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2. MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0
- Author:
- Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, Houssein Guimbard, Cristina Mitaritonna, Balthazar de Vaulchier, and Yu Zheng
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- MIRAGE is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, initially devoted to trade policy analysis and more recently applied to long-term growth and environmental issues. It incorporates energy, carbon pricing, imperfect competition, and rigid investment allocation, in a sequential dynamic setup where installed capital is assumed to be immobile. The model provides trade analysis with detailed treatment of trade costs and Armington specifications, drawing upon a detailed measure of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Production features nested CES functions with capital-energy bundles under both perfect and imperfect competition frameworks, while final demand follows a LES-CES utility function. The sequential dynamic framework enables longterm simulations by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic projections from the MaGE model. The most recent version offers significant improvements in electricity sector modeling with renewable energy representation, base-load and peak-load dinstinctions, and detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. This documentation provides complete technical specifications, calibration procedures, and implementation guidelines for researchers and policymakers using MIRAGE for economic policy analysis.
- Topic:
- Environment, Trade Policy, Carbon Emissions, MIRAGE, and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Energy Data Spaces and Market Power: a new challenge for data sovereignty and its governance
- Author:
- Emanuele Giovannetti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how the digitalisation of energy markets, driven by smart meter data and Energy Data Spaces, is reshaping competition in retail electricity services. It analyses the implications for market power, consumer outcomes, and data sovereignty, highlighting the regulatory challenges posed by data-driven business models that operate across national boundaries.
- Topic:
- Markets, Governance, Regulation, Digitalization, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
4. Variables of War
- Author:
- Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- This essay argues that wars do not result from immutable human nature but from political motives, cultural dispositions, and calculations of military opportunity. Wars are, therefore, preventable. The essay presents a succinct causal model of war’s outbreak. The formal causal argument: War’s outbreak is treated as the dependent variable; the independent variable is a mix of expansionist or preventive motives and a supportive war culture that glorifies offensive action and soldierly virtues (the “cult of the offensive”). Because such motives and cultures often do not lead to war, a further “sufficient condition” is posited: leaders must judge that a rapid victory is feasible, casualties acceptable, and domestic opposition manageable, typically by identifying structural vulnerabilities or “open flanks” in the opponent’s posture. This feasibility variable is an intermediate link between motives/culture and war and is filtered through perceptions often distorted by ideology, institutional dysfunction, or poor intelligence.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, War, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. How IPLCs Can Leverage BRICS for Inclusive Environmental Governance
- Author:
- Metolo Foyet
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs)face a pivotal chance to influence the emerging governance architecture of the BRICS+ alliance.Western-led frameworks (UNFCCC, CBD) recognize Indigenous rights but still struggle withimplementation. BRICS, representing over half the world’s population and major biodiversity,offers an alternative platform to advance plural knowledge systems and South–South solidarity. This brief proposes embedding Indigenous leadership within BRICS institutions, aligning newnorms with UNDRIP and ILO 169, and creating financial and knowledge instruments that sustaincommunity-led conservation. The goal is shared sovereignty in environmental decision-making,not token participation. The central question is whether BRICS can evolve from a geopolitical and financial bloc into a rights-based governance platform where IPLCs become co-architects ofglobal environmental policy, and whether multipolar governance can close implementation gapsby embedding Indigenous authority at the design stage.
- Topic:
- Environment, Governance, Indigenous, BRICS, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. The means of prediction and the production function of AI
- Author:
- Maximilian Kasy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
- Abstract:
- The real AI governance challenge: Who gets to decide what AI systems optimize for? Current debates miss that AI conflicts are between different groups of people, not humans vs. machines. Power flows from control of AI inputs: Those who control the means of prediction (data, computing power, expertise, and energy) determine AI objectives. Current governance approaches fail: Individual privacy rights and market mechanisms can’t address AI’s collective harms and benefits. Democratic control is the solution: Give stakeholders affected by AI decisions a voice in setting AI objectives.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, and Prediction
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Structural dependencies and choke points in GVCs: An industry-level analysis
- Author:
- Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- Global value chains (GVCs) are intricate international networks in which the production and distribution of goods and services across multiple economies and industries is coordinated. Their complexity introduces strategic dependencies when economies or industries rely heavily on a limited number of foreign suppliers. Such dependencies can also create additional vulnerabilities, particularly at choke points (i.e. key links or nodes in the chain) whose disruption – whether due to political instability and geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, pandemics or policy shocks and trade restrictions – can halt production. This study builds on previous research by examining two factors: (i) size dependencies arising when an importing economy-industry pair relies largely on the inputs of a partner economies, and (ii) choke dependencies, where imports from one economy pass through another, creating potential choke points. Choke dependency is particularly concerning, as disruptions in the choke economy can impact not only its direct exports but also the flow of goods from other suppliers. Using the multi-country input-output tables (MC IOTs), this study introduces two indicators to assess dependencies: (i) ‘size dependency’, based on the share of an economy-industry’s foreign output sourced from a specific partner, and (2) ‘choke dependency’, based on the pass-through frequency (ptf) indicator, which reveals how often inputs from third economies are routed through a particular partner. An economy-industry pair is considered dependent if it meets thresholds for size dependency, choke dependency or both. This comprehensive approach aims to offer a deeper understanding of systemic vulnerabilities in global trade networks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Global Value Chains, Vulnerability, Dependency, and Choke Points
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8. Criterios para una fiscalidad saludable: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar
- Author:
- Julio César Muñiz Pérez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar La forma en que compramos y consumimos alimentos está cambiando, y la fiscalidad se ha convertido en una importante herramienta para promover la salud pública. Sin embargo, ¿Está funcionando adecuadamente la tributación actual sobre la alimentación? Recientemente hemos publicado un informe que analiza cómo debe diseñarse una «fiscalidad saludable» que sea verdaderamente efectiva, coherente con la normativa europea y justa para el consumidor. Lo que descubrirás en este informe: Ingredientes, no productos: Por qué habría que poner el acento en el “ingrediente objetivo” y no en penalizar categorías completas de alimentos. El IVA como mejor alternativa: Las ventajas de usar tramos de IVA diferenciados según el etiquetado, frente al empleo impuestos especiales. Evidencia vs. Recaudación: La necesidad de evaluar si estas medidas son eficaces para mejorar la salud o si solo generan un rechazo social. El papel de la industria: Cómo la colaboración y la innovación (I+D+i) pueden ser tanto o más eficaces que la simple aplicación de impuestos
- Topic:
- Political Science, Legislation, Public Policy, Public Health, Sugar, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9. Universidad dual: Formación innovativa para el futuro profesional
- Author:
- Vicent Climent-Ferrando
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- El dinámico mercado laboral actual exige una formación universitaria más ágil y relevante. A menudo, la evolución curricular de las universidades no sigue el ritmo de la innovación empresarial, generando una brecha entre la academia y las necesidades del sector productivo. La Universidad Dual surge como una solución clave, integrando la formación académica con la experiencia práctica en empresas. Este modelo no solo impulsa la actualización de los currículos, sino que también eleva la empleabilidad de los estudiantes al ofrecerles un entorno de aprendizaje real y aplicado. Sin embargo, su implementación presenta desafíos importantes: asegurar la calidad educativa, invertir en la capacitación del personal docente en las empresas y garantizar el equilibrio entre el estudio y el trabajo para los estudiantes. Desde Fundación Alternativas, abordamos estos retos. Presentamos un Policy Paper y una jornada de debate dedicados a analizar en profundidad el modelo de formación dual universitaria. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar su estado actual y proponer recomendaciones de política pública que faciliten su adopción progresiva, minimizando los riesgos asociados a esta transformación.
- Topic:
- Education, Markets, Labor Issues, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
10. Myths of Modern History: From the French Revolution to the 20th Century World Wars and the Cold War
- Author:
- Klevis Kolasi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Abstract:
- Jacques R. Pauwels’ Myths of Modern History offers a bold and accessible critique of the dominant narratives shaping our understanding of modern history, from the French Revolution to the present. As the culmination of the author’s acclaimed trilogy (The Great Class War 1914–1918, The Myth of the Good War, and Big Business and Hitler), this work provides a concise counter-history of twelve key events, analyzed in twelve chapters, that have helped define the modern world. Pauwels deconstructs myths perpetuated by the media, elites, and conventional historiography —myths that promote a sanitized and benevolent view of capitalism’s role. In doing so, he challenges readers to reconsider historical processes and their systemic causes.
- Topic:
- Cold War, War, History, Capitalism, Book Review, and French Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
11. Digital labor opportunities and (im)mobility: steps for making digital remote work a global possibility
- Author:
- Charles Martin-Shields
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief offers advice for making digital remote work a viable solution to fill labor gaps without requiring workers to physically relocate. From a technology standpoint, there is no reason someone who does computer-based work must physically relocate, assuming they have the required job skills and internet connectivity. The increased use of bilateral labor agreements (BLAs) between countries is evidence that there are major skills gaps and global competition for labor. Indeed, a BLA can serve as a “policy sandbox” where governments negotiate the legal and statutory terms of digital remote work. Digital remote work can be an especially useful solution when the country providing labor has a large pool of people who are willing to work and fill labor pool gaps in countries of employment, but for different legal or personal reasons cannot relocate across borders. This latter point is no small thing: there is a significant body of migration research showing that the majority of people are not interested in moving across borders – or in the case of many refugees are unable to do so. The reasons for this are myriad. Digital labor could be a workaround to meet basic labor demand and facilitate economic inclusion. The word “could” is critical because banking, social and health insurance, and taxation, all of which are components of legal employment, remain bordered. This policy brief will focus on a specific case from research on urban refugee livelihoods where the worker was able to work digitally in the US from Malaysia, while being subject to social security, taxation and insurance in the US The idiosyncrasies in this case help point to spaces for reforming social security, tax and insurance rules to reduce their “bordered-ness” and make digital work more systematically viable. Key policy messages: • To make digital remote work viable at scale, development cooperation agencies should play a key facilitator role, linking relevant authorities in the tax, social insurance and banking regulation sectors. This is especially important for refugees who often cannot move and who fall outside the protection of host country labor laws. These reforms could, for example, be built into BLAs. • Achieving inclusive economic development goals via digital employment would require that remote workers earn competitive salaries. Thus, there would need to be buy-in from the private sector regarding wage competitiveness for workers in different countries, as well as a role for unions and civil society in negotiating digital remote work policy. • While digital work can enable greater economic and labor participation for workers who cannot relocate for jobs, there are still sectors that require physical presence. Thus, digital remote work is not a replacement for immigration policy that facilitates safe and flexible migration for those people who do have to move.
- Topic:
- Development, Labor Issues, Employment, Remote Work, and Digital Employment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
12. Competencies to help shape a changing world: tracer study and future focus of the IDOS Postgraduate Program for Sustainability Cooperation
- Author:
- Simone Christ, Sven Grimm, Tülin Engin-Stock, and Isabella Schulz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The Postgraduate Program for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly DIE) has been training young professionals for German and European international cooperation since 1965. How successful is the program in supporting its graduates in starting their career and in developing their competencies? And what direction should Germany take in the future in its training for professionals in the field of international cooperation? To mark its 60th anniversary, IDOS conducted a tracer study to systematically analyze how the program has benefited its some 1,000 graduates and to find some pointers on how it could be developed further. The study very clearly demonstrates the relevance of the postgraduate program and identification with the program over the past 60 years. The feedback confirms that the PGP considerably benefits participants' professional and personal development and that they would definitely recommend it for future generations. At the same time, the world is undergoing a period of radical upheaval. Fundamental changes can be seen above all in the general conditions for partnerships, the demands made of staff working in this sector and training for future experts and managers. Training programs such as the PGP must adapt to address these drastic changes. The quality of a training program is ultimately reflected in how well it promotes basic competencies that will still be useful under different conditions and that can help shape these changes. IDOS graduates were also asked about their views on changes in working in the international cooperation sector. The survey thus allows conclusions to be drawn on how training can be developed further: 1. Training should promote various competencies that can shape cooperation for sustainable development. Taking a partner-oriented approach to initiating and implementing changes in an increasingly complex world requires both specialist and systemic knowledge along with personal, social, networking and cooperation skills. 2. Training institutions should promote the capacity for cooperation through joint learning with international partners. This will foster understanding for other perspectives and will support the ongoing development of partnerships. 3. Post-colonial perspectives and a critical examination of power should already be taken into account during training and should be put into practice in concrete cooperation between organizations. IDOS graduates also believe that these aspects are becoming more important in international cooperation.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Training, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
13. Genocide and the Courts: A Brief Review of Jurisprudence on the Crime of Genocide from Nuremberg to Today
- Author:
- David J. Scheffer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- In this January 2026 report, Genocide and the Courts: A Brief Review of Jurisprudence on the Crime of Genocide from Nuremberg to Today, Ambassador David Scheffer narrates how courts around the world, and over decades, have understood the crime of genocide. Published 80 years after the start of the Nuremberg trials, this report takes readers through court judgments that have grappled with questions of intent, protected groups, prohibited acts, and individual and state responsibility. We hope that teachers, students, and others will benefit from this concise summary of how courts have addressed questions about the definition of genocide over time. Over the past eight decades, “genocide” has gone from being an idea in Raphael Lemkin’s mind to being a universally recognized international crime, accompanied by a growing body of jurisprudence. Judicial rulings have been a critical means of addressing ambiguities about the definition of genocide that are found in the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Courts have gone a long way toward clarifying, for example, what must be established to find that a genocidal “intent to destroy” has been present. Reviewing the history of how courts have ruled on genocide cases, is therefore an important way to promote greater understanding of the meaning of this singular crime. The report begins with the Nuremberg trials—where judgments regarding Nazi war crimes and crimes against humanity during the Holocaust laid a foundation for future understanding of genocide—and the United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which codified the crime. Mass atrocities in the second half of the 20th century devastated millions, from Cambodia and Guatemala to Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and the report describes how trials grappling with those crimes refocused our understanding of genocide. As important as understanding past jurisprudence around genocide is, Ambassador Scheffer makes clear that it does not supplant the importance of working to prevent and effectively respond to genocide. We hope that this resource will not only deepen readers’ understanding of genocide but also inspire people to rededicate themselves to ending this horrible scourge.
- Topic:
- Genocide, International Law, Courts, Holocaust, Jurisprudence, and Nuremberg
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
14. Quantum Technologies and the Geostrategic Landscape: Implications for Finance and Central Banks
- Author:
- Tracey Forrest, Paul Samson, S. Yash Kalash, and Michael P. A. Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Quantum technologies, and quantum computing in particular, could completely reshape the integrity of today’s financial markets. Both through risk and opportunity channels, quantum computing is changing the game and raising the stakes. Cracking today’s cryptographic standards would undermine global payment systems and digital assets, causing the potential collapse of all current encryption systems, while quantum-enabled advances in optimization and modelling may dramatically enhance economic forecasting, monetary policy and planning. “Quantum readiness” is the next necessary step for any nation wanting to both stay safe from these projected dangers and also to make the most of the potential benefits. This special report aims to provide a situational analysis of quantum technologies useful for senior G7 (and beyond) decision makers in finance and central banking. By examining the current landscape, as well as several scenarios, the authors outline key implications for strategic planning and action for consideration by policy leaders around the world. They structure their suggested priority interventions across three tiers: national, international and public-private collaboration, with actionable recommendations across each level.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Banking, Financial Governance, and Quantum Computing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
15. Intellectual Property Amid Trade Tensions
- Author:
- Jeremy de Beer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Intellectual property (IP) is a key asset in the modern economy, and just like any asset, it’s influencing trade flows, investment, and economic value, especially as digital and intangible transactions grow. It’s often said that Canada is facing an IP trade deficit, but that claim is seldom documented statistically. CIGI Senior Fellow Jeremy de Beer changes that in this special report, building a stronger evidence base for IP-related trade policy. Through examining three possible scenarios for the future of IP as a trade asset (rebalancing, renegotiation and restructuring), the report identifies four strategic priorities for Canada to consider: strengthening Canada’s statistical evidence base for IP policy making; using domestic and international legal flexibilities responsibly and in coordination with allies; reclaiming policy space in trade negotiations; and recalibrating innovation and industrial policy at home.
- Topic:
- Intellectual Property/Copyright, Economy, Trade, and Transactions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16. The Humanitarian Emergency Dilemma: Exploring the Consequences of Financial Cuts on Relief Efforts and At-Risk Communities
- Author:
- Calistus Abang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Funding freezes are one of the challenges prominent in the humanitarian world today, with grave consequences for programs aiding people in urgent need and beyond. Using critical discourse analysis, this study looks at the paradox of the humanitarian crisis and funding freeze, drawing on secondary data. Qualitative analysis of aid funding data, including funding in need, shows how the freeze affects the disbursement of funds and their intended recipients. It becomes visibly apparent that the freeze has multifaceted effects: stripping power from the already powerless, belittling the capacities of the neglected, pausing a system that is undermined, and hastening an erosion of trust in the institution of humanitarianism. Disproportionately, the system greatly impacts the most vulnerable, which suggests it is anything but neutral. This study confronts the glaring paradox and discusses its far-reaching implications. These implications concerning research, policy, programming, and humanitarianism paradox will, in the end, save lives.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Vulnerability, and Funding Freeze
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. Nature-based Solutions for a Sustainable Critical Minerals Value Chain
- Author:
- Lara Fornabaio, Sara Saloum, Perrine Toledano, and Kirsten Hund
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Critical minerals production is essential for a net-zero future yet mining land footprint overlaps with sensitive ecosystems: of the sector’s 101,583 square kilometers of mining concessions, 7% are in biodiversity hotspots, 8% are in protected areas, and 16% are in “wilderness” areas of high ecological integrity. The value chains of mining operations “both depend on and impact nature” (ICMM, 2024), creating a responsibility for mining actors to manage and mitigate the impacts of operations on the landscape. This responsibility includes addressing nature loss, supporting the well-being of communities, and contributing to the resilience of ecosystems. Nature-based solutions (NbS), which are based on the idea that healthy ecosystems deliver valuable services to society, offer one method of working towards these goals
- Topic:
- Mining, Sustainability, Value Chains, Net Zero, Critical Minerals, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
18. Sufficiency for All - Exploring Small-Scale, Low-Tech, Pro-Poor Initiatives
- Author:
- John Donaldson and Nick Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- February 19, 2026 — Professor John Donaldson discusses an alternative “small works” approach to poverty reduction that highlights slower, more sustainable growth and challenges dominant assumptions about scale, technology, and well-being. Speaker: John Donaldson, Associate Professor of Political Science at the School of Social Sciences, Singapore Management University (SMU), researches politics, rural development and poverty reduction in China and around the world. He primarily focuses on the disconnect between economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as sustainable poverty reduction. In addition to numerous other academic and policy publications, he is the author of "Small Works: Poverty and Economic Development in Southwestern China" (Cornell University Press, 2011). Moderator: Nick Smith, Assistant Professor of Architecture and Urban Studies, Barnard College.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Science and Technology, Economic Growth, Well-Being, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
19. AI and Democracy: Mapping the Intersections
- Author:
- Rachel George and Ian Klaus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- AI poses substantial threats and opportunities for democracy in an important year ahead for global democracy. Despite the threats, AI technologies can also improve representative politics, citizen participation, and governance. AI influences democracy through multiple entry points, including elections, citizen deliberation, government services, and social cohesion, all of which are influenced by geopolitics and security. All of these domains, mapped in this paper, face threats related to influence, integrity, and bias, yet also present opportunities for targeted interventions. The current field of interventions at the intersection of AI and democracy is diverse, fragmented, and boutique. Not all AI interventions with the potential to influence democracy are framed as “democracy work,” demonstrating the imperative for democracy advocates to widen the rhetorical aperture and to continue to map, identify, and scale interventions. Diverse actors who are relevant to the connections between AI and democracy require tailored expertise and guardrails to maximize benefits and reduce harms. We present four prominent constellations of actors who operate at the AI–democracy intersection: policy-led, technology-enabled; politics-led, technology-enabled; civil society–led, technology-enabled; and technology-led, policy-deployed. Though each brings advantages, policy-led and technology-led interventions tend to have access to resources and innovation capacity in ways that enable more immediate and sizable impacts.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Democracy, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
20. This Warming Planet Should Learn How to Talk About Migration
- Author:
- Alejandro Martin Rodriguez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The places where people can live—with or without dignity—are changing. Extreme heat, droughts, floods, coastal erosion, and sea level rise, among other climate impacts, are reducing the area of the human climate niche, that is, the part of the world most suited for human life. Regardless of how much societies reduce their carbon dioxide emissions today, the locked-in effects of climate change will continue to impact them for decades, if not centuries. In this context, the World Bank estimates that more than 200 million people globally could be forced to leave their homes by 2050. Governments all over the world must design and deliver effective policy responses to the risks associated with this large-scale movement of people. However, policymakers are limited in their options by the prevalence of misinformed narratives on migration (see box 1) that can make the sensible policy paths seem unattainable.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Mobility, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
21. Getting Debt Sustainability Analysis Right: Eight Reforms for the Framework for Low-Income Countries
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Assessing the sustainability of developing countries’ debt is an essential task of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, but it is also a controversial one. The two institutions are currently reviewing the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries (abbreviated as LIC-DSF). This paper provides a primer on the framework’s basic elements, an overview of critiques from a variety of perspectives, and analysis of selected issues, including the endogeneity of analysis of sustainability, analysis of debtors’ institutional strength, analysis of domestic political conditions, role and exercise of staff judgment, and collaboration between the World Bank and the IMF. The paper recommends eight improvements, including streamlining the institutional indicators, better separating economic analysis from political judgment, adopting certain procedures for applying judgment, and selectively introducing climate considerations.
- Topic:
- Debt, World Bank, Sustainability, IMF, and Global Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
22. The migration debate on the streets: Four key things to know from global data on protests
- Author:
- Kieran Doyle and Ciro Murillo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has sent shockwaves across the United States. Far-reaching detention operations across the country led by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents have sparked thousands of anti-ICE and pro-migrant protests. In early January 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) massively expanded “Operation Metro Surge” in Minnesota, making it the agency’s largest-ever operation. Within three weeks, federal migration enforcement officers shot and killed two people in incidents that were recorded from multiple angles by bystanders in videos that quickly went viral. These shootings inflamed already heightened tensions between demonstrators and law enforcement agents and triggered hundreds of anti-ICE protests across the country. As the operation continues despite Trump’s promise of “de-escalation,” and amid a fresh ICE operation in Maine, it’s clear that the fight over migration in the US is far from finished.1 The situation in the United States is not unique – these protests represent a fraction of the larger picture of demonstrations over migration worldwide. ACLED records migration-related demonstrations in over 75 countries since the beginning of 2025. From peaceful demonstrations to episodes of violence perpetrated by radical groups, sentiments toward migration manifest differently across regional and political contexts. ACLED’s protest data provide four key insights on surges in pro- and anti-migration mobilization. These findings reflect how migration demonstrations are a global phenomenon – albeit much more concentrated in major destination countries – and point to how migration and migration crackdowns play a role in polarizing societies around the world.
- Topic:
- Migration, Protests, Political Extremism, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
23. GR&P Seminar: The Impact of Global Change on Food Trade Vulnerability and Food Security
- Author:
- Kenneth Strzepek and Gregory Sixt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- International food trade has become essential for global food security, with over 40% of staple foods traded internationally. However, interconnected food networks are vulnerable to climatic, economic, and geopolitical shocks. This event will discuss the new MIT Jameel Index for Food Trade and Vulnerability, a comprehensive index linking food trade exposure to national resilience. Developed to inform evidence-based policymaking, the Jameel Index offers new insights into which countries are most at risk from disruptions in food trade and how global food systems can be strengthened. The seminar will present findings from projections of economic, population, and climate change impacts on food trade vulnerability for 2035 and 2050, and discuss their policy implications for addressing growing food insecurity in a volatile geopolitical and climate landscape. Kenneth Strzepek, PhD, is a Climate, Water, and Food Specialist and a Research Scientist at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy. He is also Professor Emeritus of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Boulder at Colorado. He has worked for a range of national governments as well as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the USAID. Additionally, he holds research appointments at the International Food Policy Research Institute and at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. Gregory Sixt, PhD, directs the Food and Climate Systems Transformation (FACT) Alliance, an MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS)-led global network of leading research institutions and stakeholder organizations working to shorten the link between research and action. He also serves as Research Manager for Food and Climate Systems on various J-WAFS projects. Previously, he worked at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
- Topic:
- Food Security, Geopolitics, Trade, Supply Chains, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
24. The Renewed Promise of Hegemony
- Author:
- Sean Burges and Fabricio H. Chagas-Bastos
- Publication Date:
- 07-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Contemporary world order exhibits interdependence without a single state able to impose ordering principles unilaterally and without the hegemonic war often presumed to clear the slate. Scholarship conflates dominant power with the order it sponsors, so criticism of the liberal international order (LIO) is read as an attack on primacy. This article theorises hegemony, in Gramscian terms, as a relational ordering structure that fuses coercion, political economy, and ideas, and that endures through absorption and co-option of dissent. Challenges are incorporated through selective concessions and institutional redesign, diluting their transformative content while reiterating core principles. Our argument decouples power transition from order transition, moving debate beyond collapse versus persistence by advancing an analytically tractable account of adaptive endurance that shows how hegemonic orders renew themselves through the managed incorporation of critique into institutional reform.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Hegemony, Liberal Order, International Order, and Interdependence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
25. Ecological Federalism: Ethical Frameworks for Domestic Climate Migration
- Author:
- Preston Ferraiuolo and Kate Voltz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Moving from international climate migration to domestic climate migration within the United States, this brief argues that intensifying climate risks will increasingly motivate internal relocation. It develops a framework of ecological federalism that calls for institutionalized resettlement systems, support for communities to migrate together where possible, and protections for original residents in receiving communities.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Resettlement, and Ecological Federalism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
26. Gender and intergenerational mobility: Unequal economic outcomes between siblings
- Author:
- Martín Leites and Joan Vilá
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the role of sibling sex composition as a potential explanation of the transmission of parental advantages to the next generation. The presence of a brother affects the family environment and parents’ decisions, influencing the siblings’ labour market outcomes in the long term. The results show a negative effect of approximately 2% on the permanent income of women for the presence of a younger brother. This effect does not modify the intergenerational persistence of income. Regarding mechanisms, we find evidence that the effect is amplified when households face tighter budget constraints. Moreover, it is more pronounced in households with traditional gender norms, shaping permanent income, educational choices, and motherhood decisions. These findings underscore the importance of sociocultural mechanisms in accounting for the persistence of inequality.
- Topic:
- Occupation, Gender Norms, Social Mobility, Gender Wage Gap, Sibling Sex Composition, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
27. Standardizing carbon accounting worldwide with a single, robust, cost-effective system
- Author:
- Vincent Aussilloux, Yann Coatanlem, and Karthik Ramanna
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Developed economies aren’t just underinvesting in the climate transition—they are missing the mark by an order of magnitude. Because green financing is often characterized as underperforming, the capital they do deploy rarely reaches the projects or regions where it’s needed most. But decarbonization doesn’t have to be a synonym for “high risk.” The key to unlocking high-impact, high-return investment lies in better risk management. Measuring a project’s carbon footprint with greater accuracy will mitigate the guesswork that keeps capital on the sidelines. The authors advocate for the Climate Club, an intergovernmental decarbonization forum, to select a single, robust, and cost-effective method for computing products’ carbon footprint. The framework would provide the rigor required to significantly scale climate finance and drive energy security.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Climate Finance, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Energy, Energy Transition, and Energy Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
28. Commentary: Democracy, Democratization, Institutions, and Inequality: Nobel-Winning Insights from Daron Acemoglu and His Collaborators
- Author:
- Ali Resul Usul
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the seminal contributions of Daron Acemoglu and his collaborators to the understanding of democracy, democratization, institutions, and inequality, as recognized by the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It delves into the stability and erosion of democratic institutions, emphasizing the interplay between historical legacies, class structures, and strategic political interactions. The analysis synthesizes insights from rational choice theory, historical institutionalism, and comparative political economy, highlighting the critical role of both formal and informal institutions in shaping political outcomes. Key concepts such as critical junctures, path dependence, and the dynamic balance between state capacity and societal power— termed the “Red Queen effect”—are examined to explain the persistence and transformation of political regimes. The paper also addresses the implications of economic inequality for democratic stability and the continuous process of adaptation required to maintain inclusive institutions. By integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence, this work provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex dynamics of democratization and offers policy recommendations for strengthening democratic resilience in the face of contemporary challenges.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Path Dependence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29. Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026
- Author:
- Jessica Anania, Vicka Heidt, Anna Tuohey, and Jessica M. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- Entering 2026, the global security landscape is defined by record-high levels of armed conflict, democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and an accelerating climate crisis—dynamics unfolding alongside unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and development assistance. These converging pressures are reshaping conflict environments in ways that disproportionately endanger women and girls while eroding the systems meant to protect them, even as women remain central actors in humanitarian response, peacebuilding, and civic resistance. Women, Peace and Security: Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026 integrates gender-responsive analysis into conflict forecasting by drawing on insights from the Women, Peace and Security Conflict Tracker and expert consultations. This report identifies three cross-cutting trends expected to shape conflict dynamics in the year ahead: the increasing weaponization of hunger as a tactic of conquest and control, with devastating gendered consequences; political transitions that intensify repression, violence, and women’s exclusion at critical decision-making moments; and worsening climate shocks that compound displacement, insecurity, and economic loss for women and girls. The report also profiles 10 settings—Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel & Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela—where these dynamics are likely to be especially acute in 2026. By centering gendered risks as early warning indicators of instability, this report addresses a critical gap in mainstream conflict analysis and offers policymakers, donors, multilateral institutions, and civil society leaders a more inclusive framework for anticipating crises, protecting civilians, and advancing more durable and inclusive peace and security outcomes.
- Topic:
- Security, Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Democratic Backsliding, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and Global Focus
30. Advancing Accountability in Development Finance: The Sandra Smithey Fellowship
- Author:
- Rachel Nadelman and Anushka Bose
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
- Abstract:
- The Sandra N. Smithey Fellowship for Equity and Accountability in International Development was created to honor the career of Sandra Smithey, particularly her legacy in amplifying frontline voices that champion transparent and accountable approaches to development finance. Between 2023 and 2025, the Smithey Fellowship, administered by the Accountability Research Center (ARC) at American University, provided support to eight advocates advancing accountability in development finance. The central premise of the Fellowship is that accountability work is most effective when driven by those directly affected by development decisions and supported by flexible, trust-based funding. ARC worked with each of the fellows to define their own strategic goals and approaches within the time or resources available, seeking to ensure that each could meet the most pressing opportunities or challenges they faced. It provided them with significant flexibility to make mid-course changes to respond to political realities on the ground. The philosophy of “putting the fellows first” resulted in eight bespoke fellowships that reflected the breadth of civil society efforts to promote community- and context-based accountability in international development finance. Across these experiences, several key lessons emerge: Flexibility is a foundation for impact and sustainability. When fellows were given space to adapt to rapidly changing contexts, they achieved outcomes that rigid programs might have constrained. Altering conventional fellowship designs can change the balance in north-south knowledge hierarchies. An adaptable fellowship structure enabled some fellows to pursue their projects whilst embedded in their local communities, accessing support where their work was already taking shape. Translating knowledge can enable power shifts. Fellows who converted technical or bureaucratic language into practical tools enabled communities to engage institutions on their own terms. Collaboration is a vehicle for continuity of both projects and relationships. Collaboration among mentors, allies, and civil society organizations extended the reach of individual projects and embedded learning in broader movements. Longer-term influence depended on intentional efforts to maintain networks, communication, and financial stability after formal support ended. Enabling frontline expertise to shape accountability narratives can effectively support existing movements for rights and remedy. The fellows demonstrated that it is those closest to injustice that have the insight and credibility to define what accountability should mean in their own contexts as a basis for transformative change. This Accountability Note describes the work of these fellows and explores how a targeted package of direct funding, reflecting the fellows’ priorities and accompanied by trusted partners, enabled them to respond effectively to new and changing conditions. Ultimately, the Smithey Fellowship demonstrated that modest, well-structured support, grounded in trust, autonomy, and solidarity, can enable progress towards accountability and enable advocates to define and pursue their own paths in building durable movements for justice.
- Topic:
- Accountability, Sustainability, Fellowships, and Development Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
31. The Under-theorisation of Dollar Dominance
- Author:
- Photis Lysandrou
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- The recent period has seen an upsurge in predictions that the dollar's international dominance will at some point be challenged by a rival currency, notably the euro. This paper counters these predictions. It argues that the overestimation of the euro's ability to challenge dollar dominance is due to the under-theorisation of the foundations of that dominance, the root problem being macroeconomic theories' tradition of taking the household investor to be the representative investor when it should in reality be an institutional asset manager. If financial securities are viewed through the lens of the institutional investor it becomes clear that there can be no exodus from the dollar because it becomes clear that foreign investors remain attracted to the US capital market for reasons as much to do with its mass and consequent gravitational force as to do with a shortage of securities that can be supplied by other capital markets.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Investment, Macroeconomics, Currency, Dollar, Euro, and Capital Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
32. Contesting and Reassessing the 'Too Much Finance' Hypothesis: A Literature Review
- Author:
- Tania Rojas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews recent contributions that reassess and contest the “too much finance” hypothesis. It surveys a predominantly empirical body of work that, in contrast to earlier studies focused mainly on advanced economies, increasingly incorporates developing and less-developed regions. The evidence reviewed suggests that an inverted-U-shaped relationship between financial development and economic growth is more consistently identified in studies of advanced economies. In contrast, analyses of samples of less-developed countries more frequently report positive linear or U-shaped relationships, pointing to conditions of “too little finance.” The review also documents methodological shifts in the literature, including a growing adoption of nonlinear modeling strategies, the use of alternative measures of financial development, and a greater focus on mediating factors in the finance-growth nexus. The paper concludes that a clear consensus remains elusive. The literature faces persistent methodological challenges, sensitivity to model specification and sample composition, and a prevailing emphasis on empirical estimation rather than theoretical discussion.
- Topic:
- Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Literature Review, and Financial Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
33. Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base
- Author:
- Joseph Majkut, Alexander Palmer, and Raj Sawhney
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Can the energy infrastructure serving the U.S. defense industrial base sustain production under mobilization? This paper focuses on three scenarios for mobilization consistent with baseline production, defense buildup, and peer war. Using embodied energy methods, the research team estimates that war production rates would require 17.4 petajoules (PJ) of energy annually, a relatively small amount nationally, but one that would need to be concentrated at facilities in already stressed grid regions. Facilities for the defense-critical production of steel, aluminum, titanium, and semiconductors are clustered in regions already facing eroding reserve margins and surging data center demands. Natural gas deliverability constraints compound these risks, as key facilities depend on gas both as direct fuel and as the primary source of regional electricity generation. This paper recommends extending defense-critical electric infrastructure designations to industrial nodes, creating dedicated permitting and finance pathways to facilitate energy production, and integrating energy resilience into supply chain risk assessments.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Sustainability, and Defense Industry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
34. The Agency of Middle Powers in a Fragmented and Polarised World
- Author:
- Thomas Greminger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
- Abstract:
- The international system is entering a period of intensified fragmentation and geopolitical polarisation. Competition among China, Russia, and the United States is reshaping the global order and redefining spheres of influence. These dynamics create both challenges and opportunities for middle powers, which must navigate contested spaces where alignment with one great power can generate tensions with others. Middle powers face a delicate balance: they seek to preserve their autonomy, influence multilateral institutions and maintain credibility in international networks, and their choices whether to align with a particular great power, hedge their international relationship bets, or engage in principled diplomacy can either stabilise fragmented regions or amplify systemic competition. Yet debates about the future of the international order tend to focus on great powers and institutional reform, leaving the behaviour of middle powers under-explored. This Policy Brief examines how middle powers can exercise strategic autonomy and influence in a fragmented world. It emphasises behaviour, relational positioning, and policy choices rather than material capacity alone by analysing how middle powers balance principles with pragmatism; manage geography and alignment; and engage in bridge-building, coalition-building, and mediation. It then assesses their capacity to stabilise regional and global orders, support multilateralism, and enhance systemic resilience.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, Polarization, and Middle Powers
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, Global Focus, and United States of America
35. Guidelines for Decarbonizing Industry in Time to Meet Global Climate Goals
- Author:
- Chris Bataille, Seton Stiebert, and Francis Li
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Near-term guidance for decarbonizing global industry is needed to ensure it happens on pace to meet Paris Agreement climate goals. Such insights would help industry and financial decision-makers as well as inform government policies meant to support the transition toward lower-carbon energy sources. This report combines a review of country diplomatic commitments, policies, and industrial roadmaps with decarbonization scenarios and new global modeling to suggest timelines, carbon prices, regulations, and lead markets for clean products, to replace unabated fossil fuel–powered industrial facilities and equipment with near-zero carbon emissions alternatives. It also estimates the capital and operating expenditures required, and provides policy options to support these efforts.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Industry, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
36. Nuclear Energy’s New Momentum: Can World Capacity Triple by 2050?
- Author:
- Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The second Nuclear Energy Summit highlighted renewed global momentum to expand nuclear power as countries face volatile fossil-fuel supplies amid ongoing Middle East tensions. With governments pledging to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, nuclear energy is once again being positioned as a reliable low-carbon pillar of energy security. However, the speed and credibility of this expansion will ultimately depend not only on financing and technology, but also on regulatory institutions, industrial capacity, and a skilled workforce needed to govern it safely.
- Topic:
- Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Global Focus
37. Food Security in ASEAN’s 2026 Agenda: Perspectives on Human Security and Inclusiveness Amidst Crises
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Farmers form the backbone of ASEAN agriculture but are increasingly vulnerable amidst crises and longer-term structural challenges, including ageing, urbanisation, and natural disasters. A human security approach that prioritises these vulnerabilities is integral to resilience.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Natural Disasters, Urbanization, Food Security, Human Security, ASEAN, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Global Focus
38. The UN Climate Regime and the US Withdrawal
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration announced the US withdrawal from the international climate regime earlier this year. One possible explanation lies in the growing influence of the IPCC’s scientific authority in domestic spheres, which may have altered the perceived costs and benefits of continued participation. Despite the US absence, the UNFCCC remains an important platform for international climate cooperation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
39. Global development policy and the New World Disorder: the Trump Administration's delivery of a high-voltage shockwave to multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles
- Author:
- Stephan Klingebiel and Andy Sumner
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Global development policy is a particularly revealing field in which the Trump administration combines crude transactionalism with a high level of ideological commitment, namely an authoritarian libertarianism oriented toward elite interests. This is coupled with, at times, a chaotic absence of tactical or strategic coherence. With Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, a significant phase in international affairs, including global development policy, began. This policy brief traces the evolution of the US approach to development cooperation and exposes how Trump's approach represents an overtly aggressive assault, delivering a high voltage shockwave to global sustainable development policy, undermining multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles of international solidarity. The United States (US) has played a decisive role in the conception and evolution of global development policy since the mid-20th century. From the establishment of the post-Second World War order onward, the US shaped the normative, political and organizational foundations of development cooperation, often setting agendas, defining standards, and providing leadership and personnel for key multilateral institutions. Early reconstruction efforts such as the Marshall Plan and the establishment of the World Bank embedded development within a broader framework of power politics, positioning aid as both a tool of reconstruction and geopolitical influence. Since January 2025, US development cooperation has undergone a dramatic rupture. The administration rapidly withdrew from multilateral institutions, cut budgets, and de facto dissolved USAID, transferring residual functions to the State Department. This shift was accompanied by conspiracy narratives and an explicit rejection of multilateral norms, marking a sharp departure from previous Republican and Democratic approaches alike. The brief conceptualises this shift as the emergence of a “New Washington Dissensus”: a model of transactional, nationalist development cooperation that treats aid as an instrument of power rather than a global public good. Under this paradigm, development engagement is ideologically conditional, hostile to climate and equity agendas, oriented toward migration control, and explicitly transactional. The Trump administration's National Security Strategy (December 2025) is consistent with this in the sense that it frames an “America First” approach that narrows US priorities to “core, vital national interests” and places strong emphasis on Western Hemisphere pre-eminence via a stated “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. For global development, foreign assistance and development finance are thus instruments of strategic competition and commercial diplomacy. US agencies are mobilized to back US commercial positioning. The consequences are dramatic and systemic. The US retreat has destabilized the global development architecture and intensified geopolitical fragmentation. For many countries in the Global South, this represents a watershed moment, creating both new room for maneuver and new dependencies as states pursue multi-alignment strategies amid intensifying great-power rivalry. At the same time, humanitarian impacts are severe. Overall, the brief concludes that development policy has entered a new phase, which is narrower, more instrumental and overtly geopolitical,and is reshaping not only US engagement but the future of global development policy itself.
- Topic:
- Development, Multilateralism, Institutions, Norms, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
40. Making global benefits pay: the World Bank reform to support global public goods
- Author:
- Jakob Schwab
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Global public goods (GPGs) are goods that are produced locally but have global effects. GPGs are essential for securing global development. The climate and biodiversity crises, pandemics, as well as fragility, conflict and violence are threatening livelihoods and well-being around the world, and addressing them would have enormous positive economic and social effects. However, the cross-border externalities involved are not being fully taken into account by countries, and hence these GPGs are still underprovided compared with what would be globally optimal. One year ago, the World Bank launched the Framework for Financial Incentives (FFI) to strengthen the support of GPGs in its operations. This novel instrument encourages countries to implement investment projects and policies that have positive spillovers to other countries by offering targeted financial incentives. As a core element of the World Bank's Evolution reform, the FFI reflects the recognition that relatively modest investments in client countries can generate substantial global benefits – for other developing and emerging economies as well as for the Bank's shareholder countries. Its challenges lie in incorporating the non-financial aspects of GPGs and the multi-faceted motivations to provide them in bankable operations. This policy brief discusses the relevance of GPGs for development and presents the World Bank's approach to supporting their provision in client countries through the FFI. The key takeaways are: • GPGs are not all those that are commonly shared or agreed upon as goals but are defined by the specific problem structure that the involved cross-border externalities entail. • Investment in GPGs can generate substantial benefits – not only for developing and emerging economies, but also for high-income countries that make up the World Bank's largest shareholders. Consequently, both out of enlightened self-interest and as a cost-effective way to advance global sustainable development at a time when international development budgets are undergoing significant reductions, shareholder countries should increase their contributions to the FFI. This applies in particular to those provided to the Livable Planet Fund, which provides the essential grant financing for countries' GPG-related projects. • To retain and strengthen confidence among stakeholders, the FFI must deploy its resources efficiently. This implies offering grants only when projects' overall domestic benefits are insufficient to motivate countries to provide GPGs on their own, and extending loans instead when client countries have sufficient self-interest to ensure repayment. The assessment of costs and benefits is complex, but it should improve with experience and become increasingly standardized. To signal its effectiveness, the FFI should pursue full transparency in its allocation decisions and undertake systematic impact assessments.
- Topic:
- Development, World Bank, Reform, and Public Goods
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
41. What do the 2015 SDG negotiations teach us for a beyond-2030 framework?
- Author:
- Paula von Haaren and Axel Berger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – the global framework establishing 17 universal and interconnected goals to guide sustainable development efforts – was adopted in 2015 following a uniquely participative and ambitious process. A decade on, it is increasingly evident that most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are unlikely to be achieved by 2030 as originally envisioned. Discussions about a follow-up framework beyond 2030 are gaining momentum ahead of the SDG Summit in September 2027. This paper evaluates the process design, inclusiveness, negotiating strategies, fora and fault lines in 2015 and discusses to what extent the lessons learned can be applied to negotiations for a potential follow-up framework. We find that several process design elements and negotiation strategies, as well as actor composition, fostered trust and ownership, reduced polarization and enabled agreements on ambitious targets. In particular, the process benefited from the inclusion of diverse, non-hierarchical actor communities, a long, science-based stocktaking phase, the breaking up of traditional negotiating blocks, transparency, and emphasis on common interests. We also identify several recurring fault lines that are overwhelmingly still relevant today. Apart from the above best practices of the process leading to the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, we identify several shortcomings that should be addressed in the beyond-2030 negotiations: inefficiencies due to competing tracks for the development of the goals; top-down agenda-setting processes leading to less ambitious outcomes; barriers to participation of and accountability towards some marginalized and informal actors; and the watering down of goals and indicators – including non-tangible targets and unresolved inconsistencies and trade-offs within the agenda. Finally, the paper argues that the beyond-2030 negotiations will take place in a context that is similar to the process that led to the SDGs but is nevertheless in many ways more challenging than in 2015, amidst intensifying crises, political shifts and loss of trust.
- Topic:
- Development and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42. Global Trends in High Debt Levels and Their Macroeconomic Implications
- Author:
- Hongseok Choi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- In response to the unprecedented crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, governments and central banks around the world injected massive fiscal stimulus and liquidity support. These bold policy measures succeeded in averting the worst recession, but, as a consequence, the world is now facing historically high levels of debt. According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt surpassed USD 324 trillion in the first quarter of 2025—roughly three times the size of global GDP and “[a level unseen] since the Napoleonic Wars.” Moreover, global debt increased by USD 7.5 trillion during the same quarter, more than four times the quarterly average increase of USD 1.7 trillion since late 2022, indicating that the global debt problem has worsened rather than eased after the pandemic. Against this backdrop, Choi et al. (2025) reassessed the structure of the post-pandemic high-debt environment, analyzed vulnerabilities across advanced economies, emerging markets, and Korea, and derived policy implications for proactive responses. The purpose of this report is to present their key findings.
- Topic:
- Debt, Macroeconomics, COVID-19, Banking, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
43. A Beast of a Different Kind: Malign Foreign Information Operations
- Author:
- Jordan Miller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Information attacks are their own distinct kind of villain. They have characteristics unlike those of cyberattacks and financial crimes, and need to be addressed with a strategy tailor-made for the kind of threat they pose. As Canada faces growing challenges of many kinds, it does the security operations of Canada a disservice to lump them together with other non-kinetic threats. So what is Canada’s best bet for a comprehensive approach that treats information attacks as their own beast? Jordan Miller illuminates how information attacks are redefining conflict. They move both independently and in tandem with other measures, including military power, and they know no borders. Measures to address the threat must equip the psyche as well as the digital space, as Canada’s allies have identified, and Canada’s approach must seek to understand more aspects of an attacker’s strategy and equip national security against this distinctive beast.
- Topic:
- National Security, Democracy, Foreign Interference, Information Warfare, and Freedom of Thought
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
44. Artificial Intelligence, the Future of War and International Politics
- Author:
- Michael C. Horowitz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Companies, not governments, are at the cutting edge of developing new artificial intelligence (AI) technologies for military use, and regulation needs to keep pace with these advances. Yet geopolitical tension is undermining international cooperation on AI in the military domain. This paper examines opportunities for global cooperation to mitigate the risk of accidents and misuse of these technologies that could lead to escalation. Possible options include establishing an agreement to regulate autonomous systems, mandating human control over nuclear weapons and creating a UN-based institution to oversee responsible military applications of AI.
- Topic:
- National Security, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and International Politics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
45. Advancing Responsible AI Across NATO: Innovation and Interoperability
- Author:
- Ryan Jay Atkinson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- NATO’s first AI strategy from 2021 outlines six guiding principles: lawfulness, responsibility and accountability, explainability and traceability, reliability, governability, and bias mitigation. Together, these principles form the ethical and operational baseline guiding how NATO and its members design, deploy and govern AI in defence contexts. But the world of AI has evolved drastically since 2021. The 2024 strategy was more about practical applications, emphasizing cooperation of non-traditional defence suppliers for AI research and development with industry, academia and national defence agencies. NATO’s evolving AI strategy is part of larger initiatives toward rapid technological adaptation, innovating AI among other priority areas, including autonomous systems, with programs that support responsible AI operationalization scaling rapidly to meet the growing need for fast action on responsible AI use. Allies foster responsible AI developments that benefit from alignment with these NATO strategies and programs, building innovation clusters that are interoperable and interdisciplinary across domains.
- Topic:
- NATO, National Security, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
46. AI National Security Scenarios
- Author:
- Duncan Cass-Beggs and Matthew da Mota
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- On March 26, 2025, the Global AI Risks Initiative at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Privy Council Office of Canada co-hosted a full-day, in-person scenarios workshop in Ottawa, Ontario, to explore existing and emerging implications for national security posed by next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) systems. This summary report contains policy recommendations that are intended to stimulate and enrich discussion among policy makers and the broader public. It is composed of three parts: an executive summary highlighting key messages drawn from the workshop discussions and background literature; a detailed description of key uncertainties and five possible future AI scenarios and implications considered at the workshop, adapted from the background paper shared with participants in advance of the workshop; and an appendix summarizing key points from the workshop discussion.
- Topic:
- National Security, Governance, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
47. The Fourth Path: Middle-Income Countries and Prosocial AI
- Author:
- Cornelia C. Walther
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Middle-income countries, home to 75 percent of the global population, have an opportunity to pioneer a prosocial approach to regulating artificial intelligence (AI). Cornelia C. Walther argues that prosocial AI — systems tailored, trained, tested and targeted to advance human well-being and planetary health — offers a framework for these countries to take a fourth path to AI policy that avoids the pitfalls of the three current models and aligns technological development with sustainable and equitable outcomes, embedding these values from the design phase onward. This fourth path demands regional cooperation among middle-income countries to share information on AI policy experiments and their outcomes; build collective capacity; and demonstrate that prosocial innovation can drive both economic competitiveness and human development.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Middle-Income Countries
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
48. Lessons from the 2025 G7 Cycle: Quantum, AI and Science Diplomacy
- Author:
- Michael P. A. Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- The 2025 G7 convened at a time of international instability. Nevertheless, its meetings achieved meaningful progress on emerging technologies. The 2025 G7 cycle’s outputs focused on scope, rather than concluding with a wide-ranging statement about geopolitical order, a fundamentally different perspective for middle powers. Michael P. A. Murphy argues that middle powers can use strategies of science diplomacy to navigate the current instability of international relations. Technical aspects of science policy have the potential to facilitate continued cooperation amid growing international tensions, as has been demonstrated by the key emerging technology outputs of the 2025 G7 cycle, and by emphasizing technical cooperation rather than debates on international order, middle powers can support the resilience of international institutions.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, G7, and Quantum Computing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
49. What Luck Has to Do With It: Understanding the Role of Nuclear Luck in Decision-Making
- Author:
- Tyrus Tibor Kalanyos
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Second World War and the start of the Nuclear Age, there have been numerous cases of nuclear near-use or near-incidents. This article makes a case for how luck, particularly nuclear luck, has not only been an essential variable in preventing nuclear wars and uses, but also how experiences with nuclear luck have shaped the decision-making process in America and the Soviet Union. Through case study analyses of the War Scare events in the early 1980s, primarily the Able Archer-83 incident and the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident, the paper identifies attitude and policy shifts in decision-makers’ posture towards nuclear security with an understanding of political psychology scholarship. The findings suggest that experiences of nuclear luck can lead to more careful and risk-averse behaviour, the paper also highlights how the relationship between nuclear luck and the decision-making process can advance theories on behavioural arms control.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Decision-Making, and Luck
- Political Geography:
- Soviet Union, Global Focus, and United States of America
50. Military Peace Leadership to Protect the Force and Civilians in an Ever-Changing Environment
- Author:
- Omar Martin Tejada Perez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This article explains how peace operations have evolved in response to constant and dynamic changes in conflict environments. This situation challenges traditional military leadership styles and approaches, which are mostly anchored in a conventional warfare mindset, one of the main reasons for the major failures in protecting United Nations forces and local civilians on the ground. Three examples of leadership stories that have positively impacted people on the ground, despite the adversity they faced, together with theoretical leadership approaches, form the analytical frame that leads to some conclusions and recommendations. In this sense, military education, social skills and capabilities, as well as civil and military interaction and coordination, are some topics revisited throughout the document.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Leadership, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus