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1101. The European Union's Trade Policy towards MERCOSUR

Author:
Jörg Faust
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Interregional relations between the European Union and MERCOSUR reflect a general trend of governments and firms to institutionalise their relations not only within but also across regions. As the global liberalization process within the WTO has been stagnating in recent years, transregional strategies have become attractive as next-best strategies. Against this background, the following analysis focuses on the institutional development of EU-MERCOSUR relations and the driving forces behind this development from a European perspective. This, because shedding some light on the political economy of relations between two of the most ambitious integration mechanisms of the 1990s should deepen our understanding of the forces shaping the growing importance of transregional and interregional trade relations. Rather than trying to explain the course of EU-MERCOSUR relations by one dominant hypothesis, I make an appeal for a multi-causal framework, highlighting three aspects of particular importance from a bottom up perspective. Firstly, one can observe that the interplay of economic interest groups has strongly influenced the course of interregional institutionalisation between the EU and MERCOSUR.) Secondly, political actors have not acted as mere agents of private interest but also have followed their own political agendas. Thirdly, the European Union's interregional trade strategy towards MERCOSUR has not been independent of the international context.
Topic:
International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, South America, and Latin America

1102. Financial Regulation and Supervision in Emerging Markets. The Experience of Latin America since the Tequila Crisis

Author:
Barbara Stallings and Rogerio Studart
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper deals with changes in the regulation and supervision of the Latin American financial sector in the aftermath of the 'Tequila Crisis' of 1994–95. While it finds that both have improved, regulation and supervision cannot resolve all problems; good macroeconomic policy and performance are essential complements. This is especially true because of the procyclical nature of financial activity. The paper presents both regional data for Latin America, contrasting it with other emerging markets, and four country case studies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico). The latter show how individual country characteristics and experiences affect the operation of the financial systems. We close with some policy recommendations.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

1103. Non-Financial Corporate Risk Management and Exchange Rate Volatility in Latin America

Author:
Graciela Moguillansky
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This article studies the currency risk management of multinational companies with investments in Latin American countries. The analysis is centred on episodes of currency or financial shocks, searching into the behaviour of the financial management of a firm expecting a significant devaluation. This allowed us to explore the interaction and transmission mechanisms between the microeconomic behaviour and the macroeconomic impact on the foreign exchange market. The analysis was carried out interviewing financial managers of multinational companies from different sectors with headquarters in the United Kingdom and Spain, by reviewing literature on business and currency risk management, and by analysing some surveys on financial risk management in developed countries.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, South America, Latin America, and Spain

1104. How Optimal are the Extremes? Latin American Exchange Rate Policies During the Asian Crisis

Author:
Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Guillermo Larraín
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared to Argentina and Mexico. This is linked apparently to a loss in the band's credibility, associated to policy mismanagement and an over-appreciation in the biennium before the crisis. Optimal exchange rate regimes vary across time and the conjuncture. Exit strategies are part of the election of the optimal system, including a flexible policy package rather than a single rigid policy tool.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

1105. Do Public Transfers Crowd Out Private Transfers? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico

Author:
Pedro Albarran and Orazio P. Attanasio
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper will use the data from the PROGRESA evaluation to show the extent to which such a programme crowds out private transfers. An interesting aspect of the paper is the fact that it can use the randomization (one-third of the villages in the sample were randomized in the programme for evaluation purposes).
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

1106. U.S. Policy in the Andean Region

Author:
Michael Shifter
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Even within Latin America's generally gloomy economic and political outlook, the countries of the Andean region—Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia—stand out as especially problematic and unsettled. For the United States, this set of countries, with some 120 million citizens, poses enormous policy challenges. Fostering democracy, expanding trade, combating drugs, promoting stability, and advancing social development are just some of the challenges germane to this region which, in the context of globalization, post-September 11, become even more compelling.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, Latin America, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia

1107. Understanding Colombia: History and Background

Author:
Marco Palacios
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Ever more frequently, one hears that Colombia is at the point of disintegration. This concept could be developed in several ways. Let us look at two of them. A report in TIME magazine about a territory of 40 thousand square kilometers that President Pastrana marked out as a demilitarized zone in 1998, so as to proceed with peace negotiations with the FARC, claimed that: “Colombia is in danger of being divided into three parts, along lines dictated by the nation's mountain geography. The Marxist guerrillas are ascendant in the south; the government controls central areas and large urban centers; and right-wing, army backed paramilitary forces...hold sway in much of the north.” (Latin American Edition, September 28,1998).
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1108. U.S. Interests and Options in Colombia: An Alternative Framework

Author:
Cynthia J. Arnson
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Over the last several months, and beginning most decisively in the spring of 2002, U.S. policy toward Colombia has gone through a significant shift. Traditionally defined in terms of counter-narcotics, and then expanded under Plan Colombia to include areas of democratic and economic strengthening and peace, U.S. policy is now focused squarely on security issues: improving the capacity of the Colombian government to combat left-wing guerrillas and right-wing paramilitaries; establishing an effective military presence throughout the national territory on which other state programs depend; and fighting the drug trade that finances all illegal armed groups. To illustrate the shift, consider the statements of two high- ranking U.S. officials. In August 2001, Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman told a Bogotá press conference that “we support Plan Colombia because...Plan Colombia recognizes that a negotiated settlement is the only way to achieve peace.” By March 2002, Secretary of State Colin Powell told a House subcommittee that “we have to help Colombia save its democracy from narcotraffickers and from terrorists.” The following discussion aims to understand how and why this shift came about, as well as its implications for U.S. interests and policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1109. Colombia: Prospects for Peace with the ELN

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Alvaro Uribe was inaugurated President of Colombia on 7 August 2002 with a strong electoral mandate to fulfil his pledge to enhance the state's authority and guarantee security. In his inaugural address, Uribe promised to search for a negotiated solution to the long-standing armed confrontation with both insurgent groups, the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as well as with the paramilitary United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC). However, in stark contrast to his predecessor, Andrés Pastrana, he conditioned new negotiations on a ceasefire and complete suspension of hostilities.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1110. The 10 March 2002 Parliamentary Elections in Colombia

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 10 March 2002, little more than two weeks after the end of the peace process with the insurgent Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC), Colombians elected a new House of Representatives and Senate. Despite heightened apprehension among the electorate and the government about violent interference by the guerrilla and paramilitary organisations, the polls took place in an atmosphere of relative calm and good order. In part this was due to the large-scale deployment of military and police forces across the country to guarantee voter security.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1111. The Stakes in the Presidential Election in Colombia

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This presidential election (first round on 26 May 2002; second round, if needed, on 16 June) will be crucial for the future of Colombia's democracy and its struggle against insurgents and paramilitaries, drugs and widespread poverty. Social and economic distress is now widespread. Public frustration with the ill-fated peace process of the Pastrana Administration over the past three years, its definitive rupture on 20 February 2002, and increased attacks by the main rebel group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia- Ejército del Pueblo (FARC) on civilians and infrastructure since mid-January have made “war/peace” and “violence” the key vote- determining issues. The failure to negotiate a solution to the longstanding civil war over the past three years has polarised the electorate.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1112. Colombia's Elusive Quest for Peace

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In February 2002, negotiations to end the most dangerous confrontation of Colombia's decades of civil war collapsed. Nearly four years earlier, the newly-inaugurated President Andrés Pastrana had opened talks with the country's major remaining rebel groups, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC) and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), with great enthusiasm and hope. But the fighting never ended while the talks sputtered on, and the country now appears headed for a new round of violence in its cities and against its infrastructure. The international community is concerned about the implications not only for Colombia's people and its democratic institutions, but also wider regional stability.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1113. Global Economic Prospects

Author:
Michael Mussa
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

1114. Economic Issues Raised by Treatment of Takings Under NAFTA Chapter 11

Author:
Edward M. Graham
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper examines, from an economic perspective, the treatment of takings (property rights) under NAFTA Chapter 11. To be more precise, the paper examines the treatment of takings as environmental groups fear might be established as the result of investor dispute settlement under this chapter; as of the date of this writing, most of the cases that have the potential to be precedent-setting have not been finally decided, albeit one—the Metalclad case—has been decided in a way that is unsettling to environmentalists. The author attempts to determine whether requiring public compensation of private investors for diminishment of value resulting from government regulatory action has the potential of achieving anything close to an “optimal” outcome from a societal cost-benefit point of view (defined below). This determination makes use of tools of economic analysis and, in particular, Coase's theorem regarding achieving optimal outcomes where negative externalities are present. The overall conclusion is that, although Coase's theorem can be invoked to argue that such an outcome can be achieved either via a “polluter pays” approach or a “public pays” (or “public must compensate”) approach, as a matter of practical application, the first approach is preferable to the second for a number of reasons, including government “fiscal illusion” and “moral hazard.”
Topic:
Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and North America

1115. Toward A Sustainable FTAA: Does Latin America Meet The Necessary Financial Preconditions?

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper focuses on identifying preconditions that will ensure the sustainability of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). It argues that the macro, micro, and political conditions advanced in the literature to measure a country's ability to compete internationally, while necessary, are not sufficient to ensure the success and permanence of a free trade agreement. Instead, two additional financial conditions are needed. The first is that each partner in the free trade area needs to have sustainable public debts as determined by the achievement of credible and sustainable structural fiscal balances. The second is that exchange rate regimes across trading partners should be compatible in the sense that adverse shocks in one country do not generate a policy dilemma in other partners between abandoning their exchange rate system or the free trade area.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

1116. Access To Information: A Key To Democracy

Author:
Laura Newman
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Citizens and their leaders around the world have long recognized the risk of corruption. Corruption diverts scarce resources from necessary public services, and instead puts it in the pockets of politicians, middlemen and illicit contractors, while ensuring that the poor do not receive the benefits of this "system". The consequences of corruption globally have been clear: unequal access to public services and justice, reduced investor confidence, continued poverty, and even violence and overthrow of governments. A high level of corruption is a singularly pernicious societal problem that also undermines the rule of law and citizen confidence in democratic institutions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

1117. Paramilitarism, Death Squads, and Government in Latin America

Author:
Adam Jones
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This paper, the first of a planned two-part analysis, examines the institutions of paramilitarism, death squads, and warlords in Latin America, with a focus on the case-studies of Mexico and Peru. It begins with an overview of the small comparative literature on paramilitary movements and death squads around the world, seeking to define and clarify the terminology. The literature on "warlordism" is then reviewed, and the similarities and distinctions between paramilitaries and warlords are considered. Lastly, I examine two case -studies that have not, as yet, received extended attention in the comparative literature: Mexico and Colombia. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and charting a course for future investigations. (PDF, Spanish, 40 pages, 2.76 MB)   Â
Topic:
Civil Society and Human Rights
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Peru

1118. Bicameralismo en América Latina

Author:
Jorge Schiavon
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
More than half of the countries in Latin America have bicameral legislatures, and the vast majority of the larger countries in the region have dual legislative bodies. This paper explores whether bicameralism is an important institutional variable in the functioning of Latin American systems. It develops a typology of the different types of bycameralism in the region based on several specific characteristics that differentiate between them, and discusses the relevance of the institutional configuration of the system and the party configuration of the chambers for bicameralism. Then, it constructs a veto gates and players model in order to analyze the causal mechanism through which bicameralism impacts Latin America systems. Finally, it presents two examples (one with variation in time, the other with variation in space) to support the argument that bicameralism matters depending on its type, the institutional configuration, and party composition of the system.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Latin America

1119. Ámbito y Papel de los Especialistas en las Reformas en los Sistemas de Salud: Los Casos de Brasil y México

Author:
Raquel Abrantes Pêgo and Célia Almeida
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to consider the role played by the community of public health experts in the contemporary health sector reform process. It discusses the issue based on the case of Brazil and Mexico, because, as specialists, public health researchers in both countries have directed their participation to influencing the conflict over the reorientation of health policy in their respective countries. One of their approaches has consisted in developing a new cognitive framework that underpins technical health sector reform projects understood as policy proposals with technical content. Our purpose is to show that these experts manage to influence the national debate over health sector reform when the technical and scientific discussion leaves the academic sphere and goes to the realm of social and political debate. In our opinion, this occurs because this technical and scientific knowledge has been held out, independently of its intrinsic value, as a political and ideological alternative platform for sustaining a health sector reform proposal which, once transformed into a policy project, has served to aggregate certain political and social forces and not others. The study sets out each case separately, in each showing first the emergence of a new body of thinking in the field of public health (Collective Health in Brazil and New Public Health in Mexico). It then demonstrates how these groups of experts have articulated and interacted with specific political and social forces within their respective societies, and analyses how they have become a political stream within health institutions in the struggle to control the sector's future.
Topic:
Development and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, Latin America, Central America, North America, and Mexico

1120. Contradiction Without Paradox: Evangelical Political Culture in the 1998 Venezuelan Elections

Author:
David Smilde
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Venezuelan Evangelicals' responses to candidates in that country's 1998 presidential election seem to confirm the view that their political culture is inconsistent, contradictory, and paradoxical. Not only were Evangelicals just as likely as the larger population to support nationalist former coup leader Hugo Chávez, they rejected Venezuela's one Evangelical party after it made a clientalist pact with the infamous social democratic party candidate. In this article, concepts from recent cultural theory are used to examine qualitative data from these two voting behaviors. Ways to make sense of the contradictory nature of Evangelical political culture are suggested.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

1121. The Labor Movement in Democratic Chile, 1990-2000

Author:
Frank K. Volker
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This article examines the experience of the Chilean labor movement during the first decade of democracy. In so doing, it calls attention to the need for further study of how institutional variables, such as labor legislations, influence labor movement strategies across different political regimes (authoritarian and democratic). Evidence from the Chilean case demonstrates that while important, exogenous variables such as new democratic governments and new labor legislations have only limited explanatory power with regard to labor movement strategies. This warrants a closer look at internal organizational aspects.
Topic:
Globalization, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Chile

1122. Experimentos de Democracia Interna: Las Primarias de Partidos en América Latina

Author:
Manuel Alcántara Sáez
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper describes the evolution of candidate selection processes in Latin American political parties up to the year 2000. The topic is part of the field of political party studies in the region. The first section diagnoses the problems affecting the data bases produced by the Latinobarometro and the Parliamentary Elites Survey of the Universidad de Salamanca. The second section describes the process indicated in the title of the present piece.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Central America

1123. Venezuela: Popular Sovereignty versus Liberal Democracy

Author:
Michael Coppedge
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In order to evaluate accurately the state of democratic governance during the first years of the Chávez presidency, one must sharpen the distinction between democracy narrowly defined as popular sovereignty versus the more conventional notion of liberal democracy. Venezuela was no longer a liberal democracy in every respect. Instead, it became an extreme case of delegative democracy. The president enjoyed widespread popular support for almost everything he and his followers did, and this fact qualified his government as "democratic" in the narrow sense of popular sovereignty. But the systematic elimination of constraints on presidential action after 1998 increased the risk that Venezuela would cease to be a democracy by any definition in the future.
Topic:
Civil Society and Government
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

1124. From "Restricted"; to "Besieged": The Changing Nature of the Limits to Democracy in Colombia

Author:
Ana Maria Bejarano and Eduardo Pizarro Leongómez
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
During the last decade and a half, Colombia has witnessed both an improvement in the dimensions of democratic participation and contestation and a severe deterioration in those dimensions of democracy related to effective protection of civil liberties and subordination of the military. While the term “semi-democracy” seems most appropriate to classify the Colombian political regime, the restrictions that made the Colombian regime semi-democratic during the second half of the twentieth century have changed in nature. Between 1958 and 1986, restrictions were placed on the competitive dimension of democracy. From the mid-1980s onward, the regime's shortcomings stem from the weakness of the state, the emergence of powerful armed actors, and the absence of the rule of law.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1125. La Atomización Partidista en Colombia: el Fenómeno de las Micro-empresas Electorales

Author:
Eduardo Pizarro Leongómez
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Colombian Liberal-Conservative bipartyism appeared up until just a decade ago not only as one of the oldest but also as one of the most institutionalized party systems in Latin America. Today, even though a complete party collapse similar to those ocurred in Peru and Venezuela did not take place, the erosion of both parties has followed a path with few historical precedents: an extreme "personalist factionalism" (Giovanni Sartori) or, to use a more coloquial term that has become popular in Colombia, the implosion of parties in tens and tens of electoral micro-businesses.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, Latin America, Venezuela, and Peru

1126. Fujimori's Financiers: How Japan Became the Largest Aid Donor in Latin America and Its Implications for Future Economic Development

Author:
Michael G. Donovan and Kwan S. Kim
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the historical development of Japan's economic relationship with Latin America and describes trends observed in the short and medium term. The main types of relations examined are trade, direct foreign investment, and official development assistance. Emphasis is placed on how Japan's postwar economic development is mirrored in its changing relationship with Latin America. The importance of relationships for both Japan and the United States is discussed, as are competing broad theoretical hypotheses about the nature and evolution of these relationships. The concluding section explores the impact of the Asian economic crisis on Latin America and assesses the feasibility of free trade agreements between Japan and certain Latin American nations.
Topic:
Development and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, South America, and Latin America

1127. Responding to Terrorism: What Role for the United Nations?

Author:
William G. O'Neill
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The International Peace Academy held a conference on “Responding to Terrorism: What Role for the United Nations?” on Oct. 25-26, 2002 in New York. In addition to the focus on possible UN initiatives, the conference specifically sought the insights and recommendations of experts from Latin America, Africa and Asia, parts of the world that have suffered greatly from terrorism but whose views and prescriptions are often overlooked or omitted from the debate.
Topic:
Terrorism and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, New York, Asia, and Latin America

1128. Lessons Learned: Peacebuilding in Haiti

Author:
Lotta Hagman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Peacebuilding is not merely a technical exercise — it is highly political. In a combustible political atmosphere as in Haiti, effective peacebuilding requires careful and sustained management. The importance of a long-term approach cannot be overestimated. In Haiti, the international community was successful in restoring the constitutional government, improving the respect for basic human rights, and initiating economic development. However, for these efforts to take hold and lead to a self-sustaining democratic process, continuous international engagement in Haiti is vital. From this perspective, the cutback in the UN involvement in February 2001 was premature.
Topic:
Civil Society, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and Haiti

1129. Achievements in Building and Maintaining the Rule of Law:MSI's Studies in LAC, E, AFR, and ANE

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
Over the past two decades the Latin America and Caribbean region (LAC) has undergone a major political transformation. All countries in the region now have elected civilian governments, with the sole exception of Cuba. With this political opening have come economic liberalization and increased opportunities for citizen participation. The region has moved beyond the formality of elections and is now confronting the more difficult challenge of reforming its other political, economic, and legal institutions.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Diplomacy, and International Law
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

1130. Defense White Papers in the Americas: A Comparative Analysis

Author:
John Cope and Laurita Denny
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In preparation for the October 2000 Defense Ministerial of the Americas (DMA) in Manaus Brazil and at the request of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) studied the global trend toward the creation of Defense White Papers. The study aimed to understand the nature of these documents in order to prepare the U.S. delegation to discuss the tendency in Latin America and the Caribbean during the DMA. The INSS study team found no agreement about what constitutes a 'white paper' other than each is a consensus statement on a topic. The team examined 15 defense documents worldwide and interviewed participants in the development process and independent analysts. The results suggest that the formative, often difficult, process through which governments must move to solidify their approach to national security defense policy, and the structure to implement it and build consensus for it is the essential part of a 'white paper,' providing a constructive experience that benefits the country. Governments tended not to want a template for this process, although at the working level there is some interest in the experience of other states. Defense White Papers become highly stylized nationalistic documents that reflect a state's unique domestic circumstances and international geopolitical situation. The attached chart provides an overview comparison of the Defense White Paper processes of Canada, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and South Africa. Past efforts by U.S. agencies to design templates have failed.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Caribbean, and Chile

1131. Colombia's War: Toward a New Strategy

Author:
John A. Cope
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Colombia's new president, Alvaro Uribe, is confronting a protracted internal war and moving to assert national political authority. Hopes are being pinned on Uribe, the new “law and order” president who took office on August 7, 2002, with an overwhelming mandate to end violence, narcotics, and official corruption.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, and Latin America

1132. Social Insurance Regimes: crises and 'reform' in the Argentine and Brazil, since c. 1900

Author:
Colin Lewis and Peter Lloyd-Sherlock
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The paper examines the structural and organisational problems of social insurance systems in Brazil and the Argentine in order to illuminate current debates about pension 'reform'. Much of the present discussion depicts social insurance 'crisis' as a modern phenomenon. Similarly, preoccupations about the macroeconomic objectives of reform - profitable pension funds as an adjunct to capital market deepening, about sustainability - the financial viability of systems, and about equity and coverage, are often assumed to be peculiar to the late twentieth century. The papers stresses the generational (or cyclical) nature of crises that have plagued social insurance regimes in both countries. It also identifies what may be learnt from differences, as well as similarities, between the two systems - not least the relatively larger historic role the private sector and earlier substantive provision for rural workers in Brazil. Following an appraisal of different 'models' (individual 'capitalised' accounts versus pay-as-you-go schemes and monopolistic state systems versus pluralistic/competitive arrangements), the paper concludes with an evaluation of the administrative and financial stability of current schemes.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, South America, and Latin America

1133. The Argentine Implosion

Author:
Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In December 2001, Argentina recorded the world's largest default ever, as it failed to honor payments on its US$132 billion foreign debt. Since then, five presidents have been in power, the Argentine peso has been devalued by 120 percent, and the banking system has virtually collapsed, dragging the economy into a depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2002. Argentina's per capita income has become one of the worst in Latin America, and, as a result, more than one-third of its people live under the poverty line. 1 Argentines' confidence in their elected officials has disappeared. By most accounts, the country has literally imploded to a degree that has no precedent in Latin America's contemporary history. This is particularly bewildering, considering that only 10 years ago Argentina was hailed around the world as a model of successful economic reforms, with standards of living that were not only the highest in the region but comparable to those of some southern European countries. How could Argentina go from role model to international outcast so quickly? Some place the blame on external shocks created by the financial crises in Mexico (1995), Indonesia (1997), Thailand (1998), and Russia (1998). Others say the cause of the problem was misguided policy advice from the International Monetary Fund (Stiglitz 2002). Yet, most analyses ascribe much of the trouble to the Convertibility Law's fixed exchange rate policy adopted in 1991.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Thailand

1134. The New Cuban Immigration in Context

Author:
Max J Castro
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Cuban migration to the United States predates Fidel Castro's revolution by more than a century. As historian Félix Masud-Piloto writes, “The Cuban presence in Florida dates back to the 1830s when Cuban cigar manufacturers, trying to avoid high U.S. tariffs, relocated their operations in Key West.” 1 The wars of independence brought a substantial cohort of exiles. In the 1880s, the Cuban community of Key West would spawn a second Cuban immigrant community based on tobacco manufacture: Ybor City in Tampa, Florida. New York City, Philadelphia, and New Orleans also had significant Cuban emigré populations in the late nineteenth century.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, New York, Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and Florida

1135. Colombia's Conflicts: The Spillover Effects of a Wider War

Author:
Richard Millet
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In today's global village, there is no such thing as a purely national crisis. Every conflict has spillover effects, ranging from trade disruptions to refugee flows to violent clashes. In the past, it was common for nations to believe that promoting conflict in neighboring states could somehow enhance their security, but in the twenty-first century it has become increasingly obvious that conflicts in one nation constitute a security threat to all who share common borders. Today, it is more often the weakness rather than the strength of states that threatens to disrupt the search for peace and stability.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1136. The Dominican Republic's 2000 Presidential Election: The U.S. Role in Supporting the Process

Author:
Kevin Michael O'Reilly
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Dominicans elected Rafael Hipólito Mejía Domínguez their president on May 16, 2000. He took office on August 16, 2000. Mejía, the candidate of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Dominicano — PRD), won 1,593,231 votes or 49.87 percent of the ballots cast in an essentially three-way race with Danilo Medina of the Party of Dominican Liberation (Partido de la Liberación Dominicana — PLD) and former President Joaquín Balaguer of the Social Christian Reformist Party (Partido Reformista Social Cristiano — PRSC). Medina won 24.94 percent of the vote (796,923) to finish second, with Balaguer only fractions of a percentage point behind, at 24.60 percent (785,926). Turnout, at just over 76 percent, was high by historical standards. Although two shooting deaths marred the campaign's closing days, relatively little violence accompanied the voting compared to previous Dominican elections. Since 1994, Dominican electoral law had called for a runoff between the top two vote winners if no candidate passed the 50-percent-plus-one mark, but Medina conceded on May 17, after Balaguer acknowledged that he could not deliver the entire PRSC vote to the PLD in a second round of voting. Balaguer announced, “For the good of the country, we waive our right to participate in a second round.” The country's Central Electoral Board (Junta Central Electoral — JCE) certified Mejía's victory on May 18, 2000.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

1137. The U.S. Engagement with Colombia: Legitimate State Authority and Human Rights

Author:
Gabriel Marcella
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
September 11, 2001, reshaped international relations and had a profound impact on the strategic equation in Colombia. The challenge of what U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called “draining the swamp” of terrorism with global links resonated deeply in Bogotá and among the insurgent forces: the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia — FARC), the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional — ELN), and the paramilitaries, among them, the United Self- defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia — AUC). Though these groups already appeared on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist organizations, as of 9/11 they formed part of a broader international threat assessment. Two weeks into 2002, an ill-conceived “peace process,” initiated by President Andrés Pastrana with the FARC in 1999, was r esuscitated at the last minute before an impending military offensive by the government against the FARC was started. President Pastrana, “risking all for peace,” had extended himself, his negotiators, and his government's credibility as far as he could for three years — with nothing to show for such extensive efforts other than his administration's and the Colombian citizens' frustration and virtual surrender to the FARC of national sovereignty over a demilitarized zone ( despeje ) the size of Switzerland, located in San Vicente del Caguán, an area south of Bogotá.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

1138. Protecting the Environment While Opening Markets in the Americas

Author:
William Krist
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
Market Access Negotiations are a major element of the efforts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by 2020. If successful, these negotiations will remove all tariff and nontariff barriers to trade among the 34 participating countries on all nonagricultural products, including forest and mining products, fish, and manufactured goods.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

1139. The Dominican Diaspora Revisited: Dominicans and Dominican-Americans in a New Century

Author:
Max J. Castro and Thomas D. Boswell
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
The economy has been growing rapidly in recent years. Democracy is increasingly consolidated. The rate of birth has dropped significantly, and the level of education has risen.
Topic:
Human Rights and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Caribbean

1140. The Effectiveness of Special Interventions in Latin American Public Primary Schools

Author:
Joan B. Anderson
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In pursuit of improved quality and more equity in education, public primary schools in Latin America have utilized several compensatory educational policies that include special interventions such as food aid programs, distribution of free textbooks, classroom libraries, in-service teacher training, extra classes and extra school sessions, tutors and mentors, and scholarships. Using data on children and schools in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, this paper presents the results of cross-country, empirical estimates of the effects of these interventions on language and math achievement and on the likelihood of promotion, both at the school level and at the level of individual children. Language and math achievement was measured by scores on UNESCO-developed language and math examinations administered to each of the 2,048 children in the sample. In addition, the paper addresses whether a particular intervention is equally effective in poor and non-poor environments and whether these compensatory interventions in fact target those who need them most. Empirical findings suggest that the most effective programs are classroom libraries, distribution of textbooks, distribution of food, and teacher training. For programs to be compensatory, the research indicates that better targeting of scarce resources toward low-income schools and children is needed
Topic:
Development, Education, and Government
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile

1141. Argentina — Beleaguered Banks

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the impact of the economic crisis on the Argentine banking sector. The collapse of the peso-dollar peg dealt a serious blow to the already weakened Argentine banking system, which now faces a significant restructuring process.
Topic:
International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

1142. The Epidemiology of Microeconomic Expectations

Author:
Christopher D. Carroll
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936), macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet in recent decades macroeconomists have devoted almost no effort to modeling actual empirical expectations data, instead assuming all agents' expectations are 'rational.' This paper takes up the challenge of modeling empirical household expectations data, and shows that a simple, standard model from epidemiology does a remarkably good job of explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the 'rational expectations' benchmark. Furthermore, a microfoundations or 'agent-based' version of the model may be able to explain, in a way that still permits aggregation, stark rejections of the pure rational expectations framework like Souleles's (2002) finding that members of different demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

1143. Complementarity and Social Networks

Author:
Yann Bramoulle
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
I investigate complementarity games played on graphs, which model negative externalities embedded in structures of interaction. On the complete graph, the traditional economic analysis applies: the number of agents playing one strategy is proportional to its payoff. I show that, in general and contrary to coordination games, the structure crucially influences the equilibria. On an important class of graphs, called bipartite graphs, the equilibria do not depend on strategies' payoffs. On certain highly asymmetric graphs, an increase in the payoff of a strategy even decreases the number of agents playing this strategy. In most cases, equilibria do not maximize welfare.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

1144. Open Doors

Author:
Paul Masson, Michael Pomerleano, and Robert E Litan
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Foreign direct investment in financial firms in emerging markets surged in the 1990s, although not equally in all places. The main beneficiaries: Latin America and Central Europe, with Asia a distant third. This conference report summarizes findings on the impacts—mainly positive—of this significant inflow of funds and managerial and technical know-how, as well as recommendations for policies toward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the future. The main recommendation: countries with restrictions generally should relax them, even when their own financial systems are weak. At the same time, foreign entry gives rise to new policy challenges, supervisory and competitive, which emerging markets need to confront both unilaterally and with cooperation from source country governments.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe

1145. Report from Havana: Time for a Reality Check on U.S. Policy toward Cuba

Author:
Jonathan G. Clarke and William Ratliff
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Official U.S. and Cuban depictions of the effects of the U.S. embargo differ notably from Cuban economic reality. This report, based on the authors' recent visits to Havana and interviews with top Cuban officials, dissidents, and other private citizens, shows that the embargo is not responsible for Cuba's poor economic condition—as Havana claims—nor has it been effective at achieving Washington's goal of isolating the Cuban regime.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean, and Havana

1146. Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn From Financial Indicators

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The rating agencies' and bank supervisors' records of prompt identification of banking problems in emerging markets has not been satisfactory. This paper suggests that such deficiencies could be explained by the use of financial indicators that, while appropriate for industrial countries, do not work in emerging markets. Among the conclusions, this paper shows that the most commonly used indicator of banking problems in industrial countries, the capital-to-asset ratio, has performed poorly as an indicator of banking problems in Latin America and East Asia. This is because of (a) severe deficiencies in the accounting and regulatory framework and (b) lack of liquid markets for bank shares, subordinated debt and other bank liabilities and assets needed to validate the “real” worth of a bank as opposed to its accounting value.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Latin America

1147. Observing the 2002 Mexico Elections

Author:
Marcela Szymanski
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center has a long history of engagement with Mexico with the shared goal of improving the electoral system in that country. In the early 1990s, the Center helped national observer groups to form and sent international observers to assist in domestic election monitoring. It also invited Mexicans to observe the U.S. elections in 1992. In 1994, the Center was among the first international observers to monitor elections in Mexico, and its observations helped shape electoral reforms that framed those and the 1997 elections, which the Center also observed.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

1148. Observing Political Change in Venezuela: The Bolivarian Constitution and 2000 Elections

Author:
Laura Neuman and Jennifer McCoy
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Venezuela under President Hugo Chávez undertook a bold experiment to revamp its political system and address economic inequities and poverty. The country held seven votes in two years as voters chose Hugo Chávez to lead them in December 1998 and then supported his radical reform program, beginning with a new constitution. A Constitutional Assembly was elected in July 1999 to draft a new constitution, which voters approved in December 1999. Every elected position in the country was then presented to the voters again in a two-stage election in July and December 2000. While we do not believe that the election irregularities would have changed the 2000 presidential results, the significant politicization of the elections and organizational deficiencies contributed to a lack of confidence in the process and the nonpresidential results, thus leading us to characterize the July 2000 elections as flawed.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

1149. The Bush Administration and the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Peter Trubowitz
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This paper, the first of a planned two-part analysis, examines the institutions of paramilitarism, death squads, and warlords in Latin America, with a focus on the case-studies of Mexico and Peru. It begins with an overview of the small comparative literature on paramilitary movements and death squads around the world, seeking to define and clarify the terminology. The literature on "warlordism" is then reviewed, and the similarities and distinctions between paramilitaries and warlords are considered. Lastly, I examine two case-studies that have not, as yet, received extended attention in the comparative literature: Mexico and Colombia. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and charting a course for future investigations.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico

1150. Nongovernmental Terrorism in Latin America: Re-examining Old Assumptions

Author:
Andreas Feldmann and Maiju Perälä
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
For years nongovernmental terrorism in Latin America was considered to be an epiphenomenon of the Cold War, and consequently explained in terms of that war. The persistence of terrorism throughout the region in the 1990s not only has indicated that many of our assumptions concerning the causes of terrorism were misleading, but also has lead scholars to reexamine the phenomenon of nongovernmental political violence. This paper investigates the validity of a number of hypotheses recently explored in the literature by applying a pooled time series cross section regression analysis to data from seventeen Latin American countries between 1980 and 1995. Findings indicate that nongovernmental terrorist acts in Latin America are more likely to occur in countries characterized by widespread state human rights violations. Likewise, evidence is found that nongovernmental terrorism in the region tends to be more prevalent in countries characterized by electoral and associational liberties than by restrictive dictatorships. Association between economic performance or structural economic conditions and the incidence of terrorism is not substantiated by the findings.
Topic:
Cold War, Democratization, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America