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1001. Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700

Author:
David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke, and Jeffrey G. Williamson
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures price over the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has commodity price volatility increased over time? The answer is no: there is little evidence of trend since 1700. Have commodities always shown greater price volatility than manufactures? The answer is yes. Higher commodity price volatility is not the modern product of asymmetric industrial organizations - oligopolistic manufacturing versus competitive commodity markets - that only appeared with the industrial revolution. It was a fact of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The answer is less. Three centuries of history shows unambiguously that economic isolation caused by war or autarkic policy has been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro-global policy has been associated with less commodity price volatility. Given specialization and comparative advantage, globalization has been good for growth in poor countries at least by diminishing price volatility. But comparative advantage has never been constant. Globalization increased poor country specialization in commodities when the world went open after the early 19th century; but it did not do so after the 1970s as the Third World shifted to labor-intensive manufactures. Whether price volatility or specialization dominates terms of trade and thus aggregate volatility in poor countries is thus conditional on the century.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and Latin America

1002. Practicing Peace, Living with War: Going Upriver in Colombia

Author:
Kimberly Theidon
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
It is disconcerting to share a hotel room with someone who needs to tell you in detail how he learned to use a machete to chop the human body up into unrecognizable chunks of flesh. Vladimiro's military training showed not only in his butchering prowess, but also in his upright posture, an odd juxtaposition of perfect etiquette and lethal brutality.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

1003. Using Social Power to Balance Soft Power: Venezuela's Foreign

Author:
Javier Corrales
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
President Hugo Cha´vez of Venezuela has achieved what no other Latin American leader has since the end of the Cold War: bringing security concerns in the Western Hemisphere back to U.S. foreign policy. Might Venezuela provoke a war against neighboring Colombia, spread weapons among insurgents abroad, disrupt oil sales to the United States, provide financial support to Hezbollah, al Qaeda or other fundamentalist movements, offer safe havens for drug dealers, invite Russia to open a military base on its territory, or even acquire nuclear weapons? These security concerns did not exist less than a decade ago, but today they occupy the attention of U.S. officials. Attention to these conventional security issues, however, carries the risk of ignoring what thus far has been Venezuela's most effective foreign policy tool in challenging the United States: the use of generous handouts abroad, peppered with a pro-poor, distribution-prone discourse. While the U.S. debate revolves around ''hard power'' and ''soft power,'' this other form can be called ''social power diplomacy.''
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, and Latin America

1004. Vulnerability and Resilience of the Middle Class in Latin America

Author:
Alberto Minujin and Guillermina Comas
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the vulnerability of the middle class in Latin America in face of the neo-liberal policies implemented in the region during recent decades and discusses possible policies and programs that promote the building and strengthening of democratic processes throughout the region. Changes in the Latin American middle class are examined. An important part of the middle class can be active participants in the process of building democracy and developing inclusive and equitable societies. This will require the implementation of policies and programs that promote the participation of the middle class in the public sphere.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Latin America

1005. What Happened to the Seasons? Changing seasonality may be one of the major impacts of climate change

Author:
Steve Jennings and John Magrath
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The timing of rain, and intra-seasonal rainfall patterns are critical to smallholder farmers in developing countries. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to cultivate and sow and harvest. It ultimately contributes to the success or failure of their crops. Worryingly, therefore, farmers are reporting that both the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons are changing. These perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and because the changes are described in remarkably consistent terms. In this paper, we relate the perceptions of farmers from several regions(East Asia, South Asia, Southern and East Africa, and Latin America) of how seasons are changing, and in some cases, how once distinct seasons appear to be disappearing altogether, and the impacts that these changes are having. We then go on to ask two critical questions. Firstly, do meteorological observations support farmers' perceptions of changing seasonality? Secondly, to what extent are these changes consistent with predictions from climate models? We conclude that changing seasonality may be one of the major impacts of climate change faced by smallholder farmers in developing countries over the next few decades. Indeed, this may already be the case. Yet it is relatively unexplored in the literature. We also suggest some of the key adaptation responses that might help farmers cope with these changes.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, East Asia, and Latin America

1006. Brazil and the Transatlantic Community in the Wake of the Global Crisis

Author:
Thomas J Trebat
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:
As the great global crisis eases its grasp, it is a time to reconsider relations between Brazil and the North, especially the United States and the European Union. While the world economy is still reeling, it is very possible that a new and more productive period in Brazil's relations with the US and Europe is possible. This positive outcome derives from numerous factors, most especially Brazil's “peaceful rise” to a more prominent global role and the arrival of the Obama administration whose promise of a new beginning in U.S. foreign policy has been greeted with such evident enthusiasm in Latin America.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Brazil, and Latin America

1007. Institutional development or direct support to the poor

Author:
Neil Webster
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
There are two fundamentally different understandings of how to bring about development. One argues that through the right policies it is possible to create an enabling environment for the development of people and societies. The other emphasises that development can only take place if those who are supposed to benefit from it, insist on it themselves. In the second understanding development cannot be created from above or from outside. So-called cash transfer programmes having spread from Latin America to Africa and Asia are based on this understanding as they transfer money to poor people on certain conditions. The question is to what extent these programmes contribute to development.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Latin America

1008. El papel del liderazgo partidista en el sistema de partidos en México

Author:
Juan Pablo Navarrete Vela
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
El presente trabajo aborda el tipo de liderazgo de los tres partidos fuertes en el sistema de partidos en México: Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) y el Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD). El periodo de estudio se ubica después de las elecciones presidenciales del año 2006, en el cual el PAN logró mantenerse en el Poder Ejecutivo.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

1009. Regularidades de la Política Exterior de Néstor Kirchner

Author:
Alejandro Simonoff
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
La política exterior del gobierno de Néstor Kirchner ha sido presentada por muchos analistas como un fenómeno fragmentado y contradictorio. Por ello, para analizarla creemos que hacerlo en clave autonómica es un buen ejercicio; seguir no sólo los términos teóricos de Juan Carlos Puig, sino también los ajustes e innovaciones de algunos de sus discípulos; Guillermo Figari, por ejemplo.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

1010. Comparing the Effectiveness of Accountability Mechanisms in Eastern Europe and Latin America

Author:
Vesselin Popovski, Johanna Stratton, and Kalle Huebner
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A society emerging from war or authoritarianism seeks to reckon with past human rights atrocities that, if not addressed, can threaten the state's legitimacy and democratic foundations. It is in the interests of sustainable peacebuilding and democratic consolidation to promote reconciliation and healing, and foster human rights and the rule of law. In order to achieve such a transformation over the long term, the organizational strategies, political styles and mechanisms used to consolidate democracy are of critical importance and deserve closer comparative analysis with the aim to provide valuable lessons for newly democratizing societies.
Topic:
Human Rights and Law
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Latin America

1011. Bolivia: Climate change, poverty and adaptation

Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Bolivia is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change for six basic reasons: It is one of the poorest countries in Latin America and suffers from one of the worst patterns of inequality. Low-income groups in developing countries are the most exposed to climate change impacts. It is the country in South America with the highest percentage of indigenous people, where much of the poverty and inequality is concentrated. It is one of the most bio-diverse countries in the world, with a wide variety of ecosystems that are vulnerable to different impacts from climate change. More than half of the country is Amazonian, with high levels of deforestation which adds to the vulnerability to flooding. Located in a climatically volatile region, it is one of the countries in the world most affected by 'natural' disasters in recent years. It is home to about twenty per cent of the world's tropical glaciers, which are retreating more quickly than predicted by many experts.
Topic:
Climate Change and Development
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Bolivia, and Amazon Basin

1012. Venezuela: Accelerating the Bolivarian Revolution

Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Hugo Chávez's victory in the 15 February 2009 referendum, permitting indefinite re-election of all elected officials, marked an acceleration of his “Bolivarian revolution” and “socialism of the 21st century”. Chávez has since moved further away from the 1999 constitution, and his government has progressively abandoned core liberal democracy principles guaranteed under the Inter-American Democratic Charter and the American Convention on Human Rights. The executive has increased its power and provoked unrest internally by further politicising the armed forces and the oil sector, as well as exercising mounting influence over the electoral authorities, the legislative organs, the judiciary and other state entities. At the same time, Chávez's attempts to play a political role in other states in the region are producing discomfort abroad. The September 2010 legislative elections promise to further polarise an already seriously divided country, while unresolved social and mounting economic problems generate tensions that exacerbate the risk of political violence.
Topic:
Political Violence and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Latin America and Venezuela

1013. Uribe's Possible Third Term and Conflict Resolution

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Colombia's efforts to resolve its half-century armed conflict and growing tensions with neighbours will be shaped by the decision on whether to change the constitution to enable President Álvaro Uribe to seek a second re-election in May 2010. This issue has dominated Colombian politics for over a year. Most appear to back a third term, seeing Uribe as the only politician with the credibility and capacity to maintain security gains and broaden economic well-being after August, when his mandate ends. His supporters believe he has demonstrated strong leadership in times of escalating regional tensions, especially with Venezuela and Ecuador. Others fear another change in the constitution and four more years of Uribe's rule will further weaken democratic judicial and legislative institutions and essential checks and balances. They warn that the process of enabling a second consecutive re-election has been plagued by irregularities and allegations of corruption and that a third term could result in continuation of a too narrow security strategy focused on elusive final military defeat of the insurgent FARC and ELN.
Topic:
Political Violence, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America

1014. Will World Bank and IMF Lending Lead to HIPC IV? Debt Deja-Vu All Over Again

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Four years ago, the G-7 pushed through an unprecedented initiative forcing the international financial institutions to cancel 100 percent of their outstanding debt claims on the world's poorest countries. Through the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), these heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) stand to receive up to $60 billion in debt relief over time. Moreover, the World Bank, African Development Bank, and IMF shareholders approved a new debt sustainability framework to govern future lending decisions and prevent the need for yet another round of systemic debt relief. All parties emerged from these landmark agreements confident that the dragon of unsustainable debt finally had been slain. However, several unsettling trends raise serious questions about the finality of these actions. First, World Bank and AfDB lending disbursement volumes to these very same HIPC countries remain very high, and nearly the same as compared to pre-MDRI. Emergency IMF lending in response to the global economic crisis has compounded the situation. Second, IMF and World Bank growth projections for HIPCs remain overly rosy compared to actual and historical performance. Our new dataset of IMF growth projections suggests a structural optimism of at least one percentage point per year. Third, HIPCs continue to experience significant volatility in country performance measures that has a direct impact on their ability to carry debt sustainably. Taken together, these findings suggest that donor countries should re-examine the issue of debt sustainability in low-income countries and the system for determining the appropriate grant/loan mix. The upcoming IDA and AfDF replenishment negotiations present a timely opportunity to do so. Absent assertive and corrective action, the international community may be faced with the prospect of a HIPC IV agreement in the not too distant future.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Latin America

1015. Colleagues for the America's Seminar with General Douglas Fraser, USAF

Author:
Col Jay Cope
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Based on 5 busy months as commander, U.S. Southern Command, including visits to eight countries, General Douglas Fraser shared his impressions of opportunities and challenges in Central and South America and the Caribbean. He set the stage for his emphasis on cooperation by discussing geographical, economic, cultural, and military-to-military linkages between the United States and its southern neighbors, citing numerous examples of collaboration, particularly among the armed forces.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, America, Latin America, and Caribbean

1016. Security Sector Reform Provisions in Peace Agreements

Author:
Eboe Hutchful
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
Abstract:
The experience of the United Nations in mediating peace agreements has demonstrated the importance of addressing security issues at the outset. Early arrangements, for example with regard to composition and roles of security forces, can have significant impact on peace implementation. Failure to address the requirements of effective and accountable security can sow the seeds for future conflict, as earlier peace processes in Sierra Leone demonstrated, or lead to large, economically unsustainable forces, as Uganda has addressed. Failure to take into account the security needs of marginalized and socially excluded groups, such as women and children, can create new security problems, as alarmingly high rates of sexual violence in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo demonstrate.
Topic:
Security and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Latin America, and Sierra Leone

1017. Democratic Governance and the Rule of Law: Lessons from Colombia

Author:
Gabriel Marcella
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Colombia has experienced conflict for decades. In the 1990s it was a paradigm of the failing state, beset with all manner of troubles: terrorism, kidnapping, murder, drug trafficking, corruption, an economic downturn of major scope, general lawlessness, and brain drain. Today the country is much safer, and the agents of violence are clearly on the defensive. Nonetheless, much work lies ahead to secure the democratic system. Security and the rule of law are fundamental to the task. As the monopoly over the legitimate use of force is established, democratic governance also needs the architecture of law: ministry of justice, courts, legislative scrutiny, law enforcement agencies, regulatory bodies, public defenders, police, correctional system, legal statutes, contracts, university level academic education to train lawyers, judges, and investigators, along with engagement with civil society to promote a culture of lawfulness. Security without the rule of law puts a society at risk of falling into a Hobbesian hell.
Topic:
Security, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

1018. Ready to Lead? Rethinking America's Role in a Changed World

Author:
Robin Niblett
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
During his inaugural address on 20 January 2009, Barack Obama declared to 'all other peoples and governments, who are watching today, know that we are ready to lead once more'. In the following four weeks to the publication of this report, President Obama has set the United States on a course that is meeting widespread approval around the world. He has ordered the closure as soon as possible of the Guantánamo Bay detention facilities and of other secret facilities outside the United States that had so undermined America's international credibility with its allies and confirmed the anti-US narrative of its opponents. He has appointed special envoys for Middle East Peace and to implement an integrated strategy for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. He has offered to 'seek a new way forward' with the Muslim world as well as to 'extend a hand' to authoritarian governments if they are willing 'to unclench [their] fist'. His Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has said that America will be more effective if it can 'build a world with more partners and fewer adversaries'. Both have recognized the virtues of pragmatism over ideology and the reality of interdependence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, Asia, and Latin America

1019. Latin America, the European Union and Cuba: Approaches towards Totalitarianism

Author:
Pablo Brum and Mariana Dambolena
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
This document seeks to study the UPR corresponding to the Cuban regime, which took place during the fourth working session of the UPR Working Group, in the period February 2nd-13th 2009, and its corresponding context. The focus is comparative between two regions of the world: Latin American governments and European governments.
Topic:
Government, European Union, and Totalitarianism
Political Geography:
Europe, Cuba, and Latin America

1020. Social Mobility in Bolivia is Finally Improving!

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the degree of social mobility in Bolivia, both by comparing to other Latin American countries, and by comparing social mobility at different points in time. While Bolivia had one of the lowest levels of social mobility in the region in 1997, the last 10 years have seen spectacular improvements, especially for rural and female teenagers. This is very good news, as it suggests that Bolivia has finally escaped the low mobility – low growth equilibrium where it has been stuck for so long.
Topic:
Development, Economy, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia