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1282. Lessons Learned: Peacebuilding in Haiti
- Author:
- Lotta Hagman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- Peacebuilding is not merely a technical exercise — it is highly political. In a combustible political atmosphere as in Haiti, effective peacebuilding requires careful and sustained management. The importance of a long-term approach cannot be overestimated. In Haiti, the international community was successful in restoring the constitutional government, improving the respect for basic human rights, and initiating economic development. However, for these efforts to take hold and lead to a self-sustaining democratic process, continuous international engagement in Haiti is vital. From this perspective, the cutback in the UN involvement in February 2001 was premature.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Peace Studies, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, and Haiti
1283. Achievements in Building and Maintaining the Rule of Law:MSI's Studies in LAC, E, AFR, and ANE
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- Over the past two decades the Latin America and Caribbean region (LAC) has undergone a major political transformation. All countries in the region now have elected civilian governments, with the sole exception of Cuba. With this political opening have come economic liberalization and increased opportunities for citizen participation. The region has moved beyond the formality of elections and is now confronting the more difficult challenge of reforming its other political, economic, and legal institutions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil Society, Diplomacy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean
1284. Defense White Papers in the Americas: A Comparative Analysis
- Author:
- John Cope and Laurita Denny
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In preparation for the October 2000 Defense Ministerial of the Americas (DMA) in Manaus Brazil and at the request of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) studied the global trend toward the creation of Defense White Papers. The study aimed to understand the nature of these documents in order to prepare the U.S. delegation to discuss the tendency in Latin America and the Caribbean during the DMA. The INSS study team found no agreement about what constitutes a 'white paper' other than each is a consensus statement on a topic. The team examined 15 defense documents worldwide and interviewed participants in the development process and independent analysts. The results suggest that the formative, often difficult, process through which governments must move to solidify their approach to national security defense policy, and the structure to implement it and build consensus for it is the essential part of a 'white paper,' providing a constructive experience that benefits the country. Governments tended not to want a template for this process, although at the working level there is some interest in the experience of other states. Defense White Papers become highly stylized nationalistic documents that reflect a state's unique domestic circumstances and international geopolitical situation. The attached chart provides an overview comparison of the Defense White Paper processes of Canada, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and South Africa. Past efforts by U.S. agencies to design templates have failed.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Caribbean, and Chile
1285. Colombia's War: Toward a New Strategy
- Author:
- John A. Cope
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Colombia's new president, Alvaro Uribe, is confronting a protracted internal war and moving to assert national political authority. Hopes are being pinned on Uribe, the new “law and order” president who took office on August 7, 2002, with an overwhelming mandate to end violence, narcotics, and official corruption.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, and Latin America
1286. Social Insurance Regimes: crises and 'reform' in the Argentine and Brazil, since c. 1900
- Author:
- Colin Lewis and Peter Lloyd-Sherlock
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The paper examines the structural and organisational problems of social insurance systems in Brazil and the Argentine in order to illuminate current debates about pension 'reform'. Much of the present discussion depicts social insurance 'crisis' as a modern phenomenon. Similarly, preoccupations about the macroeconomic objectives of reform - profitable pension funds as an adjunct to capital market deepening, about sustainability - the financial viability of systems, and about equity and coverage, are often assumed to be peculiar to the late twentieth century. The papers stresses the generational (or cyclical) nature of crises that have plagued social insurance regimes in both countries. It also identifies what may be learnt from differences, as well as similarities, between the two systems - not least the relatively larger historic role the private sector and earlier substantive provision for rural workers in Brazil. Following an appraisal of different 'models' (individual 'capitalised' accounts versus pay-as-you-go schemes and monopolistic state systems versus pluralistic/competitive arrangements), the paper concludes with an evaluation of the administrative and financial stability of current schemes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America
1287. The Argentine Implosion
- Author:
- Luigi Manzetti
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- In December 2001, Argentina recorded the world's largest default ever, as it failed to honor payments on its US$132 billion foreign debt. Since then, five presidents have been in power, the Argentine peso has been devalued by 120 percent, and the banking system has virtually collapsed, dragging the economy into a depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2002. Argentina's per capita income has become one of the worst in Latin America, and, as a result, more than one-third of its people live under the poverty line. 1 Argentines' confidence in their elected officials has disappeared. By most accounts, the country has literally imploded to a degree that has no precedent in Latin America's contemporary history. This is particularly bewildering, considering that only 10 years ago Argentina was hailed around the world as a model of successful economic reforms, with standards of living that were not only the highest in the region but comparable to those of some southern European countries. How could Argentina go from role model to international outcast so quickly? Some place the blame on external shocks created by the financial crises in Mexico (1995), Indonesia (1997), Thailand (1998), and Russia (1998). Others say the cause of the problem was misguided policy advice from the International Monetary Fund (Stiglitz 2002). Yet, most analyses ascribe much of the trouble to the Convertibility Law's fixed exchange rate policy adopted in 1991.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Thailand
1288. The New Cuban Immigration in Context
- Author:
- Max J Castro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Cuban migration to the United States predates Fidel Castro's revolution by more than a century. As historian Félix Masud-Piloto writes, “The Cuban presence in Florida dates back to the 1830s when Cuban cigar manufacturers, trying to avoid high U.S. tariffs, relocated their operations in Key West.” 1 The wars of independence brought a substantial cohort of exiles. In the 1880s, the Cuban community of Key West would spawn a second Cuban immigrant community based on tobacco manufacture: Ybor City in Tampa, Florida. New York City, Philadelphia, and New Orleans also had significant Cuban emigré populations in the late nineteenth century.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and Florida
1289. Colombia's Conflicts: The Spillover Effects of a Wider War
- Author:
- Richard Millet
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- In today's global village, there is no such thing as a purely national crisis. Every conflict has spillover effects, ranging from trade disruptions to refugee flows to violent clashes. In the past, it was common for nations to believe that promoting conflict in neighboring states could somehow enhance their security, but in the twenty-first century it has become increasingly obvious that conflicts in one nation constitute a security threat to all who share common borders. Today, it is more often the weakness rather than the strength of states that threatens to disrupt the search for peace and stability.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America
1290. The Dominican Republic's 2000 Presidential Election: The U.S. Role in Supporting the Process
- Author:
- Kevin Michael O'Reilly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Dominicans elected Rafael Hipólito Mejía Domínguez their president on May 16, 2000. He took office on August 16, 2000. Mejía, the candidate of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Dominicano — PRD), won 1,593,231 votes or 49.87 percent of the ballots cast in an essentially three-way race with Danilo Medina of the Party of Dominican Liberation (Partido de la Liberación Dominicana — PLD) and former President Joaquín Balaguer of the Social Christian Reformist Party (Partido Reformista Social Cristiano — PRSC). Medina won 24.94 percent of the vote (796,923) to finish second, with Balaguer only fractions of a percentage point behind, at 24.60 percent (785,926). Turnout, at just over 76 percent, was high by historical standards. Although two shooting deaths marred the campaign's closing days, relatively little violence accompanied the voting compared to previous Dominican elections. Since 1994, Dominican electoral law had called for a runoff between the top two vote winners if no candidate passed the 50-percent-plus-one mark, but Medina conceded on May 17, after Balaguer acknowledged that he could not deliver the entire PRSC vote to the PLD in a second round of voting. Balaguer announced, “For the good of the country, we waive our right to participate in a second round.” The country's Central Electoral Board (Junta Central Electoral — JCE) certified Mejía's victory on May 18, 2000.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Caribbean
1291. The U.S. Engagement with Colombia: Legitimate State Authority and Human Rights
- Author:
- Gabriel Marcella
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- September 11, 2001, reshaped international relations and had a profound impact on the strategic equation in Colombia. The challenge of what U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called “draining the swamp” of terrorism with global links resonated deeply in Bogotá and among the insurgent forces: the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia — FARC), the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional — ELN), and the paramilitaries, among them, the United Self- defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia — AUC). Though these groups already appeared on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist organizations, as of 9/11 they formed part of a broader international threat assessment. Two weeks into 2002, an ill-conceived “peace process,” initiated by President Andrés Pastrana with the FARC in 1999, was r esuscitated at the last minute before an impending military offensive by the government against the FARC was started. President Pastrana, “risking all for peace,” had extended himself, his negotiators, and his government's credibility as far as he could for three years — with nothing to show for such extensive efforts other than his administration's and the Colombian citizens' frustration and virtual surrender to the FARC of national sovereignty over a demilitarized zone ( despeje ) the size of Switzerland, located in San Vicente del Caguán, an area south of Bogotá.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America
1292. Protecting the Environment While Opening Markets in the Americas
- Author:
- William Krist
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Market Access Negotiations are a major element of the efforts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2020. If successful, these negotiations will remove all tariff and nontariff barriers to trade among the 34 participating countries on all nonagricultural products, including forest and mining products, fish, and manufactured goods.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America
1293. The Dominican Diaspora Revisited: Dominicans and Dominican-Americans in a New Century
- Author:
- Max J. Castro and Thomas D. Boswell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- The economy has been growing rapidly in recent years. Democracy is increasingly consolidated. The rate of birth has dropped significantly, and the level of education has risen.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Caribbean
1294. The Effectiveness of Special Interventions in Latin American Public Primary Schools
- Author:
- Joan B. Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- In pursuit of improved quality and more equity in education, public primary schools in Latin America have utilized several compensatory educational policies that include special interventions such as food aid programs, distribution of free textbooks, classroom libraries, in-service teacher training, extra classes and extra school sessions, tutors and mentors, and scholarships. Using data on children and schools in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, this paper presents the results of cross-country, empirical estimates of the effects of these interventions on language and math achievement and on the likelihood of promotion, both at the school level and at the level of individual children. Language and math achievement was measured by scores on UNESCO-developed language and math examinations administered to each of the 2,048 children in the sample. In addition, the paper addresses whether a particular intervention is equally effective in poor and non-poor environments and whether these compensatory interventions in fact target those who need them most. Empirical findings suggest that the most effective programs are classroom libraries, distribution of textbooks, distribution of food, and teacher training. For programs to be compensatory, the research indicates that better targeting of scarce resources toward low-income schools and children is needed
- Topic:
- Development, Education, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile
1295. Argentina — Beleaguered Banks
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of the economic crisis on the Argentine banking sector. The collapse of the peso-dollar peg dealt a serious blow to the already weakened Argentine banking system, which now faces a significant restructuring process.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
1296. The Epidemiology of Microeconomic Expectations
- Author:
- Christopher D. Carroll
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936), macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet in recent decades macroeconomists have devoted almost no effort to modeling actual empirical expectations data, instead assuming all agents' expectations are 'rational.' This paper takes up the challenge of modeling empirical household expectations data, and shows that a simple, standard model from epidemiology does a remarkably good job of explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the 'rational expectations' benchmark. Furthermore, a microfoundations or 'agent-based' version of the model may be able to explain, in a way that still permits aggregation, stark rejections of the pure rational expectations framework like Souleles's (2002) finding that members of different demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
1297. Complementarity and Social Networks
- Author:
- Yann Bramoulle
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- I investigate complementarity games played on graphs, which model negative externalities embedded in structures of interaction. On the complete graph, the traditional economic analysis applies: the number of agents playing one strategy is proportional to its payoff. I show that, in general and contrary to coordination games, the structure crucially influences the equilibria. On an important class of graphs, called bipartite graphs, the equilibria do not depend on strategies' payoffs. On certain highly asymmetric graphs, an increase in the payoff of a strategy even decreases the number of agents playing this strategy. In most cases, equilibria do not maximize welfare.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
1298. Open Doors
- Author:
- Paul Masson, Michael Pomerleano, and Robert E Litan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Foreign direct investment in financial firms in emerging markets surged in the 1990s, although not equally in all places. The main beneficiaries: Latin America and Central Europe, with Asia a distant third. This conference report summarizes findings on the impacts—mainly positive—of this significant inflow of funds and managerial and technical know-how, as well as recommendations for policies toward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the future. The main recommendation: countries with restrictions generally should relax them, even when their own financial systems are weak. At the same time, foreign entry gives rise to new policy challenges, supervisory and competitive, which emerging markets need to confront both unilaterally and with cooperation from source country governments.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe
1299. Report from Havana: Time for a Reality Check on U.S. Policy toward Cuba
- Author:
- Jonathan G. Clarke and William Ratliff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Official U.S. and Cuban depictions of the effects of the U.S. embargo differ notably from Cuban economic reality. This report, based on the authors' recent visits to Havana and interviews with top Cuban officials, dissidents, and other private citizens, shows that the embargo is not responsible for Cuba's poor economic condition—as Havana claims—nor has it been effective at achieving Washington's goal of isolating the Cuban regime.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and Havana
1300. Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn From Financial Indicators
- Author:
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- The rating agencies' and bank supervisors' records of prompt identification of banking problems in emerging markets has not been satisfactory. This paper suggests that such deficiencies could be explained by the use of financial indicators that, while appropriate for industrial countries, do not work in emerging markets. Among the conclusions, this paper shows that the most commonly used indicator of banking problems in industrial countries, the capital-to-asset ratio, has performed poorly as an indicator of banking problems in Latin America and East Asia. This is because of (a) severe deficiencies in the accounting and regulatory framework and (b) lack of liquid markets for bank shares, subordinated debt and other bank liabilities and assets needed to validate the “real” worth of a bank as opposed to its accounting value.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- East Asia and Latin America