Political Geography: Global Focus

151. Happy Election Year!

Author:: Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Billions of voters in 77 countries will go to the polls in 2024. Some of these elections will transform key nations’ foreign policies and might durably shape international relations. In many countries, though, elections are just a folding screen for authoritarian regimes. Even in advanced democracies, citizens’ disillusionment seems to give illiberalism a lifeline. The risk is also high that polls across the globe this year will be a ‘prime target’ for disinformation, ‘fake news’, conspiracy theory and cyber attacks.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

152. New global (dis)order – about a world that frightens us

Author:: Vedran Džihić
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: This report provides an analysis of the shifting global landscape characterized by the dissolution of the post-Cold War normality into a perpetual state of crisis. It examines the intertwining of emotional politics with power dynamics, the escalating competition between democracies and autocracies, and the looming dilemma between war and peace. The report underscores the rise of emotional narratives in shaping geopolitical tensions, the emergence of a bipolar world order between democracies and authoritarian regimes, and the existential threat posed by escalating conflicts. It concludes by urging for a renewed commitment to democratic values and concerted efforts to navigate the turbulent global landscape of 2024.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

153. The UN Summit of the Future (September 2024): Which opportunities for the OSCE?

Author:: Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The UN Summit of the Future, scheduled for 22-23 September 2024, brings together the United Nations' 193 member states under the theme “multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow.” Despite a sour mood in New York City against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza conflict, the Summit can act as a ‘reset’. The OSCE, which is “multilateralism in action”, should use the event and its aftermaths to promote its remarkable contribution as a ‘regional arrangement’ under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter and its thirty-year concrete co-operation with the UN. Both UNSG Guterres’s ‘New Agenda for Peace’ and the draft ‘Pact for the Future’, the two conceptual foundations of the forthcoming Summit, resonate well with the OSCE’s concept of comprehensive security. By taking proactive steps in that framework, the Vienna Organization can enhance its role and effectiveness in the evolving international system. This paper’s ten recommendations include: the adoption of a Ministerial Declaration at the December 2024 Council, taking advantage of Malta’s current 'double-hatted’ status – OSCE Chair and non-permanent member of the UN Security Council -; the continuation of the joint OSCE-UN preparation in view of future opportunities in Ukraine, leveraging the SMM’s experience and lessons learned including the use of advanced monitoring technologies; the establishment of the OSCE as a ‘regional hub’ for climate change, building on Guterres’s call to address the interlinkages between climate, peace and insecurity as a “political priority”; and the increased involvement of the OSCE’s Mediterranean and Asian partners for co-operation which offer gateways to the ‘broader world’.
Topic:: United Nations, Multilateralism, OSCE, and Future
Political Geography:: Global Focus

154. Leveraging Charging Strategies to Reduce Grid Impacts of Electric Vehicles

Author:: Christine Gschwendtner
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Electric vehicles (EVs) can challenge or support electricity systems depending on how they are charged. Uncontrolled charging may strain electricity systems, e.g., by increasing peak demand in the evening,1 which may require cost- and emission-intensive infrastructure investments, such as grid reinforcements and peak generation capacity. In contrast, controlled charging can benefit electricity systems by providing flexibility,2 e.g., by shifting charging demand away from evening hours. Controlled charging that combines technical solutions with heterogenous EV user behaviors, supported by charging infrastructure at diverse locations, e.g., at work during midday, and incentives, can reduce peak demand to avoid grid constraints and support the integration of renewable energy.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: Global Focus

155. Sodium: An Alternative to the "White Gold" of the Energy Transition?

Author:: Nicola De Blasio
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: As the world transitions towards low-carbon energy systems, scaling up clean energy technologies will drive demand for critical minerals and metals, such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. Stakeholders in the private and public sectors must work together to implement effective and efficient strategies, policies, and regulations to ensure that supplies are secure, reliable, sustainable, and equitable. Over the past years, the price volatility of minerals and metals has increased due to rising demand, supply chain disruptions, and concerns about tightening supplies. In addition, today’s markets are highly concentrated in a small number of countries. Although supply diversification investments are increasing, most near-term growth is expected from existing major producers, resulting in an even higher geopolitical risk.1 The transportation sector offers a stark example of these dynamics. Every year, the world increasingly relies on batteries. In 2022, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for about 10 percent of global vehicle sales and are expected to reach 35 percent by the decade’s end.2 Announced policies around the world are accelerating these trends. For example, recent climate legislation in the United States is deploying billions into battery manufacturing and incentives for EV purchases.3 Lithium-ion batteries, a technology also used in computers and cell phones, power most EVs today. Typical of innovation cycles, years of development and deployment have resulted in significant cost reductions and improved performances. Today’s EVs are becoming increasingly competitive with internal combustion vehicles and can be driven for hundreds of kilometers between charges. Lithium is used in EVs because it is lightweight, has high energy densities, is relatively low maintenance, and can be repeatedly charged. From a market and geopolitical perspective, analysts estimate that lithium demand will increase tenfold before the end of this decade.4,5 In 2021, China dominated lithium global markets with 79 percent of all lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity; this figure is expected to decrease slightly to around 65 percent by 2025 (see Figure 1).
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Lithium, Batteries, Electric Vehicles, Energy Transition, and Sodium
Political Geography:: Global Focus

156. How Multimodal AI Could Retool Global Crisis Response

Author:: Ben Ellencweig, Jessica Lamb, Jon Spaner, and Mihir Mysore
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Imagine this future scenario: as a hurricane develops, both its intensity and the timing of landfall are recalculated every hour on desktop-grade computers. The nature of the impact, including noncorrelated crises that may occur and second-order effects of the hurricane, are modeled through multiple scenarios on city-scale digital twins that have property-level granularity. The output of these simulations results in a clear set of trigger-based action plans that are tailored, verified through human-in-the-loop mechanisms, and sent to emergency responders, community leaders, government agencies, and potentially even residents in affected areas. Community leaders have access to tools that allow them to understand what to expect, what resources to leverage, and what actions may make the most difference. Homeowners receive targeted suggestions of how to protect their assets, avoid falling victim to fraud, and navigate post-disaster support. Disinformation campaigns get countered by fact-based automated outreach.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Crisis Management, Artificial Intelligence, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

157. Locally-led climate change adaptation works: Here are eight ways to support it

Author:: Claire Bedelian, Judith Mulwa, Beatrice Sumari, and Peter Rogers
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Locally-led adaptation (LLA) is a framework of key principles for how to support communities in adapting to climate change. This policy brief looks at a study of six LLA water-related projects in Kenya and Tanzania to explore how donors, governments and civil society actors can best support the approach.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Water, Governance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

158. Non-state armed groups in the sky

Author:: Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The proliferation of inexpensive and user-friendly, civilian-grade drones represents an escalating security concern for states. Currently, over 65 non-state actors are known to possess drones, and the unregulated nature of drone usage suggests that this number will continue to rise unchecked.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:: Global Focus

159. Bridging the gap in climate change financing to violent conflict affected areas

Author:: Justine Chambers and Helene Maria Kyed
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Countries affected by violent conflict are among the most vulnerable to climate change yet receive an extremely low share of global climate financing. This is despite the fact that most UN member states now recognise the interlinkages between climate change and violent conflict. The UN’s New Agenda for Peace also highlights ‘climate, peace and security’ as a crucial policy area. Upgrading climate change support to vulnerable populations in violent conflict-affected areas necessitates substantial changes to global climate financing. This is supported by the COP28 declaration on “Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace”, signed by 91 UN member states, including Denmark, which also calls for enhanced conflict-sensitivity and more funds for local organisations.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Conflict, Instability, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

160. War volunteers in the digital age: How new technologies transform conflict dynamics

Author:: Jethro Norman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Citizens traveling to participate in foreign wars have long posed significant challenges for states. The advent of smartphones and global connectivity has added new layers of complexity to this issue. With a particular focus on the conflict in Ukraine, this brief explores how digital technologies are reshaping the landscape of foreign participation in warfare.
Topic:: Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, Digital Technologies, and Volunteers
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Global Focus

161. Essential concepts must be contested

Author:: Felix Berenskötter and Stefano Guzzini
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: In this forthcoming chapter for the newest Handbook of International Relations, edited by Cameron Thies, and to appear with Edwards Elgar Publ., Felix Berenskötter and Stefano Guzzini provide a methodology for how to use concept analysis for theoretical and political critique. 'Contested essential concepts' discusses the nature of concepts and of different forms of theoretical contestation, namely (1) contesting often tacit assumptions in political and normative theorizations, (2) contextualizing (and 'provincializing') the formulation of ideal-types in empirical theorizations, and (3) problematizing the use of concepts in political practice. The paper concludes by showing that meaningful contestation requires a capacity of translation.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

162. The role of artificial intelligence in modern warfare

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The use of artificial intelligence technologies in various armed conflict arenas, such as the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israeli war in Gaza, has sparked numerous discussions about their nature, risks to international and regional security, and the sustainability of the conflict. These experiments have shown that weapons supported by artificial intelligence can be more accurate than those directed by humans, which can potentially reduce collateral damage, including civilian casualties, damage to residential areas, and the number of soldiers killed or injured. However, it also raises concerns about the possibility of committing disastrous mistakes.
Topic:: Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, 2023 Gaza War, and Warfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

163. Why has the Global Demand for Uranium Increased Recently?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: As the world transitions to electricity to combat climate change, nuclear energy is poised to become an increasingly vital component of the global energy mix. New nuclear power projects have recently reached unprecedented levels, with more than 20 countries pledging to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050. China alone plans to construct at least 150 new reactors in the next 15 years, investing over USD 440 billion. India has also announced ambitious plans to increase its nuclear capacity from 6,780 megawatts to 22,480 megawatts by 2031. This surge in nuclear energy development persists despite several factors complicating the rise of uranium as a coveted metal. Chief among these are: the significant and steady decline in investment in uranium exploration and mine development over the past decade, particularly following the Fukushima incident in 2011; governments' focus on solar and wind energy; and the recent Western sanctions imposed on Russia, which have complicated the process of importing Russian uranium (especially with a complete ban on imports to the United States). Additionally, high inflation and interest rates have led to increased costs for new and existing uranium mining projects. Furthermore, conflicts in Niger have resulted in the loss of 5% of the world's uranium supply, representing more than 24% of the European Union's uranium imports.
Topic:: Climate Change, Uranium, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

164. The Role of Multilateral Development Banks in Financing Energy Transition in South America

Author:: Maria Elena Rodriguez, Rafaela Mello Rodrigues de Sá, Octávio Henrique Alves Costa de Oliveira, and Renan Guimarães Canellas de Oliveira
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: BRICS Policy Center
Abstract:: With the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world institutionalized the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2ºC, based on efforts to adapt to and mitigate climate change. It is in this context that the actors involved presented their commitments to establish policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions in different sectors of the economy. This process of reducing emissions can be called decarbonization and consists of replacing fossil energy sources with clean renewables, in addition to encouraging the use of electrification technology, such as electric cars. This movement promotes transformation toward a low-carbon economy in various sectors. In the energy sector, this transformation is called the clean energy transition, as it attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the energy matrix. For this to happen, increasing the use of renewables over using fossil fuels such as coal and oil is encouraged.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Finance, Multilateralism, Paris Agreement, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

165. Dynamics and Mechanisms of Reproduction of the Ideology of Consumerism by Transnational Data Firms

Author:: Stéfano Mariotto de Moura
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Through the literature review method, this research identifies a non-exhaustive series of dynamics and mechanisms used by data companies such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, and also by the group of companies known as ‘data brokers’, for the reproduction of the ideology of consumerism. A definition for such ideology is also presented. Five dynamics and 17 mechanisms are described within these two categories. The combination of subsets of elements in the second categorization gives rise to the first. The research question addressed here is: how do transnational data companies act in the international reproduction of the ideology of consumerism? It is argued that they take advantage of a deliberate lack of interest, mainly state interest, in regulating how they operate in the International Political Economy, to capture data through general dynamics that result from the articulation of specific data capture mechanisms. Thus, these companies manage to naturalise, ideologically, the act of consuming. The general dynamics identified by the paper were five: personalisation, web concentration, architecture of choice, infrastructural imperialism, and lock-in. The phenomenon is discussed in the light of the Critical Theory of International Relations
Topic:: International Political Economy, Ideology, Consumerism, Critical Theory, and Data Firms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

166. The Politics of Inclusion in Peace Negotiations

Author:: Isa Mendes
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The article analyses the notion of societal inclusion in peace negotiations, a subject that has gained increasing importance in politics, policy, norm, and scholarship over the last few decades. It argues that inclusion has gone from being considered an unnecessary disturbance to a necessary one in peace processes, especially due to its growing association with the fostering of political legitimacy and peace sustainability. Reducing inclusion to its usefulness, however, obscures its fundamentally political nature and implications. The article thus tracks and unpacks the discussion on societal inclusion, drawing in particular from Chantal Mouffe’s reading of political agonism and the more recent literature about agonistic peace. Ultimately, it argues that instrumentalizing and depoliticizing political inclusion is hurtful for the democratic safeguarding of previously denied rights and counter-productive even for minimal legitimizing ends. Peacebuilding benefits from agonistic standpoints of analysis by introducing, from the negotiation stage, a political model of engagement that allows in conflict by peacefully tackling it instead of sweeping it under the rug.
Topic:: Conflict, Negotiation, Inclusion, Local Peace Committees, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Global Focus

167. Metaphoricizing Modernity

Author:: Nicholas Onuf
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: We of the modern world tell stories about being modern, becoming modern. We ask where modernity is going. Two metaphorical complexes dominate these stories: We favour metaphors of life and growth; modernity has a life of its own. Or we prefer metaphors of motion and direction; modernity is a journey that takes many paths. The two complexes coexist uneasily even as they feed on each other; together they mark the modern conceit that modernity has left tradition behind. Those whom modern society has victimized, uprooted or abandoned may resist both complexes, often seeking to retrieve the metaphors of a lost, broken, misremembered or invented past. Most beneficiaries of modernity favour the metaphorical complex of life and growth—or merely take it for granted. Scholars with a critical attitude toward modernity often favour many paths and thus the metaphorical complex of motion and direction—without realizing it. Seven metaphors reveal these tendencies: boundary, break, juncture, limit, rupture, stage, transition. They also hint at a third, distinctively modern metaphorical complex. In our stories about modernity, we deploy plural versions of spatial metaphors sequenced in time: frames, boxes, compartments, or containers, and mark the sequence with metaphorical signposts: age, stage, wave, or period.
Topic:: Transition, Modernity, Metaphors, Boundary, Break, Juncture, Limit, Rupture, and Stage
Political Geography:: Global Focus

168. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part I—Dangerous Beginnings, Peripheral (Re)Beginnings: A Reconfiguration of Nick Onuf’s Constructivism

Author:: Victor Coutinho Lage
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: Nick Onuf’s constructivism is one of the most important contributions to the field of international relations in what regards the interchange between social and political theories, and philosophy. In this text, I engage with Onuf’s body of work taken as a whole. The guiding thread of the problematization I propose is woven through the attention to how Onuf’s craft and creative undertaking sets certain beginnings in the construction of his framework, and how setting them has important implications for (the conception of) ‘politics’. I would argue that Onuf’s conception of politics is sustained on two central beginnings: the conception of humans as ‘rational agents’ and the framing of what has come to be called ‘modernity’. This way, I emphasize what seems to me the most enduring contribution his body of work can provide not only to the field of international relations, but also to contemporary social and political theories more generally. The first section outlines the relation Onuf establishes between rules and rule, while the following two sections deal, in turn, with his conceptions of ‘agency’ and the ‘modern world’. My goal in these first three sections is to reconfigure Onuf’s constructivism. The fourth and final section moves ahead, giving a step further – perhaps too far, perhaps too radical –, paving a critical engagement with his work through peripheral (re)begininngs.
Topic:: Politics, Constructivism, Rationality, Modernity, and Periphery
Political Geography:: Global Focus

169. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part III–Reconfiguration of Modernity and/as Metaphor(s)

Author:: Michael Marks and Nicholas Onuf
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: In this Dossier, four scholars reflect on Nicholas Onuf’s leading article, ‘Metaphoricizing modernity’, (re)engaging with – and celebrating – more broadly Onuf’s groundbreaking work from different places, perspectives, and angles. Part III (re)engages with (his) reconfigurations of Modernity and/as metaphor(s), including an extensive, and much careful response from Onuf to those four scholars and their (re)readings published in this Dossier: Celebrating Nicholas Onuf. Michael Marks is the fourth scholar to engage with and reflect on Onuf’s leading article, and his work more broadly. Marks reads Onuf’s essay on metaphoricising modernity as an invitation to see modernity in terms of its metaphorical qualities; that is, as an opportunity to reflect not only on modernity, but on the nature of metaphors and how they figure in scholarly inquiry. More specifically, for him, Onuf’s characterization of modernity as embodying notions of forward motion and territorial physicality is one of the main insights of his essay that could be further explored with additional theoretical analysis. Nicholas Onuf closes this Part and the Dossier more broadly, carefully engaging with and responding to the contributions of Victor Coutinho Lage (in Part I), Manuela Trindade Viana (in Part II), Roberto Vilchez Yamato (in Part II), and Michael Marks (in Part III). Rethinking reconfiguration as a general, constitutive process, Onuf (re)engages with modernization and modernity’s universal ethos, while responding to his postcolonial critics and their (re)readings of his highly generalized model of world-making. In so doing, Onuf also (re)engages with the concept and conceptualization of metaphors, repositioning his work and stance as a form of ‘embodied anti-realism’. For him, old ontologies never die; like metaphors, they just layer up.
Topic:: Modernity, Metaphors, Concepts, and Beginnings
Political Geography:: Global Focus

170. The Chain of Harm: Designing Evidence-based, Locally Led Information Integrity Programming

Author:: Lisa Reppell and Brittany Hamzy
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: The Chain of Harm is a framework that breaks down the challenges of disinformation, misinformation, and dangerous speech (DMDS) into five interrelated stages (actor, message, mode of dissemination, interpreter, and risk). Each stage describes a discrete intervention point to disrupt the ultimate manifestation of harm. This five-stage approach supports the design of multi-layered programming that more effectively promotes healthy information environments around moments of critical social and civic importance, with particular emphasis on designing programming that is responsive to the different experiences of diverse populations.
Topic:: Elections, Cybersecurity, Disinformation, and Misinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

171. Understanding and Interrupting Authoritarian Collaboration

Author:: Christina Cottiero and Cassandra Emmons
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: For many decades, autocrats have been considered less cooperative than democrats in international politics. While researchers endeavored to learn how international democratic practices spread through political, economic, and social networks, little attention was paid to autocratic collaboration tendencies. However, growing bodies of evidence from human rights and democracy support to international security and international development demonstrate that authoritarian regimes are collaborating through formal organizations and informal channels to stabilize or entrench their rule, disrupt democratic civil society, and even extend the reach of repressive institutions beyond state boundaries. Autocrats face common threats, including: pro-democracy groups and dissenters at home; stigmatization and illegitimacy of their authoritarian governance tactics abroad; conditionalities on critically needed aid or loans that prioritize democratic governance structures and policies; and evolving and increased security threats. In response, authoritarian regimes are sharing information; working to legitimate (or de-stigmatize) repressive practices; supporting one another as they weather shocks and crises resulting from international integration (economic or political); and even lending resources for co-opting and managing critical constituencies. These and other tactics allow them to entrench authoritarian practices. To enable the democracy support community to effectively bolster democratic resilience in the face of growing authoritarianism, we must better understand these practices. This paper provides an overview of modern authoritarian collaboration, analyzing its purposes and methods. It goes on to consider implications for international order and suggests that democracy defenders challenge pernicious authoritarian collaboration, for instance by leveraging their own transnational networks to disrupt authoritarian collaboration on surveillance and repression; provide compelling counter-narratives and debunk disinformation through effective civic education campaigns; and international standard setting and rule enforcement that cuts off authoritarian actors from financial and other resources.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Resilience, Collaboration, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

172. Trust and Remuneration for Elected Representatives

Author:: Cassandra Emmons, Jordan Shipley, and Silja Paasilinna
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: The rise of the Aragalaya (“The Struggle” in Sinhala) protest movement in Sri Lanka, triggered by the government’s defaulting on its debts in April 2022, highlighted the public’s belief that some of its elected officials are untrustworthy and corrupt. Demand for reforms is high; a supermajority of survey respondents in Sri Lanka in 2023 agreed that enforcing anti-corruption mechanisms equally across political parties (76 percent) and having an impartial judiciary (79 percent) and strong institutions with politically neutral or independent structures (72 percent) would increase their confidence in elected officials. Similar dissatisfaction with elected representatives and demand for reform and accountability can be observed in many countries that have been reeling from overall dissatisfaction with and, in some places, abandonment of, democracy. In hopes of building more resilient democracies that are bolstered by democratic trust, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) undertook this research project. It compares the formal and informal remuneration that elected officials receive in Ecuador, Nepal, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka. This comparative research identifies 16 categories of benefits given to and restrictions placed on elected officials. These serve as a menu of options for others. The research also uncovers two ongoing challenges in rebuilding trust in elected officials via remuneration reform: constituents’ perceptions that officials receive more financial compensation than they actually do, and officials’ receipt of informal benefits. This research leads us to make five recommendations to countries considering remuneration reform or reflecting on their current practices: Ensure reasonable remuneration that is responsive to economic and other pressures. Keep the public informed about remuneration practices and, importantly, any changes to them. Require asset and income disclosure to increase transparency around officials’ earnings. Limit benefits extended to officials’ family members and prohibit nepotism. Limit unnecessary international travel and manage perceptions of abuse. Countries that strive to incorporate these reforms into their legal frameworks or common practices may help build a virtuous cycle of remuneration for and earned trust in elected officials. Improved trust may ultimately contribute to stronger, more resilient democracies.
Topic:: Corruption, Reform, Elections, Accountability, and Remuneration
Political Geography:: South Asia, Sri Lanka, and Global Focus

173. Great Powers, Climate Change, and Global Environmental Responsibilities

Author:: Sezen Kaya-Sönmez
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The increasing deleterious effects of climate change have led to the emergence of multilateral environmental regimes and different understandings of responsibilities. Great Powers, Climate Change, and Global Environmental Responsibilities, edited by Robert Falkner and Barry Buzan, is an excellent book covering case-based examples of special environmental responsibilities. It aims to close the gap between International Relations (IR) theories on great powers and Global Environmental Politics (GEP) to illuminate the definition of environmental great power, differences in global environmental responsibilities, and the role of great powers regarding global environmental issues, particularly climate change. Buzan and Falkner argue that climate change is a global threat to international society that requires great powers to assume special responsibilities. Hence, this book seeks to bring together IR approaches to the study of great power and Great Power Management (GPM) to explain how great powers acquire legitimacy to justify their unequal status by accepting special rights and responsibilities as an institution of international society and how GEP perspectives shape the roles played by major powers (p. 6). The research questions of this study are as follows: (1) What are the features of environmental great powers? (2) Do environmental powers accept special responsibilities to combat climate change that correspond with their positions in global environmental politics? and (3) Have great powers securitized climate change, that is have they evaluated it as an issue that is related to maintaining international order and conserving stability in international society? The main argument of the book is that great powers have not developed a common understanding of their environmental responsibilities because they do not evaluate climate change as a systemic threat to the international system. Furthermore, whether it is a developed or developing country, the interests of great powers have blocked the securitization of environmental issues.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

174. Political Challenges and Current Threats of Internet Fragmentation

Author:: Vladimer Svanadze
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The positive process of rapid development of the Internet and Internet technologies is accompanied by certain risks that pose a threat to the unity and security of the global Internet network, its stability and sustainable growth. Although the unity, security, and stable development of the global Internet are important issues acknowledged by countries within the United Nations framework, some nations persist in creating a national-level Internet policy. This policy aims to control both domestic and external users of the Internet space, seeking to gain an advantage at the international level in using the Internet space as a tool of enforcement. This approach contributes to the fragmentation of the Internet into distinct parts, posing obstacles to its unity and stability. The article aims to demonstrate the political influence of individual countries on Internet fragmentation and, consequently, the potential threats such fragmentation poses to the unity, security, and stable development of the global Internet. To begin, when addressing the unity, security, and stability of the global Internet network, it is essential to reference the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) convened by the Secretary-General of the United Nations. This forum was preceded by the adoption of the Tunis Agenda for the Information Society in 2005, which played a pivotal role in shaping the discourse. The agenda notably defined the term “Internet governance” and acknowledged the collaborative involvement of stakeholders in various capacities. Specifically, the Tunis Agenda for the Information Society states, “Internet governance is the development and application by governments, the private sector, and civil society of their roles, common principles, norms, rules, decision-making procedures, and programs that shape the evolution and use of the Internet” (Tunis Agenda for the Information Society, 2005).
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Governance, and Internet
Political Geography:: Global Focus

175. Engaging Gender Equality in the Economic-Productive Sphere

Author:: Beatriz Muriel and Daniel Romero
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:: This study reviews the conceptual framework of the economic-productive sphere and of gender equality, the aim of which is to establish theoretical-practical lines allowing progress in engaging these two spheres. In this context, equality in opportunities and in rights can be harmonized, though equality of “responsibilities, resources and retribution” by gender are more difficult to reconcile. Also, women’s (economic) empowerment – seen as a way of promoting gender equality – possesses a degree of relation with the theory of growth and wellbeing when an individual has the role of consumer, for which “capabilities” are needed for selecting valuable “functionings”. However, when such a woman takes on the role of worker, producer or businesswoman, her seeking of a high level of economic-productive performance does not imply that she is empowered, nor does the latter imply the former; though there may be a positive correlation between the two. On this basis, economic-productive interventions may harmonize with equality of opportunities by gender.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Equality, Empowerment, Gender, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: Global Focus

176. Solving the Double Climate Migration Paradox

Author:: Kira Vinke and Mechthild Becker
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Human interference with the environment is fundamentally – and rapidly – reshaping geographies. Therefore, the question of where people will be able to live in safety and prosperity needs reconciling with these diametrically opposed trends: the continued use of fossil fuels, migration deterrence, and labor shortages. PDF Cover of PDF version of DGAP Commentary No. 4 application/pdf206.84 KB Share Discourses on migration and asylum-related issues have become increasingly contested in Western democracies. Anti-migrant rhetoric continues to gain momentum, particularly ahead of elections. This trend could be observed around the 2024 European elections when voters throughout the EU made migration a top priority in their decision-making. Similarly, in the United States, immigration on the southern border has become a deeply contested issue in the upcoming presidential election. “The migrant” has arguably become the scapegoat for economic and social problems in contemporary politics. The UK’s norm-defeating and dysfunctional asylum deal with Rwanda, now terminated, is just one example of how politics feeds such discriminatory narratives. While migration issues have received extensive media coverage and become increasingly politicized, a growing driver of migration has slipped down the list of political priorities: climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Economy, Migration Policy, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:: Global Focus

177. Can Multinationals Withstand Growing Trade Barriers?

Author:: Mahdi Ghodsi, Michael Landesmann, and Nina Vujanović
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are increasingly dealing with challenges shaped by the new geopolitical and trade environments. Besides traditional tariffs, exporting firms need to comply with regulatory non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the form of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. Although trade costs associated with these policy measures affect all firms, implications could be multifaceted for multinationals that base their international activities on exporting and importing and are important for the formation of global supply chains. Applying Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood to the unique Orbis dataset of firms on multinational subsidiaries, we show that NTMs pose a greater challenge to MNEs’ subsidiaries’ activity and performance than tariffs do. High-tech manufacturing subsidiaries of foreign MNEs are particularly vulnerable to these NTMs, as they suffer higher regulatory losses. However, multinational affiliates that have higher productivity, those with full foreign ownership representation, those that are embedded within a larger international network of subsidiaries, and those that are located in trading partners with deep preferential trade agreements can turn these trade challenges to their advantage. Our results have important implications for policy makers regulating trade in goods.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, Tariffs, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

178. Assessing the Impact of New Technologies on Wages and Labour Income Shares

Author:: Antea Barišić, Mahdi Ghodsi, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper advances the literature on the impacts of new technologies on labour markets, focusing on wage and labour income shares. Using a dataset from 32 countries and 38 industries, we analyse the effects of new technologies – proxied by patents, information and communication technology (ICT) capital usage, and robot intensity – on average wages and labour income shares over time. Our results indicate a positive correlation between patents and wage levels along with a minor negative impact on labour income shares, suggesting that technology rents are not fully passed on to labour. Robot intensity is positively associated with labour income shares, while ICT capital has an insignificant effect. These effects persist over time and are reinforced by global value chain (GVC) linkages. Our conclusions align with recent research indicating that new technologies have a generally limited impact on wages and labour income shares.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Investment, Global Value Chains, Robotics, and Income
Political Geography:: Global Focus

179. Technological Push and Pull Factors of Bilateral Migration

Author:: Antea Barišić, Mahdi Ghodsi, and Michael Landesmann
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper explores the complex interplay between technology adoption, specifically robotisation and digitalisation, and international migration within the EU and other advanced economies, including Australia, the UK, Japan, Norway and the US, over the period 2001-2019. Utilising a gravity model approach grounded in neoclassical migration theory, the study analyses how technological advancements influence migration flows. It examines two key technological variables: the extent of digitalisation, represented by ICT capital per person employed, and the adoption of industrial robots, measured by the stock of robots per thousand workers. The research uniquely integrates these technological factors into migration analysis, considering both push and pull effects. Additionally, it accounts for various other migration determinants such as macroeconomic conditions, demography and policy factors. The findings reveal insightful dynamics about the relationships between technological progress, labour market conditions and migration patterns, contributing significantly to the current literature and informing future migration policies and the impact of technology adoption.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, Innovation, Robotics, Migrant Workers, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

180. Working from Home and Mental Well-being in the EU at Different Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Gendered Look at Key Mediators

Author:: Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper analyses the relationship between working from home (WFH) and mental well-being at different stages during the first two critical years of the COVID-19 pandemic, when governments repeatedly imposed lockdowns and enacted WFH mandates to contain the spread of the virus. Using data from a representative survey conducted at four different time periods in 2020 (first lockdown, subsequent gradual reopening), 2021 (further lockdown) and 2022 (restrictions widely lifted) in the 27 EU member states, it examines the potentially changing role of several mediators over time, such as work-family conflict, family-work conflict, stability, resilience, isolation, the importance of different support networks, workload, physical risk of contracting COVID-19 at work, and housing conditions. For the first lockdown, it also differentiates by previous WFH experience, in terms of WFH novices and experienced WFH workers. It differentiates by gender, in order to take the potential gendered nature and effect of COVID-19 measures into account. The results show that while there was no direct relationship between WFH and mental well-being, there are several important mediators whose relevance was specific not only to certain stages of the pandemic, but also to previous experience with WFH and gender. Stability is the only mediator that was relevant over the entire two-year pandemic period. Work-family conflict and family-work conflict were only relevant during the first lockdown, while resilience and isolation mattered especially when most of the EU economies had lifted most of their restrictions. Unlike established WFH workers, WFH novices had an advantage during the first lockdown, benefiting from lower family-work conflict and more helpful networks of family and friends. Moreover, our results differ by gender: for females who undertook WFH, important mediators were work-family conflict and family-work conflict. Both were related to adjustments they had to make in work and non-work hours in response to the enforced closure of schools and childcare facilities during the lockdowns, especially during the first. For males who undertook WFH, especially WFH novices, support from networks of family and friends was an important mediator.
Topic:: Labor Issues, European Union, Mental Health, COVID-19, Well-Being, and Working from Home
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

181. Private Finance and the Quest to Remake Modern Warfare

Author:: Michael Brenes and William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Official Washington is all in on promoting a new type of warfare based on military applications of AI and other emerging technologies. This determination was on full display last year when the Biden administration unveiled the “Replicator” initiative, an attempt to develop swarms of high-tech weapons systems at relatively low cost, and in numbers capable of overwhelming any potential adversary. But the history of so-called miracle weapons offers ample reasons to doubt Replicator’s supposedly transformative potential. Previous innovations, from the “electronic battlefield” in Vietnam to drone warfare in the Global War on Terrorism, did not, in fact, revolutionize war as we know it. Cutting-edge technology is no substitute for sound strategy or a realistic assessment of what military force can achieve. Unfortunately, so far, at least, these lessons from history have been no match for the boosterism of venture capital (VC) firms that pride themselves on disrupting industries and overturning conventional wisdom. While estimates of total VC funding of emerging military technology vary widely, it is clear that private investments in emerging weapons technologies are large and growing, driven by a handful of major Silicon Valley players, including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Andreessen-Horowitz. Companies backed by these firms, including Palantir, Anduril, and SpaceX, have already landed major contracts for weapons systems that incorporate next-generation technology. These firms and their allies in the Pentagon and Congress are determined to move full speed ahead on the development and deployment of weapons based on AI and other technological innovations, despite many unanswered questions about the costs and risks involved. While the bulk of Pentagon funding still goes to the “big five” contractors — Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon), Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman — VC-backed startups aspire to become the future of military contracting, and they hope that AI and other emerging technologies will be their ticket. These startups may prove to be more nimble and innovative than the bloated, top-heavy firms that currently dominate the arms industry, but they should not be allowed to operate with impunity. Congress must establish ground rules that prevent military startups from exploiting the procurement process in ways that pad their bottom lines while providing flawed systems — outcomes that we have seen all too often from their traditional rivals. What is most important, the rush to profit from emerging military tech cannot be allowed to short-circuit the careful scrutiny and wide-ranging public debate that must precede any move toward a brave new world of autonomous warfare in which human intervention in the kill chain is significantly reduced, if not eliminated. This brief offers policymakers a framework for ensuring that unsupported promises to “reinvent” warfare don’t exacerbate the cycle of corruption and waste that has all too often plagued the Pentagon’s procurement process, to the detriment of our safety and security.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Finance, Grand Strategy, and Warfare
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

182. Responsibly Demilitarizing U.S.–Mexico Bilateral Security Relations

Author:: Aileen Teague
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: These are trying times for U.S.–Mexico relations. As America’s opioid epidemic reaches unprecedented proportions, U.S. politicians have begun to advocate unilateral military action against Mexican drug cartels in sovereign Mexican territory. This approach would not only do extraordinary damage to one of America’s most vital international relationships, but also carry a real risk of importing violence to the United States. The calls for military action have infuriated Mexico’s leaders, who in turn criticize America’s broken and inhumane border security and Washington’s inability to curb the seemingly insatiable demand for drugs in the United States. The basis for the neighboring nations’ security cooperation, the 2008 Mérida Initiative, seems to have failed, largely failing to stem the tide of violence and instability in Mexico, or to halt the cross border flow of migrants, guns, and drugs. The result is poor regional security and a deteriorating bilateral relationship. There is reason to hope that the Plan Mérida’s replacement, the U.S.–Mexico Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities, will strengthen bilateral cooperation and help put security relations on a path to demilitarization. However, since the State Department announced the framework in 2021, little progress has been made in developing the shape and contents of this program. The continued failure to articulate how the Bicentennial Framework will represent a meaningful break from failed policies in the past suggests militarized enforcement may still dominate security relations for years to come. This status quo poses grave risks to both countries. But through the Bicentennial Framework, U.S. policymakers have the potential to make meaningful changes in bilateral security relations by: Rejecting U.S. unilateralist measures against Mexico Developing more robust policies to halt U.S. arms flow to Mexico Reducing the military’s role in enforcement functions and redirecting military entities toward civil action and development Supporting Mexico–led development programs By decreasing the scope of militarization in regional security policies through an appropriately designed Bicentennial Framework, the United States and Mexico can achieve healthier and more balanced relations, and eliminate the risk of a worst-case scenario: unilateral U.S. military intervention next door.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Global South, Borders, Restraint, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, Global Focus, and United States of America

183. Performing Diasporic Resistance: (Re)Claiming the Heritage Language

Author:: Shushan Karapetian
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: “All wars are fought twice, the first time on the battlefield, the second time in memory,” writes Pulitzer Prize-winning author Viet Thanh Nguyen.1 In the landscape of memory, language is the theater of war. Through language, we frame the narratives of our experiences and transmit those narratives for the historical record as individuals and collectives. The chronology and processes so profoundly articulated by Nguyen have merged in the recent decade such that combat on the physical battlefield does not necessarily precede the curation of narratives about the war. They now take place synchronously. Due to advances in digital media and communication technologies, the landscape, strategies, and potential combatants have outgrown geographic, physical, and temporal limitations. Civilians can now participate in military conflicts through digital and participatory warfare enabled by the hyperconnected battlefield of social media platforms. In parallel with actual fighting in combat zones and the official narratives of the states involved in war, new participatory modalities within a global digital battlefield are impacting the representation, perception, participa- tion, and memorialization of conflict. The mobilization of transnational human resources by diasporas can enlarge the scope of civilian participation in warfare, impacting war’s narration, cura- tion, and framing. In this current environment, language becomes the theater of war, not just within the post-combat landscape of memory, but also during combat—in the parallel digital battlefields of modern-day participatory warfare. It is, therefore, important to consider how language is viewed and used during war, particularly the heritage language of diasporan civilians. More specifically, we must assess the extent to which the heritage language is employed as both a symbolic and strategic tool in wartime transnational activism in processes through which diasporic identities are fashioned. In this essay, I examine the role of the Armenian language in the unprecedented transnational mobilization of Armenian communities across the globe during and after the 2020 Nagorno- Karabakh War.2 I argue that transnational actors (re)claimed the Armenian language as an act of resistance in the context of participatory warfare, which not only intensified the existing symbolic range of the Armenian language as a central identity marker, but also introduced a novel instrumental element for many Armenians.
Topic:: Diaspora, Language, Participation, Heritage, and Resistance
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Global Focus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

184. The Evolution and Ethics of Accountability Sanctions

Author:: Mark Ferullo
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: When Yahya Jammeh seized power in The Gambia in 1994 in a bloodless coup d’état, the young army colonel’s promise to eliminate corruption seemed disin- genuous. At the time, few Gambians could have anticipated how corrupt and cruel his rule would be. His Excellency Sheikh Professor Al-haji Dr. Yahya A.J.J. Jammeh Babili Mansa, as he titled himself, brutalized his country for over two decades. In 2022, The Gambia’s Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Com- mission exposed the extent of his violence, revealing that he commanded a hit squad that crushed dissent through murder, torture, and rape. His claim that he could cure AIDS with herbs might have been dismissed as the delusions of an out-of-touch autocrat were it not for the loss of life this lie caused during the medical trials.1 When the United States placed economic sanctions on Jammeh in 2017, most Gambians had little sympathy for their former leader, and few denied he deserved punishment.2 By then, Jammeh had fled the country, but the United States sanctioned him anyway. Jammeh joined 12 other individuals—including an organ-trafficking surgeon from Pakistan, a Guatemalan Congressman who ordered the killing of a journalist, and a Ukrainian police commander who oversaw the shooting of peaceful protestors in Kyiv during the Revolution of Dignity three years prior—as the first designations under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. “There is a steep price to pay for their mis- deeds,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin at the time.3
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Economy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

185. Science Diplomacy in the Negotiation of International Business Contracts: A Critical Assessment

Author:: Suada Dzogovic, Anita Cucovic, and Armand Krasniqi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study investigates the significance of science diplomacy at the convergence of politics, diplomacy, and science, emphasizing its heightened relevance in contemporary geopolitics and economic development. The aim was to elucidate the role of science diplomacy in optimizing negotiation outcomes concerning international business contracts by examining students’ perceptions of its impacts in such contexts. A theoretical analysis was initially conducted to identify the main themes shaping our questionnaire by employing a comprehensive research strategy that combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Data collection was carried out through a survey using a five-point Likert scale. The study revealed the students’ positive evaluation of science diplomacy, indicating their recognition and appreciation of its utilization in enhancing negotiation outcomes over international business contracts. While political leadership remains crucial in economic negotiations, our findings underscore the significant impact of science diplomacy in promoting international economic relations and facilitating domestic companies’ access to global markets. This research significantly contributes to our understanding of the multifaceted role of science diplomacy in global knowledge dissemination and problem-solving. It elucidates the importance of science diplomacy in international relations and academia, emphasizing its constructive impact on addressing complex challenges.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Communications, Business, Negotiation, Contracts, and Science Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

186. Good Governance and Rule of Law Effect on GDP Growth: Lessons for Emerging Economies

Author:: Esat A. Durguti, Avni Alidemaj, and Anatolijs Krivins
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The overall aim of this article is to explore the effect of governance parameters on gross domestic product (GDP) in the 15 countries of the European Union (EU15) as well as the 6 countries of Southeast Europe (SEE6). The research employed the dynamic methodology generalized methods of moments (GMM) to explore the data gathered from the World Bank and the Global Economy database stretching 2000 - 2022, correspondingly 2008 - 2022. Our analyzed result for EU15 confirms that regulatory quality (RQ), government effectiveness (GE), and rule of law (RL) positively influence GDP; instead, control of corruption (CC) negatively influences GDP. The results obtained for SEE6 reveal that GE and CC positively influence GDP, but instead, the RL negatively influences GDP. Additionally, RQ in the SEE6 instance has shown an insignificant influence on GDP. Unfortunately, the study could not cover every country in both panel groups because of data limitations. Regarding the study’s conclusions, increased dedication to applying and undertaking reform measures for the key governance indicators for SEE6 countries would be helpful. These insights may raise the need to create specific mechanisms for the RL and CC. Compared to other research, the novelty and originality of the present research lies in the fact that it used panel data via the dynamic GMM approach to explore the role of improving government quality metrics in GDP.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, GDP, Economic Growth, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

187. Smart Operations: Rethinking Operational Art To Effectively Protect Civilians

Author:: Dan Kuwali
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The changing nature of armed conflict, where most of the victims are civilians accompanied by the devastation of civilian objects, requires rethinking the elements of operational art, which are adversary-centric at the expense of noncombatants who are ubiquitous in present-day battlefields. Respect for, and compliance with International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is a panacea to violations against noncombatants in contemporary warfare. The principle of distinction is a sine qua non for the protection of civilians. The rules of targeting are at the heart of IHL, while the principle of distinction is the keystone in targeting guided by rules of engagement as the practical application of the legal constraints to combat. As such, the cognitive skills of the military in IHL are vital to the prevention of civilian death, mitigate incidental injury, and limit collateral damage in hostilities. This paper addresses the issue of how to mitigate civilian harm in contemporary hostilities through discourse analysis and a desktop survey. It is noted that the failure to master IHL at the operational and strategic levels in professional military education—as evidenced by doctrinal gaps in the application of operational art and military decision-making processes—renders the integration of humanitarian norms utopian. The oversight also reinforces the reticence to mitigate civilian harm in modern-day conflicts. This paper, inspired by prospect theory in military decision-making processes, posits that effective civilian protection requires smart operations involving a framework for enhanced risk analysis and mitigation of civilian harm in military decision-making processes. In executing smart operations, belligerents demonstrate effective integration of IHL into strategy, operations, and tactics, thereby enhancing prospects of return to peace.
Topic:: Civilians, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Armed Conflict, Decision-Making, Protection, and Risk Analysis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

188. Designing a New Paradigm in Global Trade

Author:: Ryan Mulholland, Trevor Sutton, and Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: How a successful Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum could function while delivering maximum benefits to workers and the environment.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Sustainability, and Metals
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

189. Centering Access, Quality, and Equity and Justice in a Beyond 30×30 Ocean Strategy

Author:: Angelo Villagomez, Jasmin Graham, and Alia Hidayat
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Biden administration should deliver an ocean conservation framework that includes new metrics for success.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Oceans and Seas, Joe Biden, and Equity
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

190. The Road to Baku, Belém, and Beyond: A 5-Year Outlook for U.S. International Climate Finance

Author:: Courtney Federico
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The United States must work to establish an ambitious new international climate finance goal this year at COP29 as part of a five-year plan to scale resources to combat the climate crisis.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

191. 3 International Climate Priorities for 2024

Author:: Anne Christianson, Trevor Sutton, and Frances Colon
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As President Joe Biden’s first term draws to a close, his administration must deliver on three international climate policies to catalyze a 21st-century clean energy economy and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Economy, Inflation, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

192. Extreme Heat Is More Dangerous for Workers Every Year

Author:: Jill Rosenthal, Rosa Barrientos-Ferrer, and Kate Petosa
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Federal and state governments should step up efforts—including adopting heat standards—to address increased on-the-job heat-related injury, illness, and death.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Labor Issues, Regulation, and Heat Waves
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

193. Protecting Children From Extreme Heat Is Critical for Their Health, Learning, and Development

Author:: Allie Schneider, Paige Shoemaker DeMio, and Hailey Gibbs
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As climate change intensifies extreme heat around the globe, policymakers must take steps to develop heat standards for children and support infrastructure improvements to ensure schools, child care centers, and communities are safe and healthy places for children.
Topic:: Climate Change, Education, Children, Child Development, and Heat
Political Geography:: Global Focus

194. The Price of War

Author:: Jonathan Federle, André Meier, Steffen Müller, Willi Mutschler, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In an integrated global economy, the economic fallout of war is not confined to the country where the conflict is fought but spills over to other countries. We study the economic effects of large interstate wars using a new data set spanning 150 years of data for more than 60 countries. War on a country’s territory typically leads to an output decline of 30 percent and a 15 percentage point increase in inflation. We find large negative effects also for countries that are geographically close to the war site, irrespective of their participation in the war. Output in neighboring countries falls by more than 10 percent over 5 years, and inflation rises by 5 percentage points on average. Negative spillovers decline with geographic distance and increase in the degree of trade integration with the war site. For very distant countries, output spillovers can turn positive so that wars create winners and losers in the international economy. We rationalize these findings in an international business cycle model, calibrated to capture key features of the data. As the war destroys capital in the war site and productivity falls, trade with nearby economies decreases, generating an endogenous supply-side contraction abroad.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, War, Business, Geoeconomics, Russia-Ukraine War, Spillovers, and Supply Shocks
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus

195. New Trade Models, Same Old Emissions?

Author:: Robin Sogalla, Joschka Wanner, and Yuta Watabe
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the elusive role of productivity heterogeneity in new trade models in the trade and environment nexus. We contrast the Eaton-Kortum and the Melitz models with firm heterogeneity to the Armington and Krugman models without heterogeneity. We show that if firms have a constant emission share in terms of sales — as they do in a wide range of trade and environment models — the three models’ emission predictions exactly coincide. Conversely, if firms have a constant emission intensity per quantity — a prominent alternative in the literature — the emission equivalence between the three models breaks. We provide a generalization that nests both constant emission shares in sales and constant quantity emission intensities as special cases. We calibrate the models to global production and trade data and use German firm-level data to estimate the key elasticity of how emission intensity changes with productivity. Our multi-industry quantification demonstrates that the role of firm heterogeneity depends both on the model and the estimated parameters. Moving from the Armington model to the EK model increases the emissions effect on trade, while moving from the Krugman model to the Melitz model decreases the emission effects on trade.
Topic:: Climate Change, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Carbon Emissions, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

196. Build Carbon Removal Reserve to Secure Future of EU Emissions Trading

Author:: Wilfried Rickels, Mathias Fridahl, Roland Rothenstein, and Felix Schenuit
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. • Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. • This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. • Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. • To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating resultbased carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. • This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden’s or Denmark’s, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. • An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Carbon Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

197. Sovereign Haircuts: 200 Years of Creditor Losses

Author:: Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 percent. The data also reveal that “serial restructurings”, meaning two or more debt exchanges in the same default spell, are on the rise. To account for this trend toward serial renegotiation, we introduce the “Bulow-Rogoff haircut” – a cumulative measure that captures the combined creditor loss across all restructurings during a single debt crisis. Using this measure, we show that longer debt crises deliver larger haircuts and that interim restructurings provide limited debt relief. We further examine past predictors of the size of haircuts and identify “rules of thumb” applicable to future defaults. Poorer countries, first-time debt issuers, and those that borrowed heavily from external creditors all record significantly higher haircuts in case of a default. Geopolitical shocks – such as wars, revolutions, or the break-up of empires – deliver the deepest haircuts. Sovereign debt investment disasters are often linked to (geo-)political disasters.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, Credit, Sovereign Debt, Emerging Economies, Debt Restructuring, and Sovereign Default
Political Geography:: Global Focus

198. International investment income: patterns, drivers, and heterogeneous sensitivities

Author:: Giovanni Donato and Cedric Tille
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Financial globalization has led to a large increase in international asset holdings. While the rise of associated dividend and interest flows has until now been muted by the decreasing trend in interest rates, this pattern could change, leading to a larger role of investment income flows in the balance of payments. We use a broad sample of countries to document the heterogeneous evolution of the various components of investment income flows, with a rising role of FDI and equity income, especially in advanced economies. We then assess the impact of various variables on yields with a panel analysis. Various drivers have highly heterogeneous effects across investment categories and country groups, often impacting the yields on both assets and liabilities. This translates into substantial heterogeneity in the response of countries’ income balance, due to different compositions of asset and liabilities. This heterogeneity is amplified if we consider country-specific estimates in complement to the panel ones. Focusing on the impact of changes in interest rates, we find that higher rates only had a limited impact in the 2013 taper tantrum, investment income balances are likely to benefit from higher US rates in the current phase of higher rates, with offsetting effects of higher domestic rates.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, Investment, Interest Rates, and Financial Integration
Political Geography:: Global Focus

199. Beyond Borders: Do Gender Norms and Institutions Affect Female Businesses?

Author:: Holger Görg and Ina C. Jäkel
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In this paper, we investigate whether gender norms and institutions act as a constraint to the performance of female businesses. We exploit novel and unique micro data on start-ups in Denmark, which we combine with information on individual-level characteristics of the entrepreneur as main decision maker of the firm. We overcome the challenge of disentangling norms and institutional biases against women from other constraints and hurdles that female businesses might face by exploiting detailed trade data. In this trade context, we study the relative performance of firms across markets with varying institutions, while controlling for other factors that affect female businesses uniformly across all markets. We provide evidence that gender inequality and institutional biases against women in trade partner countries play an important role in explaining gender differences in export and import behaviour. We also perform an event study of a concrete policy change in a destination market – the introduction of quotas for the share of females on the boards of directors in Norway – and how it has affected the gender gap in trade participation.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inequality, Startup, Gender, Opportunity, and Firm Internationalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

200. When the Exception Overtakes the Rule: COVID-19, Security Exemption Clauses, and International Investment Agreements

Author:: Kayla Maria Rolland
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: In the trade and investment law regimes built in the post-war period, “security exemption clauses” were included within trade and investment agreements as a safety valve, permitting States to deviate from their commitments in the event that their security interests were implicated. Initially, these clauses were understood to be narrowly limited to instances of war and interstate conflict. With the rise of the national security state in the decades since, however, the concept of security interests has ballooned to encompass an ever-growing set of issues, with some fearing that the rules may become irrelevant. This has been particularly facilitated through “third generation” security exemption clauses and their inclusion of self-judging language. The COVID-19 pandemic in particular adds a new dimension to this phenomenon. As a case study analysis of the text of the Chile-Hong Kong, China SAR bilateral investment treaty (BIT) will demonstrate, it may be feasible for States to invoke security exemption clauses to justify measures taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in some contexts, particularly with third generation, self-judging security exemption clauses. The expanding notions of security exemption clauses have significant implications for the investor-State dispute system as a whole.
Topic:: Security, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, COVID-19, and International Investment Agreements
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

« Previous
Next »
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
…
118
119

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS