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1. Growth in an uncertain global environment: The outlook for Latin America

Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The growth rates witnessed in markets across Latin America in the decade to 2010 pulled millions out of poverty, led to rapid growth of the middle class and helped to demonstrate the promise of emerging markets. Since then, however, growth has slowed dramatically across the region. 2015 will mark the fifth successive year of deceleration in Latin America, which has slowed more than any other emerging market region. With concerns over the ability of emerging markets to withstand a slowdown in China and monetary policy normalisation in the US growing, risks to the growth and financing outlook for Latin America persist. However, as economic recovery starts to gather pace in the region, opportunities for investment and growth will also re-emerge. This report provides a snapshot of the current political and economic landscape in the region, and in some of Latin America’s largest economies: Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Each article analyses key concerns and presents our view of the outlook going forward, helping you to influence decision-making and economic outcomes for your business.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Latin America

2. Double Profit: Financing Consumers

Author:
Alana Tummino
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Americas Quarterly
Institution:
Council of the Americas
Abstract:
Across Latin America, retailers, telecommunications companies and shopping malls are reaping the benefits of a growing middle class that is able to shop more and spend more. According to McKinsey Company, Latin America is one of the largest emerging markets in the world with a combined GDP of $3.2 trillion, boasting triple the GDP per capita of China and seven times that of India.
Topic:
Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
China, India, and Latin America

3. The Defense Acquisition Trilemma: The Case of Brazil

Author:
Patrice Franko
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Brazil is a puzzling new player in the global system. Emerging as a complex international actor, it has come to be seen as a significant economic competitor and dynamic force in world politics. But transformational changes in the economic and political realms have not been accompanied by advances in military power. While Brazil has entered the world stage as an agile soft power exercising influence in setting global agendas and earning a seat at the economic table of policymakers, its military capacity lags. The national security strategy announced under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2008 intended to redress this power gap. President Dilma Rousseff 's 2011 White Paper—so detailed that it is called a "White Book"—provides the conceptual roadmap to achieve a new military balance. But military modernization is still a work in progress.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

4. Sergio Cabral Filho, former Governor of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Author:
Sergio Cabral Filho
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program, titled "Rio de Janeiro: from Ostracism to Protagonism" features an address by Sergio Cabral Filho, former Governor of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Introduction and Moderated by Lee C. Bollinger, President, Columbia University in the City of New York.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
New York, Brazil, and Latin America

5. Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises

Author:
Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Latin American performance during the global financial crisis was unprecedented. Many developing and emerging countries successfully weathered the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Was it good luck? Was it good policies? In this paper we compare growth during the Asian and global financial crises and find that a looser monetary policy played an important role in mitigating crisis. We also find that higher private credit, more financial openness, less trade openness, and greater exchange rate intervention worsened economic performance. Our analysis of Latin American countries confirms that effective macroeconomic management was key to good economic performance. Finally, we present evidence from a sample of 31 emerging markets that high terms of trade had a positive impact on resilience.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

6. Achieving Development Success: Strategies and Lessons from the Developing World

Author:
Augustin K. Fosu
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What can the less well-off developing countries learn from the “successes” of other developing countries? This Policy Brief highlights successful development strategies and lessons from in-depth case studies of select countries from the developing world. The coverage includes East Asia and the Pacific, the emerging Asian giants, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa, along with respective regional syntheses. Although countries' experiences are not necessarily replicable, the recurrent themes across countries and regions provide the appropriate connectedness for a comprehensive global perspective on development strategies and lessons.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Latin America

7. The EU and Brazil: Partnering in an uncertain world?

Author:
Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The international system is changing fast and both the European Union and Brazil will need to adapt. This paper argues that such a process of adjustment may bring the two closer together, even if their starting points differ considerably. Europe looks at the ongoing redistribution of power as a challenge, Brazil as an opportunity. Europe is coping with the detrimental impact of the economic crisis on its international profile; Brazil is enhancing its influence in its region and beyond. Their normative outlook is broadly compatible; their political priorities and behaviour in multilateral frameworks often differ, from trade to development and security issues. Despite the crisis, however, there are signals of renewed engagement by the EU on the international stage, with a focus on its troubled neighbourhood and partnerships with the US and large emerging actors such as Brazil. The latter is charting an original course in international affairs as a rising democratic power from the traditional South with no geopolitical opponents and a commitment to multilateralism. In testing the limits of its international influence, Brazil will need dependable partners and variable coalitions that go well beyond the BRICS format, which is not necessarily sustainable. This contribution suggests that the strategic partnership between the EU and Brazil may grow stronger not only as a platform to deepen economic ties and sustain growth, but also as a tool to foster cooperation in political and security affairs including crisis management, preventive diplomacy and human rights.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Latin America

8. LATIN AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEMS IN A HISTORICAL AND COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Author:
Jorge Balán
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
Higher education has undergone impressive growth and change over the last few decades in Latin America.This book selectively reviews some dimensions of this transformation, discussing policies, institutions, and programs, as well as their outcomes in terms of access, workforce training, and research. Individual chapters, commissioned from specialists from Latin America and the United States, stand as original, independent contributions focusing on key issues in higher education: changes in institutional autonomy and system governance, the contributions of higher education to advanced workforce development, policy responses to the continuing challenges of access and equity, government-sponsored study-abroad scholarships programs in several countries, trends in academic mobility and its outcomes for brain drain and gain, the changing landscape of U.S. universities' and corporations' investment in the region, and recent development of U.S. government exchange programs with Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

9. Brazil in the South Atlantic: growing protagonism and unintended consequences

Author:
Adriana Erthal Abdenur and Danilo Marcondes de Souza Neto
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
For most of the twentieth century, the strategic importance of the North Atlantic outstripped that of the southern part of the ocean. However, the past decade has brought significant shifts in Atlantic dynamics, with regional and external actors developing new interests in the region. Brazil, in particular, has been working to reinforce its control and influence in the South Atlantic. To this end, over the last five years the Brazilian government has launched or intensified efforts meant to securitise the South Atlantic. This strategy combines unilateral initiatives – naval build-up, domestic military publicity efforts, and international legal moves – with a vastly expanded international defence cooperation programme that covers nearly the entire South Atlantic perimeter. This policy brief analyses key components of Brazil's strategy, situating them within the South Atlantic's changing ecology of actors and suggesting some of the potential tensions that may arise from Brazil's growing protagonism in the South Atlantic.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America

10. Declining Inequality in Latin America in the 2000s: The Cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico.

Author:
Nora Lustig, Luis F. Lopez-Calva, and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Between 2000 and 2010, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources. In-depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico suggest two main phenomena underlie this trend: a fall in the premium to skilled labor and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills resulted from a combination of supply, demand, and institutional factors. Their relative importance depends on the country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, and Mexico

11. Assessing Potential Inflation Consequences of QE after Financial Crises

Author:
Samuel Reynard
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Financial crises have been followed by different inflation paths which are related to monetary policy and money creation by the banking sector during those crises. Accounting for equilibrium changes and non-linearity issues, the empirical relationship between money and subsequent inflation developments has remained stable and similar in crisis and normal times. This analysis can explain why the financial crisis in Argentina in the early 2000s was followed by increasing inflation, whereas Japan experienced deflation in the 1990s and 2000s despite quantitative easing. Current quantitative easing policies should lead to increasing and persistent inflation over the next years.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America

12. Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Carlos Montoro
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The financial systems in emerging market economies during the 2008–09 global financial crisis performed much better than in previous crisis episodes, albeit with significant differences across regions. For example, real credit growth in Asia and Latin America was less affected than in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper identifies the factors at both the country and the bank levels that contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in Latin America during the global financial crisis. The resilience of real credit during the crisis was highly related to policies, measures and reforms implemented in the pre-crisis period. In particular, we find that the best explanatory variables were those that gauged the economy's capacity to withstand an external financial shock. Key were balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short-term debt). The quality of pre-crisis credit growth mattered as much as its rate of expansion. Credit expansions that preserved healthy balance sheet measures (the “quality” dimension) proved to be more sustainable. Variables signalling the capacity to set countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies during the crisis were also important determinants. Moreover, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity and bank efficiency, also played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks which had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit most. The methodology used in this paper includes the construction of indicators of resilience of real credit growth to adverse external shocks in a large number of emerging markets, not just in Latin America. As additional data become available, these indicators could be part of a set of analytical tools to assess how emerging market economies are preparing themselves to cope with the adverse effects of global financial turbulence on real credit growth.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Latin America

13. Competitiveness in Central America: The Road to Sustained Growth and Poverty Reduction

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, José Luis Guasch, and Veronica Gonzales
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Over the last decade, Central American countries—Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua—have made significant progress in social and economic areas. In particular, they have stabilized their economies after decades of civil war and the economic volatility that plagued the region through the 1990s. Most countries in Central America have taken important steps to improve their business climates, particularly by enhancing macroeconomic stability, improving the soundness of their financial systems, making improvements in infrastructure services and trade facilitation, reducing red tape, and simplifying their regulatory and tax frameworks. As a result, before the 2008 financial crisis, GDP per capita in Central America grew at an average rate of 3 percent per year from 2003 to 2008, which, albeit modest, was the most robust and stable period of growth the region had witnessed since the early 1990s. However, despite this achievement, Central American economies are still lagging behind the rest of Latin America and other middle-income countries by per-capita growth rates of 0.5 to 2 percentage points. Even more worrying are the levels of poverty and inequality, which show the lack of inclusiveness in their growth models. Moreover, recent developments in the region show a number of red flags that are weakening macroeconomic and democratic stability. Significant structural changes are urgently needed to secure sustained and inclusive growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

14. New Approaches to Global Health Cooperation: Perspectives from Brazil

Author:
Katherine E. Bliss, Paulo Buss, and Felix Rosenberg
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
On November 7, 2011, the Global Health Policy Center of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the Fiocruz Center for Global Health (CRIS) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, hosted a seminar entitled “New Approaches to Global Health Cooperation.” The event, which took place in Rio de Janeiro, assembled health policy researchers and practitioners from Brazil, Europe, the United States, and sub - Saharan Africa to examine emerging practices in global health co operation. Issues considered included the factors driving greater international engagement on public health challenges, the growing trend of trilateral cooperation, and the role of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and South - South activities in expanding international cooperation on global health. Over the course of the day - long meeting, speakers and audience members examined the reasons for the overall expansion of funding and programming for overseas global health activities durin g the past decade; considered the factors that underpin Brazil's increasing focus on global health as an area of bilateral and multilateral outreach; reviewed the characteristics of successful trilateral cooperation efforts; and debated the future of multi country engagement on health.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Health, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Washington, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Latin America

15. Trust, Engagement, and Technology Transfer: Underpinnings for U.S.-Brazil Defense Cooperation

Author:
E. Richard Downes
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
On the eve of the January 1, 2011, inauguration of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, the State Department noted that the United States “is committed to deepening our relationship on a wide range of bilateral, regional and global issues with Brazil's government and people.” President Rousseff herself declared shortly thereafter, “We will preserve and deepen the relationship with the United States.” During President Barack Obama's March 2011 visit to Brazil, both leaders cited “the progress achieved on defense issues in 2010” and stated their commitment to “follow up on the established dialogue in this area, primarily on new opportunities for cooperation.” While these rhetorical commitments are important, will they lead to greater cooperation on defense issues and improve U.S.-Brazil ties?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Emerging Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Brazil, and Latin America

16. Deforestation's Challenge to Green Growth in Brazil

Author:
Benjamin S. Allen, Charles Travers, and Louise Travers
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Understanding Brazil's green growth and emissions story requires a second look. Brazil's energy matrix is approximately 46% renewable, so when one compares the share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy in Brazil to that of most OECD countries, Brazil is doing relatively well (IPEA 2010, 133). However, looking at energy alone misses the core GHG story in Brazil: The principal drivers of GHG emissions in the country are not energy production or heavy industry, but rather deforestation and agriculture. Deforestation is responsible for about 55% of Brazil's GHG emissions, and agriculture for another 25% (McKinsey Company 2009, 7). In fact, the two areas of emissions are intimately linked: deforestation is principally a problem of agriculture. Cattle ranching and soybean and sugar cane farming are the major industries contributing to Brazil's emergence today as an agricultural and agroenergy superpower – and are directly and indirectly responsible for deforestation in Brazil's largest forests, the Amazon and Atlantic (Banco Mundial 2010, Barros 2009, Margulis 2004, McAllister 2008b, Nassar 2009, Nepstad et al. 2008, Sennes and Narciso 2009). By extension, because Brazil's large and growing renewable energy sector is principally based on agriculture, it has ties to deforestation and may not be as green as it first appears.
Topic:
Agriculture, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

17. Hydrocarbons in the Amazon: Awakening Old Inequalities

Author:
Patricia Vasquez
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Private oil companies invested $800 million in Peru in 2009 alone, and another $1 billion is planned for investments in natural gas developments between 2010-20131, as Peru is rapidly on its way to becoming Latin America's first exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Social Stratification, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Peru

18. Growing Pains in Latin America: An Economic Growth Framework as Applied to Brazil, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Before the global economic crisis began in 2008, all countries in Latin America, long known as the world's most economically and financially volatile region, had experienced five consecutive years of economic growth, a feat that had not been achieved since the 1970s. Yet despite this growth, Latin America's incomeper-capita gap relative to high-income countries and other emerging-market economies widened, and poverty remained stubbornly high. Latin America, in short, suffered from growing pains even when things were going reasonably well.
Topic:
Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, Latin America, Mexico, Costa Rica, and Peru

19. Brazil's Rise as an Emerging Power: Implications for the U.S. and Europe

Author:
Stefan A. Schirm
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
The last 20 years have witnessed the economic emergence of several countries, which are considered today to be “pivotal states”, “regional powers”, and “emerging powers” in world politics. These emerging powers encompass countries such as China, India, Brazil and Russia, (the BRICs), which have in common both that they have experienced rapid economic growth and that they seek to influence the global economy and world politics to a greater degree than they did before their rise. The BRICs have become leading exporters and lenders (especially China to the US) as well as holders of currency reserves, and they (plus Mexico) are expected to surpass the GNP of the G7 industrialized countries by the year 2040. The reasons for the assignment of a new role, and often of increased power, to these states are their demographic and geographic size, their economic and military capacities, and their political aspirations.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, India, Brazil, and Latin America

20. Telesur : Estrategia geopolítica con fines integracionistas

Author:
Andrés Cañizález and Jairo Lugo
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
This article discusses the project of Telesur in the context of regional integration in Latin America and geopolitical confrontation with the US. The article considers the way in which confrontation between President Hugo Chávez's administration and the United States has made geopolitics a fundamental part of this telecommunications project. It discusses the validity of comparing Telesur to other broadcasters such as Al-Jazeera and EuroNews. Although is still too soon to provide an assessment of the viability of the channel, it is already possible to foresee that it will face in the near future a series of challenges that will reshape its nature and that of its audiences.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Latin America