Political Geography: Global Focus

201. The Politics of Misinformation: Social Media, Polarization, and the Geopolitical Landscape in 2025

Author:: Ceren Çetinkaya
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: According to the Global Web Index, as of October 2024, 64% of the global population actively uses social media; they spend an average of 2 hours and 19 minutes daily on such platforms. (Chaffey, 2024). This digital transformation has reshaped various domains in our lives, most notably the political sphere. Social media platforms, particularly X (formerly known as Twitter), TikTok, and Facebook have become central hubs for political discourse. Their democratizing potential enables grassroots movements and empowers individuals to communicate with large audiences, bypassing traditional gatekeepers. However, this empowerment has come with significant trade-offs, including the proliferation of disinformation and misinformation, and the reinforcement of ideological echo chambers which contribute to the polarization of society. The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report identifies misinformation as the most critical challenge to political cohesion and societal trust, particularly due to its ability to fracture democratic institutions, in the next two years. As we enter 2025, X has shown its potential to become a platform for political discourse, especially for populist far-right movements, and has been accused of propagating misinformation. Recently, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that Meta would remove third-party fact-checkers in the US and replace them with a crowd-sourced moderating service like the “community notes” feature on the rival social media platform X, because “the fact-checkers are politically biased”. Given the previous effects of social media in conflicts such as Rohingya humanitarian crisis in 2018, the effect of changes in social media regulations and the big tech-politics axis remains uncertain in a year where the ongoing conflicts seem unlikely to end soon. This report examines the geopolitical implications of misinformation in 2025 and calls for greater global attention to the role of social media in conflict areas.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Social Media, Misinformation, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

202. Stimulating Clean Hydrogen Demand: The Current Landscape

Author:: Rachel Mural, Matt Floyd, Sebastian Berns, and Ai Takahashi
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Hydrogen is expected to play an important role in the global energy transition as a chemical feedstock and fuel; when produced with renewable energy, hydrogen offers a means of decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial processes and the heavy transportation sector.1 To support market growth, current hydrogen programs aim to expand clean2 (also called “green”) hydrogen production by providing substantial subsidies in the form of supply-side funding and tax incentives. In 2023, global public investments in clean hydrogen reached $308 billion, with the vast bulk of funding allocated to production-side support.3 While worldwide clean hydrogen production targets4 reached 27-35 megatons (Mt) in 2023, demand targets have stalled at just 14 Mt.5 This trend reflects regional asymmetries in production and demand uptake. Under current projections, demand for renewable hydrogen in Europe is expected to hit 8.5 Mt by 2030, far behind the region’s planned 20 Mt of supply.6 Similarly, although the passage of the United States’ (U.S.) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022 spurred an explosion of announced clean hydrogen projects, project offtake has lagged behind policy ambition. Supply-side incentives alone are insufficient to build robust markets for clean hydrogen; therefore, stakeholders must investigate additional demand-side innovation policies to facilitate market growth and development. In the remainder of this brief, we summarize the hydrogen policy landscape in the United States and European Union (EU), concluding with an examination of the causes of demand-side stagnation in the clean hydrogen market.
Topic:: Environment, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Regulation, Public Policy, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: Global Focus, United States of America, and European Union

203. Harvard Project Releases Discussion Brief on Climate-change and Trade Policy

Author:: Michael A Mehling
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Michael Mehling explores relationships among industrial policy, trade, and efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Among his conclusions are that climate action is now tied to the rise of industrial policy; border carbon measures are seeing increased interest but are also controversial as tools of climate action; and, while trade and climate cooperation have evolved separately, they are increasingly intersecting.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Trade Policy, and Greenhouse Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

204. The many contending futures of UN peacekeeping

Author:: Corine van Emmerik and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This DIIS Working Paper examines how UN peacekeeping operations are being reimagined in an era of global uncertainty. Through analysis of key UN documents and interviews with officials and diplomats, the research reveals multiple competing visions for peacekeeping's future — from a return to core principles to modular approaches and even a dramatic downscaling of peacekeeping as we have known it since the turn of the millennium. As peacekeeping operations face diminished legitimacy, host state resistance, and a deadlocked Security Council, the study argues that peacekeeping's chronic challenges are inherently unsolvable and must be continuously navigated. The paper comes at a critical moment following the closure of the Mali mission, considerable challenges in the DRC, and ahead of the 2025 Peacekeeping Ministerial, with implications for the future of global conflict management in an increasingly multipolar world.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

205. 8 old and new challenges for UN peacekeeping

Author:: Peter Albrecht and Corine van Emmerik
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Recent reviews and calls from the ‘Pact for the Future’ to reshape the UN peacekeeping framework, underscore an urgent need for innovation and dialogue to ensure peacekeeping’s continued relevance. While peacekeeping’s core principles of impartiality, consent, and limited use of force remain essential for fostering trust and legitimacy, rethinking is also needed to address unresolved challenges like asymmetric warfare, regionalized conflicts, and external geopolitical influences. Denmark’s seat on the United Nations Security Council for 2025–2026 presents a crucial opportunity to shape the future of peacekeeping, particularly as adapting conflict responses aligns closely with Denmark’s key thematic priorities for its tenure. We recommend eight ways to address both enduring and emerging challenges.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Innovation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Global Focus

206. Beware of historical analogies

Author:: Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: When political leaders legitimise security policy decisions with a historical analogy (typically to World War II), the analyst and public opinion should be on the alert. This DIIS Working Paper refers to contributions from the academic literature on decision-makers' historical analogies. Crisis decisions by Anthony Eden, Margaret Thatcher, Joseph Stalin and John F. Kennedy illustrate the discussion, and implications for the discourse on the current Ukraine-conflict are drawn.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

207. Who counts as ‘local’ in conservation and biodiversity strategies?

Author:: Adam Moe Fejerskov and Alma Tjalve
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: What does it mean to work 'locally' in conservation, and how can practitioners navigate the complex power dynamics this entails? A new DIIS Working Paper explores the evolving landscape of inclusive conservation approaches, examining how concepts like community-based conservation, Indigenous-led stewardship, and critical localism interpret and operationalise 'the local'. As development partners intensify their conservation engagement globally, understanding these diverse frameworks and their implications for practice has become essential. The paper maps out how different conservation approaches conceptualise locality and community participation, from collaborative partnerships to full community control over resource management. Through analysing various models — including Community-Based Natural Resource Management, Integrated Conservation and Development Projects, and Indigenous-led conservation — the authors explore how each interprets empowerment, knowledge integration, and decision-making authority differently. The study concludes with practical principles for inclusive conservation programming, emphasising that working effectively with 'the local' requires careful attention to power dynamics, rights recognition, and the integration of multiple knowledge systems across scales.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Conservation, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

208. Gendered tax burdens in contexts of high informality

Author:: Abel Gwaindepi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This study examines the intersection of taxation, gender, and informality. While both men and women work informally in low-income countries, women are concentrated in more precarious, low-paying segments than men — making them prone to heavier tax burdens, compounded by unpaid care work and limited social protection.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Tax Systems, Informal Economy, Gender, and Development Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

209. Of Two Minds: Sanctions as a Form of Accountability and the Dilemmas for Transitional Justice

Author:: Elena Naughton
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: This report provides an analysis of international economic sanctions from a transitional justice perspective. Sanctions are a policy tool primarily associated with issues of foreign policy, peace, and security, often deployed as a form of coercive diplomacy to induce a change in behavior or policy. In recent years, however, especially as sanctions have been increasingly targeted at those responsible for human rights violations, the potential for greater engagement with transitional justice has expanded. The report considers the role that sanctions may play in advancing or hindering justice goals such as accountability, redress, and prevention in response to massive and serious human rights violations. It suggests that sanctions may provide an alternative or complementary means of justice in contexts of impunity, including in societies where significant political transitions have not yet begun. Sanctions may also offer opportunities for victim participation, while also presenting risks for victims and human rights activists. The report gathers lessons learned to provide guidance and broach a discussion about whether and how international economic sanctions function in support of (1) transitional justice goals, by punishing perpetrators, recognizing victims and repairing the harms they have suffered, advancing the truth, and preventing a recurrence of violations; and (2) transitional justice processes, by documenting human rights violations and identifying those responsible, supporting trials and truth commissions, and funding reparations. The report also examines the challenges that sanctions pose to justice, related to both legitimacy and impact. These include selectivity in the choice of targets, negative humanitarian impact, sanction evasion and the empowerment of authoritarian and corrupt actors, limited tangible impact on targets, undermining justice processes and actors, lack of outreach, legal and practical challenges, and lack of coordination and coherence. It concludes by identifying areas where increased engagement between justice practitioners and sanctions authorities could take advantage of the synergies in their work.
Topic:: Sanctions, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Memory, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

210. The Capability Approach: Multidimensional Poverty, Global Justice, and Global South Perspectives

Author:: Anna Carolina Kähler de Moraes Barros
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The present work aims to analyse the capability approach, in the terms established by Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum, and its consequences in studying poverty. The theoretical assumptions articulated by these authors not only show the complexity of that multidimensional phenomenon but guide the contours of what should be considered essential for a dignified life. Thus, the capability approach presents itself as the basis of a global understanding of justice. However, such a generalising claim invariably ignores nuances and particularities not properly valued a priori. In this sense, it is necessary to reveal neglected structural aspects that are decisive for the perpetuation of poverty and inequalities in those places where they are more forceful. To this end, peripheral perspectives will be highlighted as an important tool in identifying the limits of the capability approach as the basis of a conception of global justice.
Topic:: Poverty, Capability, Human Rights, Justice, and Global South
Political Geography:: Global Focus

211. The Speed of Aid: Strategic Urgency in International Emergency Relief

Author:: Andreas Fuchs and Samuel Siewers
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Timely assistance is a precondition for effective emergency relief in the aftermath of natural disasters. This paper shows that donor countries take faster aid decisions if they have stronger strategic interests at stake. We analyze a trilateral panel (donor, donor, recipient) of daily humanitarian aid decisions of 43 donor countries following 516 fast-onset natural disasters between 2000 and 2022. Identification relies on daily variation in donor responses and a series of multidimensional fixed effects. Our analysis reveals a bandwagon effect as donors follow their peers' commitments. This is largely explained by trade competition: the more donors compete over export and import markets, the faster they react to each other. The results are driven by government-to-government aid and underscore the importance of recipient-specific lead donors, who are natural first movers. These findings suggest that commercial competition can distort emergency relief and highlight that strategic interests shape even ostensibly altruistic behavior in international humanitarian aid.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, United Nations, Natural Disasters, Trade, Donors, Competition, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

212. Hegemonic Globalization

Author:: Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization”, built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any two countries increases with the degree of alignment in these policies. Hegemons promote policy alignment and thereby facilitate deeper trade integration. A unipolar world, dominated by a single hegemon, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is particularly costly for the declining hegemon and its closest allies. To test the theory, we use international treaties as a proxy for alignment and compile a novel “Global Treaties Database”, covering 77,000 agreements signed between 1800 and 2020. Consistent with the theory, we find that hegemons account for a disproportionate share of global treaty activity and that treaty-signing is a leading indicator of increasing bilateral trade.
Topic:: Globalization, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Hegemony, Trade, Multipolarity, and Coercion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

213. Hegemony and International Alignment

Author:: Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, Christoph Trebesch, and Jiaxian Zhou Wu
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This article explores the interplay between economic hegemony and political alignment. Using theoretical and empirical insights from Broner et al. (2024), we posit that hegemonic states, such as the U.S., foster political alignment, which enhances globalization. We use UN voting data to proxy for international alignment and show that hegemons induce alignment. This data has shortcomings, however. UN voting only covers the post-WWII period, refers to a narrow set of issues, and displays little time variation. As for military alliances, they were not widely used before the mid-20th century. We propose an alternative measure of alignment based on international treaties.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, Hegemony, Multipolarity, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

214. Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights: Towards an Advanced International Binding Regulation?

Author:: Takis Vidalis
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: With the rapid development of AI applications in the most important areas of economic, political and social life, the regime for the protection of fundamental rights has been significantly affected. This reality gives rise to initiatives for new legislation at international, supranational and national level. At the level of international law in particular, this legislation currently focuses on the formulation of general principles and guidelines. What is lacking is more specific regulation in situations where the introduction of AI causes uncertainty as to the protection of specific rights, particularly where conflicts arise between them. This article attempts to formulate proposals for such a more specific regulation, based on widely acknowledged principles of international law. Given that technological development and its impact on today’s societies know no national limitations, the adoption of this ‘next step’ in international law may well determine the smooth adaptation of AI to the values of democratic societies.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

215. Ocean Rights – Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Jasper Mührel
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: The pressing environmental crises of the Anthropocene are inherently connected to ocean health. Yet, the oceans are currently in a critical state. The article explores the idea of giving rights to oceans as one way to enhance their legal protection. It draws on scholarship and practice regarding the existing legal rights of nature, and discusses the challenges and prospects of ocean rights. In doing so, the article raises and addresses three fundamental questions for the recognition of such rights: first, why oceans should hold their own rights in the first place; second, who, i.e. what exact entity or entities, shall hold ocean rights; and finally, how such rights could be implemented and represented and thus be given practical effect.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Law, Oceans and Seas, Anthropocene, and Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

216. Status Quo or Bold Adaptation? Reclaiming the Women, Peace and Security Agenda

Author:: Sophie Close and Siad Darwish
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: This report by the European Institute of Peace calls for a critical rethinking of the core principles behind the Women, Peace, and Security agenda to ensure its continued relevance and effectiveness in today’s rapidly shifting global context. The study lays out the five persistent barriers preventing women’s meaningful participation in conflict prevention and peace processes, it highlights core principles that could transform the WPS agenda and assesses 12 effective and promising practices that can be used to navigate these barriers. Based on these, the report suggests concrete actions for policymakers and practitioners to enhance women’s meaningful participation in peacebuilding and conflict resolution. This research is part of the Breaking Barriers, Making Peace project led by the European Institute of Peace with support from the German Federal Foreign Office. This 2-year project provides recommendations to policymakers and practitioners on how to address the persistent barriers to women’s meaningful participation in peace and political settlement processes.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Women, Peacemaking, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Sudan, Ethiopia, Myanmar, and Global Focus

217. Remind Me Again Why We Put Together a Neighborhood Party? Recommitting to the Objectives of Special Drawing Rights Issuance

Author:: Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Unfair Distribution at the Neighborhood Holiday Party Imagine it’s the holiday season, and your neighborhood decides it would be nice to hold an afternoon party where all the families can come together to celebrate. There’s good music, delicious food, fun and games, and time to bond as a community. A small team is organized as the neighborhood party committee. To show your commitment to the party, every household is asked to contribute a commitment fee. Conscious that not everybody has the same financial circumstances, households contribute according to their household size and income, along with their house’s equity level. As the party draws near, the committee announces that they will use the pooled funds to purchase the drinks. However, they announce a pot-luck style contribution for the food. A list of food requirements is distributed, and households sign up to bring their dishes, with households allowed to bring as much or as little as they are able to bring, as long as their contribution can feed at least one person. The day of the party, everyone is excited! It’s a full house as guests arrive with their contributions, and music is blasting through the venue. The MC takes the microphone and gets the party started. Everyone is excited, some people are dancing, drinks are being served, and everyone is mingling happily. The food station also opens, and the announcer reminds guests to scan the QR code on the wristband they were given upon arrival to use as the ticket to get their portioned food. Nothing more is said. As the line quickly forms, people get to the station, scan their wristbands, and are served their food. Some households walk up to the station: a family of four gets fifty plates of food, a family of eight gets two plates of food, a family of six gets ten plates of food, a family of two gets one plate of food. Everyone soon becomes perplexed. What is happening? “This is a potluck, don’t we just serve ourselves based on what is available, and what we like and want?” At the beginning, everyone is trying to keep the peace. But soon, a small boy breaks the ice as he wants ice cream and his family has only been allocated one burger and nothing else. He begins to cry and is evidently very upset. The mother is flustered by all the commotion and tries to plead with the servers to see if her son can get an ice cream. However, the server remains adamant and says no. The allocation is system-generated and no exceptions can be made at this stage. A few other people join the commotion and begin to demand answers as to why food is being allocated in the way it is. The committee chairperson comes to the microphone and seeks to clarify the food is allocated according to how much each household paid as commitment fee. So, households who paid more get a bigger allocation of food, and those who paid less get less. “This is ridiculous,” most think. “We came together to have a party, to enjoy ourselves as a community. We all agreed to bring food to share, why would the sharing now be based on our contributions?” This notion destroyed the very objective of why the party had been put together, which was to build a sense of community and oneness.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

218. Unlocking Reform Capacity

Author:: Thibault Camelli
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: What does the UN80 reform initiative reveal about the limits of United Nations (UN) reform, and how can member states, UN staff, and policymakers avoid ritualized repetition while unlocking actionable reform pathways? The 2025 UN80 initiative is the most wide-ranging internal reform plan launched by the UN in over a decade. However, while its initial set of proposals demonstrates real administrative intent (merging departments, relocating offices, and reducing senior staffing), they reflect a reactive posture centered on budgetary triage, not systemic renewal. UN80 responds to a liquidity crisis, but avoids a structural recalibration of its purpose, mandates, and priorities. The result is a cycle of administrative change without political transformation. It is reform without redesign. Although still exploratory, the UN80 initiative is already receiving pushback. Some observers highlight that it recycles long-standing instruments of managerial reform. Others regret that its mapping of mandate addresses implementation and not prioritization or coherence. The most frequent criticism, however, is that member state consultation has been limited, undermining co-ownership and amplifying concerns of proceduralism: member states urge efficiency but resist structural change, while the Secretariat prioritizes viability over vision. The danger is a performative reform that narrows possibilities, repeating familiar templates without confronting foundational questions. To break the cycle, reform must be reconnected to political purpose. This paper proposes 10 recommendations to shift from reactive reform to institutional stewardship and structured intergovernmental engagement. These recommendations build on existing institutional levers, procedural tools, and political strategies, requiring no new mandates but a willingness to realign tools with political direction. The UN80 initiative comes at a pivotal moment. In an increasingly fragmented global order and declining trust in multilateralism, the stakes of UN reform are no longer limited to internal effectiveness: they now shape the UN’s external legitimacy, operational relevance, and political credibility. If reform remains decoupled from political ambition and absorbed procedurally, it risks being yet another empty exercise with little structural impact. UN80 is an opportunity, but only if reform is reclaimed as a political act.
Topic:: United Nations, Reform, Budget, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

219. AI for Justice and Justice for AI: Why Access to Justice Enables Better AI Governance

Author:: Nate Edwards
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The rapid development of emerging technology and artificial intelligence (AI) offers opportunities to create a more equal, just and inclusive world, but only if governance systems move in concert with innovation. To leverage the positive potential of AI, the multilateral system needs to utilize the tools already at its disposal. These tools include the capacity to set normative frameworks, institutionalize universal values, and facilitate collective action among diverse stakeholders. In particular, years of research, policy frameworks, partnership development, and programming to advance the sustainable development agenda (Agenda 2030) could become an asset to maximize the positive potential of the AI revolution. These longstanding efforts will not only benefit from new technologies, but they also offer tributaries by which the positive potential of AI can flow. One such effort is the international movement to provide equal access to justice for all by reshaping the way we think about justice and promoting a people-centered approach to addressing actual legal needs (SDG16.3). A world where everyone has equal access to justice would naturally complement more equal and inclusive AI governance. In fact, when designing new frameworks to regulate emerging technology, policymakers must use an approach that mitigates power imbalances at the individual and institutional levels, undercutting the risks of elite capture through increased accessibility of technology and its use. At the global level, too often the multilateral system is one step behind the world’s next challenge, and ill-prepared to recover from misaligned incentives, power imbalances, and unfettered capture. Focusing on justice could help the system catch up. This analysis makes a two-pronged argument: Strong, well-designed legal systems, with the principle of equal access to justice for all at the center, could support a more balanced, inclusive, and equitable AI revolution, while increasing access to the benefits of technology to everyone. Therefore, the multilateral system should prioritize equal access to justice for all as a way to facilitate the positive potential of AI. Reciprocally, an inclusive and equitable AI revolution could increase equal access to justice for all.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

220. Who’s Telling the Story on Inequality?

Author:: Raquel Jesse
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: A look at how rising inequality has been reframed by anti-rights movements—and why reclaiming the narrative is essential to building a just future The past four decades have witnessed an unprecedented surge in wealth inequality and left us buffeted by one financial crisis after another. As we stand on the brink of yet another recession, a historic realignment in the global order, unfolding in real time, has made the world more unpredictable and transactional than ever. One consequence of this larger trend of instability has been the emergence of a ‘new’ wave of anti-rights leaders and movements in the aftermath of the 2007–2009 global financial crash. These movements defy easy categorization—often labeled as ‘populist right-wing,’ ‘autocratic,’ ‘fascist,’ ‘illiberal democracy,’ or ‘far-right’— but what they share is a common playbook; a willingness to offer answers to the widespread fear, anxiety, and grievances people are experiencing. Yes, they wield significant economic, social, and cultural capital, and despite often inconsistent messaging, they’re often the loudest (and often the only) voices addressing these concerns, albeit through distorted narratives of inequality, class struggle, and identity politics. They frame society as a struggle against a corrupt elite that is more invested in “woke” agendas than ordinary families. As a result, division and polarization have become the dominant response to rising precarity and distrust, and indeed, inequality. This new CIC perspectives piece explores the following themes: When Policy Fails: The Strategic Rise of (Not So) Reactionary Economics; The Vicious Cycle of Inequality and Division; Pattern Recognition: People Know When They Are Being Left Behind; When the System Really Works—But Only for the Few; Inequality by Design: The Policies that Transferred Wealth to the Top; The Crisis in Multilateralism Didn’t Start Today; Reclaiming the Fight Against Inequality.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Multilateralism, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

221. It Is Time for Delegations to Unite on Tackling Inequality: Addressing Structural Challenges in Financing for Development Negotiations

Author:: Fernando Marani and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: As the international community prepares for the upcoming Fourth Financing for Development (FfD4) conference in Sevilla, Spain, the issue of inequality continues to stand out. Since 2020, the global economic landscape has undergone profound shifts, marked by the growth of extreme wealth concentration, heightened geopolitical competition, and a crisis of multilateralism. In this context, inequality has not merely become a social concern but a structural impediment to sustainable development and global economic stability. Extreme wealth inequality is accelerating at an unprecedented rate. In just the past year, billionaires’ wealth grew by USD 1 trillion—three times faster than in previous years. That did not happen by accident; it is the outcome of policy choices that have systematically favored capital accumulation over equitable growth. The colonial legacy has continued as USD 30 million is extracted per hour from the Global South to the Global North, further entrenching economic disparities between countries. As a multifaceted issue that ranges from material inequalities at the domestic level to the unequal distribution of decision-making power in multilateral organizations, inequality shapes the very foundations of the global economy. Addressing these disparities is therefore not just a matter of fairness but a prerequisite for effective and inclusive solutions in any framework for Financing for Development.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Exclusion, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

222. Hashtag Feminism or the Illusion of Progress

Author:: Alice Viollet
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Gender equality has gone corporate. Empowerment is trending, and institutions are fluent in the language of inclusion—but when feminism becomes a marketing strategy, what happens to real power, policy, and progress? Behind the glossy branding lies a troubling truth: institutional inaction, stalled reforms, and a persistent refusal to confront structural inequality. Despite gender equality marketing and feel-good narratives being louder than ever, the situation for women has not seen significant improvement in the past 15 years. This is not genuine progress; this disconnect between visibility and substance is a form of genderwashing —a superficial promotion of women’s rights through marketing and virtue signaling without meaningful, long-term material changes in policies, workforce structures, or decision-making representation. Genderwashing follows the same rhetorical pattern as “greenwashing” or “whitewashing:” it describes the practice of promoting an image of support for gender equality—for instance through public relations (PR) campaigns, social media posts, or branding—without enacting meaningful structural change. Genderwashing is about optics over action; it occurs when companies, organizations, institutions or public figures express support for women’s rights or gender equality, particularly on high-profile occasions such as International Women’s Day, without implementing real, substantive changes to correct gender imbalances, not even within their own structures.
Topic:: Women, Media, Inequality, Leadership, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

223. Easier Said than Done: Overcoming Coherence Challenges Within the United Nations System

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Personnel and budgetary policies and procedures can seem esoteric at best and incidental to the lofty work of the United Nations (UN), even to seasoned UN watchers. These issues, however, are not merely technical matters within the purview of administrative officers or Fifth Committee delegates. The normative and operational functioning of the United Nations is a function of its personnel and budgets, but not only as a matter of adequate resourcing. In fact, the policies and practices of the UN around the management of its personnel and budgets also have an outsized and underappreciated effect, including on whether mandates are implemented in a coherent and effective manner. This newest policy brief on overcoming coherence challenges within the UN from Eugene Chen, senior fellow, provides a primer for: Efforts to enhance UN coherence. Administrative obstacles to coherence. Observations and recommendations for UN bureaucratic leadership and member states.
Topic:: United Nations, Reform, Budget, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

224. The Process for Selecting the Secretary General of the United Nations

Author:: Mark Simonoff and Thibault Camelli
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: In 2026, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will engage in a process to select the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. The current Secretary-General, António Guterres, will complete his second five-year term at the end of 2026. This paper offers a historical overview of the evolution of the process for selecting and appointing the UN Secretary-General over time. This process consolidated decades of practices and rules, and was recently refined by the General Assembly in its resolution 79/3271 adopted on September 5, 2025. In short, the process has evolved from a non-transparent, closed-door exercise, almost exclusively dominated by the Security Council, to a more transparent and inclusive process involving more active and engaged participation from the General Assembly. This policy brief, originally published in July 2025, has been updated as of October 2025 to unpack this process.
Topic:: United Nations, UN Security Council, and Secretary General
Political Geography:: Global Focus

225. Geopolitical Influence & Peace

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This report, Geopolitical Influence & Peace, explores the shifting dynamics of global power, drawing comparisons to the Cold War while underscoring the unique challenges of today's interconnected and multipolar world. Geopolitical risks today exceed levels seen during the Cold War, driven by heightened military spending, stalled efforts at nuclear disarmament, and a diminished role for multilateral institutions like the United Nations. At the same time, global power is being redistributed, with emerging middle powers reshaping the landscape through strategic investments and influence-building initiatives. These shifts challenge the dominance of traditional Western powers, creating both opportunities and vulnerabilities in global governance. Economic stagnation further complicates the picture, as developing nations grapple with mounting debt burdens that divert critical resources away from health, education, and infrastructure. Unlike the bipolar structure that prevailed in most of the 20th-century Cold War, the current global landscape is shaped by technological dominance, economic interdependence, and influence competition across emerging regions such as Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. While China's rise is clear, emerging regional powers, such as Brazil, Türkiye, United Arab Emirates, South Africa and Indonesia are also seeking to shape regional and global dynamics. The proliferation of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and 5G infrastructure has transformed power dynamics, with states vying to secure strategic dominance in these areas. Meanwhile, economic interdependence, once seen as a stabilising force, is increasingly weaponised, as seen in trade wars, sanctions, and the deliberate decoupling of supply chains in critical industries. These dynamics are exacerbated by the intensification of proxy conflicts, hybrid warfare tactics, and disinformation campaigns that further destabilise global alliances and erode trust among nations. In exploring the current dynamics of global power, the report addresses the challenges of a multipolar world and the implications for the developing world. Developing countries can face economic disruptions, diminished development funding, and governance challenges due to shifts in geopolitics of the major powers. During the Cold War, developing countries became arenas for proxy wars, economic exploitation, and political interference, exacerbating instability, poverty, and underdevelopment. Today, as global power struggles intensify, nations in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia risk becoming similarly entangled, facing increased economic pressures, disrupted trade partnerships, and reduced access to critical investments. Debt servicing costs now outweigh investments in essential services for many developing countries, undermining their capacity for sustainable growth. Moreover, the plateauing of global trade integration limits economic opportunities, further constraining development pathways for emerging economies. Competition for influence among powerful nations may undermine local governance and development priorities, diverting attention from urgent challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, and peacebuilding. A nuanced understanding of these dynamics is crucial to ensure that developing countries are supported in long-term stability and development.
Topic:: Cold War, Development, Economics, Geopolitics, Peace, Strategic Competition, Multipolarity, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

226. Electoral Management Body Leadership Transitions

Author:: Staffan Darnolf and Rushdi Nackerdien
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Executive leadership transitions within Election Management Bodies (EMBs) can profoundly impact the credibility and effectiveness of electoral processes. Whether planned or unexpected, leadership changes at the highest level can disrupt institutional continuity, unsettle operational readiness, and undermine public trust. In 2024, India offered a striking example of this dual challenge: just weeks before its general elections,1 the resignation of Election Commissioner occurred just after the planned retirement of another commissioner, leaving only the Chief Electoral Commissioner in place to oversee a complex national vote. 2 This combination of both a foreseeable and a sudden departure placed the EMB in a precarious position at a critical moment.3 Similar risks have emerged in other contexts. In 2018, Lesotho's Independent Electoral Commission saw the dismissal of all three commissioners amid allegations of misconduct, requiring swift intervention to restore institutional legitimacy. That same year in Kenya, three commissioners from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) resigned abruptly due to internal disputes, leaving the body weakened ahead of key electoral processes. In contrast, Australia’s 2024 transition was marked by the orderly retirement of long-serving Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers, whose departure was announced months in advance, allowing for a planned succession. These varied cases illustrate that without dedicated and well-prepared executive transition strategies, EMBs risk not only internal instability but also the broader integrity of the democratic processes they are mandated to protect. This White Paper is a first effort to outline how EMBs can learn from the experiences of their peers when it comes to improving their executive leadership transition process. To date, much of the EMB leadershiprelated research has focused on the appointment process for commissioners and how the process can impact the EMB’s independence, while very limited attention has been paid to executive leadership transitions. Effective transitions contribute significantly to the success of new executives and the overall integrity of the electoral process. This White Paper makes the case that by ensuring that transitions are well-planned, commissioners are better positioned to swiftly and competently take the reins of the EMB and thereby maintain high levels of trust and confidence among stakeholders. This, in turn, reinforces the credibility of elections and the democratic process. Whether the transition is foreseen well in advance or sudden and unexpected, a structured and proactive approach can help EMBs navigate these changes smoothly, ensuring that they continue to uphold their mandate effectively and without jeopardizing public trust.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

227. Understanding Young People’s Political and Civic Engagement as a Counter to Democratic Backsliding

Author:: Sarah Timreck and Cassandra Emmons
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Incorporating young people’s voices into political and civic decision-making is fundamentally important in an era marked by democratic declines and rising authoritarianism around the globe1. A large cohort of motivated and engaged young people who participate in efforts to build communal trust, generate social cohesion, and promote political inclusion of diverse populations could help tip the scales in favor of democracy. This report seeks to address the efforts needed to engage young people to support democratic resilience by answering the following questions from the IFES 2023-2026 Learning Agenda: What types of informal civic engagement can lead to greater or more formal political and civic engagement among youth? How can these types of engagement be harnessed to fight against authoritarianism? This research and its findings and recommendations are intended for a broad audience. Answers to the questions will be useful for democracy and governance practitioners, donors, and policymakers, as well as others who engage with young people across the development and education sectors. As explored throughout the report, individuals and groups engage in the political and civic life of their communities in many ways. To start, we need to understand this nuance. In this report, we classify activities based on two dimensions: goal, meaning whether an individual endeavors to influence political or civic outcomes, and procedure, capturing whether an engagement effort is formal or nonformal. Activities fall into four main categories along the two dimensions: formal political engagement (voting, joining a political party); formal civic engagement (taking a civic education course in school, participating in a club or association); nonformal political engagement (attending a protest, following political leaders on social media); and nonformal civic engagement (engaging with peers or community members on social issues of importance).
Topic:: Politics, Youth, Resilience, Civic Engagement, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

228. Towards a New Development Theory for the Global South

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: As progressive governments take office in the Global South, now more than ever there is a burning need for a new development theory that can fulfil the Promethean aspirations of the darker nations.
Topic:: Development, Politics, Global South, Modernization, Progressivism, and Marxism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

229. Imperialist War and Feminist Resistance in the Global South

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Women creatively resist the impact of unilateral coercive measures (UCMs), a form of hyper-imperialist hybrid warfare that reinforces patriarchy and other forms of social discrimination.
Topic:: Imperialism, Women, Global South, Discrimination, Feminism, Patriarchy, Warfare, and Unilateral Coercive Measures (UCMs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

230. How the World Looks from Tricontinental

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In July 2015, social and political movements gathered for the Second Dilemmas of Humanity Conference and set in motion what would become Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. A decade later, we take stock of our view of the world and what lies ahead.
Topic:: Economics, Imperialism, and Global South
Political Geography:: Global Focus

231. NATO: The Most Dangerous Organisation on Earth

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is the only real military bloc in the world – one whose mandate and ambitions stretch far beyond the North Atlantic and, in fact, constitute the greatest threat to world peace.
Topic:: NATO, Armed Forces, Global South, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

232. The Environmental Crisis Is a Capitalist Crisis

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: One of humanity’s greatest challenges today is the environmental crisis, which threatens our very existence. Our latest dossier explores its class character, showing that the climate catastrophe is a product of capitalism’s relentless drive for accumulation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Capitalism, and Class
Political Geography:: Global Focus

233. Steering Technological Progress

Author:: Anton Korinek and Joseph Stiglitz
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Rapid progress in new technologies such as AI has led to widespread anxiety about adverse labor market impacts. This paper asks how to guide innovative efforts so as to increase labor demand and create betterpaying jobs while also evaluating the limitations of such an approach. We develop a theoretical framework to identify the properties that make an innovation desirable from the perspective of workers, including its technological complementarity to labor, the factor share of labor in producing the goods involved, and the relative income of the affected workers. Applications include robot taxation, factor-augmenting progress, and task automation. We find that steering technology becomes more desirable the less efficient social safety nets are. If technological progress devalues labor, the desirability of steering is at first increased, but beyond a critical threshold, it becomes less effective, and policy should shift toward greater redistribution. If labor's economic value diminishes in the future, progress should increasingly focus on enhancing human well-being rather than labor productivity.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Inequality, Artificial Intelligence, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

234. AI, Antitrust & Privacy

Author:: Maurice E. Stucke
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping how companies profile individuals, create and target ads, and influence behavior—often in ways that undermine privacy, autonomy, and democracy. This article explores a critical but overlooked question: how AI affects the relationship between competition and privacy. Increased competition in the AI supply chain may seem like a solution to Big Tech’s dominance, but when firms are rewarded for surveillance and manipulation, more competition can actually make things worse. Drawing on recent market trends and twenty state privacy laws, the Article shows how the existing legal frameworks—even those designed to protect privacy—fall short and may unintentionally entrench the power of few data-opolies. It argues that privacy and competition must be addressed together, not in silos, and offers specific legislative reforms to help align business incentives with public interests. Without stronger guardrails, AI risks accelerating a race to the bottom—fueled not only by powerful technologies, but by well-intentioned, but flawed policies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, Supply Chains, and Antitrust
Political Geography:: Global Focus

235. Inflationary Inertia as a Result of Unfulfilled Aspirations

Author:: Nicolás M. Burotto
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: I develop a discrete-time Keynesian D/Z model in which inflationary inertia arises from distributional conflict between firms and workers. The mechanism centers on aspiration gaps— the divergence between actual real wages and income targets—which, when combined with strong bargaining power, generate persistent inflation even after conventional macroeconomic gaps close. The model shows that equilibrium in real wages does not guarantee distributional balance, and that market mechanisms alone cannot restore stability. This underscores the need for a “social consensus” that moderates aspiration dynamics and defuses conflict-driven inflationary pressures.
Topic:: Economics, Inflation, Labor Market, Price, Wages, and Inertia
Political Geography:: Global Focus

236. Kalecki and the Stucturalist View of Economic Development

Author:: Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper commemorates the 70th anniversary of Kalecki’s seminal lecture in Mexico on financing economic development. The first part of this paper outlines the theoretical model underlying Kalecki’s view of development financing. A second part of the paper summarizes the foundations of structuralist development economics in the Prebisch-Singer approach to international trade and import-substitution development strategies. A third part of the paper examines the confrontation between Kalecki’s view of economic development strategy, and the structuralist approach, in the case of Cuba, highlighting the differences between the two approaches. A fourth part concludes with some reflections on the relevance today of structuralism and Kalecki’s view of economic development.
Topic:: Finance, Economic Development, Imports, Land Reform, and Structuralist Economics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

237. People-Powered Energy Transitions in Resource-Rich Countries

Author:: Ana Carolina González Espinosa, Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, and Danilo Borja
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: The climate crisis has negatively impacted developing countries and marginalized groups disproportionately in comparison with their developed counterparts. Since 1991, developing countries have accounted for 79 percent of recorded deaths due to extreme weather, and 97 percent of the total recorded number of people affected by the impacts of such weather. Women and girls are more likely than men and boys to die in extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and intense. Worryingly, solutions to fight the climate crisis, including the energy transition, might add new burdens to low- and middle-income countries and marginalized groups. This situation is particularly challenging for resource-rich countries, given possible shocks to resource revenues and labor markets, socio-environmental and governance challenges, the intensification of social conflicts, and the lack of universal, affordable and reliable energy access.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Participation, Civil Society Organizations, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

238. From Mine to Market: Using Traceability to Fight Mineral Sector Corruption

Author:: National Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: In the global rush for transition minerals, the path from mine to market may become a corridor of corruption. It’s a journey where smuggled minerals vanish, illicit funds are laundered, and communities are left behind. Traceability, then, isn’t just about tracking a product for commercial reasons; it’s about how it can be used to build responsible and resilient value chains. This two-page briefing explains how traceability systems can help identify corruption risks in mineral supply chains and support stronger due diligence. It outlines practical ways companies, governments and civil society can use traceability data to detect red flags, strengthen transparency and promote accountability—from mine to market.
Topic:: Corruption, Markets, Mining, Energy Transition, and Traceability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

239. Parameters to Assess Escalation Risks in Space

Author:: Nivedita Raju
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: Space-enabled services are critical for various civilian and military purposes. Current military uses of space—for example, in the Russia–Ukraine War—indicate several avenues for unpredictability and ambiguity, which can increase potential for escalation, both in space and on earth. Yet, there is no common understanding of escalation risks in the international community. This SIPRI Research Policy Paper identifies four parameters to assess escalation risks in the space domain: the target, the capability used, the effect and the consequences. These parameters can help establish a standardized approach to assess whether an attack is escalatory. Based on current trends that undermine predictability and transparency in space activities, these parameters inform recommendations to minimize escalation risks. These recommendations include proposals to limit attacks on high-value strategically significant space systems; undertake exchanges on critical infrastructure; characterize acts that are especially escalatory; to enhance resilience of space-based services for civilians; and to build a typology that identifies potential harms. The recommendations also demand further action from states to implement and enforce international law governing space activities and to engage with commercial actors to raise awareness and clearly establish their accountability.
Topic:: Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Disarmament, Space, Risk Assessment, and Nuclear Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

240. Impact of Military Artificial Intelligence on Nuclear Escalation Risk

Author:: Vladislav Chernavskikh and Jules Palayer
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: Increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military systems has the potential to influence nuclear escalation even when that integration occurs outside nuclear weapon systems. Non-nuclear applications of military AI may compress decision-making timelines, potentially increasing miscalculation risks during a crisis. Opaque recommendations from an AI-powered decision-support system can bias a decision maker towards acting, while autonomy in a system with counterforce potential may undermine strategic stability by threatening the integrity of second-strike capabilities. Such uses of AI raise the fundamental question of whether they introduce new risks, exacerbate existing ones or fundamentally alter the nature of nuclear escalation. Contextual and socio-technical factors that might affect nuclear escalation pathways can help to answer this question. Understanding these dynamics is essential for using current risk-reduction measures or developing new strategies to address nuclear escalation risks posed by military AI.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Artificial Intelligence, Military, Armament, and Nuclear Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

241. Advancing Governance at the Nexus of Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons

Author:: Fei Su, Vladislav Chernavskikh, and Wilfred Wan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: The rapid advancement of military artificial intelligence (AI), especially its potential integration into nuclear systems, presents significant risks to strategic stability and established deterrence practices. Despite these concerns, no dedicated governance framework currently exists to address the specific challenges of the AI–nuclear nexus. Existing initiatives have primarily focused on ensuring human control over nuclear decision-making. There are a number of state-led initiatives on the governance of military AI more broadly. They can be adapted to address the use of AI in nuclear weapons, but applying them will not be straightforward. There is thus a need to extend the conversation beyond the ‘human in the loop’ concept and develop targeted governance measures. Future discussions could investigate the precise level and degree of required human control and set clear red lines for both the extent and the type of AI integration in nuclear and related systems.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Governance, Disarmament, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

242. Strengthening the OSCE’s Climate Security Agenda

Author:: Emma Hakala and Florian Krampe
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: Despite a clear mandate from the December 2021 Stockholm Ministerial Council Decision on Strengthening Co-operation to Address the Challenges Caused by Climate Change, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) approach is yet to reach its full potential. An analysis of the current strategy shows that while the OSCE has strengths, such as a comprehensive security mandate and a grassroots presence through its field operations, its effectiveness is undermined by weaknesses, such as geopolitical distractions, a tendency to focus on general environmental work rather than security and poor integration between headquarters and field missions. To strengthen its work, the OSCE should frame climate change as a cross-dimensional security risk, create an annual integrated climate and environmental security assessment and improve internal cooperation. These actions would better prepare the organization for a changing security landscape.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, and OSCE
Political Geography:: Global Focus

243. Climate Change, Human Mobility and Security

Author:: Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: This SIPRI Policy Brief explores the connected challenges of climate change, human mobility and security, highlighting how fragmented policies and misconceptions—such as the myth of mass climate migration—hinder effective responses. The brief contributes to addressing this gap by presenting findings on three underexplored dynamics across the mobility spectrum. It finds that urban migration can support adaptation but also strain urban conditions, involuntary immobility can heighten people’s vulnerabilities, and poorly designed climate action can lead to displacement, inequality or unrest. These dynamics show that governance determines the security outcomes of human mobility. To address this, the policy brief calls for safe, rights-based migration that facilitates climate adaptation; support for the most vulnerable, immobile populations; and people-led, democratic climate action.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Governance, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

244. Firm-level Climate Vulnerability and Corporate Risk-taking: International Evidence

Author:: Md Lutfur Rahman and Sudipta Bose
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This study examines the association between firm-level climate change risk exposure and corporate risk-taking using a sample of 50,782 firm-year observations from 2003 to 2021 across 58 countries worldwide. Using a time-varying measure of firm-level climate change risk exposure derived from corporate conference call transcripts, we find a negative relationship between firm-level climate change risk exposure and corporate risk-taking. We also find that the negative association is more pronounced for firms with higher environmental innovation and firms domiciled in countries with stakeholder-oriented business cultures and stronger governance. Our key finding is robust under several alternative corporate risk-taking and climate change risk exposure proxies. The findings of this study could be used by policymakers to enact regulations limiting risky investments in climate-vulnerable sectors or to provide economic safety nets for businesses impacted by climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Business, Risk, Innovation, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

245. Unhealthy Subsidies: How Much Do Taxpayers Contribute to Promote Disease?

Author:: William D. Savedoff, Katherine Klemperer, and Pete Baker
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Health taxes are a well-known fiscal measure for discouraging consumption of unhealthy products like tobacco, alcohol, and sugary beverages. Less well known are opportunities to eliminate government subsidies. This paper is an inquiry into subsidies for tobacco, alcohol, and sugary beverages, products that are particularly harmful to health and, as Adam Smith noted in 1776, “which are nowhere necessaries of life.” This paper estimates the revenues that could be saved by eliminating two types of subsidies for these products: budgetary transfers to farmers and forgone revenues from the tax deductibility of promotional spending. According to the agricultural subsidy database of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), government transfers to tobacco, alcohol, and sugar producers in 2022 amounted to less than US$10 billion worldwide. In 2023, forgone revenue from nine of the largest manufacturers of cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, and sugary beverages was about US$16.2 billion (about 20 percent of the US$85 billion these companies spent on product promotion). China is the one country confirmed to have a policy that does not allow tobacco manufacturers to deduct promotional spending as a business expense. This policy has led to increased revenues and indirectly discouraged smoking and its ill health effects. By contrast, other unhealthy subsidies are much larger. Some US$510 billion of taxpayer money promotes cultivation of vegetable oils and cereal crops—much of them used to produce ultraprocessed foods that contribute to noncommunicable disease. Fossil fuel subsidies, which harm health in many ways, are about US$1.3 trillion annually. Regardless of the scale, any existing taxpayer-supported subsidies for unhealthy products provide countries with a clear opportunity to save money and improve health. Identifying and eliminating such subsidies is a win for increased fiscal capacity and a win for better, longer lives.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Public Health, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

246. Does World Bank Climate Adaptation Finance Go to the Most Vulnerable Countries?

Author:: Nancy Lee, Samuel Matthews, and James Reid
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: lobal underinvestment in climate adaptation increases the importance of ensuring that such finance is well targeted and well spent. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are the largest public source of adaptation finance for developing countries, and the World Bank accounts for about half of the MDB total. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that World Bank allocation of adaptation finance prioritizes countries that are more exposed to the effects of climate change and less able to adapt on their own. Using 10 years of World Bank projects and the ND-GAIN country index, we analyze the distribution of adaptation finance by grouping countries according to their vulnerability, defined by their exposure to climate change and capacity to adapt. The most vulnerable countries tend to be very poor, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, dependent on agriculture, more fragile and conflict-affected, and burdened by weaker governance. We find that the most vulnerable countries with low adaptive capacity received relatively less adaptation finance than countries with higher adaptive capacity over the period (2014-2023). World Bank adaptation finance meets only a small fraction of their needs. The finance mostly funds climate-resilient infrastructure, but surprisingly little climate-resilient agriculture. The World Bank has greatly ramped up adaptation finance for these countries over the period, but low-capacity countries still get relatively less. Four policy implications flow from this analysis: (1) an expanded IDA is vital as the most important source of adaptation finance for these countries; (2) countries that are both climate vulnerable and fragile/conflict-affected should receive special access to IDA resources: a “top-up” in their performance-based allocations; (3) a greater World Bank upstream project development effort is essential to make it possible to productively spend more IDA adaptation finance in these countries; and (4) increased support for climate-resilient agriculture would yield high economic, social, and security returns.
Topic:: Climate Change, World Bank, Climate Finance, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

247. Toxic Lead Paint Pigment Exports from Rich to Poor Countries

Author:: Rory Todd, Lee Crawfurd, and Rachel Bonnifield
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Lead poisoning affects one in three children globally, with large but neglected impacts on health and education. One important source of exposure is lead in paint, of which one key additive is the pigment lead chromate. Lead chromate is toxic and safe alternatives exist: its use is effectively prohibited in the European Union and the UK, and is highly restricted in other high-income countries. In this paper we present new data documenting the global trade in lead chromate. Exports of lead chromate are dominated by companies based in India, but we also show significant ongoing exports from high-income countries including the United States, Canada, and Spain, despite these countries placing bans or strong restrictions on its use in their own territories. Many of these exports go to countries with potentially low capacity to regulate its end-use and prevent highly hazardous applications. While the harm posed by any particular shipment or actor depends on the end-use of the exported lead chromate, which is not possible to determine, the volume of exports from rich to poor countries could be sufficient to poison hundreds of thousands of children, harming health and holding back educational progress. We conclude with recommendations to policymakers to end the detrimental and unnecessary use of lead chromate, including to support its regulation through the Rotterdam Convention, the primary international agreement for the regulation of hazardous chemicals.
Topic:: Education, Children, Global Health, Well-Being, and Lead
Political Geography:: Global Focus

248. The Evolving Global Landscape for Nutrition-Specific Financing: Taking Stock, Moving Forward

Author:: Janeen Madan Keller and Rosie Eldridge
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: he global architecture to address undernutrition—a leading cause of under-five mortality—is evolving against a backdrop of global economic challenges and constrained resources. This puts funding for nutrition-specific interventions at risk, at a time when budgets are not keeping pace with growing needs. Despite strong evidence of impact and cost-effectiveness, nutrition interventions are consistently underprioritized and underresourced within the health sector. Three key dynamics of the current financing landscape underpin these challenges: (1) a highly fragmentated architecture, (2) reliance on volatile external funding from a small group of core donors, and (3) low domestic spending. Drawing from relevant experiences in the broader global health landscape, this paper proposes four policy recommendations to enhance the near-term impact and long-term sustainability of nutrition-specific financing: (1) leveraging additional resources for nutrition via the multilateral development banks, (2) exploring options to make external financing more stable and predictable, (3) preparing countries to transition from external financing, and (4) implementing results-based funding to drive greater accountability. Upcoming milestones, namely the 2025 Nutrition for Growth Summit, provide governments, donors, and development partners a window of opportunity to elevate nutrition on the global health and development agenda and adjust the course of nutrition-specific financing over the next decade.
Topic:: Finance, Nutrition, Global Health, and Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

249. La Geopolítica de las Regiones Polares: Desafíos y Oportunidades en un Mundo Cambiante

Author:: Samuel Morales
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Este artículo examina la evolución de la geopolítica en las regiones polares —el Ártico y la Antártida— en el contexto de un mundo marcado por el cambio climático, la competencia por recursos estratégicos, el ascenso de nuevas potencias y la transformación del sistema internacional. A través de un enfoque comparado, se analizan las estructuras de gobernanza, los intereses geoestratégicos, los conflictos emergentes y las oportunidades de cooperación en ambas regiones. En el caso del Ártico, el trabajo identifica una creciente militarización, competencia por hidrocarburos y minerales críticos, así como el interés de actores extrarregionales como China. La gobernanza, basada en el Consejo Ártico y en acuerdos multilaterales como la UNCLOS, muestra limitaciones frente a tensiones interestatales y amenazas ambientales. La Antártida, en contraste, se mantiene bajo un régimen jurídico sólido —el Sistema del Tratado Antártico— que ha logrado preservar la paz y la cooperación científica. Sin embargo, la posible revisión del Protocolo de Madrid en 2048 y la presión por acceder a recursos biológicos y otros activos plantean desafíos futuros. El artículo propone una lectura sistémica e interdisciplinaria de las regiones polares, sugiriendo reformas en los regímenes de gobernanza, mayor inclusión de actores no estatales e instrumentos jurídicos adaptativos.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Resources, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

250. La Guerra Cognitiva: Opción Estratégica Emergente en la Zona Gris de la Competición Geopolítica

Author:: Soledad Segoviano
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: La guerra cognitiva se define como un conjunto de actividades destinadas a influir, modificar o controlar percepciones, emociones, actitudes, comportamientos y procesos de toma de decisiones con el objetivo de alterar las capacidades cognitivas de individuos y grupos para alcanzar una posición de ventaja estratégica sobre los adversarios sin necesidad de recurrir al uso directo de la fuerza. La guerra cognitiva, un concepto emergente donde se desdibujan los límites entre la guerra y la paz, se fundamenta en el uso de las ciencias neurocognitivas y otros avances científicos y tecnológicos, como la nanotecnología, la biotecnología o la robótica, para manipular y perturbar la cognición humana, un componente fundamental en el actual entorno de seguridad internacional. Este artículo presenta la guerra cognitiva como una opción estratégica al servicio de los intereses de poder y seguridad de diferentes competidores globales en un escenario internacional definido por la transformación y la creciente rivalidad geopolítica.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Hybrid Warfare, Cognitive Warfare, and Neuroscience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS