Political Geography: South America / Publication Year: within 5 Years

1. Russia Leverages Venezuela to Expand Influence in Western Hemisphere

Author:: Sergey Sukhankin
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Moscow has condemned the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro while avoiding substantive retaliation, demonstrating both symbolic solidarity and an unwillingness to jeopardize relations with Washington. The Kremlin’s relationship with Venezuela enables Moscow to project power beyond Cuba in the Western Hemisphere, access Venezuela’s oil reserves, and cultivate an alliance aligned with an anti-Western agenda. Russian energy firms have gained oil stakes and repayment-in-kind options for investments in Venezuela, while joint financial ventures and Venezuela’s crypto experiments have served as testing grounds for sanctions-evasion mechanisms later adapted by Russia. Arms transfers, military-industrial collaboration, and media partnerships through RT, Sputnik, and TeleSur expanded Russia’s military footprint and narrative reach in the Western Hemisphere, though the financial return on Russian investments remains limited and challenged by U.S. pushback.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Oil, Bilateral Relations, and Power Projection
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

2. Venezuela: The Emperor Has No Clothes

Author:: Anil Anand
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:: America’s attack on Venezuela—alongside threats to annex Greenland, incorporate Canada as its 51st state, attack Colombia, or seize control of the Panama Canal—raises existential concerns about America’s commitment to a rule-based order and the legitimacy of the prevailing system for global governance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Order, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

3. Rights-Based Alternatives to Incarceration for Women Lessons from Colombia’s Public Utility Law and the International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Policy

Author:: Claudia Cardona, Julie Hannah, Isabel Pereira-Arana, and Rebecca Schleifer
Publication Date:: 01-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: Women’s incarceration in Colombia is deeply linked to the disproportionate application of drug laws and to the gendered inequalities women face in poor and care demanding contexts. A novel law introduced in 2023 addresses these issues and allows certain women heads of household living in conditions of marginality to exchange prison for public service in freedom. Law 2292 - the Public Utility Law, is an expression of the International Guidelines on Human Rights and Drug Policy, and of normative shifts in Colombia around criminal policy and drug control. This paper documents how Mujeres Libres, the Center for Law, Justice and Society (Dejusticia), and the International Centre for Human Rights and Drug Policy, based at the University of Essex, came together to use the Guidelines as a shared advocacy and technical framework to strengthen the implementation of Law 2292. Aimed at policymakers, judges, public defenders, and civil society in Latin America and beyond, this paper offers a practical account of our implementation efforts: how our partnership formed, how we engaged strategic actors and identified key pathways of change, what tools we produced, what results we are beginning to see, and what should happen next.
Topic:: Human Rights, Women, Inequality, Participation, Drug Policy, and Incarceration Alternatives
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

4. Transgressive Sexual Politics, Structural Homophobia: Wilders and Milei in the Global Populist Radical Right

Author:: Luca Ghislandi
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: This article examines how sexuality operates as a strategic instrument within the ideological configurations of the Populist Radical Right (PRR) by comparing Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Javier Milei in Argentina. Both leaders appear to challenge the PRR’s traditional sexual conservatism: Wilders by portraying himself as a defender of LGBT rights and Milei by performing a libertarian, sexually transgressive persona. Yet, both ultimately reproduce structural forms of homophobia. Drawing on discourse analysis, frame analysis, and process tracing, the paper argues that these seemingly divergent stances constitute localized rearticulations of the PRR’s core triad of nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. Wilders’ “civilizational liberalism” weaponizes queer rights to define Dutch identity against a racialized Muslim “Other,” enacting conditional inclusion and rendering migrant and Muslim queer subjects invisible. Milei’s “libertarian anti-statism” fuses sexual libertarianism with anti-gender politics, using anti-elitist and market-oriented rhetoric to dismantle the state infrastructures that sustain gender and sexual equality, a form of institutional subtraction. Despite opposite performances–Wilders as celibate guardian, Milei as transgressive iconoclast–both mobilize sexuality to police the boundaries of citizenship, legitimize masculine authority, and reinforce exclusionary national imaginaries. The analysis situates these cases within broader global trends in the PRR, demonstrating that contemporary far-right sexual politics no longer depend on explicit moral conservatism but instead on the modernization of homophobia: maintaining inequality through the languages of freedom, tolerance, and civilization.
Topic:: Politics, Populism, Ideology, Radical Right, and Homophobia
Political Geography:: Europe, Argentina, South America, and Netherlands

5. Learning Mandarin, Riding the Metro: China’s Street-Level Presence in Bogotá

Author:: Tony Kirby
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: China’s presence in Colombia is no longer an abstract geopolitical discussion but rather a reality negotiated day by day through construction work, commercial exchange, language learning, and personal relationships.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Construction
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Colombia, and South America

6. An Unbowed Petro Successfully Plays the Diplomat

Author:: Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s positive meeting with Trump stands to benefit not only his coalition, but also the region writ large.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Donald Trump, Regional Politics, and Gustavo Petro
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

7. The Amazon’s Invisible Crisis: How Environmental Crime Is Reshaping Humanitarian Emergencies

Author:: Ludmila Quirós
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As environmental crimes threaten Indigenous communities in the Amazon, their struggles are ignored by a humanitarian system that has rendered such emergencies invisible.
Topic:: Environment, Indigenous, Humanitarian Crisis, and Environmental Crime
Political Geography:: South America and Amazon

8. Milei’s War against the Working Class

Author:: Juan Cruz Ferre and Cecilia Garcilazo
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Argentina’s sweeping labor reform, heavily resisted in the streets, is set to roll back nearly a century of hard-fought rights.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Protests, Labor Rights, Working Class, Javier Milei, and Labor Reform
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

9. Faith and Body: New Battle Over Abortion in Argentina

Author:: Leonel Fernández
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Reproductive rights in Argentina face increased obstacles as the administration of Javier Milei emboldens anti-rights groups and politicians.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Far Right, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, and Javier Milei
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

10. Argentina’s Glaciers are Under Threat

Author:: Olivia Ferrari
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As the country’s far-right government attempts to undo groundbreaking legislation that has protected glaciers for 15 years, activists are fighting back.
Topic:: Climate Change, Far Right, Activism, and Glaciers
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

11. Bolivia into the Abyss

Author:: Angus McNelly
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Fuel shortages, inflation, and political exclusion have triggered a wave of fragmented unrest with no clear movement capable of channeling popular anger.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Inflation, Fossil Fuels, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

12. Impunity and the Permanent Coup in Peru

Author:: George Ygarza
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A massacre in a peripheral area of Peru highlights how the state has built a system that perpetuates impunity.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Impunity, Coup, and Massacre
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

13. When Weak States Win: A Supermodular Game-Theoretic Account of the 2006 Bolivia–Brazil Gas Crisis

Author:: Rodrigo Lyra and Manoel Galdino
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: What if third-party involvement and economic interdependence, often assumed to foster compromise, are precisely what entrench escalation in international negotiations? This paper introduces a supermodular game-theoretic framework to explain how indirect third-party alignment and domestic political constraints can produce strategic complementarities that lock actors into rigid bargaining positions. Drawing on an analytic narrative of the 2006 Bolivia–Brazil gas negotiations, we demonstrate how Venezuela’s political and financial backing emboldened Bolivia to harden its stance, while Brazil’s capacity to respond assertively was neutralized by domestic audience costs, intensified by electoral pressures. The result was not mediation or de-escalation, but a contested equilibrium shaped by positive feedback dynamics. Our findings show that third-party support can strategically reshape payoff structures in ways that incentivize escalation, even under conditions of deep interdependence. This framework advances the study of international negotiations by modelling how escalation can emerge endogenously from the strategic structure of trilateral interactions.
Topic:: Gas, Negotiation, Crisis Management, Game Theory, and Supermodular Game Theory
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Bolivia

14. From alignment to action: Building a durable US-Argentina critical minerals partnership

Author:: Reed Blakemore, Alexis Harmon, and Ignacio Albe
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: For decades, Argentina has been viewed as a mining opportunity that never quite materialized. Now, Argentina’s mining sector is evolving from a speculative frontier to an active, contested space—one where the United States has a clear opportunity. Both countries are confronting different sides of the same challenge. Argentina must translate its mineral wealth into sustained investment and economic growth, while the United States must secure reliable external sources of the materials its economy increasingly depends on. Where these needs intersect, a strategic opportunity is emerging. This report examines Argentina at an inflection point. After decades of policy volatility and stalled development, recent reforms under President Javier Milei, including the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), are beginning to shift investor sentiment. At the same time, Argentina has signaled clear interest in deepening ties with the United States, including through a new bilateral framework that prioritizes critical minerals cooperation. Yet this opportunity is not guaranteed. Infrastructure gaps, energy constraints, and complex provincial dynamics continue to shape project development. Meanwhile, ownership structures and supply chain relationships for lithium and copper are being set now in ways that will influence market alignment for decades. Against this backdrop, Argentina is a critical test case for US economic engagement in regional mineral supply chains. This report outlines how coordinated deployment of US policy and financing tools can help unlock investment while supporting Argentina’s development priorities, including infrastructure expansion and greater local value creation. Ultimately, the case for deeper US–Argentina cooperation is grounded in mutual benefit. For Argentina, it offers a pathway to convert mineral wealth into durable growth. For the United States, it provides access to essential inputs, expanded commercial opportunities, and a chance to demonstrate that its long-term partnerships can deliver.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economic Growth, Mining, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Argentina, South America, North America, and United States of America

15. Colombia Debates “Total Peace” and “Total War”

Author:: Joshua Collins and Daniela Diaz Rangel
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The June 21 presidential runoff will feature starkly different approaches to the growing power of armed and criminal groups.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Elections, Organized Crime, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

16. The Economic Returns of Firms' Political Connections

Author:: Lucas Braga de Melo and Valdemar Pinho Neto
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the economic returns to political connections in Brazilian local elections, focusing not only on traditional campaign donations but also on two novel channels: firms that provide goods or services to candidates during campaigns and firms’ owners affiliated with parties within a coalition running for mayor. Employing regression discontinuity and event study methods around close mayoral races, we find that politically connected firms substantially increase both their likelihood of securing procurement contracts and the value of those contracts, though without corresponding gains in employment or wages. This paper contributes to the literature on political connections by documenting the emergence of indirect political connections and public procurement allocation in a context of weak institutional constraints.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Elections, Business, Procurement, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

17. Mapping mobility and opportunity: How place, gender, and ethnicity shape economic outcomes in Ecuador

Author:: Paolo Brunori, Diego del Pozo, H. Xavier Jara, and Lorena Moreno
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Integrating administrative data from the civil registry, social security, and national censuses, we provide novel evidence on intergenerational income mobility and equality of opportunity among 514,890 formal workers in Ecuador. Our results show substantial intergenerational mobility (rank–rank slope 0.22, elasticity 0.17). Formal employment substantially equalizes mobility: gender differences are minimal, and ethnic disparities are compressed, although ethnic minorities face barriers at the bottom. Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) endogenously identifies 63 spatially homogeneous areas based on intergenerational income elasticity (IGE) and highlights a large degree of variation, with elasticities ranging from 0.09 to 0.23. We complement our analysis with a Roemerian equality of opportunity framework using transformation trees, which shows that equality of opportunity is relatively limited: the worst-off earn 74% of average income, and circumstances predict 33% of total inequality. Our findings suggest that stable formal employment serves as an important equalizing mechanism for intergenerational mobility among formal sector workers, though the persistent ethnic disparities and spatial heterogeneity we observe point to remaining challenges in achieving equality of opportunity across all groups and regions in Ecuador.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Machine Learning, Social Mobility, and Equal Opportunity
Political Geography:: South America and Ecuador

18. The Effects of the One Laptop per Child Program in Peru

Author:: Santiago Cueto, Diether W. Beuermann, Julian Cristia, Ofer Malamud, and Francisco Pardo
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Developing countries have invested heavily in improving educational outcomes by expanding access to technology in schools. For example, between 2006 and 2012, 20 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean distributed nearly 10 million laptops to public school students. One highly publicized initiative was the One Laptop per Child (OLPC) program, which provided personal laptops to students in 40 countries. These types of programs have garnered renewed interest since the COVID-19 pandemic, which started the trend of remote schooling. But experiments have generally not found any short-term effects of these programs on educational outcomes. A large-scale experimental evaluation of the OLPC program in Peru found no effects on academic performance or primary school enrollment 15 months into the program.
Topic:: Development, Education, Science and Technology, and Remote Learning
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

19. Industrial Activity, State Capacity, and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil

Author:: Daniel Da Mata, Mario Dotta, and Edson R. Severnini
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Most developing countries struggle with limited state capacity, which hinders their ability to enforce laws and provide public goods. This limitation affects many aspects of governance, including environmental regulation, and can lead to increased deforestation and land degradation. However, policies that outsource state functions to market players—when public and private incentives are aligned—may partially address these challenges by harnessing the private sector’s reach and efficiency.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Deforestation, Livestock, and State Capacity
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

20. Closing the Gaps in Environmental Crime: A Risk-Based Approach to Tackling Money Laundering in the Timber Supply Chain

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 03-2026
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Deforestation in the Amazon is at a decisive moment. In Brazil alone, 91% of the deforestation recorded between 2023 and 2024 occurred without authorization. The continuation of this process brings the forest closer to a point of no return, with irreversible impacts on climate regulation, the hydrological cycle, biodiversity, and the socioeconomic stability of the region. Despite the magnitude of the crisis, environmental crime still does not occupy a central position in the agenda to combat organized crime, even though it is a large-scale illicit activity enabled by the commission of related crimes such as corruption, document fraud, false statements, and money laundering. The timber sector clearly illustrates this dynamic. Illegal extraction does not occur outside the productive system, but rather through it. Forest management plans are manipulated, authorizations are granted under conflicts of interest, documents are falsified, and illegally extracted timber is inserted into the formal market as if it were a legitimate product. The concealment of the illicit origin of environmental assets constitutes, in practice, a process of laundering. However, the absence of specific typologies and indicators creates a regulatory gap that allows illicit revenues to be integrated into the formal market and the financial system with a low level of detection. In response to this gap, the Igarapé Institute developed this study to strengthen the anti-money laundering system through the creation of techniques aimed at identifying risks of fraud, corruption, and money laundering in the timber sector. The proposed methodologies include indicators organized into three categories: (i) identification of conflicts of interest between public officials and companies in the timber sector; (ii) detection of risks associated with fraud and corruption in the approval of forest management plans; and (iii) analysis of risks linked to the extraction and processing of illegal timber. To test the applicability of these techniques, the Igarapé Institute conducted a pilot study in the state of Pará, which resulted in the identification of 125 public officials, 204 technical professionals responsible for signing forest management plans, 877 individuals, and 116 entities holding exploitation rights over the area, as well as 341 timber processing units with indications of high risk. The exercise demonstrates that it is possible to adapt the anti-money laundering system to the specificities of environmental crime and expand its capacity for prevention and detection.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, Supply Chains, Deforestation, Money Laundering, Enforcement, Logging, Environmental Crime, and Forest Management
Political Geography:: South America and Amazon

21. The geopolitics of critical minerals and implications for Brazil and Canada

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Critical minerals have moved from the margins of industrial policy to the center of geopolitical competition. Cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earths now underpin three strategic imperatives: energy transition, digital infrastructure, and defense readiness. As rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, and as China leverages its dominance in processing, governments are reshaping supply chains through new alliances and targeted policy interventions. Brazil and Canada are central to this emerging mineral order. Both countries combine strong geological endowments with institutional capacity and diplomatic reach. Canada brings diversified extraction, growing midstream ambitions, and a coordinated policy approach reinforced during its 2025 G7 presidency. Brazil brings vast reserves and a more assertive industrial strategy aimed at moving up the value chain and reducing reliance on raw material exports. Yet both face the same structural challenge: transforming resource abundance into lasting economic and geopolitical influence. China’s dominance in processing reflects decades of accumulated technological capability, specialized expertise, and industrial learning—not simply subsidies. Closing this gap requires sustained investment in midstream capacity, particularly in refining, chemical conversion, and skilled labor. This article examines the forces shaping the global minerals landscape, including demand dynamics, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the evolving toolkit of geoeconomic competition. It analyzes how major powers are structuring alliances and how Brazil and Canada are positioning themselves within this shifting architecture—both individually and as potential partners. It concludes by outlining pathways for bilateral and regional cooperation, from building a Canada-Brazil midstream corridor and aligning standards to investing in human capital and strengthening regional infrastructure. The window for action is narrowing: as the institutional framework of mineral security takes shape, countries that move early and strategically will help define the rules of the system rather than adapt to them.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Lithium, Supply Chains, Rare earth elements (REEs), Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Canada, Brazil, and South America

22. Between Borders and States: Illegal Mining and Mercury Trafficking in the Amazon

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 06-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The Amazon is facing a growing set of pressures shaped by the convergence of accelerated environmental degradation, the expansion of illicit economies, and the fragility of state presence. In this context, illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking occupy a central position, both because of the environmental and public health impacts they produce and because of the way they connect the Amazon rainforest to transnational chains of trade, finance, and logistics. The dynamics sustaining this mechanism, however, do not originate in the forest. Mercury, an essential input for gold amalgamation, enters the region through opaque channels, while the extracted gold enters formal circuits of trade, often far from the territories where socio-environmental impacts are concentrated. Although Amazonian borders are often portrayed as obstacles to addressing these illicit activities, a closer analysis offers insights into the governmental actions and institutional limitations that shape the effectiveness and continuity of the Amazonian countries’ responses over time. It is from this perspective that this study is developed. The research examines how mercury trafficking and illegal gold mining are subject to different forms of state intervention — criminal, administrative, regulatory, and territorial — and how these interventions combine, overlap, or become misaligned when illicit dynamics cross national borders. The study is based on two case studies that illustrate, from different perspectives, the challenges of confronting illegal gold mining and mercury trafficking at the Amazonian border regions. The first focuses on the structure and operation of corporate networks involved in the mercury trade. The second examines the institutional architecture centered on the judiciary and state bodies tasked with protecting Indigenous peoples living in voluntary isolation threatened by illegal mining. Finally, the study presents conclusions aimed at strengthening institutional responses to illegal mining and the input trafficking in the Amazon, with emphasis on both coordination among national bodies and regional cooperation.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Governance, Trafficking, Mining, Indigenous, Illicit Financial Flows, Environmental Crime, and Mercury
Political Geography:: South America and Amazon

23. Gender Gaps in Academic Careers Evidence from Economics in Argentina

Author:: María Edo, Mariana Marchionni, Maria Florencia Pinto, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 02-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of gender disparities in academic economics in Argentina, and one of the few systematic studies on this topic in developing countries. Using newly collected and harmonized data from administrative records, university sources, web scraping, and ad-hoc surveys, we document women’s representation across stages of economics education and academic careers. We identify a leaky pipeline: a small gender gap at the undergraduate level widens in later stages, including research activity, faculty positions, publications, rankings, and leadership roles. Exploring potential drivers—such as academic performance, aspirations, exposure to role models, coauthorship, networking, funding, service—we find that women and men exhibit similar performance and comparable aspirations to pursue academic careers, yet their trajectories diverge. Although descriptive, our results suggest that gender disparities are unlikely to reflect differences in ability or preferences, and instead arise from a complex interaction of structural conditions and individual choices.
Topic:: Economics, Developing World, Inequality, Academia, and Gender
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

24. Labor market impacts of an internship program on people with disabilities

Author:: Inés Berniell, Lucila Berniell, Victoria Castillo, Belén Cañuelo, and Dolores de la Mata
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Programa Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabilities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered differencein-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also increases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills.
Topic:: Employment, Disability, Labor Market, and Internships
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

25. Asymmetric Adaptation to Heat and Energy Poverty

Author:: Adriana Camacho, Leonardo Gasparini, Luis Laguinge, Jorge Puig, and Hernan Winkler
Publication Date:: 04-2026
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased electricity consumption.
Topic:: Electricity, Temperature, and Energy Poverty
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

26. Navigating Disagreement: Why Did the Brazilian President Visit the United States?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On May 6, 2026, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traveled to Washington at the invitation of U.S. President Donald Trump, seeking to strengthen bilateral relations. The visit coincided with mounting domestic pressures on the Brazilian president, following a series of successive setbacks—most notably a vote by more than two-thirds of Congress members in favor of legislation proposing to reduce sentences handed down against former President Bolsonaro, despite the presidential veto, and the Senate’s rejection of da Silva’s nominee for the Supreme Court—the first time in decades that a president’s choice for the Court had been turned down. Those reverses gave fresh momentum to Bolsonaro’s son as a leading presidential contender in the 2026 elections, even as da Silva’s capacity to advance his domestic agenda showed signs of strain. Complicating the picture further were a number of unresolved Brazilian-American tensions, set against a turbulent international and regional backdrop marked by escalating U.S.–Chinese competition in Latin America, a dynamic that rendered the visit a practical test of Brazil’s ability to balance its rapprochement with Washington against its commitments to Beijing within the BRICS framework. Against that backdrop, the analysis that follows traces the most significant points of friction in Brazilian-American relations in recent times, examines the motives behind the visit and its anticipated outcomes, and assesses the potential repercussions for the wider region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

27. A Rightward Turn: Domestic and Foreign Policy Implications of De la Espriella’s Rise in Colombia

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2026
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Colombia’s presidential runoff, held on June 21, 2026, resulted in a victory for right-wing candidate Abelardo De la Espriella, who won 49.66% of the vote against 48.70% for left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda, the candidate of the ruling “Historic Pact” coalition. The result came amid an unprecedented degree of political and security polarization and marks a shift to the right after four years of rule under Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president. Barred by the constitution from seeking re-election, Petro had thrown his support behind Cepeda as his successor. De la Espriella had also led the first round of the elections, taking 43.7% of the vote against Cepeda’s 40.9%, a result that set the stage for a direct contest between two political projects with sharply divergent visions on security and the economy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Domestic Policy, Right-Wing Politics, and Abelardo de la Espriella
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

28. Do alternative households improve paid employment outcomes? A comparative analysis of same-sex partnerships in Brazil

Author:: Cicero Braga and James Heintz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper explores the labor market implications of household formation among same-sex married couples in Brazil, comparing them with different-sex married couples and unpartnered individuals. Using data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNADC) from 2016 to 2019, the study provides a descriptive overview of same-sex households and analyzes patterns of partnership formation, racial and educational endogamy/homogamy, and paid employment outcomes. Despite data limitations, findings suggest that same-sex couples may benefit from household formation by adopting alternatives to traditional patriarchal dynamics. Women in same-sex partnerships exhibit greater labor market participation and earnings, while men may experience reduced pressure to conform to traditional breadwinner roles. All married/partnered individuals earn a wage premium, relative to unpartnered individuals, but this premium varies by type of couple, sex, and the partner’s education and employment status. The paper highlights the importance of recognizing diverse household structures to fully understand economic well-being and inequities. Further research on the broader spectrum of "families of choice" is necessary to better capture the economic experiences of the LGBTI community in Brazil.
Topic:: Employment, LGBT+, Economic Inequality, Labor Market, Household, and Gender Roles
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

29. From polarisation to autocratisation: the role of information pollution in Brazil's democratic erosion

Author:: Anita Breuer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This study explores the complex relationship between information pollution, polarisation, and democracy in Brazil, a country that has recently experienced both democratic erosion and a pivotal democratic “U-turn”. Information pollution – the dissemination of false, misleading or harmful information – has become a global challenge, undermining societal peace and demo-cratic stability. In Brazil, these dynamics have been particularly pronounced, reflecting deep-seated socioeconomic inequalities and the impact of disinformation in an increasingly polarised political landscape. Grounded in a holistic analytical framework, this study moves beyond the narrow conception of countering disinformation as a challenge confined to the digital space. By incorporating socio-economic, media, legislative and political contexts into the analysis, it provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors that facilitate the emergence of information pollution. By doing so, the framework also enables the formulation of tailored policy recommendations that consider the distinct characteristics of Brazil’s context, while offering lessons relevant to other countries facing similar challenges. The analysis of the socioeconomic and social context highlights how in Brazil, persisting poverty and inequalities and the digital divide restrict access to diverse information sources, leaving marginalised groups disproportionately vulnerable to disinformation and hate speech. In this environment, hate speech targeting black women and members of the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer (and others) (LGBTQ+) community has been a prominent driver of polarisation, which exacerbates the discrimination and marginalisation of individuals at the intersection of race, gender and sexual orientation. The characteristics of the Brazilian media landscape and information ecosystem further fuelled these dynamics. Highly concentrated media ownership and declining traditional journalism have undermined information diversity and opinion plurality. At the same time, digital platforms have become fertile ground for the spread of polarising narratives, driven by the rise of politainment and political messaging disguised as religious truth by influential evangelical leaders. Within Brazil’s regulatory and institutional context, outdated legislation on internet governance has left significant gaps in the oversight of digital platforms. The implementation of existing transparency legislation is deficient and fragmented. Political interference and the misuse of secrecy laws have further undermined transparency mechanisms. Against this backdrop, state transparency offerings provide an inadequate counterweight to disinformation circulating on digital platforms. The political context has exacerbated these challenges, with cultural and ideological divides exploited by political actors to erode trust in democratic institutions. Disinformation played a central role during the administration of Jair Bolsonaro who pursued a grievance-based mobilisation strategy, amplifying societal divisions by exploiting narratives around corruption, inequality and moral values. This approach triggered a process of affective polarisation, with religious rhetoric playing a significant role in framing political opponents as existential threats to traditional and conservative values. Across all these contexts, vulnerabilities, such as low digital literacy, concentrated media consumption, and societal cleavages, amplify the impact of information pollution. This study finds that information pollution has fuelled affective polarisation, fostering mistrust, hostility, and violence, which in turn has jeopardised key elements of democratic quality, including respect for counterarguments, electoral integrity, institutional checks and balances, and public accountability and lastly support for democracy itself. The findings of this study point to critical entry points for addressing information pollution. At the national level, strengthening Brazil’s transparency regime emerges as a key priority, particularly by making access to public information more inclusive and enhancing the autonomy of institutions tasked with upholding transparency. The modernisation of Brazil’s internet governance framework is equally important, requiring broad based publication consultations and robust mechanisms for platform accountability. To ensure impartiality, authorities tasked with overseeing internet governance must maintain sufficient independence from the executive branch and should feature a cross-sectoral, multi-stakeholder composition, incorporating voices from civil society, academia, technical experts, and the private sector. At the international level, enhancing cross-border collaboration is paramount. The Global Digital Compact adopted in 2024 offers an important foundation for promoting shared technological solutions and fostering multilateral cooperation. Regional organisations in Latin America, such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), also have a critical role to play in harmonising regulations and strengthening digital governance. Brazil’s recent experience illustrates the complex interplay between structural enablers, digital dynamics, and political strategies that drive polarisation and democratic erosion. At the same time, its ability to reverse autocratisation at the ballot box provides valuable lessons for curbing information pollution and fostering democratic resilience worldwide.
Topic:: Polarization, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

30. To Vote or Not to Vote: Venezuelans Face Another Election Choice

Author:: Catherine Ellis
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the shadow of a contested presidential vote, Venezuela’s upcoming regional elections reveal more about power struggles than democratic representation.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Representation, and Voting
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

31. The Reinvention of the Strike: 10 Years of Feminist Uprising in Argentina

Author:: Verónica Gago and Linas Kojala
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: This year marks the 10-year anniversary of the Ni Una Menos movement. Understanding the tensions that mark these moments of intense rearrangements and changes in increasingly militarized capitalism is urgent.
Topic:: Capitalism, Protests, and Labor Strike
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

32. Debates over TPS for Venezuelans Reveal Diasporic Divide

Author:: Francisco Llinas Casas and Erick Moreno Superlano
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The battle over Temporary Protected Status provides a window into the class, racial, and political divisions within the Venezuelan diaspora in the United States.
Topic:: Politics, Race, Diaspora, Class, Immigration Policy, and Temporary Protection Status (TPS)
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

33. Cuerpx en Vela: Travesti Performance Against the Necro-State

Author:: Malú Machuca Rose
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Artist Germa Machuca uses her body as an altar and guiding light to illuminate the connections across anti-trans and anti-Indigenous violence in Peru.
Topic:: Arts, Violence, Indigenous, Transgender, and Travesti
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

34. At the Thresholds: Labor Organizing as Travesti-Trans Formal Workers in Argentina

Author:: Francisco Fernández Romero, Pato Laterra, and Victor Sánchez
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Travesti and trans workers in the formal sector expand imaginaries about the relationship between LGTBQ+ people and work, contributing to broader labor struggles for all of society.
Topic:: Labor Issues, LGBT+, Transgender, and Organizing
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

35. For Trans Men in Colombia, All Cops Are Bastards

Author:: Nikita Dupuis-Vargas Latorre
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Violence against trans men by state forces is widespread—and little studied. The profiling inherent to mandatory military service only aggravates the problem.
Topic:: Violence, LGBT+, Police, Transgender, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

36. Transfeminist Struggles Against Debt and Dispossession

Author:: Lucía Cavallero
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In Argentina, sexual dissidents mobilize transversal alliances to denounce indebtedness as a tool of capitalist displacement and violence.
Topic:: Debt, Capitalism, Displacement, Feminism, Violence, and Transgender
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

37. Colombia's Just Energy Transition

Author:: Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: President Gustavo Petro is leading the way in promoting a fossil fuel phase-out in South America and beyond, but there are challenges and contradictions in Colombia’s actions at home.
Topic:: Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

38. Tren de Aragua: A Gang, Not Terrorist Invaders

Author:: Elliott Young
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to target Venezuelan migrants relies on a false narrative about Tren de Aragua and the Venezuelan state, and sets a dangerous precedent for immigrant rights.
Topic:: Immigration, Deportation, Gangs, and Tren de Aragua
Political Geography:: South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

39. Despite Regional Opposition, a Canadian Company Pursues Mining in Santander

Author:: Lital Khaikin
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of rifts over securitization issues and calls for conservation, Aris Mining intends to launch the Soto Norte mine in Santander, Colombia, in 2029.
Topic:: Environment, Mining, Conservation, and Securitization
Political Geography:: Canada, Colombia, and South America

40. In the Face of Violence, Catatumbo’s Communities Call for Solidarity

Author:: Priscyll Anctil Avoine and Adriana Pérez-Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Failed peace negotiations and the battle for control over valuable territory have produced an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.
Topic:: Solidarity, Negotiation, Humanitarian Crisis, and FARC
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Catatumbo

41. The Forgotten Victims: Orphans of Femicide in Colombia

Author:: Anna Abraham, Tony Kirby, and David García
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of the femicide crisis in Colombia, a second crisis persists: hundreds of children are left orphaned each year and without support from the state.
Topic:: Crime, Children, Gender Based Violence, Femicide, and Orphans
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

42. The Disappearance of a Mapuche Elder is an Indictment of Chile’s “Progressive” Government

Author:: Carole Concha Bell
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Activists link the disappearance of land defender Julia Chuñil to the state’s militarization of the region and its deep ties to rapacious forestry companies.
Topic:: Disappearance, Land Rights, Indigenous, Deforestation, and Mapuche
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

43. Mass Grave in Medellín Tourist Hotspot Sparks War of Words—and Walls

Author:: Joshua Collins
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The discovery in historic neighborhood Comuna 13, a neighborhood known for its art as much as its dark past, has reignited the debate over paramilitarism in the country.
Topic:: Arts, Tourism, Memory, Paramilitary, and Mass Grave
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Medellín

44. A New Mall for the Village: How Carbon Credits Impact Indigenous People in Guyana

Author:: Clarissa Levy and Agência Pública
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In 2022, Guyana became the first country in the world to issue carbon credits on a national scale. Indigenous people say they were excluded from the negotiations and criticize the loss of autonomy in their territories.
Topic:: Negotiation, Indigenous, Autonomy, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Credits
Political Geography:: South America and Guyana

45. The U.S. Is Helping Brazilian Police Kill

Author:: Joseph Bouchard
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Brazil’s highly militarized policing disproportionately impacts poor and racialized communities. By providing funding and training, the United States has helped exacerbate the crisis.
Topic:: Training, Police, Militarization, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

46. Explosive Report and Exposé on Colombia’s Magdalena Medio Oil Industry

Author:: Yago Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: After a two-year investigation, a comprehensive report, BBC documentary, and whistleblower dossier reveal alleged widespread contamination, health impacts, and surveillance by Colombia’s state-owned Ecopetrol.
Topic:: Oil, Surveillance, Journalism, Investigations, State-Owned Enterprises, and Contamination
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

47. "Memory Moves Us": Argentines Take to the Streets for 24M

Author:: Virginia Tognola
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of Javier Milei’s deepening attack on civil rights, massive mobilizations in Argentina honor the victims of state terrorism on the Day of Remembrance for Truth and Justice.
Topic:: Protests, Memory, Civil Rights, Truth and Reconciliation, and Javier Milei
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

48. Destierro y Desmar: Embroidering Experiences of Internal Migration and Forced Displacement

Author:: Morgan Londoño Marín
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: For transmasculine activists uprooted from the lands and waters they called home, embroidery and poetry become practices for expressing nostalgia and building community in Bogotá.
Topic:: Arts, LGBT+, Community, Transgender, Forced Displacement, and Embroidery
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

49. Cuerpos Furiosos: Travesti-Trans Politics for Counterrevolutionary Times

Author:: Cole Rizki
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Spring 2025 issue of the NACLA Report explores travesti-trans politics across the Americas, an antifascist and transversal politics with the power to reshape our world.
Topic:: Politics, Transgender, Antifascism, and Travesti
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Central America

50. Bodies on Fire: Toloposungo’s Trans-Marika Abolitionist Performance

Author:: Cecilia Azar
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In Colombia, a trans-marika vogue collective takes to the streets to denounce state violence and call for police abolition.
Topic:: Culture, State Violence, Transgender, and Abolitionism
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

51. Anti-Racist Transfeminism: Against Adjustment and the Plundering of Rights

Author:: Chana Mamani
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the face of discriminatory narratives and laws in Argentina, activists advocate for anti-racist, transfeminist initiatives during this year’s International Women’s Day.
Topic:: Feminism, Racism, Activism, and Transfeminism
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

52. Brazil’s Student Movement Resists the Far Right, at Home and Abroad

Author:: Alice Taylor
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: In the days after the Trump inauguration, Brazilian students gathered at the largest student congress in Latin America to debate the future of left resistance.
Topic:: Donald Trump, Leftist Politics, Students, and Activism
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Latin America

53. Rio’s Samba Parade Spotlights Trans Rights

Author:: Constance Malleret
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: The Tuiuiti samba school uplifts trans identities and highlights the political dimensions of Brazil’s Carnival celebrations.
Topic:: Politics, Dance, Transgender, and Carnival
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

54. Countering the Digital Silk Road: Brazil

Author:: Ruby Scanlon and Bill Drexel
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Digital Silk Road (DSR), China’s ambitious initiative to shape critical digital infrastructure around the world to advance its geopolitical interests and technology leadership. A decade after its launch, digital infrastructure and emerging technologies have only grown more vital and contested as demand for connectivity, digital services, and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) expand. Against this backdrop, the DSR has become increasingly central to China’s broader strategy to challenge and ultimately supplant the U.S.-led digital order, and in doing so, reap potentially vast security, economic, and intelligence advantages. To assess the DSR’s impact 10 years after its inception—and explore how the United States and its allies can offer a more compelling and coherent alternative—the CNAS Technology and National Security team has undertaken a major research project that produces in-depth case studies of four diverse and geostrategically critical nations—Indonesia, Brazil, Kenya, and Saudi Arabia—and culminates in a full-length report. The second case study focuses on Brazil. For the study, researchers from the CNAS Technology and National Security team spent a week in the country interviewing local policymakers, journalists, technology firms, civil society, and academics, along with U.S. diplomats, development experts, and companies. Drawing on these interviews and desk research, this case study seeks to shed light on the current dynamics and stakes of the U.S.-China competition to shape Brazil’s digital ecosystem.
Topic:: National Security, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Silk Road (DSR)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

55. From Soft Balancing to Bandwagoning: Contemporary Brazil–Us Relations in South America

Author:: Augusto Rinaldi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Using the soft balancing concept and a comparative methodology, I analyze the diplomatic strategies mobilized by Brazil towards the US in South America from 2003 to 2022. The empirical results suggest that in the last two decades, Brazil moved away from the role of “soft balancer” during Lula’s and Rousseff’s mandates (2003–2016) to a “tactical convergence” in Temer's (2016–2018) to “bandwagoning” in Bolsonaro's (2019–2022). The main drivers for these different strategies are domestic and regional changes. Approaching this thematic contributes to a better understanding of Brazilian regional priorities and abilities to deal with the US in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Competitive Balance, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

56. Analysis of the Organizational Performance of a Strategic Defense Company in Brazil: Conceptions from the Perspective of Defense Studies in Europe

Author:: Marcus Vinicius Goncalves da Silva
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This study proposes, based on scientific production carried out in Europe, the adaptation of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) method by Kaplan and Norton, for the analysis of the performance of Brazilian Strategic Defense Companies (SDC). The investigation is carried out in a comparative way, in two stages. In the first one, a bibliometric research was carried out to identify the characteristics of the European Defense Industrial Base. In the second stage of the research, the BSC-Defense indicators, developed based on the literature found, were empirically analyzed in a Strategic Defense Company in Brazil. The results indicate that the BSC-Defense instrument can serve as a guiding element for Strategic Defense Companies, as it includes an integrated and dynamic set of capabilities, processes and activities related to the strategic performance of the organization.
Topic:: Defense Industry, Performance Evaluation, and Strategic Defense Companies (SDC)
Political Geography:: Europe, Brazil, and South America

57. What makes a legislator promote or thwart trade liberalization in developing democracies?

Author:: Simón Lodato, Andrés Dockendorff Dockendorff, and Dorotea López
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This paper investigates how ideological polarization and constituency factors influence legislators’ voting behaviour on Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). We explore the Chilean case, where trade policy has recently become highly politicized, to test three key relationships. First, we argue that right-wing legislators are more likely to champion FTAs when trade becomes a highly politicized issue, as the ratification of the CPTPP shows. Conversely, when trade is less politically salient, right-wing legislators are less likely to vote favourably for FTAs. Second, legislators representing regions with a high concentration of workers in tradable sectors are less likely to support trade liberalization, as it can put jobs at risk in their districts. Our results show that ideology explains legislators’ support to FTAs but only when the trade policy is politicized. Also, the probability of voting in favour of FTAs decreases as the proportion of workers in tradable sectors within the region increases. From a comparative perspective, the results highlight how the effect of politicization, observed mainly in European settings, is generalizable to a different set up: a presidential developing democracy.
Topic:: Ideology, Trade Liberalization, Trade Policy, Politicization, Legislators, and Free Trade Agreements
Political Geography:: South America and Chile

58. The Rise and Decline of Brazil as a Peacekeeper

Author:: Geraldine Rosas Duarte, Letícia Carvalho, and Dawisson Belem Lopes
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The article investigates the trajectory and transformations of Brazil’s involvement in UN peacekeeping operations, seeking to explain the recent hesitation to assume a leadership role in contrast to previous periods, particularly during the two initial presidential terms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2011). It highlights the influence of international and domestic factors on Brazil’s new stance, including changes in the nature of UN peacekeeping missions and the impact of the deep politico-economic crisis Brazil experienced between 2013 and 2022. The shifts in foreign policy during the governments of Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro resulted in a more isolationist view and a significant reduction in Brazil’s participation in peacekeeping operations. The article concludes by analyzing the need for a strategic reassessment by Brazil of the dynamics of peacekeeping operations and the domestic challenges faced by the new Lula da Silva government to realign its future participation with its national interests and capabilities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

59. Trade with Colombia is big business for US exporters—amid growing Chinese influence in Latin America

Author:: Geoff Ramsey and Enrique Millán-Mejía
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Colombia and the United States have achieved a close, mutually beneficial partnership over several decades on migration, security, counternarcotics, and commerce—with the US trade surplus with Colombia totaling $1.3 billion in 2024. The Colombian market is particularly important for US agricultural producers. Thanks to the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA), Colombia is the top destination for US agricultural exports in South America and the third main destination in the Western Hemisphere. The United States is still Colombia’s largest trading partner in South America—with $36.7 billion in two-way trade in 2024—but January data showed Chinese products leading over US imports for the month. The TPA promotes both reciprocal trade and US influence; interpretative improvements to previously agreed-upon matters are possible,
Topic:: Economy, Business, Tariffs, Exports, Trade, and International Markets
Political Geography:: China, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and United States of America

60. Energy poverty on the flip side of energy subsidies

Author:: Julian Puig and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between energy subsidies and energy poverty (EP). Understanding this relationship is important because subsidies are often justified from an equity perspective to protect the most vulnerable households. Argentina, which has subsidized residential energy consumption since the early 2000s, is used as the case study. Since then, the energy subsidy policy has experienced two well-defined phases: massive and universal subsidies until 2015, followed by an attempt at reduction and targeting. This context, combined with notable regional disparities -including variations in income levels, climatic conditions, energy prices, and residential energy consumption patterns (e.g., electricity vs. piped gas)- makes this case study particularly compelling. EP is analyzed both unidimensionally and multidimensionally. Under both measures, EP follows a U-shaped pattern that reflects the phases of energy subsidies: a significant decrease between 2005 and 2013, followed by a considerable increase by 2018. The paper also highlights the key role of regional disparities which is crucial for interpreting the results beyond the Argentine case. Based on the findings, the paper contributes with globally relevant insights on the link between energy subsidy policies and EP.
Topic:: Poverty, Gas, Electricity, Subsidies, and Energy
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

61. Untrustworthy Authorities and Complicit Bankers: Unraveling Monetary Distrust in Argentina

Author:: Guadalupe Moreno
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: Money, capitalist market societies’ paramount contract, relies on the belief in its enduring value. However, we still know surprisingly little about the social foundations that sustain that belief. How is our collective trust in the enduring value of money socially built, and what happens if people lose such trust? What if a society convinces itself that policymakers cannot guarantee that the value of money will persist over time? In this paper, I use Argentina as a monetary laboratory to study how almost eighty uninterrupted years of high inflation and successive currency crises led to a social trauma that crystalized in the emergence of a distrust narrative: a strong popular belief that neither the state nor the local financial system will be able to preserve the value of the national currency or the worth of savings over time. By analyzing the production and reproduction of this narrative and its long-lasting effects on the Argentine economy, I show how rooted distrust in a currency fosters a myriad of practices aimed at protecting savings, which impose severe limits on monetary governance. I emphasize that when state authorities lose control of collective expectations and negative monetary imaginaries take off, a vicious cycle unfolds in which instability, inflation, and devaluation reinforce each other.
Topic:: Civil Society, Financial Crisis, Governance, Central Bank, Money, and Trust
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

62. Uncertainty in Caracas: What Awaits Venezuela's Maduro in his Third Term?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On January 10, 2025, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term. The opposition condemned this event as a "coup," accusing Maduro of election fraud in connection with the presidential elections held on July 28, 2024. In response, the government organized a rally in support of Maduro in the capital. Meanwhile, the opposition staged a protest led by Maria Corina Machado, who made her first public appearance since August 2024.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, Protests, Organized Crime, Social Unrest, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

63. ‘Brazil is a Christian and Conservative Country with Family as its Foundation’: The Role of Defender of the Faith in Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Mónica Salomón and Luis Gustavo de Araújo Zimmer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: : Foreign policy analysts have used role theory for decades. Several recent studies have resorted to it to describe and explain Brazilian foreign policy. By complementing current efforts that seek to account for the restructuring of Brazil’s international identity undertaken by the Bolsonaro government, this article focuses on a role relatively neglected by literature, i.e., the one Holsti called ‘defender of the faith.’ In the case of Bolsonaro’s foreign policy, the faith to be defended is that of ‘Judeo-Christian civilisation’ values in its most conservative interpretation. After identifying this role in statements by official representatives of Brazilian foreign policy, we examine both its primary internal sources (the political actors identified with religious-conservative agendas in the National Congress) and its external sources (the ‘conservative transnational’ of governments close to Bolsonaro’s), to then illustrate its performance through two sets of initiatives representing drastic changes in Brazilian diplomatic positions: the support to Israel in the voting of UN’s resolutions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the shift from progressive to conservative positions in discussions on gender rights in multilateral venues.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Gender, Role Theory, and Ultraconservatism
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

64. The Consolidation of Liberal Democracy in Brazil: Encountering Global, Regional, and Local Representations

Author:: Daniela Vieria Secches
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The globally expanded international society established a standard of statehood as central criteria for its membership. The end of the Cold War witnessed an ascendant, albeit contested, liberal democracy as a preferred regime in global imaginaries. Within this context, the re-democratization processes experienced in Latin America amid profound international systemic reorientations implied the renegotiation of regional and local social imaginaries, as, for example, in the Brazilian case. In this article, we seek to discuss Brazil’s selective and creative adaptation in the space of overlaps between global, regional, and local social imaginaries about the government regime since the 1990s. Through a theoretical-empirical approach based on the discussion about the construction of shared understandings between international and domestic social spaces, we opted for a pragmatic theoretical foundation with the support of the English School of International Relations, critical philosophy, and the sociology of Bourdieu to study the Brazilian case. By focusing on the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government, it is proposed to qualitatively analyse documents from the period that problematize the country’s external insertion based on the interaction with the global and the regional social imaginaries about liberal democracy, with the support of a bibliographical review grounded on specialized secondary sources
Topic:: Democracy, Social Imaginary, Domestic Politics, and International Society
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and South America

65. Causal Explanation in Brazilian International Relations

Author:: Enzo Lenine
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: How do Brazilian IR scholars tailor causal explanations in their research? Searching for causes has become paramount to the scientific endeavour in the social sciences, and in recent years the lexicon of causality has come under scrutiny, with many scholars revising the standard Humean and covering law approaches to cause. Far from being consensual, current philosophical and meta-theoretical debates in IR reveal a rather kaleidoscopical picture of causation. However, Brazilian IR scholars seem to remain unfamiliar about what it means to advance causal claims. In this paper, I have a twofold goal: to advance the causal talk by rehearsing recent meta-theoretical debates on causality; and to examine the ways Brazilian IR scholars in the subfield of Brazilian foreign policy analysis (BFPA) tailor causal explanations. To achieve the latter, I perform a cartography of the articles published in five Brazilian top-tier journals in the discipline – Brazilian Political Science Review, Dados, Contexto Internacional, Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais and Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional – from 2018 through 2022. I conclude that BFPA research is founded primarily in non-Humean understandings of causality, but Brazilian scholars might benefit from further awareness on the various meanings of causal explanation.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Relations Theory, and Causality
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

66. The Crises and Agony of International Development Cooperation: Consequences for Brazilian Foreign Policy

Author:: Pietro Carlos De Souza Rodrigues and Patricia Andrade de Oliveira Silva
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: At the beginning of this century, International Development Cooperation (IDC) began to occupy a central position in Brazil’s international status. Political and social transformations created conditions for Brazil to begin acting as a relevant protagonist in international projects, especially in developing nations, through South-South Cooperation (SSC). However, a succession of crises after 2011 and the emergence of ideas opposed to cooperation during the Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022) altered the conditions that sustained IDC as part of Brazilian foreign policy. In this article, we will identify the political and economic conditions that ensured (1) the structuring and (2) the growth of Brazilian cooperation up until 2011, and we will argue that the loss of these conditions resulted in IDC’s (3) decline, leading to (4) its agony beginning in 2019. Finally, we will evaluate several consequences of the cooperation crisis based on an evaluation of Brazilian foreign policy in the global health agenda, and its commercial relationship with African nations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, Global South, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

67. Hidden on the Stage: Racism and Brazilian Foreign Policy in the FESMAN ’66

Author:: João Montenegro Pires
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs organized the country’s contributions in the World Festival of Black Arts (FESMAN, Festival Mundial das Artes Negras) in Senegal in 1966 so as to demonstrate the exceptionality of racial relations in Brazil, expressed under the label of ‘racial democracy.’ The importance attributed to reaffirming Brazilian exceptionality was related to a strategic selectivity of the State aimed at privileging the continuous reconstitution of racism, intrinsically necessary to the reproduction of capital in general and, in particular, in the Brazilian social formation. The case illustrates how racial democracy represented a discursive reference that allowed the State to simultaneously organize the power block and disorganize the opposition from the dominated classes. The Brazilian racial fantasy taken to FESMAN covered up material inequality, made it challenging to identify Afro-Brazilians as a group, and hindered the formation of transnational ties with Pan-Africanism. The current article intends to enrich theoretical reflection on the reasons and ways racism affects the content of Brazilian foreign policy
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Pan-Africanism, Marxism, and State Theory
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

68. Bolsonaro’s Foreign Policy in Laerte Coutinho’s Cartoons

Author:: Gelson Fonseca Júnior and Cristine Koehler Zanella
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article examines former President Jair Bolsonaro’s foreign policy through Laerte Coutinho’s cartoons, published in the Folha de São Paulo newspaper, contextualised within Brazilian opening speeches at the UN General Assembly’s Annual Debate from 2019 to 2021. The work is epistemologically tied to the aesthetic turn in International Relations, broadly in line with a post-structuralist approach and uses iconographic analysis (including the tools of particular meanings and each cartoon’s situational context) and iconological interpretation methods (applying area concepts to explain foreign policy elements revealed through the sensitivity of the chosen works). Consequently, we identified that the cartoons effectively convey former President Bolsonaro’s approach to Brazilian foreign policy (BFP). It is an alternative epistemological and methodological approach to understanding international affairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Jair Bolsonaro, Iconography, Cartoons, and Laerte Coutinho
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

69. Peeking Behind the Arches: An Examination of Diplomats’ Party Affiliations and Candidacies in Brazil

Author:: Vinicius Silva Santos
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article explores the intricate dynamics between Brazilian diplomats and political parties within the realm of foreign policy. Our central research problem is to uncover how the interplay of the party system’s structure, the attributes and ideologies of political parties, and the aspirations of bureaucrats collectively influence the extent of diplomats’ involvement in formal party-political activities. Despite the growing attention to partisanship in Brazilian foreign policy debate, empirical research and methodological approaches to measure the concept are limited. The construct validity of the term is often confused with ideologization and politicization. Moreover, the involvement of Brazilian bureaucrats in party politics lacks comprehensive investigation. To address these gaps, this study examines the relationship between diplomats and political parties, uncovering its multifaceted dimensions and implications. Using a novel data source, we explore diplomats’ affiliations and candidacies, shedding light on interaction patterns during the Nova República period. We present a set of hypotheses investigating the association between diplomats’ party affiliations and their interactions with a) party ideologies (H1) and b) professional ambitions, delineated into i) intra-bureaucratic advantages (H2.1) and ii) political career aspirations (H2.2). By employing a mixed methods approach, incorporating thematic content analysis, descriptive statistics, and hypothesis testing, we aggregated evidence that substantiates hypotheses H1 and H2.2. However, in the case of H2.1, the findings proved inconclusive, prompting the need for further exploration into the topic.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Affiliation, Political Parties, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

70. ‘Maximum pressure’ sanctions on Venezuela help US adversaries, hurt Venezuelans

Author:: William Tobin
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The “maximum pressure” strategy employed from 2018 to 2022 against the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela did not serve US interests. Stringent oil sanctions imposed on Venezuela forced the retreat of Western oil firms from the country, principally benefitting adversaries. During the maximum pressure campaign, Venezuela’s oil production was rerouted to China at discounted prices, Iran supplied the diluent Venezuela required for oil production, and Russian investors became more critical amid a dearth on Western investment. A democratic transition remained elusive while repression and human rights violations continued. Venezuelans suffered, US adversaries expanded their influence, and Maduro remained. The current system of issuing specific licenses for Western oil producers to operate in Venezuela has yielded superior results. The benefits of this policy have been the following: Venezuelan oil exports have been diverted to friendly nations. Treasury has increased visibility on all oil-related transactions, decreasing the clandestine shipment of oil through shadow tanker fleets operated by the Chinese defense establishment, Iran, or PDVSA. Compensation to the regime is limited to taxes and royalties, which are required by Venezuelan law. The system has enabled the return or reemployment of qualified engineers and technicians to restore production from degraded oilfield infrastructure. The incoming US administration should prioritize inflicting more harm on the regime and its enablers than the Venezuelan people—or US interests. To do so, sanctions must be linked to clear objectives. An uncalibrated reapplication of maximum pressure would cede influence to China, Russia, and Iran, while doing little to loosen the regime’s grip on power. Instead, the existing system of specific licenses should be maintained and expanded. To punish Maduro, the administration should continue to target individuals who enable his illegitimate rule, adding to the 180 individuals already sanctioned by the Treasury. A targeted sanctions policy—not maximum pressure—is the only way to ensure that US actions to confront the Maduro regime impose their desired effect, and do not play into the hands of Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran.
Topic:: Markets, Governance, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and United States of America

71. Brazil and the TPNW: Brazilian Interests and the Promotion of the Norm of Nuclear Prohibition

Author:: Luiza Elena Januário and Raquel Gontijo
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) formalises the norm of nuclear prohibition and is presented as a way to fill a gap regarding nuclear disarmament. Brazil played a leading role in the negotiation of this treaty, in line with its historical advocacy for disarmament. This article aims to analyse the foundations of the Brazilian position, guided by the following question: Can Brazil be considered a norm entrepreneur in favour of the prohibition of nuclear weapons? We hypothesise that Brazil has not truly solidified its role as a normative entrepreneur, exhibiting an ambiguous stance. We begin the article with a discussion of the contributions of norm constructivism. Next, we present some elements of the nuclear normative order. Finally, we analyse Brazil’s posture regarding TPNW and the norm of nuclear prohibition. We provide a historical reconstruction of Brazil’s position, situating it in the context of the norm cluster around nuclear weapons. Despite being vocal in advocating for disarmament, we conclude that Brazil has not fully established itself as a norm entrepreneur in promoting the norm of nuclear prohibition and presents an ambiguous stance due to its weak adherence to humanitarian motivation as the foundation of this norm.
Topic:: Disarmament, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), Nuclear Weapons, and Norms
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

72. Thomas Buergenthal and the Americas: A Comprehensive Contribution to Human Rights Protection

Author:: Kai Ambos
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: While Thomas Buergenthal’s contribution to the field of human rights is certainly of global importance, it had a particular impact in the Americas, especially during the crucial initial phase of the Inter-American Human Rights System (IAHRS) with the Court as its core institution on which Buergenthal served as one of the first group of judges from 1979 to 1991. In a nutshell, Buergenthal’s contribution may be characterized as a comprehensive and decisive effort to the regional protection of human rights in a threefold way: prudent proactivity (A.), active promotion and optimization (B.), interaction and critical follow-up (C.). At the same time, Buergenthal pursued a strategic-progressive approach which offers valuable lessons for the protection of human rights going well beyond the Americas. Buergenthal’s contribution to human rights and to international law in general cannot be overestimated. His principled and at the same time prudent strategic approach will be greatly missed, especially in our challenging times where international law is under attack at various fronts.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Protection, and Thomas Buergenthal
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and Americas

73. Protecting Colombia’s Most Vulnerable on the Road to “Total Peace”

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The new Colombian government has resolved to curb violence throughout rural areas where guerrillas and criminals hold sway. Its approach – dialogue and security reform – is admirable but risky. Any deal it strikes should seek to halt all the types of coercion the illicit groups employ.
Topic:: Conflict, Violence, Humanitarian Crisis, Vulnerability, and Gender
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

74. Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What’s new? Once one of South America’s safest countries, Ecuador has in under a decade become its most violent, transforming into a hub of the drug trade to Europe. President Daniel Noboa’s iron-fist approach brought murder rates down at first, but violence has since soared again and crime continues unabated. Why does it matter? Ecuador’s authorities have declared the country to be in the grip of internal armed conflict, deploying soldiers to prisons and crime-hit communities. With no sign of violence falling, the government is set to double down on its tough approach, expanding cooperation with the U.S. military and private security contractors. What should be done? Crackdowns send a strong message to communities and criminals alike, but alone they tend not to overwhelm drug markets. Ecuador should do more to bring state services and licit economic opportunities to crime-hit neighbourhoods while quelling the corruption in ports, prisons and the state that helps generate the crime wave.
Topic:: Corruption, Violence, Organized Crime, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Ecuador

75. The International Community in the Face of Intensified Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon During the Presidency of Jair Bolsonaro

Author:: Anna Sakson-Boulet
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Since the 1950s, when the deliberate settlement of the Amazon began, with a rapid influx of people, the Brazilian Amazon has faced various threats because of the demands associated with unsustainable economic development. During the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, environmental policies were marginalized, including through the legislative and regulatory dismantling of forest protection and the financial sapping of environmental institutions, which favored uncontrolled logging of equatorial forests. Therefore, deforestation increased yearly during the Bolsonaro administration, accompanied by increased greenhouse gas emissions. That is why the article aims to answer the question of what role the international community can play in protecting the Amazon rainforest, given its essential role in regulating the climate regionally and globally. The research methods include formal institutional analysis of relevant legal documents and decision analysis. The research and analysis of states’ individual and collective actions lead to the conclusion that economic pressure has been applied to influence the Bolsonaro administration.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Community, Jair Bolsonaro, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin

76. Media Vassalage: How Venezuela’s TeleSUR Acts as Russia’s and China’s Information- Laundering Front

Author:: Peter Benzoni
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: After a contested July presidential election in which Nicolás Maduro claimed victory with 51% of the vote—amid allegations of irregularities, limited oversight, and too few international observers—Venezuela was thrown into turmoil. The Carter Center, one of the few sanctioned observers, concluded the “election did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.” To sustain its tenuous grip on power, Maduro’s administration must seek legitimacy from powerful allies such as Russia and China, even while attempting to mend ties with the Trump administration—an effort the latter had warmed to, then cooled on. Digital Forensic Research Lab fellow Iria Puyosa argues that authoritarian regimes across Latin America engage in cross-regional authoritarian collaboration in the form of “strategies to manipulate media and information spaces in order to undermine weak democracies … and help like-minded illiberal leaders seize and consolidate power”. For Venezuela, this manifests in its subordinate relationships with Russia and China, hinging on mutual legitimation—endorsing each other’s elections, governance practices, and policies—and strategic amplification, in which China and Russia promote their preferred narratives and national interests in Venezuela. Yet TeleSUR, Venezuela’s premier state media outlet, does not parrot Russian and Chinese lines under duress. Rather, its editorial line frequently aligns with those of these major powers due to overlapping ideological and political goals, including a shared desire for a multipolar world that counters Western influence and sanctions. This synergy allows Venezuela to secure vital international support and reinforce its domestic legitimacy, thus preserving the Maduro administration’s foothold in power. Venezuela, in turn, recreates this same patron-client relationship with its own regional allies—a dynamic we term “media vassalage.”
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Foreign Interference, and Nicolas Maduro
Political Geography:: Russia, China, South America, and Venezuela

77. A hostile environment for peace mobilization: stigmatization and violence-justifying attitudes toward land rights advocates in Colombia

Author:: Diana Isabel Güiza-Gómez and Abby Córdova
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: Despite signing a peace accord in 2016, Colombia remains one of the most dangerous countries for social mobilization for peace, democracy, and equality. Between 2016 and 2023, 1,804 social leaders and 351 ex-combatants were assassinated. However, there has been no strong or sustained public outcry in response to this violence. This policy brief presents findings from a research project examining public attitudes toward lethal violence against social leaders and ex-combatants, with a focus on stigmatization against these actors and violence-justifying beliefs and attitudes. Drawing on data from an online survey conducted in late 2023—which is representative of the urban population with internet access—the study shows that violence-justifying attitudes toward both unarmed civilians—who did not engage in insurgent action—and former guerrilla combatants depends largely on their demands. Although public opinion tends to be more favorable toward social leaders than ex-combatants, citizen perceptions of both groups become more negative when these actors advocate for structural reforms, particularly land redistribution. This is because social mobilization for land redistribution is often associated with wartime grievances and thus perceived as a threat to the existing social order. These findings show that redistributive peace commitments are seen as potentially destabilizing, which in turn reinforces stigma against actors who advocate for redistribution. The study draws policy and practice recommendations to counteract such stigmatization, prevent violence, and support the implementation of the peace accord.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Transitional Justice, Violence, Stigmatization, Land Redistribution, Social Leaders, and Ex-Combatants
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

78. Alternative sentencing for female heads of household Law 2292 of 2023: A path toward gender justice in drug policy in Colombia

Author:: Mujeres Libres, International Centre for Human Rights and Drug Policy at the University of Essex, and Justice and Society-Dejusticia Center of Study on Law
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: Law 2292 of 2023 introduces an innovative sentencing alternative in Colombia for female heads of household, particularly those involved in drug-related crimes due to socioeconomic vulnerability. Instead of incarceration, eligible women can serve their sentences through unpaid community service. This approach recognizes caregiving roles and aligns with international human rights and drug policy guidelines. It addresses structural inequalities, aiming to prevent incarceration and facilitate reintegration. However, the law’s implementation faces several challenges: limited outreach, inconsistent eligibility criteria, and a lack of employment transition policies. Only a small fraction of eligible women have benefited so far. The document calls for reforms such as expunging criminal records, involving trial judges early in sentencing, and enabling active participation of women with lived experience in monitoring the law. This model aspires to shift from punitive to restorative justice, offering a blueprint for other nations grappling with the incarceration crisis among women.
Topic:: Women, Incarceration, Gender Justice, Drug Policy, and Alternative Sentencing
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

79. Friendshoring Copper: A New Pillar of the U.S.-Brazilian Economic Partnership

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran, Meredith Schwartz, and Bryan Harris
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Brazil holds some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals, including niobium, rare earths, graphite, manganese, bauxite, zinc, and lithium. However, the next frontier is copper, which now accounts for one-third of all mineral exploration investment in the country. Market enthusiasm for Brazil’s copper aligns with a global outlook in which copper demand is projected to nearly double by 2035. China has already secured a strong foothold in Brazil’s mining ecosystem through trade agreements, concessional financing, and infrastructure investments. By contrast, the United States remains in the early stages of building a minerals partnership with Brazil. Unlocking Brazil’s potential as a major copper producer—and securing U.S. access to this strategic metal—will require bilateral efforts. Brazil must strengthen geological mapping, expand infrastructure, and streamline its overly bureaucratic permitting system. On the U.S. side, deploying strategic financing, promoting vertical supply chain integration, and offering targeted tariff exemptions to advance national and economic security objectives will be critical to a successful partnership.
Topic:: Economics, Partnerships, Mining, Trade, Economic Security, Copper, and Friendshoring
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

80. Brazil Faces Mounting Pressure from the United States

Author:: Mateusz Piotrowski and Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: A political motivation was the main driver of the U.S. measures against Brazil and its authorities in July and August, as President Donald Trump tried to protect former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro from criminal charges of plotting a coup d’état. The Trump administration responded to Bolsonaro’s conviction on 11 September with new threats and additional sanctions. The Brazilian government will intensify its attempts at dialogue with the U.S. and seek support from other BRICS+ members, among other partners, and assistance for domestic industries affected by the punitive U.S. tariffs. The conflict with the United States will influence the course of the campaign ahead of next year’s general elections in Brazil.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Elections, Tariffs, Coup, Donald Trump, BRICS, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and United States of America

81. Liberty, Affect, and The Rise of Populism

Author:: Colin Anthony MacNairn
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: In this essay, I reinterpret Hartley B. Alexander’s early 20th-century account of liberty and democracy in light of the 21st-century populist resurgence, integrating the economic analysis of Jonathan Hopkin and Mark Blyth. By combining Alexander’s concerns surrounding the ethical collapse of democratic citizenship with Hopkin and Blyth’s diagnosis of structural economic disenfranchisement, I construct a dual account of populism’s rise as the convergence of moral atrophy and institutional decay. From Trump’s America to Modi’s India, populism emerges as a liberty weaponised against itself. I argue that populism is a condition wherein the form of democracy is preserved, but its substance is debased, thereby reduced to spectacle, demagoguery, and institutional dysfunction. Drawing on specific examples and institutional analysis, I further argue for a reconstruction of liberty grounded in moral formation and institutional responsiveness, thus offering a normative pathway beyond the populist condition.
Topic:: Economics, Ethics, Populism, Liberty, and Political Philosophy
Political Geography:: India, South America, North America, and United States of America

82. Javier Milei’s War on Indigenous Rights

Author:: Karly Quadros
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As Argentina’s far right administration dismantles Indigenous protections, a wave of land evictions has destabilized life for Patagonia’s Mapuche community.
Topic:: Land Rights, Indigenous, Javier Milei, and Mapuche
Political Geography:: Argentina, South America, and Patagonia

83. Foreign Policy in the Bolsonaro Government for Israel: The Two-Level Game and Pentecostal Influence

Author:: Mohammed Nadir and Pedro Henrique Thuler de Oliveira
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: President Jair Bolsonaro's government saw several ruptures in relation to the political tradition of Brazilian diplomacy, and nowhere was this as clear as in the changes that occurred in the long relationship between Brazil and the State of Israel. Using Robert Putnam's Two-Level Game theory, this work aims to understand the influence that changes in the domestic context caused by Bolsonaro's election motivated this rapprochement with the State of Israel, especially taking into account the influence that Pentecostal and neo-Pentecostal groups exerted throughout this process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Religion, Bilateral Relations, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Brazil, Palestine, and South America

84. Changing Place: The New International Order and Brazil

Author:: Luiz Augusto Faria
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The fracture of the world order and the falling of US hegemony are the context in which Brazil's national interest must be built. The possible change in its peripheric position to the place of a player with more global influence is examined. In order to do this, Brazilian relations with its Latin America and Caribbean neighbors are examined, and how they could help to redefine its place in the world order. Finally, this article will address domestic issues that affect foreign policy, by identifying the role of class struggle between different social forces that define our national social formation, its will for power in the world system and its international alliances for its repositioning in global hierarchy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Interests, International Order, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

85. Divergent status-seeking in elite clubs: Brazil, China, and the BRICS expansion in Latin America

Author:: Luis Gouveia Junior
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: BRICS increased its geopolitical reach with a recent expansion. However, a divergent status-seeking, conceptualized as antagonistic strategies to gain status, emerged in BRICS during this process. While China defended the expansion, Brazil hesitated to accept it. Focusing on Latin America, where both seek to gain status, I analyzed how Brazil’s and China’s divergent status-seeking influenced the applications of Argentina, Bolivia, Cuba, and Venezuela for BRICS. I concluded that status-seeking motivations drove the candidacies of these states. However, Brazil served as a gatekeeper, potentially hardening the acceptance of Latin American countries in BRICS due to status calculations. Argentina’s entry was more acceptable for Brazil’s strategy to garner prestige than Venezuela’s. Meanwhile, China defended a broader expansion, supporting all four candidacies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, BRICS, Regional Politics, and Status
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

86. Cinema as soft power: China’s strategic narratives in Brazil

Author:: Paulo Menechelli
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This paper examines how China leverages cinema as a soft power tool in Brazil, focusing on film festivals, co-productions, and Confucius Institute initiatives. Adopting a poststructuralist approach, it analyzes the strategic narratives embedded in these efforts and their reception by Brazilian audiences. While initiatives like the Looking China Youth Film Project show promise, challenges persist, including Hollywood’s dominance and limited audience reach. The delayed 2017 co-production agreement underscores the complexity of bilateral cultural engagement. By highlighting both the potential and limitations of China’s cinematic strategy, the paper contributes to understanding the cultural dimensions of China–Latin America relations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Soft Power, Cinema, and Strategic Narratives
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

87. Rethinking Aid in a Contested World

Author:: Stefan Dercon
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Development aid faces a crisis of budgets, legitimacy, and political alignment. Framed in recent decades as technocratic and benevolent, aid has always been political, shaped by donor and recipient incentives. Its post–Cold War expansion reflected a permissive era of unipolarity and globalization, when Western foreign policy, business, and security establishments provided broad support. That equilibrium has now collapsed. Multipolar rivalry, protectionism, and fragmented domestic coalitions have left aid vulnerable, shallowly supported, and increasingly driven by narrow donor interests. The paper calls for recognition of the need for a globalization 2.0 that enables poorer countries to grow, warning that without such a framework, remaining aid will become more fragmented and ineffective. It also cautions against a euphemistic reliance on “mutual interest,” as evidence of genuine donor–recipient benefits is limited; trade facilitation and post-conflict stabilization are rare exceptions. Finally, the paper advances four propositions: aid must be selective, avoid entrenching dependency, balance short-term results with long-term system building, and support reformers willing to challenge the status quo. Only by acknowledging its political nature and aligning incentives within a reconfigured global order can aid remain relevant to development.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, and North America

88. Brazil’s split worlds: Navigating between the Global South and the United States

Author:: Lauri Tahtinen
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Brazilian foreign policy, traditionally nonpartisan, is increasingly shaped by domestic political divides, complicating alignment with global powers. This also fuels unpredictability, especially in relation to the United States. Brazil’s political right is looking to align with Washington in a bipolar world order, while its political left still seeks multipolarity through the Global South and with the help of the Global East. If, contrary to many expectations and current Brazilian policy, the world becomes bipolar, Brazil may be forced to pick sides, challenging its tradition of balanced diplomacy. If the world appears to be heading towards multipolarity, this would fulfil a long-held Brazilian foreign policy objective. However, Brazil faces regional dynamics that, perhaps paradoxically, resemble bipolarity, as South America remains only a secondary, or even tertiary, zone for great power competition. Hosting major forums like the G20, BRICS, and COP30 puts pressure on Brazil to deliver more consistent global messaging, limiting its room for strategic flexibility.
Topic:: Global South, Multipolarity, Strategic Autonomy, Great Powers, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

89. BRICS+: an Odd Family of (un)Likely Frenemies

Author:: Bart Dessein and Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On June 13, 2025, the government of Brazil, in its capacity as pro tempore BRICS(+) Chair, announced the formal admission of Vietnam as a partner country of the group. With this, Vietnam became the tenth BRICS+ partner country, after Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan had obtained this status in 2024. This Policy Brief aims to assess the significance of the BRICS+ framework as a whole, with particular emphasis on the role and positioning of Vietnam’s partnership within the context of the increasingly dynamic and contested geopolitical landscape that the European Union (EU) is presently faced with.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Brazil, Vietnam, and South America

90. Análisis narrativo de la política pública de reconocimiento de territorios y territorialidades campesinas en Colombia 1994 – 2024. Avances, limitaciones y recomendaciones

Author:: Patricia Sánchez García
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre Desarrollo (CIDER), Universidad de los Andes
Abstract:: El reconocimiento de territorios y territorialidades campesinas no ha avanzado de forma lineal, su desarrollo presenta tanto momentos de avance como de retroceso. Estos dan cuenta de que ha sido un tema controversial y objeto de disputa. Este documento analiza la política pública de reconocimiento de territorios y territorialidades campesinas en Colombia. El análisis se hace desde una perspectiva narrativa, para la cual es clave la identificación y el análisis de la situación controversial que cimenta la política pública, así como de las narrativas y contranarrativas movilizadas en su marco. Identifico dos narrativas movilizadas frente a los campesinos y sus formas de territorialidad: una narrativa estigmatizante, que concibe los territorios campesinos como espacios fuera del orden sobre los cuales debe imponerse la soberanía estatal. Una segunda narrativa, por el contrario, afirma la importancia del reconocimiento de la particular relación que establecen los campesinos con sus territorios y resalta los aportes que desde estos se hace a la seguridad y soberanía alimentaria, a la protección ambiental, a la superación del conflicto interno y a la materialización de la reforma agraria. Así mismo, propongo una metanarrativa centrada en la reconstrucción del proceso de desarrollo de la política de reconocimiento que abarca el período 1994- 2024. Esta ubica dos períodos de avance de la política, el primero entre 1994 y 2002 y el segundo entre 2022 y 2024, en el medio de los cuales hubo un momento de estancamiento de alrededor de dos décadas. A partir de las narrativas identificadas y de la metanarrativa construida, propongo una serie de recomendaciones para el avance de la política pública de reconocimiento que interpelan tanto al Estado co
Topic:: Agriculture, Food, Public Policy, Recognition, and Peasants
Political Geography:: South America

91. Sustainable cost of quinoa production in Bolivia: A landscape approach integrating the recovery of agricultural heritage (COSPH)

Author:: Javier Aliaga Lordemann and Adriana Caballero Caballero
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: This study analyzes the sustainable production cost, integrating the recovery of agricultural heritage (COSPH), for quinoa cultivation in the Bolivian High Plateau (Altiplano), seeking to answer: How much does it cost to make quinoa production sustainable over time in Bolivia? And, How does this change when considering agricultural heritage conservation? Specifically, the study evaluates how good agricultural practices (GAP) can mitigate climate change impacts and whether they are cost-effective, integrating the costs of agricultural heritage, which are particularly important for the quinoa real (royal quinoa) crop in Bolivia. Methodologically, the research combines a microeconomic model of imperfect competition calibrated for quinoa — capturing price differentiation based on sustainability and heritage conservation — with the NL-CROP model (Non-Linear Crop Optimization Model), which simulates non-linear interactions between climate, soil, and farming practices. Key findings show that GAP significantly reduce yield losses: under moderate climate conditions, productivity declines decrease from 5-7% to 1.8-2%, while in extreme events, losses drop from 16-30% to 2.5-6.2%, attributed to sustainable soil management. GAP remain viable in scenarios with up to two to three standard deviations, where profit margins cover additional costs. However, in severe crises (50% yield losses), negative margins (-4.7%) make agricultural insurance necessary (premiums of 7-10%), as well as tailored policies to balance climate adaptation with smallholders’ economic viability. When heritage conservation costs are included (COSPH), results show improved resilience (yield loss reduced to 10.5% under a moderate climate scenario) at a moderate additional cost (5.75% compared to 5%), suggesting that preserving agroecological heritage contributes to long-term sustainability. These findings highlight the strategic role of combining sustainable agriculture with the protection of cultural landscapes in vulnerable highland farming in Bolivia.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Heritage, Farming, Adaptation, Production, and Quinoa
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

92. Post-Summit Analyses: BRICS 2025 and the Rio Declaration

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: BRICS expanded faces a crucial moment for multilateralism. The period between the recent summit held in Rio de Janeiro and the upcoming presidency of the bloc in India, in 2026, offers an opportunity to plan the next steps. In its new configuration, following the 2024 expansion, Brazil faces challenges in recalibrating its role within the group. Within the context of new agendas, governance between annual presidencies becomes increasingly important. Brazil’s effort to assert its leadership hinges on influencing the bloc’s agenda during the next presidency, a process that begins as soon as the Rio summit was concluded. In this context, the closed-door meeting aims to analyze Brazil’s real capacity to act as a diplomatic bridge between BRICS and its traditional Western interlocutors, especially the European Union, as well as between the 2025 Summit in Brazil and the 2026 Summit under India’s presidency. Based on Brazil’s and New Delhi’s commitment to democracy and multilateralism, the bridge between these two presidencies may represent an effort to ease tensions, providing greater transparency and predictability to decisions made within BRICS. Additionally, it is essential to deepen the understanding of what can be drawn from the final communiqué, the Leaders’ Declaration of the 17th BRICS Summit, by analyzing the political impacts of the meeting and the developments stemming from the joint declaration.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

93. 50 Years of Relationship: Looking to the Future

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: In 2024, Brazil and China celebrated 50 years of diplomatic relations, marked by friendship, cooperation, and shared aspirations for the future. Over this period, the bilateral relationship has evolved from a predominantly trade-based partnership into a comprehensive strategic partnership, encompassing themes such as innovation, sustainability, and global governance. Among these agendas, sustainable development plays a central role, serving as a reference point for understanding the future paths of cooperation. In this context, CEBRI has gathered the main reflections from the China Analysis Group, an initiative carried out in partnership with BOCOM BBM, as well as from the events organized to mark the 50th anniversary of Sino-Brazilian relations. The publication highlights three priority areas for the future agenda: sustainable development, the digital economy, and strategic areas for deepening the bilateral relationship.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Trade, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

94. Policies on super pollutants and air quality: International collaboration towards COP30 and beyond

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: This factsheet contributes to the roundtable “Advancing Super Pollutant Reduction Policies Towards COP30”, which brings together leaders from Brazilian ministries and international delegations to discuss the importance of policies aimed at tackling super pollutants (or Short-Lived Climate Pollutants – SLCPs, such as black carbon, tropospheric ozone, and methane), sharing international experiences in this field and exploring opportunities for cooperation at COP30 and beyond. The document outlines global policies for super pollutant reduction and highlights opportunities for Brazil to integrate climate, health, and air quality actions in the lead-up to COP30.
Topic:: Climate Change, Pollution, Public Health, Collaboration, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

95. What Comes Next? Reflections on the BRICS Rio Declaration and the Path to COP30

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: This webinar is one of several initiatives promoted by the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) to explore Brazil’s role within the BRICS and assess the bloc’s influence on key global issues. This particular event focused on the synergies between the BRICS agenda and the expectations surrounding the upcoming COP30, which will take place in November this year. This is a pivotal moment for Brazil. Following its presidency of the G20 last year, the country now holds the dual chairmanship of the BRICS Summit and COP30. In this sense, this report summarizes the main discussions regarding the Rio Declaration and its possible implications for COP30.
Topic:: Climate Change, G20, BRICS, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

96. The Venezuelan labyrinth: A crisis reframed

Author:: Eduardo Massieu Paredes
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Venezuela’s crisis has long been narrated through an opposition prism: crowds in the streets demanding democracy, negotiations or contested ballots. In 2025, the spotlight has shifted. The decisive question is not how hard Venezuelans push but what the United States is prepared to do, and why. A draft defence review proposes a major redeployment. Led by under‑secretary Elbridge Colby, it calls for concentrating military power on the homeland and the Americas. The plan envisages shifting forces away from Europe and the Indo‑Pacific and expanding air and naval operations along the southern U.S. border and throughout the Caribbean. It revives the logic of the Monroe Doctrine: prevent rival powers from embedding in Latin America. For the architects of Washington’s new Venezuela campaign, success will be judged less by what happens in Caracas than by how it plays in Washington DC or Florida. By measuring success in domestic terms, the United States may very well leave Venezuelans no closer to the democracy they seek. Washington’s handling of the Venezuelan crisis could be a preview of a wider strategic realignment. Colby’s “homeland first, hemisphere next” doctrine would pull military assets from the East and surge them into the Americas. Latin America’s response reflects both caution and fatigue. They will hedge: criticise the optics of U.S. gunboat diplomacy while quietly ignoring any weakening of the Maduro regime. The regime’s only remaining legitimacy is the loyalty of its security apparatus and the fear it can instill. The opposition, meanwhile, still holds the moral mandate. That legitimacy now carries even more weight after María Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Against that backdrop, four trajectories remain on the table for the crisis itself: 1) Ruling‑party managed transition; 2) Negotiated exit; 3) Forced removal; 4) Regime endurance. Venezuela’s impasse is fast becoming a proving ground for Washington’s “America first” doctrine and a primary focus on the Western Hemisphere in their foreign policy in decades. The backdrop is a country with its people exhausted, and its institutions hollowed out so internally in Venezuela very little should be expected. A purely theatrical strike may consolidate the status quo rather than topple it. If the United States genuinely wants systemic change, it will need more than sinking boats and slogans, it will need a strategy that endures beyond the next news cycle. Whether that is what President Trump actually seeks remains an open question.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Democracy, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

97. Multicrimen, Economías Ilícitas y su Impacto en la Gobernanza y Democracia. Caso Nariño, Cauca y Valle del Cauca.

Author:: Germán Nicolás Pataquiva
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Colombia evidencia un patrón de reconfiguración patológica de la gobernanza en regiones como Nariño, Cauca y Valle del Cauca, donde el crimen organizado viene desarticulando el tejido social, imponiendo regímenes locales de terror y desplazando las autoridades legítimas. Estas dinámicas reflejan que se enfrenta una amenaza asimétrica hibrida, en el que estructuras trasnacionales del crimen y de economías ilícitas penetran el Estado, acelerando la erosión democrática. Tal como ocurre en otros contextos iberoamericanos, la convergencia entre violencia armada, cooptación de instituciones y debilitamiento del Estado de derecho generan escenarios en los que actores ilegales disputan con enormes ventajas el monopolio estatal de la fuerza, la tributación y el imperio de la ley. Con lo que se plantea un desafío critico a la seguridad ciudadana y la gobernabilidad por lo que se propone implementar un enfoque multinivel y la creación de una “Fuerza Intermedia”
Topic:: Non State Actors, Governance, Armed Forces, Democracy, Violence, Organized Crime, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

98. Diálogos con las Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia -AGC-. De clan a ejército ¿paz para todos?

Author:: Deborah Presta Novello
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Las Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia -AGC-, también conocidas como Clan del Golfo y, recientemente autodenominados Ejército Gaitanista de Colombia -EGC-, pueden ser consideradas como el actor armado más importante en el escenario criminal de Colombia, tras la firma de los Acuerdos de paz con la extinta guerrilla de las FARC-EP. En agosto de 2024 se hizo pública la exploración de diálogos con este grupo por parte del Gobierno colombiano, abanderando su política de Paz Total, bajo la que pretende negociar con cada uno de los grupos armados que operan en el país. En este estudio, se pretende resaltar la importancia de este diálogo, así como abordar las incertidumbres que presenta el futuro de las negociaciones con este grupo, debido a la notable expansión del mismo, sus enormes recursos financieros y su falta de estatus político reconocido.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Peace, Paramilitary, Dialogue, and Social Control
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

99. Ready to negotiate? The difficulty of peace talks with the National Liberation Army in Colombia

Author:: Leidy Bedoya and Jerónimo Ríos
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article examines the factors that influenced the ELN's readiness to commit to a settlement during the Colombian peace process of 2023–24. By analysing structural changes within the ELN between 2016 and 2024, the study identifies four key variables: territorial occupation, resources and capabilities, internal cohesion, and alliances. Using a comparative conflict research design and qualitative approach, the study highlights the ELN's transformation following the FARC-EP's demobilisation in 2016, and assesses the implications of these changes for President Gustavo Petro's “Paz Total” peace initiative. The study concludes that the ELN is not yet structurally prepared for unified peace negotiations, which casts doubt on the success of the 'Paz Total'.
Topic:: Non State Actors, FARC, Peacemaking, National Liberation Army (ELN), and Demobilization
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

100. Le marché gris du cannabis médicinal en Colombie

Author:: Luis Rivera Vélez
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: The grey market for medicinal cannabis in Colombia -- Although it was legalised in 2015, we are now witnessing the emergence and structuring of the grey market for medicinal cannabis in Colombia. If the initial goal was to create a competitive legal industry, the implementation of an excessively pharmacological regulatory framework – combined with limited medical demand and transnational obstacles – favored the emergence of a parallel market operating at the margins of legality. The analyses of 25 interviews conducted with institutional, entrepreneurial, and civil society actors shows that the grey market is not merely the result of public policy failures but also the testimonial of the adaptive capacities of actors on the ground that use it to resist the failure of the policy implementation. Four production systems characterize this market which, far from being marginal, represents a key space for access to medicinal cannabis in Colombia, while simultaneously exerting pressure on authorities to redefine the regulation.
Topic:: Markets, Public Policy, Medicinal Cannabis, and Gray Market
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS