Political Geography: Global Focus

351. Pandemic Preparation and Response: Ensuring Equitable Access to Essential Countermeasures

Author:: Barbara Buckinx and Brian Mhando
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This policy report summarizes insights from a conference organized by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination and Global Health Impact’s Pandemic Health Equity Working Group on February 28, 2025. The conference, titled “Pandemic Preparation and Response: Ensuring Equitable Access to Essential Countermeasures,” examined structural and legal limitations to pandemic response in light of the World Health Organization’s Pandemic Agreement. The event brought together public health experts, former government officials, legal scholars, and ethicists, with the aims of: •discussing intellectual property (IP) solutions to enhance progress toward readiness to combat future pandemics and to secure equitable access to essential countermeasures; •examining how downstream service delivery can be addressed to further strengthen and identify gaps in the Pandemic Agreement; and •proposing solutions toward the development of an agreement and medical countermeasures platform that is equitable and responsive to the needs of all people on the globe.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, Public Health, Pandemic, and Preparation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

352. What Counts as Legal Knowledge in the Age of AI?

Author:: Thomas Skouteris
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: AI is here—like it or not. Educators need to create new ways to facilitate the entrance of this technology into legal and academic spaces
Topic:: Education, Law, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, and Academia
Political Geography:: Global Focus

353. Beyond Automation: Managing the Integration of AI into Human Civilization

Author:: ChatGPT
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: As AI transforms education, law, and global policy, how can we integrate it wisely—balancing innovation with ethics, equity, and human agency in everyday life?
Topic:: Education, Law, Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, Equity, Agency, ChatGPT, and Global Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

354. Hybrid Writing: Authority, Ethics, Agency

Author:: Thomas Skouteris
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Though generative artificial intelligence has facilitated the emulation of form, it cannot take responsibility for what is written. Agency remains at the heart of writing once all else can be automated
Topic:: Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, Authority, Writing Center, and Agency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

355. Policy Responses to Climate Impacts in Light of Fragility, Instability, and Climate Security Dynamics

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: In this policy brief, we critically examine the ‘double burden’ for countries that are highly vulnerable to and affected by climate change impacts while experiencing political instability, fragility, or conflict. Vulnerabilities compound and effective responses are constrained in these states, which receive disproportionately low and insufficient support through climate finance and tend to be forgotten in climate action. The global fragility landscape is becoming increasingly complex, marked by the convergence of unprecedented climate extremes, rising state fragility, and the related deepening of socio-economic vulnerabilities. The 1.5-degree limit of global average temperature increase was exceeded in 2024. There now is a high risk for escalating compound risks, with mounting human and economic losses, including loss of life and intense pressure on social cohesion. This comes as already more than two billion people live in highly or extremely fragile contexts – a number which is only expected to rise. Policy responses in fragile and conflict-affected settings need to be thoroughly context-specific. Policy makers thus face complex challenges, the finance gap being a central obstacle. Current climate finance flows remain biased towards stable contexts, leaving critical gaps for those most in need. Concrete barriers that restrict access include donor risk perceptions, burdensome procedures, and preference for large-scale projects, which often exceed local capacity. Debt distress further amplifies the need for grants, yet the global share of grant-based finance remains limited. Despite these structural obstacles, locally embedded responses demonstrate the potential for flexible, trust-based, and highly adaptive approaches that bypass the rigidities of conventional finance.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Instability, Fragility, and Localization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

356. Localising the Indicators of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: This policy outlines the necessity and strategy for systematically integrating Locally-Led Adaptation (LLA) principles into the measurable indicators of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), adopted as the “UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience.” The GGA aims to bolster adaptive capacity and resilience globally, particularly for vulnerable developing nations. However, its effectiveness hinges on operationalizing its broad thematic and functional targets at the community level. Analysis shows only 35 percent of the proposed 100 GGA indicators directly align with LLA principle. 60 percent show potentially alignment and 5 percent show none. Strongest alignment is observed in poverty eradication and livelihoods (80%) and cultural heritage and knowledge (75%), while implementation (20%), infrastructure and settlements (29%), and monitoring, evaluation, and learning (0%) remain weak. Better integration of LLA enablers into the GGA indicators is needed if the global goal is going to reflect LLA. Participatory design, disaggregated data, and transparent finance channels should be prioritized to reach local actors with resources and decisions relevant. This policy brief lays out a a shift in indicator finalization to ensure that global accountability mechanisms genuinely reflect the experiences, knowledge, and priorities of local communities, women, youth and marginalized groups, who are on the frontline of climate impacts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Resilience, Adaptation, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Localization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

357. Digitalization and the politics of tax in low-income states

Author:: Alex Yeandle
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The digitalization of low-income economies has made it easier for governments to collect tax, yet many still fail to raise adequate revenues. Why would policy makers in urgent need of resources not fully leverage these new tools? I argue that governments remain constrained by public opinion: digital taxes are perceived as unfair, unaccountable, and lacking tangible benefit among the large groups of voters they affect. As a result, public support for digital taxes depends heavily on how they are designed. I test this argument with a conjoint experiment in Malawi focused on mobile transaction levies, a common form of digital tax introduced across Africa that has provoked strong backlash. Specific design choices, like earmarking revenues for local services or exempting small-scale users, can significantly affect support. This underscores broader political constraints on building fiscal capacity, even as technical limits on the state recede.
Topic:: Government, Public Opinion, Tax Systems, Digitalization, and Fiscal Capacity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

358. Geoeconomics and Conflict: A Review and Open Questions

Author:: Eoin McGuirk and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We examine the intersection of two subfields within political economy: geoeconomics and conflict. Geoeconomics is primarily concerned with the use of "economic weapons" of coercion, while the conflict literature mainly focuses on military weapons and war. We propose bridging these two approaches, focusing on the international dimension of conflict. We start by reviewing the existing literature linking both fields, in particular research on the relationship between trade and war and on the use of geoeconomic tools such as foreign aid and sanctions. We then highlight four main directions for future research. First, we call for a broader view of the geoeconomic toolkit, as rogue leaders do not limit themselves to economic coercion. In addition to economic weapons, future research should also consider more aggressive—and often costlier—forms of intervention short of war, including sabotage, cyberattacks, covert operations, and the sponsorship of terrorism or insurgency. Second, we require a better understanding of how geoeconomic tools affect the likelihood of conflict. Do sanctions, strategic tariffs, or military aid provoke or deter war? Third, more research is needed on the domestic political economy of geoeconomic actions and their link with conflict. When and why do governments and citizens support the use of economic versus noneconomic weapons? Finally, we stress the importance of research on explicitly peacemaking tools of diplomacy, including mediation, security guarantees, and transparency initiatives.
Topic:: Globalization, Political Economy, Conflict, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

359. Economic Insecurity: Trade Dependencies and Their Weaponization in History

Author:: Martin Bernstein, Josefin Meyer, Kevin H. O'Rourke, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Do trade dependencies leave countries vulnerable to geopolitical coercion? We study the economic costs of trade and financial sanctions, from 1920 to the present. We first develop a continuous measure of sanction intensity, using bilateral commodity-level data to calculate the importance of specific flows that fall under sanctions. We find that sanctions inflict relatively small costs on average: sanctioning 1% of GDP worth of imports or exports leads to approximately 0.3 percentage points of lost GDP over a 5-year period and a 0.1 percentage point increase in unemployment. However, we show that sanctions are far more costly for countries whose trade is highly concentrated, and for countries that rely heavily on exporting primary commodities. Low income and developing countries appear most vulnerable to trade sanctions, while high income financial centers and some EU countries are among the most exposed to financial sanctions.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Sanctions, Trade, Vulnerability, Coercion, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

360. Is Davos More Than a Boondoggle?

Author:: Andreas Fuchs, Sebastian Leue, and Andrew K. Rose
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Since 1971, the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos has attracted the leadership of global corporations. Attendance may offer economic benefits through networking and political support or provide only private gains without measurable impact. Through creating a novel database of WEF attendees (2009-2018) matched with firm-level data, we analyze stock market performance, corporate ratings, and environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) scores. Regression results, including annual and daily event studies, suggest that WEF attendance does not systematically improve stock performance or credit ratings. However, WEF attendance positively impacts ESG scores, especially the social sub-score, indicating beneficial takeholder effects.
Topic:: Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Financial Markets, Business, Stock Markets, and World Economic Forum
Political Geography:: Global Focus

361. Geoeconomics

Author:: Cathrin Mohr and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and embargoes. Second, the geopolitics of international trade, especially work on coercion and fragmentation. Third, research on the geopolitics of international finance, which focuses on currency dominance and state-directed capital flows. Fourth, the literature on geopolitical risk and its spillovers to the domestic economy, e.g. on investments, credit, and inflation. Fifth, the economics of war, in particular research on trade and war and on military production. As geopolitical tensions grow, we expect the field to grow substantially in the coming years.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Sanctions, Geopolitics, Coercion, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

362. Who wins wars?

Author:: Jonathan Federle, Dominic Rohner, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal effect of windfall gains on winning chances in interstate conflicts. We find a statistically significant and quantitatively large impact of windfall gains on winning odds and show that a key channel of transmission is a surge in military spending, after an exogenous increase in government revenues.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Military Spending, Fiscal Policy, Armed Conflict, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

363. Why Member State Engagement Needs to Be at the Heart of UN80 to Unlock Its Success

Author:: Thibault Camelli and Fernando Marani
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Six months after its launch, the Secretary-General’s “UN80” reform initiative is still widely seen as lacking meaningful and systematic member state engagement. This perception has created distrust among delegations, weakened political traction, and hampered momentum as the Secretary-General’s term is drawing to a close. As the world leaders gathered in New York for the “General Debate” at the end of September to launch the 80th session of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, very few actually mentioned reform. More striking even, the few who did lamented a process they essentially regarded as technocratic, administrative, and internal to the Secretariat. Without a clear role for delegations, permanent representatives, and capitals, the process risks lacking legitimacy and member states’ ownership. The main challenge is the absence of deliberate design. The fragmented UN governance—across mandates, committees, boards, and subsidiary bodies—results in an already arcane system, not unusual for UN Reform, but challenging for delegations to navigate. However, it is not inevitable. Entry points exist to anchor reform legitimacy, align processes, and mobilize capitals. Experience from previous cycles, from the 2005 World Summit follow-up to the 2017 repositioning of the UN development system, shows that reforms only gained traction when member states were explicitly engaged through regular political dialogues, articulated with a strong political leadership from the Secretariat. Strategic adjustments are both urgent and feasible. This paper proposes a member state engagement toolkit across four dimensions: substance, scope, modalities, and dynamics. Recommendations include appointing permanent representatives as focal points, creating light coordination mechanisms, convening regular cross-regional dialogues and feedback loops, and empowering decision-shapers through targeted support and structured briefings. Such measures would not only enhance ownership but also reduce political risk for the Secretary-General by spreading accountability across the membership. The window for recalibration is narrow but real. In the immediate aftermath of High-Level Week launching the 80th session of the General Assembly, there is still time to build shared ownership of the UN80 reform. Credible engagement is not just a procedural improvement but a political necessity. Without it, the initiative risks being seen as Secretariat-driven, reinforcing doubts about whether the UN can apply to itself the same principles it promotes to others. To address these risks, this paper sets out a practical toolkit of 10 recommendations for strengthening member state engagement in UN80. The recommendations are structured across four dimensions (substance, scope, modalities, and dynamics). A distinction was also made between measures that require Secretariat action and those that depend on the authority of the President of the General Assembly and member states. Taken together, they outline both immediate adjustments for the UN80 cycle and longer-term reforms to embed engagement more systematically. Table 1 below summarizes these recommendations. To operationalize these 10 recommendations beyond the four dimensions that helped identify them, we reframed them into three overarching priorities that capture the essential conditions for reform to succeed: Ensure transparent information flows: information is the foundation, as predictable updates and clear pathways allow delegations and capitals to prepare and engage. Mobilize political leadership: leadership is the driver, as permanent representatives and capitals must convert information into political traction and coherence. Sustain effective oversight: oversight is the guarantor, as decision-shapers require tools to monitor implementation and maintain accountability. Read together, these three priorities provide a coherent logic to ensure effective member states engagement, and a simple structure for assessing whether UN80 is on track.
Topic:: United Nations, Governance, Reform, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

364. Towards Effective Prevention: A Strategic Approach to Addressing the Underlying Causes of Violence and the UN’s Rol

Author:: Céline Monnier
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Understanding the impact of prevention efforts is a key focus of this year’s Peacebuilding Architecture Review (PBAR). However, measuring this impact has historically been challenging, particularly due to the difficulty of assessing what did not happen (e.g., the outbreak of conflict or violence). This paper outlines an approach pioneered with support from NYU’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC) by developing an analytical tool for practitioners and decision-makers. The first section examines how measuring changes in risk and protective factors can help national actors assess their vulnerabilities and strengths. It then explores how member states, through the PBAR, can enhance the United Nation (UN) peacebuilding architecture to better support national and local actors in identifying and addressing these factors. In particular, integrating this risk and protective factors approach into national prevention strategies can be critical in ensuring their effectiveness.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacebuilding, and Violence Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

365. Managing Peace Operations: How to Exit the Groundhog Day Time Loop of Peace Operations Reform

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: United Nations (UN) peace operations currently face a crisis of confidence. No large mission has been launched in over a decade, existing missions struggle to implement their mandates, and the UN is increasingly marginalized from political processes. Although geopolitical divisions are a factor, the structures, processes, and mindsets of the Secretariat are also to blame. Despite successive attempts at reform over the years, challenges identified over numerous reviews in recent decades persist. This report examines why previous reform initiatives have floundered. It then examines four persistent challenges affecting peace operations today—the erosion of the primacy of politics, the distinction between peacekeeping operations and special political missions, templated mandates, and the absence of meaningful accountability for military and police performance—to identify why these problems exist and what practical measures can be taken by member states and the Secretariat to overcome them.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Reform
Political Geography:: Global Focus

366. How the Multilateral Development Banks Complement the UN Peacebuilding Architecture in Preventing Conflict and Violence

Author:: Natalie Briggs, Joris de de Mooij, and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: International Financial Institutions (IFIs), particularly the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), play a crucial role in supporting global peacebuilding efforts. These institutions provide the financial resources and technical expertise necessary to address the underlying causes of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) in vulnerable regions. This policy brief aims to examine how MDBs complement the peacebuilding architecture of the United Nations (UN) and what entry points exist for strengthening partnerships towards preventing violence and conflict in the context of the 2025 Peacebuilding Architecture Review. It is based on desk research and expert consultations with four of the MDBs, including the World Bank, African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank and Islamic Development Bank.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacebuilding, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and International Financial Institutions (IFIs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

367. Unusual Suspects: Overlooked Avenues for the Prevention of Recruitment Into Non-State Armed Groups

Author:: Joanne Richards
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: When discussing why individuals join non-state armed groups, practitioners often refer to factors such as poverty, unemployment, and ideological indoctrination. As a result, many recruitment prevention efforts focus on counter-narratives and job creation. In contrast, this policy brief highlights three factors linked to recruitment that are often overlooked: situational avoidance, defection from non-state armed groups, and sensation seeking. These factors open up creative avenues for the prevention of voluntary and/or forced recruitment, including opportunities for situational prevention, links to the prevention of gender-based violence (GBV), and programs for non-violent sensation seeking. Practitioners should examine these (and other) overlooked factors and incorporate them into national strategies and action plans. They should also explore links between recruitment prevention efforts and programs that provide support to ex-combatants.
Topic:: Recruitment, Non State Actors, Violence Prevention, Peacebuilding, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

368. Global Terrorism Index 2025

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Terrorism remains a persistent global threat, with 2024 marking another year of shifting patterns and evolving challenges with the geographic reach of terrorism spreading. The number of countries experiencing at least one terrorist incident increased from 58 to 66, the most countries affected since 2018. In 2024, more countries deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism, while only 34 showed improvement. Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organisation in 2024, responsible for 1,805 deaths across 22 countries. The four major terrorist organisations, IS, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and al-Shabaab continued to increase their activity, with deaths attributed to these groups increasing by 11 per cent to 4,204. In 2023, these groups were active in 29 countries which increased to 30 countries in 2024. In 2024, 36 per cent of terrorist attacks were not claimed by an organisation. IEP has developed a machine learning model to assign these incidents to likely groups. The analysis found that deaths attributed to IS would have been 58 per cent higher, while those linked to JNIM would have been 176 per cent higher. This underscores the challenges in accurately assessing the impact of different terrorist organisations. In 2024, deaths from terrorism fell to 7,555, representing a 13 per cent decline from the previous year. This reduction was entirely due to the large spike in the prior year from the Hamas October 7th attack, otherwise deaths would have been approximately the same. The number of terrorist attacks also declined, falling by three per cent to 3,492. The drop in incidents was primarily driven by an 85 per cent decrease in terrorist activity in Myanmar. Excluding Myanmar, global terrorist attacks would have increased by eight per cent. In the West, lone actor terrorism is on the rise with terrorist attacks increasing from 32 to 52 in 2024. These attacks are typically carried out by youths, often in their teens, who have no formal ties to terrorist organisations. Instead, they become radicalised through online content, constructing personal ideologies that often blend conflicting viewpoints influenced via access to fringe forums, gaming environments, encrypted messaging apps and the dark web. Because there are no affiliations, it means these types of attacks are difficult for intelligence agencies to track. Social media algorithms also accentuate biases, pushing disaffected youth towards more radicalised content. In Europe, one in five persons arrested for terrorism is legally classified as a child. In Europe, terrorist incidents doubled to 67, including attacks by IS and Hamas. The resurgence of attacks was particularly notable in seven Western countries - Sweden, Australia, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland, with Germany being the worst ranked nation at 27th on the Index. There are now seven Western countries ranked amongst the 50 most impacted countries on the GTI. Meanwhile, in the US, antisemitic and Islamophobic hate crimes escalated sharply following the start of the Gaza war, with FBI-recorded incidents targeting the Jewish community rising by 270 per cent in just two months. Similar patterns emerged in Europe and Australia, where attacks on synagogues were reported throughout the year. Terrorism in the Sahel has increased significantly, with deaths rising nearly tenfold since 2019. In 2024, the Sahel accounted for 51 per cent of all terrorism deaths, while overall conflict deaths in the region exceeded 25,000 for the first time since the inception of the Index. Of these, 3,885 were attributed to terrorism. Terrorism deaths here are now ten times higher than in 2019. The Sahel remains the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024 with the number of countries affected increasing. Five of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are in this region. Although Burkina Faso remains the most affected country, both deaths and attacks declined, falling by 21 and 57 per cent respectively, however the country is still responsible for a fifth of all terrorism deaths globally. Niger highlights how fragile progress in reducing terrorism deaths can be. In 2024, the country recorded the largest increase in terrorism deaths globally, rising by 94 per cent to a total of 930, reversing previous improvements from 2022 when it had the second largest improvement. Niger’s example may mean that the improvements in Burkina Faso are transitory. Geopolitical changes continue to shape security dynamics across the Sahel. The Alliance of Sahelian States, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has moved away from the West, instead strengthening ties with Russia and China. This shift, along with the bloc’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, has created opportunities for groups such as JNIM to expand their activities into coastal West Africa. Togo recorded its worst year for terrorism since the inception of the Index, reflecting the broader spread of terrorist activity beyond the Sahel’s traditional hotspots.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Youth, Threat Assessment, and Lone Wolf Attacks
Political Geography:: Global Focus

369. Lone Wolf and Youth Terrorism

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Over the last 15 years, the nature of terrorism in the West has undergone a noticeable shift. Since the mid-2010s, most terrorist attacks in the West have been carried out by individuals who are not affiliated with a particular group, do not have a clear ideology, or who pledged allegiance to a group but did not have direct ties to any existing members. While large-scale, highly coordinated plots carried out by recognised organisations have not vanished, fatal incidents increasingly originate from individuals acting on their own initiative, often referred to as “lone wolves”. These attackers may subscribe to a particular ideology or interact with extremist communities online, yet they do not necessarily receive formal in-person training or direct organisational resources. Historically, lone terrorist scenarios are not new and date back to ancient times. The period between 1878 and 1934 was the era of anarchist terrorism where most actors were lone wolves because of the rejection of organised leadership. One of the earliest prominent lone wolf attacks was the assassination of US President McKinley in 1901. What distinguishes the current wave is the way in which rapid radicalisation can occur online, particularly through social media, which allows for easy access to terrorist propaganda, and the ability to self-organise and commit violent acts with minimal face-to-face contact. Additionally, growing involvement of disaffected young people amplifies the risks of lone wolf terrorism. In some countries in the West, such as the UK, one out of every five terror suspects is under 18. Cultural alienation, easy exposure to violent propaganda and the increase in youth mental health issues, all contribute to increasing the risk of young people becoming involved in violent extremism. In addition, minors often trigger fewer warnings within security frameworks, enjoy certain privacy protections, and, if apprehended, may be subject to less severe legal penalties. Together, these factors have produced a changing threat landscape, which requires rethinking conventional understandings of extremist violence and how best to prevent it.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Youth, Ideology, Recruitment, and Lone Wolf Attacks
Political Geography:: Global Focus

370. Official Development Assistance

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Amidst rapidly shifting geopolitics, major donors such as the United States, the United Kingdom and European Union (EU) countries have announced significant reductions to their annual Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitments. In 2023, contributions from these countries accounted for 63 per cent of all ODA flows. A key driver of the current situation has been the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has led to unprecedented aid allocations to Ukraine. In 2023, Ukraine received $37 billion in ODA, equating to 14 per cent of all ODA disbursed in that year. In addition to ODA, military aid allocations to date have totalled $128 billion. Given the current climate, this report presents economic projections under various scenarios, indicating that ODA could decline by 20 to 40 per cent in the coming years. This would result in reductions of between $50 and $115 billion less aid relative to 2023 levels. In such scenarios, sub-Saharan Africa, MENA and Latin America could see cuts of 30-40 per cent in their ODA inflows, exacerbating risks of economic downturns, political instability, and humanitarian crises. The economies that will be most affected by ODA cuts are also in the least peaceful countries in the world. Most at risk include Afghanistan, Yemen, Central African Republic, and Somalia. Existing and emerging donors are unlikely to be able to fill the gap. Countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye contribute less than five per cent to the international aid system. With US support for Ukraine in question, EU countries may need to further increase their contributions to Ukraine and boost domestic military spending. Calls to raise EU military spending to five per cent of GDP could require an additional $560 billion annually, diverting funds from other sectors. In a climate of shrinking resources and rising demand, there is an urgent need for reforms that enhance the efficiency, transparency, and data-driven targeting of ODA. Investing in robust monitoring and evaluation systems is essential to ensure that limited aid funds yield maximum developmental and economic benefits.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Donors, Development Assistance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

371. Global Peace Index 2025

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 19th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. It uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators to measure the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. The 2025 GPI finds that global peacefulness continues to decline and that many of the leading factors that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of WWII. More countries are increasing their levels of militarisation against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, increasing conflict, the breakup of traditional alliances and rising economic uncertainty.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Geopolitics, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

372. Global Peace Index Briefing 2025

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The 2025 Global Peace Index reveals a fundamental reshaping of the global order not seen since the Cold War. It details a record decline in global peacefulness as rising conflict deaths, accelerating geopolitical tensions, and the erosion of social cohesion are driving ‘The Great Fragmentation’. The world is at an inflection point. While the number of conflicts is higher than at any time since World War II, they are also becoming unwinnable and increasingly expensive, yet global investment in conflict prevention have dramatically reduced. The last decade has seen major shifts in influence as middle level powers become more assertive within their respective regions. This has contributed to a record 78 countries being involved in conflicts beyond their borders. Combined with major power competition, the proliferation of asymmetric warfare technologies and mounting debt burdens in the most vulnerable states in the most fragile economies, the prospect for conflict has never been higher.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

373. Global Terrorism Index Briefing 2025

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The twelfth annual edition of the Global Terrorism Index highlights that terrorism remains a persistent global threat. The number of countries experiencing at least one terrorist incident increased from 58 to 66, the most countries affected since 2018. In 2024, more countries deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism, while only 34 showed improvement.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Sahel and Global Focus

374. Climate Resilience in Small Island States: Realizing the Major Macroeconomic Benefits from Adaptation Investments

Author:: Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:: Our recent research on the state and trends of climate adaptation finance needs in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) highlights that the total cost of adaptation for all SIDS is very small in the global context but very large for individual island nations.1 The research highlights how exceeding the 1.5°C warming level will have catastrophic consequences for SIDS. In this policy brief, we review the large and increasing climate risks faced by island nations, the urgent need to close the financing gap, and the potential of the blue economy. We then offer recommendations for increasing resilience across all sectors in SIDS.
Topic:: Climate Change, Climate Finance, International Development, Resilience, Blue Economy, and Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

375. How Western states keep the lead in the World Bank: Multipolarity, Geopolitics and the World Bank’s Conflicted Attempts at Shareholding Reform

Author:: Jakob Vestergaard and Robert H. Wade
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper examines the World Bank’s protracted and conflicted attempts at shareholding reform from 2008 to the present, situating them within the broader context of multipolarity and intensifying geopolitical rivalries. Despite repeated commitments since the Bretton Woods conference that voting power should reflect countries’ relative weight in the world economy, the Bank’s governance remains strikingly misaligned. China, India, and Indonesia—three of the four most populous countries—remain markedly underrepresented relative to their economic size, while many advanced economies retain disproportionate influence. Drawing on interviews with Executive Directors, Bank staff, and external observers, the paper traces the reform trajectory across successive rounds of review (2008, 2010, 2015, 2018, 2020, and the ongoing 2025 process). It highlights how technical proposals for “dynamic formulas” and equitable redistribution have consistently collided with entrenched geopolitical interests, notably U.S. resistance to a meaningful increase in China’s voting power, European reluctance to relinquish single-seat privileges, and Japan’s determination not to be overtaken by China. At the same time, institutional design—particularly the constitutionalized principle of “preemptive rights” in capital increases—has entrenched inertia by allowing any shareholder to veto dilution of its relative voting share. The result is a widening gap between rhetoric and reality: while official discourse stresses “equitable voting power,” actual reforms have delivered only fractional adjustments, often eroded in subsequent years. The paper sets out three scenarios for the 2025 shareholding review—a worstcase outcome of stalemate, a modest reform limited to symbolic gestures, and a best-case scenario involving a new institutional design based on misalignment limits, responsible shareholding, and open leadership selection. We argue that unless substantive reform is forthcoming, the Bank risks undermining its legitimacy as the world’s premier development finance institution in an increasingly multipolar world.
Topic:: World Bank, Reform, Geopolitics, Voting, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

376. Engendering Pluralism in Economics: Gendered Perspectives from an International Survey of Economists*

Author:: Mohsen Javdani
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This study contributes to growing calls for greater pluralism in economics by examining how gender shapes economists’ normative and epistemological orientations. Drawing on original survey data from 2,425 economists across 19 countries, we document systematic gender differences in views on a broad range of issues. Female economists are significantly more likely to support progressive equity-oriented positions, challenge mainstream assumptions, and endorse pluralistic approaches to inquiry. We also find stark gender differences in political ideology: women are far more likely than men to identify as left-leaning—particularly far-left—while men disproportionately align with centrist or right-leaning ideologies. These ideological divides account for some of the gender differences in views, underscoring the mediating role of political ideology. However, the influence of ideology itself varies by gender: moving rightward on the ideological spectrum reduces support for some progressive positions more sharply among men than women. This suggests that gendered experiences inform distinct interpretive frameworks that persist even within shared ideological categories. Taken together, our findings highlight that gender diversity in economics is not merely demographic but epistemic—and that realizing its transformative potential requires institutional environments that value and legitimize dissenting and underrepresented perspectives.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Ideology, Pluralism, and Gender Diversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

377. The Flawed Welfare Foundations of Pro-Free Trade Arguments

Author:: Mark Glick and Gabriel A. Lozada
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Free trade has long been defended as an unquestioned good in economics, yet its welfare foundations are deeply flawed. The efficiency gains highlighted by comparative advantage rest on the Potential Pareto Principle, which assumes away distributional concerns and treats aggregate surplus as synonymous with social welfare. In practice, free trade produces both winners and losers, often with significant and lasting harms to labor. Classical and modern theorists—from Ricardo to Samuelson—have acknowledged these problems, but standard textbooks and policy rhetoric bury them beneath confident claims of net benefits. Revisiting the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, critiques of consumer and social surplus, and later retractions by Hicks and Samuelson, we show that the intellectual case for free trade rests on indefensible ethical and empirical premises. A more rigorous and honest approach requires economists to restrict themselves to identifying effects on different groups, while leaving judgments about welfare and distribution to broader political debate.
Topic:: Economics, Free Trade, Trade, and Welfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

378. Grand strategy: Deterrence

Author:: Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Deterrence is the mobilization of coercive means to convince an adversary not to take an aggressive action. This can mean mobilizing an effective defense—convincing an adversary they will not be able to achieve their goal—or threatening to punish an adversary so even successful aggression doesn’t seem worthwhile. The ability to deter an adversary requires that they perceive both the capability and the will to carry out a deterrent threat—in other words, that they find the deterrent threat “credible.” It also requires an implicit assurance that the adversary will not suffer should they refrain from taking action. The massive and mutually destructive power of nuclear weapons makes leaders especially cautious about taking actions that could escalate to nuclear war, thereby suppressing the incentives for conventional war between nuclear-armed states. Extended nuclear deterrence, such as the “nuclear umbrella” the United States has extended to many of its allies since World War II, puts strain on the credibility underlying nuclear deterrence since it risks annihilation on behalf of allies. Extended deterrence becomes less credible and therefore more likely to fail when the fate of the third party is not vital to the state defending it. Now that its core allies have the latent capability to defend themselves—including with nuclear weapons—the United States should exit unnecessary commitments to extended deterrence.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Grand Strategy, Deterrence, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

379. DONG to Ørsted: Seven Insights to Transform National Oil Companies

Author:: Giovanni Tagliani, Andrea Furnaro, David Manley, and Camilo Romero
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: The experience of Denmark’s national oil company (NOC) DONG transforming into Ørsted, the world’s leading offshore wind developer, is a case worth exploring. While aspects of Denmark’s story are unique and not easily replicated, many of the underlying lessons can apply elsewhere. Governments in oil- and gas-exporting countries have long worried about two things: the eventual depletion of reserves and the volatility of global oil and gas prices. In response, many have acknowledged the need to diversify their economies beyond fossil fuels—to create new industries, generate jobs, stabilize government revenues and earn foreign exchange. Yet, despite decades of ambition, few have managed to succeed. And now, the urgency is growing in light of the global energy transition, threatening long-term demand for oil and gas. This shift has not only pushed governments to rethink their economic strategies but also forced national oil companies (NOCs)—along with their private-sector counterparts—to outline their own diversification plans. While these corporate efforts may not be sufficient on their own to shield a country from the impact of declining demand, they matter. Understanding how NOCs attempt to diversify can help governments determine whether these strategies support or undermine broader economic goals. There are reasons to be cautious. Diversification by NOCs could end up wasting public resources if, for example, NOCs invest in poorly planned ventures, politically motivated projects or sectors where the company lacks expertise. Worse, if such efforts are not carefully aligned with national development and decarbonization goals, they can divert capital and attention away from other priority areas.
Topic:: Exports, State-Owned Enterprises, Energy Transition, National Oil Companies, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Europe, Denmark, and Global Focus

380. Priorities for the United Nations High-Level Expert Advisory Group on Critical Energy Transition Minerals

Author:: National Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: In December 2024, the Natural Resource Governance Institute convened actors from international agencies, mineral-producing governments, civil society, industry, and academia at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center. The gathering identified steps that actors should prioritize to support equitable economic development in low- and middle-income mineral-producing countries. The group considered the recent United Nations Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals Report Resourcing the Energy Transition: Principles to Guide Critical Energy Transition Minerals Toward Equity and Justice, particularly the report's Actionable Recommendation 1 to “accelerate greater benefit sharing, value addition and economic diversification” through the establishment of “a High-Level Expert Advisory Group to facilitate a multi-stakeholder dialogue on ‘Accelerating Critical Energy Transition Minerals Value Addition Towards Equity.’” This paper provides recommendations developed by convening participants to help inform the work of the High-Level Expert Advisory Group (HLEAG) on benefit sharing, value addition, and economic diversification, and highlights connections between these policy areas and other actionable recommendations. The paper proposes four priority goals on which the HLEAG’s work should focus: A fair share of benefits from mining that are distributed equitably and managed well. Value-addition projects that benefit people. A diversified economy that benefits from—but does not depend on—minerals. Trade, finance, and investment that supports, rather than hinders, sustainable development and diversification of low- and middle-income mineral-producing countries and regions. The paper also includes a gap analysis of the broader sectoral context and stakeholders relevant to HLEAG actions on the four priority goal areas, as well as covering practical recommendations on the HLEAG's role, structure, and composition.
Topic:: United Nations, Economy, Investment, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

381. Addressing Fragility through Integrated Peacebuilding

Author:: Dylan O'Driscoll, Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, and Markus Mayer
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: The world today is facing unrelenting and interrelated environmental, ecological, demographic, socio-economic and political pressures that challenge resources at local, national, regional and global levels. Addressing these crises requires integrated approaches that respond to their compounding nature as well as new funding modalities to spur effective collaboration. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security paper explores both the opportunities and processes for reforming aid provision in fragile settings. The paper advocates for an integrated peacebuilding approach that tackles multiple complex issues together in a collaborative, long-term and interlinked manner. It outlines necessary changes at the political, donor and organizational levels to make this approach a reality.
Topic:: Development, Crisis Management, Peacebuilding, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

382. Militarising Artificial Intelligence: A Feminist Analysis of Algorithmic Warfare

Author:: Center for Feminist Foreign Policy (CFFP)
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:: According to proponents of military artificial intelligence (AI), its promise is one of precision, accuracy, and pace. Often celebrated for its unprecedented potential to “revolutionise the battlefield” (U.S. Department of Defense, 2020), military AI is credited with increasing situational awareness, enhancing decision-making capabilities, and enabling ‘machine-speed’ threat responses in war (UK Ministry of Defence, 2022). Importantly, certain applications of military AI have even been depicted as tools capable of reducing civilian casualties in conflict settings (Utrecht University, 2025). Advocates have argued that their ‘objectivity’ allows for more rational, less emotional decision-making, and stricter adherence to international humanitarian law. However, mounting evidence from contemporary conflicts involving AI-driven systems suggests that such theories are increasingly detached from reality. Rather than mitigating civilian harm, the deployment of artificial intelligence has been correlated with increased casualties and insecure conditions for civilian populations (particularly when used in combination with weapons that can be indiscriminate in impact such as unguided munitions). As the use of artificial intelligence in war continues to outpace its regulation, profound ethical, legal, and humanitarian concerns remain unaddressed. Feminist and human-centred solutions are urgently needed to forge pathways towards more inclusive, accountable, and responsible governance frameworks, and to counter the risks associated with new technologies employed in violent conflict.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Feminism, Artificial Intelligence, 2023 Gaza War, and Warfare
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Global Focus

383. Stories of Hope: Lessons from Human Rights Work in Restrictive Environments

Author:: Center for Feminist Foreign Policy (CFFP)
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:: In a time of rising authoritarianism, democratic backsliding, and escalating attacks on gender equality and human rights, feminist movements continue to show up for each other and for the future we refuse to give up on. The Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy’s (CFFP) Women’s Rights Task Force was created as a space for connection, learning, and strategizing across borders, bringing together activists and changemakers who are navigating shrinking civic spaces and deeply polarized public debates. What emerged from this space is more than a network—it is a collective practice of resilience and solidarity, as well as a testament to hope against all odds. This publication documents stories of feminist resistance and hope, drawn from the lived experiences of task force members across the globe. Whether through public campaigns, legal battles, or quiet organizing under pressure, each story reflects a vital piece of feminist resistance. Each story is different—but all are rooted in solidarity and the shared belief that change is possible, even when the odds are against us. These are not just stories of what happened. They are stories about the process—how movements adapt, how activists hold each other up, how values shape strategy, and how hope is not naive but fiercely intentional instead. In telling them, we aim to document not only feminist resistance but also feminist ingenuity. And above all, we hope that they offer something else that we all urgently need: a reminder that we are not alone, and we will not give up.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Authoritarianism, Feminism, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

384. Fragile States Index 2024 – Annual Report

Author:: Nate Haken, Paul Turner, Emily Sample, Fatoumata Maiga, and Perin Arkun
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and fragile states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Fragile States, and Political stability
Political Geography:: India, Brazil, Mozambique, Senegal, Tunisia, Somalia, Balochistan, South Sudan, Sahel, Global Focus, Niger, and Burkina Faso

385. Robotics and Artificial Intelligence: A New Economic Order

Author:: Lili Yan Ing and Gene Grossman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Various technological advancements have revolutionised how businesses operate and how people live and work. In recent years, significant advancements have occurred regarding industrial robotics and artificial intelligence (AI). The adoption of robotics and AI positively impacts productivity at both firm and national levels through increased precision and cost efficiency. While these technologies have the potential to substantially enhance productivity and to facilitate trade in goods and services, this paper also looks at the research on their impact on workers, wages, and economic welfare. Indeed, the extensive and uneven effects of robotics and AI on different skill sets have become a focus of economic research, which has explored how these technologies may yield outcomes that differ markedly from previous technological advancements.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics
Political Geography:: Asia and Global Focus

386. Tough Times, Tough Choices: Charting PEPFAR’s Next Chapter While Safeguarding Its Legacy

Author:: Rachel Bonnifield and Janeen Madan Keller
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The Trump administration and key congressional lawmakers are shaping a new US government approach to the future of PEPFAR, alongside other global health programs like malaria and tuberculosis. The emerging vision emphasizes country ownership and greater government-to-government support via bilateral Global Health Compacts, paired with a financial drawdown of US assistance. The government’s proposed approach offers a broadly reasonable blueprint for PEPFAR’s evolution. Yet, the pace and scale of proposed changes are unprecedented in global health history, posing significant risks to hard-won PEPFAR results. Thoughtful and calibrated risk mitigation measures are needed to prevent financing gaps, service disruptions, and accountability breakdowns. We propose a differentiated three-track framework to operationalize a responsible PEPFAR transition while meeting the administration’s key strategic goals: Track 1 – Graduation: For wealthier and stable partner countries able to feasibly absorb PEPFAR funding on a relatively rapid timeline, following a phased shift of service delivery to government systems Track 2 – Toward self-reliance: For poorer, higher-burden countries, allowing extended timelines to gradually increase domestic financing while sustaining PEPFAR funding for key treatment and prevention outcomes Track 3 – Compassionate: For the poorest and most fragile countries where sustained PEPFAR investment is required, with potential scope for partial service delivery via national systems in some settings. This analysis and proposed timeline only apply to PEPFAR, and should not be extended to other global health programmatic areas and investments. We urge the administration and congressional leaders to pair adequate financial, technical, and human resources with a prudent operational approach to implement this next chapter of PEPFAR—protecting public health outcomes and preserving PEPFAR’s extraordinary legacy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, HIV/AIDS, Development, Global Health, and US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief(PEPFAR)
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

387. Financing at a Crossroads: How the Global Fund Can Adapt to a Shrinking Aid Landscape

Author:: Janeen Madan Keller, Clemence Landers, and Rowan Rockafellow
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Amid widespread donor retrenchment, the Global Fund faces an era of austerity that threatens the sustainability of its donor-dependent, grant-based financing model. This paper models an alternative financial approach inspired by multilateral development funds such as the World Bank’s International Development Association. We propose combining grants for the poorest, highest-burden countries with loans on varying levels of concessionality for middle-income countries. Using Global Fund annual disbursement data, we construct a hypothetical cash flow model anchored in World Bank lending terms. We find that a combined grant and loan model could generate reflows of up to $1 billion annually by 2033—roughly 20 percent of the Global Fund’s current annual grant disbursements—while maintaining full grant financing for the poorest countries. A gradual shift toward a mixed grant and loan approach could enhance financial resilience, promote greater domestic fiscal ownership, and bring more external health spending on-budget. However, introducing loans also raises policy trade-offs and risks—including, but not limited to, possible shifts in country demand and gaps in service coverage. Importantly, the proposed model does not replace the Global Fund’s commitment to grants but adapts it to the realities of shrinking aid budgets by targeting them to the poorest countries and evolving the Global Fund’s financing relationship with middle-income countries. Ultimately, the key policy question is around how to balance financing volumes and terms. This paper aims to inform that debate and contribute to ongoing discussions on the future of global health financing.
Topic:: Reform, Global Health, Development Finance, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

388. The IMF and Climate Change: Focus on What Matters for Greater Impact

Author:: Mary Svenstrup
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: he IMF has an important role to play in climate-related macro-financial issues, especially at a time of great uncertainty for global climate action. As the only multilateral institution responsible for promoting global macroeconomic and financial stability, the IMF needs a better approach to help countries, particularly emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs), get their economic frameworks right—as a necessary foundation to mobilize public and private investments including for climate action. This is the key area where the IMF can be bold to help advance climate action in the current environment. In parallel, the IMF should streamline the remainder of its climate work to what is macro-critical and aligned with its mandate. As a part of the global constellation of actors working to solve climate change, we need the IMF to do its job well—not all jobs. This paper recommends that the IMF (1) dramatically strengthen lending programs by enabling countries to more durably implement ambitious reforms, escape debt overhang that inhibits growth, and ultimately invest to make their economies cleaner and more resilient; (2) rethink the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), which has thus far had incremental impact, to support a narrower set of ambitious macro-critical reforms aimed at catalyzing investment and supporting stronger programs; (3) buy political space and leverage IMF expertise by strictly limiting coverage of climate issues in surveillance to where it is macro-critical and aligned with the IMF’s mandate; and (4) further enhance partnership with the World Bank, being clear where more collaboration is needed and where the institutions can divide and conquer.
Topic:: Climate Change, Climate Finance, IMF, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

389. More From Less: Optimising Vaccines in a Constrained World

Author:: Wojciech Robert Więcek
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This paper argues that more focus on how vaccines are dosed can deliver large benefits. The current practice of vaccine development and licensure delivers vaccines that are safe and effective, but can lead to doses that are higher than is socially optimal. After a vaccine has been approved, there are often few commercial incentives to make adjustments. As a result, while there are many successful examples of adjusting dosing, this process can take decades. This is especially important in pandemics and under supply and fiscal constraints, such as those currently facing Gavi. A simple analysis suggests that there are both large health and fiscal benefits that public health decision makers and vaccine buyers can get from optimisation. This is shown in three illustrative but concrete cases: accelerating the switch to single-dose HPV vaccination, adjusting PCV dosing, and dose-sparing for a COVID-19 vaccine. To get to optimal vaccines faster, all stakeholders in vaccine development need to contribute. Researchers and pharmaceutical companies should improve the science of vaccine dosing, especially through greater focus on model-informed development. Regulators should push for optimisation data as part of approvals and consider clinical trial designs that enable optimisation. Global health funders and vaccine buyers should identify vaccines where more evidence is needed and be proactive about generating it, possibly by creating new funding models and pull incentives for optimisation.
Topic:: Development, Public Health, Vaccine, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

390. World Bank Climate Mitigation: What Gets Measured and What Gets Missed

Author:: Euan Ritchie
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This paper reviews the performance metrics by which the World Bank judges the success of its climate mitigation projects. These indicators provide valuable insights into what such projects are aiming to achieve, as well as shedding light on what the World Bank is actually achieving through each of its projects. Overall, despite common conceptions, performance metrics suggest that World Bank mitigation projects are rarely motivated by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This metric is rarely tracked, and projects tend to focus instead on energy access and other infrastructure. However, where the World Bank does report its GHG emissions impact, performance metrics suggest that the World Bank mitigation projects are reasonably cost-effective in reducing emissions, with an average cost per ton of CO2 equivalent averted of between $26 and $43. But projects financed from trust funds specifically targeting climate objectives avert GHG emissions at much lower costs.
Topic:: Climate Change, World Bank, Carbon Emissions, and Mitigation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

391. Do Climate Targets Affect Lending at the World Bank?

Author:: Charles Kenny
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The World Bank has “ambitious” climate targets that have been accompanied by a growing proportion of its lending being labeled as climate finance. At the same time, the way that finance is defined makes it difficult to know how different the World Bank’s portfolio would look absent a climate finance target. Similarly, the World Bank has introduced a shadow price of carbon (SPC) for use in project analysis, but it does not advertise cases (if any) where the use of the SPC has changed investment choices or project design. This paper takes a brief look at the World Bank’s lending portfolio as well as the economic analysis sections of recent World Bank project appraisal documents to see if they can provide any evidence on the question, "do climate targets and carbon prices change the portfolio?" The answer to “can they provide evidence’ is "suggestive at best.” But while there is some evidence of some impact, there are also reasons to doubt it is large.
Topic:: Climate Change, World Bank, Climate Finance, and Carbon Pricing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

392. Commitment to Development Index 2025

Author:: Ian Mitchell and Edward Wickstead
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: ith levels of development finance falling, it is more important than ever to look beyond aid. The Commitment to Development Index (CDI) does just that—ranking the world’s most powerful countries on policies that affect global development. In an increasingly interconnected and geopolitical world, decisions made by governments of major economies have impacts far beyond their borders, and often disproportionately affect the world’s poorest and most vulnerable. Despite a rise in nationalism in many countries, greater global prosperity is in the common interest, creating new economic and trade opportunities, increasing innovation, and reducing risks posed by global challenges in health, security, and climate.
Topic:: Development, Health, Foreign Aid, Investment, Trade, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

393. Financing of Healthcare Supply Chains in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Novel Conceptual Framework

Author:: Pete Baker, Katherine Klemperer, Yacine Fatime Ndao, Marakai Fikre Merid, Cheryl Cashin, Anooj Pattnaik, and Ibnou Khadim Diaw
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: evelopment assistance for health is declining rapidly, and public healthcare supply chains are facing urgent shortfalls in resources. Governments are moving to increase domestic financing of their healthcare supply chains. Yet the financing of supply chains is a neglected policy area, and one where countries face significant challenges. Too often, financing is slow, unpredictable, fragmented, inflexible, dependent on donors, and inefficient. As a result, populations suffer from limited and unreliable access to essential medicines and diagnostics. The neglect is partly due to the reality that health financing and supply chain policymakers work in institutional and disciplinary silos, are backed by different global health agencies and donors, and lack a common understanding or language to develop robust national policies. Following a review of prior theoretical work and case studies, and engagement with policymakers and experts, this CGD Policy Paper proposes a novel conceptual framework that integrates the functions and policy domains of the two fields. It defines financing of supply chains as “the policies and practices necessary to provide financial resources to the supply chain, and ensure their optimal use, in order to achieve health system goals.” The framework articulates integrated sectoral governance as a prerequisite for success and then details 10 distinct functions across four phases of the supply chain: planning, procurement, delivery, and monitoring. First, countries must plan the financing of supply chains, including raising funds, setting priorities, budgeting, and regulating markets. Second, countries must finance procurement and effectively execute procurement budgets, including both “direct” procurement by higher-level budget holders and “indirect” procurement carried out by healthcare facilities. Third, countries must finance an effective delivery system that ensures efficient warehousing and the timely last-mile distribution of commodities to healthcare facilities. Finally, robust monitoring is needed to enable data-informed decision making, including setting the priorities for future cycles. This framework is intended to provide a new way of thinking about supply chains. In time, we hope this will lead to a new community of practice, countries strengthening their policies and sharing their experience, and better global guidance.
Topic:: Development Aid, Supply Chains, Global Health, and Middle-Income Countries
Political Geography:: Global Focus

394. A “Diagonal” Approach to Integrating Nutrition into Health Systems: Opportunities, Challenges, and the Way Forward

Author:: Asti Shafira and Javier Guzman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Despite decades of global efforts, nutrition remains underprioritized, siloed, and poorly integrated within health systems and universal health coverage (UHC) efforts. This persistent challenge occurs against a backdrop of health and development financing at an inflection, where there is growing recognition to rethink how nutrition-specific interventions are delivered and financed. The Global Compact for Nutrition Integration launched at the 2025 Nutrition for Growth Summit signaled strong political commitment to addressing these systemic disparities, while the operationalization requires concrete delivery pathways with greater attention to evidence-based implementation strategies. This paper explores delivery approaches for nutrition-specific interventions, drawing from country and donor experiences across the health sector. Vertical approaches, while more direct in achieving specific outcomes, are often supported by off-budget funding and frequently result in fragmented delivery through parallel systems. Conversely, horizontal approaches are typically on-budget and systems-oriented but may lack specificity and accountability for nutrition outcomes. “Diagonal” approaches—as one strategy to achieve integration—offer a potential bridge by embedding high-impact nutrition interventions into health system strengthening efforts with clear outcome measures and accountability mechanisms. Diagonal approaches leverage strategic overlaps across four key pathways: population targets, health system resources, service delivery platforms, and financing vehicles to maximize synergies between nutrition and broader health system goals. While it offers conceptual strength and demonstrated applications across sectors, evidence in nutrition remains relatively underexplored. Realizing the opportunities to improve resource efficiency and enhance sustainable impact through government ownership will require strong governance, aligned policy, robust financing arrangements, context-specific adaptation, and appropriate accountability systems.
Topic:: Public Health, Nutrition, Global Health, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

395. Weak Private Investment Trends in EMDEs: What Can Governments Do About It?

Author:: Nancy Lee, Samuel Matthews, and James Reid
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This paper begins by looking at private investment and bank credit to the private sector as a share of GDP in EMDEs in this century. It finds worrisome levels and trends, especially compared to private investment ratios for economies that achieved sustained high growth in the last century. As exogenous shocks proliferate and growth slows, EMDEs need better evidence on structural policies that help boost private investment ratios. The World Bank’s new B-Ready database scores governments’ investment-related policies and services across nearly 1,200 indicators per economy (for an initial sample of 50 economies), organized into 10 topics and 3 pillars. The paper tests the hypothesis that there are significant correlations between these scores and private investment outcomes. The B-Ready detail helps governments identify areas of strength and weakness. But governments need help in setting priorities across nearly 1,200 indicators. Setting priorities requires evidence not only about the scores themselves but also about which indicators are most correlated with actual private finance flows. Taking due account of the limitations of analysis based on correlations, our findings suggest that, as a point of departure, governments would do well to pay attention to policies and systems that confer economy-wide benefits attractive to private finance providers. While there are differences between foreign investors, domestic investors, and bank lenders, the evidence points overall to the importance of trade openness; strong and efficient e-payment systems; better access to data for assessing creditworthiness; policies and systems for protecting competition; support for local innovation (including intellectual property protection for domestic innovators); opening up government procurement; and well-functioning dispute settlement mechanisms that don’t require court litigation. The cost of making and receiving e-payments and trade openness stand out as significant factors for all three sources of finance.
Topic:: Investment, Development Finance, Sustainable Development, and Private Investment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

396. Are International Financial Institutions Doing Enough to Prepare for a Stablecoin Tsunami?

Author:: Karen Mathiasen and Nico Martinez
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Stablecoins, a form of cryptocurrency pegged to and backed by another asset (usually US dollars), are reshaping the global financial landscape. Unlike fiat currency, they can be issued by private companies, and barriers to entry are relatively low. Stablecoins are appealing because they can process cross-border transactions much faster and more cheaply than conventional payments systems such as SWIFT and Western Union and offer a secure store of value. While most stablecoin activity now involves buying and selling other cryptocurrencies, this is starting to change, with increased stablecoin use for remittances and international settlements. The passage of the US GENIUS Act has accelerated their legitimacy and adoption, helping drive stablecoin transaction volumes to trillions of dollars. Yet their proliferation also poses substantial risks, including banking sector instability, regulatory arbitrage, weaker transmission of monetary policy, and the spread of illicit finance, all of which could destabilize the global financial system. In this paper, we explore these trends and discuss what the international financial institutions should be doing to support countries as they navigate the stablecoin phenomenon. We argue that the International Monetary Fund and World Bank should be much more proactive, and we propose a new agenda for action, starting with the adoption of clear criteria for country engagement on stablecoins and strengthened surveillance activities.
Topic:: Science and Technology, World Bank, Cryptocurrencies, IMF, Stablecoins, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

397. Platforms that Perform: Navigating Country Platform Implementation

Author:: Alexia Latortue and Jared Goodman
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: ountry platforms—mechanisms that align national priorities, policy reforms, investment pipelines, and financing from diverse partners—are gaining momentum amid broader turbulence in development and climate finance. With official aid in retreat, many emerging markets and developing economies are turning to platforms to mobilize resources, strengthen ownership, and coordinate across fragmented systems. Yet this strong interest risks disappointment if platforms are deployed in contexts where they cannot deliver, or if expectations exceed what they can achieve in implementation, potentially contributing to broader disillusionment with development assistance. This paper focuses on the complex implementation choices that impact the effectiveness of country platforms. Drawing on more than 50 interviews with government officials, development partners, private sector actors, and civil society, we examine the binding constraints that platforms can and cannot address, as well as the risks associated with misaligned ambition, weak coordination, and fragile political settlements. We highlight four critical issues that impact implementation and offer recommendations for how to navigate them: delivering genuine country ownership and leadership; sequencing launches to sustain momentum; calibrating scope to deliver both near-term benefits and long-term transformation; and structuring capital in ways that unlock complementary public and private finance. We hope to inspire reflection on when platforms are the best approach and to help shape emerging platforms so that they are best positioned to deliver.
Topic:: Development Finance, Implementation, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

398. A Lean World Health Organization for the Global Good

Author:: Pete Baker, Rachel Bonnifield, and Janeen Madan Keller
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: his brief is the first in CGD's Tough Times, Tough Choices series, which offers guidance to major global health and development institutions and their funders on how to allocate resources strategically and effectively in an era of aid austerity. Key recommendations The World Health Organization should: Articulate a clear vision for a lean WHO for the global good, with a laser-focus on its global comparative advantage: Global leadership and convening Global health security Global public goods Substantially rebalance staffing and resources away from country offices and technical assistance and towards the three priorities at HQ Reorient scaled-down country offices to support WHO’s global focus: Serve as liaison between global public good production and country needs Retain modest direct TA and service provision role in outbreak preparedness and response Directly report to headquarters Prioritise and focus its global public goods production through a member state committee, the consolidation of global technical centres, time-bound WHA resolutions, and coordination with other partners Develop a transitional budget that protects the poorest countries and guides the organisation rapidly towards the vision
Topic:: Development, World Health Organization, WHO, Global Health, and Resource Allocation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

399. How Gavi 6.0 Can Take a Bigger Leap

Author:: Janeen Madan Keller, Rachel Bonnifield, Tom Drake, Pete Baker, and Orin Levine
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This brief is the second in CGD’s Tough Times, Tough Choices series, which offers guidance to major global health and development institutions and their funders on how to allocate resources strategically and effectively in an era of aid austerity. Key recommendations Gavi 6.0 should prioritize a dual mandate: Stabilize core vaccine budgets in the poorest countries Transform the financing model over time through a radically simplified “New Compact Envelope Financing” approach, with country-led prioritization, domestic financing of top priority vaccines, and a single Gavi cash envelope to cover additional vaccines and technical assistance Gavi can generate cost savings of ~$2.5 billion without compromising its core mandate by: Cutting direct funding to non-Gavi-eligible middle-income countries, and offering alternative forms of high-leverage support Scaling back Secretariat expenses Securing vaccine price reductions Reducing funding for the African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator Decreasing overall country allocations with an incremental rollout by eligibility phase
Topic:: Development, Austerity, Global Health, and Resource Allocation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

400. SDG 1 and Corruption: No Poverty

Author:: Benedict Clements, Sanjeev Gupta, and João Tova Jalles
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1 requires not only sustained economic growth and robust social protection systems but also a concerted effort to combat corruption, which remains a critical barrier to poverty reduction. This paper examines the multifaceted ways in which corruption undermines poverty alleviation efforts—by distorting public resource allocation, weakening institutions, eroding public trust, and reducing government capacity to mobilize domestic resources, particularly through taxation. The paper then explores strategies for addressing corruption, including enhancing fiscal transparency, strengthening anti-corruption legislation, improving public financial management, and leveraging digital technologies. Ultimately, it argues that tackling corruption is essential for creating the fiscal and institutional foundations necessary for achieving SDG 1 and promoting inclusive and sustainable development.
Topic:: Corruption, Poverty, Governance, Sustainable Development Goals, Transparency, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS