Political Geography: Global Focus

201. Working from Home and Mental Well-being in the EU at Different Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Gendered Look at Key Mediators

Author:: Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper analyses the relationship between working from home (WFH) and mental well-being at different stages during the first two critical years of the COVID-19 pandemic, when governments repeatedly imposed lockdowns and enacted WFH mandates to contain the spread of the virus. Using data from a representative survey conducted at four different time periods in 2020 (first lockdown, subsequent gradual reopening), 2021 (further lockdown) and 2022 (restrictions widely lifted) in the 27 EU member states, it examines the potentially changing role of several mediators over time, such as work-family conflict, family-work conflict, stability, resilience, isolation, the importance of different support networks, workload, physical risk of contracting COVID-19 at work, and housing conditions. For the first lockdown, it also differentiates by previous WFH experience, in terms of WFH novices and experienced WFH workers. It differentiates by gender, in order to take the potential gendered nature and effect of COVID-19 measures into account. The results show that while there was no direct relationship between WFH and mental well-being, there are several important mediators whose relevance was specific not only to certain stages of the pandemic, but also to previous experience with WFH and gender. Stability is the only mediator that was relevant over the entire two-year pandemic period. Work-family conflict and family-work conflict were only relevant during the first lockdown, while resilience and isolation mattered especially when most of the EU economies had lifted most of their restrictions. Unlike established WFH workers, WFH novices had an advantage during the first lockdown, benefiting from lower family-work conflict and more helpful networks of family and friends. Moreover, our results differ by gender: for females who undertook WFH, important mediators were work-family conflict and family-work conflict. Both were related to adjustments they had to make in work and non-work hours in response to the enforced closure of schools and childcare facilities during the lockdowns, especially during the first. For males who undertook WFH, especially WFH novices, support from networks of family and friends was an important mediator.
Topic:: Labor Issues, European Union, Mental Health, COVID-19, Well-Being, and Working from Home
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

202. Private Finance and the Quest to Remake Modern Warfare

Author:: Michael Brenes and William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Official Washington is all in on promoting a new type of warfare based on military applications of AI and other emerging technologies. This determination was on full display last year when the Biden administration unveiled the “Replicator” initiative, an attempt to develop swarms of high-tech weapons systems at relatively low cost, and in numbers capable of overwhelming any potential adversary. But the history of so-called miracle weapons offers ample reasons to doubt Replicator’s supposedly transformative potential. Previous innovations, from the “electronic battlefield” in Vietnam to drone warfare in the Global War on Terrorism, did not, in fact, revolutionize war as we know it. Cutting-edge technology is no substitute for sound strategy or a realistic assessment of what military force can achieve. Unfortunately, so far, at least, these lessons from history have been no match for the boosterism of venture capital (VC) firms that pride themselves on disrupting industries and overturning conventional wisdom. While estimates of total VC funding of emerging military technology vary widely, it is clear that private investments in emerging weapons technologies are large and growing, driven by a handful of major Silicon Valley players, including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Andreessen-Horowitz. Companies backed by these firms, including Palantir, Anduril, and SpaceX, have already landed major contracts for weapons systems that incorporate next-generation technology. These firms and their allies in the Pentagon and Congress are determined to move full speed ahead on the development and deployment of weapons based on AI and other technological innovations, despite many unanswered questions about the costs and risks involved. While the bulk of Pentagon funding still goes to the “big five” contractors — Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon), Boeing, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman — VC-backed startups aspire to become the future of military contracting, and they hope that AI and other emerging technologies will be their ticket. These startups may prove to be more nimble and innovative than the bloated, top-heavy firms that currently dominate the arms industry, but they should not be allowed to operate with impunity. Congress must establish ground rules that prevent military startups from exploiting the procurement process in ways that pad their bottom lines while providing flawed systems — outcomes that we have seen all too often from their traditional rivals. What is most important, the rush to profit from emerging military tech cannot be allowed to short-circuit the careful scrutiny and wide-ranging public debate that must precede any move toward a brave new world of autonomous warfare in which human intervention in the kill chain is significantly reduced, if not eliminated. This brief offers policymakers a framework for ensuring that unsupported promises to “reinvent” warfare don’t exacerbate the cycle of corruption and waste that has all too often plagued the Pentagon’s procurement process, to the detriment of our safety and security.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Finance, Grand Strategy, and Warfare
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

203. Responsibly Demilitarizing U.S.–Mexico Bilateral Security Relations

Author:: Aileen Teague
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: These are trying times for U.S.–Mexico relations. As America’s opioid epidemic reaches unprecedented proportions, U.S. politicians have begun to advocate unilateral military action against Mexican drug cartels in sovereign Mexican territory. This approach would not only do extraordinary damage to one of America’s most vital international relationships, but also carry a real risk of importing violence to the United States. The calls for military action have infuriated Mexico’s leaders, who in turn criticize America’s broken and inhumane border security and Washington’s inability to curb the seemingly insatiable demand for drugs in the United States. The basis for the neighboring nations’ security cooperation, the 2008 Mérida Initiative, seems to have failed, largely failing to stem the tide of violence and instability in Mexico, or to halt the cross border flow of migrants, guns, and drugs. The result is poor regional security and a deteriorating bilateral relationship. There is reason to hope that the Plan Mérida’s replacement, the U.S.–Mexico Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities, will strengthen bilateral cooperation and help put security relations on a path to demilitarization. However, since the State Department announced the framework in 2021, little progress has been made in developing the shape and contents of this program. The continued failure to articulate how the Bicentennial Framework will represent a meaningful break from failed policies in the past suggests militarized enforcement may still dominate security relations for years to come. This status quo poses grave risks to both countries. But through the Bicentennial Framework, U.S. policymakers have the potential to make meaningful changes in bilateral security relations by: Rejecting U.S. unilateralist measures against Mexico Developing more robust policies to halt U.S. arms flow to Mexico Reducing the military’s role in enforcement functions and redirecting military entities toward civil action and development Supporting Mexico–led development programs By decreasing the scope of militarization in regional security policies through an appropriately designed Bicentennial Framework, the United States and Mexico can achieve healthier and more balanced relations, and eliminate the risk of a worst-case scenario: unilateral U.S. military intervention next door.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Global South, Borders, Restraint, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, Global Focus, and United States of America

204. Performing Diasporic Resistance: (Re)Claiming the Heritage Language

Author:: Shushan Karapetian
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: “All wars are fought twice, the first time on the battlefield, the second time in memory,” writes Pulitzer Prize-winning author Viet Thanh Nguyen.1 In the landscape of memory, language is the theater of war. Through language, we frame the narratives of our experiences and transmit those narratives for the historical record as individuals and collectives. The chronology and processes so profoundly articulated by Nguyen have merged in the recent decade such that combat on the physical battlefield does not necessarily precede the curation of narratives about the war. They now take place synchronously. Due to advances in digital media and communication technologies, the landscape, strategies, and potential combatants have outgrown geographic, physical, and temporal limitations. Civilians can now participate in military conflicts through digital and participatory warfare enabled by the hyperconnected battlefield of social media platforms. In parallel with actual fighting in combat zones and the official narratives of the states involved in war, new participatory modalities within a global digital battlefield are impacting the representation, perception, participa- tion, and memorialization of conflict. The mobilization of transnational human resources by diasporas can enlarge the scope of civilian participation in warfare, impacting war’s narration, cura- tion, and framing. In this current environment, language becomes the theater of war, not just within the post-combat landscape of memory, but also during combat—in the parallel digital battlefields of modern-day participatory warfare. It is, therefore, important to consider how language is viewed and used during war, particularly the heritage language of diasporan civilians. More specifically, we must assess the extent to which the heritage language is employed as both a symbolic and strategic tool in wartime transnational activism in processes through which diasporic identities are fashioned. In this essay, I examine the role of the Armenian language in the unprecedented transnational mobilization of Armenian communities across the globe during and after the 2020 Nagorno- Karabakh War.2 I argue that transnational actors (re)claimed the Armenian language as an act of resistance in the context of participatory warfare, which not only intensified the existing symbolic range of the Armenian language as a central identity marker, but also introduced a novel instrumental element for many Armenians.
Topic:: Diaspora, Language, Participation, Heritage, and Resistance
Political Geography:: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Global Focus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

205. The Evolution and Ethics of Accountability Sanctions

Author:: Mark Ferullo
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: When Yahya Jammeh seized power in The Gambia in 1994 in a bloodless coup d’état, the young army colonel’s promise to eliminate corruption seemed disin- genuous. At the time, few Gambians could have anticipated how corrupt and cruel his rule would be. His Excellency Sheikh Professor Al-haji Dr. Yahya A.J.J. Jammeh Babili Mansa, as he titled himself, brutalized his country for over two decades. In 2022, The Gambia’s Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Com- mission exposed the extent of his violence, revealing that he commanded a hit squad that crushed dissent through murder, torture, and rape. His claim that he could cure AIDS with herbs might have been dismissed as the delusions of an out-of-touch autocrat were it not for the loss of life this lie caused during the medical trials.1 When the United States placed economic sanctions on Jammeh in 2017, most Gambians had little sympathy for their former leader, and few denied he deserved punishment.2 By then, Jammeh had fled the country, but the United States sanctioned him anyway. Jammeh joined 12 other individuals—including an organ-trafficking surgeon from Pakistan, a Guatemalan Congressman who ordered the killing of a journalist, and a Ukrainian police commander who oversaw the shooting of peaceful protestors in Kyiv during the Revolution of Dignity three years prior—as the first designations under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. “There is a steep price to pay for their mis- deeds,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin at the time.3
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Economy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

206. Science Diplomacy in the Negotiation of International Business Contracts: A Critical Assessment

Author:: Suada Dzogovic, Anita Cucovic, and Armand Krasniqi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study investigates the significance of science diplomacy at the convergence of politics, diplomacy, and science, emphasizing its heightened relevance in contemporary geopolitics and economic development. The aim was to elucidate the role of science diplomacy in optimizing negotiation outcomes concerning international business contracts by examining students’ perceptions of its impacts in such contexts. A theoretical analysis was initially conducted to identify the main themes shaping our questionnaire by employing a comprehensive research strategy that combines quantitative and qualitative methods. Data collection was carried out through a survey using a five-point Likert scale. The study revealed the students’ positive evaluation of science diplomacy, indicating their recognition and appreciation of its utilization in enhancing negotiation outcomes over international business contracts. While political leadership remains crucial in economic negotiations, our findings underscore the significant impact of science diplomacy in promoting international economic relations and facilitating domestic companies’ access to global markets. This research significantly contributes to our understanding of the multifaceted role of science diplomacy in global knowledge dissemination and problem-solving. It elucidates the importance of science diplomacy in international relations and academia, emphasizing its constructive impact on addressing complex challenges.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Communications, Business, Negotiation, Contracts, and Science Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

207. Good Governance and Rule of Law Effect on GDP Growth: Lessons for Emerging Economies

Author:: Esat A. Durguti, Avni Alidemaj, and Anatolijs Krivins
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The overall aim of this article is to explore the effect of governance parameters on gross domestic product (GDP) in the 15 countries of the European Union (EU15) as well as the 6 countries of Southeast Europe (SEE6). The research employed the dynamic methodology generalized methods of moments (GMM) to explore the data gathered from the World Bank and the Global Economy database stretching 2000 - 2022, correspondingly 2008 - 2022. Our analyzed result for EU15 confirms that regulatory quality (RQ), government effectiveness (GE), and rule of law (RL) positively influence GDP; instead, control of corruption (CC) negatively influences GDP. The results obtained for SEE6 reveal that GE and CC positively influence GDP, but instead, the RL negatively influences GDP. Additionally, RQ in the SEE6 instance has shown an insignificant influence on GDP. Unfortunately, the study could not cover every country in both panel groups because of data limitations. Regarding the study’s conclusions, increased dedication to applying and undertaking reform measures for the key governance indicators for SEE6 countries would be helpful. These insights may raise the need to create specific mechanisms for the RL and CC. Compared to other research, the novelty and originality of the present research lies in the fact that it used panel data via the dynamic GMM approach to explore the role of improving government quality metrics in GDP.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, GDP, Economic Growth, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

208. Smart Operations: Rethinking Operational Art To Effectively Protect Civilians

Author:: Dan Kuwali
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The changing nature of armed conflict, where most of the victims are civilians accompanied by the devastation of civilian objects, requires rethinking the elements of operational art, which are adversary-centric at the expense of noncombatants who are ubiquitous in present-day battlefields. Respect for, and compliance with International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is a panacea to violations against noncombatants in contemporary warfare. The principle of distinction is a sine qua non for the protection of civilians. The rules of targeting are at the heart of IHL, while the principle of distinction is the keystone in targeting guided by rules of engagement as the practical application of the legal constraints to combat. As such, the cognitive skills of the military in IHL are vital to the prevention of civilian death, mitigate incidental injury, and limit collateral damage in hostilities. This paper addresses the issue of how to mitigate civilian harm in contemporary hostilities through discourse analysis and a desktop survey. It is noted that the failure to master IHL at the operational and strategic levels in professional military education—as evidenced by doctrinal gaps in the application of operational art and military decision-making processes—renders the integration of humanitarian norms utopian. The oversight also reinforces the reticence to mitigate civilian harm in modern-day conflicts. This paper, inspired by prospect theory in military decision-making processes, posits that effective civilian protection requires smart operations involving a framework for enhanced risk analysis and mitigation of civilian harm in military decision-making processes. In executing smart operations, belligerents demonstrate effective integration of IHL into strategy, operations, and tactics, thereby enhancing prospects of return to peace.
Topic:: Civilians, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Armed Conflict, Decision-Making, Protection, and Risk Analysis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

209. Designing a New Paradigm in Global Trade

Author:: Ryan Mulholland, Trevor Sutton, and Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: How a successful Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum could function while delivering maximum benefits to workers and the environment.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Sustainability, and Metals
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

210. Centering Access, Quality, and Equity and Justice in a Beyond 30×30 Ocean Strategy

Author:: Angelo Villagomez, Jasmin Graham, and Alia Hidayat
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Biden administration should deliver an ocean conservation framework that includes new metrics for success.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Oceans and Seas, Joe Biden, and Equity
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

211. The Road to Baku, Belém, and Beyond: A 5-Year Outlook for U.S. International Climate Finance

Author:: Courtney Federico
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The United States must work to establish an ambitious new international climate finance goal this year at COP29 as part of a five-year plan to scale resources to combat the climate crisis.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

212. 3 International Climate Priorities for 2024

Author:: Anne Christianson, Trevor Sutton, and Frances Colon
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As President Joe Biden’s first term draws to a close, his administration must deliver on three international climate policies to catalyze a 21st-century clean energy economy and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Economy, Inflation, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

213. Extreme Heat Is More Dangerous for Workers Every Year

Author:: Jill Rosenthal, Rosa Barrientos-Ferrer, and Kate Petosa
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Federal and state governments should step up efforts—including adopting heat standards—to address increased on-the-job heat-related injury, illness, and death.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Labor Issues, Regulation, and Heat Waves
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

214. Protecting Children From Extreme Heat Is Critical for Their Health, Learning, and Development

Author:: Allie Schneider, Paige Shoemaker DeMio, and Hailey Gibbs
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As climate change intensifies extreme heat around the globe, policymakers must take steps to develop heat standards for children and support infrastructure improvements to ensure schools, child care centers, and communities are safe and healthy places for children.
Topic:: Climate Change, Education, Children, Child Development, and Heat
Political Geography:: Global Focus

215. The Price of War

Author:: Jonathan Federle, André Meier, Steffen Müller, Willi Mutschler, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In an integrated global economy, the economic fallout of war is not confined to the country where the conflict is fought but spills over to other countries. We study the economic effects of large interstate wars using a new data set spanning 150 years of data for more than 60 countries. War on a country’s territory typically leads to an output decline of 30 percent and a 15 percentage point increase in inflation. We find large negative effects also for countries that are geographically close to the war site, irrespective of their participation in the war. Output in neighboring countries falls by more than 10 percent over 5 years, and inflation rises by 5 percentage points on average. Negative spillovers decline with geographic distance and increase in the degree of trade integration with the war site. For very distant countries, output spillovers can turn positive so that wars create winners and losers in the international economy. We rationalize these findings in an international business cycle model, calibrated to capture key features of the data. As the war destroys capital in the war site and productivity falls, trade with nearby economies decreases, generating an endogenous supply-side contraction abroad.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, War, Business, Geoeconomics, Russia-Ukraine War, Spillovers, and Supply Shocks
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus

216. New Trade Models, Same Old Emissions?

Author:: Robin Sogalla, Joschka Wanner, and Yuta Watabe
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper investigates the elusive role of productivity heterogeneity in new trade models in the trade and environment nexus. We contrast the Eaton-Kortum and the Melitz models with firm heterogeneity to the Armington and Krugman models without heterogeneity. We show that if firms have a constant emission share in terms of sales — as they do in a wide range of trade and environment models — the three models’ emission predictions exactly coincide. Conversely, if firms have a constant emission intensity per quantity — a prominent alternative in the literature — the emission equivalence between the three models breaks. We provide a generalization that nests both constant emission shares in sales and constant quantity emission intensities as special cases. We calibrate the models to global production and trade data and use German firm-level data to estimate the key elasticity of how emission intensity changes with productivity. Our multi-industry quantification demonstrates that the role of firm heterogeneity depends both on the model and the estimated parameters. Moving from the Armington model to the EK model increases the emissions effect on trade, while moving from the Krugman model to the Melitz model decreases the emission effects on trade.
Topic:: Climate Change, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Carbon Emissions, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

217. Build Carbon Removal Reserve to Secure Future of EU Emissions Trading

Author:: Wilfried Rickels, Mathias Fridahl, Roland Rothenstein, and Felix Schenuit
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. • Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. • This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. • Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. • To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating resultbased carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. • This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden’s or Denmark’s, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. • An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Carbon Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

218. Sovereign Haircuts: 200 Years of Creditor Losses

Author:: Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 percent. The data also reveal that “serial restructurings”, meaning two or more debt exchanges in the same default spell, are on the rise. To account for this trend toward serial renegotiation, we introduce the “Bulow-Rogoff haircut” – a cumulative measure that captures the combined creditor loss across all restructurings during a single debt crisis. Using this measure, we show that longer debt crises deliver larger haircuts and that interim restructurings provide limited debt relief. We further examine past predictors of the size of haircuts and identify “rules of thumb” applicable to future defaults. Poorer countries, first-time debt issuers, and those that borrowed heavily from external creditors all record significantly higher haircuts in case of a default. Geopolitical shocks – such as wars, revolutions, or the break-up of empires – deliver the deepest haircuts. Sovereign debt investment disasters are often linked to (geo-)political disasters.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, Credit, Sovereign Debt, Emerging Economies, Debt Restructuring, and Sovereign Default
Political Geography:: Global Focus

219. International investment income: patterns, drivers, and heterogeneous sensitivities

Author:: Giovanni Donato and Cedric Tille
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Financial globalization has led to a large increase in international asset holdings. While the rise of associated dividend and interest flows has until now been muted by the decreasing trend in interest rates, this pattern could change, leading to a larger role of investment income flows in the balance of payments. We use a broad sample of countries to document the heterogeneous evolution of the various components of investment income flows, with a rising role of FDI and equity income, especially in advanced economies. We then assess the impact of various variables on yields with a panel analysis. Various drivers have highly heterogeneous effects across investment categories and country groups, often impacting the yields on both assets and liabilities. This translates into substantial heterogeneity in the response of countries’ income balance, due to different compositions of asset and liabilities. This heterogeneity is amplified if we consider country-specific estimates in complement to the panel ones. Focusing on the impact of changes in interest rates, we find that higher rates only had a limited impact in the 2013 taper tantrum, investment income balances are likely to benefit from higher US rates in the current phase of higher rates, with offsetting effects of higher domestic rates.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, Investment, Interest Rates, and Financial Integration
Political Geography:: Global Focus

220. Beyond Borders: Do Gender Norms and Institutions Affect Female Businesses?

Author:: Holger Görg and Ina C. Jäkel
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: In this paper, we investigate whether gender norms and institutions act as a constraint to the performance of female businesses. We exploit novel and unique micro data on start-ups in Denmark, which we combine with information on individual-level characteristics of the entrepreneur as main decision maker of the firm. We overcome the challenge of disentangling norms and institutional biases against women from other constraints and hurdles that female businesses might face by exploiting detailed trade data. In this trade context, we study the relative performance of firms across markets with varying institutions, while controlling for other factors that affect female businesses uniformly across all markets. We provide evidence that gender inequality and institutional biases against women in trade partner countries play an important role in explaining gender differences in export and import behaviour. We also perform an event study of a concrete policy change in a destination market – the introduction of quotas for the share of females on the boards of directors in Norway – and how it has affected the gender gap in trade participation.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Inequality, Startup, Gender, Opportunity, and Firm Internationalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

221. When the Exception Overtakes the Rule: COVID-19, Security Exemption Clauses, and International Investment Agreements

Author:: Kayla Maria Rolland
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: In the trade and investment law regimes built in the post-war period, “security exemption clauses” were included within trade and investment agreements as a safety valve, permitting States to deviate from their commitments in the event that their security interests were implicated. Initially, these clauses were understood to be narrowly limited to instances of war and interstate conflict. With the rise of the national security state in the decades since, however, the concept of security interests has ballooned to encompass an ever-growing set of issues, with some fearing that the rules may become irrelevant. This has been particularly facilitated through “third generation” security exemption clauses and their inclusion of self-judging language. The COVID-19 pandemic in particular adds a new dimension to this phenomenon. As a case study analysis of the text of the Chile-Hong Kong, China SAR bilateral investment treaty (BIT) will demonstrate, it may be feasible for States to invoke security exemption clauses to justify measures taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in some contexts, particularly with third generation, self-judging security exemption clauses. The expanding notions of security exemption clauses have significant implications for the investor-State dispute system as a whole.
Topic:: Security, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, COVID-19, and International Investment Agreements
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

222. A New Vision for Peace Operations

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Over the past eight decades, United Nations (UN) peace operations have demonstrated themselves to be valuable tools for prevention, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding. But they have also struggled to meet the expectations of their varied audiences, including the Security Council, host governments, and local populations. Many of these struggles stem from the supply-driven approach to how missions have been planned and deployed, which drives many of the shortcomings that are evident in missions today, such as sprawling mandates that are not focused on the political solutions necessary to resolve conflict, templated approaches to mission design and mandate implementation, and friction with other UN entities and organizations. Although these shortcomings are present throughout the mission lifecycle, they are particularly evident now with ongoing drawdowns and transitions in Mali, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and as countries increasingly turn to alternatives to UN peace operations, such as peace enforcement and counterterrorism operations undertaken by regional organizations and ad hoc coalitions, despite their poor track record at fostering lasting peace. A new approach to peace operations is necessary to overcome these shortcomings, one that acknowledges that UN peace operations always operate in an environment alongside other actors and that no single entity or organization has the capacity and resources to tackle the full range of activities required to help a country towards sustaining peace. In advocating for a shift in the planning, design, and management of UN peace operations, this report provides ideas for how to implement recommendations from A New Agenda for Peace as well as considerations for the upcoming 2025 peacebuilding architecture review (PBAR). Elements of this approach can already be put into practice as part of transition contexts, where the Peacebuilding Commission and the General Assembly can play an important role in considering follow-on arrangements and how to provide countries with tailored packages of support to national prevention strategies. By allowing peace operations to better meet the expectations of key stakeholders such as the host government and Security Council while reducing friction with the UN country team and other actors, this new approach can help overcome the current crisis of confidence in UN peace operations and ensure that the UN can continue to play an important role in the maintenance of international peace and security in a time of increasing geopolitical contestation.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

223. Tipping the Scales: Towards a People-Centered Justice Approach to Resilience in Fragile Contexts

Author:: Jonathan Papoulidis, Swati Mehta, and Nate Edwards
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Once synonymous with food security, resilience has undergone a quiet revolution over the last decade, shifting from a sector silo to an emerging paradigm of engagement for donors and multilateral institutions. This paper traces the evolution and importance of this emerging resilience paradigm and the simultaneous rise of people-centered approaches to justice (PCJ). It argues that PCJ is a vital but missing element of the new resilience paradigm and key to its success. The paper proposes a conceptual framework for a PCJ approach to resilience and offers a few illustrative examples of how the framework might be applied to fragile contexts and beyond. The examples used are not prescriptive, but rather intend to offer grounding to what is otherwise a largely conceptual framework. The application of the framework will require additional resources, on-the-ground research, and comprehensive analysis. Ultimately, the paper argues that humanitarians, peacebuilders, resilience experts, and justice actors must work together to tip the scales of justice in favor of people’s resilience in fragile contexts.
Topic:: Displacement, Justice, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

224. The Pact of the Future—Financing Issues

Author:: Betty N. Wainaina and Sarah Cliffe
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Submissions for the Summit of the Future were requested at the end of 2023. CIC developed and submitted a short input on financing and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This note lays out our rationale and narrative concerning financing for development. Why is financing such a contentious issue? In part, this is because the events of the last few years have increased global financing needs—for pandemic recovery and preparedness, for climate, for social protection and economic development to overcome price shocks and other international pressures. In addition, global financing plays a role in escalating grievances about double standards. Double standards are, of course, a broader argument, from failure to coordinate COVID-19 vaccines to questions over different applications of international humanitarian and human rights law in Ukraine versus Palestine. Financing plays a role here, however, because of obvious inequities following COVID-19. HICs spent 24 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on stimulus and social protection programs in the first year of COVID-19; MICS could spend only 6 percent and LICS only 2 percent. Debt distress has risen dramatically in the last four years; 25 percent of emerging market countries are at high risk of default, while among low-income countries 60 percent are either at high risk of default or already in default. Some of the reasons financing paragraphs became contentious in recent resolutions are more process-based. Using the SDG Summit Political Declaration as an example, the draft text was too detailed in some respects and laid open challenges as to what should be decided in different governance structures. Some areas were insufficiently tailored to the current state of debate at the IFIs, G20, and other international platforms, risking being out of date at the time of publication. In some aspects, they were not specific enough, missing an opportunity to bring new ideas to the table. Last, they did not focus sufficiently on the core comparative advantage of a UN platform for these discussions, which is to link the achievement of the SDGs, global political stability, and peaceful international relations with financing.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

225. Taking Stock of 2023 and Looking Ahead to 2024: How to Combine Realism with Hope?

Author:: Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The final months of 2023 were extraordinarily grim. The world had already weathered four years of repeated crises. The horrific attack on Israel carried out by Hamas on October 7 has resulted in a response by Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) that has ignored all norms of international humanitarian and human rights law. This has resulted in an estimated 20,000+ deaths to date. CIC’s annual 2023-2024 analysis outlines takeaways from the previous year and key trends for the new year. Notably, it delves into major global conflicts impacting international peace, lesser-known trends, and economic disparities. Additionally, it explores prospects for 2024, including potential peace breakthroughs and advancements in revamping outdated multilateral approaches. In Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel, and the appalling suffering caused by Israel’s attempt to wipe out Hamas in Gaza, it is evident that double standards have been applied in matters concerning human rights and that, despite the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, societies still struggle to recognize the common humanity of their adversaries. At the same time, crises in other regions and long-term challenges, such as debt and socioeconomic pressures, struggle to garner any attention. This has spurred visceral political responses in many countries, turning inward and perhaps “sleepwalking” toward greater global catastrophe, as we have seen in the past in less interconnected times.
Topic:: Conflict, Peacebuilding, Russia-Ukraine War, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

226. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence at the World Bank—Recommendations for the Spring Meetings

Author:: Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Friedman, Betty N. Wainaina, and Céline Monnier
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The World Bank Governors meet at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-World Bank (WB) Spring Meetings this week to discuss progress on the World Bank’s Evolution Roadmap. Much of this discussion will focus on financing, including commitments to the hybrid facility and the prospects for the upcoming International Development Association (IDA) replenishment. Equally important, however, is whether and how the World Bank continues to play a leading role in international support to countries affected by fragility, violence, and conflict. In this piece, the authors provide recommendations for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings 2024, considering how the World Bank Evolution Roadmap addresses conflict, fragility, and violence; and the importance for the Bank to maintain its financial allocations to prevention in the upcoming International Development Association round of financing.
Topic:: Development, World Bank, Conflict, Violence, IMF, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

227. The Inequalities-Environment Nexus: Tools for Catalyzing a Just Transition

Author:: Roshni Menon and Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Transitioning to a green economy is imperative for all countries, and many have already started their journeys. The process of planning and executing a transition presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to ensure the movement toward an environmentally sustainable and climate-safe future that benefits society as a whole and occurs in a just and equitable manner. A transition towards a greener economy is fundamentally also a matter of justice: it can save lives and improve livelihoods, as well as address historic injustices. Importantly, a just green transition can address people’s fears and uncertainties about potential negative effects on economies, livelihoods, and the environment, thus preventing backlash to the coming change and instead, widening political support. As part of collaborative effort between the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies hosted at the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University (NYU), the International Climate Initiative for a Just Energy Transition (IKI JET) by the German Agency of International Cooperation (GIZ), and the Ministry of Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia (BAPPENAS), this report was developed in preparation for a workshop on just green transition administered in Bogor, Indonesia on November 2–3, 2023. This resource covers the following topics: Conceptual definition, sector affected, opportunities, and challenges for just transition. Fundamental pillars in catalyzing a just transition, including distributional impact assessments (DIA), an intersectionality-based policy analysis (IBPA) framework, and social dialogue.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, Green Transition, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

228. Beyond Access: Refugees’ Rights and Justice at Work

Author:: Emily E. Arnold-Fernández
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Work plays a central role in the lives of refugees. When work is just, it offers economic power, personal agency, and often a sense of meaning, purpose, or even identity. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognize the importance of justice in relation to work. Goals 8 (decent work and inclusive economic growth) and 10 (reduced inequality) are only possible when work is just. Too often today, however, refugees have access to work only in conditions of grave injustice. Wage theft, sexual assault, and other workplace violations are common. Restrictions on refugees’ access to authorized work push them into informal, unregulated employment where justice is inaccessible. These problems show us that, to achieve SDGs 8 and 10 for refugees, we must also achieve SDG16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all. This paper aims to lay a common foundation for solutions to the justice problems refugees face in the labor market and also supports the thesis that ensuring access to justice in the workplace for refugees can facilitate mutual gains, uphold human rights, and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Agenda.
Topic:: Refugees, Displacement, Justice, Humanitarian Crisis, and Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

229. Strengthening Violence Prevention at the UN: 11 Overlooked Facts

Author:: Céline Monnier and Joanne Richards
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: This policy brief argues that UN and member state efforts to prevent violence are often ineffective because why violence occurs is not well understood. The authors highlight the critical role of risk and protective factors in violence prevention work and outline 11 facts that are frequently overlooked when policymakers attempt to stop violence from occurring. To increase the effectiveness of prevention efforts, policymakers should be aware of these critical points and incorporate risk and protective factor analysis into existing UN diagnostic tools and inter-governmental processes.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacebuilding, and Violence Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

230. The Private Sector as a Partner and an Agent for Violence Reduction

Author:: Marta Bautista Forcada, Luisa Portugal, and Bojan Francuz
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The pivotal role of the private sector in society extends beyond economic contributions. It also influences social dynamics and communities’ well-being and cohesion. This report delves into the complex and multifaceted relationship between business entities and local initiatives aimed at preventing and reducing the most serious forms of violence in communities. It presents an analysis of ongoing initiatives, with a focus on exploring the existing interactions and untapped potential of private sector actors in fostering safer environments, which in turn contributes to ongoing global mobilization efforts1 to reduce levels of violence by at least 50 percent by the year 2030. Historically, the responsibility of maintaining communal peace and security has been primarily shouldered by governmental and public institutions. However, the evolving societal landscape has ushered in a paradigm shift, recognizing the private sector’s important influence and responsibility in this domain. Most businesses, from small enterprises to multinational corporations, inherently seek stable environments for their operations, which then aligns their interests with the broader societal goals of violence prevention and community safety. This research examines the varied spectrum of private sector entities, delineating their roles and impacts within different local contexts, with a focus on urban areas. It underscores the dual nature of businesses as both beneficiaries of peaceful environments and potential contributors to enhancing the risks of violence in such environments. Through a series of case studies, the report is primarily concerned with showcasing successful collaborations between the private sector and community initiatives aimed at violence reduction, with a focus on those occurring in urban contexts. These examples serve to illustrate how businesses can act as catalysts for positive change, employing their resources, influence, and networks to foster a culture of peace and stability. Furthermore, the piece proposes a framework for viewing the private sector as a partner with a vested interest in violence reduction efforts and the halving global violence agenda, as well as recommendations for engagement and interventions. In doing so, this report aims to streamline collaboration between businesses, governmental bodies, and civil society, ensuring a unified and comprehensive approach to addressing the root causes of multiple forms of violence and enhancing community resilience. This report reevaluates the roles of business in society and underlines the need to further invest in examining the private sector impact on violence reduction. It advocates for an integrated approach where the private sector is recognized as a crucial ally in the quest for peace and security, aligning economic objectives with societal needs. By harnessing the private sector’s potential as a partner in violence reduction, the research contributes to the broader discourse on achieving sustainable peace and advancing the United Nations (UN)’s global development agenda—the 2030 Agenda—for a more peaceful, inclusive, and just world.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Partnerships, Violence, Private Sector, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

231. Beyond the Battlefields: Practical Strategies to Halving Global Violence in Our Homes, Streets, and Communities

Author:: Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: In the report, “Beyond the Battlefields: Practical Strategies to Halving Global Violence in Our Homes, Streets, and Communities,” the Halving Global Violence Task Force at NYU’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC) presents a comprehensive roadmap to cut global violence by half. This pivotal analysis culminates a three-year collaborative effort involving international policymakers, distinguished researchers, field experts, and activists. The report emphasizes that halving global violence is not only a visionary goal but an actionable imperative. It outlines practical, evidence-based strategies to tackle violence across all spheres of society, underscoring the potential for significant economic and societal benefits. By adopting these strategies, the global community can forge a safer, more equitable society for future generations. Key highlights reveal that most violence occurs outside conflict zones, affecting diverse demographics worldwide. It also provides detailed strategies that have proven successful in various global cities, emphasizing low-cost, innovative solutions that can radically reduce violence. It is an essential read for leaders and policymakers committed to fostering international peace and security.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

232. From Rhetoric to Reality: Uncovering Strategic Division and the Linkages Between Polarization and Inequality

Author:: Raquel Jesse
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: Amid the economic, climate, and health crises, in addition to deteriorating socio-economic conditions and escalating conflicts in many contexts around the world, societies are facing a new major threat: fragmentation. That is, many societies are experiencing a mixture of increased divisions at various levels of society characterized by worsening polarization, not merely along partisan lines, but across various groups. In addition, the prevalence of hate speech and violence, intermixed with a heightened sense of discord, the resurgence of marginalization for some communities, and widespread insecurity, distrust, and hardship, has resulted in a fracturing both at the political and community level. In a time when we need to work together more than ever, the era of soundbites, disinformation, and reactionary rhetoric makes thoughtful debate and dialogue, consensus-building, and coalition formation increasingly difficult. This paper aims to disentangle the threads of escalating global fragmentation, the dynamics fueling it, and emerging solutions to counteract its adverse effects. This work stems from listening to the recurring concerns and challenges from policymakers and civil society about navigating the emerging backlash, division, and disinformation when pursuing inclusive policy agendas. Whether it is to recognize Indigenous communities in legal documents, plans to implement a transformative climate agenda, policies to advance gender equality, increase public investments, or provide safe passage and resources to people on the move—divisive narratives are derailing these efforts. This report attempts to understand why and how different communities, actors, and policy agendas are being undermined in similar ways. Although these are difficult times, numerous solutions, actionable strategies, and dedicated communities are addressing these challenges—if we know where to look. We aim to highlight successful examples of tackling disinformation, bridging divides, and driving the desperately needed change. The report is organized as such: Navigating the Twin Storms of Inequality and Polarization Unveiling Strategic Division: The Power Play Behind Societal Divides Mapping Vulnerabilities: Factors Fueling Susceptibility to Strategic Division Tackling Division at its Core: Comprehensive Policy Interventions While the mechanisms and solutions to societal fragmentation are complex, there is comfort in the understanding that this challenge is not unique to any single nation or community but is shared. By shedding light on these issues, we can pave the way for solutions—together. As demonstrated in this report and the dialogues that preceded it, numerous individuals, communities, and initiatives are dedicated to innovating and meeting the challenges of our time, bridging divides with the conviction that our strength is amplified when we stand together. We hope this paper can contribute in some small way to these efforts.
Topic:: Inequality, Polarization, Fragmentation, and Rhetoric
Political Geography:: Global Focus

233. United Nations and World Bank Collaboration in Security and Justice Sectors: Linkages to Development

Author:: Sarah Cliffe, Betty N. Wainaina, and Natacha Meden
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The links between security and development cannot be said enough. Effective and accountable security and justice institutions are essential to anchor peace and accelerate development but only if these institutions are people-centered, inclusive, accountable, and based on respect for human rights and the rule of law. Over 600 million people are living in countries that are considered politically estranged today. Many of these countries have faced and continue to face security challenges that have been significant drivers of grievance and contestation. Addressing governance challenges in the security and justice sectors in such circumstances is critical at a moment when all the remaining United Nations (UN) multidimensional peacekeeping operations have been requested to initiate or intensify transition planning. These transitions are taking place in countries and regions where the nature of violence and conflict is changing—becoming more protracted, involving transnational non-state armed actors, amid geo-political contestations and proxy wars. This study highlights that despite the long history of UN and World Bank engagement in the security and justice sectors, there has not been much strategic collaboration. Indeed, while there have been a few very compelling examples of joint work such as public expenditure reviews in the security and justice sectors in Liberia or Somalia, joint diagnostics and knowledge products as well as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) operations in a few countries, or strategically sequenced mutually reinforcing interventions for example in the case of The Gambia, these instances are the exception rather than the norm. The study finds that there is a lot more that can be done to promote a more systematic and strategic partnership between the UN and the World Bank in security and justice sector engagements. This could range from information sharing, joint analysis where necessary, reinforcing each other’s messaging, and the coordination and harmonization of efforts to leverage respective convening platforms and relationships. Strengthening this work is a challenge that would require engagement from the most senior UN and World Bank leadership as it would involve a cultural transformation and fresh understanding of organizational and staff incentives. Included in this report are eight joint and individual recommendations ranging from the cultural or strategic, to the more technical for policymakers across both multilateral institutions to implement and bring into their organizations.
Topic:: Security, Development, United Nations, World Bank, and Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

234. The Liquidity Crisis at the United Nations: How We Got Here and Possible Ways Out

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The United Nations (UN) is suffering from an acute liquidity crisis because its member states have not been paying the assessed contributions required to finance the budgets they have approved. A major part of the problem is the fact that the United States does not pay in full or on time. However, late payments in recent years by China and the closure of several large peacekeeping operations are exacerbating the liquidity challenges. The Secretary-General has proposed several measures to improve the financial position of the organization, but these are stopgap measures at best. The ongoing financial difficulties can only be resolved by member states paying in full and on time but getting there requires understanding the policy decisions and member state dynamics that led us to the current situation and developing recommendations designed around the constraints of the intergovernmental process.
Topic:: United Nations, Budget, Finance, and Liquidity
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

235. Halving Global Violence Starts in Our Homes and Streets

Author:: Luisa Portugal
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: In recent years, the world has seen a sharp increase in the number and intensity of armed conflicts globally. From 2020 to 2022, conflict deaths increased nearly fourfold, reaching numbers unseen since the end of the Cold War. The impacts of these wars do not stop at the battlefield; they undermine and destroy social contracts between people and states, slow and even reverse economic participation, and shatter communal bonds—leading to further injuries and deaths. Despite their impact, the multilateral ecosystem faces significant challenges and barriers in offering solutions or relief to these conflicts. Adding to the damage caused by armed conflicts is the widespread and devastating cost of criminal and interpersonal violence. It is crucial to shift the conversation on violence reduction and prevention into the development space. As member states decide during September 2024 at the Summit of Future what the Pact for the Future will look like, they should heed this call and focus on finding practical solutions for the violence that most often impacts people’s everyday lives. This new analysis, part of the CIC Perspectives series, examines the following: A development approach to reducing violence; What works to prevent and reduce violence; Four takeaways for the Summit of the Future.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Society
Political Geography:: Global Focus

236. Health Diplomacy as an Aspect of International Humanitarian Cooperation

Author:: Nina Bychkova
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: The modern world faces an increasing number of natural, biogenic, and anthropogenic challenges and threats. Addressing most of these challenges requires the mobilization of efforts from multiple states and, in some cases, the entire global community, necessitating constant dialogue to coordinate activities. Consequently, modern international relations are characterized by structural complexity, a diversity of ongoing processes, and varying degrees of involvement from a wide range of actors. As the system of international relations becomes more complex, the scope of issues that states must address in their foreign policy activities also expands. Moreover, since the second half of the 20th century, intergovernmental and nongovernmental international organizations have become an important part of international relations, significantly shaping the agenda and development trends. In addition to international organizations, civil society institutions are gaining increasing influence, also affecting the formation of the state’s foreign policy and the international agenda. International humanitarian cooperation is becoming increasingly important as international relations become more complex. This concept is interpreted differently in Russia and other countries. In Russian academic literature, two approaches are typically distinguished. The narrow approach, where humanitarian cooperation is practically equated with humanitarian aid, is characteristic of the foreign interpretation of the concept. In Russian official documents and academic works, international humanitarian cooperation is understood as the aggregate of interactions among state, supranational, and nonstate actors in the fields of human rights protection, science, education, culture, health care, sports, tourism, humanitarian aid, and others.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Humanitarian Cooperation, Health Diplomacy, Medical Diplomacy, and Vaccine Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

237. Challenges of Global Health Governance Amid the Growing Use of Force in the World

Author:: Alina Chesnokova
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: Natural disasters and armed conflicts have accompanied human existence throughout history, always leading to spikes in mortality and morbidity. However, in recent years, the scale and scope of these events have noticeably increased. Since the 1990s, such events annually affect around 217 million people, forcing them to live under conditions of extreme instability and humanitarian crises.1 Despite this, in recent decades, global health management measures amid humanitarian crises caused by armed conflicts have not led to increased equity and quality in the provision of medical care and services in affected areas. Armed conflicts have a profound impact on the architecture of health governance. Military actions often result in the destruction of health care infrastructure, including hospitals, clinics, and essential medical supply chains. Such widespread disruptions hinder the delivery of basic medical services, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Largescale population displacement is the most common consequence of armed conflicts, resulting in the creation of refugee camps and pressure on host communities. This situation exacerbates health issues, as overcrowding promotes the spread of infectious diseases, compounded by the concurrent collapse of health care systems. Conflicts restrict or complicate the provision of humanitarian aid, impeding the delivery of essential medical supplies, vaccines, and medical personnel to affected areas. The psychological consequences of armed conflict always extend beyond physical injuries, with mental health issues becoming increasingly common.
Topic:: Governance, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, WHO, Global Health, and Disease
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Syria, and Global Focus

238. Global Values Competition: From Post-Truth to Post-Reality

Author:: Oleg Dmitriyev and Dmitry Yevstafyev
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: At the Primakov Readings in November 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed specific aspects of the formation of a polycentric world. He talked in part about the tools by which the US has so far managed to maintain relative, albeit fictitious, unity and present the collective West as a partially consolidated force. By the end of 2023, the cohesion of the coalition formed based on maintaining the stability of the “rules-based world,” which in essence aims to preserve the dominance of the collective West as the global regulator, had transformed following a series of extremely painful political and military-political conflicts. In a state of relative “calm,” the US had managed to maintain the stability of the system. But when mainstream Western media and think tanks started talking about the need for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at the end of December 2023, the consistency of the conflict coverage by leading global media began to break down.1 Postindustrial capitalism might well be called “capitalism of sensory consumption.” The logic of its development dictated the primacy of communication (marketing, visual, sociocoercive) and control over socioinformational mechanisms. The transition in international politics from geoeconomic America-centrism to a model of “values competition” (with permissible chaotization in certain geopolitical spaces) only amplifies these trends. But what technologies will be used to wage this competition? The US assumed that controlling the information society and the most important global communication channels gave them a clear systemic advantage in the values competition. That assumption proved a bit flawed, if you look at trends from 2022 to 2024, when the sanctions regime against the Russian Federation seemed ineffective in many parts of the world, including Europe.2 This attests to a qualitative change in the structure of the global information society. The nature of these changes still needs to be analyzed and understood. But at this stage we can assert that the management of political and geoeconomic processes relies on the widespread use of technologies of “post-truth” that is gradually morphing into “post-reality.” Emerging competing post-realities are becoming the real political-ideological basis for making medium-term significant political decisions.
Topic:: Capitalism, Values, International Order, Geoeconomics, Competition, Post-Truth, and Post-Reality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

239. 2014-2024: A Decade of Sanctions and the Strengthening of Russia’s Financial Sovereignty

Author:: Alexander Turov
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: The summer of 2024 has been extraordinarily hot. Climatologists say the average temperature may exceed median values for the entire history of observations. But it is already clear that the political barometer has reached its peak this year, which is certainly having a direct impact on international relations and the global economy as a whole. The past months following the triumphant conclusion of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which marked the beginning of the collapse of the neocolonial system of global economic relations, and subsequent significant events in international affairs have confirmed Russia’s clear course toward financial sovereignty. For more than a decade now, that course has been pursued by the West, which has become unfriendly in a fairly short historical period. Yet in previous periods of our country’s history – the building of socialism, communism, advanced socialism, perestroika, and finally liberalism – the West actively used at an affordable price our fuel and raw material resources, which formed the basis of the Western economy and consumer society. The scientific achievements of our scholars also contributed to common global progress, as evidenced by the numerous Nobel Prizes they were awarded. So why, after three decades of euphoria based on the development of the market economy and the liberalization of everything, both necessary and unnecessary, has Russia once again been fenced off by NATO’s walls and subjected to economic sanctions, which essentially amount to an economic blockade? This happened before, during the early days of the young Soviet Republic, but the blockade lasted less than a hundred days – from October 1919 to January 1920 – because the level of understanding of global economic ties that formed the basis of politics and diplomacy among the old Western leaders was far higher than it is among today’s leaders, who seem more inclined to discuss issues concerning minority orientations than to concern themselves with the well-being and pressing needs of the majority.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Sanctions, Economy, and Financial Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

240. Meaningful Partners: Opportunities for Collaboration between Women, Peace and Security, and Small Arms Control at the National Level

Author:: Callum Watson
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: National actors working in small arms control and on women, peace, and security (WPS) share commitments to reduce suffering, maintain peace and security, and contribute to the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, while these cross references are increasingly commonplace in the international policy framework, this does not often translate into harmonized references in national action plans (NAPs) on WPS and small arms control. Meaningful Partners: Opportunities for Collaboration between Women, Peace and Security, and Small Arms Control at the National Level—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Gender-Responsive Arms Control project—identifies potential avenues for future work to better harmonize efforts related to WPS and small arms control, and improve the effectiveness of both policy areas in achieving their objectives.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Women, Sustainable Development Goals, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

241. El final de la Pax americana. La evolución del sistema internacional. Los nuevos equilibrios

Author:: Adela M. Alija
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En este artículo, partimos de la idea de que no estamos todavía ante una redefinición de del orden mundial creado tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial y la Guerra Fría. Ahora bien, nos encontramos ante un cuestionamiento profundo del sistema y ante desplazamientos en los equilibrios de poder que parecen mostrarnos el final de una era. El orden (o desorden) mundial del siglo XXI en el que nos encontramos está marcado por elementos que introducen incertidumbre e inseguridad. Recesión económica, pandemia, guerra, crisis diversas, desaceleración de la globalización (o quizá desglobalización) … hacen un mundo complejo y desordenado. Sobre todos estos elementos mencionados, la guerra en Ucrania representa un momento decisivo para la construcción de un nuevo orden mundial. El concepto de Pax Americana es discutible y ha sido discutido ampliamente, como analizaremos en nuestro artículo. Si consideramos el término desde la perspectiva de la supremacía de Estados Unidos en el sistema internacional, no cabe duda de que el orden mundial del siglo XX ha estado marcado por el poder estadounidense. El final de la pax americana daría lugar a un nuevo orden mundial, el orden liberal internacional habría finalizado y un nuevo orden “postoccidental” se estaría construyendo. Pero, ¿qué clase de orden? La sustitución de la pax americana y, por lo tanto, del orden liberal occidental, es todavía imprecisa. En conclusión, los objetivos de nuestro artículo son: analizar la evolución del concepto de Pax americana, entendido como símbolo de la hegemonía de Estados Unidos y Occidente en el mundo, analizar el contexto de crisis de dicha hegemonía y, por último, analizar las distintas vías de cambio del sistema internacional, partiendo de la base de que está en una fase de transición y transformación todavía incierta.
Topic:: Geopolitics, International Order, Pax Americana, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

242. Repercussions of the end of the war in Ukraine for the United Nations Security System

Author:: Carlos Espaliú Berdud
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an extraordinarily serious violation of the prohibition on the use of force that was embodied in Article 2.4 of the UN Charter after a long historical process. The fact that it was perpetrated by one of the permanent members of the Security Council implies a breach of the consensus among the Allies in World War II that gave rise to the United Nations and the system of international peacekeeping and security that it brought with it. The final outcome of the war in Ukraine may mean that the blow to the system of collective security envisaged in the Charter may be fatal, should the outcome be favourable to Russian interests, or that, despite being badly damaged, it may continue to exist, should the final outcome of the conflict be favourable to Ukrainian interests.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, International Community, UN Security Council, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus

243. Global Terrorism Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2012. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), using data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources. In 2023, deaths from terrorism increased by 22 per cent to 8,352 deaths and are now at their highest level since 2017, although they remain 23 per cent lower than at their peak in 2015. Excluding the October 7th Hamas attack, deaths would have still been up by five per cent. Whilst the number of deaths increased, the number of incidents fell, with total attacks dropping by 22 per cent to 3,350 in 2023. Pakistan recorded the most incidents of any country, with 490 attacks recorded. The rise in deaths but fall in number of incidents shows how terrorism is becoming more concentrated and more lethal. The number of countries recording a death from terrorism fell to 41, considerably lower than the peak of 57 countries recorded in 2015 and the 44 recorded in 2022.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Peace, Organized Crime, Countering Violent Extremism, and October 7
Political Geography:: Sahel and Global Focus

244. Business & Peace Report 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This report examines the relationship between a country's economic performance and its level of peacefulness. The key finding is that peace serves as a reliable predictor of a country's future macro-economic trajectory, creating a business environment that provides superior returns to global averages. This represents a valuable insight for informing strategic investment decisions and offering a multitude of applications for businesses and fund managers, including in the design of financial investment products. For corporations it can help to guide investment decisions into markets with lower risk and stronger growth potential.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Macroeconomics, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

245. Halo, Positive Peace and Systems Thinking 2024: Advancing a Systems-Based Approach to Understanding and Building Peace

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is dedicated to advancing the understanding of the operations of societal systems. To this end, this report brings together research conducted by IEP over the last decade and includes two conceptual approaches that are distinct but highly compatible: Positive Peace and Halo. These two concepts guide the organisation’s research, mission, and theory of social change. In addition, the report covers other related work including attempts to measure national intent, predict future substantial declines in peace, and to measure societal shocks and resilience in relation to the ecology.
Topic:: Economics, Peace, Resilience, and Systems Thinking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

246. Positive Peace Report 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Peace is more than the absence of violence. Positive Peace describes the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. It is conceptually related to many aspects of social development and can be used in multiple contexts. In addition to being a transformative concept, it is also a social good. When combined with systems thinking Positive Peace is a transformational concept as it envisages new ways of understanding how societies operate and how to develop thriving communities. Toward this end, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) developed the Positive Peace Index (PPI), a statistically derived measure of the factors that create flourishing societies, which is based on eight Pillars of Positive Peace. The concept of Positive Peace as well as general PPI results, including rankings and changes over time, are the focus of this report.
Topic:: Economics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Positive Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

247. Global Peace Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. This year it introduces a new measure of global military capability that incorporates military sophistication, technology, and battle readiness into a single measure. The report finds that many of the conditions that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of the Second World War. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the most since the end of Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, either militarily or through peace agreements. The number of conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

248. Contemporary Trends in Militarisation

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This report provides two new approaches to understand the capabilities of the world’s militaries by country. The first analyses and tracks changes in a range of militarisation indicators. The main finding of this approach is that while military expenditure is rising in absolute terms, as a percentage of GDP it has fallen and is around half of the peaks seen at the height of the Cold War. Concurrently, as military sophistication increases, troop numbers are declining, highlighting a growing reliance on technology. The second approach is the development of a new and original methodology that calculates the military capacity of countries by weighting the generations of their military assets. These capability scores substantially change the ranking of countries when compared to traditional approaches that count just the number of military assets, or compare military expenditure. The US has the highest capability score, well ahead of China, which ranks second. Russia follows China closely in third. Countries such as Iran and North Korea, despite having large fleets of fixed wing planes, drop considerably in the rankings, because their assets represent older technology. These trends occur as the world is at a crossroad with the number of conflicts, 59, at an all-time high since WWII. These conflicts are becoming more internationalised, with 92 countries involved in a conflict beyond their borders, rising competition between the major powers, and more middle level powers also becoming more assertive. Unresolved conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII, opening more opportunity for major conflicts to erupt.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Conflict, Militarization, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Global Focus

249. Multilateralism Index 2024

Author:: Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: There are growing calls to transform the multilateral system, which is widely seen as being in crisis. Yet solving the crisis of multilateralism requires understanding what that crisis entails. What parts of the multilateral system are in crisis, and what parts are still functioning? Where is commitment to multilateralism flagging, and where does it remain strong? Where is multilateral action failing to translate into concrete results, and where is it delivering? Who is being left out of multilateral engagement, and who is being included? And what are the trends over time? To help answer these questions, the International Peace Institute (IPI) and the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) developed the Multilateralism Index. This 2024 edition of the Index assesses changes in international cooperation between 2013 and 2023 across five domains: Peace and Security, Human Rights, Climate Action, Public Health, and Trade. Each domain is evaluated across three dimensions: Participation, Performance, and Inclusivity
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Human Rights, Multilateralism, Peace, Trade, Public Health, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

250. Climate Adaptation Finance: The Gap Between Needs and Resources Continues to Grow

Author:: Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:: Our recent research on the state and trends of climate adaptation finance needs, gaps, and trends globally and in Africa provides new insights that call for greater urgency in adaptation action and financing. The global adaptation funding gap continues to widen because the understanding of needs shows much higher levels of investment required, and the rate of increase of adaptation financing is insufficient. In this policy brief, we review global climate finance trends, the growing funding gap in climate adaptation finance globally and in Africa, financial instruments used for climate adaptation, and challenges and recommendations to improve the tracking of climate adaptation finance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Climate Finance, International Development, Funding, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

251. Legality of the Use of Cluster Bombs in International Law: A Short Overview

Author:: Vesna Poposka and Abdulmecit Nuredin
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine brought the collective security system towards a dead-end street. After raising the question of nuclear threat, another long-time forgotten question arises again, waking up the ghosts that slept for more than a half-century- the use of cluster bombs. Although an international convention prohibits this type of weapon, neither Ukraine, Russia, nor the United States are part of it, which leads back to the agony of fragmentation of international law versus the erga omnes concept of universally applicable norms and customary rules. Since the war is official and intensive, the law of armed conflict applies no matter which of the states involved denies it or names it differently. The use of cluster munitions from both sides is highly contested in international law—the paper aimed to provide an overview of the applicable legal framework through analytical and comparative methods. Although there is a general notion that cluster munition is banned under international law, the paper’s results show this is not the ultimate case. Contextualisation relies on the four basic principles of humanitarian law.
Topic:: Security, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Russia-Ukraine War, and Cluster Bombs
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Global Focus

252. The UN Summit of the Future: Neither breakthrough nor breakdown

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The complex and interconnected governance challenges facing the world have led the UN to convene a Summit of the Future. Despite the tense international political climate, the aim is for UN member states to come together to lay out a roadmap for transforming global governance.
Topic:: United Nations, Governance, Geopolitics, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

253. Labor Market Volatility and Worker Financial Wellbeing: An Occupational and Gender Perspective

Author:: Julie Yixia Cai
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: One emerging but underexplored factor that is likely to contribute to group racial earnings disparity is unstable work schedules. This is often detrimental for hourly workers when volatility is frequent, involuntary, or unanticipated. Using data from 2005-2022 monthly Current Population Survey and its panel design, this study follows a group of hourly workers across a four-month period to assess whether labor market volatility relates to their financial well-being, focusing on low-wage care and service occupations as well as female workers and workers of color. The findings are threefold: In general, during economic expansion periods, nonwhite workers often benefit more in terms of wage growth compared to their white counterparts. Second, net of other characteristics, on average, greater volatility is associated with lower earnings, and this is mostly driven by those holding jobs in low-wage service sectors and healthcare support roles. Last, the earnings consequences of volatility vary significantly by the type of low-wage jobs a worker holds and their gender and race, but this is only true when volatility happens in a job. Specifically, when working within the same employment spell, female workers, particularly those of color and those working in low-wage service and care jobs, earn significantly less when facing greater volatility than their male counterparts or those working in non-service, non-care occupations.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Finance, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

254. Bagehot’s Classical Money View: A Reconstruction

Author:: Perry Mehrling
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Bagehot is difficult for modern economists to read with understanding, for three reasons. He was a classical economist not neoclassical, his orientation was global not national, and, most importantly, his intellectual formation was as a practicing country banker not an academic. This paper adopts all three perspectives, and uses this frame to reinterpret his mature work, both Lombard Street and the unfinished Economic Studies, as the origin of the key currency tradition which continues as a minority view in modern economics.
Topic:: Globalization, History, Macroeconomics, and Walter Bagehot
Political Geography:: Global Focus

255. Monetary Policy and Illiquidity

Author:: Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The discussion of financial stability, and the role of monetary policy, is incoherent because there is very little agreement on what constitutes financial stability (and, by implication, instability) - exchange rate stability, asset price stability, absence of debt default. By implication, there is a gap between the claims of various authors to the general applicability of their respective analyses, and the actual applicability of their conclusions, let alone the usefulness of some of their policy recommendations. The paper argues that the key issue is the regulation of the liquidity of all financial markets, and not just that of the banking system, through the markets for government securities. The paper examines the sources of this liquidity in the financial portfolios of the private sector, and how that liquidity may be managed through the open market operations of central banks and the debt management operations of governments. An implication of this approach is yield curve control and the use of (government) debt management to control the liquidity of the markets. These elements of monetary policy have been neglected in theory and policy since the 1950s.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Liquidity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

256. Tesla as a Global Competitor: Strategic Control in the EV Transition

Author:: Matt Hopkins and William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: In this paper, we assess the implications of Elon Musk’s strategic control over Tesla, the pioneering company that has become central to the electric vehicle transition. We document how, as Tesla’s CEO for 16 years, Musk has exercised strategic control to direct the transformation of the company from an uncertain startup to a global leader. Now that Tesla is profitable corporate predators (aka hedge-fund activists) may challenge Musk’s strategic control—a possibility of which the CEO is well aware. To retain his control over Tesla as a publicly listed company, Musk depends on holding a sufficient proportion of Tesla’s shares outstanding to possess the voting power to fend off predatory value extractors. In addition to accumulating Tesla shares by investing $291.2 million at early stages of the company’s evolution, Musk has relied upon massive stock-option grants from the Tesla board, under the guise of “compensation”, in 2009, 2012, and 2018, to boost his shareholding and, with it, his voting power. Hence the Delaware Court of Chancery’s decision in January 2024 to rescind Musk’s 2018 stock-option package—by far the largest ever granted to a corporate executive—poses a threat to Musk’s strategic control at Tesla. As the “Technoking” of Tesla strategizes to maintain his control over the company’s decision-making, anyone concerned with the role that Tesla will play in the evolving EV transition should be asking how CEO Musk might use, or abuse, his powerful position.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economic Competition, Electric Vehicles, Tesla, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

257. Concentrating Intelligence: Scaling and Market Structure in Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Anton Korinek and Jai Vipra
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolving structure and competition dynamics of the rapidly growing market for foundation models, focusing on large language models (LLMs). We describe the technological characteristics that shape the industry and have given rise to fierce competition among the leading players. The paper analyzes the cost structure of foundation models, emphasizing the importance of key inputs such as computational resources, data, and talent, and identifies significant economies of scale and scope that may create a tendency towards greater market concentration in the future. We explore two concerns for competition, the risk of market tipping and the implications of vertical integration, and use our analysis to inform policy remedies to maintain a competitive landscape.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Business, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

258. Macroeconomic Modeling in the Anthropocene

Author:: Yannis Dafermos, Andrew McConnell, Maria Nikolaidi, Servaas Storm, and Boyan Yanovski
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Recent years have seen an increasing use of environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) models for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of the climate crisis. This paper explores to what extent these models are fit for purpose. We identify the limitations of the benchmark E-DSGE framework and explain how these limitations restrict the ability of this framework to meaningfully capture the macroeconomics of the climate crisis. We then explain how the assumptions behind these limitations can be relaxed, but argue that simply relaxing some of these assumptions in isolation is insufficient to address the problem. We therefore call for a broader use of other macroeconomic models, such as ecological stock-flow consistent (E-SFC) and ecological agent-based (E-AB) models, that address these limitations simultaneously. We explain how these models do not suffer from the pitfalls of the E-DSGE framework and outline how they need to improve to increase their usefulness as tools that can inform macroeconomic policy making in the Anthropocene.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

259. Responsible Change: How Governments Can Address Environmental, Social and Governance Challenges When Petroleum Assets Change Hands

Author:: Nicola Woodroffe
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: As the world moves toward a future beyond oil and gas, petroleum assets will change hands, with different kinds of companies replacing others. Since 2014, around USD 88 billion in assets have moved from publicly listed to private companies. The roles of sub-Saharan African and Latin American companies in their home countries have expanded. Globally, the role of national oil companies (NOCs) is growing. NOCs have acquired around $24 billion in assets from non-NOCs since 2014. The growing role of private and local companies and NOCs potentially gives producer countries greater control over their petroleum sectors, including the pace of an eventual phaseout. However, these companies often have less capacity and fewer transparency, environmental, social and governance commitments than publicly listed international companies. This increases the risk that these companies’ operations will negatively impact the environment and communities, and that they will be unable to pay for decommissioning when production ends. Many assets that sub-Saharan African and Latin American NOCs have acquired appear vulnerable to energy transition risks. Governments should exercise approval rights over asset transfers to ensure buyers have requisite capacity to operate with high standards. They should ensure transparency to allow host communities and the public to better understand transfer impacts and how the government and/or companies will manage them, and strengthen regulations to address key issues arising from transfers including emissions management and reporting, and decommissioning funding. Governments should require NOCs to make adequate disclosures about their acquisitions to ensure NOCs manage risks to the public purse.
Topic:: Environment, Oil, Governance, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

260. Responsible Exit Principles for Oil and Gas Companies

Author:: Nicola Woodroffe and Erica Westenberg
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Asset transfers in the oil and gas industry are not new. Yet, as the energy transition accelerates, there is a growing risk that oil and gas companies sell assets in response to pressures to decarbonize. However, transferring assets to operators with lower standards can lead to higher emissions and increased risks. This briefing offers a framework to guide these transactions and ensure that environmental and operational integrity is upheld. Designed for use by a range of stakeholders, these principles set out best practices to help companies manage financial, legal, environmental and reputational risks during asset transfers. They were developed with input from representatives of the oil and gas industry; investors, the financial, legal and accounting professions; the insurance industry; standard-setting bodies; academia; and civil society. All stakeholders can adopt and refine these standards to support a responsible, low-emissions future and harmonize regulatory practices across the industry.
Topic:: Corruption, Environment, Oil, Gas, Accountability, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

261. Behind the Schemes: Anticorruption Gaps in Mining Sector Certifications

Author:: Susannah Fitzgerald, Robert Pitman, Matthieu Salomon, and Phesheya Nxumalo
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Decisionmakers are increasingly looking to certification schemes to provide information on the sustainability of mining operations, yet these schemes have significant room for improvement regarding how they address corruption in their standards. The report assesses the content of the performance standards used by the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI), the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA), The Copper Mark, and Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM). Schemes address some topics, such as revenue and payments and anticorruption procedures, relatively well; this may reflect the extent to which legislation and regulations address these topics. Schemes’ standards less frequently covered other issues, such as beneficial ownership and allegations of corruption. Many schemes, and the mining companies that use them, are missing an opportunity to assess the implementation of corporate-level anticorruption policies in mine-site assessments. The quality of certification schemes’ governance and assurance processes is essential to their effectiveness, yet many fall short of best practice. This undermines their credibility. Key governance challenges include the unbalanced representation of different interests within schemes and the risk of conflicts of interest in the auditing process. Decisionmakers risk becoming overreliant on certification schemes as indicators of responsible business conduct, which may be facilitated in part by industry influence over policymaking processes. Certification schemes are not a replacement for ongoing, robust due diligence into the environmental, social, and governance impacts of mining operations, including corruption, and the design and enforcement of robust regulatory frameworks. In a shifting standards landscape where there are efforts to both consolidate and review existing certification schemes, and a moment where the risk of corruption is heightened by growing demand for transition minerals, governments, mining companies, and certification schemes themselves must do more to address the topic of corruption. To do so effectively, they should focus their attention on solutions that will have the most impact in addressing this issue.
Topic:: Corruption, Environment, Governance, Accountability, Mining, Transparency, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus

262. Leveraging Livelihood Diversification for Peacebuilding in Climate- and Conflict-affected Contexts

Author:: Farah Hegazi and Katongo Seyuba
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: Livelihoods are central to the relationship between climate change and conflict. Despite the recognition that climate change related livelihood deterioration is associated with conflict, livelihood interventions are not prominent as a peacebuilding tool and most livelihood diversification is done autonomously. Supporting women’s livelihoods is also overlooked as a peacebuilding tool, with the focus primarily being on addressing the consequences of sexual violence after conflict. This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into how building and diversifying livelihoods can contribute to peacebuilding in climate- and conflict-affected contexts. The policy brief recommends: (a) supporting viable and sustainable livelihood diversification interventions to effectively address livelihood insecurity and associated conflict risks, and (b) increasing support for women’s livelihoods to promote women’s empowerment as a peacebuilding tool.
Topic:: Climate Change, Women, Conflict, Economic Development, Livelihoods, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

263. Reducing the Role of Nuclear Weapons in Military Alliances

Author:: Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: This paper examines the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances, focusing on the perspectives of the so-called umbrella states—that is, allied states that do not have their own nuclear weapons but are part of the ‘extended nuclear deterrence arrangements’ of a nuclear-armed patron. After analysing allied security thinking and highlighting the underlying assumptions about nuclear deterrence, the paper subjects some of those assumptions to critical scrutiny. Taking into account regional military balances and escalation risks related to nuclear deterrence, it challenges the perceived security benefits of forward-deployed non-strategic weapons, continued support for allied nuclear doctrines based on readiness for the first use of nuclear weapons, and the assumed inevitability of nuclear second strike that underlies the practices of nuclear assurance. The goal is to open discussion on the development of a more measured approach to deterrence that would allow for minimizing the role of nuclear weapons in military alliances.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

264. Climate Change Adaptation in Areas Beyond Government Control: Opportunities and Limitations

Author:: Karen Meijer and Ann-Sophie Böhle
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: Areas beyond government control constitute a highly diverse subgroup of fragile and conflict-affected settings. As a result of conflict and weak governance, many of these areas have become more vulnerable to climate change. Their communities have been left with limited capacity to respond to changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events. These settings pose unique challenges for external engagement and have, therefore, long been overlooked in adaptation efforts. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security explores both opportunities for and limitations of climate change adaptation in areas beyond government control. By highlighting the diversity of these settings and the range of possible adaptation measures, the paper proposes a framework with four guiding questions designed to help identify context-appropriate adaptation options.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Governance, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

265. Unveiling Challenges and Gaps in Climate Finance in Conflict Areas

Author:: Karen Meijer and Abeer S. Ahmad
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: This SIPRI Insights addresses challenges related to climate finance distribution in conflict-affected countries, where vulnerabilities to climate change are significantly exacerbated. Conflict reduces the ability of populations to adapt, making effective climate finance even more critical. Despite increasing global climate finance commitments, conflict-affected countries consistently receive disproportionately low amounts of per capita climate adaptation official development assistance (ODA) compared to non-conflict-affected countries with similar income levels and climate vulnerabilities. The paper’s analysis, covering both bilateral and multilateral ODA flows between 2015 and 2021, highlights significant disparities in per capita climate adaptation funding. For example, small island developing states receive over US$100 per capita annually, while many conflict-affected countries receive less than $1. Methodological challenges such as those related to ‘regional’ or ‘unspecified’ funds and limited data transparency prevent accurate assessments. The paper highlights the need for improved transparency, equitable redistribution of funds and stronger donor–recipient coordination to ensure climate finance reaches the most vulnerable populations, especially in conflict settings.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, Conflict, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

266. Pax Economica: An Interview with Marc-William Palen

Author:: Seokju Oh and Marc-William Palen
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: In his new book Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World (Princeton University Press, 2024), historian Marc-William Palen offers a counter-history of free trade as an ideology and policy. In the nineteenth century, before it became a cherished possession of the Right, free trade was proudly claimed as their own by Left-wing activists, intellectuals, and politicians, those who were unswervingly committed to equality for all and peace among nations. Palen recovers this forgotten history of the “Left-wing free traders” of the late-nineteenth century, showing how liberal radicals, socialists, feminists, and Christian pacifists all viewed free trade as the key antidote to the social problems they encountered. Palen also upends the conventional understanding of the world of the late nineteenth and the early-twentieth centuries and argues that the fin-de-siècle was not the “Golden Age’ of the First Globalization, but actually the “Iron Age” of market enclosures and imperial competition. In February 2024, I had a great pleasure to discuss Pax Economica with Palen. Below is an edited version of the conversation.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Markets, History, Free Trade, and Interview
Political Geography:: Global Focus

267. The Interwar World: Where, When, and How?

Author:: Poorvi Bellur, Andrew Denning, and Heidi Tworek
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: This interview engages the co-editors of the new edited volume, The Interwar World (Routledge 2023), Andrew Denning and Heidi J. S. Tworek. Expansive both in its breadth as well as in methodological scope, the volume engages more than 50 authors around the critical questions of where and when was the "interwar", as well as the more existential question of the usefulness of this framework of historical temporality and spatiality. The scholarly value of such an endeavour lies perhaps most acutely in its collaborative ethos, at a time when the professionalization of the academy seems only to further ossify the silos of spatial, temporal, and theoretical specializations. Thematically organized, the framing of this volume seems to push its contributors to engage with broader communities of historical scholarship and subsequently be unflinchingly self-reflexive in their use of the "interwar" as an analytic. I had a chance to interview the architects of this volume, Andrew Denning and Heidi Tworek, about the impetus behind such a massive project as well as some of the challenges and questions they faced in both in its planning and its ultimate execution.
Topic:: History, Interview, and Interwar Period
Political Geography:: Global Focus

268. Finding Law in the History of Global Violence: An Interview with Lauren Benton

Author:: Lauren Benton and Daniel R. Quiroga-Villamarín
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: Violence is, in the public imagination, the law’s radical Other. Brutality and cruelty, we tend to believe, are elements that flourish in law’s absence. Not only is the appearance of violence a symptom of the absence of order, but its bloody outbursts are taken to be utterly meaningless. The narrative of the emergence of “modern” law —both within, and beyond, the nation-state— is usually that of the triumph of reason and deliberation over violence. This progression supposedly entailed the prohibition (or at least, the domestication) of force in local and global politics. Against this rather rosy narrative, Lauren Benton invites us to read the ways in which violence and law act, together, to cement claims of global order. Benton does so by placing so-called “small wars” at “the center of a new history” of interpolity relations (p. xii). Instead of seeing them as mere “manifestations of insurgency and counterinsurgency,” she studies how a variety of practices (“raiding and other sporadic violence as well as conflicts that were small in scale, remained undeclared, or lasted for relatively brief periods”) were central to how European empires justified the legality of their expansion over the globe (p. 7). Such “small” wars, in fact, could be quite “big” in scale or “long” over time. What matters is that all these instances of violence oscillated at the “threshold of war and peace” (p. 8) —and, as such, raised thorny questions about their legal basis all long the imperial chain of command. The productive ambiguities offered by this “law of neither war nor peace” offered enormous opportunities for those who knew who to exploit them —as Benton shows by tracing how imperial agents negotiated this threshold at different times and places, from the Iberian Conquistadores “discovering” the Americas all the way to their successors in our own day and age (p. 184-185). The contours of this vague threshold were not, as Benton argues, predetermined by the metropolitan laws of expanding European empires. Pushing against histories of “diffusion” of laws of war from the West to the Rest (p. 9), Benton instead analyzes how agents in different imperial locales —for instance, in both the colonial frontier and heartland— raised arguments about the legality of violence within and beyond the threshold (p. 60). Moreover, “not just Europeans, and not just law-trained elites” were productively exploiting the ambiguities of this threshold (p. 17). The book is replete with cases in which non-lawyers (for example, a British captain patrolling distant seas) or local elites (for instance, rulers in South Asia) were active interpreters of the law applicable to the violence they encountered (p. 146). By bringing together a variety of materials from different continents and periods, Benton provides a thoroughly global account of the interpenetration of law and violence in the making of empire —past, present, and perhaps even future.
Topic:: International Law, Law, Violence, Interview, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

269. Historicizing a planetary future: A discussion with Emma Rothschild on the convergence of climate science and historical thinking in the “1800 Histories” project.

Author:: Glenda Sluga and Heidi Tworek
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: TPF Executive board members Glenda Sluga and Heidi J.S. Tworek interviewed Emma Rothschild on her latest project “1800 Histories”; a collaborative effort to bring together climate science methodologies and various micro-histories of methane production, and to push historical scholarship towards a global history of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, History, Interview, and Climate Science
Political Geography:: Global Focus

270. Nuclear Danger and the NPT

Author:: Henry Sokolski
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: Next month, the second Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) preparatory review conference will meet in Geneva. In anticipation of this international conference, NPEC is releasing Nuclear Danger and the NPT, an edited volume of research on what nuclear dangers await and how proper enforcement of the NPT can help. The hope is that the volume’s analysis will prompt constructive debate. It certainly is needed. Within ten years, there is a distinct possibility South Korea, Japan, the UAE, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran may decide to acquire nuclear weapons. After that, Algeria, Finland, Sweden, Ukraine, and Australia may be sorely tempted to do the same. More could follow. What is fueling these grim prospects? Several things: Growing Russian, Chinese, and North Korean nuclear capabilities and threats; Russian forward basing of nuclear weapons in Belarus; waning allied confidence in U.S. nuclear security guarantees; and an increasing acceptance of dangerous civilian nuclear activities that bring states to the brink of bomb-making. Legally, the NPT is supposed to prevent these troubles. The question is will it? Much depends on what major nuclear powers choose to do regarding their NPT commitments and how smaller, nonnuclear nations view the treaty. Nuclear Danger and the NPT is designed to help clarify what that requires. Earlier this year, NPEC released an occasional paper on the challenges of creating a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East. Such challenges will surely be considered at the upcoming NPT review conference, but there will be more issues up for discussion. Attendees will likely debate the future of U.S. and Russian nuclear sharing arrangements, as well as the limits of what should be considered “peaceful” under the NPT. Iran’s threatened withdrawal from the treaty will also be a concern, as will China’s worries over the potential for Washington to redeploy nuclear weapons to South Korea or for Seoul to acquire its own nuclear weapons. The U.S. delegation is likely to raise complaints about China’s nuclear weapons build up and Beijing’s unwillingness to enter into good faith negotiations on effective nuclear controls. Finally, Russia’s assaults on Ukraine’s civilian nuclear systems and the legitimacy of such assaults are likely to be discussed. Nuclear Danger and the NPT covers all of these topics in depth. For hawks and doves, Washington insiders, and simply concerned citizens, it’s worth reading.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, Nuclear Energy, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, South Korea, Global Focus, and United States of America

271. Security Studies: Classic to Post-Modern Approaches

Author:: Vildan Meydan
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: What kinds of security threats do states currently face in international relations? What areas do security studies cover in the discipline? Contrary to the military security-oriented structure of the Cold War period, the new era requires a more inclusive and alternative approach to security studies due to the effects of globalization. Therefore, many areas that were seen as low politics issues in the early years of the discipline have begun to play an important role in shaping today’s international system and the security perception of states. For someone seeking to answer the above questions, Security Studies: Classic to Post-Modern Approaches, edited by Arda Özkan and Göktürk Tüysüzoğlu, is a good starting point. Within the framework of its eighteen chapters, the book is an important reference that not only deals with the classical approaches of the discipline, such as military issues, but also explores post-modern approaches and contemporary topics, such as energy, environment, migration, and so on.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Book Review
Political Geography:: Global Focus

272. The Making of the World: How International Organizations Shape Our Future

Author:: Asiye Gün Güneş Gülal
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The role of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the global system is a contentious issue. States delegate some responsibilities and in certain instances accept growing autonomy. Coalitions address complex environments, wasteful overlaps and jurisdictional trespass, turning them into productive divisions of labor. Therefore, Yves Schemeil aims to explain in his new book, The Making of the World: How International Organizations Shape Our Future, the expansion, collaboration, competition, and death of international organizations (IO), offering “a concise and topical discussion” to distinguish the book from the IOs literature. The book examines the impact of IOs on daily life and the exogenous contexts that constrain their action, focusing on inputs rather than outputs and emphasizing networks rather than single units. It highlights the interplay between factors employed in IOs, such as collaborative trends and networking potential. Networks are essential for IOs as they help prevent deadlocks, make the fight for narrower win-sets obsolete, and solve the credibility problem by generating trust. IOs have, moreover, invented new ways of management and governance, making their organizations more flexible, cognitive, transformative, and networking-based.
Topic:: International Organization, Non-Governmental Organization, Book Review, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

273. Impact of the Montreal Protocol on Decision-Making Processes for Participation: A Case Study of Türkiye

Author:: Derya Gül Öztürk
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of Türkiye’s decision-making processes in the context of the international ozone regime, particularly focusing on the country’s engagement in the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol during the 1980s and early 1990s. Utilizing process tracing methodology and primary sources, and adopting an interest-based framework the research delves into Türkiye’s involvement and pinpoints the principal determinants of its international environmental policy. The study argues that Türkiye’s approach to environmental cooperation in the Convention and Protocol was shaped by the incentive and sanction provisions of the Montreal Protocol, efforts to align Türkiye’s commercial and political relations with the European Community, the growing involvement of Western countries in the agreements, and the potential environmental prestige gained from cooperative endeavors. The study emphasizes the trade provisions and Article 5 status within the Montreal Protocol, both of which played a critical role in influencing Türkiye’s policy choices. This significance primarily stems from the requirement for new calculations in abatement costs. It illuminates the causal links between specific design elements of the ozone regime and their impact on Türkiye’s policy decisions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Montreal Protocol, Ozone, and International Environmental Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

274. Citizenship Hierarchies: Talent Programs, Commodification Debates and Citizenship at the Nexus of Market and Desirability Logics

Author:: Özlem Altan Olcay and Evren Balta
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: In recent years, an increasing number of nations have developed and institutionalized immigration programs aimed at attracting high-net-worth individuals, promising expedited residency and, in many cases, a streamlined path to citizenship. These initiatives target individuals expected to contribute economically, whether through immediate financial investments, capital transfers, or desirable professional skills deemed essential for national economic competitiveness. This article critically examines the rise of talent programs against the backdrop of scholarship studying investment-based citizenship schemes. While there is a developed literature studying investment-based citizenship programs and criticizing the imposition of neoliberal rationalities on state-induced meanings and practices of citizenship, there is less attention paid to the implications of these so-called merit-based citizenship programs. We argue that both sets of schemes follow a neoliberal market logic, prioritizing immigrants based on their perceived economic value. We explore how these programs disembed potential immigrants from their social contexts and perpetuate market-based inequalities. Thus, we propose that despite the distinctions often made between talent programs and investment schemes, both contribute to the reinforcement of a global citizenship hierarchy. Drawing on examples from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries’ skilled migration initiatives, we demonstrate how these programs shape discourses of selectivity and “deservingness” for future citizenship. Through a comprehensive analysis of legal frameworks and policy databases, the study highlights the complex interplay between migration policies, commodification of citizenship, and global hierarchies. Ultimately, it calls for a deeper understanding of the continuities and transformations in citizenship logics enabled by the infusion of market dynamics into migration policies.
Topic:: Markets, Migration, Inequality, Citizenship, Hierarchy, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

275. A Legal Notion of Adverse Inference in WTO Case Law

Author:: Markiyan Malskyy
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Gathering evidence is of utmost importance in any legal proceeding. However, sometimes, one of the parties may hide specific evidence, which complicates the adjudicators’ reaching of a fair conclusion. For such cases, judges or arbitrators can use several tools, one of which is adverse inference. An adverse inference is a negative conclusion that may be drawn from a party’s failure to provide some evidence without a valid excuse for non-production. By drawing it, adjudicators assume this evidence would harm the party’s interests. At the same time, adverse inference is quite a radical tool because it may strongly impact the final decision. Because of this, adjudicators are sometimes cautious about using it. This paper analyzes the notion of adverse inference in the context of the dispute resolution mechanism available in the WTO. In particular, three cases were summarized in which the Appellate Body made interesting findings regarding the application of adverse inference. As a result of the work, conclusions from these cases are made that can be used by lawyers in future WTO disputes, as well as in other international and national dispute resolution fora.
Topic:: World Trade Organization, Dispute Resolution, Fact-Finding, and Adverse Influence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

276. Notes Towards a Multifaceted Approach to Political Stability

Author:: Radu Carp and Łukasz Perlikowski
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper seeks to improve comprehension of issues related to political stability. The primary elucidating tool employed is the multifaceted approach to political stability. This is the idea that similar political stability mechanisms can be observed in many different political contexts. These phenomena consist of conspicuous discrepancies between the stability of dimensions or layers of the political sphere. The lack of congruency between political stability and economic stability, differences between the stability of government authorities and the stability of the whole political system, or the gap between social and political stability are examples that are not difficult to grasp in ordinary observations of political appearances. The main task of this paper is to explain and elaborate on the reasons behind this phenomenon. As an additional value, some suggestions of how our findings can change the view on the method of research on political stability are to be found. The outcome of our investigation can be applied to comparative politics, constitutional studies, and political system analysis. The paper is particularly significant for empirically oriented political theory.
Topic:: Political stability, Asynchronism, and System Analysis Approach
Political Geography:: Global Focus

277. Nationalism, Capitalism and Hostility Towards Environmental Policies: A Theoretical Study

Author:: Piotr Walwicz
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article explores a possible connection between nationalism, capitalism, and nationalist movements’ common hostility towards environmental policies. It draws from materialist assertions about the capitalogenic nature of ecological degradation and modernist theories of nationalism, which explain it as a product or by-product of capitalist modernization. By employing theories of nationalism’s instrumentality in preserving the existing social hierarchies, the article proposes that this approach might be extrapolated onto socioecological hierarchies, which are contested or have their fundamental rules challenged by many environmental policies. Nationalism may then be seen as an instrument of capital – personified by the privileged elites – taking advantage of an ideology that appeals to those ‘left behind’ by modernization and globalization to thwart or delay changes to the socioecological status quo. An identity-based movement is thus utilized to protect the continuing exploitation and appropriation of nature. This proposed connection underscores the need for further empirical research, which is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the topic and its potential impact on environmental policies.
Topic:: Environment, Nationalism, Capitalism, and Modernity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

278. The Re-integration of Regional Studies as a Sub-Discipline of International Relations

Author:: Jakub Zajaczkowski
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to analyse the ontological and epistemological dimensions of the main stages of the development of regional studies as a sub-discipline of international relations. The research problem of the article focuses on the interdependence and significance of regional studies as a sub-discipline within the scholarly discipline of international relations. The issue of regionalism and the region arose in the period of the establishment of international relations as a scholarly discipline during the interwar years, and was further conceptualized in the 1950s and 1960s during the Cold War period. The status of regional studies was then marginalized in methodological, ontological and epistemological discourse by the main theoretical trends of international relations. As a result, it was only after the end of the Cold War that we witnessed a gradual, systemic process of reintegration of regional studies within the discipline. This article argues that the reintegration of regional studies into the discipline of international relations is a function of two parallel processes that are interrelated: the transformation of the liberal international order after the end of the Cold War and increased pluralism in scholarly discourse within the discipline of international relations. These developments and their associated academic implications have contributed to the consolidation and strengthening of regional studies as a major subdiscipline of international relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Liberalism, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

279. Generative AI and WMD Nonproliferation: Why Diplomats and Policymakers Need to Pay Attention Now and Develop AI Literacy

Author:: Natasha Bajema
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: The rapid advancement of generative AI (e.g., ChatGPT) has opened a Pandora’s box of opportunities and risks for nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. A new primer from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies by Dr. Natasha E. Bajema cuts through the hype to explain what policymakers and diplomats really need to know about generative AI to understand its impact on the WMD domain. While media attention has focused on ChatGPT and other generative AI models potentially helping bad actors develop weapons, the reality for the WMD domain is more nuanced. Predictive AI tools are already being deployed in military applications. These narrow, task-specific systems can analyze data patterns to support decision-making, but also introduce new risks through cyber vulnerabilities and data biases. Meanwhile, current generative AI models still struggle with accuracy and reliability—they are prone to making up false information and are not yet capable of transferring the tacit knowledge needed for weapons development. However, this could change as the technology advances.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Nonproliferation, Artificial Intelligence, and Generative Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

280. Russia, The Global South and Multilateral Nuclear Diplomacy after the Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Hanna Notte
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 had a detrimental impact on multilateral nuclear diplomacy. The war caused an earthquake in procedure, paralyzing processes at the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations First Committee, and meetings dealing with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. This was the case even as Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling and occupation of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, and Europe’s recommitment to nuclear weapons, demonstrated the ongoing need for nuclear dialogue. States from the Global South tended to navigate cautiously vis-à-vis Russia across the multilateral nuclear negotiating forums. Amid greater difficulties in forging common positions on nuclear issues related to the Ukraine war, these states were also frustrated with what they perceived as a deprioritization of their interests in multilateral nuclear diplomacy. Western states, especially during the first year of the war, were seen as exercising unwelcome pressure on the Global South to take sides against Russia. Russia, meanwhile, pursued a dual strategy, undermining nonproliferation efforts and chipping away at trust in legacy institutions, while also leveraging these forums in pursuit of greater alignment with states in the Global South. The implications of these different dynamics for the health of the nuclear order may take some time to fully play out, but will likely be profound.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Global Focus, and Global South

281. Reconciling Contrasting Views on the Growth Effect of Currency undervaluations

Author:: Cécile Couharde, Carl Grekou, Valérie Mignon, and Florian Morvillier
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the link between exchange rate misalignments and economic growth for a large sample of 170 countries over the 1973-2019 period. We rely on new cross-country data on multilateral currency misalignments and cross-quantile regressions to demonstrate that the seemingly divergent views of the Washington Consensus and the export-led growth theory on the role of currency undervaluations in promoting economic growth can be reconciled. Although any significant departures from the equilibrium exchange rate levels are found undesirable, we show that undervaluations are more likely to stimulate economic growth in developing countries. However, this positive impact is observed only up to certain thresholds of development level and currency undervaluation. Consequently, strategies in the poorest countries that systematically undervalue currencies in real terms to foster growth should be carefully tailored, as they raise the risk for these economies of switching from a positive to a less favorable growth regime, depending on both their specific wealth level and the extent of their currency undervaluation.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Currency, and Undervaluation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

282. The Industrial Cost of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

Author:: Blaise Gnimassoun, Carl Grekou, and Valérie Mignon
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies is one of the most striking stylized facts of the recent decades. In this paper, we provide solid empirical evidence supporting that the choice of a fixed exchange rate regime accelerates this phenomenon. Relying on a panel of 146 developed, emerging, and developing countries over the 1974-2019 period, we show that fixed exchange rate regimes have had a negative, significant, and robust effect on the size of the manufacturing sector —developing countries being the most affected by the industrial cost of such a regime. Additional gravity model regressions show that the impact of fixed regimes passes through the trade channel. In particular, this regime has kept countries with low relative productivity in a state of structural dependence on imports of manufactured products to the detriment of the emergence of a strong local manufacturing sector.
Topic:: Developing World, Manufacturing, Industrialization, Deindustrialization, Exchange Rates, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

283. The Percolation of Knowledge across Space

Author:: Pierre Cotterlaz and Arthur Guillouzouic
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: This paper shows that the negative effect of geographical distance on knowledge flows stems from how firms gain sources of knowledge through their existing network. We start by documenting two stylized facts. First, in aggregate, the distance elasticity of patent citations flows has remained constant since the 1980s, despite the rise of the internet. Second, at the micro level, firms disproportionately cite existing knowledge sources, and patents cited by their sources. We introduce a framework featuring the latter phenomenon, and generating a negative distance elasticity in aggregate. The model predicts Pareto-distributed innovator sizes, and citation distances increasing with innovator size. These predictions hold well empirically. We investigate changes of the underlying parameters and geographical composition effects over the period. While the distance effect should have decreased with constant country composition, the rise of East Asian economies, associated to large distance elasticities, compensated lower frictions in other countries.
Topic:: Economy, Innovation, Patents, and Knowledge Diffusion
Political Geography:: East Asia and Global Focus

284. UIP Deviations in Times of Uncertainty: Not all Countries Behave Alike

Author:: Purva Gole, Erica Perego, and Camelia Turcu
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: In this paper, we reconsider the role of uncertainty in explaining uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) deviations by focusing on 60 emerging and developing (EMDE) and advanced (AE) economies, over the period 1995M1--2023M3. We show that differentiating between EMDE currencies and AE currencies is crucial for understanding UIP deviations as the behaviour of excess returns differs in the two groups in periods of uncertainty: deviations become wider for EMDEs and narrow for AEs. These new results are consistent with the idea that in periods of uncertainty, global investors might change their risk preferences and move from high currency-risk investments in EMDEs towards less risky ones in AEs. This evidence holds for both the short-run and long-run UIP, and becomes stronger since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
Topic:: Interest Rates, Risk, Uncertainty, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

285. The Great Depression as a Savings Glut

Author:: Victor Degorce and Éric Monnet
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: New data covering 23 countries reveal that banking crises of the Great Depression coincided with a sharp international increase in deposits at savings institutions and life insurance. Deposits fled from commercial banks to alternative forms of savings. This fuelled a credit crunch since other institutions did not replace bank lending. While asset prices fell, savings held in savings institutions and life insurance companies increased as a share of GDP and in real terms. These findings provide new explanations of the fall in credit and aggregate demand in the 1930s. They illustrate the need to consider nonbank financial institutions when studying banking crises.
Topic:: History, Great Depression, Banking Crisis, Savings, and Thrift
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

286. Pioneering a new classification: a comprehensive study of healthcare products in global trade

Author:: Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman, and Deniz Ünal
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: International trade in healthcare products took off in the 2000s at the height of hyper-globalisation. Twenty years on, the Covid-19 shock drove home to governments the importance of health security and trained the spotlight on the industrial sovereignty issues raised by the international organisation of production. However, the tangled web of international value chains has compromised the traceability of the manufacturing of these essential goods. In addition, the classification of healthcare products across a multitude of industries in the trade and production nomenclatures makes them hard to identify and muddies the picture further. In this paper, we have painstakingly identified these products and classified them together in one industry grouping to assess the scale of and trends in trade to meet the needs of national health systems. Covering a vast range of products (medicinal products and their compounds, medical technology equipment and small medical materials), this healthcare industry grouping has posted the strongest relative growth since 2000, rising to take the number two share of world trade in 2021 just behind electronic products. This paper details the nature of world trade in the healthcare industry grouping and its five branches by production stage (intermediate and final), type of trade flows (one-way and two-way) and quality/price range. It goes on to present how the advanced countries are positioned compared with the rest.
Topic:: Health, International Trade and Finance, Developing World, Economy, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

287. Are Mass Layoffs Individually Costly But Socially Beneficial?

Author:: Axelle Arquie and Thomas Grjebine
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: Relying on rich administrative data, this paper examines the adaptive capabilities of the French labor market in the aftermath of large-scale layoffs in the manufacturing sector. We assess both individual and aggregate effects of these shocks, using a unique quantitative definition of mass layoffs. We first show that displaced workers suffer a long-lasting increase in the probability of being unemployed and, for those who find a job, a decrease in their salary. While mass layoffs entail costs for displaced workers, there is a possible social benefit if they result in productive reallocation of workers to the most innovative companies and in the creation of new firms. Remarkably, our findings indicate that firms that hire displaced workers exhibit lower investment rates, decreased value added, and a reduced workforce, with a higher proportion of employees on fixed-term contracts. Additionally, mass layoffs do not contribute to the enhancement of allocative efficiency, as the most skilled workers are less likely to be matched with the most successful establishments. Furthermore, we assess the extent to which local economies adapt to these shocks, revealing that, six years after the mass layoff event, the local unemployment rate is 12% higher in comparison to unaffected regions. Lastly, the affected areas experience a diminished share of new establishment creation.
Topic:: Employment, Economy, and Layoffs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

288. Automation, Global Value Chains and Functional Specialization

Author:: Lionel Fontagné, Ariell Reshef, Gianluca Santoni, and Giulio Vannelli
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: We study how technology adoption and changes in global value chain (GVC) integration jointly affect labor shares and business function specialization in a sample of 14 manufacturing industries in 14 European countries in 1999– 2011. Our main contribution is to highlight the indirect effect of robotization on relative demand for labor via GVC integration. To do this, we develop a methodology to separately account for robots in the total capital stock. Increases in upstream, forward GVC participation directly reduce labor shares, mostly through reductions in fabrication, but also via management, marketing and R&D business functions. We do not find any direct effects of robot adoption; robotization affects labor only indirectly, by increasing upstream, forward GVC integration. In this sense robotization is “upstream-biased”. We also study novel channels through which rapid robotization in China shaped robotization in Europe and, therefore, GVC participation. This highlights an understudied way by which the global integration of China has affected relative demand for labor in its trading partners.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Automation, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

289. Marka Deneyimi Yaratma Sürecinde Hikâye Anlatıcılığının Rolü

Author:: Ezgi Limanlı and Burcu Öksüz
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bu çalışma, marka deneyimi ve hikâye anlatıcılığı kavramları arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Marka deneyimi ve hikâye anlatıcılığı kavramlarının, marka ile müşteri arasındaki ilişkide yarattığı duygusal ve davranışsal etkiler (memnuniyet, deneyim, güven ve sadakat gibi) incelenmiştir. Veri toplama yöntemi olarak nitel bir araştırma yöntemi olan odak grup görüşmeleri (üç oturum) kullanılmıştır. Odak grup görüşmelerinde 20 ile 30 yaş aralığında bulunan 8 kadın ve 8 erkek olmak üzere toplam 16 katılımcı yer almıştır. Bütçe ve zaman kısıtlarının olması nedeniyle tesadüfi olmayan örnekleme yöntemlerinden kolayda örnekleme yöntemine başvurulmuştur. Katılımcılara toplam 18 soru yöneltilmiştir. Katılımcılardan öncelikle marka olgusunu kapsayan soruları, daha sonra marka deneyimi sürecinde hikâye anlatıcılığına ilişkin soruları yanıtlamaları istenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular detaylıca analiz edilmiş ve yorumlanmıştır. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, hikâye anlatıcılığının marka deneyiminde bir bakıma katalizör görevi üstlendiği görülmektedir. Tüketicilerin duygularına hitap eden, iyi bir şekilde kurgulanmış ve doğru kanallarla ifade edilen gerçek bir hikâyenin tüketicilerde empatiyi arttırdığı ve onları ikna ettiği ortaya konulmuştur.
Topic:: Economics, Communications, Consumer Behavior, Storytelling, Branding, and Marketing
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

290. “Leonardo Da Vinci: Yapay Zekâ Işığın Bilgeliği / Cern’den Nasa’ya İnsanlık Ve Metaverse” Dijital Sergisinin Beden Teması Bağlamında İncelenmesi

Author:: Cansu Kösem İşık
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bilişim İletişim Teknolojilerinin (BİT) gelişimiyle birlikte beden hızla dijitalleşmektedir. Bedenin bu durumu, tüm algı ve deneyim pratiklerinin köklü bir şekilde değişmesi sonucunda meydana gelmektedir. Hareketli ekranlar, datalar ve kodlarla etkileşim içinde olan beden, bu teknolojik araçların bir uzantısı haline gelmiştir. Artık tüm dijital araçlar bedenle iç içe geçmiş durumdadır. Bu noktada arzu, eğlence, özgürlük gibi pratikler bedeni biçimlendirmenin araçları olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu makalede, bedeni biçimlendiren bir eğlence pratiği olarak Leonardo da Vinci: Yapay Zekâ Işığın Bilgeliği / CERN’den NASA’ya İnsanlık ve Metaverse dijital sergisi incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda bedenin dijital çağdaki durumunu kavramak amaçlanmıştır. Makalede yöntem olarak dijital otoetnografi yöntemi kullanılmış; araştırmacı kendisini inceleme nesnesi, başka bir deyişle dijital sergiyi deneyimleyen olarak ele almıştır. Bu bağlamda inceleme, Walter Benjamin’in optik bilinçdışı, sanat eserinin aurası – sezgisel algısı – ve kullanım değeri üzerine olan düşünceleri, Rosi Braidotti, Katherine Hayles, Amber Case’nin posthüman beden kuramı ve Friedrich Nietzsche’nin yabancılaşma konusundaki düşünceleri ekseninde gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırma sonucunda ise, bedenin teknoloji dolayımlı olduğu görülmüştür. Bedenin bu hali, dijital endüstrinin yerleştiği, aktığı ve bedeni yeniden üreterek sistemin işlerliğini sağladığı bir alan olarak anlaşılmıştır. Beden, BİT’in alanıyla eklemlenerek, algısal bir çeşitliliğe açılmıştır. Bu çeşitlilikle haşır neşir haldeki beden, kendine odaklı aynı zamanda hikayeden yoksun bir forma kavuşmuştur. Diğer yandan, dijital sanat eserinin içindeki beden de yeniden üretilmiş, bağlamından kopartılmıştır. Deneyimleyen beden tükenen ve tüketen bir forma evrilirken, eserin içindeki beden de benzer bir duruma evrilmiştir.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Art, and Body
Political Geography:: Global Focus

291. Emin Alper'in Kurak Günler Filmine Bakhtinyen Bir Yaklaşım

Author:: Baran Barış
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: Bakhtin, çeşitli sanat dallarında oluşturulan anlatıların incelenmesi için Einstein’ın Görelilik Kuramı’ndan ödünç aldığı kronotop kavramını geliştirmiştir. Bu kavram çerçevesinde yapılan anlatı çözümlemelerinde zaman ve uzam kurucu öğe kabul edilerek birlikte ele alınmaktadır. Bakhtin’e göre zamansal ve uzamsal belirlenimler, duygu ve değerlerin izlerini taşır. Yüzyıllara bağlı olarak değişen kronotopları yazınsal metinler üzerinden sınıflandıran araştırmacı yol – karşılaşma kronotopu, şato kronotopu, kesişme kronotopu (misafir odası ve salon kronotopu, sokaklar, kentler, kırsal bölgeler ve taşra kasabaları) ve eşik (kopuş) kronotopu olmak üzere dört temel kronotop belirlemiş; on dokuzuncu yüzyıl metinlerine kadar sürdürdüğü çözümlemelerinde ulaştığı kronotop türlerinin yanı sıra farklı ülkelerin yazınsal metinlerinde ve farklı dönemlerde başka kronotopların da saptanabileceğine dikkat çekmiştir. Kronotop kavramı, günümüzde yazın dışındaki sanat dallarında üretilen anlatıların çözümlenmesinde de kullanılmaktadır. Emin Alper’in Kurak Günler (2022) filmi açılış sekansından itibaren zaman ve uzamın kurucu öğe olarak karşımıza çıktığı bir anlatı sunmaktadır. Bu yapısı, filmin kronotop kavramı çerçevesinde incelenmesine olanak sunmaktadır. Suç ile güç arasındaki ilişkiyi irdeleyen, linç kültürünü besleyen kodların nasıl yeniden üretildiğini ortaya koyan ve izlekleriyle anlatıdaki zaman ve uzam öğelerine ilişkin obruk vb. imgeler arasında doğrudan bağlantı kuran Kurak Günler filmindeki kronotopların saptanmasının ve anlatıdaki işlevlerinin çözümlenmesinin amaçlandığı bu çalışmanın araştırma soruları şöyledir: (i) Filmde hangi kronotoplar bulunmaktadır? (ii) Bu kronotoplarla Bakhtin’in belirlediği dört temel kronotop arasındaki benzerlik ve farklılıklar nelerdir? (iii) Filmde tespit edilen kronotoplar, anlatının yapılandırılmasında hangi işlevlere sahiptir? Yapılan incelemelerde filmdeki kronotopların Bakhtin’in dört temel kronotopuyla büyük ölçüde benzerlik gösterdiği tespit edilirken anlatının kronotoplarla filmin temel izlekleri arasındaki ilişkinin koşutluğu üzerinden yapılandırıldığı görülmüştür.
Topic:: Arts, Culture, Film, and Chronotope
Political Geography:: Global Focus

292. AURUM Journal of Social Sciences (Volume 9, Number 1) - Full Issue

Author:: Meltem Yilmaz, Büşra Alparslan, Arzu Uğurlu Kara, Mesut Özcan, and Ceyhun Ilsever
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The first article of this issue is on the field of law. The study is titled “A Street Law Course Experience for Raising Human Rights Awareness”. This study by Meltem Yılmaz aims to examine the contribution of ‘street law’ type legal clinic courses to increase of human rights awareness among both law students and society. As a result of the study, the author finds that giving street law-type law clinics as elective courses in the last years of faculty of law education is the most efficient option; in addition, the importance of enhancing the courses in terms of active learning methods and techniques was emphasized in order to increase efficiency concerning high school and secondary school students’ achievements. The second study in this issue is “War and Peace in Game of Thrones as An Epic Narrative”. This study from the field of psychology was conducted by Büşra Alparslan. The aim of the study is to investigate to examine the war and peace themes in the TV series Game of Thrones, which can be considered as an epic a popular culture narrative. This study’s results reveals that Game of Thrones somewhat differs from traditional epic narratives. Although classical themes like “just war discourse” pops on and off throughout the show, it is also emphasized that, unlike the traditional approach, war is not a glorious act. The third study in this issue is from the field of human resources titled “Adaptation of the “Design Thinker Profile” Scale into Turkish” by Ayça Uğur and Kemal Özkan Yılmaz. As the title suggests, the aim of the study is to adopt “Design Thinker Profile” scale developed by Chesson (2017) to the Turkish and to assess its validity and reliability. The results show that the scale has validity and reliability in Turkish. Another study in our journal is titled “Development of Maritime Public Transportation in Istanbul in the Framework of Organic Transportation Approach”. The study conducted by Ceyhun İlsever and Ayşe Buse Cılız aims to make concrete suggestions for the development of urban maritime public transportation in Istanbul in line with the principles and criteria of organic transportation, which is developed as one of the approaches to integration, accessibility, and governance in transportation. As a result, the authors propose some suggestions under specific headings to increase the demand for maritime transportation in Istanbul. The last study in this issue is from the field of psychology. The article by Ecem Kıran, Yaren Erdoğdu ve Naci Can Sümengen is titled “Examining the Relationship Between Eating Attitudes and Self-Compassion”. As its title suggests, this study aimed to examine the relationship between eating attitudes and self-compassion and to investigate the prevalence of this relationship in a non-clinical sample by evaluating it in terms of chronic and psychological disorders. As a result, a statistically significant negative relationship between disordered eating attitudes and self-compassion levels is found; in addition, results shows that the self-compassion levels of participants diagnosed with a psychological disorder were significantly lower, while participants with a chronic disease had eating attitudes that were significantly disordered compared to participants without a psychological disorder. In addition to the research articles briefly summarized above, we have also included a book review in this issue. Ahmet Tuğşad Doğukan and Fatih Dağ reviewed Thomas Piketty’s “Nature, Culture et Inégalités” book. According to the reviewers, in this book, Piketty examines the complex dynamics of socioeconomic disparities, questioning traditional assumptions that can be characterized as deterministic and offering an innovative perspective on the causes and evolution of inequality. While traditional assumptions emphasize natural factors such as individual abilities or resource endowments, Piketty argues that contrary to these factors, political and social forces have been more influential in the course of inequality throughout history.
Topic:: Development, Culture, Law, Human Resources, Social Science, and Public Transportation
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

293. Disinformation in the City: Response Playbook

Author:: Jessica (Ika) Trijsburg and Paul Costello
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: As actors responsible for decisions and policies that shape people’s daily lives, and as those most aware of community fault lines that are fertile ground for disinformation, city officials are well positioned to respond. Yet, research, analysis, and policymaking related to disinformation have remained at the national and international levels. GMF, the Melbourne Centre for Cities, and other partners have developed a response playbook to help inform and guide city policies and practices to counter disinformation and ultimately to strengthen democracy. In cities, disinformation sometimes manifests itself in physical events, including protests and disruptions. It also has individual impacts for political, institutional, and community leaders and staff. Disinformation affects the functioning of city administrations and elected bodies, impacting governance and policymaking. It also impacts communities, reducing mutual trust and increasing division and polarization. Disinformation commonly exploits existing social fault lines and polarization. In cities, the fault lines targeted by disinformation center around First Nations, migrants, cultural diversity, gender and sexual diversity, health and wellbeing, sustainability and climate issues, and urban planning. Understanding how disinformation spreads, and how to respond effectively, is critical for city governments. Current knowledge, however, is focused mainly on the national and international realms and not readily accessible and translatable for urban governance needs. This is why GMF Cities, in response to needs expressed by many city governments, developed this playbook in collaboration with a core interdisciplinary research team from the Australian National University, Monash University, Deakin University, and Victoria University, led by the Melbourne Centre for Cities at the University of Melbourne. The playbook was developed with representatives from cities, media, the tech sector, civil society, and academia. The process began with an in-depth survey to understand the current experiences of participating cities and responses to disinformation they employed. The findings informed a series of workshops with 40 participants who together created the content of and recommendations in the playbook. The full draft was reviewed by the participants before it was submitted to other cities, city networks, disinformation experts, and other levels of government for pressure testing.
Topic:: Democracy, Cities, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

294. Strengthening the Representation of Women in Diplomacy: Challenges and Policy Solutions

Author:: Marta Kozielska and Karen Smith
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Women’s representation in international diplomacy is alarmingly low. Though it varies across countries and regions, women’s underrepresentation in international diplomacy is pervasive. Despite a few women holding senior leadership positions in prominent institutions such as the World Trade Organization, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, and European Central Bank, women’s representation within international organisations is unequal and only twenty percent of ambassadors worldwide are women. At the same time, research increasingly shows that diversity enhances decision-making capabilities, better addresses the needs of a diverse population, and embodies a commitment to the democratic principles of inclusion and tolerance. The LSE IDEAS Women in Diplomacy project was launched in 2022, and it leverages research, collaboration, and dialogue to address the misrepresentation and underrepresentation of women in this field. To better understand the barriers and enablers that affect women's progress within international diplomacy, the project team has thus far carried out twelve interviews with women who have held high-ranking diplomatic positions or have participated in international diplomatic processes. The interviewees have extensive experience within several sectors, including international trade, international security, international health, development, climate change, cultural diplomacy, and international criminal law. This report summarises key insights from the interviews, a review of the literature on women in diplomacy, and expert feedback. Women face many challenges when it comes to progressing and rising to the top within international diplomacy. This report makes recommendations to try to overcome these challenges, highlighting the significance of changes that need to occur at all levels: individual (centred on empowerment), community (focused on norms, behaviours, culture), and organisational (policy-driven structural change). The key recommendations for diplomatic services and international organisations are: create and implement tailored gender-equality plans which address issues regarding equal pay, parental leave and sexual harassment; collect and analyse gender-specific data to develop an evidence-based Equality, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) strategy; align internal and external gender-equality policies, including in collaboration with stakeholders; ensure fair and inclusive recruitment processes, especially for senior and leadership positions, while fostering mentorship; implement formal and informal career development support, including for ‘trailing partners’; rethink building design and accessibility, including accessible bathrooms and child-care facilities; and finally, establish social inclusion and gender equality as non-negotiable, making the benefits known to everyone within the organisation. The Women in Diplomacy project will use this initial report and its recommendations as the basis for further dialogue and discussion with women’s networks and international organisations around insights, barriers and solutions.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Women, Representation, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

295. Advice from an Old School Diplomat to the Chat/GPT Generation

Author:: Polonius
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: I recently asked Chat/GPT to answer the following question: “What is the relationship between theories of international relations and the actual practice of diplomacy and international affairs”? It answered: “Theories of international relations provide conceptual frameworks for understanding global interactions and influencing diplomatic strategies; however, real-world diplomacy is shaped by dynamic factors, including cultural nuances, geopolitical events, and individual leaders, making the relationship between theory and practice complex and often subject to adaptation.” Yes, that’s from Chat/GPT! Perhaps some reader can improve on that answer, but I am not tempted to try.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Memoir, and ChatGPT
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

296. Tough Love and the Diplomacy of Foreign Assistance

Author:: Mark G. Wentling
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Providing aid to low and middle-income countries (LMIC) is at the heart of our relationships with those countries. The concept is that needy countries on this list of 132 LMICs, particularly the 45 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the bottom range of this list, require external aid for their development. However, almost all the countries on the LMIC list are the same as they were over 30 years ago, and they are no closer to graduating into a higher income category. It is highly doubtful if any LMIC will achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals set for 2030. This raises several fundamental questions about the return on the US government’s investment. What are the cost-benefit and recurrent costs analyses? Do the returns justify the investment of the USG’s human resources and funding amounts? Is USG assistance contributing to modifying the host country’s behavior so that it is more favorable to US interests? Basically, is the activity worth USG resources?
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Investment, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

297. Diplomacy and the Mysteries of the How: The ‘Craft’ in Statecraft

Author:: Philip Zelikow
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Practical leadership has two dimensions. The first dimension is one we know well: choosing what to do. The second dimension is less well known. How to do it? If leaders provide guidance about what is to be done, and how to do it, the rest is management and execution. The first part, the “what to do part,” is an easy debate to follow. It is mostly about goals. People discuss problems, which problems they care about, their values, the role of government. The news is naturally devoted to spotlighting problems and making claims for attention. The second part, the “how to do it part,” is a good deal harder to understand. The debates are far more obscure. People have to make judgments about practical action. That requires specialized knowledge about the available instruments and the relevant circumstances. My argument is that between these two dimensions—the well-known what to do part, the little known how to do part—the “how” knowledge is the high card in the deck. Once it is played, high sounding goals often turn to dust. Former Secretary of State Dean Rusk put it this way: “Ideas are not policies. Besides,” he added, “ideas have a high infant mortality rate.” The “how” is the “craft” in statecraft. Usually, the best diplomacy is a kind of choreography. Roles are assigned, steps are planned. Each of the dancers hits their marks. Mastery of the “how,” as any sergeant can tell you in a platoon, is the true source of practical leadership. Yet this dimension is not well understood. It is infrequently studied and rarely taught.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Leadership, Peace, and Statecraft
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

298. Migrant Labor and Economic Assistance

Author:: Mark G. Wentling
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Factors such as labor migration and remittances are often not given sufficient attention in USG mission host country development strategies. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), 3.6 percent of the world’s population is on the move, and that percentage is projected to increase. Future development plans for Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) have to consider this population movement and the consequent funds transfer from high income countries to LMICs.
Topic:: Development, Migration, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Global Focus

299. The Past, Present, and Future of Realism: A Conversation with Stephen M. Walt—February 2024

Author:: Stephen M. Walt
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: I liked realism from the start because I thought it did a much better job of explaining how states behave than other theories. It is not perfect, and it’s not that other perspectives don’t make their own contributions to our understanding, but I felt that realism had a much better track record in explaining how countries behaved. It also had extraordinary range across time and space: realist ideas could explain a lot about how empires acted, how city-states acted, how nation-states acted. It had explanations for why wars occur, why alliances form, why some states rise and fall. So it had a very wide applicability. And I thought that the main modern rivals to realist theory just weren’t as persuasive. Liberal theories didn’t predict that well. A good liberal would think that democracies would act fundamentally differently than autocracies, but the evidence that they do is limited. And as we talked about before, realism tells you that international law or norms will be of only limited value in controlling what the most powerful states will do.
Topic:: International Affairs, Democracy, Realism, and State
Political Geography:: Global Focus

300. A Wicked Problem: Assessing the Future Jihadist Threat

Author:: Colonel Daniel R. Moy
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The tensions between nationalist, regional, and global terrorist agendas, further complicated by the Shia and Sunni divide, help illuminate the “wicked” nature of the jihadist problem. Far from monolithic, the enemy in the war on terror is a confederation of competing actors joined together in a shared contempt for Israel, the West, and apostate governments. The ideological currents that fuel these religious and political movements are diverse and continuously activated along independent, mutually-supporting pathways—revolutionary, sectarian, regional anti-West, or global-caliphate strains—that tend to immunize the organizations themselves against hierarchical fragility or decapitation. While counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria may have weakened terrorist capabilities in the short term, they have had the opposite effect on the global map, driving organizations like al Qaeda and ISIS to pursue alternate strategies and discover new safe havens. The alarming reality is that despite our extensive, combined efforts to curb the threat of jihadist terrorism, the problem has only morphed and metastasized since 9/11.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Ideology, Jihad, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

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