Political Geography: Global Focus

201. Minilateral Mechanisms for Peacemaking in a Multipolar World: Friends, Contact Groups, Troikas, Quads, and Quints

Author:: Teresa Whitfield
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Informal “minilateral” coalitions of the willing and interested have long been a feature of peacemaking. Groups of states identified as “friends” of the mediator or a particular peace process and contact groups bringing together interested powers date back to concert diplomacy traditions and proliferated at the end of the Cold War as conflict resolution activity surged. The incidence of such informal mechanisms grew exponentially between 1990 and 2009. This report assesses how these mechanisms have evolved in the years since 2010 and investigates their place in parallel to the UN’s efforts to mediate internationalized internal conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen; peace processes in the Philippines, Colombia, and Mozambique taking place in relatively benign regional settings, as well as the anomalous case of Venezuela, where efforts toward a peaceful resolution of the political crisis were mired in international divisions; the geopolitically contested contexts of Myanmar and Afghanistan; and the democratic transition and descent into war in Sudan. The report concludes that groups have the potential to build internal coherence among their members, as well as to elevate public messaging and facilitate information sharing, but they can also become a forum for competition between their members. In this context, the report offers lessons to help those considering whether a group is appropriate. The “right” group structure will depend on the context, and the adage of “form follows function” is critically important. It is key to set realistic expectations and, in some cases, accept that the “right” structure will be no group at all. Successful groups and partnerships all point to the importance of skilled individual mediators committed to working with each other, whether within a group or without an established mechanism. Finally, some contexts may defy attempts to design or deliver a coherent international peace architecture. In these cases, more modest goals related to specific or localized gains and incremental support to conflict parties and other affected communities should be pursued.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

202. Infrastructure Grids and Networks. The Challenges Ahead, amid Security and Efficiency

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In recent years, accelerating geopolitical tensions, economic disruptions, and climate-related disasters have elevated resilience and economic security to the forefront of both global and European policy agendas. In response, strategies such as de-risking have driven substantial investments in redundancy, new trade corridors, and expanded infrastructure – including railway lines, highways, ports, electricity grids, pipelines, and undersea digital cables. This infrastructure forms the backbone of the global economy. It is not only crucial for maintaining competitiveness and supporting growth but also plays a central role in enabling the energy and digital transitions. As such, protecting these systems from hostile actions or third-party interference has become an urgent priority. At the same time, the long-standing trade-off between efficiency and security has grown more pronounced amid increasingly strained international relations. Both governments and private sector actors are now more willing to absorb higher costs in order to enhance the resilience of supply chains and connectivity networks. Against this backdrop, a new paradigm is emerging - one that raises two critical questions: Where will the balance ultimately settle between economic efficiency and security/resilience? And what investment priorities will shape the future of transport, energy, and digital connectivity infrastructure?
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Economy, Energy, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

203. Lonely in the Crowd: Plugged or Remote?

Author:: Tobia Zevi
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic forced cities to shut down and citizens to stay home, disrupting economic activity and social life. The crisis pushed companies to adopt remote work, transforming it from a niche practice to a widespread norm, altering the balance between work and personal life. This shift created inequalities across sectors and influenced the ability of "global cities" to attract talent in a globalized labor market. Now, as the pandemic has receded, many companies are reversing course. This Report explores how remote work has impacted cities and citizens, from mobility to urban planning. How can remote work reshape global cities? What strategies are available to local authorities? Is remote work still the future?
Topic:: Cities, COVID-19, Labor Market, Digitalization, and Remote Work
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

204. Gender diversity and economic growth

Author:: Jonathan Ostry
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Most macroeconomic and growth accounting models assume that male and female workers are perfectly substitutable in the aggregate production function. Whether this assumption is valid is an empirical question that this paper aims to answer by estimating the elasticity of substitution between female and male labour. We apply linear and non-linear techniques to firm-level data, cross-country sectoral data and cross-country aggregate data. We find that women and men are far from being perfect substitutes in production, a result that is consistent with much microeconomic evidence, but has not permeated to macroeconomics. The failure to account for imperfect gender substitutability has far-reaching implications. In particular, standard growth accounting exercises are likely to attribute to technological progress gains that are more properly attributable to the impact of greater gender inclusiveness in the labour force over time. Put differently, the gains from gender inclusiveness are likely to be much larger than standard economic models estimate.
Topic:: Governance, Women, Employment, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

205. Sovereigns on thinning ice: debt sustainability, climate impacts and adaptation

Author:: Matteo Calcaterra, Andrea Consiglio, Vincenzo Martorana, Massimo Tavoni, and Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A fundamental problem for sovereigns enacting climate policies is whether they can manage increasing debts as their economies suffer from adverse climate impacts. We develop stochastic debt sustainability analysis integrating a coupled climate-economy model with debt financing scenario optimisation, and stress test sovereign debt for representative countries globally under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change marker narrative scenarios of climate change. The stress test combines socioeconomic and climate pathways with calibrated aleatory scenario trees of economic, fiscal and financial variables to generate forward-looking debt projections over the century. These projections incorporate climate-induced damages to economic growth, spanning the broad spectrum of impact functions from the literature. Our findings reveal significant risks to sovereign debt sustainability, particularly under high climate damages, that are large from mid-century. Expected costs increase by up to 3 percent of GDP under high climate impact in a world of regional rivalries, or 0.25 percent under low impact in a middle-of-the-road narrative, with considerable variation between countries. The long-run debts of highly impacted countries are unsustainable. We assess whether adaptation investments or fiscal consolidation can mitigate potential climate-debt crises. Public financing of reactive adaptation is a justified expenditure that breaks even but does not fully restore the debt sustainability of highly impacted high-debt countries. Maintaining public spending while ensuring debt sustainability appears infeasible under climate impacts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

206. The Misleading Panic over Misinformation

Author:: David Inserra
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Misinformation is widely viewed as one of the most serious challenges facing modern societies. Together with the related terms “disinformation” and “malinformation,” nearly every present-day issue involves claims of misinformation. As a result, a host of actors have dedicated significant amounts of resources to the problem of incorrect or misleading information, especially online.
Topic:: Regulation, Freedom of Expression, and Misinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

207. Global Futures Bulletin: The BRICS and the Decarbonization and Biodiversity Protection Challenges

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: The world faces an unprecedented convergence of environmental crises – climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss – that collectively threaten the planet’s ecological balance and humanity’s future. Reversing the Triple Planetary Crisis necessitates urgent and coordinated action across all sectors and countries, accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies while protecting biodiversity are key challenges for the coming years. Countries that have joined the BRICS in its inception (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasingly an important geopolitical force in current global politics, and their individual and collective action is key to the success of concerted global action. The group’s recent expansion – BRICS+ includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Indonesia joining in 2025 and Saudi Arabia finally formalizing its membership – offers an opportunity to boost the role of their New Development Bank (NDB) in bridging climate, biodiversity, and development finance, and aim for greater policy coherence for concerted global action across these agendas. Combined, BRICS countries are not only biodiversity and energy-rich but also contribute to a large share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This Strategic Paper examines the role of the expanded BRICS+ and explores whether and how this “mini-multilateral” grouping, with its considerable human and technological capacity, can address two major global challenges: accelerating decarbonization and protecting biological diversity. The discussion is framed around the opportunities and challenges faced by the member countries to increase their ambitions and become leading voices in these agendas – not only for BRICS countries (some of which are among the most biodiverse in the world) but also for the wider international community. Without a strong commitment by BRICS countries (individually and as a group) the world will fail to accelerate action on decarbonization and biodiversity protection.
Topic:: Climate Change, Pollution, BRICS, Decarbonization, Biodiversity, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:: Russia, China, South Africa, Brazil, and Global Focus

208. The Gendered Impact of Social Norms on Financial Access and Capital Misallocation

Author:: Arti Grover and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper provides evidence on the nature of financial constraints faced by women entrepreneurs, especially in contexts of stringent social norms. Using micro-data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for 61 countries, the analysis shows that formal firms managed by women do not face credit constraints on the extensive margin. They are equally likely to apply for credit as their male counterparts and experience lower rates of credit rejection, with a higher likelihood of opening credit lines. However, on the intensive margin, firms managed by women receive lower credit amounts, indicating signs of credit constraints. This disparity in access to credit cannot be explained by gender differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity. However, firms managed by women have lower sales per worker, suggesting challenges in accessing product and labor markets. The paper finds suggestive evidence of capital misallocation based on gender, particularly in countries with more restrictive gender and cultural norms. Firms managed by women demonstrate a 15 percent higher average return on capital compared to firms managed by men, indicating the potential benefits of increased access to credit for women-led businesses. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing gender-specific constraints to accessing finance and promoting gender-inclusive policies to enhance firm growth and reduce capital misallocation.
Topic:: Culture, Fiscal Policy, Credit, Capital, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

209. Childhood Welfare Exposure and Economic Outcomes for Adult Daughters and Sons

Author:: Robert Paul Hartley, Carlos Lamarche, and James P. Ziliak
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We investigate how length of time on welfare during childhood affects economic outcomes in early adulthood. Using intergenerationally linked mother-child pairs from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we adopt a nonlinear difference-in-differences framework using the 1990s welfare reform to estimate average and quantile treatment effects on intensity of welfare use and earnings in adulthood. The causal estimates indicate that additional childhood welfare exposure leads to more adulthood years on the broader safety net for both daughters and sons, yet this positive relationship only applies below moderate levels of adult welfare participation and reverses at greater levels of dependence. Increasing childhood welfare exposure implies lower earnings in adulthood for daughters, however we find no evidence that it depresses adult sons’ earnings. Both daughters and sons exhibit some wage penalty from childhood welfare exposure, yet only daughters are penalized through hours worked in the labor market.
Topic:: Economics, Income Inequality, Welfare, Labor Market, Gender, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:: Global Focus

210. Hard Times, Hard Attitudes? The Effect of Economic Downturns on Gender Norms

Author:: Inés Berniell, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Mariana Viollaz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential mechanisms with conflicting outcomes. Using microdata from the World Values Survey for a panel of 103 countries that cover close to 90% of the world population, we estimate individual-level probability models of agreement with traditional gender roles over the period 1995 to 2021, including country and year fixed effects. We find that an increase in unemployment is associated to more conservative views about gender roles in the labor market. This result is remarkably robust across different groups and specifications. We also find that some contextual factors matter. In particular, the link between higher unemployment and more conservative views on gender roles is stronger in countries with, on average, higher gender inequality and lower female labor force participation. Overall, this study contributes to a growing body of research on the complex relationship between economic conditions, gender norms, and social change.
Topic:: Economics, Unemployment, Attitudes, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

211. The Future of Work(ers) in the Age of Technological Revolution

Author:: Andrés César
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: This chapter reviews key literature on the determinants and implications of technological change associated with the Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions, which have spread globally since the late 20th century, and presents descriptive evidence. The main conclusion is that while technological progress has not significantly threatened overall employment opportunities, it has clearly contributed to rising income inequality. Consequently, a future devoid of employment is not anticipated, although the prospects for equality remain uncertain. I argue that to maximize the benefits of technological advancement, education must evolve in tandem with technology, equipping individuals to work alongside new innovations throughout their lives. This would enable workers to fully leverage automation of routine tasks and augmentation of abstract and cognitive tasks, fostering teamwork, problem-solving, flexibility, creativity, and social intelligence. Furthermore, productivity growth driven by technological progress is likely to increase demand for both traditional and new goods and services, generate income gains that increase demand for quality, accelerate structural change, and exert pressure on resource utilization.
Topic:: Education, Science and Technology, Income Distribution, Jobs, Technological Revolution, and Resource Utilization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

212. Peripheral Growth Models and the Global Economy: A Second Image IPE Perspective

Author:: Michael Schedelik and Andreas Nölke
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: The paper departs from the perspective of “second image IPE,” i.e., the need to closely combine Comparative Political Economy (CPE) and International Political Economy (IPE). More specifically, it focuses on the observation that the growth models in the (former) periphery of the global economy (a typical focus of CPE) are strongly shaped by their interdependencies with the structural transformations of the global economy (as studied by IPE). At the same time, the changes within the growth models of large economies in this periphery (CPE) can have a major impact on global interdependencies (IPE). For example, the rise of China as a major player in world trade and investment (“China shock”) has had a substantial impact on growth models elsewhere in the periphery, via import penetration, direct investment, and export demand. This paper shows how these growth models shape (and are shaped through) international interdependencies by analyzing (1) the effects of global commodity cycles on the growth experience of several major exporters of primary resources, such as Brazil or Indonesia, during and after the recent commodity boom. (2) We further elaborate on the effects of global financial cycles on peripheral countries, particularly those pursuing debt-led growth models, such as South Africa or Turkey. (3) We finally point to the role of global production chains and foreign direct investment for FDI-led growth models of manufacturing exporters such as Thailand or Vietnam in South East Asia.
Topic:: Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Economic Growth, Commodities, Emerging Economies, and Growth Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

213. Politics, AI and the Future of the University

Author:: Tim Clement-Jones
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: In the latest in the ‪Mile End Institute's 'In Conversation’ series, we were joined by the former Lawyer and Liberal Democrat spokesperson on Science, Innovation and Technology, Tim Clement-Jones CBE. Lord Clement-Jones is a Liberal Democrat peer, an expert in AI and the digital economy and an educationalist. He joined the House of Lords in 1998 and is now one of the country’s leading authorities on the creative industries. He has been a key figure in legislative discussions of AI and emerging technologies, and published his book, Living with the Algorithm in 2024. Having just completed his final term as Chair of Queen Mary’s Council, Lord Clement-Jones was in conversation with Professor Elke Schwarz about his early life, his political career, his experience of university management and the challenge of AI.
Topic:: Education, Politics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, and Universities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

214. World Conference on Statelessness 2024 – Key Takeaways

Author:: Subin Mulmi and Jenna Biedscheid
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The Second World Conference on Statelessness was convened at Taylor’s University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 26 to 29 February 2024.1It was co-organised by the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), Nationality for All (NFA), Development of Human Resources for Rural Areas Malaysia (DHRRA), Family Frontiers (‘FF’) and supported by the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (SUHAKAM).The Conference was the biggest convening of the statelessness field to date, attended by 450 in-person participants and over 100 online participants from all over the world. Around 30% of the participants who responded to a voluntary survey identified themselves as persons with lived experience of statelessness.2This shows a significant increase from the first World Conference in 2019, where only 10% of participants had lived experience.3In contrast to the first Conference being held in The Hague, the venue moving to Malaysia is reflective of greater accessibility and representation, with the Asia Pacific holding the largest population of stateless persons in the world.4Over the course of three and a half days, the Conference featured plenary sessions, panel discussions, workshops and skill labs focusing on the three themes of ‘Solidarity, Knowledge and Change’. The Conference also featured the Immersive Arts and Culture Programmetitled‘Think of Others’,which was an integral part of the event.5This piece captures some of the key conversations that took place at the Conference and provides a reflective analysis from the perspective of two members of the organising team. Their analysis delves into broad takeaways that affect civil society and the statelessness ecosystem through the three themes of the Conference, with the purpose of targeting a diverse set of participants. The findings are based on the notes taken by the designated notetakers and the recorded videos of the plenary sessions.
Topic:: Development, Rural, Human Resources, Inclusion, Statelessness, and World Conference on Statelessness
Political Geography:: Global Focus

215. State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Governmental practices in protecting IP-intensive industries

Author:: Gatra Priyandita and Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Since 2022, an increasing number of governments have introduced new policies, legislation, regulations and standards to deal with the threat to their economies from cyber-enabled IP theft. Most prominently, in October 2023, the heads of the major security and intelligence agencies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US (also known as the ‘Five Eyes’) appeared together in public for the first time, in front of a Silicon Valley audience, and called out China as an ‘unprecedented threat’ to innovation across the world.1 That was followed up in October 2024 with a public campaign called ‘Secure Innovation’. There is, however, variation in how governments frame their responses. Countries such as the UK and Australia take a national-security approach with policy instruments that seek to monitor the flow of knowledge and innovation to and from specific countries (primarily China). Other countries, such as Malaysia and Finland, take a due-diligence risk approach with a focus on awareness building and providing incentives to organisations to do their due-diligence checks before engaging with foreign entities. Countries such as Japan and Singapore, by contrast, take an economic-security approach in which they focus on engaging and empowering at-risk industries proactively. This report is the third in a compendium of three. The first report, State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: tackling an invisible but persistent risk to prosperity, published in 2022, looked at the scale, scope and impact of state-sponsored cyber-espionage campaigns aimed at extracting trade secrets and sensitive business information. The second report, State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Assessing the preparedness of emerging economies to respond to cyber-enabled IP theft, looks at the extent to which agreed norms effectively constrain states from conducting economic cyber-espionage and also examines the varying levels of vulnerability experienced by selected major emerging economies. This third report complements those diagnoses by offering policymakers an action perspective based on good practices observed across the world. Various practices and examples have been selected, drawing from a multi-year capacity-building effort that included engagements in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Latin America and consultations with authorities in developed economies such as the US, Australia, Japan, Singapore and the Netherlands. Many of the practices covered in this report were presented at the Track 1 Dialogue on Good Governmental Practices that ASPI hosted during Singapore International Cyber Week 2023.
Topic:: Crime, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Cybersecurity, Business, and Espionage
Political Geography:: Global Focus

216. State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Assessing the preparedness of emerging economies to defend against cyber-enabled IP theft

Author:: Gatra Priyandita and Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Strategic competition is deepening existing tensions and mistrust between states and prompts nations to develop capabilities that they consider central to sovereign national power. Technological capabilities sit at the centre of this. It’s therefore not surprising that governments around the world are seeking technological advantage over their competitors and potential adversaries. In this context, safeguarding intellectual property (IP) has become necessary not just because it’s an essential asset for any modern economy—developed or emerging—but because it’s also increasingly underwriting national and regional security. Today, middle-income countries1 ‘World Bank country and lending groups’, World Bank, 2024, online. that are seeking to progress in the global value chain are home to vibrant knowledge-intensive sectors. Some of the world’s largest science and technology clusters are located in São Paulo and Bengaluru, for example.2 Other exemplars include the biochemical industry in India, information and communication technology (ICT) firms in Malaysia and petroleum processors in Brazil. In fact, countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Vietnam have emerged as increasingly major producers of knowledge and innovation.3 Perhaps reflecting that changing reality, it’s middle-income countries that are confronted by increasing attempts to deprive them of their economic crown jewels. In our report State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: tackling an invisible but persistent risk to prosperity, ASPI estimated that the number of state-sponsored cyber incidents affecting private entities in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Latin America and the Middle East increased from 40% in 2014 to nearly 60% in 2020.4 To be clear: economic espionage isn’t new. But it’s the growing scale and intensification of economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes—and as an integrated tool of statecraft—that is a cause for concern.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, Cybersecurity, Espionage, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

217. The End of an Era: The Decline of Neoliberalism and the Emerging Interregnum

Author:: Johannes Späth
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The era of neoliberal and unconditional globalization, once heralded as the ultimate phase of human history, is in slow but likely irreversible decline. The frameworks and assumptions that underpinned global integration for decades are eroding, leaving behind a fragmented landscape and an uncertain future. Periods of upheaval like this compel us to reconsider the structures that shape our lives. Central to these is the notion of political order. Historian Gary Gerstle, in the U.S. context, defines it as a set of dominant political ideas broadly shared across partisan lines. These ideas persist over significant periods of time and can only be challenged to a certain degree. Contrarian views may simultaneously still exist but remain on the fringes, unable to disrupt the mainstream consensus upheld by the political order. Historically, political orders collapse when crises expose their inability to adapt and adequately respond. These moments of systemic failure pave the way for new paradigms. The stagflation crisis of the 1970s—marked by high inflation and unemployment—marked the end of the New Deal order and its Keynesian economics. In its place emerged a once-radical fringe idea: neoliberalism, soon to become the new dominant order. The "neo" in neoliberalism can be confusing, as this set of ideas is closely aligned with classical liberalism (e.g., Adam Smith’s focus on free markets and limited government). It was labelled "neoliberalism" to distinguish its market-oriented approach from the interventionist liberalism of the mid-20th century, such as New Deal policies, which also identified as liberal.
Topic:: Globalization, History, Capitalism, Neoliberalism, and Borders
Political Geography:: Global Focus

218. Navigating a World on Edge: Why Teaching War and Peace is Essential amid Rising Global Tensions in 2025

Author:: Annika Scharnagl
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: 2025 brings with it a cascade of unresolved political crises and escalating global tensions. Notable events include the protracted war in Ukraine, which is nearing its third year, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, which has drawn in various neighboring states. Meanwhile, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria signals significant shifts in the Middle East, though the implications of this change remain uncertain. According to ACLED’s (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) December 2024 analysis, global conflict levels rose by 25% compared to the same period in 2023, nearly doubling since 2020. Researchers suggest that the unprecedented levels of violence recorded in late 2024 will likely continue into 2025 (Raleigh & Kishi, 2024). In their analysis for 2025, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) found that since they started their Preventative Priorities Survey in 2008, never have so many contingencies at the same time be rated with a high likelihood/impact than at the end of 2024 (Stares, 2025). The expert respondents to the CFR survey also expressed a level of anxiety that has never been higher than at the end of 2024, looking at 2025 (ibid). If we look at the Emergency Watchlist of the International Rescue Committee, they mention the top 10 humanitarian crises in the world, which also overlap with those mentioned in the ACLED report such as Israel/Palestine, Myanmar, Syria, and the Sahel region. Those grapple with (the aftermath of) war, terrorism, climate change, gang violence and related problems such as internal displacement, health crisis, food insecurity, sexual violence and ethnic cleansing, among others (International Rescue Committee, 2024). And while Donald Trump vowed during his campaign for reelection to fix some of those conflicts quickly, such as vowing to end the war between Russia and Ukraine “within one day” and to bring “peace” to the Middle East (Bateman, 2024), the complexities of these conflicts suggest that any resolution will likely leave a bittersweet aftertaste. An example of the complexity in both countries is the issue of rebuilding everything that was destroyed during the war and the financial burden this entails. Furthermore, no agreement will fully satisfy the partners to the agreement, creating a pretext for future escalations between the warring parties. In addition to those big plans on the agenda, in a news conference on 7th of January, Donald Trump shared his expansionist ideas of annexing Greenland, reclaiming the Panama Canal, and absorbing Canada—plans which might trigger even more conflicts in 2025 than were anticipated just one month prior (Smith & Lee, 2025). These global crises are no longer confined to international summits or policy debates; they permeate everyday conversations, also among younger generations exposed to unfiltered narratives on social media. Inevitably, schools have become critical spaces for discussing war and the hope for peace. The October 7th terror attack on Israel by Hamas, for example, has led to spikes in both Islamophobia and antisemitism in Western countries (Broekaert et al., 2024), further amplifying the need for balanced and informed dialogue in educational settings. Since 2025 will likely keep us on our toes concerning the development of conflicts all over the world, those conflicts and discussions will remain present within classrooms and during breaks while playing in the schoolyard. Therefore, the impact of global developments on classrooms cannot be negated and consequently increases the need for educators to address the realities of an interconnected and conflict-ridden world.
Topic:: Crisis Management, Armed Conflict, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

219. The Politics of Misinformation: Social Media, Polarization, and the Geopolitical Landscape in 2025

Author:: Ceren Çetinkaya
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: According to the Global Web Index, as of October 2024, 64% of the global population actively uses social media; they spend an average of 2 hours and 19 minutes daily on such platforms. (Chaffey, 2024). This digital transformation has reshaped various domains in our lives, most notably the political sphere. Social media platforms, particularly X (formerly known as Twitter), TikTok, and Facebook have become central hubs for political discourse. Their democratizing potential enables grassroots movements and empowers individuals to communicate with large audiences, bypassing traditional gatekeepers. However, this empowerment has come with significant trade-offs, including the proliferation of disinformation and misinformation, and the reinforcement of ideological echo chambers which contribute to the polarization of society. The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report identifies misinformation as the most critical challenge to political cohesion and societal trust, particularly due to its ability to fracture democratic institutions, in the next two years. As we enter 2025, X has shown its potential to become a platform for political discourse, especially for populist far-right movements, and has been accused of propagating misinformation. Recently, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that Meta would remove third-party fact-checkers in the US and replace them with a crowd-sourced moderating service like the “community notes” feature on the rival social media platform X, because “the fact-checkers are politically biased”. Given the previous effects of social media in conflicts such as Rohingya humanitarian crisis in 2018, the effect of changes in social media regulations and the big tech-politics axis remains uncertain in a year where the ongoing conflicts seem unlikely to end soon. This report examines the geopolitical implications of misinformation in 2025 and calls for greater global attention to the role of social media in conflict areas.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Social Media, Misinformation, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

220. Stimulating Clean Hydrogen Demand: The Current Landscape

Author:: Rachel Mural, Matt Floyd, Sebastian Berns, and Ai Takahashi
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Hydrogen is expected to play an important role in the global energy transition as a chemical feedstock and fuel; when produced with renewable energy, hydrogen offers a means of decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial processes and the heavy transportation sector.1 To support market growth, current hydrogen programs aim to expand clean2 (also called “green”) hydrogen production by providing substantial subsidies in the form of supply-side funding and tax incentives. In 2023, global public investments in clean hydrogen reached $308 billion, with the vast bulk of funding allocated to production-side support.3 While worldwide clean hydrogen production targets4 reached 27-35 megatons (Mt) in 2023, demand targets have stalled at just 14 Mt.5 This trend reflects regional asymmetries in production and demand uptake. Under current projections, demand for renewable hydrogen in Europe is expected to hit 8.5 Mt by 2030, far behind the region’s planned 20 Mt of supply.6 Similarly, although the passage of the United States’ (U.S.) Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022 spurred an explosion of announced clean hydrogen projects, project offtake has lagged behind policy ambition. Supply-side incentives alone are insufficient to build robust markets for clean hydrogen; therefore, stakeholders must investigate additional demand-side innovation policies to facilitate market growth and development. In the remainder of this brief, we summarize the hydrogen policy landscape in the United States and European Union (EU), concluding with an examination of the causes of demand-side stagnation in the clean hydrogen market.
Topic:: Environment, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Regulation, Public Policy, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: Global Focus, United States of America, and European Union

221. Harvard Project Releases Discussion Brief on Climate-change and Trade Policy

Author:: Michael A Mehling
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Michael Mehling explores relationships among industrial policy, trade, and efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Among his conclusions are that climate action is now tied to the rise of industrial policy; border carbon measures are seeing increased interest but are also controversial as tools of climate action; and, while trade and climate cooperation have evolved separately, they are increasingly intersecting.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Trade Policy, and Greenhouse Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

222. The many contending futures of UN peacekeeping

Author:: Corine van Emmerik and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This DIIS Working Paper examines how UN peacekeeping operations are being reimagined in an era of global uncertainty. Through analysis of key UN documents and interviews with officials and diplomats, the research reveals multiple competing visions for peacekeeping's future — from a return to core principles to modular approaches and even a dramatic downscaling of peacekeeping as we have known it since the turn of the millennium. As peacekeeping operations face diminished legitimacy, host state resistance, and a deadlocked Security Council, the study argues that peacekeeping's chronic challenges are inherently unsolvable and must be continuously navigated. The paper comes at a critical moment following the closure of the Mali mission, considerable challenges in the DRC, and ahead of the 2025 Peacekeeping Ministerial, with implications for the future of global conflict management in an increasingly multipolar world.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

223. 8 old and new challenges for UN peacekeeping

Author:: Peter Albrecht and Corine van Emmerik
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Recent reviews and calls from the ‘Pact for the Future’ to reshape the UN peacekeeping framework, underscore an urgent need for innovation and dialogue to ensure peacekeeping’s continued relevance. While peacekeeping’s core principles of impartiality, consent, and limited use of force remain essential for fostering trust and legitimacy, rethinking is also needed to address unresolved challenges like asymmetric warfare, regionalized conflicts, and external geopolitical influences. Denmark’s seat on the United Nations Security Council for 2025–2026 presents a crucial opportunity to shape the future of peacekeeping, particularly as adapting conflict responses aligns closely with Denmark’s key thematic priorities for its tenure. We recommend eight ways to address both enduring and emerging challenges.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Innovation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Global Focus

224. Beware of historical analogies

Author:: Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: When political leaders legitimise security policy decisions with a historical analogy (typically to World War II), the analyst and public opinion should be on the alert. This DIIS Working Paper refers to contributions from the academic literature on decision-makers' historical analogies. Crisis decisions by Anthony Eden, Margaret Thatcher, Joseph Stalin and John F. Kennedy illustrate the discussion, and implications for the discourse on the current Ukraine-conflict are drawn.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

225. Who counts as ‘local’ in conservation and biodiversity strategies?

Author:: Adam Moe Fejerskov and Alma Tjalve
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: What does it mean to work 'locally' in conservation, and how can practitioners navigate the complex power dynamics this entails? A new DIIS Working Paper explores the evolving landscape of inclusive conservation approaches, examining how concepts like community-based conservation, Indigenous-led stewardship, and critical localism interpret and operationalise 'the local'. As development partners intensify their conservation engagement globally, understanding these diverse frameworks and their implications for practice has become essential. The paper maps out how different conservation approaches conceptualise locality and community participation, from collaborative partnerships to full community control over resource management. Through analysing various models — including Community-Based Natural Resource Management, Integrated Conservation and Development Projects, and Indigenous-led conservation — the authors explore how each interprets empowerment, knowledge integration, and decision-making authority differently. The study concludes with practical principles for inclusive conservation programming, emphasising that working effectively with 'the local' requires careful attention to power dynamics, rights recognition, and the integration of multiple knowledge systems across scales.
Topic:: Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Conservation, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

226. Gendered tax burdens in contexts of high informality

Author:: Abel Gwaindepi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This study examines the intersection of taxation, gender, and informality. While both men and women work informally in low-income countries, women are concentrated in more precarious, low-paying segments than men — making them prone to heavier tax burdens, compounded by unpaid care work and limited social protection.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Tax Systems, Informal Economy, Gender, and Development Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

227. Of Two Minds: Sanctions as a Form of Accountability and the Dilemmas for Transitional Justice

Author:: Elena Naughton
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: This report provides an analysis of international economic sanctions from a transitional justice perspective. Sanctions are a policy tool primarily associated with issues of foreign policy, peace, and security, often deployed as a form of coercive diplomacy to induce a change in behavior or policy. In recent years, however, especially as sanctions have been increasingly targeted at those responsible for human rights violations, the potential for greater engagement with transitional justice has expanded. The report considers the role that sanctions may play in advancing or hindering justice goals such as accountability, redress, and prevention in response to massive and serious human rights violations. It suggests that sanctions may provide an alternative or complementary means of justice in contexts of impunity, including in societies where significant political transitions have not yet begun. Sanctions may also offer opportunities for victim participation, while also presenting risks for victims and human rights activists. The report gathers lessons learned to provide guidance and broach a discussion about whether and how international economic sanctions function in support of (1) transitional justice goals, by punishing perpetrators, recognizing victims and repairing the harms they have suffered, advancing the truth, and preventing a recurrence of violations; and (2) transitional justice processes, by documenting human rights violations and identifying those responsible, supporting trials and truth commissions, and funding reparations. The report also examines the challenges that sanctions pose to justice, related to both legitimacy and impact. These include selectivity in the choice of targets, negative humanitarian impact, sanction evasion and the empowerment of authoritarian and corrupt actors, limited tangible impact on targets, undermining justice processes and actors, lack of outreach, legal and practical challenges, and lack of coordination and coherence. It concludes by identifying areas where increased engagement between justice practitioners and sanctions authorities could take advantage of the synergies in their work.
Topic:: Sanctions, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Memory, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

228. The Capability Approach: Multidimensional Poverty, Global Justice, and Global South Perspectives

Author:: Anna Carolina Kähler de Moraes Barros
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The present work aims to analyse the capability approach, in the terms established by Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum, and its consequences in studying poverty. The theoretical assumptions articulated by these authors not only show the complexity of that multidimensional phenomenon but guide the contours of what should be considered essential for a dignified life. Thus, the capability approach presents itself as the basis of a global understanding of justice. However, such a generalising claim invariably ignores nuances and particularities not properly valued a priori. In this sense, it is necessary to reveal neglected structural aspects that are decisive for the perpetuation of poverty and inequalities in those places where they are more forceful. To this end, peripheral perspectives will be highlighted as an important tool in identifying the limits of the capability approach as the basis of a conception of global justice.
Topic:: Poverty, Capability, Human Rights, Justice, and Global South
Political Geography:: Global Focus

229. The Speed of Aid: Strategic Urgency in International Emergency Relief

Author:: Andreas Fuchs and Samuel Siewers
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Timely assistance is a precondition for effective emergency relief in the aftermath of natural disasters. This paper shows that donor countries take faster aid decisions if they have stronger strategic interests at stake. We analyze a trilateral panel (donor, donor, recipient) of daily humanitarian aid decisions of 43 donor countries following 516 fast-onset natural disasters between 2000 and 2022. Identification relies on daily variation in donor responses and a series of multidimensional fixed effects. Our analysis reveals a bandwagon effect as donors follow their peers' commitments. This is largely explained by trade competition: the more donors compete over export and import markets, the faster they react to each other. The results are driven by government-to-government aid and underscore the importance of recipient-specific lead donors, who are natural first movers. These findings suggest that commercial competition can distort emergency relief and highlight that strategic interests shape even ostensibly altruistic behavior in international humanitarian aid.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, United Nations, Natural Disasters, Trade, Donors, Competition, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

230. Hegemonic Globalization

Author:: Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization”, built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any two countries increases with the degree of alignment in these policies. Hegemons promote policy alignment and thereby facilitate deeper trade integration. A unipolar world, dominated by a single hegemon, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is particularly costly for the declining hegemon and its closest allies. To test the theory, we use international treaties as a proxy for alignment and compile a novel “Global Treaties Database”, covering 77,000 agreements signed between 1800 and 2020. Consistent with the theory, we find that hegemons account for a disproportionate share of global treaty activity and that treaty-signing is a leading indicator of increasing bilateral trade.
Topic:: Globalization, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Hegemony, Trade, Multipolarity, and Coercion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

231. Hegemony and International Alignment

Author:: Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, Christoph Trebesch, and Jiaxian Zhou Wu
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This article explores the interplay between economic hegemony and political alignment. Using theoretical and empirical insights from Broner et al. (2024), we posit that hegemonic states, such as the U.S., foster political alignment, which enhances globalization. We use UN voting data to proxy for international alignment and show that hegemons induce alignment. This data has shortcomings, however. UN voting only covers the post-WWII period, refers to a narrow set of issues, and displays little time variation. As for military alliances, they were not widely used before the mid-20th century. We propose an alternative measure of alignment based on international treaties.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, Hegemony, Multipolarity, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

232. Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights: Towards an Advanced International Binding Regulation?

Author:: Takis Vidalis
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: With the rapid development of AI applications in the most important areas of economic, political and social life, the regime for the protection of fundamental rights has been significantly affected. This reality gives rise to initiatives for new legislation at international, supranational and national level. At the level of international law in particular, this legislation currently focuses on the formulation of general principles and guidelines. What is lacking is more specific regulation in situations where the introduction of AI causes uncertainty as to the protection of specific rights, particularly where conflicts arise between them. This article attempts to formulate proposals for such a more specific regulation, based on widely acknowledged principles of international law. Given that technological development and its impact on today’s societies know no national limitations, the adoption of this ‘next step’ in international law may well determine the smooth adaptation of AI to the values of democratic societies.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

233. Ocean Rights – Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Jasper Mührel
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: The pressing environmental crises of the Anthropocene are inherently connected to ocean health. Yet, the oceans are currently in a critical state. The article explores the idea of giving rights to oceans as one way to enhance their legal protection. It draws on scholarship and practice regarding the existing legal rights of nature, and discusses the challenges and prospects of ocean rights. In doing so, the article raises and addresses three fundamental questions for the recognition of such rights: first, why oceans should hold their own rights in the first place; second, who, i.e. what exact entity or entities, shall hold ocean rights; and finally, how such rights could be implemented and represented and thus be given practical effect.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Law, Oceans and Seas, Anthropocene, and Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

234. Status Quo or Bold Adaptation? Reclaiming the Women, Peace and Security Agenda

Author:: Sophie Close and Siad Darwish
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: This report by the European Institute of Peace calls for a critical rethinking of the core principles behind the Women, Peace, and Security agenda to ensure its continued relevance and effectiveness in today’s rapidly shifting global context. The study lays out the five persistent barriers preventing women’s meaningful participation in conflict prevention and peace processes, it highlights core principles that could transform the WPS agenda and assesses 12 effective and promising practices that can be used to navigate these barriers. Based on these, the report suggests concrete actions for policymakers and practitioners to enhance women’s meaningful participation in peacebuilding and conflict resolution. This research is part of the Breaking Barriers, Making Peace project led by the European Institute of Peace with support from the German Federal Foreign Office. This 2-year project provides recommendations to policymakers and practitioners on how to address the persistent barriers to women’s meaningful participation in peace and political settlement processes.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Women, Peacemaking, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Sudan, Ethiopia, Myanmar, and Global Focus

235. Remind Me Again Why We Put Together a Neighborhood Party? Recommitting to the Objectives of Special Drawing Rights Issuance

Author:: Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Unfair Distribution at the Neighborhood Holiday Party Imagine it’s the holiday season, and your neighborhood decides it would be nice to hold an afternoon party where all the families can come together to celebrate. There’s good music, delicious food, fun and games, and time to bond as a community. A small team is organized as the neighborhood party committee. To show your commitment to the party, every household is asked to contribute a commitment fee. Conscious that not everybody has the same financial circumstances, households contribute according to their household size and income, along with their house’s equity level. As the party draws near, the committee announces that they will use the pooled funds to purchase the drinks. However, they announce a pot-luck style contribution for the food. A list of food requirements is distributed, and households sign up to bring their dishes, with households allowed to bring as much or as little as they are able to bring, as long as their contribution can feed at least one person. The day of the party, everyone is excited! It’s a full house as guests arrive with their contributions, and music is blasting through the venue. The MC takes the microphone and gets the party started. Everyone is excited, some people are dancing, drinks are being served, and everyone is mingling happily. The food station also opens, and the announcer reminds guests to scan the QR code on the wristband they were given upon arrival to use as the ticket to get their portioned food. Nothing more is said. As the line quickly forms, people get to the station, scan their wristbands, and are served their food. Some households walk up to the station: a family of four gets fifty plates of food, a family of eight gets two plates of food, a family of six gets ten plates of food, a family of two gets one plate of food. Everyone soon becomes perplexed. What is happening? “This is a potluck, don’t we just serve ourselves based on what is available, and what we like and want?” At the beginning, everyone is trying to keep the peace. But soon, a small boy breaks the ice as he wants ice cream and his family has only been allocated one burger and nothing else. He begins to cry and is evidently very upset. The mother is flustered by all the commotion and tries to plead with the servers to see if her son can get an ice cream. However, the server remains adamant and says no. The allocation is system-generated and no exceptions can be made at this stage. A few other people join the commotion and begin to demand answers as to why food is being allocated in the way it is. The committee chairperson comes to the microphone and seeks to clarify the food is allocated according to how much each household paid as commitment fee. So, households who paid more get a bigger allocation of food, and those who paid less get less. “This is ridiculous,” most think. “We came together to have a party, to enjoy ourselves as a community. We all agreed to bring food to share, why would the sharing now be based on our contributions?” This notion destroyed the very objective of why the party had been put together, which was to build a sense of community and oneness.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

236. Unlocking Reform Capacity

Author:: Thibault Camelli
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: What does the UN80 reform initiative reveal about the limits of United Nations (UN) reform, and how can member states, UN staff, and policymakers avoid ritualized repetition while unlocking actionable reform pathways? The 2025 UN80 initiative is the most wide-ranging internal reform plan launched by the UN in over a decade. However, while its initial set of proposals demonstrates real administrative intent (merging departments, relocating offices, and reducing senior staffing), they reflect a reactive posture centered on budgetary triage, not systemic renewal. UN80 responds to a liquidity crisis, but avoids a structural recalibration of its purpose, mandates, and priorities. The result is a cycle of administrative change without political transformation. It is reform without redesign. Although still exploratory, the UN80 initiative is already receiving pushback. Some observers highlight that it recycles long-standing instruments of managerial reform. Others regret that its mapping of mandate addresses implementation and not prioritization or coherence. The most frequent criticism, however, is that member state consultation has been limited, undermining co-ownership and amplifying concerns of proceduralism: member states urge efficiency but resist structural change, while the Secretariat prioritizes viability over vision. The danger is a performative reform that narrows possibilities, repeating familiar templates without confronting foundational questions. To break the cycle, reform must be reconnected to political purpose. This paper proposes 10 recommendations to shift from reactive reform to institutional stewardship and structured intergovernmental engagement. These recommendations build on existing institutional levers, procedural tools, and political strategies, requiring no new mandates but a willingness to realign tools with political direction. The UN80 initiative comes at a pivotal moment. In an increasingly fragmented global order and declining trust in multilateralism, the stakes of UN reform are no longer limited to internal effectiveness: they now shape the UN’s external legitimacy, operational relevance, and political credibility. If reform remains decoupled from political ambition and absorbed procedurally, it risks being yet another empty exercise with little structural impact. UN80 is an opportunity, but only if reform is reclaimed as a political act.
Topic:: United Nations, Reform, Budget, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

237. AI for Justice and Justice for AI: Why Access to Justice Enables Better AI Governance

Author:: Nate Edwards
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The rapid development of emerging technology and artificial intelligence (AI) offers opportunities to create a more equal, just and inclusive world, but only if governance systems move in concert with innovation. To leverage the positive potential of AI, the multilateral system needs to utilize the tools already at its disposal. These tools include the capacity to set normative frameworks, institutionalize universal values, and facilitate collective action among diverse stakeholders. In particular, years of research, policy frameworks, partnership development, and programming to advance the sustainable development agenda (Agenda 2030) could become an asset to maximize the positive potential of the AI revolution. These longstanding efforts will not only benefit from new technologies, but they also offer tributaries by which the positive potential of AI can flow. One such effort is the international movement to provide equal access to justice for all by reshaping the way we think about justice and promoting a people-centered approach to addressing actual legal needs (SDG16.3). A world where everyone has equal access to justice would naturally complement more equal and inclusive AI governance. In fact, when designing new frameworks to regulate emerging technology, policymakers must use an approach that mitigates power imbalances at the individual and institutional levels, undercutting the risks of elite capture through increased accessibility of technology and its use. At the global level, too often the multilateral system is one step behind the world’s next challenge, and ill-prepared to recover from misaligned incentives, power imbalances, and unfettered capture. Focusing on justice could help the system catch up. This analysis makes a two-pronged argument: Strong, well-designed legal systems, with the principle of equal access to justice for all at the center, could support a more balanced, inclusive, and equitable AI revolution, while increasing access to the benefits of technology to everyone. Therefore, the multilateral system should prioritize equal access to justice for all as a way to facilitate the positive potential of AI. Reciprocally, an inclusive and equitable AI revolution could increase equal access to justice for all.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

238. Who’s Telling the Story on Inequality?

Author:: Raquel Jesse
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: A look at how rising inequality has been reframed by anti-rights movements—and why reclaiming the narrative is essential to building a just future The past four decades have witnessed an unprecedented surge in wealth inequality and left us buffeted by one financial crisis after another. As we stand on the brink of yet another recession, a historic realignment in the global order, unfolding in real time, has made the world more unpredictable and transactional than ever. One consequence of this larger trend of instability has been the emergence of a ‘new’ wave of anti-rights leaders and movements in the aftermath of the 2007–2009 global financial crash. These movements defy easy categorization—often labeled as ‘populist right-wing,’ ‘autocratic,’ ‘fascist,’ ‘illiberal democracy,’ or ‘far-right’— but what they share is a common playbook; a willingness to offer answers to the widespread fear, anxiety, and grievances people are experiencing. Yes, they wield significant economic, social, and cultural capital, and despite often inconsistent messaging, they’re often the loudest (and often the only) voices addressing these concerns, albeit through distorted narratives of inequality, class struggle, and identity politics. They frame society as a struggle against a corrupt elite that is more invested in “woke” agendas than ordinary families. As a result, division and polarization have become the dominant response to rising precarity and distrust, and indeed, inequality. This new CIC perspectives piece explores the following themes: When Policy Fails: The Strategic Rise of (Not So) Reactionary Economics; The Vicious Cycle of Inequality and Division; Pattern Recognition: People Know When They Are Being Left Behind; When the System Really Works—But Only for the Few; Inequality by Design: The Policies that Transferred Wealth to the Top; The Crisis in Multilateralism Didn’t Start Today; Reclaiming the Fight Against Inequality.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Multilateralism, and Exclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

239. It Is Time for Delegations to Unite on Tackling Inequality: Addressing Structural Challenges in Financing for Development Negotiations

Author:: Fernando Marani and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: As the international community prepares for the upcoming Fourth Financing for Development (FfD4) conference in Sevilla, Spain, the issue of inequality continues to stand out. Since 2020, the global economic landscape has undergone profound shifts, marked by the growth of extreme wealth concentration, heightened geopolitical competition, and a crisis of multilateralism. In this context, inequality has not merely become a social concern but a structural impediment to sustainable development and global economic stability. Extreme wealth inequality is accelerating at an unprecedented rate. In just the past year, billionaires’ wealth grew by USD 1 trillion—three times faster than in previous years. That did not happen by accident; it is the outcome of policy choices that have systematically favored capital accumulation over equitable growth. The colonial legacy has continued as USD 30 million is extracted per hour from the Global South to the Global North, further entrenching economic disparities between countries. As a multifaceted issue that ranges from material inequalities at the domestic level to the unequal distribution of decision-making power in multilateral organizations, inequality shapes the very foundations of the global economy. Addressing these disparities is therefore not just a matter of fairness but a prerequisite for effective and inclusive solutions in any framework for Financing for Development.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Exclusion, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

240. Hashtag Feminism or the Illusion of Progress

Author:: Alice Viollet
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Gender equality has gone corporate. Empowerment is trending, and institutions are fluent in the language of inclusion—but when feminism becomes a marketing strategy, what happens to real power, policy, and progress? Behind the glossy branding lies a troubling truth: institutional inaction, stalled reforms, and a persistent refusal to confront structural inequality. Despite gender equality marketing and feel-good narratives being louder than ever, the situation for women has not seen significant improvement in the past 15 years. This is not genuine progress; this disconnect between visibility and substance is a form of genderwashing —a superficial promotion of women’s rights through marketing and virtue signaling without meaningful, long-term material changes in policies, workforce structures, or decision-making representation. Genderwashing follows the same rhetorical pattern as “greenwashing” or “whitewashing:” it describes the practice of promoting an image of support for gender equality—for instance through public relations (PR) campaigns, social media posts, or branding—without enacting meaningful structural change. Genderwashing is about optics over action; it occurs when companies, organizations, institutions or public figures express support for women’s rights or gender equality, particularly on high-profile occasions such as International Women’s Day, without implementing real, substantive changes to correct gender imbalances, not even within their own structures.
Topic:: Women, Media, Inequality, Leadership, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

241. Easier Said than Done: Overcoming Coherence Challenges Within the United Nations System

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Personnel and budgetary policies and procedures can seem esoteric at best and incidental to the lofty work of the United Nations (UN), even to seasoned UN watchers. These issues, however, are not merely technical matters within the purview of administrative officers or Fifth Committee delegates. The normative and operational functioning of the United Nations is a function of its personnel and budgets, but not only as a matter of adequate resourcing. In fact, the policies and practices of the UN around the management of its personnel and budgets also have an outsized and underappreciated effect, including on whether mandates are implemented in a coherent and effective manner. This newest policy brief on overcoming coherence challenges within the UN from Eugene Chen, senior fellow, provides a primer for: Efforts to enhance UN coherence. Administrative obstacles to coherence. Observations and recommendations for UN bureaucratic leadership and member states.
Topic:: United Nations, Reform, Budget, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

242. The Process for Selecting the Secretary General of the United Nations

Author:: Mark Simonoff and Thibault Camelli
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: In 2026, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) will engage in a process to select the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. The current Secretary-General, António Guterres, will complete his second five-year term at the end of 2026. This paper offers a historical overview of the evolution of the process for selecting and appointing the UN Secretary-General over time. This process consolidated decades of practices and rules, and was recently refined by the General Assembly in its resolution 79/3271 adopted on September 5, 2025. In short, the process has evolved from a non-transparent, closed-door exercise, almost exclusively dominated by the Security Council, to a more transparent and inclusive process involving more active and engaged participation from the General Assembly. This policy brief, originally published in July 2025, has been updated as of October 2025 to unpack this process.
Topic:: United Nations, UN Security Council, and Secretary General
Political Geography:: Global Focus

243. Geopolitical Influence & Peace

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This report, Geopolitical Influence & Peace, explores the shifting dynamics of global power, drawing comparisons to the Cold War while underscoring the unique challenges of today's interconnected and multipolar world. Geopolitical risks today exceed levels seen during the Cold War, driven by heightened military spending, stalled efforts at nuclear disarmament, and a diminished role for multilateral institutions like the United Nations. At the same time, global power is being redistributed, with emerging middle powers reshaping the landscape through strategic investments and influence-building initiatives. These shifts challenge the dominance of traditional Western powers, creating both opportunities and vulnerabilities in global governance. Economic stagnation further complicates the picture, as developing nations grapple with mounting debt burdens that divert critical resources away from health, education, and infrastructure. Unlike the bipolar structure that prevailed in most of the 20th-century Cold War, the current global landscape is shaped by technological dominance, economic interdependence, and influence competition across emerging regions such as Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. While China's rise is clear, emerging regional powers, such as Brazil, Türkiye, United Arab Emirates, South Africa and Indonesia are also seeking to shape regional and global dynamics. The proliferation of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and 5G infrastructure has transformed power dynamics, with states vying to secure strategic dominance in these areas. Meanwhile, economic interdependence, once seen as a stabilising force, is increasingly weaponised, as seen in trade wars, sanctions, and the deliberate decoupling of supply chains in critical industries. These dynamics are exacerbated by the intensification of proxy conflicts, hybrid warfare tactics, and disinformation campaigns that further destabilise global alliances and erode trust among nations. In exploring the current dynamics of global power, the report addresses the challenges of a multipolar world and the implications for the developing world. Developing countries can face economic disruptions, diminished development funding, and governance challenges due to shifts in geopolitics of the major powers. During the Cold War, developing countries became arenas for proxy wars, economic exploitation, and political interference, exacerbating instability, poverty, and underdevelopment. Today, as global power struggles intensify, nations in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia risk becoming similarly entangled, facing increased economic pressures, disrupted trade partnerships, and reduced access to critical investments. Debt servicing costs now outweigh investments in essential services for many developing countries, undermining their capacity for sustainable growth. Moreover, the plateauing of global trade integration limits economic opportunities, further constraining development pathways for emerging economies. Competition for influence among powerful nations may undermine local governance and development priorities, diverting attention from urgent challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, and peacebuilding. A nuanced understanding of these dynamics is crucial to ensure that developing countries are supported in long-term stability and development.
Topic:: Cold War, Development, Economics, Geopolitics, Peace, Strategic Competition, Multipolarity, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

244. Electoral Management Body Leadership Transitions

Author:: Staffan Darnolf and Rushdi Nackerdien
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Executive leadership transitions within Election Management Bodies (EMBs) can profoundly impact the credibility and effectiveness of electoral processes. Whether planned or unexpected, leadership changes at the highest level can disrupt institutional continuity, unsettle operational readiness, and undermine public trust. In 2024, India offered a striking example of this dual challenge: just weeks before its general elections,1 the resignation of Election Commissioner occurred just after the planned retirement of another commissioner, leaving only the Chief Electoral Commissioner in place to oversee a complex national vote. 2 This combination of both a foreseeable and a sudden departure placed the EMB in a precarious position at a critical moment.3 Similar risks have emerged in other contexts. In 2018, Lesotho's Independent Electoral Commission saw the dismissal of all three commissioners amid allegations of misconduct, requiring swift intervention to restore institutional legitimacy. That same year in Kenya, three commissioners from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) resigned abruptly due to internal disputes, leaving the body weakened ahead of key electoral processes. In contrast, Australia’s 2024 transition was marked by the orderly retirement of long-serving Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers, whose departure was announced months in advance, allowing for a planned succession. These varied cases illustrate that without dedicated and well-prepared executive transition strategies, EMBs risk not only internal instability but also the broader integrity of the democratic processes they are mandated to protect. This White Paper is a first effort to outline how EMBs can learn from the experiences of their peers when it comes to improving their executive leadership transition process. To date, much of the EMB leadershiprelated research has focused on the appointment process for commissioners and how the process can impact the EMB’s independence, while very limited attention has been paid to executive leadership transitions. Effective transitions contribute significantly to the success of new executives and the overall integrity of the electoral process. This White Paper makes the case that by ensuring that transitions are well-planned, commissioners are better positioned to swiftly and competently take the reins of the EMB and thereby maintain high levels of trust and confidence among stakeholders. This, in turn, reinforces the credibility of elections and the democratic process. Whether the transition is foreseen well in advance or sudden and unexpected, a structured and proactive approach can help EMBs navigate these changes smoothly, ensuring that they continue to uphold their mandate effectively and without jeopardizing public trust.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

245. Understanding Young People’s Political and Civic Engagement as a Counter to Democratic Backsliding

Author:: Sarah Timreck and Cassandra Emmons
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: Incorporating young people’s voices into political and civic decision-making is fundamentally important in an era marked by democratic declines and rising authoritarianism around the globe1. A large cohort of motivated and engaged young people who participate in efforts to build communal trust, generate social cohesion, and promote political inclusion of diverse populations could help tip the scales in favor of democracy. This report seeks to address the efforts needed to engage young people to support democratic resilience by answering the following questions from the IFES 2023-2026 Learning Agenda: What types of informal civic engagement can lead to greater or more formal political and civic engagement among youth? How can these types of engagement be harnessed to fight against authoritarianism? This research and its findings and recommendations are intended for a broad audience. Answers to the questions will be useful for democracy and governance practitioners, donors, and policymakers, as well as others who engage with young people across the development and education sectors. As explored throughout the report, individuals and groups engage in the political and civic life of their communities in many ways. To start, we need to understand this nuance. In this report, we classify activities based on two dimensions: goal, meaning whether an individual endeavors to influence political or civic outcomes, and procedure, capturing whether an engagement effort is formal or nonformal. Activities fall into four main categories along the two dimensions: formal political engagement (voting, joining a political party); formal civic engagement (taking a civic education course in school, participating in a club or association); nonformal political engagement (attending a protest, following political leaders on social media); and nonformal civic engagement (engaging with peers or community members on social issues of importance).
Topic:: Politics, Youth, Resilience, Civic Engagement, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

246. Towards a New Development Theory for the Global South

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: As progressive governments take office in the Global South, now more than ever there is a burning need for a new development theory that can fulfil the Promethean aspirations of the darker nations.
Topic:: Development, Politics, Global South, Modernization, Progressivism, and Marxism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

247. Imperialist War and Feminist Resistance in the Global South

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Women creatively resist the impact of unilateral coercive measures (UCMs), a form of hyper-imperialist hybrid warfare that reinforces patriarchy and other forms of social discrimination.
Topic:: Imperialism, Women, Global South, Discrimination, Feminism, Patriarchy, Warfare, and Unilateral Coercive Measures (UCMs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

248. How the World Looks from Tricontinental

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In July 2015, social and political movements gathered for the Second Dilemmas of Humanity Conference and set in motion what would become Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. A decade later, we take stock of our view of the world and what lies ahead.
Topic:: Economics, Imperialism, and Global South
Political Geography:: Global Focus

249. NATO: The Most Dangerous Organisation on Earth

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is the only real military bloc in the world – one whose mandate and ambitions stretch far beyond the North Atlantic and, in fact, constitute the greatest threat to world peace.
Topic:: NATO, Armed Forces, Global South, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

250. The Environmental Crisis Is a Capitalist Crisis

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: One of humanity’s greatest challenges today is the environmental crisis, which threatens our very existence. Our latest dossier explores its class character, showing that the climate catastrophe is a product of capitalism’s relentless drive for accumulation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Capitalism, and Class
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS