Political Geography: Global Focus

5851. What defines a “city”?

Author:: Ammar A. Malik and Julia Hagen
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: Readers love lists, especially city rankings. There are lists that rank the world’s leading cities of opportunity, the most sustainable cities, the bike-friendliest cities, the top shopping cities, and even the most competitive cities in the future. What they all share is an attempt to measure cities. But what defines a city? The answer isn’t as clear-cut as it seems. Every year, leading corporations fund the publication of an increasingly large number of benchmarking studies, which generate significant interest in the media. Even the UN has jumped on this bandwagon by adapting, for the first time, an urban goal within the Sustainable Development Goals framework. However, the basic question of what constitutes a city is often defined inconsistently across rankings. This could leave general-interest readers and policymakers, confused, or worse—misled.
Topic:: United Nations, Urbanization, Sustainable Development Goals, and Cities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5852. Development and the WTO: Freedom For Who?

Author:: Rafael Rosa Cedro
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article explores three distinct analytical approaches that offer insights for reflection on the issue of international trade – comparative advantages, dependency theory and GCC/GVC analyses – as a way of providing a critique of the functioning of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its alleged defense of free trade as an engine for development.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Free Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5853. Organization Theory and Complex Peacekeeping

Author:: Joao Marcelo Dallas Costa
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: How far Organization Theory can shed light on complex peacekeeping operations, observing the explanatory power and differences among more hierarchically-based approaches and network theory? It also makes the case for further research on why and how local elites, experienced with foreign intervention, hijack international organizations to advance their own interests.
Topic:: International Organization, Peacekeeping, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5854. Early, Old, New and Comparative Regionalism: The Scholarly Development of the Field

Author:: Fredrik Soderbaum
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:: By tracing the intellectual roots and main characteristics of the scholarly debates on regionalism in different time periods, this Working Paper seeks to contribute to the consolidation of a fragmented field of study in search of its own intellectual history. The paper identifies four main intellectual phases: early regionalism, old regionalism (in both Europe and the developing world), new regionalism, and the current phase of regionalism, referred to as comparative regionalism. It argues that progress in the study of (comparative) regionalism requires a better understanding of the intellectual roots of the field and an acknowledgment of the many types of regions that have occurred in many different historical contexts.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Developing World, Intellectual History, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

5855. Grand Strategy and Self-Determinatio

Author:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This report is the chair's summary from the colloquium, "Grand Strategy and Self-Determination," sponsored by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University, November 19-20, 2014. The notions of “grand strategy” and “self-determination” are of critical significance in today’s world of multiple international crises. At once potentially highly interactive or mutually exclusive, complementary or self-reinforcing, these concepts, however, are rarely analyzed simultaneously. Grand strategy—the utilization of all available means to achieve desired ends—retains remarkable importance, as it continues to shape approaches to the complexities of contemporary policy-making. Yet present-day grand strategy is challenged by evolving notions and distributions of power in the global context. Contentious debates emerge over the state of the international system, with challenges stemming from the role of scientific and technological developments like robotics and nanotechnologies, proliferation of information accessible in real time through social media, the radicalization of religious movements, unequal distribution of income, and high rates of mobility. Today’s world offers no shortage of short- and long-term crises, including the role of power and leadership, economic, financial, energy, environmental and health challenges, a reemergence of nationalism, great-power geopolitics, terrorism, and as-yet unimagined disruptions to or within the international system, with the resulting difficulty of defining and achieving the necessary elements of a toolkit for strategy and diplomacy. Self-determination has been both a source of peace and stability and also an objective and even an instrument of actors in this global context. At the same time, the powerful and often-contested matter of self-determination interacts with and further challenges ideas and norms of strategy and governance. It is here that these two central notions meet, with the conceptual interaction between an individual striving to “determine one’s destiny” and search for greater influence in governance challenged by a status quo which still encourages control and power by national governments. A truly successful grand strategy must, in fact, harness the potentially revolutionary power of self-determination, weaving together the threads of these two paramount principles to face the emerging challenges of the 21st century.
Topic:: Power Politics, Self Determination, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5856. Addressing Child Protection in Conflict Mediation

Author:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University and the non-governmental organization Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict, with support from the Permanent Mission of Liechtenstein to the United Nations, convened a workshop, “Addressing Child Protection in Conflict Mediation: Charting a Way Forward,” on July 15, 2014, at the Princeton Club of New York. The workshop brought together representatives of United Nations member states, including members of the Security Council, United Nations Offices including the Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict (SRSG-CAAC), Department of Political Affairs (DPA), Department for Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO), Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), NGOs, and academics to discuss specific strategies and concrete actions that can be taken to promote child protection in peace processes.
Topic:: United Nations, Children, Peace, Mediation, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5857. Evaluating Project Aim 2020: Preparing to Transform the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Author:: Robert Shea
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has experienced significant changes over the last five years. NRC developed Project Aim 2020 (Project Aim) to improve the agency’s planning and operational functions. Project Aim set out to identify key strategies and recommendations to transform the agency during the next five years to enhance the NRC’s ability to plan and execute its mission in a more effective, efficient, and agile manner. The NRC requested the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to conduct an independent assessment of Project Aim. The Academy’s review of Project Aim consisted of two reports: an evaluation of Project Aim processes; and an assessment of the Project Aim final report. The Academy reports were prepared by a professional Study Team, in consultation with an experienced Focus Group of five Academy Fellows and one non-Fellow. The Study Team and Focus Group utilized their knowledge of strategic planning and organizational change management in their evaluation of the NRC’s efforts, providing the NRC with several pragmatic recommendations as the agency pursues an important organizational transformation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5858. The role of norms in international peace mediation

Author:: Sarah Hellmüller, Julia Palmiano Federer, and Mathias Zeller
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This policy brief assesses the role of norms in international peace mediation. Despite the topic attracting growing attention, the ways in which norms influence mediation processes are often not analysed systematically but rather prescriptively. In order to shed light on this debate from an analytical point of view, the brief suggests a three-step analytical framework. First, it suggests a categorisation of norms, then it assesses how mediators prioritise norms within this framework and finally it calls for a context-specific inclusion of norms in mediation processes. Thus, it argues that explicitly elucidating the different categories of norms, as well as their prioritisation by mediators, mandate-givers and negotiating parties, will lead to a more constructive debate and provide sustainable solutions that are owned by national, and supported by international, actors.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5859. For Human Dignity: The World Humanitarian Summit and the challenge to deliver

Author:: Edmund Cairns
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The UN Secretary-General has called the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016 'to make humanitarian action fit for the future'. Tens of millions of people receive humanitarian aid every year, but millions more suffer without adequate help and protection, and their number is relentlessly rising. One summit cannot change everything. But the key tests of its integrity and success are that the World Humanitarian Summit: €¢ demands that states are held to account for their international obligations on assistance and protection; and €¢ sets out genuinely new ways to support local humanitarian action, to reverse the growing gap between the amount of aid needed and given, and to reduce the risk of future disasters
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5860. Implementing the PWDVA: Safeguarding women from domestic violence

Author:: Pooja Parvati
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) is one of the most widespread, and yet the least recognized, human rights violations across the world. It can manifest in many forms, but the most common form experienced by women globally is physical violence inflicted by an intimate partner. Documenting this continues to be a challenge due to lack of reliable, timely datasets. In 2005, the government of India enacted the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act (PWDVA), which came into force in 2006. Nine years later, progress in its implementation is insignificant as it remains plagued by challenges such as inadequate funds and human resources, poor coordination across implementing agencies and ineffective monitoring mechanisms. Addressing these would go a long way in strengthening the Act and making it effective. This also corresponds with the Indian government’s wholehearted commitment to ‘Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls’ by the year 2030 through its adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Topic:: Gender Issues, Human Rights, Gender Based Violence, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: India, Asia, and Global Focus

5861. Right to a Future: Empowering refugees from Syria and host governments to face a long-term crisis

Author:: David Andres-Vinas, Daniel Gorevan, Martin Hartberg, Melissa Phillips, and Alexandra Saieh
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: With no end to the conflict in Syria in sight, the four million people forced to flee the country have no foreseeable prospect of safe return. And as the impact of the crisis on neighbouring countries grows and aid dries up, the situation for these refugees is becoming increasingly dire. This briefing calls for a new approach by the international community, including Syria's neighbours; one which offers hope, safety and dignity to the millions of refugees, and gives them a chance to contribute to the societies and economies of their hosts.
Topic:: Civil War, Refugee Issues, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Global Focus

5862. Trade Winds: Shaping the Future of International Business

Author:: Scott Livermore
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This report explores how international business has changed since HSBC first opened its doors in Hong Kong over 150 years—and what may come next. The objective of this study was to examine trade patterns in order to understand the historic drivers of globalisation and to help us to discover how those drivers could shape future patterns of trade. It aims to provide practical insight and considerations for the business leaders around the world.
Topic:: Globalization, Business, Trade, and International Business
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5863. Facing Up to the Democratic Recession

Author:: Larry Diamond
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Democracy has been in a global recession for most of the last decade. Yet the picture is not entirely bleak. We have not seen “a third reverse wave.” The key imperative in the near term is to work to reform and consolidate the democracies that have emerged during the third wave—the majority of which remain illiberal and unstable, if they remain democratic at all. It is vital that democrats in the established democracies not lose faith. Democrats have the better set of ideas. Democracy may be receding somewhat in practice, but it is still globally ascendant in peoples’ values and aspirations.
Topic:: Global Recession, Democracy, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5864. The Myth of Democratic Recession

Author:: Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Contrary to widespread belief, there is no global “democratic recession.” Despite less favorable international conditions, levels of democracy in the world remained stable in the 2000s. Perceptions of democratic recession originate in excessive post–Cold War optimism, rooted in the successful democratizations of the 1980s. During the early 1990s, economic crisis, weakened states, and external pressure forced many autocrats to abandon power or tolerate opposition. These authoritarian crises were widely viewed as democratic transitions, even though most were not. Subsequent authoritarian (re)consolidation was thus perceived as democratic “backsliding.” Misplaced pessimism was reinforced by disappointment over non-democratization in China, the Middle East, and elsewhere, despite the fact that most remaining dictatorships existed amid highly unfavorable conditions for democratization.
Topic:: Democratization, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5865. Is Democracy in Decline?

Author:: Marc F. Plattner
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: For 25 years, the Journal of Democracy has been “taking the temperature” of democracy around the globe. Here in our twenty-fifth anniversary issue, we feel compelled to confront head-on the question of whether democracy is in decline. Why? There are two aspects to the answer, which although intertwined are in some measure separable. The first deals with what is actually taking place on the ground: How many countries are democratic? Is their number rising or shrinking? What is the situation with respect to such liberal-democratic features as freedom of the press, rule of law, free and fair elections, and the like? The second, more subjective, aspect concerns the standing of democracy in the world: How is it viewed in terms of legitimacy and attractiveness? It is in this latter dimension that the evidence, or at least the widespread perception, of decline is most striking. Democracy’s supporters must undertake a clear-eyed appraisal of democracy’s current decline and summon the resolve and seriousness of purpose needed to reverse it.
Topic:: Democracy, Political stability, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5866. The Authoritarian Resurgence: Autocratic Legalism in Venezuela

Author:: Javier Corrales
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This paper contributes to the literature on dynamics of hybrid regimes, i.e., whether these regimes stay stable, or instead, turn more democratic or more autocratic with time. Venezuela since the mid-2000s is an example of the latter. I first focus on how this happened in Venezuela. I posit that the turn toward greater authoritarianism occurred through autocratic legalism. This refers to the use, abuse, and disuse of the law to disempower veto players. I then focus on the “why” question. The main cause of Venezuela’s regime dynamics is a combination of external factors (increasing tolerance from abroad) and the ruling party’s declining electoral competitiveness at home and institutional path dependence.
Topic:: Democratization, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5867. Authoritarianism Goes Global: Countering Democratic Norms

Author:: Alexander Cooley
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the international backlash against liberal democracy has grown and gathered momentum. Authoritarians have experimented with and refined a number of new tools, practices, and institutions that are meant to shield their regimes from external criticism and to erode the norms that inform and underlie the liberal international political order. These global political changes and systemic shifts have produced new counternorms that privilege state security, civilizational diversity, and traditional values over liberal democracy. The effects of these changes are most visible in the narrower political space that nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are facing, the shifting purposes that regional organizations are embracing, and the rising influence of non-Western powers as international patrons.
Topic:: Security, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Diversity, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5868. The Rise of the World’s Poorest Countries

Author:: Steven Radelet
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: For more than two decades now, the majority of the world’s poorest countries have been making some of the fastest and biggest development gains in history. The momentous progress achieved since the early 1990s is unprecedented. One-billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty, the child death rate has been cut in half, life expectancy has increased significantly, millions more girls are enrolled in school, deaths in civil wars have dropped by three-quarters, average incomes have almost doubled, food production has increased by half, and democracy has spread like never before in the world’s poorest countries, notwithstanding with many setbacks, obstacles, and imperfections along the way. Some of these gains—especially the declines in poverty and child mortality—rank among the greatest achievements in human history. Yet few people are aware that this progress is even happening.
Topic:: Poverty, Economic Inequality, Mortality, and Quality of Life
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5869. Fixing fragile states: a country-based framework

Author:: Seth Kaplan
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Although there is growing awareness in the development field of the need to better assess fragile states and customise policies to their particular needs, there has been limited progress in these areas. The new Country Fragility Assessment Framework, which systematically examines the societal and institutional sources of fragility, can help decision-makers make more precise diagnoses and better target interventions. It builds on the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States, but offers a more comprehensive framework to assess the forces that can drive a society together or apart. It does this by analysing 12 societal and institutional sources of fragility. The combination of poor social cohesion and poor institutionalisation yields a vicious cycle as instability and underdevelopment feed each other. Social divisions hamper efforts to improve governance and foster economic opportunity, which in turn create discontent and a zero-sum struggle for power and resources. As such, change must target one of these two elements. Even though the framework does not directly provide solutions, it can be used to suggest policy options that are most likely to work, or at least rule out some that will surely fail.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, Fragile States, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5870. NATO and the Women, Peace and Security Agenda: Time to Bring It Home

Author:: Marriet Schuurman
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The year 2015 is a year of global reflection: celebrating the seventy years of the United Nations, the twenty years of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action for gender equality and women’s empowerment, the end year of the Millennium Development Goals, and the fifteenth anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325). Together, these milestones urge us to reflect on what difference these groundbreaking international institutions and collective efforts have actually made.
Topic:: Gender Issues, United Nations, Feminism, and Diversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5871. Gender and the Security Sector: Towards a More Secure Future

Author:: Julie L. Arostegui
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: In recent decades, the nature of war has changed dramatically. Internal conflicts are being waged by opposing armed groups, often divided along ideological or ethnic lines that increasingly target civilians and wreak havoc on society with severe physical, psychological, social, political, and economic consequences. With the changed nature of conflict has come an increasing demand to consider its varied effects on women and girls, men and boys, and to address their specific needs before, during, and after conflict. There is also an increasing awareness of the importance of including women in peace and security processes. Women are 50 percent of the population and a critical part of society and, without them, real and sustainable peace cannot be achieved. They are not merely victims of conflict; they also play active roles as combatants, peace builders, politicians, and activists, and are often in the strongest position to bring about peace in their communities. Women around the world have emerged as voices of peace, mobilizing across communities and using their social roles and networks to mediate and mitigate violence. They have demanded attention to the complex issues of peace and peace building, and the needs of the communities involved, rather than to just cease-fires and power sharing. The international community has responded with a framework for addressing women, peace, and security, which includes United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions and binding international law. Regional bodies such as the European Union, NATO, and the African Union have also developed strong frameworks around gender equality and women’s rights in order to build sustainable peace, driven by advocacy by women’s groups and the experiences of conflict.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Peace, and Social Roles
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5872. What Role for the Security Sector? An SSR Approach to Implementing the Women, Peace and Security Agenda

Author:: Aiko Holvikivi
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The United Nations Security Council resolutions on “Women, Peace and Security” identify security sector reform (SSR) as a tool for their implementation.[1] Nonetheless, the resolutions are often seen as the purview of women’s organizations and the responsibility of ministries of foreign affairs, leaving the role of security sector institutions and their obligations for reform murky.[2] On the other hand, a body of literature oriented toward practitioners and policymakers charts out the rationale and practical tools for ensuring SSR interventions are gender responsive. This literature tends to view the women, peace and security resolutions as a tool for integrating gender perspectives in SSR interventions.[3] However, this literature’s ultimate goal remains the good governance of the security sector. In this article, I seek to bridge this gap through an examination of the roles and responsibilities of the security sector in implementing the women, peace and security agenda.[4] More precisely, I examine the processes and principles associated with security sector reform, and argue that its technical components and ultimate objectives are key to the implementation of the women, peace and security agenda. In other words, I ask what SSR can bring to the women, peace and security agenda, rather than how the integration of gender furthers SSR. As other contributions in this volume have already introduced the women, peace and security agenda, the following section focuses on the concept and key tenets of SSR and engages in a brief discussion on mainstreaming gender into SSR interventions. The analysis that follows is structured around the four pillars of the women, peace and security agenda, and examines what reform and good governance of the security sector can contribute to the realization of these goals. In other words, it identifies roles and responsibilities for the security sector in implementing this agenda. The final section summarizes how SSR is key to the implementation of the women, peace and security agenda, and how SSR approaches can complement its further development.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Reform, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5873. Begging the Question: What Would a Men, Peace and Security Agenda Look Like?

Author:: Callum Watson
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The starting point for much of the scholarship examining gender in International Relations and security studies can be neatly summarized in a question that Cynthia Enloe asked in 1989, namely “Where are the women?” [1] The following decade was marked by several milestones in the inclusion of women in the international security agenda such as the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action produced at the Fourth World Conference for Women in 1995 and the adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security in 2000. After fifteen years and six further resolutions, academics, practitioners, and policymakers alike have begun to ask a similar question, but this time of the gender equality and women’s empowerment agenda, namely “Where are the men?” In this article, I first examine the historical background of work conducted on men and masculinities in peace and security at the international level. Subsequently, I outline some of the reasons why a “Men, Peace and Security” agenda is yet to clearly develop in international policy circles. Finally, I offer some suggestions on what a Men, Peace and Security agenda would look like by mirroring the four pillars of the Women, Peace and Security framework, namely protection, prevention, participation, and relief and recovery.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Reform, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5874. GAO Report on Combating Terrorism

Author:: Foreign Terrorist Organization Designation Process and U.S. Agency Enforcement Actions
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The Department of State (State) has developed a six-step process for designating foreign terrorist organizations (FTO) that involves other State bureaus and agency partners in the various steps. State’s Bureau of Counterterrorism (CT) leads the designation process for State. CT monitors terrorist activity to identify potential targets for designation and also considers recommendations for potential targets from other State bureaus, federal agencies, and foreign partners. After selecting a target, State follows a six-step process to designate a group as an FTO, including steps to consult with partners and draft supporting documents. During this process, federal agencies and State bureaus, citing law enforcement, diplomatic, or intelligence concerns, can place a “hold” on a potential designation, which, until resolved, prevents the designation of the organization. The number of FTO designations has varied annually since 1997, when 20 FTOs were designated. As of December 31, 2014, 59 organizations were designated as FTOs, with 13 FTO designations occurring between 2012 and 2014.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, War on Terror, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5875. Economics and the Near-Death Experience of Democratic Governance

Author:: June Sekera
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: Non-market public production makes up a quarter to a half or more of all economic activity in advanced democratic nation-states. Yet here in the United States the public economy’s ability to function productively on behalf of the citizenry is seriously imperiled. In this paper I trace the connection between mainstream, market-centric economics and what James Galbraith has called “the collapse of the public governing capacity.” Marketization and its confederate, privatization, have led, sometimes intentionally, to the evisceration of governmental capacity, the downsizing of democracy and the dismantling of traditions of responsible public administration that are grounded in law and the Constitution. Over the last decades, apostles of the market have intruded upon government a pseudo-market with outcomes ranging from the unfortunate to the disastrous. So-called “New Public Management” –“a child of neoclassical economics,” – has colonized and weakened every level of public administration. Hollowed out through the cathartic of a “competition prescription,” the public sector time and again seems to fail us, so systems of performance measurement transplanted from profit-driven business models are being imposed across government, ostensibly to improve results and better supply what the populace wants and needs, but instead often leaving harm in their wake. We find our most basic public services and rights in jeopardy: from clean air and water to unencumbered judicial due process. While government “reinventors” boast about shrinking government, in reality a “submerged state” mushrooms through an explosion of private profit- making contractors and behind the hidden hand of tax expenditures. Yet, as I argue in this paper, there is no viable explanatory theory of the public non-market economy or of production within it, nor any consensus about how to measure public purpose or assess results in the public domain. Instead, a market-centric economics prevails in textbooks, university teaching and public policy, while private, market-mimicking motivations and values displace public purpose in measurement schemes.
Topic:: Governance, Democracy, Public Sector, Private Sector, and Non-Market Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5876. What Others Think of Us: Social Esteem and Participation in Contentious Politics

Author:: Gwyneth McClendon
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Taking a look at recent episodes of social unrest, public protest, and other forms of contentious politics around the globe will tell you a lot about 2014. The year opened with violence in Kiev as thousands took to Independence Square in the Ukrainian capital to remove the Yanukovych government from power. Gay rights activists in St. Petersburg, Russia—but also throughout the world in a display of solidarity—protested the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics in light of Russia’s controversial laws on “non-traditional” sexuality. Beginning in February, a wave of anti-government demonstrations—the largest in Venezuela in over a decade—demanded justice, protection, and economic changes from President Maduro. In August, Governor Jay Nixon declared a curfew and deployed the National Guard in response to growing unrest in the town of Ferguson, Missouri, over the shooting of Michael Brown by a local police officer. In September, thousands took to the streets in Hong Kong to stand for election reform. And in December, the people of New York City shut down the Brooklyn Bridge chanting “I can’t breathe,” in remembrance of Eric Garner.
Topic:: Social Movement, Political Activism, Protests, and LGBT+
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5877. Election Audits: International Principles that Protect Election Integrity

Author:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) and Democracy International (DI) have released a new joint white paper that identifies best practices for election audits in developing democracies. Election audits, which are increasingly used as a means of settling disputes about electoral results, are often conducted as ad hoc processes without clearly defined standards and procedures. In this collaborative effort, IFES and DI put forth recommendations to guide electoral management bodies in preparing for election audits. As the international community continues to support electoral processes in developing democracies around the world, it is critical to come to consensus on standards that should be applied both to assess the need for an election audit and to conduct such an audit. This white paper is the first effort at building that consensus. Elections in developing and post-conflict environments can offer countries a path to democracy and their citizens the prospect of a better life. The peaceful and credible resolution of electoral disputes is of special importance in these contexts, where legal frameworks for elections are sometimes ambiguous, the rule of law may be weak, and allegations of fraud are commonplace and frequently legitimate. Drawing on their extensive involvement in several recent election audits in developing democracies, IFES and DI seek to define the most important considerations for audits, based on the premise that they should be used only in limited circumstances and according to clearly defined and predetermined frameworks. Ad hoc audit processes, conducted absent a clear regulatory framework, can weaken the credibility of election outcomes and undermine the ability of new democracies to provide effective governance and to hold elected officials accountable to their citizens.
Topic:: Elections, Election watch, Conflict, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5878. Gender and Elections: Temporary Special Measures Beyond Quotas

Author:: Renata Segura
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Gender parity in elected office has become a central goal of national gov- ernments and international organizations around the globe. The roots of this demand extend back to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted in 1948, which enshrined “the equal rights of men and women,” including the right to participate in government.1 Delegates to the United Nations World Conference on Women, held in Mexico City in 1975, called on governments to “establish goals, strategies, and timetables” to increase “the number of women in elective and appointive public offices and public functions at all levels.”2 The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), adopted in 1979 by the UN Gen- eral Assembly and ratified by nearly every member state, reiterated that women must be ensured the right “to hold public office and perform all public functions at all levels of government.”
Topic:: Gender Issues, Political Activism, and Elections
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5879. Axes of World Power in the 21st Century: An Analytical Proposal

Author:: Paulo Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The ranking of the hierarchy and grouping of World Powers is not based exclusively on material indicators such as economics, natural resources, territorial extension, population size and military resources. It is necessary to consider the stage in which the transformational process of the post-Cold War International System is, the position in which a power stands, and general and specific historical trends. The present article proposes a classification that identifies the existence of four axes of world power: 1) the Anglo-Saxon military-rentier; 2) the semi-sovereign industriallydeveloped; 3) the semi-peripheral industrially-emergent; and 4) the agrarian, mineral and demographic peripheral.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5880. How do governments respond to food price volatility?

Author:: Per Pinstrup-Andersen
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Large food price fluctuations—caused primarily by extreme weather events, market disruptions, investor behaviour and government policy—began in the world market in 2007 and presented serious challenges for governments, private traders, farmers and consumers. A collaborative project between Cornell University, University of Copenhagen, and UNU-WIDER on the political economy of food price policy studied how selected governments responded to increasing food price volatility, and explains why they responded as they did. The degree to which world market price volatility was transmitted to national and local markets varied greatly among the 16 countries included in the project. This was due to trade policies, differences between import and export parity prices, and several other factors. The low degree to which international prices were reflected in domestic prices in some cases, and the large impact of national factors—such as local weather events, poorly functioning domestic markets, and limited dependence on foreign trade—meant that the behavioural response by governments to the international food crisis tended to be similar to the responses to earlier food price fluctuations caused by national factors. Path dependence was widespread.
Topic:: Government, Markets, Food, and Volatility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5881. Four key areas to improve aid effectiveness

Author:: Tony Addison and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The design and implementation of effective aid policy requires a deeper understanding of the impact of aid and the overall environment in which development aid operates. This policy brief addresses four areas which are key to understanding how aid works: the relationship between aid and economic growth, the effects of aid volatility, the benefits of co-operation, and the macroeconomic management of aid flows.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5882. The Rationale of Political Assassinations

Author:: Arie Perliger
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The current study aims to improve our understanding of the causes and implications of political assassinations by employing quantitative analyses on a comprehensive data set. The findings illustrate the trends that characterize the phenomenon and challenge some of the existing conventions about political assassinations and their impact. This study puts forth the rationale that the logic of political assassinations is different from that of other manifestations of political violence. Hence, it is important to understand the unique factors that may encourage or discourage violent groups or individuals from engaging in political assassinations. Moreover, it seems reasonable to assume that these factors vary among different types of assassinations, because in most cases the characteristics of the targeted individual shape the nature and objectives of the assassination. Indeed, this study establishes that different processes trigger different types of assassinations, and that different types of assassinations generate distinct effects on the political and social arenas.
Topic:: Terrorism, Weapons, and Assassination
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5883. The BIG Picture: Reflections on the Role of International Educational Exchange in Peace and Understanding

Author:: Darla K. Deardorff
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: As humans we’ve always lived in relation to each other – whether in small local groups of hunters/gatherers or in virtual social networks that connect us with strangers around the world. Mobility and exchange have always been part of human history, although much of it relegated to history books and long since forgotten - such as Cahokia, now a historic site in the U.S. state of Illinois but at one time the largest and most sophisticated prehistoric city north of Mexico, whose people maintained vast trade networks throughout the eastern half of the North American continent. In many ways the realities of geo-political developments in current times are simply a variation on past human history, albeit with graver issues that confront human kind. The horrific devastation and realities of twentieth century world wars resulted in the intentional creation of numerous organizations and programs with specific missions to further peace and international understanding in the hope of preventing such horrors in the future. Examples include American Field Service secondary exchanges, started by ambulance drivers in World War I, the International Baccalaureate Organization, the formation of the Institute of International Education after World War I, the formation of the U.S. Peace Corps after World War II, as well as other programs like Fulbright exchanges and later the Chevening Scholarships. In these examples, the underlying assumption was that peace and understanding was not just the purview of nation states (as addressed through the establishment of the League of Nations and later the United Nations) but could also be addressed through “soft power” at the individual level, with the ultimate goal being a more peaceful world. As Wilson notes, there is a dearth of research about whether educational exchange leads to a more peaceful world, ((Iain Wilson, “Exchanges and Peacemaking: Counterfactuals and Unexplored Possibilities,” All Azimuth 4, no. 2 (2015): 5-18.)) particularly given that there are limits to individual-level peacemaking within the broader nation-state system. Nonetheless, there are numerous examples of individuals who have indeed made a difference in the world, including giants such as Martin Luther King Jr., Mother Theresa, or Nelson Mandela, as well as many unsung heroes, and some of the programs mentioned here operate on the premise of the power of the individual to affect change in the world. Since World War II, there has been an increase in educational exchange, particularly at the post-secondary level. The articles in this issue explore various aspects of this: Atkinson’s article looks at lessons learned from educational exchange that occurs within US military institutions,(( Carol Atkinson, “The Role of U.S. Elite Military Schools in Promoting Intercultural Understanding and Democratic Governance,” All Azimuth 4, no. 2 (2015): 19-29.)) Bean’s article highlights the Fulbright program and looks at strategic messaging and communication of such programs,(( Hamilton Bean, “Strategic Communication and the Marketization of Educational Exchange,” All Azimuth 4, no. 2 (2015): 31-44.)) and Wilson’s article addresses this question even more directly in looking at how exchanges can contribute to peacemaking. This commentary outlines some prevailing myths around educational exchange, sets forth three value propositions to inform future international educational exchange and concludes with the bigger picture of the role of educational exchange in promoting peace and international understanding.
Topic:: International Relations, Education, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5884. Strategic Communication and the Marketization of Educational Exchange

Author:: Hamilton Bean
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article describes how the marketization discourse that typifies U.S. strategic communication also influences the meanings and practices of educational exchange. Through an analysis of five presentations and 34 program evaluations provided by the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, this article explores the risks associated with marketization discourse for the development of mutual understanding and peace.
Topic:: Education, Engagement, Discourse, Public Diplomacy, and Marketization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5885. The Role of U.S. Elite Military Schools in Promoting Intercultural Understanding and Democratic Governance

Author:: Carol Atkinson
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Educational exchanges at the U.S. military’s war and staff colleges promote intercultural understanding, international security, and help the United States achieve its foreign policy goals. This article provides an overview of the different types of U.S. military education and training programs that are open to foreign participation, and explores the differences between these and civilian exchange programs. It looks at the impacts of military educational exchange programs on their participants, and also draws lessons learned for the design and administration of exchange programs.
Topic:: Education, Governance, Military Affairs, Democracy, Soft Power, Constructivism, and Socialization
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

5886. Exchanges and Peacemaking: Counterfactuals and Unexplored Possibilities

Author:: Ilain Wilson
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: We may expect international exchange programmes to contribute to peaceful international relations, but how strong is the evidence that they actually do? In addition to the intercultural education discussed elsewhere in this issue, I classify mechanisms by which exchanges might contribute to peace into four categories – signaling, attitude change, network formation and institutional transfer – and assess the evidence that exchanges affect international relations through each of these mechanisms. Despite considerable research there are still important gaps in the evidence, and these gaps may have significant consequences for how we organize exchanges and what kinds of mobility we support.
Topic:: Research, Institutions, Peace, and International Exchange
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5887. Knowledge, Repetition and Power in Ibn al-‘Arabi’s Thought: Some Preliminary Comments on Methodology

Author:: Ali Balcı
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper’s major motivation is to contribute to the debate on how international relations (IR) scholars can develop an alternative method for studying power. A focus on Islamic Sufi thinker Ibn Al-‘Arabi is suggested to demonstrate the early philosophical conceptualization of power relations in a non-Western context. For Ibn Al-‘Arabi, in a world in which unrepeatability is the rule, creating repeatability and fixation through interpretation is certainly done for worldly purposes. His work suggests that any attempt to understand “the cosmos” is an arbitrary intervention, which strictly reflects power relations among actors. Therefore, Ibn Al-‘Arabi’s work can trigger scholarly questions on not only methodology but also on the sociology of the IR discipline and foreign policy in a non-Western context. His arguments can be utilized in critical and poststructuralist conceptions of power in IR.
Topic:: International Relations, Islam, Power, Knowledge Systems, Ibn al-'Arabi, Interpretation, and Delimitation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5888. An Inter-Subsystemic Approach in International Relations

Author:: Haluk Özdemir
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The main point of departure for this article is the incapacity of current international relations theorizing to explain both change and continuity without shifting between levels of analysis. The previous research agenda on system studies was renounced before it realized its potential. The concept of a subsystem has great potential for resolving this challenge. This article argues that the properties of the international system, including anarchy, are not constant, and show variation. To factor in this variation, first we need to identify subsystems (e.g. geographical or functional) that diverge across issue areas and functions. Then we need to look at the interactions between subsystems, which is a neglected aspect of the literature on subsystems. This article contributes to the debate by setting out a new research agenda to study the interactions between subsystems and their effects on the general system; that is, to identify when the system is stable and when it changes. This agenda suggests a particular focus on the inconsistencies, contradictions, and challenges that lie at the intersections of different subsystems.
Topic:: International Relations, Crisis Management, Strategic Culture, and Subsystem
Political Geography:: Turkey and Global Focus

5889. Countering Foreign Terrorist Fighter (FTF) Recruitment Workshop: Counter-Messaging and the Role of Disillusioned Former Fighters

Author:: Hedayah
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: Foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) returning to their home countries from the conflict stimulated by the self-proclaimed “Islamic State” or ad-Dawlah al-Islamiyah fil-Iraq wa asSham (DA’ESH) abroad, are a growing concern for many countries—particularly those in the international counter-DA’ESH coalition. Past conferences and workshops have focused on issues related to FTF rehabilitation and reintegration back into society, but the need for effective counter-narrative communication strategies to prevent the spread of violent extremism and terrorism is now more relevant than ever. The use of interviews, testimonials, and statements of once-inspired FTFs, who now denounce the actions of DA’ESH and other terrorist groups, can be potentially powerful in countering DA’ESH recruitment. This three-day countering violent extremism (CVE) workshop—hosted by Hedayah, the Abu Dhabi-based international CVE center of excellence—convened government and nongovernment CVE practitioners to share communication approaches relevant to countering FTF radicalization and recruitment into DA’ESH, with a particular focus on the role of disillusioned FTFs in creating counter narratives/ messages. Over the course of the three days, participants were asked to apply knowledge gained from the panel sessions to create and develop the content and structure of an alternative or counter-narrative/message that involves actual case studies of individuals who have traveled to join DA’ESH.
Topic:: Terrorism, Recruitment, Foreign Fighters, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

5890. Understanding the Great Recession

Author:: Mario Seccareccia and Marc Lavoie
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Some Fundamental Keynesian and Post-Keynesian Insights, with an Analysis of Possible Mechanisms to Achieve a Sustained Recovery Fears of deflation and long-term stagnation have become more commonplace since the Great Recession. Yet, within the mainstream, economists are divided into two camps: those who see the benefits of downward wage and price adjustment, as a private sector stabilizer, and those who fear deflationary pressures because of their destabilizing consequences. This paper reviews this theoretical literature using a simple “New Consensus” framework of analysis and it also seeks to describe how mainstream and heterodox economists analyzing the consequences of deflationary pressures come to very different conclusions on the nature of private sector stabilizers in a recessionary environment. After reviewing the different perspectives, the paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the experience of both the Great Depression and the Great Recession by looking at the behavior of certain key variables in three countries: Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. The paper concludes that, if it was not for the quick actions of governments in stabilizing the economy through activist macroeconomic policies during the Great Recession, private sector stabilizers were actually less significant during the recent crisis than they were during the 1930s.
Topic:: Economics, Global Recession, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5891. A Theory of How and Why Central-Bank Culture Supports Predatory Risk-Taking at Megabanks

Author:: Edward J. Kane
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper applies Schein’s model of organizational culture to financial firms and their prudential regulators. It identifies a series of hard-to-change cultural norms and assumptions that support go-for-broke risk-taking by megabanks that meets the every-day definition of theft. The problem is not to find new ways to constrain this behavior, but to change the norms that support it by establishing that managers of megabanks owe duties of loyalty, competence, and care directly to taxpayers.
Topic:: Economic Theory, Central Bank, Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5892. Learning, Expectations, and the Financial Instability Hypothesis

Author:: Martin Guzman and Peter Howitt
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes what assumptions on formation of expectations are consistent with Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) and its corollaries. The FIH establishes that financial relations evolve over time turning a stable system into an unstable one. Financial crises would be more likely to occur, and more severe if they occur, the longer the previous crisis recedes into the past. We show that the hypothesis is consistent with assumptions on formation of expectations that imply learning from realization of states and inconsistent with the assumption of full information rational expectations.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Finance, Economic Theory, and Instability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5893. Debt Servicing, Aggregate Consumption, and Growth

Author:: Mark Setterfield and Yun K. Kim
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We develop a neo-Kaleckian growth model that emphasizes the importance of consumption behavior. In our model, workers first make consumption decisions based on their gross income, and then treat debt servicing commitments as a substitute for saving. Workers’ borrowing is induced by their desire to keep up with the consumption standard set by rentiers’ consumption, reflecting an aspect of the relative income hypothesis. As a result of this consumption and debt servicing behavior, consumer debt accumulation and income distribution have effects on aggregate demand, profitability, and economic growth that differ from those found in existing models. We also investigate the financial sustainability of the Golden Age and Neoliberal growth regimes within our framework. It is shown that distributional changes between the Golden Age and the Neoliberal regimes, together with corresponding changes in consumption emulation behavior via expenditure cascades, suffice to make the Neoliberal growth regime unsustainable.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Profit, Sustainability, Models, and Consumption
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5894. Elasticity and Discipline in the Global Swap Network

Author:: Perry Mehrling
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper sketches the outlines of the new international monetary system that has emerged in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. At the center of the system, a network of central bank swaps between the six major central banks serves as an elastic backstop for private foreign exchange operations. Farther out on the periphery, a further network of central bank swaps operates to economize on scarce reserves of the major currencies. Meanwhile, in the private foreign exchange market, basis swaps are emerging as the central location where liquidity is explicitly priced, inside the bounds set by central bank swaps.
Topic:: Markets, Finance, Global Financial Crisis, Central Bank, Banking, and Liquidity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5895. Working Paper Exploring the Concept of Homeostasis and Considering its Implications for Economics

Author:: Antonio Damasio and Hanna Damasio
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The reality of human homeostasis expands the views on preferences and rational choice that are part of traditionally conceived Homo economicus and casts doubts on economic models that depend only on an “invisible hand” mechanism. In its standard format, the concept of homeostasis refers to the ability, present in all living organisms, of continuously maintaining certain functional variables within a range of values compatible with survival. The mechanisms of homeostasis were originally conceived as strictly automatic and as pertaining only to the state of an organism’s internal environment. In keeping with this concept, homeostasis was, and still is, often explained by analogy to a thermostat: upon reaching a previously set temperature, the device commands itself to either suspend the ongoing operation (cooling or heating), or to initiate it, as appropriate. This traditional explanation fails to capture the richness of the concept and the range of circumstances in which it can be applied to living systems. Our goal here is to consider a more comprehensive view of homeostasis. This includes its application to systems in which the presence of conscious and deliberative minds, individually and in social groups, permits the creation of supplementary regulatory mechanisms aimed at achieving balanced and thus survivable life states but more prone to failure than the fully automated mechanisms. We suggest that an economy is an example of one such regulatory mechanism, and that facts regarding human homeostasis may be of value in the study of economic problems. Importantly, the reality of human homeostasis expands the views on preferences and rational choice that are part of traditionally conceived Homo economicus and casts doubts on economic models that depend only on an “invisible hand” mechanism.
Topic:: Economics, Regulation, Models, and Homeostasis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5896. Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect- Foresight Analysis

Author:: Mariana Garcia-Schmidt
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: A prolonged period of extremely low nominal interest rates has not resulted in high inflation. This has led to increased interest in the “Neo-Fisherian” proposition according to which low nominal interest rates may themselves cause inflation to be lower. The fact that standard models of the effects of monetary policy have the property that perfect foresight equilibria in which the nominal interest rate remains low forever necessarily involve low inflation (at least eventually) might seem to support such a view. Here, however, we argue that such a conclusion depends on a misunderstanding of the circumstances under which it makes sense to predict the effects of a monetary policy commitment by calculating the perfect foresight equilibrium consistent with the policy. We propose an explicit cognitive process by which agents may form their expectations of future endogenous variables. Under some circumstances, such as a commitment to follow a Taylor rule, a perfect foresight equilibrium (PFE) can arise as a limiting case of our more general concept of reflective equilibrium, when the process of reflection is pursued sufficiently far. But we show that an announced intention to fix the nominal interest rate for a long enough period of time creates a situation in which reflective equilibrium need not resemble any PFE. In our view, this makes PFE predictions not plausible outcomes in the case of policies of the latter sort. According to the alternative approach that we recommend, a commitment to maintain a low nominal interest rate for longer should always be expansionary and inflationary, rather than causing deflation; but the effects of such “forward guidance” are likely, in the case of a long- horizon commitment, to be much less expansionary or inflationary than the usual PFE analysis would imply.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5897. Tracking Variation in Systemic Risk at US Banks During 1974-2013

Author:: Edward J. Kane, Armen Hovakimian, and Luc Laeven
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper proposes a theoretically based and easy-to-implement way to measure the systemic risk of financial institutions using publicly available accounting and stock market data. The measure models the credit enhancement taxpayers provide to individual banks in the Merton tradition (1974) as a combination put option for the deep tail of bank losses and a knock-in stop-loss call on bank assets. This model expresses the value of taxpayer loss exposure from a string of defaults as the value of this combination option written on the portfolio of industry assets. The exercise price of the call is the face value of the debt of the entire sector. We conceive of an individual bank’s systemic risk as its contribution to the value of this sector- wide option on the financial safety net. To the extent that authorities are slow to see bank losses or reluctant to exercise the call, the government itself becomes a secondary source of systemic risk. We apply our model to quarterly data over the period 1974-2013. The model indicates that systemic risk reached unprecedented highs during the financial crisis years 2008- 2009, and that bank size, leverage, and asset risk are key drivers of systemic risk.
Topic:: Banks, Institutions, Risk, Credit, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5898. Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Author:: M. Hashem Pesaran
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross- sectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965-2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Economic Growth, and Public Debt
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5899. Aggregating Elasticities: Intensive and Extensive Margins of Female Labour Supply

Author:: Orazio P. Attanasio, Peter Levell, Hamish Low, and Virginia Sanchez-Marcos
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: There is a renewed interest in the size of labour supply elasticities and the discrepancy between micro and macro estimates. Recent contributions have stressed the distinction between changes in labour supply at the extensive and the intensive margin. In this paper, we stress the importance of individual heterogeneity and aggregation problems. There is a renewed interest in the size of labour supply elasticities and the discrepancy between micro and macro estimates. Recent contributions have stressed the distinction between changes in labour supply at the extensive and the intensive margin. In this paper, we stress the importance of individual heterogeneity and aggregation problems. At the intensive margins, simple specifications that seem to fit the data give rise to non linear expressions that do not aggregate in a simple fashion. At the extensive margin, aggregate changes in participation are likely to depend on the cross sectional distribution of state variables when a shock hits and, therefore, are likely to be history dependent. We tackle these aggregation issues directly by specifying a life cycle model to explain female labour supply in the US and estimate its various components. We estimate the parameters of different component of the model. Our results indicate that (i) at the intensive margin, Marshallian and Hicksian elasticities are very heterogeneous and, on average, relatively large; (ii) Frisch elasticities are, as implied by the theory, even larger; (iii) aggregate labour supply elasticities seem to vary over the business cycle, being larger during recessions.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Feminism, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5900. Contagion Exposure and Protection Technology

Author:: Deigo Cerdeiro
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: People adopt diverse measures to protect from contagion. I propose a taxonomy of protection technologies, and present a model to study the implications of the technology on the prevalence of infections and on welfare at different levels of exposure. People adopt diverse measures to protect from contagion. I propose a taxonomy of protection technologies, and present a model to study the implications of the technology on the prevalence of infections and on welfare at different levels of exposure. I find that the effect of aggregate exposure on prevalence and on protection inefficiencies depends crucially on the characteristics of the available protection technology. For example, under certain conditions the existence of a vaccine will lead to lower infection rates and smaller welfare costs of decentralization as the society becomes denser. I discuss the implications for disease eradication, the equilibrium consequences of antigenic drift, the desirability of interventions in the absence of universal vaccines, and coordination failures in protection.
Topic:: Health, Science and Technology, Infectious Diseases, and Medicine
Political Geography:: Global Focus

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS