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821. Assessing Potential Inflation Consequences of QE after Financial Crises

Author:
Samuel Reynard
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Financial crises have been followed by different inflation paths which are related to monetary policy and money creation by the banking sector during those crises. Accounting for equilibrium changes and non-linearity issues, the empirical relationship between money and subsequent inflation developments has remained stable and similar in crisis and normal times. This analysis can explain why the financial crisis in Argentina in the early 2000s was followed by increasing inflation, whereas Japan experienced deflation in the 1990s and 2000s despite quantitative easing. Current quantitative easing policies should lead to increasing and persistent inflation over the next years.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America

822. Brazil: an emerging peacekeeping actor

Author:
Per M. Norheim-Martinsen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
As the presence of Western states in UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) has gradually decreased, new states have been filling the resultant void, although these operations remain wedded to Western ideas and standards of how such interventions should be carried out. However, as emerging powers like Brazil are now taking the lead on the ground, the question that this report seeks to shed light on is how this is starting to affect the way in which the UN carries out its PKOs. It assesses the Brazilian military lead in MINUSTAH in Haiti against the backdrop of the so-called “pacification” strategy currently employed in the favelas of Rio de Janeiro. It shows that rather than being a “transmission belt” for a traditional Western model of military intervention, Brazil's lead in MINUSTAH has had an added value, building on Brazilian experience with urban conflict, which is an area with which the UN and Western states are unfamiliar. In fact, several states, including the U.S., have started to look to Brazil when developing and adapting concepts for urban and anti-crime operations. This shows that as Brazil has become a more active participant in UN PKOs, it has also gradually begun to set the agenda for how the UN runs such operations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

823. The Twenty-first Century Expansion of the Transnational Drug Trade in Africa

Author:
Ashley Neese Bybee
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
In the last decade, West Africa emerged as a major transit hub for Latin American Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) transporting cocaine to Western Europe. Since that time, there has been cause for hope and despair. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and an array of international donors have made great strides in acknowledging the growing problem of drug trafficking and have implemented practical measures to stem this flow. All the while, the fears of many observers have been confirmed as the insidious effects of the drug trade have begun to take effect in many West African states. Consumption is on the rise and narco-corruption now undermines the rule of law and legitimate economic growth necessary for development and stability. One of the most alarming trends that place Africa and Africans on the radar of policy makers, law enforcement, and researchers alike is the number of new fronts on which the illicit drug trade is growing. Its geographic expansion beyond the relatively confined region of West Africa is now endangering East and Southern Africa. The arrival of new drugs to the region—heroin and Amphetamine-Type Stimulants (ATS, commonly referred to as synthetic drugs)—has been accompanied by the discovery of local manufacturing facilities to process them. Lastly, the growing level of involvement by Africans—who initially served as facilitators but now appear to be taking a more proactive role—raises concerns that a new generation of African DTOs is rising in the ranks. This paper examines how each of these trends are contributing to the twenty-first century expansion of the drug trade in Africa and summarizes some of the impacts they are having on the states and their populations.
Political Geography:
Africa, Latin America, and Western Europe

824. Human Trafficking: A Global Perspective

Author:
Emmania Rodriguez
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Louise Shelley's new book, Human Trafficking: A Global Perspective is the culmination of sixteen years of research, providing both an excellent introduction to human trafficking and a comprehensive examination of its growth. The book balances breadth and depth by combining firsthand accounts of field practitioners with the analyses of academic experts across the globe. Shelley illustrates how human trafficking's exponential growth during the last twenty years was fueled by regional conflicts, globalization, and climate change. These factors displace populations, and make them vulnerable to exploitation in sectors ranging from agriculture to sex work. Shelley believes that in order to stem human trafficking's current momentum there needs to be a concerted multilateral effort by organizations, government, and civil society, transcending political boundaries. In attempting to be thorough, Shelley occasionally includes some controversial research claims. For example, while discussing trafficking in the United States, Orlando Patterson is cited claiming that the prevalence of exploitation within the African American community arises from "centuries of slavery [emasculating] the role of the father and [encouraging] . . . breeding of children without attention to their supervision." However, Shelley refers to other experts, and her approach provides readers with a broad spectrum of knowledge. For those unfamiliar with the subject matter, Shelley's research incorporates historical context and explains the push and pull factors behind human trafficking. Experts will find the book's truly global perspective satisfying. Case studies cover multiple countries in every major region, from developing nations such as Nepal and China in Asia and Honduras and Brazil in Latin America, to developed nations such as the United States and Canada in North America. For its versatility, Human Trafficking: A Global Perspective deserves a place on anyone's bookshelf.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Brazil, and Latin America

825. Interview: President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia

Author:
Alan Philps
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Colombia has paid a heavy price in battling the cocaine trade which at one stage threatened to destroy the country. President Santos, the most outspoken of Latin American leaders on drugs policy, tells Alan Philps that now the consuming nations must share the burden.
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

826. Transparency in Military Spending and Arms Acquisitions in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Mark Bromley and Carina Solmirano
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Over the past two decades democratic processes have strengthened in Latin America and the Caribbean following decades of authoritarian rule. The region faces no major external military threat and—other than a limited number of unresolved border disputes—relations between neighbouring states are peaceful. Nonetheless, military expenditure and arms acquisitions have increased significantly in recent years. These developments have sparked fears about their potential impact on regional stability as well as the possibility of a regional arms race developing. In addition, questions have been asked as to whether the increase in spending has been made at the expense of the social needs of the citizens of Latin America and the Caribbean. In this context, governments in the region have renewed efforts to improve the levels of transparency of their military spending and arms acquisitions.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Poverty, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

827. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) Negotiations: Overview and Prospects

Author:
Deborah Elms and C. L. Lim
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement currently under negotiation between nine countries in three continents, including Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States and Vietnam. In late 2011 three additional countries--Japan, Canada and Mexico--announced their intention to join as well. The TPP has always been called a "high quality, 21st century" agreement that covers a range of topics not always found in free trade agreements. This includes not just trade in goods, services and investment, but also intellectual property rights, government procurement, labor, environment, regulations, and small and medium enterprises. This paper traces the complex negotiations and evolution of the talks since the early 2000s to the present.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Malaysia, Canada, Israel, Vietnam, Latin America, Australia, Australia/Pacific, Mexico, Singapore, Chile, Peru, New Zealand, and Brunei

828. Rethinking Latin America

Author:
Christopher Sabatini
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Running down the list of the U.S. State Department's Latin America policy objectives in El País in September 2010, the economist Moisés Naím noted that they focused almost exclusively on domestic concerns: building democratic institutions, promoting local social and economic opportunity, and so forth. These issues were not only given a higher priority in policy toward Latin America than they were for other regions, but they were also issues largely beyond Washington's ability to control. Naím was correct, but the point can be taken further. The focus on politics within Latin American states rather than on relations between them is characteristic not simply of the State Department but also of the Latin American regional studies community in the United States more generally, from where the U.S. policy and advocacy community absorbs much of its personnel and intellectual orientation. Such attitudes have harmed U.S. policy by focusing excessive attention on small countries with little geostrategic influence and fostering the facile notion that political and economic liberalization are the necessary and sufficient criteria for the advancement of all major U.S. interests. This approach has distorted Washington's calculations of regional politics and hampered its ability to counter outside influences and deal sensibly with rising regional powers. U.S. scholars and policymakers need a reminder that development does not mean the end of politics and that twenty-first-century Latin America has its own, autonomous power dynamics. A little realism would go a long way. THAT '80S SHOW When it comes to Latin America, for decades U.S. universities and regional studies centers have focused almost exclusively on matters of comparative politics and political and economic development. In the 1970s and 1980s, the last time scholars paid much attention to the region's international relations, their chief concern was the workings and implications of U.S. hegemony. The issue facing both scholars and policymakers today, however, is what happens as U.S. power declines and new forces in the region emerge, and unfortunately, when it comes to these questions, there is little intellectual capital on which to draw.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

829. Brazil as an Emerging Environmental Donor

Author:
Kathryn Hochstetler
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Brazil has always focused on development strategies, but it has recently shifted more attention, on balance, from thinking of its own development to offering assistance to other countries in their national efforts. Former President Lula da Silva has argued that Brazil's own experience with solving problems in inauspicious conditions makes it a particularly good partner for other developing countries (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada [IPEA] and Agência Brasileira de Cooperação [ABC], 2010: 7). Brazil self-consciously approaches its external development assistance from the perspective of a recipient, endorsing an egalitarian “solidarity diplomacy” that stresses holistic development in its partners. The ultimate aim is “sustainable growth,” which includes “social inclusion and respect for the environment” (IPEA and ABC, 2010: 32-33).
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Environment, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

830. Is Chinese FDI pushing Latin America into natural resources?

Author:
Miguel Pérez Ludeña
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America is a recent phenomenon. Although the China National Petroleum Corporation and other companies have been present in Peru, Ecuador and Venezuela since the early 1990s, large projects have been pursued only since 2006, following an extended period of high commodity prices. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated that there were US$ 15 billion of Chinese FDI inflows into Latin America in 2010, 90% of which were in extractive industries. This further contributed to the already high percentage of Chinese FDI flows to the region that are in natural resources. At a time of high economic growth fueled by commodity exports and strong currency appreciation (particularly in Brazil), FDI into extractive industries strengthens the region's specialization in primary products at the expense of manufacturing and other activities.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Natural Resources, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, Brazil, Latin America, and Peru

831. Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Carlos Montoro
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The financial systems in emerging market economies during the 2008–09 global financial crisis performed much better than in previous crisis episodes, albeit with significant differences across regions. For example, real credit growth in Asia and Latin America was less affected than in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper identifies the factors at both the country and the bank levels that contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in Latin America during the global financial crisis. The resilience of real credit during the crisis was highly related to policies, measures and reforms implemented in the pre-crisis period. In particular, we find that the best explanatory variables were those that gauged the economy's capacity to withstand an external financial shock. Key were balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short-term debt). The quality of pre-crisis credit growth mattered as much as its rate of expansion. Credit expansions that preserved healthy balance sheet measures (the “quality” dimension) proved to be more sustainable. Variables signalling the capacity to set countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies during the crisis were also important determinants. Moreover, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity and bank efficiency, also played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks which had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit most. The methodology used in this paper includes the construction of indicators of resilience of real credit growth to adverse external shocks in a large number of emerging markets, not just in Latin America. As additional data become available, these indicators could be part of a set of analytical tools to assess how emerging market economies are preparing themselves to cope with the adverse effects of global financial turbulence on real credit growth.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Latin America

832. Is There Such a Thing As Middle Class Values?

Author:
Florencia Torche, Luis F. Lopez-Calva, and Jamele Rigolini
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Middle class values have long been perceived as drivers of social cohesion and growth. In this paper we investigate the relation between class (measured by the position in the income distribution), values, and political orientations using comparable values surveys for six Latin American countries. We find that both a continuous measure of income and categorical measures of income-based class are robustly associated with values. Both income and class tend to display a similar association to values and political orientations as education, although differences persist in some important dimensions. Overall, we do not find strong evidence of any “middle class particularism”: values appear to gradually shift with income, and middle class values lay between the ones of poorer and richer classes. If any, the only peculiarity of middle class values is moderation. We also find changes in values across countries to be of much larger magnitude than the ones dictated by income, education and individual characteristics, suggesting that individual values vary primarily within bounds dictated by each society.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Social Stratification, and Culture
Political Geography:
Latin America

833. Transportation and Communication Infrastructure in Latin America: Lessons from Asia

Author:
Barbara Kotschwar
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In Latin America, inadequate transportation infrastructure has been identified as an increasingly important impediment to the region's further integration in global trade and a significant factor preventing countries from properly taking advantage of the multitude of regional, plurilateral, and bilateral trade agreements signed in the past decade and a half. This paper examines transport and communications infrastructure initiatives in Latin American and Asian regional trade arrangements and finds several lessons Asia can teach Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Communications, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

834. Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author:
Theodore H. Moran, Julia Muir, and Barbara Kotschwar
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
China's need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has led Chinese investors to acquire stakes in natural resource companies, extend loans to mining and petroleum investors, and write long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals in Africa, Latin America, Australia, Canada, and other resource-rich regions. These efforts to procure raw materials might be exacerbating the problems of strong demand; "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining preferential access to available output, and extending control over the world's extractive industries. But Chinese investment need not have a zero-sum effect if Chinese procurement arrangements expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Previous Peterson Institute research (see Moran 2010) and new research undertaken in this paper, show that the majority of Chinese investments and procurement arrangements serve to help diversify and make more competitive the portion of the world natural resource base located in Latin America. For a more comprehensive analysis, the authors conduct a structured comparison of four Peruvian mines with foreign ownership: two Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-based, and two Chinese. They examine what conditions or policy measures are most effective in inducing Chinese investors to adopt international industry standards and best-practices, and which are not. They distill from this case study some lessons for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere that intend to use Chinese investment to develop their extractive sectors: first, that financial markets bring accountability; second, that the host country regulatory environment makes a significant difference; and third, that foreign investment is a catalyst for change.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Latin America, and Australia

835. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of Latin America, Africa and Peripheral States

Author:
Brandon Fite
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Iran pursues cooperation with states on the geographic and strategic periphery of the competition between the US and Iran in order to create a network of diplomatic and economic relationships or “partners” that can lessen the blow of international sanctions and generally oppose Western attempts to constrict its ambitions. These peripheral “partners” located mainly in Africa and Latin America, also serve as alternative markets for Iranian oil, provide diplomatic cover for Iran's nuclear efforts, and aid Iran's acquisition of goods proscribed by international sanctions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Iran, and Latin America

836. Sustainable Development Goals – a useful outcome from Rio+20?

Author:
Alex Evans and David Steven
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
Recent months have seen increasing interest in the idea that Rio+20 could be the launch pad for a new set of 'Sustainable Development Goals' (SDGs). But what would SDGs cover, what would a process to define and then implement them look like, and what would some of the key political challenges be? This short briefing sets out a short summary of current thinking the issue, followed by thoughts about the way forward.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Latin America

837. The Road to Universal Social Protection: How Costa Rica Informs Theory Juliana

Author:
Juliana Martínez Franzoni and Diego Sánchez-Ancochea
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
How are universal social programs built in countries on the periphery, where resources are more limited and initial inequalities higher than any ever seen in OECD countries? Historically it has been very difficult, and even those countries that committed themselves to serious welfare efforts did so with stratified, rather than universal, transfers and services. Yet there have been some exceptions, and Costa Rica ranks among the most successful. The bottom-up expansion of social security, along income/class rather than occupational lines, was very important in the creation of a basic floor of benefits among the low and low-middle salaried population. Gradually, the middle and upper-middle groups were later on brought on board as well, in sharp contrast with the rest of the region where social insurance was shaped for and according to the preferences of various middle-class groups.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Poverty, Social Stratification, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Latin America

838. Has Regionalism Peaked? The Latin American Quagmire and its Lessons

Author:
Andrés Malamud and Gian Gardini
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since 1960, Latin American attempts at regionalism have undergone distinct phases. More notably, they have tended to diverge across space, gradually giving birth to separate blocs that seem to be tearing South, Central and North America apart. Additionally, within and across these regions several overlapping projects coexist. This article focuses on the dynamics of segmented and overlapping regionalism in order to describe what they look like, analyse how they articulate with one another, and explain why member states have pushed for such a messy outcome. This situation, linked to the evolution of the global context, might be indicating that regionalism in Latin America has reached its peak, beyond which it may be difficult to achieve further progress. Two conclusions are elicited: first, economic integration is becoming a geographically diffused phenomenon rather than a regional one; second, regionalism is still a compelling foreign policy but its causes, goals and outcomes are no longer what they used to be.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
Latin America and North America

839. A Changing Mediterranean: Regional Organisations and North Africa during the Arab Spring

Author:
Marco Pinfari
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since 1960, Latin American attempts at regionalism have undergone distinct phases. More notably, they have tended to diverge across space, gradually giving birth to separate blocs that seem to be tearing South, Central and North America apart. Additionally, within and across these regions several overlapping projects coexist. This article focuses on the dynamics of segmented and overlapping regionalism in order to describe what they look like, analyse how they articulate with one another, and explain why member states have pushed for such a messy outcome. This situation, linked to the evolution of the global context, might be indicating that regionalism in Latin America has reached its peak, beyond which it may be difficult to achieve further progress. Two conclusions are elicited: first, economic integration is becoming a geographically diffused phenomenon rather than a regional one; second, regionalism is still a compelling foreign policy but its causes, goals and outcomes are no longer what they used to be.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, Latin America, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

840. Conclusion - Building Regions from Below: Has the Time Come for Regionalism 2.0?

Author:
Lorenzo Fioramonti
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In a changing world ridden with crises and characterized by a general redistribution of power, regional organizations need to reinvent themselves. Equally, the study of regionalism has to reject its traditional Eurocentrism to embrace new conceptual categories in order to describe more effectively the variety of regional processes across the world. Against this background, this article looks the European project and its current crisis before discussing other regional 'experiments' in Africa, Asia and Latin America, which rest on different principles but also manifest considerable shortcomings. The analysis points to need to look at regionalism with a critical eye, emphasizing the undeniably important achievements but also the hidden threats that a certain model of regional integration (for instance, the classical top-down elite-driven process adopted by the EU founding fathers) can pose to the sustainability of regional cohesion and the adaptability of this model to other areas of the world.
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America