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102. 3 International Climate Priorities for 2024
- Author:
- Anne Christianson, Trevor Sutton, and Frances Colon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- As President Joe Biden’s first term draws to a close, his administration must deliver on three international climate policies to catalyze a 21st-century clean energy economy and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, Economy, Inflation, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
103. Extreme Heat Is More Dangerous for Workers Every Year
- Author:
- Jill Rosenthal, Rosa Barrientos-Ferrer, and Kate Petosa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- Federal and state governments should step up efforts—including adopting heat standards—to address increased on-the-job heat-related injury, illness, and death.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Health, Labor Issues, Regulation, and Heat Waves
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
104. Protecting Children From Extreme Heat Is Critical for Their Health, Learning, and Development
- Author:
- Allie Schneider, Paige Shoemaker DeMio, and Hailey Gibbs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- As climate change intensifies extreme heat around the globe, policymakers must take steps to develop heat standards for children and support infrastructure improvements to ensure schools, child care centers, and communities are safe and healthy places for children.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Education, Children, Child Development, and Heat
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
105. The Price of War
- Author:
- Jonathan Federle, André Meier, Steffen Müller, Willi Mutschler, and Moritz Schularick
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- In an integrated global economy, the economic fallout of war is not confined to the country where the conflict is fought but spills over to other countries. We study the economic effects of large interstate wars using a new data set spanning 150 years of data for more than 60 countries. War on a country’s territory typically leads to an output decline of 30 percent and a 15 percentage point increase in inflation. We find large negative effects also for countries that are geographically close to the war site, irrespective of their participation in the war. Output in neighboring countries falls by more than 10 percent over 5 years, and inflation rises by 5 percentage points on average. Negative spillovers decline with geographic distance and increase in the degree of trade integration with the war site. For very distant countries, output spillovers can turn positive so that wars create winners and losers in the international economy. We rationalize these findings in an international business cycle model, calibrated to capture key features of the data. As the war destroys capital in the war site and productivity falls, trade with nearby economies decreases, generating an endogenous supply-side contraction abroad.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, War, Business, Geoeconomics, Russia-Ukraine War, Spillovers, and Supply Shocks
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus
106. New Trade Models, Same Old Emissions?
- Author:
- Robin Sogalla, Joschka Wanner, and Yuta Watabe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the elusive role of productivity heterogeneity in new trade models in the trade and environment nexus. We contrast the Eaton-Kortum and the Melitz models with firm heterogeneity to the Armington and Krugman models without heterogeneity. We show that if firms have a constant emission share in terms of sales — as they do in a wide range of trade and environment models — the three models’ emission predictions exactly coincide. Conversely, if firms have a constant emission intensity per quantity — a prominent alternative in the literature — the emission equivalence between the three models breaks. We provide a generalization that nests both constant emission shares in sales and constant quantity emission intensities as special cases. We calibrate the models to global production and trade data and use German firm-level data to estimate the key elasticity of how emission intensity changes with productivity. Our multi-industry quantification demonstrates that the role of firm heterogeneity depends both on the model and the estimated parameters. Moving from the Armington model to the EK model increases the emissions effect on trade, while moving from the Krugman model to the Melitz model decreases the emission effects on trade.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Carbon Emissions, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
107. Build Carbon Removal Reserve to Secure Future of EU Emissions Trading
- Author:
- Wilfried Rickels, Mathias Fridahl, Roland Rothenstein, and Felix Schenuit
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- • A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. • Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. • This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. • Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. • To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating resultbased carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. • This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden’s or Denmark’s, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. • An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Carbon Central Bank
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
108. Sovereign Haircuts: 200 Years of Creditor Losses
- Author:
- Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 percent. The data also reveal that “serial restructurings”, meaning two or more debt exchanges in the same default spell, are on the rise. To account for this trend toward serial renegotiation, we introduce the “Bulow-Rogoff haircut” – a cumulative measure that captures the combined creditor loss across all restructurings during a single debt crisis. Using this measure, we show that longer debt crises deliver larger haircuts and that interim restructurings provide limited debt relief. We further examine past predictors of the size of haircuts and identify “rules of thumb” applicable to future defaults. Poorer countries, first-time debt issuers, and those that borrowed heavily from external creditors all record significantly higher haircuts in case of a default. Geopolitical shocks – such as wars, revolutions, or the break-up of empires – deliver the deepest haircuts. Sovereign debt investment disasters are often linked to (geo-)political disasters.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, Credit, Sovereign Debt, Emerging Economies, Debt Restructuring, and Sovereign Default
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
109. International investment income: patterns, drivers, and heterogeneous sensitivities
- Author:
- Giovanni Donato and Cedric Tille
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Financial globalization has led to a large increase in international asset holdings. While the rise of associated dividend and interest flows has until now been muted by the decreasing trend in interest rates, this pattern could change, leading to a larger role of investment income flows in the balance of payments. We use a broad sample of countries to document the heterogeneous evolution of the various components of investment income flows, with a rising role of FDI and equity income, especially in advanced economies. We then assess the impact of various variables on yields with a panel analysis. Various drivers have highly heterogeneous effects across investment categories and country groups, often impacting the yields on both assets and liabilities. This translates into substantial heterogeneity in the response of countries’ income balance, due to different compositions of asset and liabilities. This heterogeneity is amplified if we consider country-specific estimates in complement to the panel ones. Focusing on the impact of changes in interest rates, we find that higher rates only had a limited impact in the 2013 taper tantrum, investment income balances are likely to benefit from higher US rates in the current phase of higher rates, with offsetting effects of higher domestic rates.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, Investment, Interest Rates, and Financial Integration
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
110. Beyond Borders: Do Gender Norms and Institutions Affect Female Businesses?
- Author:
- Holger Görg and Ina C. Jäkel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we investigate whether gender norms and institutions act as a constraint to the performance of female businesses. We exploit novel and unique micro data on start-ups in Denmark, which we combine with information on individual-level characteristics of the entrepreneur as main decision maker of the firm. We overcome the challenge of disentangling norms and institutional biases against women from other constraints and hurdles that female businesses might face by exploiting detailed trade data. In this trade context, we study the relative performance of firms across markets with varying institutions, while controlling for other factors that affect female businesses uniformly across all markets. We provide evidence that gender inequality and institutional biases against women in trade partner countries play an important role in explaining gender differences in export and import behaviour. We also perform an event study of a concrete policy change in a destination market – the introduction of quotas for the share of females on the boards of directors in Norway – and how it has affected the gender gap in trade participation.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inequality, Startup, Gender, Opportunity, and Firm Internationalization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
111. When the Exception Overtakes the Rule: COVID-19, Security Exemption Clauses, and International Investment Agreements
- Author:
- Kayla Maria Rolland
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Goettingen Journal of International Law
- Institution:
- The Goettingen Journal of International Law
- Abstract:
- In the trade and investment law regimes built in the post-war period, “security exemption clauses” were included within trade and investment agreements as a safety valve, permitting States to deviate from their commitments in the event that their security interests were implicated. Initially, these clauses were understood to be narrowly limited to instances of war and interstate conflict. With the rise of the national security state in the decades since, however, the concept of security interests has ballooned to encompass an ever-growing set of issues, with some fearing that the rules may become irrelevant. This has been particularly facilitated through “third generation” security exemption clauses and their inclusion of self-judging language. The COVID-19 pandemic in particular adds a new dimension to this phenomenon. As a case study analysis of the text of the Chile-Hong Kong, China SAR bilateral investment treaty (BIT) will demonstrate, it may be feasible for States to invoke security exemption clauses to justify measures taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in some contexts, particularly with third generation, self-judging security exemption clauses. The expanding notions of security exemption clauses have significant implications for the investor-State dispute system as a whole.
- Topic:
- Security, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, COVID-19, and International Investment Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China and Global Focus
112. A New Vision for Peace Operations
- Author:
- Eugene Chen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Over the past eight decades, United Nations (UN) peace operations have demonstrated themselves to be valuable tools for prevention, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding. But they have also struggled to meet the expectations of their varied audiences, including the Security Council, host governments, and local populations. Many of these struggles stem from the supply-driven approach to how missions have been planned and deployed, which drives many of the shortcomings that are evident in missions today, such as sprawling mandates that are not focused on the political solutions necessary to resolve conflict, templated approaches to mission design and mandate implementation, and friction with other UN entities and organizations. Although these shortcomings are present throughout the mission lifecycle, they are particularly evident now with ongoing drawdowns and transitions in Mali, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and as countries increasingly turn to alternatives to UN peace operations, such as peace enforcement and counterterrorism operations undertaken by regional organizations and ad hoc coalitions, despite their poor track record at fostering lasting peace. A new approach to peace operations is necessary to overcome these shortcomings, one that acknowledges that UN peace operations always operate in an environment alongside other actors and that no single entity or organization has the capacity and resources to tackle the full range of activities required to help a country towards sustaining peace. In advocating for a shift in the planning, design, and management of UN peace operations, this report provides ideas for how to implement recommendations from A New Agenda for Peace as well as considerations for the upcoming 2025 peacebuilding architecture review (PBAR). Elements of this approach can already be put into practice as part of transition contexts, where the Peacebuilding Commission and the General Assembly can play an important role in considering follow-on arrangements and how to provide countries with tailored packages of support to national prevention strategies. By allowing peace operations to better meet the expectations of key stakeholders such as the host government and Security Council while reducing friction with the UN country team and other actors, this new approach can help overcome the current crisis of confidence in UN peace operations and ensure that the UN can continue to play an important role in the maintenance of international peace and security in a time of increasing geopolitical contestation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
113. Tipping the Scales: Towards a People-Centered Justice Approach to Resilience in Fragile Contexts
- Author:
- Jonathan Papoulidis, Swati Mehta, and Nate Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Once synonymous with food security, resilience has undergone a quiet revolution over the last decade, shifting from a sector silo to an emerging paradigm of engagement for donors and multilateral institutions. This paper traces the evolution and importance of this emerging resilience paradigm and the simultaneous rise of people-centered approaches to justice (PCJ). It argues that PCJ is a vital but missing element of the new resilience paradigm and key to its success. The paper proposes a conceptual framework for a PCJ approach to resilience and offers a few illustrative examples of how the framework might be applied to fragile contexts and beyond. The examples used are not prescriptive, but rather intend to offer grounding to what is otherwise a largely conceptual framework. The application of the framework will require additional resources, on-the-ground research, and comprehensive analysis. Ultimately, the paper argues that humanitarians, peacebuilders, resilience experts, and justice actors must work together to tip the scales of justice in favor of people’s resilience in fragile contexts.
- Topic:
- Displacement, Justice, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
114. The Pact of the Future—Financing Issues
- Author:
- Betty N. Wainaina and Sarah Cliffe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Submissions for the Summit of the Future were requested at the end of 2023. CIC developed and submitted a short input on financing and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This note lays out our rationale and narrative concerning financing for development. Why is financing such a contentious issue? In part, this is because the events of the last few years have increased global financing needs—for pandemic recovery and preparedness, for climate, for social protection and economic development to overcome price shocks and other international pressures. In addition, global financing plays a role in escalating grievances about double standards. Double standards are, of course, a broader argument, from failure to coordinate COVID-19 vaccines to questions over different applications of international humanitarian and human rights law in Ukraine versus Palestine. Financing plays a role here, however, because of obvious inequities following COVID-19. HICs spent 24 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on stimulus and social protection programs in the first year of COVID-19; MICS could spend only 6 percent and LICS only 2 percent. Debt distress has risen dramatically in the last four years; 25 percent of emerging market countries are at high risk of default, while among low-income countries 60 percent are either at high risk of default or already in default. Some of the reasons financing paragraphs became contentious in recent resolutions are more process-based. Using the SDG Summit Political Declaration as an example, the draft text was too detailed in some respects and laid open challenges as to what should be decided in different governance structures. Some areas were insufficiently tailored to the current state of debate at the IFIs, G20, and other international platforms, risking being out of date at the time of publication. In some aspects, they were not specific enough, missing an opportunity to bring new ideas to the table. Last, they did not focus sufficiently on the core comparative advantage of a UN platform for these discussions, which is to link the achievement of the SDGs, global political stability, and peaceful international relations with financing.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
115. Taking Stock of 2023 and Looking Ahead to 2024: How to Combine Realism with Hope?
- Author:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The final months of 2023 were extraordinarily grim. The world had already weathered four years of repeated crises. The horrific attack on Israel carried out by Hamas on October 7 has resulted in a response by Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) that has ignored all norms of international humanitarian and human rights law. This has resulted in an estimated 20,000+ deaths to date. CIC’s annual 2023-2024 analysis outlines takeaways from the previous year and key trends for the new year. Notably, it delves into major global conflicts impacting international peace, lesser-known trends, and economic disparities. Additionally, it explores prospects for 2024, including potential peace breakthroughs and advancements in revamping outdated multilateral approaches. In Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel, and the appalling suffering caused by Israel’s attempt to wipe out Hamas in Gaza, it is evident that double standards have been applied in matters concerning human rights and that, despite the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, societies still struggle to recognize the common humanity of their adversaries. At the same time, crises in other regions and long-term challenges, such as debt and socioeconomic pressures, struggle to garner any attention. This has spurred visceral political responses in many countries, turning inward and perhaps “sleepwalking” toward greater global catastrophe, as we have seen in the past in less interconnected times.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Peacebuilding, Russia-Ukraine War, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
116. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence at the World Bank—Recommendations for the Spring Meetings
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Friedman, Betty N. Wainaina, and Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The World Bank Governors meet at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank (WB) Spring Meetings this week to discuss progress on the World Bank’s Evolution Roadmap. Much of this discussion will focus on financing, including commitments to the hybrid facility and the prospects for the upcoming International Development Association (IDA) replenishment. Equally important, however, is whether and how the World Bank continues to play a leading role in international support to countries affected by fragility, violence, and conflict. In this piece, the authors provide recommendations for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings 2024, considering how the World Bank Evolution Roadmap addresses conflict, fragility, and violence; and the importance for the Bank to maintain its financial allocations to prevention in the upcoming International Development Association round of financing.
- Topic:
- Development, World Bank, Conflict, Violence, IMF, and Fragility
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
117. The Inequalities-Environment Nexus: Tools for Catalyzing a Just Transition
- Author:
- Roshni Menon and Paula Sevilla Núñez
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Transitioning to a green economy is imperative for all countries, and many have already started their journeys. The process of planning and executing a transition presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to ensure the movement toward an environmentally sustainable and climate-safe future that benefits society as a whole and occurs in a just and equitable manner. A transition towards a greener economy is fundamentally also a matter of justice: it can save lives and improve livelihoods, as well as address historic injustices. Importantly, a just green transition can address people’s fears and uncertainties about potential negative effects on economies, livelihoods, and the environment, thus preventing backlash to the coming change and instead, widening political support. As part of collaborative effort between the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies hosted at the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University (NYU), the International Climate Initiative for a Just Energy Transition (IKI JET) by the German Agency of International Cooperation (GIZ), and the Ministry of Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia (BAPPENAS), this report was developed in preparation for a workshop on just green transition administered in Bogor, Indonesia on November 2–3, 2023. This resource covers the following topics: Conceptual definition, sector affected, opportunities, and challenges for just transition. Fundamental pillars in catalyzing a just transition, including distributional impact assessments (DIA), an intersectionality-based policy analysis (IBPA) framework, and social dialogue.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, Green Transition, and Green Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
118. Beyond Access: Refugees’ Rights and Justice at Work
- Author:
- Emily E. Arnold-Fernández
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Work plays a central role in the lives of refugees. When work is just, it offers economic power, personal agency, and often a sense of meaning, purpose, or even identity. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognize the importance of justice in relation to work. Goals 8 (decent work and inclusive economic growth) and 10 (reduced inequality) are only possible when work is just. Too often today, however, refugees have access to work only in conditions of grave injustice. Wage theft, sexual assault, and other workplace violations are common. Restrictions on refugees’ access to authorized work push them into informal, unregulated employment where justice is inaccessible. These problems show us that, to achieve SDGs 8 and 10 for refugees, we must also achieve SDG16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all. This paper aims to lay a common foundation for solutions to the justice problems refugees face in the labor market and also supports the thesis that ensuring access to justice in the workplace for refugees can facilitate mutual gains, uphold human rights, and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Agenda.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Displacement, Justice, Humanitarian Crisis, and Work
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
119. Strengthening Violence Prevention at the UN: 11 Overlooked Facts
- Author:
- Céline Monnier and Joanne Richards
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief argues that UN and member state efforts to prevent violence are often ineffective because why violence occurs is not well understood. The authors highlight the critical role of risk and protective factors in violence prevention work and outline 11 facts that are frequently overlooked when policymakers attempt to stop violence from occurring. To increase the effectiveness of prevention efforts, policymakers should be aware of these critical points and incorporate risk and protective factor analysis into existing UN diagnostic tools and inter-governmental processes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacebuilding, and Violence Prevention
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
120. The Private Sector as a Partner and an Agent for Violence Reduction
- Author:
- Marta Bautista Forcada, Luisa Portugal, and Bojan Francuz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The pivotal role of the private sector in society extends beyond economic contributions. It also influences social dynamics and communities’ well-being and cohesion. This report delves into the complex and multifaceted relationship between business entities and local initiatives aimed at preventing and reducing the most serious forms of violence in communities. It presents an analysis of ongoing initiatives, with a focus on exploring the existing interactions and untapped potential of private sector actors in fostering safer environments, which in turn contributes to ongoing global mobilization efforts1 to reduce levels of violence by at least 50 percent by the year 2030. Historically, the responsibility of maintaining communal peace and security has been primarily shouldered by governmental and public institutions. However, the evolving societal landscape has ushered in a paradigm shift, recognizing the private sector’s important influence and responsibility in this domain. Most businesses, from small enterprises to multinational corporations, inherently seek stable environments for their operations, which then aligns their interests with the broader societal goals of violence prevention and community safety. This research examines the varied spectrum of private sector entities, delineating their roles and impacts within different local contexts, with a focus on urban areas. It underscores the dual nature of businesses as both beneficiaries of peaceful environments and potential contributors to enhancing the risks of violence in such environments. Through a series of case studies, the report is primarily concerned with showcasing successful collaborations between the private sector and community initiatives aimed at violence reduction, with a focus on those occurring in urban contexts. These examples serve to illustrate how businesses can act as catalysts for positive change, employing their resources, influence, and networks to foster a culture of peace and stability. Furthermore, the piece proposes a framework for viewing the private sector as a partner with a vested interest in violence reduction efforts and the halving global violence agenda, as well as recommendations for engagement and interventions. In doing so, this report aims to streamline collaboration between businesses, governmental bodies, and civil society, ensuring a unified and comprehensive approach to addressing the root causes of multiple forms of violence and enhancing community resilience. This report reevaluates the roles of business in society and underlines the need to further invest in examining the private sector impact on violence reduction. It advocates for an integrated approach where the private sector is recognized as a crucial ally in the quest for peace and security, aligning economic objectives with societal needs. By harnessing the private sector’s potential as a partner in violence reduction, the research contributes to the broader discourse on achieving sustainable peace and advancing the United Nations (UN)’s global development agenda—the 2030 Agenda—for a more peaceful, inclusive, and just world.
- Topic:
- Development, United Nations, Partnerships, Violence, Private Sector, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
121. Beyond the Battlefields: Practical Strategies to Halving Global Violence in Our Homes, Streets, and Communities
- Author:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- In the report, “Beyond the Battlefields: Practical Strategies to Halving Global Violence in Our Homes, Streets, and Communities,” the Halving Global Violence Task Force at NYU’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC) presents a comprehensive roadmap to cut global violence by half. This pivotal analysis culminates a three-year collaborative effort involving international policymakers, distinguished researchers, field experts, and activists. The report emphasizes that halving global violence is not only a visionary goal but an actionable imperative. It outlines practical, evidence-based strategies to tackle violence across all spheres of society, underscoring the potential for significant economic and societal benefits. By adopting these strategies, the global community can forge a safer, more equitable society for future generations. Key highlights reveal that most violence occurs outside conflict zones, affecting diverse demographics worldwide. It also provides detailed strategies that have proven successful in various global cities, emphasizing low-cost, innovative solutions that can radically reduce violence. It is an essential read for leaders and policymakers committed to fostering international peace and security.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
122. From Rhetoric to Reality: Uncovering Strategic Division and the Linkages Between Polarization and Inequality
- Author:
- Raquel Jesse
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- Amid the economic, climate, and health crises, in addition to deteriorating socio-economic conditions and escalating conflicts in many contexts around the world, societies are facing a new major threat: fragmentation. That is, many societies are experiencing a mixture of increased divisions at various levels of society characterized by worsening polarization, not merely along partisan lines, but across various groups. In addition, the prevalence of hate speech and violence, intermixed with a heightened sense of discord, the resurgence of marginalization for some communities, and widespread insecurity, distrust, and hardship, has resulted in a fracturing both at the political and community level. In a time when we need to work together more than ever, the era of soundbites, disinformation, and reactionary rhetoric makes thoughtful debate and dialogue, consensus-building, and coalition formation increasingly difficult. This paper aims to disentangle the threads of escalating global fragmentation, the dynamics fueling it, and emerging solutions to counteract its adverse effects. This work stems from listening to the recurring concerns and challenges from policymakers and civil society about navigating the emerging backlash, division, and disinformation when pursuing inclusive policy agendas. Whether it is to recognize Indigenous communities in legal documents, plans to implement a transformative climate agenda, policies to advance gender equality, increase public investments, or provide safe passage and resources to people on the move—divisive narratives are derailing these efforts. This report attempts to understand why and how different communities, actors, and policy agendas are being undermined in similar ways. Although these are difficult times, numerous solutions, actionable strategies, and dedicated communities are addressing these challenges—if we know where to look. We aim to highlight successful examples of tackling disinformation, bridging divides, and driving the desperately needed change. The report is organized as such: Navigating the Twin Storms of Inequality and Polarization Unveiling Strategic Division: The Power Play Behind Societal Divides Mapping Vulnerabilities: Factors Fueling Susceptibility to Strategic Division Tackling Division at its Core: Comprehensive Policy Interventions While the mechanisms and solutions to societal fragmentation are complex, there is comfort in the understanding that this challenge is not unique to any single nation or community but is shared. By shedding light on these issues, we can pave the way for solutions—together. As demonstrated in this report and the dialogues that preceded it, numerous individuals, communities, and initiatives are dedicated to innovating and meeting the challenges of our time, bridging divides with the conviction that our strength is amplified when we stand together. We hope this paper can contribute in some small way to these efforts.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Polarization, Fragmentation, and Rhetoric
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
123. United Nations and World Bank Collaboration in Security and Justice Sectors: Linkages to Development
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Betty N. Wainaina, and Natacha Meden
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The links between security and development cannot be said enough. Effective and accountable security and justice institutions are essential to anchor peace and accelerate development but only if these institutions are people-centered, inclusive, accountable, and based on respect for human rights and the rule of law. Over 600 million people are living in countries that are considered politically estranged today. Many of these countries have faced and continue to face security challenges that have been significant drivers of grievance and contestation. Addressing governance challenges in the security and justice sectors in such circumstances is critical at a moment when all the remaining United Nations (UN) multidimensional peacekeeping operations have been requested to initiate or intensify transition planning. These transitions are taking place in countries and regions where the nature of violence and conflict is changing—becoming more protracted, involving transnational non-state armed actors, amid geo-political contestations and proxy wars. This study highlights that despite the long history of UN and World Bank engagement in the security and justice sectors, there has not been much strategic collaboration. Indeed, while there have been a few very compelling examples of joint work such as public expenditure reviews in the security and justice sectors in Liberia or Somalia, joint diagnostics and knowledge products as well as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) operations in a few countries, or strategically sequenced mutually reinforcing interventions for example in the case of The Gambia, these instances are the exception rather than the norm. The study finds that there is a lot more that can be done to promote a more systematic and strategic partnership between the UN and the World Bank in security and justice sector engagements. This could range from information sharing, joint analysis where necessary, reinforcing each other’s messaging, and the coordination and harmonization of efforts to leverage respective convening platforms and relationships. Strengthening this work is a challenge that would require engagement from the most senior UN and World Bank leadership as it would involve a cultural transformation and fresh understanding of organizational and staff incentives. Included in this report are eight joint and individual recommendations ranging from the cultural or strategic, to the more technical for policymakers across both multilateral institutions to implement and bring into their organizations.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, United Nations, World Bank, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
124. The Liquidity Crisis at the United Nations: How We Got Here and Possible Ways Out
- Author:
- Eugene Chen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- The United Nations (UN) is suffering from an acute liquidity crisis because its member states have not been paying the assessed contributions required to finance the budgets they have approved. A major part of the problem is the fact that the United States does not pay in full or on time. However, late payments in recent years by China and the closure of several large peacekeeping operations are exacerbating the liquidity challenges. The Secretary-General has proposed several measures to improve the financial position of the organization, but these are stopgap measures at best. The ongoing financial difficulties can only be resolved by member states paying in full and on time but getting there requires understanding the policy decisions and member state dynamics that led us to the current situation and developing recommendations designed around the constraints of the intergovernmental process.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Budget, Finance, and Liquidity
- Political Geography:
- China and Global Focus
125. Halving Global Violence Starts in Our Homes and Streets
- Author:
- Luisa Portugal
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the world has seen a sharp increase in the number and intensity of armed conflicts globally. From 2020 to 2022, conflict deaths increased nearly fourfold, reaching numbers unseen since the end of the Cold War. The impacts of these wars do not stop at the battlefield; they undermine and destroy social contracts between people and states, slow and even reverse economic participation, and shatter communal bonds—leading to further injuries and deaths. Despite their impact, the multilateral ecosystem faces significant challenges and barriers in offering solutions or relief to these conflicts. Adding to the damage caused by armed conflicts is the widespread and devastating cost of criminal and interpersonal violence. It is crucial to shift the conversation on violence reduction and prevention into the development space. As member states decide during September 2024 at the Summit of Future what the Pact for the Future will look like, they should heed this call and focus on finding practical solutions for the violence that most often impacts people’s everyday lives. This new analysis, part of the CIC Perspectives series, examines the following: A development approach to reducing violence; What works to prevent and reduce violence; Four takeaways for the Summit of the Future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
126. Health Diplomacy as an Aspect of International Humanitarian Cooperation
- Author:
- Nina Bychkova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- The modern world faces an increasing number of natural, biogenic, and anthropogenic challenges and threats. Addressing most of these challenges requires the mobilization of efforts from multiple states and, in some cases, the entire global community, necessitating constant dialogue to coordinate activities. Consequently, modern international relations are characterized by structural complexity, a diversity of ongoing processes, and varying degrees of involvement from a wide range of actors. As the system of international relations becomes more complex, the scope of issues that states must address in their foreign policy activities also expands. Moreover, since the second half of the 20th century, intergovernmental and nongovernmental international organizations have become an important part of international relations, significantly shaping the agenda and development trends. In addition to international organizations, civil society institutions are gaining increasing influence, also affecting the formation of the state’s foreign policy and the international agenda. International humanitarian cooperation is becoming increasingly important as international relations become more complex. This concept is interpreted differently in Russia and other countries. In Russian academic literature, two approaches are typically distinguished. The narrow approach, where humanitarian cooperation is practically equated with humanitarian aid, is characteristic of the foreign interpretation of the concept. In Russian official documents and academic works, international humanitarian cooperation is understood as the aggregate of interactions among state, supranational, and nonstate actors in the fields of human rights protection, science, education, culture, health care, sports, tourism, humanitarian aid, and others.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Humanitarian Cooperation, Health Diplomacy, Medical Diplomacy, and Vaccine Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
127. Challenges of Global Health Governance Amid the Growing Use of Force in the World
- Author:
- Alina Chesnokova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- Natural disasters and armed conflicts have accompanied human existence throughout history, always leading to spikes in mortality and morbidity. However, in recent years, the scale and scope of these events have noticeably increased. Since the 1990s, such events annually affect around 217 million people, forcing them to live under conditions of extreme instability and humanitarian crises.1 Despite this, in recent decades, global health management measures amid humanitarian crises caused by armed conflicts have not led to increased equity and quality in the provision of medical care and services in affected areas. Armed conflicts have a profound impact on the architecture of health governance. Military actions often result in the destruction of health care infrastructure, including hospitals, clinics, and essential medical supply chains. Such widespread disruptions hinder the delivery of basic medical services, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Largescale population displacement is the most common consequence of armed conflicts, resulting in the creation of refugee camps and pressure on host communities. This situation exacerbates health issues, as overcrowding promotes the spread of infectious diseases, compounded by the concurrent collapse of health care systems. Conflicts restrict or complicate the provision of humanitarian aid, impeding the delivery of essential medical supplies, vaccines, and medical personnel to affected areas. The psychological consequences of armed conflict always extend beyond physical injuries, with mental health issues becoming increasingly common.
- Topic:
- Governance, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, WHO, Global Health, and Disease
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Syria, and Global Focus
128. Global Values Competition: From Post-Truth to Post-Reality
- Author:
- Oleg Dmitriyev and Dmitry Yevstafyev
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- At the Primakov Readings in November 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed specific aspects of the formation of a polycentric world. He talked in part about the tools by which the US has so far managed to maintain relative, albeit fictitious, unity and present the collective West as a partially consolidated force. By the end of 2023, the cohesion of the coalition formed based on maintaining the stability of the “rules-based world,” which in essence aims to preserve the dominance of the collective West as the global regulator, had transformed following a series of extremely painful political and military-political conflicts. In a state of relative “calm,” the US had managed to maintain the stability of the system. But when mainstream Western media and think tanks started talking about the need for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at the end of December 2023, the consistency of the conflict coverage by leading global media began to break down.1 Postindustrial capitalism might well be called “capitalism of sensory consumption.” The logic of its development dictated the primacy of communication (marketing, visual, sociocoercive) and control over socioinformational mechanisms. The transition in international politics from geoeconomic America-centrism to a model of “values competition” (with permissible chaotization in certain geopolitical spaces) only amplifies these trends. But what technologies will be used to wage this competition? The US assumed that controlling the information society and the most important global communication channels gave them a clear systemic advantage in the values competition. That assumption proved a bit flawed, if you look at trends from 2022 to 2024, when the sanctions regime against the Russian Federation seemed ineffective in many parts of the world, including Europe.2 This attests to a qualitative change in the structure of the global information society. The nature of these changes still needs to be analyzed and understood. But at this stage we can assert that the management of political and geoeconomic processes relies on the widespread use of technologies of “post-truth” that is gradually morphing into “post-reality.” Emerging competing post-realities are becoming the real political-ideological basis for making medium-term significant political decisions.
- Topic:
- Capitalism, Values, International Order, Geoeconomics, Competition, Post-Truth, and Post-Reality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
129. 2014-2024: A Decade of Sanctions and the Strengthening of Russia’s Financial Sovereignty
- Author:
- Alexander Turov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- The summer of 2024 has been extraordinarily hot. Climatologists say the average temperature may exceed median values for the entire history of observations. But it is already clear that the political barometer has reached its peak this year, which is certainly having a direct impact on international relations and the global economy as a whole. The past months following the triumphant conclusion of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which marked the beginning of the collapse of the neocolonial system of global economic relations, and subsequent significant events in international affairs have confirmed Russia’s clear course toward financial sovereignty. For more than a decade now, that course has been pursued by the West, which has become unfriendly in a fairly short historical period. Yet in previous periods of our country’s history – the building of socialism, communism, advanced socialism, perestroika, and finally liberalism – the West actively used at an affordable price our fuel and raw material resources, which formed the basis of the Western economy and consumer society. The scientific achievements of our scholars also contributed to common global progress, as evidenced by the numerous Nobel Prizes they were awarded. So why, after three decades of euphoria based on the development of the market economy and the liberalization of everything, both necessary and unnecessary, has Russia once again been fenced off by NATO’s walls and subjected to economic sanctions, which essentially amount to an economic blockade? This happened before, during the early days of the young Soviet Republic, but the blockade lasted less than a hundred days – from October 1919 to January 1920 – because the level of understanding of global economic ties that formed the basis of politics and diplomacy among the old Western leaders was far higher than it is among today’s leaders, who seem more inclined to discuss issues concerning minority orientations than to concern themselves with the well-being and pressing needs of the majority.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Sanctions, Economy, and Financial Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
130. Meaningful Partners: Opportunities for Collaboration between Women, Peace and Security, and Small Arms Control at the National Level
- Author:
- Callum Watson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- National actors working in small arms control and on women, peace, and security (WPS) share commitments to reduce suffering, maintain peace and security, and contribute to the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, while these cross references are increasingly commonplace in the international policy framework, this does not often translate into harmonized references in national action plans (NAPs) on WPS and small arms control. Meaningful Partners: Opportunities for Collaboration between Women, Peace and Security, and Small Arms Control at the National Level—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Gender-Responsive Arms Control project—identifies potential avenues for future work to better harmonize efforts related to WPS and small arms control, and improve the effectiveness of both policy areas in achieving their objectives.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Women, Sustainable Development Goals, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
131. El final de la Pax americana. La evolución del sistema internacional. Los nuevos equilibrios
- Author:
- Adela M. Alija
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- En este artículo, partimos de la idea de que no estamos todavía ante una redefinición de del orden mundial creado tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial y la Guerra Fría. Ahora bien, nos encontramos ante un cuestionamiento profundo del sistema y ante desplazamientos en los equilibrios de poder que parecen mostrarnos el final de una era. El orden (o desorden) mundial del siglo XXI en el que nos encontramos está marcado por elementos que introducen incertidumbre e inseguridad. Recesión económica, pandemia, guerra, crisis diversas, desaceleración de la globalización (o quizá desglobalización) … hacen un mundo complejo y desordenado. Sobre todos estos elementos mencionados, la guerra en Ucrania representa un momento decisivo para la construcción de un nuevo orden mundial. El concepto de Pax Americana es discutible y ha sido discutido ampliamente, como analizaremos en nuestro artículo. Si consideramos el término desde la perspectiva de la supremacía de Estados Unidos en el sistema internacional, no cabe duda de que el orden mundial del siglo XX ha estado marcado por el poder estadounidense. El final de la pax americana daría lugar a un nuevo orden mundial, el orden liberal internacional habría finalizado y un nuevo orden “postoccidental” se estaría construyendo. Pero, ¿qué clase de orden? La sustitución de la pax americana y, por lo tanto, del orden liberal occidental, es todavía imprecisa. En conclusión, los objetivos de nuestro artículo son: analizar la evolución del concepto de Pax americana, entendido como símbolo de la hegemonía de Estados Unidos y Occidente en el mundo, analizar el contexto de crisis de dicha hegemonía y, por último, analizar las distintas vías de cambio del sistema internacional, partiendo de la base de que está en una fase de transición y transformación todavía incierta.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, International Order, Pax Americana, and Post-Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
132. Repercussions of the end of the war in Ukraine for the United Nations Security System
- Author:
- Carlos Espaliú Berdud
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an extraordinarily serious violation of the prohibition on the use of force that was embodied in Article 2.4 of the UN Charter after a long historical process. The fact that it was perpetrated by one of the permanent members of the Security Council implies a breach of the consensus among the Allies in World War II that gave rise to the United Nations and the system of international peacekeeping and security that it brought with it. The final outcome of the war in Ukraine may mean that the blow to the system of collective security envisaged in the Charter may be fatal, should the outcome be favourable to Russian interests, or that, despite being badly damaged, it may continue to exist, should the final outcome of the conflict be favourable to Ukrainian interests.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, International Community, UN Security Council, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus
133. Global Terrorism Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2012. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), using data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources. In 2023, deaths from terrorism increased by 22 per cent to 8,352 deaths and are now at their highest level since 2017, although they remain 23 per cent lower than at their peak in 2015. Excluding the October 7th Hamas attack, deaths would have still been up by five per cent. Whilst the number of deaths increased, the number of incidents fell, with total attacks dropping by 22 per cent to 3,350 in 2023. Pakistan recorded the most incidents of any country, with 490 attacks recorded. The rise in deaths but fall in number of incidents shows how terrorism is becoming more concentrated and more lethal. The number of countries recording a death from terrorism fell to 41, considerably lower than the peak of 57 countries recorded in 2015 and the 44 recorded in 2022.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Peace, Organized Crime, Countering Violent Extremism, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Sahel and Global Focus
134. Business & Peace Report 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This report examines the relationship between a country's economic performance and its level of peacefulness. The key finding is that peace serves as a reliable predictor of a country's future macro-economic trajectory, creating a business environment that provides superior returns to global averages. This represents a valuable insight for informing strategic investment decisions and offering a multitude of applications for businesses and fund managers, including in the design of financial investment products. For corporations it can help to guide investment decisions into markets with lower risk and stronger growth potential.
- Topic:
- Economics, Business, Macroeconomics, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
135. Halo, Positive Peace and Systems Thinking 2024: Advancing a Systems-Based Approach to Understanding and Building Peace
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is dedicated to advancing the understanding of the operations of societal systems. To this end, this report brings together research conducted by IEP over the last decade and includes two conceptual approaches that are distinct but highly compatible: Positive Peace and Halo. These two concepts guide the organisation’s research, mission, and theory of social change. In addition, the report covers other related work including attempts to measure national intent, predict future substantial declines in peace, and to measure societal shocks and resilience in relation to the ecology.
- Topic:
- Economics, Peace, Resilience, and Systems Thinking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
136. Positive Peace Report 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- Peace is more than the absence of violence. Positive Peace describes the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It is conceptually related to many aspects of social development and can be used in multiple contexts. In addition to being a transformative concept, it is also a social good. When combined with systems thinking Positive Peace is a transformational concept as it envisages new ways of understanding how societies operate and how to develop thriving communities. Toward this end, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) developed the Positive Peace Index (PPI), a statistically derived measure of the factors that create flourishing societies, which is based on eight Pillars of Positive Peace. The concept of Positive Peace as well as general PPI results, including rankings and changes over time, are the focus of this report.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Positive Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
137. Global Peace Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. This year it introduces a new measure of global military capability that incorporates military sophistication, technology, and battle readiness into a single measure. The report finds that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of the Second World War. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements. The number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Peace, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
138. Contemporary Trends in Militarisation
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This report provides two new approaches to understand the capabilities of the world’s militaries by country. The first analyses and tracks changes in a range of militarisation indicators. The main finding of this approach is that while military expenditure is rising in absolute terms, as a percentage of GDP it has fallen and is around half of the peaks seen at the height of the Cold War. Concurrently, as military sophistication increases, troop numbers are declining, highlighting a growing reliance on technology. The second approach is the development of a new and original methodology that calculates the military capacity of countries by weighting the generations of their military assets. These capability scores substantially change the ranking of countries when compared to traditional approaches that count just the number of military assets, or compare military expenditure. The US has the highest capability score, well ahead of China, which ranks second. Russia follows China closely in third. Countries such as Iran and North Korea, despite having large fleets of fixed wing planes, drop considerably in the rankings, because their assets represent older technology. These trends occur as the world is at a crossroad with the number of conflicts, 59, at an all-time high since WWII. These conflicts are becoming more internationalised, with 92 countries involved in a conflict beyond their borders, rising competition between the major powers, and more middle level powers also becoming more assertive. Unresolved conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII, opening more opportunity for major conflicts to erupt.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Conflict, Militarization, and Defense Spending
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
139. Multilateralism Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- There are growing calls to transform the multilateral system, which is widely seen as being in crisis. Yet solving the crisis of multilateralism requires understanding what that crisis entails. What parts of the multilateral system are in crisis, and what parts are still functioning? Where is commitment to multilateralism flagging, and where does it remain strong? Where is multilateral action failing to translate into concrete results, and where is it delivering? Who is being left out of multilateral engagement, and who is being included? And what are the trends over time? To help answer these questions, the International Peace Institute (IPI) and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) developed the Multilateralism Index. This 2024 edition of the Index assesses changes in international cooperation between 2013 and 2023 across five domains: Peace and Security, Human Rights, Climate Action, Public Health, and Trade. Each domain is evaluated across three dimensions: Participation, Performance, and Inclusivity
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Human Rights, Multilateralism, Peace, Trade, Public Health, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
140. Climate Adaptation Finance: The Gap Between Needs and Resources Continues to Grow
- Author:
- Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
- Abstract:
- Our recent research on the state and trends of climate adaptation finance needs, gaps, and trends globally and in Africa provides new insights that call for greater urgency in adaptation action and financing. The global adaptation funding gap continues to widen because the understanding of needs shows much higher levels of investment required, and the rate of increase of adaptation financing is insufficient. In this policy brief, we review global climate finance trends, the growing funding gap in climate adaptation finance globally and in Africa, financial instruments used for climate adaptation, and challenges and recommendations to improve the tracking of climate adaptation finance.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Climate Finance, International Development, Funding, and Adaptation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global Focus
141. Legality of the Use of Cluster Bombs in International Law: A Short Overview
- Author:
- Vesna Poposka and Abdulmecit Nuredin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine brought the collective security system towards a dead-end street. After raising the question of nuclear threat, another long-time forgotten question arises again, waking up the ghosts that slept for more than a half-century- the use of cluster bombs. Although an international convention prohibits this type of weapon, neither Ukraine, Russia, nor the United States are part of it, which leads back to the agony of fragmentation of international law versus the erga omnes concept of universally applicable norms and customary rules. Since the war is official and intensive, the law of armed conflict applies no matter which of the states involved denies it or names it differently. The use of cluster munitions from both sides is highly contested in international law—the paper aimed to provide an overview of the applicable legal framework through analytical and comparative methods. Although there is a general notion that cluster munition is banned under international law, the paper’s results show this is not the ultimate case. Contextualisation relies on the four basic principles of humanitarian law.
- Topic:
- Security, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Russia-Ukraine War, and Cluster Bombs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus
142. The UN Summit of the Future: Neither breakthrough nor breakdown
- Author:
- Katja Creutz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The complex and interconnected governance challenges facing the world have led the UN to convene a Summit of the Future. Despite the tense international political climate, the aim is for UN member states to come together to lay out a roadmap for transforming global governance.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Governance, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
143. Labor Market Volatility and Worker Financial Wellbeing: An Occupational and Gender Perspective
- Author:
- Julie Yixia Cai
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- One emerging but underexplored factor that is likely to contribute to group racial earnings disparity is unstable work schedules. This is often detrimental for hourly workers when volatility is frequent, involuntary, or unanticipated. Using data from 2005-2022 monthly Current Population Survey and its panel design, this study follows a group of hourly workers across a four-month period to assess whether labor market volatility relates to their financial well-being, focusing on low-wage care and service occupations as well as female workers and workers of color. The findings are threefold: In general, during economic expansion periods, nonwhite workers often benefit more in terms of wage growth compared to their white counterparts. Second, net of other characteristics, on average, greater volatility is associated with lower earnings, and this is mostly driven by those holding jobs in low-wage service sectors and healthcare support roles. Last, the earnings consequences of volatility vary significantly by the type of low-wage jobs a worker holds and their gender and race, but this is only true when volatility happens in a job. Specifically, when working within the same employment spell, female workers, particularly those of color and those working in low-wage service and care jobs, earn significantly less when facing greater volatility than their male counterparts or those working in non-service, non-care occupations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Inequality, Finance, Labor Market, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
144. Bagehot’s Classical Money View: A Reconstruction
- Author:
- Perry Mehrling
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Bagehot is difficult for modern economists to read with understanding, for three reasons. He was a classical economist not neoclassical, his orientation was global not national, and, most importantly, his intellectual formation was as a practicing country banker not an academic. This paper adopts all three perspectives, and uses this frame to reinterpret his mature work, both Lombard Street and the unfinished Economic Studies, as the origin of the key currency tradition which continues as a minority view in modern economics.
- Topic:
- Globalization, History, Macroeconomics, and Walter Bagehot
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
145. Monetary Policy and Illiquidity
- Author:
- Jan Toporowski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- The discussion of financial stability, and the role of monetary policy, is incoherent because there is very little agreement on what constitutes financial stability (and, by implication, instability) - exchange rate stability, asset price stability, absence of debt default. By implication, there is a gap between the claims of various authors to the general applicability of their respective analyses, and the actual applicability of their conclusions, let alone the usefulness of some of their policy recommendations. The paper argues that the key issue is the regulation of the liquidity of all financial markets, and not just that of the banking system, through the markets for government securities. The paper examines the sources of this liquidity in the financial portfolios of the private sector, and how that liquidity may be managed through the open market operations of central banks and the debt management operations of governments. An implication of this approach is yield curve control and the use of (government) debt management to control the liquidity of the markets. These elements of monetary policy have been neglected in theory and policy since the 1950s.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Liquidity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
146. Tesla as a Global Competitor: Strategic Control in the EV Transition
- Author:
- Matt Hopkins and William Lazonick
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we assess the implications of Elon Musk’s strategic control over Tesla, the pioneering company that has become central to the electric vehicle transition. We document how, as Tesla’s CEO for 16 years, Musk has exercised strategic control to direct the transformation of the company from an uncertain startup to a global leader. Now that Tesla is profitable corporate predators (aka hedge-fund activists) may challenge Musk’s strategic control—a possibility of which the CEO is well aware. To retain his control over Tesla as a publicly listed company, Musk depends on holding a sufficient proportion of Tesla’s shares outstanding to possess the voting power to fend off predatory value extractors. In addition to accumulating Tesla shares by investing $291.2 million at early stages of the company’s evolution, Musk has relied upon massive stock-option grants from the Tesla board, under the guise of “compensation”, in 2009, 2012, and 2018, to boost his shareholding and, with it, his voting power. Hence the Delaware Court of Chancery’s decision in January 2024 to rescind Musk’s 2018 stock-option package—by far the largest ever granted to a corporate executive—poses a threat to Musk’s strategic control at Tesla. As the “Technoking” of Tesla strategizes to maintain his control over the company’s decision-making, anyone concerned with the role that Tesla will play in the evolving EV transition should be asking how CEO Musk might use, or abuse, his powerful position.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Economic Competition, Electric Vehicles, Tesla, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
147. Concentrating Intelligence: Scaling and Market Structure in Artificial Intelligence
- Author:
- Anton Korinek and Jai Vipra
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the evolving structure and competition dynamics of the rapidly growing market for foundation models, focusing on large language models (LLMs). We describe the technological characteristics that shape the industry and have given rise to fierce competition among the leading players. The paper analyzes the cost structure of foundation models, emphasizing the importance of key inputs such as computational resources, data, and talent, and identifies significant economies of scale and scope that may create a tendency towards greater market concentration in the future. We explore two concerns for competition, the risk of market tipping and the implications of vertical integration, and use our analysis to inform policy remedies to maintain a competitive landscape.
- Topic:
- Markets, Economy, Business, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
148. Macroeconomic Modeling in the Anthropocene
- Author:
- Yannis Dafermos, Andrew McConnell, Maria Nikolaidi, Servaas Storm, and Boyan Yanovski
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen an increasing use of environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) models for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of the climate crisis. This paper explores to what extent these models are fit for purpose. We identify the limitations of the benchmark E-DSGE framework and explain how these limitations restrict the ability of this framework to meaningfully capture the macroeconomics of the climate crisis. We then explain how the assumptions behind these limitations can be relaxed, but argue that simply relaxing some of these assumptions in isolation is insufficient to address the problem. We therefore call for a broader use of other macroeconomic models, such as ecological stock-flow consistent (E-SFC) and ecological agent-based (E-AB) models, that address these limitations simultaneously. We explain how these models do not suffer from the pitfalls of the E-DSGE framework and outline how they need to improve to increase their usefulness as tools that can inform macroeconomic policy making in the Anthropocene.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
149. Responsible Change: How Governments Can Address Environmental, Social and Governance Challenges When Petroleum Assets Change Hands
- Author:
- Nicola Woodroffe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- As the world moves toward a future beyond oil and gas, petroleum assets will change hands, with different kinds of companies replacing others. Since 2014, around USD 88 billion in assets have moved from publicly listed to private companies. The roles of sub-Saharan African and Latin American companies in their home countries have expanded. Globally, the role of national oil companies (NOCs) is growing. NOCs have acquired around $24 billion in assets from non-NOCs since 2014. The growing role of private and local companies and NOCs potentially gives producer countries greater control over their petroleum sectors, including the pace of an eventual phaseout. However, these companies often have less capacity and fewer transparency, environmental, social and governance commitments than publicly listed international companies. This increases the risk that these companies’ operations will negatively impact the environment and communities, and that they will be unable to pay for decommissioning when production ends. Many assets that sub-Saharan African and Latin American NOCs have acquired appear vulnerable to energy transition risks. Governments should exercise approval rights over asset transfers to ensure buyers have requisite capacity to operate with high standards. They should ensure transparency to allow host communities and the public to better understand transfer impacts and how the government and/or companies will manage them, and strengthen regulations to address key issues arising from transfers including emissions management and reporting, and decommissioning funding. Governments should require NOCs to make adequate disclosures about their acquisitions to ensure NOCs manage risks to the public purse.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Governance, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
150. Responsible Exit Principles for Oil and Gas Companies
- Author:
- Nicola Woodroffe and Erica Westenberg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Asset transfers in the oil and gas industry are not new. Yet, as the energy transition accelerates, there is a growing risk that oil and gas companies sell assets in response to pressures to decarbonize. However, transferring assets to operators with lower standards can lead to higher emissions and increased risks. This briefing offers a framework to guide these transactions and ensure that environmental and operational integrity is upheld. Designed for use by a range of stakeholders, these principles set out best practices to help companies manage financial, legal, environmental and reputational risks during asset transfers. They were developed with input from representatives of the oil and gas industry; investors, the financial, legal and accounting professions; the insurance industry; standard-setting bodies; academia; and civil society. All stakeholders can adopt and refine these standards to support a responsible, low-emissions future and harmonize regulatory practices across the industry.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Environment, Oil, Gas, Accountability, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus