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81. Memo to Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa: Make the Right Priorities for the EU-CELAC Summit 2025

Author:
Renata Zilli
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The EU–CELAC Summit in Santa Marta, Colombia, in November comes at a time when both regions need to get down to business. The EU-CELAC cooperation has long offered both sides opportunities to advance their economic and strategic interests, but so far, they have not used them. Past summits have rarely moved beyond lofty declarations and have not matched the level of expectations. Since the first Rio Summit in 1992,[1] successive joint meetings between the two regions have highlighted shared values and cooperation on democracy, economic development, and sustainability. Yet, two decades of summitry have not yielded the tangible progress that citizens and businesses expect. In a world of heightened geopolitical rivalry, technological disruption, and recurring supply shocks, Europe and Latin America should make a deeper investment in their relationship. For the European Union, reducing overdependence on a small number of suppliers has become a strategic priority. For Latin America and the Caribbean, diversifying trade and investment partners is essential to avoid being squeezed between the US and China in their strategic competition. A forward-looking agenda on trade and economic security can transform EU–CELAC relations into a strategic Atlantic partnership. This agenda should prioritise: Deepening EU-CELAC economic security cooperation to mitigate supply chain shocks and the weaponisation of economic dependencies through trade diversification. Promoting the integration of regional value chains by fostering diversified comparative advantages across CELAC countries, enabling each to specialise in different segments of production. Funding digital infrastructure: Utilise the EU-LAC Global Gateway Investment Agenda to plug investment gaps, specifically in digital transformation. Completing trade agreement implementation: Use the cooperation to propel the full implementation of Association and Trade Agreements between the EU and CELAC partners, and accelerate the ratification of signed agreements while pushing ongoing processes like the modernisation of agreements with Mexico Make the EU-CELAC cooperation a springboard for a “Coalition of the Willing” for a rules-based international trade. [1] The first high-level meeting between the European Community and Latin American and Caribbean countries took place in 1999, launching the EU–LAC Strategic Partnership. This dialogue evolved into the current EU–CELAC framework in 2013, when the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States became the EU’s formal counterpart, giving the relationship a more structured and political foundation
Topic:
Security, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, and Caribbean

82. Women, Motherhood, and Structural Transformation. Insights from Rural Latin America

Author:
Mariana Marchionni, Julián Pedrazzi, and Maria Florencia Pinto
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Structural transformation—the shift from agriculture toward industry and services—is a defining feature of economic development, with the potential to reshape gender gaps in labor markets. Yet little is known about how this process has unfolded in rural Latin America, where women face a double disadvantage stemming from both gender and rurality. In this paper, we document the evolution of rural women’s labor market outcomes in 14 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2023, drawing on harmonized household surveys that provide comparable indicators across time and space. We complement this analysis with a pseudo-event study around the birth of the first child to estimate motherhood effects, and with time-use data from Mexico to explore household mechanisms that constrain women’s labor supply. Our results show that despite important educational progress, rural women continue to lag behind rural men and urban women in employment, hours worked, and earnings. Structural transformation has contributed to declining informality and rising participation in services and formal salaried jobs, but it has not closed rural-urban or gender gaps: unpaid family labor and other precarious forms of employment remain widespread. Motherhood further exacerbates these disadvantages. While rural mothers experience smaller short-term employment drops than urban mothers and show some recovery over time, they are increasingly pushed into unpaid work and low-skilled self-employment, reinforcing long-term income gaps. Evidence from Mexico suggests that this disadvantage is not primarily driven by childcare demands—similar across rural and urban mothers— but rather by heavier burdens of household chores, home production for own consumption, and lower access to labor-saving technologies. By providing the first systematic evidence on how structural transformation interacts with motherhood in rural Latin America, our paper makes two contributions. First, it fills a gap in the literature by offering a detailed, cross-country account of rural women’s labor market outcomes over two decades in a region where evidence has been scarce. Second, it brings together insights from the literature on structural change and child penalties, showing that structural transformation alone is insufficient to generate inclusive labor market opportunities for rural women when unpaid work and caregiving responsibilities remain unequally distributed.
Topic:
Children, Inequality, Rural, Gender, Structural Transformation, and Motherhood
Political Geography:
Latin America

83. The Potential Distributive Impact of AI-driven Labor Changes in Latin America

Author:
Matias Ciaschi, Guillermo Falcone, Santiago Garganta, Leonardo Gasparini, Octavio Bertín, and Lucía Ramírez-Leira
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices—the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the ComplementarityAdjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AIGenerated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)—to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first-order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI-related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Latin America

84. The Impact of Family Structure on Educational Attainment: An Analysis for Mexico Using EMOVI-2017

Author:
Martín Finkelstein
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Using the 2017 Mexican Social Mobility Survey (ESRU-EMOVI 2017), this study documents how family structure during upbringing is a key determinant of educational results. Individuals raised in two-parent households attain between 0.25 and 0.38 more years of education and show, on average, a two to three percentage point higher probability of completing higher education than their peers raised without one of their parents at home. An analysis of why individuals drop out of the education system indicates that differences in educational attainment may stem from a lack of opportunities. The evidence points to parental death as a significant contributor to this gap. Individuals who lose a parent during their formative years complete, on average, between 0.9 and 1 fewer years of education and are 3 to 5 percentage points less likely to complete higher education. The timing of parental death is critical: experiencing the loss of a parent during adolescence (between ages 13 and 18) is particularly detrimental to the likelihood of achieving key educational milestones.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Household, Social Mobility, and Family Structure
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

85. Potential Escalations: Scenarios in the Peru-Mexico Diplomatic Crisis

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In November 2025, Peru announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Mexico, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing crisis between these two Latin American nations. Peru justified this move by citing Mexico’s support for leftist politicians accused of orchestrating the attempted military coup of 2022, alongside Mexico’s decision to grant political asylum to former Peruvian Prime Minister Betssy Chávez. This development raises critical questions about the scope and consequences of Peru’s latest diplomatic escalation, as well as the broader implications for bilateral relations and regional dynamics in Latin America.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Political Crisis, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America, Mexico, and Peru

86. The Perspectives of Conservative American Think Tanks on U.S. Leadership for Latin America and the Administration of Donald Trump

Author:
Laura Pimental Barbosa
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
In this article, our focus is twofold: we seek to understand how relevant conservative/ libertarian think tanks perceive America’s position and policies toward Latin America in the 21st century, and their evaluation of Donald Trump’s foreign policy in Latin America. We carried out a qualitative content analysis (QCA) of the documents produced between 2016-2022 about Latin America during the Trump administration by four institutes – Heritage Foundation, Hudson Institute, American Foreign Policy Council, and the Cato Institute. Our findings reveal a consistent concern with how American leadership should advance conservative and libertarian values abroad, and a shared perception that Trump fell short in this regard — a failure seen as undermining U.S. regional leadership. This study seeks to address a gap in the literature on the perspectives of American conservative knowledge regimes toward Latin America, and to contribute to our understanding of how these political actors frame regional problems and legitimize their policy agendas.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Populism, Conservatism, Think Tanks, Donald Trump, and Qualitative Content Analysis
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

87. Emerging Powers and the Future of American Statecraft

Author:
Christopher S. Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The structure of international politics is changing in ways that are not fully appreciated in Washington. The United States has paid a great deal of attention to the rise of China in the last decade but much less to emerging powers whose rise will also shape the operating environment for American statecraft. No single emerging power will have an impact tantamount to China’s, but they will have a significant impact collectively due to their geopolitical weight and diplomatic aspirations. America has limited ability to influence the trajectory of these emerging powers, identified in this report as Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye. They have taken stances that contrast or directly clash with U.S. positions on China and on Russia over the past few years. Nearly all have voiced concerns about Washington’s approach to the war in Ukraine, even as they criticized Moscow’s invasion. Almost none would line up with the United States in a confrontation with China. Instead, they are likely to pursue highly self-interested foreign policies. Washington should expect that they will increasingly challenge some of its policies, sustain relationships with its adversaries, and press their own agendas on the global stage. The emerging powers’ statecrafts are shaped in large part by their drive for economic security. But their geographies, different preferences for world order, domestic politics, and defense relationships also play a role. Concerns about the strength of democracy in other countries, which has played an animating role in U.S. foreign policy for decades, are a lower priority for them, no matter how democratic they are. It will be a mistake for the United States to frame its relations with these emerging powers primarily as part of a competition for influence with China and Russia, however tempting it may be to do so. These powers are not swing states that will tilt decisively toward either side in a global great power competition. Most will resist any efforts to bring them into a U.S.-led camp as in the Cold War. Trying to make them do so would also risk strategic overreach by embroiling the United States too deeply in the emerging powers’ domestic politics or by expending its resources in pursuit of building ties that never materialize. A better approach for the United States would be to focus on negotiating interest-based deals with emerging powers while cordoning off areas of disagreement. These might include tailored market access and investment agreements, agreements on technology manufacturing, energy transition initiatives, efforts to combat deforestation, efforts to build public health infrastructure, and infrastructure investments. It would be wasteful of the United States to offer these countries security guarantees, but in some cases providing security assistance can serve its interests. Washington should accept that most of these countries will maintain close diplomatic, economic, and sometimes security relationships with China and probably Russia. Over the longer term, it will serve U.S. interests to strengthen the sovereignty of emerging powers when possible and cost-effective to do so. This will provide a bulwark against the undue expansion of China’s power and influence and help ensure that, even if they do not side with the United States, they are not drawn closely into the orbit of its major geopolitical competitors. Strengthening emerging powers’ sovereignty will also help boost their development as constructive powers with a stake in sustaining a peaceful world order conducive to global economic growth.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

88. Crossing the Storm: EZLN Marks 30 Years with a 120-year Plan

Author:
Ann Louise Deslandes
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The Zapatista liberation movement gathered in Chiapas to honor three decades of struggle and prepare for an uncertain future.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Political Movements, Post-Colonial, and Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN)
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

89. Latin America’s New Right Wings: Shifting Ideologies, Transnational Ties

Author:
Ernesto Bohoslavsky and Magdalena Broquetas
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
New far-right forces pose a growing threat to democracy across Latin America and the Caribbean. Read more in the Spring 2024 issue of the NACLA Report on the Americas.
Topic:
Climate Change, Democracy, Violence, Far Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

90. Honduras: A Narco-State Made in the United States

Author:
Laura Blume
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Although Juan Orlando Hernández was convicted of drug trafficking in a New York court, the United States has yet to own up to its role in fostering state-sponsored drug trafficking in Honduras.
Topic:
Conflict, Coup, Organized Crime, Drug Trafficking, and Narco-State
Political Geography:
Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America

91. Viva Palestina! NYC Student Encampments Spark National Rebellion

Author:
Mariana Navarrete Villegas
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
Latinx students are standing with Palestine. For them, the occupation and oppression of Palestine are inseparable from the U.S.- and Israel-backed militarization of Latin America.
Topic:
Genocide, Occupation, Protests, Political Movements, Students, and Militarization
Political Geography:
New York, Palestine, Gaza, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

92. “Oil for the Few” at Brazil's Export Ports

Author:
César Rodríguez Garavito
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
For a small farmer in Rio de Janeiro state, a private port catering to the fossil fuel industry has brought a decade-long struggle to remain on the land.
Topic:
Oil, Exports, Fossil Fuels, Port, and Farming
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and Rio de Janeiro

93. A Strategic Cross-Border Labor Alliance

Author:
David Bacon
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
A relationship between a U.S. and a Mexican union, forged in the face of NAFTA, has borne fruit over decades of struggle. Two leaders reflect on the importance of international solidarity.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Solidarity, Alliance, NAFTA, and Unions
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

94. Is Hugo Chávez to Blame for Venezuela’s Collapse?

Author:
Gabriel Hetland
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The country’s current economic and democratic crisis should not be used to erase Chávez’s impressive accomplishments in working to build 21st-century socialism.
Topic:
Socialism, Economic Crisis, Hugo Chavez, and Democratic Crisis
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

95. Dominican Republic’s Neofascist Paramilitaries Double Down on Right-Wing Repression

Author:
Amarilys Estrella
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
New expressions of ultranationalist violence censoring Black women and migrants harken back to the Trujillo dictatorship. Anyone deemed a threat to Dominican values is a potential target.
Topic:
Migration, Race, Violence, Radical Right, Paramilitary, Neofascism, and Ultranationalism
Political Geography:
Latin America and Dominican Republic

96. When the Earth Loses its Stewards

Author:
Alexia Gardner and Alex Reep
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
More than 1 million Colombians have been forced to flee their territories since the 2016 peace accords. As extractive industries and armed groups capitalize on displacement, biodiversity suffers.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Armed Forces, Displacement, Biodiversity, and Extractive Industries
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

97. Domestic regimes and national preferences as factors of regionalism’s crisis. The case of Guatemala’s regional integration policy

Author:
Francisco Santos-Carillo and Luis Andrés Padilla Vassaux
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The article analyzes the influence of internal factors in the Central American integration crisis, based on Guatemalan politics and from a liberal intergovernmental approach. The results confirm the relationship between national preferences, some alignment with the preferences of partner states, and the results and effects of the process. For Guatemala, integration is an ideational commitment conditioned by the absence of negative externalities for the interests of governments and other key actors. National preferences limited the scope and determined the institutional design. The identity commitment and the creation of regional institutions seem to be insufficient for integration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Regional Integration, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala

98. Regionalism and the Agenda 2030: Inequality and Decent Work in Mexico

Author:
Karina Lilia Pasquariello Mariano, Roberto Goulart Menezes, and Marcela Franzoni
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The present study analyzes the limits of regionalism in achieving SDG 8, with a focus on the Mexican reality. It is based on the hypothesis that the role of the national government is decisive for incorporation of the Agenda 2030 in cases of regionalism based on an intergovernmental dynamic. We argue that NAFTA had a limited impact on improving working conditions in Mexico, as it only affected export-oriented regions and sectors. Since 2019 there has been an increase in the minimum wage, which can be explained not only by enforcing the USMCA, but also by a compatibility between internal and external agendas. Therefore, the case of Mexico allows us to affirm that the national government was decisive for the incorporation of the Agenda 2030 in the context of intergovernmental agreements.
Topic:
Inequality, NAFTA, Regionalism, Work, and Agenda 2030
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

99. Regionalism Beyond Land Borders: Strengthening regional integration in Latin America and the Caribbean through blue economy policies

Author:
Thauan Santos and Charles S. Colgan
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
This article seeks to highlight the key role of the blue economy in fostering regional integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) based on the 2030 Agenda. By proposing a “beyond the boxes” approach, SDG 14 is not the only driver that stands out. Hence, we propose a regionalism beyond the state-centric and land borders, which will require reflecting on and rethinking theories, policies, and practices related to the foundations of regional integration, IR, and the 2030 Agenda itself. The methodology combines UN reports and data from ECLAC, WRI, FAO, UNEP-WCMC, UNESCOMAB, WWF, UN-DESA, and NOAA.
Topic:
Environment, Regional Integration, Oceans and Seas, Regionalism, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

100. Bottom-up regionality and the Sustainable Development Goals: civil society organizations shaping 2030 Agenda implementation in Latin America

Author:
Thiago Gehre Galvão, Mairon G. Bastos Lima, and Rodrigo Ramiro
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
Civil society organizations (CSOs) are shaping the formation of a bottom-up regionality in the context of the 2030 Agenda implementation. Using the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region as a case, this article unravels the pivotal role they play in the diffusion and incorporation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Drawing from qualitative content analysis of official documents, critical discourse analysis of primary and secondary sources, and semi-structured interviews, we understand CSOs as institutional entrepreneurs with specific motivations to engage and influence the regional governance process. While many challenges persist, civil society organizations are shaping 2030 Agenda implementation in LAC.
Topic:
Civil Society, Sustainable Development Goals, Regionalism, and Agenda 2030
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America