Political Geography: Latin America

301. Paraguay's Compliance With The Inter-American Human Rights System

Author:: Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Madeline Soiney, and Andrés Hernández
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Why do new democracies comply with international human rights obligations? We analyze Paraguay’s compliance with all reparation measures requested by the Inter-American Human Rights System over the past two decades. In contrast to most studies, which focus on reparation measures ordered by a single organ in the system, our study covers all orders resulting from friendly settlements, reports published by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and rulings by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. We provide a novel classification of human rights cases, and evaluate three competing explanations for compliance: legal factors, international pressures, and domestic political will. Our analysis of 1,426 reparation-years underscores the importance of changes in political will over time.
Topic:: Human Rights, Democracy, Rule of Law, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Latin America, Paraguay, and Global Focus

302. The Space of Utopia: Christians for Socialism in Chile

Author:: Denisa Jashari
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper examines the intellectual production of the Chilean clerical movement, Christians for Socialism (CpS). It does so by contextualizing the emergence of CpS within the Chilean Church’s own transformations in theological practices and in grassroots interactions with workers and the poor. The election of self-declared Marxist Salvador Allende in 1970 inspired a sector of the clergy to rethink both the role of the Church in society and the role of the poor in the nation. I draw on Ernst Bloch’s concept of concrete utopia to argue that in Chile Christians for Socialism not only creatively converged Marxist and religious thinking but contributed to altering conventional notions of the two. The notion of transcendence and the construction of a “New Man” appealed to the utopian aspects of both religious and Marxist thinking. Moreover, the Chilean CpS had a Latin American impact, as evidenced by the First Latin American Encounter of Christians for Socialism in Santiago, Chile, in 1972, and a world impact, seen in the formation of the Ecumenical Association of Third-World Theologians in 1976. While the legacy of CpS and liberation theology in Chile is far more visible in the grassroots work undertaken during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, an examination of this movement’s theological and ideological productions before the coup is critical to comprehending members’ subsequent material, on-the-ground actions.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Religion, Social Movement, Violence, and Catholic Church
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Chile

303. Addressing instability in Central America: Restrictions on civil liberties, violence, and climate change

Author:: Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, María Eugenia Brizuela de Ávila, and Domingo Sadurní
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Citizens across Latin America and the Caribbean are rising up in protest. Political frustration and economic stagnation are fueling social discontent exacerbated by the continued COVID-19 pandemic and the slow health response. In Central America, restrictions on civil liberties, high rates of gender-based violence and extortion, and worsening climate change are compounding the lack of economic opportunities and pervasive corruption seen in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. In the year of its bicentennial, can northern Central America chart a new path, in partnership with the United States, to tackle the sources of social instability that are forcing migrants to seek a better life? In July 2021, the Joseph Biden administration released the US Strategy for Addressing the Root Causes of Migration in Central America report. Three of its five pillars call for the United States and northern Central American countries to work together to respect human rights and a free press, counter violence at the hands of criminal organizations, and combat sexual and gender-based violence.1 To ensure a sustained and effective implementation of this strategy, especially on these three pillars, the United States will need to find new ways to work closely with northern Central American governments, domestic and international private sectors, and organized civil-society groups. Following consultations with the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center’s Northern Triangle Advisory Group (NTAG), this brief highlights the importance of implementing a holistic, multisector approach to mitigate gender-based violence, protect civil liberties and human rights, and build climate resilience. This brief is the third in a three-part series by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and DT Institute that provides policy recommendations for the United States and its northern Central American partners to address the root causes of migration.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Politics, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Latin America

304. Generational Dynamics of Economic Crisis and Recovery: Prospects for Younger and Older Persons

Author:: Nicole Goldin
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Economic shocks affect young and older age groups disproportionately and highlight the insecurity of the youth labor market and volatility of older people’s savings. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated youth labor market challenges and caused young people to either lose jobs or work fewer hours. It also undermined the financial security of older people who tend to own small businesses given that half of the small businesses either closed down or lost significant revenue during lockdowns. Furthermore, COVID-19 exacerbated the digital divide between generations. While younger people are more likely to be technologically savvy, older generations often lack digital literacy to adapt to online work or virtual communications platforms. Dr. Goldin argues that to alleviate the disproportionate suffering experienced by young and elderly age groups during the pandemic, policymakers should increase targeting of social-protection measures, facilitate private-sector investment in education and training, invest in improving digital services and infrastructure, ensure access to financial services, and collect age-disaggregated data on economic and COVID-related indicators.
Topic:: Women, Internet, Economic Growth, Youth, Resilience, COVID-19, Digital Policy, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, Middle East, East Asia, and Latin America

305. Both hard and soft corporate practices construct and secure industrial mining operations: The case of Colombia

Author:: Line Jespersgaard Jakobsen
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This DIIS Working Paper elaborates how local consent to a huge industrial mining complex, including a port and a 150 km railway built in the 1980’s on indigenous arid lands, were created. Showing how both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ security technologies were effective in preparing the complex, constructing the necessary infrastructure and securing the operation, the paper at the same time illustrates how corporate security practices have changed over time in the northern part of Colombia. The paper is based on extended ethnographic fieldwork in La Guajira, Colombia, carried out through 2018 and 2019 as well as historical written documents.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Gas, Capitalism, Inequality, Economy, Conflict, Ethnography, Violence, Investment, Justice, Land Rights, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

306. Starr Forum: The Haitian Constitutional Crisis and the International Community

Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: What role has the international community played in Haiti’s struggle to achieve a stable constitutional and democratic order since the end of the Duvalier era in 1986 and the promulgation of the 1987 Constitution? In this Starr Forum, four leading experts on Haitian domestic and international politics discuss Haiti’s extended constitutional crisis and consider what steps (if any) the international community can take at the current time to help restore to Haitians a government that serves the needs of the vast majority.
Topic:: Governance, Constitution, State Formation, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, Haiti, and North America

307. Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America

Author:: Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The uneven access to COVID-19 vaccines in Latin American countries has resulted in a widely varied pace of immunisation. The region has relied mainly on direct purchases from China and Russia, among others, the global COVAX initiative, and donations from the U.S. and other countries. Russia, China, and the U.S. in particular are using this “vaccine diplomacy” to boost their own political and economic influence in Latin America. The EU has been trying to position itself against that rivalry, for example, through significant funding for vaccine access and distribution initiatives. These efforts require, however, more efficient promotion of the Union’s engagement.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Latin America, and United States of America

308. The Course of the Energy Transition in Latin America

Author:: Bartlomiej Znojek and Zuzanna Nowak
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The energy transition in Latin American countries is increasingly important for their economic development and the fight against climate change. These states want to use their potential of renewable energy sources (RES) and raw materials such as lithium deposits to attract investments and increase their participation in global supply chains building the low-carbon economy. The EU and its Member States—Germany in particular—have been more and more involved in cooperation with the region in these areas. Poland can also benefit, for example, through the exchange of experience and the engagement of Polish companies.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Renewable Energy, Economic Development, Supply Chains, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Latin America

309. Reforming Patent Law: The Case of Covid‐19

Author:: Michele Boldrin and David Levine
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Ashort time ago the debate over the proposal to temporarily waive intellectual property rights on Covid‐19 vaccines was raging worldwide; and the suspension of those rights seemed imminent. Public attention reached its peak in May 2021 when the Biden administration endorsed the idea and committed itself to pursuing it under the World Trade Organization–World Intellectual Property Organization (WTO-WIPO) procedural rules for waiving intellectual property (IP) protection. By suspending IP rights, the administration sought to help low‐income countries to start producing vaccines more quickly, reducing the rising and dramatic worldwide vaccine inequality.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, Inequality, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Patents
Political Geography:: Africa, India, and Latin America

310. The Risk of Automation in Latin America

Author:: Irene Brambilla, Andrés César, Guillermo Falcone, Leonardo Gasparini, and Carlo Lombardo
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: In this paper we characterize workers’ vulnerability to automation in the near future in the six largest Latin American economies as a function of the exposure to routinization of the tasks that they perform and the potential automation of their occupation. We combine (i) indicators of potential automatability by occupation and (ii) worker’s information on occupation and other labor variables. We find that the ongoing process of automation is likely to significantly affect the structure of employment. In particular, unskilled and semi-skilled workers are likely to bear a disproportionate share of the adjustment costs. Automation will probably be a more dangerous threat for equality than for overall employment.
Topic:: Employment, Income Inequality, Economy, and Automation
Political Geography:: Latin America

311. Poverty in Latin America

Author:: Leonardo Gasparini, María Emma Santos, and Leopoldo Tornarolli
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Despite some progress in recent decades, poverty remains a top social concern in Latin America. A large proportion of Latin Americans live with very low incomes and are deprived in other fundamental welfare dimensions such as education, health, housing and sanitation. The measurement of income and multidimensional poverty in the region has advanced significantly in recent decades. In particular, there has been a remarkable increase in the availability of microdata from national household surveys and of poverty statistics published by governments and other institutions. Yet, the measurement of poverty in Latin America still has some limitations that should be addressed in the years to come. This chapter discusses the measurement of monetary and multidimensional poverty in Latin America, and documents the main patterns and trends. By providing an updated assessment of the level, changes and characteristics of poverty in the region we expect to contribute to the more ambitious debate on its determinants and policy implications. The rest of the chapter is organized as follows. In Section 2 we describe the data sources and main methodological issues regarding the measurement of income poverty, while in Section 3 we document the main patterns and trends over the recent decades. We repeat the sequence for the measurement of multidimensional poverty: Section 4 for methodological issues and Section 5 for evidence. The paper concludes in Section 6 with some brief concluding remarks.
Topic:: Poverty, Income Inequality, Economy, and Sanitation
Political Geography:: Latin America

312. Social Mobility and Economic Development: Evidence from a Panel of Latin American Regions

Author:: Guido Neidhofer, Matias Ciaschi, Leonardo Gasparini, and Joaquín Serrano
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We explore the role of social mobility as a driver of economic development by constructing a panel data set that includes measures of intergenerational mobility of education at the sub-national level in Latin America. First, we map the geography of educational mobility for 52 Latin American regions, as well as its evolution over time. Then, through a novel weighting procedure that considers the participation of cohorts to the economy in each year, we estimate the effect of changes in mobility on economic indicators, such as income per capita, poverty, child mortality, and luminosity. Hereby, we control for several covariates, including migration, educational expansions, initial conditions, and unobserved cross-regional heterogeneity. Our findings show that increasing social mobility had a significant and robust impact on the development of Latin American regions.
Topic:: Development, Economic Growth, Economic Mobility, Equality, and Equality of Opportunity
Political Geography:: Latin America

313. Reasons for Russia’s War on Ukraine and its foreseeable consequences on Latin America

Author:: Nancy Janett García Vázquez
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the historical and political reasons that, in the author's opinion, have led to the war unleashed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. It is also its purpose to analyze the war' imediate and mediate impacts at the international level, as well as its eventual consequences in the Latin American region.
Topic:: Security, Politics, War, History, Economy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Caribbean

314. New Avenues for Colombia’s Internationalization: Trade in Tasks

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann and Sebastian Bustos
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: One of the consequences of COVID-19 is the recognition that many tasks can be done from home. But anything that can done remotely, can be done from abroad. Given large salary differences between white collar workers across countries, it would make sense for value chains to try to exploit them. This opens an opportunity for Colombia to further promote its integration into the world global value chains and access new markets. This paper explores the possibility of exporting teleworkable services from Colombia. The goal is to provide useful information to guide strategic interventions to speed-up the development of such service industries in Colombia. We first introduce a definition of teleworkable jobs and describe its occupations and industries along different dimensions. We show that there are many teleworkable jobs in the US, representing a significant share of industry costs. Then, we show that many industries intensive in teleworkable jobs are currently traded across borders. To quantify Colombia’s advantage providing teleworkable services, we study the cost structure of industries and quantify the potential savings in overall costs if the tasks were performed by Colombians. Given Colombia’s current presence and the density around teleworkable industries we can calculate a proxy of the latent advantage in teleworkable services. We propose an index that summarize these dimensions and rank the potential gains from including telework from Colombia in an industry. We end with a set of policy recommendations to move this agenda forward.
Topic:: Human Capital, COVID-19, Labor Market, Skills, and Telework
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

315. How concerning is Bolsonaro’s recent political and military shakeup?

Author:: Ryan C. Berg
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: urbulent politics and a deep shakeup in Brasilia have many concerned for the stability of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. The stampede of ministerial exits started early this week with the resignation of foreign minister Ernesto Araújo. The defense minister followed suit shortly thereafter. By day’s end, six ministers had either resigned or moved to new posts — about one-third of Bolsonaro’s cabinet. Perhaps more concerning than the political overhaul was what transpired one day after the ministerial shakeup: the leadership restructuring within Brazil’s armed forces — occurring, no less, one day before the 57th anniversary of the military coup. The heads of all three major branches — the army, the navy, and the air force — resigned en masse, purportedly over concerns for their independence, handing Bolsonaro the opportunity to handpick their successors. Brazil witnessed something analogous only once before — in 1977, under the turbulent rule of military dictator Ernesto Geisel. This has left some Brazil watchers fretting that an insecure Bolsonaro could be laying the foundations “for his own January 6.”
Topic:: Politics, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Populism, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

316. Europe’s last chance: How the EU can (and should) become the indispensable actor in Venezuela’s democratic restoration

Author:: Ryan C. Berg and Jorge González-Gallarza
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: The EU’s current policy approach toward Venezuela is insufficient to contribute meaningfully to a political transition in the country and protect human rights. Oftentimes, the EU’s policy has been at odds with the US, having permitted unrelated disagreements to cloud its recognition of its strategic interest in a free, prosperous, and democratic Venezuela. The Nicolas Maduro regime’s illicit investment schemes have found fertile ground in the EU at large, with a particular hotspot in Spain. A torrent of investments and acquisitions has allowed corrupt cronies in Maduro’s entourage to engage in unfathomable kleptocracy and stash their ill-gotten gains in the eurozone, vitiating the rule of law in the process. The EU consistently underappreciates the Maduro regime’s multi-faceted security threat, which intersects with and compounds many of the EU’s greatest geostrategic challenges in the post-COVID-19 landscape. China, Cuba, Iran, and Russia are all at once strategic rivals of the EU and enablers of the Maduro regime’s threat to its security. The Joe Biden administration’s commitment to multilateral engagement in Venezuela offers the EU a chance to reclaim transatlantic cooperation and present a common vision for political transition in the country. Beefing up sanctions and developing a coordination mechanism, as well as drumming up humanitarian aid, would constitute serious progress and potentially thrust the EU into the role of indispensable actor in Venezuela’s democratic restoration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Sanctions, European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, Spain, and Venezuela

317. Financialization, Deindustrialization, and Instability in Latin America

Author:: Esteban Perez-Caldentey and Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The paper analyzes the relation between premature deindustrialization in Latin America with what is termed premature financialization. Premature financialization is defined as a turn to finance, organized as an industrial concern, which is a vehicle for accumulation before the process of industrialization has reached maturity. This contrasts with developed countries where financialization occurs after an advanced stage of economic and social development is reached, and where the growth of the financial sector, beyond a certain threshold, can be detrimental to economic activity. The paper examines the consequences of premature financialization for investment, growth, and financial stability.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Investment, Financial Stability, Financialisation, Deindustrialization, and Instability
Political Geography:: Latin America

318. Quantifying Investment Facilitation at Country Level: Introducing a New Index

Author:: Axel Berger, Ali Dadkhah, and Zoryana Olekseyuk
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: This article introduces a new and unique dataset for measuring the adoption of investment facilitation measures at country level. The Investment Facilitation Index (IFI) covers 117 individual investment facilitation measures, clustered in six policy areas, and maps their adoption for 86 countries. This article presents the conceptual and methodological background of the IFI and provides a first analysis of the level of adoption of investment facilitation measures across countries participating in the investment facilitation for development negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Our dataset reveals novel insights. Countries which have lower levels of adoption belong to the low-income and lower-middle-income country group and are often located in Africa, the Middle East and to some extent Latin America and the Caribbean. The strong correlation between FDI and the IFI score shows that countries with the lowest levels of FDI, and thus in need of policy tools to attract FDI, have the lowest levels of adoption when it comes to investment facilitation measures. Our dataset has direct relevance for current policy discussions on investment facilitation for development in the WTO but also for domestic-level policy-making. Furthermore, the IFI provides the basis for a future research agenda to assess the design and impact of a future WTO agreement.
Topic:: Development, Investment, and WTO
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and Caribbean

319. Building an Energy and Climate Coalition with Latin America and the Caribbean: An Agenda for the Biden Administration

Author:: Mauricio Cardenas and Laurie Fitzmaurice
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The initial months of the Biden administration’s foreign policy have underscored the importance of defining the type of relations with China (cooperative in some areas, adversarial in others) and revamping relations with Europe on areas of common interest. However, the United States should look closer to home, where it can find some major opportunities for international policy advancement. The Biden administration has a window of opportunity to rethink its relations with and policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In particular, there are very good reasons—political and economic—for putting the energy and climate change agenda at the center of the hemispheric partnership. On the political front, building a hemispheric bloc will increase the influence of its members in global negotiations. On the economic front, the countries in the region offer significant opportunities for trade and investment for the United States. Canada, which earlier in the year pledged to work with the United States on addressing climate change,[1] could also have an interest in promoting and potentially participating in this initiative. Prior to the arrival of the pandemic, the economies of LAC had already been confronting a complex series of economic growth challenges after the end of the commodities supercycle. Many countries in the region faced high levels of public indebtedness, currency depreciation, credit rating risk, insufficient tax revenue bases, and low investment rates.[2] The appearance of the COVID-19 crisis only served to exacerbate these conditions. The LAC region contains 8.4 percent of the world’s population but represents 30 percent of COVID-19 fatalities to date.[3] Forecasts now predict that per capita GDP will remain below the 2019 level at least until 2023.[4] The continuing surge of undocumented immigration into the southern border of the United States, the social and economic impacts of COVID-19, and the growing influence of China in the region could increase political pressure on the United States to develop a coherent policy toward LAC. These urgent and competing dynamics represent an opportunity for the United States to recast its policy toward the region as one of engagement. The United States could utilize the tools of technology and financing focused on energy and climate to put the region on a path toward sustained economic growth and social progress. LAC needs technology and financing to build clean infrastructure, develop alternative energies, and reduce energy poverty.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

320. National Oil Companies and the Energy Transition: Ecopetrol's Acquisition of an Electric Transmission Company

Author:: Mauricio Cardenas and Luisa Palacios
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The energy transition strategies of international oil companies have come under increased scrutiny from investors and the media as countries across the globe grapple with targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.[1] It is unclear if national oil companies (NOCs) are going to feel the same pressure given their government-majority ownership and, if so, how they will adjust their business models. This commentary explores recent moves by Colombian national oil company Ecopetrol to adapt to the energy transition, especially its bid to acquire a majority stake in Interconexión Eléctrica SA (ISA), an electricity transmission company, for 14.2 trillion Colombian pesos (equal to about $3.6 billion).[2] The proposed acquisition was met with mixed reactions, with some critics suggesting it was an opportunistic move on the part of the Colombian government (which has a majority interest in both companies) to book some revenues and reduce the ballooning fiscal deficit. But rather than analyzing its fiscal merits, this piece analyzes the potential transaction from the viewpoint of Ecopetrol and whether there are lessons from the deal for other NOCs navigating the energy transition. This commentary begins with a brief background on both companies and the potential benefits for Ecopetrol in pursuing a path that is different relative to what some other oil companies are doing in order to adjust their business models. Ecopetrol faces specific as well as regional challenges that make transition strategies used by the European oil companies less attractive. The piece then discusses how, if part of the goal of the acquisition is to accelerate Ecopetrol’s energy transition and to add shareholder value, a number of complementary actions should be taken to help with the governance aspect of this acquisition while at the same time strengthening Ecopetrol’s pledge to become net zero by 2050. For example, in arranging financing, Ecopetrol could explore issuing an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) bond where the proceeds are earmarked for the purchase of ISA, which is already a net-zero company. In addition, the coupon rate could be linked to specific emissions reductions on Ecopetrol’s oil and gas activities. Tying these targets to the coupon rate could be seen as a credible mechanism to ensure that the company will comply with its ambitious climate goals. In addition, we propose that Ecopetrol maintain ISA’s current governance structure unmodified and preserve its operational independence. This would allow ISA to benefit from its investment grade status (which Ecopetrol does not enjoy) and continue to deploy its capital expenditures (CapEx) plan geared toward investing in Latin America’s electricity sector without interference. To conclude, this transaction by itself does not guarantee a successful energy transition for Ecopetrol’s core business. If Ecopetrol’s goal is to diversify its portfolio of activities and reduce its carbon footprint, then it should ensure the sum of the two companies results in synergies that reduce emissions beyond what each one of them can achieve individually. This is not a guaranteed outcome but one that will depend on how ISA performs under Ecopetrol’s ownership, the extent to which this transaction brings new opportunities in the renewable energy space, and how the revenues derived from this acquisition help to finance the decarbonization of Ecopetrol.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

321. Entrenching the Problem? International Organizations and Their Engagement in Latin America to Address Violence: The Case of the European Union in the Northern Triangle

Author:: Kai Lehmann
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Latin America is the most violent region in the world. Yet, decades of political and financial investment by the international community have not had the desired results. Using the work of the European Union in the Northern Triangle of Central America as a case study, this article asks what explains this failure. Utilizing the conceptual framework of Complexity and Human System Dynamics, it argues that current policies actually entrench the pattern of conditions which lead to, and sustain, violence. It shows how, by reconceptualizing this problem using the concepts of Complexity, policies could be made more effective and sustainable.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Europe, South America, Latin America, and North America

322. New Clothes, Old Threads: The Dangerous Right-Wing Offensive in Latin America

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In Latin America, the adoption of the neo-reactionary and alternative right projects of the Global North appears to be a launching pad from which to modify the cognitive maps of the people and to shift political and discursive positions and public agendas to the right. This dossier analyses the right-wing developments in Latin America, identifying how they operate and with what discourses, what social base they mobilise, and their continuities of and ruptures with the history of the right wing in the continent.
Topic:: Politics, Far Right, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

323. Pity the Nation: Honduras Is Being Eaten from within and without

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Where does Honduras stand twelve years after the 2009 coup? In our dossier, jointly produced with People’s Dispatch and the Civic Council of Popular and Indigenous Organisations of Honduras (COPINH), we look at the coup against progressive leader and President Manuel Zelaya and the prolonged violence in the country in the years since by examining the assassination of Berta Cáceres, the forced disappearances of five members of the Garifuna community in July 2020, and the concerted attacks on trade unionism to understand the far-reaching impacts of the coup.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Coup, and Assassination
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, North America, and Honduras

324. Dawn: Marxism and National Liberation

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Dossier no. 37 is an invitation to a dialogue, a conversation about the entangled tradition of Marxism and national liberation – a tradition that emerges out of the October Revolution and that deepens its roots in the anti-colonial conflicts of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This is an introduction to a wide-ranging conversation that includes many different revolutionary movements, mostly rooted in the continents of Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Topic:: Socialism/Marxism, Colonialism, Revolution, Liberalization, and Anti-Colonialism
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

325. Linkages between Inequality, Exclusion, and the Occurrence of Elections with Protest Activity Against Governments

Author:: Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: There is ample research on the correlation between inequality and exclusion on one side and conflict on the other. For instance, the connection between inequities and violence is one of the underpinnings of the concept of fragile situations, utilized frequently by the World Bank and showcased in publications such as the World Development Report 2011 or Pathways for Peace 2018. It is therefore tempting to draw a logical conclusion that escalating inequality and exclusion can be influenced by both violent conflicts and events such as civilian disorder and political volatility. It also makes sense at an intuitive level as humans are wired to spot unfairness when it affects them, which fits into this hypothesis. The linkage has been in fact proposed since at least the antiquity. For example, in 4th century BCE, Aristotle warned that accumulation of wealth among few Athenians could lead to toppling of the city government. In more modern times, communist revolutionaries were predicting a worldwide violent uprising by the impoverished, agitated by economic injustice. A recent New Yorker article draws the arc between inequities and protests in Latin American countries.
Topic:: Government, Inequality, Violence, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Latin America

326. Missing Calvo? Latin America’s love-hate relationship with the Investment Treaty Regime

Author:: Lucas Silva Amorim, Mariana Pimenta Oliveira Baccarini, and Henrique Zeferino de Menezes
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:: For decades, following the views of the Argentine legal scholar Carlos Calvo, Latin American countries avoided adopting international investment treaties. The Calvo doctrine established that disputes between foreign investors and the state should only be settled by national courts, to the exclusion of international jurisdictions. This position eroded as numerous bilateral investment treaties (BITs) were signed during the 1980s and 1990s, exposing the countries of the region to investment lawsuits. Recently, a crisis of the investment treaty regime has been noticed in the region, with the denunciation of both BITs and the ICSID Convention, the non-recognition of arbitral awards, and the negotiation of a new model of investment treaties. The analysis of the historical process of rise and crisis of the investment regime in the region, through the review of documents and data on its effects, demonstrate that countries have taken measures to restrict the possibility of investor-State arbitration. In this sense, the region seems to be experiencing a return to Calvo's doctrine on the need to guarantee countries’ decision-making autonomy in strategic policies.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Autonomy, Decision-Making, International Investment Agreements, and Policy Diffusion
Political Geography:: Latin America

327. La transición hacia energía renovables en México: Oportunidades y desafíos respecto a las empresas y derechos humanos

Author:: Jacob Ramirez
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Los gobiernos y las empresas argumentan que invertir en energía eólica contribuye al desarrollo sostenible global y la conservación ecológica. Sin embargo, las consecuencias sobre las tradiciones socioculturales y económicas de los pueblos indígenas desafían estos argumentos. Las confrontaciones entre las empresas y los pueblos indígenas sobre la energía renovable se remontan a la continuidad de la opresión y la represión de los gobiernos y las empresas hacia los pueblos indígenas, lo cual se denomina colonialismo interno. Basado en un estudio longitudinal en el Istmo de Tehuantepec en Oaxaca, México, este artículo ofrece una forma diferente para discutir derechos humanos y empresas en inversiones eólicas en dicho país. Asimismo, a través de los conceptos de colonialismo interno y justicia ambiental, analiza los Principios Rectores sobre las Empresas y los Derechos Humanos de las Naciones Unidas. El colonialismo interno expone la profundidad de las dinámicas conflictivas en las inversiones eólicas, en los territorios de los pueblos indígenas con respecto a la injusticia ambiental en sus derechos humanos.
Topic:: Human Rights, Business, Renewable Energy, Indigenous, and Wind Power
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

328. No Land in Paraguay

Author:: William Costa
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The preservation of indigenous peoples’ territories in Paraguay has a vital role in maintaining spiritual, cultural, and communal wellbeing. Despite this important reality, many indigenous communities’ bonds with their land have been shattered.
Topic:: Democracy, Landpower, Land Rights, Indigenous, and Land
Political Geography:: Latin America and Paraguay

329. Truth and justice initiatives in non-transitional contexts: experiences from Latin America

Author:: Victória Monteiro da Silva Santos
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:: By tracing concepts such as truth, justice, reparations, and nonrepeats, as well as models such as the International Commission against Impunity, the Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts, and the Truth Commission, the article discusses some of the ways in which a diversity actors sought to address and transform the complex patterns of organized violence that routinely impact various Latin American societies.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Transitional Justice, Justice, Reconciliation, Truth, and Reparations
Political Geography:: Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico

330. The Role of the Army in Politics in Latin America and Turkey during the Cold War | Soğuk Savaş Döneminde Latin Amerika ve Türkiye’de Ordunun Siyasetteki Rolü

Author:: Tuğba Ergezen and Ceren Uysal Oğuz
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: The armies as one of the proponents of the constant progress and transformation of humanity, continue to exist in parallel to the concept of security of which the meaning, the scope and the parameters evolve continuously. From conquests to independence wars and the protection of the states' territorial integrity, the armies have been functioning as guardians against external threats and internal ones stemming from political crises, social unrest, and economic instabilities. Moreover, during the Cold War, the United States used the armies of less developed and developing countries to overthrow elected leaders to establish anti-communist governments that would work in accordance with the US. This article aims to discuss the common and similar points between Turkey and Latin American countries that have experienced coups and military interventions during the Cold War period. In this respect, the similar political, economic and military reasons that led to the armies’ involvement in politics through coups and interventions are argued even though these countries have historical, cultural, administrative and social differences. | İnsanlığın gelişim ve değişim sürecinin bileşenlerinden biri olan ordular, anlam, kapsam ve parametreleri sürekli dönüşen güvenlik kavramına paralel olarak varlıklarını sürdürmektedir. Fetihlerden bağımsızlık mücadelelerine ve ülke topraklarını korumaya kadar farklı görevler üstlenen orduların, dışarıdan gelen tehditlerin yanı sıra, çeşitli siyasi krizler, toplumsal hareketler ve ekonomik istikrarsızlıklar gibi “iç tehditlere” karşı bir mekanizma olarak da kullanılması söz konusu olmuştur. Öte yandan özellikle Soğuk Savaş döneminde az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde orduların, seçilmiş yönetimleri devirerek ABD’nin istediği anti-komünist yönetimlerin işbaşına gelmesini sağlamakta kullanılması da oldukça sık görülen bir olgu haline gelmiştir. Kendilerine özgü tarihsel, kültürel, idari ve toplumsal birtakım farklılıklara sahip olmakla birlikte, Soğuk Savaş döneminde ABD’nin de etkisiyle benzer ekonomik, siyasi ve askeri süreçlerden geçen Latin Amerika ülkeleri ve Türkiye arasında orduların siyasetteki rolü, darbelerin arkasında yatan temel faktörler gibi ortak bazı unsurlar bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Soğuk Savaş döneminde çok sayıda askeri müdahalenin yaşandığı Latin Amerika ülkeleri ve Türkiye’nin coğrafi uzaklıklarına karşın ortak deneyimlerine yön veren benzer faktörlerin tartışılmasıdır.
Topic:: Cold War, History, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Army
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Latin America, and United States of America

331. UNRAVELING PRESIDENTIALISM: LEARNING FROM THE LATIN AMERICAN EXPERIENCE

Author:: Ebru īlter Akarçay
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: Early studies on presidentialism associated the design with political instability and weak democratic credentials, with deeply divided societies being particularly advised not to craft presidential regimes. Practices of presidentialism around the world later reframed the debate, as the focus shifted to variants of presidentialism. Presidentialism, in all its shades and colors, negates a monolithic set of political outcomes as evidenced by the constant experimentation in Latin America. This study scrutinizes how some reforms in Latin America served to pluralize presidentialism whereas other steps reinforced the opposite results. Lessons can be drawn from the two steps forward and one step back advance of presidentialism in the region. While the changing role of vice presidency, the impact of electoral system reform, and allowing for presidential exit through the intervention of the electorate diffuse power, the growing legislative powers of presidents and flexibilization of term limits dent pluralization.
Topic:: Reform, Democracy, Political structure, and Political stability
Political Geography:: United States and Latin America

332. The Gender of Work

Author:: Gala Díaz Langou, Gimena de León, José Florito, Florencia Caro Sachetti, Alejandro Biondi, and Matilde Karczmarczyk
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:: The Gender of Work is the result of a joint initiative between CIPPEC, the International Labor Organization, UN Women and the United Nations Development Program. It focuses on diagnosing the gender gaps that violate the economic rights of women in Argentina, and to present policy suggestions for removing the obstacles that make it impossible for women’s trajectories in the labor market to be substantively equal to those of men. In the Latin American context specifically (but not exclusively), there are three key issues that public policies should take into account when attempting to close the gender gaps in the exercise of economic autonomy. These can be summarized as (1) a human-rights perspective on substantive gender equality, that connects it with sustainable development priorities as described in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and approved by the United Nations in 2015; (2) the acknowledgement of intersectionality and interculturality when tackling discriminative societal structures and (3) the principle of integrality as fundamental to the achievement of physical, decision-making, and economic autonomy.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

333. Confettis d’empire ou points d’appui? L’avenir de la stratégie française de présence et de souveraineté

Author:: Élie Tenenbaum, Morgan Paglia, and Nathalie Ruffié
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: France is one of the few nations in the world to benefit from a permanent global military presence. With more than 10,000 military personnel from all three services, deployed across the five continents and the three main oceanic basins, it benefits from the second largest network of prepositioned forces in the world. This global military posture is structured around five “presence forces”, based in Senegal, Ivory Coast, Gabon, Djibouti and the United Arab Emirates, as well as five “sovereignty forces” in the dependent overseas territories of the Antilles, French Guyana, Southern Indian Ocean, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Over the past twenty years, this unique force posture has been hit by a series of deep budgetary cuts, translating into staff reductions and persisting delays in equipment delivery. As a result, the current military presence is under serious strain, as some capability are now weighing on the ability of these prepositioned forces to contribute as much as they could to the five strategic functions reiterated in the 2017 Strategic Review. These considerations are all the more important given the coming demographic, climatic, economic, geopolitical, and of course military challenges that will dramatically constrain the operational environment of the French forces in the coming years.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, France, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific

334. Panel on Presidential Candidates on Latin America

Author:: Max Paul Friedman
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:: Columbia University ILAS panel on Democratic presidential candidates and Latin America. Among leading Democratic candidates some basics are widely shared. They agree that military force should be a last resort and that long-term occupations are damaging. They promise to reinvest in diplomacy and rehabilitate the US image abroad, as well as trying to achieve US policy goals, by rebuilding alliances and recommitting to multilateralism on climate change, on nuclear arms control. They want to use foreign aid and international institutions to improve human security, address the root causes of migration, and seek diplomatic solutions to conflicts. There is a rough division between the mainstream, Obama-style approach represented by Joe Biden and the mayor from South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttegieg, who both believe that US alliances and international institutions are force multipliers for the United States. Together, the so-called moderate candidates have about 40% of the Democratic voter support in surveys. The progressive wing is represented by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who want to reduce US military activity abroad and also reform the global economic order in order to reduce inequality, conflict, and environmental damage. Together, Sanders and Warren have about 40% of the Democratic vote as well.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

335. Brazil's Vulnerable Left Behind in the Pandemic

Author:: Nicole Froio
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: As numbers of COVID-19 cases in Brazil steadily rise into the thousands, favela community leaders in vulnerable communities have raised concerns about the difficulties of complying with preventative measures in Rio de Janeiro’s favelas because of the lack of consistent water services. President Jair Bolsonaro’s anti-science response to the global pandemic, which has included calling the virus a “little flu” and urging businesses to re-open despite World Health Organization advice, has worsened the situation for vulnerable communities in Brazil.
Topic:: Health, Inequality, Public Health, and Pandemic
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

336. A Peoples' Policy for the Americas

Author:: Daniel Bessner and Vanessa Freije
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Read the Editor's Intro to our latest print issue of the NACLA Report, A Peoples’ Policy for the Americas, focused on imagining what a progressive, democratized U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America could look like.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Imperialism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Latin America

337. Chile's Struggle to Democratize the State

Author:: J. Patrice McSherry
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Will the people of Chile be able to shape their own destiny via a plebiscite? Two months before the scheduled vote, the answer remains uncertain.
Topic:: Democratization, Democracy, State Formation, State Actors, Voting, and Nation-State
Political Geography:: Latin America and Chile

338. Argentina: A Tentative Case for Democratic Populism

Author:: Ernesto Semán
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A look back at the factors that led to Peronism—and populism's—resurgence in Argentina.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, and Protests
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

339. The Inversion of Human Rights in Brazil

Author:: Jacob Blanc
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: A dictatorship-era torturer is suing one of his victims in Brazil in a stark reminder of how Bolsonaro emboldens rights abusers.
Topic:: Human Rights, Torture, Authoritarianism, State Violence, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

340. Coronavirus, Mining and Latin America: A Baseless “Race to the Bottom”

Author:: Carlos Monge
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Mining companies are asking governments to make consultation and environmental procedures more flexible to mitigate production risks and attract new investments. However, there is no real reason to slacken regulations in order to promote mining in Latin America. Conversely, the region should strengthen these standards to prepare for a possible new mining cycle fueled by the transition to clean energy. In the event of a new mining cycle, governments should safeguard against overreliance on commodity exports and the use of fossil fuels. Instead, governments and companies should explore ways in which the mining sector can contribute to economic diversifications and energy transitions. Demand and prices for minerals produced in the region have fallen as a result of the global recession. Logistical issues resultant from pandemic-related lockdowns have slowed internal production. Consequently, mining taxes and royalties will likely fall this year. Prices have not fallen enough to threaten the commercial feasibility of current projects, the global investment budget remains robust, and the region is attractive to mining investors. Furthermore, the global transition to clean and sustainable energies will most probably increase the demand and prices for the critical minerals (copper, silver, lithium and others) produced in the region.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Commodities, Mining, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America

341. Fighting Against Imperialism: The Latin American Approach to International Sanctions

Author:: Jose Ignacio Hernandez
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The Latin American experience with international sanctions has been mostly as sanctioned states rather than targeting states. This is not merely because Latin American countries have lacked the interest in using sanctions tools but also because of more complex factors, including the historical evolution of Latin American nationhood, a set of cultural values rooted in the defense of national sovereignty, and opposition to any foreign intervention. Although those values were embraced as a result of defending the independence of Latin American nations against European dominance, the values were also applied in intraregional relations in Latin America. As a result, there is not a strong culture of international sanctions imposed by Latin American countries. With few exceptions—such as Cuba—Latin American countries tend to rely on diplomatic negotiations conducted under the nonintervention principle. The unparalleled crisis in Venezuela has produced a change in perspective. While the main actions adopted regarding this crisis were undertaken to facilitate diplomatic negotiations with the Venezuelan government, Latin America—particularly within the framework of the Organization of American States (OAS)—has started to implement international sanctions as a tool to promote a transition in Venezuelan governance. This shift has not been without controversy in Latin America. Consequently, the principle of nonintervention as relates to the use of sanctions is under stress in Latin America and merits re-examination. This paper, part of the International Security Initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy, reviews the history of international sanctions in Latin America in the context of broader diplomatic developments.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Imperialism, Sanctions, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

342. Planning a Sustainable Post-Pandemic Recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Mauricio Cardenas and Juan Jose Guzman Ayala
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: In 2020, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) will experience the most severe economic recession in decades. This paper looks at the challenges confronted by LAC and proposes a series of actions to structure a recovery plan that minimizes potential moral hazard effects while aligning fiscal, social, and environmental sustainability priorities.[1] High pre-pandemic sovereign debt levels, worsening credit ratings, and low tax revenues limit the much-needed fiscal space to overcome the present health and economic crises. Most countries in the region are at risk of losing two decades of progress in the fight against poverty and inequality, while their upper-middle income status makes them ineligible for debt relief and aid packages from advanced economies. The focus on solving the current crisis may also delay much-needed progress on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, as well as overall improvements in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). We propose a combination of fiscal policy responses combined with new sources of financing to unlock a sharp recovery with minimal harm to fiscal sustainability in the long run. Through expanded public-private partnerships and blended finance structures, governments should be able to leverage private financing in large job-creation undertakings. Additionally, the issuance of SDG-linked sovereign debt and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with SDG conditionality could also provide much-needed liquidity at low cost.
Topic:: Environment, International Cooperation, Global Recession, Sustainable Development Goals, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and North America

343. Latin America Is Avoiding the Obvious Need for Reform. Why?

Author:: Mauricio Cardenas
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Since nearly the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and political analysts have seen an urgent need – and opportunity – for Latin America to pursue reform. The argument is simple: The aftershocks of the current crisis will be devastating and long-lasting unless the region takes steps now to strengthen its labor markets and improve fiscal sustainability. That means taking advantage of unusual political circumstances to rally support for difficult decisions that have been put off for far too long. A failure to act would risk turning COVID-19 into the preamble to another lost decade. Unfortunately, there is little to suggest that governments in the region are prepared to use crisis in the present to prepare for the future. Throughout Latin America, the general response to COVID-19 has been to confront the challenge with increased spending. This will not have a happy ending. Governments will inherit massive debts, making it hard to deal with social unrest resulting from increased poverty and unemployment. Instead, the region needs to start making adjustments now – not only to spur economic recovery, but also to plant the seeds for a more sustainable performance down the road. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week added its voice to the chorus of those urging governments not to delay reform. As the region takes on debt to deal with the crisis, it will need to avoid falling over the fiscal cliff once the pandemic subsides, according to the IMF. That could mean, for example, pre-approving tax increases or the reduction in certain spending to be implemented once economic conditions return to normal. Labor laws could be changed to make it less costly for firms to hire (or hire back) workers, at least for the time being. Indeed, the right mix of reforms would have benefits in the short term as well. Given a better reading of future economic risks, markets and credit agencies would likely give countries increased fiscal space and capacity to deal with COVID-19 right now, when it is most needed. But there is little to suggest an appetite for reform. Few if any governments in the region have seriously pursued policy changes with a view not just of the short-term crisis but also their countries’ long-term health. Seldom has the disconnect between the opportunity for reform and the interest in pursuing it been so great. Instead of simply trumpeting the importance of reform, then, it’s important to also ask why it isn’t happening.
Topic:: Public Health, Sustainability, Pandemic, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and North America

344. The LFDD – Human Mobility Nexus in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean: A Review of National Policy and Legal Frameworks

Author:: Diogo Andreola Serraglio
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Addressing human mobility in the context of land and forest degradation and desertification (LFDD) in global and national policy and legal frameworks remains essential for improved management of population movements related to slow onset processes.
Topic:: Environment, Population, Mobility, Land, and Forest
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean

345. Could a Bridge between the EU and Latin America Boost Innovation “Sovereignty” in a Multipolar World?

Author:: Nicola Bilotta and Alissa Siara
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The economic ramifications of COVID-19 will accentuate the technological innovation gap between Latin America and the rest of the world. In a region already suffering from chronic underinvestment in research and development, the strain placed on government budgets by the pandemic-induced economic crisis will push innovation further back down the agenda. The region has compensated for a lack of domestic resources with foreign capital and technology imports from China and the United States. As the US–China relationship becomes more adversarial in the face of COVID, however, Latin America will emerge as a geopolitical battleground whose countries may be forced to choose sides and potentially lose out on capital inflows or technology imports. Navigating this potential storm will involve the region in a search for other options. Public–private partnerships with European Union firms represent one valuable possibility, but Europe and Latin America should first align their innovation agendas.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Institutions, Coronavirus, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: China, South America, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

346. An Uneven Welcome: Latin American and Caribbean Responses to Venezuelan and Nicaraguan Migration

Author:: Andrew Selee and Jessica Bolter
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The sudden mass movement of people fleeing political and economic crises in Venezuela and political unrest in Nicaragua has transformed the migration landscape in Latin America and the Caribbean. Approximately 4.8 million Venezuelans had emigrated by December 2019, the vast majority remaining in the region, and as many as 100,000 Nicaraguans have moved to neighboring Costa Rica since early 2018. This report examines how 11 countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guyana, Mexico, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay—are responding to the mass outflows. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and interviews with government officials and representatives of nongovernmental organizations, migrant-led groups, and international actors, the study analyzes efforts to provide newcomers with legal status and to integrate them into schools, health-care systems, and local labor markets—measures that are important for both migrants and the communities in which they are settling. Overall, receiving countries have shown openness and even creativity, providing legal status to many and access to basic education and emergency health care to most. But as the exodus continues and it becomes clear that large numbers of Venezuelans are likely to remain in their host countries in the mid- to long term, the initially warm welcome has begun to cool in places. Capacity constraints in many education and health-care systems, which existed prior to the arrival of large numbers of newcomers, have also become more acute. Looking ahead, the report sets out a range of recommendations for both receiving countries and the international community. Among them: balancing security and flexibility in entry requirements; strengthening asylum systems and other, more nimble legal pathways; and streamlining credential recognition so migrants’ skills can benefit local communities and economies.
Topic:: Education, Health, Immigration, Employment, Economy, Welfare, and Skills
Political Geography:: Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, and Venezuela

347. Special Commentary: COVID-19: Shaping a Sicker, Poorer, More Violent, and Unstable Western Hemisphere

Author:: Dr. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic will have profound and enduring negative effects on Latin America and the Caribbean, significantly impacting the security, interests, and strategic position of the United States. Department of Defense and other US senior leaders should begin planning now to mitigate or manage the consequences. The effects of COVID-19 on Latin America and the Caribbean, as in many other parts of the developing world, will be far more significant than is commonly anticipated for two reasons. First, the virus will likely play out across the region over an extended length of time owing to a variety of factors discussed later. Second, the pandemic’s mutually reinforcing health, economic, social, and political effects will combine to wreak far more havoc than anticipated in analyses that only consider disease propagation or effects on commerce. Together, these two dynamics of COVID-19 will leave a Latin America that is far sicker, poorer, beset by crime, violence, social unrest, and political instability than today. It will also leave a region with expanded People’s Republic of China (PRC) commercial presence and political influence, even while being more resentful of it.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

348. Global giants and local stars: How changes in brand ownership affect competition

Author:: Vanessa Alviarez, Keith Head, and Thierry Mayer
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4-7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Latin America, and Global Focus

349. Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American countries: A Trade-Off issue

Author:: Jorge Carrera, Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon, and Romain Restout
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper conducts an in-depth empirical investigation on the impact of the exchange rate regime (ERR) on real currency misalignments in a panel of 17 Latin American countries over the 1970-2016 period. We consider explicitly the two dimensions of misalignments, size and persistence, and evaluate four different ERR classifications. We also pay attention to cross-sectional dependencies across countries that appear to be important in Latin America, and provide several robustness checks. Our main findings show that, although fixed ERR perform well in limiting the size of misalignments – and in reducing inflation and fiscal deficit – the disequilibria are more persistent. On the contrary, allowing for more flexibility reduces persistence but increases the size of misalignments. Overall, we show that Latin American countries face a crucial trade-off when they have to choose their ERR.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Latin America

350. COVID-19 and the battle against poverty in the Southern Cone

Author:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: In the third in a series analysing the ways COVID-19 is affecting stability across the world, this paper explores how governments in the Southern Cone of Latin America have responded to the devastating impact of the pandemic on poverty and social indicators in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a huge human, economic and social toll in Latin America − and the Southern Cone in particular − against a backdrop of high levels of informality and urbanisation, underdeveloped social-security nets, and fragmented and underfunded healthcare systems. Despite fiscal constraints, most countries in the Southern Cone have been quick to adopt fiscal-stimulus packages to mitigate the impact of the economic downturn on the most vulnerable. Countries with pre-existing, effective social-safety nets have proven more successful at fighting pandemic-induced poverty. Looking beyond the immediate measures, the pandemic has highlighted the need to address poverty in a durable way in the region. This can be achieved in part by establishing more sustainable development models that emphasise inclusivity.
Topic:: Poverty, Social Services, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

351. Russia: an increasingly repressive autocracy seeking a place on the UN Human Rights Council

Author:: Lara María Kovandova
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:: The Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2020 cautiously points to Vladimir Putin’s forging of an authoritarian-bureaucratic nomenklatura. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have denounced the deteriorating human rights situation in Russia, with freedom of speech and assembly systematically undermined and violated. The recent plebiscite to reform the constitution is the epitome of Mr Putin masquerading the authoritarian regime as a democracy.
Topic:: United Nations, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Vladimir Putin, Human Rights Violations, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch
Political Geography:: Russia, Latin America, and Global Focus

352. BTI and Cuba: the State of democratic denial

Author:: Manuel Cuesta Morúa
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:: Compared with other reports on Cuba, the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) has several noticeable advantages. The first is that it is a comprehensive report, embedded in three pillars: economics, politics and governance. The second is that it captures trends, whereas more reports are static. The third is that it considers themes through indicators, which most reports ignore. And as it is issued every two years it makes it possible to know the consistency (or lack, thereof) of the transformation and its rhythm. The following up. Has Cuba been transformed in 14 years (2006-2020)? Reading the report, it can be concluded that it has, whilst a new concept is introduced: that of static transformation –a sample of changes that leave the structures of a society intact.
Topic:: Human Rights, Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Society, and Human Rights Violations
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, and Global Focus

353. Wage effects of employer-mediated transfers

Author:: Santiago Garriga and Dario Tortarolo
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We explore how the way in which tax credits are disbursed affects employer’s behavior, wages, and employment. We exploit a change in the payment system in Argentina that was gradually rolled out between 2003 and 2010. Under the old system, employers were in charge of delivering family allowances to their employees together with the monthly salary, and the transfer was deducted from employer social security contributions. For transparency purposes, the government eliminated the intermediary role of firms and started depositing the transfer directly into workers’ bank accounts. Using employer-employee administrative data and an event-study approach, we show that the way tax credits are disbursed matters for the final economic incidence. Our evidence suggests that employers shift part of the incidence of the transfer by paying lower wages. We document larger wage effects in small and less unionized firms and we do not find evidence of pay equity concerns (e.g., effect mostly driven by new hires rather than incumbent workers). Our findings are therefore in line with the hypothesis that transfers are not all captured dollar for dollar by workers. These results raise questions about the use of employers as intermediaries to disburse the transfer; where less salient schemes may lead to capture by employers.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Work Culture, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

354. It takes two to tango: Labour responses to an income tax holiday in Argentina

Author:: Dario Tortarolo, Guillermo Cruces, and Victoria Castillo
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We exploit a large, quasi-randomized, 2.5-year-long income tax holiday to identify intertemporal labor responses of high-wage earners to net wage changes. In August 2013, the Argentine government exempted a group of wage earners from the income tax for 2.5 years while leaving in place the tax on other high-wage earners. Eligibility was based on whether past wage earnings were below a fixed threshold, thus levying sharply different marginal and average tax rates—effectively 0% for workers below the threshold. Using rich population-wide administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we estimate a precise and very small wage earnings elasticity of 0.017 for this large, salient, and temporary income tax change. Responses are larger for more flexible outcomes (overtime hours) and for more elastic groups (job switchers and managers). We also find avoidance responses from new entrants who faced no tax if their first monthly wage was below the fixed threshold. This strategic entry below the threshold to dodge taxes required coordination with employers. Our findings indicate rigidities in the labor market that require employer-employee cooperation to be overcome for wage earners to be able to respond to tax changes.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Income Inequality, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

355. Is the Future of Central America’s Growth Sustainable?

Author:: Sergio Martinez and Mauricio Garita
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Central America is a region in the Americas with potential for higher economic growth. For the regional economy to grow in a sustainable manner in the years ahead, policymakers must act on three fronts: economic diversification, workforce upskilling, and intra-regional cooperation.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Poverty, Income Inequality, Economic Growth, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Latin America and Central America

356. High Expectations: Chile’s Path Toward a New Constitution

Author:: Miguel Ángel Martínez-Meucci
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: In Chile, the ongoing constituent process presents a great opportunity, but it also embodies great challenges. Chile’s future will depend on the capacity of the constituent body to reach broad consensus and produce a balanced text that is capable of innovating while preserving the best of what already exists.
Topic:: Civil Society, Governance, Law, and Constitution
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Chile

357. “Not One Women Less, Not One More Death:” Feminist Activism and Policy Responses to Gender-Based Violence in Latin America

Author:: Anya Prusa, Beatriz Garcia Nice, and Olivia Soledad
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: In 2011, Mexican poet and human rights activist Susana Chávez Castillo was tortured and killed in Ciudad Juárez. Eighteen years earlier, she coined the phrase “ni una mujer menos” protesting the unsolved murders of women in that city. Today, those words live on as grassroots movements across Latin America condemn the prevalence of gender-based violence. But, as Chávez’s own narrative suggests, meaningful policy change has been slow.
Topic:: Civil Society, Political Activism, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Latin America and Mexico

358. Beyond a Single Model: Explaining Differences in Inequality within Latin America

Author:: Diego Sánchez-Ancochea
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper studies the determinants of income inequality in Latin America over the long run, comparing them with explanations of why the whole region is unequal. I first show how land inequality can account for differences between Latin America and other parts of the world but how it does not explain within-region differences. Using qualitative comparative analysis, I then consider how political institution and actors interact with the economic structure (i.e., type of export specialization) and with the ethnic composition of the population. The paper has several findings. A low indigenous/afrodescendant population is a necessary condition for relatively low inequality. I identify two sufficient-condition paths, both of which include the role of democracy, political equality, and a small indigenous and afrodescendant population. The first path also includes a favorable export specialization, while the second one includes the presence of leftist presidents instead. The paper calls for more explicit comparisons between our analytical models for the whole region and our explanations of between-country differences. Hopefully, the paper can also trigger more research on how the interactions between ethnicity, politics, and the export structure shape inequality in Latin America.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Political Economy, Poverty, Race, Social Movement, Democracy, Inequality, and Ethnicity
Political Geography:: Latin America

359. Doing Business in Bolivia: a case study in the Andean regulatory framework

Author:: Jorge Ignacio Del Castillo Machicado
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: This article researches on the evolution of the business regulatory framework of Bolivia from 2006 to 2017 and its relationship with the country’s Labor productivity, Total Factor Productivity, and its Informal Economy size. To do this, it analyzes the Doing Business annual reports and standardizes each year overall score to the most recent methodology developed by the World Bank Group. Furthermore, it complements its finding with qualitative data through semi-structured interviews to key actors in the Bolivian economy. Overall, this paper finds that few steps have been taken to improve Bolivia’s Business regulatory framework from the period of 2006-2017, result in a lower rank in the Doing Business report and keeping its score constant. The lack of initiative in working towards more efficient policies, complex nature and poor adaptability of new technological practices have stagnated the improvements of business regulations along their lifecycles. As a consequence, Bolivia Total Factor Productivity, Informal Economy size and Labor productivity have shown no improvement over the last 10 years.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, World Bank, Regulation, and Business
Political Geography:: Latin America and Bolivia

360. COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Elina Ribakova
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large negative impact on these countries’ fiscal accounts, and the related solvency issues, worsening conditions for these countries’ external funding are a major challenge.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Central Bank, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Latin America

361. Elite Political Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts

Author:: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel García-Sánchez, and Aila M. Matanock
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: Citizens are often asked to evaluate peace agreements seeking to end civil conflicts, by voting on referendums or the negotiating leaders or, even when not voting, deciding whether to cooperate with the implementation of policies like combatant reintegration. In this paper, we assess how citizens form attitudes towards the provisions in peace agreements. These contexts tend to have high polarization, and citizens are asked to weigh in on complex policies, so we theorize that citizens will use cues from political elites with whom they have affinity, and, without these cues, information will have less effect. We assess our theory using survey experiments in Colombia. We find citizens rely on political elites’ cues to form their opinion on a peace agreement’s provisions, with the direction depending on the citizen’s affinity with the political elites. Additional information about these policies has little effect. The paper suggests that even these high stakes decisions can be seen as political decisions as usual.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Citizenship, Conflict, Peace, and Elites
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

362. COVID-19 and External Shock: Economic Impacts and Policy Options

Author:: Miguel Jaramillo and Hugo Nopo
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:: Latin America is currently suffering from two independent but related shocks: the impact of COVID-19 and the shock of commodity prices. Peru, we argue, is a case in which the strongest impact comes from the pandemic. Peru was the first country in Latin America to react and implement sanitary and economic measures against the coronavirus. The country has been in mandatory quarantine since Monday, March 16. This carries very important challenges for all economic actors. Global and national activity has suffered a sudden stop with direct implications for: (i) the income generating capacity of independent workers, (ii) the jobs of formal and informal and informal workers, and (iii) the survival of small, medium and large companies. In this note we consider the situation of Peruvian households in the face of the pandemic, exploring their vulnerabilities through an analysis of their main source of income generation: work. We also consider the situation of the companies that employ the workers under analysis. We present an overview of what the government’s main action have been so far and offer some recommendations.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Economic Policy, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and Peru

363. A new energy strategy for the Western Hemisphere

Author:: David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In 2019, the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center began an effort in partnership with the United States Department of Energy to consider a fresh approach to energy in the Americas that is comprehensive in nature and targeted in its approach. Following a year-long period of engagements alongside six representative stakeholder countries participating, the resulting report: “A New US Energy Strategy for the Western Hemisphere,” was launched in March 2020 and will serve as the launch point for additional work by the Atlantic Council on energy and sustainability issues across the hemisphere.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, Nuclear Power, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

364. PeaceGame Venezuela: Pathways to Peace

Author:: Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In October 2019, PeaceGame Venezuela convened global leaders in Washington, D.C. to advance thinking around how Venezuelans and the international community should prepare for the potential of complete state collapse in Venezuela. This undesirable scenario must be considered as the domestic situation and the regional and global implications further deteriorate. This high-level crisis simulation was a collaboration between Foreign Policy, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, and Florida International University.
Topic:: Human Rights, Peacekeeping, Democracy, Crisis Management, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

365. COVID-19 Impact on the Policy Brief Value Chain in Latin America

Author:: Karolien van Teijlingen and Barbara Hogenboom
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: COVID-19 struck Latin America in the middle of what was already a tough economic, political and social period. This policy brief looks into the effects of the pandemic on employment and labour rights in the Colombian and Peruvian large-scale mining sectors. Mining has been severely affected by low commodity prices and demand, interrupted supply chains, national lockdowns and the (partial) closure of operations. Companies have tried to cut costs on the back of their labour force, resulting in layoffs, renegotiations and suspension of contracts. Informal economies around mining operations also suffer from the fall in demand for services and goods. The most impacted groups are outsourced workers and workers in the informal economy, the latter being predominantly women. On the long-term, these countries risks a race to the bottom in terms of labour rights. The brief calls upon (Dutch) companies and investors working in the Latin American commodity sectors to put social and economic justice at the centre of their operations.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Mining, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

366. Latin American Brotherhood? Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution

Author:: Julian Martinez-Correa, Leonardo Peñaloza Pacheco, and Leonardo Gasparini
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The effect of immigration on preferences for redistribution has been recently studied in the context of developed countries receiving migrants from poorer coun- tries with very different cultural backgrounds. In this paper we explore this issue in the context of migration across similar Latin American countries. To this aim, we exploit data at the provincial level from a large attitudinal survey (LAPOP) and match it to immigration data from different sources. We follow three approaches: first, we implement an instrumental variables approach in a cross-section of cen- suses; second we estimate fixed effects models with data from a large sample of harmonized national household surveys, and third we exploit the massive inflow of Venezuelan refugees into the border country of Colombia with an instrumental vari- ables methodology. Our results suggest a significant, negative and non-monotonic relationship between the share of immigrants at the provincial level and the sup- port for redistribution policies. This anti-redistribution effect is larger among those individuals with higher income.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Refugees, Inequality, and Redistribution
Political Geography:: Latin America

367. The Impossibility of a Defence Policy in the Americas? Comparing Hemispheric and South American Security Concepts and Military Roles

Author:: Marina Gisela Vitelli
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: This article analyses the competing security perspectives of hemispheric and South Amer- ican defence cooperation initiatives. While the Organization of American States (OAS) emphasises domestic roles for armed forces in the region, concentrating on internal threats such as organised crime and terrorism, the South American Defence Council (CDS) emphasises the traditional con- ception of security, concentrating on the defence of sovereign states against external military threats. Despite its apparent consistency, the concept of deterrent cooperation has not taken hold. While the literature interprets this failure as a cooperation problem, I argue that it is due to a deeper re- gional trend, namely the tendency to neglect external defence in favour of internal security roles for armed forces. After building a conceptual framework for clarifying these divergent perspectives, I show how they define the activities of the two competing organisations. Next, I address the conflict between the CDS’s conception of security and the security policies of OAS member states. Finally, I discuss domestic and structural obstacles to the adoption of common Latin American defence policies.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

368. The Relation Among Regional Organisations, the Consolidation of Democracy and Citizen Security: The Cases of SICA and UNASUR

Author:: Octavio Amorim Neto
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Latin American regional organisations (ROs) have been active in the area of citizen se- curity for at least a twenty year-period. An important relationship between citizen security and the democratic consolidation of ROs’ official documents in the Latin American region has been unexplored. This leads us to the main question of this paper: ‘What has been the role of ROs with a formalized level of citizen security cooperation in the democratic consolidation?’ To answer this question, this research was based on two case studies: The Central American Integration System (SICA) and the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) between 2008 and 2018, the period during which both organizations acted in the area of citizen security. The methodology used in this research was process tracing and comparative process tracing. Its results indicate that organisations developed a vision of how cooperative actions in citizen security can promote the consolidation of democracy by strengthening the rule of law. However, actors are sceptical of the ability of ROs to succeed, given the lack of political interest and the deficit of resources, that are major barriers for them to achieve great success in the citizen security field and, consequently, in the consolidation of democracy. The conclusion is that the analysed ROs produce a lot in terms of documents, but do little in achieving their ambitions, hence constituting, in and of themselves, a reflection of the flaws of the Latin American regionalism.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Democracy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

369. Technology Solutions for Supply Chain Traceability in the Brazilian Amazon: Opportunities for the Financial Sector

Author:: Brodie Ferguson, Julia Sekula, and Ilona Szabo de Carvalho
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The Amazon is reaching a point that may be irreversible, in which its biome, and with it the global climate, will suffer irreparable damage, negatively impacting not only local communities, but also entire regions and industries. In this article, the Igarapé Institute analyzes challenges around illegal deforestation and recommends measures that, when supported and adopted by financial institutions, will have a rapid, effective and large-scale impact on the control of illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. To this end, the article analyzes current practices in standards and benchmarking for soy farming, livestock and timber extraction. Although the financial sector has started the process of adopting policies against deforestation, few institutions make them mandatory for loan contracts or actively monitor them. This article also highlights some of the key technologies that support greater traceability of the supply chains needed to measure progress on ESG metrics. Remote sensing, big data and artificial intelligence now offer unprecedented ability to track specific environmental impacts of properties, licenses and concessions.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Science and Technology, Finance, Data, Supply Chains, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and Amazon Basin

370. Environmental Crime in the Amazon Basin: A Typology for Research, Policy and Action

Author:: Adriana Abdenur, Brodie Ferguson, Ilona Szabo de Carvalho, Melina Risso, and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: According to the world’s top scientific experts, deforestation and degradation are up 25 percent in the first six months compared to last year. More forests are being cleared in 2020 than at any point in the past 15 years. Although spectacular levels of illegal burning have occupied global headlines, a host of other less visible but equally significant environmental crimes are being committed throughout the Amazon basin every day. Such crimes not only impact biodiversity and the global climate, but are virtually always associated with social ills ranging from corruption to slavery and violence. A new paper from the Igarape Institute – Environmental Crime in the Amazon Basin: a Typology for Research, Policy and Action – introduces a typology to help better understand the scope and scale of the problem and its extensive social and environmental impacts. To date, one of the principal barriers to better policing of the Amazon is the confusion and ambiguity of what is, and is not, a crime. Different countries apply different interpretations which can frustrate investigations and the enforcement of existing laws. The new paper is designed to provide greater clarity to policy makers, law enforcement agencies, civil society actors, and companies committed to curbing environmental crime.
Topic:: Crime, Environment, Public Policy, Ecology, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, and Amazon Basin

371. The rise and fall of import substitution

Author:: Douglas A. Irwin
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: n the 1950s, many economists believed that import substitution—policies to restrict imports of manufactured goods—was the best trade strategy to promote industrialization and economic growth in developing countries. By the mid-1960s, however, there was widespread disenchantment with the results of such a policy, even among its proponents. This paper traces the rise and fall of import substitution as a development idea. Perhaps surprisingly, early advocates of import substitution were quite cautious in their support for the policy and were also among the first to question it based on evidence derived from country experiences.
Topic:: Economy, Trade Policy, Protectionism, and Imports
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

372. Unsettlements: The Potential Termination of Temporary Protected Status and the Threat of Displacement Among Salvadorans in the United States

Author:: Joseph Wiltberger
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The 2018 decision by the US government to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Salvadorans, the largest population of TPS holders, would displace nearly 200,000, many of whom have lived in the United States for decades. TPS, a form of humanitarian relief that provides a broad set of protections for those who have fled disaster and instability in their countries of origin, has been continually reapproved for Salvadorans over many years, making it a liminal legal status that has come to resemble a permanent legal status. This paper examines the unsettling effects of this decision, should it be enforced, for Salvadoran holders of TPS (TPSianos) who have established lives and families in the United States. The decision to abruptly end TPS threatens TPSianos and their family members with forced displacement and extraordinary hardships; the decision also has the potential to send them to live under dangerous conditions in El Salvador. Drawing from ethnographic findings, the paper shows how the decision contradicts the logics and realities of permanency in the United States that have guided TPSianos’ future planning and expectations that they should be allowed to transition to a more permanent legal status. Conceptualizing such disruptions and contradictions wrapped up in the ending of TPS for Salvadorans as an entanglement of unsettlements, this analysis extends scholarship on the political, economic, and legal dynamics surrounding TPS and on the lived experiences of liminal legality.
Topic:: Civil Society, Migration, Citizenship, Borders, Public Policy, and transnationalism
Political Geography:: Latin America, El Salvador, and United States of America

373. Shoutings, Scoldings, Talkings, and Whispers: Mothers’ Reponses to Armed Actors and Militarization in Two Caracas Barrios

Author:: Verónica Zubillaga and Rebecca Hanson
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: How do mothers deal with chronic violence and the constant presence of guns in their neighborhoods? How do they relate to the armed actors who inhabit their neighborhoods? How do they build situated meaning and discursive practices out of their experiences and relationships with armed actors? We compare the experience of women in two poor and working-class neighborhoods in Caracas. La Caracola, with a long history of civic organizations and drug trafficking, suffers regular, extortionate actions by the police. La Piedad has been ravaged by militarized police operations, which have produced a "warfare mode" among the members of organized criminal groups. Through this comparative ethnographic project we aim to show how, in the midst of state-sponsored depredation and with an overwhelming presence of guns in their lives, women use their traditional cultural roles as mothers to perform everyday forms of resistance vis-à-vis the different armed actors that impose their presence in the barrios. We focus on how women make and communicate meanings; engage in social networks with other women; and employ different discursive strategies as they deal with the armed actors. We foreground women’s experiences in two barrios, asking what material and historical conditions make these different experiences possible. In the mothers’ daily struggles, dramatic discursive actions—from more openly oppositional, such as shouting, scolding, and talking, to more hidden ones, such as, both “circulating gossip” and “captive gossip” to more helpless ones, such as whispering—are their main resources in the micropolitics of their neighborhoods.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Gender Issues, Conflict, Violence, Peace, and Social Networks
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

374. The Emergence of Democracy in Colombia

Author:: Raúl L. Madrid
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Although Colombia had many important democratic achievements in the 19th century, this paper argues that democracy first took root there at the outset of the 20th century. Several key developments enabled democratic practices and institutions to take hold. First, the savage Thousand Days War (1899–1902) and the ensuing professionalization of the Colombian military helped bring an end to the cycle of rebellion in Colombia. In their wake, the opposition abandoned the armed struggle and began to focus on the electoral path to power, thereby reducing the government’s inclination to engage in repression. Second, the rise of strong parties also contributed to the emergence of democracy in Colombia. Two powerful parties, the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party, arose in Colombia during the 19th century. From 1886 until 1930, the Liberal Party was in the opposition, and Liberals pushed for reforms to guarantee minority representation and reduce electoral fraud and intimidation. Third and finally, a split within the ruling Conservative Party made the enactment of these reforms feasible. The Liberals did not have sufficient strength or influence to pass the key democratic reforms, but in the early 1900s, some Conservative dissidents broke with their party and allied with Liberals to form the Republican Union party. The Republican Union pushed through the key constitutional reforms in 1910, and it, along with the Liberal Party, helped ensure their implementation in the years that followed.
Topic:: Politics, Democracy, Conflict, Peace, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

375. Effects of interest rate caps on microcredit: evidence from a natural experiment in Bolivia

Author:: María José Roa, Alejandra Villegas, and Ignacio Garrón
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: This paper evaluates the imposition of caps on microcredit lending rates through directed credit policies for productive sectors. This financial inclusion intervention provides a unique quasi-experiment, allowing to estimate its causal effect following a difference-in-differences analysis. Our results suggest that the imposition of interest rate ceilings negatively affected the portfolio balance of new microcredits and loans to SMEs granted by MFIs. Particularly, we find robust results indicating that the balance of the microcredit and SME loans portfolio granted by MFIs, relative to the company portfolio granted by banks, decreased by 26.1% for an average MFI for the period 2011-2018.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Microcredit, Credit, and Lending
Political Geography:: Latin America and Bolivia

376. Life and Death During the First Six Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Lykke E. Andersen and Alejandra Gonzales Rocabado
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: This study carries out a cross-country analysis of changes in quantity and quality of life during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic (11 March to 11 September 2020) for 124 countries. Changes in quantity of life are measured as life years lost to COVID-19, including excess deaths not officially reported as COVID-19 deaths. Changes in quality of life are proxied by the average change in daily mobility, compared to a pre-COVID baseline. We find a significant negative correlation between the two, meaning that the countries with the biggest reductions in mobility are also the countries with the biggest losses of life years. We calculate that about 15 million life years were lost during the first six months of the pandemic, corresponding to 0.006% of all expected life years. For comparison, at least three times more life years are lost every six months due to children dying of diarrhea. About 28 million life years are created every day from babies being born, so the first six months of the pandemic set us back about 14 hours in terms of quantity of life. The setbacks in terms of quality of life are several orders of magnitude larger. Some countries have suffered more than a 50% reduction in mobility sustained over half a year, with devastating effects on many aspects of quality of life. Globally, the equivalent of 400 million full-time jobs were lost. GDP is estimated to have been set back about three years, poverty about five years, and the tourism industry about 20 years. The already large inequalities in access to quality education have been further widened, leaving hundreds of millions of disadvantaged children farther behind. Even countries that have managed the pandemic relatively well are suffering large economic contractions due to the negative spill-over effects from other countries. We still have a long way to go before this pandemic is over, and we urgently need to course-correct in order not to cause even more harm than has already been done. The paper provides a series of recommendations on what needs to be done to minimize total harm.
Topic:: Political Economy, GDP, Mobility, Mortality, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Quality of Life
Political Geography:: Latin America and Bolivia

377. La brecha de ciberseguridad en América Latina frente al contexto global de ciberamenazas (The Cyber Security Gap in Latin America Against the Global Context of Cyber Threats)

Author:: Juan Manuel Aguilar Antonio
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La presente investigación parte de la hipótesis de que los gobiernos de América Latina y el Caribe están rezagados en la construcción de ciber capacidades de defensa para enfrentar el contexto actual e internacional de ciber amenazas, respecto a los países miembros de la Organización del Tratado del Atlántico Norte (OTAN), tanto en el plano de organización, como en el individual. Para probar este enunciado el texto se divide en seis secciones. En la primera se presenta el entorno global amenazas provenientes de ciberespacio, las pérdidas económicas que sufren gobiernos y empresas según informes de firmas de seguridad informática como Kaspersky, Microsoft, Verizon e International Business Machines Corporation (IBM). En la segunda parte, se aborda el proceso de securitización del internet, la inmersión de la ciberseguridad en los estudios de seguridad nacional, así como la definición de ciber capacidades y delimitación de amenazas al Estado-Nación desde el ciberespacio. En la tercera se aborda la trayectoria de la OTAN como organización en el desarrollo ciber capacidades en los últimos veinte años. En la cuarta parte, se analiza desde el nivel individual un conjunto de Estrategias Nacionales de Ciberseguridad (ENCS) de los países y aliados de la OTAN, de las cuales se extraen sus principales elementos y se esquematiza su anatomía general. En la sexta parte, se presenta una aproximación a diferentes entornos regionales o globales de ciberseguridad con base a mediciones del Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI), de la Unión Internacional de Telecomunicaciones (ITU por sus siglas en inglés), y el National Cyber Security Index (NSCI) de la E-Governance Academy de Estonia. En la quinta sección se presenta el contexto de la ciberseguridad en América Latina y el Caribe, según estudios realizados por el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) y la Organización de los Estados Americanos (OEA), así como firmas privadas de ciberseguridad. En la sexta, se presenta de manera breve dos estudios de caso de México, del bienio 2019-2020, que representan la falta de madurez de su ENCS y desarrollo de ciber capacidades, aspecto que comparte con la mayoría de los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Por último, se presentan unas breves conclusiones sobre los aspectos a fortalecer por la región.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:: Latin America

378. The Just Transition in Energy

Author:: Ian Goldin
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: With each new year of data, and each new intergovernmental report, it becomes harder to deny the scale and urgency of the energy transition required to prevent catastrophic anthropogenic climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change urges countries to take action to prevent a rise in temperature by more than 1.5°C, and warns of catastrophic consequences of a rise above 2°C. Yet current policies and pledges fall far short of hitting these targets. Worse, since harmful climate change is caused by the stock of carbon in the atmosphere, the longer we delay measures to limit the flow of new carbon into the atmosphere, the more drastic those measures will have to be. This uneven distribution of threat and responsibility raises difficult questions. Developed countries are generally more advanced in their transition to renewables, which means that some of the cheapest opportunities to reduce emissions are in developing countries. Yet the fact remains that developed countries are responsible for a larger share of historic emissions—and developing countries may have a right to pursue development unhindered, as developed countries did in earlier decades. There are therefore several elements of the “just transition” in energy. The world needs to transition to cleaner energy, and the developing world needs to keep developing, all while supporting the countries and communities that bear the highest costs of mitigation measures—and supporting those areas already beginning to feel the negative effects of climate change. This report will outline the key challenges and opportunities and conclude with a series of practical steps available to policymakers.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Security, Crisis Management, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, India, East Asia, South Africa, Latin America, West Africa, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

379. Starting Young to Prevent Violence Against Women

Author:: Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
Abstract:: More than 50 percent of children have experienced some form of sexual, physical or emotional abuse or neglect in their lifetime. The wide-ranging and lifelong consequences of witnessing or experiencing violence in childhood can be profound.1 Individuals exposed to childhood violence, including child sexual abuse, physical abuse and harm, or witnessing the abuse of their mothers, are at greater risk of becoming perpetrators or victims as adults. Through our core work and grant-making, the Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) is building evidence to help us respond to violence as early as possible and to stop it from continuing. Between 2016 and 2020, we funded several studies on violence against children in Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and other regions (in partnership with the World Bank Group). This research has taught us that services and prevention programmes must start with parents and families, and continue throughout the individual’s life. To be most effective, programmes need to target critical development phases, from pre-conception and conception through early childhood to adolescence. Programmes to prevent violence in the home, including programmes that offer parenting support, are essential. Continuing research into childhood violence, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, is essential. Research can help us to effectively prevent and respond to both violence against women and violence against children, and it is essential for creating policies and practices that really work.
Topic:: Education, Children, Gender Based Violence, and Youth
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia

380. Colombia’s shale resource potential

Author:: John D. Padilla
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Oil and gas production is a significant driver of Colombia’s economic growth. With decreased conventional hydrocarbon production in recent years, unconventional shale resources could provide additional revenues from the sector and stimulate growth as the country recovers from COVID-19. But care must be taken to ensure that shale production is environmentally sound and that royalties reach local communities. As the Iván Duque administration prepares to award investigative pilot projects (PPIIs) for shale development in November 2020, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and Global Energy Center launched on October 29 the report “Colombia’s Shale Resource Potential,” the second in the Global Energy Center’s Future of Shale series. In the report, John D. Padilla explores the necessary conditions for successful shale development in Colombia. He analyzes key global and local factors that will determine whether the country’s abundant shale resources can be developed safely and sustainably. The new report argues that the most important factors that will support sustainable shale development are political will, legal certainty, and a robust, yet flexible, regulatory framework for PPIIs.
Topic:: Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, and Energy
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

381. Reflections On The U.S.–Mexico Relationship

Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández served as Mexico’s Ambassador to the United States (2017-2018). He played a prominent role in the negotiation of the United States of America, Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA). Currently, he is managing partner of BEEL Infrastructure, a specialized advisory & asset management firm focused on the infrastructure sector in Latin America. He also provides strategic advice to businesses and governments on political risk, public affairs and communications and business development; and serves in the Board of Directors of U.S. – Mexico Business Association (AEM) and the Advisory Board of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. Brown Journal of World Affairs: During your time as ambassador, the U.S.– Mexico relationship was highly politicized due to President Trump’s rhetoric. How did you navigate balancing between building a relationship with the U.S. government and standing up for your country?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Immigration, NAFTA, and USMCA
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and Mexico

382. Las mujeres y la construcción de paz: recomendaciones para la Comisión de Esclarecimiento de la Verdad en el proceso de inclusión de la perspectiva de género en el Caribe colombiano

Author:: Diana Gómez Correal, Angélica Arias Preciado, Mónica Durán Scott, Auris Murillo Jiménez, Angélica Bernal Olarte, Diana Montealegre Mongrovejo, Marina López Sepúlveda, and Yusmidia Solano Suárez
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre Desarrollo (CIDER), Universidad de los Andes
Abstract:: Este documento de política pública hace parte de la investigación “Inclusión de las afectaciones vividas por las mujeres y sus procesos de resistencia en las Comisiones de la Verdad de Perú y Colombia: miradas retro y prospectivas de la justicia transicional” liderada por la profesora Diana Gómez. Es producto de un trabajo colaborativo entre el Cider de la Universidad de los Andes, la Red de Mujeres del Caribe, la Colectiva Feministas Emancipatorias, la Universidad Nacional de Colombia sede Caribe, la Universidad del Atlántico y la Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano. El documento de política pública resalta la importante tarea que ha desarrollado la Comisión en la región Caribe con la puesta en marcha de toda la infraestructura institucional que le da forma a la macro-región, los esfuerzos por la implementación de la perspectiva de género y la inclusión de las vivencias de las mujeres en el mandato de la CEV, al tiempo que evalúa los logros y retos que existen en la incorporación de la perspectiva de género. El documento contiene recomendaciones producto de un trabajo de campo que hizo seguimiento a la implementación de la Comisión durante los primeros nueve meses en el Caribe colombiano. Las recomendaciones giran en torno a la inclusión del género y en especial de las vivencias de las mujeres en el mandato de la Comisión, y se estructuran en siete ejes de análisis: participación, esclarecimiento, sanación, reconocimiento de las mujeres como sujeto político, convivencia, funcionamiento de la CEV e informe final. Estos ejes de análisis alimentan los objetivos y mandatos de la CEV.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Social Justice, and Truth
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

383. ¿Cómo identificar hechos metropolitanos? Una aproximación para Bogotá y Medellín

Author:: Andrés Hernández, Ethel Segura, and Cristhian Molina
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre Desarrollo (CIDER), Universidad de los Andes
Abstract:: Esta publicación recoge los tres mejores trabajos de identificación de hechos metropolitanos elaborados en el curso de Métodos de análisis del territorio, ofrecido en el primer semestre de 2018 por el profesor Andrés Hernández, la catedrática Ethel Segura y el consultor Cristhian Molina. En una discusión interdisciplinaria que permitió la integración de distintas perspectivas, los estudiantes de la Maestría en Planificación Urbana y Regional del Cider usaron las tres técnicas usadas en el curso para desarrollar los estudios de caso: i) la metodología de hechos metropolitanos, ii) los mapas elaborados por ellos y iii) el análisis normativo y las fuentes de información. Sobre esta base, a lo largo del semestre los autores hicieron un ejercicio de análisis comparado de los hechos metropolitanos en Bogotá Región y en el área metropolitana de Medellín. Los casos de estudio fueron los siguientes: i) los servicios de provisión en los territorios que hacen parte del borde rural oriental de Bogotá, ii) la cuenca del Río Bogotá como estructurante de la nueva área metropolitana, iii) el tren de cercanías como detonante del área metropolitana de Bogotá y, iv) la segregación socioespacial en el área metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá. De esta manera, el nuevo Documento de Trabajo da cuenta de un análisis detallado desde ciertos hechos metropolitanos, el cual permite evidenciar la importancia del estudio de diferentes tipos de fenómenos que transforman los territorios en escala metropolitana y del territorio en su complejidad. Además, posibilita un mejor análisis de las dinámicas detrás de los mismos (oportunidades, tensiones y conflictos).
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Economic Development, Territory, Metropolitanism, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

384. COVID-19 in Latin America: Challenges, responses, and consequences

Author:: Peder Østebø and Vegard Bye
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: While containment efforts were quickly implemented in many countries, COVID-19 may still prove to have a long-lasting effect in Latin America, a region already marked by economic disarray and political instability. Economic projections suggest that Latin American economies will be among the most affected by the current halt in global trade and consumption. As many countries have recently faced political turmoil, massive containment efforts raise a number of questions on legitimacy and citizen-state relations. In some countries, democratic processes essential for the upholding of democratic legitimacy have been halted. In Brazil, the central government’s handling of the crisis has been an important factor contributing to a severe political crisis. A geopolitical vacuum may provide China with an opportunity to increase its importance for the region.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Destabilization
Political Geography:: China and Latin America

385. The coronavirus pandemic and its challenges to women’s work in Latin America

Author:: Diana Gutiérrez, Guillermina Martin, and Hugo Nopo
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has spread throughout the world and Latin America has not been exempt from its health, economic and social impacts. The economic shutdown, as a result of a combination of stringent measures (self-quarantines, mandatory lockdowns, limited capacity in shops, factories and offices, border closures, etc.), is having a profound economic and social impact. In the labor market it has shocked both supply and demand. Within households, it has resulted in an increase in the unpaid workload, burdening women disproportionately, further reducing the time they can allocate to productive activities. The crisis’s impacts and depth are felt differently by they can widen existing gender gaps. In this paper, the authors explore the impacts of the crisis on employment in sixteen countries in the region. In addition, they analize gender impacts through four lenses: young people, people living in poverty, people living in rural areas and heads of the family. Researchers present a set of policy option aimed at integrating the gender approach into the entire pandemic world. Emphasizing the need for cross-sectional solutions, the authors propose policies in three main areas: the home, work and the spaces between work and home. This will enable socio-economic recovery policies to not only soften short-term impacts, but also further equal opportunities for women and men in the medium and long terms.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Health, International Political Economy, Women, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Latin America

386. Latin America and the New Global Order

Author:: Antonella Mori
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Amid the coronavirus pandemic, global geopolitical relations are being shaken to their roots, and Latin America is no different. The region is experiencing new transformations in political, economic, and societal terms. In turn, all these rapid changes are having an impact on how Latin American countries shape their own foreign policies, and on how they adapt to the challenges of an increasingly multipolar world. How are the US, China, and the EU competing in terms of political alliances and economic projection on the Latin American region? And how are some of the main Latin American countries (namely Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela) contributing to shape these new regional dynamics?
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Economy, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, Latin America, Venezuela, Mexico, and United States of America

387. Citizen Participation in Latin America’s Supreme Audit Institutions: Progress or Impasse?

Author:: Marcos Mendiburu
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: The notion of citizen participation in external audit processes dates back to the end of the 20th century. A few declarations of the General Assembly of the Organization of Latin American and Caribbean Supreme Audit Institutions (OLACEFS) and the work of its Citizen Participation Commission (CPC) have contributed to its conceptualization and recognition, encouraging the work of Supreme Audit Institutions (SAI) around this theme. This has been reflected in the institutional strategic plans and annual reports of a set of SAIs in the region. Therefore, the current debate now goes beyond whether citizen participation in the audit process is necessary and why. After more than two decades since the first reference to citizen participation in external auditing in a statement from the OLACEFS General Assembly, the question is how much and in which way SAIs’ promotion of citizen participation has made progress, and what are the results to date. That is to say, the question currently centers around the scope and depth of such citizen participation. Based on in-depth interviews and desk-review, as well as submitting requests for information, the analysis shows that the incorporation of the term “citizen participation” as an ingredient for audit process has advanced at a faster rate than its implementation. The implementation of citizen participation varies significantly among SAIs in the region in terms of its scope and depth. In many cases, it is still limited to a bounded exercise—generally a particular type of practice and/or to promoting participation during a specific phase of the audit cycle. Nonetheless, there is no evidence of the existence of a meaningful strategy—with specific objectives, instruments and results indicators—for citizen participation linked to broader organizational and learning processes within SAIs, nor a profound transformation in the exercise of audits. For this reason, after 20 years, it is worth considering whether progress is really being made, or there is an impasse in addressing citizen participation by SAIs in the region. In terms of the scope of citizen participation in oversight in the audit cycle, with exceptions, there is a significant deficit of practices and experiences of participation in SAIs during the phase of executing audits and following up on the findings and recommendations issued by SAIs. Regarding the depth of citizen participation in audits, there is an emphasis on the use of citizen complaints or channels for denunciations [although evaluations of its effectiveness are lacking] as well as dissemination of audit reports, followed by public awareness or training. However, according to the maturity model on citizen participation proposed by the Declaration of the OLACEFS General Assembly of Punta Cana in 2016, the practice of citizen complaints is associated with its most basic level of citizen participation. Furthermore, SAIs tend to promote consultative practices rather than collaborative practices, unlike other innovative spaces for participation, such as the Open Government Partnership. Finally, the number of SAIs that use new information and communication technologies for participation and collaboration with citizens is limited—beyond the use of online complaint systems and social media for communicating SAI work. For this reason, the question arises as to how far SAIs are adapting to the latest innovations and changes in citizen participation. This working paper provides an overview of citizen participation in external auditing in Latin America. After the introduction, Chapter 2 presents a synthesis of the evolution on citizen participation within the OLACEFS, as well as the progress observed in SAIs in the region. Chapter 3 proposes an analytical framework on citizen participation in auditing based on two dimensions: its scope and depth. Chapter 4 examines a set of SAI citizen participation practices in the region according to the four-level classification (basic / low / intermediate and advanced) proposed in the OLACEFS Declaration of Punta Cana. Chapter 5 analyzes a couple of practices and experiences of citizen participation in auditing due to its degree of institutionalization: participatory planning in the annual audit program of Argentina’s General Audit Office and the articulated audit at the General Comptroller Office of Colombia. Chapter 6 delves into the citizen participation policy of the General Comptroller Office of Colombia. Finally, the conclusion highlights some findings and recommendations for the future. As a result of the analysis undertaken, this study recommends that the OLACEFS’ Citizen Participation Commission promote an evaluation of the extent of citizen participation in each SAI according to its proposed levels of maturity, and that each SAI publicly reports on the effectiveness of the practices implemented (including the SAI’s responsiveness) as well as the impact of such citizen participation on external auditing. Brendan Halloran of the International Budget Partnership contributes a preface that frames citizen engagement with Supreme Audit Institutions in the broader context of accountability ecosystems. This study was commissioned by ControlaTuGobierno and ARC as a background study for the International Seminar on Citizen Participation and Oversight, held Sept. 2-4, 2020 with governmental and civil society participants from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia Mexico and Peru. https://fiscalizacion2020.mx/
Topic:: Accountability, Transparency, Participation, and Audit
Political Geography:: Latin America

388. Latin America Under CoronaShock: Social Crisis, Neoliberal Failure, and the People’s Alternatives

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The emergence of COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean has accelerated – sometimes dramatically – a series of economic and social processes that had long been underway and revealed the result of decades of neoliberal policies. The increasingly authoritarian policies, precariousness of labour, and the current social crisis are among the consequences of the neoliberal model, which puts capital before people.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Neoliberalism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and North America

389. “Stranger Things”: the future of Latin American regionalism

Author:: Maria Victoria Alvarez
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:: Latin American attempts at regionalism have been pursued through different waves. The last wave, post-liberal or post-hegemonic regionalism, is fading. Building on contributions from International Political Economy, European Studies and International Relations, the paper aims at answering two main questions: how can we characterize the current paths of regional integration in Latin America considering the trends of the last ten years? What can we expect of Latin American regionalism over the next decade? Grounded on a qualitative content analysis, we address three premises based on the past trajectory of Latin American regionalism in order to grasp some of the present and (possible) futures trends: membership of regional organizations, institutional design of regional organizations and the role of the United States. After contrasting these elements with recent Latin American regionalist developments, the paper engages in a creative exercise of forecasting. The purpose is not to pretend to know the future nor to predict it but to present two imaginable scenarios: a short-term scenario and a longer-term scenario. Maybe we are about to witness some “stranger things” in the future of Latin American regionalism, opening up to different realities, different explanations and alternatives.
Topic:: Political Economy, Regional Integration, Regionalism, and Future
Political Geography:: Latin America and United States of America

390. The new Latin American neo-patriotic far-right: reactionary internationalism and its challenge to the international liberal order

Author:: Jose Antonio Sanahuja
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:: Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:: This work argues that the new far-right, which we characterise as neo-patriotic, emerges through a combination of agency and structural factors amid a crisis of globalisation, understanding it as a crisis in the hegemonic order. The crisis of globalisation opens opportunities for the rise of a new far-right which redefines the popular, the national, and the international based on Schmittian friend-enemy distinctions, as an autonomous categorisation, which gives political meaning to their identity as a political actor. A key element of this identity is a reactionary internationalism based on the defence of tradition against cosmopolitan globalism. Thus, the reinstatement of a traditionalist “Arcadia” gives meaning to the process of re-politization and challenges to the liberal international order, its national, regional, and global dimensions, universalist and globalist discourse, and its teleologies of progress. In sum, these actors do not merely question globalisation as an established order but fight for the construction of an alternative international order of a reactionary type.
Topic:: Globalization, Liberal Order, Far Right, International Order, and Reactionary Internationalism
Political Geography:: Latin America

391. De los hechos a la planeación metropolitana: Una metodología para determinar el impacto metropolitano de proyectos territoriales

Author:: Andrés Hernández, Sergio Montero, Rafael H. Forero, and Jairo Ávila Zabala
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre Desarrollo (CIDER), Universidad de los Andes
Abstract:: En este documento se presenta una metodología de planeación que busca determinar ex-ante el impacto metropolitano que pueden tener diferentes proyectos territoriales y una herramienta a partir de la cual se puede realizar un ejercicio de priorización de dichos proyectos. La metodología mezcla métodos cualitativos y cuantitativos y se compone de dos fases: i) Identificación cualitativa de los Hechos Metropolitanos (entendidos como los principales fenómenos que afectan a dos o más municipios de una metrópoli); y ii) Priorización cuantitativa de proyectos de acuerdo con el impacto que estos causan en los hechos identificados. El texto está dividido en cuatro secciones. En la primera se presenta el origen histórico, conceptual y legal del concepto de Hecho Metropolitano así como la relación entre este concepto y diversas prácticas de gestión metropolitana. En la segunda parte se expone la metodología de determinación de impacto metropolitano y el instrumento para poder priorizar estos proyectos. En la tercera parte se presenta el caso del Área Metropolitana de Guadalajara como uno de los primeros ejemplos en los que se aplicó la metodología. El documento termina con una serie de reflexiones finales basadas en la metodología y en la experiencia de su implementación en Guadalajara. Esta metodología fue posible gracias a una cooperación entre el Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre Desarrollo (Cider) de la Universidad de los Andes de Colombia y el Instituto Metropolitano de Planeación y Gestión del Desarrollo de Guadalajara (IMEPLAN) de México llevada a cabo durante 2018. Se trata por tanto de una metodología basada en la construcción de conocimiento Sur-Sur y desde una perspectiva latinoamericana sobre la planificación metropolitana. Aunque esta metodología se construyó a partir de análisis conceptuales y ejercicios de planificación realizados a escala metropolitana (de aglomeración urbana), también se podría utilizar en escalas mayores de planificación (como subregional y regional).
Topic:: Development, Public Policy, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

392. How do global supply chains exacerbate gender-based violence against women in the global south?

Author:: Garcia Isabella
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: In 2018/2019 the CGPE launched an annual Gender & Global Political Economy Undergraduate Essay Prize competition, open to all undergraduate students within the School of Global Studies. The winner of the 2018/2019 competition is Isabella Garcia for the essay “How do global supply chains exacerbate gender-based violence against women in the Global South?” Isabella graduated with a BA in International Relations and Development in July and will join the MA cohort in our Global Political Economy programme for 2019/2020. Given the very strong field of submissions, the award committee further decided to award a second-place prize to Yume Tamiya for the essay “Does the rise of the middle class disguise existing inequalities in Brazil?”. Yume graduated with a BA in International Development with International Education and Development. We are delighted to publish both of these excellent essays in the CGPE Working Paper series.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Global South
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, Mexico, and Democratic Republic of Congo

393. Does the rise of the middle class disguise existing inequalities in Brazil?

Author:: Yume Tamiya
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: In 2018/2019 the CGPE launched an annual Gender & Global Political Economy Undergraduate Essay Prize competition, open to all undergraduate students within the School of Global Studies. The winner of the 2018/2019 competition is Isabella Garcia for the essay “How do global supply chains exacerbate gender-based violence against women in the Global South?” Isabella graduated with a BA in International Relations and Development in July and will join the MA cohort in our Global Political Economy programme for 2019/2020. Given the very strong field of submissions, the award committee further decided to award a second-place prize to Yume Tamiya for the essay “Does the rise of the middle class disguise existing inequalities in Brazil?”. Yume graduated with a BA in International Development with International Education and Development. We are delighted to publish both of these excellent essays in the CGPE Working Paper series.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Inequality, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

394. Amérique latine - L’année politique 2018

Author:: David Díaz Arias, Luisa Cajamarca, Maya Collombon, Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Manuel Gárate, Marie-Laure Geoffray, Damien Larrouqué, Frédéric Louault, Maria Teresa Martínez, Anaís Medeiros Passos, Kevin Parthenay, Gustavo Pastor, Carlos A. Romero, Pierre Salama, and Sebastián Urioste
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:: Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil Society, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Nationalism, Political Economy, Religion, Governance, Peacekeeping, Economy, Political Science, Regional Integration, Memory, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Venezuela, Mexico, Costa Rica, Chile, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia

395. Turmoil in South America and the Impact on Energy Markets

Author:: Lisa Viscidi
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: 2019 has been marked by widespread uprisings throughout Latin America. In the last few months, protests have erupted in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia, while Argentina elected a new leader, Bolivia’s president resigned following growing tensions with his political opponents and the military, and Peru’s leader is facing a political crisis. Largely fuelled by anger over graft, economic disparity, and the rising cost of living, the resulting social unrest has led to uncertainty over the energy sector outlook. Continued political and social turbulence will likely contribute to stagnant oil and gas production growth in these countries. Conversely, Brazil and Guyana are on track to become the region’s largest oil producers. In Brazil, pre-salt reserves have been attracting foreign investment, although further market-friendly reforms will need to be made to sustain development. Guyana, for its part, is in line to become the region’s newest petrostate and will see explosive economic growth in the coming years. Despite its large reserves, Venezuela is excluded from this study because the country’s political and economic turmoil, coupled with US sanctions, make any increase in investment highly unlikely in the short term. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, December 2019.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

396. Climate and Security in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Giovanna Kuele, and Alice Amorim
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The connections between climate change and security are complex. The interaction with other factors and the speed and type of social change vary across different contexts. Climate change rarely, if ever, causes insecurity directly; intervening variables – most of them related to governance, development and resource management – mediate this relationship. The articles in this volume explore how climate contributes to insecurity in the LAC region. They resulted from a partnership between the Igarapé Institute and the Instituto Clima e Sociedade (iCS), both in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with the support of the German Embassy in Brasília. This partnership yielded a workshop, held in July 2019, that brought together the twelve researchers and practitioners from across the region to discuss how climate and security are linked in LAC.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, International Security, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

397. Prison populism in Latin America

Author:: Carlos Vilalta and Gustavo Fondevila
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The objective of this study is to offer a data-driven review of the growth, trends, and the principle reasons behind the rapid expansion of the prison population in the region during the past two decades. A key factor appears to be the rise of prison populism. We do not provide an argument for the recent decrease in the growth rate, it is too early to determine whether the recent slow-down in prison population growth is due to a regime shift in the time series, or the effect of random variation. Still, ceteris paribus, we provide a projection of the prison population rate for the region. This Strategic Note fills a gap in the literature. Our particular contribution consists of the compilation on quantitative data of the region’s prison population, with the purpose of providing a broad but novel overview of the rapid growth and challenges to a wide audience of researchers and practitioners worldwide.
Topic:: Prisons/Penal Systems, Population, and Populism
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, Venezuela, and Mexico

398. Accountability of Google and other data-driven business models: data protection in the digital age

Author:: Maria Paula Ángel and Vivian Newman Pont
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: In this document we analyze the privacy policies of 30 companies with data-driven business models that collect data in Colombia and identify practices that have not been sufficiently contemplated by the personal data protection regime currently applicable in our country.
Topic:: Privatization, Science and Technology, Surveillance, Accountability, Private Sector, and Data
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

399. Fraught with Pain: Access to Palliative Care and Treatment for Heroin Use Disorder in Colombia

Author:: Lucía Ramírez Bolívar and Isabel Pereira
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: This books seeks to facilitate linkages between discussions on the right to health and discussions on drug policy reform. The populations we talk about here are the noes most in need of a change whereby drug culture measures cease to stand in the way of a life free from pain.
Topic:: Health, War on Drugs, and Drugs
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

400. One hundred years of State Secessions

Author:: Ricardo Torres
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:: The basic idea behind this short paper is to analyze secessionism in the last century.
Topic:: Nationalism, History, Self Determination, Woodrow Wilson, Lenin, Nation-State, and Secession
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS