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2701. Managing the Challenge of Russian Energy Policies

Author:
Keith C. Smith
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Following the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, the leaders of Russia, including then-President Boris Yeltsin, searched for new methods of continuing to exert influence over the former Soviet-controlled region. The Kremlin at first used an energy blockade to the Baltic States in 1990 in an attempt to prevent their breakaway from the Soviet Union. After that failed, it then focused on the growing opposition in the former republics of the Soviet Union and in East Central Europe to its foreign and economic policies, and in particular on demands that Russian military forces withdraw from the newly independent states. The Kremlin leadership quickly recognized that short of military action, its major foreign policy tool was the denial or threat of denial of access to Russia's vast oil and gas resources. The economies of East European and Central Asian countries, and especially their rail and pipeline infrastructures, had been hardwired by Soviet leaders to assure total dependency on Moscow for their raw materials, including oil, gas, coal, and nuclear fuel.
Topic:
Cold War, Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Soviet Union

2702. Radical Islam in the North Caucasus

Author:
Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As Kyrgyzstan plunges into crisis and the threat of a second Afghanistan in Central Asia looms large, the situation in the "Big Caucasus" seems less pressing and thus overshadowed. The worst scenarios predicted by analysts and politicians for the period of the 2008 August war have not been realized. The Russian attempt to "replace the regime" of Mikhail Saakashvili or apply the Georgian pattern in Ukraine, expected by many in the West, has not taken place. Neither have the attempts from the West (the United States, NATO, and others) to "nudge Georgia into a rematch," which were expected in Moscow. Nonetheless, the Caucasus region remains one of the most vulnerable spaces in Eurasia. In the Caucasus, the first precedent of a revision of borders between the former Soviet republics was established. For the first time in Eurasia, and particularly in the Caucasus, partially recognized states have emerged. While their independence is denied by the United Nations, it is recognized by the Russian Federation, a permanent member of the UN Security Council. After the "hot August" of 2008, Moscow demonstrated its willingness to play the role of a revisionist state for the first time since 1991. Russia defines the "Big Caucasus" as the sphere of its vital interests and priorities and consequently pretends to be a key stakeholder for the whole region.
Topic:
NATO, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Central Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moscow, and United Nations

2703. Georgia: Securing a Stable Future

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Two and a half years after the war with Russia, Georgia's political life is increasingly turning towards preparations for the 2012-2013 elections and debates around divisions of power after a recent overhaul of the constitution. The substantial amendments, which come into force in 2013 at the same time as President Mikheil Saakashvili steps down due to a term limit, will give much greater power to the prime minister. The next two years will go a long way in determining whether the country progresses toward a truly stable, modern democracy, or deteriorates into a fragile, pseudo-pluralistic and stagnating system. The government and political opposition movement need to use that crucial period to create public trust in democratic institutions. The best way to achieve this is by engaging in meaningful dialogue to ensure a fair election cycle, strengthened rule of law, economic stability and the legitimacy of the future government.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Russia

2704. Security of Europe's Gas Supply: EU Vulnerability

Author:
Andrew Macintosh
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Clearly the natural gas market is experiencing considerable change: a second Ukraine-Russia gas crisis, a collapse in the price of natural gas, a new European natural gas security of supply regulation and the mass production of natural gas from unconventional sources in the US as a result of technological advancements, which could yet have an impact on the EU. This Policy Brief is a summation of the European Union's vulnerability to natural gas supply security risks.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2705. "Traditional Gap" in the ICJ's Advisory Opinion on Kosovo

Author:
Mushfig Mammadov
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
On February 17, 2008 Kosovo, hitherto the internationally recognized territory of Serbia, unilaterally declared its independence. Three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the USA, UK and France) immediately recognized the independence of Kosovo, while the other two, Russia and China, sharply criticized Kosovo's step and have thus far refused to recognize Kosovo as an independent state. In October 2008 the UN General Assembly requested the International Court of Justice (ICJ), upon the initiative of Serbia, to render an advisory opinion with regard to whether the unilateral declaration of independence adopted by the provisional institutions of Kosovo was in accordance with international law. In its non-binding advisory opinion, delivered on July 22, 2010 the Court stated that the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo did not violate international law. Nonetheless, this conclusion is not so clear and simple as it at first might seem, nor so “dangerous”, as it was described in the media and in some reactions, especially upon a closer reading of the entire text of the advisory opinion.
Topic:
International Law
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Kosovo, United Nations, and Serbia

2706. EU and Turkish Neighborhood Policies: Common Goals

Author:
Çiğdem Üstün
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
Turkey and the European Union (EU) share the same neighborhood in the Mediterranean, Middle East, the Black Sea, and the Caucasus regions, with the same objectives of creating a ring of friends, minimizing threats to their social, political, economic, and energy interests, and ensuring stability. This paper aims to explain the relations of Turkey and the EU with the shared neighborhood countries; to analyze the compatibility of Turkish and EU neighborhood policies; and to demonstrate the need for these two actors to work together in order to achieve credible results in their neighborhood policies. I argue that coordinated Turkish and EU neighborhood policies may bring better results than individualistic approaches, bringing the credibility that the EU needs the most in these regions as well as opening channels of communication in a constructive manner. This relationship is believed to be mutually beneficial as long as Turkey and the EU both maximize their capabilities in these regions.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2707. Transforming the Quartet principles: Hamas and the Peace Process

Author:
Carolin Goerzig
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Despite the clear necessity of an inclusive approach that involves all relevant actors, the Middle East Quartet (comprising the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and Russia) has made political and financial cooperation with the Palestinian Authority dependent on the recognition of the three Quartet principles — the recognition of Israel, the renunciation of violence and adherence to previous diplomatic agreements — in exchange for the recognition of a Palestinian government. But instead of compelling Hamas to consider compliance, the Quartet principles have in fact led the group to become more entrenched in its defiant stance. There is a fundamental problem with the three Quartet conditions. While decision-makers proclaim that the three principles come as a package and are inseparable, it is precisely the fact that they are so interlocked and that Hamas is required to comply with them simultaneously that makes compliance problematic. This is the case because the three principles are mutually constraining to such an extent that complying with one principle effectively prevents Hamas from complying with another. Originally, the three Quartet principles were intended as a basis or a framework for a potential peace process. They define the conditions a negotiating partner has to fulfil in order to take part in Middle East peace talks. In reality, however, they have acted as an impediment. This paper seeks to find a way of overcoming the constraints that the EU has imposed upon itself by insisting on simultaneous adherence to the three Quartet principles. It looks at what room for manoeuvre there remains for the EU within the framework of the Quartet conditions and at how they can be modified in such a way that they facilitate rather than obstruct compliance.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Politics, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

2708. Russia's Arctic policy: Geopolitics, mercantilism and identity-building

Author:
Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The maritime border delimitation deal between Russia and Norway sensationally announced by President Dmitri Medvedev in Oslo on 27 April 2010 and signed in Murmansk on 15 September 2010 warrants a re-appraisal of Russia's Arctic policy. The penchant for sensationalism often spills over from the media into policy analysis, which recycles perceptions of the 'struggle for resources' reaching the intensity of a 'great Arctic game' and escalating into a 'new Cold War'. In reality, however, Moscow has not overstepped the rules of international law and has remained committed to the 'club regulations' of several Arctic institutions, so 2010 might set the trend towards a de-escalation of tensions in the High North. It would have been too simplistic to explain away the pronounced emphasis on cooperation in Russia's foreign policy with references to the impact of the economic recession, which has undercut the previous rise of ambitious self-assertiveness. Rather, the Arctic policy is shaped by a dynamic interplay of poorly compatible Russian interests and intentions, and this paper seeks to demonstrate that this interplay cannot be reduced to an equation of security imperatives and economic drivers because immaterial ideas add to its complexity.
Topic:
Cold War and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2709. Russia-EU cooperation on energy efficiency: Enthusiasm and challenges ahead

Author:
Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The adoption of the new energy efficiency legislation in Russia in 2009 has led to anticipation that a new exciting avenue of cooperation is about to open up in Russia-EU relations. The EU has been called upon to support the Russian initiatives as they would make its energy relations with Russia more stable. Furthermore, because both Russia and the EU are working towards the same goal of making their respective economies more energy efficient, the two are natural partners. This partnership is often postulated in terms of transferring European investments and technologies to Russia’s emerging energy efficiency market.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2710. Russia's modernization reloaded: Political constraints on economic development

Author:
Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Rumour has it that prior to his first visit to Beijing in spring 2008, President Medvedev instructed officials at the Ministry of Trade and Development to take a picture of Moscow that would aptly convey Russia's drive for modernization and innovation to his Chinese hosts. In carrying out his orders, employees from the ministry spent two months looking for a suitable place to photograph, but it is not known whether they were successful in their quest or not. Perhaps the story is only apocryphal, and no such order was ever given. Nevertheless, the anecdote has sown the seeds of doubt in the minds of the country's current leadership that there is actually not that much to see when it comes to the campaign for the 'technological modernization' of Russia.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Moscow

2711. Issue Brief: Reaching the OSCE Summit in Astana

Author:
Walter Kemp
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
On December 1 and 2, 2010, Kazakhstan will host the heads of state or government of fifty-six countries for the first summit of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) since 1999. This is a major achievement for a country that was considered by some to be an inappropriate choice to lead the OSCE. Yet the Astana summit is not a test of Kazakhstan's leadership. It is about the future of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian security, and the viability of the OSCE. At a time when the European Union, Russia, and the United States are redefining their relationships and looking for common ground, the Astana summit provides an opportunity to focus on issues that unite all stakeholders—finding a sense of common purpose to deal with common threats and challenges on the basis of common principles. This brief looks at what it will take to reach the “summit” at Astana, examines the main issues at stake, and considers the relevance and future direction of the OSCE.
Topic:
Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Asia

2712. EU-Russia Energy Diplomacy: 2010 and Beyond?

Author:
Irena Dimitrova
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
There are three major players in the arena of European energy security: the European Union, its individual member states, and Russia, which is currently the EU's most important energy supplier. Other concerned parties include candidates for EU membership and those nations that aspire to candidacy. Countries through which Russian gas must travel en route to markets in Western Europe, possible gas suppliers from the Caucasus and Central Asia, and the United States also have significant roles to play. This essay focuses on researching the nature of the European Union's energy relations with Russia in terms of natural gas supply, from the perspective of the member states.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Central Asia

2713. The Russo-Chinese Strategic Partnership: Oil and Gas Dimensions

Author:
Jean-Marie Holtzinger
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
This essay seeks to determine the nature of the strategic energy partnership between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, focusing on oil and gas. In particular, it will attempt to answer the question of whether there is a real and valid strategic energy partnership between the two countries. Many joint declarations, statements, and treaties on the strategic partnership have offered evidence of the good relationship between the two countries. These have been reinforced in recent years through cooperation in different fields—economy, military, and energy—underpinned by an apparently common shared vision of the world. As far as the energy partnership is concerned, many advances have been achieved in the oil and gas sectors. This results from a complementary association of both actors that gives priority to market forces, since Russia is a major oil and gas producer and China, because of its growing economy, is a major consumer. However, this strategic energy partnership is limited in scope, and is very fragile for many reasons: the Russian domestic market is growing; Europe is a more attractive partner for Russian energy exports; Russia has fears regarding China's rapid expansion in economic and geopolitical power; China's tendency to engage in active diplomacy in all directions; and the influence of Japan and South Korea on the Asian market. All factors indicate that there is at present an energy partnership between the two countries, but that it seems to be more strategic for Russia than for China.
Topic:
Disaster Relief
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

2714. QJ Fall 2010 (full version)

Author:
Irena Dimitrova
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
There are three major players in the arena of European energy security: the European Union, its individual member states, and Russia, which is currently the EU's most important energy supplier. Other concerned parties include candidates for EU member- ship and those nations that aspire to candidacy. Countries through which Russian gas must travel en route to markets in Western Europe, possible gas suppliers from the Caucasus and Central Asia, and the United States also have significant roles to play. This essay focuses on researching the nature of the European Union's energy relations with Russia in terms of natural gas supply, from the perspective of the member states.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Central Asia

2715. Implementing the Responsibility to Protect: Where Expectations Meet Reality

Author:
Jennifer Welsh
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Responsibility to Protect: The Global Effort to End Mass Atrocities, Alex J. Bellamy (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2009), 249 pp., $70 cloth, $25 paper. The Responsibility to Protect: Ending Mass Atrocity Crimes Once and for All, Gareth Evans (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2008), 349 pp., $37 cloth, $20 paper. Humanitarian Intervention and the Responsibility to Protect: Who Should Intervene?, James Pattison (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010), 284 pp., $95 cloth. In June 2010 intercommunal violence exploded in Kyrgyzstan's southern cities of Osh and Jalalabad, resulting in the dramatic scene of thousands of ethnic Uzbeks fleeing their homes to avoid persecution by groups of ethnic Kyrgyz (allegedly backed by government troops). Reports of arson, rape, and other atrocities were widespread, accompanied by varying accounts of the number of civilians killed.1 The response to the persecution and displacement followed a pattern that we have seen before: calls for urgent international action by nongovernmental organizations, such as Human Rights Watch and the International Crisis Group, followed by a muted response on the part of international organizations (in this case, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the United Nations Security Council). While both Russia and the United States were active in supporting efforts to organize humanitarian assistance to those affected by the violence, neither state was prepared to tackle the political and logistical challenge of deploying military forces to the region to protect civilians.
Topic:
Security and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Washington

2716. Bismarck, Wilhelm II., and German Military Leadership

Author:
Dr. Michael Epkenhans
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
At least twice in the history of Imperial Germany, December seems to have been a rather critical month: On 17 December 1887, the ageing German Emperor, Wilhelm I, convened his military entourage at his bed in the castle of Berlin to listen to the reports of his generals about the military situation of the Empire. Under normal circumstances, these reports by Germany's highest-ranking generals, the Chief of Staff and his Quarter Master General, the Prussian Minister of War, and the chief of the Military Cabinet were by no means unusual. Against the background of a political situation which seemed to be deteriorating for several years now, this meeting, however, turned out to be a war-council. For many months the Quarter Master General of the Prussian Army, General v. Waldersee had been pleading for a preventive war against Russia. Germany's eastern neighbour had been quarreling with the nation's most reliable ally, Austria-Hungary, over the Balkans for more than two years now, and according to secret reports about the redeployment of troops on its western border seemed to prepare for a war against the powers of the dual alliance. From a military point of view a solution to this problem seemed urgent, not the least because of the hostile attitude of Germany's western neighbour, France. Waldersee's plea for war was supported by the 87-year-old Chief of the General Staff, Moltke the Elder, and Prince William, whose influence had become ever more important due to his father's fatal illness.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Russia, Germany, Hungary, Austria, Berlin, and Prussia

2717. Cold Front: Hillary, Ottawa, and the Inuit:A Year after the Inuit Re-Assert their Sovereignty, Washington Takes Their Side

Author:
Barry Zellen
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
On April 28, 2009, a delegation of Inuit leaders from Greenland, Canada, Alaska, and Russia presented the Circumpolar Inuit Declaration on Arctic Sovereignty in Tromsø, Norway, where the Arctic Council was meeting. This historic declaration represented the Inuit response to their exclusion eleven months earlier at the May 2008 Ilulissat Summit of top foreign policymakers among the Arctic rim states, and reflects a formal, if not aggressively forceful, rejection of the modern state's latest effort to shape the destiny of Arctic without the participation of the Inuit.
Political Geography:
Russia, Canada, Alaska, and Greenland

2718. Military Linguistics: Russian in the Red/Soviet Army

Author:
Nathan Hawryluk
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The development of military linguistics, a field similar to military anthropology or military history, would benefit the disciplines of linguistics and strategic studies. For linguists interested in society, the military offers another cultural group with which to contrast civilian society and a format for examining how institutions shape communication. Linguistic studies can aid strategic studies by explaining how discourse reinforces military culture and hierarchy, as well as the interaction between military and civilian society.
Topic:
Intelligence and Culture
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

2719. The Necessity of (Some) Certainty - A Critical Remark Concerning Matthew Sklerov's Concept of "Active Defense"

Author:
Sandro Gaycken
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Cyber deterrence is clearly important. Secure passive cyber defense is impossible, so deterrence is the only feasible path. However, deterrence is pointless without attribution. This is logical from a strategic point of view. If retaliation does not hit the attacker, he will not be deterred. And it is of legal importance as well. Retaliation against the wrong actor is unjust and a crime of war. Thus attribution is a necessary condition for the law of war. An attacker has to be identified and, to make it an armed attack and not just a criminal act, the attacker has to be a state actor.
Political Geography:
Russia and China

2720. Russia, the United States, and the New Cold War

Author:
Bohdan Harasymiw
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The phrase ‚New Cold War,‛ referring to the strained nature of United States-Russia relations, especially since Vladimir Putin’s coming to power in the year 2000, has become widely disseminated in commentary on world politics today. Journalists, pundits, and even politicians keep referring to, denying, or debating its existence. Many unquestioningly accept its appropriateness in explaining the two states’ foreign policies. Partisans of one blame the other for its initiation and continuation. It has almost become a term of opprobrium, making its validity problematic. What, if anything, does it mean?
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia and United States