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51. The Arctic and Natural Gas in Northeast Asia’s Energy Future

Author:
Isabella Mroczkowski and L. C. Russell Hsiao
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The International Energy Outlook 2011 published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that world energy consumption will grow by 53 percent from 2008 to 2035. Asia’s rapidly growing economies will be the primary drivers of increasing global energy demand. By 2035, China’s and India’s combined energy use are projected to account for 31 percent of total world energy consumption. If current projections hold, by some estimates natural gas may make up to 60 percent of the region’s energy mix by 2035. New shipping routes and energy supplies in the Arctic have the potential to multiply the utility of gas in the region’s future energy mix.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Gas
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, Northeast Asia, Arctic, and United States of America

52. BRICS, Energy and the New World Order

Author:
Stein Sundstol Eriksen, Sverre Lodgaard, Arne Melchior, Karl M. Rich, Elana Wilson Rowe, and Ole Jacob Sending
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
When a Goldman Sachs executive introduced the ‘BRIC’ (Brazil, Russia, India, China) acronym in 2001, it was an innovative move, since continued success could not be taken for granted for all of the countries: only China and India had sustained high growth in the 1990s. Time has shown that the bet was a safe one: the BRIC constellation has been a rising star. In 2010, the category expanded to BRICS with the inclusion of South Africa, thereby covering all the major developing continents. BRICS is still in the making as an institution, but it may be here to stay, with annual summits held since 2009 and a stronger role in global governance through the G-20. In the geopolitics of energy, the BRICS play several roles, with increasing weight and significance. As large nations with rapid growth, the BRICS are increasingly important as suppliers or consumers of energy (Chapter 1). As emerging economies, they are part of a broader process of reallocation in the world economy, with a ‘New World Order’ emerging and energy affected via GDP growth, new trade patterns and transport-related energy demand (Chapter 2). In this emerging new order, the BRICS are also challenging the old powers in the field of security, and Chapter 3 examines the related implications for energy. While the old world was – at least in the economic field – a ‘hub-and-spoke’ system with Western Europe and North America at the core, a new pattern is emerging with increasing interaction along the rim. As an illustration of these new patterns, Chapter 4 examines the role of China and India in Africa, with the focus on energy and governance. With respect to timing, the focus on the giants rather than the dwarfs may have been a product of its era: Until 1980, there was broad development among poor nations, but the last two decades of the 20th century were a story of two tracks: a minority of important developing nations forging ahead and succeeding, and a large number of failures, especially in Africa. Perhaps that was why G-77 was no longer so much fun, and the rise of the giants seemed a more appealing concept. BRICS are large middle-income countries on the way up. The group is perceived, and perceives itself, as a symbol of development and the emerging world, challenging the ‘old world’. Is this perception true? has there really been a ‘decline of the West’? and have the BRICS been leading this change?
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

53. Japan's alliance diversification: a comparative analysis of the Indian and Australian strategic partnerships

Author:
Thomas S. Wilkins
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
As part of its movement toward 'normal country' status, Japan has begun to engage in a policy of alliance/alignment restructuring and diversification. This is a twin-track policy – the reconfiguration of existing allied relationships and the creation of new cooperative bilateral links. In recent years, Tokyo has deepened its ties with the United States and Australia on the one hand, while cultivating new partners such as India, as well as several Southeast Asian states. This article examines the nature and dynamics of two of the most important new strategic partnerships: India and Australia. Through a comparative analysis, it seeks to account for their formation, structure, and prospects using a specifically designed model of 'strategic partnership' drawn from Organizational Theories literature. It concludes that these strategic partnerships represent a major platform of a more robust and comprehensive security policy on the part of Japan, forged in response to a shifting international environment in the Asia-Pacific region.
Topic:
Climate Change
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, India, Australia, Tokyo, Southeast Asia, and Asia-Pacific

54. China and India: More Cooperation than competition in Energy and Climate Change

Author:
Tofiq Siddiqi
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Energy and climate change are two important areas in which there is much more cooperation than competition between China and India. After a few years of trying to outbid each other for oil and gas exploration and production licenses, both have found it more productive to bid jointly for many such contracts. Even though neither China nor India has agreed to limits on their emissions of greenhouse gases, both are committed to reducing the carbon intensity of their development, by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 for China, and 20 to 25 percent over the same time period for India. To achieve these goals, the two countries have launched major programs to install power plants using renewable energy sources and nuclear energy, and to increase the efficiency of energy use. It is unlikely that either China or India will agree to absolute reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from their present levels soon, but they may be willing to cap them at future levels that still permit their future per capita income to become comparable to that of countries in Western Europe. At the recently concluded United Nations Climate Change Conference in Cancun, China was strongly supportive of a continuation of the Kyoto Protocol for a second commitment period, but India indicated that it may be willing to explore other approaches suggested by the United States, the EU and small island nations. Though their paths to addressing climate change may begin to differ, it is highly likely that China and India will continue to share the same strategic goal of achieving parity with the West in terms of standard of living of their populations, even if it means higher emissions for another decade or two.
Topic:
Climate Change and Oil
Political Geography:
China, India, and Western Europe

55. Who Drives Change? Comparing the Evolution of Domestic Climate Governance in India and South Africa

Author:
Babette Never
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper compares and contrasts the nature and scope of change in the domestic climate governance of India and South Africa between 2007 and 2010. It uses an actor-centered approach to analyze the drivers of change. An exploratory test of fit shows that the concept of "communities of practice" captures the trends and actor relations well for the South African case, while more simple networks could be identified in India. Using data from an expert survey and from semi-structured interviews, this paper finds that both countries have generally not yet surpassed the level of second-order change, or double-loop learning. Differences exist for more specific parts of climate governance. Three resulting hypotheses give conditions for the development of either communities of practice or of networks, as conceptualized in formal network analysis. They target (1) the number of participating actors, (2) the size of the scientific landscape and the degree of competition among scientists, and (3) the centrality of a governmental actor with a certain knowledge and attitude within a network.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, India, and South Africa

56. Global Energy Markets in a Time of Political Change

Author:
Bill White
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
A shift in relative energy consumption among regions and the development of new, unconventional supplies will be the most significant changes over the next twenty years. The dominant fuels in the world energy market until 2030 will continue to be hydrocarbons — oil, coal, and natural gas. Major shifts will occur, however, among the three fuels, among regions and in their supply. Globally, oil will continue to be the most widely used fuel as it supplies more than 90 percent of the energy for transportation. Coal, now the dominant fuel used for electric power generation, will lose ground to natural gas, a less carbon-intensive hydrocarbon. Natural gas will become the second largest overall supplier and well positioned to replace coal as the leading supplier for electric power. Developing countries will lead the way in overall energy growth, with Chinese and Indian energy demand growing fastest. Energy demand in developed countries will remain flat. For the United States, growth in gas shale and oil shale are likely to be “game changers,” altering the supply picture dramatically.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

57. Environmental diplomacy: Saving the Sundarbans and restoring the India-Bangladesh relationship

Author:
Shloka Nath
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Gateway House’s Shloka Nath examines the causes of disagreements between India and Bangladesh, and makes recommendations to resolve them – which can lead to an intelligent management and protection of the Sunderbans. In January 2010, Jairam Ramesh, then India’s energetic Environment Minister, while on a visit to Kolkata, displayed once again his penchant for the big idea. Together with his counterpart from Bangladesh, he announced both countries were joining hands to protect the Sundarbans from environmental degradation and stated that the proposed Indo-Bangladesh Sundarbans Eco-System Forum, which is currently in the planning stages, will be made functional by the second half of 2011. In October 2010, a draft protocol to be signed by both nations was approved by the Bangladesh cabinet at a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Using bilateral environmental concerns to foster broader regional cooperation is an innovative idea and the first of its kind for India and Bangladesh. For both countries, this is a unique foreign policy opportunity. In an exclusive interview with Gateway House in September 2010, Ramesh said, “Environmental diplomacy and environmental cooperation can often be triggers for enhancing broader regional cooperation. It helps to build trust, gets your people working with each other, learning from each other, and breaking down barriers. I hope to see more of this going forward.” The timing of the statement could not have been better; if the aspiration of Jairam Ramesh can be realised, not only will the fractious Indo-Bangla relationship be repaired, but the Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest spanning a vast territory of over 10,000 sq. km. can also be saved. Sitting on the sensitive border between India and Bangladesh, the Sundarbans is one of the most endangered eco-systems in the world. Approximately 60 percent lies in Bangladesh and 40 percent in India. The problems that surround it have the potential to advance the relationship between these two important South Asian neighbours; given the magnitude of the difficulties, the converse is equally true.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Water, Refugees, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and India

58. The EU and the global climate regime: Getting back in the game

Author:
Anna Korppoo, Thomas Spencer, and Kristian Tangen
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Copenhagen climate summit was seen as a set-back for the eu. It was left out of the final meeting between the usa and major developing countries which lead to the Copenhagen Accord, and had to accept a deal that fell below its expectations. Due to the impact of the economic crisis, the eu's current target of a unilateral 20 % reduction is no longer as impressive as it seemed in 2007–2008; this is undermining the eu's claim to leadership. In order to match the higher pledges of Japan, Australia and the us, as well as shoulder its fair share of the industrialized countries' aggregate 30 % reduction, the eu would have to pledge a 35 % reduction. The eu's practise of attaching conditionalities to its higher target gives it very little leverage. However, there might be a case for the eu to move unilaterally to a 30 % reduction in order to accelerate the decarbonisation of its economy and capture new growth markets. Doing so could support stronger policy development in other countries such as Australia and Japan, and help rebuild trust among developing countries. But on its own it would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on the position of the other big players—the usa, China, India, and Brazil. The incoherence of the eu's support of a “singe legal outcome” from the Copenhagen summit, based on the elements of the Kyoto Protocol, was a major cause for its isolation. The us remains domestically unable to commit to this type of a ratifiable treaty while developing countries are not yet ready to commit to absolute targets. A return to a two-track approach, involving the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol and the negotiation of a new instrument for the usa and major developing countries, may be a more politically and practically feasible approach, while retaining the goal of working towards a legally binding instrument for all key participants over time.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, India, Brazil, and Australia

59. The Political Economy of India's Climate Agenda

Author:
Noriko Fujiwara
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This Working Document complements the CEPS Policy Brief, Understanding India's climate agenda, and elaborates on three key issues related to the country's energy challenges: access to energy, the future emissions trajectory and energy subsidies. This study looks into the making and framing of the country's domestic climate agenda from a political economy perspective. As long as both GDP and primary energy demand keep growing at the current rates, it may be concluded that the country's future, absolute greenhouse-gas emissions are also likely to grow but remain relatively low. Moreover, India's emissions intensity is expected to continue declining in line with the recent voluntary pledge by the Indian government. The study takes note of the national action plan launched in India, and the adoption of a flexible approach in international negotiations while maintaining a preference for several core principles, including equity. Lastly, the study explores the possibility for addressing issues such as international and intra-national equity in the context of the long-term EU–Indian partnership.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
India

60. Understanding India's Climate Agenda

Author:
Christian Egenhofer and Noriko Fujiwara
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
India has become an important partner for the EU in both multilateral and bilateral relations in a wide range of policy areas, including energy and climate change. Despite the strategic importance of this partnership, there may be insufficient awareness and understanding among EU stakeholders a bout India's development needs and challenges, its high degree of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and the actions it has taken domestically and in international fora to address climate change. The country is among those rapidly and steadily growing economies with an increasing share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, although it starts from a very low emissions base.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
India