Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus

5701. Currency Crashes in Industrial Countries: Much Ado About Nothing?

Author:
Joseph Gagnon
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Sharp exchange rate depreciations, or currency crashes, are associated with poor economic outcomes in industrial countries only when they are caused by inflationary macroeconomic policies. Moreover, the poor outcomes are attributable to inflationary policies in general and not the currency crashes in particular. On the other hand, crashes caused by rising unemployment or external deficits have always had good economic consequences with stable or falling inflation rates.
Topic:
Economics, Exchange Rate Policy, Inflation, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5702. Border Prices and Retail Prices

Author:
David Berger, Jon Faust, John H. Rogers, and Kai Steverson
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze retail prices and at-the-dock (import) prices of speciÖc items in the Bureau of Labor Statisticsí(BLS) CPI and IPP databases, using both databases simultaneously to identify items that are identical in description at the dock and when sold at retail. This identiÖcation allows us to measure the distribution wedge associated with bringing traded goods from the point of entry into the United States to their retail outlet. We Önd that overall U.S. distribution wedges are 50-70%, around 10 to 20 percentage points higher than that reported in the literature. We discuss the implications of this for measuring the size of the "pure" tradeables sector, exchange rate pass-through, and real exchange rate determination. We Önd that distribution wedges are very stable over time but there is considerable variation across items. There is some variation across the country of origin for the imported item, for our major trading partners, but not as much as the cross-item variation. We also investigate the determinants of distribution wedges, Önding that wedges do not vary systematically with exchange rates, but are related to other features of the micro data.
Topic:
Economics and Exchange Rate Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5703. On the Solvency of Nations: Are Global Imbalances Consistent with Intertemporal Budget Constraints?

Author:
Ceyhun Bora Durdu
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Theory predicts that a nation's stochastic intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied if net foreign assets (NFA) are integrated of any finite order, or if net exports (NX) and NFA satisfy an error- correction specification with a residual integrated of any finite order. We test these conditions using data for 21 industrial and 29 emerging economies for the 1970-2004 period. The results show that, despite the large global imbalances of recent years, NFA and NX positions are consistent with external solvency. Country-specific unit root tests on NFA-GDP ratios suggest that nearly all of them are integrated of order 1. Pooled Mean Group error-correction estimation yields evidence of a statistically significant, negative response of the NX-GDP ratio to the NFA-GDP ratio that is largely homogeneous across countries.
Topic:
Debt, Budget, Global Financial Crisis, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5704. Labor Market Search in Emerging Economies

Author:
Emine Boz, Ceyhun Bora Durdu, and Nan Li
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper shows that labor markets of emerging economies are characterized by large fluctuations in wages while employment fluctuations are subdued. We find that a real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions can account for these aforementioned regularities. Moreover, the joint interaction of countercyclical interest rates and search-matching frictions can go a long way in accounting for higher consumption variability relative to output and countercyclical current account observed in emerging markets. Extending this baseline model to incorporate procyclical variations in the technical efficiency at which matches are generated, the model can match the unemployment variability observed in the data.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5705. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
On 12 May we received the news that David Greenwood had passed away. It was expected in a way, but still it came as a shock. David had been suffering from a disease one can fight for some time, but never beat. Although at the end he was very weak and never left home anymore, David was not supposed to leave Margaret and all of us so soon.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5706. Just peace? Peace building and rule of law in Africa: Lessons for policymakers

Author:
Chandra Lekha Sriram
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
This policy paper encapsulates the key findings of a research project undertaken by the Centre on Human Rights in Conflict (CHRC) of the University of East London School of Law on rule of law in African countries emerging from violent conflict, funded by the British Academy. The CHRC commissioned a range of experts and practitioners from around the world to examine and assess contemporary international efforts at promoting rule of law reform in peacebuilding operations and development assistance. Country studies examined in depth the experiences of a number of African countries— the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Sudan—while thematic studies examined rule of law as part of peacebuilding in comparative perspective, the role of traditional justice, and specific aspects of rule of law in the African context. These studies will be published as a book entitled Just Peace? Peacebuilding and rule of law in Africa.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5707. Trading Justice for Security? UN Anti-terrorism, Due Process Rights and the Role of the Judiciary

Author:
Carmen Draghici
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
The findings reported below emerge from a broader research project exploring human rights in the global war on terror, The Search for a Fair Balance between the Imperative of National Security and the Protection of Human Rights in the Recent Caselaw of the European Courts concerning the ‘Blacklists’ of Alleged Terrorists, a project financed by the Leverhulme Trust and carried out by the author at the Centre on Human Rights in Conflict (CHRC) of the University of East London, School of Law
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5708. Transitional Justice and Peace building: Considerations for policy makers,

Author:
Chandra Lekha Sriram
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
Peacebuilding and transitional justice are both multifaceted processes, which although often treated as if they were in opposition, may actually involve shared goals and activities. This brief outlines several points policymakers should consider when implementing programmes and formulating policies for conflict-affected countries
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5709. A Breakthrough in Justice? Accountability for Post-Election Violence in Kenya,

Author:
Chandra Lekha Sriram
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
Following contested elections in Kenya in December 2007, unrest and violence shook the country in January and February 2008, prompting diplomatic intervention by the international community, most notably by the former United Nations Secretary-General, Kofi Annan. A negotiated solution put in place a power-sharing deal between the two main parties contesting the presidential election: the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the Party of National Unity (PNU)
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5710. Soykırım Suçu ve Devletin Sorumluluğu: Uluslararası Adalet Divanı'nın Bosna-Hersek v. Sırbistan-Karadağ Kararı

Author:
Ozan Değer
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Genocide, as an act and a violation of law, place at the top of the hierarchy of crimes and is qualified as crime of crimes. Essentially, being evaluated within the frame of international law, this crime gradually has been come within the scope of the national law. Either the conception or the crime of genocide was composed because of the massacres executed during the WWII, mainly. The basic legal arrangement about the crime was passed at 9 December 1948 and come into effect at 12 January 1951 named United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Convention is obliged the states on the prevention and the punishment of the crime of genocide. Since international criminal courts/tribunals are restricted by the principle of individual criminal responsibility and the Convention incurs the obligation on states, the violation of the Convention causes the responsibility of states. This article, under the light of the conceptional and legal frame, discusses the obligations and responsibilities incur by the Convention and the dramatic judgment of the ICJ, in short, the place and situation of crime of genocide and state responsibility at the legal texts and international jurisprudences.
Topic:
Genocide and International Law
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5711. Uluslararası İlişkiler Kuramında Yapan-Yapı Sorunu

Author:
Alexander E. Wendt
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory. In this article the nature of structural analysis in each of neorealist and world-system theory are clarified and contrast. The author's primary interest, however, is to critique the conceptions of structural theory found in each of them, and to use this critique to motivate the development of a new approach to structural theorizing about international relations adapted from the work of "structuration theorists" in sociology. In the first section, the author examines the nature of the agent-structure “problem” and briefly identifies the principal kinds of solutions to it. In the second section the author suggests that neorealism and world-system theory embody two of these solutions, the methodological individualist and structuralist ones, respectively. In the third section structurationist approach and its foundations in realist philosophy of science are being defined. In the fourth section, some general epistemological and theoretical implications of structuration theory for the explanation of state action are examined. In the conclusion, the author returns to some implications of scientific realism for social scientific research.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5712. Pandemic Influenza and the Globalization of Public Health

Author:
Karen Eggleston, Qiong Zhang, and Michele Barry
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Globalization means a threat to any of the world's peoples is a threat to all the world's peoples. As American journalist Laurie Garrett says in her famous book The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World out of Balance, none of us can escape from a pandemic in our increasingly globalized world. Most of us are active members in prosperous communities, whose daily lives involve interactions with dozens of people of varied backgrounds; even if we were Robinson Crusoes safely living a life of autarky on an isolated island, a fly or bird could bring an avian or swine flu virus to puncture our well-protected balance.
Topic:
Globalization, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5713. 2008-2009 Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs

Author:
Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Abstract:
WFPG's Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs highlights women shaping foreign policy around the world and the role that they play as leaders, diplomats, and policymakers. The Guide provides an index of prominent women from across the international community, including heads of state and government, government ministers and diplomats, and leaders of international organizations and corporations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, United Nations, Women, Leadership, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5714. Hegel, Dünya Tarihi ve Özgürlük Mücadelesi Olarak Uluslararası İlişkiler

Author:
Faruk Yalvaç
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
This article attempts to evaluate Hegel's theory of international relations in the context of his general philosophy of history. Hegel defines history as a struggle for freedom for mutual recognition. This is true for individuals as well as for states. The struggle for recognition and freedom is a constant feature of social life. Therefore, it would be wrong to interpret Hegel's philosophy as implying that the struggle for freedom has been completed in the modern nation state and that history has come to an end. However, according to Hegel it would be impossible to predict the future shape of the international society and the form which the struggle for freedom will take as “it is just as foolish to fancy that any philosophy can transcend its present world, as that an individual could leap out of his time or jump over Rhodes. ”
Topic:
Political Theory and History
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5715. Financial Globalization and Economic Policies

Author:
Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, M. Ayhan Kose, and Shang-Jin Wei
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
We review the large literature on various economic policies that could help developing economies effectively manage the process of financial globalization. Our central findings indicate that policies promoting financial sector development, institutional quality and trade openness appear to help developing countries derive the benefits of globalization. Similarly, sound macroeconomic policies are an important prerequisite for ensuring that financial integration is beneficial. However, our analysis also suggests that the relationship between financial integration and economic policies is a complex one and that there are unavoidable tensions inherent in evaluating the risks and benefits associated with financial globalization. In light of these tensions, structural and macroeconomic policies often need to be tailored to take into account country specific circumstances to improve the risk-benefit tradeoffs of financial integration. Ultimately, it is essential to see financial integration not just as an isolated policy goal but as part of a broader package of reforms and supportive macroeconomic policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5716. What are We Fighting For? Western Civilization, American Identity, and U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
James Kurth
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Fifteen years ago, Samuel P. Huntington published, first as an article (“The Real Clash of Civilizations?” Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993) and then as a book (The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Simon and Schuster, 1996), his famous argument about the clash of civilizations. The clash that he was referring to was the clash between the West—Western civilization—and the rest. Of the rest, he considered the greatest challenges to the West would come from the Islamic civilization and the Sinic, or Confucian, civilization. These challenges would be very different because these civilizations were very different. But together they could become a dynamic duo that might raise very serious challenges to the West.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5717. Private Military and Security Companies: Misconceptions, Re-Conceptualisations and Regulation [PDF 368.97KB] Carlos Ortiz

Author:
Carlos Ortiz
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
This paper argues the relevance of the notion of Security Partnerships for the understanding of the role Private Military Companies (PMCs) play in state defence and security. Security Partnerships imply the forging of close and formal patterns of collaboration between governments and PMCs and defence contractors. The notion facilitates an appreciation of the diverse tasks PMCs are contracted to satisfy, the extent to which these tasks permeate defence and security strategies, and the future of the model in light of the global financial downturn. In addition, this paper uses this research to highlight certain limitations of the new proposal for the regulation of PMCs put forward by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in April 2009.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Regulation, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5718. State-Sponsored Homophobia (2009)

Author:
Daniel Ottosson
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ILGA World (International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association)
Abstract:
Every year, ILGA World publishes its State-Sponsored Homophobia report, a world survey of sexual orientation laws. Since its first edition, back in 2006, ILGA World’s State-Sponsored Homophobia has been a fundamental resource for those interested in accessing the core information on legislation affecting people on the basis of their sexual orientation. Not only human rights defenders, but also civil society organisations, governmental and United Nations agencies, allies and media worldwide value the publication as one of the main sources of information on the issue. The publication is accompanied by a series of maps and charts illustrating where criminalisation, protection and recognition laws exist.
Topic:
Human Rights, Law, LGBT+, and Homophobia
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5719. The Role of Human Rights in Ensuring Universal Access to HIV Testing and Counselling

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Recent years have seen a significant expansion of HIV testing and counselling, a necessary pre-condition for achieving the goal of universal access to comprehensive HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment, care, and support. However, HIV testing and counselling is not implemented fully and correctly unless human rights approaches are integrated into all aspects of its delivery. This includes not only respect for the "three C's" of pre-test information or counselling and post-test counselling, informed and voluntary consent to testing, and confidentiality of test results, but also ensuring an enabling environment that protects people from discrimination, violence, abandonment, ostracism, and other potential negative consequences of a positive test result. On October 12-13, the Open Society Public Health Program, the Secretariat of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS Secretariat), and the World Health Organization cosponsored the meeting, “The Role of Human Rights in Ensuring Universal Access to HIV Testing and Counselling." The purpose of the meeting was to bridge the gap between international guidance on HIV testing and counselling and the implementation of this guidance. The meeting participants represented a wide variety of constituencies, including people living with and affected by HIV, implementers of HIV testing programs, donors and representatives of multilateral agencies, researchers, and human rights advocates. They sought to reach a consensus on concrete strategies and specific activities to overcome two types of barriers to ensuring human rights in the practice of HIV testing and counselling: political/systemic barriers and technical barriers.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, Health, Human Rights, Health Care Policy, Multilateralism, Advocacy, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5720. At What Cost? HIV and Human Rights Consequences of the Global "War on Drugs"

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
A decade after governments worldwide pledged to achieve a "drug-free world," there is little evidence that the supply or demand of illicit drugs has been reduced. Instead, aggressive drug control policies have led to increased incarceration for minor offenses, human rights violations, and disease. This book examines the descent of the global war on drugs into a war on people who use drugs. From Puerto Rico to Phnom Penh, Manipur to Moscow, the scars of this war are carried on the bodies and minds of drug users, their families, and the health and service providers who work with them.
Topic:
Health, War on Drugs, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5721. Patterns of Implementation: Do Listing Practices Impede Compliance with UN Sanctions? A Critical Assessment

Author:
David Cortright
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
The salience of the due process issue varies considerably among states. Concerns are highest among European states that are constitutionally and politically bound to the enforcement of rigorous human rights standards. Many of these states also have concerns about broader UN reform issues related to the representativeness of the Security Council and the legitimacy of its working methods. For other states the controversy over due process reinforces a general skepticism about sanctions, and may serve as an excuse for inaction.
Topic:
United Nations, Sanctions, Policy Implementation, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

5722. Human Rights and Targeted Sanctions: An Action Agenda for Strengthening Due Process Procedures

Author:
David Cortright, George A. Lopez, Linda Gerber-Stellingwerf, Eliot Fackler, Sarah Persinger, and Joshua Weaver
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
International sanctions intended to counter terrorism have been criticized for violating human rights and failing to comply with due process legal standards. Blacklisting practices have impeded the work of certain civil society groups and charities. The resulting controversy has eroded the credibility of UN Security Council counterterrorism sanctions and made it more difficult for some states and regional organizations to comply with these measures. Action is urgently needed to reform current listing and delisting procedures through a strengthening of due process procedures.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, Sanctions, Counter-terrorism, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5723. Democratization and Civil War

Author:
Jack Snyder and Edward Mansfield
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Many observers have argued that promoting democracy abroad promotes peace. Mature, stable democracies have not fought wars against each other, and they rarely suffer from civil wars. But the path to the democratic peace is not always smooth. We argue that during the initial phase of a democratic transition, states face a heightened risk of civil war. When authoritarian regimes break down, a panoply of elite factions and popular groups jockey for power in a setting in which repressive state authority has been weakened, yet democratic institutions are insufficiently developed to take their place. This can lead to civil war through the lack of institutional means to regulate or repress factional strife. We test this argument by conducting a statistical analysis. The results indicate that countries in the initial stages of democratization are more than twice as likely to experience civil war as are stable regimes or regimes undergoing a transition to autocracy. Then we discuss the causal mechanisms linking democratization and civil war in cases drawn from the statistical analysis. These findings underscore the risks in trying to promote peace through democratization in countries that lack the institutions to contain factional and communal conflicts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5724. Globalization and the Great Divergence: Terms of Trade Booms and Volatility in the Poor Periphery 1782-1913

Author:
Jeffrey G. Williamson
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
W. Arthur Lewis argued that a new international economic order emerged between 1870 and 1913, and that global terms of trade forces produced rising primary product specialization and de-industrialization in the poor periphery. More recently, modern economists argue that volatility reduces growth in the poor periphery. This paper assess these de-industrialization and volatility forces between 1782 and 1913 during the Great Divergence. First, it argues that the new economic order had been firmly established by 1870, and that the transition took place in the century before, not after. Second, based on econometric evidence from 1870-1939, we know that while a terms of trade improvement raised long run growth in the rich core, it did not do so in the poor periphery. Given that the secular terms of trade boom in the poor periphery was much bigger over the century before 1870 than after, it seems plausible to infer that it might help explain the great 19th century divergence between core and periphery. Third, the boom and its de-industrialization impact was only part of the story; growth-reducing terms of trade volatility was the other. Between 1820 and 1870, terms of trade volatility was much greater in the poor periphery than the core. It was still very big after 1870, certainly far bigger than in the core. Based on econometric evidence from 1870-2000, we know that terms of trade volatility lowers long run growth in the poor periphery, and that the negative impact is big. Given that terms of trade volatility in the poor periphery was even bigger during the century before 1870, it seems plausible to infer that it also helps explain the great 19th century divergence between core and periphery.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5725. Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-traditional Export Crops in Guatemala

Author:
Paul Winters, Angeli Kirk, Benjamim Davis, and Calogero Carletto
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
As developing countries continue on the path of economic liberalization, there is a compelling need to ensure that the benefits of globalization reach poor rural communities. Increased commercialization of agriculture and diversification into nontraditional exports (NTXs) is one strategy that has often been advocated as a way for developing countries to use their comparative advantage in lower labor costs and to achieve growth in the agricultural sector. Given the predominantly rural nature of most developing countries and the preponderance of poor people in these areas, high-value agricultural production is considered the ideal mechanism to extend the benefits of globalization directly to the rural poor:1 Allowing poor farmers to shift into the export sector and take advantage of internationally demand driven prices that are higher relative to traditional crops may reduce inequality while fostering overall economic growth (Nissanke and Thorbecke 2007).
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5726. Minimum Wages, Globalization, and Poverty in Honduras

Author:
T. H. Gindling and Katherine Terrell
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
To be competitive in the global economy, some argue that Latin American countries need to reduce or eliminate labor market regulations such as minimum wage legislation because they constrain job creation and hence increase poverty. On the other hand, minimum wage increases can have a direct positive impact on family income and may therefore help to reduce poverty. We take advantage of a complex minimum wage system in a poor country that has been exposed to the forces of globalization to test whether minimum wages are an effective poverty reduction tool in this environment. We find that minimum wage increases in Honduras reduce extreme poverty, with an elasticity of -0.18, and all poverty, with an elasticity of -0.10 (using the national poverty lines). These results are driven entirely by the effect on workers in large private sector firms, where minimum wage legislation is enforced. Increases in the minimum do not affect the incidence of poverty in sectors where minimum wages are not enforced (small firms) or do not apply (self-employed and public sector).
Topic:
Globalization, Political Economy, Poverty, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5727. Globalization, American Power, and International Security

Author:
Jonathan Kirshner
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Abstract:
What are the consequences of globalization for international conflict in general and American power in particular? While there is an enormous and still burgeoning literature on globalization, the answer to this crucial question remains unclear.' But failure to account for the influence of globalization will make it increasingly difficult to understand changes in the balance of power, prospects for war, and strategic choices embraced by states. Switching from polo on horseback to water polo does not change the principals or their objectives, but the contest is still profoundly transformed by the change in setting. Some players, for example, might have been much better riders than they are swimmers.
Topic:
Globalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5728. Friends or Foes? The Stock Price Impact of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments and the Price of Keeping Secrets

Author:
Jason Kotter and Uger Lel
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the stock price impact of 163 announcements of Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) investments. We document an average positive risk-adjusted return of 2.1 percent for target firms during two days surrounding SWF acquisition announcements. The announcement effect is both statistically and economically significant. A multivariate analysis shows that the degree of transparency of SWF activities is an important determinant of the market reaction, and both the SWF and the existing shareholders of the target firm benefit from improved SWF disclosure. In addition, target firms’ profitability, growth, and governance do not change significantly in the three-year period following the SWF investment relative to a control sample. These results are robust to a battery of tests. Overall, our findings suggest that SWF investments convey a positive signal to market participants about the target firm, increased SWF transparency
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, Financial Markets, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5729. Optimal Monetary Policy with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation Rates

Author:
Martin Bodenstein, Christopher J. Erceg, and Luca Guerrieri
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well-approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap, but also by a wide array of “dual mandate” policies that are not overly aggressive in stabilizing core inflation. Finally, policies that react to a forecast of headline inflation following a temporary energy shock imply markedly different effects than policies that react to a forecast of core, with the former inducing greater volatility in core inflation and the output gap.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Inflation, and Supply
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5730. The Macroeconomic Effects of External Pressures on Monetary Policy

Author:
Davide Debortoli and Ricardo Nunes
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Central banks, whether independent or not, may occasionally be subject to external pressures to change policy objectives. We analyze the optimal response of central banks to such pressures and the resulting macroeconomic consequences. We consider several alternative scenarios regarding policy ob- jectives, the degree of commitment and the timing of external pressures. The possibility to adopt “more liberal” objectives in the future increases current inflation through an accommodation effect. Simultaneously, the central bank tries to anchor inflation by promising to be even “more conservative” in the future. The immediate effect is an output contraction, the opposite of what the pressures to adopt “more liberal” objectives may be aiming. We also discuss the opposite case, where objectives may become “more conservative” in the future, which may be the relevant case for countries considering the adoption of inflation targeting.
Topic:
Finance, Banks, Inflation, and Central Bank
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5731. Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Generalization

Author:
James M. Nason and John H. Rogers
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than 20 years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out of sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard-present value model (PVM) because it predicts random walk exchange rate dynamics if the discount factor approaches one and fundamentals have a unit root. This paper generalizes the Engel and West (EW) hypothesis to the larger class of open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The EW hypothesis is shown to hold for a canonical open economy DSGE model. We show that all the predictions of the standard-PVM carry over to the DSGE-PVM. The DSGE-PVM also yields an unobserved components (UC) models that we estimate using Bayesian methods and a quarterly Canadian--U.S. sample. Bayesian model evaluation reveals that the data support a UC model that calibrates the discount factor to one implying the Canadian dollar--U.S. dollar exchange rate is a random walk dominated by permanent cross-country monetary and productivity shocks.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, and Exchange Rate Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5732. Expected Consumption Growth from Cross-Country Surveys: Implications for Assessing International Capital Markets

Author:
Charles Engel and John H. Rogers
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Survey data show that the expected growth rates of consumption across countries vary widely and are not highly correlated. This data contradicts the simplest of open-economy models in which there is a freely traded non- state-contingent bond and purchasing power parity holds. We explore two alternative explanations for the finding: that households in each country in effect face different ex ante real interest rates or that there are significant credit constraints, so that expected consumption growth rates are driven largely by expected income growth. The empirical evidence strongly supports the latter hypothesis. These findings challenge the modeling of consumption that is at the heart of many, if not most, macroeconomic models.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Interest Rates, and Credit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5733. Soft Information in Earnings Announcements: News or Noise?

Author:
Elizabeth Demers and Clara Vega
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines whether the “soft” information contained in the text of management’s quarterly earnings press releases is incrementally informative over the company’s reported “hard” earnings news. We use Diction, a textual-analysis program, to extract various dimensions of managerial net optimism from more than 20,000 corporate earnings announcements over the period 1998 to 2006 and document that unanticipated net optimism in managers’ language affects announcement period abnormal returns and predicts post- earnings announcement drift. We find that it takes longer for the market to understand the implications of soft information than those of hard information. We also find that the market response varies by firm size, turnover, media and analyst coverage, and the extent to which the standard accounting model captures the underlying economics of the firm. We also show that the second moment of soft information, the level of certainty in the text, is an important determinant of contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility, and it predicts future idiosyncratic volatility.
Topic:
Economics and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5734. Testing the Expectations Hypothesis When Interest Rates are Near Integrated

Author:
Meredith Beechey, Erik Hjalmarsson, and Par Osterholm
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Nominal interest rates are unlikely to be generated by unit-root processes. Using data on short and long interest rates from eight developed and six emerging economies, we test the expectations hypothesis using cointegration methods under the assumption that interest rates are near integrated. If the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected, we then test whether the estimated cointegrating vector is consistent with that suggested by the expectations hypothesis. The results show support for cointegration in ten of the fourteen countries we consider, and the cointegrating vector is similar across countries. However, the parameters di§er from those suggested by theory. We relate our Öndings to existing literature on the failure of the expectations hypothesis and to the role of term premia.
Topic:
Economics and Interest Rates
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5735. Home Computers and Educational Outcomes: Evidence from the NLSY97 and CPS

Author:
Daniel O. Beltran, Kuntal K Das, and Robert W. Fairlie
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Although computers are universal in the classroom, nearly twenty million children in the United States do not have computers in their homes. Surprisingly, only a few previous studies explore the role of home computers in the educational process. Home computers might be very useful for completing school assignments, but they might also represent a distraction for teenagers. We use several identification strategies and panel data from the two main U.S. datasets that include recent information on computer ownership among children -- the 2000-2003 CPS Computer and Internet Use Supplements (CIUS) matched to the CPS Basic Monthly Files and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 -- to explore the causal relationship between computer ownership and high school graduation and other educational outcomes. Teenagers who have access to home computers are 6 to 8 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school than teenagers who do not have home computers after controlling for individual, parental, and family characteristics. We generally find evidence of positive relationships between home computers and educational outcomes using several identification strategies, including controlling for typically unobservable home environment and extracurricular activities in the NLSY97, fixed effects models, instrumental variables, and including future computer ownership and falsification tests. Home computers may increase high school graduation by reducing non-productive activities, such as truancy and crime, among children in addition to making it easier to complete school assignments.
Topic:
Crime, Education, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5736. A Note on Mundell-Fleming and Developing Countries

Author:
John Weeks
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper inspects the statement found in macroeconomic text books that under a flexible exchange rate regime with perfectly elastic capital flows monetary policy is effective and fiscal policy is not. The logical validity of the statement requires that the domestic price level effect of devaluation be ignored. The price level effect is noted in some textbooks, but not analysed. When it is subjected to a rigorous analysis, the interaction between exchange rate changes and domestic price level changes render the standard statement false. The logically correct statement would be, under a flexible exchange rate regime with perfectly elastic capital flows the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the values of the import share and the sum of the trade elasticities. Monetary policy will be more effective than fiscal policy if and only if the sum of the trade elasticities exceeds the import share. Inspection of data from developing countries indicates a low effectiveness of monetary policy under flexible exchange rates. In the more general case of less than perfectly elastic capital flows the conditions for monetary policy to be more effective than fiscal policy are even more restrictive. Use of empirical evidence on trade shares and interest rate differentials suggest that for most countries fiscal policy would prove more effective than monetary policy under a flexible exchange rate regime. In any case, the general theoretical assertion that monetary policy is more effective is incorrect.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Developing World, Capital Flows, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5737. Niebyl, Money and Development

Author:
Daniela Tavasci, Jan Toporowski, and Radha Upadhyaya
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines Karl Niebyl’s critique of monetary theory against the typology of equilibrium, reflective and critical theories of money. It argues that despite fundamental criticisms of monetary theory, his analysis of money in capitalist development is essentially a reflective one. The paper goes on to show how the development of the capitalist firm in the twentieth century may give a more critical, disequilibrium, role to money and finance. The introduction presents a categorisation of theories of money. The second section shows the reflective nature of Niebyl’s theory of money comparing it to more recent disequilibrium or critical theories. As Niebyl’s work focuses to the changing function of money with the emergence of industrial capitalism, the next section deals with possible lessons for understanding money in a context of capitalist development. The fourth section reflects on Niebyl’s considerations on methodology.
Topic:
Development, Monetary Policy, Capitalism, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5738. The Economics and Culture of Financialisation

Author:
Jan Toporowski
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines some of the social, economic and political consequences of financial inflation for the activities of companies and the operations in debt markets of an increasingly financial middle class. In this paper ‘financialisation’ is broadly defined as the inflation of capital markets. The first section of the paper explains the Kalecki-Steindl theory of enforced company indebtedness in a middle-class society. The second section of the paper shows how financial inflation makes companies over- capitalised, resulting in a decline in the trend of long-term investment. The third section shows how forced company indebtedness is modified when the middle classes start to operate in inflating asset markets. A conclusion sketches out some of the consequences of this financialisation for politics, social policy, and moral and cultural attitudes.
Topic:
Culture, Finance, Social Policy, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5739. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
In the second half of 2007 we decided to take the Starlink programme further east and got in touch with the Netherlands Embassy in Astana to investigate possibilities in Kazakhstan. During a fact-finding mission in November 2007 we found that there was a clear need to develop capacity for democratic governance in the security sector of Kazakhstan. The country is engaged in a process of reform that, if successful, will improve oversight of the security agencies, enable the country to fulfil the commitments it undertook in its NATO Individual Partnership Action Plan of 2006, and enhance Kazakhstan’s standing at the OSCE. Kazakhstan will hold the presidency of the OSCE in 2010. It is obvious that Kazakhstan has put in place several of the laws and institutions required for democratic oversight of the security sector, and others are likely to follow. However, Kazakhstan still has some way to go to foster a culture of accountability. Here Starlink training courses will be helpful. The Starlink programme has been included in Kazakhstan’s Individual Partnership Action Plan.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5740. Security Matters

Author:
Centre for European Security Studies
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
CESS is deeply involved in developing and delivering training courses for Security Sector Reform (SSR). In this issue, we will report on our Starlink programme for training development, which has completed its activities in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Starlink is now being introduced in Kazakhstan, and plans are underway to take it to the Western Balkans. Starlink is supported by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the OSCE. We will also discuss the work CESS has been doing to teach the OECD DAC approach to SSR. In a thought-provoking commentary article Kars de Bruynequestions the conventional intepretation of the spring 2007 crisis in Turkey.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5741. In Search of The 21st Century Developmental State

Author:
Peter B. Evans
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
What role for the developmental state in the 21st century? What state structures and political institutions will best equip nations trying to enter the ranks of "developed" countries? I offer two interconnected propositions. The first stresses continuity: the "developmental state" will continue to play a crucial a role in economic growth and social transformation in the 21st century, just as it did in the latter half of the 20th century. The second is more radical: successful 21st century developmental states will have to depart fundamentally from existing models of the developmental state in order to achieve success. Growth strategies focused primarily on traditional capital accumulation will no longer suffice. State-society ties can no longer be focused narrowly on relations with capitalist elites.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Capitalism, International Development, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5742. States and Rules, Norms and Interests

Author:
Ian Hurd
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
The conventional separation in IR theory between instrumental behavior and legitimated norms as explanations for state action has discouraged the study of phenomena that include both. As a result important practices including hypocrisy, norm violation, and the strategic reinterpretation of rules and laws are under-examined. The source of the problem is the idea of 'internalization' of external rules and norms, which has come to define the distinction between rationalism and constructivism in IR, and between the logics of appropriateness and of consequences. I argue that internalization is problematic for empirical research in IR because it eliminates the possibility of strategic thinking by states in relation to international norms and rules. It leaves no room for instrumentalism around norms and so cannot account for norm violation, the strategic manipulation of norms, and the productive process of norm innovation. This is a problem equally for rationalism and constructivism. I argue for an alternative model that focuses on the practice of invoking international norms and rules and show that this approach allows new insight into the agent-structure problem, the relation between states and rules in world politics, and the relation between rationalism and constructivism.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, Sovereignty, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5743. The Shape of the World to Come

Author:
Laurent Cohen-Tanugi
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
Contrary to an optimistic vision of a world "flattened" by the virtues of globalization, the sustainability and positive outcomes of economic and political homogenization are far from guaranteed. For better and for worse, globalization has become the most powerful force shaping the world's geopolitical landscape, whether it has meant integration or fragmentation, peace or war. The future partly depends on how new economic giants such as China, India, and others make use of their power. It also depends on how well Western democracies can preserve their tenuous hold on leadership, cohesion, and the pursuit of the common good. Offering the most comprehensive analysis of world politics to date, Laurent Cohen-Tanugi takes on globalization's cheerleaders and detractors, who, in their narrow focus, have failed to recognize the full extent to which globalization has become a geopolitical phenomenon. Offering an interpretative framework for thought and action, Cohen-Tanugi suggests how we should approach our new "multipolar" world—a world that is anything but the balanced and harmonious system many welcomed as a desirable alternative to the "American Empire."
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus
Publication Identifier:
9780231517904
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

5744. Bringing Ideas and Discourse Back into The Explanation of Change in Varieties of Capitalism and Welfare States

Author:
Vivien A. Schmidt
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
To explain change in the varieties of capitalism and welfare states, a 'discursive institutionalist' approach focused on ideas and discourse is a necessary complement to older 'new institutionalist' approaches. Historical institutionalist approaches have difficulty explaining change, tend to be static and equilibrium-focused, and even where they get beyond this through accounts of incremental change, these are more descriptive than they are explanatory of change. The turn to rational choice institutionalist approaches for agency and 'micro-foundations' to historical institutionalist 'macropatterns' also does not solve the problems of historical institutionalism. A turn to discursive institutionalism could. Using examples of reforms in national political economies and welfare states in 'liberal', 'coordinated',and'state-influenced' market economies, the paper illustrates how ideas and discourse help explain the dynamics of change (and continuity).
Topic:
Political Economy, Capitalism, and Welfare State
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5745. Critical Approaches and the Problem of Social Construction: Reassessing the Legacy of the Agent/Structure Debate in IR

Author:
Samuel Knafo
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
Conceptualizing the process of social change in IR has proved more elusive than initially thought. If the notion of agency that was proposed to capture this moment gained great saliency in the field, it has had surprisingly limited analytical effects on the discipline of IR. Hence, many can agree that social actors have agency, but very few have managed to set up an agenda that uses this notion in productive ways. Discussions about agency often remain meta-theoretical, and have had arguably little effect on the concrete studies in the field. This paper argues that debates over agency have failed to produce a satisfactory response to the question of how critical theories should approach social construction largely because they have missed what is ultimately at stake in thinking about social change and agency. Seeking in the latter an alternative form of causality that could be distinguished from structural reproduction, they created a dualism that was bound to be unproductive. Adopting a different perspective, this article revisits the structure agency debate with the aim of demonstrating that the notion of agency is fundamental to a critical perspective on social construction. It argues that introducing agency within our epistemological framework does not offer a solution for understanding social construction, but rather helps us frame the problematic of social construction itself in ways that pushes critical theory away from the reifying glance of positivism. More specifically, it uses agency as a means to problematise power as practice, arguing that, too often, critical theories take this aspect for granted. As a result they miss what exactly is being negotiated in struggles over power.
Topic:
International Relations, Social Change, and Critical Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5746. State-Sponsored Homophobia (2008)

Author:
Daniel Ottosson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ILGA World (International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association)
Abstract:
Every year, ILGA World publishes its State-Sponsored Homophobia report, a world survey of sexual orientation laws. Since its first edition, back in 2006, ILGA World’s State-Sponsored Homophobia has been a fundamental resource for those interested in accessing the core information on legislation affecting people on the basis of their sexual orientation. Not only human rights defenders, but also civil society organisations, governmental and United Nations agencies, allies and media worldwide value the publication as one of the main sources of information on the issue. The publication is accompanied by a series of maps and charts illustrating where criminalisation, protection and recognition laws exist.
Topic:
Human Rights, Law, LGBT+, and Homophobia
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5747. Financial Liberalisation, Bureaucratic Corruption and Economic Development

Author:
Keith Blackburn and Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We study the e§ect of international Önancial integration on economic development when the quality of governance may be compromised by corruption. Our analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small economy in which growth is driven by capital accumulation and public policy is administered by governmentappointed bureaucrats. Corruption may arise due to the opportunity for bureaucrats to embezzle public funds, an opportunity that is made more attractive by Önancial liberalisation which, at the same time, raises e¢ ciency in capital production. Our main results may be summarised as follows: (1) corruption is always bad for economic development, but its e§ect is worse if the economy is open than if it is closed; (2) the incidence of corruption may, itself, be a§ected by both the development and openness of the economy; (3) Önancial liberalisation is good for development when governance is good, but may be bad for development when governance is bad; and (4) corruption and poverty may co-exist as permanent, rather than just transitory, Öxtures of an economy.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Finance, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5748. A note on the U-shaped relationship between political competition and economic freedom

Author:
Antonio Saravia
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We investigate a recent political theory of institutional change according to which institutions of economic freedom are more likely to be adopted at the extreme cases of strong and weak political competition than at cases in between. We find that such a U-shaped relationship is verified when controlling for other political variables and past economic growth, but disappears when controlling for the initial level of development. In this case, the relationship between political competition and the adoption of institutions of economic freedom appears to be positive and linear as suggested by the political principal-agent paradigm.
Topic:
Politics, Institutions, Competition, and Economic Freedom
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5749. Good and Bad News on Global Development

Author:
Dani Rodrik
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Istart with some good news, because there is, I think, a lot of good news in the world of development. Then I want to present what I think is essentially a paradox. The paradox, to put it very crudely, is that while economic development is working, development policy is not. Let me start with the good news. If you look at the total number of people who live on below $1 a day and look at the trend, between 1981 and 2001, what you see is basically that there are now roughly 400 million fewer people who live below the $1-a-day line. So there actually has been not just a relative reduction in the number of the absolute poor; there has actually been an absolute reduction in the number of the absolute poor. This is in a period when, of course, the population of the developing world has increased quite significantly. In terms of the somewhat higher poverty line, which is the $2-a-day line, the number of poor people below that threshold has actually increased somewhat, but it is still the case that relative to the population of the developing world, it has come down. That is basically good news. In this period, there has been, in fact, significant poverty reduction around the world. But if you look at where that has come from, it is also the case that much of it has actu- ally been localized. China alone accounts for the full 400 million-person reduction in absolute poverty when measured by the $1-a-day line. If you take China out, basically, in the rest of the world, some countries have had an increased number of poor people, others have had a decline.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Inequality, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5750. Insights Into Two American Empires

Author:
MIT Center for International Studies
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
In Escape from Empire: The Developing World ’s Journey through Heaven and Hell (MIT Press, 2007), Alice Amsden tartly takes on much of the conventional wisdom about the global economy. In this interview, she briefly touches on a few of the book’s provocative themes.
Topic:
Economics, Imperialism, International Cooperation, and Empire
Political Geography:
Global Focus