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101. The Personal Is Still Political: Why the Rise of Misogyny Threatens Democracy

Author:
Annika Scharnagl
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Misogyny is becoming structurally normalized, shaping political discourse, digital environments, and institutional practices despite formal progress on gender equality, as democratic backsliding creates permissive conditions that render this dynamic bidirectional and mutually reinforcing. Digital platforms and emerging technologies amplify backlash dynamics, accelerating the spread and social acceptance of anti-gender narratives. Rising polarization and economic insecurity are translating personal grievances into political backlash, weakening social cohesion and democratic participation. The future of democratic resilience depends on containment measures achieved through coordinated governance, education, and norm-setting that affirm gender equality as a core democratic value.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Misogyny, and Digital Platforms
Political Geography:
Global Focus

102. Climate, Peace and Security in the UN Security Council

Author:
Helene Maria Kyed and Justine Chambers
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Climate, peace and security (CPS) is a recurring topic of debate within the UN Security Council (UNSC) that, despite never achieving a formal thematic mandate, has advanced with the support of a majority of council members since 2011 and is now reflected in 11 missions. CPS engagement in the UNSC rests on an understanding that the impacts of climate change deepen vulnerabilities that can aggravate existing threats to international peace and security, placing the issue within the UNSC’s charter-given mandate. CPS-supportive council members also acknowledge that climate impacts challenge UN peacekeeping operations and that addressing climate change is important to both peacebuilding efforts and the conflict prevention mandate of the UNSC. The existential threat that sea-level rise poses to low-lying coastal states is another recurring topic. As an elected member of the UNSC (2025-2026), Denmark has positioned itself as a champion of CPS, aligned with one of its three thematic priorities. In 2025, Denmark co-chaired with Sierra Leone the Joint Pledges on CPS – an initiative launched in 2023 to put a spotlight on CPS in the UNSC’s thematic and geographic meetings, resolutions, mission mandates and analyses. Denmark also stressed climate-related risks in the context of Yemen during its March 2025 presidency and later played a role in retaining CPS-language in the mandate renewal of the UN mission in South Sudan. It has collaborated on events, linking CPS to the protection of civilians, peace operations and the ‘Women, Peace and Security’ agenda. These efforts unfold in a challenging political environment, marked by funding cuts to UN missions and a renewed focus on rearmament and hard-security priorities that risk underprioritizing climate change. While Russia and China have consistently opposed placing climate-related issues under the UNSC’s remit, the US’s recent withdrawal from CPS-supporting groups in the Council and its exit from the Paris Agreement have heightened the risk of eroding progress on CPS.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Geopolitics, Peace, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

103. Building Citizens: Social and Behavior Change for Stronger Democratic Cultures

Author:
Fernanda Buril and Nicolas Kaczorowski
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Given the critical connection between citizen engagement and democratic health, it is no surprise that democracy assistance programs often focus on increasing civic and voter engagement, particularly among groups that face persistent barriers to participation. However well-intended, these efforts are often based on blanket assumptions implementers make about what is needed to change undesirable patterns, without a full examination of behaviors, social norms, and structural conditions that shape whether people feel able, motivated, and supported to engage. This is where social and behavior change (SBC) approaches play a crucial role. SBC refers to systematic, evidence-based efforts to influence individuals’ actions, as well as the social norms, attitudes, and environments that shape them, to achieve sustained positive outcomes. These conscious efforts to address problems at their roots and in holistic and sustainable ways are more important than ever in the current environment, where foreign aid resources are scarce and the need for more impactful programs is only growing. This report helps fill this gap by applying SBC lenses to civic and voter engagement programming, offering a practical way to diagnose barriers, design more responsive interventions, and assess whether these interventions contribute to more durable democratic participation. It also illustrates these applications through flagship IFES programs implemented in Tunisia, Ukraine, and Nepal, and provides guidance to implementers to maximize program effectiveness.
Topic:
Culture, Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

104. Solving the Puzzle: Making Political Finance Data Work

Author:
Chelsea Dreher
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Political party and campaign finance transparency are essential to maintaining a level electoral playing field and preventing undue influence in politics. The effectiveness of accountability mechanisms, however, depends in large part on the quality and usability of underlying data. As legal and regulatory frameworks evolve to address new forms of campaigning and illicit interference, the volume and complexity of financial data continue to grow, making effective tracking and analysis increasingly challenging. Robust digital recordkeeping, coupled with targeted and timely interagency data sharing, can reduce reporting burdens, strengthen compliance and verification processes, and improve accountability for all actors involved in political finance oversight and government integrity. Drawing on desk research and interviews with state and non-state political finance experts across diverse legal contexts, this guide provides a flexible and practical framework for improving the quality and interoperability of political finance data. It is designed to meet oversight institutions at different stages of digitalization and data management. The guide introduces key terminology to support engagement with data specialists and engineers; outlines steps to strengthen and clean internal datasets; identifies entry points for advancing interoperability; and offers recommendations for navigating inter-agency data-sharing arrangements – helping institutions to establish effective collaboration frameworks from the outset.
Topic:
Elections, Transparency, Political Parties, and Campaign Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

105. Violence Against Women in Elections Framework

Author:
Regina Waugh
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) is proud to release an update to the 2016 publication, Violence Against Women in Elections: A Framework for Assessment, Monitoring, and Response. With the 2016 publication, IFES established a robust and comprehensive definition for the types of harm women face in the context of the electoral process. The framework helped guide assessments of violence against women in elections (VAWE) in countries around the world, documenting and classifying the range of harms and challenges that women experience when seeking to exercise their political and electoral rights. Now, in 2026, this new release builds on knowledge gained from 10 years of implementing the original VAWE framework. It streamlines the data collection process for the VAWE assessment, and adds a focus on the increased role that online violence and gendered disinformation – including violence and gendered disinformation facilitated and exacerbated by artificial intelligence (AI) – play in the electoral context. The original 2016 publication remains available for reference; continue scrolling to "From the Archive" to download the 2016 Framework.
Topic:
Elections, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

106. A Common Denominator in Conflict Studies: Introducing Political Non-State Organisations

Author:
Tom Konzack
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
Abstract:
This Working Paper advances the conceptualisation of non-state actors by introducing political non-state organisations (PNSOs) as a distinct analytical category. Drawing on insights from terrorism, civil war, and social movement studies, it argues that prevailing definitions suffer from conceptual ambiguity and empirical inconsistencies, hampering comparative research. PNSOs are defined by their formal organisational structures, political objectives, and their engagement in physical, publicly observable actions taking place outside institutional political channels. This framework integrates elements of both actors commonly denoted non-state and social movement organisations, while delineating PNSOs clearly from state and apolitical entities. The approach also captures hybrid actors who combine protest and electoral politics. By introducing PNSOs, a more consistent cross-case comparison of entities involved in political contention is made possible – using violent or non-violent tactics. The conceptual refinement addresses methodological fragmentation in existing datasets, offering a coherent foundation for empirical studies of contentious politics across diverse political and geographical contexts.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Social Movement, and Tactics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

107. Paths to Openness: Immigrant Background and Attitudes toward Immigrants

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
Abstract:
Using data from the World Values Survey (WVS) and European Values Survey (EVS) covering 92 countries (n ≈ 157,000), this study examines whether individuals with an immigrant background exhibit more accommodating attitudes toward immigrants than those without such roots. “Immigrant background” is measured by whether at least one parent was born outside the respondent’s country of residence. “Accommodating of immigrants” is captured using three indicators: willingness to have immigrants / foreign workers as neighbors; assessment of immigrants’ contribution to economic development; and trust in people of a different nationality. While the first two measures focus on “immigrants,” the third homes in on “non-nationals,” allowing for an assessment of whether attitudes toward immigrants—a highly politicized group—extend to the more neutral category of “non-nationals.” Regression analyses indicate that individuals with an immigrant background are significantly more likely to express willingness to have immigrants as neighbors, to evaluate immigrants’ economic contributions positively, and to trust non-nationals. These patterns are consistent with theories of social identity and intergroup contact, suggesting that shared backgrounds and transnational ties may foster in-group extension and greater openness toward immigrants.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Tolerance, Society, Trust, and Prejudice
Political Geography:
Global Focus

108. The Roots of Capitalism: Slavery and the Sugar Trade

Author:
Vijay Prashad
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
There is a certain comfort in the stories that empires tell about themselves. These are stories of ingenuity, of discovery, of the steady march of reason and science. In these stories, capitalism appears almost as an inevitability, the natural flowering of human progress in Western Europe, propelled by technological innovation and the so-called Enlightenment. What these narratives leave out is not incidental but foundational: the violence that made the modern world. Prabir Purkayastha’s The Roots of Capitalism: Slavery and the Sugar Trade is an intervention into this cultivated amnesia. It insists that we look directly at the historical record and recognise that capitalism did not emerge from the gentle unfolding of markets and machines but from the brutal reorganisation of the world through conquest, enslavement, and extraction. Much of this study was written during Prabir Purkayastha’s 225-day incarceration in Rohini Central Jail in Delhi, India, on scraps of paper passed back and forth and discussed with those of us who visited him. It compels us to reconsider what we mean when we speak of the origins of capitalism and to ask: whose history is being told, whose suffering is being obscured, and what was the cost? At the heart of this study is sugar, not just as a commodity but as a social relation. Sugar was among the first truly global commodities, binding together continents in circuits of production, exchange, and finance. Its cultivation required vast tracts of land – seized through genocide in the Americas – and immense quantities of labour, supplied through the transatlantic trade in enslaved Africans. Sugar, in this sense, was not simply produced; it was made possible through a system that treated human beings themselves as commodities. What Purkayastha demonstrates with clarity is that the plantation was not an archaic or pre-capitalist institution. On the contrary, it was one of the earliest sites of modern capitalist organisation. Here we see the integration of agriculture and industry, the careful accounting of costs and returns, the calculation of labour productivity, and the ruthless logic of replacement. Enslaved people were reduced to units of capital, their lives measured against their market price. The plantation, as Sidney Mintz observed, was both field and factory. The immense profits generated by slavery and plantation agriculture were not peripheral to European development; they were central to it. Sugar production, the trade in enslaved people, and the associated industries (shipping, insurance, refining, and finance) formed an interconnected system that fuelled capital accumulation on a global scale. The wealth generated in the Caribbean and the Americas flowed into European cities, underwriting the growth of industries and financial institutions. The sugar refineries of London, Bristol, and Liverpool were among the earliest industrial workplaces. They processed the raw sugar produced by enslaved labour, transforming it into commodities for mass consumption and for re-export across the globe. To speak of capitalism without speaking of slavery is therefore to tell only half the story. It is to accept a narrative that sanitises the past and obscures the structural violence upon which the modern world was built. Purkayastha’s work aligns with a long tradition of radical scholarship, from Eric Williams to Walter Rodney, that has sought to restore this missing history. But it also advances the discussion by focusing closely on sugar as a lens through which to understand the broader dynamics of capitalist development. What emerges is a picture of capitalism not merely as an economic system but as a global project of domination that involved the reorganisation of land, labour, and resources across continents; the destruction of existing societies; and the creation of new hierarchies of race and power. The interdependence of sugar and enslaved people as commodities illustrates this vividly: one cannot be understood without the other. This history is not merely of academic interest. The legacies of this system persist in the inequalities that structure our world today. The wealth accumulated through slavery and colonialism did not disappear; it was institutionalised in the financial systems, property relations, and global divisions of labour that continue to shape our present. To understand capitalism’s origins is therefore to better understand its contemporary forms and its enduring injustices. There is also, in this work, an implicit challenge to how we think about resistance. The system described here was sustained by violence, but it was also contested at every stage by the enslaved people1 who resisted their bondage, by those who exposed the brutality of the trade, and by movements that sought to dismantle it. To recover this history is not only to confront the crimes of the past, but also to recognise the struggles that sought to overcome them.
Topic:
Imperialism, Capitalism, Slavery, Commodities, and Sugar
Political Geography:
Global Focus

109. The Future

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Each month, for the past hundred months, our team at Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research has researched, written, and designed a dossier. These dossiers – which range from histories of imperialism and national liberation to analyses of economic policy, sovereignty, war, and the changing world order – have circulated around the world in many languages, from English, Hindi, and Portuguese to Arabic, Thai, and Spanish.1 This is our 100th dossier, which is why we decided to pause and produce a historical-materialist account of a key concept at our institute: the future. When our institute was conceptualised in 2015, we had three main lines of inquiry before us: To better understand contemporary capitalism and the nature of the class struggle that shapes it. To better understand the rise of what we call the far right of a special type.2 To better understand the future – or what comes next. This third line of inquiry emerged from a materialist understanding of the historical process, which sees the present not as an eternal reality but as open to transformation. In other words, the present can be shaped into a future of a different character. The capitalist system that we inhabit is not permanent: it can be transformed into a socialist system through the class struggle and the development of the productive forces. Here, for the first time, we present a philosophical and political assessment of the future. Drawing on the tradition of national liberation Marxism, we argue that this future should be called not only socialism, the objective, but also hope, the sensibility for such a future.3 We trust that you will read this dossier as you have read the previous ninety-nine and that you will share, debate, and discuss it collectively in reading circles and other spaces of political study. We are always open to your feedback.
Topic:
Socialism/Marxism, Capitalism, Future, and Internationalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

110. The Architecture of Power: The Dollar, Financialisation, and the Struggle for Sovereignty

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The role of the dollar as the principal currency of exchange in world trade grants the United States exorbitant power. This dossier examines the rise of this currency, the mechanisms of its domination, and the structural limits to building an alternative to the dollar.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Socialism/Marxism, Capitalism, Currency, Financialisation, and Dollar
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

111. A Vietnam in the Field of Culture: The Cultural Congress of Havana, 1968

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In 1968, delegates from seventy countries gathered in Havana to confront cultural imperialism and imagine culture as a decisive front of anti-imperialist struggle.
Topic:
Imperialism, History, Socialism/Marxism, and Culture
Political Geography:
Cuba, Global Focus, and Global South

112. Middle Power and Powerlessness on a changing World Stage

Author:
Koen Aartsma, Gijs Verbossen, Liam Klein, Chiara Schrader, and Bart van der Wal
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
For this foresight study, eight scenarios were developed which together offer a unique perspective on the role of middle powers in a changing world. Middle powers can play a major role in the creation of a new world order, but do not yet have a decisive role at this point. Middle powers also face ‘middle powerlessness’ on the world stage. Middle power is a relative concept – a spectrum rather than a binary threshold level of power. A middle power is a country (or region) that can have a substantial influence on the actions of geopolitical actors without being able to change the world order on its own. There is therefore no such thing as ‘the’ middle power. In this study, middle power broadly refers to countries such as India and Russia at the top end of the spectrum and countries such as the Netherlands and Egypt at the bottom end. Over the coming years, middle powers will have the opportunity to take a proactive and assertive stance and play a key role in shaping a new geopolitical future. At the same time, like other players, they will be confronted with an unpredictable world stage on which various players, including the great powers, will try to impose their will. Middle powers have diverse worldviews and intentions, diverse visions of their own role and assertiveness in world affairs, diverse political, economic and military capabilities, and diverse strategic positions. This includes attempts to remain multi-aligned, non-aligned or fully aligned, and varying degrees of success in acquiring, maintaining and exercising power. How protean world affairs really are is illustrated well by the two central themes of this study: conflict resolution and the geopolitics of finance. These two themes were picked because they represent two of the main pillars of the ‘old’ liberal rules-based order. Both are subject to erosion and transformation. Middle powers must relate to this on the one hand but can also exert substantial influence on it. In the geopolitical developments towards a new world order, multipolarity is not a given but a key uncertainty. In addition to the precise polarity of the emerging order, the degree of cooperation versus non-cooperation between middle powers is a second key uncertainty. These variables strongly determine the degree of success of different middle power profiles and strategies. The Netherlands is a middle power, but whether it will remain so is unsure. It sorely needs a new strategic vision on changing relations with the great powers as well as with its middle power peers. In addition, the world stage is rapidly changing in a direction that the Netherlands (and, incidentally, the EU) is not accustomed to. Raw power politics prevails over international law, as demonstrated by the growing use of threats, using conventional and unconventional means. This points to a second urgent need: to find comfort in the uncomfortable and to get used to the unfamiliar. What’s more, neither NATO nor EU membership makes the Netherlands immune to the rise of brutal power politics. In particular, this study concludes that although strategic indispensability is a cost-effective strategy for smaller middle powers, it is also a particularly vulnerable strategy. Just as excessive dependence on the existing world order is unwise, so too is excessive dependence on a single vulnerable means of power. This foresight study shows that hedging and multialignment are becoming increasingly prominent strategies in the middle power arsenal. These instruments offer middle powers maneuverability in an uncertain geopolitical era. The Netherlands can also benefit from learning to manoeuvre on the basis of these strategies. The successful middle powers in this foresight study develop broad capabilities in multiple domains and deploy them with maximum effectiveness in strategically important moments and issues. Such middle power acumen requires various skills: (1) adaptability to a changing environment; (2) diversification and deepening of collaborations; and (3) broad resilience and geopolitical fortitude. Insight into, and investment in one’s own strengths and skills (one’s own middle power), but also insight into the limits of one’s own capabilities (one’s own ‘middle powerlessness’) are indispensable for meeting the current and future challenges of a world order in flux.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, Finance, Multipolarity, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:
Netherlands and Global Focus

113. Curbing the proliferation of Policy Brief commercial spyware starts at the demand-side

Author:
Myrthe de Boon
Publication Date:
09-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The proliferation of commercial spyware has given governments powerful, sophisticated, and highly invasive espionage tools to access messages, locations, cameras, and microphones without the target’s knowledge. Although marketed to intelligence and law enforcement agencies as a tool to protect national security, its illegitimate deployment has repeatedly driven political scandals, abuse, and human rights violations across the globe. In response, the UK and France established the international multistakeholder “Pall Mall Process” to curtail the harmful use of commercially available cyber intrusion capabilities, including commercial spyware. The Process is currently developing guidelines for industry, and it has consulted governments, industry stakeholders, and civil society organisations – including the Clingendael Institute. Against this background, this policy brief argues that regulating the commercial spyware market is necessary but not sufficient, since states remain the actors responsible for authorising, overseeing, and remedying its use. While the Pall Mall Process addresses responsible practices for states as ‘demanders’ in this market, the Process’ overall impact is limited by representation, implementation, and enforcement challenges. This brief calls for a layered response to strengthen ‘demand-side’ governance to curb the proliferation of commercial spyware: (1) stronger domestic safeguards and clarity on national security definitions; (2) more assertive use of rule-of-law and foreign policy instruments by the EU, and (3) a more inclusive Pall Mall Process that advances international knowledge diffusion and clarity on the application of international law.
Topic:
Science and Technology, International Security, Espionage, and Spyware
Political Geography:
Global Focus

114. Technological proximity and the mitigation of trade costs

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi, Michael Landesmann, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
09-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper develops a theoretical and empirical framework for analysing how technological proximity shapes bilateral trade flows. We model technological alignment as a source of reduced effective trade costs and embed it within a structural gravity setting. Using a novel dataset combining sector-level patent information and OECD trade data for 76 countries across 45 sectors over the 1996-2020 period, we construct a granular measure of technological proximity based on revealed technological advantage. Estimating high-dimensional fixed effects gravity models, we find that technological proximity has a positive and economically significant impact on bilateral exports. Instrumental-variable estimates based on shift-share global technology shocks indicate that baseline results are attenuated by endogeneity. We further show that technological proximity mitigates the trade-reducing effects of compliance-intensive regulatory non-tariff measures, particularly sanitary and phytosanitary measures, while having limited interaction with tariffs. In non-services sectors, a 0.1 increase in technological proximity has an export effect comparable to lowering the gross tariff factor by about 6%-7%. Finally, we document substantial regional and sectoral heterogeneity, showing that the trade-enhancing effects of technological proximity are strongest when countries are connected to technological frontier economies and vary markedly across industries. Partial-equilibrium welfare counterfactuals imply positive but modest gains from targeted technological-alignment shocks. The findings highlight the central role of technological compatibility in shaping global trade patterns.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Trade Policy, Global Value Chains, and Proximity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

115. The structural interdependencies of industries: An agent-based model

Author:
Andreas Lichtenberger, Oliver Reiter, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We develop an agent-based stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model with multiple industries and supply chains to analyse the propagation of sectoral shocks. The model features five industries with heterogeneous firms producing final goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods. Key innovations are the distinction between homogeneous intermediate goods (produced on stock) and tailor-made capital goods (ordered in advance), reflecting differences in production processes and the usage of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for modelling household consumption behaviour. Calibrated to Austrian data using Eurostat sources and neural posterior estimation, the model is used to analyse the economy’s response to a sector-specific supply shock, illustrated through the example of a flooding event affecting the primary sector. Our results demonstrate that inventory levels critically determine economic resilience: a 100-year flood has limited impact regardless of the industry setup, but under a 1,000-year flood, low inventory ratios trigger a vicious circle in which supply shortages cascade across industries, preventing reconstruction and causing a prolonged GDP contraction. High inventory buffers, by contrast, enable rapid recovery. Hence, the structural decomposition into industries becomes decisive when inventories are low, revealing that interdependencies matter most during supply-constrained crises. These findings highlight the importance of explicitly modelling industry interdependencies and inventory dynamics for understanding shock propagation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Macroeconomics, Supply Chains, Input-Output Analysis, and Shock Propagation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

116. Quantifying the trade impact of SPS and TBTs with product-level structural gravity

Author:
Fabio Artuso, Julian L. Clarke, Lionel Fontagné, Mahdi Ghodsi, and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Non-tariff measures (NTMs), especially sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs), have become crucial components of climate, industrial, and regulatory policy, impacting the majority of global trade. However, quantifying their effects on trade is challenging because NTMs are usually non-discriminatory and challenging to identify in standard gravity frameworks. Using a multi-stage structural gravity estimation strategy combined with a control-function correction for endogeneity, we estimate the trade elasticities and ad valorem equivalents of NTMs at the HS6 level for over 5,000 products. Our results reveal significant heterogeneity in NTM trade costs, especially in environmentally relevant sectors, such as clean technologies and electric vehicles. These estimates can inform regulatory impact assessments and general-equilibrium analyses of climate-aligned trade policies.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Non-Tariff Measures, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

117. Optimal and threshold tariffs, trade balance and welfare in a small open Ricardian economy

Author:
Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
09-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper draws on a Ricardian model for a small open economy and derives the welfare implications of tariffs. By focusing on three key parameters – (i) the expenditure share on imports, (ii) the degree of tariff pass-through, and (iii) the proportion of tariff revenues spent domestically – the model provides closed-form expressions for welfare, optimal tariff rates, and threshold tariff levels. The analysis explains why the marginal effectiveness of increasing tariff rates declines and might even become negative as well as why real wage income typically diverges from total income when tariff revenues are saved rather than spent. The results indicate that high pass-through of tariffs substantially limits potential welfare gains from tariffs even at the optimal rate. Improvements in the trade balance only arise when tariff revenues are not fully recycled into domestic demand. However, welfare is also lower when the optimal tariff rate is applied in such a case. The framework captures mechanisms consistent with more complex trade models and highlights the narrow range of conditions under which tariff policy can yield positive welfare outcomes.
Topic:
Economics, Tariffs, Trade, and Ricardian Trade Model
Political Geography:
Global Focus

118. Workarounding While the International Order Fractures

Author:
Laura Mahrenbach, Gedaliah Afterman, Maximilian Mayer, and Narayanappa Janardhan
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
In an increasingly multipolar world, middle powers are resisting their relegation to pawns in the US–China rivalry. Instead, they are forging a path independent of great power competition by building mutual networks of middle power cooperation that “work around” great powers such as the United States and China. This brief outlines initial results from an original new database of such “workarounding” agreements between middle powers. It finds that workarounding agreements among middle powers are rapidly increasing in the technology sphere. Middle powers such as India, Germany, France, South Korea, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Japan are using workarounding to build a dense network of cooperation across regions and sectors, increasing practical capacity in energy, ports, data, defense, finance, and industrial policy. Workarounding is multifaceted in practice, creating new trade structures and rules, reshaping supply chains via tech and industrial partnerships, shifting industrial capacities and innovation dynamics, developing alternatives to US defense technology, modernizing core state functions, and diversifying payment infrastructures. It may represent the nucleus of emerging new forms of global order arising in response to the US’s rejection of its previous role in the liberal international system. Rather than establishing full autonomy, workarounding provides middle powers with strategic space and maneuverability, working with the US or China when it advances a country’s self-interest while building separate channels to reduce exposure, improve bargaining power, and keep critical sectors moving amid great power instability. Workarounding measures have proven crucial during the global energy crisis caused by the US–Israel war with Iran. The US should resist viewing workarounding as an inherent threat to its national interests. Rather than imposing tech supremacy through coercion, the US should see workarounding as an opportunity for interest-based engagement, particularly related to supply chain diversification, energy security, and regional security. Attempting to block this emerging dynamic in global politics risks increasing disillusionment with the US across the globe.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, International Order, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

119. Private Military Companies, Necropower and Fragile States

Author:
Karina Junqueira and Cristiano Mendes
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Private military companies (PMCs) have gained prominence in the international arena since the end of the Cold War. Offering a wide range of services, these companies have been contracted by state and private actors to operate in international conflicts. The use of these companies, however, has raised suspicions about the legitimacy of their actions, especially when they provide agents for direct involvement in conflicts occurring in fragile states. This is because these groups have promoted massacres against unarmed civilian populations, which no longer constitute collateral damage but rather a target. A target of necropower exercised by PMCs in the context of what Achilles Mbembe termed contemporary wars, where war is not only waged by states and their regular armies, but where coercion has become a market product, and military service can be bought and sold. The objective of this article, therefore, is to analyse the actions of PMCs in conflict situations in fragile states as an exercise of necropower, where technologies of destruction are used and sovereign decisions are made about life and death. To this end, the methodology employed is a conceptual and theoretical analysis, applying Foucault, Agamben, and Mbembe’s concepts to the PMCs’ actions in fragile states.
Topic:
War, Fragile States, Massacre, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Necropower
Political Geography:
Global Focus

120. Peacekeepers, Civilians and Threats: (De)constructing Identities in the UN Discourse on Robust and Stabilization Peace Operations

Author:
Matheus Souza
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Robust and stabilization peace operations rely on the premise that an increased use of force enables UN peacekeepers to protect civilians from threats to peace and security. While research has examined these types of operations as well as their mandates and contemporary challenges, fundamental questions remain: Who is permitted to use force in the name of peace, and why? Who is deemed worthy of UN protection, and which actors are considered by the UN a security threat? This article fills this gap by performing a deconstructivist discourse analysis which investigates the identity construction of the UN and its peacekeepers, civilians and armed groups in seven key UN documents and advisory reports. The discourse analysis uncovers the constructed identities of the UN as protectors, civilians as vulnerable but also agents of societal change, and armed groups as inherently the main source of hostility. However, I deconstruct these identities by examining the UN’s recognition of peacekeepers’ limited capacity to protect, its portrayal of civilians as powerless victims reliant on external aid, and the violent behavior of peacekeepers which has been instigated in more recent discourses on stabilization peace operations.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Identity, Discourse Analysis, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

121. Contemporary Terrorism: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Yoslán Silverio González
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Studying the impact of terrorism on international relations is of vital importance due to the implications not only local and regional but also within the international system. The phenomenon of terrorism is not exclusive to a region or a country, it can affect everyone in indirect ways. In this sense, it crosses borders and does not understand nationalities. The most dangerous thing is the treatment given to it in international forums, multilateral orga-nizations, and the media since it is presented as a threat to security, but to legitimize military actions by Western powers or to delegitimize governments “not prone to the West”.This article is based on a conceptual proposal that helps to understand the phenomenon of terrorism from a non-Western perspective, criticizing the positions of the United States in this regard. The main objective is to deepen the debate around the concept of terrorism, its erroneous link to Islam, and to nationalist and/or revolutionary movements. It is also pertinent to see how it has been legally defined by international law, through resolutions, conventions, and protocols of different multilateral organizations, including the African Union (AU).
Topic:
International Relations, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Global South, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

122. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero

Author:
Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
Topic:
Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:
Global Focus

123. What Does It Mean for Agencies to Be Effective in a Changing Development Landscape?

Author:
Rachael Calleja, Sara Casadevall Bellés, and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
For official bilateral development agencies, the realities of providing effective development cooperation are increasingly complex, as competing demands and changing international and domestic contexts are raising fundamental questions around what it means to be an effective agency. This paper explores the concept of agency effectiveness to demonstrate why agencies – and their leadership – should consider how their structures and processes interact with the changing landscape as part of their efforts to remain relevant and resilient. To do so, we consider how the current challenges facing agencies – including the need to respond to climate change, global instability, and changing domestic political environments – affect why agencies act, what they do, and how they do it. We then explore dominant understandings of agency effectiveness, which provide a lens for thinking about what it may mean for agencies to be effective in the years ahead. Overall, we suggest that the challenges facing development agencies in the changing landscape raise key issues for agencies to consider, particularly around what they prioritise, how they are structured, and the capabilities or ways of working needed to respond to complex demands. While there is unlikely to be a single approach for agencies looking to adapt to changing contexts, considering the implications of new – and future – pressures for the work of development agencies will be a necessary first step towards supporting their resilience and relevance in the years ahead.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

124. The Future of Official Development Assistance: Incremental Improvements or Radical Reform?

Author:
Masood Ahmed, Rachael Calleja, and Pierre Jacquet
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, donor country governments have faced new and additional demands for financing international challenges, including providing global public goods (GPGs) and addressing historically high numbers of refugees and humanitarian crises. They have partly done so by re-allocating their official development assistance (ODA) away from its original aim: to support poverty reduction and growth in developing countries. This has led to questions about the integrity and credibility of ODA. These questions are only likely to grow more pertinent in the coming decade because the pressures on ODA—and on public finances more broadly—are here to stay. ODA budgets are being cut in a number of traditional donor countries and what remains is increasingly being deployed to meet emerging needs beyond traditional development and to reflect a more national security perspective on development cooperation. The time is right, therefore, to ask whether the concept and accounting for ODA need to be modified to ensure that the needy and vulnerable it was designed to serve continue to be protected in the face of fiscal constraints and changing geopolitical circumstances. This report, a compendium on the future of ODA, aims to provide fresh thinking and inspire the action needed for ODA to remain relevant and effective. It brings together reflections and proposals from leading experts and practitioners, including the under-secretary-general and executive director of UNOPS to a former DAC chair, to inform policymakers. In this executive summary, we will introduce the key arguments from the compendium contributors. The contributions are organised into four key areas of discussion that reflect the main themes raised in this compendium: the rationale for ODA reform, the political and institutional realities shaping reform, using ODA for climate and leveraging private finance, and forward-looking proposals for reimagining ODA’s role and purpose.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Humanitarian Crisis, Donors, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

125. Aligning International Banking Regulation with the SDGs

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Basel III—the international standard for banking regulation—has strengthened global financial stability but has also led to unintended consequences that may hinder progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper examines how Basel III’s regulatory framework may restrict bank lending to SMEs (impacting SDG 10) and constrain infrastructure finance (impacting SDG 8). Addressing these challenges requires refining risk assessment methodologies while preserving Basel III’s core objective: accurate risk evaluation. For SMEs, tailoring risk weights using local credit registry data can better reflect economic conditions in emerging markets. For infrastructure, recognizing it as a distinct asset class and leveraging credit risk mitigation tools could improve financing. Greater engagement from multilateral institutions, particularly the World Bank, is essential to advancing these solutions while maintaining financial stability.
Topic:
Regulation, Financial Stability, Banking, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

126. Planned Relocation of Climate-Vulnerable Communities: Preparing Multilateral Development Banks

Author:
Steven Goldfinch and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Planned relocation of highly climate-vulnerable communities is becoming increasingly necessary as climate shocks become more frequent and intense. It is also becoming more feasible as modelling of future scenarios improves and adaptation limits become clearer. Despite this, many governments are underprepared for planning and implementing planned relocation projects. In the absence of an intergovernmentally agreed framework or set of principles on planned relocation, development finance, and specifically climate finance, is not well positioned to respond to this emerging demand from countries. This is heightened by a widespread absence of coherent domestic policies, and by institutional gaps in international assistance. Multilateral development banks, in particular, could be well-placed to fill this gap. They have extensive experience in undertaking relocation projects, including in contexts of climate adaptation. Multilateral development banks will increasingly field borrower country demand for both technical and financial assistance. They are, however, not yet prepared to meet this demand, nor are countries adequately equipped to make applications for support. This paper outlines emerging public policy regarding planned relocation, draws from existing standards on development-forced displacement and resettlement, and explores entry points for development financiers in providing technical assistance and finance. The paper proposes recommendations to multilateral development banks and the global climate funds on engaging in this emerging area.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Refugees, Displacement, Resettlement, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

127. Practical Guidance for Integrating Climate into WPS National Action Plans

Author:
Christina Vetter and Jessica Smith
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
In this practical guidance note, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security explores the capacity for National Action Plans on Women, Peace and Security (WPS NAPs) to be effective tools for national-level implementation of the WPS Agenda that is responsive to climate-related security risks. WPS NAPs have become the primary tool for national-level efforts to implement the WPS Agenda. To remain relevant and effective, NAPs must be responsive to the ever-changing security landscape and emerging threats to peace and security, like climate change. While the share of NAPs that mention climate change has slowly increased, many include just one cursory reference to climate change in the background section that does not comprehensively address the impacts of climate-related security risks across all four pillars of WPS or include specific actions or commitments related to climate in the NAP’s implementation framework. This report presents actionable policy recommendations for WPS NAPs to more meaningfully address climate change and related security risks throughout their design, drafting, and implementation. The report, authored by Christina Vetter and Dr. Jessica Smith, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

128. Advancing Gender, Climate, and Security in the UN Security Council: A Blueprint for Action

Author:
Jess Keller
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
In this policy brief, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security presents recommendations for advancing gender, climate, and security in the UN Security Council and opportunities for Member States and other relevant stakeholders to drive progress on these interconnected challenges. Despite growing recognition of how climate change multiplies risk and poses a threat to international peace and security, efforts to make climate change a standing item on the Security Council’s agenda have failed. Climate change disproportionately impacts women and threatens their security, yet frameworks like the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda have been slow to integrate climate considerations into thematic resolutions and National Action Plans (NAPs) on WPS. The international community must rapidly scale-up efforts to bridge these policy gaps and holistically address challenges at the nexus of gender, climate, and security. This policy brief explores best practices and offers specific recommendations for the Security Council, Member States, and international actors to integrate gender-responsive climate considerations into global peace and security efforts. The report, authored by Jess Keller, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Peace, UN Security Council, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

129. AI Governance and Geopolitical Challenges: What’s Next after Italy’s G7 Presidency?

Author:
Federica Marconi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Profound technological developments have marked recent years, coupled with increasing geopolitical instability and economic fragmentation driven by rising tensions between major powers. Emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), have been at the core of global competition due to their potential for enhancing productivity and fostering innovation. The technological race has started to extend also to the definition of global AI governance frameworks, with the United States, the EU and China pursuing divergent regulatory approaches and striving to influence countries, especially in the Global South, that are looking at the existing models for their national regulatory systems. Against this backdrop, international fora such as the G7 are called upon to play a key role in fostering dialogue on how to reconcile these divergent perspectives and shape global governance for AI.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Governance, G20, G7, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Italy and Global Focus

130. Dollar Colonisation: The Destructive Policy Implications of Modern Monetary Theory

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Modern monetary theory argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same policy space. The present paper argues that this position is wrong. For it to be valid, abstraction must be made from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from its backing mass of securities and is transmitted through international investment flows. On recognition of this gravitational force, it becomes clear that the huge size disparity separating the US financial market from those of other markets, and most notably those of the EMEs, translates into an equally huge disparity regarding policy space. The policy implications for EME governments are that they should, where possible, join their financial markets into regional blocs of sufficient sizes as can give their regional currencies enough backing mass to allow them to resist the gravitational pull of the dollar. Only by pooling their currency sovereignty can EME governments retain some scope for pursuing policies independently of those pursued by the US government. On the contrary, any such scope is destroyed if EME governments in countries with small financial markets follow the MMT's advice to retain their local currencies because that advice condemns these currencies to entrapment in the dollar's gravitational field and even possibly to outright dollar colonisation.
Topic:
Currency, Dollar, Colonization, and Modern Monetary Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

131. IMF, Structural Adjustment, and Poverty: A Cross-National Difference-in-Differences Analysis, 1980-2018

Author:
Shih-Yen Pan, Lawrence P. King, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international organizations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study, using data from 1980-2018 from 57 countries, we test competing hypotheses surrounding the impact of the IMF’s lending programs on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between “treatment” and “control” units based on their program participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average program effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF program participation leads to large increases (3.6-5.7 percentage points) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $3.65/day and $6.85/day international poverty lines (2017 PPP) and the countryspecific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programs have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing program effects. Overall, our findings show that IMF programs have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Organization, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

132. Investing in a Green Future: Finance, Industrial Policy and the Green transition

Author:
Ramaa Vasudevan
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
We present a framework to assess green climate finance and the pathways to building a climate aligned financial system. This would involve the strategic reorientation of central bank interventions, national development banks and multilateral and regional banks and coherent purposive collaborations between these institutions and interventions to decisively reshape the contemporary global financial system that is out of tune with the long-term imperatives of climate action. Aligning finance to climate goals at the necessary scale, pace and direction requires the calibration of financial flows across three axes: ‘public-private’; ‘real-financial’ and ‘national-international’. Along the first axis the naturedepleting, climate imperiling logic of short-term private profitability needs to be contained in order to pursue the public priorities of climate action. Along the second axis, policy efforts have to be geared to ensuring that financial flows are financing investments in climate mitigation and adaptation and not simply providing more fodder for the global portfolio glut and financial accumulation. Finally, along the third axis warding global funding and support on appropriate terms has to be provided to the most vulnerable countries while buttressing national ownership of the green mission.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

133. The Distribution of Climate Finance among Annex-II Countries: A CBDR-RC Approach for Partial Funding of the Developing Countries

Author:
Shouvik Chakraborty
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Developing nations face the significant challenge of reconciling their efforts in climate change mitigation with the urgent need for financial resources to adapt to climate-related disasters, achieve sustainable development, and stabilize their economies. The financial requirements for addressing climate impacts span various sectors, including energy transition, energy efficiency, transportation, agriculture, forestry, other land use (AFOLU), and adaptation strategies. Estimates provided by reputable international organizations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggest that the annual global climate finance needs may range from $4.2 trillion to $5.7 trillion. Within this framework, the share allocated to developing countries is estimated to constitute approximately $1.9 trillion to $2.0 trillion annually, mainly to support mitigation efforts. It is widely acknowledged that developing countries are unlikely to meet these financial demands independently. Consequently, it is projected that around $1 trillion must be sourced from advanced economies, particularly the AnnexII countries. This paper introduces a methodology grounded in the principles of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability (CBDR-RC). It facilitates a structured distribution of financing responsibilities among Annex II nations. The methodology incorporates the notion of historical responsibility, quantified as carbon debt, while also measuring capability through a balanced consideration of the wealth and gross domestic product (GDP) of the AnnexII countries. The analysis conducted reveals that the United States of America (USA) is required to contribute nearly half of the total financial obligations among the AnnexII countries, with the remaining funds to be apportioned among other nations within this group.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Climate Finance, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

134. Navigating Debt Sustainability: An In-Depth Analysis of the IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework and Its Critique

Author:
Hasan Cömert, Güney Düzçay, and T. Sabri Öncü
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the IMF's debt sustainability analyses (DSAs), delving into their methodologies and implications and highlighting their problems. Since 2002, the DSAs have been the cornerstone of the IMF programs, providing the primary analytical tool to justify and determine the paths and targets specified. Although the DSAs evolved significantly over time, they have severe foundational problems. They rely heavily on strong assumptions and staff judgments, and thereby, they are primarily non-transparent. Secondly, there are significant issues regarding the conduct of DSAs. They have grown excessively complex, hindering consensus on components without necessarily improving assessment quality. Thirdly, the IMF makes very high-stakes decisions with low precision, relying on persistent over-optimism in growth forecasting and paving the way for tighter fiscal policies. Fourthly, the debt dynamics equation of DSAs is inconsistent with stock flow dynamics because it focuses heavily on the primary balance as the main driver. Fifthly, the IMF's framework does not pay enough attention to the underlying reasons for accumulating external debt in developing nations. It often treats external borrowing as a substitute for domestic debt without accounting for the asymmetric international financial architecture.
Topic:
Debt, Fiscal Policy, Sustainability, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

135. National Dialogues x Transitional Justice

Author:
Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
In the aftermath of conflict, National Dialogue and Transitional Justice can both contribute to reconciliation and prevent the recurrence of violence. But what is the nexus between the two? What are key shared characteristics, goals, and complementarities? In this paper, Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield explore the interlinkages between National Dialogues and Transitional Justice. They also discuss open questions on how both processes can be further integrated in practice to enhance their relevance and effectiveness. Over the last two decades, National Dialogues have been increasingly recognised as a comprehensive tool for preventing violent conflicts and reaching inclusive political settlements. However, questions remain on how to best integrate certain topics in the design of National Dialogues and how to meaningfully include specific societal groups. The series “National Dialogues at crossroads” aims at addressing this gap. It compiles lessons learned and recommendations on four cross-cutting issues: climate change, digitalisation, protest movements, and Transitional Justice.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:
Global Focus

136. Introducing the Response to Sponsorship Dataset: Determinants of Responses by Target States to State Sponsors of Rebel Groups

Author:
Elif Hatun Kiliçbeylşa
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Empirical studies on the sponsorship of rebel groups have focused on understanding why and how supporter states help rebels, whether this engagement benefits the rebels, and the effects of sponsorship on the conflict outcomes. By comparison, the responses of target states to sponsorship behavior have been neglected despite the possibility of interstate crises, disputes, and conflict due to the sponsorship. This study introduces a new dataset, the Response Sponsorship Dataset (RSD), which measures target states’ responses toward state sponsors of rebel groups intending to terminate the sponsorship. The data includes information on the responses of 58 target states to 102 supporter states concerning the support of 150 rebel groups between 1991 and 2010, comprising 3719 observations. The RSD identifies diplomatic, economic, militarized, domestic, covert responses and inaction as target state responses as well as classifying them as coercive or non-coercive based on target states’ foreign policy engagements with sponsors. The RSD provides new opportunities for researchers and policymakers to analyze target responses with regards to conflict management and foreign policy as well as promising future research on support termination.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Alliance, Rivalry, Proxy Groups, and State Sponsorship
Political Geography:
Global Focus

137. Mediatised Terrorism: East-West Narratives of Risk

Author:
Seda Çolakoğlu
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
There is a growing body of literature in the social sciences that suggests that we live in a world surrounded by narratives that construct and interpret particular understandings of reality, that serve to make sense of the world. Following the understanding that everyone and everything has a narrative in the world we live in; it would not be wrong to say that these narratives appear in every shape and dimension. For instance, since the media also has a story to tell, we hear, watch, see and witness a wide variety of stories from the media. The media is therefore the producer and distributor of narratives. However, this emphasis has a deeper implication, namely that news stories are not simply a spiral of words describing events. This is because the media convey news to the receiving public by representing, constructing, and reconstructing it (through narratives). We frequently witness about various terrorist acts across the world via media. Saira Ali accurately examines this particular topic. Her book is for those who are concerned about how terrorism news is presented to audiences through the media and how it is made sense of in a country-specific and context-specific way. This approach also allows for a contextualisation of the construction of terrorism news narratives, within different cultural, social, and political contexts (p.5,10). The author embarks on an intellectual journey of curiosity regarding the mediatisation of terrorism in two distinct worlds. These worlds are Australia, where the risk of terrorism is quite low but it has taken drastic legal measures out of fear of global terrorism after 9/11, and Pakistan, with a more grey policy altough caught in the spiral of a complex terrorist atmospher. In this way, Ali’s intellectual effort is to interrogate the narrative that global terrorism is mostly damaging to Western civilisation by including the East in her analysis. Ali’s analysis is basically founded on an argument that “the reality of terrorism is constructed through discourse” (p. 6).
Topic:
Terrorism, Media, Book Review, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Global Focus

138. Diaspora Organisations in International Affairs

Author:
Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Diasporas and their organisations, which traditionally aimed to serve their interest in the homeland and abroad, have long been studied under several social science disciplines, such as anthropology, sociology, political science, and geography. At the beginning of the 2000s, for instance, human and political geographers started to focus on diaspora realizing that it is a geographical concept, which addresses various geographical themes such as dispersion, boundaries, territory (as homeland), and identity. The “geographical turn” contributed to the concept theoretically, and also to transnationalism and migration studies empirically by which cases were reconsidered through the lens of geographical concepts, such as space, place, and time. Similar to geographers’ arguments, diaspora organisations (DO) -as a distinct form of collectivity- and their activities are very relevant to what we study in International Relations (IR), especially when it comes to exploring DOs’ role that transcends state borders in development, human rights, conflict, and peace. In that regard, attempts to introduce novel contributions from various disciplines have the potential to significantly enhance our comprehension of the theory of diaspora and its associated organizations.
Topic:
International Affairs, Diaspora, Book Review, and Organizations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

139. The Impact of Stereotyping on International Cyber Norm‑making: Navigating Misperceptions and Building Trust

Author:
Fan Yang
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Over the past three decades, cyberspace – a digital realm shaped by both technological and social dynamics – has evolved into a domain where a wide range of human activities now take place. These activities are marked by their anonymity, which complicates attribution, and their instantaneity, which challenges timely regulation. To address these challenges, states focus on two approaches: applying existing laws and creating new ones. While there is a general consensus that cyberspace should be governed by the rule of law, including international law, the application of existing legal frameworks to cyberspace remains an evolving challenge both in terms of state practice and academic discourse. At the same time, the international community has consistently sought to develop new norms to promote good governance in cyberspace. Against this backdrop, states – especially those with advanced cyber capabilities – are engaging in a competitive game of norm-making, striving to exert influence in shaping international rules to govern cyberspace. As part of this process, states often categorise each other by trying to highlight their counterparts’ most distinct characteristics. While such labelling is common in diplomatic interactions, it is particularly problematic in the context of international cyber norm-making. Labels reflect and reinforce stereotypes, which often oversimplify the complexities of states’ behavioural patterns in cyberspace and their underlying logic. States are thus roughly grouped by opposing indicators, such as those viewing cyberspace as a global commons versus sovereign territory, those advocating for an interconnected free Internet versus a fragmented “splinternet”, or those favouring multistakeholderism versus multilateralism as the dominant approach to the governance of cyberspace. Once established, these stereotypes are difficult to dismantle and can lead to distorted perceptions that obstruct constructive dialogue. This GCSP Policy Brief aims to identify the potential security challenges posed by stereotyping in international cyber norm-making processes. It then illustrates the policy implications of this problem and offers policy recommendations.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Norms, Cyberspace, and Trust
Political Geography:
Global Focus

140. Managing Global Biological Risks: Towards a Security-Health Coordination Framework

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Jeselyn, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The task of securing the world against biological risks is complicated by enforcement and information challenges. A security-health coordination framework is crucial for securing cooperation among a diverse set of actors with different but converging mandates.
Topic:
Security, Biosecurity, Crisis Management, Risk, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

141. Social contracts and the UN’s “Common Goals”: conceptualising a new role for international organisations

Author:
Markus Loewe and Tina Zintl
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Researchers, policymakers and the representatives of international organisations increasingly use the term “social contract” to describe relations between societal groups and a state. The United Nations (UN) Secretary-General, for example, has declared that “now is the time to renew the social contract between Governments and their people and within societies” in his report Our common agenda (UN, 2021, p. 5). Likewise, the Director General of the International Labour Organization (ILO) has recently issued a report Towards a renewed social contract (ILO, 2024). The question is whether all those applying the term “social contract” have a common understanding of its meaning. We suggest defining a social contract as the “entirety of explicit or implicit agreements between all relevant societal groups and the sovereign (i.e. the government or any other actor in power), defining their rights and obligations toward each other” (Loewe, Zintl, & Houdret, 2021). Today, all countries with some form of government have national social contracts, but there are wide variations between them. For instance, some social contracts are more inclusive than others, giving more rights to society. Some treat different societal groups differently, depending on their respective power and the interests of the government. And, crucially, only some social contracts consider, at least to some degree, the interests of those who are, by definition or because of their limited power, unable to voice their concerns in any renegotiation of the social contract – children, future generations, the environment, foreigners and marginalised social groups. The UN Secretary-General’s report rightly complains that people in many countries feel increasingly alienated from the social contract (UN, 2021, p. 22) and that social contracts ignore the rights of future generations. In many countries, social contracts give rights to some influential groups in society to use available resources without consideration for less powerful groups, future generations and environmental concerns. International organisations thus have four important roles to play. First, they can support the national process of social contract renegotiations: ease the dialogue between all interest groups inside member countries, encourage the involvement of less powerful actors and provide neutral and open fora for the negotiations. Second, they can engage in a dialogue with member states that are reluctant to reform social contracts, emphasising that such reform can mitigate or help to prevent terrorism, violent protest and mass migration. Third, international organisations can prepare themselves to get involved when shocks happen in particular member countries and use the momentum to foster substantial reforms. Fourth, international organisations should continue building supra-national social contracts. All too often, the parties of national social contracts negotiate unsustainable rules at national level that, for instance, expose workers to health hazards or harm the environment, with the argument that they have to be able to compete with other countries. International agreements are therefore important to establish minimum norms and standards, prevent a race to the bottom and reinforce multilateralism.
Topic:
International Organization, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Social Contract
Political Geography:
Global Focus

142. Global health at a crossroads: policy recommendations in light of the Lancet Global Health 2050 Report

Author:
Christoph Strupat, Marco Schäferhoff, Martin Siegel, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
At a time of global crisis and competing priorities, investing in health is among the most impactful and cost-effective decisions governments and stakeholders can make. Beyond being a fundamental right, health is a catalyst for growth, stability and resilience – particularly in uncertain times. The new Global Health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (Global Health 2050) report (Jamison et al., 2024) of the Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (the Commission) builds on a legacy of evidence-driven reports to provide strategies for making health a cross-cutting enabler of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Global Health 2050 provides a roadmap for further health improvements in all countries by mid-century, arguing that by 2050 countries can reduce by 50% the probability of premature death (PPD) in their populations. The Commission calls this goal “50 by 50”. Germany has solidified its role in global health through significant investments in the health sector and by designating global health as a political priority, as demonstrated by its Global Health Strategy and the inclusion of global health as one of the core themes of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Given this political priority, it is essential to assess the implications of the Global Health 2050 report for Germany’s global health agenda, especially as global health stands at a crossroads following the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the World Health Organization (WHO) and cuts to its global health programmes. Therefore, the aim of this policy brief is to build upon the Commission’s findings and draw from scientific evidence to provide key recommendations for Germany’s global health agenda. Five recommendations have been synthesised that align with Germany’s global health engagement and offer promising strategies to help achieve the 50 by 50 goal: 1. Sustain or ideally increase funding for the Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria at the upcoming replenishment conferences and strengthen Germany’s global health leadership through strong bilateral support, investments in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR) and better interministerial coordination. 2. Reconsider non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in future strategic direction of German international cooperation by reducing financial and geo-graphical barriers to access to medicines and addressing key NCD risk factors. 3. Promote health taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages that can serve as an effective strategy to improve public health and generate domestic revenue. 4. Increase funding for R&D in neglected diseases. Expand regional manufacturing, and enhance global health innovation coordination to strength-en global health security and reduce dependence on external supply chains. 5. Nepal serves as a good example of Germany’s bilateral health and social protection support: advancing the 50 by 50 goal could be achieved by strengthening national health insurance, addressing climate risks, expanding health taxes and enhancing pharmaceutical access through the Arrow mechanism.
Topic:
Development, Investment, Public Health, Global Health, and Disease
Political Geography:
Global Focus

143. Enhancing public works programmes: sustainable impact through participatory asset creation and digitalisation

Author:
Francesco Burchi and Tekalign Gutu Sakketa
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Public works programmes (PWPs) are widely used social protection instruments in low- and middle-income countries. Participants carry out temporary, labour-intensive works in exchange for cash or in-kind compensation. The available empirical evidence indicates that these programmes are usually effective in improving outcomes such as food security and earnings in the short term, but these positive effects rarely persist in the long term. Our knowledge of PWPs’ effectiveness is, however, incomplete as scholars have mostly examined programme impacts through the wage channel, largely neglecting the skill-development and, especially, the asset channels. PWP participants engage in the construction of assets, such as roads, check dams and sewage systems, that could provide important benefits for the whole community. Without assessing these effects, it is normal to arrive at the general (biased) conclusion that cash transfers (CTs) are always more cost-effective than PWPs. Moreover, the effectiveness of PWPs largely depends on programme design, implementation and context. Based on the existing empirical evidence and our recent fieldwork to analyse Malawi’s PWP, this policy brief provides the following policy recommendations for how to enhance the potential of these programmes. • Policy-makers should design PWPs to guarantee stable, reliable employment; set wages not higher than market levels but high enough to incentivise participation; ensure transparency in the targeting, possibly by involving communities and at the sametime avoiding elite capture; align the timing of work cycles with local agricultural calendars; and assign tasks in a way that reduces travel burdens,especially for women. • Policy-makers should promote active community participation in the identification and maintenance of the assets created through PWPs. Evidence points to the importance of community participation for the implementation of higher quality infrastructure and better long-term maintenance. Only in this way, can these assets provide sustainable benefits not just for programme participants, but for the entire community. Approaches like those used in Ethiopia and Malawi can serve as models to enhance active community participation in the programme cycle. • Digitalisation of PWPs (and social protection ingeneral) should be promoted as it offers great advantages, but specific measures should be adopted to avoid their negative consequences: 1. The construction of a digital registry of beneficiaries is a great tool to reach the intended beneficiaries and coordinate the various schemes. Development cooperation actors should provide technical support for the creation and updating of these databases, then leave them in the hands of national institutions. 2. The digitalisation of reporting systems for work activities is likely to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the information reported. To achieve this, it is essential to provide the “digitisers” withproper training. 3. It is important to move from physical cash payments to e-payments, but it is firstly necessary to ensure adequate digital literacy through training. Moreover, to compensate for the impossibility to interact with programme officials at the time of payment, PWPs should include complaint handling points, as is done in India.
Topic:
Development, Digitalization, Assets, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

144. Can guarantees effectively leverage financing for SMEs in low- and middle-income countries?

Author:
Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require significant financing and investment, particularly as growing challenges from climate events highlight the insufficiency of public funds to meet the 2030 Agenda (World Economic Forum 2024). Private capital for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) surged in recent years, with significant commitments from multilateral development banks (MDBs). However, the financing gap to achieve the SDGs remains sizable, highlighting the need for greater effort to mobilise much larger private capital for sustainable development. In recent years, guarantees have emerged as a key leveraging mechanism. They are designed to mitigate high investment risks to support private capital mobilisation in LMICs. However, despite some progress, guarantees are used sparingly, suggesting considerable scope for increasing their scale, as highlighted by the G20 Independent Expert Group (IEG). This Policy Brief examines whether guarantees can serve as an effective leveraging mechanism for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This is especially so because SMEs remain largely hampered by poor access to finance, despite their key role in providing jobs for the local population and contributing to economic growth. Moreover, in the face of climate change, SME adaptation requires new investments in climate-resistant technologies and clean energies, highlighting the need for additional financing amid severe constraints on access to capital. Guarantees can complement other leveraging mechanisms, further easing financing constraints for SMEs in LMICs. Guarantees can absorb some of the risks associated with investment, offering financial institutions greater security. This added security can, in turn, help improve access to capital for SMEs. On the other hand, they can also help catalyse private sector investment in LMICs. Recognising both the potential benefits and short-comings of guarantees, this Policy Brief provides the following policy recommendations on how guarantees could be extended efficiently to the SME sector in LMICs. • Guarantees should be directed at financial institu-tions to mitigate portfolio risk and actively promote lending to small projects or SMEs in high-risk sectors, particularly those with the potential to generate substantial economic, environmental, or social benefits. • Complement guarantees with additional measures to improve SMEs’ financial management, enhance risk assessment, and strengthen technical capacity through professional training and advisory services. • Implement partial credit guarantees to require financial institutions to retain a share of the risk, thereby reducing moral hazard and promoting rigorous analyses of borrowers’ creditworthiness. Complement these guarantees with conditionalities and monitoring criteria, such as regular reporting, to ensure the incrementality and additionality of guaranteed financing. Enhance the harmonisation of guarantees with other leveraging mechanisms, improve coordination among MDBs and DFIs, and streamline guarantee frameworks to achieve greater efficiency. • Recognise that guarantees alone cannot address structural vulnerabilities and institutional weakness in LMICs; a long-term commitment from decision-makers is essential to improve institutional and economic performance.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

145. A new development paradigm and strategy for the OECD (and beyond): what should the ‘D’ of OECD stand for?

Author:
Andy Sumner, Stephan Klingebiel, and Arief Anshory Yusuf
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the evolving role of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in addressing global development challenges in the mid-2020s. At a time when a new development strategy is being drafted for the OECD, we provide a fresh perspective by exploring the tensions inherent in the definition of “development” and asking whose development the OECD seeks to support. Historically, the OECD extended its remit beyond its membership through mechanisms such as Official Development Assistance (ODA). However, considering the increasing prominence of South–South cooperation, private sector investment and intensifying geopolitical competition, ODA alone is insufficient for sustainable development needs, and for many countries of the Global South ODA no longer matters as much as it used to due to the growth of domestic resources. One of the most significant shifts within the OECD itself in recent years is in its identity, largely as a result of its expanding membership. This now totals 38 countries, including some from the Global South, and this trend is set to continue, with a set of Southern countries currently in the accession process. While this enlargement may strengthen the OECD’s relevance in a multipolar world, it also challenges the organisation’s traditional identity as a “club of mostly rich countries”, as The Economist has often referred to it. Employing a novel 2x2 matrix framework, we delineate four strategic scenarios for OECD development strategy: (i) “traditional development” within OECD member states (D-within), (ii) traditional development beyond OECD membership (D-beyond), (iii) “frontier development” within OECD member states, and (iv) frontier development beyond the organisation’s membership. The use of the term “traditional development” refers to an aggregate growth orientation of development without reference to inclusivity or sustainability. “Frontier development” is then the converse. The authors argue for an OECD development strategy that bridges “D-within” and “D-beyond”, by acknowledging the transnational spillover effects of the domestic policies of OECD countries on the Global South. Further, across the matrix framework, we advocate for the OECD to strengthen its engagement with the analysis and promotion of policy coherence for sustainable development (PCSD) as a means of providing global leadership in sustainable development. In theory, promoting PCSD necessitates the integration of economic, social and environmental dimensions across all policy areas, alongside a commitment to addressing long-term and transboundary impacts. Further, we highlight the imperative of engaging non-member states to enhance the inclusivity and relevance of the OECD’s development strategy within an increasingly multipolar global order. In sum, we argue that the OECD is at a pivotal juncture. Its capacity to adapt and redefine its developmental mandate will determine its future relevance in the global governance architecture. By prioritising leadership on global sustainable development, PSCD and an inclusive approach to non-OECD members, the OECD has the potential to serve as a transformative force.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, and OECD
Political Geography:
Global Focus

146. Financing for development: from Monterrey to Seville

Author:
Stephan Klingebiel, Jorge A. Pérez-Pineda, and Kathrin Berensmann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The United Nations financing for development process, including the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) in Seville in 2025, is an important building block to foster global cooperation amid the current geopolitical tensions and multiple crises that have led to increased development financing needs on the one hand, and increased spending on the other, with the OECD estimating that the financing gap in funding required for developing countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals is $3.9 trillion per year. Against this backdrop, a coordinated international effort is essential to increase the scale and effectiveness of development financing and promote sustainable development globally, particularly in line with the 2030 Agenda. The overarching goal of the FfD process, including FfD4, is to mobilise adequate financial resources for the sustainable development of countries in the Global South, and to design appropriate architectures for development and sustainable finance. The FfD process is unique in that it takes a holistic approach, involving all sources of development finance and all public and private stakeholders. In this respect, the FfD process has an extraordinary convening power. The purpose of this Discussion Paper is to provide meaningful input to the preparatory process of FfD4 by offering insights into key challenges, opportunities and innovative approaches. The paper aims to contribute to the broader dialogue on financing for sustainable development and support informed decision-making for a robust and inclusive development agenda beyond 2030. Topics range from reforms of official development assistance, innovative approaches to private-sector and sustainable finance, and innovative reforms of multilateral development banks.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and OECD
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Global South

147. How to deal with the current debt crisis of developing countries?

Author:
Jürgen K. Zattler
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Many countries are still struggling with high and rising debt levels. The economic impact of the pandemic, as well as some longer-term structural factors, explain this situation. The key problem is the high level of debt service relative to government revenues, which makes it difficult to address growing development, social and climate challenges. As this is a particular problem for low-income countries (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), the focus should be on these countries. But even within this group, the situation is not uniform. A differentiated approach with different components is therefore needed, depending on countries’ individual situations and their own priorities and choices. There have been many contributions to this debate and proposals on how to address the current problems. This paper builds on some of those contributions presenting a practical and coherent approach to address the current debt crisis which focuses as far as possible on incentives for debtor countries and private creditors. Importantly, a distinction should be made between countries with high debt levels that are at risk of debt distress and those with liquidity problems. Therefore, debt sustainability assessments (DSAs) are needed to decide which countries (a) are not in debt distress, (b) have an insolvency problem, and (c) have a liquidity problem. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank should be asked to classify all LICs and LMICs accordingly, based on updated DSAs, using a prudent approach with conservative projections. These DSAs must emphasise debt service indicators. For countries with liquidity problems, they need to identify those countries where the problem is of a longer-term nature, with a risk that the liquidity squeeze will turn into acute debt distress. All LICs and LMICs facing insolvency or liquidity problems should be offered a moratorium similar to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) to give them breathing space (of 2-3 years). The expectation is that this would help countries with liquidity problems to maintain basic social and economic services until market conditions improve or debt relief is implemented. In cases where debt service remains high after the moratorium expires, the country would be expected to request debt relief. Countries at risk of default would be expected to use the period of the moratorium to engage promptly in restructuring discussions and to prepare negotiations with creditors on a debt relief programme. The IMF would make its resources conditional on a suspension of debt service payments. The question is whether private creditors, including sovereign bondholders, should be required to participate. It is suggested that a distinction be made between two categories of countries. For countries at risk of insolvency, including those with longer-term liquidity problems, the moratorium should be conditional on private participation on comparable terms, as their creditworthiness is likely to be affected anyway. In contrast, with countries facing short-term liquidity problems the approach should be more flexible. While pressure on private creditors to join a standstill should be maximised, this should be complemented by strong incentives. Countries with unsustainable debt would request treatment under a reformed G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment (CF) with the option of a more comprehensive debt relief arrangement (“CF+”), including the following enhanced or new components: • At the beginning of the process, countries would have to present a “Just Green Transition Programme” (JGTP), monitored by the IMF and the World Bank. • The CF+ would be accompanied by more comprehensive debt relief, thus creating more fiscal space to allow the country to finance transformational and social investments. Debt service after rescheduling should be based on DSAs, which pay greater attention to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) investments and countries’ particular circumstances, leaving countries with substantial room to absorb shocks. The objective would be to limit the debt burden to external creditors as a share of revenue after rescheduling to around 10-15 per cent. • For those countries where a large part of the debt service will be due to multilateral creditors, the involvement of multilateral institutions should be considered. This should be the case for those multilateral creditors which are not willing, or able, to provide positive net flows at highly concessional terms. • The issuance of “Brady-like” bonds could be considered for specific country cases. The issuance of Brady-like bonds could be an incentive to maximise private creditor participation in exchanging old debt for new bonds with a significant discount or “haircut”.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Sustainability, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

148. Macroprudential policies and private domestic investment in developing countries: an instrumental variables approach

Author:
Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of macroprudential policies on private domestic investment using a panel of 87 developing countries from 2000 to 2017. Our instrumental variables strategy exploits the geographic diffusion of macroprudential policies across countries, with the idea that reforms in neighbouring countries can affect the adoption or strengthening of domestic reforms through peer pressure or imitation effects. The findings indicate that the tightening of macro-prudential policies significantly reduces private domestic investment. This effect holds for both instruments targeting borrowers and those targeting financial institutions, and is subject to heterogeneity depending on several economic and institutional factors. The transmission channel analysis highlights that the negative impact of macroprudential policies on investment is primarily driven by a reduction in credit supply and financial inclusion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Finance, Investment, and Macroprudential Policies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

149. Recent Global Business Cycles: Characteristics and Implications

Author:
Sang-Ha Yoon
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The analysis of economic patterns from late 1999 to 2023 reveals significant changes in how the world's economies connect with each other. Our research shows a clear trend toward more varied economic patterns, with regional and country-specific factors becoming more important than global influences. This shift became particularly noticeable after the COVID-19 pandemic, where we saw global factors having less influence on national economies than before. The study's findings have important implications for economic policy making. Countries need to develop flexible approaches that can adapt to both global and regional economic changes. At the same time, they must strengthen regional economic cooperation while maintaining domestic economic stability. The findings also highlight the importance of building better systems for responding to economic crises, while considering both regional and global factors in economic policy decisions. These changes suggest that the global economy is becoming more complex, with different regions and countries showing more independent movement than before. As this trend continues, the ability to balance global, regional, and domestic economic relationships will become increasingly important for maintaining economic stability and promoting growth.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Economic Growth, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

150. Funding Climate Mobility Projects: Key Players and Strategies for Growth

Author:
Lawrence Huang and Samuel Davidoff-Gore
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
While international donors have long supported responses to displacement driven by natural disasters, climate change is reshaping the challenge at hand. It can worsen extreme weather events such as storms while also posing slower-onset threats such as desertification and sea level rise, which can directly and indirectly force people to move. The growing scale and complexity of climate-related mobility thus requires a paradigm shift in global funding for responses. This issue brief provides an overview of how development funders are responding to climate mobility issues, highlights entry points for donors interested in engaging on this issue, and outlines common barriers and strategies to overcome them. It examines development assistance provided via both bilateral cooperation and multilateral funding, through multilateral development banks, global climate funds, and more. This research draws on insights shared by representatives of donor governments, philanthropic foundations, and multilateral development banks as part of a multi-year Donor Community of Practice on Climate Mobility.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, Mobility, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:
Global Focus