Political Geography: Global Focus

401. Post-Summit Analyses: BRICS 2025 and the Rio Declaration

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: BRICS expanded faces a crucial moment for multilateralism. The period between the recent summit held in Rio de Janeiro and the upcoming presidency of the bloc in India, in 2026, offers an opportunity to plan the next steps. In its new configuration, following the 2024 expansion, Brazil faces challenges in recalibrating its role within the group. Within the context of new agendas, governance between annual presidencies becomes increasingly important. Brazil’s effort to assert its leadership hinges on influencing the bloc’s agenda during the next presidency, a process that begins as soon as the Rio summit was concluded. In this context, the closed-door meeting aims to analyze Brazil’s real capacity to act as a diplomatic bridge between BRICS and its traditional Western interlocutors, especially the European Union, as well as between the 2025 Summit in Brazil and the 2026 Summit under India’s presidency. Based on Brazil’s and New Delhi’s commitment to democracy and multilateralism, the bridge between these two presidencies may represent an effort to ease tensions, providing greater transparency and predictability to decisions made within BRICS. Additionally, it is essential to deepen the understanding of what can be drawn from the final communiqué, the Leaders’ Declaration of the 17th BRICS Summit, by analyzing the political impacts of the meeting and the developments stemming from the joint declaration.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

402. What Comes Next? Reflections on the BRICS Rio Declaration and the Path to COP30

Author:: CEBRI
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: This webinar is one of several initiatives promoted by the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) to explore Brazil’s role within the BRICS and assess the bloc’s influence on key global issues. This particular event focused on the synergies between the BRICS agenda and the expectations surrounding the upcoming COP30, which will take place in November this year. This is a pivotal moment for Brazil. Following its presidency of the G20 last year, the country now holds the dual chairmanship of the BRICS Summit and COP30. In this sense, this report summarizes the main discussions regarding the Rio Declaration and its possible implications for COP30.
Topic:: Climate Change, G20, BRICS, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Global Focus

403. Psychology in Peacemaking: A Guide for Mediators and Negotiators

Author:: Charlotte Hamm
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: In an era of shifting geopolitics, fragmented conflicts, and fast-track peace deals, the human dimension of peacemaking is too often overlooked. At the heart of any negotiation lies the human factor: a complex interplay of emotions, trust, trauma, and other psychological elements. Drawing on over 40 interviews with negotiators, mediators, and psychologists, this guide offers practical strategies and psychological insights to support those involved in peace processes, bridging the gap between psychological understanding and peacemaking. Designed as a hands-on toolbox, the guide provides adaptable tools to help negotiators and mediators navigate the emotional and relational complexities of peacemaking, from managing trauma and difficult personalities to fostering trust, mindset transformation, and rehumanisation.
Topic:: Emotions, Psychology, Peacemaking, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

404. Polarization as a result of crises and the rise of radicalization leading to violent extremism in Western societies

Author:: Triandafyllos Karatrantos
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Polarization as an impact of crises and its connection to radicalization leading to violent extremism through the study of two crises: a) the migration/refugee crisis of 2015-2016 and b) the pandemic. An important part of the problem is the political mainstreaming of extremist narratives, that is, the choice of politicians to increasingly exploit far-right and conspiratorial narratives that have been supported by segments of the population in recent years. Polarization is an issue that concerns groups of individuals and not lone actors the risk of conflict is magnified when society is divided into two equal groups with competing goals” Multiple crises are more dangerous, as on the one hand they exert greater pressure on the management mechanisms of states and on the other hand they expand the vulnerability of societies, groups and individuals. A broad sense of democratic deficit and two successive processes of questioning have been created that lead to a crisis: a) of trust and b) of representation. Prolonged polarization has led to the radicalization of a large number of citizens, without necessarily resulting from the support of a specific ideology Disinformation, the spread of fake news and the dissemination of conspiracy theories constitute a threat to democracy and have caused significant problems in electoral processes and fuel polarization. The pandemic acted as a catalyst and influenced radicalization, but also the way extremist groups operate.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Refugees, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

405. The Global State of al-Qa`ida 24 Years After 9/11

Author:: Colin Clarke and Clara Broekaert
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Al-Qa`ida has evolved considerably over the past four decades. Today, it is no longer a hierarchical organization with charismatic leadership, but rather a decentralized network of franchise groups dispersed throughout Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and beyond. The group has not conducted spectacular external operations (EXOPS) for many years, but instead has been focused on patiently rebuilding, dedicating its resources and manpower to forging relationships with regional affiliates and championing their grievances, which are often locally focused. Al-Qa`ida Central, including its senior leadership, has been attenuated, but the organization’s branches in Somalia and the Sahel are gaining momentum, and there is growing concern that al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is also looking to rebound. All of this is occurring against a backdrop of decline in the overall tempo of Western counterterrorism efforts, signaling the end of more than two decades of the Global War on Terrorism. Even in its diminished form, 24 years after the 9/11 attacks, al-Qa`ida and its global network of affiliates pose a serious latent security threat, including to the West, which takes these groups for granted at its own peril.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, Middle East, and Global Focus

406. Reflection on Two Levels: Stalemate at COP28, Stakes at COP29

Author:: Majid Asadnabizadeh
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Dubai in 2023 and COP29 in 2024. Some outcomes of COP28 were optimistic, while others require reassessment at COP29. The author identifies four essential issues for COP28 using literary language analysis. Two favorable terms, “financial support” and “food system”, were found, along with two challenging terms, “Loss and Damage” and “Global Stocktake” (GST). The second level of analysis focuses on the situation leading up to COP29. GST is highlighted as a crucial issue, especially after Russia invaded Ukraine, which has raised doubts about the transition away from fossil fuels. The author suggests that during COP29, energy independence pioneers, such as the EU, and proponents of energy dependence, like India and China, may face conflicts, complicating cooperation between industrialized and developing countries. Additionally, the US situation poses challenges for international cooperation, with uncertainty surrounding the 2024 elections and the potential return of Donald Trump. The Republicans, under Trump, are less likely to support energy independence, particularly given the roles of China and India and their continued reliance on fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, after 2022.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy, Conference of the Parties (COP), COP28, and COP29
Political Geography:: Global Focus

407. Deception as Process and Content: Mapping Research on Deception Published in SJR’s Top-Ranked Communication Studies Journals

Author:: Barbara Cyrek, Malwina Popiołek, Jenna Peltonen, Leslie Corbo, and Maxim Gorbachevsky
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper reviews the recent literature in the field of communication sciences in terms of analyzing the research on deception, misinformation, and information misuse. A scoping review of the literature presented here focuses on deception studies published in top SJR journals in the years 2020–2022. Two research approaches can be distinguished in this field: analyzing the process or analyzing the content. For the most part, researchers analyze deception from the perspective of the communication process, there are far fewer studies on the content of deceptive messages. Original papers comprise the majority of studies on deception in the communications field, and, among them, dominate the research on social media. In recent years, research on instant messaging services such as WhatsApp has been increasingly popular, but there has been a lack of studies on Telegram, which is growing in importance for communication processes. This work contributes to the literature on deception by introducing a novel literature sampling method and investigating two dimensions of deception analysis, of which one is far more represented in communication studies.
Topic:: Communications, Disinformation, Misinformation, Fake News, and Deception
Political Geography:: Global Focus

408. Protection of Civilians According to the Approaches of the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization: Analysis of Assumptions and Challenges during Peace, Crisis Management, Armed Conflicts and War

Author:: Tomasz Rubaj and Anna Ludwiczak
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article presents the conclusions of research in the area of Protection of Civilians (PoC). The first part discusses the essence, purpose, main components, and dimensions of PoC. The introductory section provides a comparative analysis of the principles of PoC under the UN and NATO approaches, indicating both similarities and the reasons for existing differences. The research focuses on the evolving challenges of PoC, taking into account lessons learned from crises, armed conflicts, and wars. The purpose of the article is to analyse the main assumptions of PoC adopted by the UN and NATO during crises and wars. The research problem is expressed through the following question: How are the basic assumptions of PoC formulated in the UN and NATO approaches, what similarities and differences exist between them, and how can they be improved in light of experiences from contemporary crises, armed conflicts, and wars? The article also identifies the main challenges related to PoC and the management of international organizations. It presents the theoretical framework, research findings, and issues for further discussion.
Topic:: Security, NATO, United Nations, Crisis Management, Civilians, Armed Conflict, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

409. The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia: Immigration and Right-Wing Populism

Author:: Frédéric Docquier and Hillel Rapoport
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We investigate the bidirectional relationship between immigration and right-wing populism, which we characterize as a self-reinforcing dynamic process where anti-immigrant rhetoric and populist policies lead to a deterioration in the average education and skill level of immigrants. The deterioration in the ratio of high-skill to low-skill immigrants in turn fuels populist support and anti-immigration attitudes, creating what we call “the vicious circle of xenophobia”. We review some historical and contemporary studies that are suggestive of such vicious circle. In particular, recent crosscountry evidence shows that low-skill immigration tends to exacerbate populism, while high-skill immigration tends to mitigate it. Conversely, populist policies and xenophobic attitudes have a strong repulsive effect on highly-skilled immigrants and result in adverse immigrant selection. We use the empirical results from those studies to inform a theoretical model of joint determination of immigrants’ skill-ratio and right-wing populism levels. The model displays multiple equilibria, with the inferior equilibrium – corresponding to our vicious circle – characterized by high levels of right-wing populism and a high proportion of low-skill workers among immigrants. In this framework, structural trends such as internet penetration, economic erosion of the middle class, demographic pressure from poor countries as well as adverse cyclical shocks make the good, efficient equilibrium less likely and the inferior equilibrium of explosive populism and deteriorated immigrants’ skill-ratio more likely.
Topic:: Immigration, Populism, Xenophobia, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

410. Ownership Chains in Multinational Enterprises

Author:: Stefania Miricola and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This study examines how multinational enterprises (MNEs) structure ownership chains to coordinate subsidiaries across multiple national borders. Using a unique global dataset, we first document key stylized facts: 54% of subsidiaries are controlled through indirect ownership, and ownership chains can span up to seven countries. In particular, we find that subsidiaries further down the hierarchy tend to be more geographically distant from the parent and often operate in different time zones. This suggests that the ease of communication along ownership chains is a critical determinant of their structure. Motivated by these findings, we develop a location choice model in which parent firms compete for corporate control of final subsidiaries. When monitoring is costly, they may delegate control to an intermediate affiliate in another jurisdiction. The model generates a two-stage empirical strategy: (i) a trilateral equation that determines the location of an intermediate affiliate conditional on the location of final subsidiaries; and (ii) a bilateral equation that predicts the location of final investment. Our empirical estimates confirm that the ease of communication at the country level significantly influences the location decisions of affiliates along ownership chains. These findings underscore the importance of organizational frictions in shaping global corporate structures and provide new insights into the geography of multinational ownership networks.
Topic:: Economy, Multinational Corporations, Ownership, and Corporate Control
Political Geography:: Global Focus

411. Heterogeneous Trade Elasticity and Managerial Skills

Author:: Maria Bas, Lionel Fontagné, Irene Iodice, and Gianluca Orefice
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the role played by firms' managerial skills in the heterogeneous reaction of exporters to common exogenous changes in their international competitiveness (here captured by changes in the real exchange rate). Relying on a simple theoretical framework, we show that firms with better managerial skills have higher profits, market power, and are able to adapt their markup more when faced with a competitiveness shock. We test this prediction relying on detailed firm-product-destination level export data from France for the period 1995-2007 matched with specific information on the firms' share of managers. Our findings show that managerial intensive firms have larger exporter price elasticity to real exchange rate variations. The effect is not trivial: in the wake of a depreciation, exporters whose management intensity is one standard deviation higher than the average, increase their prices by 51% to 73% more than the average exporter. This finding is robust to controlling for the alternative explanations suggested by the previous literature to explain the heterogeneous pass-through of firms.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Exports, Trade, and Depreciation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

412. Carbon Bias of Tariffs: Are Fossil fuels the Culprits?

Author:: Cecilia Bellora, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, and Yousef Salib
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper revisits the existence of a carbon bias in trade policies, where emissions-intensive sectors receive lower trade protection than cleaner sectors. Using a stylized general equilibrium model that accounts for greenhouse gas emissions, we confirm the presence of a carbon bias but find it to be significantly smaller than previously estimated. Our analysis reveals that this bias is primarily driven by low tariffs on fossil fuels, particularly crude oil. Incorporating the finite nature of fossil fuel resources into the model reduces the responsiveness of fossil fuel production to tariff changes, effectively neutralizing the carbon bias. Furthermore, when accounting for domestic consumption taxes on fossil fuels in non-producing countries –which act as de facto tariffs– the bias shifts toward a pro-environmental stance. These findings underscore the importance of integrating energy markets' specificities and domestic distortions into trade models to better account for the impact of trade policies on the environment.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Fossil Fuels, and Greenhouse Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

413. Multinationals Here and There: Affiliates' Response to Global Crises

Author:: Constance Marette, Camilo Umana Dajud, and Vincent Vicard
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper investigates how multinational enterprises (MNEs) adapted their global operations in the post COVID-19 period. Using the pandemic as a natural experiment, we analyze how MNEs adjusted employment across their foreign and domestic affiliates in response to economic disruptions and shifting perceptions. Leveraging a crosscountry, firm-level dataset, we employ a difference-in-differences approach among treated groups to assess the causal differential response of MNEs relative to domestic firms. MNEs outperformed domestic firms following the pandemic, driven primarily by the stronger performance of their domestic affiliates. We also find evidence of home bias in adjustments within MNEs: employment growth was significantly higher in domestic affiliates than in foreign ones. These patterns intensified through 2022, suggesting persistent shifts in MNE strategies.
Topic:: Globalization, Economy, Multinational Corporations, COVID-19, and Reshoring
Political Geography:: Global Focus

414. Does Immigration Affect Native Wages? A Meta-Analysis

Author:: Clément Nedoncelle, Léa Marchal, Amandine Aubry, and Jérôme Héricourt
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: The impact of immigration on native workers’ wages has been a long-standing debate in labour and international economics. This meta-analysis synthesises findings from 88 studies published between 1985 and 2023, providing a comprehensive assessment of reduced-form estimates of the wage effect of immigration. Our results align with the existing literature, showing that the average wage effect is centred around zero, with substantial heterogeneity across studies. We highlight the critical role of contexts and methodological choices in shaping wage estimates. In particular, we find that shift-share instrumental variables correct for an upward bias of the OLS. Our findings emphasise the need for replication studies and greater transparency in methodological choices.
Topic:: Immigration, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:: Global Focus

415. The Variance of Gravity

Author:: Camilo Umana Dajud
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper documents a fundamental problem in applied gravity estimation: the variance of gravity estimates becomes prohibitively large when policy regressors are parse. I define sparse regressors as dummy variables that equal one in fewer than 100 to 500 observations depending on the setting; a common characteristic of trade policies such as free trade agreements. Through Monte Carlo simulations calibrated to match previously established data generating processes in the literature, I demonstrate that the variance of coefficient estimates is approximately inversely proportional to the number of treated observations, making reliable statistical inference impossible when policy variables are infrequent. This variance problem is distinct from well-known issues related to high-dimensional fixed effects and affects both OLS and PPML estimators regardless of specification complexity. The severity of this variance problem depends on the magnitude of the true underlying coefficient: the variance problem is severe and practically prohibitive for moderate coefficients (such as those typically found for many trade policy effects), but becomes negligible for large effects. To address this issue, I propose Ridge regularization as a practical solution that reduces estimate variance while introducing minimal bias. The main contribution however is not advocating for Ridge regularization, but rather highlighting that variance is often the dominant source of uncertainty in gravity estimation when dealing with sparse policy variables, underscoring fundamental limitations of gravity models for evaluating infrequent policies with moderate effect sizes. These findings have implications not only for the international trade literature but also for other fields that employ gravitytype specifications, including migration and macroeconomics.
Topic:: Economy, Trade Policy, Gravity Model, and Ridge Regression
Political Geography:: Global Focus

416. Labor Market Power, Export Prices and Pass-through

Author:: Malik Curuk, Jérôme Héricourt, and Gonzague Vannoorenberghe
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: Estimating the effects of goods and labor market power on firm pricing behavior is difficult since firm-level output and employment are jointly determined. We exploit the variation in the sets of destination countries across exporting firms, which enables us to separately identify the effects of goods and labor market power on pass-through rates by reducing the comovement of firm size across specific sales markets and in its local labor market. We present a theoretical framework in which multi-destination exporters are oligopolists in their goods markets and oligopsonists in their local labor market. Combining firm-level trade data per product-destination with establishment-level balance sheet data and employment zone identifiers for the universe of French firms from 1995 to 2015, we construct theoretically sound proxies for labor and goods market power and jointly estimate their effects on export prices using exchange rate shocks as the source of identifying variation in firm demand. Consistent with the model's predictions, we provide robust evidence that firms with stronger labor market power have a lower pass-through of changes in their effective exchange rate into export prices conditional on their goods market power. The findings indicate a sizable degree of labor market power for French exporters.
Topic:: Labor Market, Exchange Rates, and Capital Goods
Political Geography:: Global Focus

417. International Trade by Production Stage: What’s Real?

Author:: Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, and Deniz Ünal
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: The intensity of global value chains can be proxied by the share of intermediate goods in world trade. This indicator is however affected by price effects, which were particularly strong during the recent inflation episode of the early 2020s. To neutralize these price effects, we compute price deflators by production stage, obtaining series of trade in volume. The deflated series reveal that the share of intermediate goods in world trade is relatively stable since the early 2000s. If anything, trade in parts and components, a key feature of global value chains, seems slightly more dynamic than other production stages. Our results further show that parts and components, as well as capital goods, experienced the fastest trend growth between 2000 and 2023, while primary goods lagged behind. Finally, trade volumes appear strongly procyclical overall, except for primary goods, which display no significant correlation with the global output gap.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Value Chains, and Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

418. The Instruments of Profit Shifting

Author:: Kevin Parra Ramirez and Vincent Vicard
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: While multinational enterprises (MNEs) shift hundreds of billions in profits to low-tax jurisdictions annually, how they do remains disputed. Using firm-level data for France in 2018, we provide the first joint quantification of the three main profit-shifting channels: transfer mispricing in goods trade, intangible assets and services traded with tax havens, and intra-firm debt. We find empirical evidence for all three instruments, but transfer mispricing dominates quantitatively (€10 billion, 0.4\% of GDP), followed by services (up to €6 billion) and debt (€2 billion). Although significant, these direct estimates account for half of total missing profits in France, as estimated indirectly from the location of MNE profits. We document two key blind spots likely to close this gap: cross-border digital payments by households and understudied debt instruments (e.g., securities).
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Trade, and Profit Shifting
Political Geography:: Global Focus

419. Deep Trade Agreements and Heterogeneous Firms’ Exports

Author:: Matteo Neri-Lainé, Gianluca Orefice, and Michele Ruta
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper studies the effect of regional trade agreements on firms' exports using detailed information on the content of trade agreements and firm-level exports for 31 developing countries between 2000 and 2020. Moving from shallow to deep trade agreements - i.e. agreements that regulate border and behind-the-border policies - boosts firms' exports, on average, by 3.6 percent. In line with models of trade with heterogeneous firms, this effect is stronger for large firms and firms involved in global value chains and (weakly) negative for small firms, suggesting a competition effect of deep trade agreements with significant welfare consequences for signatory countries. An Instrumental Variable strategy and a battery of robustness tests confirm the causal interpretation of the results.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Developing World, Exports, Trade, and Firm Heterogeneity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

420. Sectoral Linkages and the Impact of Immigration on Export Performance

Author:: Amandine Aubry and Anthony Edo
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper studies how immigrants in intermediate sectors affect downstream export performance. We develop a theoretical model in which a sector’s exports depend not only on its own immigrant workforce, but also on immigrant labor in input-supplying sectors. Using a new dataset on U.S. input–output from 2003-2017, we show that increases in immigrant employment in these sectors raise exports in connected downstream industries. This effect operates partly through improved production efficiency that lowers upstream input costs. By linking labor migration to production networks, we identify a new channel through which immigration shapes comparative advantage in international trade.
Topic:: Immigration, Exports, Trade, Sectoral Linkages, and Intermediate Sectors
Political Geography:: Global Focus

421. Değişen Çocuk İmgesi ve Medya İlişkisi: İnternet ve Çevrimiçi Çocuk

Author:: Gonca Kar and Ayşe Aslı Sezgin Büyükalaca
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Zamanın toplum düzeni üzerinde yarattığı değişim, insanın da bu değişime bağlı olarak imgesel olarak farklı görünümlerini ortaya çıkartmaktadır. “Çocuk” ise bu değişim içinde anlamı, konumu ve imgesi açısından farklı tarihsel süreçlerde farklı görünümleriyle ön plandadır. Çocuk, aile içindeki çocuk kavramından toplumsal sistemdeki çocuk kavramına kadar farklı bağlamlarda, farklı açılardan incelenmektedir. Bu çalışmada ise David Elkind’in (1999) tarihsel olarak baskın olan çocukluk imgeleri konusundaki, üç modern çocuk imgesi olarak belirttiği, şehvetli çocuk, esnek çocuk, yetenekli bebek (Elkind’ın “çocuk” kavramı yerine “bebek” kavramını kullandığı görülmüştür) kavramsallaştırması ve sınıflandırması düşüncesinden yola çıkılmıştır. Elkind, gelecekte “Toplumsal bilge olarak, kendi kendine yeterli çocuk imgesinin” ortaya çıkacağını savunmaktadır. Elkind’ın tarihsel süreçte çocuk imgesini ele alışı ayrıca onun eleştirel yaklaşımını da ortaya koyar. Çocuk kavramının toplumsal ve kültürel yapıların bir yansıması olarak ele alınmasını eleştiren Elkind, toplumun çocuklara yönelik yaklaşımı hakkında güçlü bir eleştiriye sahiptir. Bu çalışma, söz konusu tarihsel çocukluk imgelerinin medya ile ilişkisini değerlendirmiş, gelecekteki çocuk tasavvurunu ise “çevrimiçi çocuk” kavramı üzerinden incelemiştir. Çalışmanın yönteminde, Elkind’in sınıflandırmasına uygun olarak kronolojik sıra ile medya içerikleri, yine her bir dönemin özelliklerini yansıtan kitle iletişim araçları aracılığıyla belirlenmiştir. Çocukluk imgeleri, bu içerikler örneğinde, niteliksel tarihsel tasarımı da dikkate alarak, analiz edilmiştir. Çevrimiçi çocuk olarak tanımlanan bugünün çocuk imgesi ise seçilen yeni medya içeriklerine yönelik değerlendirmelerle yapılmıştır. Kendi kendine yeten çocuk imgesinin tespitinde, seçilen medya içerikleri vasıtasıyla bu yeni çocukluk imgesinin özellikleri tespit edilmek istenmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, değişen çocuk imgesinin medya ile ilişkisi bağlamında yapılan değerlendirmede, ne yazık ki bugün ekonomik etkilerin çocuk kavramı üzerinde de önemli bir rol oynadığı gözlenmiştir. Çocuk, doğal yapısının dışında çoğu zaman ekonomik yaşamın önemli bir imgesi haline gelmiştir.
Topic:: Children, Media, Internet, and Media Literacy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

422. Turizm Sektöründeki Yenilikçi Faaliyetlerin Finansal Performans Üzerindeki Etkisi: BİST Uygulaması

Author:: Elif Yücel and Yasemin Ertan
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Turizm sektörü, sürekli değişen koşullar ve artan rekabet nedeniyle yenilikçi çözümler benimsemeyi zorunlu kılan dinamik bir yapıya sahiptir. Bu amaçla turizm işletmeleri farklı inovasyon stratejileri geliştirerek pazardaki konumlarını güçlendirmekte ve özellikle ekonomik sürdürülebilirliklerini sağlamaktadırlar. İnovatif çözümler başlangıçta birer maliyet unsuru olarak görülseler de işletmelerin müşteri sayılarının artmasını sağlayarak finansal performanslarını etkilemektedirler. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı da Türkiye’de turizm işletmelerinde gerçekleştirilen inovasyonların işletmelerin finansal performansı üzerindeki etkisini ölçmektir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada öncelikle 2016-2023 yılları arasında BIST'te işlem gören 11 turizm işletmesinin faaliyet raporları incelenmiş olup işletmelerin inovasyon faaliyetleri türlerine göre sınıflandırılarak puanlandırılmıştır. Bu sınıflandırma sonrasında inovasyon faaliyetlerinin işletmelerin finansal performansı üzerindeki etkilerini ölçmek amacıyla panel veri analizi uygulanmıştır. Modelde, literatürde ve uygulamada en yaygın kullanılan finansal performans göstergeleri olan ROA ve ROE göstergelerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bulgular, süreç inovasyonunun işletmelerin finansal performansı üzerinde anlamlı bir etki yarattığını, ürün, organizasyonel ve pazarlama inovasyonlarının ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Süreç inovasyonunun ROA ve ROE'yi pozitif yönde etkilediği, özellikle COVID-19 pandemisi sonrası dönemde turizm işletmelerinin dijitalleşmeye ve süreç yeniliklerine yöneldiği gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca, işletmelerin kaldıraç oranındaki artışın finansal performans üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, turizm sektöründe sürdürülebilir büyüme ve rekabet avantajı elde etmek için süreç inovasyonlarının önemini vurgularken, diğer inovasyon türlerinin finansal performans üzerindeki etkisinin sınırlı kaldığını göstermektedir.
Topic:: Tourism, Economy, Innovation, and Financial Performance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

423. Board Gender Diversity and Firm Value: Do Women on Boards Make a Difference?

Author:: Yasemin Altinyay, Muzaffer Aydemir, and Onur Tugman
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Gender diversity at the board level plays a vital role in shaping strategic decisions and governance outcomes in global corporations. As one of the most visible and measurable dimensions of diversity, gender representation has attracted increasing academic and institutional interest in recent years. This study investigates the relationship between board-level gender diversity and financial performance among global firms, focusing specifically on the financial sector. The analysis draws on cross-sectional data from 326 international financial institutions included in the 2022 Forbes Global 2000 list. Employing both correlation and multiple regression analyses, the study explores how female board representation correlates with key financial indicators, such as Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), and market value. The results suggest that greater female participation on boards is positively associated with higher ROE, while the effects on ROA and market value appear to be weaker. These findings offer empirical support for enhancing gender diversity in corporate governance frameworks.
Topic:: Women, Corporate Governance, Firms, Gender Diversity, and Market Value
Political Geography:: Global Focus

424. Disinformation in the City Brief #2: Thematic Areas and Impact

Author:: Jessica (Ika) Trijsburg, Paul Costello, William Ridge, Elise Park, and Daniel Pejic
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Disinformation impacts cities. In extraordinary times of rapid information-sharing, distrust, and disruption, cities are on the front line. Local authorities are the level of government most accessible to the people, and are tasked with leading communities through ever more complex societal and global challenges. Disinformation campaigns in public policy are mobilized to elicit a desired outcome, whether it be in healthcare, climate change, immigration, attitudes toward gender diversity, or another policy area. In this context, “campaigns” refer to organized efforts to spread false information deliberately created to harm, mislead, or evoke an emotional response in a target audience. Such an effort may be limited to a single element, such as a manufactured photo, or it may include a variety of mechanisms used over an extended period. Responding to a disinformation campaign must be considered in relation to the broader theme or subject it addresses. “Medical disinformation” concerns false or misleading information specifically related to, for example, medicine, vaccinations, or health care. Similarly, “climate disinformation” relates to false or misleading information about climate science, climate change policy, and sustainability planning. And “political disinformation” refers to false or misleading information intended to undermine the integrity of government, governance systems, and/or policies. Such overarching topics can be labeled a disinformation campaign’s “impact area”, the governance and public policy domain that a campaign is designed to influence. One disinformation campaign, however, often has multiple impact areas. Disinformation aimed at disrupting climate change action may also seek to undermine a political party, government, or policy agenda.
Topic:: Public Policy, Cities, Disinformation, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

425. Democratic by Design: Implementing and Innovating Democracy-Affirming Technologies

Author:: Caitlin Goldenberg, Adrienne Goldstein, Sharinee Jagtiani, and Lindsay Gorman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The emergence of critical new technologies, from quantum information tools to Artificial Intelligence (AI), has ushered in a new digital era. While these technologies promise greater efficiency and innovation to the benefit of society, if misused they can also help entrench repression and autocratic control. What is needed instead is a positive, rights-respecting vision of democratic innovation. GMF’s AI and Democracy programming, including its 2024 Elections Content Credentials Repository and 2024 AI and Democracy Hackathon, aimed to advance the development, use, and public understanding of democracy-affirming technologies (DATs)—that is, technologies that are intentionally designed to protect and promote democratic values. This report features insights from two pilot projects aimed at advancing the implementation of existing DATs and the innovation of new ones.
Topic:: Democracy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Technologies, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

426. Surveillance Capitalism in Fragile Democracies: Defending Journalism from Dual Domination

Author:: Emre Kizilkaya
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper investigates how surveillance capitalism enables a convergence of state authoritarianism and digital monopolies, posing an existential threat to fragile democracies by examining its corrosive effects on the news media in Turkey and Hungary. Drawing on document analysis and interviews with 24 journalists and media executives, it argues that a system of “dual domination” has emerged, wherein the state-led construction of an “economy of domination” through media capture and legal repression is amplified by the market-driven “instrumentarian power” of Big Tech platforms like Google. This symbiotic relationship creates a uniquely corrosive environment that systematically dismantles the free press, pollutes the information ecosystem with propaganda and disinformation, and makes independent journalism economically unviable. The analysis, framed by Shoshana Zuboff’s theories, concludes that this dynamic constitutes a “Second Tragedy of the Commons” and a slow-motion coup des gens, seizing sovereignty from the public and eroding the “right to the future tense.” In response, the paper proposes a framework for solutions grounded in Mathias Risse’s concept of justice, advocating for two pillars of action: first, the establishment of journalism as a legally protected global public good, and second, the formation of a global civic alliance to enforce structural and regulatory reforms that hold tech platforms accountable for their role in democratic backsliding.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Reform, Media, Journalism, Democratic Backsliding, Digital Platforms, and Surveillance Capitalism
Political Geography:: Turkey, Hungary, and Global Focus

427. From Globalisation to Geopolitics: The Changing Dynamics of World Order and their Implications for the EU

Author:: Richard Higgott
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In 2025, the narrative of globalisation has been replaced by geopolitics and great power competition. Today’s international system is increasingly shaped by four significant trends, influenced by strongman leadership: democratic backsliding, declining trust in the United States, fractured transatlantic relations, and a new mercantilism. This research report from LSE IDEAS’s Europe Initiative and authored by Richard Higgott is supported by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom. It discusses this shift from globalisation to geopolitics. The paper analyses the changing dynamics of world order including ‘middle powers’, the role of strongman leaders, and the implications for the European Union – concluding with strategic recommendations for European policymakers.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

428. Powerful Women, Men in Power: An Analysis of Kösem Sultan and Lady Macbeth

Author:: Kadriye Bozkurt
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: There has been an intricate relationship and interconnectedness between gender and power/authority throughout human culture and history. From the male rulers of kingdoms to the male leaders of nations, the power dynamic has been structured around male participation, with various forms of power in the hands of men. Two powerful fictional female characters created in Turkish and English literature, A. Turan Oflazoğlu’s Kösem Sultan and William Shakespeare’s Lady Macbeth, will be analysed in this study to reflect the distribution of power by gender. These two strong female characters at the centre of this study, are remarkable for their intelligence, ambition and lust for power. Since the qualities associated with incompletion and fragility are ascribed to women, they have only indirectly come to power because they are not men. By considering the practices that are effective in social and political life such as the sultanate system and the great chain of being in the fictional periods in which the plays are set, the link between the concept of power and gender will be revealed. The relationship between power and gender will also be evaluated in the context of Simone de Beauvoir's ideas on male domination and Michel Foucault's ideas on power, as they have a significant impact on the perception of power and gender in today’s societies. Therefore, this study will highlight the relationship of power dynamics with gender issues through the analysis of the plays Kösem Sultan and Macbeth by referring to the ideas of Foucault and Beauvoir.
Topic:: Power, Gender, William Shakespeare, Lady Macbeth, A. Turan Oflazoğlu, and Kösem Sultan
Political Geography:: Global Focus

429. Before the ‘New’: Reclaiming Indigenous Relational Ontologies through Linda Hogan’s Memoir The Woman Who Watches Over the World

Author:: Nesrin Yavaş
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This article critically examines the epistemological limitations of Western new materialist theory by foregrounding Indigenous relational ontologies, with Linda Hogan’s memoir The Woman Who Watches Over the World serving as a focal text. While new materialism has challenged anthropocentric paradigms by recognizing the agency of nonhuman entities, it frequently overlooks longstanding Indigenous philosophies in which land, matter, and spirit are inseparably entangled. This study highlights how Hogan’s narrative embodies a relational worldview where earth, animals, objects, and memory participate in the production of meaning and ethical responsibility. By framing Indigenous materialisms as autonomous theoretical systems rather than cultural supplements, the article redefines matter as sentient, storied, and historically embedded. This perspective not only destabilizes the perceived novelty of Western theory but also proposes a model of human–nonhuman relations grounded in reciprocity, place-based ethics, and spiritual kinship. The article contributes to current debates in environmental humanities and decolonial theory while establishing a foundation for future research on non-Western materialisms, multispecies worldviews, and local ontologies across global contexts.
Topic:: Relational Ontology, Indigenous Materialisms, Epistemic Colonization, and Linda Hogan
Political Geography:: Global Focus

430. A Bibliometric Analysis of Political Science Research on a Global Scale

Author:: Emre Aydilek
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This research aims to contribute to a macro-level understanding of the intellectual foundations of the field of political science by examining it in depth through bibliometric analysis and discovering the epistemological insights hidden in it, as well as the basic dimensions of studies in the discipline. Thus, it is objectives to provide basic data and guidance to academics working on the methodology of the discipline of political science. Accordingly, the trends, topics, and general themes of academic studies published in universally respected journals with high-impact factors in the field of political science will be identified. The article's original value is the first thorough bibliometric study of the discipline in Turkish national literature and one of the first few thorough bibliometric studies in international literature. This study conducted a brief literature review to examine key scientific texts on political science methodology that reflect general trends. Subsequently, data retrieved from two selected databases (Scopus and WoS) were analyzed and interpreted using text-mining tools (WOSviewer and R Studio). As a result of this analysis, 17 datasets and meaningful patterns emerged. Word clouds, bibliometric maps, heat maps, and word maps were obtained, which include the analysis of studies according to years, fields, types, impact values, factors, themes, trends, and countries with the most studies. The findings are interpreted in the conclusion, and a general trend in the discipline is presented.
Topic:: Political Science, Methodology, and Bibliometric Analysis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

431. A Comparative Analysis of the Piece “Op. 6 No: 2 Nocturne” by Clara Wieck Schumann, one of the Female Composers of the Romantic Period, with the Nocturnes of Frederic François Chopin

Author:: İlayda Çetin and M. Nevra Küpan
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This study includes a comparative analysis of the composition titled "Op.6 No.2 Nocturne" by Clara Wieck Schumann, a female composer from the Romantic era, with the nocturnes of Frederic François Chopin. The purpose of this research is to determine the similarities and differences between Clara Wieck Schumann's aforementioned work and the works of Frederic François Chopin, who is an important male composer of the same period, in the same form. In this study, firstly a literature review was conducted. Then, in line with the purpose of the research, a comparison of Clara Wieck Schumann's composition titled "Op.6 No:2 Nocturne" with Frederic François Chopin's compositions titled "Op.27 No:2 Nocturne" and "Op.9 No:2 Nocturne" was carried out using harmonic, form and style analysis methods. When examining the harmonic analysis of the compositions, including accompaniment and chord styles, ornaments, rhythmic structures, and stylistic features, it is observed that they exhibit a similar emotion and style. Accordingly, it can be inferred that Clara Wieck Schumann was influenced by Frederic François Chopin in her composition. The conducted analysis is of importance not only in determining the similarities and the differences between the works of both composers, but also in terms of increasing the visibility of female composers in the music world.
Topic:: Culture, Music, Frederic Chopin, and Clara Schumann
Political Geography:: Global Focus

432. A New Concept in Public Relations: A Systematic Review on "Corporate Social Advocacy"

Author:: Beris Artan Özoran and Aycan Ulusan
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: The increasing public demand for brands to contribute to the creation of a ‘more livable world’ has played a critical role in shaping the transformation of corporate strategies centered around corporate social advocacy. This shift has also necessitated further academic inquiry into the subject. In this context, this study aims to offer both a conceptual evaluation of corporate social advocacy and a systematic review of academic research conducted in this field. The findings suggest that corporate social advocacy is gaining substantial prominence in both corporate and academic contexts. However, the review also identifies notable methodological gaps within the existing body of literature. Furthermore, an important observation is that the majority of studies focus predominantly on U.S. corporations and societal issues, leading to a body of literature that is largely constrained to the U.S. context.
Topic:: Public Relations, Corporations, Social Responsibility, and Systematic Review
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

433. Empowering Blue Economy Communities through Data and Innovation

Author:: Genevieve Donnellon-May
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As the blue economy grows in importance—encompassing sectors from fisheries and aquaculture to maritime transport and offshore energy—so too must our understanding of the families and communities who power it. Given the continuing rise in commercial fishing demand and aquaculture expansion, the importance of ocean resources for global food security and economic stability has become even more critical. Unsustainable practices like overfishing and ocean acidification further threaten both marine ecosystems and community livelihoods. Coastal laborers and their families often remain invisible, underpaid, and vulnerable despite their oversized role in sustaining ocean-based industries. To ensure a more inclusive and sustainable ocean economy, a Targeted Research and Data Collection Program to gather comprehensive data collection and monitoring systems to recognize these contributions and enhance protections for entire communities, while also advancing Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 (sustainable oceans), is needed.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, Innovation, Data, Economic Stability, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Indo-Pacific

434. BRICS+ and the Global Game of International Law:Navigating Multilateral World Order and Soft PowerStrategies

Author:: Angelo Khumalo
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The basic nature of global governance and a feature of realism is that states are always propelledto act according to their interests and try to dominate global politics. International law attempts tomitigate this effect (1) . Technically speaking, there is no set way the law can be enforced beyondthe barriers of countries, so international law regulates universal domains such as human rights,trade, and diplomacy through customs, agreements, contracts, treaties, and institutions like theUnited Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) (2) .
Topic:: International Law, Multilateralism, Soft Power, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Global Focus

435. Applying a Dignity Lens in Migration and Displacement

Author:: Paul Clayton Perrin
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Recognizing that migration and displacement are longstanding elements of human history, the paper emphasizes the critical role of respecting the inherent dignity of migrating persons as an important part of the right-to-stay dialogue. Although international frameworks, such as the Sphere Handbook, the Paris Declaration, and UNHCR’s Durable Solutions, have provided a critical foundation for addressing many of the basic needs of migrating populations, they largely focus on material aspects of well-being, overshadowing the equally essential need for other aspects of one’s dignity — a recognition of the inherent equal value that each human being possesses — to be respected and upheld. This approach positions dignity as a luxury to be addressed only after other basic needs are met. However, evidence shows that ensuring physical safety, food, and shelter alone does not fulfill the complex needs of migrating individuals, who often experience emotional distress and social marginalization when their dignity is ignored. By framing dignity as an intrinsic human right that is not contingent on external conditions or something that can be distributed out of the back of a truck, the paper argues that organizations can foster deeper engagement with migrant communities. Two case studies — Georgia and Afghanistan — highlight the consequences of placing primacy on biophysical needs over respect for dignity. In Georgia, despite robust efforts to provide for material well-being, displaced persons reported significant emotional distress due to a sense of being marginalized and ignored. In Afghanistan, a disconnect between international aid organizations and local communities fostered resentment, exacerbating insecurity and undermining trust in humanitarian efforts. Both these cases underscore that fulfilling physical needs alone does not equate to a life with dignity. To improve our ability to uphold human dignity in the right-to-stay debate and in supporting migrating communities, three recommendations are proposed: (1) adopt a dignity-centered approach that values the immaterial aspects of human existence, (2) integrate dignity into accountability measures, and (3) tailor dignity-affirming practices to local needs. Only by elevating dignity to a core operational principle can humanitarian efforts more holistically address the complex challenges faced by displaced populations. In conclusion, this paper underscores the need for a transformative approach to humanitarian response that centers human dignity as a fundamental principle. As humanitarian organizations increasingly recognize the importance of dignity in displacement contexts, there is an opportunity to deepen engagement with affected communities, ensuring that their voices and values inform interventions. By embedding dignity within humanitarian frameworks, we can create responses that truly support displaced populations’ well-being, facilitating resilience and restoring agency in the face of displacement.
Topic:: Migration, Displacement, Dignity, and Right to Stay
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, South Asia, Eurasia, Georgia, and Global Focus

436. The Right to Remain and the Causes of Forced Migration

Author:: Fabio Baggio
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Pope Francis dedicated his Message for the 109th World Day of Migrants and Refugees to the freedom that should characterize one’s choice whether to migrate or remain. With his message, developed by constantly listening to the local Churches, the Holy Father wanted to promote a new debate on a right not yet codified at an international level: the right not to have to migrate, or more precisely, the right to remain in one’s homeland. The forced nature of many current migration flows requires a careful consideration of the causes of current migrations. The right to remain is pre-eminent, deeper, and broader than the right to migrate. It involves the possibility of participating in the common good, the right to live with dignity and have access to sustainable development. All of these rights should be effectively safeguarded in the countries of origin with the responsible involvement of the international community.
Topic:: Migration, Catholic Church, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:: Global Focus

437. Labor in the Green and Digital Jobs of the Future: What Kind of ‘Future’ Will Arrive and Under Which Conditions?

Author:: Aslı Aydın
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Sustainable development goals, increasing environmental threats and global competition are forcing countries to take steps towards green transition and digital transformation based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. In this so-called “twin transformation”, low-carbon and smart technology-oriented jobs are expected to increase rapidly and future jobs are expected to be shaped around these new trends. In this policy brief, the potential opportunities and risks in the twin transformation, including the gender equality dimension, are examined together, and discussion topics that are expected to benefit policymaking are put forward.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Labor Market, Sustainable Development, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

438. The Power of Transformative Skills: A Guide to Empowering the Next Generation

Author:: H. Ceren Zeytinoğlu
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Unlike traditional “soft skills,” transformative skills encompass not only effective communication and social behavior but also cognitive flexibility, emotional resilience, mental well-being, and personal growth. They are the foundation of a strong internal infrastructure that helps individuals adapt and lead in a rapidly changing world.
Topic:: Resilience, Labor Market, Skills, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

439. Elections, Power Transitions and the Risk of Atrocity Crimes

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: Genuine and credible elections present a crucial opportunity to reaffirm democratic norms, uphold the rule of law and ensure that people’s voices are heard. Yet, all too often elections shift from being a positive expression of democratic will to flashpoints for political violence and polarization. In 2024, a record number of people voted in elections – with more than 60 countries, representing nearly half of the world’s population, electing local, national and international representatives. However, many elections were marred by intimidation, violence and serious human rights violations, severely undermining the right to vote and to be elected. This policy brief draws on insights from a June 2024 event co-hosted by the European Union and the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect. It examines how electoral processes, particularly when held in conflict-affected, repressive or polarized environments, can exacerbate existing tensions and increase the risk of serious human rights violations and atrocity crimes. The brief outlines long-standing structural vulnerabilities and short-term triggers that often emerge throughout the electoral process. A rights-respecting, inclusive and transparent electoral process is essential not only for electoral integrity but also for preventing identity-based violence and atrocity crimes. The policy brief provides concrete recommendations to help national and international actors prevent and respond to election-related violence and atrocity risks.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Risk, Atrocities, and Transition of Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

440. Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Military Decision-Making Process: The Forgotten Lessons on the Nature of War

Author:: Vincenzo Gallitelli
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article examines the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into the military decision-making process (MDMP) through a multidisciplinary approach, with particular attention to the experimental COA-GPT system. While AI offers unprecedented opportunities to accelerate operational tempo, generates multiple courses of action (COAs), and reduces cognitive burdens on commanders and staff, the study warns against overreliance on quantitative metrics and algorithmic processes and outputs. Drawing on Carl von Clausewitz’s principles, Trevor N. Dupuy’s models, and historical failures such as Robert S. McNamara’s “body count” in Vietnam, the analysis highlights the enduring uncertainty and friction of war that cannot be captured by purely mathematical or deterministic models. AI’s risks of overfitting, black-box opacity, and the exclusion of moral, human, and contextual factors underscore the indispensable role of human judgment. The article emphasizes the need to adapt doctrine, organization, training, leadership, and infrastructure to the challenges and opportunities introduced by AI. The goal is to ensure that AI is employed as a powerful enabling tool that enhances human decision making rather than replacing it.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Artificial Intelligence, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Global Focus

441. Synthesizing Strategic Frameworks for Great Power Competition

Author:: Gavin Holtz
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article examines the theoretical foundations necessary for conceptualizing and operationalizing modern great power competition through the innovative synthesis of three influential military frameworks: Colonel John R. Boyd’s observe, orient, decide, act (OODA) loop, Colonel John A. Warden’s systems analysis, and Chinese colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui’s unrestricted warfare theory. The research demonstrates how complementary frameworks provide strategic practitioners with comprehensive capabilities for identifying systemic vulnerabilities, orchestrating cross-domain effects, and maintaining decisive advantage through superior decision-making processes. The analysis reveals how modern competition transcends traditional military boundaries, necessitating organizational architectures capable of implementing synchronized operations across multiple competitive domains. This theoretical synthesis supports the proposal for an Interagency Action Committee on China (IAC-C) and identifies the foundational principles of a cross-domain organizational framework.
Topic:: Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, Warfare, Great Powers, and Systems Analysis
Political Geography:: China, Global Focus, and United States of America

442. Beyond Linear Planning: How Artificial Intelligence Multiagent Systems Can Redefine Operational Art and Decision Making in Warfare

Author:: Jani Liikola and Petteri Blomvall
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Artificial intelligence (AI) is already reshaping work methodologies, but future disruptions will inevitably extend further, fundamentally influencing how we conceptualize and understand reality. The scale and pace of this disruption will accelerate significantly with the integration of AI agents and multiagent systems. Traditional linear military planning processes, which depend solely on human cognition, have repeatedly proven inadequate in confronting the complexities of contemporary battlespaces. This article explores the potential impacts of AI on operational art and highlights opportunities for military organizations to successfully reimagine operational cognition through collaborative frameworks that seamlessly integrate human and AI capabilities. The findings suggest multiple transformative impacts on existing linear cognitive paradigms and propose enhanced human-machine collaboration mental models.
Topic:: Artificial Intelligence, Decision-Making, Warfare, Multiparadigm Design, and Multiagent System
Political Geography:: Global Focus

443. The Nexus of Power, Culture, and Elite Interactions: A Neoclassical Realist Framework for Foreign Policy Analysis

Author:: Ayla Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Neoclassical Realism (NCR) combines international and domestic factors, offering a multidimensional framework for analyzing foreign policy. While this integration of external and internal dynamics has advanced foreign policy analysis, NCR remains constrained by its reliance on static unit-level variables. This limitation impedes NCR’s potential to fully bridge International Relations (IR) and Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA). In particular, NCR’s treatment of ideational variables as fixed overlooks the dynamic role of elite interactions, which significantly shape a state’s specific and fluid actions toward certain regions or actors— even under stable systemic pressures and enduring strategic-cultural ideas. This article addresses this gap by proposing the inclusion of inter-elite interactions as an intervening variable within the NCR framework. It argues that while the distribution of power sets the parameters for foreign policy, strategic culture and inter-elite interactions shape the specific foreign policy choices. By incorporating a socio-psychological focus on elite relations, the paper aims to enhance NCR’s explanatory power and fully unlock its potential for FPA. This theoretical development offers a more comprehensive framework for analyzing the complexities of foreign policy, advancing a systematic and integrative approach that bridges the divide between agents and structures, and strengthens the theoretical link between IR and FPA.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Behavior, Elites, Decision-Making, Strategic Culture, and Relative Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

444. Robots, shoring patterns, and employment: What are the linkages?

Author:: Hylke Dijkstra and Konstantin M. Wacker
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: In this paper, we analyse how robotisation is associated with industry output and its production inputs. We therefore link data on employment, robotisation and input-output relations for 15 manufacturing industries across 35 countries. Analysing the decade prior to 2018, we show that robotising industries experience increases in output and approximately equiproportional increases in value added, employment, domestic intermediate inputs and foreign intermediate inputs. Owing to this equiproportionality, robotising industries do not see a significant change in their domestic input ratios (value added plus domestic intermediates relative to total inputs). Our empirical results document that robotising industries are thriving in terms of output generation, that those thriving industries are internationally well integrated, and that their output expansion is associated with employment generation. Industries that use an increasing share of domestic production inputs generally experience less favourable output and employment developments, although this association is imprecisely estimated.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Global Value Chains, Robotics, Production, and Reshoring
Political Geography:: Global Focus

445. Revisiting the distance elasticity and investment motives in the FDI gravity model: Aggregate vs. sector-level evidence

Author:: Nicola Rebmann and Konstantin M. Wacker
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper re-examines foreign direct investment motives in the ‘FDI gravity’ model (Kleinert and Toubal, 2010), focusing on the role of distance. More precisely, we investigate whether aggregate and pooled gravity models for FDI obscure relevant heterogeneities across sectors. This is possible through the novel MREID dataset, which provides us with FDI data at the 2-digit NAICS level for 184 countries over the period 2010 to 2020. Our results reveal that aggregate and pooled models mask significant sector heterogeneities in two aspects: (i) in the importance of horizontal versus vertical FDI motives, and (ii) in the distance elasticity. The latter reflects that distance potentially captures more complex sector-specific components than are captured in the current gravity model for FDI.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, and Gravity Model
Political Geography:: Global Focus

446. Bridges and Walls as Tools of International Politics

Author:: Jan Zielonka
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Bridges and walls are physical constructions, but in politics they assume vari- ous cognitive roles of vast symbolic importance. First and most commonly, bridges and walls represent different attitudes to borders understood as com- plex institutions defining the relationship between territory, authority, iden- tity, and rights.1 Second, bridges and walls signify contrasting ways of coping with different kinds of “others”: competing states, empires, or civilizations. Third, bridges and walls refer to distinct conceptions of power politics, one relying on crude military and economic strength, and the other on interna- tional norms and laws. This article will flesh out how intellectuals and practitioners employ the concepts of bridges and walls to convey important messages, assert conve- nient narratives, and legitimate their behavior. All famous bridges and walls have their specific historical and political meaning, and in the initial part of the article, I will provide some examples of those meanings. However, bridges and walls are also employed as universal political metaphors signaling pre- ferred ways of practicing international politics. One interpretation signifies open borders, multiculturalism, and reconciliation, while the other represents sealed borders, self-help, and deterrence. In the subsequent sections, I will present the essence of these universal political metaphors in the discussion of power politics, the treatment of the “other,” and the perceptions of borders. The symbolic importance of bridges and walls should not be underestimated. This is because symbols are “central features of organized human life, helping to define perception, shaping the way we view the world and under- stand what goes on within it.”2 If a political actor manages to shape other actors’ understanding of security, prosperity, identity, and dignity, then there is no need to apply costly sticks and carrots to make these actors behave as said actor wishes them to. In other words, a transactional way of conducting foreign policy may prove to be less effective in meeting declared objectives than policy based on shared values, institutions, and visions of the world. Moreover, symbols define friends and foes, shape our fears and de- sires, and mobilize us to action, to display solidarity, or to accept sacrifices. National symbols, such as flags, anthems, or monuments, have been used and misused for the past three or so centuries to define cultural identities, launch wars, tolerate autocratic rulers, or defend a certain statehood. French sociologist Émile Durkheim even argued in 1912 that “social life in all its aspects and in every period of its history [has been] made possible only by a vast symbolism.”3 Metaphors of walls and bridges have always been part of the symbolic politics shaping our thinking about the notion of good and ill in politics, about the most appropriate forms of international engagement, and about our conception of peace and security. Today walls are clearly more in vogue than bridges, but I will argue that bridges have a proven record of enhancing peace and prosperity that should not be erased from our memory by the politics of fear and prejudice that make us erect new walls.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Ideology, Symbolism, and International Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

447. How Infrastructure Reflects Rapprochement and Divisions: From Old and New Silk Roads to Contemporary Conflict Zones and Peace Agreements

Author:: Irina Tsukerman
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: “What I do is the opposite of building walls. I build bridges,” wrote the famed Spanish-Swiss architect and structural engineer Santiago Calatrava, emphasizing bridges’ physical and metaphorical ability to put an end to separation, fulfill longing, and break down barriers. Calatrava’s distinctive elegance is a paean to aesthetic freedom, the use of natural forms, and inte- gration of traffic with pedestrian and cyclist routes.1 His bridges are an el- evated response to the constraining modern trends of gratuitous minimalism, eschewing economy and “structural efficiency” in favor of sweeping curves, which sing praise to nature through the use of frames resembling natural ele- ments. The use of modern technology and access to massive infrastructure has allowed Calatrava to share his expansive visions through these colossi of movement. Today, Calatrava’s bridges span the world, providing a word- less testimony to the triumph of the human spirit and its capability to close divides. Along similar lines, playwright Mehmet Murat Ildan posited: “The wisdom of bridges comes from the fact that they know both sides, they know both shores!”2 Bridges have always held transitional significance: between past, present, and future; between imagination and reality. Not only territorial in nature, bridges advance human connection—sometimes through a voluntary em- brace, other times through forced common experience. Exchanges of ideas are not always positive; dissemination of cultures and sharing of thoughts across divides can lead to renaissance and enlightenment, but can also plunge the world into dark ages through the spread of disinformation, fanaticism, or bigotry. And in many cases, even when the connectivity—whether physical or symbolic—leads to constructive, life-affirming results, the effort of creating the bridges may be burdensome and painful. For instance, in The Bridge Over the River Kwai, a historical novel which was turned into an eponymous classic film, construction of a bridge under unbearable conditions came to symbolize endurance as well as a way to transcend duress through professionalism and dignity. And while the bridge was supposed to aid Imperial Japan’s military’s war efforts, the purposes become emblematic of the prisoners’ forced labor and suffering, with its destruction being an act of resistance against oppres- sion. In the novel and the movie, the nature of connection is subverted. Rather than facilitating relations and peaceful exchanges, the bridge advances a deadly march.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Infrastructure, Rapprochement, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

448. Global Public Opinion and the Growth of Right-Wing Populism

Author:: Richard Wike
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: The “super year” of elections in 2024 was unprecedented in voting history, with citizens in more than 60 countries going to the polls. While it was generally a difficult year for incumbents, it was a strong one for challengers, including several from the populist right. Leveraging economic frustrations, divisive cultural issues, and anger at a political class perceived to be out of touch with ordinary citizens, right-wing populist leaders and parties made gains at the ballot box in several nations, building on the growing success they have seen in recent years.1 One of the most high-profile results in 2024 was Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris in the United States presidential election, which returned the leader of the populist “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement to the White House after four years of Demo- cratic control. Right-wing populists also gained ground in European parlia- mentary elections. Austria’s Freedom Party, for example, had its best election result ever. The Alternative for Germany Party became the first far-right political party to win a state election in the country since World War II. And even though the cordon sanitaire—a bargain among political parties to keep the far right out of governing coalitions—ultimately kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally out of power in France, the party nonetheless increased the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly. Parties on the right did well outside Europe and the United States too. For example, El Salvador’s incumbent President Nayib Bukele won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote, buoyed by strong support for his crackdown on criminal gangs. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto won the presidential election amid public concerns about his human rights record. And—though forced to form a coalition government for the first time—Indian Prime Min- ister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive victory, and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which captured 240 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, remains a dominant force in the country’s politics.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Elections, Populism, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:: India, Global Focus, and United States of America

449. The Fight Against Tax Havens, Bank Secrecy, and Base Erosion: Adaptation and Evolution of the Swiss System

Author:: Jacques Pitteloud and Xavier Oberson
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: For decades, the Swiss international tax policy regarding the exchange of information has been governed by strict rules that uphold banking secrecy. In a nutshell, tax authorities could not have direct access to the bank’s figures of account holders unless a criminal tax case was at stake. International exchange of information in tax matters was only possible to claim the benefits of a double taxation convention (DTC)—under the so-called “limited interna- tional administrative assistance” rule. Beginning in the 2000s, the situation started to evolve dramatically, so that Switzerland had to drastically modify its policy. Two decades later, it appears that Switzerland has totally adapted its legislation and international tax policy, both in favor of transparency and to address the concerns of “base erosion and profits shifting” (BEPS) of “multi-national enterprises” (MNE). Switzerland is nowadays actively participating in all major international forums, such as the OECD, the Inclusive Frame- work, the United Nations (UN), and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to continue adapting its legal system in accordance with accepted standards. Despite this paradigm shift, it seems that this situation has not been fairly ap- praised everywhere in the world. The purpose of this article is thus both to respond to some of the criti- cisms that are often still heard, to try to analyze and describe the evolution of the Swiss system in favor of global tax transparency, and to address BEPS concerns of MNE. We believe that the importance of the efforts, develop- ments, and works accomplished by Switzerland, sometimes in emergency, but always under sound constitutional and democratic processes, deserve a fair and balanced perspective.
Topic:: Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Banking, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:: Europe, Switzerland, and Global Focus

450. Neglected Tropical Diseases: Success in Achieving Development Gains for the Poorest

Author:: David Molyneux, Simon Bush, Phillip Downs, and Sarah Bartlett
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Neglected tropical diseases are a group of diseases that share common features despite having varied causes for their resulting clinical conditions. They affect one to two billion individuals worldwide, exacerbating existing societal ineq- uities by primarily affecting impoverished and politically marginalized groups in tropical and sub-tropical regions.2 These diseases lead to stigma, disability, and social isolation that make accessing appropriate healthcare, including mental health treatment, increasingly difficult. Advocacy efforts concerning the impact of NTDs on populations and the economic benefits of interventions have led to their inclusion in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). NTD interventions have well-defined economic rates of return, due to effective partnerships, proven successes, and generous pharmaceutical donations.3 While research on NTDs remains limited, effective strategies exist for their control, mitigation, or eradication—if prioritized by governments and donors. This essay aims to raise awareness of NTDs among policymakers, em- phasizing their significant yet overlooked impact on global health policy, as well as the successes and challenges of NTD programs thus far. It details the effective and sustained collaboration between endemic countries, bilateral and philanthropic donors, international organizations, non-governmental development organizations (NGDOs), pharmaceutical donors, and academic institutions. Most importantly it argues for the importance of investing in NTDs within the context of poverty alleviation and development.
Topic:: Public Health, Policymaking, Sustainable Development, and Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS