carlos Panantza mines. It also addresses how Chinese companies have, in some cases, negotiated with local communities to begin mining exploitation, while also analyzing the ways the Chinese mining consortium has interacted with the Ecuadorian government and other players, such as the Canadian mining company it acquired and other peer companies that set up successful coalitions for mining development in Ecuador. Finally, the paper explores the effects the agreements between the Ecuadorian government and the Chinese consortium have had on local actors.
Topic:: Development, Government, Mining, Indigenous, and Resistance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South America, and Ecuador

472. How Argentina Pushed Chinese Investors to Help Revitalize Its Energy Grid

Author:: Juliana González Jáuregui
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China’s modernization strategy integrates both domestic and foreign policy, especially through two complementary prongs—the so-called Going Global strategy and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This push to internationalize China’s development strategy has ushered in a new era in Beijing’s relationships with countries and regions around the world. In Latin America, these policies have triggered a dynamic pattern of interactions between China and the region’s political economy. Being rich in fuels, energy, foodstuffs, and basic products, countries in Latin America have emerged as significant suppliers for China, but they also have become important destinations for Chinese-made industrial products, and, subsequently, Chinese investment and lending. For Latin American countries, China’s rise as an influential investor, lender, trader, and builder has created an array of new challenges and opportunities. While Beijing has harnessed its engagement in Latin America to support its own development, countries in the region have sought to direct some of China’s economic and financial resources to promote their own strategic sectors. Argentina illustrates this dynamic well, particularly in the energy sector. Argentinian government officials and business leaders have attracted Chinese investment and finance into renewables and other types of energy to promote Buenos Aires’s goals of taking a hybrid path to an energy transition. For its part, China has seized this opportunity to advance its own development goals and to participate in Argentina’s energy transition strategy. Though Argentina has not yet formally joined the BRI, Argentinian officials have reported publicly that Buenos Aires has already decided to endorse the initiative and is waiting for the right moment to do so.1 Argentina has been weighing the pros and cons of signing on to the BRI. On the one hand, signing on could enhance the presence of Chinese actors in the Argentinian renewables sector, as China seeks to intertwine its engagement in Latin America with the deployment of the Green BRI, the dimensions of the initiative that are framed in terms of environmental sustainability. More broadly, joining the BRI could attract new Chinese investment and finance in alternative energy and electricity transmission infrastructure, further contributing to Argentina’s goals for an energy transition. On the other hand, Argentina faces the challenge of designing and implementing a long-term national energy plan that complements its role in the BRI. This means devising an energy plan that, among broader objectives, seeks to help Argentina harness Chinese know-how on renewables and develop innovation and technological capacities of its own. In the meantime, Argentina’s lack of committed engagement with the BRI to date has not impeded the expansion of Chinese overseas investment and financing for renewables and other types of energy projects in the country. In a clear sign of political agency, the diplomatic outreach of key Argentinian national and provincial government officials, as well as corporate players’ push for local associations, has been central in the quest to increase Chinese engagement in Argentina’s solar and wind power sectors and in other alternative energy projects. These interactions have allowed Argentinian policymakers to help shape an adaptive partnership to strengthen the alignment between Chinese investments and Argentinian development objectives. Admittedly, this engagement has at times encountered resistance due to environmental and social risks in certain localities. Even so, these concerns are part of the learning process and set a tone for future cooperation on energy projects. Renewables and alternative energy will continue to be a magnet for global investment as countries around the world strive to address climate change. Thus, local tensions are pushing both Argentinian and Chinese actors to learn from the problematic impacts of some projects and do more to address local communities’ concerns jointly. Successful responses to such concerns would further enhance the basis of Argentina and China’s energy-focused adaptative partnership.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Economy, Business, Investment, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

473. Non-Consensual Intimate Image Distribution: The Legal Landscape in Kenya, Chile and South Africa

Author:: Michelle Bordachar, Nonhlanhla Chanza, Kailee Hilt, Carlos Lara, Emma Monteiro, and Grace Mutung'u
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The non-consensual distribution of intimate images, colloquially referred to as “revenge pornography” or “image-based sexual abuse,” is an unforgiving reality that continues to plague the lives of many within the current digital landscape. It alludes to the non-consensual distribution of photos or videos depicting nudity, partial nudity or sexually explicit acts. This paper provides an overview of the state of the law, both existing and proposed, in three countries in the Global South — Kenya, Chile and South Africa — as it relates to the non-consensual distribution of intimate images. It was prepared under the overall coordination of CIGI’s Kailee Hilt and Emma Monteiro, who also wrote the introduction and conclusion. The three case studies were written by leading experts from Kenya, Chile and South Africa. The authors discuss current and proposed legislation in response to non-consensual intimate image distribution, while also sharing recommendations for further action to address this growing form of gender-based violence within the digital sphere. On June 24, 2021, CIGI held a panel discussion on this topic moderated by Ruhiya Seward, senior program officer at the International Development Research Centre. Grace Mutung’u, Michelle Bordachar and Nonhlanhla Chanza, experts who contributed the case studies in the paper, spoke about this issue as it pertains to Kenya, Chile and South Africa, respectively, and offered recommendations and road maps for further action within the existing landscape.
Topic:: Rule of Law, Sexual Violence, Judiciary, Digital Culture, and Digitization
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, South Africa, South America, and Chile

474. Non-binary TikTokers in Latin America: Sharing Debates and Circumventing Censorship

Author:: Florencia Goldsman
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: This paper presents the findings of a research project carried out focusing on the #nonbinary community on TikTok in Latin America. The project was interested in exploring how gender violence and censorship impact their content in this space. A semantic analysis of their posts seeks to establish some topics that appear to be the main issues for individuals who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer or questioning and other sexualities on this platform. The findings suggest that they use the platform in different ways to avoid censorship and reinforce the search for freedom of expression online. On November 25, 2021, join CIGI for a virtual discussion, Gender-Based Censorship: The Silencing of Voices in Digital Spaces, moderated by Suzie Dunn and featuring the paper’s author, Florencia Goldsman.
Topic:: Social Media, LGBT+, Censorship, Identity, and TikTok
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

475. Lithium Mining in Argentina Threatens Local Communities

Author:: María Félix Herrera
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In Puna, companies extracting lithium also drain the limited water supply for Guayatayoc communities dependent on groundwater.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Mining, Lithium, and Extractive Industries
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

476. Women's Rights and Democratic Transitions: A Comparative Study of Pakistan, Chile, and South Africa

Author:: Abida Bano
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: Democratization provides women an opportunity to represent their interests/issues effectively. Institutional change of democratic transition proves women's movement's best chance to push for gender-sensitive policy outcomes. This case study critically examines three selected democratic transitions' workings and assesses the cross-cases variation in women's gendered outcomes (South Africa, Chile, and Pakistan). The research questions state as "how and why did women's movements perform differently in achieving gendered policy outcomes in the democratic transitions?” Engaging comparative framework and the qualitative approach, the study shows that the socio-political context, historical legacies, and party alliances have played vital role in varying gendered outcomes.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Social Movement, Women, and Collective Action
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Africa, South Asia, South Africa, South America, and Chile

477. Taking Stock of the Thirty Years of Mercosur

Author:: Leonardo Granato
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Over its thirty-year existence, Mercosur has experienced several changes, which refer to the models of open regionalism and multidimensional regionalism. Based on this argument, we seek to present, in this work, some interpretative notes, in a historical and institutional perspective, in order to provide subsidies for a balance of the bloc, in its three decades of operation. Focusing on the internal institutional dynamics of Mercosul and using bibliographic and documentary research, this paper discusses the integration models adopted and the main measures associated with the respective models along the bloc’s trajectory. Its conclusion points out to the current trend of resuming open regionalism in the midst of Mercosur´s precarious condition.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: South America

478. National Defense and Development: Dialogues Between the Meaning of Helio Jaguaribe's "Autonomy" Concept And the National Strategy of Defense

Author:: Pedro Nogueira de Gama
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: In his studies on development, international relations and national defense issues, political scientist Hélio Jaguaribe reflected on Brazil’s “autonomy” since the country is inserted in the interstate capitalist system. First approved in 2008, the National Defense Strategy was created with the aim of promoting a modernization of the Brazilian defense structure. This article proposes to understand the meanings of “autonomy” in the strategic thinking of Jaguaribe. In addition, it presents a potential dialogue between his formulations and the guidelines of the National Defense Strategy in its different versions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Capitalism, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

479. The Reform of the Brazilian Anti-Dumping Regime: A Partial Review of the Determinants and the Implications of Degree 8,058/2013

Author:: Rafael Pentiado Poerschke, Helio Henkin, and Ricardo Dias da Silva
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This study considers the development and reform of the anti-dumping regime in Brazil as a ratification example of the multilateral trading system proposed by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Brazil's history of leadership in the WTO Rounds, as well as its emergence among users of temporary barriers illustrates the fact that developing countries participate, with some success, in the endorsement and strengthening of the multilateral system itself. Using the WTO Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) as a model for its own regulatory framework, this practice ensures that domestic legislation will have greater compliance to international obligations and avoid constraints via the Dispute Settlement Body. Finally, the case of Decree 8,058/2013 highlighted the importance that specialized agents in the middle management of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC) have in the management and improvement of the Brazilian public policy.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

480. A Zone of Twilight? Peace and Conflict in Latin America and the United Nations

Author:: Sezai Özçelik
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This paper aims to explain the shift in Latin America’s level of conflict and internal violence relative to other regions in the world. It examines a single regional subsystem, Latin America within the framework of conflict and peace as well as the role of the United Nations. First, it aims to shed lights on main transformations and changes in terms of political, economic, social and cultural issues in Latin America. Second, the concept of the zone of peace is examined within the context of Latin America. The main activities of the United Nations in relation to conflict and peace are investigated in the third section. In conclusion, it underlines the lessons learned from conflict and peace processes in Latin America.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

481. Colombian Military Transformation: Strategic Reality and Overcoming Resistances

Author:: Victor M. Mijares and Paula Alejandra Gonzalez
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: After the signing of peace in Colombia, attention has been directed to the difficult process of implementing the agreements. This complex scenario has downplayed the problem of Colombian military transformation. The basis of that transformation, the Damasco doctrine, the, has encountered resistance within the Colombian Military Forces. Through the application of a process tracing method, we infer that there is a non-linear process, but in progress towards the fulfillment of the objectives of the doctrine. Thus, we identify three drivers that are making this transformation progress: a renewed confrontation with Venezuela; the changing nature of the domestic conflict; and the Colombia’s NATO global partner status.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Training
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

482. Defense Expenditure and Strategic Capabilities: Dissimilarities Among South American Countries

Author:: Angela Nogueira Neves and Tassio Franchi
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: We take into account that interpretations of security complexes, traditions of long peace, and violent peace do not fully explain how South American countries are organized regarding Defense. Given those, we ran a cluster analysis with data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and Military Balance report with economic defense expenditure and capabilities investment from South American countries to identify how they are organized, determining those that are most similar to each other (which would form complexes) and how they differ from the others (dissimilarities). The results showed four different clusters: the first formed by Chile, Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia; the second by Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay; the third only by the Guyana; and the fourth, formed only by Uruguay. We interpreted these clusters considering the history of conflicts, current countries threats and treaties.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: South America

483. Understanding Political and Social Unrest in Bolivia

Author:: Juan Esteban Mosquera
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Since 2019, Bolivia has been in a state of political turmoil. Accusations of election fraud during the presidential election that year led to the resignation of longtime President Evo Morales. This event motivated many Bolivians, including supporters of Morales’ party, the left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS), to demand more transparency from both government institutions and political parties. As MAS has returned to power with the election of President Luis Arce in 2020, members and supporters of the party have demonstrated to call for more open political processes. Recent mobilization has centered on the selection process for municipal candidates amid questions over Morales’ continued control of the party. Aggravating the political unrest, Bolivia now faces an unprecedented economic crisis amplified by the coronavirus pandemic (Societe Generale, 31 October 2020). In the midst of political and economic tensions, municipal elections were carried out on 7 March 2021. Preliminary pool results indicate that MAS candidates are behind in at least 10 large cities (El Deber, 8 March 2021). Though it will take weeks to see official results for different levels of the government, the outcome will have significant repercussions for Bolivia’s political stability in the coming years.
Topic:: Elections, Demonstrations, Civil Unrest, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

484. Political Instability and Demonstration Trends in Peru

Author:: Bhavani Castro and Juan Esteban Mosquera
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In recent years, Peru has been through multiple political crises, earning a reputation in Latin America for its unstable politics. Now the country is approaching the first round of a presidential election scheduled for 11 April 2021 and, with 18 candidates running for the position, the latest polls indicate an uncertain outcome. Five candidates are tied and a quarter of the electorate remains undecided on who to vote for (El País, 4 April 2021). This report reviews demonstration trends in Peru from 2018 to 2021. ACLED data show that increased political instability led to a significant spike in the number of demonstration events in 2020 (see figure below). The population’s growing dissatisfaction with enduring government corruption and an economic crisis exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic have contributed to the rise in demonstrations. Demonstrations involving farmers have likewise increased during the pandemic period in response to legislation that they view as adversely affecting their business. The outcome of the presidential election will impact the trajectory of these trends in the coming years.
Topic:: Elections, Demonstrations, Civil Unrest, and Instability
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

485. Toxic Conflict: Understanding Venezuela's Economic Collapse

Author:: Juan Carlos Fernández-Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper discusses the causes of Venezuela’s recent economic collapse, the largest in modern Latin American economic history and one of the largest in modern world history outside of wartime. I argue that Venezuela’s economic implosion is a combination of two crises. The first one reflects the standard unraveling of a populist macroeconomic cycle fed by overspending during a resource boom, while the second one reflects the severing of the country’s trade and financial links with the global economy. This severing is the consequence of the decision by political actors to adopt “scorched earth” strategies with large negative aggregate economic spillovers in their fight for power. I argue that the inability of Venezuela’s high-stakes, winner-take-all political system to deal with the large negative 2014–16 trade shock precipitated the change in political strategies and the descent into economically destructive political conflict.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, Democracy, Economic Growth, Conflict, Institutions, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

486. The Space of Utopia: Christians for Socialism in Chile

Author:: Denisa Jashari
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper examines the intellectual production of the Chilean clerical movement, Christians for Socialism (CpS). It does so by contextualizing the emergence of CpS within the Chilean Church’s own transformations in theological practices and in grassroots interactions with workers and the poor. The election of self-declared Marxist Salvador Allende in 1970 inspired a sector of the clergy to rethink both the role of the Church in society and the role of the poor in the nation. I draw on Ernst Bloch’s concept of concrete utopia to argue that in Chile Christians for Socialism not only creatively converged Marxist and religious thinking but contributed to altering conventional notions of the two. The notion of transcendence and the construction of a “New Man” appealed to the utopian aspects of both religious and Marxist thinking. Moreover, the Chilean CpS had a Latin American impact, as evidenced by the First Latin American Encounter of Christians for Socialism in Santiago, Chile, in 1972, and a world impact, seen in the formation of the Ecumenical Association of Third-World Theologians in 1976. While the legacy of CpS and liberation theology in Chile is far more visible in the grassroots work undertaken during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, an examination of this movement’s theological and ideological productions before the coup is critical to comprehending members’ subsequent material, on-the-ground actions.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Religion, Social Movement, Violence, and Catholic Church
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Chile

487. Tunnels, Bunkers, and Escape Hatches: Defending Economic Rights under Fire

Author:: Jill Carlson
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Possessions, or property, have been reiterated as a human right over the course of the centuries since Locke first wrote — enshrined in everything from the U.S. Declaration of Independence to the United Nations Declaration on Human Rights (1948: 217, A III). Nevertheless, executives, judiciaries, legislative bodies, and central banks around the world have continually broken their social contract on this front: not only failing to defend the natural rights of possessions and property, but often actively harming individuals’ ability to hold value and to freely transfer and exchange assets. Access to a free, open, and functional financial system is a fundamental human right. One that is continuously violated by states and policymakers globally.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Money, and Economic Rights
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

488. Both hard and soft corporate practices construct and secure industrial mining operations: The case of Colombia

Author:: Line Jespersgaard Jakobsen
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This DIIS Working Paper elaborates how local consent to a huge industrial mining complex, including a port and a 150 km railway built in the 1980’s on indigenous arid lands, were created. Showing how both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ security technologies were effective in preparing the complex, constructing the necessary infrastructure and securing the operation, the paper at the same time illustrates how corporate security practices have changed over time in the northern part of Colombia. The paper is based on extended ethnographic fieldwork in La Guajira, Colombia, carried out through 2018 and 2019 as well as historical written documents.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Gas, Capitalism, Inequality, Economy, Conflict, Ethnography, Violence, Investment, Justice, Land Rights, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

489. EU and Mercosur in the Twenty-First Century: Taking Stock of the Economic and Cultural Ties

Author:: Oscar Guinea and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the latest developments in the EU-Mercosur economic relationship and outlines the existing non-economic relationship in order to contextualise the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement and its potential for strengthening common bonds between both regions. Trade between the EU and Mercosur is significant, with both regions holding an important place as large markets for each other’s exports. Currently, trade between the two is dominated by trade in machinery, agriculture, and chemicals. As relevant as these traditional sectors are, their trade is also increasingly supported by trade in services, which unlike trade in traditional agricultural products such as soya, beef and sugar that are either stable or declining, is rapidly increasing. In addition to trade, EU and Mercosur economic bonds are also supported by investments. EU member states hold a large stock of investment in the Mercosur countries while investment flows from Mercosur into the EU are also increasing. This increase has been particularly marked in high-tech sectors like R&D and computer software, emphasising again the changing economic relationship between the EU and Mercosur from traditional to advanced sectors. These trade and investment dynamics are complemented by changes in the EU-Mercosur supply chains. Over the past ten years, the effects one region has on the competitiveness of the other have increased and will continue to do so into the future. The EU is the largest contributor to Mercosur exports, meanwhile Mercosur countries provide the biggest value-added to EU agricultural products. A primary underlying trend found across all dimensions of the EU-Mercosur economic relationship has been the rise of China. In trade, it takes two to tango, and since 2015, it has been China, rather than the EU, that has risen to become Mercosur’s main trading partner. Over the past nine years, the amount of Chinese value-added embedded in Mercosur exports has more than tripled. Moreover, China has ramped up its investment into Mercosur countries, while also receiving increased investments from Mercosur. So, although the EU-Mercosur relationship is changing and bonds have deepened, the EU faces constant competition from China in its relationship with Mercosur. Despite these changes, the EU and Mercosur share a long history of close non-economic relationships. Both have been at the receiving end of large migration flows from each other. This has led to the development of kindred cultures, shared languages, and strong non-economic ties. These similarities have long supported the establishment of deep economic bonds through meaningful collaborations in science and technology, ease of doing business, and provisions for working professionals through various cooperation agreements. However, with the rapidly changing nature of their commercial relationship, these cultural links might not be enough to sustain the economic relationship between the two. These ties need to be complemented by the ratification of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement to nurture their changing relationship.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Trade, South American Union (UNASUR), and Mercosur
Political Geography:: Europe and South America

490. Assessing the Economic, Societal and Cultural Benefits of YouTube in Brazil

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Read how Oxford Economics and YouTube partnered to identify the economic and societal benefits of YouTube in Brazil. Through our rigorous economic modelling and survey capabilities, we found that, in 2020, YouTube contributed R$3.4 billion to Brazil’s GDP and 122,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Our research shows that YouTube fosters significant positive trends for Brazil’s creators in terms of professional goal achievement, business growth, and improved practical skills, as well as serving as a vital resource for teachers and learners
Topic:: Economics, GDP, Social Media, and YouTube
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

491. The Evolution of the Earnings Distribution in a Volatile Economy: Evidence from Argentina

Author:: Andres Blanco, Bernardo Diaz de Astarloa, Andres Drenik, Christian Moser, and Danilo Trupkin
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper studies earnings inequality and dynamics in Argentina between 1996 and 2015. Following the 2001–2002 crisis, the Argentine economy transitioned from a low- to a highinflation regime. At the same time, the number of collective bargaining agreements increased, and minimum wage adjustments became more frequent. We document that this macroeconomic transition was associated with a persistent decrease in the dispersion of real earnings and cyclical movements in higher-order moments of the distribution of earnings innovations. To understand this transition at the micro level, we estimate processes of regular wage adjustments within job spells. As the Argentine economy transitioned from low to high inflation, the monthly frequency of regular wage adjustments almost doubled, while the distribution of changes in regular wages morphed from having a mode close to zero and being positively skewed to having a positive mode and being more symmetric.
Topic:: Income Inequality, Inflation, Volatility, and Wages
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

492. Exports “Brother-boost”: The Tradecreation and Skill-upgrading Effect of Venezuelan Forced Migration on Colombian Manufacturing firms

Author:: Carlo Lombardo and Leonardo Penaloza-Pacheco
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper studies the impact of a massive skilled labor supply shock on Colombian manufacturing firms’ exports, the Venezuelan exodus. We exploit crosssectional and time variability of Venezuelan forced migrants’ settlements in Colombian sub-national areas through an enclave instrumental variables approach to account for the selection of immigrants’ location. Using yearly customs data from 2013 to 2019, we find that the Venezuelan migration improved Colombian manufacturing firms’ export performance, particularly to high-income countries of the OECD located in North America and low-income countries. This effect was stronger for firms that exported less prior to the exodus (2012). Furthermore, using a detailed yearly panel of manufacturing firms from 2013 to 2019 we identify the potential labor market driving mechanism of the trade-creation effect: immigrants lowered exporting firms’ blue-collar wages, and allowed them to upgrade their labor force skill composition, namely firms were able to hire workers more compatible with exports to developed destinations.
Topic:: Manufacturing, Trade, Skills, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

493. The distributional effect of a massive exodus in Latin America and the role of downgrading and regularization

Author:: Carlo Lombardo, Julian Martinez-Correa, Leonardo Penaloza-Pacheco, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The massive displacement of Venezuelan citizens to Colombia is the second most important episode of forced migration in the world. We study the impact of this demographic shock on the Colombian income distribution exploiting the geographical heterogeneity in the intensity of migration. We use RIF regressions in an instrumental variables approach to account for the non-random pattern of location of immigrants. We find that despite the fact that Venezuelan immigrants are relatively skilled compared to native Colombian workers, the exodus had a larger negative effect on the lower tail of the wage distribution, implying increases in income inequality and poverty. We link this result to a sizeable downgrading of (mostly unregistered) Venezuelan recent migrants who work in more routine tasks and earn lower wages than natives with similar characteristics. We also explore a large regularization program for immigrants and find that it was associated to a reduction in the extent of downgrading, and hence, to a mitigation of the unequalizing impact of the exodus.
Topic:: Migration, Income Inequality, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

494. A decomposition method to evaluate the ‘paradox of progress’ with evidence for Argentina

Author:: Javier Alejo, Leonardo Gasparini, Gabriel Montes-Rojas, and Walter Sosa-Escudero
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The ‘paradox of progress’ is an empirical regularity that associates more education with larger income inequality. Two driving and competing factors behind this phenomenon are the convexity of the ‘Mincer equation’ (that links wages and education) and the heterogeneity in its returns, as captured by quantile regressions. We propose a joint least-squares and quantile regression statistical framework to derive a decomposition in order to evaluate the relative contribution of each explanation. The estimators are based on the ‘functional derivative’ approach. We apply the proposed decomposition strategy to the case of Argentina 1992 to 2015.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Inequality, Quantile Regression, and Paradox of Progress
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

495. Introducing MACEDA: new micro-data on an indigenous self-determination conflict

Author:: Pedro Cayul, Alejandro Corvalán, Dany Jaimovich, and Matteo Pazzona
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: This article introduces MACEDA, a micro-level data set on the self-determination (SD) conflict between the Chilean state and the indigenous Mapuche. Although SD disputes are one of the most common conflicts in the world, and indigenous movements represent about 40% of all SD movements, this is the first micro-data focused on an indigenous SD conflict. MACEDA covers the period 1990-2016, including more than 2,600 events collected from local media. As indigenous conflicts are much less violent in terms of casualties, we take a flexible definition of conflict, based on its constituent events, and we discuss the comparability and generalization of our approach. To illustrate the usefulness of these micro-data in the analysis of conflict-related theories, we present a descriptive empirical analysis on the strategies of indigenous resistance, and we discuss how the data can be used in the causal analysis of conflicts.
Topic:: War, Conflict, Peace, Indigenous, Data, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

496. National Development Bank – BNDES and New Development Bank – NDB: a strategic partnership for development and sustainability?

Author:: Maria Elena Rodriguez Ortiz and Paz Andrés Sáenz De Santa María
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:: The precedence afforded in recent decades to environmental issues and to the centrality of a sustainable development agenda has led financial institutions to redefine and redirect their funding as well as their institutional and market arrangements to contribute towards balanced and inclusive development, such as strategies to support national environmental targets that will secure the sustainable development goals. This research will therefore explore some elements that underline the relation between the NDB and the BNDES, the Brazilian Development Bank, which can be considered one of the main agencies implementing funding geared for Brazil, with various joint projects approved.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Partnerships, Banks, Sustainability, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

497. Statelessness and COVID-19

Author:: Jamie Liew
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Throughout the past year and a half, we have witnessed how no person or community on this planet has been untouched by COVID-19. There are countless reports about the differential experiences that various communities face in access to healthcare but also how some public health measures meant to stem its spread may actually be harming particular persons. The pandemic has put into sharp focus the inequities and the gaping fractures in societies all over the world. Moreover, the pandemic has made many realise that we cannot ignore the marginalised in our community given the interconnectedness of our existence. This issue’s critique and commentary part presents a snapshot of how some stateless persons are coping during the pandemic but also features the work of grassroots organisations and emerging researchers. We take a look at five stateless communities: the Rohingya in Bangladesh;1 LGBTQ+ undocumented in Brazil;2those seeking reproductive healthcare in Canada;3 the Bidoon in Kuwait;4 and the stateless in Sabah, Malaysia
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, Malaysia, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Kuwait, Brazil, South America, and North America

498. Surviving Overlapping Precarity in a 'Gigantic Hellhole' A Case Study of Venezuelan LGBTQI+ Asylum Seekers and Undocument Migrant in Brazil amid COVID-19

Author:: Yvonne Su, Tyler Valiquette, and Yuriko Cowper-Smith
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: As COVID-19 infection rates grew exponentially in Latin America, countries closed their borders in an attempt to stop the virus. But such measures have put migrants, asylum seekers and other forcibly displaced persons at more risk. For highly precarious groups, such as Venezuelan migrants and asylum seekers in Brazil, who were already facing a multitude of challenges before the pandemic, COVID-19 is multiplying the threats.
Topic:: LGBT+, Public Health, Asylum, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Venezuela

499. New Avenues for Colombia’s Internationalization: Trade in Tasks

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann and Sebastian Bustos
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: One of the consequences of COVID-19 is the recognition that many tasks can be done from home. But anything that can done remotely, can be done from abroad. Given large salary differences between white collar workers across countries, it would make sense for value chains to try to exploit them. This opens an opportunity for Colombia to further promote its integration into the world global value chains and access new markets. This paper explores the possibility of exporting teleworkable services from Colombia. The goal is to provide useful information to guide strategic interventions to speed-up the development of such service industries in Colombia. We first introduce a definition of teleworkable jobs and describe its occupations and industries along different dimensions. We show that there are many teleworkable jobs in the US, representing a significant share of industry costs. Then, we show that many industries intensive in teleworkable jobs are currently traded across borders. To quantify Colombia’s advantage providing teleworkable services, we study the cost structure of industries and quantify the potential savings in overall costs if the tasks were performed by Colombians. Given Colombia’s current presence and the density around teleworkable industries we can calculate a proxy of the latent advantage in teleworkable services. We propose an index that summarize these dimensions and rank the potential gains from including telework from Colombia in an industry. We end with a set of policy recommendations to move this agenda forward.
Topic:: Human Capital, COVID-19, Labor Market, Skills, and Telework
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

500. Therapeutic Communities in Brazil

Author:: Mauricio Fiore and Taniele Rui
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Spread across Brazil and attaining an unparalleled political force, therapeutic communities are as inescapable in the debate on drug policy as they are complex to define. Although they are not a Brazilian creation, they have been operating in that country for decades, and their dissemination intensified in the 1990s. In 2011, they were officially incorporated into Brazil's Psychosocial Care Network (Rede de Atenção Psicossocial, or RAPS). Since then, therapeutic communities have been at the center of public debates about their regulation; about how they should—or even if they should—be a part of the healthcare system; about the level of supervision to which they should be submitted; about their sources of funding, particularly whether or not they should have access to public funding; and, most importantly, about the quality of the services they offer and the many reports of rights violation that have been made public. However, a well-informed public debate can only flourish if the available information is based on sound evidence. The SSRC’s Drugs, Security and Democracy Program is concerned with the policy relevance of the research projects it supports, and the debate around therapeutic communities in Brazil points to a clear need for impartial research that addresses different cross-cutting aspects of this topic in its various dimensions: legal, regulatory, health, and observance of human rights, among others. It is in this context that we publish this working paper series on therapeutic communities in Brazil. The eight articles that compose this series offer a multidisciplinary view of the topic, expanding and deepening the existing literature and offering powerful contributions to a substantive analysis of therapeutic communities as instruments of public policy. Although they can be read separately, it is as a whole that the strength of the eight articles that make up this series becomes more evident. Even though they offer different perspectives, they are complementary works in—and already essential for—delineating and understanding the phenomenon of therapeutic communities in Brazil.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Domestic Policy, and Community
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS