Political Geography: Global Focus

401. Engaging Local Communities for More Effective Climate Mobility Programming

Author:: Lawrence Huang and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Climate change does not affect all communities the same way. Floods in one location can cause massive, long-term displacement and even permanent relocation, while they might only trigger short-term evacuations elsewhere. This depends to a significant extent on how vulnerable communities are to begin with and the resources they have to cope and adapt. And because the impacts of climate change on human mobility are highly localized, the solutions need to be as well. In this context, localization means designing solutions to prevent displacement and support safe migration in ways that account for a specific community’s ability to recover, rebuild, and adapt, as well as its aspirations and priorities. Local stakeholders—including municipal authorities and local nongovernmental organizations—have a key role to play in this space, often alongside international and national actors, given their first-hand grasp of local needs and dynamics. This issue brief explores the importance of localization in climate migration solutions, as well as common barriers that have kept local actors from taking on greater roles. It also offers recommendations for turning localization from a rhetorical commitment into practical action.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Migration, Localization, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:: Global Focus

402. Health responses during COVID-19

Author:: Neha Singh, Kimberley Popple, and James Smith
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic presented a grave global health challenge, both in terms of scale and severity. The novelty of the virus and the widespread economic impacts of efforts to contain it created an urgent global need to understand the virus, issue accurate guidance and develop effective prevention and treatment. As the pandemic progressed, many contexts already affected by humanitarian crises faced a new health threat, further compounded by the pandemic’s deleterious impact on socioeconomic indicators, food security and essential services. Many other countries, not previously considered as affected by humanitarian crises, had to reorientate to crisis response given the extent of the threat posed by COVID-19. Both the anticipated and realised impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic placed immense pressure on healthcare systems worldwide to both prevent and treat COVID-19 cases – something that has often required complex interventions – while simultaneously maintaining essential health services. As such, policymakers and healthcare workers were pressed to make changes to systems and practices to respond to the direct threat posed by COVID-19, and the indirect impact of COVID-19 response measures on non-COVID-19 health needs. Much of the available COVID-19 guidance primarily focused on higher-income countries, many of which became the early epicentres of the pandemic, and thus far has not necessarily been as relevant or applicable to humanitarian settings where living and working conditions, as well as the wider socio-cultural environment, are very different, and where local health systems may already be weakened by existing humanitarian crises and other challenges. Furthermore, where guidance has been developed for humanitarian settings (Interagency Standing Committee [IASC], 2020; Ramalingam, 2020), the diversity of countries and contexts that fall under such categorisation is such that any guidance produced is not able – nor intended – to be context specific. As such, humanitarian organisations at the country level have initiated adaptive interventions to respond to the specific challenges they have experienced (Lancet, 2020). These adaptations often demonstrate a complex process whereby organisations acknowledge guidance is available to support interventions, but that they must nonetheless adapt or innovate in response to contextual realities (Odlum et al., 2021).
Topic:: Health, COVID-19, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Global Focus

403. The humanitarian response to COVID-19: Lessons for future pandemics and global crises

Author:: Emmeline Kerkvliet, Samir Hafiz, and Susanna Morrison-Metois
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic was unparalleled in scope and scale, and the response tested the humanitarian system in new and unforeseen ways. While funding was not able to keep pace with the massive rise in global needs, the system proved to be extraordinarily resilient. However, neither the crisis itself nor the response to it should be understood as exceptional. Despite its many achievements and adaptations, the humanitarian response walked a well-trodden path. Humanitarian actors often defaulted to their usual, top-down ways of working, revealing perennial problems in the current formal international humanitarian system. Evaluations emphasise that the response was carried out under significant constraints – unpredictability, scarcity of information and limited humanitarian access – but caution should be exercised against interpreting these constraints as justifications for the shortcomings of the response. There were striking parallels between the operating environment of COVID-19 and other crises, which are not new to humanitarians. In framing the pandemic as an exceptional crisis, there is a real risk of diminishing the importance of learning and the need for transformative change within the sector. ALNAP 's analysis suggests that there is much to be learned – and further researched – from the response to COVID-19, which will be useful in responding to future public health emergencies, as well as other major crises. This evaluation synthesis focuses on nine key areas of the humanitarian system's response to the pandemic: sense-making and resource mobilization; needs prioritization and inclusion of the most vulnerable; adaptation of the humanitarian system; meeting the needs; localization; community engagement; coordination and collaboration with partners; utilization of learning from the Ebola and other public health responses; and evidence gaps and areas for further research. Download main report file
Topic:: Crisis Management, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Monitoring, Humanitarian Assistance, and Evaluation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

404. Harnessing evidence and learning for people-centred humanitarian action

Author:: Veronique Barbelet, Josie Flint, Emmeline Kerkvliet, and Sara Philips
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: Reforms have sought to shift the framing of humanitarian action towards a quality and equity agenda focused on the view and experiences of people affected by crisis. Reforms linked to the localisation, accountability to affected people (AAP) and inclusion agendas point to the same general vision – a humanitarian aid architecture and system that enables approaches tailored to context and individuals, including through greater leadership and participation of local actors and communities. This report synthesises the available evidence on existing approaches to people-centred humanitarian action and their outcomes, and it reviews good practices. It identifies key gaps on localisation, AAP and inclusion, explores the inter linkages between them, and reflects on the evidence needed by donors, practitioners and researchers to reform humanitarian practice and policy.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Reform, Accountability, Inclusion, and Localization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

405. Balancing the Legitimate Interests of States

Author:: Mazhar Ali Khan
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: This study explores the principles of domestic criminal jurisdiction under international law, focusing on universal jurisdiction. It analyzes the contentious nature of universal jurisdiction, particularly its application by international judicial organs post-human rights and international criminal law developments. The research scrutinizes the Rome Statute's provisions, debating whether it implicitly or explicitly endorses universal jurisdiction over non-party state nationals. It also examines the complementarity principle within the Statute, arguing that it safeguards state interests by prioritizing national jurisdiction. The findings affirm universal jurisdiction's recognition under international law and its potential activation under the Rome Statute, while complementarity balances states' interests against the jurisdiction of international courts.
Topic:: International Law, International Criminal Court (ICC), Rome Statute, Jurisdiction, Universal Jurisdiction, and Complementarism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

406. Spring 2024 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:: Joseph Johnson, Alan McPherson, and Andrew Santora
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Strategic Visions
Institution:: Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:: Contents News from the Director……… 2 Note from the Davis Fellow…. 7 News from the Community…. 8 Research Reports….. 11 Checking in with the CENFAD Emerging Scholar…. 13 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Michael Brenes……. 15 Dr. Stephanie Freeman…… 20 Retrospective: The “All Roads Lead to Gettysburg Conference”….. 26 Book Reviews The Third Reich’s Elite Schools: A History of the Napolas by Helen Roche, reviewed by Andrew Santora …………………….. 30
Topic:: History, Book Review, Higher Education, Interview, and Use of Force
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

407. Climate Change and Migration

Author:: Emmanuella Doussis and Maria Eleni Pantazi Psatha
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The nexus between climate change and migration is not newly emerged; yet it has recently started gaining territory in political agendas. It constitutes a complex phenomenon which involves various fields, making it harder to collect accurate and up-to-date data. Climate migration can take different forms-internal or cross-border, temporary or permanent- and is usually affected by a combination of factors. Therefore, this policy paper advocates for addressing climate migration in relation to existing agendas and frameworks, and not as a stand-alone issue. It also promotes the conceptualisation of climate migration by focusing on how we talk about people who migrate because of climate change and not what we call them. The last section provides a set of policy recommendations, advocating for tailor-made solutions based on regional and national needs and vulnerabilities. Overall, the policy paper underscores the importance of addressing the complexity of climate migration and calls for concerted policy efforts. · Climate change is one of the factors among others that lead to human mobility. · Climate migration is a multicausal and multi-form phenomenon. · Climate migration should not be perceived as a stand-alone issue for which an entirely novel legal and political framework should be adopted. Au contraire, it needs to be addressed in relation with other agendas and existing areas of cooperation. · The focus should be placed on how we talk about people moving for climatic reasons and not what we call them. · Attention should be paid to internal and inter-regional displacement. · One-size-fits-all policy responses are unrealistic; thus, tailor-made solutions should be promoted. · Mitigation policies can be developed through existing frameworks. · Reinforcement of National Adaptation Plans is of significant importance. · Migration can be seen as an adaptation strategy. · Promotion of humanitarian visas as well as bilateral free movement agreements are some policies that need to be reinforced.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Mobility, Freedom of Movement, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:: Global Focus

408. Developing a Framework for Collective Data Rights

Author:: Jeni Tennison
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Are collective data rights really necessary? Or, do people and communities already have sufficient rights to address harms through equality, public administration or consumer law? Might collective data rights even be harmful by undermining individual data rights or creating unjust collectivities? If we did have collective data rights, what should they look like? And how could they be introduced into legislation? Data protection law and policy are founded on the notion of individual notice and consent, originating from the handling of personal data gathered for medical and scientific research. However, recent work on data governance has highlighted shortcomings with the notice-and-consent approach, especially in an age of big data and artificial intelligence. This special reports considers the need for collective data rights by examining legal remedies currently available in the United Kingdom in three scenarios where the people affected by algorithmic decision making are not data subjects and therefore do not have individual data protection rights.
Topic:: Privacy, Data Governance, Consent, and Digital Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

409. Scenarios of Evolving Global Order

Author:: Paul Samson, S. Yash Kalash, Nikolina Zivkovic, Tracey Forrest, and Bessma Momani
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The global order is under strain, propelled by the complex interplay of numerous trends and impacts. Converging factors are redefining the contours of the international system, necessitating significant adaptation by states. While the forces for change are evident, the trajectory of the new order remains highly uncertain. This CIGI special report seeks to fill a gap between the analysis of current trends and mapping of potential futures by outlining five possible scenarios for an evolving global order. These five scenarios represent a spectrum from the most modest plausible change (reform of the current system) to the most radical (transformation of the whole system due to a global shock). It is hoped that the report’s analysis will stimulate critical thinking and discussion and will help equip policy makers with the foresight necessary to navigate an uncertain future.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Geopolitics, International Order, and Multilateral Institutions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

410. Freedom of Thought: Reviving and Protecting a Forgotten Human Right

Author:: Susie Alegre and Aaron Shull
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Freedom of thought is an essential plank of the international human rights framework and an inviolable freedom. It has been described by legal experts as not only the foundation of democratic society and the basis and origin of all other rights but also as a “forgotten right” that has languished unused in international human rights law for decades. However, the importance of this right and the need to protect it are becoming more urgent in the digital world. To illustrate the risks emerging technologies present to freedom of thought, Susie Alegre and Aaron Shull outline four contemporary use cases — ranging from the least invasive (data-driven persuasive technologies) to the most invasive (brain-computer interfaces) — that raise many questions: Where does the line fall between our inner thoughts and our expression of those thoughts? What does “consent” mean with respect to technologies that interface with the mind? How can inferences about our inner lives be used against us? And, critically, where is the boundary between lawful influence and unlawful manipulation of our thoughts? Over the past 10 years, recognition has been growing that the right to freedom of thought is key to our future relationship with technology. Alegre and Shull write that an authoritative statement made at the international level on the scope of the right to freedom of thought and its relationship to technology would assist domestic and regional courts, regulators and policy makers grappling with these deeply complex policy areas.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Freedom of Thought
Political Geography:: Global Focus

411. How Authoritarian Value Systems Undermine Global AI Governance

Author:: Sabhanaz Rashid Diya
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Digital authoritarianism is often considered an issue limited to a few illiberal regimes. However, neo-liberal AI technologies can be equally pervasive. It is crucial to treat authoritarianism as a values complex that permeates both autocratic and liberal societies. Authoritarian values may manifest through transplant of legal practices between states, autocratic homogenization through multilateral mechanisms, and exploitation of geopolitical tensions to adopt protectionist policies. These approaches exacerbate public polarization around AI governance by creating a false dichotomy between innovation and sovereignty on the one hand, and fundamental rights on the other, chipping away at institutional trust. Sabhanaz Rashid Diya writes that policy solutions to mitigate the erosion of democratic norms and public trust should focus on international mechanisms central to AI governance. These mechanisms need to introduce procedural safeguards that ensure transparency and accountability through equitable multi-stakeholder processes. Additionally, they should encourage regulatory diversity tailored to sociopolitical contexts and aligned with international human rights principles.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Transparency, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

412. The Accountability Surface of Militaries Using Automated Technologies

Author:: Arthur Holland Michel
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: There are many people, decisions and technologies involved in the process leading to the use of force in military operations. Each of these touch points is a locus for applying — or failing to apply — accountability when things go wrong. The “accountability surface” is a new term of art to characterize the degree to which humans involved in the use of force can be held accountable for undue harm in warfare. As a metaphor, the accountability surface insists upon a crucial question regarding the use of military autonomous and automating technologies: Will the use of this technology expand or contract the degree to which anyone in the organization will be held accountable for any harms resulting from any process in which it plays a role? Automating technologies have the potential to significantly diminish the accountability surface of militaries that use them.
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Military
Political Geography:: Global Focus

413. Toward a Model Code for Digital Safety

Author:: Michel Girard
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Although standards are being published to address privacy, cybersecurity and high-risk artificial intelligence, more needs to be done to address digital harms. Stakeholders are playing catch-up with a tsunami of new, unproven digital technologies, and standards are developed after the fact. One approach gaining traction is the development of a model code for digital safety. This code would define a set of core values that should be embedded in new digital technologies in order to prevent harms from occurring in the first place. This would replicate what stakeholders have been doing for close to 100 years to ensure the safety of the built environment.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Safety
Political Geography:: Global Focus

414. Data Disquiet: Concerns about the Governance of Data for Generative AI

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The growing popularity of large language models (LLMs) has raised concerns about their accuracy. These chatbots can be used to provide information, but it may be tainted by errors or made-up or false information (hallucinations) caused by problematic data sets or incorrect assumptions made by the model. The questionable results produced by chatbots has led to growing disquiet among users, developers and policy makers. The author argues that policy makers need to develop a systemic approach to address these concerns. The current piecemeal approach does not reflect the complexity of LLMs or the magnitude of the data upon which they are based, therefore, the author recommends incentivizing greater transparency and accountability around data-set development.
Topic:: Governance, Artificial Intelligence, Data Governance, Large Language Models (LLMs), and Generative Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

415. Into Uncharted Waters: Trade Secrets Law in the AI Era

Author:: Burcu Kilic
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Artificial intelligence (AI) has many beneficial applications that can improve quality of life, but accountability and transparency can be elusive when problems arise. This paper looks at the tools, systems and measures needed to ensure that when AI systems do more harm than good, their administrators are held accountable. Trade secrets law protects the source code, algorithms and data sets upon which AI systems are built, but they also prevent those harmed by these systems from getting answers. Requests for disclosure, data sharing and due process are being denied in the name of trade secrets protection. Complicating the matter is that trade secrets are treated differently in various jurisdictions.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Trade Secrets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

416. Explainable AI Policy: It Is Time to Challenge Post Hoc Explanations

Author:: Mardi Witzel, Gaston H. Gonnet, and Tom Snider
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The focus of this paper is on policy guidance around explainable artificial intelligence (AI) or the ability to understand how AI models arrive at their outcomes. Explainability matters in human terms because it facilitates including an individual’s “right to explanation” and it also plays a role in enabling technical evaluation of AI systems. The paper begins with an examination of the meaning of explainability, concluding that the constellation of related terms serves to frustrate and confuse policy initiatives. Following a brief review of contemporary policy guidance, it argues that there is a need for greater clarity and context-specific guidance, highlighting the need to distinguish between ante hoc and post hoc explainability, especially in high-risk, high-impact contexts. The question of whether post hoc or ante hoc methods have been employed is a fundamental and often-overlooked question in policy. The paper argues that the question of which method should be employed in a given context, along with the requirement for human-level understanding, is a key challenge that policy makers need to address. A taxonomy for how explainability can be operationalized in AI policy is proposed and a series of recommendations is set forth.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

417. International Norms Development and AI in the Military Domain

Author:: Tim Sweijs and Sofia Romansky
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in military applications has changed the way countries engage in war and in times of peace. With so many potential effects of military AI applications, both positive and negative, there is growing demand for international norms to govern their responsible use based on ethical and legal principles. While some argue that current international and human rights laws are sufficient, this paper makes the case for expanding norms to encompass the rapid growth of military AI use while looking at the challenges facing international norms development, current initiatives, and strengths and weaknesses in the normative landscape.
Topic:: Human Rights, National Security, Artificial Intelligence, and Military
Political Geography:: Global Focus

418. Exploring the role of international arms transfers in the non-market environment for international businesses across developing countries under authoritarian regimes.

Author:: Yoel Gonzalez-Bravo
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This article is aimed at providing an analytical framework for Multinational Corporations (MNCs) to exploit arms transfer deals as an alternative strategic tool for the protection of their investments against risks on their properties rights in developing countries with relatively weaker protective legal frameworks as well as under authoritarian regimes that mostly rely on the use of firepower for their survival. For this purpose, a literature review and a further analysis through the use of the Wilson-Lowi Matrix and game theory based on the previous review was conducted to explore how MNCs can hedge their exposure to expropriation risks in these countries. The analysis shows how MNCs should impact these survival probabilities by engaging with providers of defence goods and services, governments, armed forces and other players in the non-market context involved in the competition for the control of the State in these countries.
Topic:: Development, Authoritarianism, Arms Trade, and International Business
Political Geography:: Global Focus

419. Warlord-Islamist Competition: A Comparison of Support Structures

Author:: Hamza Deniz Kobus
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Warlord armies and Islamist groups are two types of violent non-state actors that frequently compete against each other in situations of internal conflict. This article strives to compare these actor types with regards to their internal and external sources of support. Examination of the consistent conflicts in Somalia and Afghanistan suggests that different support structures assist the armed groups with various resources for divergent reasons. The most salient pattern identifiable in the case studies indicates that local populations tend to support Islamist groups due to shared religious identities and desires for lasting governance. The non-ideological and pragmatic orientation of warlords on the other hand seems to attract backing primarily by international actors seeking influence in internal conflicts. While further research has to corroborate the findings, they indicate possible implications for military interventions in situations that are shaped by warlord-Islamist competition.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Governance, Islamism, Armed Conflict, Competition, and Warlords
Political Geography:: Global Focus

420. New Approaches and Challenges Regarding Trade, Climate Action, and the WTO

Author:: Sunayana Sasmal
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The report examines the intricate relationship between climate change and international trade, emphasizing the necessity for global cooperation to tackle the climate crisis in a sustainable and equitable manner. Climate change poses a significant global challenge, affecting economic, social, and political aspects of life worldwide. While effective resolution requires international cooperation, achieving so is complex due to inadequate action, the distribution of the burdens of regulatory costs, and the potential of free riding—a situation reminiscent of the tragedy of the commons. Efforts for cooperation in the environmental field have included multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), from the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, political discord has hindered progress, particularly in linking climate action with trade governance within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Tensions between the developed and the less developed regarding historical contributions to climate change and how such historical contributions qualify current levels of responsibility, inadequate climate finance despite repeated promises, and the technology divide, further complicate this issue. Limited technology transfers and the lack of enforceability of related commitments have led to growing resentment and distrust among WTO members, amid the rising number of climate-related trade measures.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

421. Breaking Free: Strategies for Governments on Terminating Investment Treaties and Removing ISDS Provisions

Author:: Ladan Mehranvar and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: As we enter the second half of 2024, the need for a fundamental transformation of the global investment and policy landscape is indisputable. Only ambitious, truly systemic changes can achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of ending extreme poverty, increasing social inclusion, reducing inequality, promoting the environmental sustainability of food systems, ecosystems, and biodiversity, and urgently shifting towards sustainable energy sources. The transition towards a more sustainable and equitable legal and economic global governance system involves moving away from industries and practices that harm the environment, such as fossil fuel extraction and use, and towards renewable energy sources. It also involves fostering sustainable practices that respect and uphold the rights, needs, and priorities of individuals, local communities, and Indigenous Peoples,1 as well as respecting governments’ sovereign right to regulate in the public interest. Progress, unfortunately, often clashes with a deeply entrenched status quo. One significant obstacle facing international investment law and policymakers is the investment treaty regime, which consists primarily of a network of bilateral investment treaties (BITs), multilateral investment treaties (MITs), and investment chapters in free trade agreements (FTAs). These international investment agreements (IIAs or investment treaties) dictate the treatment of foreign investment and foreign investors by host States. They contain a broad set of substantive provisions safeguarding investors and their investments, along with a powerful investor-State dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanism that allows foreign investors to seek recourse through international arbitration in order to enforce treaty obligations. Many concerns about IIAs and the ISDS mechanism stem from the extensive substantive and procedural privileges granted to foreign investors. The ISDS mechanism, which is also found in national investment laws and increasingly in investor-State contracts, allows foreign investors to challenge legitimate regulatory measures taken by governments to achieve more equitable economic growth, address the climate crisis, respond to a global pandemic, or otherwise serve the public interest, if those measures negatively impact the investor’s bottom line.
Topic:: Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Reform, Multilateralism, and Investment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

422. Government Procurement, Financial Services, and Environment: Linkages and Implications for the EU and Brazil

Author:: Adeet Dobhal and Lucas Moreira Jimenez
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The relationship between trade agreements and the environment is increasingly a priority for policymakers and civil society today. However, some of the disciplines covered by modern trade agreements have not received enough attention when it comes to their potential impact on the environment. Financial services and government procurement are two such areas, even though they are increasingly consequential topics for international trade policy and negotiations. This blind spot merits greater consideration as the connections definitely exist: the regulation of government procurement and financial services can have positive or negative implications for environmental outcomes on the ground, which makes understanding these links a crucial task. Engaging in this very task, this report focuses on the EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement, with a particular attention to the case of Brazil. Using the Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) as an analytical base, the report examines recent and relevant trade agreements entered into by Brazil and the EU to contextualize and understand the links between environmental protection on the one hand and government procurement and financial services on the other. The insights generated are then applied to the analysis of the government procurement and financial services chapters of the EUMTA, in an effort to understand how these rules affect parties’ ability to regulate in pursuit of environmental outcomes.
Topic:: Environment, Treaties and Agreements, Trade, WTO, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

423. Circular Economy in the Industrial Goods Sector: A Framework for Understanding Private Sector Progress and Innovation

Author:: Chris Albin-Lackey
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: A circular economy is an economic system “fundamentally based on closing the loops around systems of extraction, production, and consumption.”1 Individual participants in a circular economy reduce, reuse, and recycle. They strive to consume less. They minimize waste, especially by producing and using longer-lasting goods that do not need to be replaced often. And as much as possible, they recycle goods that can no longer be used back into the production loop, minimizing the need to extract new resources and materials from the natural world.2 Some definitions of a circular economy also emphasize the idea of minimizing harm to the natural environment and taking meaningful actions to restore it.3 Since the idea of a circular economy describes an entire economic system, it is not primarily framed around the specific, near-term behavior of individual companies within the existing economy. No complex business can attain perfect circularity within the context of our emphatically non-circular global economy. Systemic progress towards a circular economy would require strong and coherent government action in the form of regulation, support and incentives. State action would ultimately need to shape the behavior of actors across the entire breadth of the economy. The literature details more comprehensive and detailed visions of circularity and the synergies between circular economy, climate and environmental goals. Generally speaking, that literature describes the larger system and not the immediate steps companies should take to align with and support progress towards a more circular economy.4 However, individual companies can take meaningful steps forward, both alone and in collaboration with others. This paper contributes to a wider understanding of what such efforts look like in practice by studying the circular economy goals, efforts and claims of about 50 companies across the industrial goods sector. It breaks down essential elements of circular economy innovation and good practice into five distinct categories of company action–outlined below–and describes practical examples of each based on companies’ publicly-articulated claims.
Topic:: Economy, Business, Manufacturing, Innovation, and Industry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

424. Refuge: How the State Shapes Human Potential with Heba Gowayed (Episode 16)

Author:: Heba Gowayed
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Drawing on a global and comparative ethnography, Professor Heba Gowayed (https://www.hebagowayed.com/) explores how Syrian men and women seeking refuge in a moment of unprecedented global displacement are received by countries of resettlement and asylum—the U.S., Canada, and Germany. It shows that human capital, typically examined as the skills immigrants bring with them that shape their potential, is actually created, transformed, or destroyed by receiving states’ incorporation policies. Since these policies derive from historically informed and unequal approaches to social welfare, refugees’ experiences raise a mirror to how states (re)produce inequality.
Topic:: Immigration, Refugees, Displacement, Syrian War, Resettlement, Asylum, and Social Welfare
Political Geography:: Syria and Global Focus

425. If-Then Commitments for AI Risk Reduction

Author:: Holden Karnofsky
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: If-then commitments are an emerging framework for preparing for risks from AI without unnecessarily slowing the development of new technology. The more attention and interest there is in these commitments, the faster a mature framework can progress.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Risk, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

426. Corrupt behavior and the safety of organizational units of the Prison Service

Author:: Marta Jaroszewska
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Corruption in a broad, general sense is perceived as an important social problem that occurs in all spheres of human activity. This phenomenon develops according to the dynamics of changes in a given society. What remains unchanged over the years is that the purpose of corruption is material goods and personal benefits. The subject of this article is the phenomenon of corruption occurring in penitentiary units in the context of their security. When considering the issue of corruption, particular attention should be paid to the judicial authorities and places where perpetrators of crimes, including persons convicted for bribery, are serving sentences, i.e. prisons or detention centers.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Prisons/Penal Systems, Organized Crime, and Resocialization
Political Geography:: Poland and Global Focus

427. The issue of anti-corruption prevention from the perspective of local government

Author:: Beata Tomaszewska-Hołub
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Anti-corruption prevention is an important element in combating corruption crime. This prevention is a complex system, consisting of formal and legal rules and regulations, organizational procedures, rules of professional ethics for local government officials, and activities aimed at raising awareness of responsibility and corruption risks. Interesting solutions are “Codes of Ethics” and “Anti-corruption Policies” introduced in local government offices. It should be emphasized that anti-corruption prevention must be constantly adapted to the changing situation of corruption threats.
Topic:: Corruption, Regulation, Ethics, and Local Government
Political Geography:: Global Focus

428. Corruption at the level of local and central government in view of the country’s resilience system

Author:: Maciej Pietrusiński
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Corruption regardless of its form and the stage at which it occurs has a pathological character. It has a destructive impact on the functioning mechanisms of public at state level, at local level and private institutions, as well as causing dysfunctions in economic systems. In addition, corruption causes security threats on a national, regional and global scale. There is no country in the world that has managed to fully solve the problem of corruption. The mechanisms and guidelines being put in place for offices and organisations countering this issue only limit the scale and narrow the area of impact. Even institutions concerned with ensuring security inside the state and protecting its interests beyond its borders are not free from this practice. This article will describe the impact of bribery on the functioning of key areas affecting the entire state and international security system.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Corruption, Resilience, Military, Local Government, and Public Administration
Political Geography:: Poland and Global Focus

429. Navigating the gray zone: the theoretical dilemma of interest groups impacting public life through lobbying and the threat of corruption

Author:: Mariusz Popławski
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: From the very beginning of human civilization, the ones in power were impacted by the others, who tried to gain from a more favorable decision. In order to achieve that, one could have used the correct arguments based on rationality, which, for instance, could have had an economic background. That demands much effort, meaning we should know the person we are trying to convince, learn about the situation, and gather opinions, evidence, and all sorts of data that could be useful. Others could try something risky and illegal – all sorts of corruption, including bribes, embezzlement, nepotism, extortion, kickbacks, etc. The distinction between the two seems straightforward, but only on the surface. If we get deeper into the issue, things get way more complex, and we might find it difficult to draw a clear line since the gray zone keeps growing. The paper concentrates then on the joint history of corruption and lobbying to give us a broad picture of the issue. Secondly, various concepts of the definition are analyzed to understand where we are in terms of the search between the two phenomena. The article ends with conclusions and further research suggestions.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Lobbying, and Interest Groups
Political Geography:: Global Focus

430. Social determinants of corruption at the local level

Author:: Waldemar Wojtasik and Łukasz Trembaczowski
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Although the phenomenon of corruption is sometimes viewed through the prism of legal or economic issues, at its core it is a social phenomenon. Contemporary studies on corruption draw attention to its relationship with the issue of trust. The typological model of the relationship between trust and corruption provided the analytical framework for the described studies. Relating the types of corruption to objects of trust creates a perspective in which the perception of corruption by officials is an area of particular interest. The described research presents the perception of various dimensions of political corruption by local government officials. The juxtaposition of the assessed corruption phenomena indicates their interconnectedness in the perception of the respondents, thereby emphasizing the importance of accountability of political authorities.
Topic:: Corruption, Crime, Government, Governance, and Trust
Political Geography:: Global Focus

431. Segment and rule: Modern censorship in authoritarian regimes

Author:: Kun Heo and Antoine Zerbini
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: We analyze the incentives of authoritarian regimes to segment access to censored content tthrough technology. Citizens choose whether to pay to access censored online content at a cost fixed by the regime: the firewall. A low firewall segments access and generates more compliance than full censorship – a high firewall – ever could. Regime opponents self-select into consuming censored content, and comply conditional on positive independent reporting. Regime supporters exclusively consume state propaganda, which secures their compliance. This segment-and-rule strategy can be engineered by making local news outlets uninformative, or by affecting the intrinsic benefit from access.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Internet, and Censorship
Political Geography:: Global Focus

432. Theory of developmental dictatorship

Author:: Hyungmin Park
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:: This article studies the developmental motives of a dictator under the modernisation hypothesis. He faces a trade-off between pursuing higher future gains with growing threats from the rise of the middle class and accepting lower gains for a more stable regime. I show that his optimal strategy is to invest in an underdeveloped economy for higher future returns. As the economy matures, investment declines as the focus shifts toward maintaining the regime. Without this threat, the economy regresses or fully develops depending on the profitability of investment and regime stability. My framework helps explain empirical puzzles about why some underdeveloped autocracies achieve faster economic growth. I also analyse how steady state varies by the length of future horizon under consideration. Contrary to Olson (1993)’s traditional theory that longer horizon concern makes high development, I find that a farsighted decision-making leads to a lower steady state.
Topic:: Economy, Dictatorship, Modernization, Decision-Making, and Regime Durability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

433. Falsedades y mitos en los estudios sobre migraciones: consecuencias para las Relaciones Internacionales

Author:: José Miguel Bravo and Pablo Rey-García
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: La reproducción de nociones falsas y mitos en los estudios sobre migración disminuye la credibilidad en su conexión con las Relaciones Internacionales y la Seguridad. Para evitar eso, proponemos la utilización del escepticismo creativo como herramienta académica. De esta manera, valoramos el área de estudios sobre migración analizando su desarrollo institucional y la calidad de sus resultados de investigación. Como segundo paso, describimos los seis mitos más persistentes en los estudios sobre migración en las siguientes áreas: en el del Derecho; en el de las Políticas Públicas; en el de la Demografía; en el de la Economía; en el de la Cooperación y el desarrollo y, en el de la Cultura, por la importancia que para estas investigaciones tienen las distintas etnias y religiones. Concluye el artículo con ejemplos de las implicaciones que el uso de mitos tiene para las relaciones internacionales entre Estados miembros de la Unión Europea.
Topic:: International Relations, Migration, Immigration, Myths, and Pseudoscience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

434. AI and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks: Capabilities, Thresholds, and Interventions

Author:: Bill Drexel and Caleb Withers
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Not long after COVID-19 gave the world a glimpse of the catastrophic potential of biological events, experts began warning that rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) could augur a world of bioterrorism, unprecedented superviruses, and novel targeted bioweapons. These dire warnings have risen to the highest levels of industry and government, from the CEOs of the world's leading AI labs raising alarms about new technical capabilities for would-be bioterrorists, to Vice President Kamala Harris’s concern that AI-enabled bioweapons “could endanger the very existence of humanity.”1 If true, such developments would expose the United States to unprecedented catastrophic threats well beyond COVID-19’s scope of destruction. But assessing the degree to which these concerns are warranted—and what to do about them—requires weighing a range of complex factors, including: The history and current state of American biosecurity The diverse ways in which AI could alter existing biosecurity risks Which emerging technical AI capabilities would impact these risks Where interventions today are needed This report considers these factors to provide policymakers with a broad understanding of the evolving intersection of AI and biotechnology, along with actionable recommendations to curb the worst risks to national security from biological threats. The sources of catastrophic biological risks are varied. Historically, policymakers have underappreciated the risks posed by the routine activities of well-intentioned scientists, even as the number of high-risk biosecurity labs and the frequency of dangerous incidents—perhaps including COVID-19 itself—continue to grow. State actors have traditionally been a source of considerable biosecurity risk, not least the Soviet Union’s shockingly large bioweapons program. But the unwieldiness and imprecision of bioweapons has meant that states remain unlikely to field large-scale biological attacks in the near term, even though the U.S. State Department expresses concerns about the potential bioweapons capabilities of North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. On the other hand, nonstate actors—including lone wolves, terrorists, and apocalyptic groups—have an unnerving track record of attempting biological attacks, but with limited success due to the intrinsic complexity of building and wielding such delicate capabilities. Today, fast-moving advancements in biotechnology—independent of AI developments—are changing many of these risks. A combination of new gene editing techniques, gene sequencing methods, and DNA synthesis tools is opening a new world of possibilities in synthetic biology for greater precision in genetic manipulation and, with it, a new world of risks from the development of powerful bioweapons and biological accidents alike. Cloud labs, which conduct experiments on others’ behalf, could enable nonstate actors by allowing them to outsource some of the experimental expertise that has historically acted as a barrier to dangerous uses. Though most cloud labs screen orders for malicious activity, not all do, and the constellation of existing bioweapons norms, conventions, and safeguards leaves open a range of pathways for bad actors to make significant progress in acquiring viable bioweapons. But experts’ opinions on the overall state of U.S. biosecurity range widely, especially with regard to fears of nonstate actors fielding bioweapons. Those less concerned contend that even if viable paths to building bioweapons exist, the practicalities of constructing, storing, and disseminating them are far more complex than most realize, with numerous potential points of failure that concerned parties either fail to recognize or underemphasize. They also point to a lack of a major bioattacks in recent decades, despite chronic warnings. A more pessimistic camp points to experiments that have demonstrated the seeming ease of successfully constructing powerful viruses using commercially available inputs, and seemingly diminishing barriers to the knowledge and technical capabilities needed to create bioweapons. Less controversial is the insufficiency of U.S. biodefenses to adequately address large-scale biological threats, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate. Despite COVID-19’s demonstration of the U.S. government’s inability to contain the effects of a major outbreak, the nation has made limited progress in mitigating the likelihood and potential harm of another, more dangerous biological catastrophe. New AI capabilities may reshape the risk landscape for biothreats in several ways. AI is enabling new capabilities that might, in theory, allow advanced actors to optimize bioweapons for more precise effects, such as targeting specific genetic groups or geographies. Though such capabilities remain speculative, if realized they would dramatically alter states’ incentives to use bioweapons for strategic ends. Instead of risking their own militaries’ or populations’ health with the unwieldy weapons, states could sabotage other nations’ food security or incapacitate enemies with public health crises from which they would be unlikely to rebound. Relatedly, the same techniques could create superviruses optimized for transmissibility and lethality, which may considerably expand the destructive potential of bioweapons. Tempering these fears, however, are several technical challenges that scientists would need to overcome—if they can be solved at all. The most pressing concern for biological risks related to AI stems from tools that may soon be able to accelerate the procurement of biological agents by nonstate actors. Recent studies have suggested that foundation models may soon be able to help accelerate bad actors’ ability to acquire weaponizable biological agents, even if the degree to which these AI tools can currently help them remains marginal.2 Of particular concern are AI systems’ budding abilities to help troubleshoot where experiments have gone wrong, speeding the design-build-test-learn feedback loop that is essential to developing working biological agents. If made more effective, emerging AI tools could provide a boon to would-be bioweapons creators by more dynamically providing some of the knowledge needed to produce and use bioweapons, though such actors would still face other significant hurdles to bioweapons development that are often underappreciated. AI could also impact biological risks in other ways. Technical faults in AI tools could fail to constrain foundation models from relaying hazardous biological information to potential bad actors, or inadvertently encourage researchers to pursue promising medicinal agents with unexpected negative side effects. Using AI to create more advanced automated labs could expose these labs to many of the risks of automation that have historically plagued other complex automated systems, and make it easier for nonspecialists to concoct biological agents (depending upon the safety mechanisms that automated labs institute). Finally, heavy investment in companies and nations seeking to capitalize on AI’s potential for biotechnology could be creating competition dynamics that prioritize speed over safety. These risks are particularly acute in relation to China, where a variety of other factors shaping the country’s biotech ecosystem also further escalate risks of costly accidents.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Biosecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

435. Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching

Author:: Katrina Burgess, John Githongo, Prerna Singh, Daniel Ziblatt, and Evan Lieberman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching: Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024. Experts weigh-in on how citizens and leaders from other world regions are viewing the November 5th US election. What do they believe is at stake for their countries and regions? Is America still seen as a model for democracy? How do they view the candidates? SPEAKERS: Katrina Burgess on Latin America. Katrina Burgess is professor of political economy and director of the Henry J Leir Institute of Migration and Human Security at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Her research areas include Latin America, political economy of development, comparative politics, and migration and diasporas. She is the writer and producer of Waylaid in Tijuana, a documentary film that explores US immigration policies. "Courting Migrants: How States Make Diasporas and Diasporas Make State," is one of her award-winning books. John Githongo on Africa. John Githongo hails from Kenya, where he was a journalist and became a leading light in the international Transparency movement. He has held a variety of government, non-government and academic appointments, and was recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the world’s 100 top global thinkers. Among his many posts, he serves as a senior advisor to the Office of the President of South Sudan on governance. He currently resides at the MIT Center for International Studies as its prestigious Robert E Wilhelm fellow. Prerna Singh on Asia. Prerna Singh is the Mahatma Gandhi Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Brown University. Her research interests include the comparative political economy of development; identity politics; and the politics of South Asia and East Asia. Her book, "How Solidarity Works for Welfare: Subnationalism and Social Development in India," analyzes the causes of variations in social welfare institutions and development by focusing on the dramatic divergences in social policies and outcomes across Indian provinces. Daniel Ziblatt on Europe. Daniel Ziblatt is the director of Harvard University's Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies where he is also Eaton Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on Europe and the comparative study of democracy. His recent book, "Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point," co-authored with Steve Levitsky, provides an analysis of American democracy in comparative perspective. Moderator: Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He conducts research on the political-economy of development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. He studies the democratic politics of governing ethnically and racially diverse societies, including the challenges of public health, climate adaptation, and ensuring respect for human dignity. Lieberman is the author, most recently, of "Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, and Kamala Harris
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

436. Strengthening Reintegration Support to Boys Formerly Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups Who Are Victims/Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence

Author:: Barbara Buckinx and Charu Lata Hogg
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This policy report summarizes insights from a workshop held in Bogotá, Colombia, on December 4, 2023, titled, “Strengthening Reintegration Support to Boys Formerly Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups Who Are Victims/Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence.” The workshop was organized by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD), All Survivors Project (ASP), and the UN Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict (OSRSG CAAC).
Topic:: Armed Forces, Children, Sexual Violence, Armed Conflict, and Reintegration
Political Geography:: Colombia and Global Focus

437. The Olympics: Arenas of Contention

Author:: Jung Woo Lee
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Political tensions simmered under the facade of international communion at the Paris 2024 Games as countries competed both on and off the stage
Topic:: Politics, Sports, Olympics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: France and Global Focus

438. Feminist Technology Diplomacy: An FFP Approach to Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Elise Stephenson and Isobel Barry
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: Artificial Intelligence (AI) has rapidly gained global momentum, with technological developments spurred on by generative AI and increased automation across military, medical, humanitarian, and educational domains, hastening the need to prioritise good international governance. To realise the gains whilst mitigating the risks of AI, robust governance frameworks are required to which feminist foreign policy (FFP) approaches are relevant. AI regulation that focuses on mitigating harms toward minoritised groups, particularly women, should be a critical priority for governments and international organisations. Failing to address these issues risks disenfranchising half the global population, ultimately leading to missed opportunities for gains in productivity and efficiency driven by AI advancements.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, Women, Feminism, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

439. A Feminist Foreign Policy Approach to Counter-terrorism

Author:: Shannon Zimmerman
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: This brief explores what a feminist foreign policy approach to counter-terrorism might look like. A key role of foreign policy is to ensure a state’s national security. However, the field of national security in most countries is deeply gendered. State approaches to addressing terrorism and violent extremism are no exception to this, despite clear evidence that gender-sensitive approaches to counter-terrorism and preventing/countering violence extremism are more effective. This brief highlights the value added by including feminist approaches to counter-terrorism and explores what such an approach might entail. Last, it describes how Australia might apply a feminist approach to its current counter-terrorism activities to ensure initiatives are more comprehensive, effective and sustainable.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Australia and Global Focus

440. Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change

Author:: Edoardo Campanella and Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Driven by the push to decarbonize the world and achieve net zero emissions by 2050, a new anti-elite revolt is in the making in developed economies: If mainstream parties ignore the losers of the green transition as they did with globalization, climate populism not only will slow the adoption of climate policies but could also shake Western democracies. Climate policies are a perfect target for populist rhetoric: They rely on expert knowledge, entail globalist thinking and action, and the counterfactual nature of their benefits—avoiding disasters that would otherwise happen—gives ample fodder for conspiracy theories. And their costs are unevenly shared, hitting those at the bottom of the income distribution significantly harder than those at the top. Climate populism is particularly a problem on the far right, where doubts about science and opposition to international cooperation are strongest. Policies need to deal with this rising political opposition. Given the depth of their grievances, and as it is often the case with populism, it is unlikely that voters antagonistic to climate policies will be persuaded by rational arguments. What will change their behavior are economic incentives. If green technologies are cheaper than fossil fuel ones, they will be adopted to save money rather than the planet. Thus the costs of the green transition need to be reduced through more open trade in the short run and more innovation in the long run. In addition, those who support climate policies need to be mobilized through more engaging political strategies, more emotional narratives, and more bottom-up policy approaches.
Topic:: Climate Change, Populism, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

441. The Trinity of COVID Era Inflation in G7 Economies

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon and Asher Rose
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: COVID era inflation was driven by a unique combination of three shocks: First, a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and disruptions to supply caused prices of consumer durable goods to skyrocket. Second, the Ukraine war caused the largest global commodity price surge in 40 years, which mainly affected prices of nondurable goods such as food and gasoline. Third, strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic recession caused labor markets to tighten, pushing up prices of services. This paper estimates models of the components of consumer prices in each G7 economy in order to document the transmission of these shocks. The first two shocks had run their course by 2023, enabling overall inflation to decline sharply from its 2022 peak. But labor markets remained at least moderately tight in most G7 economies in 2024, and services inflation remained noticeably higher than its pre-pandemic level.
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, G7, COVID-19, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:: Global Focus

442. Inclusion of Loss and Damage as a Subgoal in the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)

Author:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: The policy brief demonstrates how incorporating Loss and Damage (L&D) into the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) being discussed currently at COP 29 will address not only the equity gap for developing countries, but also provide a well-rounded and well-defined climate finance landscape. By anchoring L&D as a distinct component within the NCQG, developing countries can secure finances to respond to unavoidable climate impacts and non-economic loss and damage, ensuring a more comprehensive and just response to the climate crisis.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, Equity, Loss and Damage (L&D), and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

443. An Integrative Framework to Assess Trade-Offs and Implications of Choosing Measurements

Author:: Laura García Montoya
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Deciding how to measure critical social science concepts like inequality and democracy is one of the most consequential decisions researchers and policymakers make. Yet we lack concrete guidelines to recognize and weigh the tradeoffs that make going from concept to measurement such a challenging task. This paper builds on existing work on measurement validity and develops a framework that allows scholars to identify the trade-offs between three desirable properties of measurement: completeness, interpretability, and normative alignment. The first challenge results from the inherent trade-off between completeness and interpretability. The second challenge results from the lack of empirical tools to assess the normative implications of choosing one indicator over another one. To exemplify how to navigate these challenges, the paper engages with debates on how to measure democracy and inequality. The paper aims to guide scholars in the consequential task of choosing one indicator that matches their research goals as well as their normative orientations.
Topic:: Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

444. Statebuilding in fragile countries: What can we learn from past stateness?

Author:: Andrea Vaccaro and Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Supporting state capacity is a priority for the international community, yet the record of internationally supported statebuilding to date has been mixed at best. A key question for continuing research concerns the factors influencing more versus less successful interventions. We show that the quality of past ‘stateness’ is crucial in understanding contemporary state fragility and statebuilding. Extending beyond previous work, we introduce the concept of past stateness, consider theoretically its relationship to contemporary fragility, and explore this relationship empirically, drawing on cross-national data and newly developed indicators. In line with our expectations, descriptive and inferential analysis shows that lack of experience of two core features of stateness—monopoly of violence and existence of a professional bureaucracy—in the past century predicts chronic fragility today. This association is mainly driven by monopoly of violence rather than existence of a professional bureaucracy. Our analysis sheds new light on the underlying heterogeneity among states today labelled as ‘fragile’. From a policy perspective, a key implication is that, in designing interventions, the most relevant experiences are likely to be from other countries with similar stateness legacies, rather than from ‘fragile states’ more generally. Our analysis does not imply that statebuilding is impossible in contexts with weak stateness legacies, but it does underscore the challenges of this and the importance of setting expectations appropriately.
Topic:: Bureaucracy, State Fragility, Statebuilding, and Monopoly of Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

445. What Mode of Supply Will Matter the Most for the Future of Services Trade?

Author:: Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief looks at the latest trends in services trade and tries to show their importance, in its various manifestations, for virtually all countries in the world. The paper starts with a short history of trade in services across centuries. Fast forward to today’s realities, the paper uses the most comprehensive datasets documenting the latest trends in global trade in services by modes of supply, trying to fill a gap in trade policy analysis and providing new insights on the importance of different modes of supply for various countries. The paper concludes with some recommendations aimed at creating a bridge between the various policy priorities shaping the future of globalisation in coming years.
Topic:: Globalization, Services, Trade, and Supply
Political Geography:: Global Focus

446. Trade, Jobs and Technological Change: What to Expect in the Next Five Years?

Author:: Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief explores the intertwined effects of trade and technological change (notably robotics and AI) on employment, highlighting a growing divergence between the number of jobs supported by exports and the declining labour intensity of exports in recent years. The decline in labour intensity may be sharply accelerated by the rise of robotics and the automation of routine tasks, displacing workers in manufacturing and logistics while enhancing productivity. For many countries that have a strong dependence on the trade-jobs nexus, the historically declining labour intensity of exports combined with the rapid adoption of robotics in key economic sectors, will mean that industries could now rely on fewer workers for their exporting activities. This dual shock suggests that, in the future, the number of jobs that depend on trade may decline. The convergence of these forces may lead to certain sectors or regions bearing the brunt of such potential labour disruptions. To address these challenges, supporting policies will be required to mitigate these adverse effects.
Topic:: Globalization, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Trade, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

447. CTC Sentinel: January 2024 Issue

Author:: Haroun Rahimi, Andrew Watkins, Gabriel Weimann, Alexander T. Pack, and Rachel Sulciner
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In the feature article, Haroun Rahimi and Andrew Watkins assess Taliban rule two and a half years into their renewed control of Afghanistan. They write: “Since their 2021 takeover, the Taliban have consolidated control over an impoverished and austere postwar Afghanistan. Since their victory, the Taliban’s emir has reasserted his status as a ‘supreme leader’ and oriented domestic policy in favor of highly conservative constituencies—which has revealed deep differences among their leadership of visions for the future of the Afghan state and society and how authority is divided among themselves. Yet, the Taliban have persistently prioritized the cohesion of their movement and governing apparatus. This trajectory has earned condemnation from Western states and prompted caution in the entire world’s engagement, which has in turn fueled Taliban motivations to reject foreign demands. After two and a half years of rule, the Taliban’s domestic agenda has become intertwined with their foreign relations impasse.” Gabriel Weimann, Alexander Pack, Rachel Sulciner, Joelle Scheinin, Gal Rapaport, and David Diaz write that “with the arrival and rapid adoption of sophisticated deep-learning models such as ChatGPT, there is growing concern that terrorists and violent extremists could use these tools to enhance their operations online and in the real world. Large language models have the potential to enable terrorists to learn, plan, and propagate their activities with greater efficiency, accuracy, and impact than ever before.” The authors offer “an early exploration of how these large language models could be exploited by terrorists or other violent extremists … to support their efforts in training, conducting operational planning, and developing propaganda.” Georgia Gilroy decodes al-Shabaab’s social media strategy, outlining the “controlled, adaptive, and coordinated approach the terrorist group takes to its online behavior.” She writes that the group’s “continued resilience, even in the face of mounting counterinsurgency efforts, is underpinned by its sophisticated communications architecture.” Christian Jokinen assesses whether left-wing terrorism is making a comeback in Germany in a case study of the violent left-wing Engel – Guntermann network. He writes that “the recent concerning trend among German left-wing extremists is toward greater violence and transnationalism.”
Topic:: Terrorism, Taliban, Violent Extremism, Artificial Intelligence, Leftist Politics, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, South America, Germany, and Global Focus

448. CTC Sentinel: February 2024 Issue

Author:: Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, and Daisy Muibu
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Long-range aerial attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group, including a ballistic missile that traveled at least a thousand miles toward Israel before being intercepted (reportedly in space) on October 31, 2023, are focusing minds on long-range stand-off terrorism. In this month’s feature article, which conceptualizes, outlines, and examines the implications of this emerging threat vector, Don Rassler argues that the notion that terrorists could strike the United States across the oceans with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is becoming increasingly less far-fetched. Rassler writes that “over the coming decade, hydrogen fuel cell and solar UAS technology will evolve and mature, and will also likely become more available and accessible to the average consumer, which will make longer ranges more accessible as well. Other disruptive technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, will also mature and will likely be used by extremists to help them optimize system performance and to overcome, or devise creative solutions to, technical long-range UAS challenges.” He warns that “long-range stand-off terrorism will be attractive to some extremists because it opens-up new attack pathways, can enable surprise, and has the potential to deliver a potent psychological, ‘we can strike you from afar’ punch. Over the next decade advancements in commercial technologies and systems will also make range, and extended range, more accessible for violent non-state-entities, making it likely that in the future long-range terrorism will become even more of a threat.” Rassler’s article is the first in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that will examine emerging counterterrorism challenges. Our interview is with Christopher Maier, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. “We need to have sustainable CT operations that prevent terrorists’ actions, principally al-Qa`ida and ISIS, to ensure we are not distracted by what we view as the longer-term strategic priorities, such as peer adversaries,” he says. “As the rest of the Department and other parts of the U.S. government are doing less CT, [this] means that those who are doing it have to do it better and, in many respects, do it more proportionally to the rest of the national security enterprise. This is why SOF is looked to as the lead for the CT fight in the Department.” Daisy Muibu examines the state of Somalia’s military campaign against al-Shabaab. She writes that: “A year and five months after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the initial optimism that characterized its first few months have diminished as the counterinsurgency’s momentum has stalled in the central regions of the country.” She adds that “with only a year left until African Union forces are mandated to fully draw down, significant obstacles remain that cast doubts over the government’s ambitious goals to defeat al-Shabaab and assume full responsibility for securing the country by December 31, 2024.”
Topic:: National Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, Houthis, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Somalia, Global Focus, and United States of America

449. CTC Sentinel: March 2024 Issue

Author:: Barak Mendelsohn, Paul Cruickshank, Caleb Weiss, and Ryan O'Farrell
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In this month’s feature article, Barak Mendelsohn examines the future of the jihadi movement. His article is the second in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that examines emerging counterterrorism challenges and long-term developments. Mendelsohn writes that over 20 years after 9/11, “jihadi violence in the West is low, but the number of Sunni jihadi outfits around the world has increased. And while the central leaderships of both al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State appear in tatters, many of their affiliates are experiencing expansion.” He argues that “anti-regime grievances, the appeal of religious ideology, and the ability to hurt, are likely to maintain jihadism as a viable resistance ideology.” He further warns that “jihadism is still a powerful force and is making inroads in various regions” and that “a more modest jihadi strategy with a regional focus is offering jihadis a new path forward.” But, he notes, “a sustainable jihadi success would require moderation that is simply antithetical to the nature of the ideology.” Our interview is with Mitchell D. Silber, the executive director of the Community Security Initiative, an intiative “created by the leading organizations in the Jewish community in New York to protect the Jewish population and Jewish institutions in the Greater New York City metro area.” He previously served as Director of Intelligence Analysis at the New York City Police Department. Silber describes how in the months since the October 7 attacks in Israel, there has been a surge in antisemitic threats and violence in the greater New York area. “This is kind of like a category five storm. Five times the amount of hateful postings that our intelligence desk had to vet through,” he says, adding that “since October 7, 2023, there have been at least 23 anti-Jewish assaults in New York City.” He outlines how in response to these grave threats, the Jewish “community, leadership, and organizations have rallied, have risen to the occasion, and are now creating the security architecture that we never had before in the United States in order to meet the moment.” Finally, Caleb Weiss and Ryan O’Farrell examine how Operation Shujaa, launched in late 2021 by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda against the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) in the border regions of the DRC near Uganda, has degraded the ability of the group to disseminate propaganda via the Islamic State’s central media apparatus. They write: “While still a serious and deadly threat inside Congo and beyond, [ISCAP’s] propaganda output is a shell of its former self. This decline is, in part, thanks to the current joint Ugandan-Congolese operations against it.”
Topic:: Terrorism, Islamic State, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, Antisemitism, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, New York, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Global Focus, and United States of America

450. CTC Sentinel: October 2024 Issue

Author:: Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Brian Dodwell, Paul Cruickshank, and Sean Morrow
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: I’m thankful to borrow this space from our Editor-in Chief, Paul Cruikshank. Our CTC Sentinel, its editorial board, and our incredible contributors have long provided our readers with details, data, and insight on terrorist groups, tools of violence, trends, and counterterrorism. In short, Sentinel has helped drive the conversations on what to think about for our global audience. As the United States changes administrations in the face of extraordinary complexity, we opted to frame this issue slightly differently. This issue is focused on how we think about terrorism and counterterrorism. The feature article this month comes from Don Rassler and focuses on the pressure states place on violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and how those campaigns of pressure can defend against threats and degrade the capabilities of VEOs. We are privileged to feature General Bryan Fenton, Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command, in this month’s Foxhole interview. He shares his insight on the global threat, the critical role of SOF in strategic competition, and the importance of allies and partners in the global CT fight. Brian Fishman, co-founder of Cinder and formerly Director of Counterterrorism, Dangerous Organizations, and Content Policy at Facebook, helps us understand the realm of online and digital counter terrorism through five key lessons from his time in industry. Dr. Daniel Milton, Director of Terrorism Studies at the George C. Marshall Center, gives us critical insight into how groups choose to expand to external operations (EXOPS) based on a group’s opportunity and willingness to “go big.” In a complementary article, our Executive Director, Brian Dodwell, teams up with Don Rassler and Paul Cruickshank to use survey data to provide perspectives on indicators and warning (I&W) for terrorism, key challenges in the I&W space, and how I&W approaches could evolve. Finally, I collaborate with Don Rassler to offer a few thoughts on CT return on investment, specifically at the intersection of CT and strategic competition, through a new framework designed by Don and informed by interviews with regional experts and partners from the CT community. The article demonstrates the returns to key efforts with regard to mitigation and influence where CT and strategic competition converge.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

451. Controlling the danger: managing the risks of AI-enabled nuclear systems

Author:: Noah Greene
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Research on AI and nuclear weapons often discusses three broad categories of risk: technical risks, pitfalls in human-machine teaming, and strategic stability concerns. The potential solutions for mitigating these risks include international political declarations, United Nations level reporting, and a limited purpose AIenabled nuclear weapons treaty.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons, Risk, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

452. The Commitment to Reducing Inequality Index 2024

Author:: Anthony Kamande, Jo Walker, Martin Matthew, and Max Lawson
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Now in its fifth edition, the Commitment to Reducing Inequality Index (CRI) assesses the commitment of 164 countries and regions to fighting inequality. The CRI 2024 offers powerful new evidence on whether governments are acting to reduce inequality through policies on public services, fair taxation and labour rights. It reveals negative trends in the vast majority of countries since 2022. Four in five have cut the share of their budgets going to education, health and/or social protection; four in five have backtracked on progressive taxation; and nine in ten have regressed on labour rights and minimum wages. Nine out of ten countries have backtracked in one or more area, meaning without urgent policy actions to reverse this worrying trend, economic inequality will almost certainly continue to rise in 90% of countries. Despite some progress, the IMF and the World Bank could do far more to prioritize the fight to reduce inequality. This report assesses their actions across the three CRI pillars of public services, taxation and labour rights. It makes recommendations for how the IMF and World Bank should stop promoting policies that increase inequality and instead support those policies that reduce it, as a matter of urgency.
Topic:: Inequality, Tax Systems, Public Service, Wages, Jobs, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

453. Rights and Responsibilities: Understanding the impact of the tech industry on economic inequality

Author:: Meg Roggensack, Gawain Kripke, Michael Borum, and Hana Ivanhoe
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Digital technologies have the potential to either ameliorate or worsen the dynamics underlying poverty and inequality, depending on how those technologies are designed, developed, deployed, and used, as well as on the degree to which the businesses, and business models behind them, respect the rights of users and workers. This paper recommends changes in corporate and government policies and practices to ensure that the information and communication technology (ICT) industry respects human rights and does not exacerbate poverty and economic inequality across five pillars: access and equity, digital civic space, data use and privacy, automation and the future of work, and governance.
Topic:: Human Rights, Poverty, Science and Technology, Governance, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

454. Defining and Assessing Transformational Climate Change Adaptation: A framework for application to agri-food projects

Author:: Richard Kohl
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This discussion paper proposes a framework of four indicators of transformational adaptation – the breadth and depth of change, the intention to achieve transformation, scale and sustainability – and provides a framework to apply these indicators to four types of interventions in agri-food systems.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Sustainability, Adaptation, and Food Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

455. Better Safe Than Sorry: Four fundamentals for scaling up anticipatory action

Author:: Lawrence Robinson
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In the context of ever-increasing humanitarian needs worldwide, anticipatory action is being recognised as one of main the ways in which predictable shocks can be prevented from turning into crises, reducing both the impacts and the costs. Anticipatory action is a critical approach, bridging the work of disaster risk reduction and humanitarian response, and showing great promise as a modality for nexus programming (for example, linking humanitarian to development). While a scale-up of anticipatory action is much needed, it also requires a truly decolonial and feminist approach that supports communities to uphold their rights. To meet this vision, Oxfam has laid out four interconnected fundamental principles for all partners and stakeholders involved in scaling up anticipatory action to use: Feminist and intersectional anticipatory action that is systematic in recognising the strengths and vulnerabilities of people in at-risk communities. It integrates vulnerability indicators to build anticipatory action systems which include at a minimum gender-sensitive, gender-inclusive, and gender-transformative approaches. Decolonial and locally led anticipatory action that challenges global-local power dynamics, recognises and places local leadership as the primary holder of knowledge and decision-making, and ensures funding is accessible for the local and national civil society organisations and communities at the frontlines of disasters. Holistic anticipatory action that does not operate in isolation, that recognises the holistic nature of the system, and responds to the complexity of risks and hazards and the interconnectedness of anticipatory action across disaster management cycles. Collaborative anticipatory action that prioritises common objectives, optimises resources, ensures alignment between efforts, and provides complementarity across the humanitarian, climate, and development sectors. Adopting these principles in the scale-up of anticipatory action will unlock some of the key challenges of the approach. The principles acknowledge the sectoral trends that call for sector-wide transformation in line with key principles, but overall, they are designed to ensure that anticipatory action is effective and fit for purpose. This paper calls for governments, communities, humanitarian, climate, peace and development practitioners, and the private sector to adopt the proposed four interconnected fundamentals in the scale-up of anticipatory action and support at-risk communities to uphold their rights. This principled approach to embedding anticipatory action into policy, practice, and legal frameworks is required to maximise the potential of anticipatory action and prevent predictable shocks from becoming crises.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Disaster Management, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

456. Food Wars: Conflict, Hunger, and Globalization, 2023

Author:: Marc Cohen and Ellen Messer
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Most wars of the late 20th and early 21st centuries have been “food wars”: food and hunger were used as weapons, food and food-related water and energy infrastructure were damaged intentionally or incidentally, and food insecurity persisted as a legacy of conflict destructiveness. Frequently, food insecurity, in turn, is a trigger or underlying cause of conflict. This paper analyzes 54 active conflict, refugee-hosting, and conflict legacy countries with populations in 2023 facing “crisis-level” acute food insecurity, i.e., at Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 3 or higher. In total, nearly 278 million people in these countries faced crisis-level hunger in 2023, accounting for 99% of the global population at IPC 3+ (281.6 million people). Analysis indicates that war-displacement-hunger crises occur in countries that continue to rely heavily on primary product exports. Paradoxically, peacebuilding efforts have often assumed that economic liberalization offers the best or only pathway to sustainable peace. Yet struggle for control over fungible primary commodities can fund more violence, increased inequality, continued instability, and the risk of renewed conflict. Agricultural export commodities are important sources of revenue for smallholder farmers and governments in conflict-affected, food-insecure countries. The conflict implications of export- and food-crop value chains are therefore crucial for future food-wars policy discussions and actions. Some efforts seek to link export crops to efforts to achieve peace, sustainable livelihoods, and environmental restoration. Other proposed solutions focus on adopting more holistic national development strategies, including food-systems approaches that protect and promote the right to food and livelihood security, as well as policy approaches and frameworks that might more effectively consider conflict, globalization, and climate change in food and nutrition policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, Hunger, Displacement, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

457. Climate Finance Unchecked: How much does the World Bank know about the climate actions it claims?

Author:: Christian Donaldson, James Morrissey, and Jason Farr
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Oxfam finds that for World Bank projects, many things can change during implementation. On average, actual expenditures on the Bank’s projects differ from budgeted amounts by 26–43% above or below the claimed climate finance. Across the entire climate finance portfolio, between 2017 and 2023, this difference amounts to US$24.28–US$41.32 billion. No information is available about what new climate actions were supported and which planned actions were cut. Now that the Bank has touted its focus on understanding and reporting on the impacts of its climate finance, it is critical to stress that without a full understanding of how much of what the Bank claims as climate finance at the project approval stage becomes actual expenditure, it is impossible to track and measure the impacts of the Bank's climate co-benefits in practice. The Bank should improve its reporting practices, undertake a climate finance assessment on closed projects, standardize how it reports on climate finance in projects and create a public climate finance database.
Topic:: Development, Climate Finance, Accountability, Transparency, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

458. Carbon Inequality Kills: Why curbing the excessive emissions of an elite few can create a sustainable planet for all

Author:: Mira Alestig, Dabi Nafkote, Abha Jeurkar, Alex Maitland, Max Lawson, Daniel Horen Greenford, Corey Lesk, and Ashfaq Khalfan
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The only way to beat climate breakdown and deliver social justice is to radically reduce inequality. This briefing paper reveals the catastrophic climate impacts of the richest individuals in the world, and proposes taking urgent action to protect people and the planet. What little carbon dioxide we can still safely emit is being burned indiscriminately by the super-rich. We share new evidence of how the yachts, jets and polluting investments of the 50 richest billionaires are accelerating the climate crisis. Oxfam’s research shows that the emissions of the world’s super-rich 1% are causing economic losses of trillions of dollars; contributing to huge crop losses; and leading to millions of excess deaths. As global temperatures continue to rise, risking the lives and livelihoods of people living in poverty and precarity, we must act now to curb the emissions of the super-rich and make rich polluters pay.
Topic:: Climate Finance, Investment, Loss and Damage (L&D), Conference of the Parties (COP), and Billionaires
Political Geography:: Global Focus

459. Understanding the Onboarding Challenges in Digital Financial Services: A Qualitative Exploration

Author:: Faruq Hossain, Jumana Asrar, Aishwarya Sanjukta Roy Proma, and Shahaduz Zaman
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: In Bangladesh’s financial landscape, digital financial service (DFS) has emerged as a transformative force, bringing the unbanked population into the formal financial system. The growth of DFS across the country has significantly increased the number of registered accounts. Despite this progress, many individuals, especially marginalized groups like women, remain inactive and passive users. As a result, a significant portion of the population cannot avail themselves of the full potential of technology-driven financial services. This paper examines the nuances of DFS adoption and usage in Bangladesh, with a focus on sociocultural factors.
Topic:: Women, Marginalization, Banking, and Digital Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

460. UN Tools for Addressing Conflict-Related Sexual Violence: An Analysis of Listings and Sanctions Processes

Author:: Jenna Russo and Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Since the Security Council first recognized conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) as a threat to international peace and security in 2008, the UN has developed an increasing number of pathways to prevent and respond to such crimes. One of these is the annual report of the secretary-general on CRSV, which includes an annexed list of perpetrators who are credibly suspected of committing or being responsible for patterns of CRSV violations in contexts on the agenda of the Security Council. In addition, perpetrators of CRSV may also be designated in UN sanctions regimes. Yet while both of these processes aim to prevent and respond to CRSV, they are not always coherent with one another. This paper analyzes the relationship between the annual reports of the secretary-general on CRSV and sanctions designations to provide recommendations to enhance their complementarity. It provides an overview of the CRSV annual report and the process for listing parties. It then focuses on designations in sanctions regimes for crimes related to sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), including the level of coherence between the reporting of the secretary-general and designations in sanctions regimes. Next, the paper analyzes the reporting and political barriers that inhibit more regular designations for SGBV in sanctions regimes. Finally, it provides recommendations to the UN and member states on how to improve the coherence, coordination, and effectiveness of these processes, including the following.
Topic:: United Nations, Sanctions, Sexual Violence, UN Security Council, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

461. Small States and the Multilateral System: Transforming Global Governance for a Better Future

Author:: Adam Lupel, Kaewkamol Karen Pitakdumrongkit, and Joel Ng
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Small states play a critical role in upholding and advancing multilateralism and international law in the face of growing geopolitical tensions and global challenges. Representing the majority of UN member states, these countries broadly agree on the need to uphold international law, support multilateral cooperation and the institutions of global order, and adhere to the “purposes and principles” of the UN Charter. This paper explores why small states remain committed to the multilateral system, emphasizing that their limited military and economic power makes rules-based international cooperation essential for their security and development. Small states have played an active role in championing international law, serving as agents of international peace and security, protecting and managing shared resources, and bringing issues related to emerging technologies to the forefront of international diplomacy. The paper also examines some of the tools small states have used to craft multilateral responses to frontier issues, including by leveraging their expertise in specific areas, chairing multilateral negotiations, building coalitions to advance their interests, and serving as impartial mediators. Looking to the future, the paper concludes that small states can and should be catalysts for change, offering a path forward amid geopolitical tensions between larger states. Following the adoption of the Pact for the Future in September 2024, small states can consider several priorities to help implement the pact and build a stronger multilateral system for the benefit of all: Reinforce the fundamental principles of international cooperation: Small states should lead and mobilize all member states in recommitting to their obligations under the UN Charter. Expand and strengthen diverse cross-regional coalitions for global governance: Small states should continue to leverage UN processes to widen the group of countries invested in overcoming polarization. Promote information sharing and capacity building: Small states that have the means and subject-matter expertise should redouble their efforts to pool resources and knowledge to build up other states’ capacities. Revamp working methods: Small states should work together to put forward their views on how to revamp and update the working methods of different UN organs. Update the peace and security toolbox: Small states need to be involved in updating the UN’s peace and security toolbox in areas such as mediation, preventive diplomacy, and peacebuilding. Prioritize inclusiveness on new and emerging technologies: If harnessed properly, digitalization and new and emerging technologies could help small states grow their influence. Embed future thinking: Small states should inject their views into the gamut of “forward-looking” and “long-term” conversations taking place at the UN.
Topic:: International Law, United Nations, Governance, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

462. Multilateralism Index 2024

Author:: International Peace Institute
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: There are growing calls to transform the multilateral system, which is widely seen as being in crisis. Yet solving the crisis of multilateralism requires understanding what that crisis entails. What parts of the multilateral system are in crisis, and what parts are still functioning? Where is commitment to multilateralism flagging, and where does it remain strong? Where is multilateral action failing to translate into concrete results, and where is it delivering? Who is being left out of multilateral engagement, and who is being included? And what are the trends over time? To help answer these questions, the International Peace Institute (IPI) and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) developed the Multilateralism Index. This 2024 edition of the Index assesses changes in international cooperation between 2013 and 2023 across five domains: Peace and Security, Human Rights, Climate Action, Public Health, and Trade. Each domain is evaluated across three dimensions: Participation, Performance, and Inclusivity. Looking at each of these dimensions provides several broad takeaways: Participation: The Index does not find a major drop-off in participation by states in the multilateral system. In fact, participation increased across all domains except trade. This signals that member states remain engaged in the system, even if the nature of this engagement has shifted from cooperation toward contestation. At the same time, due to limitations in the indicators available, these improvements in participation should not necessarily be interpreted as a broad-based increase in commitment to multilateral action. Performance: Performance is the one dimension where the multilateral system saw a clear decline across most of the domains. The biggest decline was in peace and security. Human rights and climate action also saw significant declines. These declines may indicate that some global crises are outstripping the multilateral system’s ability to respond. At the same time, these shortcomings are not solely failures of multilateralism, as performance in many areas also depends domestic action by individual states. Moreover, despite these shortcomings, the gears of the multilateral system are continuing to turn. Inclusivity: Broad improvements in the Index’s inclusivity dimension point to two trends: the steady growth in the number of NGOs engaging with various parts of the UN system and the increase in women’s representation across many UN bodies. Limitations in the indicators available make it more difficult to assess progress in other areas, including geographic inclusivity and more substantive inclusivity of women beyond their formal representation at the UN.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

463. Cybersecurity and UN Peace Operations: Evolving Risks and Opportunities

Author:: Dirk Druet
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: This paper discusses the growing potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities of UN peace operations. Fast-moving changes in the cyber capabilities of state and non-state actors, the changing nature of asymmetric warfare, and the positioning of the UN in relation to global and regional geopolitics are increasingly placing peace operations in the crosshairs of complex cybersecurity threats. In parallel to these external trends, internal trends in missions’ intelligence, surveillance, and data management technologies also make them more vulnerable to cyber threats. At the same time, there are opportunities for missions to leverage cybersecurity infrastructure to support the implementation of their mandates, including in the areas of mediation and political settlements and the protection of civil society actors. The paper provides an overview of the cyber threats facing peace operations and opportunities to leverage cybersecurity tools for mandate implementation. It also documents the operational and policy challenges that have arisen and the Secretariat’s efforts to address them. It concludes with several recommendations for the UN as peace operations seek to operate in an increasingly fraught political and cybersecurity environment: The Secretariat should develop cross-cutting operational concepts and guidance for cyber threat assessments. The Secretariat should articulate its understanding of its duty of care for staff privacy and develop operational guidance and expertise for mitigating threats to privacy. When facilitating political processes, peace operations should consider whether cybersecurity measures will be equally effective in deterring hacking attempts by all parties to ensure they do not exacerbate “information asymmetries.” The UN should explore the boundaries around missions evading or obstructing surveillance or intrusion activities by host states to secure their operations. The Secretariat should mitigate the volume of data exposed to external systems, including by deploying UN-owned and UN-operated intelligence and surveillance devices when possible.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, Risk, and Asymmetric Warfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

464. The Protection and Promotion of Civic Space in UN Peacekeeping Operations

Author:: Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: UN peacekeeping operations have a vital role to play in protecting and promoting civic space. Shrinking civic space undermines human rights, generates instability, and impacts the ability of missions to execute their mandates. Supporting civic space is also connected to core areas of missions’ work, including support to political processes, the protection of civilians, and the promotion of human rights. This paper identifies how missions are contributing to the protection and promotion of civic space and the obstacles they face in doing so. It identifies how civic space has been reflected in mission mandates and analyzes whether the inclusion of explicit language on civic space has an impact on the work undertaken by missions. It also explores how missions have sought to protect and promote civic space and examines the challenges they face when engaging in these activities. Despite these challenges, the paper concludes that peacekeeping missions have unique advantages in protecting and promoting civic space, such as their ability to protect civilians and connect civic space initiatives to broader political mandates. Yet their efforts are not always part of a common strategy for promoting and protecting civic space. The paper offers four considerations to help guide future exploration of the topic: Policymakers should consider the utility of adding explicit language on civic space to mission mandates and weigh the risks and benefits. Missions should consider how to connect the dots between their different efforts related to civic space. Missions that have implemented more systematic approaches to monitoring civic space should gather lessons on whether and how this monitoring has impacted their ability to respond to civic space restrictions. The UN should improve reporting on the collective impact of activities related to civic space to illustrate the role missions play and their comparative advantages.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Protection, and Civic Space
Political Geography:: Global Focus

465. Safeguarding Humanitarian Action from the Unintended Effects of Sanctions: Resolution 2664 and the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida Regime

Author:: Alice Debarre
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Resolution 2664, adopted by the UN Security Council on December 9, 2022, was a landmark resolution that created a clear and well-defined humanitarian carve-out for UN sanctions. The application of the carve-out to the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime was particularly important given the far-reaching impact of that regime. It applies across multiple countries, including some of the world’s most challenging humanitarian contexts. This paper examines how Resolution 2664 has established a humanitarian carve-out within UN sanctions regimes and its impact on facilitating humanitarian access to financial services. It also analyzes the limitations the resolution imposes on asset-freeze measures and specific humanitarian organizations, as well as the challenges of extending the carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime beyond its expiration in December 2024. In order to maintain the positive impact on humanitarian operations of the resolution so far, including in situations impacted by the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime, and to realize the full potential of Resolution 2664 in safeguarding humanitarian action, this paper offers the following recommendations: Security Council members should decide a standing application of the humanitarian carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida sanctions regime in December 2024. Humanitarian actors should continue to provide member states with evidence of the positive humanitarian impact of Resolution 2664. Humanitarian actors should continue to share information with member states and donors about their due-diligence and risk-mitigation practices and any instances of incidental benefits going to listed individuals or entities. All stakeholders should ensure that discussions around Resolution 2664 and the carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime are fact- and evidence-based. Member states should fully implement Resolution 2664 in a harmonized manner and pursue efforts to socialize and operationalize it. All stakeholders should pursue and strengthen cross-sector engagement.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Sanctions, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Global Focus

466. Connecting Sexual Exploitation and Abuse and Sexual Harassment in UN Peace Operations

Author:: Phoebe Donnelly and Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Activists and researchers have long called attention to the harm UN peacekeepers can cause to populations where they deploy, including through sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) of civilians in the host community. More recently, researchers have pointed out that some UN peacekeepers also commit sexual harassment (SH) and assault against their peacekeeping colleagues while deployed. Both forms of sexual abuse have similar root causes, including unequal power dynamics and the abuse of power differentials. Nonetheless, SEA and SH fall under different UN policies and mechanisms. This creates confusion for policymakers, UN peacekeepers, and victims or survivors of all backgrounds. It can also undermine prevention efforts, considering that many of the same factors enable both forms of abuse. This issue brief considers why the divide between SEA and SH has come about and whether it is still useful for UN peacekeeping. It maps existing UN mechanisms for addressing SEA and SH and identifies gaps in their application to various groups of victims. It also examines the influence of mission culture and leadership on SEA and SH. While there are important differences between SEA against host communities and SH against peacekeepers, the report argues for shifting toward the more holistic concept of sexual exploitation, abuse, and harassment (SEAH). This could allow the UN to better prevent both SEA and SH by addressing the gendered power imbalances that lie at their root. It could also avoid creating false hierarchies of harm and ensure all victims of sexual abuse receive the same level of attention.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sexual Violence, Sexual Exploitation, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

467. Logistics in Transition. Exploring Geopolitical, Economic, and Technological Trends

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: International cooperation is paramount for building global connectivity and resilient logistic systems. Geopolitical shifts and climate change pose challenges that could disrupt the effective functioning of logistics. This underscores the need for policymakers and operators to implement mitigation measures that also enhance the security of supplies. Amidst global turmoil, diversification and redundancy of transportation systems and modes are crucial, with the security of supplies serving as the backbone for the smooth functioning of the global economy. In a geopolitically charged context, the challenges of the digital and green transition remain at the forefront. How can the resilience of value chains be increased in the face of geopolitical factors, while simultaneously navigating the dual transition? How can logistics adapt to and benefit from the new international wave of potentially protectionist industrial policies? How can risks be reduced, and what are the strategies for Europe, Italy, and the involved enterprises?
Topic:: International Cooperation, Economy, Logistics, Supply Chains, Green Transition, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

468. The tension between exploding AI investment costs and slow productivity growth

Author:: Bertin Martens
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: This working paper explores the tension between rapidly increasing artificial intelligence investment costs and the slower pace of productivity growth, raising concerns about a potential ‘economic winter’ for AI. AI has shown significant technological progress, particularly with machine learning and generative AI models like ChatGPT. Investment in AI has surged. But there are concerns about whether these investments will yield proportional returns. Training costs for a single frontier AI model are increasing exponentially, , from $1,000 in 2017 to nearly $200 million in 2024, driven by constant returns to scale in AI model training data, compute capacity and model complexity. Costs could reach billions of dollars by 2030, despite a rapid fall in unit costs per computing operation over the same period. Global AI infrastructure costs in hardware could exceed $1 trillion by the mid-2030s. Amortizing these huge fixed costs requires business models that can be rolled out across a very large user market. Estimates about AI’s contribution to productivity growth vary, from a modest 0.5 percent per year to a very optimistic 10 percent per year. Research shows that productivity usually catches up slowly compared to costs. Without significant productivity gains, the current investment cost trajectory is unsustainable. We estimate that 3 percent annual productivity growth across advanced economies would be required to sustain AI model cost extrapolations to 2030. In an optimistic scenario, productivity increases would result in accelerated economic growth.
Topic:: Digital Economy, Economic Growth, Microeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

469. Are Carbon Border Adjustments a Dream Climate Policy or Protectionist Nightmare?

Author:: Gabriella Beaumont-Smith
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Climate change is an increasingly important consideration in trade policy. For instance, many countries try to limit their greenhouse gas emissions through domestic carbon pricing and regulatory schemes, and many trade agreements now include environmental provisions. In addition, some policymakers are looking to extend carbon pricing schemes to the international level. This has led to proposals for a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which would tax the carbon emissions connected to the imported goods at the same rate as the carbon tax applied to domestic products.
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Emissions, Protectionism, and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

470. Digital Trade Brings the World to Your Fingertips

Author:: Gabriella Beaumont-Smith
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Digital trade allows more goods and services to be traded internationally. For years, digital trade was not formally defined, but its increasing importance led to an established definition in 2019. The Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade defines digital trade as “all international trade that is digitally ordered and/or digitally delivered.” This definition demonstrates that rather than being a sector of its own, digital trade describes the nature of certain transactions. Since digital trade is about the mode of particular international trade transactions, the complete value of digital trade is not captured in official trade statistics.
Topic:: Economy, Free Market, and Digital Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

471. A climate loss and damage fund that works

Author:: Melanie Pill and Georgia Hammersley
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The new Fund for responding to Loss and Damage should adopt a clear allocation mechanism based on recipient countries’ vulnerability, emission contributions, and climate change policies. Loss and Damage solutions are unlikely to result in clear financial returns, and the Fund should therefore focus on providing fast and efficient grant-based finance to the most vulnerable countries. Simplified procedures for countries and organisations to access financing and a flexible suite of implementation approaches are key. To raise more financial support, the Fund should explore the potential for engagement with philanthropies and encourage donor countries to adopt voluntary market mechanisms such as levies to raise additional funds.
Topic:: Climate Change, Climate Finance, and Loss and Damage (L&D)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

472. Practical Guide for Formulating Public Policies to Prevent Violence Against Women

Author:: Igarapé Institute
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Igarapé Institute
Abstract:: Violence against women is a complex and devastating reality, manifesting in various forms, including physical, sexual, psychological, and economic abuse. Within this context, this guide presents programs and initiatives evaluated by renowned organizations such as the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (JPAL), the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank, and UN Women, highlighting approaches that have shown high effectiveness and efficiency in preventing violence against women. The goal is to use these practical experiences as a foundation for evidence-based public policy formulation to prevent violence against women. We begin by analyzing the risk and protective factors associated with violence against women. Using the “Pyramid of Gender-based Violence” by the Institute for Studies on State and Participation – Health as a framework, we explore the different forms in which these factors operate, from individual to structural. We also provide context for the legal landscape related to violence against women, emphasizing the role of the Maria da Penha Law as a regulatory milestone in Brazil. Based on examples of programs already implemented and evaluated worldwide, the guide underscores the importance of initiatives that promote women’s financial autonomy through access to employment opportunities, professional training, and entrepreneurship. It also emphasizes efforts to challenge gender stereotypes and foster relationships based on mutual respect and equal rights. The guide reaffirms the need for public policies focused on preventing intrafamilial and domestic violence, including strengthening the protection network for women with specialized support services and effective security measures. It suggests implementing educational and awareness programs on gender violence to transform environments where violence against women occurs, such as schools and homes. Additionally, it advocates for promoting safe and inclusive spaces. Finally, the guide highlights the importance of involving all sectors of society in implementing these policies, including the government, civil society, the private sector, and the community at large. Only through coordinated, long-term efforts can we create an environment where all women can live free from violence and with dignity.
Topic:: Development, Public Policy, Domestic Violence, Gender, Protection, and Violence Against Women (VAW)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

473. Generative Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Labor Markets in Developing Countries: A Review Essay

Author:: Guillermo Cruces, Verónica Amarante, and Estefanía Lotitto
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: The unprecedented developments in artificial intelligence technology and its recent widespread availability hold transformative potential to reshape global economic dynamics and labor markets, though opinions on its effects vary greatly. Transformative or not, the irruption of AI has sparked ample public discussion as well as the rapid development of theoretical and empirical approaches to understand it. This review essay discusses recent perspectives, theories, and empirical evidence on the matter, and adds a perspective of the implications of this technology and of the policy discussion it has sparked, from the perspective of developing countries’ economies. The latter is motivated by the relative scarcity of such perspectives in the current public debate, which seems to have minimized the potential effects on the interaction of labor markets between developing and developed countries, and on the potentially different within-country effects at different levels of development.
Topic:: Economic Development, Artificial Intelligence, Literature Review, Labor Market, and Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

474. Design of Partial Population Experiments with an Application to Spillovers in Tax Compliance

Author:: Guillermo Cruces, Dario Tortarolo, and Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: We develop a framework to analyze partial population experiments, a generalization of the cluster experimental design where clusters are assigned to different treatment intensities. Our framework allows for heterogeneity in cluster sizes and outcome distributions. We study the large-sample behavior of OLS estimators and cluster-robust variance estimators and show that (i) ignoring cluster heterogeneity may result in severely underpowered experiments and (ii) the cluster-robust variance estimator may be upward-biased when clusters are heterogeneous. We derive formulas for power, minimum detectable effects, and optimal cluster assignment probabilities. All our results apply to cluster experiments, a particular case of our framework. We set up a potential outcomes framework to interpret the OLS estimands as causal effects. We implement our methods in a large-scale experiment to estimate the direct and spillover effects of a communication campaign on property tax compliance. We find an increase in tax compliance among individuals directly targeted with our mailing, as well as compliance spillovers on untreated individuals in clusters with a high proportion of treated taxpayers.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Randomized Controlled Trials, Compliance, Spillovers, Cluster Experiments, and Two-Stage Designs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

475. International Relations in Search of an Antidote

Author:: Ali L. Karaosmanoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This essay is based on the author’s long-time observation of the International Relations discipline and the repeated crises it has experienced. The piece identifies ‘event-drivenness’ as the structural reason behind these crises, in other words, the course of the discipline naturally follows global IR events and, depending on how transformative these events are, when responding to them, is more likely to fall into an existential crisis—with the most recent one being potentially fatal. By discussing in detail the a) science-statecraft relationship; b) scholar-practitioner disconnect; c) distortion of theories by scholars and practitioners; d) paradoxical relationship between rationality and irrationality; and e) theory-practice disconnect, the essay seeks to operationalize these crisisgenerated processes when responding to major events. In order to show these crisis generation processes in detail, it uses the theories of political realism and, to a lesser degree, classical liberalism, as case reflections. As a possible solution to the reciprocal condescension between scholarship (theory-making) and statecraft (practice), the essay proposes a “Clausewitzian” modus vivendi that aims at creating a culture of synthesis between the presumed producers and consumers of IR knowledge.
Topic:: International Relations, Academia, and Knowledge Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

476. The Monroe Doctrine as the Will and Idea of the United States of America

Author:: Boris Martynov
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: On February 24, 2022, international relations entered a whole new stage of development affecting, albeit to varying degrees, practically all states, with no end in sight. On September 7, 2022, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world was experiencing “fundamental transformations.” Such transformations generally require several years to be completed. By the middle of the third decade of the 21st century, two highly important signs of a new situation have become absolutely clear: a crisis of the old institutions of global governance and the new rising and developing centers of power. At the same time, the opinion that the new is just the “well-forgotten old” is confirmed. This is especially true of the US and its policies.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, Governance, Law, Psychology, Identity, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:: Russia, Global Focus, and United States of America

477. Advancing Equity: Mentorship in Peace and Security

Author:: Kimberly Gillies
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: In this report, we synthesize findings from original interviews and extensive research into what makes an effective DEI strategy, the impact of mentorship —particularly on people of color—and how to elevate equity-focused mentoring within the fields of peace, security, and foreign policy. We close with a recommendation to CRAVE mentoring opportunities by founding, joining, or supporting initiatives that: create opportunity for cross-identity contact; establish responsibility structures; cultivate social accountability for involvement; are voluntary; and engage participants in their evolution.
Topic:: Security, Women, Diversity, Peace, Inclusion, Equity, People of Color (POC), and Mentorship
Political Geography:: Global Focus

478. Local Voices, Global Action: Transnational Organizing in Apparel Supply Chains

Author:: Judy Gearhart
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: This working paper discusses transnational organizing in apparel supply chains. It learns from labor rights advocates in the global South who are building social movements, advocating for national reforms, and promoting new forms of accountability in the apparel industry. In particular, the paper examines how the Bangladesh Center for Worker Solidarity (BCWS) and Cambodia’s Center for Alliance of Labor and Human Rights (CENTRAL) have each played a critical role in advancing new agreements and monitoring their implementation. They have increasingly influenced and become leaders in the Clean Clothes Campaign Network. Based on multiple interviews with CENTRAL’s Tola Moeun and BCWS’s Kalpona Akter, the paper traces how they have worked with international allies to expose flaws in supply chain monitoring in the apparel industry. It discusses how they worked with independent trade unions to build grassroots campaigns that often preceded or inspired international campaigns. At the same time as Moeun and Akter came under threat for their national advocacy, they engaged international allies and became experts on trade policy and global supply chains. They are now not only leading proponents of enforceable, multiparty agreements between multinational corporations (MNCs) and independent trade unions, but also advocates for more effective mandatory human rights due diligence laws (MHRDD). Balancing this international advocacy with organizing for national policy reforms is a strategy made all the more necessary by the context of shrinking civic space in Bangladesh and Cambodia. Many companies are seeking to strengthen their human rights due diligence in supplier countries and to engage stakeholders in that process. At this time, the perspectives and experience of BCWS and CENTRAL help identify what is needed to advance more worker-centered approaches. Three sets of lessons emerge about what is needed to sustain transnational supply chain advocacy movements. Firstly, movement-building and trust are vital ingredients in effective supply chain advocacy. Secondly, it is important for human rights due diligence processes to take into account risks to worker rights. Thirdly, strengthening worker voice in global supply chains requires more effective scrutiny and regulation of MNCs.
Topic:: Reform, Accountability, Industry, Labor Rights, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

479. The Postcolonial Vortex

Author:: Photis Lysandrou and Yvonne Lysandrou
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The subject of this paper is the contemporary postcolonial condition. Its central argument is that this condition is one of perpetual entrapment in circular motion as any progression registered by postcolonial countries by participating in the global capitalist system as independent states is continually offset by a backward-pulling regression arising out of their subordinate position in that system. This entrapment in 'proregression', to abbreviate the progression-regression nexus, is not in itself a new experience for postcolonial countries. What is new is the primary mechanism that perpetuates proregression: where in the previous eras of colonialism and neo-colonialism that primary mechanism rested on the force of authority, in the current postcolonial era it rests on the force of gravity. It is testimony to the strength of this force that even those emerging capitalist countries that have never been the subject of external control in the colonial era are now also caught in the predicament of proregression. However, the fact that the postcolonial countries have previous experience of proregression makes their present experience going forward even more acute. It is as if their history is caught in an endless series of overlapping cycles, as each mode of progression on a higher plane of development is countered by a mode of regression on an equivalent plane of development. In short, it is as if their whole history is caught in a vortex.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Political Theory, and Capitalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

480. Rethinking Monopoly as a Power Relation: The Shift from Market to Intellectual Monopoly

Author:: Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The critical literature on monopolies, from monopoly capital to recent contributions, focuses on the organization that concentrates either market power, capital or property rights. I complement this literature by conceptualizing monopolies as a power relation, which enables me to integrate different ways in which the term is used, from capitalists’ monopoly over the means of production to intellectual monopolization. As I explain here, some firms have developed greater capacities to systematically monopolize intangibles that are essential for organizing labour beyond their owned assets and for controlling demand. Coupled with institutional, political and technological changes, larger absorptive and management capacities to produce and capture knowledge and information resulted in firms’ technological differentiation. The systematic winners of the innovation race hold persistent intellectual monopolies while other firms become subordinate due to their lack of technical autonomy. From this perspective, (intellectual) monopoly power is essential for understanding the distribution of value in capitalism.
Topic:: Political Economy, Labor Issues, Capitalism, Monopoly, Capital, Power Relations, and Value Capture
Political Geography:: Global Focus

481. Sellers’ Inflation, Profits, and Conflict: Why Can Large Firms Hike Prices in an Emergency?

Author:: Isabella Weber and Evan Wasner
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bottlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings calls and compile firm-level data to derive a three-stage heuristic of the inflationary process: (1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes. (2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures. (3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage. We argue that such sellers’ inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions. Policy should aim to contain price hikes at the impulse stage to prevent inflation from the onset.
Topic:: Political Economy, Inflation, Profit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

482. How Does Globalisation Affect Social Cohesion?

Author:: Kasper Vrolijk
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper explores the effects of globalisation on social cohesion outcomes and the underlying mechanisms. A framework for reviewing the literature is offered, in which labour earnings, household expenditures and firm productivity are identified as the main channels through which economic globalisation affects cohesion, trust and pro-social behaviour. Evidence points towards substantial losses in cohesion following negative globalisation changes, altering cohesion through absolute and relative changes in employment and expenditure (and people’s perception thereof). However, evidence is thin and inconsistent; studies are limited to effects of trade (and not foreign direct investment), cover some dimensions of cohesion but not others, and often evaluate the effect of negative trade events on cohesion (while trade and foreign direct investment may offer gains to workers, households and firms, which boosts cohesion). From the available evidence, it is determined that when setting policy, it is important to address relative losses from globalisation (between groups), incorporate economic costs of social repercussions, and take on market distortions and underlying cyclical or secular trends that may amplify the effects of globalisation on cohesion.
Topic:: Globalization, Economy, Trade, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

483. (R)evolution? Exploring the Potential of Post-Development Approaches for Reforming Development Cooperation

Author:: Patrick Köllner
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The concept and mainstream approaches of development cooperation (DC) have been criticised since the early beginning of their existence. Post-development (PD) scholars have been criticising international DC since 1990 for both its Western perspective and the lack of reflection on asymmetrical power structures. Since also today DC has to face a variety of criticisms, we perceive PD approaches as a starting point for efforts towards change. We asked (1) to what extent and how elements of post-development approaches are reflected in the current policy initiatives of international DC, and (2) what potential do PD approaches have to reform DC. We analysed three examples: German feminist development policy (FemDP) as a relatively new idea of transformation, the locally led development approach as a long-standing concept and Global Public Investment (GPI) as an approach towards a new concept of international cooperation. By means of a content analysis, four commonly used PD elements were selected and slightly adapted to examine whether and how the three policy initiatives acknowledge PD aspects in order to reform DC: (1) the concept of alternatives to development, (2) pluralism of knowledge and power dynamics, (3) user-centred approaches and a critical stance towards the established scientific discourse and (4) the promotion of grassroots movements and local ownership. We discovered a variation in the use of the different PD elements. Although aspects related to power relations, post-colonial structures and knowledge management are prominent in all three initiatives, elements such as grassroots movements are given less consideration in all three cases. Even though FemDP does not focus on an alternative to development, as defined by PD approaches, it puts a strong emphasis on a transformative approach when it comes to its user-centred empowerment and tackles power imbalances by approaching decolonisation. Subsequently, the efforts of German Development Minister Svenja Schulze do not just describe a rhetorical reorientation but involve actual transformative efforts. However, further implementation efforts need to be analysed. The locally led development approach seems to be a suitable springboard for the inclusion of local knowledge and grassroots movements. Whereas the approach mostly uses descriptions of change as a means to reach its objectives, the GPI concept in particular uses PD elements as a reformative approach, as per the PD definition, putting the objective of the transformation of international public finance in international cooperation at its centre. Valuing PD approaches, we conclude that they do influence public initiatives in one way or another. In the future, if inner-systemic change should become an option, we see the greatest added value when PD scholars succeed in underpinning their approaches with instruments that can be used as tools in DC practice.
Topic:: Development, Public Investment, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Germany and Global Focus

484. Tax Expenditures in OECD Countries: Findings from the Global Tax Expenditures Database

Author:: Martin Beznoska
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Global Tax Expenditures Database (https://GTED.net/) collects national reports on tax expenditures for 101 countries for the period from 1990 to the present. Based on these data, the development of tax expenditures in the 38 OECD countries between 1999 and today is examined. A look at the data shows that even in countries with high GDP and comprehensive tax coverage, reporting is often incomplete. For a subset of 16 OECD countries for which (relatively) continuous reporting over the period is available, we look at the development of tax benefits for households and firms. We can show that data availability improves over time. For the development of business tax expenditures, a weakly significant positive trend can be identified in terms of tax revenues foregone, driven mainly by the Netherlands and Ireland. Both countries are known for wanting to strengthen their business location through generous tax expenditures for businesses. Tax expenditures for private households, which are on average higher than the level of tax expenditures for businesses in the countries under review, do not show any significant time trend, even though they were increasingly used to relieve the burden on private households and businesses during the financial crisis of 2008/09. In order to compare tax expenditures between countries and to better assess their effectiveness, regular reporting at the national level, transparent definitions and ideally uniform standards would be helpful. Regular monitoring by a commission of experts could contribute to the consistency and comparability.
Topic:: Development, Business, Tax Systems, and OECD
Political Geography:: Global Focus

485. U.S. and Global Approaches to Financing Long-Term Care: Understanding the Patchwork

Author:: Celli Horstman, Evan D. Gumas, and Gretchen Jacobson
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:: Most United States adults age 65 and older will need long-term care toward the end of their lives.1 Long-term care, provided in the home, community, or in institutional settings like a nursing home, includes medical care as well as personal, nonmedical care for people who are unable to perform activities of daily living, like cooking or bathing. Some services also may support social needs for those unable to perform what are known as instrumental activities of daily living, such as shopping or medication management. In 2018, more than 5 million people in the United States used home health care, including adult day care or home health agency services, and nearly 4 million people resided in nursing homes or residential care communities.2 Despite the widespread need for long-term care, the U.S. has no national program to cover the costs of long-term care. While certain states have implemented their own programs, the resulting patchwork of funding has left many Americans with no sustainable way to pay for the services they require. Other developed countries have comprehensive, national long-term care financing systems featuring broad eligibility and high levels of financial support. In this brief, we analyze data from multiple sources on long-term care costs in the U.S., as well as spending data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), to better understand long-term care financing strategies in 12 high-income countries. In addition to these data, we synthesized initiatives to long-term care funding in these 12 countries. (For details, see “How We Conducted This Study.”) Since the U.S. does not have a national funding strategy, we also focused on individual state approaches. International and U.S. state approaches may provide insights to policymakers seeking to advance comprehensive long-term care funding.
Topic:: Health, Health Care Policy, Inequality, and Social Services
Political Geography:: Global Focus

486. The Future of Neutrality

Author:: Pascal Lottaz
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Neutrality is a naturally occurring phenomenon. There have always been actors on the world stage that have remained outside the conflicts of others, be they countries, religious institutions or international organisations (IOs). Even during the two world wars and the first Cold War (i.e. the US and its allies versus the USSR and its allies), some actors managed to avoid the battlefields or claimed a position separate from the various alliance systems. Despite the beliefs of some commentators that neutrality is coming to an end, there is no indication that world politics is actually about to change dramatically enough to eradicate the reasons and logic for neutrality. In fact, the least conductive international environment for neutrality – unipolarity – seems to be ending. What could be called the “New Cold War” (the West-aligned countries versus Russia in Europe and versus China in Asia) and the emerging multipolar world will likely produce the dynamics leading to more neutrality as a counter-reaction to the new great power rivalry. We should expect neutrality and neutralism – i.e. political movements demanding the adoption of neutrality policies – to strengthen. Nevertheless, neutrality is shifting. It is moving from Europe to other regions of the world, and, in the process, will likely also change conceptually. This Policy Brief will first describe the nature of neutrality and the three basic motivations for actors to opt for its policies. It then discusses the challenges any neutrality policy faces and will conclude by providing concrete recommendations for policymakers seeking to maintain neutrality vis-à-vis either hot or cold conflicts.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Neutrality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

487. Using Targeted Sanctions to Help Prevent Mass Atrocities: Results from Interviews with Experienced Practitioners

Author:: Tallan Donine, Kyra Fox, Daniel Solomon, Alex Vandermaas-Peeler, and Lawerence Woocher
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The Simon-Skjodt Center’s “lessons learned” project aims to understand better how policy makers, across all levels of government, can take effective action to prevent mass atrocity crimes and protect civilian populations in situations where they face serious threats of group-targeted, systematic violence. We have sought to identify, distill, and organize insights on a range of policy tools—ranging from “naming and shaming” to sanctions to prosecutions—which are sometimes used to help prevent or respond to mass atrocities. To complement our review of the empirical research literature on the use of targeted sanctions, we conducted interviews with people who had substantial policy or operational experience working in the US government on targeted sanctions prior to 2021. The premise for the interviews is that experienced practitioners have important insights about when and how targeted sanctions can be most effective in helping prevent mass atrocities.3 While one can find many ideas about how to use targeted sanctions most effectively, none that we are aware of are: (1) focused specifically on the use of targeted sanctions for mass atrocity prevention and (2) based on the collective perspectives of a set of experienced practitioners. This report summarizes the results of the interviews with experienced targeted sanctions practitioners. Details on the methods employed and the interview respondents are presented in appendices.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Sanctions, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

488. Social Media Platforms, the Risks of Mass Atrocities, and Opportunities for Atrocity Prevention: 2023 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:: Tallan Donine
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: On January 19 and 24, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum brought together a diverse group of scholars, representatives of social media companies, practitioners, and policy makers for two 90-minute virtual convenings to discuss social media platforms, the risks of mass atrocities, and opportunities for atrocity prevention. Motivations for this seminar included (1) taking stock of knowledge about the relationship between social media, mass atrocities, and atrocity prevention; (2) generating new ideas for future research or practice on this topic; and (3) exploring how the Simon-Skjodt Center can play a constructive role in this area. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key observations raised during both discussions under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution and does not necessarily represent the views of all participants. The first session focused on exploring the interaction between social media platforms and risks of mass atrocities. Guiding questions included: • How might social media platforms contribute to risk factors associated with mass atrocities? • How might perpetrators use social media platforms to enact mass atrocities? • How might the relationship between social media platforms and mass atrocities change in the future? The second session focused on social media platforms and the prevention of mass atrocities. Guiding questions included: • How do technology firms and others understand the risks that social media platforms may inadvertently contribute to the commission of mass atrocities? • What steps have firms taken to date to address these risks? • What new or different actions can social media companies take to design and manage their platforms in ways that would help reduce risks of mass atrocities? • What type of regulation of social media platforms would most effectively balance interests in civil liberties and violence prevention?
Topic:: Genocide, Social Media, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

489. Social Media, Mass Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention: 2023 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:: Daniel Solomon and Tallan Donine
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: In 2018, anti-Muslim extremists in Sri Lanka organized a series of attacks against Muslim civilians throughout the country (Taub and Fisher 2018). Extremist leaders used a misleading viral video to stoke fears that the country’s Muslim minority was organizing a campaign to sterilize the majority Sinhalese population en masse. The video circulated widely on Facebook, and participants in the violence also set up private WhatsApp groups to coordinate the violence. This is just one example of a disturbing pattern that is increasingly under the spotlight: social media seeming to fuel violence, including large-scale and deliberate attacks on civilians based on their identity. These examples have become widespread in recent years, with attacks on the Rohingya community in Burma, the Muslim community in India, and multiple marginalized groups in Ethiopia and elsewhere following a similar trajectory. Influential users appeared to use social media in these cases to dehumanize their targets, recruit participants, and coordinate violence. Amid public outcry social media firms have begun to develop or revise some policies to limit the spread of harmful content. In the Sri Lanka case, Meta—which operates both Facebook and WhatsApp— acknowledged and apologized for the platforms’ role in the violence (Facebook 2020), issued a series of human rights impact assessments of its role, and stated it would implement policies to address associated human rights concerns from its products, with applications to other high-risk contexts (Sissons 2020). Across social media companies, responses to concerns about “offline harm” have largely focused on content moderation, modifying algorithms that promote different kinds of content, and restricting access to certain users. Many advocates argue that actions to date have not gone far enough, asserting that stronger action—including government regulation—is necessary to prevent social media from contributing to violence, including mass atrocities. Social media use will only continue to rise, especially in countries at high risk of new mass atrocities. Beyond select cases, however, there is insufficient research about the specific relationship between social media platforms and the onset and escalation of mass atrocities—or how social media companies and government actors might limit these platforms’ potential negative effects. The goal of this paper is to stimulate and frame discussion during the Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention about the relationship between social media technologies and the risk and prevention of mass atrocities. Based on a review of relevant research, policy documents, and public statements by social media companies, the paper surveys current knowledge and identifies important gaps in understanding about (1) how social media platforms have contributed to the risk and occurrence of mass atrocities in the past and how they might do so in the future;1 and (2) strategies to help prevent social media from fueling mass atrocities.
Topic:: Social Media, Facebook, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: India, Sri Lanka, and Global Focus

490. Catch-up and Leapfrog Strategies for Developing Countries: Making a Case for a Social Spring

Author:: Leonardo Paz Neves
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: There is an ongoing consensus that we are on the brink, if not already started, of a major technological revolution. The Fourth Industrial Revolution has a wider and deeper transformative power. It could be considered a major paradigm shift of our time. Its importance is characterized by a wave of innovation in many fields, yet it is not compartmentalized in silos of technological advancements and product innovation. Each of those breakthroughs ripples in many other spheres as productive, labor, social, economic, health, etc. And in every transition, every transformation, new opportunity arrives. In paradigm shifts like these, ‘Windows of Opportunity’ are opened. Perez and Soete (1988) studied the entry phase, which developing countries should use in their development strategies to catch-up with industrialized countries, arguing that from time to time, the entry barriers recede, creating a window of opportunity for those developing countries. Taking advantage of these windows of opportunity is fundamentally conditioned to the ‘social capability’ of these lagging countries (Abramovitz 1995). There is because, in the moments in which the edge based in tech experience is not a determinant factor and the entry barriers recede, latecomers have a better chance in catching-up. But, they will only be able to compete with the leading economies if certain social conditions are met. With fewer development pol-icy options, these countries will have to go be-yond the classic developmental approach to succeed in leapfrogging and take the lead. Thus, while forging their path towards devel-opment, developing countries should try to take their own past experience and reassess it from a different perspective.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economic Development, and Opportunity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

491. Covid-19 Crisis and Shifts in the Corporate Competitive Landscape: Comparisons with Previous Economic Crises

Author:: Sang-Ha Yoon, Yaein Baek, Wontae Han, Yoonsoo Lee, and Daisoon Kim
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In terms of economic fluctuations, it is well recognized that the effects of an economic crisis have a detrimental impact on the entry, growth, decline, and exit of firms. In addition, the magnitude of the impact varies both within and between industries depending on the size and other characteristics of the firm. The economy is going through significant changes due to the emergence of new industries and the decline or disappearance of current ones. This study looks at how big economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis have affected businesses and industries. After completing a study at several levels of top international corporations, larger domestic enterprises, and domestic small and medium-sized businesses, it attempts to draw policy implications. First, it is necessary to foster and support top-tier companies to defend against global economic fluctuations and strengthen international competitiveness. In particular, the institution in charge of competition policies domestically and the institution that helps companies improve their competitiveness are different and the focus of policies is distinctive, so comprehensive attention and perspective of policymakers are needed. Second, it is urgent to respond to new issues related to competition policy in the domestic market. The behavior of emerging big tech and platform companies is different from monopoly companies in the past, so consumer welfare is not impaired, but it burdens nearby and other market participants. Therefore, a view that deviates from the focus on monopoly pricing is also essential for competition policy. Third, measures to support global corporate growth and countermeasures against changes in the industrial landscape should be prepared. Investment and R&D expansion at the corporate level is essential for corporate growth, and measures are needed to boost investment in recently emerging intangible assets. In addition, it is important to revitalize the movement of economic resources to cope with changes in the inter-industry landscape accompanied by the crisis. Fourth, policies to revitalize start-ups and closures are required. The decline in new companies' market entry and exit rates is a symtom of an aging economy contributing to the overall decrease in productivity. Therefore, enhancing the revitalization of the corporate ecosystem and expanding the size of enterprises are essential to enhance the dynamics of the economy. Fifth, it is necessary to find an appropriate combination of government roles in times of crisis. In particular, it is important to grasp the detailed status of economic stabilization policies in relation to SMEs, and at the same time, clear judgments on the appropriate size of support measures, the period of support, and the timing of collection are urgently needed.
Topic:: Economics, COVID-19, Corporations, Economic Crisis, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

492. Analysis on the Determinants of Labor Share and Its Policy Implications

Author:: Yaein Baek, Minsoo Han, Wongi Kim, and Hyunsuk Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: There has been a significant decline in the global labor share, leading to numerous studies about the cause of this drop. The labor share is used as one of the main indicators of inequality because a decrease in the labor share can lead to aggravation of income inequality. This is because low-skilled workers can be greatly affected by such a decline in the labor share and the main source of in-come for the low-income class, including the self-employed, is labor income. Among various indicators of inequality, this study analyzes the determinants of the change in labor share. Technological changes such as adoption of robots, advancements in information and communications technology (ICT) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) are expected to change the labor market. Hence, this study analyzes the impact of technological changes on labor share and suggests policy responses.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

493. Using Risk Analysis to Shape Border Management: A Review of Approaches during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Kelley Lee, Julianne Piper, and Jennifer Fang
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The near universal adoption of travel measures by governments to control the spread of COVID-19 has proved controversial during the pandemic. National responses have been highly varied and frequently changing, and the use of travel measures—ranging from advisories and screening to quarantine, testing, immunity certification, and restrictions on entry—has been poorly coordinated across jurisdictions. Particularly in the early stages of the crisis, this created chaos for travelers and the travel sector, and caused significant economic and social harms. Many governments also failed to clearly communicate the rationale for using travel measures, the evidence underpinning them, and the measures’ role within overall pandemic response strategies. There is now substantial evidence that these measures’ early and stringent use by some governments during the initial stages of the pandemic slowed the importation of the virus and reduced its onward transmission. Yet, there is also growing recognition of weaknesses in the quality of evidence available to inform policy decisions. Evaluating the appropriateness of travel measures and applying them effectively during future public-health emergencies will depend on international consensus on methodologies that lead to a more harmonized and coordinated approach and to greater public trust in policy decisions. This report presents a comparative analysis of 11 publicly available methodologies used to assess travel-related risks during the pandemic—those of Hong Kong, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, World Health Organization, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and European Union. It offers a set of lessons learned and recommendations, including a proposed decision instrument that could improve the use of risk analysis for border management during future public-health emergencies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Organization, Governance, Border Control, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Global Focus, and United States of America

494. External Processing: A Tool to Expand Protection or Further Restrict Territorial Asylum?

Author:: Pauline de Oliveira and Nicholas Feith Tan
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Access to territorial asylum is under significant pressure in many corners of the world. Pushbacks at borders as well as pandemic-era mobility restrictions have prevented many asylum seekers from reaching their destinations. And new and ongoing crises, including those in Afghanistan and Ukraine, have highlighted the need to offer protection closer to where vulnerable populations live, and for high-income countries to find ways to share responsibilities with the low- and middle-income countries that host the overwhelming majority of people in need of international protection. This has led to renewed interest in external processing, which involves conducting part or all of the asylum procedure outside a destination country’s territory. Notably, even as countries such as Australia and the United Kingdom have adopted policies to offshore asylum processing to countries such as Papua New Guinea and Rwanda in hopes of deterring spontaneous arrivals, there is growing interest in using external processing in ways that complement existing territorial asylum and expand, rather than restrict, protection opportunities. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—highlights the opportunities that external processing offers as well as the challenges to its implementation and the risks it could pose to territorial asylum. It explores three categories of external processing policies implemented or proposed to date: humanitarian visas, emergency evacuations, and external processing centers. The report also identifies key conditions that must be present for external processing to occur in a protection-sensitive manner.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Refugees, Asylum, Visa, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Australia, Rwanda, Papua New Guinea, and Global Focus

495. POWER, NOT PEACE: THE ACHILLES’ HEEL OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES

Author:: Timothy D. Sisk
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: The row between International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over potential Russian and Belarussian athlete participation at Paris 2024 exposes the Achilles’ Heel of the Olympic Games: the peace-promising celebrations are inescapably ensnared in nation-state power politics. The IOC announced on January 25 a proposal to facilitate participation in the 2024 Olympic Games for individual athletes from Russia (and close ally Belarus) individually and neutrally in the Paris games. The statement reversed an IOC Executive Board decision from February 28, 2022, to impose more sweeping participation sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine invasion.
Topic:: Sports, Olympics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

496. Mitigating Global Fragmentation in Digital Trade Governance: A Case Study

Author:: Douglas Lippoldt
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Digital trade is growing rapidly, and regulators are trying to keep up. Concerns about privacy, consumer protection and national security demand regulatory attention, but too much regulation risks stifling digital trade. Current-generation trade agreements need to find the right balance between regulatory and liberal approaches to e-commerce. This paper looks at how five leading digital economies (Canada, the European Union, Japan, Singapore and the United States) are using regional trade agreements to address concerns while enhancing trade.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Governance, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

497. Building Trust in AI: A Landscape Analysis of Government AI Programs

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: As countries around the world expand their use of artificial intelligence (AI), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has developed the most comprehensive website on AI policy, the OECD.AI Policy Observatory. Although the website covers public policies on AI, the author of this paper found that many governments failed to evaluate or report on their AI initiatives. This lack of reporting is a missed opportunity for policy makers to learn from their programs (the author found that less than one percent of the programs listed on the OECD.AI website had been evaluated). In addition, the author found discrepancies between what governments said they were doing on the OECD.AI website and what they reported on their own websites. In some cases, there was no evidence of government actions; in other cases, links to government sites did not work. Evaluations of AI policies are important because they help governments demonstrate how they are building trust in both AI and AI governance and that policy makers are accountable to their fellow citizens.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Trust, and Trust-building
Political Geography:: Global Focus

498. Could a Global “Wicked Problems Agency” Incentivize Data Sharing?

Author:: Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Global data sharing could help solve “wicked” problems (problems such as climate change, terrorism and global poverty that no one knows how to solve without creating further problems). There is no one or best way to address wicked problems because they have many different causes and manifest in different contexts. By mixing vast troves of data, policy makers and researchers may find new insights and strategies to address these complex problems. National and international government agencies and large corporations generally control the use of such data, and the world has made little progress in encouraging cross-sectoral and international data sharing. This paper proposes a new international cloud-based organization, the "Wicked Problems Agency," to catalyze both data sharing and data analysis in the interest of mitigating wicked problems. This organization would work to prod societal entities — firms, individuals, civil society groups and governments — to share and analyze various types of data. The Wicked Problems Agency could provide a practical example of how data sharing can yield both economic and public good benefits.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Data, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

499. Why Does the Global Spyware Industry Continue to Thrive? Trends, Explanations, and Responses

Author:: Steven Feldstein and Brian (Chun Hey) Kot
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The global spyware and digital forensics industry continues to grow despite public backlash following an array of surveillance scandals, many linked to NSO Group’s Pegasus program. This paper explores the resilience of the commercial spyware market and offers ideas about how to limit the spread of invasive cyber surveillance tools. It highlights several factors driving the industry, including elevated demand for intrusion technology from government clients and private customers, as well as inconsistent political will from democratic governments to crack down on these technologies.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, Surveillance, Industry, Forensic Science, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

500. Phase-based Tactical Analysis of Online Operations

Author:: Ben Nimmo and Eric Hutchins
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The online threatscape in 2023 is characterized by an unprecedented variety of actors, types of operation, and threat response teams. Threat actors range from intelligence agencies and troll farms to child-abuse networks. Abuses range from hacking to scams, election interference to harassment. Responders include platform trust-and-safety teams, government agencies, open-source researchers, and others. As yet, these responding entities lack a shared model to analyze, describe, compare, and disrupt the tactics of malicious online operations. Yet the nature of online activity—assuming the targets are human—is such that there are significant commonalities between these abuse types: widely different actors may follow the same chain of steps. By conducting a phase-based analysis of different violations, it is possible to isolate the links in the chain within a unified model, where breaking any single link can disrupt at least part of the operation, and breaking many links—“completing the kill chain”—can disrupt it comprehensively. Using this model will allow investigators to analyze individual operations and identify the earliest moments at which they can be detected and disrupted. It will also enable them to compare multiple operations across a far wider range of threats than has been possible so far, to identify common patterns and weaknesses in the operation. Finally, it will allow different investigative teams across industry, civil society, and government to share and compare their insights into operations and threat actors according to a common taxonomy, giving each a better understanding of each threat and a better chance of detecting and disrupting it.
Topic:: Security, Internet, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:: Global Focus

« Previous
Next »
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
…
59
60

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS