Political Geography: Global Focus

301. Strategic Instability: Challenges for Deterrence and the Changing Character of Warfare

Author:: Philip Ritcheson
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The Cold War was replaced by what the late commentator Charles Krauthammer termed a “Unipolar Moment.” The Soviet Union disintegrated without the Cold War turning hot, and the United States led a broad international coalition to reinforce the rules-based international order in the First Persian Gulf War. Some thought that without an ideological alternative to liberalism, there was an “end to history.” Meanwhile, a sense of strategic complacency set into the United States as it forgot that it needed to compete geostrategically, resulting in hubris. Still, the United States was in an enviable position of not having to seriously account for strategic escalation with an adversary. That said, autocracy regained its footing in Russia, and a multi-dimensional form of competition emerged with China. In the background, terrorists planned, prepared, and conducted the September 11, 2001 attacks, and the United States focused on the Global War on Terror and linkages between rogue regimes, terrorists, and Weapons of Mass Destruction. In Europe, a growing NATO alliance seemed more focused on diplomatic engagement than military capability development and deterrence.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Deterrence, Instability, and Warfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

302. One Universal Civilization: Superiority and Eurocentric Conception of the Rest

Author:: Fadi Zatari and Omar Fili
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: The prevailing notion suggests a universal or human civilization, positing all as subsets of a shared human experience. This article critiques this perspective, arguing that the contemporary concept of human civilization is predominantly synonymous with Western civilization. This article will elucidate its argument by drawing upon the insights of Western scholars in the field of civilizational studies. Subsequently, it will undertake a critical examination and assessment of the Western discourse, evaluating its outcomes as evidenced in contemporary foreign policy shaped by the historical backdrop of colonialism. The article uses direct quotations and historical narratives to not only scrutinize the inclination to depict Western civilization as singular, extraordinary, and unparalleled but also to highlight the persistent tendency to undervalue the importance of other civilizations, often termed as 'the rest'. It relies on primary materials authored by Western scholars concerning the notion of civilization, supplemented by secondary references citing influential intellectuals in the field. In addition to primary sources such as interviews and contemporary statements regarding pertinent events, secondary sources encompass literature on civilization within the framework of global south studies. The notion of Western civilization is depicted as a constructed political construct utilized to perpetuate Western hegemony, engender othering, and perpetuate colonialist agendas. This dynamic persists even in the post-Cold War era, wherein ongoing Western hegemony perpetuates dominance over non-Western powers. Instances reflecting this neo-colonialist paradigm include the US intervention in Iraq, the conflict in Afghanistan, and the ongoing Israeli military campaign in Gaza as of late 2023.
Topic:: Colonialism, Civilization, Eurocentrism, and Superiority
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

303. From Dual Roles to Dynamic Equilibrium: An Overview of Theoretical Perspectives Used in Studies Addressing Work-Life Struggles of Working Mothers

Author:: Merve Gerçek
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: There has been much scholarly attention given to the role of women in the labor market throughout the years. While there are plenty of evaluations of ideas and perspectives regarding work-life concepts, there is limited understanding regarding the theoretical foundation of work-life concerns specifically about mothers. This study aims to provide an overview of theories used to investigate the work-life issues of working mothers. The data were collected from the Web of Science database. A total of 63 research studies examining the work-life challenges faced by employed women were evaluated based on theoretical frameworks. It was seen that identity theory and gender perspective are dominant perspectives in the current literature. In addition, the prevailing work-life perspectives adopted in the studies are work-life balance and work-life conflict. The study offers a detailed examination of the various theoretical perspectives employed in understanding the work-life difficulties encountered by employed mothers.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Economy, Labor Market, and Mothers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

304. From Board Games to Video Games and the World of Avatars: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Author:: Ayla Akdoğan and Olgahan Bakşi Yalçın
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: In the digital age, the relationship between film and literature demonstrates how different forms of art can collaborate to improve the storytelling experience. Rather than competing, these mediums complement one another, each bringing their own strengths to the storytelling process. This mutual relationship not only enhances the audience's experience but also fosters a greater appreciation for both film and literature (Hutcheon, 2006; Sanders, 2016). The various film adaptations of Chris Van Allsburg’s picturebook Jumanji (1981) are excellent examples of how literature and film can complement and improve one another over time. The first major adaptation of Jumanji was released in 1995 starring Robin Williams and directed by Joe Johnston. Decades later, the story of Jumanji was revitalized with the releases of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (2017) and Jumanji: The Next Level (2019) both directed by Jake Kasdan. These adaptations illustrate the changing nature of storytelling across mediums and how each new iteration introduces new perspectives and engages contemporary audiences in novel ways. Mikhail Bakhtin’s concepts of heteroglossia and dialogic relationship (1981) are great tools for understanding how different voices and cultural contexts interact within and between texts, thereby revealing the dynamic nature of storytelling and interpretation. Thus, this paper aims to investigate how Bakhtin's concepts of heteroglossia and dialogic relationship function in Jake Kasdan's 2017 sequel, focusing on how the film adaptation evolves in response to its contemporary context.
Topic:: Film, Adaptation, Dialogic Relationship, and Heteroglossia
Political Geography:: Global Focus

305. A Structural Equation Model Application For Global Innovation Input Dimension To Affect Output Dimension

Author:: Furkan Fahri Altıntaş
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Purpose - The influence of the innovation input dimen-sion on the innovation output dimension has been meas-ured based on the values of the GII criteria of the coun-tries specified in the Global Innovation Index (GII) re-ports. Methodology/Approach/Design- The effects of the in-novation input dimension on the innovation output di-mension has been measured using a structural equation model with the relevant values indicated in the GII re-ports for the years 2008 to 2022 for each country. Findings Firstly, It has been ascertained that the input dimension of the innovation has a notable and construc-tive effect on the output dimension. Secondly, it has been observed that the criteria contributing the most to the relational structure are 'institutions', 'human capital and research', 'infrastructure', and 'market sophistica-tion'. Originality/Value- The assessment of this study sug-gests a potential contribution to the field of innovation. Additionally, significant revelations have been obtained regarding the augmentation of the global interplay be-tween the innovation input and output of various coun-tries, precisely determining the specific innovation input criteria that require refinement.
Topic:: Markets, Infrastructure, Human Capital, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

306. A Security Symphony: Harmonizing Cybersecurity Regulation

Author:: Aspen Digital
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Global cybersecurity regulation is fragmented, inefficient, and often ineffective. More than 60 countries are implementing an array of legal frameworks, making it difficult to regulate cyber practices across borders. Costly on many levels, inconsistent regulations and varying compliance standards allow bad actors to seek out gaps in the system and facilitate attacks that span geographies. With the current amplification and intensity of cyber threats, government and industry need to share tactics, techniques, and procedures with each other as well as with partner nations. If the field doesn’t achieve a higher degree of harmony in the global regulatory landscape, multiple dimensions will remain inefficient and costly: operations, risk management, research and development, and more. In A Security Symphony, Aspen Digital’s Global Cybersecurity Group calls for establishing regulatory harmonization principles, with a focus on collaboration and standardization. The principles span the core categories of interoperability and transparency, market competition, and mutual recognition frameworks. The paper also demonstrates the real-life harms of lacking coordination as well as the benefits of harmonized models through case studies on the 2016 dismantling of the “Avalanche” network and the Factor Analysis of Information Risk (FAIR). A collective of cybersecurity experts committed to democracy and freedom online, the Global Cybersecurity Group is uniquely positioned to offer cross-border guidance to their peers and like-minded nations.
Topic:: National Security, Cybersecurity, Regulation, and Risk
Political Geography:: Global Focus

307. Exploring the Impact of Behavioural Factors and Personality Traits on Private Pension System Participation: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:: Can Verberi and Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: This study aims to investigate the effects of personality traits, in addition to basic financial literacy, private pension literacy and behavioural factors on Private Pension System (PPS) participation using machine learning algorithms. The PPS participation model was trained using both random forest and LightGBM algorithms, and the contributions of model inputs in the prediction of pension participation were interpreted using the Tree SHAP algorithms with swarmplots. The data employed in the empirical analysis is survey data collected from the Şırnak province of Türkiye with a sample size of 449. The findings of the study shows that: (i) PPS participation is more likely for females and middle-aged people; (ii) High basic financial literacy has a negative impact on PPS participation; (iii) Extraversion is the key personality trait affecting PPS participation; (iv) Advanced pension literacy has more impact on participation than simple pension literacy: (v) Present-fatalistic tendency is key behavioural factor and it negatively affects PPS; (vi) Present-hedonistic, conscientiousness, future-time orientation, and locus of control tendencies increase PPS participation. Furthermore, the distribution of colours in LightGBM has a greater degree of uniformity in both directions compared with the random forest algorithm. Finally, to increase PPS participation, the results of the study suggest the implementation of the following policy measures: Tailored pension literacy programmes can help to increase pension participation rates. Incentives should be created to prevent narrow-minded behaviour and establish a sense of protection and control around PPS, targeting middle-aged individuals and women.
Topic:: Economics, Behavior, Pension, Machine Learning, and Personality
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

308. A Better Proxy for Technology Determinant of Economic Growth: The International Digital Economy and Society Index

Author:: Elif Asoy
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: The importance of information communication technology in fueling economic growth is widely acknowledged. In the current digital era, the International Digital Economy and Society Index (I-DESI) offers a more precise depiction alternative to the ICT indicators by serving as a better proxy for changes in the factors of production. It monitors the advancement of ICT in the EU27 and 14 non-EU nations, highlighting their strides towards a technologydriven economy. The objective of the study was to evaluate the influence of the I-DESI on economic growth through the utilization of the panel data method. Hence, gross domestic product (GDP) measured at constant prices was utilized as the dependent variable in the analysis, while the Index of Digital Economy and Society Integration (I-DESI), calculated by the European Commission, served as the independent variable. However, it’s important to note that the described index is current and limited at present. In line with this constraint, only four years of data, spanning from 2015 to 2018, were available. To ensure the accuracy of the model, diagnostic tests were conducted, and the Driscoll-Kraay standard error model was employed to assess the outcomes. Two models were constructed to achieve this goal, with the initial one revealing the relationship between the I-DESI and economic growth. The second model aimed to pinpoint the dimensions of the I-DESI that had the greatest impact on growth. According to findings obtained from the analysis, I-DESI and certain subdimensions which are digital skills, use of internet, integration of digital technology, and digital public services affect economic growth positively and significantly. A one percent increase in I-DESI results in a one percent increase in GDP. Similarly, each subdimension mentioned, where meaningful relationships have been identified, possesses explanatory power for GDP. Furthermore, evaluating the coefficient of these independent variables, changing the weight of dimensions can be considered.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Global Focus

309. Public Policies on the Socioeconomic Effects of Migration

Author:: Ezgim Yavuz and Nazan Susam
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: To develop a public policy, it is important to understand the experiences of forced migrants. This study reveals the effects of forced migration on public finances in countries hosting displaced people. In this context, public policy support for access to basic humanitarian needs such as education and health, which are semi-public goods, will be evaluated through a quantitative analysis. Interviews with refugees within the scope of this research draw a picture of the current situation. Thus, evaluating the effectiveness and shortcomings of existing policies and determining the policy support needed are among the unique values of this research. Since migration is a dynamic process, it is also aimed to provide a basis for future studies in this field and to reveal the current situation.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Health, Migration, Refugees, Public Policy, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

310. Panel Causality Analysis of the Relationship among the Rule of Law, Technological Advances, Competitiveness, and Value-Added

Author:: Doğan Keşap and Ali Rıza Sandalcılar
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: The status of countries within the global value chain varies depending on the importance of national production capabilities in the global economy. From this perspective, there is a need for a value-added production approach that focuses on innovation and competitiveness. Technological advances and institutions are considered to play a significant role in transforming the economy towards an innovation-driven one to meet these needs. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship among technological advances, the rule of law as a proxy for institutions, value-added production, and competitiveness in a way that reflects crosscountry divergence. Through an analysis employed independently of countries’ existing levels of development, it will be possible to evaluate whether the factors associated with institutions and innovation can produce similar results in all circumstances and for each country. In this context, a panel causality analysis that considers cross-sectional heterogeneity is employed. The analysis shows bidirectional causality between the variables, except for value-added to the rule of law. However, the results also support the existence of cross-country divergence. These findings suggest that future policy plans should be designed to consider the multidimensional nature of country-specific factors, alongside technological advances and the rule of law, and to ensure the integration of both national and international economic objectives.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Rule of Law, Competition, and Value-added Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

311. Panel Data Analysis of Export Structure and Growth: Case of BRICS-T Countries

Author:: Necip Dündar and Yüksel Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: Realisation of specialisation in areas dominated by technological production structure and the technological level of exported goods are essential determinants of macroeconomic performance. Therefore, the export structure and technological level of exported goods are highly significant. In this study, the relationship between real GDP and exports of goods produced in BRICS-T countries with low, medium, and high levels of skill and technology is investigated. In the panel data analysis using data for the period 1995–2020, the cointegration relationship between the variables was examined, and it was concluded that there is no long-run relationship between real GDP and goods produced in labour-resource intensive, low, medium, and high skill and technology levels of countries. In addition, a causality test using Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) linear heterogeneous model was carried out. The test results showed a unidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and goods with low and high skill and technology but a bidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and labour-resource-intensive goods.
Topic:: Science and Technology, GDP, Economic Growth, Exports, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Global Focus

312. Ceremonial Economics: A General Review

Author:: Aras Yolusever
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: Ceremonial economics explores how traditional values, myths, and rituals intersect with economic practices and institutions. It differentiates between “ceremonial” practices based on tradition and cultural values and “instrumental” practices based on efficiency and problem-solving capabilities. This field, rooted in institutional economics, emphasizes the tension between preserving established social orders and fostering innovation. Scholars can gain insights into the broader implications of economic systems by understanding how ceremonial practices influence economic behavior and social cohesion. This pluralistic approach comprehensively analyzes how ceremonial and instrumental practices interact within various economic systems. The main goal of this study is to develop a detailed and all-encompassing framework for ceremonial economics. A key aspect of this will involve comparing ceremonial economics principles with institutional economics. Additionally, the study will delve into various aspects of ceremonial economics, specifically focusing on cultural and social aspects. Furthermore, the study conducts four examples to provide practical insights into the application of ceremonial economics.
Topic:: Economics, Tradition, and Rituals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

313. Foreign Direct Investment, Brand Value, and Economic Performance: A Multinational Analysis

Author:: Tuba Yıldız, Ünal Arslan, Zeynep Ökten, Yıldız Sağlam Çelıköz, and Hale Kırmızıoğlu
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: The visibility and dependability of multinational corporations’ products increase with the fact that they introduce their goods to markets in other nations through foreign direct investments. The method for presenting products to international markets through foreign direct investments reveals the product’s reputation and therefore the brand’s development value. This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investments and brand value in Australia, Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Spain, the USA, and the UK for the period 2007-2023. The majority of studies in the literature attempt to explain the impact of brand value on foreign direct investments. However, very few studies explain the impac foreign direct investments on brand value and 1st generation unit root tests were generally used. Unlike existing studies, In this study, the second-generation unit root test, Durbin-Hausman cointegration, and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimation methods were used. As a result, it is anticipated that this study will contribute to the literature in this regard. The findings show that increases in foreign direct investments boost brand value.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, Data, and Branding
Political Geography:: Japan, China, United Kingdom, Canada, India, France, Spain, Australia, Global Focus, and United States of America

314. A Monitoring Framework for Progress in Artificial Intelligence Technology: A Research Based on Scientific and Technological Indicators

Author:: Fethi Aslan
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: In the past century, the key technologies that shaped societal and economic transformation were mechanical, electrical, and automation technologies. In the current century, there are strong trends indicating the prominence of artificial intelligence technology. Therefore, artificial intelligence technology has become more important for all countries. The success of countries in artificial intelligence technology is only possible with well-designed artificial intelligence policy tools. It is important to measure the level of technological advancement for the formulation of policies. However, efforts to measure the scientific and technological advancement of artificial intelligence technology are insufficient. Therefore, this study aims to develop a framework to measure the scientific and technological progress of AI technology. The developed framework includes the number of publications and citations, the number of high-impact scientific journals, the number of patent applications, the number of universities ranked in the top thousand in the field of computer science, the number of international high-impact conferences, and the total number of researchers in higher education. Through these criteria, the level of scientific and technological progress of the countries has been analysed in detail. The findings clearly revealed the leading position of the USA in this field. China followed the USA. These two countries are clearly and positively differentiated from the other countries. Other countries with good performance are the UK, the Netherlands and Germany.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Entropy, and Grey System Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

315. Determinants of Air Transport in the BRICS-T Countries: Findings from Panel Data Analysis

Author:: Şevket Pazarcı, Emre Kılıç, Asım Kar, and Sıla Kale
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines the factors that determine air transport in the BRICS countries, which account for approximately 42% of the world’s population and occupy an important position among developing countries in terms of economic size. In more detail, in this study, air transport examines two different models, passenger and freight transport. The research is carried out for the period 1996-2020. Panel data methods were used as analysis methods. According to the results of the analysis, both air passenger transport and air freight transport act together with their macroeconomic and socioeconomic determinants in the long term. Income is positive and significant in the air passenger transportation model, while income is insignificant in the freight transportation model. In addition, inflation, exchange rate, industrialisation and urbanisation on a country basis are important determinants of both air passenger transport and air freight transport for BRICS-T.
Topic:: Economics, Transportation, Data, and BRICS
Political Geography:: Global Focus

316. Role of Gardening in Mental Health, Food Security, and Economic Well-Being in Resettled Refugees: A Mixed Methods Study

Author:: Rashmi Gangamma, Bhavneet Walia, and Shaelise Tor
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Home and community gardening is emerging as a beneficial intervention for resettled refugee populations. Using an interdisciplinary lens, we examined whether gardening influences mental health, food security, and economic well-being. A mixed methods study (n = 29) was conducted with quantitative surveys to assess indicators of mental health, food security, and economic well-being. Qualitative, semi-structured interviews explored gardener participants’ experience of gardening benefits (n = 10). Participants had on average been in the United States for seven and a half years, with most having lived in refugee camps prior to arrival. Findings showed gardeners reporting fewer symptoms of anxiety, depression, and trauma, and lesser food insecurity than non-gardeners, and similar indicators of economic well-being. Non-parametric regression analysis showed that being a gardener significantly predicted less psychological distress. Qualitative data substantiated these findings with gardeners reporting improved mental health, closer family, social relationships and connections with culture, and more access to fresh and organic food. The multiple, simultaneous benefits of gardening reported here provide strong support for building community-based health promotion programs to assist refugee integration, including long after arrival. The study further highlights the importance of examining these interrelated factors of mental health, food security, and economic well-being simultaneously and reevaluating the established goals of refugee resettlement, particularly in the United States. We offer the following recommendations: • Policymakers and refugee resettlement practitioners should integrate culturally appropriate community-based health promotion efforts in refugee programs long after the initial resettlement period. • Researchers on refugee integration outcomes should include interdisciplinary perspectives that offer comprehensive understanding of processes related to health outcomes. • Policymakers on refugee resettlement and integration should consider the linkages between mental health, food security, and economic well-being.
Topic:: Food Security, Refugees, Mental Health, Resettlement, Well-Being, and Gardening
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

317. Laying a Strong Foundation for Disaster Resilience: How Can Data Make Us Resilient to Disasters?

Author:: Samet Keskin
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This report aims to demonstrate the importance of data-driven approaches for laying strong foundations in disaster management. The report firstly provides information on which data may be needed for disaster risk reduction and how they can be used in disaster management, as well as examples of good practices, services and products. This review is followed by recommendations to use data more effectively in disaster risk reduction and to better integrate it into policymaking and strategy development processes.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Resilience, and Data
Political Geography:: Global Focus

318. Impacts of Artificial Intelligence on Governance in the Context of Ongoing Digitalization

Author:: Erkan Saka
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief will examine the impact of artificial intelligence on governance in the context of ongoing digital transformation, reflect on how to balance between leveraging AI’s benefits and maintaining a human-centered approach to governance and develop recommendations.
Topic:: Governance, Artificial Intelligence, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

319. Assessing the Relationship between Artificial Intelligence and Female Labor Force from a Perspective of Social Equality

Author:: Mehtap Hisarciklilar
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the potential AI-driven transitions on women in the workforce, with a focus on gender inequalities. It discusses the threats and opportunities posed by AI and develops policy recommendations.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Women, Artificial Intelligence, Equality, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

320. Urban Governance and Responsible Artificial Intelligence Interaction for Local Democracy

Author:: Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief discusses how the interaction of responsible artificial intelligence (RAI) and urban governance can democratize cities while providing policy recommendations.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

321. Data-Driven Strategic Planning for Disaster Risk Reduction

Author:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: For disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies, there is a need to examine the existing political framework, data collection, budgeting approaches based on this data, and cross-sectoral collaborations. This publication is based on the participants’ recommendations from the Training and Workshop: Data-Driven Strategic Planning for Disaster Risk Reduction event that took place on May 14, 2024 within the scope of Improving Disaster Resilience for Sustainable Cities project, implemented by TESEV with the support of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom.
Topic:: Sustainability, Data, Disaster Management, Strategic Planning, and Budgeting
Political Geography:: Global Focus

322. The Journey of Data in Gender Equality: Examples from Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys

Author:: Iknur Yüksel-Kaptanoğlu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief prepared within the scope of the Exploring Data for Gender Equal Cities project carried out with the support of the Consulate General of Sweden in Istanbul, presents the gender equality sensitivity progress in the journey of data from the research question to the advocacy stage.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, Sustainability, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

323. New Approaches to Data Production for Monitoring and Mitigating Gender Inequality

Author:: Özge Aktaş Mazman
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief prepared within the scope of the Exploring Data for Gender Equal Cities project carried out with the support of the Consulate General of Sweden in Istanbul, presents new perspectives.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, Sustainability, Data, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

324. How to Best Manage Data for Transformative Equality Policies?

Author:: Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: In this brief prepared within the scope of the Exploring Data for Gender Equal Cities project carried out with the support of the Consulate General of Sweden in Istanbul, data processes in equality policies are discussed and recommendations are put forward for decision makers to develop transformative policies.
Topic:: Inequality, Cities, Decision-Making, Equity, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

325. Modelling the environmental impact of agri-food trade policies

Author:: Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In the era of globalization, international trade policies significantly influence the economic and environmental conditions of countries. As environmental concerns grow, it’s important to understand how these trade policies affect sustainable development and identify the strategies needed to achieve positive outcomes for the climate and environment. This analysis aims to evaluate the impact of international agricultural trade on achieving certain climate and environmental goals, particularly those outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), mainly Goal 13, but also parts of other environment-related goals. We examined the effects of specific trade agreements, considering the current energy and climate policies, using modeling tools to focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions like N2O and CH4. This helps us understand how international trade can reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally and find ways to prevent pollution from simply moving to other regions due to changes in trade. This working paper provides arguments for developing new and improved trade policies that incorporate environmental measures as tools to mitigate climate change.
Topic:: Agriculture, Environment, Food, Trade, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

326. R2P Monitor, Issue 68, 1 March 2024

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 68 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cameroon, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

327. Introduction: The Militarization of Space

Author:: Eliahu H. Niewood and Matthew Jones
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: From a national security perspective, the space domain today is fundamentally different than it was 10 years ago. It is also likely to be very different 10 years from now than it is today. The role of the commercial sector, the nature of development of space capabilities, the ways satellites are gaining access to space, the uses of space capabilities, the organization of the U.S. Department of Defense when it comes to space, and the likelihood of conflict in space all look very different today than they did in the past. This issue of the Journal of Advanced Military Studies considers a variety of these shifts in detail. To provide context and background for the individual articles, this introduction describes some of the connections between the changes and gives an overview of each one.
Topic:: National Security, Militarization, and Satellites
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Space

328. Breaking the Newtonian Fetish: Conceptualizing War Differently for a Changing World

Author:: Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Explaining what a military’s social paradigm concerning conflict and war is requires a theoretical approach to both frame the core constructs and offer feasible alternatives. This article introduces social paradigm theory for military application and how most modern, technologically advanced militaries sustain a Newtonian-styled worldview concerning warfare and what constitutes war. The Newtonian-styled war paradigm gained prominence during the last five centuries, yet is now becoming increasingly insufficient and possibly irrelevant. The integration of ever-increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence into nearly all aspects of warfare will require new ways of thinking and how teams of humans and AI systems collaborate in complex security contexts immediately. The new combination of the space domain, cyberspace, those military forces associated with these new domains, and special operations activities are of increased focus for how and why conflict may change, particularly within an overarching traditional nuclear deterrence between state competitors. This requires a military paradigmatic shift, moving away from Newtonian constructs.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, Warfare, Complexity, Force Design, and Emergence
Political Geography:: Global Focus, United States of America, and Space

329. Characterizing Future Authoritarian Governance in the Space Domain

Author:: Julian G. Waller
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Traditionally, discussions of governance beyond Earth have largely been held to the purview of debates about space law and global governance regimes. Yet, the priority of space exploration among ambitious, tech-industry associated billionaires and its continued potential for militarization suggest that a more dynamic approach may be needed, given that state-sponsorship of extraterrestrial colonial projects may be more akin to partnerships between private and public actors rather than nation-states assuming traditional roles as sole sources of decision-making. Permanent settlements in space will require forms of localized government that may look distinct from contemporary models of political order. This article thus asks a provocative question associated with the empirical record of human colonization and settlement in prior eras: What sort of authoritarian governance is most likely to form in human space settlements during the medium term? Reviewing variations on political order in small-scale colonial settlements in light of recent conceptual work on authoritarian rule, the article identifies three theoretical models of governance that may emerge once beyond Earth settlements become permanent fixtures of human society.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Space, Militarization, Space Governance, Political Order, and Corporate Spacefaring
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Space

330. The Void Above: The Future of Space Warfare and a Call to Update the Rule of International Space Law

Author:: Alan Cunningham
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: In an age where space warfare is becoming more likely and a militarized space is already a reality, it is imperative to develop a strong legal framework to try and prevent nation-states from engaging in warfare. By implementing legal standards, improving on the existing legal framework, and taking input from outside legal sources, outer space can be made safer and the potential for armed conflict more protected against.
Topic:: International Relations, International Law, International Security, Military Affairs, Space, Warfare, and Space Law
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Space

331. Contractual Origins of Anti-Americanism: Pew 2013 Results

Author:: Cem Birol
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Economic Norms Theory (ENT) implies that anti-modernist and anti-market values flourish in countries where the central authority poorly monitors contracts that bind economic transactions. Decades of research show that ENT astutely predicts civil war and interstate war incidents, as well as people’s support for war, and suicide bombing in defense of Islam. This paper investigates the association between contract enforcement and anti-Americanism, which is the ENT’s core, yet is a statistically under-evaluated implication. Accordingly, in countries with poor economic contract monitoring, power-contending elites can attribute the resultant loss of prosperity to the USA and relatedly spread anti-American values among citizens. It is the urban poor who are cognitively most available to adopt such elite-driven anti-Americanism since they tend to be hurt most socially and economically by unfulfilled market contracts. To investigate this argument, I statistically estimate random intercept models on a sample of Pew Global Attitudes Project’s 2013 survey results. I observe that a three-way interaction among individuals’ urbanity, poverty, and their nations’ poor contract enforcement indicators increase anti-Americanism.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Urban, Survey, Economic Norms Theory (ENT), Hierarchical Modelling, and Anti-Americanism
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

332. Meeting Skill Needs for the Global Green Transition: A Role for Labour Migration?

Author:: Samuel Huckstep and Helen Dempster
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The green transition will generate an enormous demand for workers. This paper reviews demand for, and supply of, skills relevant to the green transition in five countries in the Global South and five in the Global North. It focuses on the installation and maintenance workforce needed in two sectors: solar photovoltaic panels and heat pumps. It finds that in almost all of the 10 countries studied, supply of the necessary skilled workers is unlikely to meet demand. In particular, Global North countries, which must cut more emissions sooner, face challenges in obtaining sufficient workers against a backdrop of ageing populations. If green transition targets are to be met, migration is likely to be needed as a complement to domestic training and reskilling. Given that the shortage of green-skilled workers is global, however, migration must be accompanied by support for training and retaining workers at home.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Migration, Labor Issues, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

333. Mind the Gap: Bridging the Divide between Cooperation Providers

Author:: Beata Cichocka, Rachael Calleja, Sara Casadevall Bellés, and Emma Mawdsley
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Despite the increasing imperative for cross-provider collaboration, the quest for a truly “global” development paradigm remains elusive, marked by persistent divides between different types of development providers’ normative frameworks, models, experiences, capacities, and institutional allegiances. This paper explores the potential role of countries to act as bridges across these varying institutional, normative, or technical “distances” between providers. We begin by examining why, when, and under what conditions countries choose to act as bridges, given their differing capacities, credibility, knowledge, and willingness to act in the role. We then identify some common types and illustrative examples of bridging countries, including “dual donors,” “development experience” bridges, “political” bridges, and “geographic or cultural” bridges, and explore some of the most common types of actions that they can undertake. While all of these actions—whether joint project implementation, hosting forums, brokering agreements, or contributing to the creation of more inclusive norms and multilateral spaces— require some level of both political and technical commitment, they vary in terms of the level of ambition and mutual trust required to undertake action and therefore provide a broad range of options suited to a variety of contexts, agendas, and actors wishing to play a bridging role. Following a brief examination of the benefits and risks associated with bridging, the paper concludes with some policy recommendations for bridging countries that wish to approach this ambitious challenge more strategically.
Topic:: Development, Government, Donors, and Collaboration
Political Geography:: Global Focus

334. Beyond the “Gavi-Eligible”: High-Leverage Opportunities for Gavi to Enhance Vaccine Access and Uptake in Ineligible Middle-Income Countries

Author:: Rachel Bonnifield, Morgan Pincombe, and Janeen Madan Keller
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The global locus of undervaccination is increasingly shifting from the poorest countries in the world—which are eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi)—to middle-income countries (MICs) that do not qualify for traditional Gavi support. Given these growing challenges, Gavi must rethink its engagement with those MICs that are ineligible for traditional support. Although this engagement is intended to be “catalytic” and has been intentionally targeted to country needs, it also has been relatively small-scale and ad hoc. Gavi’s next five-year strategic period from 2026 to 2030, known as “Gavi 6.0,” offers a window of opportunity for its board and leadership to consider new and different ways for Gavi to engage with MICs to advance global vaccine access and improve vaccination outcomes. To have the greatest impact in this context, Gavi must lean into its comparative advantage in market shaping and demand consolidation to drive its contributions to global vaccination efforts with finite resources. We offer recommendations for Gavi to operationalize broader engagement with MICs, specifically by enabling an expanded cohort of MICs to access more affordable prices for both newer, costlier vaccines and future vaccines via opt-in framework agreements and by supporting a global coordinating hub to shape a forward-looking immunization innovation agenda.
Topic:: Public Health, Vaccine, Global Health, and Middle-Income Countries
Political Geography:: Global Focus

335. Disinvesting from Low-Value Health Technologies in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Between a Solution to the Current Fiscal Crises and a Costly Mirage?

Author:: Adrian Gheorghe and Pete Baker
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: In this policy paper we summarise what is known about healthcare disinvestment and outline documented experiences in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to draw insights on what has worked, to what extent, and under what conditions. We reviewed the published literature on documented experiences of attempted healthcare disinvestment in LMICs. We identified two common scenarios when disinvestment initiatives were attempted, namely “one-off” and “systematic” initiatives, and characterised them in terms of objectives, resources and political will. We found four documented examples of one-off disinvestment initiatives—Iran, Malaysia, Romania, and Vietnam, two documented examples of systematic disinvestment initiatives by health technology assessment (HTA) agencies in LMICs—Brazil and China, as well as a range of countries like Thailand, India, and Ghana that carry out systematic disinvestment through routine HTA processes. We conclude that disinvestment is costly, time-consuming, and rarely as successful as policymakers intend. Key considerations to improve the chances of success include whether strong pre-existing health prioritisation systems exist (such as an HTA agency) and whether the design of initiatives are tightly matched to the level of political will, the policy objective, and available resources.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Global Health, and Fiscal Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

336. Why and How Multilateral Development Banks Support Improved Outcomes for Economic Migrants and Refugees

Author:: Helen Dempster, Martha Guerrero Ble, and Stephanie López Villamil
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Economic migrants and refugees can bring both benefits and costs to their hosting countries. If well-integrated, they can support themselves, their families, and their hosting countries as producers and consumers. Both economic migration and forced displacement are therefore integrally linked with development outcomes. Recognizing this, multilateral development banks (MDBs) are supporting their beneficiary member countries to improve outcomes for economic migrants and refugees, in the form of billions of dollars in grants and loans, as well as technical assistance, policy dialogues, and knowledge exchanges. This paper provides an introductory snapshot of some of the financing instruments, projects, and strategies used; particularly innovative approaches; and challenges MDBs face in expanding their engagement. It is hoped this paper will be useful to anyone who engages with MDBs and wants to understand how they engage on economic migration and forced displacement, particularly as these issues continue to grow in importance.
Topic:: Development, Migration, World Bank, Refugees, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

337. ABCs of the IFIs: Understanding the World Bank’s IDA21 Replenishment

Author:: Erin Collinson, Clemence Landers, Justin Hurley, and Grace Miner
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The International Development Association (IDA)—the World Bank’s arm that works in low- and lower-middle-income countries—is one of the largest sources of development assistance for the world’s poorest countries. It is also a crucial tool for resource-constrained governments to borrow on affordable terms compared to other creditors, including Chinese entities. IDA supports eligible countries whose annual per capita incomes fall below an established line (currently $1,315 in FY2024). Because IDA provides grants and highly subsidized loans to its client countries, its funds need to be replenished by donors every three years. Replenishments are year-long negotiations where the World Bank’s shareholding countries, of which the US is the largest, negotiate a policy and financing package for the next three-year cycle. This year, 2024, is an IDA replenishment year for the institution’s twenty-first round of funding (“IDA21”), culminating with a pledging session in December to finalize IDA21’s financing envelope.
Topic:: Development, World Bank, and International Development Association (IDA)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

338. Options for Green-Skilled Migration Partnerships: A Guide for Policymakers

Author:: Helen Dempster and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The green transition is widely expected to lead to high levels of net job creation, with roles distributed across the pay and skill spectrum. To fill these roles, many countries of destination will need to use migration alongside their domestic labour supply. Yet few countries of origin have enough skilled workers to meet their own green transition targets. As a result, any green-skilled migration facilitated by countries of destination should be linked with investments in the training, recruitment, and retention of workers into ‘green’ jobs within countries of origin. This paper explores three models that link training and migration in a partnership framework—fixed-term migration; Global Skill Partnerships; and migration with parallel investments—to maximise both economic development and carbon reduction benefits. For each model, the paper outlines key considerations that should be taken into account along with a worked example. It also includes a "guide," walking policymakers through the different models to understand which would best meet the needs of countries of origin, countries of destination, and employers.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Economic Development, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

339. Starting from the Source: Methods and Priorities for Explaining Lead Exposure

Author:: Rachel Bonnifield
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Lead is a dangerous neurotoxin, and lead poisoning remains one of the most serious and neglected public health challenges in the developing world, with major negative impacts on global health, education, and overall economic development. There is now growing international momentum to mitigate lead pollution, with the goal of dramatically reducing human lead exposure and consequent adverse effects. Yet before lead exposure can be effectively mitigated, it is essential to understand why humans are being exposed to lead in the first place and therefore how policymakers can intervene to stop further exposure. To date, such research into the major sources of lead exposure—broadly referred to as source assessment—in developing countries has been limited. Thus, there is limited information and no global scientific consensus about the most important causes of global lead exposure. Given growing global interest in addressing lead poisoning, there is an urgent need to better understand the major sources of lead exposure in different settings by increasing the volume and quality of related research. Tailored to a policy audience, this paper offers a state-of-the-science review of methods for doing so. First, it provides background for understanding lead exposure—that is, how and why lead enters the environment, how it behaves once there, and how environmental lead results in elevated blood lead levels for humans. Second, it outlines basic principles for source assessment, including a discussion of objectives and terminology. Third, it details the range of methods available for understanding the sources of lead exposure and describes how such methods can be used in combination to understand major sources of lead exposure in a given context. Finally, it considers major policy-relevant gaps in the literature base about sources of global exposure and offers suggestions for a research agenda in this space.
Topic:: Development, Public Health, Global Health, and Lead
Political Geography:: Global Focus

340. Financing the Pandemic Cycle: Prevention, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery and Reconstruction

Author:: Victoria Fan, Sun Kim, Diego Pineda, and Stefano Bertozzi
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical gaps in the global response to health crises, particularly in the financing of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, recovery, and reconstruction. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for pandemic financing that spans the entire pandemic cycle, emphasizing the need for timely, adequate, and effective financial resources. The framework is designed to support policymakers in both low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income nations, providing a guide to appropriate financing tools for each stage of a pandemic, from prevention and preparedness to response and recovery. Key economic concepts such as global public goods, time preference, and incentives are explored to underscore the complexities of pandemic financing. The paper also highlights the importance of timely, accessible, and sustainable financial instruments. The paper lists the pandemic financing instruments used for health during the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying 23 different tools. We also used the IHME 2024 Financing Global Health database to estimate that US$91.6 billion was spent for COVID-19 health support, primarily for response financing, over 2020 to 2023. The COVID-19 pandemic wrought significant economic impacts on the order of trillions of dollars, even as investments in pandemic preparedness to mitigate future risks is relatively small, on the order of $10 billion annually. The paper concludes with policy recommendations, calling for the establishment of a rapid-response financing mechanism, tailored to the unique challenges of pandemics, and a redesign of global health governance to better address these threats.
Topic:: Finance, Crisis Management, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

341. A Win-Win: Migration Partnerships for an Aging EU Workforce

Author:: Helen Dempster, Pete Baker, and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: European Union (EU) member states have ambitious green transition targets and healthcare strategies in place, requiring the relevant sectors to expand. Yet these sectors are already suffering from large workforce shortages. Expanding skilled migration from third countries to the EU to meet these shortages risks stripping countries of origin of the talent they need for their own goals. Any skilled migration therefore needs to be pursued within partnerships which prioritise meaningful benefits to the country of origin to combat “brain drain”, a “win-win” policy solution. This can be done through the Global Skill Partnership model, wherein the country of destination pays for the training of workers within the country of origin, some of whom migrate. While migration is a member state competence, there is real opportunity for the incoming European Commission to make a global difference in three ways: (1) expand funding for pilot projects; (2) support the development of new partnerships; and (3) be a positive voice for the role of skilled migration.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Skilled Labor, European Commission, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

342. Making Migration Work for Adaptation: Classifying Remittances as Climate Finance

Author:: Samuel Huckstep and Jonathan Beynon
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Labour migration programmes targeted towards climate-vulnerable populations can provide transformative finance, raising household incomes and allowing adaptation. Current flows of adaptation finance are highly insufficient. Mobilisation of private adaptation finance is very low, despite commitments to increase mobilisation. Targeted labour migration programmes can leverage private adaptation finance at a high level of efficiency. Incentivising the selection of migrant labour from communities most vulnerable to climate change by counting a portion of their remittance flows as mobilised private climate finance may therefore have significant benefits.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Adaptation, and Remittances
Political Geography:: Global Focus

343. Localization in Theory and Practice

Author:: Ranil Dissanayake
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: The movement for localization in foreign aid presents philosophical and practical challenges for providers of foreign aid. In the past, some level of localization (to at least state actors) of both decision-making and spending could be achieved through general and sector budget support, a logistically simple (though politically difficult) approach. Current practices, with more aid disbursed in the form of discrete projects, make localization more difficult to achieve. For development agencies to make progress they must confront conceptual, practical and strategic challenges. This paper suggests practical definitions of different kinds of localization and what they seek to achieve, points out trade-offs between them and sets out how they challenge current conceptions of how and what foreign aid seeks to do, as well as suggest limits to the optimal extent and type of localization. It then considers practical difficulties in implementing these different conceptions of localization given existing donor practices and capacities, and the strategic challenges of realizing the desired outcomes—specifically principal-agent problems within the organization and with contractors. It concludes with key lessons and messages for donors and funding agencies.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Reform, USAID, and Localization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

344. Climate and Development KPIs

Author:: Ian Mitchell and Edward Wickstead
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: How committed are countries to tackling climate change at home and in developing countries? These tables provides nine key indicators on the world’s major economies spanning their climate contributions in three areas: emissions, policy, and international finance. Indicators are calculated to be comparable between countries with several expressed relative to population or economy size. Countries are ordered by the number of indicators on which they score in the best quartile, with indicators shaded for top quartile performance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

345. Multilateral Development Banks in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Overview of Key Policy, Financial, and Operational Issues

Author:: Koldo Echebarria
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This paper presents an overview of significant policy, financial, and operational challenges encountered by multilateral development banks (MDBs) in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). The data indicates that MDBs have increased their involvement in financing FCS compared to bilateral and other multilateral donors, with the World Bank playing the most significant role. This is explained by financial and operational comparative advantages inherent in the MDB business model, despite their implicit biases and constraints. The paper reviews the strategies and framework documents adopted by MDBs to address FCS as a distinct development challenge, highlighting the complexity of translating knowledge advancements and lessons learned into operational categories and clear priorities. It also examines how MDBs are placed regarding the recommendations of the "peace-humanitarian-development nexus," which is central to the international consensus for addressing FCS. The evolution of the financial capacities of MDBs and the criteria for resource allocation in response to the needs of FCS are analyzed. The paper concludes by posing a set of questions that MDBs and their shareholders should consider as they develop reforms to meet FCS-specific requirements and strengthen performance and outcomes.
Topic:: Development, World Bank, Banking, Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

346. La lucha contra la violencia contra las mujeres y la violencia doméstica

Author:: Claudia de Mesa
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: El informe destaca tres avances significativos de la propuesta de Directiva en comparación con el Convenio de Estambul. La perspectiva de género, por un lado, integrada de manera indisociable en la violencia contra la mujer y reconociendo a las mujeres como víctimas por razón de su género. En segundo lugar, el mayor alcance de la Directiva respecto al Convenio, especialmente al imponer la obligatoriedad de su transposición por parte de los Estados Miembros. Por último, que su naturaleza jurídica permite abordar a agentes no estatales. Sin embargo, se señala que tanto ambos textos omiten abordar la trata de personas con fines de explotación sexual, a pesar de ser un grave problema con una dimensión de género significativa. En este sentido, se ha pretendido analizar la estrecha interconexión entre la trata de personas y la prostitución, probándose que esta es innegable y que, además, el negocio de la prostitución-y la trata, consecuentemente- se adapta constantemente a las circunstancias para aumentar sus beneficios.
Topic:: Women, Gender Based Violence, Public Policy, and Domestic Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

347. El Ingreso Mínimo: Vital Evaluación de los tres primeros años de la gran iniciativa de protección social

Author:: Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Este documento intenta recoger los puntos de vista expresados en la jornada que tuvo lugar el día 23 de noviembre de 2023 en la sede de la Fundación Alternativas, el think-tank independiente y progresista, algo más de tres años después de la implementación del Ingreso Mínimo Vital. Los contenidos de este documento han sido elaborados por el moderador del acto, Octavio Granado, ex Secretario de Estado de Seguridad Social, y el equipo del Laboratorio de Políticas Públicas de la Fundación Alternativas. Cuentan con la aprobación, la revisión y las aportaciones de las personas que intervinieron en la jornada.
Topic:: Public Policy, Universal Basic Income, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

348. Technology-Facilitated Gender-Based Violence: An Emerging Issue in Women, Peace and Security

Author:: Kristine Baekgaard
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: As the uses and abuses of technology develop at a rapid rate, the growing threat and consequences of technology-facilitated gender-based violence (TFGBV) must be addressed by those working to advance the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda. Existing policies and programs must be adapted and new ones adopted to account for digital dimensions of gender-based violence (GBV) and to keep online spaces safe for women. Technology has helped advance women’s rights around the world in important ways. Technological tools make education and employment more accessible, and online spaces create new opportunities to build movements and amplify calls for equality and justice. These gains serve the goals of the WPS Agenda, which aims to protect and empower women in conflict-affected contexts. Along with these benefits, however, are substantial costs. Globally, 66 percent of women have reported experiencing TFGBV—including instances of cyber-harassment and stalking, doxxing, and image-based sexual abuse. Further, there are increasing reports of digital tools being used to exacerbate offline violence. For example, sexual assaults of Iranian protesters have been filmed and used to blackmail the protesters, and women in Pakistan have been killed as a result of photoshopped images being posted online. National governments and international organizations increasingly recognize TFGBV as a pressing issue. Existing research and policies focus on the impact of TFGBV on specific women—primarily, politicians and journalists—with less attention paid to the implications of TFGBV for the WPS Agenda, particularly with regard to protecting women from GBV and promoting their participation in peace processes. Given the scale, scope, and impact of TFGBV, the WPS field must evolve to account for the unique challenges women are facing in an increasingly digitized world. Based on a comprehensive desk review of existing TFGBV literature, this report explores the linkages between TFGBV and the goals of the WPS Agenda. The first section introduces the WPS Agenda, specifically focusing on its structure and the context for its creation. The next section links TFGBV with the protection goals of WPS, outlining the prevalence of existing types of digital violence and the challenges with addressing them. It further highlights the link between digital and offline violence, demonstrating that protection efforts must account for a continuum of violence. The third section draws out threats TFGBV poses to the participation goals of WPS. It identifies three key dimensions of TFGBV that hinder women’s participation in peace and politics: targeted attacks against prominent women, the “gendered chilling effect” of online violence that discourages women from participating in online spaces, and online radicalization and misogyny.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Women, and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

349. Technological Innovation and Cybersecurity: The Role of the G7

Author:: Ettore Greco and Federica Marconi
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In an era of unprecedented technological advancement, digital transformation is revealing its enormous potential, but also presenting new challenges. At its core, it represents a catalyst for innovation, igniting advancements that enhance productivity and propel economic growth. Thus, harnessing its transformative power holds the promise of unlocking new opportunities, solving complex challenges and ultimately shaping a more inclusive and sustainable future for humanity. However, rapid technological progress has ushered in a new era of interconnectedness and interdependence, where nations are increasingly reliant on digital systems and networks to power their economies and safeguard their national security. In this regard, the intersection of technological advancement and the amplification of geopolitical tensions has brought into sharp focus the myriad threats that countries face in the contemporary landscape. Among others, cyberattacks, in particular, have grown more sophisticated, transcending national borders and necessitating collaboration and partnerships among nations to protect against such threats. These challenges have prompted all major actors – both public and private – to intensify their efforts to protect their data and digital assets. They are devising and implementing a variety of risk management strategies. The empirical evidence shows that the most effective and resilient cybersecurity policies and approaches are those tailored to specific risks and security requirements. Individual organisations need to adopt the cybersecurity measures most appropriate for the challenges they face, based on a careful risk assessment. This requires the adoption of internationally recognised cybersecurity frameworks and standards that are based upon the principles of risk management and that are relevant across sectors to strengthen consistency and continuity among interconnected sectors and throughout global supply chains. Cybersecurity threats are transnational by definition and as such they can be countered effectively only through global mechanisms aimed at risk reduction and trust building. A primary objective of multilateral cooperation should be the adoption of interoperable policy frameworks that promote international harmonisation and consistent cybersecurity mechanisms. The G7 can provide a fundamental impulse for this cooperation at the global level by encouraging the development and implementation of risk-based, consensus-driven frameworks, standards and risk management best practices. A commitment to these internationally recognised cyber risk management approaches and frameworks can advance economic security and enhance cyber resilience across the ecosystem.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, G7, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

350. The “latecomers” of Bougainville: The difficult completion of post-conflict disarmament processes

Author:: Theò Bajon
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Post-conflict disarmament processes inherently grapple with definitional challenges regarding definitive endpoints and measures of completion. This paper examines the phenomenon of delayed disarmament through the case study of so-called “latecomers” in Bougainville—ex-combatants who voluntarily surrendered their weapons following the cessation of formal demobilisation, disarmament, and reintegration programming. This study proposes a behavioural model that conceptualises late comer decisionmaking dynamics pertaining to temporary small arms retention. Pivoting upon an iterated security dilemma framework, the model posits that contextual environmental stressors and temporal factors serve as key variables initially sustaining weapons possession in the absence of hostilities. However, this intermediate status carries risks of eventual escalation to renewed violence or protracted and arduous disarmament engagement. The latecomer case reveals the inherent fluidity and uncertainties surrounding delimitations of the disarmament process. Further interrogating ex-combatant dilemmas could strengthen post-conflict policy and practice. Fundamentally, this research demonstrates the enduring temporal ambiguities inherent to disarmament, highlighting the need for pluralistic understandings attentive to issues of indigeneity, humanity, and interpretive meaning central to sustainable peace-building.
Topic:: International Security, Disarmament, Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

351. Gender diversity management in NATO for sustainable security and peace

Author:: Kamila Trochowska-Sviderok, Yvonne Rose Masakowski, Montgomery McFate, and Anne Holohan
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The article focuses on the need for a paradigm shift in diversity management for sustainable peace and security. We discuss the bidirectional influence of security and defence organisations and society; the intersectionality of issues related to social justice, health, race, and ethnicity; sexual abuse and exploitation; and cultural factors that influence the functioning of LGBTQ+ personnel and the gender/technology nexus in the context of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). During the application of the Sustainable Security Paradigm to gender diversity management, we found that ecofeminism and the ideas of post-colonial theory should inform the transformational shift of contemporary security and defence organisational cultures. This approach was used by the multinational NATO Science & Technology Organization Exploratory Team ET-197 Gender, Peace and Sustainable Security (2022-23) and its successor, the NATO HFM-368 Research Task Group (2023-26). Our research efforts were triangulated by an analysis of doctrinal textual, audiovisual and art sources that relate to gender diversity and its management. Given the complexity of future warfare, there is a strategic imperative to develop an inclusive defence strategy that reconfigures the traditional white male-focused military paradigm. It is evident that the root cause of gender inequality cannot be solved solely by doctrine and training solutions—rather a transformational organisational culture shift is pivotal and critical to the future global security. This is the first article that addresses the issues of gender diversity management for sustainable security and peace in an interdisciplinary and holistic manner. Our approach is relevant to any organisation with internal gender and intersectional diversity and systemic discrimination.
Topic:: NATO, International Security, Social Justice, Sustainability, and Gender Minorities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

352. Techno-Realism: Navigating New Challenges in the Contemporary Role of Technology in Politics

Author:: Isti Marta Sukma
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper aims to introduce a new theory, techno-realism, which is derived from political realism, to help comprehend the complex connections between technology and politics. According to techno-realism, technology serves as a means of power, with the innate drive for survival in human nature shaping the formation of identity. The research question at the core of this study revolves around the extent to which technology influences contemporary political science and whether it truly serves as a means of power. Three concepts are introduced: identity establishment, technology as the central source of power, and non-state actors in politics. The primary case study focuses on the complexity of the issue in Xinjiang, examining the application of cyberpolitics in the region. The second case study explores technology’s role in Indonesia’s political power struggle, as evidenced by its 2024 elections and the abuse of information and electronic transaction law effectiveness to control freedom of speech. Additionally, this paper introduces a case study on the Indo-Pacific regional power dynamics in confronting “digital authoritarianism”. This paper underscores the imperative for a new theoretical framework, adapted from political realism, which despite being subject to considerable criticism, has the potential for further development, placing technology at the core of analysis. Recognising the central roles of technology, identity formation, and non-state actors, techno-realism offers valuable insights for navigating complex political landscapes and informing strategic responses to emerging challenges. However, further research is needed to understand completely its applicability and limitations across different contexts, as demonstrated by the case studies presented in this paper.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Elections, Realism, and Techno-realism
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Asia, Global Focus, and Xinjiang

353. The role of military morale as an essential dimension of combat power

Author:: Mioara Șerban
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper focuses on the principles and values that guide human behaviour as well as judgements about what is considered ethical. The objectives of this analysis are threefold: (1) to explore the role of morale as an essential dimension of combat power, (2) to identify perceptions and representations related to the importance of military morale in managing stress during wartime or on a field mission, and (3) to identify possible ways to improve the resilience of military personnel deployed on the battlefield within the organisational culture. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including qualitative methodologies to examine the role and impact of psychological training and self-confidence in military settings along with quantitative methodologies that include specific questions regarding demographics and military experiences. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with thirty-two military personnel with direct experience in missions, conflict zones, or theatres of operations. Soldiers’ perceptions, formed by their states of necessity and subjective character, contribute to satisfaction, shaping the scope of motivation, and confirming that soldiers’ morale directly influences their actions on the battlefield. Accomplishing a mission requires not only the precise definition of objectives and the provision of the necessary tools but also an appeal to factors that stimulate, raise awareness, and activate personnel. The findings reveal measures that can be taken to manage stress in combat, including subjective ones, deriving from the military’s confidence and conviction in the legitimacy of the cause and the justice of the war, group integration, personal beliefs and hopes as well as objective ones, such as external mass influences, the media or the states involved, which affect the security of the military. The results of the study emphasise the importance of the initial training of the military at individual and group levels, or under leadership of superiors, together with the solidarity of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union member states in supporting the families of the military and improving their situation from various perspectives: economic, material, orale, civil protection, and child protection.
Topic:: Security, Motivation, Morale, Combat Power, and Military Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

354. Leveraging competitive intelligence in offensive cyber counterintelligence: An operational approach for the shipping industry

Author:: Anastasios-Nikolaos Kanellopoulos
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: In the contemporary landscape of rapid digitalization, the shipping industry is increasingly confronted with unparalleled cybersecurity threats, necessitating a transition towards proactive strategies to address these evolving risks. Traditional methodologies have proven inadequate, thereby necessitating the integration of Competitive Intelligence (CI) within Offensive Cyber Counterintelligence (OCCI) frameworks. This paper investigates the interdependent relationship between CI and OCCI, underscoring their combined potential to safeguard organizational interests and enhance cybersecurity resilience. The primary objectives of this study are to elucidate the foundational principles and significance of CI within business contexts, to explore the theoretical underpinnings of OCCI, and to propose a structured framework for the integration of CI into OCCI operations specifically tailored to the shipping sector. Theoretical constructs highlight the critical importance of proactive measures in mitigating cyber threats and sustaining a competitive advantage in the digital era. Through a comprehensive analysis of the literature, this interdisciplinary approach provides practitioners with the opportunity to evaluate and implement the proposed framework. The insights garnered from this study hold significant implications for both academic research and industry practice, promoting ongoing collaboration in the development of robust frameworks for integrating CI within OCCI operations.
Topic:: Intelligence, International Security, Cybersecurity, Resilience, Shipping, Strategic Management, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

355. Security scenarios: 3D Printed Firearms

Author:: Samu Rautio and Mika Broms
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this study was to determine possible future scenarios if 3D printed firearms were to be manufactured in society. These scenarios provide a closer examination of the factors influencing the use of this relatively new method of firearms production. We reviewed the factors in 3D printed firearms that are relevant to various security authorities. Scenario analysis enables the examination of problem-solving for this multi-dimensional, multi-layered and multi-scale phenomenon. The topic was approached from a systemic perspective based on complexity thinking. The scenario-creation method employed five forecasting techniques applicable to the Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation (Carleton, 2013). A context map created the basis for factor analysis, generational arcs, white spots and expert panel. The scenarios were developed into a structural format, allowing for the description of coherent entities. Upon analysing the scenarios, it was found that the ease of manufacturing 3D printed firearms could lead to a rapid increase in their numbers, potentially resulting in decreased internal and external security. The networking of manufacturers could also enable the production of weapons for individuals who previously did not have access to firearms. On the other hand, 3D printed firearms could open up new legal uses and possibilities. The networking of manufacturers could also enable the production of weapons for individuals who previously did not have access to firearms. On the other hand, 3D-printed firearms could open up new legal uses and possibilities.
Topic:: Security, Weapons, Forecast, Manufacturing, and 3D Printing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

356. The Copenhagen School’s widening security theory in relation to cybersecurity. Applicability and Implications

Author:: Mihai Olteanu
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper critically examines the relationship between cybersecurity and Copenhagen School’s widening security theory, with the aim of assessing the possibility of applying this theoretical framework to the cyber realm. As cybersecurity is a relatively recent addition to the security discourse, this research explores whether the Copenhagen School’s traditional framework, which was primarily focused on securitisation processes in the five main sectors (military, political, economic, environmental, and societal), adequately encompasses the unique aspects and dynamics of cyber domain. The research question is: Why the cybersecurity field can’t become a separate constructivist sector? The study begins with a detailed overview of both cybersecurity landscape and Copenhagen School’s fundamental principles to provide the context for a comparative analysis of the Copenhagen theory and contemporary cybersecurity literature. In doing so, the research delves into the features of cybersecurity, with a focus on the evolving nature of cyber threats and vulnerabilities. By performing a qualitative analysis of the existing literature, the paper assesses the limitations of integrating these two concepts, ultimately concluding that cybersecurity lacks the distinct characteristics required to be considered a separate sector under the Copenhagen School’s framework. The findings contribute to the ongoing discussions regarding the adaptation of traditional security theories to address contemporary security challenges in the digital age.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Copenhagen School
Political Geography:: Global Focus

357. A Generalised Commodity Theory of Exploitation

Author:: Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: This paper argues that the conceptual framework of Marx's Capital allows for the extraction of a commodity-based theory of capitalist exploitation that is distinct from the traditional labour-value based theory. The rationale for extracting such a theory is that it allows for an explanation of the current rise in global economic inequality in a way that shows this development to be entirely consistent with the fundamental laws of capitalism as it enters its globalised and financialised stage of development.
Topic:: Globalization, Capitalism, Commodities, Exploitation, and Financialized Capitalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

358. Tracking the Fortunes of Corporate Psychedelia

Author:: Sandy Hager
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: In recent years, new biotech companies have emerged hoping to cash in on a medical psychedelics market expected to be worth billions. This article examines the business models of two of the largest such companies. According to conventional wisdom, for-profit players are best positioned to deliver new cures for mental illness at scale because of their ability to tap capital markets. The analysis presented here challenges this story on two counts. First, it argues that profitability in the pharmaceutical business depends not on rapid scaling per se, but on controlling and restricting access to maintain pricing power. Second, it claims that the unruliness of psychedelics – manifested in the presence of cheap generics, murky intellectual property claims, and high costs of administration – raises serious questions about their commercial viability. The article then assesses the sector’s embrace of Johnson and Johnson’s patented form of esketamine, Spravato, as its prototype for commercialization. Spravato may provide a pathway for profitability, but patients must contend with high prices and a drug that provides only short-term relief and requires indefinite dosing. Rather than disrupt Big Pharma, corporate psychedelia replicates its main features, raising questions about its claims to tackle the mental health crisis.
Topic:: Business, Mental Health, Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, Psychedelics, and Medicalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

359. Is “High Inflation” Always and Everywhere an Exchange Rate Phenomenon?

Author:: Tural Yusifzada, Hasan Cömert, and Kagan Parmaksiz
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: After decades of stable and low levels of inflation throughout the world, the recent global upsurge in inflation has once again triggered extensive debate among economists about the underlying reasons for the rising trend in inflation. This study aims to contribute to this ongoing discussion by exploring a potential channel that could be fundamental to our understanding of the high inflation levels common across a large number of countries. Drawing upon a rich historical dataset spanning from 1961 to 2023 and employing a random effects panel probit model, our research reveals that the nominal exchange rate depreciation emerges as a strong predictor of “high inflation” episodes across different economies and time periods. Notably, this predictive capability extends to countries with varying income levels, with high-income, upper-middle-income, and lower-middle-income nations exhibiting success rates of 70%, 77%, and 63%, respectively, in forecasting “high inflation” based solely on exchange rate depreciation. Furthermore, food and energy prices also emerge as other important contributors to inflation. These findings have important implications for recognizing exchange rate depreciation as a vital early warning signal for high inflation not only facilitates more timely and effective policy interventions but also emphasizes the critical role of historical exchange rate dynamics and supplyside factors in comprehending the complexities of “high inflation.”
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Early Warning, and Panel Probit Model
Political Geography:: Global Focus

360. The Profitability of Bank Capital and Household Debt

Author:: Hyun Woong Park
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: When does the banking sector profitability exceed the industrial sector profitability? In a benchmark, counterfactual scenario where banks lend to industrial firms only, the industrial profitability exceeds the bank profitability unless the banks’ financial intermediation technology is sufficiently advanced and the industrial sector’s leverage ratio is sufficiently high. In a more realistic scenario where the banks lend not only to the industrial firms and but also to households, which rely on bank loans for housing, vehicle, education, etc., the bank profitability exceeds the industrial profitability when the household sector’s total debt services are sufficiently large, regardless of the levels of the banks’ financial technology and the industrial sector’s leverage ratio. It suggests that the households’ debt and interest payments are potentially a important source of the bank profitability exceeding the industrial profitability. That is, the bank capital beat the industrial capital in terms of profitability by exploiting the households’ financial conditions that force them to rely on debt for their full reproduction. Lastly, this result is empirically confirmed through the ARDL cointegration analysis with the U.S. quarterly data for 1984–2020.
Topic:: Debt, Economy, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

361. External Debt Stress and Domestic Debt Restructuring: Resolving a Paradox

Author:: C. P. Chandrasekhar
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was signalled by instances of default or failure to meet external debt obligations denominated in hard currencies. But the response to the crisis has included attempts to restructure domestic sovereign debt issued largely in domestic currencies. Such moves have been justified by identifying the crisis as one of excessive aggregate public debt rather than just unsustainable levels of external debt. There is a need, it is argued, to reduce the gross financing needs (foreign and domestic) of debt-stressed governments that have accumulated excessively high levels of aggregate—domestic and foreign currency—public debt. This assertion ignores the difference between the stress associated with servicing debt in domestic and foreign currency. Governments can mobilise domestic resources using their sovereign right to tax and central banks have control over domestic currency supply, whereas both have little control over foreign currency availability, which depends on net foreign revenues earned and on net inflows of foreign incomes, transfers and capital. While domestic debt restructuring releases domestic resources, it does not automatically yield the foreign currency needed to relieve external debt stress. In addition, since the holders of domestic sovereign debt include citizens deploying their savings to invest in pension funds, insurance products and mutual funds, and commercial banks parking resources in ‘safe investments’, restructuring that debt through explicit or implicit haircuts is bound to be economically destabilising. Past savings would be eroded with adverse impact on current demand, and the damage to the balance sheets of banks would restrain credit to the detriment of consumption and investment. This makes implementation of domestic debt restructuring costly and difficult, as experience illustrates. Given that context, the paper examines the possible reasons why when less developed countries face external debt stress, the IMF and global finance insist on domestic debt restructuring as part of conditions associated with provision of emergency balance of payments finance or the restructuring of foreign debt.
Topic:: Debt, Investment, Currency, and Debt Restructuring
Political Geography:: Global Focus

362. Inequality and the Environment: Global Inequality Research Award Lecture

Author:: James K. Boyce
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This lecture, delivered at the ceremony for the inaugural Global Inequality Research Award at Sciences Po in Paris, provides a trajectory of the author’s work on inequality and the environment that was recognized by the award. Thirty years ago, many economists and environmentalists saw inequality as a non-issue. Today there is widespread recognition of its importance. The lecture reviews how inequalities in the distribution of wealth and power affect both the magnitude and incidence of environmental harms and discusses some of the synergies between policies to reduce inequality and to improve environmental quality.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

363. Towards a Post-neoliberal Stabilization Paradigm: Revisiting International Buffer Stocks in an Age of Overlapping Emergencies Based on the Case of Food

Author:: Isabella Weber and Merle Schulken
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The neoliberal stabilization paradigm of interest rate hikes and austerity left economies around the world unprepared for the shocks to essentials experienced in the overlapping emergencies of war, conflict, climate change, and pandemic. This presents a window of opportunity for a paradigm shift. Neoliberalism became hegemonic through stabilization policy. Post-neoliberalism will require an alternative stabilization paradigm. In this paper we revisit the classic reasoning for buffer stocks by Keynes, Kaldor, Graham, and others as a starting point for this paradigmatic shift. At the core of the neoliberal stabilization paradigm are the assumptions that competitive markets are efficient and that relative price changes ought to be separated from macro-outcomes. In contrast, buffer stock reasoning starts from the inherent instability and inefficiency of commodity markets. Price volatility in essential commodities can lead to sellers’ inflation because of the interaction with administered prices in the industrial sector and can hamper growth and development prospects. We illustrate that the buffer stock reasoning can help understand the 2020-2023 world food price crisis and propose a multi-layered buffer stock system for food staples as a steppingstone in a gradualist transition to post-neoliberalism and a tool for a green transformation of agriculture.
Topic:: Food Security, Finance, Neoliberalism, Macroeconomics, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

364. The Growth of Private Financial Markets

Author:: Lenore Palladino and Harrison Karlewicz
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Over the past decade, “private” financial markets, which face little oversight by regulators, have grown to the point where they dominate financial activity. Private funds have approximately tripled in size in the last decade to $26 trillion in gross assets (compared to the $23 trillion in the U.S. commercial banking industry). Private markets raise more in equity than public markets: in 2021, new stock issuances resulted in $434.7 billion, while private markets raised $1.73 trillion in committed funds that same year–almost four times as much. Private markets are structured differently–organized into funds by asset managers as limited partnerships, which shields general managers from liability. The primary dealers in these private markets are venture capital, private equity, private credit funds, and private real asset managers. In this working paper, we examine four institutional shareholder types: public and private pension funders, endowment plans, and foundations. Institutional shareholders now allocate 28-35% of their assets under management to the “alternative” assets of private markets. Pension funds alone currently account for $2.7 trillion in committed funds to private financial markets, the latter of which has ballooned to $26 trillion in gross assets. This development potentially represents new systemic risks to the economy at large and for the institutional shareholders participating in these markets.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Regulation, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:: Global Focus

365. Marx on Credit and Financial Crises: The Industrial Cycles and the English Experience in the 19th Century

Author:: Henrique de Abreu Grazziotin
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper presents Marx’s theory of the industrial cycles, creating a synthesis and organizing his approach to this topic, which is fragmented throughout Part 5 of Capital Volume III. Marx’s theory of the industrial cycles explains why and how the credit system periodically drives capitalist production to endogenous business cycles that lead to crises of credit-driven overproduction and financial fragility. The paper presents the basic theoretical elements needed to understand the credit system in Marx’s approach, to later organize Marx’s theory, characterizing each phase of the cycle and indicating the causes of the movements observed for the credit dynamics, which directly affects the capitalist reproduction. It also presents Marx’s historical interpretation of the 1847 crisis in England, analyzing each phase of the cycle and associating it with Marx’s theoretical perspective.
Topic:: Capitalism, History, Macroeconomics, Industry, and Karl Marx
Political Geography:: Global Focus

366. Beyond Punishment: From Criminal Justice Responses to Drug Policy Reform

Author:: Global Commission On Drug Policy
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Commission On Drug Policy
Abstract:: The Global Commission on Drug Policy’s report, Beyond Punishment: From Criminal Justice Responses to Drug Policy Reform, exposes how punitive drug policies have driven mass incarceration and grave human rights violations. In 2023 alone, over 3.1 million people were arrested for drug-related offenses, with 20% of the global prison population detained for such crimes - nearly half for simple possession. The report underscores the devastating consequences of prohibitionist policies, including over one million overdose deaths in the U.S. in the past two decades and 40,000 in Canada in just eight years. It also highlights systemic inequities, such as Indigenous peoples in Canada being six times more likely to face drug-related arrests than white counterparts. Furthermore, the report illustrates the disproportionate burdens on women and children, deepening cycles of poverty and marginalization. It examines the broad spectrum of criminal justice responses to drug offenses, ranging from stop-and-search practices that disproportionately target marginalized communities to extreme measures like the death penalty and enforced treatment. These approaches often violate human rights, perpetuate stigma, and fail to address the root causes of substance use. Offering a roadmap for reform, the report advocates for evidence-based strategies, including harm reduction measures (e.g., Overdose Prevention Centers, naloxone distribution, and safer supply programs), decriminalization and the legal regulation of drug markets. These approaches not only save lives but also reduce societal harms, foster dignity, and promote health and equity.
Topic:: Human Rights, Reform, Criminal Justice, Mass Incarceration, Drugs, and Harm Reduction
Political Geography:: Global Focus

367. 2021–2022 Global Resources Report: Government & Philanthropic Support for LGBTI Communities

Author:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:: The 2021–2022 Global Resources Report: Government & Philanthropic Support for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex Communities is the most comprehensive report to date on the state of global funding for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) issues. This report documents data on over 20,000 grants awarded by nearly 1,300 foundations, intermediary NGOs, and corporations and by 16 donor government and multilateral agencies to over 8,000 grantees during the two-year period of 2021–2022.
Topic:: Civil Society, LGBT+, NGOs, Philanthropy, Funding, Transgender, Resources, and Intersex
Political Geography:: Global Focus

368. The State of Intersex Organizing 3rd Edition

Author:: Julia Lukomnik, Somjen Frazer, Mauro Cabral Grinspan, and Ezra Nepon
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:: The third edition of the State of Intersex Organizing survey was launched in October 2023 and received participation from 151 intersex respondents worldwide. The results provide illuminating insight into intersex organizations’ priorities, activities, needs, and experiences. The survey results also document their funding sources, budget sizes, and other elements related to movement sustainability, as well as their capacity to serve intersex people. The reports include the findings of global surveys, comparison with Global Resources Report funding data, case studies, recommendations, and more.
Topic:: Civil Society, LGBT+, NGOs, Intersex, and Organizing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

369. The State of Trans Organizing 3rd Edition

Author:: Julia Lukomnik, Somjen Frazer, Mauro Cabral Grinspan, and Ezra Nepon
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:: The third edition of the State of Trans Organizing survey was launched in October 2023 and received participation from 449 respondents worldwide. The results provide illuminating insight into trans organizations’ priorities, activities, needs, and experiences. The survey results also document their funding sources, budget sizes, and other elements related to movement sustainability, as well as their capacity to serve trans people. The reports include the findings of global surveys, comparison with Global Resources Report funding data, case studies, recommendations, and more.
Topic:: LGBT+, NGOs, Transgender, and Organizing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

370. Building peace from the inside phase II: Supporting insider mediation for the sustainable transformation of conflict

Author:: Marine Jacob, Claudia Maffettone, Stephanie Sarta, Nura Detweiler, and Victoria Cochrane
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: The objective of these short policy briefs is to inform national, regional and international institutions on key topics related to insider mediation and to inform the development of more holistic and supportive policies for insider mediators. While women still face cultural, logistical and security barriers in their participation in local mediations, they are able to play critical and unique roles in mediating family, land, socio-economic, and environmental conflicts, contributing to a high success rate of mediation agreements. The value of building and supporting (informal) networks of insider mediators is key in environments that do not always welcome the contributions of civil society and where more flexible and nimble networks can act as early warning and response mechanisms, raising the chances to achieve sustainable and transformative peace.
Topic:: Women, Mediation, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

371. Policy Brief 18: Sacred values in high-level peace negotiations Recommendations informed by neuro- and cognitive science

Author:: Carla Schraml
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: In an era where violent conflicts are increasingly complex and deeply rooted in sacred values and identities, traditional peacemaking strategies often fall short. Deeply held beliefs, as they are core to identity, are not only difficult to negotiate but also challenge conventional tactics for transforming conflicts and settling violence. Integrating insights from neuro- and cognitive sciences can enhance the practice of designing communication and processes for high-level peace negotiations. Drawing on neuroscience-informed research and insights from global (high-level) peace processes, the recommendations for peace practitioners in this policy brief emphasise the relevance of emotional and psychological underpinnings of conflict.
Topic:: Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Peacebuilding, Peace Process, Neuroscience, and Cognitive Science
Political Geography:: Global Focus

372. Friendshoring the Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain: Final Assembly and End Uses

Author:: William Alan Reinsch, Meredith Broadbent, Thibault Denamiel, and Elias Shammas
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Policies surrounding the lithium-ion battery (LIB) supply chain lie at the intersection of trade, climate, and national security considerations. The LIB supply chain spans the globe, and yet some critical inputs are only produced in a handful of countries—in particular China, which is dominant at several key stages of the technology’s production. The Biden administration appears to have three central, yet misaligned, objectives regarding the LIB supply chain: de-risking away from China’s dominance, reshoring manufacturing capabilities, and accelerating the green transition. To spur the technology’s production and deployment, the United States must undertake several economic and trade policy changes to address gaps in its current approach.
Topic:: Innovation, Lithium, Supply Chains, Energy, and Friendshoring
Political Geography:: Global Focus

373. Crafting a Robust U.S. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

Author:: Sanam Rasool, William Alan Reinsch, and Thibault Denamiel
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in the United States presents an intricate policy challenge at the intersection of climate action and international trade. With countries around the world integrating climate considerations into their trade policies, the United States is under growing pressure to develop and implement its own CBAM. This policy tool, already adopted by the European Union, is geared toward leveling the playing field for domestic industries while promoting global climate action and accountability. A future U.S. CBAM could serve as a vital instrument in the nation’s transition toward a net-zero economy, encouraging domestic carbon footprint reduction and driving trading partners to adopt cleaner practices. However, crafting and rolling out such a mechanism comes with knotty challenges, ranging from choosing optimal carbon accounting methods and pricing to warding off potential trade disputes and garnering global collaboration. As the United States charts its course through this complex policy landscape, it has the opportunity to shape global climate action while safeguarding its economic interests.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

374. Defense Priorities in the Open-Source AI Debate

Author:: Masao Dahlgren
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: A spirited debate is taking place over the regulation of open foundation models—artificial intelligence models whose underlying architectures and parameters are made public and can be inspected, modified, and run by end users. Proposed limits on releasing open foundation models may have significant defense industrial impacts. If model training is a form of defense production, these impacts deserve further scrutiny. Preliminary evidence suggests that an open foundation model ecosystem could benefit the U.S. Department of Defense’s supplier diversity, sustainment, cybersecurity, and innovation priorities. Follow-on analyses should quantify impacts on acquisition cost and supply chain security.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

375. Economic Diplomacy in the Modern Geopolitical Context

Author:: Dmitry Birichevsky
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: ON SEPTEMBER 7, 1944, an economic department was formed at the People’s Commissariat for Foreign Affairs of the USSR, marking the beginning of modern Russian economic diplomacy. Over the course of its existence, the current Department of Economic Cooperation (DEC) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has undergone numerous transformations, gradually expanding its functions as the foreign economic agenda has expanded and become more complex. The DEC is celebrating its 80th anniversary amid radical geopolitical changes that will shape the configuration of the future world order. This is a period of significant challenges and great responsibility, as well as remarkable opportunities. The current historical phase is marked by significant turbulence in the international relations system, as the collective West’s claims to civilizational exceptionalism have proven untenable and Western regulatory mechanisms have failed to ensure sustainable development of the global economy. The Western powers are attempting to maintain their dominance by systematically weakening potential rivals and securing a generally subordinate position for countries of the World Majority.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Integration, Economic Diplomacy, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

376. The Biological Weapons Convention: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:: Jaroslav Krasny
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Amid geopolitical challenges that have led to the weakening of international arms control and disarmament efforts, the Ninth Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) Review Conference (RevCon) provided a “glimmer of hope” for control and disarmament regimes. Delegates at the Non-Proliferation Treaty RevCon in 2022 and the Chemical Weapons Convention RevCon in 2023 were unable to reach a consensus on these conferences’ respective final documents. By contrast, the Ninth BWC RevCon held from 28 November to 16 December 2022 successfully adopted the final document. While conflicting positions on how to reflect recent allegations that some states are undertaking biological-weaponsrelated research prevented agreement on the article-by-article review, the final document included a forward-looking section that established a Working Group on the Strengthening of the BWC. This Working Group is designed to “strengthen the effectiveness and to improve the implementation of the Convention” and generate recommendations for enhancing and institutionalising it across a number of important areas, including confidence-building measures (CBMs), transparency, compliance and verification, and the national implementation of the BWC. The Working Group's sessions, therefore, provide a long-awaited opportunity to address several critical issues related to the Convention, including international cooperation and a verification mechanism. The Working Group also presents a valuable opportunity to advance work on national implementation under Article IV and interlink obligations. The recent convening of the Working Group from 4 to 8 December 2023 and the subsequent meeting of states parties from 11 to 13 December offer pertinent insights into progress made in strengthening the BWC. Ahead of the next session of the Working Group scheduled for August 2024, this Policy Brief seeks to outline some of the security challenges presented by biological weapons and lay out some of the policy implications and recommendations that flow from these challenges.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Biological Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

377. Strengthening a Rights-Based Approach to United Nations Peace Operations

Author:: Charles T. Hunt and Adam Day
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: During a July 2020 open debate the United Nations (UN) Security Council highlighted the crucial roles human rights play in peace operations, including by providing early warning of issues or problems, supporting good offices, improving the protection of civilians, strengthening national rule-of-law capacities, ensuring due diligence/compliance for military operations, leading a range of protection-related activities and supporting efforts to protect political space in fragile settings. Despite this recognition of the important role of human rights, there has been relatively little research into how human rights support the implementation of the mandates of a range of peace operations, leaving the evidence base for understanding the contribution of human rights to peace operations very thin. The purpose of this policy brief is to chart out key complexities linked to operationalising a rights-based approach to peace operations. It identifies and introduces critical challenges to mandate implementation through specific themes, including the contribution of human rights to the protection of civilians, stabilisation mandates, smaller-footprint field offices, the political work of special envoys and mission transitions. The paper examines both theoretical and operational aspects of human rights in peace operations. In line with the High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations report (2015), it discusses human rights considerations in relation to a range of UN peace operations, including peacekeeping and special political missions, regional prevention offices, and special envoys. The first section locates human rights components and concerns across a spectrum of UN peace operations, comparing how human rights contribute to a wide range of peace and security engagements. The second section highlights several challenges to realising human rights aims and objectives in field missions. The final section proposes a series of questions that warrant further discussion to elucidate and support a rights-based approach to peace operations that could help to respond to the call in the New Agenda for Peace for a reflection on the limits and future of UN peacekeeping and other ongoing policymaking within the UN system. The paper illustrates that in order to support the UN’s recommitment to its core principles and human rights pillar, there is a need for greater attention to the ways that human rights can support the analysis and strategic positioning of UN peace operations.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Global Focus

378. Geopolitical Features, Common Interests and the Climate Crisis: The Case of the Arctic

Author:: Lassi Heininen
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In the 1990s an inspiring sense of a “new North” became apparent in Arcticrelated ideas and innovations that indicated the end of the Cold War period. This included arms control initiatives, cross-border cooperation and sustainability “to decrease military tension and increase political stability”, an emerging environmental awakening among peoples and societies, knowledge-building by indigenous peoples and the scientific community, and new forums for opening up discussions on regional development. The Arctic seemed to be in a state of constant transformation (geo)politically, economically, culturally and environmentally. Some of the outcomes of these processes were impressive, transforming the Arctic from a site of military tension to one reflecting geopolitical stability. When analysing this transformation and the ways in which the Arctic states reconstructed their geopolitical reality prior to 24 February 2022, the main conclusion is that this would not have been possible without key features of Arctic geopolitics, security and governance creating suitable conditions for cross-border cooperation, which correspondingly increased stability. In the same way, cooperation, mostly in terms of fields of low political interest, was made possible because the eight Arctic states shared similar interests. But now this transformation, which is also called the “Arctic model”, is threatened by a new transformation from a state of high geopolitical stability to one characterised by the uncertainties of the climate crisis and new East-West tensions, resulting in a pause in pan-Arctic cooperation during which the Arctic Council has not been able to return to business as usual. The focus of this Geneva Paper, based on the author’s previous studies and personal observations after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, is this new transformation and its influences on cooperation. The aim is to assess whether the fundamentals of the previously applicable common interests are still valued, and to what extent they could be used as the means for confidence-building in the region. Similarly, if the fundamentals of the special features of Arctic geopolitics, security and governance are in place, the question then becomes to what extent they could be interpreted as prerequisites for more widespread cooperation and geopolitical stability. Finally, if the search for stability that was the original ultimate aim of the Arctic states and Arctic indigenous peoples were still valued, would it motivate the Arctic states’ governments to more effectively align their policies when facing the climate crisis. This could be done by integrating cooperation on environmental protection, climate change mitigation, and science into their climate and foreign policies. Much is clearly at stake, for if we lose the region’s human-made peace dividend that was consciously built during the 35 years before February 2022, then the multiple crises and world disorder that are looming and threatening the entire world community would be much more difficult to resolve.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Arctic and Global Focus

379. Triggering Investment in First-of-a-Kind and Early Near-Zero Emissions Industrial Facilities

Author:: Chris Bataille, Seton Stiebert, and Jonas Algers
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: Among the most significant challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement goal of global net-zero CO2 emissions by 2055–2075 is addressing the so-called “hard-to-abate” heavy industrial sectors such as iron and steel, cement and concrete, ammonia, methanol, and high value feedstock chemicals like olefins. These sectors accounted for 7.5 Gt CO2 or 20.4 percent of global emissions in 2021, and global demand for their products will only rise until broad development goals are met everywhere. Moreover, nearly all heavy industrial plants being planned or in construction today are fossil based, with the exception being a handful of small-scale pilot facilities. Given that plants tend to operate for at least 20 years before their first deep renovation, and 40–80+ years overall, these new ones will likely still be in operation by the time global CO2 emissions must be net-zero (~2050–2060), after which heavy industry players that are still emitting will likely need to pay for CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. The cumulative CO2 emissions between now and then and the likely very high cost of CDR are driving society, governments, and firms to make near-zero emissions the default minimum standard for all new and retrofit facilities by the end of the 2020s. However, fulfilling that standard is no easy task. The main bottleneck is less technological in nature than financial and market based. At the current state of the art, near-zero emissions plants simply cost more than fossil-based plants, and meanwhile, no demand pull or market exists for lower-emission industrial products. Given the urgency of the task at hand amid the global climate crisis and the current lack of a business case to undertake it, strong policy signals can be used to incentivize early investment in near-zero-carbon heavy industry. This report, part of the Carbon Management Research Initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, explores financial policy instruments that can make first-of-a-kind (FOAK) near-zero emission industrial facilities viable. The report finds that such FOAKs can then be used as low-risk, replicable models for rapidly transforming the “hard-to-abate” sectors and ultimately facilitating a transition to full net-zero emissions for industry as a whole.
Topic:: Climate Change, Investment, Industry, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Abatement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

380. Using New Marginal Emissions Data to Improve State Renewable Portfolio Standards

Author:: Devan Samant, Abraham Silverman, and Zachary A. Wendling
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: The majority of US states use a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) to achieve clean energy targets. RPS programs typically set annual clean energy production levels, but they ignore the significant variations in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of the grid at different times of the day and at different locations. Newly available locational marginal emissions (LME) data, which are collected at thousands of physical locations and updated every five minutes, provide insights into where and when the electricity sector produces the most and least GHG emissions. Incorporating LMEs into RPSs would allow states to identify and reward “high impact” clean energy production: that which replaces the dirtiest generation. This report examines the impact that incentivizing clean energy production at high LME times and locations could have on reducing emissions in RPS programs. In five scenarios based on data from four states in the PJM grid (Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia), the authors examine hypothetical shifts in energy production from times and geographic areas with differing clean or dirty generation mixes. The proof-of-concept exercises the authors ran found that shifting clean energy production into the three dirtiest hours of the day resulted in approximately 10% less emissions than the baseline case. Geographically shifting production to displace energy at a dirtier locale resulted in 9%–20% less emissions, depending on the LME makeup at the given location versus the baseline.
Topic:: Regulation, Electricity, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

381. Estimating the Number of Women Household Biomass Producers, the Largest Segment of the Global Energy Labor Force

Author:: Philippe Benoit and Siyuan Ding
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:: While tens of millions of people work in formal energy jobs around the world, another group that comprises a massive and key labor segment in this sector is often overlooked: women and girls producing biomass to meet the basic energy needs of millions of poorer households across the developing world. Some 2 billion people rely on biomass for cooking (and some for heating), making those who gather it critical players in the global energy supply system. Women and girls in many developing countries constitute the majority of people collecting fuelwood for household consumption—an often strenuous and time-consuming effort—and estimating their number could elevate the importance attached to improving their working and living conditions. While some initial estimates of this labor force have been made, analyses remain superficial. This report, part of ongoing research into energy for development and gender dynamics at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, attempts to improve this deficit, providing a systemic albeit rough estimation—given minimal available data—of the number of women household biomass producers. An analysis of clean cooking access rates, population figures, and average household sizes for both rural and urban areas in 92 developing countries estimates that 389 million women and girls undertake this work, which would represent the largest labor segment of today’s global energy system.
Topic:: Development, Labor Issues, Women, Energy, and Biomass
Political Geography:: Global Focus

382. Ads and Editorials: How Pretreatment Reduces the Persuasiveness of Interest Group Advertisements

Author:: Matthew Lesenyie
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:: Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:: Advertising studies commonly examine the effects of one-sided treatments. However, political communication campaigns are competitive environments where voters are likely to hear more than one perspective. Because of this dynamic, the persuasive effects of single-sided ads may be less likely to hold in a competitive environment. When respondents are exposed to arguments from both sides of a ballot proposition issue, can the disclosure of a credible group help an advertisement overcome prior opinions? I address this question using a randomized experiment that includes ballot proposition campaign ads. In the experiments, I manipulate the pretreatment environment by exposing some respondents to a newspaper editorial in order to provide them with prior opinions that might cause them to resist subsequent advertisements. I also vary the presence or absence of campaign finance disclosure within the advertisements. In all cases, the presence of a credible editorial is associated with a change in support for the initiative. However, the use of a credible campaign finance disclosure has a far less consistent effect. While campaign finance disclosures from credible groups can help counteract prior beliefs that citizens may hold, I find that the magnitude of these changes is somewhat small.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Campaign Finance, Advertising, and Interest Groups
Political Geography:: Global Focus

383. COP29: Reason for Hope Despite the New Climate Financing Deal

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Although COP29 did not deliver a satisfactory new climate financing figure, other developments outside of the UNFCCC give reason to hope for a sustained momentum for climate action.
Topic:: United Nations, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

384. Health Security of Low-Wage Migrant Workers Post-COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the importance of addressing the welfare of low-wage migrant workers. This includes improving their working and living conditions, better access to healthcare, and more social interactions with local communities.
Topic:: Security, Health, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

385. Agriculture and Food at COP28: Not Just More Money

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The recent COP28 Climate Summit has finally given due recognition to food and agriculture given the close links between climate change and food production. While the summit saw a big push to operationalise the newly established Loss and Damage Fund, limited attention was given to agriculture in discussions on the said fund. Rather than focusing on drawing from the new fund to promote sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural practices, greater attention is needed instead to mobilising existing funds.
Topic:: Agriculture, Food, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

386. Alternatives to the U.S. Dollar as a Global Currency Face Brick Walls

Author:: Piotr Dzierżanowski
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In the wake of a series of economic and political crises, including developing countries’ external debt crisis and Russian aggression against Ukraine and related sanctions, there has been speculation about the possible replacement of the U.S. dollar (USD) in the global economy. This could take place through the emergence of a new global currency or a shift to settlements in the currencies of the transacting parties. Either of these solutions involves political and economic difficulties and is not currently realistic. It is advisable that Poland, in its foreign policy, assumes the continuation of the dominance of USD in the global economy.
Topic:: Debt, Economy, Currency, and Dollar
Political Geography:: Poland and Global Focus

387. Countries at Risk for Intrastate Mass Killing 2024–25: Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment Results

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: Policy makers face the challenge of simultaneously responding to ongoing mass atrocities and trying to prevent entirely new mass atrocity situations. A critical first step toward prevention is accurate and reliable assessment of countries at risk for future violence. The Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment uses publicly available data and statistical modeling to produce a list of countries ranked by their estimated risk of experiencing a new episode, or onset, of intrastate mass killing. This report aims to help identify countries where preventive actions may be needed. Earlier identification of risk broadens the scope of possible preventive actions. In essence, our statistical model identifies patterns in historical data to answer the following question: Which countries today look most similar to countries that experienced mass killings in the past, in the year or two before those mass killings began? The historical data include basic country characteristics, as well as data on governance, war and conflict, human rights and civil liberties, and socioeconomic factors. This report highlights findings from our Statistical Risk Assessment for 2024–25, focusing on: Countries with the highest estimated risk of a new mass killing in 2024 or 2025 Countries where estimated risk has been consistently high over multiple years Countries where estimated risk has increased or decreased significantly from our last assessment Countries with unexpected results We emphasize that this assessment is just one tool. It is meant to be a starting point for discussion and further research, not a definitive conclusion. We aim to help governments, international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations determine where to devote resources for additional analysis, policy attention, and, ultimately, preventive action. We hope that this report and our Early Warning Project as a whole inspire governments and other organizations to invest in their own early warning capabilities.
Topic:: Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

388. Social Bonds: A Lifeline for Atrocity Victims

Author:: David Scheffer, Caroline Kaeb, and Madeline Babin
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: This report examines the funding gaps that undermine the delivery of sufficient funds—reparations and assistance—to victims of “atrocity crimes” (genocide, crimes against humanity, and serious war crimes) and options for developing a funding mechanism in the form of a social bond for the benefit of such victims. The report aims to generate an innovative means to scale funds in order to meet the immediate and long-term needs of survivors and those adversely impacted by atrocity crimes. This exercise has become even more vital in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic as funding shortages have erupted for human rights and humanitarian priorities across the globe. This is no small matter. The victim populations of atrocity crimes encompass the survivors of ongoing atrocities in addition to those stretching back years and decades. Atrocity victims currently number in the tens of millions globally. Addressing their needs—both with short-term provision of assistance to meet victims’ economic, health, and living requirements in the immediate aftermath of atrocities as well as with the long-term objectives of securing justice and reparations—remains at the forefront of policy priorities. The victim populations of atrocity crimes encompass the survivors of ongoing atrocities in addition to those stretching back years or even decades, including the assaults on civilians in Afghanistan, the Balkans, Cambodia, central Africa, Colombia, Darfur, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Iraq, Myanmar, North Korea, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Syria, Ukraine, Xinjiang (China), Yemen, and many other regions and countries. Stripped of their human rights, and often enduring the losses of their relatives or friends, millions of these oppressed peoples are internally displaced or forced to flee as refugees. Tribunals, transitional justice mechanisms, and some domestic courts endeavor to hold criminally accountable those responsible for atrocities. Just as the millions who perished during or survived the Holocaust continue to be entitled to criminal justice and reparations, those who have endured contemporary atrocities seek compensation for the injustices suffered. This is proving increasingly difficult.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Atrocities, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

389. Increasing the Policy-Relevance of Research on Atrocity Prevention Strategies and Tools: Toward a 10-year collaborative research program

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: On June 7, 2024, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide convened leading social scientists, policy makers, and funders of policy-relevant research for a one-day workshop to explore how the Center should contribute its staff resources and research budget to improving policy-relevant research about atrocity prevention strategies and tools. Participants discussed the following topics: • Positive examples of research informing policy on atrocity prevention and general lessons to be drawn from these cases; • Key obstacles to policy-relevant atrocity prevention research, including gaps in the topics covered by the literature, obstacles to inference about the effects of atrocity prevention policy actions, and obstacles to synthesizing findings from a large body of studies; and • Strategies to increase the volume, relevance, quality, and impact on policy of atrocity prevention research. This rapporteur's report summarizes the workshop’s key themes in accordance with the Chatham House rule of non-attribution.
Topic:: Genocide, Research, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

390. How Cities in Developing Countries View Climate Change

Author:: Yoon Jae Ro
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The article explores the perceptions of climate change among urban residents in developing countries, focusing on health risks, economic disruptions, and personal responsibilities. It highlights the role of education, income, rural ties, and media exposure in shaping awareness of climate change. Despite willingness for climate action, government financial measures face resistance. Public trust in governments influences views on domestic policies, while international collaboration is seen as essential yet fraught with power imbalances. The study emphasizes tailored, region-specific strategies and equitable global cooperation to address urban challenges and foster effective climate governance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Health, and Cities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

391. Data Concentration and Competition in Digital Platforms

Author:: Hyunsoo Kim
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Policy discussions in major countries regarding access to data as a means of promoting competition in the digital platform market are taking place within the framework of existing legislation. The existing legal framework determines whether access to data is necessary based on whether the data is essential for competition in the relevant market and whether it can only be obtained from the dominant platform. In competition law, discussions about whether other companies can access a dominant firm’s resources have traditionally taken place under the so-called essential facilities doctrine. Whether data is essential for competition in a given market cannot be determined uniformly. However, existing literature suggests that narrowly defined essential data does not exist in many markets, and it is also difficult to find such data in markets related to large digital platform companies like Google or Amazon. This is because businesses can be established and operated in search engines or online marketplaces without having extensive user data. From this perspective, the role of competition law in ensuring access to data under the existing legal framework is inherently limited. These limitations arise not only in relation to the essential facilities doctrine but also in the process of applying competition policy. Competition policy typically takes a long time to implement, while the rapidly changing business environment of the digital platform market requires companies to quickly identify business opportunities in order to enter the market. Even if it is proven that a dominant company has used its data in an anticompetitive manner, it is extremely difficult to impose appropriate remedies that could restore the market to its previous competitive state. Additionally, designing complex remedies and continuously monitoring compliance with competition policy is not easy, which is why there are ongoing discussions about the need for ex ante regulation. However, ex ante regulation also has its own costs and drawbacks, so the practical benefits of implementing such regulations must be carefully evaluated.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Data, and Digital Platforms
Political Geography:: Global Focus

392. Net International Investment Position Surplus: A Key to Reconciling Financial Stability and Internationalization

Author:: Young Sik Jeong and Yena Song
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study examines the influence of net international investment position (IIP) on financial stability and financial internationalization. We find a strong correlation between creditor status (IIP surplus) and resilience to financial crises. Net creditor countries appear to act as buffers, with foreign assets returning to the home country during potential crises, thus preventing deterioration in external sector soundness. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that external financial assets positively affect the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of financial service. Specifically, the positive relationship between external financial assets and financial service RCA is more pronounced during periods of net IIP surplus compared to net IIP deficit periods. Our findings suggest that a net IIP surplus is beneficial for both financial stability and international competitiveness.
Topic:: Economics, Investment, Financial Stability, Internationalization, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

393. Lessons from COVID-19: Managing Borders in the Next Global Public-Health Crisis

Author:: Meghan Benton and Lawrence Huang
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: In March 2020, the global mobility system shut down in previously unimaginable ways. As COVID-19 cases multiplied, governments closed borders and introduced sweeping travel restrictions, entry bans, and suspensions of asylum and refugee resettlement. These policies evolved over time, giving rise to a complex web of mobility restrictions, conditions, and exemptions for certain groups, with undeniable consequences for societies and economies around the world. Four years on, migration has returned to the pre-pandemic norm, but governments should not forget the costs of unplanned, long-lasting, and stringent travel restrictions. This is a key moment to examine the pandemic’s lingering impacts on mobility as well as to build a bench of evidence-based tools to manage mobility during future public-health crises. This brief highlights the importance of mobility measures that are clear, equitable, streamlined, and prepared to adapt to future challenges. This capstone brief concludes a series of studies by MPI’s Task Force on Mobility and Borders during and after COVID-19 that explores opportunities to improve international coordination regarding border management during public-health crises. Regional case studies in this series look at Asia and the Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America. Its thematic studies consider the role of digital health credentials in facilitating movement, the use of risk analysis to shape border policies, and the rise of remote work and “digital nomads.”
Topic:: Migration, Borders, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

394. Managing International Protection Needs at Borders

Author:: Lucía Salgado, Susan Fratzke, Lawrence Huang, and Emma Dorst
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: National borders are one of the primary apertures through which publics perceive and judge migration trends and policy. Dysfunction at borders has implications that go well beyond national security, affecting commerce and trade as well as human mobility of various kinds. For asylum seekers, who generally must reach another country’s territory in order to seek protection, borders can represent the difference between danger and safety. As publics in many countries become increasingly vocal in their dissatisfaction with the management of their nation’s borders, policymakers face the difficult task of designing border systems that prevent the outbreak (or perception) of chaos, even as major displacement crises and the complexities of mixed humanitarian, economic, and family reunification migration strain outmoded infrastructure. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—examines the key elements of an effective and protection-sensitive border system. It begins with an overview of what makes border management challenging at the best of times, and particularly so amid acute displacement crises. It then explores the core features of border processes capable of responding to mixed migration while protecting the right to seek asylum, and what conditions need to be in place for these procedures to be successful.
Topic:: Migration, Borders, Asylum, Protection, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:: Global Focus

395. The End of Asylum? Evolving the Protection System to Meet 21st Century Challenges

Author:: Susan Fratzke, Meghan Benton, Andrew Selee, Emma Dorst, and Samuel Davidoff-Gore
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The international protection regime is under increasingly untenable pressure, and the obsolescence of the policy architecture on which it relies is becoming more and more apparent. The territorial asylum system, which requires asylum seekers to reach another country’s territory in order to seek protection, has proven itself to be a blunt tool with which to address the protection challenges of the 21st century. New crises, protracted displacement situations, and expanding norms about who merits protection have created a growing population of individuals in need of humanitarian protection. At the same time, other mobility pressures—including those rooted in demographic shifts, economic inequality, and climate change—have produced high levels of mixed migration, adding to the strain on border and asylum adjudication systems. This report, which concludes the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung, sets out a vision for the ongoing evolution of the international protection system, with a focus on the future of asylum. It analyzes promising developments and best-in-class ideas around facilitating orderly entry, ensuring system efficiency, and building regional capacity, and how these elements could foster a system that is better at providing protection for those who need it and at securing public trust by reducing chaos at borders and within public systems that must manage migration.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Borders, Asylum, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

396. Engaging Employers in Growing Refugee Labor Pathways

Author:: Emma Dorst, Kate Hooper, Meghan Benton, and Beatrice Dain
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Refugee labor pathways, which focus on helping displaced people with in-demand skills access existing economic immigration channels, have attracted considerable attention in recent years. The appeal is two-fold: From a humanitarian perspective, they open additional opportunities for refugees and other displaced people to move to safety. From a labor market perspective, they offer access to an additional talent pool at a time when many employers are struggling to recruit qualified workers. Such programs now exist in several countries, with the largest in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Designed and implemented as a partnership between these countries’ governments and the nongovernmental organization Talent Beyond Boundaries (TBB), these pathways aim to help jobseekers overcome obstacles that can be exacerbated by displacement, such as difficulty connecting with potential employers or providing identity or credential documentation. As these programs progress from the pilot stage, the central role employers play and their impact on efforts to achieve scale have gone largely unexplored. This first-of-its-kind report aims to fill this gap by examining employers’ experiences with recruiting displaced talent and ideas for program improvements. The analysis, conducted by MPI and drawing on unpublished TBB survey data on employer engagement, draws in part on consultations with employers, policymakers, and civil-society stakeholders.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, and Refugees
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Global Focus

397. Bridging the Gap between the Gig Economy and Migration Policy

Author:: Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh and Meghan Benton
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The gig economy—that is, work or services mediated through digital platforms and generally performed by independent contractors or freelancers—has been a growing fixture of the global economy for more than a decade, expanding considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic. Though data and research are uneven, a growing body of evidence indicates that immigrants are at the heart of this growing sector in many economies worldwide. As governments have grappled with the meteoric rise of the gig economy, however, migration and migrants have been somewhat of an afterthought. Many governments have focused on how to classify workers, while others have sought to expand eligibility for minimum wages and holiday or sick pay to gig workers. But even where policymakers have sought to think creatively, they have largely overlooked key considerations in the migration policy space. This policy brief examines government responses around the globe to the rise of the gig economy and migrant employment within it, and how gig economy labor policies and migration policies could be adjusted to benefit migrants, receiving communities, and labor markets. The brief starts with an introduction to the gig economy, who works in it, and some common challenges faced by gig workers of all origins. It then considers key questions at the intersection of gig work and immigration and integration policy, offering recommendations for ongoing policy conversations and future research.
Topic:: Economy, COVID-19, Gig Economy, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

398. Public Opinion of Climate Migrants: Understanding What Factors Trigger Anxiety or Support

Author:: Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan and Lawrence Huang
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Climate change and extreme weather events are predicted to dramatically alter patterns of human mobility around the world. This poses an urgent policy question: How will receiving communities react to the arrival of people displaced by disasters and climate impacts? The degree of public support for newcomers can shape how policy responses are designed, implemented, and received by the public. But public opinion is not always easy to predict, nor is it static or fixed. A review of polling and experimental data from around the world suggests that climate migration may trigger anxiety if accompanied by a sense of disorder, unfairness, or loss of control, but also that communities can rally to support large displaced populations, given the right conditions. Efforts to increase support for climate migrants often draw on common narratives—of urgency, of climate migrants’ victimhood, or of their ability to make positive contributions to climate action—but these all come with their own risks and trade-offs. This issue brief looks at what is known about public opinion of climate migrants, and what lessons can be gleaned from broader efforts to mitigate public anxiety and build welcoming communities in the context of rapid societal change. It reflects on how common narratives can create environments more or less welcoming of climate migrants, and how they shape the space policymakers have to think creatively about how to manage climate migration.
Topic:: Migration, Public Opinion, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:: Global Focus

399. The Role of Immigrant Workers in the Green Transition

Author:: Kate Hooper and Lawrence Huang
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Governments around the world have committed to decarbonizing their economies, but green transition goals will hinge on recruiting workers with the right skills to fill jobs in sectors such as clean energy. Apprenticeship and training programs, including for workers displaced from higher-polluting sectors, will be an important part of meeting this challenge. But it takes time to develop and scale up such programs, and the urgency of cutting global emissions has pushed policymakers and employers to also consider other strategies, including recruiting workers from abroad. This issue brief reviews the evidence on labor shortages in the green economy and on immigrant employment in green and brown (carbon-intensive) jobs. It then assesses the implications for immigration policymaking, including on admissions, immigrant integration, and international labor migration partnerships. Immigration, the authors argue, already plays and will continue to play a key role in the green transition, but there are risks to relying on immigration alone to address these labor shortages. Instead, immigration policy updates should be paired with other investments, including in worker reskilling, credential recognition, and global talent pool development.
Topic:: Migration, Carbon Emissions, Green Transition, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

400. Displacement and International Protection in a Warming World

Author:: Samuel Davidoff-Gore and Lawrence Huang
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Most climate-related displacement occurs within a country’s territory, but when people cross borders, it poses particular challenges. Policymakers in destination countries face the task of simultaneously managing borders and addressing arriving migrants’ emergency assistance and protection needs. Yet, the migration and refugee policy tools available are rarely, if ever, designed with climate displacement in mind. There is no consensus, for example, on what status climate-displaced people should receive, what rights and benefits they are entitled to, and how states should respond if climate change has rendered their homes uninhabitable. And unless policymakers proactively manage climate displacement, these movements can further weaken already fragile migration management and asylum systems. This issue brief explores what role the international protection system can and should play in responses to cross-border climate displacement and highlights steps policymakers could take to diversify the policy toolkit beyond the protection realm.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Refugees, Displacement, Protection, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS