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1241. NAFTA Dispute Settlement Systems

Author:
Gary Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Drawing on the 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) extended dispute settlement provisions to cover more ground. In fact, within NAFTA there are six dispute settlement systems. NAFTA Chapter 11 is designed to resolve investor-state disputes over property rights; Chapter 14 creates special provisions for handling disputes in the financial sector via the Chapter 20 dispute settlement process (DSP); Chapter 19 establishes a review mechanism to determine whether final antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) decisions made in domestic tribunals are consistent with national laws; and Chapter 20 provides government-to-government consultation, at the ministerial level, to resolve high-level disputes. In addition, the NAFTA partners created interstate dispute mechanisms regarding domestic environmental and labor laws under the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) and the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAAL C), respectively. This chapter examines the first four dispute settlement systems; the NAAEC and NAALC systems are evaluated elsewhere in this book.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and North America

1242. Democratic Politics in Latin America: New Debates and Research Frontiers

Author:
Gerardo Munck
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
This assessment of research on contemporary democratic politics in Latin America is organized around the distinction between institutional and alternative approaches. Initially it considers institutionalism on its own terms and, through an assessment of the debate about the institutional causes of gridlock, draws attention to key strengths of this literature. Thereafter, some of the limitations of an institutional approach are addressed and the possibility of combining insights developed from institutional and alternative theoretical perspectives is emphasized. The suggested terms of integration, however, are not symmetric. With regard to causal theorizing, the need for institutionalists to borrow ideas, especially from the broader literature on political regimes, is underlined. With regard to theorizing outcomes, in contrast, the need for students of the quality of democracy to incorporate contributions made by institutionalists is highlighted. Throughout, various pointed suggestions to advance research are offered.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

1243. Picking Up the Pieces: Comparing the Social Impact of Finacial Crisis in Mexico and Argentina

Author:
Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
After a committed process of macroeconomic stabilization that began during the mid-1980s in most of Latin America, many observers began to speak of the need for a “second generation” of reforms that could more firmly establish the bases for economic growth and correct for longstanding distributional inequities. By the mid-1990s serious reformers like Argentina and Mexico seemed to be on the cusp of tackling this distributional backlog by launching so-called second phase market reforms meant to correct for earlier shortcomings in the social realm (Naím 1995; Pastor and Wise 1999). However, in both cases, financial crises erupted: Mexico's crash of December 1994, which saw a forty percent devaluation of the peso and a massive outflow of portfolio capital; and, more recently, Argentina's 2002 meltdown, which while simmering since the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, finally caused the country's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to be abandoned.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

1244. The Bombardier-Embraer Dispute and its Implications for Western Hemisphere Integration

Author:
Jonathan P. Doh
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Government subsidies are a pervasive problem for international trade and economic development. Subsidies distort investment decisions, generally squander scarce public resources, skew public expenditures toward unproductive uses, unfairly discriminate against efficient industries and firms, and prompt wasteful overconsumption of some products over others. Despite efforts to limit subsidies through trade and investment policy disciplines, subsidization remains a constant on the global trade policy and international business landscape.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

1245. Radical Groups in Mexico Today

Author:
Gustavo Hirales Morán
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Since January 1, 1994, the day when the armed uprising of the Zapatista Army for National Liberation (EZLN) was announced, it has been evident that Mexico is facing a second generation of radical organizations. The first generation, dating back to the 1970s, consisted of armed groups made up mainly of students, rural classroom teachers, and campesinos (i.e., subsistence farmers and agricultural workers along with their families). This generation's choice to pursue armed struggle revealed a trio of influences: Cuba's experience, socialist ideology, and the outrage and indignation produced by the repression and crackdown on nonviolent avenues of political opposition unleashed under the governments of Gustavo Díaz Ordaz (1964–1970) and Luis Echeverría Álvarez (1970–1976).
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

1246. North American Economic Integration Policy Options

Author:
Earl H. Fry
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
At the end of 2003, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will have been in effect for a decade, and although the accord will not be fully implemented for another five years, almost all of its important provisions are already in place. The model for NAFTA was the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), which was put in motion in 1989 and was to be fully implemented within 10 years but was superseded by NAFTA after only five years in operation. NAFTA itself has created the world's largest free-trade area, encompassing the United States, Mexico, and Canada; 21.3 million square miles of territory; 422 million people; almost $12 trillion in yearly production; and $615 billion in annual three-way merchandise trade. North American trade, investment, government-to-government, and people-to-people exchanges have increased dramatically over the past decade and decisionmakers in Washington, D.C., Mexico City, and Ottawa will soon have to consider whether continental economic integration should move to the next level in the form of a customs and monetary union or even a common market possessing many of the attributes of the European Union (EU).
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Canada, Latin America, Central America, North America, Mexico, and Ottawa

1247. The Spring 2002 Term of the Mexican Congress

Author:
Jeffrey A. Weldon
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The spring session of the second year of the 58th Legislature in Mexico, in comparison with most recent years, was more productive than average. Although there were a few major negative incidents, the strained relationship between the executive and legislative branches did not lead to complete paralysis on executive legislation.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Central America, and Mexico

1248. U.S.-Mexico Binational Council Report: U.S-Mexico Transboundary Water Management: The Case of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo

Author:
Armand Peschard-Sverdrup and Meghan Bishop
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Although the highly publicized water dispute between the United States and Mexico has focused attention in both nations on the issue, the need to address comprehensively the problem of water scarcity and water quality is not one that is limited to the U.S.-Mexico border region. In fact, water scarcity is increasing around the world and approaching crisis conditions in many regions. It is a phenomenon that is impacting the lives of a growing number of the world's people. According to the United Nations, 31 countries in the world are currently facing water stress and scarcity. Over 1 billion people have no access to clean drinking water, and almost 3 billion people have no access to sanitation services. It is estimated that today 166 million people in 18 countries suffer from water scarcity, while another 270 million in 11 additional countries are considered "water stressed." By the year 2025, the world's population will have increased by more than 2.6 billion, but as many as two-thirds of those people will be living in conditions of serious water shortage, and one-third will be living with absolute water scarcity. By 2025, the affected populations will increase to about 3 billion people, or about 40 percent of the world's population, most of them in the poorest countries. As a result of this daunting diagnosis, there is now a consensus that the severity of the problem requires a strategic approach that emphasizes equitable and sustainable management of water resources.
Topic:
Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and North America

1249. Survey of SSR Regional and Sub-Regional Networks

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
Abstract:
The enclosed survey was conducted in order to map all regional and sub regional networks working in the field of Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean. The objective of mapping SSR networks in these regions is multi-fold. Firstly it is imperative that at a time when security has taken a truly global dimension and span, academics and practitioners alike are aware of the state of SSR in different regions. Certain similarities and patterns emerge during the analysis that offer lessons and directions for actors wishing to become involved in SSR in a particular region, or searching for guidance in applying best practices and lessons learned to particular situations. Secondly, exchange of experience and ideas is especially important in supporting South-South dialogue, but the value of cooperation cannot be overemphasized given the often-unclear context in which SSR activities take place. The mapping exercise serves as an entry-point for practitioners to identify existing networks and their areas of expertise. Opportunities for collaboration are made possible by identifying other organisations that are pursuing similar goals. Additionally, the map of SSR networks serves to identify possible gaps in scope of activity and highlights entry points for other organisations and networks to further the objectives of security sector management and reform. Lastly, this exercise will serve as a vehicle for the GFN-SSR to develop ways to strengthen its activities. One way in which the GFN-SSR is already adding value is through the development of its website, which, inter alia, offers a newsletter in four languages, i.e., English, French, Spanish and Portuguese. An activity to reinforce the access to information for those in areas of poor connectivity is already being developed through the conception of a CD-ROM containing all the existing website information for distribution on a timely basis to interested organisations.
Topic:
Security, Development, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa, America, Europe, Asia, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

1250. Security Sector Reform in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Owen Greene
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
Abstract:
The paper aims to outline some key issues and processes relating to security sector reform in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper defines SSR in this regional context and then identifies and discusses some of the key issues and priorities for SSR in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper then sketches the history of international assistance to promote SSR, in the three subregions: South America, Central America and the Caribbean. The paper ends with some short conclusions.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

1251. Clientelism in Flux: Democratization and Interest Intermediation in Contemporary Mexico

Author:
Blanca Heredia Rubio
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
The buoyant optimism spurred by the rush to democracy throughout Latin America along with the high, even if less widespread, hopes about market reform of the last decade have given way to a different mood. The excitement associated with large scale social change has subsided and a certain disillusionment, a hangover of sorts, has begun to set in.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Mexico

1252. Traditional and Non-Traditional Security Issues in Latin America: Evolution and Recent Developments

Author:
Richard Narich
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the second part of the 20th century, the world's attention focused twice on Latin America, first during the Cuban crisis in 1962 and then during the conflicts in Central America in the Eighties and Nineties. The situation there had a direct impact on the general balance of the planet. It was a hot spot. Today this region is not on the agenda anymore: it no longer represents a global threat in terms of security.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

1253. Contagion: An Empirical Test

Author:
Jon Wongswan
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Using the conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), this paper tests for the existence and pattern of contagion and capital market integration in global equity markets. Contagion is defined as significant excess conditional correlation among different countries' asset returns above what could be explained by economic fundamentals (systematic risks). Capital market integration is defined as the situation in which only systematic risks are priced. The paper uses a panel of sixteen countries, divided into three blocs: Asia, Latin America, and Germany-U.K.-U.S., for the period from 1990 through 1999. The results show evidence of contagion and capital market integration. In addition, contagion is found to be a regional phenomenon.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Asia, Germany, and Latin America

1254. The Caribbean Security Scenario at the Dawn of the 21st Century: Continuity, Change, Challenge

Author:
Ivelaw L. Griffith
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
The two epigraphs — one by a noted scholar and erstwhile policyactor and the other by a respected policymaker with intellectual acumen — capture core elements of the twin realities of continuity and change that define the security scenario of the contemporary Caribbean. Proximity, vulnerability, and instability are not new features of the Caribbean or of Caribbean-United States dynamics; they represent some of the continuity from times past. However, they assume special character because of the terrorism tragedy that has “cast a pall across the whole hemisphere,” to quote Barbados Prime Minister Arthur.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Caribbean, and North America

1255. A Resurgent MERCOSUR: Confronting Economic Crises and Negotiating Trade Agreements

Author:
Thomas Andrew O'Keefe
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Almost from the day it was launched on March 26, 1991, skeptics have predicted the imminent collapse of the Common Market of the South (Mercado Común del Sur — MERCOSUR), while some economists have fretted about the project's supposed protectionist designs to create a trade fortress. The most memorable example of the latter was a 1996 report written by a World Bank economist that relied on out-of-date trade statistics and attributed to MERCOSUR policies that were actually pre-existing national automotive regimes. More recent tirades have tried to blame Argentina's economic meltdown on its MERCOSUR membership. A well-known economist from a New York City investment bank has even gone as far as to proclaim MERCOSUR dead. Given all the invective directed against efforts to integrate South America's Southern Cone economically over the past decade, it is not surprising that MERCOSUR is misunderstood by many in North America.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

1256. The Changing Landscape of Financial Services in Latin America's Large Emerging Markets

Author:
Jerry Haar
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
The Latin American financial services sector has been profoundly affected by the sweeping economic, legal, and regulatory reforms of the 1990s. Conversely, the sector has extensively impacted the economic liberalization process that has been the hallmark of Latin American development from the late 1980s through the present. This paper highlights trends in the financial services sector; discusses the key drivers of change, both globally and regionally; illustrates how three of those drivers — mergers and acquisitions (M), technology, and customer demand — are revolutionizing this sector; and reviews the organizational and strategic responses by financial firms to an increasingly competitive environment.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Latin America

1257. Mexico at an Impasse

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
ecent events elsewhere in Latin America–specifically, an acute political crisis in Venezuela and a groundbreaking election in Brazil–have pushed Mexico off the front pages of American newspapers. Nonetheless, it is worth remembering that Mexico, our closest and most important Latin neighbor, is a major customer for our products and the source of many essential imports, most notably oil and gas. It is also a country with which we have intense cultural and human relations, far more indeed than most Americans realize. Its progress toward becoming an open and more modern society therefore deserves far more attention. President Vicente Fox is nearing the midpoint of a six-year presidential term. The next major marker will be elections in July concerning all the seats in the lower national legislative chamber, all the governorships, and the legislative assemblies in eleven of Mexico’s thirty-two states.[i] These elections inevitably will be interpreted in part as a referendum on Fox’s administration–the first drawn from an opposition party in more than seven decades. At the same time, they will tell us to what degree the ousted Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has managed to reinvent itself and become nationally competitive in a more pluralistic and open environment.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Immigration, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Mexico

1258. Non-Cooperative Dynamics of Multi-Agent Teams

Author:
Robert L. Axtell
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Results on the formation of multi-agent teams are reviewed and extended. Conditions are specified under which it is individually rational for agents to spontaneously form coalitions in order to engage in collective action. In a cooperative setting the formation of such groups is to be expected. Here we show that in non-cooperative environments—presumably a more realistic context for a variety of both human and software agents—self-organized coalitions are capable of extracting welfare improvements. The Nash equilibria of these coalitional formation games are demonstrated to always exist and be unique. Certain free rider problems in such group formation dynamics lead to the possibility of dynamically unstable Nash equilibria, depending on the nature of intra-group compensation and coalition size. Yet coherent groups can still form, if only temporarily, as demonstrated by computational experiments. Such groups of agents can be either long-lived or transient. The macroscopic structure of these emergent 'bands' of agents is stationary in sufficiently large populations, despite constant adaptation at the agent level. It is argued that assumptions concerning attainment of agent-level (Nash) equilibrium, so ubiquitous in conventional economics and game theory, are difficult to justify behaviorally and highly restrictive theoretically, and are thus unlikely to serve either as fertile design objectives or robust operating principles for realistic multi-agent systems.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

1259. Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Civil Violence: Guatemala 1977-1986

Author:
Timothy R. Gulden
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper examines detailed records from the civil conflict in Guatemala between 1977 and 1986. It reveals a number of novel patterns which support the use of complex systems methods for understanding civil violence. It finds a surprising, non-linear relationship between ethnic mix and killing; thereby inviting analysis based on group dynamics. It shows the temporal texture of the conflict to be far from smooth, with a power spectrum that closely resembles that of other, better understood, complex systems. The distribution of incident sizes within the data seems to fall into two distinct sets, one of which, corresponding to "regular" conflict, is Zipf distributed, the other of which includes acts of genocide and is distributed differently. This difference may indicate that that agents of the state were proceeding under different types of orders. These results provide an empirical benchmark for the modeling of civil violence and may have implications for conflict prevention, peace keeping, and the post-conflict analysis of command structures.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala

1260. The IMF's Dilemma in Argentina: Time for a New Approach to Lending?

Author:
Carol Graham and Paul Robert Masson
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In recent years, the international financial system has faced tremendous challenges, from the Asia, Russia, and Brazil crises in the late 1990s, to Argentina's default and ensuing economic collapse in 2002 to new worries about a possible default in Brazil. An increasing number of observers are questioning the way the international financial institutions manage these crises. An alternative approach that is endorsed in principle by many—including Horst Köhler, the new managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—is a move toward more selective lending with fewer conditions, with the decision to lend based on a more general and ultimately political assessment of the recipient government's capacity to deliver on its promises. Argentina provides a potential test bed for this approach.
Topic:
International Organization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America