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1202. Social Insurance Regimes: crises and 'reform' in the Argentine and Brazil, since c. 1900
- Author:
- Colin Lewis and Peter Lloyd-Sherlock
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The paper examines the structural and organisational problems of social insurance systems in Brazil and the Argentine in order to illuminate current debates about pension 'reform'. Much of the present discussion depicts social insurance 'crisis' as a modern phenomenon. Similarly, preoccupations about the macroeconomic objectives of reform - profitable pension funds as an adjunct to capital market deepening, about sustainability - the financial viability of systems, and about equity and coverage, are often assumed to be peculiar to the late twentieth century. The papers stresses the generational (or cyclical) nature of crises that have plagued social insurance regimes in both countries. It also identifies what may be learnt from differences, as well as similarities, between the two systems - not least the relatively larger historic role the private sector and earlier substantive provision for rural workers in Brazil. Following an appraisal of different 'models' (individual 'capitalised' accounts versus pay-as-you-go schemes and monopolistic state systems versus pluralistic/competitive arrangements), the paper concludes with an evaluation of the administrative and financial stability of current schemes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America
1203. The Argentine Implosion
- Author:
- Luigi Manzetti
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- In December 2001, Argentina recorded the world's largest default ever, as it failed to honor payments on its US$132 billion foreign debt. Since then, five presidents have been in power, the Argentine peso has been devalued by 120 percent, and the banking system has virtually collapsed, dragging the economy into a depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2002. Argentina's per capita income has become one of the worst in Latin America, and, as a result, more than one-third of its people live under the poverty line. 1 Argentines' confidence in their elected officials has disappeared. By most accounts, the country has literally imploded to a degree that has no precedent in Latin America's contemporary history. This is particularly bewildering, considering that only 10 years ago Argentina was hailed around the world as a model of successful economic reforms, with standards of living that were not only the highest in the region but comparable to those of some southern European countries. How could Argentina go from role model to international outcast so quickly? Some place the blame on external shocks created by the financial crises in Mexico (1995), Indonesia (1997), Thailand (1998), and Russia (1998). Others say the cause of the problem was misguided policy advice from the International Monetary Fund (Stiglitz 2002). Yet, most analyses ascribe much of the trouble to the Convertibility Law's fixed exchange rate policy adopted in 1991.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Thailand
1204. The New Cuban Immigration in Context
- Author:
- Max J Castro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Cuban migration to the United States predates Fidel Castro's revolution by more than a century. As historian Félix Masud-Piloto writes, “The Cuban presence in Florida dates back to the 1830s when Cuban cigar manufacturers, trying to avoid high U.S. tariffs, relocated their operations in Key West.” 1 The wars of independence brought a substantial cohort of exiles. In the 1880s, the Cuban community of Key West would spawn a second Cuban immigrant community based on tobacco manufacture: Ybor City in Tampa, Florida. New York City, Philadelphia, and New Orleans also had significant Cuban emigré populations in the late nineteenth century.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and Florida
1205. Colombia's Conflicts: The Spillover Effects of a Wider War
- Author:
- Richard Millet
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- In today's global village, there is no such thing as a purely national crisis. Every conflict has spillover effects, ranging from trade disruptions to refugee flows to violent clashes. In the past, it was common for nations to believe that promoting conflict in neighboring states could somehow enhance their security, but in the twenty-first century it has become increasingly obvious that conflicts in one nation constitute a security threat to all who share common borders. Today, it is more often the weakness rather than the strength of states that threatens to disrupt the search for peace and stability.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America
1206. The Dominican Republic's 2000 Presidential Election: The U.S. Role in Supporting the Process
- Author:
- Kevin Michael O'Reilly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Dominicans elected Rafael Hipólito Mejía Domínguez their president on May 16, 2000. He took office on August 16, 2000. Mejía, the candidate of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Dominicano — PRD), won 1,593,231 votes or 49.87 percent of the ballots cast in an essentially three-way race with Danilo Medina of the Party of Dominican Liberation (Partido de la Liberación Dominicana — PLD) and former President Joaquín Balaguer of the Social Christian Reformist Party (Partido Reformista Social Cristiano — PRSC). Medina won 24.94 percent of the vote (796,923) to finish second, with Balaguer only fractions of a percentage point behind, at 24.60 percent (785,926). Turnout, at just over 76 percent, was high by historical standards. Although two shooting deaths marred the campaign's closing days, relatively little violence accompanied the voting compared to previous Dominican elections. Since 1994, Dominican electoral law had called for a runoff between the top two vote winners if no candidate passed the 50-percent-plus-one mark, but Medina conceded on May 17, after Balaguer acknowledged that he could not deliver the entire PRSC vote to the PLD in a second round of voting. Balaguer announced, “For the good of the country, we waive our right to participate in a second round.” The country's Central Electoral Board (Junta Central Electoral — JCE) certified Mejía's victory on May 18, 2000.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Caribbean
1207. The U.S. Engagement with Colombia: Legitimate State Authority and Human Rights
- Author:
- Gabriel Marcella
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- September 11, 2001, reshaped international relations and had a profound impact on the strategic equation in Colombia. The challenge of what U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called “draining the swamp” of terrorism with global links resonated deeply in Bogotá and among the insurgent forces: the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia — FARC), the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional — ELN), and the paramilitaries, among them, the United Self- defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia — AUC). Though these groups already appeared on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist organizations, as of 9/11 they formed part of a broader international threat assessment. Two weeks into 2002, an ill-conceived “peace process,” initiated by President Andrés Pastrana with the FARC in 1999, was r esuscitated at the last minute before an impending military offensive by the government against the FARC was started. President Pastrana, “risking all for peace,” had extended himself, his negotiators, and his government's credibility as far as he could for three years — with nothing to show for such extensive efforts other than his administration's and the Colombian citizens' frustration and virtual surrender to the FARC of national sovereignty over a demilitarized zone ( despeje ) the size of Switzerland, located in San Vicente del Caguán, an area south of Bogotá.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America
1208. Protecting the Environment While Opening Markets in the Americas
- Author:
- William Krist
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Market Access Negotiations are a major element of the efforts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2020. If successful, these negotiations will remove all tariff and nontariff barriers to trade among the 34 participating countries on all nonagricultural products, including forest and mining products, fish, and manufactured goods.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America
1209. The Dominican Diaspora Revisited: Dominicans and Dominican-Americans in a New Century
- Author:
- Max J. Castro and Thomas D. Boswell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- The economy has been growing rapidly in recent years. Democracy is increasingly consolidated. The rate of birth has dropped significantly, and the level of education has risen.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and Migration
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Caribbean
1210. The Effectiveness of Special Interventions in Latin American Public Primary Schools
- Author:
- Joan B. Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- In pursuit of improved quality and more equity in education, public primary schools in Latin America have utilized several compensatory educational policies that include special interventions such as food aid programs, distribution of free textbooks, classroom libraries, in-service teacher training, extra classes and extra school sessions, tutors and mentors, and scholarships. Using data on children and schools in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, this paper presents the results of cross-country, empirical estimates of the effects of these interventions on language and math achievement and on the likelihood of promotion, both at the school level and at the level of individual children. Language and math achievement was measured by scores on UNESCO-developed language and math examinations administered to each of the 2,048 children in the sample. In addition, the paper addresses whether a particular intervention is equally effective in poor and non-poor environments and whether these compensatory interventions in fact target those who need them most. Empirical findings suggest that the most effective programs are classroom libraries, distribution of textbooks, distribution of food, and teacher training. For programs to be compensatory, the research indicates that better targeting of scarce resources toward low-income schools and children is needed
- Topic:
- Development, Education, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile
1211. Argentina — Beleaguered Banks
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of the economic crisis on the Argentine banking sector. The collapse of the peso-dollar peg dealt a serious blow to the already weakened Argentine banking system, which now faces a significant restructuring process.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
1212. Financial Regulation and Supervision in Emerging Markets. The Experience of Latin America since the Tequila Crisis
- Author:
- Barbara Stallings and Rogerio Studart
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper deals with changes in the regulation and supervision of the Latin American financial sector in the aftermath of the 'Tequila Crisis' of 1994–95. While it finds that both have improved, regulation and supervision cannot resolve all problems; good macroeconomic policy and performance are essential complements. This is especially true because of the procyclical nature of financial activity. The paper presents both regional data for Latin America, contrasting it with other emerging markets, and four country case studies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico). The latter show how individual country characteristics and experiences affect the operation of the financial systems. We close with some policy recommendations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Chile
1213. Non-Financial Corporate Risk Management and Exchange Rate Volatility in Latin America
- Author:
- Graciela Moguillansky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This article studies the currency risk management of multinational companies with investments in Latin American countries. The analysis is centred on episodes of currency or financial shocks, searching into the behaviour of the financial management of a firm expecting a significant devaluation. This allowed us to explore the interaction and transmission mechanisms between the microeconomic behaviour and the macroeconomic impact on the foreign exchange market. The analysis was carried out interviewing financial managers of multinational companies from different sectors with headquarters in the United Kingdom and Spain, by reviewing literature on business and currency risk management, and by analysing some surveys on financial risk management in developed countries.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, South America, Latin America, and Spain
1214. How Optimal are the Extremes? Latin American Exchange Rate Policies During the Asian Crisis
- Author:
- Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Guillermo Larraín
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared to Argentina and Mexico. This is linked apparently to a loss in the band's credibility, associated to policy mismanagement and an over-appreciation in the biennium before the crisis. Optimal exchange rate regimes vary across time and the conjuncture. Exit strategies are part of the election of the optimal system, including a flexible policy package rather than a single rigid policy tool.
- Topic:
- Development and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile
1215. Do Public Transfers Crowd Out Private Transfers? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico
- Author:
- Pedro Albarran and Orazio P. Attanasio
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper will use the data from the PROGRESA evaluation to show the extent to which such a programme crowds out private transfers. An interesting aspect of the paper is the fact that it can use the randomization (one-third of the villages in the sample were randomized in the programme for evaluation purposes).
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
1216. Paramilitarism, Death Squads, and Government in Latin America
- Author:
- Adam Jones
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This paper, the first of a planned two-part analysis, examines the institutions of paramilitarism, death squads, and warlords in Latin America, with a focus on the case-studies of Mexico and Peru. It begins with an overview of the small comparative literature on paramilitary movements and death squads around the world, seeking to define and clarify the terminology. The literature on "warlordism" is then reviewed, and the similarities and distinctions between paramilitaries and warlords are considered. Lastly, I examine two case -studies that have not, as yet, received extended attention in the comparative literature: Mexico and Colombia. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and charting a course for future investigations. (PDF, Spanish, 40 pages, 2.76 MB) Â Â Â
- Topic:
- Civil Society and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Peru
1217. Bicameralismo en América Latina
- Author:
- Jorge Schiavon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- More than half of the countries in Latin America have bicameral legislatures, and the vast majority of the larger countries in the region have dual legislative bodies. This paper explores whether bicameralism is an important institutional variable in the functioning of Latin American systems. It develops a typology of the different types of bycameralism in the region based on several specific characteristics that differentiate between them, and discusses the relevance of the institutional configuration of the system and the party configuration of the chambers for bicameralism. Then, it constructs a veto gates and players model in order to analyze the causal mechanism through which bicameralism impacts Latin America systems. Finally, it presents two examples (one with variation in time, the other with variation in space) to support the argument that bicameralism matters depending on its type, the institutional configuration, and party composition of the system.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
1218. Ámbito y Papel de los Especialistas en las Reformas en los Sistemas de Salud: Los Casos de Brasil y México
- Author:
- Raquel Abrantes Pêgo and Célia Almeida
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this study is to consider the role played by the community of public health experts in the contemporary health sector reform process. It discusses the issue based on the case of Brazil and Mexico, because, as specialists, public health researchers in both countries have directed their participation to influencing the conflict over the reorientation of health policy in their respective countries. One of their approaches has consisted in developing a new cognitive framework that underpins technical health sector reform projects understood as policy proposals with technical content. Our purpose is to show that these experts manage to influence the national debate over health sector reform when the technical and scientific discussion leaves the academic sphere and goes to the realm of social and political debate. In our opinion, this occurs because this technical and scientific knowledge has been held out, independently of its intrinsic value, as a political and ideological alternative platform for sustaining a health sector reform proposal which, once transformed into a policy project, has served to aggregate certain political and social forces and not others. The study sets out each case separately, in each showing first the emergence of a new body of thinking in the field of public health (Collective Health in Brazil and New Public Health in Mexico). It then demonstrates how these groups of experts have articulated and interacted with specific political and social forces within their respective societies, and analyses how they have become a political stream within health institutions in the struggle to control the sector's future.
- Topic:
- Development and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, Latin America, Central America, North America, and Mexico
1219. Contradiction Without Paradox: Evangelical Political Culture in the 1998 Venezuelan Elections
- Author:
- David Smilde
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Venezuelan Evangelicals' responses to candidates in that country's 1998 presidential election seem to confirm the view that their political culture is inconsistent, contradictory, and paradoxical. Not only were Evangelicals just as likely as the larger population to support nationalist former coup leader Hugo Chávez, they rejected Venezuela's one Evangelical party after it made a clientalist pact with the infamous social democratic party candidate. In this article, concepts from recent cultural theory are used to examine qualitative data from these two voting behaviors. Ways to make sense of the contradictory nature of Evangelical political culture are suggested.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
1220. The Labor Movement in Democratic Chile, 1990-2000
- Author:
- Frank K. Volker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This article examines the experience of the Chilean labor movement during the first decade of democracy. In so doing, it calls attention to the need for further study of how institutional variables, such as labor legislations, influence labor movement strategies across different political regimes (authoritarian and democratic). Evidence from the Chilean case demonstrates that while important, exogenous variables such as new democratic governments and new labor legislations have only limited explanatory power with regard to labor movement strategies. This warrants a closer look at internal organizational aspects.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Chile