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2. Emerging Powers and the Future of American Statecraft
- Author:
- Christopher S. Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The structure of international politics is changing in ways that are not fully appreciated in Washington. The United States has paid a great deal of attention to the rise of China in the last decade but much less to emerging powers whose rise will also shape the operating environment for American statecraft. No single emerging power will have an impact tantamount to China’s, but they will have a significant impact collectively due to their geopolitical weight and diplomatic aspirations. America has limited ability to influence the trajectory of these emerging powers, identified in this report as Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye. They have taken stances that contrast or directly clash with U.S. positions on China and on Russia over the past few years. Nearly all have voiced concerns about Washington’s approach to the war in Ukraine, even as they criticized Moscow’s invasion. Almost none would line up with the United States in a confrontation with China. Instead, they are likely to pursue highly self-interested foreign policies. Washington should expect that they will increasingly challenge some of its policies, sustain relationships with its adversaries, and press their own agendas on the global stage. The emerging powers’ statecrafts are shaped in large part by their drive for economic security. But their geographies, different preferences for world order, domestic politics, and defense relationships also play a role. Concerns about the strength of democracy in other countries, which has played an animating role in U.S. foreign policy for decades, are a lower priority for them, no matter how democratic they are. It will be a mistake for the United States to frame its relations with these emerging powers primarily as part of a competition for influence with China and Russia, however tempting it may be to do so. These powers are not swing states that will tilt decisively toward either side in a global great power competition. Most will resist any efforts to bring them into a U.S.-led camp as in the Cold War. Trying to make them do so would also risk strategic overreach by embroiling the United States too deeply in the emerging powers’ domestic politics or by expending its resources in pursuit of building ties that never materialize. A better approach for the United States would be to focus on negotiating interest-based deals with emerging powers while cordoning off areas of disagreement. These might include tailored market access and investment agreements, agreements on technology manufacturing, energy transition initiatives, efforts to combat deforestation, efforts to build public health infrastructure, and infrastructure investments. It would be wasteful of the United States to offer these countries security guarantees, but in some cases providing security assistance can serve its interests. Washington should accept that most of these countries will maintain close diplomatic, economic, and sometimes security relationships with China and probably Russia. Over the longer term, it will serve U.S. interests to strengthen the sovereignty of emerging powers when possible and cost-effective to do so. This will provide a bulwark against the undue expansion of China’s power and influence and help ensure that, even if they do not side with the United States, they are not drawn closely into the orbit of its major geopolitical competitors. Strengthening emerging powers’ sovereignty will also help boost their development as constructive powers with a stake in sustaining a peaceful world order conducive to global economic growth.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Powers
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America
3. Crossing the Storm: EZLN Marks 30 Years with a 120-year Plan
- Author:
- Ann Louise Deslandes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Zapatista liberation movement gathered in Chiapas to honor three decades of struggle and prepare for an uncertain future.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Political Movements, Post-Colonial, and Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN)
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
4. Latin America’s New Right Wings: Shifting Ideologies, Transnational Ties
- Author:
- Ernesto Bohoslavsky and Magdalena Broquetas
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- New far-right forces pose a growing threat to democracy across Latin America and the Caribbean. Read more in the Spring 2024 issue of the NACLA Report on the Americas.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Democracy, Violence, Far Right, Right-Wing Politics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
5. Honduras: A Narco-State Made in the United States
- Author:
- Laura Blume
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Although Juan Orlando Hernández was convicted of drug trafficking in a New York court, the United States has yet to own up to its role in fostering state-sponsored drug trafficking in Honduras.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Coup, Organized Crime, Drug Trafficking, and Narco-State
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America
6. Viva Palestina! NYC Student Encampments Spark National Rebellion
- Author:
- Mariana Navarrete Villegas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Latinx students are standing with Palestine. For them, the occupation and oppression of Palestine are inseparable from the U.S.- and Israel-backed militarization of Latin America.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Occupation, Protests, Political Movements, Students, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- New York, Palestine, Gaza, Latin America, North America, and United States of America
7. “Oil for the Few” at Brazil's Export Ports
- Author:
- César Rodríguez Garavito
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- For a small farmer in Rio de Janeiro state, a private port catering to the fossil fuel industry has brought a decade-long struggle to remain on the land.
- Topic:
- Oil, Exports, Fossil Fuels, Port, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and Rio de Janeiro
8. A Strategic Cross-Border Labor Alliance
- Author:
- David Bacon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A relationship between a U.S. and a Mexican union, forged in the face of NAFTA, has borne fruit over decades of struggle. Two leaders reflect on the importance of international solidarity.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Solidarity, Alliance, NAFTA, and Unions
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
9. Is Hugo Chávez to Blame for Venezuela’s Collapse?
- Author:
- Gabriel Hetland
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The country’s current economic and democratic crisis should not be used to erase Chávez’s impressive accomplishments in working to build 21st-century socialism.
- Topic:
- Socialism, Economic Crisis, Hugo Chavez, and Democratic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
10. Dominican Republic’s Neofascist Paramilitaries Double Down on Right-Wing Repression
- Author:
- Amarilys Estrella
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- New expressions of ultranationalist violence censoring Black women and migrants harken back to the Trujillo dictatorship. Anyone deemed a threat to Dominican values is a potential target.
- Topic:
- Migration, Race, Violence, Radical Right, Paramilitary, Neofascism, and Ultranationalism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Dominican Republic
11. When the Earth Loses its Stewards
- Author:
- Alexia Gardner and Alex Reep
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- More than 1 million Colombians have been forced to flee their territories since the 2016 peace accords. As extractive industries and armed groups capitalize on displacement, biodiversity suffers.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Armed Forces, Displacement, Biodiversity, and Extractive Industries
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
12. Domestic regimes and national preferences as factors of regionalism’s crisis. The case of Guatemala’s regional integration policy
- Author:
- Francisco Santos-Carillo and Luis Andrés Padilla Vassaux
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The article analyzes the influence of internal factors in the Central American integration crisis, based on Guatemalan politics and from a liberal intergovernmental approach. The results confirm the relationship between national preferences, some alignment with the preferences of partner states, and the results and effects of the process. For Guatemala, integration is an ideational commitment conditioned by the absence of negative externalities for the interests of governments and other key actors. National preferences limited the scope and determined the institutional design. The identity commitment and the creation of regional institutions seem to be insufficient for integration.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Regional Integration, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and Guatemala
13. Regionalism and the Agenda 2030: Inequality and Decent Work in Mexico
- Author:
- Karina Lilia Pasquariello Mariano, Roberto Goulart Menezes, and Marcela Franzoni
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The present study analyzes the limits of regionalism in achieving SDG 8, with a focus on the Mexican reality. It is based on the hypothesis that the role of the national government is decisive for incorporation of the Agenda 2030 in cases of regionalism based on an intergovernmental dynamic. We argue that NAFTA had a limited impact on improving working conditions in Mexico, as it only affected export-oriented regions and sectors. Since 2019 there has been an increase in the minimum wage, which can be explained not only by enforcing the USMCA, but also by a compatibility between internal and external agendas. Therefore, the case of Mexico allows us to affirm that the national government was decisive for the incorporation of the Agenda 2030 in the context of intergovernmental agreements.
- Topic:
- Inequality, NAFTA, Regionalism, Work, and Agenda 2030
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
14. Regionalism Beyond Land Borders: Strengthening regional integration in Latin America and the Caribbean through blue economy policies
- Author:
- Thauan Santos and Charles S. Colgan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to highlight the key role of the blue economy in fostering regional integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) based on the 2030 Agenda. By proposing a “beyond the boxes” approach, SDG 14 is not the only driver that stands out. Hence, we propose a regionalism beyond the state-centric and land borders, which will require reflecting on and rethinking theories, policies, and practices related to the foundations of regional integration, IR, and the 2030 Agenda itself. The methodology combines UN reports and data from ECLAC, WRI, FAO, UNEP-WCMC, UNESCOMAB, WWF, UN-DESA, and NOAA.
- Topic:
- Environment, Regional Integration, Oceans and Seas, Regionalism, and Blue Economy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
15. Bottom-up regionality and the Sustainable Development Goals: civil society organizations shaping 2030 Agenda implementation in Latin America
- Author:
- Thiago Gehre Galvão, Mairon G. Bastos Lima, and Rodrigo Ramiro
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Civil society organizations (CSOs) are shaping the formation of a bottom-up regionality in the context of the 2030 Agenda implementation. Using the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region as a case, this article unravels the pivotal role they play in the diffusion and incorporation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Drawing from qualitative content analysis of official documents, critical discourse analysis of primary and secondary sources, and semi-structured interviews, we understand CSOs as institutional entrepreneurs with specific motivations to engage and influence the regional governance process. While many challenges persist, civil society organizations are shaping 2030 Agenda implementation in LAC.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Sustainable Development Goals, Regionalism, and Agenda 2030
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
16. US Hegemony in Latin America: Think Tanks and the Formation of Consensus about the Chinese Presence
- Author:
- Luciana Wietchikoski and Livia Peres Milani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, U.S. government agencies have defined the Chinese presence in Latin America as a challenge, which has organized foreign policy towards the region. Departing from a neo-Gramscian approach, this paper investigates the bibliographical production of U.S. think tanks and seeks to understand the construction of consensus about the Chinese presence in Latin America. The methodology is based on content analysis and we identified two main narratives: in the first, the Chinese presence is presented as a threat to U.S. regional hegemony; in the second, the Chinese adaptation to liberal precepts is sought. There are therefore nuances in how the Chinese power is perceived, although the discourses remain restricted to the promotion of capitalism and neoliberalism under U.S. leadership.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Think Tanks
- Political Geography:
- China, Latin America, North America, and United States of America
17. Regional Governance in Latin America: The More the Merrier?
- Author:
- Cristiane Lucena Carneiro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Latin America regional governance is characterized by institutional complexity, largely the consequence of overlapping membership and mandates. The dominant view that overlap in Latin American regional organizations is problematic warrants further investigation. This article explores instances of overlap and parallelism within Latin American regional governance institutions to argue that growing complexity may be associated with normative progress. The article offers a portrait of overlapping regionalism based on data from the Regional Organizations Competencies Dataset (ROCO). The analysis confirms: institutional overlap has increased since 1945; it identifies the critical junctures that catapulted this process which is loosely associated with normative progress.
- Topic:
- Governance, Institutions, International Order, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
18. Redefining US strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era
- Author:
- Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Matthew Kroenig
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) lies in strengthening their western hemisphere partnership. Shared borders, economic interests, and security alliances bind these nations, along with a common goal for prosperity. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership. In May 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security established the US-LAC Future Strategy Working Group to redefine the US-LAC partnership. This strategy promotes mutual and inclusive economic growth, renewed cooperation through enhanced commercial and investment ties, a renewed paradigm on bolstering security and reducing migration flows across the region, and a focus on preparedness in the face of natural disasters and the energy transition. Acting on this strategy could significantly benefit US economic and security interests. The United States should capitalize on immediate opportunities, like promoting nearshoring as a means to growth and prosperity across the Americas, while maintaining a medium-term strategy tailored to each country’s specific needs. This strategy paper highlights the importance of adaptability and practicality, particularly as the global economic landscape evolves and power shifts foresee new leading economies by mid-century. In addition, the strategy advocates for the significance of the US-LAC relationship amid the recalibration of US worldwide interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America
19. Not without her: A roadmap for gender equality and Caribbean prosperity
- Author:
- Wazim Mowla and Valentina Sader
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Caribbean is one of the most vulnerable regions globally. It harbors economies that are open-faced and import-dependent, making it susceptible to the ravages of climate change, fluctuating commodity prices, and inflationary pressures. While governments and financial institutions grapple with these perpetual stresses, it is the Caribbean citizens, particularly women and girls, who bear the heaviest burden. Nestled in this uniquely vulnerable region, women and girls face a multitude of challenges, demanding comprehensive support from both governments and financial institutions to enhance their resilience and opportunities throughout society. Their integration across various sectors, including government, business, and local organizations, emphasizes that addressing gender challenges cannot occur in isolation. The global issues looming over the Caribbean magnify the specific hurdles confronting women and girls. From gender-based violence (GBV) and economic barriers to limited political influence and the disproportionate impacts of climate change, the challenges intertwine, creating a crisis of gender inequality and inequity across the Caribbean. This publication compiles findings from a yearlong consultative effort, revealing that the challenges faced by women and girls are rooted in societal perceptions of their roles and restricted access to tools and resources. To overcome these barriers, a fundamental reshaping of social norms, alongside political and financial institutions, is imperative. Moreover, integrating women and girls into the development model aligns with the region’s broader ambitions of achieving UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), unlocking untapped human capital and fostering long-term prosperity. In collaboration with the UN Women Caribbean Multi-Country Office, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and its Caribbean Initiative embarked on a year-long partnership. This initiative aimed to address GBV, economic empowerment challenges, limited political influence, and the disproportionate effects of climate change facing women and girls in the Caribbean. The extensive consultative process involved roundtable discussions, capacity-building sessions, and one-on-one consultations, shedding light on the preconceptions held by both men and women toward women and girls in Jamaica and Guyana during 2023. The partnership has honed in on social norms as a focal point, recognizing their impact on perceptions and discussions about the challenges faced by women and girls.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Women, Inequality, Economy, Resilience, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
20. With the 2024 Mexican election looming, here are two major recommendations for the next president
- Author:
- Ignacia Ulloa Peters, Martin Cassinelli, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Charlene Aguilera
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Countries representing half the world’s population are voting in 2024. On June 2, just over five months before Election Day in the United States, Mexican voters will set a historic milestone with the election of the country’s first female president. Over the course of her six-year term, Mexico’s new president will face enormous challenges—internally and in the country’s relationship with the United States. But, like never before, there is also a unique opportunity to strengthen the commercial and economic ties that bind the two countries and reimagine how our shared border could better serve our shared interests. Although the United States and Mexico have long been economically intertwined, in 2023, Mexico became the United States’ most important trading partner. Now more than ever, with great geopolitical headwinds, the commercial ties that bind our two countries will be increasingly critical to advancing US economic interests globally. Here, greater border efficiency will yield economic gains alongside improvements in our shared security. The Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, in partnership with internal and external colleagues and partners, sought to envision the future of two key aspects of the US-Mexico relationship: commercial flows and investment. With extensive feedback and numerous consultations with border stakeholders, including business owners, truck drivers, port operators, civilians, and local and federal elected officials, we sought out fresh perspectives and actionable recommendations. Our goal with this report is to spark dialogue among policymakers, business leaders, and civil society in both countries on the urgent need to address the immediate challenges of border efficiency and investment attraction over the next Mexican president’s term while paving the way for a more prosperous and secure future in our countries. The Rio Grande and its surrounding towns are more than a physical barrier separating the United States and Mexico. Rather, they are a vibrant artery of commerce, migration, and cultural exchange. Livelihoods depend on our border, but inefficiencies prevent us from maximizing the possible economic opportunities and achieving the necessary security gains. The pages that follow build on previous center findings and emphasize the need for a nuanced approach to foreign investment, infrastructure development, and security measures that prioritize efficiency and our national interests. This publication also seeks to bring the human dimension to the forefront. Public policy, after all, should reflect how to improve everyday lives. We consolidate the stories of real people affected by the US-Mexico border daily. The combined stories we have gathered over the last two years remind us of the impact of policy decisions. That reminder is particularly poignant with the 2024 elections on both sides of the border. Indeed, we stand on the cusp of a new chapter in our shared history. This report is a call to action for visionary leadership and bold, pragmatic solutions to the complex issues facing the United States and Mexico. We urge policymakers to embrace policies and strategies that address immediate challenges while laying the groundwork for both an even more inclusive and prosperous future. Let’s seize this unique moment in time.
- Topic:
- Elections, Economy, Innovation, Trade, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
21. An Ecofeminist Contribution to the Debates on the Neoextractivist Development Model in Latin America
- Author:
- Esra Akgemci
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This article presents a materialist ecofeminist critique of neoextractivism by highlighting its historical origins and elaborating its economic policy implications in Latin America. Three questions addressed are as follows: 1) How can materialist ecofeminism contribute to understanding the current dynamics of capitalist development in the Global South, 2) why (neo)extractivism hits women hardest, and 3) to what extent and how ecofeminist movements can shape a post-extractivist transition to a just and sustainable future. The article’s main argument is that exploitation and oppression in Latin America can be understood in terms of gender, race, and class and, therefore, require an intersectional analysis framework. Within this framework, post-extractivist alternatives in this region must incorporate an ecofeminist analysis to understand better how social expression systems (including sexism, white supremacy, and ecological crises) intersect and reinforce each other. In this framework, this study is intended to contribute to the growing literature and debate on the development and resistance dynamics of neoextractivism in Latin America, where long-standing racial and gender inequalities intersect with class inequalities.
- Topic:
- Development, Capitalism, Patriarchy, Materialism, Social Reproduction, Ecofeminism, and Neo-Developmentalism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
22. What if…? 12 Dragon King scenarios for 2028
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- At first glance, this publication appears to be a collection of Early Warning essays – they are, to some extent, but they should not be exclusively read as such. Conventional Early Warning systems have a much shorter time horizon – normally hours, perhaps months at most – than these scenarios, and they are solely mitigation mechanisms, that is to say they provide no insight into how the event they are warning of can be avoided. They are thus not an intellectual thought exercise, but solely an alarm bell. Our Dragon Kings in this volume provide insight into how they can be avoided, but they also challenge our assumptions in more ways than one. They are therefore awareness-raisers no matter how credible or plausible you will find them. Just reading them will have a readiness-increasing effect. (In fact, the more absurd you find them, the more pronounced this is because your mind will learn more when the emotion they generate is greater.) These scenarios can become even more useful, however, if you use them for simulation exercises in a team. You can use them as a blueprint for a wider scenario exercise, whether one wishes to adopt a blue or red team approach to them, and ask questions such as: how could this have been prevented, what would have to be done? What are alternative pathways of this scenario that are even worse, and how can we prevent those? The most important aspect is that every exercise of this kind must lead to some concrete policy steps. Merely thinking about improbable futures is never enough – doing something about them is what makes them a useful policy-tool. In that case, they lead to active, rather than passive, engagement with the content, foster collaboration, encourage innovation, practice decision-making, provide a space for failure and experimentation with alternative courses of action. It is precisely because of this that scenarios are a common feature in military education, but they work just as well in any other strategic context – provided, time and space is made for it. If yes, they contribute to increasing preparedness and readiness, and accelerate the response time to surprise. What’s more, generally engaging in fringe thinking about the future will strengthen these capabilities no matter what kind of surprise eventually occurs. Much like how vaccines teach the immune system, disruptive thinking strengthens our neural networks, making us more resilient for extreme situations.
- Topic:
- NATO, Natural Disasters, Elections, Crisis Management, Coup, UN Security Council, Biological Weapons, Resilience, Arctic Council, and Readiness
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iraq, Europe, India, Taiwan, Latin America, Nigeria, and Tunisia
23. Navigating Educational Disruptions: The Gender Divide in Parental Involvement and Children’s Learning Outcomes
- Author:
- Matias Ciaschi, Johanna Fajardo-Gonzalez, and Mariana Viollaz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This study analyzes the adjustment in time allocation to school support activities by mothers and fathers during the pandemic across 22 Latin American and Caribbean countries, exploring the repercussions on labor market outcomes and children’s learning losses. Our analysis reveals that mothers experienced a disproportionate increase in time dedicated to children’s educational support compared to fathers, particularly when mothers could work from home. The results suggest that these effects were more pronounced in countries with stringent school closure measures and limited access to in-person instruction. Even as mobility restrictions eased and schools reopened, the additional responsibilities taken on by mothers remained above pre-pandemic levels. Mothers also significantly increased the time spent on non-educational childcare, though to a lesser extent than educational support. We also show evidence indicating a decline in maternal labor force participation and a rise in flexible labor arrangements as mothers allocated more hours to child-related duties. Our study also provides descriptive evidence that children’s learning losses were less severe in countries where the gender disparity in pandemicrelated school support was greater.
- Topic:
- Education, Labor Issues, COVID-19, Parenting, and Childcare
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
24. Beyond Traditional Wage Premium. An Analysis of Wage Greenium in Latin America
- Author:
- Manuela Cerimelo, Pablo de la Vega, Natalia Porto, and Franco Vazquez
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates wage differentials between green and non-green jobs (wage greenium) in nine major Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay), which account for 81% of the region’s GDP. We contribute to the recent literature highlighting a positive wage gap for those working in green jobs in developed countries. A positive wage gap for green jobs may be a virtuous market feature, as it means that in the future workers might be encouraged to switch to greener occupations. To do so, we define green jobs as those occupations with high greenness scores using the occupational approach as in Vona et al. (2018), Vona (2021) and de la Vega et al. (2024). Our results suggest that the wage greenium for the period 2012-2019 in Latin America was between 18% to 22%. Moreover, this wage gap has remained relatively stable over the years.
- Topic:
- Labor Market, Wages, and Green Jobs
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Latin America, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia
25. The Impact of COVID-19 on Education in Latin America: Long-Run Implications for Poverty and Inequality
- Author:
- Jessica Bracco, Matias Ciaschi, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Guido Neidhöfer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the human capital formation of children and youths. As a consequence of this disruption, the pandemic is likely to imply permanent lower levels of human capital. This paper provides new evidence on the impact of COVID-19 and school closures on education in Latin America by exploiting harmonized microdata from a large set of national household surveys carried out in 2020, during the pandemic. In addition, the paper uses microsimulations to assess the potential effect of changes in human capital due to the COVID-19 crisis on future income distributions. The findings show that the pandemic is likely to have significant long-run consequences in terms of incomes and poverty if strong compensatory measures are not taken soon.
- Topic:
- Education, Poverty, Inequality, Human Capital, COVID-19, and Income
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
26. Analyzing how rampant organized crime is impacting Latin America’s stability ?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The ongoing violent tensions engulfing some Latin American countries, starting with Ecuador in the east and extending to Haiti in the Caribbean in the west, raise questions about the motives behind the growing illicit activities of organized crime across the continent. Those activities include drug production and trafficking, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and others. Such transnational crimes pose security threats and challenges to the countries of the region and neighboring states, foremost among them the United States, which has historically regarded Latin America as its backyard, allowing no one to approach the continent or interfere in its affairs without prior permission.
- Topic:
- Crime, Political stability, Violence, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Haiti, and Ecuador
27. China and Latin America: A New Assessment
- Author:
- Parsifal D'Sola Alvarado and Xiaobo Lü
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Parsifal D'Sola, a MARSEA alum, will deliver a presentation offering a general overview of the current state and prospective trends in China-Latin America relations. The talk will explore the evolving interactions and strategic dynamics between China and Latin American countries, highlighting developments over the past two decades. Key areas of discussion include the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America and the peripheral effects of US-China tensions on the region. An important aspect of the presentation will be examining the diverse perceptions of China across Latin American countries and how these views influence bilateral relations and policy decisions. D'Sola will also share his thoughts on future trends, offering a broad perspective on the likely course of China's engagement with Latin America in the coming years. Speaker's Bio: Parsifal D’Sola is the founder and executive director of the Andres Bello Foundation – China Latin America Research Center in Bogota, Colombia. He is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Parsifal is a Chinese foreign policy analyst specializing in Sino-Latin American relations with a focus on Venezuela. Between 2019 and 2020, he acted as Chinese foreign policy advisor to the Foreign Affairs Minister of the Interim Government of Venezuela. He holds a BS in Telecommunications Engineering from Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, an MA in East Asian Studies from Columbia University, an MSc in International Politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London University, and an advance language diploma from Beijing Language and Culture University.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Latin America
28. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part II–Provincializing Metaphors, Reading (with) Onuf from Latin America
- Author:
- Manuela Trindade Viana and Roberto Vilchez Yamato
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Contexto Internacional
- Institution:
- Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
- Abstract:
- In this Dossier, four scholars reflect on Nicholas Onuf’s leading article, ‘Metaphoricizing modernity’, (re)engaging with – and celebrating – more broadly Onuf’s groundbreaking work from different places, perspectives, and angles. Part II rethinks (with) Onuf from Latin America, questioning and provincializing (certain) metaphors and metaphoricizing. Manuela Trindade Viana analyzes the conditions of possibility and the effects of ‘Colombianization’ as a powerful metaphor that came to circulate in Latin America since the late 2000s, in reference both to a specific diagnosis of a problem of violence and the solutions implemented to confront it. Challenging (certain) aspects of Onuf’s account about what metaphors do in our worlds, she argues that the security policy domain valorizes the universal push underlying the imperative to make models travel as a condition for the legitimation of their work in crafting solutions that fit to ‘similar problematically violent’ situations in Latin America. Roberto Vilchez Yamato offers an-other (re)reading of Onuf’s work. (Re)turning to Onuf’s World of Our Making, he (re)thinks the correlation(s) between metaphors, rules, and the conditions of rule, drawing attention to the crucial place of language within Onuf’s work. Supplementarily, Yamato engages with Onuf’s more recent The Mightie Frame, ‘the second half’ of his ‘decades-long project’, suggesting a certain rethinking of the ‘microphysics’ of language, the conditions of thought, and the conditions of rule, within which metaphors and metaphorical complexes are given center stage. (Re)reading (some of) Onuf’s work, he concludes his article wondering about how Onuf would respond to the question of provincializing metaphors.
- Topic:
- Violence, Language, Metaphors, Provincializing, and Colombianization
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
29. How Latin America Can Delink from Imperialism
- Author:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- This dossier explores the possibilities that the current crisis of global capitalism creates for sovereign regional development projects in Latin America and the Caribbean and the importance of South-South alliances in this struggle.
- Topic:
- Development, Imperialism, Capitalism, Alliance, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Caribbean
30. To Confront Rising Neofascism, the Latin American Left Must Rediscover Itself
- Author:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- This dossier presents a broad overview of the Latin American far right’s political, economic, and cultural programmes and how the absence of a real left political project that secures better living conditions has thrown different fractions of the working class into the grip of neofascism.
- Topic:
- Far Right, Leftist Politics, Progressivism, Neofascism, and Antifascism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
31. The Mexican Space Industry: Past, Present, and Future
- Author:
- Katya Echazarreta
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Mexico has been a participant in the ever-evolving global space industry for almost four decades now. Over that period, there have been opportunities for the country to enter the emerging field as a prominent actor. However, upon a close analysis of Mexican history, it is evident that this particular industry was most likely defined by private commercial needs first and social needs second.1 As demand for space technology grew, the need for a space agency became ap- parent. However, the Mexican Space Agency’s development was misconstrued from its inception. Its purpose was to financially stimulate the Mexican space industry as opposed to centering on the development of an astronaut program or the construction of rocket technology. The initial financing of $800,000 did not properly set the agency up for success. At the time, it was believed that Mexico would catch up to Brazil and Canada in their technological development over a period of ten years.2 However, the test of time has proven this to be far from the case. In the years that followed, Mexico was again presented with an opportunity to change its course with the Space Activities Constitutional Reform gaining traction in 2023. This reform would prioritize Space activities as a means of national development and grant the country’s Congress the rights necessary to create secondary laws to regulate the industry for both government and com- mercial players. By allowing not only national but also international players to get involved, Mexico would become a more prominent player in the Space Industry.3 As the commercial space industry continues to grow into projected estimates of $1 trillion or more by 2040, Mexico finds itself in an ideal moment to regulate its own space activities to encourage active participation in the field.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Reform, Space, Innovation, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
32. Democratic Culture and Digital Ecosystems: Women’s Political Participation in Latin America
- Author:
- Lucia Picarella
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- This article investigated the increase of online hate speech practices in Latin America against women social leaders and political candidates during electoral campaigns and social rights activism. A qualitative approach was used to study this research problem (case study and secondary data analysis) to demonstrate that the growth of online hate speech limits the sociopolitical participation and enjoyment of fundamental rights of Latin American women social leaders and political candidates. The main results of the case study demonstrated that critical digital media education represents a possibility of intervention to counterbalance these discriminatory online practices. In this sense, the conclusions proposed Latin American educomunicación as a methodology for constructing ethical, social, and political alternatives because it promotes the development of critical collective consciousness and strengthens the effectiveness of normative actions.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Women, Hate Speech, Freedom, Political Participation, Digital Platforms, and Digital Ecosystems
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
33. At Home or Abroad, U.S. Firearms Should Not Fuel Violence, Instability, and Abuse
- Author:
- Allison McManus and Laura Kilbury
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- Congress and the Biden administration should strengthen the U.S. Department of Commerce’s efforts to prevent American firearms from reaching adversaries and fueling global violence and rights abuses.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Weapons, and Gun Violence
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Latin America, and United States of America
34. Local Justice Systems in Colombia: The Road to Collaborative Justice that Prioritizes People
- Author:
- Edgar Ardila Amaya and Laura Ospina
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- People-centered justice puts people and their needs at the center of justice policies, programs, and services. Starting by understanding their most common problems and experiences in trying to resolve them, people-centered justice takes a data-driven and evidence-based approach to prevent and resolve people’s problems. Through its focus on fair outcomes for people, people-centered justice is different than current approaches to justice, which tend to focus on processes and institutions and seem to serve a few rather than all. Colombia’s Local Justice Systems (LJSs) are a good example of a people-centered approach to justice. Their success hinges on effective coordination and collaboration among various justice actors, spanning national and local levels. The strategy did not emerge from a policy established by a particular entity but, rather, from the convergence of various initiatives in an organic way over a period spanning more than two decades in different regions of the country. This case study seeks to put a spotlight on Colombia’s LJSs and their contribution to the 2030 Agenda, particularly focusing on the target of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16.3, which aims to facilitate universal access to justice through effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels. The study analyzes the convergence process that has shaped the current state of the LJS, aiming to identify its constituent elements and assess the evidence of its impact across various levels and institutional structures within the Colombian justice system, as well as its role in bridging the gap in access to justice. It highlights successful experiences and lessons learned in the strategy’s implementation which may be useful for other contexts. To thoroughly understand the initiative, the study begins by discussing key challenges to access to justice in Colombia and shows how the LJSs emerged as a response to these local hurdles. Given the multifaceted nature of the LJSs evolution, the study emphasizes how state actors at different levels, supported by international cooperation, converge with community experiences. In doing so, it offers important lessons on the importance of collaboration and coordination at the local level for improving people’s access to justice.
- Topic:
- Sustainable Development Goals, Accountability, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
35. Mexico Peace Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the 11th edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis, and estimates of the economic impact of violence. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. The MPI consists of 12 sub-indicators aggregated into five major indicators. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 1.4 percent in 2023. This was the fourth straight year of improvement, following four consecutive years of deteriorations. However, more states deteriorated than improved, with 15 states improving and 17 deteriorating.
- Topic:
- Economics, Violence, Peace, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
36. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU
- Author:
- Reinhold Brender
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific
37. Amérique latine. L'année politique 2023
- Author:
- David Recondo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- Amérique latine. L’Année politique 2023 est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clés de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Crime, Democratization, Politics, Governance, Urbanization, European Union, Multilateralism, Regional Integration, Memory, and Social Policy
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
38. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program
- Author:
- Bonnie S. Glaser, Joshua Stone, Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, and Francesca Ghiretti
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The papers in this compendium were written by 11 members of the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) delegation: Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, Francesca Ghiretti, Heather Hwalek, Leland Lazarus, Lauren Racusin, Friso Stevens, Joshua Stone, Brian Volsky, Theresa Winter, Adrienne Wu. Transatlantic attention to Taiwan has surged in recent years for several reasons. First, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased concern in the United States and Europe that Beijing’s growing military capabilities and declining confidence in its ability to achieve peaceful reunification will soon lead the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attempt a takeover of Taiwan by force. The cost of such a war would carry a price tag of around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP, according to Bloomberg Economics, far higher than the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The devastating impact of a Taiwan Strait conflict has provided a wake-up call for leaders in Europe who now echo the Biden administration’s warnings to PRC leader Xi Jinping to refrain from using violence to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Taiwan is now a regular agenda item in the US-EU Consultations on the Indo-Pacific and the US-EU Dialogue on China. Second, intensifying US-China strategic competition has increasingly focused on technology with chips at the center. Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. A single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), manufactures most of those chips. Recognition of Taiwan’s dominant role in the semiconductor supply chain has provided another reason to bolster deterrence. It has also sparked interest in “friendshoring” and “onshoring” semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC plans to start production at its first fab in Arizona in 2025 and will break ground on another in Dresden at the end of 2024 with an estimated completion date of 2027. Recognizing the rising geopolitical risks and their own strategic dependencies, the United States and the EU have made building resilient supply chains a priority, especially in semiconductors. In its 2021 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Brussels explicitly committed the EU to engaging with Taiwan in creating resilient supply chains. Third, rising concern in the United States and Europe about election interference and disinformation have sparked interest in learning from Taiwan’s experience in combatting such threats. In the run-up to the January 13, 2024, presidential and legislative elections, PRC attempts to interfere in Taiwan’s politics surged to unprecedented levels through economic coercion, direct political meddling, displays of military force, and manipulation of social media. As the United States and many European countries prepare for their own national elections this year, they are engaging with experts from Taiwan to better understand PRC tactics and the tools that Taiwan successfully employed to counter PRC interference. Fourth, the United States and Europe increasingly recognize that Taiwan’s vibrant and successful democracy is under threat from an authoritarian regime. Taiwan has received high marks for protecting political rights and holding free and fair elections. Taiwan’s democratic achievements are even more impressive when set against the backdrop of a deterioration in freedom worldwide. Like other industrialized democracies, Taiwan faces a multitude of challenges that are especially difficult to address in the face of PRC efforts that prevent Taiwan’s government and its people from interacting with the world. Taiwan’s exclusion from international organizations also hampers the world’s ability to develop effective solutions to myriad problems. The Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) was launched in 2017 to encourage young professionals from the United States to include Taiwan in their research and help Taipei expand its global networks. In 2022, TUPP was expanded to include young professionals from Europe in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the United States through meetings with officials and experts in Washington, DC, followed by a visit to Taiwan to gain first-hand exposure to its politics, culture, and history. Experiencing Taiwan influences how these future leaders approach their work and their writing. It impacts their worldview by imbuing them with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history and commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order. It also reinforces the importance of maintaining robust bilateral relations and strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The 2024 TUPP cohort traveled to Taiwan in February for an intense week of meetings and activities. Each participant gained insights into Taiwan and its role in their respective fields. This year’s delegation comprised five Americans and five Europeans. Over time, TUPP seeks to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of this goal. The contributions here, written by the entire 2024 TUPP delegation, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate continued transatlantic and global interest in Taiwan and its future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Poland, Germany, Latin America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
39. The Responsibility to Protect in the Americas: Exploring Sources of Mass Atrocity Risk and Best Practices for Response
- Author:
- Elisabeth Pramendorfer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Over the past four decades, countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean have made important strides – transitioning from dictatorship to democracy, exploring avenues for transitional justice, reconciliation and memorialization of past atrocities, and becoming champions of the human rights norms and multilateral institutions that safeguard humanity. Despite this progress, today the region has once again become one of the most violent in the world and governments around the region are systematically curtailing human rights. Independent UN investigations have documented possible crimes against humanity in Venezuela and Nicaragua. Similar patterns of systematic violations are unfolding in El Salvador. Escalating urban and gang-related violence in Brazil and Haiti resemble conflict zones and have resulted in unprecedented casualties. Meanwhile, the structural marginalization of Indigenous Peoples across the region, the militarization of security strategies and attacks against judicial independence are emblematic features of many countries in the Americas. Despite documentation of how phenomena like gang violence and structural marginalization of Indigenous Peoples may facilitate an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes, atrocity prevention frameworks have not sufficiently considered the unique risks associated with these threats. While varying in scope and severity, democratic backsliding has further exacerbated the risks associated with these patterns in recent years. Instead of addressing such institutional risk factors, governments have gradually eroded the rule of law and have resorted to violating human rights, curtailing, and, in some cases, repressing and criminalizing civic space. Disproportionate and violent responses to street protests in Chile, Colombia and the United States further demonstrate that atrocity prevention should become both a domestic and foreign policy imperative. This Occasional Paper assesses recent protracted and emerging atrocity crises by examining various institutional and hybrid risk factors present in Venezuela, Nicaragua and El Salvador. This paper also provides recommendations for governments to identify gaps and opportunities to address atrocity risks in their own country, as well as how to strengthen the region’s atrocity prevention capacities by presenting options available on the regional and multilateral level to ensure robust and time-sensitive response. It is not too late to ensure effective, holistic and coordinated response to emerging situations in the Latin America and Caribbean region. Doing so will require the requisite political will, a steadfast commitment and the courage to prioritize human rights by countries in the region and beyond.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocity Prevention, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Caribbean
40. The Generals’ Labyrinth: Crime and the Military in Mexico
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Mexico’s outgoing president has deployed more soldiers than ever to fight crime. But levels of violence remain high. His successor should set limits to the military’s role in public safety while working to sever state officials’ ties to criminals and allow better civilian law enforcement.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Law Enforcement, Organized Crime, Public Safety, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
41. Informe Iberoamérica 2024: El desafío de la seguridad para las democracias latinoamericanas
- Author:
- Lucía Dammert, Thiago Rodrigues, Dorly Castañeda, Erika Rodríguez Pinzón, and Matías Mongan Marcó
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- Las crisis de inseguridad que vive América Latina se ha convertido en una amenaza real para nuestras democracias. La inseguridad ciudadana, exacerbada por el crimen organizado, el avance del narcotráfico y la violencia endémica no solo destruye vidas humanas y bienestar, sino que también erosiona la confianza en el Estado y sus instituciones. La impunidad, la corrupción y la ineficacia en la administración de la justicia crean un círculo vicioso que debilita las bases mismas de la democracia y de nuestro contrato social. Nuestro Informe Iberoamérica 2024 hace un repaso de varios asuntos centrales relativos a la actual crisis de seguridad ciudadana, incluyendo las transformaciones en el aparato policial, la economía política del narcotráfico, o el crecimiento del ciberdelito, y casos concretos como Ecuador o la frontera entre Colombia y Venezuela. España y Europa no son ajenas a este fenómeno y han empezado a tender puentes con la región para cooperar en múltiples aspectos. Con las próximas Cumbres Iberoamericana y UE-CELAC en el horizonte, invitamos a responsables políticos, expertos y agentes sociales a debatir y buscar soluciones conjuntas para Iberoamérica sobre este asunto fundamental.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Democracy, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
42. A post-Western global order in the making? Foreign policy goals of India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa
- Author:
- Sinikukka Saari, Toni Alaranta, Bart Gaens, Katariina Mustasilta, and Lauri Tahtinen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa are striving for a more multipolar, post-Western world order in which they would not be seen merely as auxiliary powers to the bigger players, but as independent great powers. For them, a key foreign policy goal is to transform global governance institutions. They all call for a permanent seat for their country on the UN Security Council. To achieve that, the states need backing from more than the Western states – and this logically strengthens the multi-aligned logic of their foreign policies. India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa see Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the Western countermeasures from their own perspective. They describe Russia’s invasion as a violation of international law, but see the war primarily as a Western concern, not theirs. Although these states are critical towards the West, they are not anti-Western and they all value multilateral institutions; their foreign policy goals and features offer opportunities for the EU to engage with them, but that needs to happen on a more equal footing than what has traditionally been the case.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, UN Security Council, Multipolarity, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, India, Asia, Brazil, and Latin America
43. Mexico’s domestic decay: Implications for the United States and Europe
- Author:
- Lauri Tahtinen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has challenged Mexico’s democratic institutions, including the electoral commission INE, and relies on the military to run sectors of the economy and to provide internal security. Recognizing the continuing strategic importance of its southern neighbor, the United States is attempting to “friend-shore” American industry to Mexico despite trade disputes. Mexico’s economic convergence with the US is giving way to ideological divergence. In the past year, Mexico has called NATO’s stance on Ukraine “immoral” and openly aligned with the leftist, anti-US dictators of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Mexico’s internal development and shifting external stance could spark a return to a United States focused on the protection of its 19th-century borders instead of its 20th-century global footprint. European attention to the future of Mexico can help diversify the country’s trade and other partnerships, as well as shine a light on its democratic decay.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Democracy, Europe, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
44. Continuismo, contra reacción y triangulación: el desembarco de China en América Latina y la coexistencia de líneas de acción exterior de España hacia la región
- Author:
- Javier Martín Merchán
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Las relaciones entre España y América Latina siempre han conformado un pilar en la estrategia de integración internacional del país ibérico. No obstante, ante la singular coyuntura que supone el auge exponencial de China en la región latinoamericana, ¿qué riesgos afronta hoy España en América Latina? ¿Ha influido dicha coyuntura en las líneas maestras de acción exterior de España hacia la región? Este artículo arroja algo de luz en torno a tales preguntas, y su conclusión es doble. Por un lado, sugiere que el desembarco chino supone un serio desafío para España. Por otro, se sostiene que la política exterior española ha hecho coexistir tres tipos de actitudes como respuesta: una más continuista, otra que capitaliza esta nueva coyuntura y busca aprovechar sus oportunidades, y una última más reactiva a las amenazas que suscitaría la pujanza china en América Latina.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Latin America, and Spain
45. La puerta de Latinoamérica: Las relaciones de Panamá con Estados Unidos y China, oportunidades y desafíos
- Author:
- Rodrigo Matías Martín and Guillermo Enrique Boscán
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- Este articulo analiza las relaciones de Panamá con China y Estados Unidos, las dos mayores potencias mundiales en la actualidad. En primer lugar, se revisan las relaciones que el país latinoamericano ha tenido con China desde la creación de Panamá como país, llegando hasta el cambio de reconocimiento diplomático en el año 2017, así como las nuevas relaciones con la República Popular China. Tras ello se analizan los desafíos que tiene Panamá en el contexto de sus nuevas relaciones diplomáticas. En la siguiente sección se revisan de igual manera las relaciones históricas entre Panamá y Estados Unidos, llegando hasta el día de hoy, y se analizan las oportunidades que ofrecen los Estados Unidos a Panamá.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Panama Canal
- Political Geography:
- China, Latin America, Panama, and United States of America
46. La evolución de la política exterior ecuatoriana durante el Siglo XXI: Análisis desde la teoría del Realismo Periférico
- Author:
- Miguel Paradela López and Dalia González Delgado
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- El presente artículo analiza la evolución de la política exterior ecuatoriana durante los gobiernos de Rafael Correa, Lenín Moreno y Guillermo Lasso a la luz de los postulados teóricos del realismo periférico, que sostienen que los pequeños y medianos Estados deben desarrollar una política de colaboración con las grandes potencias y reducir su oposición a aquellos eventos que directamente afectan a los intereses de sus nacionales. Para ello, se analizan momentos clave de cada uno de los siguientes gobiernos, incluyendo el cierre de la Base de Manta, la relación con el FMI, la entrega de Julian Assange o la compra de vacunas contra el Covid-19. El artículo concluye mostrando cómo los tres presidentes desarrollaron estrategias que no maximizaron los intereses ecuatorianos, en tanto que alternaron gobiernos donde el enfrentamiento con las grandes potencias fue generalizado con gobiernos que priorizaron el acercamiento con estos a costa de los intereses nacionales.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, History, Political Science, Strategic Interests, and Peripheral Realism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Ecuador
47. Despliegue del poder blando chino en América Latina y recepción en los países de la región
- Author:
- Juan Ignacio Brito Munita and Francisco Javier Tagle Montt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- El concepto del poder blando ha cobrado relevancia en Relaciones Internacionales. Asociado típicamente a EE.UU., en los últimos años también China ha promovido su poder blando, llegando a América Latina. Tras revisar las dificultades para acordar una definición del término, esta investigación observa el fenómeno desde una doble perspectiva: por un lado, analiza el despliegue del poder blando chino en la región; por otro, evalúa la respuesta de los países latinoamericanos ante él. Postula que, mientras China usa una definición amplia del poder blando que aplica en la región y la vincula prioritariamente a aspectos de su política doméstica, la recepción de los gobiernos latinoamericanos la hace depender de la variable siguiente: aunque todos acogen la ofensiva económica china y se acercan al gigante asiático, la manera en que reaccionan a ella está condicionada a la postura que mantienen hacia EE.UU.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and Hard Power
- Political Geography:
- China, Latin America, and United States of America
48. Entre la pradera, la frontera y el puerto. Cambios y continuidades de la política exterior uruguaya
- Author:
- Castellar Granados
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- En este artículo se analizan los lineamientos de la política exterior uruguaya hasta la última alternancia política en el Gobierno nacional poniendo especial énfasis en las relaciones con China y Estados Unidos. Para ello se parte de la hipótesis planteada en trabajos previos que apunta a ideología partidaria variable explicativa de los planteamientos en política exterior en Uruguay. Así, en primer lugar, se expone una revisión histórica de los antecedentes de la política exterior uruguaya y de las principales tradiciones intelectuales que ayudaron a formular el pensamiento internacional. En segundo lugar, se explica el marco institucional, los principales ejes en política exterior y los planteamientos del Gobierno de Lacalle Pou en materia internacional. Posteriormente, se analizan las preferencias de las élites políticas en materia de política exterior. Y, por último, el artículo aporta algunas reflexiones finales a modo de conclusión y líneas de actuación para futuros trabajos.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ideology, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Uruguay and Latin America
49. Los retos de Honduras en materia de inseguridad. El dilema de Xiomara Castro ante el populismo punitivo y de la seguridad.
- Author:
- Javier Lozano Cobos
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
- Institution:
- Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
- Abstract:
- La militarización y el combate como herramienta casi exclusiva contra la violencia y la inseguridad ha sido el paradigma de profundo calado en Honduras y la mayor parte de la región, lo que implica la solución a los problemas de inseguridad en clave de guerra. Este conflicto asimétrico entre los grupos criminales y los Estados se recrudeció a raíz de la Guerra contra las Drogas iniciada por el presidente mexicano Calderón, y no es sino la continuación de las diversas guerras contra ya ensayadas en Centroamérica bajo inspiración de los EEUU. Con la llegada al poder de la presidenta hondureña, Xiomara Castro, se advertía un cambio en relación a las políticas de seguridad que no se enfocaran exclusivamente en la mano dura, sino que abordara la reforma integral del Estado priorizando la lucha contra la corrupción y la impunidad, así como la mejora de la calidad de la democracia. Una ola de populismo punitivo recorre la región, pero la mejora en los niveles de inseguridad en Honduras no será sostenible mediante el uso exclusivo de la fuerza ni estados de excepción.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Human Rights, War on Drugs, Democracy, Geopolitics, Inequality, Populism, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America
50. ‘Follow the Money’: tracking the diffusion of the American anti-money laundering policy in Latin America (1990s-2000s)
- Author:
- Mariana Medeiros Bernussi, Priscila Villela, and Lívia Jardinovsky Debatin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Institution:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Abstract:
- Given the wide reach of transnational crimes and the illegal flow of money, policing at an international level has become a new frontier for authorities who aim to control these threats. The United States has taken the center stage in this effort ever since the proclamation of the War on Drugs and the continuing War on Terror by promoting the ‘Follow the Money’ principle as a fundamental strategy to be adopted worldwide. The main goal of this paper is to identify the US efforts to formulate and expand the anti-money laundering agenda and policies to Latin America, from the 1990s to the 2000s, mobilizing the policy diffusion approach. By incorporating this thinking tool, we also aim to highlight the United States hegemonic position when establishing agendas and priorities internationally. Therefore, based on a qualitative design, we trace US official documents describing strategies, practices and policies aimed at promoting anti-money laundering policies in Latin American institutions through coercion, competition, learning and emulation mechanisms. As a result, by promoting training events and formulating evaluation mechanisms, the US has stimulated Latin American countries to elaborate their own law enforcement efforts inspired by these same paradigms, indicating that the US uses these anti-money launderinginstruments to promote its policy agenda internationally.
- Topic:
- War on Drugs, Financial Crimes, War on Terror, Money Laundering, and Policy Diffusion
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and United States of America